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2241. Law enforcers or law breakers?

Author:
Matthias Krönke, Thomas Isbell, and Ronald Makanga Kakumba
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
In late 2020, Nigerians gripped the world with massive protests against police brutality and impunity, focusing on the country’s Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS) (Al Jazeera, 2020; George, 2020). Three years after pictures of the #EndSARS demonstrations went viral and the SARS unit was disbanded, at least 15 protesters remain in arbitrary detention, and reports of police abuses continue unabated (Agboga, 2021; Amnesty International, 2021, 2023a; Uwazuruike, 2021). Elsewhere in Africa, and in other parts of the world, the media frequently report on unprofessional behaviour, selective enforcement of the law, unlawful arrests, corruption, use of excessive force, and other human-rights abuses by the police (New York Times, 2022). These violations are not limited to suspected criminals and public protests against the police, as in the case of #EndSARS, but also occur during pivotal moments of democratic accountability (e.g. elections), health emergencies (e.g. COVID-19), and routine citizen police encounters (e.g. traffic stops). For example, recent elections in Zimbabwe (2023), Uganda (2021), and Tanzania (2020) were marred by police repression and brutality targeting opposition politicians and their supporters (Reuters, 2023; Human Rights Watch, 2023a; Kakumba, 2022; Salih & Burke, 2020). During the 2021 election campaign in Uganda, security forces killed at least 54 people (Amnesty International, 2020).
Topic:
Corruption, Public Opinion, Professionalism, Polls, and Police Brutality
Political Geography:
Africa

2242. You’re not like us! Ethnic discrimination and national belonging in Nigeria

Author:
Daniel Tuki
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
This study examines how Nigerians’ experience of ethnic discrimination relates to their sense of national identification vs. ethnic identification. A regression analysis reveals that the experience of discrimination prompts Nigerians to prioritise their ethnic identity over their national identity. The regressions also show that the negative effect of discrimination on an exclusive feeling of national identification is larger than its positive effect on an exclusive feeling of ethnic identification. These findings are robust to different operationalisations of discrimination and to the use of individual level survey data covering 36 African countries. Among the Nigerian population, Igbo ethnicity increased the likelihood of individuals prioritising their ethnic identity over their national identity, while Yoruba and Hausa/Fulani ethnicities had the opposite effect.
Topic:
Ethnicity, Discrimination, and Identity
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

2243. ‘God is my refuge’: Do education and news consumption prompt Africans to put more trust in the COVID-19 vaccine than in prayer?

Author:
Daniel Tuki
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Using Afrobarometer survey data covering 15 African countries, this study examines the impact of educational attainment and news consumption on Africans’ beliefs regarding whether prayer is more effective than a vaccine in preventing COVID-19. Regression results show that education reduces individuals’ likelihood of believing that prayer is more effective than a vaccine in preventing the disease. This might be because education encourages critical thinking, prompting people to believe more in science, which is evidence-based, rather than in prayer, which is based on supernatural beliefs. Likewise, news consumption reduces individuals’ likelihood of believing that prayer is more effective than a vaccine. This might be because most of the news that Africans encountered during the COVID-19 pandemic emphasised the severity of the disease and encouraged vaccination. Regression results also show that, compared to non-religious individuals, Christians and Muslims were more likely to believe that prayer is more effective than a vaccine, while those practicing ethnic/traditional religion were less likely to hold such beliefs.
Topic:
Education, Health, Religion, Survey, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa

2244. Coups and social trust: Evidence from a natural experiment in Burkina Faso

Author:
Thomas Brailey, Robin Harding, and Thomas Isbell
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
How do coups affect social trust? Recent years have seen a dramatic increase in the prevalence of coups, in particular across West Africa. Although significant attention has been paid to the effects of other forms of political violence and instability on social trust, to date very little research has considered how social trust is affected by coups, which represent a distinctive form of intra-elite conflict. Building on insights from work in philosophy and social psychology, we conceptualise trust as an adaptive response to vulnerability. Coups represent moments of violent competition for power between elites that create uncertainty about the state as a provider of security and essential services. Consequently, we argue that social trust will increase in response to coups, as a means of offsetting this uncertainty and insecurity. We exploit a unique natural experiment in Burkina Faso to identify the causal effect of coups on social trust, using data from a survey that was in the field during September 2022, when Burkina Faso experienced its second coup of that year. This provides robust evidence that coups can increase social trust, and further analysis supports the proposed mechanism that increased social trust following the coup was a response to uncertainty and insecurity. For external validity, analysis of cross-national survey data from the Afrobarometer series suggests that the positive relationship between coup exposure and social trust holds more broadly.
Topic:
Democracy, Coup, and Social Trust
Political Geography:
Africa and Burkina Faso

2245. Economic prosperity and public backing for transparent and accountable governance in Africa

Author:
Nnaemeka Ohamadike and Emmanuel Chukwuebuka Orakwe
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Popular demands for social justice in Africa, as in the rest of the world, are often embedded in calls for better governance (Gray & Khan, 2010), which often include transparency and accountability. Przeworski, Stokes, and Manin (1999) define political accountability as the capacity of citizens to exert control over their leaders through institutional sanctions, especially through elections. Lindberg’s (2009) attempt to simplify the concept of political accountability resonates with Ohamadike (2022), who defines political accountability as the link between citizens (the principal) and government or public officials (the agents) tasked with safeguarding the rights and aspirations of the populace. This link forms a social contract upon which the agents (government or public officials) can be held accountable for their actions, with the principal having the privilege to impose sanctions on the agents, which can include removing them from their positions of power. Political transparency and accountability complement one another, but popular support for these ideals varies widely at the country level in Africa. Both ideals can be considered “matching parts” in governance (Hood, 2010). Transparency entails making government information accessible to the public, which gives citizens the knowledge needed to hold officials accountable. Accountability, on the other hand, requires that public officials justify their actions and decisions, which can be done by adhering to the citizens’ demands (Armah-Attoh, Ampratwum, & Paller, 2014). Addressing citizens’ demands is important for government to remain popular and relevant to the people. Although experts have long connected transparency and accountability with strong government performance, citizens vary in how much they prioritise or even support these concepts. One factor that might impact how citizens form these attitudes is economic well being. This question – the impact of economic performance on attitudes about accountability and transparency – is underexplored. We argue that lower levels of economic development are associated with higher citizen support for accountability and transparency. Due to the pervasive poor economic outlook in most African societies, much of the citizenry is gruelingly aware of deep-seated government corruption and poor government responsiveness to citizen needs, which they often feel powerless to tackle (Franz, 2012). Citizens of less-prosperous economies might perceive transparent and accountable governance as a means to address urgent economic issues, allowing them to get more from their government. Conversely, economic prosperity can incentivise individuals to back a government that seems to be achieving results independently, diminishing citizens’ insistence on changes, such as government transparency and accountability. This perspective emerges from trust in the government’s competence, which could cultivate complacency regarding the necessity of transparency and accountability. To test this hypothesis, we conduct a multilevel logistic regression analysis using data from the Afrobarometer Round 8 survey. We find that economic factors significantly influence attitudes. Citizenship in a prosperous African country is associated with lower support for transparent and accountable governance, whereas living in a less affluent country is associated with heightened prioritisation. This paper is structured as follows: Part 2 discusses the research methodology, covering the data, data sources, and analytical techniques. In the results section, findings from a sample of 48,084 Africans are presented. Concluding discussions follow in Part 4.
Topic:
Governance, Economy, Accountability, Transparency, and Public Banking
Political Geography:
Africa

2246. Willingness of Zambians to sacrifice democratic principles during a pandemic: The case of COVID-19

Author:
Isaac Newton Bortey
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
What is the impact of a pandemic on citizens’ willingness to sacrifice democratic principles? Using the novel COVID-19 pandemic as a case, I assess how the effects of COVID-19 influence Zambians’ willingness to sacrifice democratic principles through censorship of the media, postponement of elections, and the use of security forces to enforce public health mandates. I analyse data from the Round 8 Afrobarometer survey in Zambia (collected in 2020 from 1,200 adults), which included questions on COVID-19. Results of a multiple linear regression and a logistic regression suggest that Zambians’ experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic have an influence on their willingness to sacrifice democratic principles. Those who lost a job due to the pandemic are less willing to accept a sacrifice of democratic principles, while positive assessments of the government’s management of the pandemic and perceptions of the pandemic as serious increase people’s willingness to suspend democratic principles. The findings also suggest that Zambians’ trust in the president and their perceptions of the government as legitimate make them more willing to agree to forfeit a democratic principle, at least when the country is faced with a pandemic.
Topic:
Health, Governance, Democracy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

2247. COP29: Reason for Hope Despite the New Climate Financing Deal

Author:
Margareth Sembiring
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Although COP29 did not deliver a satisfactory new climate financing figure, other developments outside of the UNFCCC give reason to hope for a sustained momentum for climate action.
Topic:
United Nations, Climate Finance, and Conference of the Parties (COP)
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2248. China Will Step Up if the US Falls Behind on Climate Action

Author:
Pey Peili and Danielle Lynn Goh
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Even under a second Trump administration, climate targets and negotiations will continue, with China stepping up to lead the global energy transition. Southeast Asia must brace itself for protectionist measures from the United States and China, and increased competition between the two in renewable energy.
Topic:
Climate Change, Renewable Energy, Donald Trump, Protectionism, Competition, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
China and Asia

2249. Food Security Beyond Borders: Securing ASEAN’s Food Supply Chains

Author:
Jose M. L. Montesclaros and Paul Teng
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Regional trade and economic integration will be increasingly important in future ASEAN food security discussions post-2025. A shift is needed going beyond the traditional focus on country-level food security towards a truly integrated regional approach based on interlinked food supply chain security.
Topic:
Food Security, Borders, ASEAN, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

2250. Health Security of Low-Wage Migrant Workers Post-COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:
Danielle Lynn Goh
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic underscored the importance of addressing the welfare of low-wage migrant workers. This includes improving their working and living conditions, better access to healthcare, and more social interactions with local communities.
Topic:
Security, Health, COVID-19, and Migrant Workers
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2251. Cyberbiosecurity: Adapting to Emerging Threats in the Biosecurity Landscape

Author:
Jeselyn and Julius Caesar Trajano
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Cyberbiosecurity is a growing area of concern. However, it remains poorly addressed and underappreciated, especially in Southeast Asia. A comprehensive approach incorporating cyber and biosecurity strategies such as raising awareness, capacity-building and engaging the biotechnology sector is needed.
Topic:
Biosecurity, Cybersecurity, Threat Assessment, and Cyberbiosecurity
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

2252. The Post-2025 ASEAN Agrifood Landscape: What Next?

Author:
Paul Teng
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The ASEAN agrifood landscape – food produced from agriculture – has changed much since two key guiding documents were conceived – The ASEAN Vision and Strategic Plan of Action for Food, Agriculture and Forestry, 2016-2025, and the ASEAN Economic Community Blueprint, 2025. New players and new influencing factors are now at the forefront, and more than ever, ASEAN has to balance economic growth-related food security and safeguarding the environment while considering sustainable food systems that provide livelihoods for smallholder farmers and affordable, safe food for consumers.
Topic:
Agriculture, Food, Food Security, Economic Growth, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
Asia

2253. Economic Impacts of Climatic Change on African Women

Author:
Hélène Maisonnave and Martin Henseler
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Lower access to money and assets makes women less resilient against climate change impacts, like extreme weather events (floods, drought) and scarcity of resources such as water and food. In agriculturally based economies in Africa, most women work in the climate-sensitive agricultural sectors. Moreover, women face time poverty because they are the main ones responsible for domestic work, for example, childcare, collecting water and fuel, and food preparation. At the same time, women are extremely important for the current and future economic growth in developing economies. In Africa, all these women-specific challenges apply on a continent highly exposed to the impacts of climate change but are regionally heterogeneous. Understanding the region-specific impact of climate change on women is the key to designing effective and efficient policies to counteract the negative impacts on women.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Economics, Natural Disasters, and Women
Political Geography:
Africa

2254. ASEAN One Health Efforts: Tackling the Intersections of Climate Change and Health

Author:
Danielle Lynn Goh
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Climate change and global warming are adversely impacting the environment, and, in turn, human health. Southeast Asia is especially vulnerable. ASEAN policymakers must prioritise regional cooperation to address these challenges. ASEAN’s One Health approach is a good starting point.
Topic:
Climate Change, Health, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
Asia

2255. Engaging WPS in Climate Security – ASEAN Perspectives

Author:
Tamara Nair
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Climate change processes are acknowledged as critical components of regional and international security, and there is scope for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (henceforth, ASEAN) to mobilise all segments of its population and existing plans of action addressing climate change to confront this challenge. The role of women in ASEAN’s peace and security and their role climate change mitigation can and should be acknowledged and strengthened systematically. The ASEAN Women, Peace and Security Regional Plan of Action (WPS RPA) offers such an opportunity for increased regional cooperation to build resilience and enhance resourcefulness of women’s formal, but in particular, informal networks. Although climate change does feature in the RPA, it is not within the specific focus of how the WPS framework might work in addressing the need for gender sensitive responses to the effect of climate change. This Insight discusses possible advantages of using the RPA in this manner.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Resilience, ASEAN, Women, Peace, and and Security (WPS)
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

2256. Gaza Needs Humanitarian Assistance Now as Famine Sets In

Author:
Alistair D. B. Cook
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Dealing with the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza and preventing famine requires increasing airdrops as an interim solution and reinforcing diplomatic efforts to open up more aid channels.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Famine, Humanitarian Crisis, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

2257. Agriculture and Food at COP28: Not Just More Money

Author:
Jose M. L. Montesclaros and Paul Teng
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The recent COP28 Climate Summit has finally given due recognition to food and agriculture given the close links between climate change and food production. While the summit saw a big push to operationalise the newly established Loss and Damage Fund, limited attention was given to agriculture in discussions on the said fund. Rather than focusing on drawing from the new fund to promote sustainable and climate-resilient agricultural practices, greater attention is needed instead to mobilising existing funds.
Topic:
Agriculture, Food, Climate Finance, and Conference of the Parties (COP)
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2258. Argentina's President Milei Aims for Economy "Shock Therapy"

Author:
Bartłomiej Znojek
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Dealing with the deepening economic crisis is the top priority for the government of ultraliberal President Javier Milei, who took over in Argentina on 10 December 2023. The scale of the challenge and the lack of a parliamentary majority will complicate the implementation of his plans, which include the dollarisation of the economy and the elimination of the central bank. In foreign policy, Milei promises to prioritise relations with the U.S. and Israel, among other goals. Although he cancelled the previous government’s decision to join BRICS, it is doubtful whether he will limit relations with key partners such as China.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economy, BRICS, Economic Crisis, and Javier Milei
Political Geography:
Argentina

2259. Defence of Baltic States, Poland Runs into Ottawa Treaty on Mines

Author:
Anna Maria Dyner and Stefania Kolarz
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
By deciding to build a defence line on the border with Russia and declaring the possibility of using anti-personnel mines, representatives of the Estonian parliament have opened the debate on possible withdrawal from the 1997 Ottawa Treaty on anti-personnel mines. This step may be necessary for the Baltic States to protect their territories from aggression, as they are faced with a lack of operational depth. However, for other states, including Poland, which have other power-projection capabilities, it is a last resort.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Landmines, and Ottawa Treaty
Political Geography:
Russia, Poland, Estonia, and Baltic States

2260. Alternatives to the U.S. Dollar as a Global Currency Face Brick Walls

Author:
Piotr Dzierżanowski
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
In the wake of a series of economic and political crises, including developing countries’ external debt crisis and Russian aggression against Ukraine and related sanctions, there has been speculation about the possible replacement of the U.S. dollar (USD) in the global economy. This could take place through the emergence of a new global currency or a shift to settlements in the currencies of the transacting parties. Either of these solutions involves political and economic difficulties and is not currently realistic. It is advisable that Poland, in its foreign policy, assumes the continuation of the dominance of USD in the global economy.
Topic:
Debt, Economy, Currency, and Dollar
Political Geography:
Poland and Global Focus