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2681. Development and Metric Validity of “Escala De Fricção Logística (EFL)” for Assessment of Military Boarder Organizations’ Supply

Author:
Tassio Franchi, Angela Nogueira Neves, Luis Fernando Tavares Ferreira, and Eduardo Xavier Ferreira Glaser Migon
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
This article aimed to create and conduct a metric evaluation - with the establishment of evidence of construct validity and internal reliability – the Escala da Fricção Logística (EFL), adjusted for the Amazonian environment. Methodologically, the research is divided into two studies; the first, focused on the creation of the instrument, which followed already consolidated recommendations for measurement scales by theory. A second, in which the metric evaluation of the theoretical structure foreseen for the EFL is carried out. The items were evaluated through confirmatory factor analysis, with extraction by partial least squares, in order to generate evidence of construct validity and internal reliability. For this analysis, the EFL was answered by 110 military personnel who served in border organizations. The results indicated that the scale with 16 items divided into three factors - individual, environment and equipment - is valid and reliable to assess the logistical friction in the Amazon frontier region. An instrument is available that can be useful to generate data for the improvement of public policies in the areas of Defense and Transport.
Topic:
Border Control, Borders, Supply, Military, and Evaluation
Political Geography:
Brazil and Amazon Basin

2682. The Impact of the Ukraine War on Antarctic Geopolitics Through Fuzzy Cognitive Maps

Author:
Luiz Octavio Gaviao and Michael Bilac Barbosa de Oliveira
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
The purpose of this article is to evaluate the impact of the Ukrainian War on the geopolitics of Antarctica. Beyond the borders of the countries involved, the most immediate and noticeable impact of a conflict of this nature is evident in the economic environment. However, international relations are tested or shaken, exerting pressure on treaties and cooperation agreements between countries, through the reappearance of past political issues. In 1959, the Antarctic Treaty sought to protect the continent from territorial pressures capable of affecting its natural balance, but this type of conflict compromises international cooperation and brings to light old interests in resource exploration in that region. This complex system, composed of cause and effect forces that involve the interests of the different countries involved in Antarctic geopolitics, was quantitatively modeled by cognitive maps, which explore artificial intelligence concepts to evaluate the behavior of these forces. The results indicated trends in relation to 12 driving forces selected from the literature and evaluated by experts from the Brazilian Antarctic Program, allowing the evaluation of the dynamics of the system over time.
Topic:
International Relations, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, Geopolitics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Antarctica

2683. U.S. Grand Strategy in the Early Cold War: Priorities, Concerns and Policy Actions

Author:
Humayun Javed
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
The study aims to identify U.S. concerns and priorities in the immediate post-WWII era while exploring the primary American considerations in formulating a grand strategy during the early Cold War. The paper addresses the question that were Washington’s policy choices during the last stages of the Second World War and early Cold War primarily being driven by Soviet expansion in Eastern Europe. The study is qualitative in nature and uses exploratory research because the existing literature on the early Cold War does not sufficiently explain the rationale for American policymakers to adopt a global role. The research argues that the unmatched extent of U.S. power and influence, along with an ambitious vision to reshape the postwar institutional and security architecture, allowed Washington to formulate a grand strategy for its economic and political footprint in Asia and Europe, where the Soviet Union remained the only standing – yet immensely devastated – victorious power. Moscow’s own traditional insecurities on its western frontier and its considerable strategic influence and vision to shape the political and security landscape in Europe produced U.S.-Soviet tensions as their cooperation due to a common German threat had vanished. Therefore, American leadership was focused on taking global responsibility in the early Cold War to shape postwar international economic and political order in light of the prewar lessons and contain Soviet power and influence from jeopardizing U.S. preeminence on the global stage.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Cold War, History, Grand Strategy, and Soviet Union
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2684. The Great Reset and the Near-Term Implications for the Chinese Economy

Author:
R. Reghunanadhan and J. T. Karackattu
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
The Great Reset has had a severe impact on the Chinese economy, with implications domestically, and on the global supply chain. One consequence has been the decline in the overall market demand in China, with a significant negative impact on infrastructure development and the labour industry. A unique aspect is a survey is to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on innovation and integration of digital technologies in China. The authors explicate the impact of the Great Reset on the Chinese economy, the implications on the supply chains that China is a crucial part of, and the global implications thereof.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Economy, Innovation, COVID-19, Supply Chains, and Great Reset
Political Geography:
China and Asia

2685. Indonesia’s G20 Presidency and Middle Power Diplomacy

Author:
Tatok Djoko Sudiarto, Febry Triantama, and Bimantoro Kushari Pramono
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
International Politics has not been immune to the disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, revealing that a country's behavior patterns and policies are inextricably linked to its national interests and power distribution in the international system. In this context, developed countries have a relatively higher level of preparedness than developing nations, whether middle or small powers. It includes the ability of developed countries to produce vaccines, whereas developing states rely on imported vaccines. However, the presence of international organizations such as the G20, APEC, and ASEAN has not thoroughly resolved this issue. Consequently, efforts are required to resolve problems. These efforts exemplify the characteristics of diplomacy carried out by middle-powers like Indonesia. Through an analysis of the prioritized agendas of Indonesia's G20 Presidency, the present study discovered that preparing the agendas in question was intrinsically linked to Indonesia's efforrs to build bridges between developed and developing countries. Thus, Indonesia expected G20 could provide advantages to both developed and developing countries. In addition to employing the concept of middle power as an analytical framework, this research was conducted by scraping the web for relevant information, which was then analyzed using the Corpus-Assisted Discourse Study method.
Topic:
Development, Diplomacy, G20, Middle Power, and International Politics
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

2686. India’s Strategic Choices in the Multipolar World

Author:
Surendra Kumar Yadawa
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
The post-World War II landscape underwent a seismic shift, crystallising into a bipolar structure with the US-led West facing off against the Soviet Union, instigating the Cold War. However, the USSR's collapse in 1991 shattered this bipolarity, ushering in an era of American dominance (unipolarity). Yet, this once unassailable US-led global order is undergoing rapid contraction. In its wake, a fresh paradigm is unfolding as novel power centres coalesce to address shared dissatisfactions. Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran forge convergences, beckoning others to unite against US-led supremacy. Astonishingly, Saudi Arabia aligns with the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) as a dialogue partner, relegating its erstwhile oil-for-security doctrine to antiquity. Simultaneously, the Brazilian President advocates terminating dollar supremacy. In a bold affront, Russia challenges the US world order through its Ukrainian incursion. Notably, Emmanuel Macron declares Taiwan beyond the West's scope, potentially puncturing American hegemony. This paper fervently explores how the burgeoning multipolar world order engenders arenas for regional powers, scrutinising the prospects and hurdles that confront New Delhi as it navigates India’s foreign policy.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Cold War, History, and Multipolarity
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

2687. Turkey’s Dilemma and Strategic Stability

Author:
Jean-Pier de Vasconcellos Esquia and José Miguel Quedi Martins
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
This article deals with Turkey’s international relations and the impact of its choices in the International System (IS) in this new era marked by the return of competition between the world powers. Specifically, it discusses the Turkish dilemma, reduced to two possible courses of action: between adherence to revolutionary behavior, or association with the institutions of the Emerging Industrial Axis. This dilemma is confronted with Turkey’s trajectory since the end of the Ottoman Empire, in an explanatory historical effort. As for strategic stability, it should be clarified that it is understood as the set of elements that shape the ‘rules’ of the game in a multipolar world. The question that guides the research is how will Turkey’s international insertion take place? The hypothesis that runs through the text is that, unlike other times when Turkey has been subjugated by international constraints, this time it will be able to choose its form of insertion into the IS. The article is divided into five parts. The first concerns the predominance of necessity in Turkey’s IR trajectory. The second deals with the legacy of extra-economic coercion, which the US used during unipolarity, and the challenges this poses for strategic stability - which must be approached from a multidimensional perspective. The third part deals with Turkey’s insertion into the South-South Axis - it remains to be seen whether it will also join its institutions. The fourth part deals with revolutionary behavior. Finally, the fifth and last part deals with the role of the Middle East in the outcome of the Turkish dilemma.
Topic:
International Relations, History, Strategic Stability, International System, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

2688. Israeli, Palestinian, and American relations: Now and in the future (Session 3)

Author:
Peter Krause
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
The struggle over normalization and the future of American-Arab-Israeli relations in the MENA region
Topic:
International Relations, Normalization, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

2689. Israeli, Palestinian, and American relations: Now and in the future (Session 2)

Author:
Peter Krause
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
Words Matter: Understanding how Palestinians and Israelis Define, Use, and React to “Charged” Words from Terrorism to Settler, Intifada to Peace
Topic:
Terrorism, Peace, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, Israeli Settlers, Terminology, and Intifada
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

2690. Lessons from battlefield Ukraine: With Ukraine’s former defense minister Oleksii Reznikov

Author:
Oleksii Reznikov, Mariana Budjeryn, Carol Saivetz, and Elizabeth Wood
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
Lessons from battlefield Ukraine: A conversation with Ukraine’s former defense minister Oleksii Reznikov: Thursday, October 17th, 2024. Speaker: Oleksii Reznikov, Ukraine’s former defense minister, led Ukraine’s defense establishment in the lead up to Russia’s full-scale invasion and during the first year and a half of the war. Mr. Reznikov will discuss the successes and challenges of Ukraine’s defense effort, the role of technology and uncrewed systems, and the evolution of the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war. Discussant: Mariana Budjeryn, PhD, is a senior research associate with the Project on Managing the Atom (MTA) at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center. She is the author of "Inheriting the Bomb: The Collapse of the USSR and the Nuclear Disarmament of Ukraine." Co-Chairs: Carol Saivetz is a senior advisor in the MIT Security Studies Program. She is the author and contributing co-editor of books and articles on Soviet and now Russian foreign policy issues. Elizabeth Wood is the Ford International Professor of History at MIT. She is the author most recently of "Roots of Russia's War in Ukraine," as well as articles on Vladimir Putin, right-wing populism in Russia and Turkey, and more.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia and Ukraine

2691. Starr Forum: The 2024 US presidential election: The world is watching

Author:
Katrina Burgess, John Githongo, Prerna Singh, Daniel Ziblatt, and Evan Lieberman
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
Starr Forum: The 2024 US presidential election: The world is watching: Wednesday, October 2nd, 2024. Experts weigh-in on how citizens and leaders from other world regions are viewing the November 5th US election. What do they believe is at stake for their countries and regions? Is America still seen as a model for democracy? How do they view the candidates? SPEAKERS: Katrina Burgess on Latin America. Katrina Burgess is professor of political economy and director of the Henry J Leir Institute of Migration and Human Security at the Fletcher School at Tufts University. Her research areas include Latin America, political economy of development, comparative politics, and migration and diasporas. She is the writer and producer of Waylaid in Tijuana, a documentary film that explores US immigration policies. "Courting Migrants: How States Make Diasporas and Diasporas Make State," is one of her award-winning books. John Githongo on Africa. John Githongo hails from Kenya, where he was a journalist and became a leading light in the international Transparency movement. He has held a variety of government, non-government and academic appointments, and was recognized by Foreign Policy magazine as one of the world’s 100 top global thinkers. Among his many posts, he serves as a senior advisor to the Office of the President of South Sudan on governance. He currently resides at the MIT Center for International Studies as its prestigious Robert E Wilhelm fellow. Prerna Singh on Asia. Prerna Singh is the Mahatma Gandhi Associate Professor of Political Science and International Studies at Brown University. Her research interests include the comparative political economy of development; identity politics; and the politics of South Asia and East Asia. Her book, "How Solidarity Works for Welfare: Subnationalism and Social Development in India," analyzes the causes of variations in social welfare institutions and development by focusing on the dramatic divergences in social policies and outcomes across Indian provinces. Daniel Ziblatt on Europe. Daniel Ziblatt is the director of Harvard University's Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies where he is also Eaton Professor of Government at Harvard University. His research focuses on Europe and the comparative study of democracy. His recent book, "Tyranny of the Minority: Why American Democracy Reached the Breaking Point," co-authored with Steve Levitsky, provides an analysis of American democracy in comparative perspective. Moderator: Evan Lieberman is the Total Professor of Political Science and Contemporary Africa and the director of the MIT Center for International Studies. He conducts research on the political-economy of development, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. He studies the democratic politics of governing ethnically and racially diverse societies, including the challenges of public health, climate adaptation, and ensuring respect for human dignity. Lieberman is the author, most recently, of "Until We Have Won Our Liberty: South Africa after Apartheid."
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Democracy, Domestic Politics, Donald Trump, Presidential Elections, and Kamala Harris
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

2692. Israeli, Palestinian, and American relations: Now and in the future

Author:
Peter Krause
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
The 2024 U.S. election and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict: How the outcome here impacts the situation there
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Donald Trump, Presidential Elections, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, 2023 Gaza War, and Kamala Harris
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

2693. Starr Forum: The Israel-Gaza crisis and US policy

Author:
Dennis Ross and Melani Cammett
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
Starr Forum: The Israel-Gaza crisis and US policy: Tuesday, September 24th, 2024. Introduction: Evan Lieberman, Director, Center for International Studies and Total Professor of Political Science and Contemporary Africa Moderator: Philip Khoury, MIT Vice Provost and Ford International Professor of History Closing remarks: Karl Reid, Vice President for Equity and Inclusion, Institute Community & Equity Office Speakers: Dennis Ross is the counselor and William Davidson Distinguished Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He also teaches at Georgetown University’s Center for Jewish Civilization. For more than twelve years, Ambassador Ross played a leading role in shaping US involvement in the Middle East peace process as the US point man on the peace process in both the George H W Bush and Bill Clinton administrations. He also served as special assistant to President Obama and as National Security Council senior director for the Central Region, and as special advisor on Iran to Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. Melani Cammett is the Clarence Dillon Professor of International Affairs and director of the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard University. She also holds a secondary faculty appointment in the Harvard Chan School of Public Health. Cammett's award-winning books include "Compassionate Communalism: Welfare and Sectarianism in Lebanon" and "A Political Economy of the Middle East." Her current research projects explore "toleration" and reconciliation after ethnoreligious violence, development and identity politics. She has published numerous articles in academic and policy journals, consults for development policy organizations, and serves as a commissioner on the Lancet Commission on Syria.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Humanitarian Crisis, Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Gaza, and United States of America

2694. South African Elections 2024: The Results and Implications for the Region and Beyond

Author:
Pranish Desai, Daniel de Kadt, Rorisang Lekalake, Lwanda Maqwelane, and Evan Lieberman
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
SPEAKERS Pranish Desai is a senior data analyst at Good Governance Africa, a research and advocacy organization headquartered in Johannesburg, South Africa. His work at GGA focuses on the issues of subnational governance in Southern Africa, political accountability, coalition politics in South Africa and encouraging data-driven policymaking within the region. Pranish is an incoming doctoral student at MIT. Daniel de Kadt works as an assistant professor at the London School of Economics, where he is an affiliate of the Data Science Institute and a senior visiting fellow in government. Prior to this he worked at the University of California, Merced, after completing his PhD at MIT. He has written extensively on the electoral politics of South Africa. Rorisang Lekalake is a senior analyst/methodologist for Afrobarometer, charged with contributing to the organization’s analytical outputs, strengthening existing methodologies, and contributing to building the capacity of network staff and partners in quantitative research methods and analysis. She is a 2023 PhD recipient from MIT. Lwanda Maqwelane, a PhD candidate at Rhodes University, is an early career research activist with a focus on policy development, just energy transitions and climate change education. She currently serves as a researcher at the Center for Researching Education and Labour at the University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa. MODERATOR Evan Lieberman is the Total Professor of Political Science and Contemporary Africa and the director of the MIT Center for International Studies. He also directs the Global Diversity Lab (GDL) and MIT’s global experiential learning program, MISTI. His most recent book is Until We Have Won Our Liberty: South Africa after Apartheid (Princeton University Press, 2022).
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

2695. Strengthening Reintegration Support to Boys Formerly Associated with Armed Forces or Armed Groups Who Are Victims/Survivors of Conflict-Related Sexual Violence

Author:
Barbara Buckinx and Charu Lata Hogg
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:
This policy report summarizes insights from a workshop held in Bogotá, Colombia, on December 4, 2023, titled, “Strengthening Reintegration Support to Boys Formerly Associated with Armed Forces or Armed Groups Who Are Victims/Survivors of Conflict-Related Sexual Violence.” The workshop was organized by the Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination (LISD), All Survivors Project (ASP), and the UN Office of the Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Children and Armed Conflict (OSRSG CAAC).
Topic:
Armed Forces, Children, Sexual Violence, Armed Conflict, and Reintegration
Political Geography:
Colombia and Global Focus

2696. Countering Authoritarian Propaganda: Perceived Expertise and Persuasiveness

Author:
Isabelle DeSisto, Laura Howells, Grigore Pop-Eleches, and Jacob Tucker
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:
When do anti-regime messages persuade people living in authoritarian regimes to update their political attitudes? The literature on authoritarian politics has devoted considerable attention to understanding how pro-regime propaganda affects citizens’ attitudes, but far less to the converse: when and how anti-regime messaging is effective at bursting the regime’s information bubble. We argue that source credibility helps explain why some kinds of anti-regime messages influence opinions while others do not. To illustrate this argument, we draw on observational and experimental survey data collected in Russia after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. We pair time-series data with three survey experiments, which together indicate that messages criticizing the regime and its policies are more persuasive when they come from people with subject-matter expertise.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Propaganda, Russia-Ukraine War, and Persuasion
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Eurasia

2697. Prioritizing Palestinian Self-Determination is Long Overdue

Author:
Omar Auf
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:
School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:
The discussion about a one-state or two-state solution must be preceded by efforts to facilitate exercise of the right to self-determination by the Palestinian people. Only then can a realistic solution be genuinely pursued.
Topic:
International Law, Self-Determination, Palestinians, and Two-State Solution
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

2698. Less Than a State

Author:
Sean Lee
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:
School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:
Without a new framework that ensures true sovereignty and security for a future Palestinian state, the two-state solution will remain a farce
Topic:
Security, Sovereignty, State, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, and Two-State Solution
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

2699. Politics of Apathy and All-Out War in the Post-Gaza New World

Author:
Abdalhadi Alijla
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:
School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:
The genocidal campaign against the Gaza Strip threatens widening of the conflict into a regional war, creating new realities that may endure for decades
Topic:
Genocide, Armed Conflict, International Order, Regional Politics, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

2700. Why Hamas Cannot Be Destroyed

Author:
Grace Wermenbol
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:
School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:
Israel’s strategy to eradicate Hamas by killing off its leadership has proven ineffective for decades; the current war demonstrates the myopic nature of this approach
Topic:
Non State Actors, Leadership, Assassination, Hamas, October 7, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza