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1. Transgressive Sexual Politics, Structural Homophobia: Wilders and Milei in the Global Populist Radical Right

Author:
Luca Ghislandi
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:
School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:
This article examines how sexuality operates as a strategic instrument within the ideological configurations of the Populist Radical Right (PRR) by comparing Geert Wilders in the Netherlands and Javier Milei in Argentina. Both leaders appear to challenge the PRR’s traditional sexual conservatism: Wilders by portraying himself as a defender of LGBT rights and Milei by performing a libertarian, sexually transgressive persona. Yet, both ultimately reproduce structural forms of homophobia. Drawing on discourse analysis, frame analysis, and process tracing, the paper argues that these seemingly divergent stances constitute localized rearticulations of the PRR’s core triad of nativism, authoritarianism, and populism. Wilders’ “civilizational liberalism” weaponizes queer rights to define Dutch identity against a racialized Muslim “Other,” enacting conditional inclusion and rendering migrant and Muslim queer subjects invisible. Milei’s “libertarian anti-statism” fuses sexual libertarianism with anti-gender politics, using anti-elitist and market-oriented rhetoric to dismantle the state infrastructures that sustain gender and sexual equality, a form of institutional subtraction. Despite opposite performances–Wilders as celibate guardian, Milei as transgressive iconoclast–both mobilize sexuality to police the boundaries of citizenship, legitimize masculine authority, and reinforce exclusionary national imaginaries. The analysis situates these cases within broader global trends in the PRR, demonstrating that contemporary far-right sexual politics no longer depend on explicit moral conservatism but instead on the modernization of homophobia: maintaining inequality through the languages of freedom, tolerance, and civilization.
Topic:
Politics, Populism, Ideology, Radical Right, and Homophobia
Political Geography:
Europe, Argentina, South America, and Netherlands

2. Duterte’s Populist Foreign Policy as Illiberal Defiance: Consequences and Prospects

Author:
Aries A. Arugay
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Barely two months into his presidency of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte attended the 2016 Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Vientiane, Laos. The former mayor of Davao City had just swept the presidential election to become the first executive from outside of the Manila-based political establishment. Rather than reading a scripted speech, he launched into an impromptu tirade about colonial atrocities by the United States. Duterte went on to defend his violent war on drugs and rebut the criticisms of his equally violent purge of suspected criminals.1 The world was shocked by the bad manners exhibited by Duterte, especially his insult to then U.S. president Barack Obama.2 This was the beginning of the shift in Philippine foreign policy toward a more populist, illiberal, and revisionist posture—one that would last until Duterte’s presidency ended in 2022. This essay advances two core arguments about how Duterte’s right-wing populism shaped Philippine foreign policy. First, Duterte’s foreign policy was not motivated by an ideology, so much as by a performance anchored in symbolic defiance, personalized diplomacy, and selective norm rejection.3 Second, Duterte’s populist revisionism ultimately collided with entrenched structural constraints, including the country’s enduring security dependence on the United States, institutional resistance within the bureaucracy, and the democratic political succession that brought the nonpopulist President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to power. Taken together, these constraints exposed the limits of populist foreign policy in a small and militarily vulnerable state situated on the front lines of the U.S.-China rivalry. Since Duterte was elected, there has been widespread recognition that populism’s impact goes beyond national borders. In Europe, for instance, populists tended not to touch traditional foreign policy and security issues until the 2015 refugee crisis. The wave of populism that followed was marked by a contempt for the cosmopolitan European outlook that had long underpinned support for the European Union, liberal migration policies, and Europe’s reliance on the United States for its security.4 Populists on both the left and right are often skeptical of multilateral institutions because they restrain state power. Venezuela’s former president Hugo Chávez, for example, attempted to form alternative regional institutions in the Americas to counter U.S. hegemony.5 The revisionist impulse inherent in populism inclines its leaders toward foreign policy adventurism, even though abrupt shifts are uncommon given the durability of national strategic interests. Populist leaders also often exhibit a high risk tolerance—especially personalist leaders in command of highly concentrated state power.6 Moreover, they often see foreign policy as a means of weakening their political opponents and consolidating power at home. They also crave international recognition, which they pursue through “megaphone diplomacy” that foregrounds their personality and charisma.7 The burden of managing foreign relations is bearable for the populist up to the point that strategic reality intervenes, imposing itself in ways that leave scant room for performance. Populist politics, therefore, are unable to resist the water’s edge. This essay proceeds by tracing the right-wing populist currents in Philippine foreign policy under Duterte through three major international issues: disputes with China in the South China Sea, the attempted abrogation of the Visiting Forces Agreement with the United States, and the country’s withdrawal from the International Criminal Court (ICC). Respectively, each of these issues foregrounds one of the foundations of Philippine foreign policy that Duterte attempted to undermine: international law, the Philippines’ alliance with the United States, and human rights. The essay goes on to analyze how these foreign policy stances resonated with the revisionist orientations of countries that Duterte sought inspiration from—namely China and Russia. These revisionist narratives were reinforced in the Philippines through domestic disinformation networks that learned strategies from Russia and China.8 Finally, the essay highlights the implications of Duterte’s populist policies under the Marcos Jr. administration and examines the prospects of their revival in the future.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Populism, and Illiberalism
Political Geography:
Asia and Philippines

3. The French Far Right’s Foreign Policy: Big Ambitions, Uncertain Direction

Author:
Catherine Fieschi
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
France occupies a singular position in Europe when it comes to right-wing populist and far-right politics. The country is home to one of the oldest and most electorally successful far-right and populist traditions in Western Europe—from its pre–Second World War thinkers such as Charles Maurras and groups such as Action Française to the tax revolt movement of Pierre Poujade in the 1950s and now the political party known as the Rassemblement National (National Rally)—yet no right-wing populist or far-right party has captured the presidency since the Second World War. At the same time, in France of all European countries, such a takeover would have the most immediate and consequential foreign policy effects, given the extraordinary concentration of diplomatic and military authority vested in the French presidency itself. The case of the National Rally offers a useful window into the intersection of populism, foreign policy, and strong presidentialism. Specifically, it highlights the difficulties populist leaders encounter in building alliances, both globally and within Europe, and helps explain why populists may end up hedging on key foreign policy positions. The possibility of a Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella presidency, moreover, underscores a broader risk: that right-wing populism in middle powers could erode the very international order that has enabled middle powers to attain and sustain their influence. The differences between the National Rally’s two leaders—Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella—are also emblematic of a broader divide among right-wing populists in Europe: On the one side, there are those who aim to reshape Europe from within by steering EU institutions in a conservative-national direction. Hungary’s ousted Viktor Orbán and Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni loosely embody this side, which in France is represented by Jordan Bardella. On the other side, there are those who reject the EU’s supranational constraints altogether. Matteo Salvini, Italy’s deputy prime minister, represents the latter, which in France is closer to Le Pen. What makes France distinctive is that this divide exists within a single party and between its two potential presidential candidates for 2027—with Le Pen retaining the loyalty of much of the party’s cadre, but with Bardella, despite internal resistance, also commanding broad electoral support.1 In France, the question of who will campaign for the presidency will therefore be critical.2 Le Pen—and her “brand”—remains the party’s strongest electoral asset and would likely have a better chance of winning a presidential election than Bardella. Yet her instincts remain more confrontational toward Europe and multilateral institutions. By contrast, while Bardella is more market-friendly and potentially less disruptive internationally, he remains—despite his popularity with voters—untested in the uniquely demanding environment of French presidential campaigning.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Populism, Domestic Politics, and Far Right
Political Geography:
Europe and France

4. Hungary as a Trailblazer: the Rise of Illiberal Democracy and its Discontents

Author:
Péter Magyar
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
In the fast-changing political landscape of Europe, Hungary has set a controversial example of a new style of governance[1]. Viktor Orbán’s Hungary is often seen as the pioneer of illiberal democracy, rejecting liberal democratic norms in favour of centralizing power, manipulating narratives, and eroding the checks and balances of the state. Orbán’s rise and methods have had a profound impact on the political trajectories of other European nations, influencing populist leaders from Poland to Serbia, but also from France to the Netherlands. Yet, Hungary’s transformation and its broader implications for the future of European politics remain largely misunderstood by many in the West.
Topic:
Governance, Populism, Illiberal Democracy, Viktor Orbán, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and Hungary

5. American Populism, American Personhood

Author:
Colin Anthony MacNairn
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
Current American populism—an endogenous product of liberal capitalism— functions less as an interruption of liberal democracy than as the political form through which its contradictions are expressed. Starting from that premise, this essay traces how citizens, rendered economically superfluous and politically abstracted, reach for meaning through affective grievance—grievance that populism captures, reroutes, and converts into allegiance. By placing C.B. Macpherson’s critique of possessive individualism in dialogue with Dietrich Bonhoeffer’s analysis of moral incapacitation, A.N. Whitehead’s insights on simplified ideals, and Kant’s republican account of public right, this essay reconstructs the mechanisms by which structural dispossession is transformed into cultural antagonism. Through political-theoretical argument augmented with empirical illustrations, this essay provocatively demonstrates that American populism’s emotional economy reinforces the very structure it claims to resist and why any democratic renewal ought to begin with a reconstruction of personhood itself
Topic:
Politics, Capitalism, Populism, Donald Trump, Illiberal Democracy, Critical Democratic Theory, and New Democratic Theory
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

6. Botswana land policies, colonial legacy, socio-economic injustice and the politics of populism

Author:
Sheila Khama
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:
This briefing highlights the key challenges and policy recommendations related to Botswana’s land tenure system, with a particular focus on the government’s recent acquisition of land from the Tati Company and its implications for land governance and socioeconomic justice. Historically, Botswana's land tenure system evolved through pre- and post-colonial eras, divided into three categories: communal (tribal), state (formerly Crown), and freehold land. Despite minimal white settler presence compared to other African nations, land ownership by former colonial settlers remains a sensitive issue, raising questions about socioeconomic equity. A 2023 government purchase of 45,000 hectares of freehold land from the Tati Company reignited debate on land ownership and absentee landlords, as well as urban land shortages. The transaction, while symbolic, was criticised for failing to address deeper land access issues. The purchase underscored ongoing tensions around land rights and the state’s need to ensure equitable land distribution and effective use.
Topic:
Post Colonialism, Populism, Socioeconomics, and Land Policy
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

7. Slovakia: civil society opposes its leaders

Author:
Radovan Gura and Gilles Rouet
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
For some years now, Slovakia has been going through a period of profound political change. Marked by a complex history influenced by the Pan-Slavic movement and the legacy of the communist period, the Slovak political scene is characterised by growing instability, a division of society and a rise in populist discourse. Successive events have fuelled discontent and protests, which are now directed at the Prime Minister Robert Fico.
Topic:
Civil Society, Elections, Populism, Domestic Politics, and Post-Communism
Political Geography:
Europe and Slovakia

8. Europeans still want climate action, but don't trust governments to deliver

Author:
Jan Eichhorn and Heather Grabbe
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
The vast majority of Europeans continues to support action to combat climate change, but many are losing faith in governments to deliver a transition that is effective and fair. Based on a large-scale questionnaire answered by nearly 8000 people in five EU countries in 2024, with a comparison to responses from 2020, we find that Europeans continue to worry about climate change and want effective action to combat it, even though the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine significantly increased their concerns about economic and physical insecurity. Scepticism about the causes of climate change has risen a bit, and concern about adapting to its impact has grown. People across all income groups, particularly in France, Germany, Italy and Sweden, feel negative about the outlook for their economic future and their governments’ ability to improve it. People who feel politically disaffected think that decisionmakers are not taking their views and interests into account when making economic and climate policies. Some people are now shifting their attention away from action against the climate crisis towards adaptation, but this does not mean they are less concerned about climate change. Instead, for some people, it is an expression of their disillusionment with state institutions – and this feeling is present among supporters of parties across the political spectrum. Worry about climate change is equally spread across all socio-economic groups. Closer examination of attitudes in Germany, using evidence from focus groups, which we also discuss in this Policy Brief, reinforces the finding of increasing scepticism about the German government’s ability to manage the climate crisis. If political leaders want the public to continue to support climate policies, they must engage proactively now to avoid even greater loss of confidence in government. If governments go soft on efforts to combat the climate crisis now or delay action, they will not meet voters’ demand for an effective and just transition. Moreover, hesitation and delay would boost populist and far-right actors’ efforts to sow doubt about the causes of climate change and whether policies will be effective.
Topic:
Climate Change, Elections, Populism, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe

9. The Rise of the Authoritarian Populist Right: The Illiberal Defenders of Freedom?

Author:
Péter Krekó
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
In recent years, political forces promoting exclusionary, nationalist, and illiberal ideologies are undeniably on the rise—not only in authoritarian regimes, but across the democratic world as well. Symbols once believed to be buried in the past, such as the Nazi or Roman salute, have resurfaced in mainstream political movements. For instance, in 2018, members of the far- right group Generation Identity were filmed performing the Roman salute in Austria, reminiscent of historical fascist movements.1 In 2024, members of the youth wing of Italian PM Giorgia Meloni’s governing party were caught on tape making Nazi salutes.2 Similarly, far-right activists and politicians in the United States have been seen engaging in or defending such gestures, thus normalizing them in contemporary politics.3 As recently as January 2025, prominent U.S. public figures—including Elon Musk and Steve Bannon— have used the salute, only to deny it afterward. But this game only adds to the gesture’s theatrical appeal, turning it into a secret expression of one’s “true” beliefs under supposed ideological oppression. This flashy shift in symbolism has occurred alongside the growing prevalence of overtly racist and exclusionary rhetoric. In countries such as Hungary and Italy, mainstream politicians have adopted narratives that frame migrants as existential threats to national identity, often using openly racist language previously thought to be taboo. Prior to this decade, mainstream far-right parties typically used softer, more “politically correct” ethno-nationalist language, blaming certain cultural patterns and traditions (e.g., the treatment of women among Muslims) instead of making explicit references to the color of skin.4 But many politicians no longer feel the need to mask their agenda behind subtle or restrained language. For example, in July 2022, Viktor Orbán, Prime Minister of Hungary, made his point clear when he declared, “We [Hungarians] are not a mixed race ... and we do not want to become a mixed race.”5 Meanwhile, in the American media, figures like journalist Tucker Carlson have promoted the “Great Replacement” conspiracy theory—a set of unsubstantiated claims that the “globalists” are deliberately replacing white Americans with immigrants and people of color to erode traditional American values and deprive “old America” of political power. This theory, previously confined to the fringes of white supremacist circles, became a cornerstone of the politics of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán as an official explanation for the demographic trend in Europe. Conspiracy theories now flourish at the highest levels of political decision-making, shaping policies on immigration, public health, and election integrity, among others, in Europe and the United States.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Populism, Right-Wing Politics, and Illiberalism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

10. Informe sobre la democracia en España 2024

Author:
Lluís Orriols, Oriol Bartomeus, Sandra León, Miguel Artola Blanco, and Antonio M. Jaime-Castillo
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
La democracia española en 2024 se situó en una posición paradójica entre la fragmentación y el equilibrio. Por un lado, los principales indicadores internacionales de calidad democrática la incluyen entre las democracias plenas y consolidadas del mundo; sin embargo, esa fortaleza contrasta con un cierto descontento interno más difuso, donde la desconfianza ciudadana hacia algunas instituciones, así como el avance de los discursos populistas y polarizadores dominaron la esfera pública. España refleja así una tensión común a muchas democracias contemporáneas, y es la distancia entre los indicadores formales y la percepción subjetiva de los ciudadanos, o los expertos consultados. En 2024 algunos contextos amplificaron dicha distancia, entre ellos el procés en Cataluña y la ley de amnistía, pero también hubo una búsqueda de cierto equilibrio. De hecho, ha sido necesaria una negociación constante para llegar a acuerdos de gobierno que permitieran la gobernabilidad. La cuestión central es si este equilibrio puede sostenerse en el tiempo o si, por el contrario, la acumulación de tensiones erosionará la confianza en el sistema. En este informe, los autores señalan algunas alternativas para ayudar a mantener o incrementar el equilibro, alejándolo de la fragmentación. Las prioridades identificadas pasan por cambios en el poder judicial, reformas en política de vivienda o anticiparse a posibles efectos de las reformas de los modelos de financiación autonómica.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Violent Extremism, European Union, Democracy, Inequality, Economy, Populism, Political Science, Industry, Polarization, and Fragmentation
Political Geography:
Europe and Spain

11. Liberty, Affect, and The Rise of Populism

Author:
Colin Anthony MacNairn
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
In this essay, I reinterpret Hartley B. Alexander’s early 20th-century account of liberty and democracy in light of the 21st-century populist resurgence, integrating the economic analysis of Jonathan Hopkin and Mark Blyth. By combining Alexander’s concerns surrounding the ethical collapse of democratic citizenship with Hopkin and Blyth’s diagnosis of structural economic disenfranchisement, I construct a dual account of populism’s rise as the convergence of moral atrophy and institutional decay. From Trump’s America to Modi’s India, populism emerges as a liberty weaponised against itself. I argue that populism is a condition wherein the form of democracy is preserved, but its substance is debased, thereby reduced to spectacle, demagoguery, and institutional dysfunction. Drawing on specific examples and institutional analysis, I further argue for a reconstruction of liberty grounded in moral formation and institutional responsiveness, thus offering a normative pathway beyond the populist condition.
Topic:
Economics, Ethics, Populism, Liberty, and Political Philosophy
Political Geography:
India, South America, North America, and United States of America

12. Global Islamophobia and the Rise of Populism with Audrey Truschke and Ivan Kalmar (Episode 35)

Author:
Audrey Truschke and Ivan Kalmar
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:
Dr. Audrey Truschke and Professor Ivan Kalmar analyze the alarming global surge in Islamophobic violence and discriminatory policies, particularly in Eastern Europe and South Asia. Our guests explore how economic and political insecurities have fueled dangerous scapegoating of Muslim citizens and refugees, transforming vulnerable religious minorities into targets of state-sanctioned persecution. This thought-provoking episode examines the human cost of populist rhetoric and offers critical insights into one of today's most pressing human rights issues: the systematic marginalization of Muslim communities across national borders. Listen to the conversation on the intersection of religious identity, nationalism, and the global struggle for dignity and belonging. The conversation is based on their contributions to the book Global Islamophobia and the Rise of Populism published by Oxford University Press in 2024.
Topic:
Minorities, Refugees, Populism, Discrimination, and Islamophobia
Political Geography:
South Asia and Eastern Europe

13. The Impact of Trump’s Anti-Immigration Discourse on Asylum Applications in the Balkans (2017–2021)

Author:
Vasil Pavlov and Siddharth Kanojia
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
Immigration has become an increasingly contentious political and social issue in Europe over the past decade. The growing influx of asylum seekers has been driven by deteriorating security conditions, armed conflicts, and political and economic instability in various regions, alongside the comparatively higher living standards in Europe. As a global hegemon, the United States has indirectly shaped migration patterns in peripheral regions such as the Balkans. This paper examines how President Donald Trump’s anti-immigration discourse during his first term (2017–2021) coincided with an approximately 45% decrease in asylum applications from the Balkans. Drawing on official statistics and employing Critical Discourse Analysis, the study explores how US rhetoric influenced regional policy emulation. The findings underscore the transnational impact of populist discourse and call for a critical reassessment of migration governance in key transit regions.
Topic:
Migration, Immigration, Populism, Donald Trump, Asylum, and Securitization
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Balkans

14. Instruments of Hybrid Warfare: Dissemination of Pro-Russian Propaganda Narratives Through Populist Politicians in the Slovak Republic

Author:
Martin Solik, Dalibor Velký, and Jan Graf
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
This article uses thematic discursive analysis to examine selected pro-Kremlin populist politicians in Slovakia. The enforcement of one-sided propagandist thoughts and opinions, primarily through radical anti-system politicians and 'alternative' media outlets freely available on the internet, has become one of the most important aspects of hybrid warfare in today's world. This paper aims to identify the specific goals of Russian propaganda and clarify how populist politicians spread propaganda on social media through language resources. The results of the analysis are presented at the end of the paper, along with the word resources used by these politicians. The results prove that pro-Kremlin populist politicians use word and language manipulation to help spread unilaterally focused and distorted information in Slovakia. This article aims to build on and complement existing research on pro-Kremlin anti-system politicians and their role in Russia's hybrid warfare in Europe.
Topic:
Politics, Media, Populism, Propaganda, and Hybrid Warfare
Political Geography:
Russia, Eastern Europe, and Slovakia

15. The Vicious Circle of Xenophobia: Immigration and Right-Wing Populism

Author:
Frédéric Docquier and Hillel Rapoport
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
We investigate the bidirectional relationship between immigration and right-wing populism, which we characterize as a self-reinforcing dynamic process where anti-immigrant rhetoric and populist policies lead to a deterioration in the average education and skill level of immigrants. The deterioration in the ratio of high-skill to low-skill immigrants in turn fuels populist support and anti-immigration attitudes, creating what we call “the vicious circle of xenophobia”. We review some historical and contemporary studies that are suggestive of such vicious circle. In particular, recent crosscountry evidence shows that low-skill immigration tends to exacerbate populism, while high-skill immigration tends to mitigate it. Conversely, populist policies and xenophobic attitudes have a strong repulsive effect on highly-skilled immigrants and result in adverse immigrant selection. We use the empirical results from those studies to inform a theoretical model of joint determination of immigrants’ skill-ratio and right-wing populism levels. The model displays multiple equilibria, with the inferior equilibrium – corresponding to our vicious circle – characterized by high levels of right-wing populism and a high proportion of low-skill workers among immigrants. In this framework, structural trends such as internet penetration, economic erosion of the middle class, demographic pressure from poor countries as well as adverse cyclical shocks make the good, efficient equilibrium less likely and the inferior equilibrium of explosive populism and deteriorated immigrants’ skill-ratio more likely.
Topic:
Immigration, Populism, Xenophobia, and Right-Wing Politics
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16. Global Public Opinion and the Growth of Right-Wing Populism

Author:
Richard Wike
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
The “super year” of elections in 2024 was unprecedented in voting history, with citizens in more than 60 countries going to the polls. While it was generally a difficult year for incumbents, it was a strong one for challengers, including several from the populist right. Leveraging economic frustrations, divisive cultural issues, and anger at a political class perceived to be out of touch with ordinary citizens, right-wing populist leaders and parties made gains at the ballot box in several nations, building on the growing success they have seen in recent years.1 One of the most high-profile results in 2024 was Republican Donald Trump’s defeat of Democrat Kamala Harris in the United States presidential election, which returned the leader of the populist “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) movement to the White House after four years of Demo- cratic control. Right-wing populists also gained ground in European parlia- mentary elections. Austria’s Freedom Party, for example, had its best election result ever. The Alternative for Germany Party became the first far-right political party to win a state election in the country since World War II. And even though the cordon sanitaire—a bargain among political parties to keep the far right out of governing coalitions—ultimately kept Marine Le Pen’s National Rally out of power in France, the party nonetheless increased the number of seats it holds in the National Assembly. Parties on the right did well outside Europe and the United States too. For example, El Salvador’s incumbent President Nayib Bukele won reelection with over 80 percent of the vote, buoyed by strong support for his crackdown on criminal gangs. In Indonesia, Prabowo Subianto won the presidential election amid public concerns about his human rights record. And—though forced to form a coalition government for the first time—Indian Prime Min- ister Narendra Modi won a third consecutive victory, and his Bharatiya Janata Party, which captured 240 of 543 seats in the Lok Sabha, remains a dominant force in the country’s politics.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Elections, Populism, and Right-Wing Politics
Political Geography:
India, Global Focus, and United States of America

17. Decoding India’s 2024 National Elections

Author:
Niranjan Sahoo
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
India’s 2024 national election is billed to be the biggest election in history. The mammoth exercise which involves the participation of 986 million voters and more than 600 political parties will last 44 days before the results are announced on June 4. It is also billed to be the most expensive elections in the world (Pradhan 2024), overtaking the United States elections. The noteworthy fact about this mega exercise is that nearly the entire process will be conducted through Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs). A staggering 5.5 million EVMs will be used to conduct this mammoth exercise spanning over two months (Business Standard 2024-03-16). Further, the 2024 national elections will determine who gets to occupy the Lok Sabha or Lower House of the Parliament. The party or a coalition of parties that gets a majority in the LoK Sabha will get to nominate its Prime Minister and run the government for next five years.
Topic:
Elections, Populism, Domestic Politics, Welfare, Misinformation, and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

18. Paying Off Populism: How Regional Policies Affect Voting Behavior

Author:
Robert Gold and Jakob Lehr
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
This paper shows that regional policies can decrease populist support. We focus on the “development objective” (Objective-1) of the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), meant to support lagging-behind regions. For causal inference, we exploit three sources of quasi-exogenous variation in a Regression-Discontinuity-Design (RDD), a Difference-in- Differences framework (DiD), and with matching techniques. Using NUTS3-level panel data on the outcomes of elections to the EU parliament, observed over the period 1999-2019, we consistently find that Objective-1 transfers reduces the vote share of right-fringe parties by about 2.5 pp. Left-fringe party support is not affected. Complementary analyses of individual-level survey data from the Eurobarometer show that the European Regional Policy increases trust in democratic institutions and decreases discontent with the EU.
Topic:
Political Economy, European Union, Populism, Regional Integration, Currency, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

19. Paying Off Populism: EU-Regionalpolitik verringert Unterstützung populistischer Parteien

Author:
Robert Gold and Jakob Lehr
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
How to break the populist wave? With the elections to the European Parliament ahead, and the Presidential Elections in the US looming, this question bothers policymakers in many Western democracies. Our study shows that regional policies effectively decrease populist support. Specifically, EU Regional Policy investing into the development of lagging-behind regions decreases the vote share obtained by right-fringe populist parties by 15–20 percent. Moreover, regional policy investments increase trust in democratic institutions, and decreases discontent with the EU.
Topic:
Political Economy, European Union, Populism, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Europe

20. Between Tradition and Transformation: The Impact of Illiberal Populism on Georgia’s Democratic Aspirations

Author:
Giorgi Iakobishvili
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
The article examines the role of Georgian far-right illiberal populist groups in Georgian politics and their influence on Georgia’s foreign policy and the ongoing democratization process, emphasizing Euroscepticism, liberal institutional development, and the pro-Russian narrative. Using qualitative research methodology, we analyzed the programs, manifestos, and public speeches of well-known groups active in Georgian politics, such as People's Power, Georgian March, Georgian Idea, Unity, Essence, Hope (ERI), and Alliance of Patriots of Georgia. Analysis of the mentioned material, as well as various scientific studies, shows that the discourse of these groups is dominated by xenophobic, nationalist, populist, and racist rhetoric, which represents a significant challenge to Georgia’s European integration path and in the direction of democratization of its governance system. In the long term, we concluded that the existence and development of these illiberal populist actors threaten Georgia’s aspirations for European integration and democratic development. This study contributes to a broader discourse about populism and illiberal views in the Georgian reality, focusing on the influence of these ideologies on the formation of the country’s foreign policy and orientation.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Democracy, Populism, Domestic Politics, Illiberalism, and Euroskepticism
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, Caucasus, and Georgia