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56802. The Balkans and the Caucasus: Conceptual Stepping-stones Towards the Formation of a New Single Geoeconomic, Geopolitical, and Geostrategic Region
- Author:
- Plamen Pantev
- Publication Date:
- 11-2002
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
- Abstract:
- The formulation of conceptual stepping-stones requires the consideration of at least two defining factors: First, how have the Balkans and the Caucasus evolved since the end of the Cold War? Second, what are the guiding principles in the formation of this new, vast economic, political, and strategic region stretching westwards from the Adriatic Sea and eastward from the Caspian Sea? This region is influenced by and influences global economic, political, and security processes, and benefits from the eastwards enlargement of the democratic civic and security space embodied by NATO and the EU.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Cold War, Politics, European Union, Geopolitics, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Caucasus, Eastern Europe, and Balkans
56803. Understanding Regional Economic Growth in India
- Author:
- Jeffrey D. Sachs, Nirupam Bajpai, and Ananthi Ramiah
- Publication Date:
- 03-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- This paper aims to understand the growth experiences of fourteen major states of India in the period 1980 to 1998. We use two measures of convergence, s-convergence and ß-convergence to examine whether per capita income in the states have been converging or diverging. By both standards of convergence, India demonstrated overall divergence during the period 1980-98, as well as during both the pre-reform and post-reform sub-periods. Interestingly, the richer states experienced a degree of convergence during the post-reform period, while the poorer states did not. Divergence was most notable within the poorer group of states. As against the U.S. states, Japanese prefectures and the European regions, both India and China display no signs of conditional convergence much less unconditional convergence. We suggest four possible hypotheses: (1) the geographical differences are larger in India and China than in the United States, Europe, and Japan; (2) population movements in the United States, Europe, or Japan more readily arbitrage differences across regions; (3) policies of the national or regional governments prevented convergence, and (4) economic convergence is easier at higher levels of economic development than in China and India. A remarkable 82 percent of the cross-state variation in growth is explained by just the urbanization variable in India, and with no hint of any conditional convergence after controlling for the degree of urbanization. The regression estimate shows that a 10-percentage-point higher rate of urbanization is associated with 1.3 percentage points per year higher annual growth. We also offer some preliminary explanations for the unusual growth experiences of some states. We consider four such mysteries: (1) the mediocre growth of Kerala despite excellent social indicators; (2) the relatively fast growth of landlocked, and arid Rajasthan; (3) the improved growth performance of landlocked Madhya Pradesh; and (4) the poor growth performance of coastal Orissa.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Regional Growth
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and India
56804. A Decade of Economic Reforms in India: The Unfinished Agenda
- Author:
- Nirupam Bajpai
- Publication Date:
- 03-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- This paper aims to assess the economic reforms in India undertaken during the 1990s. India has gone through the first decade of her reform process. Hence, an assessment of what has been achieved so far and what remains on the reform agenda is in order. Reforms in the industrial, trade, and financial sectors, among others, have been wide and deep. As a consequence, they have contributed more meaningfully in attaining higher rates of growth. A decade of opening of the economy has produced new dynamism, most dramatically in the information technology sector, but in others as well. The new technologies (especially information technology and biotechnology) give new opportunities for economic and social development. It is necessary to move swiftly to complete many of the reforms, which are now underway. Examples of such continuing reforms are the reduction in protection levels, continuing reforms in banking sector, product de-reservation for the small-scale industry, decontrol of prices, such as petroleum, reform of the power sector and so on. Among other things, sustaining higher rates of economic growth would require a more vigorous pursuit of economic reforms at both the federal and state levels. Significant reduction of fiscal deficit is the first order of business. Unless substantial fiscal consolidation is achieved, in our view, continued fiscal deficits pose India's greatest risk to future destabilization. Other critical reforms include, labor laws, exit policy, privatization of state-owned enterprises, further opening-up of the economy to trade and foreign direct investment. In addition, there is a vast amount of economic reform that can be carried out to improve conditions in rural India, especially in the Gangetic valley. The reforms implemented so far have helped India attain 6 plus percent growth, however, should India be able to implement the remaining reforms and re-orient governmental spending away from inessential expenditures towards high priority areas of health and education and infrastructure development, then it is very likely to attain and sustain even higher rates of economic growth.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Science and Technology, Reform, and Economic Growth
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and India
56805. Institutions, Geography, Regions, Countries and the Mobility Bias
- Author:
- Andrew Warner
- Publication Date:
- 05-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Recent research on the ultimate causes of the large differences in economic development across countries has framed the issue as a competition between geography and institutions. Some papers claim to have evidence that geography explains nothing after controlling for institutions. This paper argues and shows evidence that geography correlates with economic activity across regions within countries where institutions are far more constant than across countries. The paper also argues that mobility of factors can in theory completely mask the impact of geography if one looks only at output per-capita. Comparing cross-region with cross-country data and comparing regressions of output density with regressions of output per-capita, the paper finds evidence of this mobility bias. Finally the paper tries to integrate re-cent lines of research with an earlier line that looked at regional data as a laboratory to test for economies of scale. Overall the paper finds evidence for three important determinants of spatial income levels: geography, institutions and agglomeration economies associated with very large urban areas. One needs to consider all three to fully explain the pattern of economic activity across space.
- Topic:
- Institutions, Mobility, Economic Development, and Geography
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
56806. Impact of Patents on Access to HIV/AIDS Drugs in Developing Countries
- Author:
- Joan-Ramon Borrell and Jayashree Watal
- Publication Date:
- 05-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- This paper uses sales data on HIV/AIDS drugs in a sample of 34 low and middle income countries between 1995 and 1999 to assess empirically the impact of patents on unsubsidized access to a new drug therapy. There can be two possible effects of patents on access to new drugs in developing countries. On the one hand, patents may constrain access to new drugs through less competition and higher prices. On the other hand, patents may promote access to new therapy by encouraging innovators to launch new drugs in low and middle-income countries soon after introducing them in high-income countries. The net effect is theoretically ambiguous and, therefore, it is an empirical matter to evaluate. Our main finding is that patent rights do have a negative effect on unsubsidized access to HIV/AIDS drugs. Between 1995 and 1999, switching all HIV/AIDS drugs from a patent regime to a no patent regime would have actually increased access to therapy at least by 30%. However, we also find that the negative impact of patents on access differs strongly over time, and across countries with different income levels. Patents hurt access most in the early period from the date the drug is launched in the US, and in the countries of our sample with the relatively higher per capita income levels.
- Topic:
- HIV/AIDS, Health, Developing World, Drugs, and Patents
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
56807. Nutrition Knowledge Versus Schooling in the Demand for Child Micronutrient Status
- Author:
- Steven Block
- Publication Date:
- 08-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- This study extends the literature on the demand for child height to consider the demand for child micronutrient status. Micronutrient malnutrition is a pervasive and debilitating problem in many developing countries. A central focus concerns the distinct roles of maternal schooling versus maternal nutrition knowledge as determinants of micronutrient status. Applying both parametric and non-parametric techniques to Indonesian household data, the study finds that critical determinants include: child gender and age, the number of children in the household, household expenditure levels, access to water, and maternal nutrition knowledge. Maternal schooling contributes to child micronutrient status primarily through its effect on nutrition knowledge (for which schooling is not the primary source), and possibly through its effect on household expenditures.
- Topic:
- Education, Health, Human Resources, and Nutrition
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
56808. Political Institutions and Economic Policies: Lessons from Africa
- Author:
- Macartan Humphreys and Robert H. Bates
- Publication Date:
- 09-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Scholars, activists, and policy makers have argued that the route to economic growth in Africa runs through political reform. In particular, they prescribe electoral accountability as a step toward economic reform, seeing it as inducing the choice of publicly beneficial as opposed to privately profitable economic policies. To assess the validity of such arguments, we first characterize a set of political institutions that render political elites accountable and derive their expected impact on the policy choices of governments. Using ratings of macro-economic policy produced by the World Bank and ratings of corrupt practices produced for private investors, we explore the relationship between institutional forms and policy choices on both an African and global sample. While key elements of the model find empirical support, the central argument receives mixed support in the data. Political institutions have a stronger influence on policy making in Africa than elsewhere and variation in African institutions and in the structure of African economies account for differences between policy choices in Africa and those made in the rest of the world. Political accountability however does not influence the choice of macro-economic policies in the manner suggested by reformist arguments; although it does appear to lead to less political predation.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Political Economy, Elections, Economic Growth, and Institutions
- Political Geography:
- Africa
56809. Targeted Programs in an Economic Crisis: Empirical Findings from Indonesia’s Experience
- Author:
- Lant Pritchett, Sudarno Sumarto, and Asep Suryahadia
- Publication Date:
- 09-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- In response to the economic, natural, and political crisis that enveloped Indonesia from August 1997 (beginning of depreciation) to May 1998 (resignation of Soeharto), the new government announced support for a set of “safety net” (JPS) programs in July 1998 budget. These included: (a) targeted sales of subsidized rice, (b) work creation programs, (c) scholarships to students and block grants to schools, (d) targeted health care subsidies, (e) community block grants. We used cross sectional and panel data to examine the targeting of these programs. First, "static participation incidence" (the relationship between program participation and household consumption expenditures) was substantially better than a uniform transfer, but substantially worse than perfect targeting --and remarkably similar for all of the JPS programs. Second, unlike standard static incidence measures, what we define as dynamic participation incidence — the relationship between changes in consumption expenditures and program participation — was very different between the JPS programs. The employment creation programs which relied on self-selection targeting was much more likely to reach those households with large shocks to their expenditures than programs based on administrative targeting such as subsidized rice sales, scholarships, and health subsidies. Third, larger coverage does not lead to either better or worse targeting: there is no general tendency across the programs for marginal incidence to be above, or below, average incidence. Fourth, the targeting design of many of the programs was not followed strictly in implementation in all of the programs. Community and individual characteristics that were de jure irrelevant played a role in targeting in practice. In the rice program, community influence led to the program going to many more than the eligible individuals. In other programs, individual characteristics appear to have influenced targeting.
- Topic:
- Economics, Financial Crisis, and Subsidies
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia and Southeast Asia
56810. Small Producer Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon: Integrating Household Structure and Economic Circumstance in Behavioral Explanation
- Author:
- Marcellus Caldas, Robert Walker, and Stephen Perz
- Publication Date:
- 10-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- This study examines the impact household structure and economic circumstances on deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. It presents the results of an analysis conducted at property level, using both survey data and information derived from remote sensing. Regression analyses and spatial autocorrelation tests are given, following a theoretical development integrating notions of the household economy with von Thünen. The results from the empirical model indicate that social and demographic characteristics of households, as well as institutional and market factors, affect land use decisions. Thus, aggregate studies and spatially explicit models that do not include household information may be subject to specification bias.
- Topic:
- Economics, Deforestation, Remote Sensing, and Behavioral Modeling
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, South America, and Amazon Basin