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2901. Serbia's Embattled Opposition

Publication Date:
05-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The recent crackdown by the Belgrade regime on Serbia's independent media and political activists suggests that Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic is more vulnerable than it would appear. Since the Kosovo war ended, Milosevic has proven unable to expand his support base and must struggle with diminishing resources to keep restive constituencies intact. Despite its recognised weakness, the Serbian opposition is capable under certain conditions of removing Milosevic from power and offering better governance. The message of numerous public opinion polls over the past eight moths is that there is an anti-Milosvic majority in Serbia, but that the opposition must work together in coalitions to exploit it.
Topic:
Democratization, Non-Governmental Organization, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, and Serbia

2902. Montenegro's Local Elections: Testing the National Temperature (Background Briefing)

Publication Date:
05-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Local elections are to be held in Podgorica and Herceg-Novi, two of Montenegro's 21 municipalities, on 11 June 2000. Their significance is wider than the simple question of who governs the two local authorities, for these will be the first elections in Montenegro since the victory of the "For a Better Life" coalition (DZB) under president Milo Djukanovic in general elections in May 1998. For this reason the results will be widely interpreted as a comment on the performance of Djukanovic so far, and a barometer of the political mood in the republic as a whole.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Montenegro

2903. Montenegro's Socialist People's Party: A Loyal Opposition?

Publication Date:
04-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The assertion of the primacy of Serbian rights over all other peoples by Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic has driven nearly every nationality of the former Yugoslavia toward the Republic's exits. Even Montenegro, once Serbia's closest political and military ally, has not been immune from the turmoil that Slobodan Milosevic has created and has opted to distance itself from Belgrade's controlling influence.
Topic:
International Relations, Non-Governmental Organization, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, Serbia, and Montenegro

2904. Bosnia's Municipal Elections 2000: Winners and Losers

Publication Date:
04-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The international community can draw a degree of comfort from the results of Bosnia's 8 April 2000 municipal elections. Overall, the voting was free of violence and more freeand fair than any previous election held in Bosnia. Nationalism may not be on the run yet—witness the strength of indicted Bosnian Serb war criminal Radovan Karadzic's Serbian Democratic Party (SDS)—but moderate leaders are making inroads and increasing numbers of voters seem to be paying attention to their messages.
Topic:
Government, Nationalism, and Politics
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Eastern Europe, and Serbia

2905. Reunifying Mostar: Opportunities for Progress

Publication Date:
04-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Reunification of Mostar is key to the reintegration of separatist Herzegovinian Bosnian Croats into Bosnia. After years of fruitless post-Dayton efforts to wean the Bosnian Croats from Zagreb and reorient them toward a constructive role in Bosnia, the international community at long last has the capability to achieve this goal. The success of the democratic forces in Croatia in the January-February elections there has brought reliable partners to power with whom the international community can work in Bosnia. Policy initiatives in Herzegovina will not require new resources and, if achieved, can lead to a reduction in the international profile in Bosnia. Failure to act on these opportunities will cripple the Bosnian peace effort and weaken the new government in Croatia. These issues present serious policy challenges.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, Eastern Europe, and Croatia

2906. Montenegro: In the Shadow of the Volcano

Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Montenegro has been a crisis-in-waiting for two years now, with Belgrade opposing efforts by a reform-minded government under President Milo Djukanovic to distance itself ever further from its federal partner Serbia. Federal President Slobodan Milosevic has steadily escalated the pressure against Djukanovic, probing the extent of NATO support for Montenegro and pushing the Montenegrins toward a misstep that might undermine their international backing. Each of the three possible policy-paths facing the Montenegro government, however, is unappealing in its own way:Going ahead with a referendum on independence for Montenegro would risk radicalising a population still peacefully divided over the issue, and would offer maximum provocation to Belgrade, which retains a powerful military presence in Montenegro. Maintaining the status quo may offer a better chance of avoiding open confrontation with Belgrade, but it leaves Montenegro in a limbo. Its friends are not offering all the help they could, on the grounds that it is not a sovereign state; but prospects for selfgenerated income through inward investment or revival of the tourist industry are still hostage to international risk perceptions. Achieving rapprochement with the Serbian government would be possible if Milosevic went. But Montenegro cannot afford to leave its future in the unsure hands of the present Serbian opposition. And as the atmosphere in Serbia steadily worsens, political and public opinion in Montenegro appears to grow ever less willing to compromise.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, NATO, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Serbia, and Montenegro

2907. What Happened to the KLA?

Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The end of the war over Kosovo brought the transformation of the guerrilla army that started it. The Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA - or UÇK in the Albanian acronym) has been formally demilitarised, but in various manifestations it remains a powerful and active element in almost every area of Kosovo life. Some welcome its continued influence; others fear it; many are concerned about it.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Albania

2908. Albania: State of the Nation

Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
During the spring of 1999, more than 450,000 Kosovo Albanian refugees flooded into Albania, many of them forcibly deported by Serb forces in Kosovo. Despite Albania's acute poverty, many Albanians opened their homes to provide shelter to the incoming refugees and the government spared no effort, organising humanitarian relief and putting the entire country at the disposal of NATO. As a result, in the eyes of its people, Albania has secured its position as the spiritual motherland of all ethnic Albanians, and as such expects to play a prominent role in future pan-Albanian aspirations.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Albania

2909. Denied Justice: Individuals Lost in a Legal Maze

Publication Date:
02-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Thousands of people try to find their way daily through an immensely complicated labyrinth established by the three separate and very often conflicting legal systems in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). Evidence presented in this report, the third in the ICG legal project series, proves that unexplained time delays, dubious application of law and blatant ethnic discrimination contribute greatly to the ad hoc nature of Bosnian justice.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

2910. Albanians in Serbian Prisons: Kosovo's Unfinished Business

Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
With the immense challenges facing the international community in its effort to secure and rebuild Kosovo, one critical outstanding matter that has received very little attention is the ongoing detention in Serbian prisons of several thousand Kosovar Albanians. Arrested by Serbian forces in the course of the Kosovo conflict, these prisoners were hastily transferred to Serbian jails and penitentiaries in the wake of the Kumanovo military-technical agreement, which ended the NATO air campaign and established a timetable for the withdrawal from Kosovo of all Serb forces.
Topic:
International Relations, Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, and Albania

2911. Challenges to Democracy in the Americas

Author:
Hugo Chávez, Manuel Antonio Garretón M., Porfirio Muñoz Ledo, Kenneth H. Jr. MacKay, Philip Oxhorn, Kenneth Roberts, Matthew Soberg Shugart, Jorge Vargas Cullel, Laurence Whitehead, and Adolfo E. Nanclares
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
Recent events in Latin American and the Carribean, including the election of a former coup leader in Venezuela, the third-term candidacy of Peru President Alberto Fujimori, a coup in Ecuador, and the failed constitutional reform in Guatemala and subsequent election of a party led by retired military officials, have led to serious concerns about the direction of democracy in the region. Americas Program's Council of Presidents and Prime Ministers of the Americas selected the conference topic as an expression of their concern. Held in October 2000 at The Carter Center, the conference addressed the resurgence of populist leaders, the decline of political parties, the need for greater public security, and the many ways the military continues to intervene in Latin American politics.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Human Rights, Migration, and Politics
Political Geography:
America and Latin America

2912. The Strategic Implications of Terrorism

Author:
Paul Wilkinson
Publication Date:
06-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, St. Andrews University, Scotland
Abstract:
Terrorism is a special form of political violence. It is not a philosophy or a political movement. Terrorism is a weapon or method which has been used throughout history by both states and sub-state organisations for a whole variety of political causes or purposes.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Politics, and Terrorism

2913. Coexistence, Consensus, Competition, Conflict: Interservice Contestation

Author:
Varun Sahni
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
This paper explores one of the lesser-researched aspects of Latin American military politics, namely, relations among the three military services - army, navy and air force. This is done through a study of the Argentine Navy and its relations with the Army and Air Force of that country. The analysis proceeds in three stages. First, the article classifies issue-areas on the basis of four variables: resource and/or prestige implications, symbolic and/or functional importance, zero-sum contestation, and iterative contestations. Second, the article suggests a four-fold typology of inter-service contestation - coexistence, consensus, competition, and conflict - that is closely linked to the nature of the issue-area. Finally, the validity of the typology is tested through the study of four cases: naval management of the National Atomic Energy Commission (CNEA); naval domination of national policy on Patagonia, Tierra del Fuego, the South Atlantic and Beagle Channel islands and Antarctica; the annual inter-service competition over the military budget; and the long-standing rivalry between the Nave and Air Force over military aviation. The four cases studied demonstrate that the taxonomy proposed in this article more than adequately classifies and explains the patterns of inter-service contestation in Argentina, thereby raising questions about its applicability to other military-dominated polities.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, and Politics
Political Geography:
Argentina, South America, and Latin America

2914. Chinese Nationalism and Its International Orientations

Author:
Suisheng Zhao
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Political Science Quarterly
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
SUISHENG ZHAO explores whether or not Chinese nationalism is a source of international aggression by examining its different perspectives, orientations, and characteristics. He finds that Chinese nationalism has been a situational matter, more reactive than proactive in international affairs.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Nationalism, Politics, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
China and Asia