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2. The Economic Consequences of Russia-Ukraine War for Azerbaijan
- Author:
- Emin Mammadov
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- The year 2020 posed an unprecedented challenge to the World economy with the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic shrinking the global GDP by 6,7 % and bringing worldwide severe economic repercussions. Economic recovery is in continuation process in which the non-hydrocarbon sector acts as the main driver with a strong contribution of the oil and gas sector as well coupled with the rising demand for, and price of, oil that can further strengthen overall economic performance, however risks in the scenario are vivid.
- Topic:
- Economy, Risk, COVID-19, and Economic Recovery
- Political Geography:
- Azerbaijan
3. Who was Impacted and How? Covid-19 Pandemic and the Long Uneven Recovery in India
- Author:
- Mrinalini Jha and Rahul Lahoti
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
- Abstract:
- We investigate the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on income levels, poverty, and inequality in both the immediate aftermath and during the long uneven recovery till December 2021 using high-frequency household survey data from India. We find that the average all-India household income dropped between 30 to 38 percent during the months of the nationwide lockdown of April and May 2020. The subsequent recovery remained incomplete and was unevenly spread over the population even twenty-one months after the start of the pandemic. Households on an average continued to make 16 to 19 percent lower cumulative income in the post-lockdown period, but have mostly recovered after the second wave in the second half of 2021. Poverty more than doubled during the lockdown and was 50 to 80 percent higher in the post-lockdown period in comparison to the pre-pandemic levels. In the post-second-wave phase, poverty was still slightly higher than in the pre-pandemic period, and any progress in poverty reduction that would have been achieved under normal circumstances over the two years was lost. Inequality too spiked during the lockdown, but returned back to the pre-pandemic levels. Using an event study model we find that the initial shock of the lockdown was more severe for the bottom of the income distribution, but the bottom also experienced a faster recovery. On the other hand, the top end of the distribution experienced smaller declines during the lockdown but they have been slow to recover. The bottom deciles in any period typically constituted households working in contact-intensive, informal, less secure occupations that were hit the hardest during the lockdown, but were quick to recover when the economy opened up. The upper end of the distribution constituted households working in less contact-intensive, formal, secure occupations that were shielded from the sudden shock but were slow to recover.
- Topic:
- Poverty, Employment, COVID-19, Economic Recovery, and Income
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and India
4. Using RRF resources to kick-start a job-rich recovery in Greece
- Author:
- Manos Matsaganis and Georgios Manalis
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- The Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) is a golden opportunity for those member states that were most badly hit first by the debt crisis then by the pandemic. Greece, one of the largest beneficiaries in per capita terms, is due to receive very significant resources that can help arrest the decline of the 2010s. Can these resources be spent wisely and efficiently enough to kickstart the process of inclusive and sustainable growth? This paper briefly reviews the Greek National Recovery and Resilience Plan (Greece 2.0), assessing its potential contribution to upgrading the economy’s growth model, enhancing skills, and boosting employment. In 2007-19, total investment in Greece shrank by a stunning 70% in real terms. Over the same period, public investment fell by 62%, business investment by 44%, and household investment (on housing, mostly) by 89%. Under-investment constrains growth and undermines the future prospects of the Greek economy. The Recovery and Resilience Facility offers Greece a unique opportunity to bridge the investment gap, giving a boost to the sustainable recovery of the Greek economy. Technically, Greece 2.0, the country’s National Recovery and Resilience Plan is competently drafted, as its favourable reception by the European Commission indicates. Still, critical issues abound. In this sense, Greece 2.0 embodies the contradictions of the current juncture. On the one hand, there is a consensus that the Greek economy should rebalance, by pursuing a growth strategy that relies much more on exports than in the recent past, and much less on domestic consumer demand fuelled by debt. On the other hand, the legacy of the past weighs heavily on social and political actors, limiting their room for manoeuvre. The list is daunting. It remains to be seen how the above will play out over the next few years.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economy, Crisis Management, Resilience, and Economic Recovery
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Greece
5. Solidarity Taxes in the Context of Economic Recovery Following the COVID-19 Pandemic
- Author:
- Attiya Waris
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- There are multiple examples of solidarity taxes imposed across country contexts over previous decades. The solidarity taxes that were levied were done to mitigate effects of a crisis such as a pandemic, as well as rebuilding of nations that had been affected by world wars (examples include Zimbabwe and Germany). Considering the renewed interest in solidarity taxes in the wake of COVID-19, author Attiya Waris reviews the history of solidarity taxes, and discusses key lessons from the past, in addition to drawing these lessons and findings into policy reccomendations moving forward.
- Topic:
- Tax Systems, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Economic Recovery
- Political Geography:
- Germany, Zimbabwe, and Global Focus
6. A Review of the Performance of the 2021 First Semester Budget
- Author:
- Mbewe Kalikeka
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
- Abstract:
- Zambia’s 2021 National Budget is being executed under the theme, “Stimulate Economic Recovery and Build Resilience to Safeguard Livelihoods and Protect the Vulnerable.” During the budget planning process the COVID-19 pandemic took a heavy toll on economic activity that led the economy to contract by 3% in 2020. This is on the back of the economy having already being vulnerable to external shocks due to its structural weaknesses. Therefore, in line with aspirations to stimulate economic recovery, the 2021 National Budget set the growth target at 1.8%, underscoring a strong desire to crutch the economy to its recovery.
- Topic:
- Budget, Macroeconomics, Fiscal Policy, COVID-19, and Economic Recovery
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Zambia
7. Nudging for Recovery: Behavioral Economics and the implementation of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan
- Author:
- Demosthenes Kollias
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- With the National Recovery and Resilience Plan, Greece is presented with yet another opportunity to catch up with global trends. At the same time, behavioral economics are being established worldwide as a valuable asset in the policy maker’s toolkit. The paper -mainly focusing on taxation, labor market policy, and climate change- aims to examine the behavioral conundrum that creates frictions and inefficiency in the domains outlined above and to offer concrete and quantifiable policy proposals, in accordance with the goals of Greece 2.0. Regarding tax evasion, for example, one can estimate at least €1 billion in additional tax revenue if the proposals are implemented.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Economics, Tax Systems, Labor Market, and Economic Recovery
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Greece
8. Will corporate debt choke the post-COVID-19 recovery?
- Author:
- Frederico Mollet
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Policy Centre (EPC)
- Abstract:
- Europe’s economic recovery is threatened by the corporate debt overhang created in the wake of the pandemic. Even as vaccines roll out, Europe faces the prospect of a prolonged retrenchment as indebted firms pull back investments and repair their balance sheets. Insolvency procedures have gradually improved over the past decade in Europe, but decisive and swift public action is needed to take advantage of these reforms. Given the scale of the crisis, Frederico Mollet argues in favour of a comprehensive European restructuring strategy. EU member states and the Commission must step in to provide the resources, guidance, and coordination necessary to push through this monumental restructuring. This strategy would furthermore benefit from common European guidelines and criteria for creditors and debtors. It will not only increase the likelihood of success but also protect the level playing field. Lack of a clear strategy and coordinated approach will result in a drawn-out restructuring process that pushes too many viable firms into liquidation and permanently hampers the economic recovery. Centring on private restructurings would also minimise the use of public funds at a time when governments have to deal with multiple competing fiscal pressures.
- Topic:
- Debt, Political Economy, and Economic Recovery
- Political Geography:
- Europe
9. Recovery and reform in the EU’s most vulnerable regions
- Author:
- Alison Hunter and Marta Pilati
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Policy Centre (EPC)
- Abstract:
- Europe’s most vulnerable regions, characterised by persistent low growth and poverty, face a systemic lack of specific EU support. These regions display particularly high levels of vulnerability to the social, economic and territorial impacts of COVID-19, which will affect their recovery trajectories. They risk being left further behind in the EU’s complex pathway towards ‘a green and digital recovery’. The Union’s lack of focus and action for investing in these most vulnerable regions must be addressed. First and foremost, EU institutions and member states should recognise that some territories will struggle much more than others in their recovery trajectories. Ignoring their plight would have potentially far-reaching consequences. The EU’s ‘convergence machine’ could be damaged irreparably, with long-term – and potentially political – consequences. Alison Hunter and Marta Pilati continue their extensive research on the Union’s low-growth, poor regions, calling for the founding of a specific EU initiative to support them as well as further targeting by the existing policy architecture. In particular, they recommend: creating an EU policy space for regions experiencing long-term low growth and poverty, to promote the value and visibility of place-based support; aligning Cohesion Policy and the Recovery and Resilience Facility for improved policy coherence and greater investment impact; and tailoring support for growth-enhancing reforms in the EU’s most vulnerable regions. The EU’s green and digital recovery strategy fails to account for the specific needs of its poor and low-growth regions. Existing disparities and fragmentation challenges across the Union could widen or even become entrenched, casting new doubts on the EU’s ability and commitment to strengthen its convergence agenda and execute a just transition. The fallout could lead to a rise in territorial and political tensions while leaving many vulnerable places behind. Hunter and Pilati outline an agenda for a new EU initiative that champions reform support for these vulnerable territories and improves their prospects for a digital and green recovery.
- Topic:
- Political Economy, Poverty, Reform, European Union, Digital Economy, Economic Growth, Green Technology, Recovery, COVID-19, and Economic Recovery
- Political Geography:
- Europe
10. Rethinking EU economic governance: The European Semester
- Author:
- Frederico Mollet
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Policy Centre (EPC)
- Abstract:
- In the debates over the future of the EU’s economic governance, the reform of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) usually takes centre stage. But the European Semester – the framework governing economic policy coordination and country surveillance – is also critical. Reforming and strengthening it is vital given the multiple challenges the EU faces, from the twin green and digital transitions to implementing the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) and tackling the macroeconomic and structural scars left by COVID-19. This Policy Brief, the second in a series of EPC papers that reassess the EU's economic governance policies, sets out proposals for reforming the European Semester across three strands: (i) integrating the RRF into the Semester; (ii) drawing on the positive lessons of the RRF process; and (iii) improving the effectiveness of cross-cutting policy coordination and the Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure (MIP).
- Topic:
- Governance, European Union, Economy, COVID-19, and Economic Recovery
- Political Geography:
- Europe
11. How Is the Asian Economy Recovering from the COVID-19 Pandemic? Evidence from the Emissions of Air Pollutants
- Author:
- Kazunobu Hayakawa
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- This study empirically examines how economic and social activities in Asia were affected by the COVID-19 pandemic by using the emissions amounts of various air pollutants to represent those activities. Review of the emissions data suggests that from 2019 to 2020, the amount of emitted air pollutants decreased in most subnational regions in Asia. Data also show how economic and social activities have restarted in some regions; regression analyses are used to uncover the regions that restarted early. Regional characteristics are identified by employing a remotely sensed land cover dataset (i.e. ESALC) and OpenStreetMap. Results reveal that for Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) members, economic and social activities in cropland, industrial estates, accommodations, restaurants, education, and public services still have not returned to normal.
- Topic:
- Environment, Economy, Pandemic, COVID-19, Air Pollution, and Economic Recovery
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Southeast Asia
12. China's Ties with Southeast Asia : From Green Shoots to Sustained Recovery
- Author:
- Kensuke Tanaka
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- China's rebound happened relatively quickly owing to a large extent to timely macroeconomic policy responses to the crisis. Lagging somewhat behind China, most Southeast Asian countries have now entered the transition from recession to recovery. Some export-dependent Southeast Asian countries shifted their export destination to China to benefit from its early recovery. This switch of export destination to China illustrates China's important role in leading the recovery of the region. Enhancing regional macroeconomic co-operation would help reduce vulnerability of the region and ensure a sustained recovery. Regional macroeconomic co-operation remains at an early stage in Southeast Asia, but possibilities for further co-operation should be explored.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Economic Recovery
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Southeast Asia
13. The Long Road to African Tourism Recovery
- Author:
- Helmo Preuss
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- The Covid-19 pandemic wreaked havoc on the tourism industry in 2020, but this year a slow vaccine rollout and new variants means it will take a while to recover to pre-pandemic levels.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Tourism, Public Health, Vaccine, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Economic Recovery
- Political Geography:
- Africa
14. An Uneven Global Rebound Will Challenge Emerging-Market and Developing Economies
- Author:
- Maurice Obstfeld
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- As the US economy rebounds amid elevated inflationary pressures and Europe grows at a rapid clip, an uneven global rebound looms. Although emerging-market and developing economies (EMDEs) generally retain good access to global capital markets for now, their relatively slow pace of COVID-19 vaccination will continue to hamper their economic recoveries and strain their public finances—already stretched owing to the fiscal pressures of the pandemic over the past year and a half. Higher interest rates in the rich countries, particularly the United States, could tip EMDEs into liquidity and even solvency crises. The likelihood of crises is higher if advanced-economy central banks move abruptly, surprising markets. Global policymakers should prepare now by enhancing mechanisms for providing liquidity to EMDEs and, in cases of insolvency, for restructuring their sovereign debts. Perhaps even more important, the scope for uneven recovery can be limited if rich countries make an all-out effort to deliver vaccines globally and enhance less prosperous countries’ infrastructures for getting shots into arms.
- Topic:
- Emerging Markets, Inflation, Economic Development, COVID-19, and Economic Recovery
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
15. "Next Generation EU" Cities: Local Communities in a Post-Pandemic Future
- Author:
- Anna Lisa Boni and Tobia Zevi
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
- Abstract:
- As the world enters a new year, the Covid-19 pandemic is still upsetting our daily lives. And as 75% of EU citizens live in urban areas, cities are the most prominent stage both for responding to the health crisis, and for seizing opportunities to recover and move forward. Meanwhile, in 2020, EU countries agreed to Next Generation EU, a €750 billion recovery package that represents a once-in-a-generation opportunity. This report, produced in collaboration between ISPI and Eurocities, argues that cities should be given more say over how post-pandemic national recovery plans pan out between here and 2026, when all projects are supposed to be wrapping up. Indeed, the success of the EU recovery plans will hinge upon what cities do, or they don’t do over the next five years. How are cities rethinking their role within the “twin” green and digital transitions? How can they achieve gender parity, reduce inequalities, and preserve a vibrant cultural life?
- Topic:
- European Union, Cities, COVID-19, Health Crisis, and Economic Recovery
- Political Geography:
- Europe
16. China After Covid-19: Economic Revival and Challenges to the World
- Author:
- Alessia Amighini
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
- Abstract:
- The coronavirus pandemic that has rocked China since December 2019 has posed a gruelling test for the resilience of the country’s national economy. Now, as China emerges from its Covid-induced "recession", it feels like the worst is behind it. How did China manage to come out almost unscathed from the worst crisis in over a century? This Report examines how China designed and implemented its post-Covid recovery strategy, focussing on both the internal and external challenges the country had to face over the short- and medium-run. The book offers a comprehensive argument suggesting that, despite China having lost economic and political capital during the crisis, Beijing seems to have been strengthened by the “pandemic test”, thus becoming an even more challenging “partner, competitor and rival” for Western countries.
- Topic:
- Economy, Strategic Competition, COVID-19, and Economic Recovery
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
17. EU Employment Dynamics: The Pandemic Years and Beyond
- Author:
- Stefan Jestl and Robert Stehrer
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
- Abstract:
- The economic shock induced by the pandemic has plunged European economies into a recession. Lockdowns and social distancing measures have affected economic life in a substantial way, with industries and population groups facing varying difficulties. This study explores potential future employment dynamics across European industries and employment groups for the period up to 2026 by drawing on past sectoral trends and the latest macroeconomic forecast results from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Commission. A scenario analysis is also carried out, taking into account the great uncertainty and risks that are related to the baseline forecasts.
- Topic:
- Labor Issues, European Union, Employment, COVID-19, and Economic Recovery
- Political Geography:
- Europe
18. Democratization, Poverty Reduction and Risk Mitigation in Fragile and Post-Conflict States
- Author:
- Jamal Saghir and Ede Jorge Ijjasz-Vasquez
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of International Development, McGill University
- Abstract:
- The COVID-19 pandemic has caused the most severe recession in recent decades, with a cumulative loss to global GDP of around $9 trillion. Climate disasters continue to affect the most vulnerable populations and countries, affecting more than 50 million people in 2020. Investments in climate adaptation and resilience have been insufficient in recent years. Global investments only reached $30 billion in 2017-2018, against estimated needs in developing countries between $140 and $300 billion per year by 2030. As governments worldwide design and begin implementing post-pandemic economic recovery programs, investments in adaptation and resilience provide a unique opportunity to generate jobs, restart economic growth, and tackle the inequities made more acute by the pandemic. We discuss practical policy and program options to achieve these multiple objectives.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Science and Technology, Infrastructure, Investment, Resilience, COVID-19, and Economic Recovery
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus