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21. Understanding and Responding to Global Democratic Backsliding

Author:
Thomas Carothers and Benjamin Press
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Over the past two decades, democratic backsliding has become a defining trend in global politics. However, despite the extensive attention paid to the phenomenon, there is surprisingly little consensus about what is driving it. The most common explanations offered by analysts—ranging from the role of Russia and China and disruptive technologies to the rise of populism, the spread of political polarization, and democracies’ failure to deliver—fall short when tested across a wide range of cases. A more persuasive account of backsliding focuses on the central role of leader-driven antidemocratic political projects and the variety of mechanisms and motivations they entail. This paper identifies and analyzes three distinct types of backsliding efforts: grievance-fueled illiberalism, opportunistic authoritarianism, and entrenched-interest revanchism. In cases of grievance-fueled illiberalism, a political figure mobilizes a grievance, claims that the grievance is being perpetuated by the existing political system, and argues that it is necessary to dismantle democratic norms and institutions to redress the underlying wrongs. Opportunistic authoritarians, by contrast, come to power via conventional political appeals but later turn against democracy for the sake of personal political survival. In still other backsliding cases, entrenched interest groups—generally the military—that were displaced by a democratic transition use undemocratic means to reassert their claims to power. Although motivations and methods differ across backsliding efforts, a key commonality among them is their relentless focus on undermining countervailing governmental and nongovernmental institutions that are designed to keep them in check. As international democracy supporters continue to refine their strategies of responding to democratic backsliding, they must better differentiate between facilitating factors and core drivers. Such an approach will point to the need for a stronger focus on the nature of leader-driven antidemocratic projects, identifying ways to create significant disincentives for backsliding leaders, and bolstering crucial countervailing institutions. Moreover, they should deepen their differentiation of strategies to take account of the diverse motivations and methods among the three main patterns of backsliding. Only in this way will they build the needed analytic and practical capacity to meet the formidable challenge that democratic backsliding presents.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Democracy, Populism, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
Global Focus

22. The Crisis of Civilization Paradigm: Co-Radicalization of Islamist and Populist Groups in Europe

Author:
Ayhan Kaya
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
Europe is facing several problems, some of which revolve around the issues of migration and integration of third-country nationals. Civilizational and culturalist paradigms seem to have poisoned how many European citizens have perceived Muslim-origin people. In this short intervention, Islamophobism, populism, nativism, Islamism, radicalization, extremism, violence, and terrorism are among the issues to be discussed, deliberated, and communicated. This intervention attempts to elaborate the destructive nature of the civilizational paradigm in Europe, leading to the co-radicalization of Islamist and right-wing populist groups.
Topic:
Radicalization, Populism, Discrimination, and Political Extremism
Political Geography:
Europe

23. The Pandemic Exposes and Exacerbates Existing Problems of Inequality and Polarization

Author:
Joshua Kurlantzick
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
During the COVID-19 pandemic, while some democracies (such as Canada and Australia) have been able to respond effectively, the five large democracies of the United States, Brazil, India, Indonesia, and the Philippines have suffered severe effects on public health. In this commentary, Joshua Kurlantzick, a Senior Fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, explains how social and economic inequalities in these countries are the cause of their ineffective responses to the pandemic. He then points out how populist politicians in these countries have exacerbated inequality during the pandemic with their rhetoric and policy. The author then argues that despite political, economic, and social problems in these countries, leaders have an opportunity to alleviate inequality through major democratizing reforms, as there is a public sentiment of wanting to work together to overcome the pandemic.
Topic:
Democracy, Inequality, Populism, Public Health, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Indonesia, India, Brazil, Philippines, and United Nations

24. Sri Lanka’s Arab Spring Moment: Can Asia’s Oldest Democracy Weather the Crisis?

Author:
Niranjan Sahoo
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Sri Lanka, Asia`s oldest democracy, faces political and economic crisis, and protests continue on the streets day after day. Niranjan Sashoo, a Senior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, discusses the deeper structural factors and historical background behind the political and economic crisis in this issue briefing. Dr. Sahoo states that it`s hard to predict where Sri Lanka`s future democracy will go, but the long-running rule of the Rajapaksa family is likely to end as protests continue to demand the resignation of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. He argues that the resignation of the pro-China Rajapaksa family is an opportunity for Sri Lanka to move away from China`s influence and deepen ties with major democracies in Asia and the West.
Topic:
Corruption, Democracy, and Populism
Political Geography:
South Asia and Sri Lanka

25. Authoritarian Populism as a Response to Crisis: The Case of Brazil

Author:
Esra Akgemci
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
This article demonstrates that the authoritarian populist strategy is most appealing when leaders create a sense of crisis and present themselves as having the only solution. The article underlines three performative methods of how Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil offered simple answers for a crisis and portrayed other political actors as the responsible ones to be removed. Firstly, nativism presents a conservative view on how politics should be structured by perceiving all “non-natives” as threatening. Secondly, messianism, the fetishism of Bolsonaro as a “messiah” who leads the way in the battle between “good” and “evil,” serves to reinforce the support of the Evangelist base against “PT members.” Finally, conspiracism provides an easy way to eradicate ambiguities and helps to fuel an antagonism against the “enemy.”
Topic:
Security, Authoritarianism, Populism, Nativism, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

26. Duterte’s pandemic populism: Strongman leadership, weak state capacity, and the politics of deployment in the Philippines

Author:
Julio C. Teehankee
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic undermined the populist legacy of Philippine president Rodrigo R. Duterte. Despite implementing one of the longest and strictest lockdowns globally, the country has struggled with controlling the pandemic. While Duterte looks to have triumphed in his attack on human rights and press freedom, his government’s record in combating the virus has been spotty at best. Yet Duterte’s populism has proven to be resilient. He has remained extremely popular, with a September 2021 national survey reporting 81 per cent approval of his government’s response to the pandemic and 91 per cent of respondents expressing trust in his leadership. The irony of Duterte’s populist resilience amid his poor pandemic response serves to highlight his mastery of political deployment within a weak state. Two significant inputs are required to deploy state capacity into a range of outcomes: political coalitions (including leadership, classes, and parties) and a balance of social forces. The ‘politics of deployment’ depends on the quality of decision-making of state leadership and the political coalitions forged to support such decision-making. Decisions, in turn, depend on the balance of social forces—the resistance or support of various sectors in society. This paper will unpack Duterte’s deployment of ‘brute force governance’ (which he earlier employed in his bloody ‘war on drugs’) in addressing the COVID19 crisis in the Philippines.
Topic:
Populism, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Rodrigo Duterte
Political Geography:
Philippines and Asia-Pacific

27. The ghost people and populism from above: The Kais Saied case

Author:
Malek Lakhal
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Since Kais Saied dismissed Hichem Mechichi’s government in July 2021, several political concepts emerged to interpret what happened in Tunisia, either to legitimize or denounce Saied’s measures. This article examines Saied’s brand of populism and looks at how his failure to mobilize the people he claims to represent is slowly sinking Tunisia into authoritarianism.
Topic:
Governance, Leadership, Populism, and Mobilization
Political Geography:
Africa and Tunisia

28. How Populism Dies: Political Weaknesses of Personalistic Plebiscitarian Leadership

Author:
Kurt Weyland
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Political Science Quarterly
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
Kurt Weyland examines the weaknesses of populist leadership. He argues that populist leaders are prone to errors and misdeeds, have difficulty dealing with other political forces, and face institutional and external constraints. Consequently, he concludes, they damage and suffocate democracy not as easily and frequently as recent observers have feared.
Topic:
Democracy, Leadership, Populism, and Political Science
Political Geography:
Global Focus

29. Populism and COVID19: How Populist Governments (Mis)Handle the Pandemic

Author:
Michael Bayerlein, Vanessa A. Boese, Scott Gates, Katrin Kamin, and S. Mansoob Murshed
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
Populist parties and actors now govern various countries around the world. Often elected by the public in times of crises and over the perceived failure of ‘the elites’, the question stands as to how populist governments actually perform once elected, especially in times of crisis. Using the pandemic shock in the form of the COVID-19 crises, our paper answers the question of how populist governments handle the pandemic. We answer this question by introducing a theoretical framework according to which populist governments (1) enact less far-reaching policy measures to counter the pandemic and (2) lower the effort of citizens to counter the pandemic, so that populist governed countries are (3) hit worse by the pandemic. We test these propositions in a sample of 42 countries with weekly data from 2020. Employing econometric models, we find empirical support for our propositions and ultimately conclude that excess mortality in populist governed countries exceeds the excess mortality of conventional countries by 10 percentage points (i.e., 100%). Our findings have important implications for the assessment of populist government performance in general, as well as counter-pandemic measures in particular, by providing evidence that opportunistic and inadequate policy responses, spreading misinformation and downplaying the pandemic are strongly related to increases in COVID-19 mortality.
Topic:
Governance, Populism, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

30. Local David Versus Global Goliath: Populist Parties and the Decline of Progressive Politics in Italy

Author:
Matteo Cavallaro
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the role of local spending, particularly on social welfare, and local inequality as factors in the Italian political crisis following the adoption in 2011 of more radical national austerity measures. We employ two different methods. First, we develop an original database of municipal budgets. There we show that even the lowest level of social welfare spending, that offered by Italian municipalities, though also hit by austerity, was still able to moderate this national shock. We test three operationalizations of local spending: aggregate current expenditures, aggregate current expenditures on social services, and current expenditures disaggregated by function. We show that municipal current expenditures, particularly on social spending, significantly affected the post-2011 share of votes for the progressive coalition. The results also show that social spending, especially on education, significantly moderated the combined effect of national austerity and the economic crisis on voting for populist radical right parties, while no significant results appeared for populist parties in general. Local inequality appears to significantly enhance vote shares of populist radical right parties and populist parties in general. We caution that, although significant, the effect is not strong: that local policy and economic conditions can moderate national shocks but cannot reverse them. The second analysis relies on survey data to ascertain the individual-level mechanisms behind the role of local welfare. The paper argues that local economic inputs influence voters’ position on non-economic issues. Our results, however, do not identify any significant individual-level channel of transmission, be it cultural or economic.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Inequality, Populism, and Austerity
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy