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55432. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: April 2000
- Publication Date:
- 04-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index decreased by 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.5 percent, and the lagging index increased by 0.6 percent in April. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components continue to show a strong economy: The indicators point to a continuation of the expansion during 2000, though at a slower pace than that of the last six months. The biggest risk to the ongoing expansion remains the interest-rate increases at hand, and the prospect of still more Federal Reserve action. The most immediate risk would be a sustained inverted yield curve.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
55433. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: March 2000
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index increased 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased 0.4 percent, and the lagging index held steady in March. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a strong economy: The coincident indicators show that the economy continued to expand through March. Coupled with no change in the lagging index, the coincident-to-lagging ratio shows that last months decline was merely a one-month aberration. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion during 2000, though not at the pace of the last six months. The lagging index shows that cyclical imbalances were not a problem in March, but should be monitored for future increases.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
55434. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: February 2000
- Publication Date:
- 02-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index decreased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.8 percent in February. Taken together, the long-term outlook remains positive: The coincident indicators show that the economy continued to expand through the second month of the year. With the release of February data, the expansion that began in the early 1990's is now the longest expansion in U.S. history. Despite a decline in the leading indicators, continued economic growth is expected. Cyclical imbalances and related economic instability, as measured by the lagging index, must be monitored for future increases.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
55435. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: January 2000
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.4 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.2 percent in January. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a strong economy: The coincident indicators show that the economy continued to expand through the first month of the year. With the release of January data, the economy has tied the expansion of the 1960's as the longest expansion in U.S. history. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion during 2000. The lagging index shows that cyclical imbalances were not a problem in January.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States
55436. Re-Armament in Sierra Leone: One Year After the Lomé Peace Agreement
- Author:
- Eric Berman
- Publication Date:
- 12-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- On 7 July 1999, the government of Sierra Leone and the Revolutionary United Front (RUF) signed the Lomé Peace Agreement in an effort to end over eight years of civil war between the government and the RUF. This confl ict resulted in tens of thousands of deaths and the displacement of more than 2 million people – well over one-third of the total population – many of whom are now refugees in neighbouring countries. A central component of this agreement called for the RUF to disarm. But this did not happen. Instead, a year later, the RUF leader, Foday Sankoh, was in the custody of the Sierra Leonean government and the future of the peace accord was in grave doubt.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation and War
- Political Geography:
- Africa
55437. ASEM 3: More Talk or Move Forward?
- Author:
- Yeo Lay Hwee
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- The Third ASEM Summit (ASEM 3) was held in Seoul on 20-21 October 2000. Openly, those who participated in the meeting, and several of the Asian newspapers, particularly the Korean papers, were happy to hail the meeting as a "success". What does it mean? With the presence of all heavy-weight European and Asian leaders - Tony Blair, Jacques Chirac, Gerhard Schroeder, Zhu Rongji, Yoshiro Mori, Abdurrahman Wahid, and the adoption of three Documents - The Chairman's Statement; Seoul Declaration for Peace on the Korean Peninsula; and the Asia-Europe Cooperation Framework 2000, it is possibly the best outcome one could hope for under the cloud of rumours of forum-fatigue, acrimonious debates about human rights, increasing divergences and complaints on the slow progress of some key initiatives such as the Trade Facilitation Action Plan (TFAP) during the preparatory process. That the meeting was held smoothly under tight security without any major disruptions from anti-globalisation protestors was another triumph for the Korean government, especially in the wake of a series of street protests and demonstrations that targeted and disrupted several international meetings since the Seattle fiasco in November last year.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Government
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Asia
55438. The fall of Milosevic and the Kosovo problem
- Author:
- Kenneth Schmidt Hansen
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Despite all precautions taking by Slobodan Milosevic the Presidential elections held in Yugoslavia 24 September 2000 turned out to be his Waterloo. It is an outspread belief that the political regime in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia that Slobodan Milosevic represented was one of the last obstacles to bringing peace and stability to the Balkans. Despite this outspread belief, it is in this paper argued that the problems in Kosovo are not just the product of the policy pursued by Milosevic which implies that they not necessarily will be easier solved in the years to come even though a democratic revolution has taken place in Yugoslavia. No solution to the Kosovo problem seems available that will satisfy both the Serbs and the Kosovo-Albanians. But perhaps most interesting, it seems reasonable to argue that even maintaining status quo, i.e. not deciding for the final status of Kosovo, might turn out to be a problem for the current democratic developments in Belgrade.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, and Albania
55439. Back in the U.S.S.R.? Russia as an Actor in World Politics
- Author:
- Mette Skak
- Publication Date:
- 07-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- The gap between the structural reality surrounding Russia and the cognitive level of Russian foreign policy making is highlighted. The literature on Russian foreign policy is reviewed, distinguishing between 'optimists' and 'pessimists'. The analysis differentiates between 'milieu goals' and 'possession goals' and traces the pursuit of these goals in Czarist Russian, Soviet and postcommunist Russian foreign policy. The conclusion is that possession goals – hard-core realism, as it were – remain the dominant feature of Russian foreign policy (as in the Soviet era). This challenges the theory of democratic peace. This finding is then subjected to a policy-oriented criticism of Russian foreign policy. Three examples of dysfunctional Russian foreign policy are addressed: the misguided pursuit of multipolarity, myth and reality about regional priorities, and Russian self-destructive partisanship in ex-Yugoslavia. The final section raises the eternal Russian questions of Kto vinovat? and Shto delat'?On the causal factors behind the observed traits of irrationality, the analysis emphasises the volatile, 'praetorian' decision-making environment. Concerning policy implications, the dialogue with Russia must address features of realism, for instance by marketing the virtue of internal balancing, and as for concessions, formally dismiss foreign policy doctrines of spheres-of-influence like the Monroe doctrine as anachronistic in an era of globalization.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia
55440. The Emergence of the New Nordic Co-operation
- Author:
- Tom Schumacher
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Nordic Co-operation is an outstanding example of how radically many international institutions changed their functions, working structures and not at least their motives of existence since 1989. It is significant that this regional institution is now aiming to influence developments in third countries and consequently plays its own role in the reconstruction of Europe after the end of the Cold War. This article investigates the motives behind this transformation. After reviewing theoretical and empirical research on institutional adaptation done by other scholars of International Relations, the dimensions of change in Nordic Co-operation will be shown by contrasting its motives, institutions and tasks in the decades before and after 1989. One interesting and quite relevant factor seems to be a certain dynamic of development which is a result of reciprocal interaction with other international institutions in Northern Europe. This aspect will be a special focus of this paper.
- Topic:
- Security, Civil Society, and Cold War
- Political Geography:
- Europe