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151. Sinjar: Challenges and Resilience Nine Years after Genocide

Author:
Izat Noah
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Nearly a decade later, many victims are still missing, and thousands now live in displacement camps in unstable, unsanitary conditions. This anniversary is an opportunity to reflect on the ongoing armed conflict in the Sinjar region and the profound influence on its inhabitants. It also serves as an opportunity to appreciate the resilience of the Yazidis, looking toward a future with new hope and new aspirations—a future where Yazidis can experience peace, stability, justice, and equitable opportunities to reconstruct their lives and their communities. Yazidi resilience is clearly evident in how they bore the burden of this genocide, how they have persevered in the face of ongoing persecution and genocide for centuries, and how they have been steadfast in maintaining their identity and heritage despite these adversities and the repeated campaigns to tarnish their image. Yet Yazidis still face significant challenges in Iraq today. Despite relative stability in the Sinjar region, there are concerns among the Yazidi population about the return of armed conflict between groups vying for influence. Even more troubling, the issue of expulsion and displacement remains unresolved despite the liberation of Sinjar from ISIS in 2015. Many Yazidis still live in displacement camps, where they are without their homes, their land, or their basic rights. These refugees have yet to be materially compensated for their losses.
Topic:
Genocide, Politics, Terrorism, and Yazidis
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Sinjar

152. How to Stop Iraqi Kurdistan’s “Bleeding”

Author:
Bilal Wahab
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In a recent letter to President Biden that was soon reinforced by three U.S. lawmakers, Prime Minister Masrour Barzani of Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government expressed his alarm over the region’s survival. Noting that the KRG is “bleeding economically and hemorrhaging politically,” he laid the blame on Baghdad’s “dishonorable campaign” against Erbil. Barzani has a point—federal authorities have indeed been undoing the KRG’s hard-won autonomy in the years since the Islamic State fell and the Kurds launched an unsuccessful independence bid. Most notably, Baghdad has recentralized policymaking in the capital and blocked Kurdish oil exports amid a decade-old dispute over energy management. Yet Barzani’s narrative does not tell the whole story. The United States has long supported Iraqi Kurdistan’s autonomy, security, and development, fostering greater stability and pro-American sentiment. At the same time, however, Washington has overlooked the KRG’s vulnerabilities—namely, the internal divisions, corruption, and democratic backsliding that have diminished Erbil’s reliability and brought on the current existential crisis. The United States has a strategic interest in continuing to promote a stable and prosperous KRG, but it cannot do so without addressing the region’s internal problems.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, Autonomy, and Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG)
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan

153. Climate Change in Egypt: Opportunities and Obstacles

Author:
Amr Hamzawy, Mohammad Al-Mailam, and Joy Arkeh
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Because of climate change, Egypt’s already arid climate will suffer from additional environmental stresses, including extreme temperatures, irregular precipitation, elevated sea levels and land subsidence, coastal flooding, shoreline erosion, deteriorating soil salinity, and persistent drought. These mutually reinforcing impacts will build on one another, worsening water scarcity, hindering food security, displacing exposed populations, and destabilizing the Egyptian economy. Climate change will therefore exert added pressures on already precarious populations and push still other groups to unprecedented levels of vulnerability. Efforts to adapt to a changing climate will also exact a steep price, exposing existing governance shortfalls and deepening deficits. As climate change escalates burdens on state capacity, it will become even more urgent for the country to take proactive measures. Egypt needs, therefore, to accelerate its climate governance efforts if it hopes to stabilize its economy and protect its vulnerable populations. Before evaluating the socioeconomic and political consequences of climate change, it is necessary to outline Egypt’s preexisting environmental challenges. This overview will establish a baseline for understanding the compounding impact of climate change, with a view to how climate change deepens existing vulnerabilities, aggravates governance challenges, and requires new public policy designs to address it.
Topic:
Climate Change, Politics, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:
North Africa and Egypt

154. Arab Peace Initiative II: How Arab Leadership Could Design a Peace Plan in Israel and Palestine

Author:
Amr Hamzawy and Nathan J. Brown
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Past peace processes in Israel and Palestine failed to offer long-term solutions to the conflict, but they showed what makes negotiations work. In the latest round of hostilities in Gaza, key Arab governments are uniquely positioned to leverage relationships with all parties to lay out the conditions that could broker a lasting peace. An Arab Peace Initiative II, with multilateral oversight, would have to offer real benefits for all parties. But for any lasting framework to take hold, these important conditions need to be met. Palestinian and Jewish national identities should be recognized as legitimate and in need of institutional expression. Individual human rights in both communities need to be protected. Antisemitic, Islamophobic, and racist rhetoric and actions must be explicitly and unconditionally repudiated by all actors. Any targeting of civilians should not be merely rejected but actively combated by all actors. Settlement activities in the Palestinian territories and forced displacement of Palestinians to Egypt, Jordan, or anywhere else should be considered outlawed actions that all actors commit to fight against. Full diplomatic, political, and economic relations among participating states should be an outcome of the negotiation process. No stateless people should be left behind at the conclusion of any set of agreements.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Politics, Treaties and Agreements, Reform, and Occupation
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North Africa, and Egypt

155. Northwestern Syria in the Time of Cholera, Earthquakes, and Environmental Degradation

Author:
Marwa Daoudy, Muzna Dureid, and Ethan Mayer-Rich
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The February 6, 2023, earthquake originating near Gaziantep, Turkey displaced thousands of people throughout Syria’s northwest. At the same time, Syrians have had to contend with a host of other challenges, including acute poverty, water insecurity, wildfires, and disease, all of which the earthquake exacerbated. As a delicate political landscape makes delivering life-saving aid in the northwest increasingly difficult, the future of Syria’s internally displaced hangs in the balance.
Topic:
Environment, Health, Politics, Natural Disasters, Reform, Humanitarian Crisis, Earthquake, and Cholera
Political Geography:
Middle East, Syria, and Levant

156. Introducing the Research Project “Sacred Narrative – The Political Dimension of Japanese Mythology"

Author:
Klaus Antoni, Julia Dolkovski, and Louise Neubronner
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
The Kojiki and Nihon shoki have been integral to the formation of Japanese identity, especially since the 18th century. As such, they were constantly exposed to processes of sacralization and desacralization, i.e., the attribution and removal of authority. The research project “Sacred Narrative – The Political Dimension of Japanese Mythology” is concerned with how certain systems of thought or ideology used these texts in a way that raised them to an elevated position or deprived them of it. Organized in three focus areas, the project delves into the topic of the historical change the Kojiki and Nihon shoki underwent in terms of interpretation and instrumentalization from the Edo period up to modern-day Japan. These investigations are integrated into the research group “De/Sacralization of Texts” at the University of Tübingen that started its work in January 2022. In this interdisciplinary context, “Sacred narrative” seeks to promote the integration of East-Asian textuality into general theory formation.
Topic:
Politics, Culture, Identity, and Mythology
Political Geography:
Japan and Asia

157. Kenya: Competition Over Politics and Resources Affect Recent County Border Disputes

Author:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
From 16 September to 10 November, ACLED records 185 political violence events and nearly 120 reported fatalities in Kenya. Most events took place in Nairobi county, where at least nine incidents of mob violence and almost 40 peaceful protests were recorded. Garissa and Samburu had the highest number of reported fatalities, with 22 and 15 recorded each, respectively. The fatalities in Garissa were attributed to suspected al-Shabaab militants, while in Samburu, the deaths were linked to attacks by pastoral militias. The most common event type was protests, with approximately 200 recorded events, followed by riots, at just over 100. The protests focused on various issues, including support for Palestine in response to the conflict in the Gaza Strip. Pro-Palestine protests were held in major towns and cities like Nairobi, Mombasa, and Kisumu.
Topic:
Political Violence, Politics, Territorial Disputes, Borders, and Resources
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, and Horn of Africa

158. Income shocks, political support and voting behaviour

Author:
Richard Upward and Peter Wright
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
We provide new evidence on the effects of economic shocks on political support, voting behaviour and political opinions over the last 25 years. We exploit a sudden, large and long-lasting shock in the form of job loss and trace out its impact on individual political outcomes for up to 10 years after the event. The availability of detailed information on households before and after the job loss event allows us to reweight a comparison group to closely mimic the job losers in terms of their observable characteristics, pre-existing political support and voting behaviour. We find consistent, long-lasting but quantitatively small effects on support and votes for the incumbent party, and short-lived effects on political engagement. We find limited impact on the support for fringe or populist parties. In the context of Brexit, opposition to the EU was much higher amongst those who lost their jobs, but this was largely due to pre-existing differences which were not exacerbated by the job loss event itself.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, European Union, Brexit, Income, and Voting Behavior
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

159. Red herrings: A theory of bad politicians hijacking media attention

Author:
Margot Belguise
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
Politicians are sometimes accused of sending “red herrings”, irrelevant information meant to distract their audience from other information. When do they succeed in fooling voters? How is this affected by the media? This paper proposes a model of election with red herring. An incumbent running for re-election may send an irrelevant ”tale” to distract voters from a scandal. Some politicians may simply enjoy telling irrelevant tales, making it difficult for voters to recognize red herrings. Red herrings can thus be ”successful” in that the incumbent is re-elected despite the scandal. Equilibrium characterization sheds light on two non-trivial results. First, the game sometimes has multiple equilibria: society may coordinate on equilibria with no or some successful red herring through a self-fulfilling social norm of tale-telling. However, high media attention to tales may discipline scandal-free politicians due to voter suspicion of tales, leaving a unique equilibrium with no successful red herring. A dynamic extension introduces feedbacks between the pool of politicians and media attention. Polar cases in which red herring is predicted to increase over time or on the contrary disappear are highlighted. A second extension shows that voter polarization is predicted to have ambiguous effects on politician discipline and thereby on screening.
Topic:
Politics, Media, Voting, and Scandals
Political Geography:
Global Focus

160. Panic politics on the US West Coast

Author:
Nicolas Berman, Björn Brey, and Jérémy Laurent-Lucchetti
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
This study shows that military attacks —through fear and panic— can distort political behavior and create a “conservative shift” in subsequent elections. Using the distance to the Ellwood bombardment in 1942, a shelling of civilian installations on the US mainland during WW2 which caused minimal damage but that created a large wave of panic, we find that support for Republican candidates increased in subsequent Gubernatorial, Presidential and House elections in Californian counties in the vicinity of the incident. Interestingly, the effect appears to persist for a long time, even after WW2 ended. Using a large corpus of articles from Californian newspapers and text analysis, we provide evidence that the event led to a persistent shift in conservative beliefs of local communities. We conclude that attacks, through their psychological effects, might have long-run consequences through preference-shifting and changes in voting behaviors.
Topic:
Politics, History, Conservatism, Psychology, World War II, and Voting Behavior
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

161. Impact of depenalization on drugs deaths in England and Wales. An instrumental variable approach

Author:
Alessandra Foresta and Andrew Pickering
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
This article investigates the role of drug depenalization on drug related deaths in England and Wales. We use an instrumental variable approach, based on Police and Crime Commissioners elections and voters left-wing preferences corresponds a decrease in drug-related arrests. The IV results indicate that a decrease in our instrumented variables generates an increase in deaths related to drug poisoning/drug misuse. Specically, to a decrease of 1% in our instrumented variables corresponds to an increase between 0.04% and 0.07% in the drug poisoning/misuse deaths ratio. We replicate our analysis using different definitions of political preferences, lag specications, dependent and independent variables and the findings are similar.
Topic:
Politics, Law Enforcement, Drugs, Public Health, and Depenalization
Political Geography:
Europe, England, and Wales

162. Global South Versus Geopolitical South: A Debate on the Analytical Relevance of the Concepts

Author:
Hugo Bras Martins da Costa and Rubens de Siqueira Duarte
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
The aim of this article is to analyze the limitations and analytical possibilities offered by the concepts of the Global South and the Geopolitical South for a more accurate understanding of the geopolitical dynamics of international relations in the first decades of the 21st century. In methodological terms, the article is based on an analysis of the history of the concept of the Global South, a critical reflection on the main shortcomings of its definition, a presentation of the concept of the Geopolitical South and, finally, a recognition of its main limitations, in order to indicate suggestions for improvement. In its conclusion, the article argues that the concept of the Geopolitical South generates greater analytical yield compared to the Global South due to its valorization of the agency of the countries of the South, the greater precision of its inclusion and exclusion criteria and its denunciation of the asymmetries and inequalities present in the North-South divide in international relations. However, we also argue that the Geopolitical South needs to be improved so that it is capable of simultaneously contemplating the dimension of the unity of the South, as a counterpoint to the North, the dimension of the diversity of the South, as an ontological phenomenon, and the dimension of change in terms of a state's affiliation to the Geopolitical South over time.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Global Focus and Global South

163. MIT X TAU Series: Africa's New Development Models

Author:
Nicolas Kazadi and Claude Grunitzky
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
The third webinar in the third annual webinar series focused on various aspects of sustainable development in Africa. Featuring: Nicolas Kazadi is is a Congolese politician and career diplomat who has been Ambassador-at-large for the Democratic Republic of the Congo since 7 March 2019 and Minister of Finance since 12 April 2021.
Topic:
Development, Politics, Sustainability, and Models
Political Geography:
Africa and Congo

164. Starr Forum: Chornobyl to Zaporizhzhia: The Atom and its Impact on Ukraine’s Politics and Security

Author:
Kate Brown and Mariana Budjeryn
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
Speakers: Kate Brown is the Thomas M Siebel Distinguished Professor in History of Science at MIT. She is on leave from MIT AY2022-23 and at the Netherland Institute for Advanced Studies. Brown’s research interests illuminate the point where history, science, technology and bio-politics converge to create large-scale disasters and modernist wastelands. She has written four books about topics ranging from population politics, linguistic mapping, the production of nuclear weapons and concomitant utopian communities, the health and environmental consequences of nuclear fallout from the Chernobyl disaster to narrative innovations of history writing in the 21st century.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, Politics, Nuclear Power, and Chernobyl Disaster
Political Geography:
Ukraine and Eastern Europe

165. MIT X TAU Series: Africa's E-Governance, feat. President José Maria Neves

Author:
José Maria Neves and Claude Grunitzky
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
This special event is part of the MIT X TAU webinar series focused on various aspects of sustainable development in Africa. Speaker: His Excellency José Maria Neves is currently the President of the Republic of Cabo Verde. Neves was born on the island of Santiago and became interested in politics as a teenager. He graduated at the School of Business Administration of the Getúlio Vargas Foundation in São Paulo, Brazil. Neves was Prime Minister and Head of the Government from February 2001 to April 2016. He presided over the PAICV - Partido Africano da Independência de Cabo Verde (African Party for the Independence of Cabo Verde), having won three national legislative elections. Moderator: Claude Grunitzky is the CEO of the Equity Alliance, a fund that invests in venture capital firms and startups led by people of color and women. Claude is also the founder of TRACE and TRUE Africa, two media companies championing the creativity of African youth. A graduate of London University and MIT, where he received an MBA as a Sloan Fellow, he is launching TRUE Africa University because he wants to help find actionable ways to nurture Africa's talent.
Topic:
Development, Politics, Governance, Sustainability, and E-Government
Political Geography:
Africa

166. Plebiscitarian Origins and Temptations of Liberal Democracy

Author:
Greg Yudin
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:
The current crisis of representative democracy has been vigorously addressed within political theory over the last decade. Both liberals and the left generally agree that the growing disengagement and estrangement from politics, low trust in representatives, and the rise of right-wing politicians have something to do with the dysfunction of representative democracy. At this point, it is safe to assert that there is an understanding that representative democracy is ailing –– an idea shared by a much wider audience in the liberal-democratic countries. Calls for either reforming the system or abandoning unrealistic hopes are increasingly pressing. What should replace the broken model? Arguably, the most appealing plea is to substitute representative democracy with “direct democracy,” understood as delegating decisions to the popular vote. If elites are corrupt, let the people rule! How this can be done seems pretty obvious, too: let’s take a vote and learn the will of the people! This concept has recently become an important agenda for political parties and movements worldwide and made them successful. Examples include the Five Star Movement in Italy, Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s campaign in Ukraine, and the Indignados Movement in Spain. In the United States, an initiative to institute national referenda in the Constitution enjoys considerable support: according to the polls (which are themselves a way to gauge swiftly the popular will), it is consistently approved by 2/3 of Americans.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

167. Territorial Loss and Ethnopopulism

Author:
Perry Jess Carter and Grigore Pop-Eleches
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:
This paper highlights the overlooked role of prior grievances stemming from historical territorial loss as a significant factor behind support for ethnopopulist parties. While not essential for the emergence of ethnopopulism, territorial loss uniquely aligns with the backward-looking victimization framing crucial to these parties’ electoral success. Utilizing cross-national experimental and observational data from original surveys conducted in 2020–2021 in Romania, Hungary, Germany, and Turkey, we establish territorial loss attitudes as a robust predictor of ethnopopulist party support. In addition to variations in national context, a trade-off emerges for governing populists, revealing that priming past losses attracts concerned voters but alienates those indifferent to territorial issues. Analyzing a quasi-natural experiment involving a new ethnopopulist party that emerged in Romania between waves, we conclude that loss attitudes are stable over time and temporally prior to support for populism.
Topic:
Politics, Territorial Disputes, Populism, and Territory
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Germany, Romania, and Hungary

168. Kuwait Country Report 2022

Author:
Ghanim Alnajjar
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Since 1962, Kuwait has been a relatively open country in terms of freedom of expression and political participation. Although political life in general has faced many challenges and interruptions, political culture is still present and influential. Notably, the Arab Barometer survey ended in June 2022, during a continuing political crisis in the Parliament, in deadlock with the government. The crisis manifested itself in the way several members of the Parliament boycotted the sessions, which led to a political deadlock of sorts. Since the latest elections held before the survey in 2020, the political crisis did witness a considerable escalation. This led, among other things, to a stagnated political process. Surprisingly, the Emir and Crown Prince gave an important speech on 22 June 2022, in which they both expressed their intention to call for early elections, and as such announced the dissolution of the Parliament. This procedure is not new since the Parliament was disbanded ten times out of 18 elections in the past. These reforms led to a general state of optimism in society, which positively impacted the election campaigns. The campaigns became less polarizing and less aggressive against the government. The Parliament was disbanded, and elections were held on 19 September 2022. Results brought new indicators that are worthy of highlighting, but which are outside the scope of the survey. It is likely that if the survey was delayed until after June, the results would have been different from the results that came in before the governmental reforms. It might be useful to conduct a second follow-up survey as soon as possible, even if it will be conducted through phone interviews, and be limited to certain questions only. In any case, the survey results are consistent with earlier surveys. There is a clear sense of dissatisfaction with the government, especially in relation to some specific policies, like public education policies and anti-corruption measures. It is notable also that the government’s policies towards Covid-19 were evaluated positively. Moreover, certain cultural elements and concerns, especially in relation to gender, have showed some important changes worthy of more studies. The same applies to the economic situation. In spite of the generally negative economic circumstances, the overall trend towards the economy shows noticeable optimism. The survey also focused on questions related to the workforce and employment, being largely concentrated in the public sector, with less employed in the private sector. The survey shows the intensive use of social media platforms in the country.
Topic:
International Relations, Corruption, Education, Environment, Gender Issues, Migration, Politics, Governance, Media, Economy, Institutions, COVID-19, Labor Market, Freedom, and Political System
Political Geography:
Middle East, Kuwait, and Gulf Nations

169. KEI's Special Project on the South Korean Nuclear Armament Debate

Author:
Andy Hong, Karl Friedhoff, Terrence Matsuo, Clint Work, and Jennifer Ahn
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
South Korea’s nuclear armament debate received renewed attention in 2023. But, this issue is one that has animated Korean politics, both domestic and international, for the past five decades. To explore this multifaceted issue, KEI brought together 12 emerging and mid-career experts to cover the South Korean nuclear weapons debate from three angles—the historical background, the domestic discourse, and the international implications. The views expressed herein are the authors’ alone.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, Politics, and Armament
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

170. The minilateral moment in the Middle East: An opportunity for US regional policy?

Author:
Jean-Loup Samaan
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
In a new Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative issue brief, “The Minilateral Moment in the Middle East: An Opportunity for US Regional Policy,” the Atlantic Council’s nonresident senior fellow Jean-Loup Samaan analyzes how regional powers are reconsidering the multilateral balance of their foreign policy arrangements, and the emerging implications for US Middle East policy. Over the past three years, the Middle East has experienced major intra-regional changes. After a decade of fierce competition between two blocs—one led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the other by Qatar and Turkey—both parties now seem willing to cooperate. One of the key features of this new regional environment, according to Samaan, has been the growth of so-called minilateral initiatives that regroup several countries on an ad hoc basis. Samaan also addresses how powers outside the region have embarked on a similar path of building relationships with countries in the Middle East. Russia’s recent attempt to build a similar framework with Turkey and Iran, he argues, provides evidence of how minilateralism is increasingly considered an effective instrument of regional diplomacy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, Reform, Resilience, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

171. A US agenda for action in Sudan’s information environment

Author:
Cameron Hudson
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
There are few African countries that have received the same degree of high-level and sustained attention from the US government, during the administrations of both Donald Trump and Joe Biden, as the Republic of Sudan. While this engagement stems in large part from a long history of Washington leading diplomatic efforts to isolate the Sudanese government for its support for terrorism during the 1990s, advance the peace process in the country’s north-south civil war, and eventually punish the government for the Darfur genocide, Washington’s renewed diplomatic engagement at the time of Sudan’s 2018 popular uprising reflected a sense of opportunity that real change was potentially coming to the country. The historic events during the spring and summer of 2019, beginning with longtime dictator Omar al-Bashir’s arrest and removal by senior army officers and the brokering of a civilian-military hybrid government, created both an opportunity and what many in Washington saw as an obligation to help Sudan’s transition succeed. After decades of economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation, the installation of a civilian-led government created the minimal condition that allowed Washington and Western allied governments to begin the task of providing a trusted local partner with the assistance to begin reforming the political system, stabilizing the economy, and transforming the armed forces that would eventually enable a full transition to democracy, one of the popular demands of the revolution. By late 2019, during a historic visit to Washington by Sudan’s newly named prime minister, Abdallah Hamdok, the Trump administration announced a process to normalize diplomatic relations with Sudan through an exchange of ambassadors, among other steps. Privately, the Trump administration also set about the task of constructing an assistance package that would meet the moment and provide the technical, financial, and development assistance needed to demonstrate a true “democracy dividend” to the vast majority of average Sudanese who were by this time struggling under the weight of financial collapse brought on by the one-two punch of regime neglect and, soon, COVID-19 shutdowns. Washington, however, was both ill-postured and slow to foresee the monumental political opening occurring in the early days of the revolution and then further delayed by an interlocking web of restrictions and prohibitions, some of them self-imposed and some imposed by the US Congress, that limited its ability to scale up resources in a timely manner. In addition to the challenges of having to undo more than twenty-five years of bureaucratic restrictions and red tape, Washington also needed to scale up its human resources inside Sudan that had largely dwindled over the years.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Politics, Media, Internet, Conflict, and Disinformation
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, North America, and United States of America

172. Investigating China’s economic coercion: The reach and role of Chinese corporate entities

Author:
William Piekos
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
China’s economic statecraft has expanded in line with Beijing’s vision for an international environment that is more conducive to its interests. Chinese President Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) are willing to use every means at their disposal to achieve this goal, bringing the full force of the party-state to bear in support of Xi’s objectives abroad and against perceived enemies of the Chinese government. Economic statecraft—the use of economic means to pursue foreign policy goals—has been a consistent feature of Xi’s dealings with CCP competitors and adversaries. Intensifying US-China strategic competition and Beijing’s increasingly overt attempts to assert its preferences only further emphasize the importance of confronting China’s use of economic coercion and influence and understanding the reach of Chinese companies. The deliberate use of economic ties to achieve geopolitical objectives is underpinned by corporate entities that facilitate trade, investment, and financial flows.1 Beijing’s preference for plausible deniability and nontransparency in theory makes corporate entities an attractive mechanism through which to signal its displeasure and to achieve strategic goals. Understanding the reach and role of such entities is, therefore, key to identifying where Beijing might be best positioned to advance its economic statecraft. To that end, this report explores avenues through which researchers can investigate these issues, considers industries that could be vulnerable to future coercion and influence, and offers policy recommendations to counter China’s economic statecraft.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Politics, Global Markets, Economy, Trade, Norms, and Coercion
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Indo-Pacific

173. Palestinian Democracy: Examining Barriers to Democratic Transition and How to Overcome Them

Author:
Pal-Think for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The paper examines the obstacles to democracy in Palestine, most notably the Israeli occupation, which has distorted the structures of Palestinian society and its desired state and impeded the elections. In addition, the Palestinian division has also led to the absence of national consensus on the time and manner of holding the elections. The paper also presented internal and external factors obstructing the conduct of democratic transitions in Palestine. The paper concluded with a set of policy proposals to address these obstacles, such as holding local and general elections, turning to the international community to help the Palestinians build their democracy and hold elections, and consolidating the values of democracy through a social and political upbringing in the emerging Palestinian generation.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Democracy, Occupation, and Democratic Transitions
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

174. The Economic Impact of China PNTR Repeal

Author:
David Schockenhoff and Michael Kleiman
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
As scepticism towards China is rising among policymakers, businesses grow more concerned about the potential economic fallout from an escalation in US-China tariff policy. Oxford Economics was commissioned by the US-China Business Council (USCBC) to help inform the policymaking process by examining two scenarios that could materialize if China’s Permanent Normalized Trade Relations (PNTR) status was revoked – including the increase of US tariffs on Chinese goods to column 2 rates as well as a Chinese retaliation imposing pre-WTO rates on US goods. Our analysis incorporates state-of-the art trade and economic models, including the Oxford Economics GEM, and finds that the US could lose up to $1.9trn in output over the five-year period following a China PNTR repeal. This is our third study for USCBC after examining the impact of the US-China relationship and associated scenarios in two previous reports (2017 and 2021).
Topic:
Economics, Politics, Bilateral Relations, Regulation, Tariffs, Trade, Supply Chains, Policymaking, Decoupling, and Goods and Services
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

175. Marcia Williams: The Life and Times of Baroness Falkender

Author:
Linda McDougall
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
Over a decade before Margaret Thatcher swept to power in May 1979, another woman was running Britain from 10 Downing Street: Marcia Williams, private and political secretary to Harold Wilson. Having worked for Wilson since 1956, Williams became the Prime Minister’s trusted adviser and confidante forming, as the historian Ben Pimlott once described it, ‘the most famous and mysterious partnership in modern political history’. To mark the publication of Marcia Williams: The Life and Times of Baroness Falkender by ‪@BitebackPublishing‬, the ‪@mileendinstitute4300‬ and Tides of History welcomed her biographer, Linda McDougall, to ‪@QMUL‬‪@QMUL‬, where Marcia Field (as she then was) studied History from 1951 to 1954 and was Secretary of the Labour Society. Linda McDougall is a leading journalist, television producer and author of several books on women in politics. In addition to charting Williams’ rise through the Labour Party, Linda examined the assumptions and accusations that were a constant accompaniment to her political career and charted her influence on British politics and policy.
Topic:
Politics, Women, Domestic Politics, Labour Party, and Marcia Williams
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

176. Governing in Hard Times Conference: The UK Economy

Author:
Colm Murphy, Seema Malhotra, Diane Coyle, and Jeevun Sandher
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
In the first of four thematic sessions on the urgent political and policy questions facing British politics ahead of the next general election, this panel considered how a centre-left government could maintain macroeconomic credibility, while also achieving its policy goals. It considered what institutional and political relationships it would have to renew - with trade unions, organised business, the City, and others - the appeal of 'Bidenomics' and how radical the next Chancellor of the Exchequer will be able to be. Chair: Dr Colm Murphy (Deputy Director of the Mile End Institute) Panel: Seema Malhotra MP (MP for Feltham and Heston and Shadow Minister for Business and Consumers) Professor Diane Coyle (Co-Director of the Bennett Institute for Public Policy at the University of Cambridge) Dr Jeevun Sandher (Labour Party Parliamentary Candidate for Loughborough)
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Economy, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

177. Breaking the Glass Chamber: Mary Honeyball on the life and times of Edith Summerskill MP

Author:
Mary Honeyball
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
2022 marks a series of historic anniversaries for women in British politics. Forty years since the election of Harriet Harman, the Mother of the House; thirty-five years since the election of the first Black woman MP, Diane Abbott; thirty years since the first woman, Betty Boothroyd, was elected Speaker of the House; and twenty-five years since the election of more than a hundred women MPs for the Labour Party. At its landmark Breaking the Glass Chamber conference from 15 to 17 September 2022, the Mile End Institute brought together historians, political scientists, and sociologists to explore what politics meant to and for women in the second half of the twentieth century. In this video, the former Labour MEP, Mary Honeyball, presents her new biography of Edith Summerskill, the 'Pioneering Feminist Labour MP', who served in Clement Attlee's government and oversaw the creation of the National Insurance Scheme. Mary discusses how Summerskill's campaigning was instrumental in promoting women's causes throughout her life and reflects on her achievements in securing equal rights for housewives and divorced women over property.
Topic:
Politics, History, Elections, Women, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

178. Breaking the Glass Chamber: Reflections on Parliamentary Careers

Author:
Estelle Morris and Dawn Primarolo
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
2022 marks a series of historic anniversaries for women in British politics. Forty years since the election of Harriet Harman, the Mother of the House; thirty-five years since the election of the first Black woman MP, Diane Abbott; thirty years since the first woman, Betty Boothroyd, was elected Speaker of the House; and twenty-five years since the election of more than a hundred women MPs for the Labour Party. At its landmark Breaking the Glass Chamber conference from 15 to 17 September 2022, the Mile End Institute brought together historians, political scientists, and sociologists to explore what politics meant to and for women in the second half of the twentieth century. In this session - chaired by Dr Ruth Davidson - Dame Margaret Hodge (MP for Barking and Dagenham, 1994-present), Baroness (Estelle) Morris (MP for Birmingham Yardley, 1992-2005), and Baroness (Dawn) Primarolo (MP for Bristol South, 1987-2015) reflect on their lengthy parliamentary careers and their time in government and offer some lessons for women entering Parliament and public life.
Topic:
Politics, Women, Representation, and Parliament
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

179. Quo Vadis Indonesian Democracy? A Closer Look at Dynastic Politics

Author:
Irine Hiraswari Gayatri
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
While being recognized as a “reluctant global statesman” (Wee 2022), President Joko Widodo is known for his pace in advancing Indonesia’s infrastructure development and his popularity ratings have been high. However, the stability of Indonesian democracy recently faces a threat from the growing symptom of political dynasties, a recurring political feature in Southeast Asia including Indonesia. Political dynasty in Indonesia refers to the phenomenon where political power or political positions are passed down from generation to generation within one family or lineage. Establishing a political dynasty is often considered a political strategy to gain and maintain power. By using family power and influence, politicians can build strong support networks. In theory, political dynasty has both positive and negative connotations. Positive connotations can occur if the generation holding power is proven competent; however, this may happen when the institutional structure, for instance, a political party, is weak. On the other hand, negative connotations arise when the dynastic systеm is used to maintain power within a family without paying attention to leadership quality. Nevertheless, the case in Indonesia involving President Jokowi’s son in the 2024 election as a Vice President candidate has yielded more negative responses. Several fundamental variables could lead to the establishment of political dynasties. One of these reasons is the desire for personal or family power. Furthermore, there are structured collectives formed by mutual consensus and a feeling of cohesion, leading to the emergence of group leaders and participants. This is made possible by a multi-party democratic systеm. Moreover, the collaboration between leaders and businesses requires certain conditions to combine the power of financial resources with the power of political personalities. Ultimately, there is a propensity to “assign onuses” between the government and influential individuals with money, which often results in corruption.
Topic:
Politics, Democracy, Presidency, and Meritocracy
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

180. ECOWAS and the management of political transitions in Mali, Guinea and Burkina Faso: Adopting a three-dimensional approach for stability and sustainable democracy and development

Author:
Mubin Adewumi Bakare
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
According to the Secretary General of the United Nations (UN), Antonio Guterres, 2021 was a year marked by ‘an epidemic’ of coups.1 The Economist noted that 2021 saw more coups than the previous five years combined.2 Scrutinising the data further reveals that the West African region experienced the largest number of military coups, both successful and failed, during 2021 and 2022. There were four successful coups d’état in Mali, Guinea and Burkina Faso, and failed coup attempts and mutiny in Niger and Guinea Bissau between March 2021 to January 2022. This democratic reversal portends political instability, and its attendant economic consequences for the ECOWAS are concerning considering the developmental agenda of the region.3 The focus of this article is examining measures for strengthening democratic transitions in Mali, Guinea and Burkina Faso by analysing responses at the national, regional and international levels to ensure rapid restoration of constitutional order. It begins by reviewing the experience of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in supporting democratic transition in the region, while stressing and recognising the interlinkages between defence, development and peacebuilding in laying the foundation for democratisation, peace and sustainable development. The article will advance certain policy prescriptions that entail long-term investments by the international community, and regional and civil society actors in West Africa in the areas of defence, development and peacebuilding, as part of a comprehensive support towards successful democratic transition in the affected countries.
Topic:
Development, Politics, Democracy, Transition, and ECOWAS
Political Geography:
Africa, Mali, Guinea, and Burkina Faso

181. Josie Mpama

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
The twentieth century was marked by national liberation struggles that emerged in Africa and Asia, as well as in Latin America, where neocolonial structures had subordinated the formally independent countries. The achievements of the Russian Revolution in 1917 inspired the peasantry and the working class across the Global South. The fight for equality and liberation under the leadership of working people is ongoing in the anti-imperialist struggles of our time. Women, in a myriad of ways, have powerfully shaped and continue to shape all of these struggles. In the Women of Struggle, Women in Struggle series of Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research, we present the stories of women in struggle who contributed not only to the wider arena of politics, but who also pioneered the establishment of women’s organisations, opening up paths of feminist resistance and struggle throughout the twentieth century. Praxis, as a knowledge of theory and organisational methods of struggle as they change and respond to history, gives sustenance to ongoing struggles against oppression. As militants, we study the diverse lives, contexts, and organisational methods of these women not only to better understand their political contributions, but also to inspire us as we build the organisations necessary to win the fight against oppression and exploitation today. In the fourth study of this series, we discuss the life and political struggles of Josie Mpama (1903–1979), a leader in the resistance against colonial oppression and the apartheid system in South Africa. Josie was a key figure in the history of women organisers in South Africa and a leader in the Communist Party of South Africa. Her life teaches us about the importance of grassroots and mass organising, as well as the challenges that come with that work. Like so many women involved in radical politics, particularly in the Global South, Josie’s extraordinary political contributions and theoretical acumen have been overlooked and largely excluded from the mainstream historical record.
Topic:
Politics, Women, Resistance, and Josie Mpama
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

182. China’s South China Sea Overreach Faces Growing Obstacles

Author:
Denny Roy
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Even without the mandate of a formal international organization, coalitions of willing governments can coalesce around the task of dissuading China from enforcing invalid South China Sea claims.
Topic:
Politics, Territorial Disputes, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
China, Asia-Pacific, and South China Sea

183. Urban Politics in the Middle East

Author:
Mona Harb, Marc Lynch, Jillian Schwedler, Gehad Abaza, and Munqeth Othman
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
Urban politics has received growing attention in the anthropology, sociology, and political science of the MENA region. In line with global trends, questions of scale, territory, flows and connectivities and materialities have come to the fore, with a wide range of creative and novel lines of inquiry connecting the global to the hyper-local and every scale in between. In February 2023, POMEPS partnered with the Beirut Urban Lab at the American University of Beirut and The Policy Initiative think tank for a workshop in Beirut to bring together an interdisciplinary group of young scholars from across the region to explore questions of urban life, politics, and culture. The papers moved beyond more traditional political science topics such as municipal government, decentralization, clientelistic voting, protests, and clientelism. While those themes certainly operated in the background, the authors assembled in Beirut pushed to shift the lens towards multi-scalar ethnographic modes of inquiry, highlighting the materialities and relationalities of the hyper-local, examining sites and places which concentrate power dynamics.
Topic:
Economics, Migration, Politics, Race, Religion, Sectarianism, Culture, Syrian War, Mobility, Urban, Trade, Music, Transportation, Cities, Heritage, Resistance, Labor Market, Domestic Work, and Urbicide
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Tehran, Baghdad, Algeria, North Africa, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia, Beirut, Cairo, Tunis, and Aqaba

184. The Impact of Colonization on Language Policy in Indigenous Languages

Author:
Elisa Loncon
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
On 18 December 2019, in its 50th Plenary Session, the United Nations Gen- eral Assembly proclaimed the International Decade of Indigenous Languages (2022–2032) to draw attention to the endangerment and erasure of indigenous languages and to assemble states to allocate funds to revitalize and promote languages.1 This piece will discuss the linguistic policies applied to indigenous peoples and how they have influenced the abandonment of native languages to favor Spanish. Since the Spanish set foot on the lands of the continent, they began to exterminate indigenous languages. The dispossession of the people’s wealth was not only territorial—it was also linguistic and cultural. This piece reflects on the political nature of languages and explains how racism, as part of the colonial paradigm, has contributed to the reduction in the importance of languages and limited our understanding of them to a cultural artifact or folklore.
Topic:
Politics, Culture, Language, Indigenous, Colonization, and Language Policy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

185. Taiwan's Security Future: How Domestic Politics Impact Taipei’s Defense

Author:
Ethan Kessler
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:
With a presidential election fast approaching, Taipei’s defense policy could go in multiple directions. As China has grown more militarily capable and assertive under President Xi Jinping, Beijing’s promise to forcibly unify with Taiwan has increasingly worried both Taiwan and the United States. Beijing’s large-scale military exercise near Taiwan this fall underscores the role Taiwan’s own military capabilities play in deterring conflict in the Taiwan Strait. To that end, US policymakers have increased defense cooperation with Taiwan and urged Taipei to do more for its defense in recent years. However, whether Taipei will stick to the defense policies implemented under current president Tsai Ing-wen is uncertain. This coming January, Taiwan’s voters will select a new president. Currently leading the polls is Vice President Lai Ching-te of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which is committed to Taiwan’s sovereignty and views Taiwan as effectively already independent. Beijing has angrily decried this position and boycotted talks with Taipei as long as the DPP remains in power. Meanwhile, the path ahead for the Kuomintang (KMT), the primary opposition party, is riven with internal fissures. The party has traditionally sought closer economic and cultural ties with Beijing to defuse tensions—something it seems uniquely qualified for, since the PRC will not talk to the current DPP government. Yet emphasizing dialogue with an increasingly aggressive PRC, especially after Xi’s crackdown on Hong Kong’s limited self-government in 2020, has soured many voters on the KMT’s message. In response, reformers in the party have suggested a new direction more closely aligned with the DPP on national security to win back moderate voters, while traditionalists have doubled down on the old promise of peace through dialogue. This latter path would be worrying for the Biden administration, which has increased arms sales to Taipei and presided over a period of worsening US-China mistrust. US concerns are a helpful reminder that, whether discussing Taiwan’s future or the risk of a catastrophic cross-Strait war, Taiwan’s own politics cannot be ignored. The rigor of Taipei’s defense—and, with it, the health of cross-Strait deterrence—will depend largely on the course Taiwan’s politics take.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Politics, Elections, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, East Asia, and United States of America

186. The Role of the Geopolitical Position of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan Towards American Foreign Policy from 1990 to 2017

Author:
Ala Alkhawaldeh, Mohammad Ahmad Nayef Alakash, Hani A. M. Akho-Rashida, Ziad Mohammad Al Wahshat, and Mohammad Saleh Bani Issa
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
The role of the geopolitical location of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan towards United States (US) foreign policy from 1990 to 2017 is the focus of this study, which addressed the impact of important regional and international political events, positively or negatively, on the development of relations between the two countries in terms of political and security aspects. The study adopted a qualitative approach, and primary data was collected through interviews with 16 participants from political, economic, and security experts in Jordan and the US. Thematic analysis was used to analyze the data obtained. The study concluded that US foreign policy recognizes Jordan as a close ally and considers its stability extremely important; Jordan has a suitable location to defend Israel because critical Arab countries surround it, and Jordan enjoys a unique geographical location in the Middle East. Some political events play an essential role in US foreign policy concerning security aid to Jordan, as the US links its aid to Jordan to political events.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Politics, Geopolitics, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Middle East, Jordan, and United States of America

187. Saudi-Houthi Talks Resume - The Yemen Review, August 2023

Author:
Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The strategic city of Marib saw an increase in fighting on several fronts. The Houthis have been reinforcing their positions in the area, which they attempted to seize in a massive and costly offensive two years ago. Should negotiations break down, Marib is seen as a likely area of renewed contestation due to its oil and gas resources. A new counterterrorist campaign was launched in Abyan to target Al-Qaeda forces in the governorate. Named ‘Swords of Haws’, the operation is being conducted by an array of STC and pro-government forces. The campaign reported it had succeeded in securing the Rafd and Jenin Valleys, but had faced strong resistance from Al-Qaeda forces in Mudiya district. Frontline fighting on the border of Al-Bayda and Lahj rose significantly in August, including a particularly large Houthi assault on STC positions on August 26-27 that resulted in dozens of casualties. Two Doctors Without Borders employees were kidnapped by unidentified gunmen in Marib as they traveled from Seyoun. No group has yet claimed responsibility for the incident. An officer investigating last month’s killing of World Food Programme Moayad Hameidi was assassinated. The officer, a member of the Taiz Political Security department, had received death threats and demanded he halt the investigation. Five UN employees were released on August 11, after being held captive by Al-Qaeda for more than 18 months. The group was reportedly released after lengthy Omani mediation and the payment of a ransom, though the UN has disputed these claims. Houthi forces continue to besiege villages of the Bani Nawf tribe in Al-Jawf following the killing of a prominent local Houthi commander. A number of tribes have responded by calling for united action, others have sided with the Houthis.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Politics, Counter-terrorism, Economy, Houthis, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia

188. Houthis Target Israel Amid Gaza Conflict - The Yemen Review, September and October 2023

Author:
Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The Houthi group (Ansar Allah) claimed responsibility for a series of attempted missile and drone strikes on Israel. The Houthis have threatened to keep up the attacks as long as the Israeli military operation in Gaza continues. Four projectiles were intercepted by a US warship in the Red Sea, where the group has expanded its operations, and it could threaten shipping in the area in the future. Hamas’ deadly incursion into Israel and the subsequent conflict has fueled fears of a broader conflagration across the Arab world, potentially drawing in Iran and the US. While this still appears unlikely, the Houthis’ involvement could yet provoke retaliatory strikes from Israel or the US. The conflict is also proving a boon for recruitment for Al-Qaeda in Yemen. The Houthis staged a massive military parade on September 21 to celebrate the anniversary of their seizure of the capital in 2014. They then cracked down heavily on September 26 revolution celebrations, which mark the end of the Imamate and the beginning of republican rule. Thousands were reportedly arrested and detained, and a number of people were beaten for participation, as the event now carries symbolic importance as resistance against Houthi rule. Yemen has also seen nationwide demonstrations in support of the Palestinians over the course of October. Two border incidents marked a rare resumption of violence between the Houthis and foreign members of the Saudi coalition. Five Bahraini soldiers were killed following a Houthi drone strike along the border on September 25, and four Saudi soldiers were killed in a raid one month later. There has been speculation that the incidents reflect internal dissent over progressing Saudi-Houthi peace talks. Heavy fighting in Al-Dhalea has killed scores of fighters on both sides, though the frontlines have moved little. The renewed violence has been accompanied by the assassination and attempted assassination of local military leaders.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Politics, Economy, Houthis, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Palestine, Gaza, and Saudi Arabia

189. Drugs and State Vigilantism as a Strategy of Political Activity: The Example of Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia

Author:
Kornel Bielawski
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
The problem of distribution and consumption of intoxicating substances is considered a socially harmful phenomenon and Southeast Asia is a region particularly affected by drugs. In the face of this challenge, the heads of many states undertake radical actions, going beyond the legal framework, referred to as state vigilantism. Based on the example of three selected political leaders (Thaksin Shinawatra, Rodrigo Duterte and Joko Widodo), the author points out how radical strategies for fighting the drug problem contribute to increasing popularity, even though the problem has not been resolved since the early 1970s. Cross-comparison analysis of the three mentioned cases aims at identifying sources of effectiveness and attractiveness of populist methods that have not changed significantly for fifty years. Among them the author argues that vigilantism grows out of populism and takes the form of a spectacle containing such elements as dehumanising discourse, extrajudicial killings and the theme of the nation’s morality at risk.
Topic:
Politics, Populism, Drugs, and Vigilantism
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, and Southeast Asia

190. The Responses of Pakistan and Turkey to Refugee Influxes: A Comparative Analysis of Durable Solutions to Protracted Displacements

Author:
Hidayet Siddikoglu and Ali Zafer Sagiroglu
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:
Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:
This research aims to study how Turkey and Pakistan (the world’s largest refugee hosting countries) have reacted to and managed protracted refugee challenges. In the context of Pakistan, the study explores the Afghan refugee influx since the late 1970, while for Turkey the focus is on the Syrian refugee inflow since 2011. While cognizant of contextual differences (time and space) between these two countries, we aim to comparatively explore policies, best practices, and short and long-term solutions developed to protracted displacement issues in each country. To do this we intend to comparatively explore the role of institutional environments and the international refugee regime in resolving protracted refugee issues in a chronological sequence. First, we investigate how each state’s “open-door policies” toward the first influx of refugees evolved into ad-hoc solutions in the course of protracted displacement. Second, we comparatively assess multilevel integration approaches and solution strategies at the macro (states and their cooperation with countries of origin and inter-governmental organizations such as the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and International Organization for Migration (IOM)), meso (interventions/implementations), and micro levels (civil society and refugee-led initiatives). Third, we examine how refugee policies in each country are negotiated with national and international humanitarian and refugee agencies, including regional organizations and countries of origin. Theoretically, this article is grounded on a macro structural approach (state’s international humanitarian obligations and responsibilities), refugee diplomacy (state’s use of diplomatic tools, process administering refugees), and management theories.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Migration, Politics, and Refugees
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, Turkey, and Middle East

191. CCP Ideology, 1976-1980: From the “Two Whatevers,” to the “Criterion of Truth,” to the “Four Cardinal Principles,” and beyond

Author:
Frederick C. Teiwes and Warren Sun
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
China Studies Centre, The University of Sydney
Abstract:
This Working Paper is a draft chapter for a book on the poorly understood CCP elite politics of the early post-Mao period, tentatively entitled Hua Guofeng, Deng Xiaoping, and the Dismantling of Maoism. Nowhere is this period more misunderstood than in the area of ideology and its notional centrality to an imagined Hua-Deng power struggle. In the accepted narrative, a critical feature of this struggle is the February 1977 “two whatevers” editorial notionally requiring support for all of Mao’s decisions, that allegedly sought to prevent Deng’s return to work and to enforce a rigid ideological framework preventing significant change from Mao’s practices. In fact, Deng’s return to high office had been decided at the start of January, and more importantly, from the earliest days of Hua’s leadership, the task was to move away from Mao’s Cultural Revolution but to maintain regime stability and unity by expressing fealty to a leader still deeply worshipped in major sections of the population and respected by Party leaders, notably those of the revolutionary generation. Claims that “whateverists” engaged in an intense struggle with reformers seeking a pragmatic approach under the slogan “practice is the sole criterion of truth” beginning in May 1978 are not totally amiss, but they exaggerate the situation and do not adequately account for the fact that the conflict was largely among lower-level figures on the theoretical front who did not deeply engage the top leadership. There were nuanced differences between Hua and Deng on the “criterion of truth” question but nothing fundamental, and neither wanted ideological issues to disrupt the economic agenda of the fall 1978 pre-Third Plenum work conference. At the conference, however, arguments initiated by progressive theorists resulted in official acceptance of the criterion position, although there was high-level concern, most prominently expressed by Deng, for proceeding with caution, particularly as it related to Mao’s prestige. More broadly, in Party ranks many felt the plenum’s policies had gone too far and were leading to disruption in society. At the end of March 1979, Deng reacted with his “four cardinal principles” speech that demanded adherence to the political practice of Mao’s pre-Cultural Revolution period. This not only alarmed progressives but it also created leadership concern that the practical focus of the Third Plenum policies was being undermined. Deng then sought to bolster those policies, but at the time of the 30th anniversary of the PRC, he still gave priority to the “four principles” and defence of Mao. Indeed, he explicitly affirmed a lavish claim concerning Mao’s essential role in the Party’s successes, the same claim that had appeared in the “two whatevers” editorial more than two and a half years earlier.
Topic:
Politics, History, Ideology, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:
China and Asia

192. Euroscepticism at the National and European Levels and Its Reflection in the European Parliament Roll Call Votes

Author:
Özlem Ultan
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Novus Orbis: Journal of Politics & International Relations
Institution:
Department of International Relations, Karadeniz Technical University
Abstract:
This article provides an overview of Euroscepticism at the domestic and European levels. The study also aims to explain how the concept of Euroscepticism finds its response in the European parliamentary elections. It aims to make a two-fold contribution to the study of Euroscepticism. First, within the scope of party-based Euroscepticism, the relationship between loyalty to the national party and loyalty to party groups after being elected as a Member of the European Parliament will be examined. Second, these loyalties will be analyzed within the framework of Eurosceptic policy issues. Thus, the stance of Eurosceptic parliamentarians in the roll call votes will be investigated from the perspectives of the arguments of both their national parties and the European Party Groups (EPG). In the study, the voting tendencies of Eurosceptic parliamentarians on issues focusing on Euroscepticism were analyzed. Thus, the level of loyalty of Eurosceptic parliamentarians at the national or European level in the European Parliamentary elections will be examined and tried to be revealed.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, European Union, European Parliament, Euroskepticism, and Loyalty
Political Geography:
Europe

193. Abortion Attitudes in a Post-Roe World: Findings From the 50-State 2022 American Values Atlas

Author:
PRRI Staff
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:
In late June 2022, the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson overturned Roe v. Wade, reversing nearly five decades of precedent that had established a national right to abortion access. Republican-majority legislatures in several states had been chipping away at abortion rights for the past several years through increasingly strict regulations, but the Dobbs decision suddenly changed the policy landscape regarding reproductive rights, catapulting abortion to the forefront of American politics. The immediate impact of repealing Roe v. Wade was that control over abortion law reverted to the states. Some states had “trigger laws” in place to immediately impose abortion restrictions in the event that Roe was overturned, while others had protections in place to keep abortion policy as it was under Roe. In other states, lawmakers went to work crafting legislation in response to Dobbs. As of January 2023, the New York Times reports, 13 states have full abortion bans, some of which allow for exceptions if the life of the mother is in danger and in cases of rape or incest, and Georgia has a 6-week ban in place.[1] According to the Guttmacher Institute, abortion-access laws vary widely in the rest of the country, but all other states allow abortions at least up to 15 weeks into pregnancy.[2] Some state abortion laws have been challenged in court, and access has changed as court orders blocking or allowing restrictions have been put in place or lifted. Republicans in some states have made efforts to restrict reproductive rights a step further, pushing legislation that would limit people’s ability to receive abortion pills by mail or cross state lines to get abortion services, and would even label some forms of birth control as abortifacients.[3] Beginning in March 2022 and throughout the rest of the year, PRRI surveyed Americans about their views on abortion legality and related issues as part of our American Values Atlas. The scope of the project allows us to report results on some questions for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. In general, we found that most Americans support abortion legality in most or all cases and oppose the overturn of Roe. This report delves into the political, religious, and demographic correlates of various opinions on abortion access.
Topic:
Health, Politics, Religion, Survey, Reproductive Health, and Abortion
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

194. Religion and Congregations in a Time of Social and Political Upheaval

Author:
PRRI Staff
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:
The religious landscape of the United States has changed dramatically in the past few decades as the country has become more demographically diverse, more Americans than ever have disaffiliated with organized religion, and religious leaders have faced a cultural milieu increasingly polarized along racial and political lines. Churches are also transitioning back to in-person services following the COVID-19 pandemic and dealing with ongoing ripple effects from other major events, including national protests for racial justice, a divisive 2020 presidential election that resulted in a deadly insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, and renewed state legislative battles over reproductive and LGBTQ rights. This new survey examines the religious behaviors of Americans amid this uncertain cultural and political landscape. In addition to highlighting religious affiliation trends, we consider the importance of religion to Americans and look at how often they attend church and engage in religious activities such as prayer. We also look at trends in religious “switching”—leaving one religion for another—and consider the reasons Americans do so. We also analyze the political context that congregations face today. We ask regular churchgoers how often they discuss political and cultural issues in their churches, how well their churches address those issues, and the extent to which partisan divides are apparent in their congregations.
Topic:
Politics, Religion, Elections, LGBT+, and Reproductive Health
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

195. The Politics of Gender, Pronouns, and Public Education

Author:
PRRI Staff
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:
Political debates about gender identity have become heated in recent years, as some state legislatures have increasingly sought to restrict transgender rights. Battles over how — or even if — sexual orientation and gender identity should be discussed in public schools are also erupting at school boards nationally, amid larger frustrations with public education that have emerged in the wake of the pandemic and other social tumult. This new study of more than 5,000 Americans takes a closer look at Americans’ views on gender identity and what is appropriate to teach in public schools with respect to sexual orientation and gender identity. We also gauge Americans’ comfort levels with the idea of a friend using gender-neutral pronouns or pronouns that may not match the respondent’s perception of their friend’s gender. We also ask Americans their thoughts about the age at which children should receive sex education in public schools and what content is appropriate. We consider how partisanship, religion, media trust, parental status, and generation relate to people’s views on these matters. We also consider how knowing people who are LGBTQ influences such views.
Topic:
Politics, LGBT+, Transgender, and Gender Identity
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

196. Clergy and Congregations in a Time of Transformation: Findings from the 2022-2023 Mainline Protestant Clergy Survey

Author:
PRRI Staff
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:
Mainline Protestant denominations have played an outsized role in America’s history, given that most of the nation’s founders were members of what we now refer to as mainline Protestant churches. Until the 1960s, more than half of American adults identified with the largest seven mainline Protestant traditions.[1] Since that time, mainline Protestant denominations have suffered significant declines in membership, although their membership numbers have stabilized somewhat in the past few years. Mainline Protestants remained arguably the most neglected of the major religious groups in the American landscape. Unlike white evangelical Protestant clergy and clergy from predominately Black Protestant denominations, mainline Protestant clergy historically are less politically aligned with their congregants and face congregations that are more ideologically diverse.[2] The perspectives of mainline Protestant clergy merit more consideration for several reasons, including their role as leaders within their churches and their local communities. Studies show that clergy often have a significant role in influencing their congregants’ religious and cultural views.
Topic:
Politics, Religion, Clergy, and Protestantism
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

197. Threats to American Democracy Ahead of an Unprecedented Presidential Election

Author:
PRRI Staff
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:
In this divided era of American politics, the nation turns its eyes toward an unprecedented presidential election, with two of the oldest leading candidates in history — one of whom is facing federal and state indictments related to efforts to overturn the previous election. The 14th Annual American Values survey, conducted by PRRI in partnership with the Brookings Institution, examines Americans’ attitudes about the leading candidates for president, potential support for third-party candidates, and the issues that define these partisan and cultural fault lines. The survey illuminates Americans’ concerns about the overall direction of the country, the state of the economy and inflation, public education, social connectedness, and the broader health of our democracy. Additionally, the survey highlights attitudes about abortion, gender and LGBTQ issues, immigration, foreign policy, Christian nationalism, and support for QAnon, among other issues.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, and Democracy
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

198. Gezegensel Siyaset Manifestosunun Ardından Yeşil Teorinin Uluslararası İlişkilerdeki Konumu

Author:
Didem Buhari Gulmez and Ertan Güler
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
Bu makale, Uluslararası İlişkilerde Yeşil Teoriyi daha iyi konumlandırabilmek için Gezegensel Siyaset Manifestosu üzerine yapılan güncel tartışmalara ışık tutmaktadır. Özellikle, Yeşil Teorinin disiplindeki konumuna ilişkin çalışmalarda görülen “sorun çözen teorilere karşı eleştirel teoriler” ikiliğini aşmayı hedeflemektedir. Buna yönelik olarak, Yeşil Teoriyi Uluslararası İlişkilerin ana akım teorileriyle kıyaslamak yerine, Gezegensel Siyaset Manifestosu perspektifinden Yeşil Teorinin İnşacılık, Normatif Teori, Postyapısalcılık, Eleştirel Teori, Postkolonyalizm ve Feminizm gibi başlıca eleştirel teorilerle arasındaki karmaşık ilişkiye odaklanmaktadır.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, Critical Theory, Green Theory, Ecocentrism, and Ecofeminism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

199. From Media-Party Linkages to Ownership Concentration Causes of Cross-National Variation in Media Outlets’ Economic Positioning

Author:
Erik Neimanns and Nils Blossey
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:
A sizable literature on media bias suggests that media coverage is frequently biased towards certain political and economic positions. However, we know little about what drives variation in political and ideological bias in news coverage across countries. In this paper, we argue that increasingly commercialized and concentrated media markets are likely to be associated with media coverage leaning more favorably towards economically more rightwing positions. Media bias should reflect the preferences of media owners and should be a result of a reduced diversity of news media content. In contrast, where media outlets continue to be oriented more closely along partisan lines, often referred to as political parallelism, bias on economic issues should be more likely to cancel out at the aggregate level. To test these claims, we combine expert survey data on partisan attachments of media outlets, party ideologies, and media ownership concentration for twenty-four European countries. Results from multilevel regression models support our theoretical expectations. With media framing potentially affecting individual-level preferences and perceptions, high and rising levels of media ownership concentration may help to explain why governments in the affluent Western democracies often do remarkably little to counter trends of rising income inequality.
Topic:
Politics, Media, News Analysis, and Bias
Political Geography:
Europe

200. Factsheet: Karl Nehammer

Author:
Karl Nehammer
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Karl Nehammer is the current Chancellor of Austria. Three days prior to being sworn in as Chancellor on December 6, 2021, he became the managing chairman of the Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP). Previously, he served as the Minister of the Interior from 2020 to 2021, General Secretary of the ÖVP from 2018 to 2020, and a member of the National Council from 2017 to 2020. He has been a key figure in supporting anti-Muslim policies.
Topic:
Politics, Domestic Politics, Islamophobia, Muslims, and Karl Nehammer
Political Geography:
Europe and Austria