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9902. A Gateway to Africa? Economic Opportunities in Israel-Morocco Relations
- Author:
- Morr Link
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Since renewing diplomatic relations between Jerusalem and Rabat, the scope of trade indeed has grown between the two countries, but the full potential still has not been realized. How can the economic cooperation be improved, which also entails many policy opportunities for both Israel and Morocco?
- Topic:
- Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Economic Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, Israel, and Morocco
9903. High-Power Laser Applications on the Future Battlefield
- Author:
- Yehoshua Kalisky
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- “Within a year we will operate a laser interception system” – Thus the Prime Minister Bennett declared at the yearly conference of the INSS. What are the differences between the various laser systems and what are the advantages and disadvantages of these types of air defense systems?
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Military Strategy, Innovation, and Laser Technology
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
9904. Undocumented Palestinian workers in Israel: Did the Israeli COVID-19 Policy Boost their Employment?
- Author:
- Haggy Etkes and Wifag Adnan
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Three of the terrorist attacks that occurred in recent weeks in Israel were carried out by undocumented workers – a phenomenon that has grown due to the COVID-19 pandemic. How did the pandemic lead to a rise in the number of undocumented workers and how can the phenomenon be reduced?
- Topic:
- Labor Issues, Pandemic, COVID-19, Migrant Workers, and Undocumented Population
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
9905. Demonstrations in Iran in Protest of the Sharp Rise in Prices of Basic Goods
- Author:
- Raz Zimmt
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- At least three people were killed and dozens were injured and arrested in protests that erupted in southwestern Iran due to a controversial move by the government in Tehran. Until now, the scope of the protest is very limited and does not threaten the regime’s stability, but it is additional evidence of the severe economic crisis, which can be added to the long list of challenges facing President Raisi
- Topic:
- Economics, Protests, Demonstrations, and Standard of Living
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
9906. Iraq-Gulf Relations: An Anchor for Stability and Restraining Iranian Involvement in the Region?
- Author:
- Yoel Guzansky and Yaron Schneider
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- While weathering a political crisis, Iraq is now at a crossroads regarding the future of the state. In tandem, neighboring Sunni states, led by Saudi Arabia, are moving closer to Baghdad. What are the reasons for this development, and how is it likely to affect the Middle East, Iran’s expansion in the area, and Israel?
- Topic:
- Economics, International Cooperation, Economic Stability, and Regional Power
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Gulf Nations
9907. The Struggle for De Facto Sovereignty over the Temple Mount
- Author:
- Udi Dekel
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- 19 Israelis were murdered in the terrorist attacks that occurred around the month of Ramadan, and once again al-Aqsa and the Temple Mount were the cause inciting the terrorists. Israel has yet to internalize that a campaign is underway for sovereignty over al-Aqsa. How should Israel act in advance of what are expected to be highly charged weeks ahead?
- Topic:
- Religion, Sovereignty, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Jerusalem
9908. The Upcoming Elections in Lebanon: Dubious Possibilities for Change
- Author:
- Orna Mizrahi and Orit Perlov
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- For the first time since the public protests and collapse of the economy, Lebanon will hold elections for its 128 parliamentary seats. Yet despite the desire for change in the political system and the concerns of Hezbollah and its allies as to their standing, it is doubtful whether the elections will lead to significant change in the Land of the Cedars
- Topic:
- Politics, Elections, Leadership, and State Building
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
9909. One Month after the Start of the Escalation: The Fog Dissipates
- Author:
- Yohanan Tzoreff
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- The escalation that began even before Ramadan has exacted a painful toll in Israel, and Hamas has indeed earned some achievements and improved its status. However, thus far events have not led to the organization’s desired outcome: mass demonstrations on several fronts, with the participation of Arabs from Israel, East Jerusalem, and the West Bank. Does Israel recognize the new challenges that Hamas attempts to pose? And what can be done now so that next year, when once again Passover and Ramadan coincide, this escalation does not recur?
- Topic:
- Territorial Disputes, Conflict, Hamas, and Escalation
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
9910. The War in Ukraine: More Western Aid and Fear of Escalation
- Author:
- Eldad Shavit and Shimon Stein
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- The United States and other NATO countries have thus far not deviated from their policy regarding the war in Eastern Europe – military and economic assistance, with no boots on the ground. Yet the more the war continues, and while there is a chance of significant escalation, does this policy stand to change?
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Conflict, Escalation, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
9911. The Gulf Countries and Turkey: (Re-)Drawing the Map of Alliances in the Middle East
- Author:
- Yoel Guzansky and Gallia Lindenstrauss
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- After a decade of hostility, and against the background of Turkey’s weak economic situation and Iran’s expanded regional presence, there is a significant improvement in the relations between Ankara and Abu Dhabi and Riyadh. What opportunities might this change bring for the region, and how might this affect Israel’s relations with Turkey and with the Gulf countries?
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Alliance, Strategic Interests, and Regional Power
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Gulf Nations
9912. The Russia-Ukraine War: Where Do We Go from Here?
- Author:
- Zvi Magen and Sophie Kobzantsev
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Two months after the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the goal of a short campaign has clearly not been achieved. Russia now seeks to achieve gains while suspending the negotiations with Kyiv – both to improve its position in advance of future negotiations, and to deliver the message to the West that “you cannot stop us.”
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
9913. Between ISIS and Arab Citizens of Israel
- Author:
- Yoram Schweitzer, Ephraim Lavie, and Meir Elran
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Although the three Israeli citizens who committed the terrorist attacks in Beersheba and Hadera were identified with ISIS, the organization has not gained a foothold within Israel’s Arab society. In general, the Arab sector objects to the ISIS ideology and violent measures. Israel must try to preserve this norm, building on the public denunciation of terror by Arab leaders and the further social and economic integration of the Arab society in the state
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, ISIS, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
9914. Seven Years Later: Is the War in Yemen Nearly Over?
- Author:
- Yoel Guzansky and Inbal Nissim-Louvton
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- After seven years of war in Yemen and more than 400,000 people killed, there are signs of dramatic developments that might lead to a turning point, with important implications for the region – and for Israel
- Topic:
- Security, War, Military Strategy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Yemen
9915. Stalemate in Talks with Iran on a Return to the Nuclear Agreement
- Author:
- Sima Shine and Eldad Shavit
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- The talks in Vienna between the United States and Iran ended with the text of the agreement almost complete. Conclusion of the deal rests on political decisions in Washington and Tehran, mostly concerning the Iranian demand to remove the Revolutionary Guards from the State Department’s list of terror organizations. At this stage the chances of finalizing the deal are equal to the chances of the talks collapsing. How should Israel act at this sensitive time?
- Topic:
- Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
9916. Investigation of Russia's Crimes in Ukraine: A Turning Point for the International Criminal Court?
- Author:
- Ori Beeri and Pnina Sharvit Baruch
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- The Chief Prosecutor at The Hague has already begun to investigate actions taken by Russia in the Ukrainian arena, while accelerating judicial proceedings and bureaucracy. This reflects a change of approach, which includes the prioritization of recent events, as part of an effort to strengthen the status of the Court. How will this affect the investigation of the war in Eastern Europe – and the investigation concerning Israel?
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Conflict, International Crime, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Global Focus
9917. A Multi-Front Terror Campaign: How Should Israel Respond?
- Author:
- Kobi Michael and Udi Dekel
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- There is a tendency to see the recent terror attacks in Israel as a new wave of terror, destined, like any wave, to ebb following its limited duration. Alternatively, recent events might challenge this paradigm and reflect a multi-theater campaign led by Hamas, in cooperation with Islamic Jihad and with Iranian support. How should Israel act in face of the current situation?
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, Military Strategy, and Counter-terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
9918. Walking a Fine Line: Turkey’s Mediation between Russia and Ukraine, and Relations with the West
- Author:
- Remi Daniel and Gallia Lindenstrauss
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Turkey’s reaction to the Russian aggression in Ukraine was among the more moderate responses heard from NATO members. With an eye to the post-war situation, Ankara is trying to walk a tightrope and not overly provoke either side. What lies behind this Turkish policy, and is it viable?
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Conflict, and Mediation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Turkey, and Ukraine
9919. The Ukrainian Civil Front – An Interim Assessment
- Author:
- Meir Elran, Uri Bar-Yosef, and Zvi Magen
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Most of Ukraine’s civilian population demonstrates a high degree of steadfastness during the war, rallying around the flag – and around the president. Nonetheless, the challenge to Ukrainian national resilience remains high, given the huge waves of migration, the losses in the hinterland, and the severe damage to national infrastructure and the local economy – which could have decisive effects on Ukraine’s ability to recover from the war
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, War, Military Strategy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
9920. Nonetheless, We Need to Maneuver
- Author:
- Gal Perl Finkel
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- “Defeat the enemy, defeat it quickly, in such a way that at the end of the day no one will ask who won and who lost.” These words of the former chief of staff continue to resonate today, and when voices emerge, arguing that the ground option should be a last resort, it is important to emphasize – only a combination of firepower, a defense system, and smart ground maneuvering can achieve a clear victory, one that we have not seen in a long time ago
- Topic:
- Security, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
9921. After the Russian “Ruse,” China Looks for New Friends
- Author:
- Galia Lavi
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- With the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it would seem that Beijing and Moscow should be a united front against the West. But in actuality, China has been surprised by the scale of the Russian aggression and is now rethinking its position in the geopolitical arena. How will this affect the Middle East?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, and Asia
9922. With Ramadan Approaching, the Fear of Escalation
- Author:
- Yohanan Tzoreff
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- The recent terrorist attacks are a tangible illustration of the growing concern in the security establishment and among the public of possible escalation approaching and during Ramadan. Israel has a few possible ways to act to lower the flames, including political and security moves that can be taken by virtue of improved ties with states in the region
- Topic:
- Religion, Terrorism, ISIS, Conflict, and Escalation
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
9923. MF Dollars for Dictators? The Allocation of SDR to Moderate and Isolated Countries
- Author:
- Haggy Etkes
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- “The International Monetary Fund assisted radical regimes, including the Russian government and the Taliban in Afghanistan”: This claim was made given the allocation of Special Drawing Rights (SDR) by the IMF to states in the region. Is there truth to this charge?
- Topic:
- Economics, International Cooperation, Finance, and IMF
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Russia, Europe, and Middle East
9924. The Russian Bear and the Molotov Cocktail: The Palestinians and the Crisis in Ukraine
- Author:
- Noa Shusterman
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, the Palestinians – unlike most of the world – have remained silent and not demonstrated any solidarity with the Ukrainian people. What lies behind this posture, and how might the focus on the war in Eastern Europe influence the Palestinian issue?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Conflict, Palestinian Authority, Strategic Interests, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Palestine
9925. Intelligence and the War in Ukraine: The Limited Power of Public Disclosure
- Author:
- Ofek Reimer
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Months before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the West began to disclose intelligence material on Putin’s plans – thereby using a policy tool that brings with it both advantages and risks. What did the intelligence disclosures achieve, and what might Israel learn from this experience?
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Intelligence, Military Strategy, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
9926. Will Russia Use Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine?
- Author:
- Helit Barel
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- One month into the war in Ukraine, the nuclear threat remains. Will Russia’s President decide to use nuclear weapons on the battlefield, and thereby shatter the 77 years of nuclear deterrence? From a rational perspective, there is little likelihood of this occurring, but thus far Putin has not succeeded in realizing his goals in the Ukrainian theater – and Russia has a large arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
9927. The United States and the Ukrainian Crisis: Implications for the Internal Arena and the Great Power Competition
- Author:
- Eldad Shavit
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- With the crisis in Eastern Europe continuing, Washington is maintaining a steady policy: military assistance to Ukraine and economic isolation of Russia, without “boots on the ground.” How is this policy perceived in the United States, particularly in advance of the midterm elections this coming November? How does the war influence the administration’s priorities that were outlined at the outset of its tenure?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Hegemony, Leadership, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
9928. The War in Ukraine and Strategic Hedging by Arab Countries
- Author:
- Yoel Guzansky
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- The war in Ukraine has accelerated the strategic hedging by Arab states, even at the risk of (temporarily?) harming their relations with the United States. Does this policy overreach its mark, and will the United States ultimately want to settle the score with these states? How does this foreign policy redesign the Arab sphere?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
9929. Underreporting of Russian Investments Abroad: Are the Sanctions Undermined?
- Author:
- Haggy Etkes
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- There are indications of underreporting to Western authorities of Russian investments worth about 90 billion dollars, when Russian reports of investments abroad are compared with Western data. If correct, this undermines the effectiveness of the asset freezing that is part of the sanctions imposed by the West following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Sanctions, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
9930. The War in Ukraine: The Challenge of Shaping an Endgame
- Author:
- Udi Dekel
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Although nearly three weeks have passed since Putin invaded Ukraine, there is no framework for an endgame on the horizon. While the United States and the West would like to bring Putin to his knees as he sinks deeper in the Ukrainian mud, Washington must recognize that the longer the war continues, the chances increase for escalation to new levels that neither side wants. Therefore, before the situation is completely out of control, there must be a dialogue with Russia that can lead to an end to the war.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Conflict, Peace, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
9931. The Second Republic of Iran: Is Iran Moving toward a Constitutional Change?
- Author:
- Raz Zimmt
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- An initiative to replace the presidential system with a parliamentary system is once again on the agenda of the Islamic Republic, and this time enjoys support among conservatives as well as in the reformist-pragmatic camp – all for their respective reasons. Is there any viable possibility of this constitutional change in Iran?
- Topic:
- Governance, Constitution, Leadership, Transition, and Theocracy
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
9932. Is Ukraine Poised to Join NATO and the European Union?
- Author:
- Oden Eran and Shimon Stein
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there are more and more voices in the West calling for Kiev’s acceptance into NATO and the European Union. However, this is not the time for rapid measures. Now that Putin has backed himself int a corner, the United States and Europe, in parallel with the harsh sanctions imposed on Russia and the assistance to Ukraine, must leave Moscow a way out
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, and North America
9933. Putin’s Dilemma
- Author:
- Ofer Shelah
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- After more than two weeks of war in Ukraine, initial conclusions can already be drawn. Chief among these is the realization that force application in complicated conditions can confront a decision maker with a serious dilemma, in which precisely a military achievement may destroy any possibility of scoring a political achievement
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Leadership, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
9934. Egypt and Israel: Renewable Energies for Peace
- Author:
- Ofir Winter
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Egypt’s intense preparations for the international climate conference that it will host in Sharm el-Sheikh were evident at the World Youth Forum that met there this past January. Many of the conference sessions were devoted to the climate issue, which is currently challenging the international system in general, and Egypt in particular. Cairo’s goal to serve as a regional hub for gas and renewable energies presents an opportunity for increased cooperation between Egypt and Israel – particularly at a time that Europe is confronted with the ramifications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, Israel, and Egypt
9935. Germany and the Ukraine Crisis: End of the Age of Illusions
- Author:
- Shimon Stein
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sent shockwaves through Germany’s political-security approach of the last decades, and recent speeches in the Bundestag reflect the government’s intention to make system-wide changes in security orientation. Germany must also understand how it missed warning signs from Russia over the years, and formulate a clear policy that addresses the emerging worrisome trends
- Topic:
- Security, Conflict, Strategic Interests, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, and Germany
9936. A Rising and Falling Alarm: A Strategy for a Joint Exercise in the Home Front Command
- Author:
- Liron Donnell
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- The incoming chief of staff of the Home Front Command responds to an article by INSS researcher Meir Elran. She contends that contrary to the claim that the national home front exercise held this past November realized only part of its potential, the exercise in fact met all of its goals and saw many solid achievements. Moreover, the criticism of the event addressed issues that cannot be resolved in a single exercise
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
9937. The Russian Invasion of Ukraine: Legal Aspects
- Author:
- Pnina Sharvit Baruch and Ori Beeri
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Since Russia invaded Ukraine, it has been the object of significant legal pressure. While the various legal measures have no power to stop the bloody war, they deliver a powerful, unequivocal message: any state that flagrantly violates international world and undermines the world order will suffer isolation, condemnation, sanction, and criminal investigations. Israel, which has seemed to lean to sitting on the fence, must join the international efforts against Russia, Otherwise it is liable to find itself on the wrong side of history
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Law, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
9938. Hezbollah's Efforts to Restore its Domestic Standing: The Israeli Card
- Author:
- Orna Mizrahi and Yoram Schweitzer
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- The launch of a drone into Israeli territory this past February was yet another offensive cognitive activity by Hezbollah, intended to mask its deteriorating situation – in the domestic arena, stemming from the growing criticism of the organization in advance of the coming elections, scheduled for May, and vis-à-vis Israel, given its difficulty to maintain the “deterrence equation” that it defined. Jerusalem should expect additional acts of this sort, while preparing for a future situation in which the attacks become a security threat
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Hezbollah
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
9939. Qatar’s Regional and International Standing is on the Rise
- Author:
- Yoel Guzansky
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- With the war in Ukraine and the possible energy shortage, Qatar’s international status as the world’s largest exporter of liquified natural gas (LNG) has risen. What opportunities now lie before Doha, and how might this situation affect Israel?
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Hegemony, and Regional Power
- Political Geography:
- Qatar and Gulf Nations
9940. The Ukraine Crisis: An Interim Analysis
- Author:
- Eldad Shavit, Zvi Magen, and Shimon Stein
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Although Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began only days ago, it is already clear that with this belligerence Putin has upset the world order that has existed since the Second World War. The Western bloc has already begun to realign and is presenting a unified and forceful stance vis-à-vis Moscow. Israel can no longer avoid taking a clear stand and siding fully with the countries opposing Russia
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Conflict, Strategic Interests, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
9941. Functional Specialisation in EU Value Chains: Methods for Identifying EU Countries’ Roles in International Production Networks
- Author:
- Aleksandra Kordalska, Magdalena Olczyk, Roman Stöllinger, and Zuzana Zavarská
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
- Abstract:
- Geographically dispersed production networks have allowed countries to specialise in different functions of the value chain. By making use of two methodologies for quantifying the magnitude of functional specialisation – one based on trade flows and one based on FDI flows – detailed profiles of the functional specialisations of EU member states are identified. The analyses are conducted at the country, industry and regional level. In line with the existing literature, they reveal that EU-CEE countries are predominantly specialised in the fabrication stage, that is, they serve as ‘factory economies’, while the Western EU countries are mainly performing knowledge-intensive pre-fabrication activities – a characteristic of ‘headquarter economies’. This dualism within the EU is confirmed by a cluster analysis. While functional specialisation patterns tend to be persistent, especially in the fabrication stage, there are also some signs of functional diversification in EU-CEE countries in more recent years. Still, these functional changes remain limited to a few industries. The dichotomy of factory and headquarter economies is also clearly discernible at the regional level. However, the fact that in most EU countries – mainly in the capital regions – there are some headquarter-type regions implies that a complete functional ‘lock-in’ in fabrication is less likely than suggested by the country-level patterns. Hence, while the results point towards major difficulties of functional diversification beyond the fabrication stage in the EU-CEE countries and regions, there are also several promising elements and trends discernible, in particular at the industry and the regional level.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, European Union, Economy, Value Chains, Specialization, and Competition
- Political Geography:
- Europe
9942. FDI Spillover Effects on Innovation Activities of Knowledge-using and Knowledge-creating Firms: Evidence from an Emerging Economy
- Author:
- Iraj Hashi, Mehtap Hisarciklilar, Slavo Radošević, Nebojša Stojčić, and Nina Vujanović
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
- Abstract:
- The beneficial effects of innovation for firms’ performance and competitiveness are well documented, but it has been suggested in recent years that innovation regimes differ between advanced and emerging economies. While advanced economies rely on knowledge generation, their emerging counterparts follow mainly a knowledge-use regime through the application of existing knowledge and technology. Climbing up the technological ladder can be helped through spillovers from foreign investors to local firms. We investigate whether FDI spillovers influence different phases of the innovation process (from decision to innovate to productivity) among knowledge-using and knowledge-creating firms in an emerging European economy. The results show that the innovation process in emerging economies is closer to the imitation than the creation of novel products. Local firms benefit from foreign counterparts in the early phase of the innovation process. Stronger FDI effects are found among firms that undertake innovation through knowledge use rather than through knowledge generation.
- Topic:
- Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, Economy, Investment, and Knowledge Systems
- Political Geography:
- Europe
9943. What Drives Credit Risk? Empirical Evidence from Southeast Europe
- Author:
- Nikola Fabris and Nina Vujanović
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
- Abstract:
- Bank stability is an important aspect of financial stability, especially in bank-centric systems such as those in Southeast Europe. The financial crisis has shown that there is a particular need to monitor credit and other similar risks. Hence, it is important to analyse risks affecting the stability of both the banking sector and the financial system as a whole. To that end, central banks have developed macroprudential policies aiming to safeguard financial stability. However, little is known about the drivers of some financial risks. In that context, this study analyses the determinants of credit risk, which is the most prominent risk in the banking sectors of three selected Southeast European economies – Montenegro, Kosovo* and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Dynamic panel data techniques were applied to 48 banks, which represent almost the entire banking sectors in the respective countries. The empirical evidence has shown that both macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants represent influential factors driving credit risk in Southeast Europe. Particularly important macroeconomic factors affecting credit risk are business cycle and sovereign debt. On the other hand, bank size, capital levels, credit activity and profitability are the most prominent factors influencing credit risk in the region.
- Topic:
- Risk, Credit, Financial Stability, and Banking
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Montenegro, and Bosnia and Herzegovina
9944. Industrial Robots, and Information and Communication Technology: The Employment Effects in EU Labour Markets
- Author:
- Stefan Jestl
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
- Abstract:
- This paper explores the effects of industrial robots and information and communication technology (ICT) on regional employment in EU countries. The empirical analysis relies on a harmonised comprehensive regional dataset, which combines business statistics and national and regional accounts data. This rich dataset enables us to provide detailed insights into the employment effects of automation and computerisation in EU regions for the period 2001-2016. The results suggest relatively weak effects on regional total employment dynamics. However, employment effects differ between manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries. Industrial robots show negative employment effects in local manufacturing industries, but positive employment effects in local non-manufacturing industries. While the negative effect is concentrated in particular local manufacturing industries, the positive effect operates in local service industries. IT investments show positive employment effects only in local manufacturing industries, while CT investments are shown to be irrelevant for employment dynamics. In contrast, software and database investments have had a predominantly negative impact on local employment in both local manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries.
- Topic:
- Labor Issues, European Union, Employment, Industry, Robotics, and Labor Market
- Political Geography:
- Europe
9945. Does my Computer Protect me from Burnout? Cross-country Evidence on the Impact of ICT use within the Job Demands-Resources Model
- Author:
- Sandra Leitner and Roman Stöllinger
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
- Abstract:
- This paper uses a large sample of employees from 35 European countries to study the direct and indirect effects of ICT use on burnout and work engagement as two opposite poles of employee psychological health, where the former comprises the three dimensions of exhaustion, cynicism and professional efficacy. It applies the Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) model and analyses the mediating role of three job demands (work extensity, work intensity, social demands) and four job resources (social support from management or colleagues, job control, rewards) on workers’ psychological health. It accounts for the importance of the place of work for the effect of ICT use on workers’ psychological health by differentiating between four types of workers: home-based workers, highly mobile workers, occasionally mobile workers, and workers who always work at the employer’s premises. The results show that ICT use is associated with lower levels of exhaustion but is unrelated to work engagement. Furthermore, work intensity, work extensity, social demands and rewards mediate the effect of ICT use on exhaustion, while job control and rewards mediate the effect of ICT use on work engagement. Our multi-group analysis attributes the negative effect of ICT use on exhaustion mainly to occasionally mobile workers and to workers who always work at the employer’s premises and highlights that the factors that mediate the effect of ICT use on workers’ psychological health differ across the four types of workers. Home-based workers stand out in two important respects: first, ICT use per se is unrelated to burnout; second, only one factor – work intensity – mediates the effect of ICT use on burnout, but its effect is especially strong.
- Topic:
- Labor Issues, Work Culture, Engagement, Computers, and Burnout
- Political Geography:
- Europe
9946. Comparative Advantages in the Digital Era – A Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek Approach
- Author:
- Dario Guarascio and Roman Stöllinger
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
- Abstract:
- This paper revisits the Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek (HOV) theorem and investigates its fit for digital tasks and ICT capital, which both represent endowment factors that are expected to shape the digital transformation. We use a theory-consistent methodology for calculating the measured net factor content of trade (Trefler and Zhu, 2010) and apply it to a unique dataset on digital and non-digital tasks performed in detailed occupations, as well as recent data on ICT capital stocks. Equipped with these data we provide new evidence on the factor-based trade patterns for 25 EU countries and use it to test the HOV theorem. Overall, the performance of the sign test and the rank test is good if not impressive. In 83% of the cases countries are net exporters of those factors with which they are abundantly endowed, with a higher score achieved for digital tasks than for ICT capital. We conclude that the fit of the HOV theorem for highly relevant endowments of the digital era is as good as that of traditional endowment factors.
- Topic:
- European Union, Business, Trade, and Digital Transition
- Political Geography:
- Europe
9947. The Impact of ICT and Intangible Capital Accumulation on Labour Demand Growth and Functional Income Shares
- Author:
- Robert Stehrer
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
- Abstract:
- This paper investigates whether the diffusion of tangible IT and CT capital and intangible capital asset types has an impact on labour demand growth and the share of labour income in total income at the industry and country level. The econometric analysis is derived from a Cobb-Douglas production function taking empirical stylized facts into account. The effects of technical progress embodied in the various forms of capital impact along inter-industry and intercountry production linkages, which are considered by using global value chain indicators. The analysis is broken down to examine the influence on different types of labour, including the dimensions of gender, age, and educational attainment. Accumulation of ICT assets have generally insignificant and in some cases small positive effects on labour demand and income shares, though patterns differ across types of labour. Intangible assets show a positive relation with respect to labour demand growth.
- Topic:
- Labor Issues, European Union, Capital, Income, and Capital Accumulation
- Political Geography:
- Europe
9948. Salmonella Program in the European Union and the Trade Dispute with Brazil at the World Trade Organisation: A Partial Equilibrium Framework
- Author:
- Mahdi Ghodsi
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
- Abstract:
- This contribution provides a cost-benefit analysis in a partial equilibrium framework to investigate the welfare consequences of a prohibitive regulatory non-tariff measure (NTM) in the form of a sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measure aimed at a foreign product with perceived negative characteristics. Two groups of consumers are distinguished: one that is indifferent to the foreign product’s negative attributes, and another that is concerned about them. Different scenarios concerning the welfare gains from the introduction of an NTM are explored. The results depend on consumer awareness and information policies pursued by the government of the importing country or group of countries. The theoretical model is illustrated with data on the production and importation of prepared poultry in the EU. This paper focusses on the recent Dispute Settlement (DS) case 607 at the World Trade Organization (WTO) that was initiated by Brazil in November 2021 to consult with the EU on restrictive measures imposed on the importation of prepared and preserved poultry. These restrictions are in line with the comprehensive and restrictive programme legislated by the EU to combat salmonella spp. The findings suggest that the consumer surplus may be reduced after the imposition of prohibitive SPS measures because the market structure changes from a duopoly to a monopoly. However, when the perceived harm of the bad product increases and the portion of the concerned population in society regarding the bad product increases, the change in the consumer surplus also increases.
- Topic:
- World Trade Organization, European Union, Welfare, Trade Policy, and Disputes
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Brazil, and South America
9949. The Cyclical Behaviour of Fiscal Policy During the Covid-19 Crisis
- Author:
- Philipp Heimberger
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
- Abstract:
- This paper analyses the cyclicality of fiscal policy (discretionary versus automatic) for 28 advanced economies over 1995-2021 by paying special attention to the Covid-19 crisis. We find evidence that discretionary fiscal policy during the Covid-19 crisis (2020-2021) was significantly more countercyclical than before – in particular in the Eurozone. We do not find comparable evidence for more counter-cyclicality during the financial crisis or Euro crisis, which lends support to the argument that discretionary fiscal policy responded especially forceful to stabilise the economy during the Covid-19 crisis. Furthermore, automatic fiscal stabilisers contributed significantly to counter-cyclical stabilisation, although their performance over 2020-2021 was more in line with the past than for discretionary fiscal policy. Overall, fiscal policy in non-Eurozone advanced countries is more countercyclical than in the Eurozone. However, the cyclicality varies markedly across countries. Our findings shed light on how the cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy varies across countries and time.
- Topic:
- Financial Crisis, European Union, Fiscal Policy, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe
9950. Achieving a Safer U.S. Nuclear Posture
- Author:
- Joseph Cirincione
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
- Abstract:
- • U.S. nuclear posture is on a dangerous path that imperils national security and expends far too many resources. It is not a rational response to external threats but is driven primarily by domestic factors including a hubristic strategy of nuclear supremacy, partisan politics, and entrenched arms lobbies with formidable influence in the Pentagon and Congress. • A safer nuclear policy entails, among other steps, reducing the number of deployed strategic warheads by one-third, to about 1,000, taking nuclear-armed missiles off hair-trigger alert, embracing no first use or sole purpose doctrines, and requiring an additional senior official to authorize launch. Pacts such as AUKUS that encourage the spread of nuclear weapons technology must also be rethought. • If implemented, these policies will greatly reduce risk while maintaining deterrence; they will also lead to significant savings in the national security budget. A majority of independent experts believe that U.S. national security objectives can be met at far lower levels and with a safer nuclear posture, saving hundreds of billions of dollars over the next few decades. • Many of these recommendations can be implemented even if the Biden administration’s upcoming Nuclear Posture Review proves disappointing. The president retains substantial policy and budgetary options for reducing the risk of nuclear war and the cost of nuclear deterrence.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, National Security, Nuclear Weapons, Budget, and Defense Spending
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America