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9102. 'Between the Obsolete and the Utopian': David Miliband Q&A on Friday 6 May 2022
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
- Abstract:
- Following his Keynote Address to the Mile End Institute's New Labour, New Britain conference on Friday 6 May 2022, David Miliband took questions from our in-person audience about his time in both Tony Blair and Gordon Brown's governments as well as his thoughts on the future of the Labour Party.
- Topic:
- Governance, Leadership, Domestic Politics, and Labour Party
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
9103. New Labour, New Britain: Professor Matthew Hilton introduces the Rt Hon David Miliband
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
- Abstract:
- On Friday 6 May 2022, Professor Matthew Hilton (Vice Principal for Humanities and Social Sciences) introduces the Rt Hon David Miliband, who delivered the Keynote Address at the Mile End Institute's New Labour, New Britain conference to mark the 25th anniversary of New Labour's landslide victory in the 1997 General Election.
- Topic:
- Governance, Elections, Leadership, Domestic Politics, and Labour Party
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
9104. New Labour, New Britain: Audience Q&A on Modernisation and Change in the 1997 Campaign
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
- Abstract:
- In the first session of the Mile End Institute's New Labour, New Britain conference, Dame Margaret Hodge, Professor Sarah Childs, Caroline Flint and John McTernan answer questions from our in-person audience on 'Modernisation and Change' on the Road to the 1997 Election.
- Topic:
- Elections, Leadership, Domestic Politics, and Labour Party
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
9105. New Labour, New Britain: Dame Margaret Hodge
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
- Abstract:
- n the first session of the Mile End Institute's New Labour, New Britain conference on 'Modernisation and Change in the 1997 Campaign', Dame Margaret Hodge reflects on the fall-out from the Wilson and Callaghan governments, how the Labour Party changed before 1997 and the contribution of Local Government to New Labour's landslide in May 1997.
- Topic:
- Governance, Elections, Leadership, Local, and Labour Party
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
9106. New Labour, New Britain: John McTernan
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
- Abstract:
- In the first session of the Mile End Institute's New Labour, New Britain conference on 'Modernisation and Change in the 1997 Campaign', the journalist, John McTernan, reflects on the significance of the 1997 election and his time as Director of Political Operations for Tony Blair from 2005 to 2007.
- Topic:
- Governance, Elections, Leadership, and Labour Party
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
9107. New Labour, New Britain: Professor Sarah Childs
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
- Abstract:
- In the first session of the Mile End Institute's New Labour, New Britain conference on 'Modernisation and Change in the 1997 campaign', Professor Sarah Childs reflects on the 'watershed' importance of New Labour in advancing the number of women in Parliament and considers whether New Labour fundamentally changed how women feel about politics and Britain's political institutions.
- Topic:
- Governance, Domestic Politics, Feminism, Gender, and Labour Party
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
9108. New Labour, New Britain: Rt Hon Caroline Flint
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
- Abstract:
- In the first session of the Mile End Institute's New Labour, New Britain conference on 'Modernisation and Change in the 1997 Campaign', the former MP for Don Valley, Caroline Flint, reflects on how New Labour changed the Labour Party and her experiences serving in the Blair and Brown governments.
- Topic:
- Governance, Elections, Leadership, Domestic Politics, and Labour Party
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
9109. New Labour, New Britain: Professor Tim Bale on the result of the 1997 General Election
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
- Abstract:
- In this presentation, Professor Tim Bale explores the result of the 1997 General Election and considers how New Labour changed the electoral geography of the United Kingdom.
- Topic:
- Governance, Elections, Leadership, Domestic Politics, and Labour Party
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
9110. A More Complete Realism: Grand Strategy in a New Key
- Author:
- Claes G. Ryn
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Humanitas
- Institution:
- The Center for the Study of Statesmanship, Catholic University
- Abstract:
- The field of international relations centers on the problem of war and peace. For many decades nuclear weapons have given great urgency to dealing wisely with the subject. Countries having sometimes very tense relations with each other possess these weapons. Nevertheless, because they have not been used since World War II, the threat of nuclear war has appeared distant. We tell ourselves that no sane, rational leader would resort to these weapons. Self-preservation and enlightened self-interest forbid their use. And yet history is full of evidence that human beings often act not prudently but out of the intense passion of the moment—out of hatred, fury, wild abandon, sheer desperation, or boundless ambition. Nuclear weapons are but one of the reasons why theories of international relations should include as complete and subtle an understanding as possible of what might induce prudence and restraint. Realism is certainly needed, but the belief that human beings are rational actors pursuing self-interest and that states behave in a quasi-mechanical manner needs to be revised and supplemented. Because of the potentially disastrous consequences of flawed assumptions in international relations, simplified theories of human nature are out of place. Even more than other fields, international relations needs in-depth reflection on subjects that some may consider too subtle, esoteric, or “philosophical.”
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Cooperation, Grand Strategy, and Realism
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
9111. Statesmanship for Political Economy in the National Interest
- Author:
- Nathan Hitchens
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Humanitas
- Institution:
- The Center for the Study of Statesmanship, Catholic University
- Abstract:
- As we emerge unevenly from the ravages of a global pandemic, the new world upon us is summoning statesmanship for political economy in the national interest. 2020 was apocalyptic in the true sense of the word. The depth of our dependence on Chinese manufactures for everything from face masks, respirators, ventilators, to basic pharmaceuticals was revelatory. This emergency unveiled the gaunt figure of American industry. Yet, our industrial thinning-out was there for all to see during America’s decades-long, neoliberal diet of globalized supply chains, offshored manufacturing, and international trade based on economic comparative advantage and specialization. An optimist might object to this dire picture and point to Operation Warp Speed, the massive effort of industrial policy in pharmaceuticals and drug development, which produced vaccine formulae in record time by relying on a World War II model of public-private sector mobilization and on powers of the federal government in the 1950 Defense Production Act.
- Topic:
- Security, Political Economy, Governance, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
9112. Women’s Liberation in Soviet, Sino, and American State Building: Theory and Practice
- Author:
- Emily B. Finley
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Humanitas
- Institution:
- The Center for the Study of Statesmanship, Catholic University
- Abstract:
- Women’s liberation is a concept that is almost always found at the heart of revolutionary thinking. Plato, devising the ideal state in which all perform work according to inborn ability and hold goods in common according to the dictates of justice, very soon discovers that marriage and the nuclear family are hindrances to the perfectly just republic. Plato’s plan for abolishing the traditional family pertains to the guardian class and exemplifies a deep suspicion of the family as fostering attitudes detrimental to building the just state. Plato was the opposite of an egalitarian, but the view of the family as a harbinger of “private morality” would in the modern period characterize radically egalitarian philosophies that envision an all-dominating public consciousness and a corresponding collective activism. Family life, especially for women, is not naturally suited to this political objective. The construction of Plato’s perfectly just city entails the assurance that women worthy of being “guardians” can outsource childcare and can freely produce guardian-worthy children.
- Topic:
- Women, Feminism, State Building, Gender, and Liberation
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Asia, Soviet Union, North America, and United States of America
9113. Professing Literature: The Example of Austin Warren
- Author:
- Aaron Urbanczyk
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Humanitas
- Institution:
- The Center for the Study of Statesmanship, Catholic University
- Abstract:
- Literary studies in America are in a late stage of decay. For nearly a century English departments have been a revolving door of influences, most of which have not been salutary. In rapid succession historical and philological scholarship of the early twentieth century gave way to the New Criticism, the critical influences of Marx and Freud, postmodernism (deconstruction), New Historicism, and the currently dominant hermeneutics of race, class, gender, and sexual orientation. University English departments today are divided along these various ideological lines, with the result that literary studies have morphed into a heterogeneous set of subdisciplines with the word “studies” appended. Here I intend no polemic against or diagnosis of the chaotic state of literature as a discipline; rather, I propose considering this state of affairs from the point of view of its practitioners. The professoriate is defined by those who profess. Borrowing Gerald Graff’s phrase, one might ask who stands out as a model of “professing literature” amidst this disciplinary chaos?
- Topic:
- Education, Literature, Academia, and Discipline
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
9114. A German Tocqueville? The Unrecognized Importance of Francis Lieber’s Letters to a Gentleman in Germany, or The Stranger in America
- Author:
- Joshua Waechter
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Humanitas
- Institution:
- The Center for the Study of Statesmanship, Catholic University
- Abstract:
- “No German I know could have analyzed public life as I have done, having had the advantage of a practical citizen’s life for many years, in a vast republic.”1 Francis Lieber, the stocky, thick-accented German to whom this bold statement belonged, was basking in the positive reception of his recently published Manual of Political Ethics. He considered himself—along with his friend Alexis de Tocqueville—as one of a select few gifted with special insight into a nation’s political life. Joseph Story praised Lieber as even greater than Tocqueville, saying “‘You know ten times as much as he does of the actual workings of our system and of its true theory.’”2 Samuel Taylor agreed and, in an article comparing both men side by side, argued that, while Tocqueville was the better writer, Lieber surpassed him “as a political philosopher, comprehensive in his knowledge of the literatures of history and of politics, and of the practices of government; and profound in understanding the guaranties of liberty, and the institutions and arrangements of governments for their protection.”3 Given this high praise, one might well ask whether Tocqueville was a “French Lieber.” However, given Tocqueville’s modern fame, perhaps it is better to ask whether Lieber should be understood as a kind of “German Tocqueville,” especially regarding his observations about the fledgling United States. In order to assess the significance of Lieber’s understanding of American political institutions for his own political thought, we need to begin with his 1834 travel journal about a trip to Niagara Falls.
- Topic:
- Intelligence, Politics, Leadership, and Institutions
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
9115. The Inflation Weapon: How American Sanctions Harm Iranian Households
- Author:
- Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Fourth Freedom Forum
- Abstract:
- This study examines the humanitarian harms of U.S. sanctions on Iranian citizens by focusing on their principal economic impact—high rates of inflation. Although nonexperimental, the study draws upon various data to present a cohesive, if not comprehensive, narrative of the economic shocks that followed the imposition of U.S. sanctions in 2012 and 2018.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Sanctions, Economy, and Inflation
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
9116. Civil Society & Political Transformations (Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy, Fall 2021)
- Author:
- Ghazi Ghazi
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Eleven years after the 2011 Arab Spring, feelings of transformation and change still reverberate throughout the region. The Spring 2022 edition, Civil Society and Political Transformations, seeks to illuminate how civil society organizations operate in the region and their effects on political transformations.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Education, Human Rights, Migration, Politics, Race, History, Reform, Women, Constitution, Arab Spring, Syrian War, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Baath Party, and Peacebuilding
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iraq, South Asia, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Libya, Yemen, Palestine, North Africa, Syria, Jordan, Morocco, and United Arab Emirates
9117. Leaning-against-the-wind intervention and the “carry-trade” view of the cost of reserves
- Author:
- Eduardo Levy-Yeyati and Juan Francisco Gómez
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- For a sample of emerging economies, we estimate the quasi-fiscal costs of sterilized foreign exchange interventions as the P&L of an inverse carry trade. We show that these costs can be substantial when intervention has a neo-mercantilist motive (preserving an undervalued currency) or a stabilization motive (appreciating the exchange rate as a nominal anchor) but are rather small when interventions follow a countercyclical, leaning-against-the-wind (LAW) pattern to contain exchange rate volatility. We document that under LAW, central banks outperform a constant size carry trade, as they additionally benefit from buying against cyclical deviations, and that the cost of reserves under the carry-trade view is generally lower than the one obtained from the credit-risk view (which equals the marginal cost to the country´s sovereign spread).
- Topic:
- Foreign Exchange, Economy, International Reserves, Trade, and Exchange Rates
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
9118. Public policy actors view success differently, and it matters
- Author:
- Matt Andrews
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Literature tells us there are many dimensions of public policy success, and different actors in the policy process will likely focus on different dimensions. This paper asks how different actors in the policy process view policy success, and how much their views differ. It finds evidence that actors devising policy plans— designers—view success narrowly, as achieving near-term, programmed goals; whereas other actors involved in advocating for, authorizing, and implementing policies have a broader success perspective, paying more attention to non-program criteria like long-term impact, distributional and endurance success, and intertemporal gains that manifest in the way policies grow capability, political support, stakeholder satisfaction, and process legitimacy. Such finding raises a question about how policy objectives are determined when actors disagree, given that literature also tells us that policies are more likely to succeed when actors agree on what success is and how to achieve it.
- Topic:
- Government, Governance, and Public Policy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
9119. On the Design of Effective Sanctions: The Case of Bans on Exports to Russia
- Author:
- Ricardo Hausmann, Ulrich Schetter, and Muhammad A. Yildirim
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- We analyze the effects of bans on exports at the level of 5’000 products and show how our results can inform economic sanctions against Russia after its invasion of Ukraine. We begin with characterizing export restrictions imposed by the EU and the US until mid May 2022. We then propose a theoretically-grounded criterion for targeting export bans at the 6-digit HS level. Our results show that the cost to Russia are highly convex in the market share of the sanctioning parties, i.e., there are large benefits from coordinating export bans among a broad coalition of countries. Applying our results to Russia, we find that sanctions imposed by the EU and the US are not systematically related to our arguments once we condition on Russia’s total imports of a product from participating countries. Quantitative evaluations of the export bans show (i) that they are very effective with the welfare loss typically ∼100 times larger for Russia than for the sanctioners. (ii) Improved coordination of the sanctions and targeting sanctions based on our criterion allows to increase the costs to Russia by about 60% with little to no extra cost to the sanctioners. (iii) There is scope for increasing the cost to Russia further by expanding the set of sanctioned products.
- Topic:
- Sanctions, European Union, Exports, Trade, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
9120. A Simple Theory of Economic Development at the Extensive Industry Margin
- Author:
- Dario Diodato, Ricardo Hausmann, and Ulrich Schetter
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- We revisit the well-known fact that richer countries tend to produce a larger variety of goods and analyze economic development through (export) diversifcation. We show that countries are more likely to enter ‘nearby’ industries, i.e., industries that require fewer new occupations. To rationalize this fnding, we develop a small open economy (SOE) model of economic development at the extensive industry margin. In our model, industries difer in their input requirements of non-tradeable occupations or tasks. The SOE grows if proft maximizing frms decide to enter new, more advanced industries, which requires training workers in all occupations that are new to the economy. As a consequence, the SOE is more likely to enter nearby industries in line with our motivating fact. We provide indirect evidence in support of our main mechanism and then discuss implications: We show that there may be multiple equilibria along the development path, with some equilibria leading on a pathway to prosperity while others resulting in an income trap, and discuss implications for industrial policy. We fnally show that the rise of China has a non-monotonic efect on the growth prospects of other developing countries, and provide suggestive evidence for this theoretical prediction.
- Topic:
- Industrial Policy, Poverty, Reform, Economy, Diversification, Exports, and Convergence
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
9121. What is public policy success, especially in development?
- Author:
- Matt Andrews
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Public policy work is hard, especially when one works in developing countries. It is even difficult to define what success looks like, and thus how to manage towards success. Literature helps manage such difficulty, providing studies that define the concept and show how it can be achieved. A core message from such is that success is multi-dimensional, and practitioner need to focus on multiple criteria when doing their policy work. But what dimensions and criteria matter? And do development practitioners really adopt this multi-dimensional view? Tackling such questions, the current paper reviews 45 applied studies from the public policy, project management and development evaluation literatures to see what they identify as key success criteria and if the practical studies (about development evaluation) are in sync with the more academic messages. Reading across all three literatures, I identify 30 potential success criteria in 6 categories or dimensions (program, impact and endurance, capability, political, stakeholder, and process). I find that the development evaluation literature focuses on a narrow set of 7 criteria, mostly in one dimension (program success) as compared to broader perspectives in the other literatures. This suggests that development practitioners have a narrow view on success, which is out of step with academic views on the topic. A conclusion proposes a broader approach for these practitioners.
- Topic:
- Development, Public Policy, and Project Management
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
9122. Global Supply Chain Pressures, International Trade, and Inflation
- Author:
- Julian di Giovanni, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Alvaro Silva, and Muhammad A. Yildirim
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- We study the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on Euro Area inflation and how it compares to the experiences of other countries, such as the United States, over the two-year period 2020-21. Our model-based calibration exercises deliver four key results: 1) Compositional effects – the switch from services to goods consumption – are amplified through global input-output linkages, affecting both trade and inflation. 2) Inflation can be higher under sector-specific labor shortages relative to a scenario with no such supply shocks. 3) Foreign shocks and global supply chain bottlenecks played an outsized role relative to domestic aggregate demand shocks in explaining Euro Area inflation over 2020-21. 4) International trade did not respond to changes in GDP as strongly as it did during the 2008-09 crisis despite strong demand for goods. These lower trade elasticities in part reflect supply chain bottlenecks. These four results imply that policies aimed at stimulating aggregate demand would not have produced as high an inflation as the one observed in the data without the negative sectoral supply shocks.
- Topic:
- Economy, Inflation, COVID-19, and Supply Chains
- Political Geography:
- Europe and United States of America
9123. This is How to Think About and Achieve Public Policy Success
- Author:
- Matt Andrews
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Officials working on public policies must answer questions like ‘What does policy success mean?’ and ‘How should I pursue policy work in order to achieve success?’ These are difficult questions, but there are ways to respond. One way draws on what I call the program logic of policy success, which suggests that: (i) Success requires efficiently meeting goals that stakeholders view as relevant, (ii) by doing work focused on impacting high-level objectives through programs that deliver promised time-sensitive outputs and outcomes according to a clear, logical plan. I believe this logic dominates the global public policy community, as ‘the way’ officials and organizations should think about and do policy work. This paper tests such belief, showing that officials do think in this way and that this thinking is influenced by common budgeting and evaluation mechanisms. I conclude by asking if this way of thinking poses any concerns, especially if it biases policy organizations to produce some kinds of policy success and not others.
- Topic:
- Government, Public Policy, and Policymaking
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
9124. Cutting Putin’s Energy Rent: ‘Smart Sanctioning’ Russian Oil and Gas
- Author:
- Ricardo Hausmann, Agata Łoskot-Strachota, Axel Ockenfels, Ulrich Schetter, Simone Tagliapietra, Guntram Wolff, and Georg Zachmann
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Following the Russian aggression against Ukraine, major sanctions have been imposed by Western countries, most notably with the aim of limiting Russia’s access to hard international currency. However, Russia remains the world’s first exporter of oil and gas, and at current energy prices this provides large hard currency revenues. As the war continues, European governments are under increased pressure to scale-up their energy sanctions, following measures taken by the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada and Australia. This piece argues that given the inelasticity of Russia’s oil and gas supply, for Europe the most efficient way to sanction Russian energy would not be an embargo, but the introduction of an import tariff that can be used flexibly to control the degree of economic pressure on Russia.
- Topic:
- Economics, Oil, Sanctions, Exports, Currency, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and North America
9125. What Will It Take for Jordan to Grow?
- Author:
- Tim O'Brien, Thảo-Nguyên Bùi, Ermal Frasheri, Fernando Garcia, Eric Protzer, Ricardo Villasmil, and Ricardo Hausmann
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- This report aims to answer the critical but difficult question: "What will it take for Jordan to grow?" Though Jordan has numerous active growth and reform strategies in place, they do not clearly answer this fundamental question. The Jordanian economy has experienced more than a decade of slow growth. Per capita income today is lower than it was prior to the Global Financial Crisis as Jordan has experienced a refugee-driven population increase. Jordan’s comparative advantages have narrowed over time as external shocks and responses to these shocks have changed the productive structure of Jordan’s economy. This was a problem well before the country faced the COVID-19 pandemic. The Jordanian economy has lost productivity, market access, and, critically, the ability to afford high levels of imports as a share of GDP. Significant efforts toward fiscal consolidation have further constrained aggregate demand, which has slowed non-tradable activity and the ability of the economy to create jobs. Labor market outcomes have worsened over time and are especially bad for women and youth. Looking ahead, this report identifies clear and significant opportunities for Jordan to strengthen new engines of export growth that would enable better overall job creation and resilience, even amidst the continued unpredictability of the pandemic. This report argues that there is need for a paradigm shift in Jordan’s growth strategy to focus more direct attention and resources on activating “agents of change” to accelerate the emergence of key growth opportunities, and that there are novel roles that donor countries can play in support of this.
- Topic:
- Foreign Direct Investment, Economy, Economic Growth, Trade, COVID-19, Labor Market, Inclusion, and Green Jobs
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Jordan
9126. The Economic Complexity of Namibia: A Roadmap for Productive Diversification
- Author:
- Ricardo Hausmann, Miguel Angel Santos, Douglas Barrios, Nikita Taniparti, Jorge Tudela Pye, and Jessie Lu
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- After a large growth acceleration within the context of the commodity super cycle (2000- 2015), Namibia has been grappling with three interrelated challenges: economic growth, fiscal sustainability, and inclusion. Accelerating technological progress and enhancing Namibia’s knowhow agglomeration is crucial to the process of fostering new engines of growth that will deliver progress across the three targets. Using net exports data at the four-digit level, we estimate the economic complexity of Namibia – a measure of knowhow agglomeration – vis-à-vis its peers. Our results suggest that Namibia’s economy is relatively less complex and attractive opportunities to diversify tend to be more distant. Based on economic complexity metrics, we define a place-specific path for productive diversification, identifying industries with high potential and providing inputs – related to their feasibility and attractiveness in Namibia – for further prioritization. Namibia’s path to structural transformation will likely be steeper than for most peers, calling for a more active policy stance geared towards progressive accumulation of productive capacities, well-targeted “long jumps”, and strengthening state capacity to sort out market failures associated with the process of self-discovery.
- Topic:
- Development, Economy, Economic Complexity, and Industry
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Namibia
9127. Managing for Motivation as Public Performance Improvement Strategy in Education & Far Beyond
- Author:
- Dan Honig
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- People management has an important role to play in improving public agency performance. This paper argues that a ‘Route Y’ managerial approach focused on supporting the empowered exercise of employee judgment will in many circumstances prove superior to conventional reform approaches steeped in ‘Route X’ monitoring and incentives. Returns to Route Y are greater when employees are or can become more “mission motivated” – that is, aligned with the goals of the agency in the absence of monitoring and extrinsic incentives. Returns to Route Y are also greater when monitoring is incomplete or otherwise likely to unproductively distort effort, thus lowering the returns to using performance-linked rewards and penalties. I argue that education systems are one (but far from the only) setting where Route Y is a lever worth focusing on in efforts to improve public performance in the developed and developing world alike.
- Topic:
- Development, Education, Public Policy, Performance Evaluation, and Project Management
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
9128. Getting Real about Unknowns in Complex Policy Work
- Author:
- Matt Andrews
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- As with all public policy work, education policies are demanding. Policy workers need to ‘know’ a lot—about the problems they are addressing, the people who need to be engaged, the promises they can make in response, the context they are working in, and the processes they will follow to implement. Most policy workers answer questions about such issues within the structures of plan and control processes used to devise budgets and projects. These structures limit their knowledge gathering, organization and sense-making activities to up-front planning activities, and even though sophisticated tools like Theories of Change suggest planners ‘know’ all that is needed for policy success, they often do not. Policies are often fraught with ‘unknowns’ that cannot be captured in passive planning processes and thus repeatedly undermine even the best laid plans. Through a novel strategy that asks how much one knows about the answers to 25 essential policy questions, and an application to recent education policy interventions in Mozambique, this paper shows that it is possible to get real about unknowns in policy work. Just recognizing these unknowns exist—and understanding why they do and what kind of challenge they pose to policy workers—can help promote a more modest and realistic approach to doing complex policy work.
- Topic:
- Education, Government, and Public Policy
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Mozambique
9129. A Growth Diagnostic of Namibia
- Author:
- Ricardo Hausmann, Miguel Angel Santos, Douglas Barrios, Nikita Taniparti, Jorge Tudela Pye, Jose Francisco Muci, and Jessie Lu
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- In the thirty years that have passed since independence, Namibia has been characterized by its over-reliance on its mineral resource wealth, procyclicality of macroeconomic policy, and large income disparities. After an initial decade marked by nation building and slow growth (1990-2000), the Namibian economy embarked on a rapid growth acceleration that lasted 15 years, within the context of the global commodity super cycle. Favorable terms of trade translated into an investment and export boom in the mining sector, which was amplified to the non-tradable sector of the economy through a significant public expenditure spree from 2008 onwards. Between 2000 and 2015 income and consumption per capita expanded at an average annual rate of 3.1%, poverty rates halved, and access to essential public goods expanded rapidly. As the commodity super cycle came to an end and the fiscal space was exhausted, Namibia experienced a significant reversal. Investment and exports plummeted, bringing GDP per capita to contract by 2.1% between 2015-2019. With debt-to-GDP ratios 3.5 times higher than those in 2008, the country embarked on a fiscal consolidation effort which brought the primary fiscal deficit from 6.8% of GDP in 2016 to 0.6% by March 2020. Along all these years, inequality has been endemic and is reflected across demographic characteristics and employment status. At present, a large majority of Namibians are unable to access well-paying formal sector jobs, as these tend to be particularly scarce outside of the public sector. Looking forward, the road to sustained inclusive growth and broad prosperity entails expanding the formal private labor market by diversifying the Namibian economy, while at the same time removing the barriers preventing Namibians from accessing these opportunities inherited from the apartheid.
- Topic:
- Development, Economy, Economic Growth, Inclusion, and Skills
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Namibia
9130. Can Africa Compete in World Soccer?
- Author:
- Matt Andrews
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- In March 2021, the Confederation of African Football’s President, Patrice Motsepe, insisted that “An African team must win the World Cup in the near future.” This visionary statement is infused with hope—not just for an African World Cup victory but for a fuller future in which African men’s soccer competes with world soccer’s elite. This paper asks if there is any chance of this happening. It suggests a simple method to assess how a country competes as both a ‘participant’ and a ‘rival’ and uses this method to examine how Africa’s top countries compete in world soccer. This analysis points to a gap between such countries and the world’s best, which has grown in recent decades— even though some African countries do compete more over time. The paper concludes by suggesting that Africa’s hope of winning the World Cup is not impossible but demands more active work, focused particularly on ensuring top African countries compete with more high-quality competition more often. The conclusion also suggests that the research approach might be relevant beyond a study of African soccer. It could particularly help shed light on how well African countries compete (as participants and rivals) in the world economy.
- Topic:
- Sports, Economy, Soccer, and Competition
- Political Geography:
- Africa
9131. Trade Liberalization, Collective Bargaining and Workers: Wages and Working Conditions
- Author:
- Bastien Alvarez, Gianluca Orefice, and Farid Toubal
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
- Abstract:
- Using large scale data on Eastern European workers, we show significant and sizable deteriorations of their wages and working conditions in regions that faced large tariff liberalization and strong erosion of collective bargaining over the process of accession to the European Union. Import tariffs liberalization reduces workers' wages. The deterioration of working conditions is mostly driven by increased labor demand due to the improvement of Eastern countries' international market access. The erosion of collective bargaining worsens wages and working conditions.
- Topic:
- Labor Issues, Tariffs, Collective Bargaining, and Wages
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Eastern Europe
9132. EU in Search of a WTO-Compatible Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism
- Author:
- Cecilia Bellora and Lionel Fontagné
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
- Abstract:
- To meet the targets of the EU’s ”Fit for 55” package, the European Commission proposes to implement a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). The CBAM is firstly intended to avoid carbon leakages, but it also deals with the thorny issue of the compliance by European producers in carbon-intensive industries. In addition, its design, as voted by the European Council on March 15, 2022, questions the compatibility of the CBAM with World Trade Organization (WTO) rules. The CBAM puts a price on carbon contained in imported products whose production-related emissions have not been taxed (or not at the same level as in the European Union) by the exporter country, in order to offset the difference in carbon prices at the border. This paper aims to quantify the economic and environmental impacts of different CBAM design choices with the aim of complying with WTO rules. Different from the previous literature, we evaluate the various options with a dynamic general equilibrium model featuring imperfect competition, global value chains, green-house gas emissions and endogenous price of emission quotas. We show that CBAM is effective in reducing carbon leakages. But its design leads to an increase in the price of carbon quotas in the European Emission Trading System (ETS) market. Losses in competitiveness on export markets are expected, also for downstream sectors not covered by the EU ETS nor the CBAM. Eventually, offsetting the difference in carbon prices at the border comes at a cost to the enforcing jurisdiction, suggesting that the CBAM was not designed as a beggar-thy-neighbour policy.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, European Union, Carbon Emissions, WTO, and Green Transition
- Political Geography:
- Europe
9133. Second-generation immigrants and native attitudes toward immigrants in Europe
- Author:
- Oscar Barrera, Isabelle Bensidoun, and Anthony Edo
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
- Abstract:
- This paper investigates the role played by immigrants and their children in shaping native attitudes toward immigrants in the European Union. By exploiting the 2017 Special Eurobarometer on immigrant integration, we show that countries with a relatively high share of immigrants are more likely to believe that immigrants are a burden on the welfare system and worsen crime. In contrast, native opinions on the impact of immigration on culture and the labor market are unrelated to the presence of immigrants. We also find that the effects of second-generation immigrants on pro-immigrant attitudes toward security and fiscal concerns are positive (as opposed to first-generation immigrants). Finally, we find no impact of the immigrant share on the attitudes of natives supporting far-left or left political parties, while it is the most negative among respondents affiliated with far-right parties.
- Topic:
- Children, European Union, Immigrants, Ideology, Welfare, and Nativism
- Political Geography:
- Europe
9134. The Role of Storage in Commodity Markets: Indirect Inference Based on Grains Data
- Author:
- Christophe Gouel and Nicolas Legrand
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
- Abstract:
- Understanding commodity prices dynamics is of crucial importance for assessing the persistence of cost-push costs or for countries dependent on commodity exports. Unfortunately, despite decades of research, the workhorse theoretical model in the field, the rational expectations storage model, is yet to be empirically validated. This paper provides the first full empirical test of the storage model. We first build a new storage model featuring a supply response, long-run demand and cost trends, and four structural shocks. We then develop a flexible empirical approach which relies on the indirect inference method and exploits the joint dynamics of prices and quantities unlike previous estimations which only use price information. The information contained in quantities is essential to relax restrictive identifying assumptions and empirically assess the overall consistency of the model's new features. Finally, we carry out a structural estimation on the aggregate index of the world most important staple food products: maize, rice, soybeans, and wheat. The results show that our extended storage model is consistent with most of the moments in the data, including the high price autocorrelation of which up to 42% can be explained by the transfer of inventories over time. They also show that, although for these commodities supply shocks are the main drivers of market dynamics, over the past 60 years all price spikes have been associated with large positive demand shocks.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, International Trade and Finance, Commodities, and Price
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
9135. The Culture-Promotion Effect of Multinationals on Trade: the IKEA case
- Author:
- Dylan Bourny, Daniel Mirza, and Jamel Saadaoui
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
- Abstract:
- In this paper, we investigate how some MNEs which spread their home culture over time and space to the rest of the world are affecting, in turn, trade flows from home. By selling products embodying cultural information related to their country of origin, those MNEs embrace the role of ambassadors of their home country. We argue that IKEA offers an ideal case to identify a multinational's culture-promotion effect on trade. We build a dataset on IKEA's presence in foreign markets between 1995 and 2015 and merge it with disaggregated product level trade between pairs of countries. We find solid evidence of an externality linked to IKEA: a setting of an IKEA new store in a destination increases trade flows by around 2% from Sweden for products that resemble to what the multinational offers (despite being completely unrelated to that multinational). This result is driven primarily by the products identified to encompass a high-cultural content. Other robustness checks and tests seem to be very much consistent with the hypothesis of IKEA promoting the Swedish culture to the world.
- Topic:
- Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Culture, and Multinational Corporations
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
9136. Not all political relation shocks are alike: Assessing the impacts of US-China tensions on the oil market
- Author:
- Yifei Cai, Valérie Mignon, and Jamel Saadaoui
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
- Abstract:
- This paper assesses the effects of US-China political tensions on the oil market. Relying on a quantitative measure of these relationships, we investigate how their dynamics impact oil demand, supply, and prices over various periods, starting from 1971 to 2019. To this end, we estimate a structural vector autoregressive model as well as local projections and show that political tensions between the two countries pull down oil demand and raise supply at medium- and long-run horizons. Overall, our findings show that conflicting relationships between these two major players in the oil market may have crucial impacts, such as the development of new strategic partnerships.
- Topic:
- Security, Oil, Conflict, Rivalry, and Energy Crisis
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
9137. Regional Diffusion of Foreign Demand Shocks Through Trade and Ownership Networks
- Author:
- Lionel Fontagné and Gianluca Santoni
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
- Abstract:
- International demand shocks are transmitted within the trade and ownership firms' networks and impact directly or indirectly domestic firm productivity and labor misallocation. Considering manufacturing firms for Italy, Spain and France over the period 2009-2017, we quantify these transmission channels from the global economy to the domestic firms, and within the domestic economy across locations, sectors and firms. We compute in a shift share fashion international demand shock at the district-sector-year level as plausibly exogenous to individual firms. Our results confirm that global shocks are transmitted through trade networks and that this transmission is largely mediated by firms' ownership networks both across and within the borders of the three countries.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Demand, and Productivity
- Political Geography:
- Europe, France, Spain, and Italy
9138. The Heterogenous Effects of Employers’ Concentration on Wages: Better Sorting or Uneven Rent Extracting?
- Author:
- Axelle Arquie and Julia Bertin
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
- Abstract:
- We show empirically for France that labor market concentration decreases wages heterogeneously, with the lowest earners being the most vulnerable, and increases local wage inequality within occupations. If concentration allows employers to improve worker selection, both inequality and efficiency gains could materialize. However, based on a simple formalization, we interpret the findings that employer concentration increases within-firm inequality and decreases between-firm inequality as evidence against such a sorting mechanism. We also find evidence that employer concentration does not increase positive assortative matching. The results therefore suggest that concentration increases inequality through the relatively reduced bargaining position of the lowest earners.
- Topic:
- Labor Issues, Inequality, Labor Market, and Wages
- Political Geography:
- Europe and France
9139. The Usual Suspects: Offender Origin, Media Reporting and Natives’ Attitudes Towards Immigration
- Author:
- Sekou Keita, Thomas Renault, and Jerome Valette
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
- Abstract:
- This paper analyses whether the systematic disclosure of criminals’ origins in the press affects natives’ attitudes towards immigration. It takes advantage of the unilateral change in reporting policy announced by the German newspaper Sächsische Zeitung in July, 2016. Combining individual-level panel data from the German Socio-Economic Panel from 2014 to 2018 with 402,819 crime-related articles in German newspapers and those newspapers’ market shares, we find that systematically mentioning the origins of criminals increases the relative salience of natives’ criminality and reduces natives’ concerns about immigration, breaking the implicit link between immigration and crime.
- Topic:
- Media, Immigrants, Discrimination, and Nativism
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
9140. Skilled Immigration, Task Allocation and the Innovation of Firms
- Author:
- Anna Maria Mayda, Gianluca Orefice, and Gianluca Santoni
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
- Abstract:
- This paper analyses the impact of skilled migrants on the innovation (patenting) activity of French firms between 1995 and 2010, and investigates the underlying mechanism. We present district-level and firm-level estimates and address endogeneity using a modified version of the shift-share instrument. Skilled migrants increase the number of patents at both the district and firm level. Large, high-productivity and capital-intensive firms benefit the most, in terms of innovation activity, from skilled immigrant workers. Importantly, we provide evidence that one channel through which the effect works is task specialization (as in Peri and Sparber, 2009). The arrival of skilled immigrants drives French skilled workers towards language-intensive, managerial tasks while foreign skilled workers specialize in technical, research-oriented tasks. This mechanism manifests itself in the estimated increase in the share of foreign inventors in patenting teams as a consequence of skilled migration. Through this channel, greater innovation is the result of productivity gains from specialization.
- Topic:
- Business, Immigrants, Innovation, and Skilled Labor
- Political Geography:
- Europe and France
9141. Current Account Balances’ Divergence in the Euro Area: an Appraisal of the Underlying Forces
- Author:
- Emmanuelle Faure, Carl Grekou, and Valérie Mignon
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
- Abstract:
- This paper revisits the crucial issue of current account imbalances and focuses on the determinants of their gaps between eurozone Member States. We conduct robust estimations of the current account balances for a panel of ten founding euro area economies and construct a measure that allows us to diagnose why some countries have started to diverge from the eurozone mean in the last two decades. Our findings show evidence of remaining differences in countries’ economic development, meaning that real macroeconomic convergence has failed in the zone. Price and cost competitiveness, as well as fiscal balances, have also participated in this growing macroeconomic divergence. Overall, while the European authorities cannot influence the part of the current account gaps due to demographic factors, the role of fiscal redistribution and investment at the euro area level could help achieve macroeconomic convergence and thus reduce current accounts’ divergence in the zone.
- Topic:
- Economics, Regional Cooperation, European Union, Eurozone, and Regionalism
- Political Geography:
- Europe
9142. Estonia as an Area of Russian Influence: Analysis and Synthesis of the Kremlin’s Methodology of Exerting Influence on Tallinn’s Political and Social Stability
- Author:
- Jacek Bil
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Polish Political Science Yearbook
- Institution:
- Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
- Abstract:
- Russia's hostile actions against the Estonian state structures take the form of soft power, which can be observed in such areas as the activities of the Russian-speaking minority, media coverage, or through the use of coercion when it comes to fuel sales. This article presents qualitative methods of measuring Russian influence on Estonia. An observable trend in international relations is replacing hard power with soft power, commonly used against states within the sphere of interest of certain geopolitical entities. It is more difficult to identify the latter and prove it results from an aggressor's deliberate actions. Information warfare, including disinformation and propaganda, is one of the means Russia uses to exert political influence. By accepting the offer of a political and military alliance with the Western world, the Baltic States have become a threat to the Kremlin's imperialist aspirations. Russia's direct military actions against Estonia and the other Baltic states would have provoked a strong reaction and could even have led to military confrontation. However, the Russian government wishes to avoid it and, for the time being, limits itself to soft power measures.
- Topic:
- Hegemony, Regionalism, Strategic Stability, Foreign Interference, and Influence
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Eastern Europe, and Estonia
9143. Russia Against Ukraine Before the European Court of Human Rights. The Empire Strikes Back?
- Author:
- Milena Ingelevic-Citak
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Polish Political Science Yearbook
- Institution:
- Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
- Abstract:
- In July 2021, Russia submitted its first inter-state complaint against Ukraine to the European Court of Human Rights. It was an unexpected and intriguing step of the Russian government, especially since many of the presented allegations are linked to the events that initiated the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Referring to the hostilities that began in 2014, the international community was, in principle, unanimous in assessing who the aggressor was. The focus of this research is the strategy of the Russian Federation in its recently initiated legal battle before the Strasbourg Court. This paper presents an attempt to outline the possible motives for taking such a step. Moscow's position on this case is particularly puzzling, as some of the allegations concern the Crimean Peninsula, widely recognized under international law as territory occupied by Russia. In spite of that, doubt arises about the strategic objectives of the Russian authorities in the conflict with Ukraine; the question is whether the actions taken by Russia fall within the scope of its previous strategy or if there has been a new turn in the matter. The first part of this paper outlines the background of the given conflict, the second details Russian policy after the annexation of Crimea, and the third, which is crucial for the formulating of conclusions, presents considerations on Russia's possible motivation and goals in filing a complaint to the European Court Human Rights. The research was conducted mainly based on the merits of the complaint, the statements of the representatives of Russia and Ukraine in the matter, the author's observations, and practitioners' considerations.
- Topic:
- Security, Conflict, Regionalism, European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR), and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
9144. Hybrid Warfare or Hybrid Threat – The Weaponization of Migration as an Example of the Use of Lawfare – Case Study of Poland
- Author:
- Piotr Lubinski
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Polish Political Science Yearbook
- Institution:
- Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
- Abstract:
- This article aims to address the issue of alleged hybrid warfare attacks on Lithuania, Latvia, and Poland. The scope of the article covers the Belarus operations conducted in 2021. Firstly, the author addresses the issue of pushing migrants from a descriptive perspective. Secondly, he debates whether Belarus operation was conducted within the scope of hybrid warfare, hybrid threat, and lawfare? The author concludes that the Republic of Belarus has operated lawfare falling within the hybrid threat spectrum. It means that the situation is not to be classified under the law of armed conflict from the perspective of international and non-international armed conflicts and ius ad bellum violation. Thirdly, the author claims that Belarus has violated international law, so certain legal redress is appropriate and justified. Belarus's actions may result in a court proceeding before the International Court of Justice and before other international institutions.
- Topic:
- Migration, Law, Hybrid Warfare, and Hybrid Threats
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Poland
9145. Psychological Determinants of Individual Radicalisation
- Author:
- Elzbieta Posluszna
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Polish Political Science Yearbook
- Institution:
- Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
- Abstract:
- The paper aims to define the psychological foundations of lone wolf activism. The analysis that facilitated attaining this goal was based on the Nietzschean concept of resentment theory of compensatory revaluating values that explain the relationships between inferiority and fundamentalism, fanaticism, and ideologically motivated violence. Based on a phenomenological examination of the phenomenon, the author demonstrates that lone wolf activism is founded on two psychologically and sociologically determined successive processes. The first one occurs when a sense of personal inferiority becomes the source of an envy-based hostile attitude toward the world. Later on, this feeling, due to personality defence mechanisms, which bring about the falsification of “primary desires” and the generation of “secondary desires”, transforms into fundamentalism. The second process takes place when, as the result of fundamentalist legitimisation that arise on the level of social rivalry, given fundamentalism is destituted, resulting in fanaticism. The author believes that the knowledge of both processes is necessary to recognise and combat the terrorist activity of lone ideologically motivated individuals.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Radicalization, Psychology, Legitimacy, and Social Order
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
9146. Strategic Ambiguity in US-Taiwan Relations During the Donald Trump Administration
- Author:
- Filip Grzegorzewski
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Polish Political Science Yearbook
- Institution:
- Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
- Abstract:
- Strategic ambiguity, or the deliberate policy of uncertainty as to whether the United States would use force to defend Taiwan against an invasion by the People's Republic of China, has been the centrepiece of US policy towards the Taiwan issue for decades. This paper discusses the factors driving the redefinition of strategic ambiguity and its recalibration throughout Donald Trump's presidency (2017–2021). The fundamental driver of this change was to balance the rising power of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The paper applied offensive realism as a theoretical framework for its analysis. Under President Donald Trump, Washington modified its policy of strategic ambiguity, explicitly framing relations with Taiwan within a broader Indo-Pacific strategy. While the US retained key elements of strategic ambiguity, including the 'One China' policy, it added new features to deploy it offensively against Beijing's growing regional hegemony. The increased dynamism and unpredictability of relations with Taiwan were matched by a welcoming attitude towards strengthening Taiwanese identity and highlighting the systemic differences between communist China and democratic Taiwan. America stepped up arms sales and encouraged Taiwan to build its self-defence capabilities. Washington engaged in countering Chinese attempts to isolate Taiwan internationally and included it in restructuring global supply chains. Although the United States has not formally revised the boundaries of the 'One China' policy, the modification of strategic ambiguity increased Taiwan's prominence in US-China power competition and pushed back the prospect of peaceful unification.
- Topic:
- Security, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America
9147. Extraordinary Legal Measures and Their Application as a Response of States to the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic
- Author:
- Boguslaw Stanislaw Przywora and Karol Dobrzeniecki
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Polish Political Science Yearbook
- Institution:
- Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
- Abstract:
- The topic of the present article is the response of states to the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic by using extraordinary legal measures provided for in their constitutions and legislation. By reference to the research project's findings, the authors characterise the legal solutions in selected jurisdictions and attempt to demonstrate the relationship between the application of emergency measures and the specific political system of states. By doing so, the authors consider such factors as the territory, population, or type of political regime.
- Topic:
- Governance, Pandemic, COVID-19, Health Crisis, and Legal Sector
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
9148. European Security Management at the National Level. A Comparative Analysis of Strategies for the Development of Defence Capability in the United Kingdom and Poland
- Author:
- Joanna Iwancz and Bartłomiej H. Toszek
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Polish Political Science Yearbook
- Institution:
- Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
- Abstract:
- The article presents the positions of the UK and Polish governments on the importance of European security management as a factor influencing and shaping the defence doctrine in both states. Building on the systemic nature of European security, security management concepts, as defined in UK and Poland’s strategies for developing defence capabilities, have been examined using a system analysis. The assessment of the issue from the perspective of the UK and Polish governments is based on a decision-making analysis, while differences in the approach to European security are demonstrated through a comparative method. The authors have shown that the actual perception of European security as part of the global order is a factor determining the current involvement of the UK Government in the process of security management. However, the Polish government has shown interest in similar actions only to the extent these are convergent with national security.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, and Poland
9149. Ancillary Units as a Tool of Sublocal Governance in the Polish Major Cities
- Author:
- Malgorzata Madej
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Polish Political Science Yearbook
- Institution:
- Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
- Abstract:
- After the post-communist transition, decentralisation and subsidiarity have become one of Poland's major principles of political organisation. Moreover, especially the original 1990 reform and establishment of self-governing communes are regarded as a success story, not only in improving the quality of governance and public service provision but also in the civil society and citizen participation, as evidenced by the development of modern urban movements. The article explores legal possibilities for further decentralisation of municipalities, analysing the role of ancillary units in regional capitals. Ancillary units in Poland have developed differently in the countryside and urban communes. Relying on publicly available information and data provided by the respective municipal offices, the article describes the ancillary units' statutory role, competencies, and actual activities. The findings enable the assessment of the application of the sublocal decentralisation solution in Polish cities and the identification of its benefits and shortcomings.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Governance, Urban, Local, and Post-Soviet Space
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Poland
9150. Forms of the Government Administration’s Impact on the Activities of Local Governments During the COVID-19 Pandemic
- Author:
- Maciej Serowaniec and Piotr Paczka
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Polish Political Science Yearbook
- Institution:
- Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
- Abstract:
- The primary burden of tackling the pandemic COVID-19 lies with the state as the entity responsible for protecting the health and life of its citizens. Hence, it can be argued that the focus of the pandemic-induced changes to the Polish legal order was on administrative law, which not only sets out the principles of the functioning of the State as the executive power but also governs the relations between the government, local government and citizens, which had to be significantly modified during the pandemic. It would be impossible to analyse and discuss all the emergency measures that appeared in Poland’s administrative law due to the threats posed by the pandemic. The subject matter of the present study is the analysis of the legal solutions adopted in the Republic of Poland in the sphere of public law in connection with the spread of the virus and particular provisions shaping relationships between the two basic structural branches of Polish public administration, viz. the government administration and the local-government administration. The following part of this study will accordingly be devoted to the analysis of the legislative solution contained in Article 11h of the COVID-19 Act, establishing a legal framework for issuing binding instructions to, among others, the various bodies of local governments, local-government legal persons and local-government organisational entities without legal personality.
- Topic:
- Governance, Leadership, Local, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Poland