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57181. Albania's Parliamentary Elections 2001

Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Socialist Party's decision on 21 August to nominate Ilir Meta for another term as Prime Minister closed out the longest election in Albania's turbulent post-communist history. Voting for the parliament was held, extraordinarily, in four rounds on 24 June 2001, and 8, 22 and 29 July due to accusations of electoral fraud in various forms. It was, nevertheless, peaceful and produced a decisive victory for the ruling Socialist Party (SP). The Socialists, who have held power since 1997, won 73 seats in the 140-member legislature, against 46 for the Union for Victory (UfV) coalition, led by the Democratic Party (DP). The remaining 21 seats were allocated among five small parties, each of which gained the necessary 2.5 per cent of votes, and two independent candidates who won direct mandates. The results gave the Socialists a sufficient majority to form a new government and, crucially, with the aid of likely allies, to elect a new president in 2002 when the term of the incumbent, Rexhep Meidani, expires. Formation of that government, however, was delayed further weeks until the SP's General Steering Committee gave Meta an overwhelming victory in his bitter personal battle with the party chairman, Fatos Nano, who backed his own man for the prime minister's chair.
Topic:
Democratization, Nationalism, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Albania

57182. Macedonia: War on Hold

Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Macedonian and Albanian political leaders signed a political agreement – hailed by its Western midwives as a peace agreement – on 13 August 2001. NATO Secretary General Lord Robertson and the European Union's High Representative for Common Foreign and Security Policy, Javier Solana, flew to Skopje to attend the signing ceremony. But the strange context of the signing showed just how implausible it is that, without further extraordinary efforts, the agreement will actually provide a workable way to keep multiethnic Macedonia out of civil war. Details of the agreement had been hammered out by 8 August in Ohrid, a resort town chosen for the negotiations because it was some distance away from the latest fighting. Signature was delayed five days, however, while Macedonian government troops and ethnic Albanian rebels engaged in the deadliest series yet of tit-for-tat retaliations. Terms of the agreement were withheld from the public lest they provoke violent responses from hardliners on both sides. The ceremony, when it finally occurred, was carried out almost furtively, in a small room of the President's residence, without live television.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, Macedonia, and Albania

57183. Peace in Presevo: Quick Fix or Long Term Solution?

Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The past decade in the Western Balkans has seen very few peacefully negotiated transfers of territorial control. The most recent example ñ albeit one not involving any change of sovereignty - was also the only one achieved by NATOís direct mediation. In May 2001, the Presevo Valley was brought back under Serbian government control, ending an ethnic Albanian insurgency that had lasted some seventeen months.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Balkans

57184. Bosnia's Precarious Economy: Still not Open for Business

Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Bosnia's economic reality is still bleak. After more than five years and five billion dollars of Dayton implementation, the country seems only at the beginning of an economic transition that should have begun in 1996.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
Bosnia and Eastern Europe

57185. Montenegro: Resolving the Independence Deadlock

Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Ten months after the fall of Slobodan Miloöević , considerable progress has been made in establishing democratic governance in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) and reintegrating the country into the international community. Yet the future of the federation itself remains in doubt. The FRY is a hollow edifice whose institutions hardly function except as an address for the international community. Montenegroís authorities no longer recognise the legitimacy of the federal government. All sides agree that the status quo is unsustainable and that Montenegro and Serbia must find a new basis for their relationship.
Topic:
Government, Politics, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe

57186. Macedonia: Still Sliding

Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Despite the ceasefire announced on 26 July 2001, and the promised resumption of political talks in Tetovo on 27 July, Macedonia is still locked in crisis and threatened by war. Neither ethnic Macedonian nor ethnic Albanian leaders have been converted to belief in a 'civic' settlement that would strengthen democracy by improving minority conditions, without weakening the integrity of the state. Ethnic Macedonians fear that civic reforms will transform the country exclusively to its, and their, detriment, while ethnic Albanians are sceptical that any reforms can really be made to work in their favour. Nor have separatists from both sides, within the country and in the diaspora, given up their conviction that security for their communities can only be achieved by demarcating – and hence competing for – ethnically “pure” territory.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Macedonia, and Albania

57187. Milosevic in the Hague: What it Means for Yugoslavia and the Region

Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
On 28 June 2001, St Vitus's Day – an anniversary with enormous resonance in Yugoslavia – Serbian government transferred former Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic to The Hague. By this bold political move, the government demonstrated in the clearest way its will to break with the past. With the timing driven by the international donors conference scheduled for 29 June, the transfer also confirmed the effectiveness of conditioning economic assistance to Yugoslavia on concrete political progress.
Topic:
Security, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, and Serbia

57188. EU CRISIS RESPONSE CAPABILITY: Institutions and Processes for Conflict Prevention and Management

Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
It is less than a decade since the European Union (EU) was formally established and set itself the ambitious project of developing a common foreign and security policy. Less than four years have passed since the signing of the Amsterdam Treaty which provided key institutional foundations of that policy. And it is less than eighteen months since many of the bodies responsible for implementing the most difficult aspects – those related directly to crisis response – have been created. This process may be well appreciated by those closely involved in it, but it is opaque and puzzling to many others. This report aims to clarify the process for those outside it. It describes the roles of the new bodies, their relationship to previously existing ones, and the basic fit between their functions and the goals of conflict prevention and management. This report is largely descriptive, but its analysis of the institutions and processes does provide a foundation for some recommendations for improvement as the EU carries its work forward.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Security, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Europe

57189. The European Humanitarian Aid Office (ECHO): Crisis Response in the Grey Lane

Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
This briefing paper examines in broad terms likely directions in the policy of the European Humanitarian Aid Office (ECHO) in the next two to three years, with special reference to its position in the development of European Union (EU) crisis response structures and processes. Its particular focus is on how ECHO has responded to the "grey area" dilemmas: whether and how to separate emergency humanitarian assistance from longer term development assistance, and from "political" projects generally. Section I provides an overview of ECHO's structure and funding; Section II describes how the grey area has been addressed to date; Section III discusses how the issue arises again in the context of the development of the EU's new conflict prevention and management ambitions; while the concluding Section IV draws upon recent experience in Macedonia to support the case for a more pragmatic approach to ECHO's role.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Security, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Europe and Macedonia

57190. HIV/AIDS as a Security Issue

Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
It is projected that, at current rates, more than 100 million people worldwide will have been infected with HIV by 2005. Where the epidemic has hit hardest, Sub-Saharan Africa, experts believe AIDS will eventually kill one in four adults. Seven countries already have adult prevalence rates above 20 per cent of the population.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Security, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, China, Europe, India, Asia, and Southeast Asia