Search

Begin New Search Publication Year within 3 Years Publication Year within 1 Year

2081. The Revolution in Bangladesh Raises the Prospect of Renewed Democracy

Author:
Patryk Kugiel
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
On 5 August, a social revolution forced Bangladesh’s long-serving Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to step down and leave the country. The massive anti-government protests were caused by a combination of the authoritarian rule and increasingly difficult post-pandemic economic situation. A transitional government led by Nobel laureate Mohammad Yunus will be tasked with stabilising the country and preparing for free and fair parliamentary elections. It is in the West’s interest to strengthen democracy in Bangladesh. Poland can use this moment of democratic transition to intensify bilateral cooperation.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Protests, Revolution, and Sheikh Hasina
Political Geography:
Bangladesh, South Asia, and Poland

2082. Growth, Decarbonisation, Security: a Recipe for Strengthening the EU's Economic Condition

Author:
Melchior Szczepanik and Jolanta Szymańska
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Mario Draghi and Enrico Letta, in their reports on the economic condition of the EU, urge the organisation to double down on its objectives formulated in recent years: stimulating growth in a manner consistent with climate policy and reducing dangerous economic dependencies. The most controversial issue is how the recommended measures will be financed. Their implementation also will require striking a balance between several priorities—not entirely compatible—both within EU economic policy and in relations with main economic partners.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, European Union, Economy, Economic Growth, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:
Europe

2083. Russia Changes Its Nuclear Doctrine

Author:
Artur Kacprzyk
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The publication of Russia’s new nuclear doctrine is another in its attempts to intimidate NATO states, especially in order to discourage them from supporting Ukraine. Russia is lowering the declared threshold for the use of nuclear weapons and specifying additional situations in which it is to be possible. This does not mean, however, an increased danger of nuclear weapons use in the ongoing conflict. Russia is nonetheless likely to take further steps to heighten the fears of such a scenario among NATO governments and societies. At the same time, the document reflects the weakening of Russia’s conventional forces.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Nuclear Weapons, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

2084. Landscape of Change: Syria and the Middle East after the Assad Regime's Fall

Author:
Sara Nowacka, Aleksandra Maria Spancerska, and Michał Wojnarowicz
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
A successful offensive by Syrian rebels in December this year led to the fall of one of the most brutal modern regimes. Most Syrians have welcomed the end of Bashar al-Assad’s rule, although divisions within the opposition forces pose a risk to Syria’s potential stability after 13 years of civil war. To reduce them, international assistance is needed to rebuild Syrian institutions and to help hold accountable those regime members responsible for war crimes and crimes against humanity.
Topic:
Regime Change, Political stability, Syrian War, Accountability, Institutions, Bashar al-Assad, Post-Conflict, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

2085. The role of local communities in European policies. Thirty years of cohesion funds.

Author:
Fairouz Hondema-Mokrane
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The tragedies caused by the adverse weather conditions in Valencia (Spain) and cyclone Chido in Mayotte have suddenly brought the responsibilities of local authorities, Member States and the European Union, and the need for solidarity between territories, to the fore. While the news usually focuses on the - sometimes tense - relations between ‘Brussels’ and national capitals, the day-to-day work of local authorities is closely linked to the European venture, even if it does not receive the same attention. This point was developed at the 20th Congress of Regions of France in Strasbourg in September 2024, it is also the focus of the work of the European Committee of the Regions. This commitment comes as no surprise, given that the regions are a key territorial level in the implementation of European policies. Amendments to EAFRD and ERDF/ESF texts to take account of the effects of natural disasters[1], were approved by MEPs on 17 December and by the Council on 18 December. Throughout Europe, the local level ensures the implementation of European texts, facilitates the use of cohesion funds and encourages citizens' commitment to Europe. The Member States retain sovereignty over their territorial organisation, but these levels all play a key role in consolidating European policies.
Topic:
European Union, Regional Politics, and Cohesion
Political Geography:
Europe

2086. The path to "controlled" immigration

Author:
Joël Dine
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Europe needs to change its immigration policy completely. It must move from being a ‘fortress Europe’ to a Europe that organises its immigration, so that it is conducive to its economic development. It must do so in order to rediscover the human values that have underpinned its construction for nearly seventy-five years. The sight of thousands of people drowning in the Mediterranean Sea, the English Channel and the Atlantic Ocean, or abandoned in the desert or in the cities, hunted down by the police and at the mercy of traffickers and smugglers of all descriptions, is a daily affront to our consciences. In the midst of this hell in which tens of thousands of young Africans find themselves, there may be a solution. It involves organising ‘controlled immigration’ in the countries from which this immigration originates. This would mean a complete change in the European policies pursued to date. But migration is a practically insurmountable force, built into human nature. History is ample proof of that! Opposition to the free movement of people - and to the way it is currently practised - is doomed to failure. If it is possible to change the situation, then let us do it.
Topic:
Economic Development, Human Trafficking, and Immigration Policy
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Middle East

2087. Digital legislation: convergence or divergence of models? A comparative look at the European Union, China and the United States

Author:
Aifang Ma
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
In 1964, when the Canadian pioneer of media studies, Marshall McLuhan, argued that media is an extension of man, he did not foresee that future media, at the beginning of the 21st century, would produce increasingly pernicious effects[1]. While media have indeed extended human capacities, they have also shown to be generators of complicated social and ethical problems. In the same year philosopher, Herbert Marcuse, who analysed relations between Man and Machine from a deeply pessimistic viewpoint. His predictions seem to be corroborated by what we are now experiencing: the easy life made possible by technological progress has progressively gnawed into the individual critical reasoning. Instead of imposing their control over technologies, human beings are increasingly at their mercy. The domination of technology over individuals is all the stronger, since it seems harmless and is pleasant to use. In this context, the regulation of digital technologies[2] is flourishing in autocracies and democracies alike. Its importance goes far beyond the need of authoritarian regimes to cut off the transmission of destabilising content. It is universal since digital technologies set common challenges to national governments: illegal collection of users’ personal data, precarious working conditions for gig workers, monopolistic practices of large platforms, threats to human dignity and domestic security. These problems are causing trouble to all governments around the world. This article aims to be pragmatic. Beyond differences in political regime, it studies the regulatory approaches of the three largest digital economies in the world: China, the United States, and the European Union. The three models can potentially hinder or stimulate the development of digital technologies without necessarily opposing each other.
Topic:
European Union, Media, Legislation, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2088. Ukraine's accession negotiations with the European Union: reforms undertaken in ten years and the challenges ahead

Author:
Snizhana Diachenko, Viktoria Melnyk, and Dmytro Naumenko
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
10 years ago, European Union representatives were still far from enthusiastic about Ukraine. Indeed, the Association Agreement signed by President Poroshenko in 2014 which came into force three years later[1], although far-reaching, lacked a clear political objective[2]. Russia's massive invasion of Ukraine has considerably accelerated the relaunch of the enlargement policy. Indeed, after Ukraine applied for membership on the fourth day after the Russian invasion, the Union took a positive decision with extraordinary speed and granted Ukraine candidate status in June 2022. On 14 February 2023, the European Council gave the green light to the opening of accession negotiations with Ukraine which started on 25 June 2024. The situation was unprecedented, and the EU seems to have accepted the geopolitical challenges and responded quickly. For Ukraine, approaching the gates of the European Union is a concrete expression of the will of the people who defended the European path during the Revolution of Dignity – otherwise known as EuroMaïdan, in 2014, and which is defending European values on the front line. European integration is proving to be a matter of national security for Ukraine, since from 2019, "the European identity of the Ukrainian people and the irreversibility of Ukraine's European and Euro-Atlantic path" are enshrined in the Constitution of Ukraine, following amendments made on the basis of the "strategic path of the State to acquire full membership of the European Union and NATO". Prior to this, Ukraine's National Security Law of June 2018 had already defined ‘Ukraine's integration into the European political, economic, security and legal space and membership of the European Union’ as one of the State's fundamental national interests. And so, Ukraine has already started working towards its rapprochement with the EU with the implementation of this text. Given its scale and ambition, the lessons learned from Ukraine's implementation of the association agreement can help to effectively organise the accession negotiation process.
Topic:
NATO, Reform, European Union, Russia-Ukraine War, and Enlargement
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

2089. General elections 26 October in Georgia: a referendum on Europe?

Author:
Elise Bernard and Vincent Godbillon
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The general elections in Georgia on 26 October will clearly determine the autocratic or democratic future of the country. President Salome Zourabichvili[1] considers these elections to be a referendum for a “European, democratic, independent Georgia, or a Georgia led by an authoritarian, isolated Russia”. Meanwhile, Georgian Dream, which holds a small majority in the Assembly and presents itself as ‘social-democratic’, is increasingly seen as Russia's Trojan horse[2]. Led by Bidzina Ivanishvili[3], it appears to be implementing a strategy of systematically blocking Georgia's accession to the European Union, despite its supposedly favourable label. The prospect of these elections appears to have accelerated this methodical undermining, especially since Georgia was granted candidate country status by the European Council in December 2023. On 9 October, at the start of the new legislature, the European Parliament adopted, a resolution by 495 votes, calling on the European Union and its Member States to hold to account and impose personal sanctions on all those responsible for undermining democracy in Georgia[4], including Bidzina Ivanishvili. The European Union has already frozen 30 million € of the European Peace Facility.
Topic:
Elections, European Union, Referendum, and Foreign Influence
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Georgia

2090. The European Union between the United States and China: should we choose between equidistance and following?

Author:
Philippe Etienne
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The competition between the world's two major powers structures all international relations and influences the choices made by all other countries. The latter fear the consequences of tensions between the two giants and, in the main, want to avoid having to choose. But the problem is not the same everywhere. To put it simply, China benefits in the "global South" from a certain hostility towards the West, while the United States can play on the fear aroused by the emergence of Chinese power, which no longer hesitates to resort to power relations, especially in Eastern Asia[1]. Against this backdrop, Europe is in a delicate situation. It must contend with its assimilation to the United States as being part of the “West” which is increasingly rejected. Although it shares much with its American ally, particularly the values of democracy and security arrangements, it does not always have the same interests as the United States and must preserve its room for manoeuvre if it is not to be dragged into decisions in which it has no part. Before examining how the European Union is facing up to this challenge, and how it should behave in the future, the driving forces and prospects of the Sino-American rivalry require exploration.
Topic:
International Relations, Globalization, European Union, Global South, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2091. Europe's defence against Russia

Author:
Elina Valtonen
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The large-scale offensive launched by Russia against Ukraine on 24 February 2022 marked a real turning point in the history of Europe. It radically altered the European security order, and there will probably be no turning back. The cooperative, treaty-based security order has been transformed into a system based on a balance of power, deterrence and containment[1]. By waging a brutal and illegal war against Ukraine, Russia's objectives have not changed. Its actions demonstrate total disdain for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of an independent neighbouring state. This Russian aggression, in flagrant violation of international law and the United Nations Charter, demonstrates Russia's determination to undermine the foundations of the European security order. There is nothing to suggest that, in the area of our common security, Russia will resume respect for existing treaties and commitments. It is becoming increasingly isolated from the international community. Its recent hybrid operation to redirect foreign nationals to Finland's eastern border is further evidence of this trend. Russia is and will remain on the doorstep of the European Union. It is essential that, on the international stage, the European Union continues to act resolutely and in a spirit of unity to stem Russian aggression, that it prepares for the future and that it invests in defence.
Topic:
Defense Policy, European Union, Deterrence, Regional Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

2092. Cyprus: 20 years of membership of the European Union, between singularities and a theatre of geopolitical oppositions.

Author:
Maria-Christina Sotiropoulou
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Cyprus' history has been marked by a succession of foreign dominations that have shaped its complex identity and internal dynamics. Occupied by the Ottoman Empire in 1571, the island was subjected to the so-called Millet system for three centuries. During this period, Cypriot society was structured around distinct communities, mainly Greek and Turkish Cypriots, who coexisted under Ottoman rule. In 1878, Cyprus came under British administration, ushering in an era of modernization and growing nationalist tensions. Enosis, the plan for a union with Greece, supported by a large part of the Cypriot population, did not please the United Kingdom, which opposed it first directly as a colonial power, and then indirectly by supporting the Turkish Taksim plan for a division of the island. Indeed, in the aftermath of the Second World War, nationalist aspirations led to the independence of Cyprus in 1960, but this did not bring the hoped-for stability. Inter-communal conflicts between Greek and Turkish Cypriots worsened, exacerbated by external interference. The situation reached a point of no return with the military intervention, “Attila” in the summer of 1974, whose fiftieth anniversary deserves particular attention in view of the challenges facing the European Union. Justified by Ankara as a response to a Greek-backed coup d'état aimed at annexing the island, this invasion led to the division of Cyprus in two distinct parts and the displacement of large swathes of the population: the independent south, populated mainly by Greek Cypriots, and the Turkish-controlled north, the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus in 1983 which has only ever been recognized only by Türkiye.
Topic:
History, European Union, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Europe and Cyprus

2093. What to take away from the European law on artificial intelligence

Author:
Thaima Samman and Benjamin De Vanssay
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
On top of all these initiatives and legislations, the European Commission has proposed two directives to the regulation on Artificial Intelligence (“Artificial Intelligence Act”, hereafter AI Act) is a landmark piece of EU legislation in the field of AI. One of its primary aims is to regulate the use of this technology in a number of areas based on a risk-based approach. In that respect, the AI Act sets gradual obligations for the different parties involved in the AI value chain depending on the level of risk that the use of AI raises in concrete use cases. The AI Act should therefore be viewed as a targeted intervention, and not a cross-cutting legislation like the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). The AI Act was adopted by EU co-legislators in May 2024 and will enter into force 20 days after its publication in the Official Journal of the European Union on July 12. It will apply from August 2, 2026. Meanwhile, the Commission has launched the AI Pact, a voluntary initiative inviting AI providers to comply with the key obligations of the AI Act in advance of its entry into force.
Topic:
Law, European Union, Artificial Intelligence, Value Chains, and European Commission
Political Geography:
Europe

2094. European agriculture and Ukrainian agriculture complement each other

Author:
Alan Hervé
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Agriculture has long been the richest, most diversified and most innovative of Ukraine's economic and social activities. Since Russia launched its aggression against Ukraine in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea, it has also become the most essential for the country and the one that raises the most questions in its relations with the European Union, which it intends to join as soon as possible. Many accuse Ukraine of unfair competition: on wheat, which is seriously disrupting Poland's agrarian economy; on poultry meat, which is said to be a threat to French production; on sugar and, increasingly, on organic products. Beyond the particular circumstances we are currently experiencing, Ukraine could occupy a place of choice within an enlarged Union. Thanks to its high-performance agriculture, it could help to strengthen the Union's role in meeting the food needs of deficit countries, at a time when, without Ukraine, the European Union is losing market share all over the world, particularly to the growing competition from Russia. Ukraine's competitiveness should not be an obstacle to fruitful cooperation, if the accession negotiations agree to include all the key issues of climate change, ecological diversity and the aspiration of a majority of rural people to contribute to solving these problems. This paper outlines the issues at stake and the solutions we need to analyse together in order to take action, and thus to set a new and determined course for a Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) that has lost its way.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, European Union, Innovation, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

2095. A push to the right, but the outgoing majority coalition is expected to be renewed

Author:
Pascale Joannin
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The European elections were held from 6 to 9 June in the 27 Member States of the European Union. Turnout was higher than in 2019, demonstrating that people feel more concerned by European issues.
Topic:
Elections, European Union, Democracy, and Citizenship
Political Geography:
Europe

2096. Being European (free, modern and independent): a view from Central and Eastern Europe

Author:
Nathalie de Kaniv
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The philosophy and culture of the Enlightenment shaped the mental map of Europe, drawing a distinction between civilization and barbarism. The latter is now rising again, and contemporary geopolitics, turned upside down by the Russian war and the scale of aggression in the Middle East, is bringing the clash of civilizations back into focus. The war against the West, the anti-Western narrative, the confrontation between the free world and authoritarian regimes nostalgic for distant empires, the desire to create grey zones, barriers to the spread of values that are uncomfortable, even threatening, for hostile centralized systems, are challenging Europe. Authoritarianism, the aspiration to infinite power, corruption rooted in state governance, the use of repression against all opposition, the manipulation of international law and interference go hand in hand with militaristic slogans that promote the erasure of certain states from the world map, and illustrate the mutation of systems towards new forms of power. Clinging to undivided power, the designation of a common enemy fosters the attraction of war and murder. So, what is this West that some say they are fighting or want to do away with? What choices have those who fervently resist this threat made? What does it mean to be European, which has become a "raison d'être" in countries threatened by the Kremlin? Now is the time to take a closer look at the contribution of these states resisting the threat to our perception of what it means to be European. What does it mean to be European in Central and Eastern Europe[1], which has remained European despite the Iron Curtain? Far from seeking an exhaustive answer to this complex question, our aim is to examine some of the notions that permeate the European idea in Central and Eastern Europe.
Topic:
European Union, Democracy, Geopolitics, and Citizenship
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Europe

2097. Countries at Risk for Intrastate Mass Killing 2024–25: Early Warning Project Statistical Risk Assessment Results

Author:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
Policy makers face the challenge of simultaneously responding to ongoing mass atrocities and trying to prevent entirely new mass atrocity situations. A critical first step toward prevention is accurate and reliable assessment of countries at risk for future violence. The Early Warning Project’s Statistical Risk Assessment uses publicly available data and statistical modeling to produce a list of countries ranked by their estimated risk of experiencing a new episode, or onset, of intrastate mass killing. This report aims to help identify countries where preventive actions may be needed. Earlier identification of risk broadens the scope of possible preventive actions. In essence, our statistical model identifies patterns in historical data to answer the following question: Which countries today look most similar to countries that experienced mass killings in the past, in the year or two before those mass killings began? The historical data include basic country characteristics, as well as data on governance, war and conflict, human rights and civil liberties, and socioeconomic factors. This report highlights findings from our Statistical Risk Assessment for 2024–25, focusing on: Countries with the highest estimated risk of a new mass killing in 2024 or 2025 Countries where estimated risk has been consistently high over multiple years Countries where estimated risk has increased or decreased significantly from our last assessment Countries with unexpected results We emphasize that this assessment is just one tool. It is meant to be a starting point for discussion and further research, not a definitive conclusion. We aim to help governments, international organizations, and nongovernmental organizations determine where to devote resources for additional analysis, policy attention, and, ultimately, preventive action. We hope that this report and our Early Warning Project as a whole inspire governments and other organizations to invest in their own early warning capabilities.
Topic:
Genocide, Atrocity Prevention, Early Warning, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2098. Leveraging Social Media for Genocide and Mass Atrocity Prevention: Understanding the Digital Toolbox

Author:
Shannon Raj Singh
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
Much of the existing literature discussing social media focuses on how it might fuel or incite mass atrocities, drawing from experiences in contexts such as Sri Lanka and Burma. But there is significantly less awareness of how tools deployed or developed by social media companies might reduce the risk of mass violence and contribute constructively to atrocity prevention efforts. This report aims to address this gap by focusing on how social media tools can support two core atrocity prevention strategies: (1) protecting vulnerable civilian populations at risk of mass atrocities, and (2) degrading potential perpetrators’ capacity to commit mass atrocities. It provides a landscape assessment of the suite of social media product, policy, and operational interventions that may offer potential to support these strategies and articulates some of the associated limitations, risks, and important considerations when these tools are deployed. This report is primarily aimed at those inside social media companies with authority to develop or deploy tools in moments of heightened atrocity risk (which may include trust and safety professionals, human rights or crisis response teams, and senior leadership), as well as atrocity prevention experts and policy makers who may be able to encourage or incentivize the use of digital tools to support atrocity prevention. Select tools may also be of interest or use for humanitarian and civil society advocacy organizations that operate in atrocity risk settings. The objective of this report is to fill a gap by expanding the understanding of both policy makers and social media platform representatives about the available tools in the digital realm to support atrocity prevention efforts, to stimulate future research in this space, and to broaden our collective imaginations in designing modern atrocity prevention policy strategies that leverage digital tools and opportunities. This report is based on a series of semi-structured expert consultations, held under the Chatham House Rule of non-attribution, with more than 30 current and former representatives of social media companies, academics and practitioners specialized in technology and atrocity prevention, and members of at-risk communities who lent their experiences and insights to support this project. The report concludes that expanding the atrocity prevention toolbox to include digital tools and interventions offers an opportunity to develop more modern atrocity prevention strategies to meet the challenges of the moment.
Topic:
Social Media, Atrocities, Digital Policy, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:
South Asia, Sri Lanka, and Burma

2099. "A Perfect Storm is Gathering": Risk of Mass Atrocities in South Sudan

Author:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
The Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide has published two reports detailing the risk of mass atrocities in South Sudan, first in February 2022 and then in January 2023.1 In these reports, we identified a number of factors contributing to the risk of mass atrocities in South Sudan, including armed conflict in which civilians are targeted for brutal attacks, shrinking civic space, and the failure to fully and credibly implement measures of the peace agreement that ended South Sudan’s civil war in 2018. These challenges persist, exacerbated by the onset of war in neighboring Sudan and the impacts of severe flooding and drought. In September 2024, the government of South Sudan announced a two-year extension of the transitional period and postponed the holding of national elections. This extension is an opportunity for the government to make progress on key commitments to peace and justice. However, this delay is not itself a panacea for the mass atrocity risks that persist in South Sudan, which could see a return to violence if the transition falters or fails. This brief will examine ongoing and compounding risk factors for mass atrocities and offer recommendations for addressing these risks during the next two years.
Topic:
Elections, Transitional Justice, Atrocities, Armed Conflict, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

2100. An Uncertain Future: Preventing Mass Atrocities in Uganda

Author:
Ashleigh Landau and Ashleigh Landau
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
An Uncertain Future: Preventing Mass Atrocities in Uganda explains the factors behind three high-risk scenarios, identifies potential triggering events that could lead to violence against civilians, and proposes recommendations for how to mitigate the risk. In studying genocide and mass atrocities, we have learned that they are never spontaneous. They are always preceded by a range of early warning signs. If these signs are detected, their causes can be addressed, preventing the potential for catastrophic progression. This report is one of the components of the Early Warning Project, which includes both quantitative and qualitative assessments of atrocity risk. It is the sixth in a series of deep-dive qualitative assessments designed to assist policymakers, NGOs, and members of civil society in understanding the atrocity dynamics particular to the country in question and recommending preventative actions.
Topic:
Genocide, Atrocity Prevention, Early Warning, and Political Transition
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa