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2751. The Limits of Conditionality: Nuclear Reactor Safety in Central and Eastern Europe, 1991 - 2001

Author:
John Van Oudenaren
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
Conditionality has become an increasingly prominent feature of international politics in recent years.1 Once mainly associated with the macroeconomic stabilization programs of the IMF, since the collapse of communism it has been used by the EU, NATO, the OECD, and the Council of Europe to promote a variety of political, economic, and social objectives – everything from abolishing the death penalty to privatizing national monopolies. With increased use has come increased controversy. Critics of conditionality argue that it is often applied in ways that ride roughshod over national sovereignty, ignore local circumstances, and impose economic hardship. Others note the frequent inability of recipients of conditional aid to fulfill commitments to international donors. Even when measured by its own narrow objectives, they argue, conditionality often fails.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

2752. MAP Reading: NATO's and Russia's Pathways to European Military Integration

Author:
Stephen Blank
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
As part of NATO's and Europe's continuing and open-ended processes of enlargement and military-political integration, in 1999, NATO presented aspiring members with a Membership Action Plan (MAP) to guide them in their activities preparing their governments and armed forces for membership in NATO. The MAP, if fulfilled according to NATO's requirements and approbation, allegedly would make the aspiring members' military forces more nearly congruent or interoperable with NATO forces. With this document, NATO has arguably created its own version of the EU's acquis communautaire “against which the Alliance can assess the technical preparations and capacities of the nine MAP partners and judge their readiness for membership.”
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

2753. The Israel Swing Factor: How the American Jewish Vote Influences U.S. Elections

Author:
Jeffrey S. Helmreich
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
There are two clashing myths on the political power of American Jewry. One claims that the community is too small to affect national elections; Jews make up less than 3 percent of the U.S. population. A contrasting view holds that U.S. Jews play a disproportionately large role in national politics thanks to their campaign donations and media influence.
Topic:
Security, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, America, and Middle East

2754. Political Priorities and Economic Interests in Russian-Latvian Relations

Author:
Andris Spruds
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The paper focuses on interaction of political and economic aspects in Russian-Latvian relations. During the most of the 1990´s, the relationship was dominated by the «conflict manifestation, » which could be witnessed during the protracted Russian troop withdrawal and mutually irreconcilable positioning over NATO expansion and status of Russian-speaking population. However, in the context of EU enlargement and «economisation» of Russian foreign policy, economic factors may play an increasingly important role in Russian-Latvian relations. It is possible to discover a complex web of links and economic interdependence between economic actors in both Russia and Latvia. This especially refers to transit as Latvian ports remain among the major routes of Russian exports, primarily oil, to Western Europe. Yet, certain interests of particular economic groups in Russia as well as economic and political priorities of Russian government generally, in the region and domestically will have influence, not necessarily favourable, on further development of this economic interdependence.
Topic:
NATO and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, and Latvia

2755. Chile/Argentina — Economic Fallout

Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
This week's piece examines the impact of Argentina's economic difficulties on Chilean firms. As well as its macroeconomic impact in Chile, reflected principally in currency volatility and a reduction of capital inflows, the Argentine crisis is affecting Chilean firms with investments in or exports to Argentina. It will also have an impact on Chile's tourist industry. Following the exit of many Chilean firms from Argentina over the last two years, those that remain are either in export sectors or have a long-term strategy under which they appear willing to ride out the present crisis. However, many will sustain short-term losses and some smaller investors, particularly in consumer sectors, may be forced out of the market.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:
Argentina, South America, and Chile

2756. APEC — Shanghai Accord

Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Pacific Rim leaders on October 21 signed an accord to re-invigorate progress towards free trade and investment in the region. The Shanghai Accord marks the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum's effort to stimulate a flagging liberalisation agenda and to show leadership in promoting regional recovery. However, the accord may exacerbate the risk of further fracturing the diverse grouping. It will be difficult for APEC to move forward on trade liberalisation given that the organisation's own formulation of consensual, unbound liberalisation has proved unsuccessful in periods of economic crisis. The pathfinder initiative may re-energise the process but at the risk of APEC's fragmentation and without addressing the problems of some members' hesitation and lack of political will for domestic structural reform.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:
Shanghai and Asia

2757. Mercosur/European Union — Tariff Talks

Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The outlook for trade ties between the EU and Mercosur. EU-Mercosur trade negotiations earlier this month gave a vigorous push to commercial negotiations between the two regions. The EU presented a detailed proposal for liberalising EU-Mercosur trade during the next ten years. Trade talks between the EU and Mercosur have now reached a more advanced stage than the talks on the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA).
Topic:
Economics and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

2758. India/Pakistan — Peace Pipe

Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
India and Iran have proposed the construction of a natural gas pipeline connection. While the project would be a major engineering achievement, the principal challenge will be gaining Islamabad's consent for it to traverse Pakistani territory. Pakistan's parlous relations with Tehran and Delhi, the latter little improved by last weekend's summit, will make this difficult.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, and Politics
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, India, and Asia

2759. United States — Downturn Dilemmas

Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Despite the continuing fragility of the economy, prompt policy action and the resilience of the US consumer are likely to prevent a full-blown recession, thereby shaping the probable path of the US economic downturn. Therefore, the risk of negative balance sheets and potential inflationary problems could arise from too rapid a recovery.
Topic:
Economics and Politics
Political Geography:
United States

2760. European Union: Belgian Presidency

Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The rotating EU presidency this week passed from the Swedish to the Belgian government. The Belgian presidency faces a considerable test of nerve as it attempts to square its constitutional ambitions for further political integration with the increasing unpredictability of European public opinion. The new public mood of caution towards European integration has resulted in a notable ambivalence on the part of Verhofstadt. While stressing the importance of a completely open debate, Verhofstadt is also using the more closed approach of close consultation between governments and their representatives in preparing keynote proposals for the Laeken European Council, which, in reality, is the only way of reaching solutions.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

2761. Argentina — Federal Stand-Off

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Opposition Peronist party governors and trade unions this week broke off institutional dialogue with the federal government over recent economic measures and pending debts. The fourteen governors in question, their minds on mid-term legislative elections, believe that the political cost of supporting the government will be greater than the cost of being seen to scupper its initiatives, and that opposition constitutes a more effective means of pressing their demands. Their decision puts the prospects for Argentina's economic recovery at risk. The Peronist governors' decision to distance themselves from the government both reflects and compounds the weakness of the federal administration. While their new approach to force concessions from the government could ease social problems in the short term, there is a danger that it will do so at the expense of economic recovery and political stability in the longer term.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:
South America

2762. Iran — Khatami Landslide

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
President Mohammed Khatami was re-elected on June 8 by a huge margin. Khatami's supporters are already talking about a renewed campaign for reform under a reorganised cabinet and a reinvigorated Majlis. However, the obstacles to such a programme remain formidable. Khatami is likely to press a little more strongly for reform, especially in the economic field. However, doubts remains that he or his parliamentary colleagues have the means to use the renewed mandate provided by the election to press for radical change. Any change is therefore likely to modest and incremental, though, in the Iranian context, significant.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

2763. Nepal — Royal Murders

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The new King of Nepal, Gyanendra Shah, promised an inquiry into the massacre that killed almost the entire royal family on June 1. Given the former king's legacy as adored head of state and symbol of stability, his violent death has created extreme political uncertainty. It has occurred at a time of general political unrest in the form of strikes and demonstrations in the towns and an increasingly violent Maoist insurrection in the countryside. In the short term, violent demonstrations over the unsatisfactory nature of official explanations of how the royal family died will continue. They may do so even after the findings of the independent inquiry into the deaths are announced. A return to calm depends largely on King Gyanendra's ability to govern in the same manner as his murdered brother.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
South Asia and Nepal

2764. European Union — Takeover Tensions

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The proposed takeover bids directive may be lost unless the differences between the European Parliament (EP) and the Council of Ministers are resolved by June 6. The ongoing negotiations between the Council and the EP in the conciliation committee may be made more difficult by Germany's recent decision to renege on the Council common position on the directive. The move was received with incomprehension in other EU member states. Germany so far stands alone in its attempt to change the directive. Nevertheless, its decision could give MEPs enough ammunition to avoid a compromise in the conciliation committee, and hence to allow the directive to fail. More importantly, Germany's decision also draws attention to the various level-playing field issues still to be addressed in the area of corporate control through greater harmonisation of company law.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

2765. Italy — Berlusconi Victory

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The outcome of last Sunday's general election is now clear. Although the centre-right has won substantial majorities in both houses of parliament, both the Alleanza Nazionale and the Northern League suffered setbacks. The League failed to pass the threshold needed to qualify for a share of the quarter of seats in the Chamber of Deputies allocated by proportional representation. For the time being, Forza Italia, and therefore Berlusconi, who dominates the party, is in firm control of the centre-right coalition. If Berlusconi can retain his authority over the coalition for the next five years, it could assist in stabilising a still highly-fractured and potentially unstable party system.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

2766. Afghanistan — Offensive Spring

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
UN High Commissioner for Refugees Ruud Lubbers yesterday began a visit to western Afghanistan to assess the country's deepening humanitarian crisis. Extreme drought and an intensification of the country's chronic war following a winter lull in fighting are likely to exacerbate famine and displacement of population. However, despite the emergence of a disaster which the international community will find difficult to ignore, UN sanctions against the Taliban, which controls 90% of the country, have done nothing either to curtail the movement's depredations against the population under its control or dampen its enthusiasm for a spring offensive. Peace for Afghanistan remains unrealistic as it enters its ninth year of civil war. Indeed, in the short term the total collapse of the country's agricultural system is likely to produce an influx of new recruits for this cycle of violence. However, evidence of a growing fractiousness within the Taliban could result in an emergence of a more moderate faction amenable both to dialogue with the international community and an accommodation with opposition forces.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Migration, Politics, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Asia

2767. Japan — LDP Prognosis

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will elect a new president on April 24. Given that the LDP is the largest party in parliament, its president will also become the country's prime minister. While the media and the public are demanding genuine leadership from the government, the LDP's structure militates strongly against forthright policy-making.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:
Japan and East Asia

2768. US/China— Spyplane Accord

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
China said yesterday it would release the crew of the US EP-3 surveillance aircraft that was forced to land in Hainan Island on April 8, following a mid-air collision with a Chinese fighter. The Bush administration will welcome resolution of the dispute, especially as opinion polls released yesterday showed that a majority of US citizens regarded the crew as 'hostages'. Had the 24 crew members not been released before the Easter holiday, the crisis would have become far more significant for the White House, and inflamed anti-China sentiment in Congress. In the short term, resolution of the crisis will result in a scaling down of the criticism of some conservatives that the White House has been unduly accommodating towards China. However, in the longer-term, the episode will strengthen the conservative 'anti-China' lobby in Washington, which could hamper Bush's future attempts to improve relations with Beijing.
Topic:
International Relations and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, China, Washington, and Beijing

2769. India — Arms Scandal

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
On March 15, Defence Minister George Fernandes resigned. Fernandes' resignation follows last week's revelations about cash-for-influence exchanges with journalists posing as arms dealers. Although the Union coalition government is likely to survive the affair, its prestige has been severely damaged. The most serious potential of the Tehelka scandal is the government's loss of the moral authority to forge ahead with its economic reform programme. Opponents of liberalisation, both on the right and the left, are attempting to draw political capital from the affair.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

2770. Indonesia — Kalimantan Consequences

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
President Aburrahman Wahid yesterday visited Central Kalimantan, the scene of violent clashes between local Dayaks and Madurese settlers. The crisis has its origins in the ill-conceived transmigration policies of the Suharto era. Despite its localised and specific nature, there is a significant risk that it will embolden other outer-island communities to move more decisively against non-indigenous sections of local populations. This would place further strains on the thinly-stretched security forces. With Wahid's authority already weakened, the crisis in Central Kalimantan will strengthen the position of hard-line elements in the military who are opposed to the president. Nonetheless, Megawati's ability to gain political capital will be limited by the fact that she herself has a leading role in formulating policy towards the regions.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Government, Migration, and Politics
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

2771. Moldova — Communist Government

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The Party of Moldovan Communists (PCM) has won full control over parliament following the February 25 general election. The decisive result has broken the country's political stalemate and allows the PCM to select the president, premier and parliamentary speaker without needing to form a coalition in the chamber. However, uncertainties over the PCM's economic policy and political priorities persist. While the PCM has a monopoly on power, this could be undermined by continued economic decline, internal party splits and a nationalist backlash against its pro-Russian orientation. The PCM will seek allies in domestic politics, and will seek to find the external partner, whether Russia or the IFIs, best able to assist in the long-term revival of the economy.
Topic:
Communism, Government, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:
Moldova and Eastern Europe

2772. Indonesia — Wahid Reprieve

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The past month has seen an escalation of elite political conflict in Jakarta, with enemies of President Abdurrahman Wahid engineering an investigation into allegations that he was involved in two financial corruption scandals. This investigation culminated in the endorsement by a majority of members of the House of Representatives on February 1 of a 'memorandum' concluding that the president was indeed implicated in corruption and demanding that he account for his actions. Many opposition legislators also called for the convening of a special session of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), the 700-member supra-parliamentary body which elected Wahid as president in October 1999 and has sole power to remove him.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

2773. United States — Bush Administration

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
A combination of good fortune and some skilful planning have allowed the Bush administration to make a successful start in office. These factors will probably allow the president to pursue much of his agenda effectively this year. However, difficulties will be encountered once Washington politics becomes preoccupied by the 2002 congressional elections.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
United States and Washington

2774. Israel — Sharon Victory

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Likud leader Ariel Sharon's resounding victory in last Tuesday's election for prime minister has produced a chaotic political situation. The Knesset is likely to remain as dysfunctional as it was before the election campaign and Sharon will face immense difficulties in his attempts to form a government and pass the budget. Even should he succeed, it is possible that the government will fall before the next scheduled election, and that he will face a credible challenge from former prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

2775. Ukraine — Kuchma Cornered

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Opposition deputies, led by former justice minister Serhiy Holovatiy, have called on President Leonid Kuchma to resign over his alleged involvement in the murder of a journalist. The scandal has provoked popular protests and divided Kuchma's non-left majority in parliament, although the work of the reformist government has not been adversely affected. The case has highlighted the absence of the rule of law and the executive's control over supposedly independent state organs. Kuchma's fate depends on his ability to retain the support of oligarchic interests, some of which have already defected. His departure would enable the popular Yushchenko to campaign for the presidency while enjoying the benefits of incumbency, albeit in a temporary capacity.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Ukraine and Eastern Europe

2776. United Kingdom — Mandelson Departure

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, Peter Mandelson, resigned in acrimonious circumstances last week. Mandelson was a key figure in the reconstruction of the Labour Party in the 1990s and the most prominent partisan of early euro entry in the UK cabinet. While Mandelson's departure will be felt within the Labour Party and comes at a critical time in the Northern Ireland peace process, the most substantial impact is likely to be on the internal debate within the cabinet over euro-area entry, with the consequence of a diminishing likelihood of an early referendum on the issue.
Topic:
Government, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and North Ireland

2777. Philippines — Macapagal-Arroyo Elevation

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Newly inaugurated President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo installed herself in Manila's Malacanang presidential palace on January 22. Macapagal-Arroyo's elevation from vice-president to president represents the culmination of a long campaign by opposition politicians and civic figures to unseat Joseph Estrada from the presidency. While Macapagal-Arroyo's administrative style is likely to differ markedly from her predecessor, her accession also represents the return to political prominence of elite groups closely associated with the presidencies of Corazon Aquino and Fidel Ramos. The ouster of Estrada significantly diminishes the political and economic uncertainty and instability which has plagued the country for several months. However, as the euphoria of 'people power' fades, factional politics within the new administration, and the regrouping of pro-Estrada forces in a new opposition, are likely to present Macapagal-Arroyo with significant challenges.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Philippines and Southeast Asia

2778. Middle East — Arafat Manoeuvres

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Senior Palestinian officials this week rejected US President Bill Clinton's peace proposals. All the Palestinian factions have now rejected the proposals designed to end the conflict with Israel. This is a sign of the overwhelming domestic pressure Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat is under. However, his position remains one of conditional acceptance as he awaits further US interpretations and clarifications. Arafat's conditional acceptance of the US proposals is an attempt to improve his diplomatic position. He hopes to make use of the enhanced Arab engagement in the Palestinian-Israeli peace process to improve on the terms of a future peace agreement. This will be essential if he is to win domestic approval of any deal.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

2779. CIAO: Russia: Weimar Analogy

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Striking parallels exist between post-Soviet Russia and Weimar Germany (1918-33) with regard to their international position, socio-economic conditions, sense of defeat and humiliation, and political situation. The analogy implies that a fascist regime is likely to come to power in Russia. However, the underlying causes of economic distress, the structure of the political system, and the cultural context in post-Soviet Russia and Weimar Germany also differ. Thus, contemporary Russia has weak fascist movements. The regime that emerges will probably be authoritarian and nationalist in character, and may to some extent exhibit fascist tendencies, but is very unlikely to be fully fascist in the classical sense.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia and Germany

2780. Revisiting the 12 Myths of Central Asia

Author:
Martha Brill Olcott
Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
NEARLY TEN YEARS HAVE PASSED since the countries of Central Asia received their independence. This impending anniversary is a good opportunity to look at how these states are managing the state-building process, and in particular what symbolic or ideological defenses they are offering for their actions. States need little protection from their successes but are always seeking ways to explain away their various failures. This paper looks at the “myths” that the leaders of the five Central Asian states are using to explain away the very disappointing results in both economic and especially political reforms and shows how U.S. policy makers have bought into some of these myths as well.
Topic:
Security, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Central Asia, and Asia

2781. Going Too Far: Bush's Pledge to Defend Taiwan

Author:
Ted Galen Carpenter
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
When he pledged to do whatever was necessary—even use U.S. military forces—to help Taiwan defend itself, President George W. Bush seemingly replaced Washington's long-standing policy of “strategic ambiguity” with a policy of strategic clarity. Although the president and his advisers subsequently retreated from his initial rhetorical stance, both China and Taiwan are likely to believe that Bush's original statement accurately reflects U.S. policy. That creates an extremely dangerous situation for the United States.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, China, Washington, Taiwan, and Asia

2782. The Rogue State Doctrine and National Missile Defense

Author:
Ivan Eland and Daniel Lee
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The Clinton administration underestimated the technological ability of several of the “rogue” states to develop long-range missiles and politicized its intelligence estimate. However, missile threats to the United States from any one of those states also depend on the intentions of that state and political developments that might affect those intentions.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States

2783. Instability in the Philippines: A Case Study for U.S. Disengagement

Author:
Doug Bandow
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
As the world becomes a less dangerous place for America, U.S. officials work more desperately to preserve America's pervasive international military presence. This policy is evident in the Philippines, with which Washington recently concluded a Visiting Forces Agreement.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, America, Washington, Asia, Philippines, and Southeast Asia

2784. Making the World Safer for Incumbents: The Consequences of McCain-Feingold-Cochran

Author:
John Samples
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Sens. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Russell Feingold (D-Wis.), joined by Sen. Thad Cochran (R-Miss.), have introduced legislation adding new regulations on campaign finance. Their proposed law bans “soft money” going to political parties, restricts advertising by for-profit corporations and labor unions, and greatly increases the ambit of federal election law.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
United States

2785. Instability in the Philippines: A Case Study for U.S. Disengagement

Author:
Doug Bandow
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
As the world becomes a less dangerous place for America, U.S. officials work more desperately to preserve America's pervasive international military presence. This policy is evident in the Philippines, with which Washington recently concluded a Visiting Forces Agreement.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Asia, Philippines, and Southeast Asia

2786. Minority Governments and Party Politics: The Political and Institutional Background to the "Danish Miracle"

Author:
Christoffer Green-Pedersen
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
The performance of the Danish economy in the 1990s has been successful to the extent that scholars are talking about a "Danish miracle". The importance of government policies to Denmark's economic success is taken as a point of departure in investigating why Danish governments have been able to govern the economy successfully in the 1990s. The paper argues that two factors have been important. First, the functioning of Danish parliamentarianism has been reshaped to strengthen the bargaining position of minority governments, which became the rule in Danish politics after the landslide election in 1973. Today, Danish minority governments can enter agreements with changing coalitions in the Danish parliament. The paper thus challenges the conventional wisdom about minority governments as weak in terms of governing capacity. Second, the changed socioeconomic strategy of the Social Democrats after returning to power in 1993 has been important because it has created a political consensus around a number of controversial reforms.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and Denmark

2787. At The Bottom Of The Bush-Mubarak Agenda? The Slow Pace Of Political Reform In Egypt

Author:
Amy W. Hawthorne
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Urgent regional matters — such as Iraq and the Arab–Israeli peace process — will dominate the agenda during Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak's visit to Washington this week, while Egypt's transition to a free-market economy and U.S.– Egypt trade ties will also receive attention. Egyptian domestic politics, however, will register little, aside from U.S. frustrations over anti-Semitism in the Egyptian press and concern about the status of Egypt's Coptic Christians. Although the regime appears quite stable, having secured a "victory" in its 1990s conflict with violent extremist groups, the state of political reform in Egypt, America's most important Arab ally, merits a closer look. That is because Egypt's long-term economic reform — in which Washington has invested so much — can succeed only if accompanied by meaningful political liberalization.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Human Rights, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, America, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Egypt

2788. Lebanon: Between Hong Kong And Hanoi

Author:
Yossi Baidatz
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In recent weeks, a simmering debate between the two major power centers in domestic Lebanese politics has spilled into public view. This debate pits newly installed Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, who represents those who want Lebanon to take advantage of Israel's withdrawal from southern Lebanon to focus on internal stability, economic reconstruction and securing foreign investment, against Hizballah leader Shaykh Hassan Nasrallah, who — with the support of Syria and Iran — champions maintaining Lebanon's role on the front line of the ongoing revolutionary resistance against Israel. This tension was described in the Lebanese newspaper an-Nahar as the choice between "Hanoi" (Nasrallah) and "Hong Kong" (Hariri). As with most Middle East crises, the development of this delicate and flammable dispute carries both risks and opportunities for Lebanon and other players on the Middle East scene.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, International Political Economy, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria, and Hong Kong

2789. Step Up U.S. Involvement In Turkish Economic Crisis

Author:
Alan Makovsky
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Turkey's economic near-meltdown last week — its second financial crisis in three months — was precipitated by political problems, not by narrowly economic issues. Until the political problems are addressed, the prospects for any new economic package will be questionable. With Turkish leaders and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) both seemingly floundering, Turkey likely would welcome suggestions on how to proceed, and the United States would do well to send a special high-level representative to Ankara for several days, as a source of informal advice and as a powerful symbol of U.S. support.
Topic:
Economics, Political Economy, Politics, and International Monetary Fund
Political Geography:
United States, Turkey, and Middle East

2790. Arab Gulf Politics And Powell's Visit

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As Secretary of State Colin Powell and former President George Bush celebrate the tenth anniversary of the liberation of Kuwait, for many Gulf Arabs the occasion marks a decade since Saddam Husayn's tanks put the lie to the promises of security that local leaders had made to their people. After popular trust in these Gulf leaders was tarnished by their need to rely on U.S. and allied forces to expel the Iraqis (despite the billions of dollars of oil wealth these rulers had spent on high-tech weaponry over the years), Gulf monarchs started to concede to their peoples a greater say in political life.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Government, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Kuwait

2791. Arab Reactions To Sharon's Victory In The Israeli Election

Author:
Mohamed Abdel-Dayem
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Arab reactions to Ariel Sharon's overwhelming victory in the recent Israeli national election were mixed. Some condemned him with a confrontational tone, while some suggested that the election made no difference — that is, that all Israeli leaders have basically the same stance. Several Arab leaders opted to take a "wait and see" approach. An optimistic minority of Arab commentators viewed Sharon's leadership in a positive light. The following is a representative sampling of Arab reactions to Sharon's victory.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

2792. Bahrain's National Charter And Political Reform In The Gulf

Author:
Amy Hawthorne
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Bahraini Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Issa al-Khalifa announced January 23 that a national referendum will be held February 14-15 on a National Charter, under which the lower house of a national assembly would be elected in 2004. Sheikh Hamad's reformist moves are the latest example of a trend in the Gulf kingdoms toward the establishment of representative institutions. However, Bahrain's proposed reforms are unlikely to be sufficiently far-reaching to address the political and economic discontent among Bahrain's Shia majority.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East and Bahrain

2793. Syria Under Bashar Al-Asad: The Domestic Scene And The 'Chinese Model' Of Reform

Author:
Alan Makovsky
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
This is the first of two PolicyWatch pieces about Syria under Bashar al-Asad. This article examines the domestic situation in Syria; the next article will look at Syrian foreign policy.On January 11, a petition signed by a thousand Syrian intellectuals appeared in the Lebanese press demanding — inter alia — freedom of expression, release of political prisoners, and an end to martial law in place since 1963. A similar such petition, published in September with ninety-nine signers, has evidently sparked a broader movement. And on January 20, the first-ever elections for many positions within Bashar al-Asad's Baath Party will be held.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Syria

2794. What Has Impeded Progress In U.S.-Iran Relations?

Author:
Ray Takeyh
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
After much experimentation, the Clinton administration settled on a policy of incremental normalization with Iran, whereby the United States and Iran would gradually improve their relations through mutual concessions and confidence-building measures. As the Bush team assesses policy options towards Iran, it is important to note the meager results of the Clinton team's creative efforts.
Topic:
International Relations and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, and Middle East

2795. Special Policy Forum Report: After Arafat? The Future of Palestinian Politics

Author:
Adam Garfinkle, Ehud Yaari, and Khaled Abu Toameh
Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On October 23, 2001, Ehud Ya'ari, Khaled Abu Toameh, and Adam Garfinkle addressed the Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum about their new study, After Arafat? The Future of Palestinian Politics. Ya'ari is the chief Middle East commentator for Israel's Channel 2, associate editor of the Jerusalem Report, and an associate of The Washington Institute. Abu Toameh is a senior writer for the Jerusalem Report and special correspondent for U.S. News and World Report. Garfinkle is editor of the National Interest and rapporteur of the Washington Institute's multi-year Project on Managing Leadership Change in the Middle East. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arabia

2796. Palestinian-Israeli Political Fatalities, September 28, 2000 - April 30, 2001

Author:
Liat Radcliffe
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The following report evaluates trends in Israeli-Palestinian violence during the past seven months using fatality statistics. This analysis covers the period from the outbreak of the "Al Aqsa Intifada" on September 28, 2000 through to April 30, 2001. The following statistics are based primarily on information provided by the Israeli human rights group B'tselem. This data has been cross-checked for accuracy with the Israeli government and U.S. and other Western media sources. For information about fatalities in earlier periods and about methodology, see Peacewatch #317: "Israeli-Palestinian Political Fatalities During The Barak Government: A Statistical Overvie" and Research Note #8: "Trends in Israeli-Palestinian Political Fatalities, 1987-1999."
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

2797. Special Policy Forum Report: Israel's Strategy for Peace and Security

Author:
Shimon Perez
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
"We are passing through a very demanding corridor of politics and exchanges, of an emotional crisis of blame and accusations where the voice of peace is minor and occasionally words may be as dangerous as bullets. We have to stop both the incitement and the fire. My real optimism is that I am convinced that sooner or later — and better sooner — all of us will recognize there is no alternative but to return to the table of negotiation, and part from the bloody battlefields that do not produce solutions."
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Politics
Political Geography:
Israel and Arabia

2798. The State Department's Annual Terrorism Report: Politics As Usual

Author:
David Schenker
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On April 30, the Department of State issued its comprehensive annual report Patterns of Global Terrorism, describing incidents and trends in international terrorism in the year 2000. This year's report covers the first three months of accelerated Palestinian-Israeli violence. It is also marks the first time the Bush administration State Department has been compelled to publicly comment on the nature of Lebanese Hizballah attacks against Israel in the post-withdrawal era.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

2799. Israel's New Sharon Government

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The formation of a national unity government in Israel today, by a vote 72 to 21, is a triumph for Ariel Sharon. First, he seized the initiative. After his landslide victory a few weeks ago, Sharon did not engage in classic Israeli bargaining tactics in dealing with his Labor Party rivals, but rather caught the defeated and divided party off balance by immediately offering them top cabinet positions in the desire to cement a unity government. Sharon was not intoxicated by the breadth of his victory, but rather followed through on his campaign commitment. Sharon realizes that it is also good politics. According to Gallup's poll taken last week, the Israeli public favors the establishment of such a government by an overwhelming 79 to 14 margin.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

2800. Inside Palestinian Politics: Preparing For Israel Under Sharon

Author:
David Schenker
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As Ariel Sharon prepares to take power following his landslide victory, significant changes are also underway in the Palestinian Authority (PA). In anticipation of Sharon's victory, the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) and leading PA personalities have been preparing a new political agenda to deal with the apparent end of "final status" negotiations and the new Israeli leadership. The most provocative event in recent days has been the issuance of a document — penned by a senior PLO official and longtime associate of PA Ra'is (Chairman) Yasir Arafat — which raises the specter that mainstream Palestinian politics are publicly reverting to the radicalism of pre-Oslo days.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine