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2202. Crafting a Robust U.S. Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism
- Author:
- Sanam Rasool, William Alan Reinsch, and Thibault Denamiel
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- The introduction of a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) in the United States presents an intricate policy challenge at the intersection of climate action and international trade. With countries around the world integrating climate considerations into their trade policies, the United States is under growing pressure to develop and implement its own CBAM. This policy tool, already adopted by the European Union, is geared toward leveling the playing field for domestic industries while promoting global climate action and accountability. A future U.S. CBAM could serve as a vital instrument in the nation’s transition toward a net-zero economy, encouraging domestic carbon footprint reduction and driving trading partners to adopt cleaner practices. However, crafting and rolling out such a mechanism comes with knotty challenges, ranging from choosing optimal carbon accounting methods and pricing to warding off potential trade disputes and garnering global collaboration. As the United States charts its course through this complex policy landscape, it has the opportunity to shape global climate action while safeguarding its economic interests.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, International Trade and Finance, Economy, and Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)
- Political Geography:
- North America, Global Focus, and United States of America
2203. Defense Priorities in the Open-Source AI Debate
- Author:
- Masao Dahlgren
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- A spirited debate is taking place over the regulation of open foundation models—artificial intelligence models whose underlying architectures and parameters are made public and can be inspected, modified, and run by end users. Proposed limits on releasing open foundation models may have significant defense industrial impacts. If model training is a form of defense production, these impacts deserve further scrutiny. Preliminary evidence suggests that an open foundation model ecosystem could benefit the U.S. Department of Defense’s supplier diversity, sustainment, cybersecurity, and innovation priorities. Follow-on analyses should quantify impacts on acquisition cost and supply chain security.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Regulation, and Artificial Intelligence
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
2204. Driving Change: How EVs Are Reshaping China’s Economic Relationship with Latin America
- Author:
- Ilaria Mazzocco, Ryan C. Berg, and Rubi Bledsoe
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- Countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are navigating a new geopolitical moment. Some LAC countries are benefitting from increased access to low-cost, high-quality electric vehicles (EVs) and new investment throughout the value chain from China that can help meet governments’ climate and economic objectives. However, this comes with risks, as dependencies on Beijing may be exacerbated at a time when China’s economy is underperforming and geopolitical competition with the United States is on the rise. Washington should find new ways to engage with the region to find solutions that address local demands and simultaneously mitigate U.S. geopolitical risk.
- Topic:
- Global Markets, Economy, Innovation, and Electric Vehicles
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Latin America
2205. The Gender-Based Violence Crisis in Haiti
- Author:
- Christopher Hernandez-Roy and Juliana Rubio
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- Gender-based violence (GBV) in Haiti is a widespread and escalating problem, exacerbated by the country’s deep-rooted gender inequalities, systemic impunity, and political instability. As the political and security crisis in Haiti has deepened in recent years, the use of GBV, particularly sexual violence, has increased as a systematic tool of intimidation and punishment, and ultimately of control. Local civil society organizations are continuing their efforts to support survivors of GBV, but they require additional external assistance. With the formation of a new interim government and the arrival of the Kenyan-led, UN-backed Multinational Security Support (MSS) Mission earlier in 2024, it becomes imperative to understand GBV’s deeply entrenched roots and recent expansion and escalation in order to begin to effectively address this crisis.
- Topic:
- Inequality, Gender Based Violence, and Sexual Violence
- Political Geography:
- Caribbean and Haiti
2206. Energy Security and the U.S.-Philippine Alliance
- Author:
- Harrison Prétat, Yasir Atalan, Gregory B. Poling, and Benjamin Jensen
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- The Philippines’ fragile energy outlook threatens to undermine efforts to secure its strategic autonomy vis-à-vis an assertive China. A tabletop exercise held at CSIS this spring with U.S. and Philippine participants explored the strategic implications of different energy investments and their vulnerability to disruption. Bringing online renewable and clean energy sources is an imperative to providing for Philippine energy security in the long term, but fossil fuels will have a critical stabilizing role in the near term. The United States can support its ally through enhanced alliance programing, technical assistance, and new approaches to interagency cooperation.
- Topic:
- Security, Sustainability, Green Transition, and Energy Security
- Political Geography:
- Philippines, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America
2207. U.S. Investment in the Philippines: More Than Meets the Eye
- Author:
- Japhet Quitzon and Gregory B. Poling
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- The size and scope of U.S.-Philippine economic cooperation is well documented; however, the quantitative and qualitative impacts on the Philippines are poorly understood. Without comprehensive, accurate, and easily accessible data on U.S. investments and their effects in the Philippines, malign actors may promote false or harmful narratives, thereby weakening public support for the U.S.-Philippine alliance. It is crucial for the United States to improve public awareness and understanding of its economic and investment activities in the Philippines.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Investment, and Economic Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Philippines, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America
2208. Refocusing U.S. Public Diplomacy for a Multipolar World
- Author:
- Daniel F. Runde and Philip Arceneaux
- Publication Date:
- 11-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- China and Russia leverage technology, social media, and big data as tools to deceptively present information for hostile purposes. The United States must embrace a bold approach to public diplomacy to protect the ideas, values, electoral processes, and all the elements that make a free and open society possible and prevent it from becoming a casualty in the information war.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Data, Multipolarity, Public Diplomacy, and Information Warfare
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, and Asia
2209. Soviet Lessons for China Watching
- Author:
- Ford Hart
- Publication Date:
- 11-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- Edited by Jude Blanchette of CSIS and Hal Brands of SAIS, the Marshall Papers is a series of essays that probes and challenges the assessments underpinning the U.S. approach to great power rivalry. The papers will be rigorous yet provocative, continually pushing the boundaries of intellectual and policy debates. In this Marshall Paper, Ford Hart argues that Chinese Communist Party (CCP) political institutions, the CCP’s practical behavior, and continued veneration of Marxism-Leninism in the CCP constitution highlight the Soviet model’s deep influence on Beijing. As such, lessons from the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) can help us understand the CCP’s approach to governance today.
- Topic:
- International Security, Geopolitics, Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and Soviet Union
- Political Geography:
- China and United States of America
2210. China’s Intelligence Footprint in Cuba: New Evidence and Implications for U.S. Security
- Author:
- Matthew Funaiole, Aidan Powers-Riggs, Brian Hart, Henry Ziemer, Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., Ryan C. Berg, and Christopher Hernandez-Roy
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- China has long been rumored to operate spy facilities in Cuba, but few details about its footprint there have been made public. Research by CSIS reveals four sites within Cuba that are most likely to be supporting China’s efforts to collect intelligence on the United States and its neighbors. Satellite imagery and open-source analysis offer an unprecedented look into these facilities and provide clues as to how they could be used to spy on sensitive communications and activities in the region. These sites have undergone observable upgrades in recent years, even as Cuba has faced increasingly dire economic prospects that have drawn it closer to China. In light of these developments, the United States and its regional partners should carefully monitor China’s growing role in Cuba, harden sensitive communications, and push for transparency to reduce the likelihood of miscalculation.
- Topic:
- Security, Intelligence, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Cuba
2211. Addressing Arctic Vulnerabilities: Lessons from Ukraine
- Author:
- Jonas Vidhammer Berge
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- The Arctic is quickly becoming a theater of global competition—a development that has accelerated since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. In order to protect critical undersea communications infrastructure, decrease intra-alliance dependency on U.S. space-based capabilities, and deter Russian gray-zone tactics, NATO-aligned Arctic states—the United States, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden—must enhance situational awareness of these vulnerabilities. By applying lessons learned from the war in Ukraine on how technological advancements can shape military strategy and the operational environment, specifically with regards to resilient space capabilities, cost-efficient unmanned systems, and rapid procurement processes for evolving technological capabilities, Arctic states can improve both deterrence and potential warfighting in the region.
- Topic:
- International Security, Geopolitics, Strategic Competition, Vulnerability, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Arctic
2212. Bretton Woods Institutions: 80 Years and Counting
- Author:
- Roman Marshavin
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
- Institution:
- East View Information Services
- Abstract:
- ON JULY 22, 2024, the world marked the 80th anniversary of the conclusion of the Bretton Woods Conference, which led to the establishment of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. This milestone provides an opportune moment to assess the progress achieved and reflect on future challenges. In 1944, when these institutions were created, the world was vastly different. World War II was still ongoing, but the defeat of Nazism was within reach. Beginning in 1943, consultations were held in Moscow and Washington among the Allies of the anti-Hitler coalition – primarily the US, the UK, and the USSR – regarding the future world order, including its economic dimensions. The Soviet delegation, led by Deputy People’s Commissar for Foreign Trade Mikhail Stepanov, played an active role in these discussions, including the establishment of the UN and financial institutions. It is fair to say that without the USSR’s participation, the creation of the first-ever truly global financial institutions would have been impossible. Archival materials confirm the high level of preparation by Soviet experts and their diplomatic skills, which enabled them to defend several key positions for the country and reflect them in the final documents.
- Topic:
- World Bank, Institutions, IMF, BRICS, and Bretton Woods
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Soviet Union, United States of America, and Global South
2213. Economic Diplomacy in the Modern Geopolitical Context
- Author:
- Dmitry Birichevsky
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
- Institution:
- East View Information Services
- Abstract:
- ON SEPTEMBER 7, 1944, an economic department was formed at the People’s Commissariat for Foreign Affairs of the USSR, marking the beginning of modern Russian economic diplomacy. Over the course of its existence, the current Department of Economic Cooperation (DEC) of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has undergone numerous transformations, gradually expanding its functions as the foreign economic agenda has expanded and become more complex. The DEC is celebrating its 80th anniversary amid radical geopolitical changes that will shape the configuration of the future world order. This is a period of significant challenges and great responsibility, as well as remarkable opportunities. The current historical phase is marked by significant turbulence in the international relations system, as the collective West’s claims to civilizational exceptionalism have proven untenable and Western regulatory mechanisms have failed to ensure sustainable development of the global economy. The Western powers are attempting to maintain their dominance by systematically weakening potential rivals and securing a generally subordinate position for countries of the World Majority.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Geopolitics, Integration, Economic Diplomacy, Multipolarity, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Global Focus
2214. Proposal for a Regional Emergency Action Partnership (REAP) for Peace in the South Caucasus
- Author:
- Anar Ahmadov, Rusif Huseynov, Tatul Manaseryan, Arman Martirosyan, and Niko Orell
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Armenia and Azerbaijan, together with Georgia, are facing unprecedented challenges that arise from unfolding climate change and seismic risk in the South Caucasus. Placing considerable strain on economies, livelihoods, and government resources, these hazards can significantly worsen the complex geopolitical landscape and exacerbate unresolved political issues. The absence of structured and coordinated disaster response mechanisms can increase vulnerability and hamper effective crisis management, leading to avoidable loss of life, widespread suffering, and significant economic damage. We propose the establishment of a Regional Emergency Action Partnership (REAP) in the form of a coordinated binational disaster response system. This system could enable better preparation and facilitate effective responses to disasters that are likely to have an impact across borders, ultimately saving lives through joint efforts and resource mobilisation. Including Georgia would further strengthen such a crisis management system and solidify regional cooperation. Furthermore, this mechanism could help catalyse political rapprochement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Natural disasters and humanitarian crises can bring adversarial states together and unexpectedly foster collaboration. Greece and Türkiye have engaged in “earthquake diplomacy”, and despite the lack of diplomatic relations, Armenia and Türkiye briefly reopened their border to facilitate aid during the devastating 2023 Turkish earthquake (see Case Study 1 for more information). This rare example of earthquake diplomacy demonstrates how countries in seismically active regions can share common threats and opportunities for cooperation in their disaster responses. Similarly, Israel, Jordan, and Palestine have conducted joint disaster-response exercises involving 400 firefighters, medical personnel, and first responders, and the United States and Western states extended considerable support to the Soviet Union in the aftermath of the 1988 Armenian earthquake.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Natural Disasters, Partnerships, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Eurasia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and South Caucasus
2215. Enhancing Prospects for Peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan through Joint Climate Change and Energy Security Action
- Author:
- Anar Ahmadov, Agha Bayramov, Tatul Manaseryan, and Arman Martirosyan
- Publication Date:
- 11-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- This Policy Brief outlines practical ways in which environmental and energy cooperation between Armenia and Azerbaijan could foster regional stability and peace amid the looming impacts of climate change. Collaboration on shared resources could mitigate the negative impacts of cross-border environmental challenges while fostering mutual trust, thereby reducing the risk of future conflicts. Joint efforts to produce and transmit renewable and non-renewable energy resources could further promote regional stability by strengthening energy security and deepening economic interconnectivity. Joint action on climate change is becoming increasingly urgent in the South Caucasus, especially between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Both countries face serious economic, social, and political risks from climate impacts, including rising temperatures, reduced precipitation, desertification, extreme weather, water scarcity, and the spread of diseases. Armenia and Azerbaijan are also likely to face challenges affecting energy dependence and security, although in different ways. These challenges are likely to strain resources, heighten tensions, and increase the potential for conflict within and between these two nations. To mitigate climate change impacts, enhance energy security, and reduce the risk of conflict, cooperation is crucial, particularly as Armenia and Azerbaijan navigate a fragile post-conflict environment. The Policy Brief proposes five actionable policy options to promote environmental and energy cooperation. Their implementation would create platforms for government representatives, experts, and civil society members and organisations to jointly study, deliberate, and negotiate through technical and economic communication channels, fostering mutual understanding, confidence building, and reconciliation through shared problem solving. After discussing these policy options, the Policy Brief concludes by summarising the key take-aways from this important discussion.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Climate Change, Regional Cooperation, and Energy Security
- Political Geography:
- Armenia, Azerbaijan, and South Caucasus
2216. A Contact Group for Ukraine?
- Author:
- Walter Kemp
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- The high-level Ukraine peace summit hosted by Switzerland on 15 and 16 June underlined the need for finding a path to peace. But thus far, proposals made by several countries, including Ukraine, have not stopped the fighting. Since Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has implications for international peace and security, perhaps it is time to consider the formation of an international contact group to formulate a more coherent approach to de-escalating the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and nudge the parties towards peace. Since the late 1990s it has been common to form international contact groups in times of crisis. Such groups can bolster coordination among different international actors, forge common positions and exert leverage on the parties to reduce tensions. Indeed, in the past 20 or so years (since the beginning of the 21st century) there have been more than 20 such groups. Some of the more high-profile examples include contact groups on the Balkans, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Syria, Afghanistan, Libya, the Great Lakes region of Africa, and for dealing with piracy off the coast of Somalia. These ad hoc coalitions with nonbinding rules are designed to enhance cohesion, cooperation and coordination to improve conflict or crisis management. Considering the seriousness of the war in Ukraine and the fact that many countries have a stake in reducing tensions, it would seem necessary and urgent to form an international contact group on Ukraine.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Crisis Management, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Ukraine
2217. The Biological Weapons Convention: Challenges and Opportunities
- Author:
- Jaroslav Krasny
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Amid geopolitical challenges that have led to the weakening of international arms control and disarmament efforts, the Ninth Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) Review Conference (RevCon) provided a “glimmer of hope” for control and disarmament regimes. Delegates at the Non-Proliferation Treaty RevCon in 2022 and the Chemical Weapons Convention RevCon in 2023 were unable to reach a consensus on these conferences’ respective final documents. By contrast, the Ninth BWC RevCon held from 28 November to 16 December 2022 successfully adopted the final document. While conflicting positions on how to reflect recent allegations that some states are undertaking biological-weaponsrelated research prevented agreement on the article-by-article review, the final document included a forward-looking section that established a Working Group on the Strengthening of the BWC. This Working Group is designed to “strengthen the effectiveness and to improve the implementation of the Convention” and generate recommendations for enhancing and institutionalising it across a number of important areas, including confidence-building measures (CBMs), transparency, compliance and verification, and the national implementation of the BWC. The Working Group's sessions, therefore, provide a long-awaited opportunity to address several critical issues related to the Convention, including international cooperation and a verification mechanism. The Working Group also presents a valuable opportunity to advance work on national implementation under Article IV and interlink obligations. The recent convening of the Working Group from 4 to 8 December 2023 and the subsequent meeting of states parties from 11 to 13 December offer pertinent insights into progress made in strengthening the BWC. Ahead of the next session of the Working Group scheduled for August 2024, this Policy Brief seeks to outline some of the security challenges presented by biological weapons and lay out some of the policy implications and recommendations that flow from these challenges.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, International Cooperation, Geopolitics, and Biological Weapons
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
2218. Strengthening a Rights-Based Approach to United Nations Peace Operations
- Author:
- Charles T. Hunt and Adam Day
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- During a July 2020 open debate the United Nations (UN) Security Council highlighted the crucial roles human rights play in peace operations, including by providing early warning of issues or problems, supporting good offices, improving the protection of civilians, strengthening national rule-of-law capacities, ensuring due diligence/compliance for military operations, leading a range of protection-related activities and supporting efforts to protect political space in fragile settings. Despite this recognition of the important role of human rights, there has been relatively little research into how human rights support the implementation of the mandates of a range of peace operations, leaving the evidence base for understanding the contribution of human rights to peace operations very thin. The purpose of this policy brief is to chart out key complexities linked to operationalising a rights-based approach to peace operations. It identifies and introduces critical challenges to mandate implementation through specific themes, including the contribution of human rights to the protection of civilians, stabilisation mandates, smaller-footprint field offices, the political work of special envoys and mission transitions. The paper examines both theoretical and operational aspects of human rights in peace operations. In line with the High-Level Independent Panel on Peace Operations report (2015), it discusses human rights considerations in relation to a range of UN peace operations, including peacekeeping and special political missions, regional prevention offices, and special envoys. The first section locates human rights components and concerns across a spectrum of UN peace operations, comparing how human rights contribute to a wide range of peace and security engagements. The second section highlights several challenges to realising human rights aims and objectives in field missions. The final section proposes a series of questions that warrant further discussion to elucidate and support a rights-based approach to peace operations that could help to respond to the call in the New Agenda for Peace for a reflection on the limits and future of UN peacekeeping and other ongoing policymaking within the UN system. The paper illustrates that in order to support the UN’s recommitment to its core principles and human rights pillar, there is a need for greater attention to the ways that human rights can support the analysis and strategic positioning of UN peace operations.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Peacekeeping, and UN Security Council
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
2219. Perspectives for the War in Ukraine
- Author:
- Thomas Greminger
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- There is no doubt that the military aggression against Ukraine unleashed by President Putin on 24 February 2022 represents the most significant disruption of security and peace in Europe since the end of World War II. The war has far-reaching repercussions affecting practically every aspect of our lives and impacting far beyond the European continent. In this article, I will first briefly assess the situation on the battlefield. I will then offer a few scenarios for how the conflict could evolve in the coming months. Afterward I will mainly focus on what has been called “Plan B”-thinking in the expert community: What if the official narrative of both sides – a military victory – does not materialize? What if the parties, exhausted by a war of attrition, decide to return to the negotiation table – or the high-intensity warfare transitions to low-intensity conflict leading to a de facto cessation of hostilities? What could a negotiated or a de facto ceasefire look like? And what issues would have to be negotiated if – in the most optimistic scenario – the parties decide to proceed from a ceasefire to a conflict settlement process?
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
2220. Geopolitical Features, Common Interests and the Climate Crisis: The Case of the Arctic
- Author:
- Lassi Heininen
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- In the 1990s an inspiring sense of a “new North” became apparent in Arcticrelated ideas and innovations that indicated the end of the Cold War period. This included arms control initiatives, cross-border cooperation and sustainability “to decrease military tension and increase political stability”, an emerging environmental awakening among peoples and societies, knowledge-building by indigenous peoples and the scientific community, and new forums for opening up discussions on regional development. The Arctic seemed to be in a state of constant transformation (geo)politically, economically, culturally and environmentally. Some of the outcomes of these processes were impressive, transforming the Arctic from a site of military tension to one reflecting geopolitical stability. When analysing this transformation and the ways in which the Arctic states reconstructed their geopolitical reality prior to 24 February 2022, the main conclusion is that this would not have been possible without key features of Arctic geopolitics, security and governance creating suitable conditions for cross-border cooperation, which correspondingly increased stability. In the same way, cooperation, mostly in terms of fields of low political interest, was made possible because the eight Arctic states shared similar interests. But now this transformation, which is also called the “Arctic model”, is threatened by a new transformation from a state of high geopolitical stability to one characterised by the uncertainties of the climate crisis and new East-West tensions, resulting in a pause in pan-Arctic cooperation during which the Arctic Council has not been able to return to business as usual. The focus of this Geneva Paper, based on the author’s previous studies and personal observations after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, is this new transformation and its influences on cooperation. The aim is to assess whether the fundamentals of the previously applicable common interests are still valued, and to what extent they could be used as the means for confidence-building in the region. Similarly, if the fundamentals of the special features of Arctic geopolitics, security and governance are in place, the question then becomes to what extent they could be interpreted as prerequisites for more widespread cooperation and geopolitical stability. Finally, if the search for stability that was the original ultimate aim of the Arctic states and Arctic indigenous peoples were still valued, would it motivate the Arctic states’ governments to more effectively align their policies when facing the climate crisis. This could be done by integrating cooperation on environmental protection, climate change mitigation, and science into their climate and foreign policies. Much is clearly at stake, for if we lose the region’s human-made peace dividend that was consciously built during the 35 years before February 2022, then the multiple crises and world disorder that are looming and threatening the entire world community would be much more difficult to resolve.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, International Cooperation, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Arctic and Global Focus