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56821. CIA's Strategic Intelligence in Iraq

Author:
Richard L. Russell
Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Political Science Quarterly
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
RICHARD L. RUSSELL examines the strengths and weaknesses of American intelligence during the Gulf War in gauging Iraqi political intentions and military capabilities. He finds that overall strategic intelligence served policy makers well, but that some shortcomings, particularly in human intelligence collection, need to be corrected if the United States is to successfully deal with Iraq in the post-September 11 world. The role of the CIA was diminished after the war, even though he finds that the CIA’s estimates were more accurate than those of the Defense establishment.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Intelligence, 9/11, Gulf War, and Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and United States of America

56822. An Interim Assessment of September 11: What Has Changed and What Has Not?

Author:
Robert Jervis
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Political Science Quarterly
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
ROBERT JERVIS argues that contrary to much conventional wisdom, terrorism has not weakened most states, understanding the “root causes” of terrorism is not a firm foundation for policy, the concept of a war on terrorism is flawed, and American policy is likely to be more unilateral than multilateral.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Terrorism, and 9/11
Political Geography:
United States of America

56823. The Soft Underbelly of American Primacy: Tactical Advantages of Terror

Author:
Richard Betts
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Political Science Quarterly
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
RICHARD BETTS argues that the September 11 attacks were a response to American primacy and then applies offense-defense theory to explain the intense advantages that terrorist groups have in launching offensive strikes and in exploiting the defenses that a nation can put up in this era of globalization and asymmetric warfare.
Topic:
Globalization, Terrorism, 9/11, and Asymmetric Relations
Political Geography:
United States of America

56824. Ending Welfare As We Know It: A Reform Still in Progress

Author:
Demetrios James Caraley
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Political Science Quarterly
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
DEMETRIOS JAMES CARALEY summarizes the political and social dynamics that brought about the repeal of Aid to Families of Dependent Children (AFDC) and analyzes the effects of the new Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program over its first four years. He considers possibilities for further changes in cash assistance for poor families during the program’s necessary reauthorization in 2002.
Topic:
Reform, Domestic Politics, Public Policy, Welfare, and Social Services
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

56825. Paying for the Privilege of Bank of England Charters, 1694-1843

Author:
J. Lawrence Broz
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
To discern the public and private motivations behind the establishment and continuance of the Bank of England, we analyze the timing of legislation that renewed the Bank’s charter. The Bank’s original 1694 charter specified a life of only eleven years; at the end of that time, the government could exercise an option to repay its loan to the Bank and dissolve the charter. In fact, the government did not exercise the option, and the Bank’s charter was periodically renewed. We argue that the rechartering process reflected the needs of the government to respond to unforeseen contingencies. The government initiated new charters when budgetary circumstances–shaped largely by wars–required new loans, and when the monopoly value of the Bank’s charter rose. The Bank gained from renegotiating its contract with the government when it faced new and unforeseen competition.
Topic:
Government, History, Banking, and Bank of England
Political Geography:
Europe and England

56826. Indivisible Territory and Ethnic War

Author:
Monica Duffy Toft
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
This article introduces a theory of ethnic war. It argues that the likelihood of ethnic violence is largely a function of how the principal antagonists—a state and its dissatisfied ethnic minority—think about territory. Attempts to negotiate a resolution short of war will fail when: (1) the ethnic minority demands sovereignty over the territory it occupies, and (2) the state views that territory as indivisible. Ethnic war is less likely to break out if only one of these conditions is met, and very unlikely if neither condition is met. The article first introduces a theory to explain ethnic war. It then presents a statistical analysis of the theory's key variables and tests the theory's causal logic by comparing Moscow's interactions with Tatarstan and with Chechnya. The article concludes with three implications: ethnic groups are rational; that certain settlement patterns will not be amenable to outside intervention; and partition may not be a good policy option to end violence.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Armed Conflict, and Partition
Political Geography:
Russia, Chechnya, and Tatarstan

56827. Organizing Violence

Author:
Robert Bates
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Coercion is as normal a part of life as is exchange; what matters is not its presence or magnitude but rather its structure and form. Violence can take the form of predation; it then results in mere redistribution. But violence can be rendered socially productive; it can be employed to defend property rights, thereby strengthening the incentives to engage in productive activity. To explore how violence can be rendered a source of increased welfare, we develop a model of a stateless society and then introduce a specialist in violence. Using the model and case materials, we explore the conditions under which the specialist will utilize her coercive capabilities not to engage in predation but rather to strengthen the incentives to engage in productive effort.
Topic:
Violence, Welfare, Productivity, Incentives, and Coercion
Political Geography:
Global Focus

56828. Liberal International Relations Theory: A Social Scientific Assessment

Author:
Andrew Moravcsik
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper, part of a multi-author project evaluating the evolution of theoretical paradigms in international relations (IR), evaluates the Liberal paradigm form a Lakatosian perspective. There is a distinct “Liberal” Scientific Research Program (SRP) in the study of international relations, based on three core assumptions. These Assumptions are shared by Ideational, Commercial and Republican variants of Liberal theory. The Liberal SRP is clearly progressive in the Lakatosian sense, that is, it explains a broad and expanding domain of empirical phenomena more accurately than competing research programs—and does so in such a way as to meet the specific Lakatosian criteria of “heuristic”, “temporal” and “background theory” novelty. Liberal theory is thus among the most promising, perhaps the most fruitful and promising, of contemporary paradigms in IR theory. Yet legitimate doubts can be raised about the utility of Lakatosian theory as a means to evaluate research in IR. In particular, one might question its view that theories from competing paradigms are mutually excusive, which encourages one-on-one testing of unicausal theories, rather than estimation of the proper (and sometimes overlapping) scope of paradigms, or the construction of multi-paradigmatic syntheses. Given the current stage of IR theory, these two tasks may offer greater explanatory insight into world politics than unicausal theory testing. This conclusion does not undermine, however, the positive assessment of Liberal theory, which both supports clear empirical scope conditions and can play a foundational role in fruitful multi-theory syntheses.
Topic:
International Relations, Research, and Social Science
Political Geography:
Global Focus

56829. Globalization and the Economic Crisis: The Indonesian Story

Author:
Ginandjar Kartasasmita
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
To what extent has globalization been a factor in Indonesia's economic turmoil? This essay addresses the question by reviewing the experience of the Indonesian economy as it evolved in the decade before the crisis and since the crisis hit. It starts by reviewing the policies adopted by the Indonesian government as it sought to integrate the economy more closely into the global market place and reviews the outcome of this earlier policy shift. The paper then turns to assess the impact of the Asian financial crisis but broadens the scope to include a review of domestic political and social stability. It traces the country's slow and halting movement towards recovery highlighting the major reasons why the economic collapse was so severe and why the recovery process has been slower than in neighboring countries. It also briefly reviews "pro" and "con" globalization arguments, and assesses the role globalization played in Indonesia's economic collapse, before concluding with lessons that can be drawn from the Indonesian experience. The author also looks at the role of the IMF in managing the crisis drawing upon his own role negotiating with the IMF during the critical period in Indonesia's economic and political history.
Topic:
Globalization, Crisis Management, IMF, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

56830. Banking Crises and the Effect of Political Checks and Balances on Special Interest Influence

Author:
Philip Keefer
Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper develops and tests a model of the effect of political checks and balances on the incentives of elected veto players to cater to special interests. A larger number of veto players reduces political incentives to make deals with special interests, but the effect is declining in the rents available from such deals. Evidence from country responses to banking crises supports these conclusions: governments make smaller fiscal transfers to the financial sector and are less likely to exercise forbearance in dealing with insolvent financial institutions the larger the number of political veto players, conditional on the value of rents at stake. This simple explanation for special interest influence is robust to controls for more subtle institutional effects that are prominent in the literature, including the competitiveness of elections, regime type (presidential versus parliamentary) and electoral rules (majoritarian versus proportional).
Topic:
Economics, Politics, Elections, Banking, and Banking Crisis
Political Geography:
Global Focus