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1. Dreams Deferred in Xi’s New Year’s Speech

Author:
Arran Hope
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Xi Jinping’s New Year’s speech hinted at weaknesses in the People’s Republic of China. The speech emphasized the many hardships that people are currently facing at home while acknowledging fears about a turbulent external environment. Xi did not mention “national rejuvenation” and he conceded that the “China dream” was far from being realized. Doubling down on the ideology of struggle, a hard work ethic, and enforcing nationalist sentiment as crucial factors for escaping the current malaise, Xi’s speech suggested a shortage of tangible solutions for the country’s problems.
Topic:
Politics, Ideology, Xi Jinping, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:
China and Asia

2. Navigating the Challenges of Environmentalism in an Increasingly Authoritarian Iraq

Author:
Taif Alkhudary
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
There has been a marked increase in environmental activism in Iraq in recent years. This shift has taken place in the context of what has often been presented as a new stability, due to the absence of active armed conflict in the country since 2017. However, as “stabilization” efforts give way to “development”, Iraq is also coming to terms with the slow violence of protracted wars,1 an astronomical and rapid rise in oil production, and the impacts of climate change – most visible in the widespread incidences of pollution and public health crises, as well as in the drying up of ancient rivers and lakes and desertification, which is destroying livelihoods and causing mass migration across the country.2 The rise in interest in the environment has also come in the aftermath of the 2019 Tishreen uprising, to which the government and associated militias have responded with a widespread crackdown on freedom of expression and assembly, making any form of activism increasingly dangerous. This study examines how self-identified environmentalists active in Iraq interact with this complex context and the challenges they face. To navigate the increased authoritarianism of the Iraqi state, this research finds that environmentalists tend to adopt small, carefully framed initiatives that are usually presented as supporting the government in solving some of the environmental issues it faces, as opposed to being overtly adversarial. This approach also means that Iraq’s environmental movements lack autonomy, and that certain issues – particularly those that might harm the business interests or standing of the political elite – remain off-limits. As a result, environmental initiatives in Iraq tend to make shallow interventions that do little to address the root causes of environmental degradation or to mitigate the effects of climate change. These dynamics are compounded by the funding structures of donor organizations, who prefer to award grants to small-scale, time-bound projects the outcomes of which can be easily measured. Environmental actors active in Iraq have also begun to form coalitions with the government, the private sector, and other members of civil society, such as political activists. However, this remains in its infancy and is often limited to a small number of individuals acting alone. Coalition building remains a substantial challenge and is often actively blocked by the government, used by corporations for greenwashing, and sees the efforts of environmental activists and organizations coopted by politicians for their own political and financial ends. The findings of the current study corroborate and extend the work of Wiktor-Mach et al. on Kurdistan, especially their characterization of environmental activism in the region as “a specific type of activism that does not question mainstream policies and practices but intends to push for change within existing systems and that has a cooperative character”.3 However, it is also important to note (as will be discussed in greater detail in this paper) that in Federal Iraq, the uptake of such non-confrontational tactics is the result of the increased crackdown on civil society post-Tishreen, which has raised the stakes and dangers of more adversarial work. In addition, while in Kurdistan episodes of mass contention are relatively rare and often focus on issues such as salaries and service provision, in Federal Iraq there has been at least one episode of mass mobilization in response to environmental issues in recent years in the form of the 2018 water protests in Basra.
Topic:
Environment, Politics, Authoritarianism, and Activism
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

3. Factsheet: Randy Fine

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Randy Fine is an American Republican politician and currently serves as a Senator for the Florida state government. Before joining politics, he served as a gambling industry executive. Fine has been described as an “unhinged bigot,” “controversial,” “divisive,” and “abrasive.” He has a history of making anti-Muslim, anti-Palestinian, and racist comments, and has threatened two Muslim women members of Congress. In 2024, Fine announced he would be running for the US Congress and was endorsed by President Donald Trump.
Topic:
Politics, Islamophobia, Republican Party, and Randy Fine
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

4. Another Transatlanticism Is Possible: Europe’s Moment in Latin America amid Trump’s Return

Author:
Raffaele Piras
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Donald Trump’s return to the White House has reignited his hallmark “America First” agenda, with significant consequences for Latin America. During his inaugural address, Trump emphasised the need to regain US control of the Panama Canal, framing it as a cornerstone of national security amidst heightened competition with China.[1] This rhetoric marks the continuation of a policy approach that relies on coercion and transactional diplomacy to achieve US objectives. While Trump’s focus on Latin America will undoubtedly reshape the region’s geopolitical dynamics, it also presents a strategic opportunity for the European Union to strengthen its role as a stabilising force and reliable partner.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, European Union, Institutions, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
Europe, Latin America, North America, and United States of America

5. What’s next for Pakistan after election shock?

Author:
Tamkinet Karim, Syed Mohammed Ali, and Alistair Taylor
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
On this week's episode Tamkinet Karim, Syed Mohammad Ali, and Alistair Taylor discuss the results of Pakistan’s Feb. 8 elections and where things might be headed moving forward. Over the past two years, Pakistan has gone through a particularly turbulent period, following the removal of Imran Khan’s government in a no-confidence vote in April 2022 — a time marked by political instability, intense polarization, a worsening economic crisis, and growing threats to internal security.
Topic:
Security, Politics, Elections, Polarization, Economic Crisis, and Instability
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

6. Antisemitism and Islamophobia in the US political discourse on Israel/Palestine

Author:
Sahar Aziz and Mitchell Plitnick
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Sahar Aziz and Mitchell Plitnick discuss their study "Presumptively Antisemitic: Islamophobic Tropes in the Palestine Israel Discourse" with MEI's Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs Program Director Khaled Elgindy.
Topic:
Politics, Islamophobia, Anti-Semitism, and Discourse
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, North America, and United States of America

7. The Party and the People: Chinese Politics in the 21st Century

Author:
Orhan Çifçi
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
In his book, The Party and the People: Chinese Politics in the 21st Century, Bruce Dickson, Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at George Washington University, thoroughly scrutinizes China’s domestic political system and the inner structure of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Dickson largely limits his primer to the post-Mao period, with each of the book’s sections answering specific research questions: “What Keeps the Party in Power?”, “How Are Leaders Chosen?”, “How Are Policies Made?”, “Does China Have a Civil Society?”, “Do Political Protests Threaten Political Stability?”, “Why Does the Party Fear Religion?”, “How Nationalistic Is China?” and “Will China Become Democratic?”. Each question he seeks answers to sheds light on the relationship between the CCP and Chinese society. Dickson argues that the CCP has exercised unopposed authority throughout the country since 1949 despite many elite conflicts, economic catastrophes and social unrests. Nevertheless, the party has not always resorted to repressive methods to stay in power. Rather, it is the author’s main argument that the main survival policy is the party’s ability to be responsive to the demands of Chinese people. For Dickson, the repression-responsiveness dichotomy is the core strategy that made it possible for the CCP to rule China as a single party for decades.
Topic:
Politics, History, Book Review, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
China and Asia

8. Politicization, Ratification of International Agreements, and Domestic Political Competition in Non-Democracies: The Case of Iran and the Paris Climate Accords

Author:
Reşat Bayer and Bijan Tafazzoli
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
While some degree of competition is present in many authoritarian regimes, the implications of such controlled competition on international issues have not received much consideration, including towards international environmental accords. We attempt to rectify this through a framework where we focus on internal political competition in a hybrid, nondemocratic system where national elections are held regularly. Specifically, we argue that the presence of multiple actors competing in elections in nondemocratic settings results in them assuming positions on various issues, justifying their positions, and attempting to mobilize their supporters with considerable implications for international environmental policies. We display our argument in the context of Iranian debates on the ratification of the Paris Climate Accords. Our findings demonstrate that the competing Iranian sides rely on different justifications for their environmental positions, resulting in extensive (negative) competitions of rhetoric where the international dimension emerges as an important feature in the internal competition. Overall, we show that political competition within non-democracies is likely to add to the complexity of international (environmental) negotiations and cooperation.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Politics, Treaties and Agreements, Sanctions, Authoritarianism, Elections, Paris Agreement, Narrative, and Regime Survival
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

9. Assessing the Impact of Turkey’s Quest for Status Since the 2000s on Foreign Policy Change: Transformational or Transactional?

Author:
Samiratou Dipama and Emel Parlar Dal
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
This paper delves into an assessment of the impact of Turkey’s quest for status since the 2000s on changes in its foreign policy. In other words, how has Turkey’s search for status influenced its foreign policy stances since the 2000s? And can we consider the changes in Turkey’s foreign policy change transformational or transactional in essence? In this vein, this paper will make essential contributions to the existing literature on Turkey’s status-seeking strategies by using specific cases to link them to changes in Turkey’s foreign policy and assessing the extent to which they are transactional or transformational. The examination of this topic is all the more important in light of internal developments in Turkey, such as democratic backsliding and economic crisis, as well external factors such as its tense relationships with the EU, its rapprochement with Russia and China, and its increasingly proactive profile in regional crises. This paper critically assesses the pattern of Turkey’s foreign policy change from transformational and transactional perspectives.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, Status, and International Politics
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

10. Challenges to Transatlantic Digital Infrastructure: An EU Perspective

Author:
Anselm Küsters, André Wolf, and Eleonora Poli
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Recent disruptions in the Baltic Sea and elsewhere highlight the integral role of digital and physical conduits such as gas pipelines, telecommunications cables and undersea data cables in maintaining European connectivity and security. Overall, the EU’s responses to emerging challenges to its digital sovereignty, particularly from China and Russia, aim to enhance the security and resilience of its digital landscape, from the Global Gateway Strategy to the Gaia-X project. However, the complexity of the submarine cable infrastructure requires a broader and more holistic assessment of the opportunities and obstacles to ensuring the uninterrupted flow of information across borders. Ultimately, a concerted transatlantic effort is needed to strengthen the backbone of Europe’s digital infrastructure against both man-made and natural adversities, thereby securing a future where sovereignty and resilience are paramount for both the EU and the US.
Topic:
International Political Economy, Politics, Infrastructure, European Union, Institutions, Transatlantic Relations, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

11. Teach In on Political Zionism with Dr. Zachary Foster

Author:
Zachary Foster
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:
Dr. Zachary Foster will deliver a presentation about the origins, history, and contemporary consequences of political Zionism.
Topic:
Politics, History, and Zionism
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

12. Episode 04: Exporting the War on Terror: Islamophobia in Asia

Author:
Sahar Aziz and Khaled A. Beydoun
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:
Host Sahar Aziz and Arizona State University Sandra Day O'Connor College of Law Professor Khaled Beydoun discuss the latest legal and political developments in the troubling rise of global Islamophobia in India, China, and other Asian countries. The conversation is informed by Professor Beydoun’s new book The New Crusades: Islamophobia and the Global War on Muslims.
Topic:
Politics, Law, Discrimination, Islamophobia, War on Terror, and Muslims
Political Geography:
China, India, and Asia

13. Episode 02: Consistent Partiality: U.S. Foreign Policy on Palestine-Israel

Author:
Sahar Aziz, Peter Beinart, and Sarah Whitson
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:
Although the Biden administration talks about supporting democracy and human rights, it has maintained unconditional US support for Israel even as human rights organizations label it an apartheid state. What are the political and ideological foundations of America’s hostility to Palestinian freedom? And what would it take to change them? Does the US’s unconditional support for Israel serve America’s national interests? Host Sahar Aziz addresses these questions with Professor Peter Beinart and human rights attorney Sarah Leah Whitson.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Apartheid, Human Rights, Politics, Democracy, and Ideology
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America

14. Justice for Some: Law and the Question of Palestine with Professor Noura Erakat

Author:
Noura Erakat
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:
Justice for Some offers a new approach to understanding the Palestinian struggle for freedom, told through the power and control of international law. Focusing on key junctures across a century-long arc —from the Balfour Declaration in 1917 to present-day wars in Gaza- the book shows how the strategic deployment of law has shaped current conditions. Over the past century, the law has done more to advance Israel's interests than the Palestinians'. But this outcome was never inevitable. Law is politics, and its meaning and application depend on the political intervention of states and people alike. Within the law, change is possible. International law can serve the cause of freedom when it is mobilized in support of a political movement. Presenting the promise and risk of international law, Justice for Some calls for renewed action and attention to the Question of Palestine.
Topic:
International Law, Politics, History, Political Movements, Palestinians, and Book Talk
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

15. Episode 01: Except for Palestine: The Limits of Progressive Politics

Author:
Mark Lamont Hill and Mitchell Plitnick
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:
Scholar Marc Lamont Hill and Israel-Palestine expert Mitchell Plitnick spotlight how holding fast to one-sided and unwaveringly pro-Israel policies reflects the truth-bending grip of authoritarianism on both Israel and the United States. 'Except for Palestine' deftly argues that progressives and liberals who oppose regressive policies on immigration, racial justice, gender equality, LGBTQ rights, and other issues must extend these core principles to the oppression of Palestinians.
Topic:
Human Rights, Politics, Authoritarianism, Inequality, LGBT+, Liberalism, Progressivism, Gender, Palestinians, and Racial Justice
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America

16. Exchange on Nick Onuf’s ‘Metaphoricizing Modernity,’ Part I—Dangerous Beginnings, Peripheral (Re)Beginnings: A Reconfiguration of Nick Onuf’s Constructivism

Author:
Victor Coutinho Lage
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contexto Internacional
Institution:
Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:
Nick Onuf’s constructivism is one of the most important contributions to the field of international relations in what regards the interchange between social and political theories, and philosophy. In this text, I engage with Onuf’s body of work taken as a whole. The guiding thread of the problematization I propose is woven through the attention to how Onuf’s craft and creative undertaking sets certain beginnings in the construction of his framework, and how setting them has important implications for (the conception of) ‘politics’. I would argue that Onuf’s conception of politics is sustained on two central beginnings: the conception of humans as ‘rational agents’ and the framing of what has come to be called ‘modernity’. This way, I emphasize what seems to me the most enduring contribution his body of work can provide not only to the field of international relations, but also to contemporary social and political theories more generally. The first section outlines the relation Onuf establishes between rules and rule, while the following two sections deal, in turn, with his conceptions of ‘agency’ and the ‘modern world’. My goal in these first three sections is to reconfigure Onuf’s constructivism. The fourth and final section moves ahead, giving a step further – perhaps too far, perhaps too radical –, paving a critical engagement with his work through peripheral (re)begininngs.
Topic:
Politics, Constructivism, Rationality, Modernity, and Periphery
Political Geography:
Global Focus

17. Unequal Burdens: Corruption’s Impacts on People with Intersectional Identities in Lebanon

Author:
Elizabeth Reiter Dettmer and Jay Feghali
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
Abstract:
Lebanon, once celebrated for its cultural vibrancy and economic prosperity, now grapples with embedded corruption and dire prospects for reform. Lebanon’s multiple layers of social, confessional, ideological, economic, and cultural identities are governed by varied laws or rules. This creates space for corruption to combine with discriminatory practices. This assessment, Unequal Burdens: Corruption's Impacts on People with Intersectional Identities in Lebanon, focuses on corruption and its effects to measure how perceptions and experiences differ among marginalized groups and to identify any unique effects that people with intersectional identities encounter, with a focus on perspectives from outside Beirut, including Tripoli, Akkar, Baalbek, Bekaa, and surrounding areas. In 2020, IFES conducted an intersectionality assessment, Identity, and Politics in Lebanon, which found that marginalized groups in Lebanon experience multiple levels of exclusion based on social identities, including gender, disability, age, religion, sexual orientation, and refugee status. Individuals with intersectional identities are even more significantly impacted by the complexity and inherent inequality of Lebanon’s political and social systems. Lebanon has 18 officially recognized religious sects that are governed by 15 personal status laws enforced by religious courts. Social identity and the role of religion in politics both contribute to conflict and lack of consensus. These are compounded by socio-economic factors, including an imbalance in access to services – especially outside the capital, low exposure to economic and educational opportunities, limited inclusion in public service, and youth unemployment. Legal obstacles created by personal status laws and the discriminatory application of other laws seriously hinder the ability of marginalized groups to act as full and equal citizens. In early 2020, the Lebanese government introduced a new anti-corruption law and began work on a new National Anti-Corruption Strategy. Despite the new laws, Transparency International’s 2022 Corruption Perceptions Index placed Lebanon 150th of 180 countries, a decline from its rank of 128th in 2012. IFES’ assessment found that corruption is disproportionately impacting people from marginalized groups. Research identified the following key findings: Corruption on the Community Level; Corruption on the Individual Level; Impact of Corruption and Discrimination on Marginalized Groups; Impacts of Corruption on Civic Participation; Corruption as a Facilitating Factor for Participation in Public Life; Corruption as a Hindering Factor for Participation in Public Life.
Topic:
Corruption, Politics, Reform, and Intersectionality
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

18. Mitigating the Political Cost of Financial Crisis with Blame Avoidance Discourse: The Case of Turkey

Author:
Büşra Söylemez-karakoç
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
How do centralized governments mitigate the political cost of severe financial crises? The economic voting scholarship has established that the clarity of responsibility, i.e., government accountability for economic conditions to the mass public, is a necessity for electoral reward or punishment for economic performance. On the one hand, political centralization, which reduces the number of veto players, may increase the visibility of the role of the executive in policy success or failure. On the other hand, it allows an uncontested blame avoidance discourse, especially when accompanied with democratic backsliding. Furthermore, the recent backlash against globalization has enabled blame shifting to international actors in many countries. Against this theoretical framework, we comparatively analyze the responsibility attribution discourses for the 1994, 2001, and 2018-2022 financial crises in the statements of incumbent presidents, ministers, and parliament members of Turkey. We find that while blame avoidance discursive strategies have been attempted in all three cases, the responsibility attribution for the 1994 and 2001 crises mostly targeted the executive. In contrast, for the ongoing crisis, the responsibility discourse is dominated with blaming international political economy factors, creating ambiguity, and targeting domestic non-governmental actors.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, Politics, Financial Crisis, Voting, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

19. The Socio-Economic Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Syrian Refugees in Turkey

Author:
Fulya Memişoğlu, Altan Özkil, and Tuna Kılınç
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
Building upon empirical research, this study examines the socio-economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on Syrian refugees in Turkey by analyzing its implications on employment, livelihood opportunities, and social cohesion. More specifically, it focuses on the experiences of Syrian refugees to examine the ways in which they exert their agency to cope with the structural constraints when faced with ‘multiple crises’ in host countries, intersecting with the dynamics of a ‘normalized refugee crisis’. Our findings from fieldwork conducted in the top six refugee-hosting cities reveal that loss of jobs, limited access to decent work, increased dependency on external financial assistance, and social exclusion have been some of the most acute effects of the pandemic on refugees. Meanwhile, the perceived effects that refugees have on the host community’s welfare trigger problems that impede social cohesion. All in all, the study intends to highlight the far-reaching effects of the pandemic beyond its direct health implications by addressing the structural vulnerability of refugees and the importance of providing an enabling environment for socio-economic self-reliance.
Topic:
Migration, Politics, Refugees, Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

20. The Open Gap in the “Free and Open” Indo-Pacific

Author:
Kenneth Gofigan Kuper
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
"For many of us in Guam, a free and open Indo-Pacific cannot be fully accomplished without resolving the paradox of the United States maintaining a modern-day colony even though the local government has supported moving forward with a decolonization process."
Topic:
Politics, Decolonization, Strategy, and Colonization
Political Geography:
China, United States of America, Indo-Pacific, and Guam

21. Enhancing Military Diplomacy in the Indo-Pacific: A US Foreign Area Officer’s Perspective

Author:
Matthew House
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Lt. Col. Matthew House, US Army Foreign Area Officer and EWC Adjunct Fellow, underscores “the pivotal role of military diplomacy in orchestrating significant global events...” and highlights “the invaluable expertise of [Foreign Area Officers] in managing complex international relations."
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Education, Politics, and Military Diplomacy
Political Geography:
North Korea, Vietnam, Southeast Asia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

22. South Korean Perspectives on China-Russia Collaboration in the Arctic

Author:
Young Kil Park
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Dr. Young Kil Park, Research Fellow at Korea Maritime Institute, explains that "While the immediate impact of China-Russia collaboration in the Arctic on South Korea is limited, it remains wary of the long-term implications for its economic and security interests."
Topic:
Security, Economics, Politics, Bilateral Relations, and Collaboration
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Arctic

23. Race Politics and Colonial Legacies: France, Africa and the Middle East

Author:
Hisham Aïdi, Marc Lynch, Zachariah Mampilly, Baba Adou, and Oumar Ba
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
In February 2020 – the eve of the COVID-19 pandemic – the Project on Middle East Political Science held a preliminary meeting at Columbia University in New York to explore the origins of the Africa-Middle East divides that treat North Africa as part of the Middle East and neglect states such as Sudan and Mauritania. Columbia was an appropriate place to begin such a dialogue. Two decades ago, when two of us (Aidi and Mampilly) were graduate students at Columbia, the Institute of African Studies was in serious crisis. The Ugandan political theorist Mahmood Mamdani arrived and launched an initiative to decolonize the study of Africa to counter Hegel’s partition of Africa by transcending the Saharan and red Sea divides, and by underscoring Africa’s links to Arabia, Asia and the New World. To that end, we co-organized a second conference on racial formations in Africa and the Middle East looking at race-making across these two regions comparatively, including the border zones often left out of both African and Middle Eastern Studies: the Sudans, Amazigh-speaking areas in the Sahel, Arabic speaking areas on the Swahili coast and Zanzibar. This workshop represents the third in our series of transregional studies across the Africa-Middle East divide.
Topic:
Politics, Post Colonialism, Race, History, Colonialism, Islamophobia, and Racialization
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, Europe, Sudan, Middle East, France, Libya, Lebanon, Syria, Tunisia, Mauritania, and United States of America

24. Washington's and Taiwan's Diverging Interests Doesn't Make War Imminent

Author:
Hargisl Shirley Martey
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Third Way
Abstract:
We are a month from the Taiwan 2024 election that sent shockwaves around the world. President-elect, Lai Ching-te (賴清德), dared to utter the world ‘independence” in a strike against the longstanding One China Policy (一个中国政策) in his successful campaign to lead the nation. The election was important enough for an increasingly assertive President Xi Jinping (习近平出席) to try (and fail) to influence the election’s outcome. Xi has been rattling cages for the last several years and has made no secret of his desire to bring Taiwan under Beijing’s thumb without explicitly ruling out the use of force. Meanwhile, a busy President Biden has had his hands full keeping allies committed to Ukraine, battling Putin-sympathetic members of Congress, while also dealing with cascading crises in Israel and the Middle East. With that as our backdrop, does Lai’s election, Xi’s frustration, and Biden’s preoccupation mean we are closer to conflict in the Taiwan Strait? In this brief analysis we argue that at present the answer is “no.” And we make this call by looking at the vantage points and early actions of each country. For America, the Taiwan election has put the country on alert. For Taiwan, domestic concerns are mainly driving voters – not cross-Strait policy. For the People’s Republic of China (PRC; 中华人民共和国), ignore the rhetoric because they’ve followed their Taiwan election disappointment by returning to their standard playbook.1 But stay tuned…. perhaps they’re saving the fireworks for Lai’s May 20 inauguration.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, National Security, Politics, Elections, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, North America, and United States of America

25. Fashionable Politics: How Italian Leaders Transform into Successful Brands in Contemporary Communication

Author:
Daniele Battista
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
Political communication is inherently intertwined with social dynamics and cannot be considered a separate field of study. Symbolic elements, slogans, and the leadership of political figures have permeated human history, influencing and often determining political action. This study has analyzed the phenomenon of personalization as compelling evidence in the field of contemporary political communication. The analysis is based on a study of Italian cases, aiming to provide an in-depth insight into the strategies adopted by political parties to personalize their leaders’ image and engage voters. In particular, the focus has primarily been on party symbols incorporating the leader’s name. The research was conducted to identify party personalization mechanisms and their impact on public opinion. The result highlighted the role of political communication in asserting the individual as a brand at the expense of the party organization, with significant implications for democracy and political participation.
Topic:
Politics, Communications, Identity, Marketing, and Personal Brand
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

26. The Politics behind the EU-Rwanda Deal(s) and its Consequences

Author:
Kristof Titeca
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
On the 14th of October, the news emerged that the EU is in the final stages of a discussion to award €20 million to the Rwandan army for its operations in Mozambique – where it is fighting insurgents in the oil-rich Gabo Delgado province. It would be the second time in two years that the EU awards this amount under the European Peace Facility (EPF): it also did so in December 2022. At that time, the decision was met with anger in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), as it was already documented by the UN how the Rwandan Defense Forces (RDF) were supporting the M23 rebellion in Eastern DRC. In the meantime, this support has become clearer, with the last report from the UN Group of Experts from June 2024 extensively documenting the RDF operations with M23 in Eastern DRC. The news of potentially another €20 million is therefore met with anger in Congolese politics and society, primarily directed at the EU. It is a question which puzzles many: why does the EU want to award €20 million to the Rwandan army, in the midst of its violations of international law in Eastern DRC? This piece will unpack this question and reflect on the consequences for the regional dynamics and the EU.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, International Law, Politics, and European Union
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Rwanda

27. Uganda’s Chess Game in Eastern DRC: With or Without M23?

Author:
Kristof Titeca
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Uganda has various economic, political and security interests in Eastern DRC. The latter is for example a vital export market for Ugandan products, and an important source of gold, Uganda’s most important export product. In this situation, a careful tactical game is played, in which Kampala seeks to protect these interests in Eastern DRC – for example from Kigali. This does not only involve a clear engagement with Kinshasa, but to a lesser extent also with M23. This is particularly the case because M23 is expanding (and keeping) its territory; creating an incentive for regional actors to engage with them.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, and Democratic Republic of the Congo

28. The Yemen Review Quarterly: January-March 2024

Author:
Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Yemen’s political and economic situation worsened in the first months of the year as the impacts of the Red Sea crisis, which began in November, began to manifest themselves. Peace talks between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi group (Ansar Allah) were effectively placed on hold, and the United States broadened its response to the Houthi attacks, launching strikes alongside the UK against Houthi targets inside Yemen and designating the Houthis as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist group (SDGT), which came into effect on February 16. The designation could impact not only Houthi military and economic activities but also risks a further stranglehold on international humanitarian work in Houthi-run territories, as banks and exchange firms stop dealing with Sana’a-based entities. In late March, Houthi authorities issued a 100-rial coin to replace dilapidated notes, escalating the economic warfare between the two rival central banks. Denouncing the move as illegal, the Aden central bank branch prohibited the coins’ circulation, but the real fear is that this is a trial balloon for a series of currency roll-outs that will end with Sana’a printing its own banknotes, possibly with foreign help, as rebel authorities did in Libya in 2019. Prime Minister Maeen Abdelmalek Saeed finally stepped down, succeeded by Foreign Minister Ahmed Awadh bin Mubarak on February 5. Yemen’s ambassador in Riyadh, Shaya al-Zindani, was belatedly appointed to the vacant foreign minister post on March 26. Neither man is popular with the PLC. Combined with the government’s strained finances, this could hamper their effectiveness. Houthi attacks on foreign shipping and US-UK attacks continued more or less unabated, causing in one case the sinking of a ship carrying fertilizer and diesel fuel. US-UK airstrikes have killed at least 37 on the Houthi side, and reportedly some Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officers. After talks with Omani officials in Muscat in early April, the US Yemen envoy appeared to hold out hope of a resolution, suggesting the sanctions would be lifted if the attacks stopped – as tensions rose again between Iran and Israel, with possible implications for Yemen. Tensions also rose on frontlines inside Yemen as Houthi and government-aligned forces reinforced their military presence in several areas, including Hudaydah and Marib. The US-UK strikes also heightened the repressive atmosphere in Sana’a and elsewhere, as Houthi authorities cracked down in areas near mobile launch sites and introduced a new law against support for Israel that is already being used as another cudgel to crush dissent. Al-Qaeda’s Yemen branch announced the loss of its leader Khaled Batarfi in March, who died after several months of illness. He was replaced by Saad al-Awlaqi, a senior Yemeni figure with strong tribal ties in Shabwa who is popular among younger members of the group but whose ties with Iran-based Saif al-Adel, the de facto leader of the global organization, appear to be tense. Al-Qaeda also lost Saif al-Adel’s son, known as Ibn al-Madani, reportedly as a result of a fire in the place where he was staying in Marib, and the group’s lead drone expert Khaled al-Sana’ani also died in an apparent traffic incident – incidents that have raised speculation of possible internal skulduggery as Al-Awlaqi settles into his new role.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Politics, and Houthis
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia

29. The Yemen Review Quarterly: July-September 2024

Author:
Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
On July 19, a Houthi drone reached Tel Aviv, killing one person and wounding ten, the first time the Houthi group (Ansar Allah) has inflicted casualties in an attack against Israel. Israel responded the next day with airstrikes on the port of Hudaydah, destroying infrastructure and fuel stores and killing six workers. Dozens of others were hospitalized with severe burns. The Houthis unsuccessfully targeted Tel Aviv again on September 15, and Israel undertook further airstrikes on port and power facilities in Hudaydah governorate two weeks later, killing four and injuring 40. There is concern that the strikes will interrupt the flow of humanitarian aid through Hudaydah and that the loss of fuel reserves could lead to shortages in Houthi-held areas.
Topic:
Security, Politics, Natural Disasters, Economy, and Houthis
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, and Red Sea

30. Trump’s tinderbox: US politics and the next war in the Balkans

Author:
Adnan Ćerimagić and Majda Ruge
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Over recent years, Serbia’s government and Serb nationalists elsewhere in the Western Balkans have increased their revisionist agitation in the region. They recently adopted an “all-Serb declaration” that seeks to overturn the post-Dayton settlement in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and claims Kosovo as an inseparable part of Serbia. Though some international observers have criticised the Biden administration for its concessions to Aleksandar Vucic, Serbia’s president, it deserves credit for containing Belgrade’s ability to realise its ambitions and preventing two worst-case scenarios: the disintegration of the Bosnian state and armed escalation between Serbia and Kosovo. That fragile status-quo would come under significant threat from a new Trump presidency in the US. Among other risks, his second administration may seek to reverse sanctions that have constrained separatist appetites among Bosnian Serbs and to revive dangerous proposals for a Serbia-Kosovo land swap. Peace in the region is at stake. Particularly in the event of a Trump victory on 5 November, the EU should prepare a package of new deterrence mechanisms that it can apply in the Western Balkans independently from the US and spoiler member states like Hungary. And in either eventuality, it should take more responsibility for stabilising the region.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, Donald Trump, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Serbia, Balkans, North America, and United States of America

31. Amérique latine. L'année politique 2023

Author:
David Recondo
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:
Amérique latine. L’Année politique 2023 est une publication de l’Observatoire politique de l’Amérique latine et des Caraïbes (Opalc) du CERI-Sciences Po. Il prolonge la démarche du site www.sciencespo.fr/opalc en offrant des clés de compréhension d’un continent en proie à des transformations profondes.
Topic:
Civil Society, Crime, Democratization, Politics, Governance, Urbanization, European Union, Multilateralism, Regional Integration, Memory, and Social Policy
Political Geography:
Latin America

32. Regards sur l’Eurasie. L’année politique 2023

Author:
Anne De Tinguy
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:
Looking into Eurasia : the year in politics provides some keys to understand the events and phenomena that have left their imprint on a region that has undergone major mutation since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991: the post-soviet space. With a cross-cutting approach that is no way claims to be exhaustive, this study seeks to identify the key drivers, the regional dynamics and the underlying issues at stak. This volume is devoted to the war in Ukraine
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Organization, Migration, Politics, History, Diaspora, European Union, Economy, Post-Soviet Space, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Eurasia

33. Populism and Income Inequality: Is Income Inequality in Türkiye a Political Choice?

Author:
Dila Asfuroğlu
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
The argument that national inequalities are political and thereby driven by political decisions implies that income distribution is not merely an economic phenomenon but also a political one. Hence, this study explores the impact of populist governance on income inequality in Türkiye. In doing so, this study addresses whether income inequality in Türkiye is a political choice, drawing on economic, social, and political data over the years 2008- 2022. According to the results of the quantitative analysis, the share of income for the working class has fallen, the income gap between the lowest and highest deciles of the working class has narrowed, and the potential for fiscal interventions to reduce income inequality is not realised. In return, the income inequality that existed in 2008 has persisted at the same magnitude over the years. In other words, even if income inequality is not an explicit political choice, the populist governance in Türkiye between 2008 and 2022 has chosen not to contribute to the solution to this prevailing inequality.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, Income Inequality, and Populism
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

34. Red Lines, Where to Find Them, and How to Work with Them: Civil Society, the State, and Political Change in Morocco

Author:
Francesco Colin
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Who is included in “civil society” and which function it is supposed to perform – particularly in the realm of political action – remain largely debated (Edwards 2014).1 On one hand, achieving political change, and democratization in particular, has become an essential element of civil society in non-democratic regimes after the so-called “third wave of democratization” (Ibrahim 2015: 46–47). On the other, the state’s increasing control of civil society’s space for action has raised attention to the fact that states rely on these spaces to stabilize a given political order (Poppe and Wolff 2017). Even in established democracies, the increasing “politicization” of civil society action has been a key driver of the restrictions on its space for action (as Hummel 2022 showed in the case of Germany, for instance). In Morocco, the monarchy’s posture towards civil society has been ambiguous, to say the least.2 Beyond the analytical insights that stress the regime’s efforts to tame this sector, this paper acknowledges that civil society’s growing ability to intervene in the public sphere prompted a redefinition of the monarchy’s strategy towards this sector (Sater 2007). In this context, palace-led civil society development initiatives such as the “National Initiative for Human Development” (launched in 2005) not only testify to the importance that the state attributes to this sector of society, but also allow the state to reinforce its control over civil society at the local level (Bergh 2012). With more than 240,000 associations officially registered in Morocco, the government’s plan to develop a new official “strategy” for civil society further corroborates the state’s strong and continued interest in the structuring and control of civil society’s space for action (Wail El Karmouni 2023).3
Topic:
Civil Society, Politics, and Activism
Political Geography:
North Africa and Morocco

35. The Role of Civil Society During Elections In Cameroon

Author:
Guy Beaudry Jengu Jengu
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
In 2024, 19 African countries are organizing elections (1). More than half of these elections will take place during the last quarter of the year. In French-speaking African countries, more or less violent post-electoral crises (2) are quite common, and similar patterns observed. On one hand, the democratic openings of the 1990s either transformed single-party systems into ruling parties or brought former military personnel to power. On the other hand, the political landscape lacks robust policy platforms and ideological depth (3), and the vibrancy of civil society has rarely persisted past the 2000s. Yet, Cameroon currently has more than 50,000 entities claiming represent civil society (4). It is this civil society that is the focus of this analysis. First, the question of defining African civil society must be addressed, as its conceptualization outside of African democratic contexts and its ubiquitous usage in media make it a somewhat identifiable yet difficult to precisely define phenomenon (5). For the purposes of this work, civil society refers to an “autonomous associative sector, independent from the state” (6). Following Hegel, we distinguish it from political society, recognizing its intermediary position between prominent political actors and families (7). How does civil society deploy itself in Cameroon during the electoral period? The electoral period is divided into three distinct periods: before the election, on the day of the election, and after the election. More than 30 years after the advent of pluralist elections and multipartyism, this work aims to analyze the political, institutional and social logics that inform the practices of civil society during these moments, based on the events of the last presidential election. The objective is to uncover the actual repertoire of action employed by civil society actors during electoral periods in Cameroon, in order to identify ways to promote civic and citizen-oriented behaviors.
Topic:
Civil Society, Politics, and Elections
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

36. Understanding Elite Politics Through Relentless Research: Warren Sun’s Hua Guofeng Nianpu, Chronology of Hua Guofeng (1971–1981)

Author:
Frederick C. Teiwes
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
China Studies Centre, The University of Sydney
Abstract:
This Working Paper is a pre-publication review of an immense documentary collection prepared over the past 25 years by Warren Sun, Adjunct Associate Professor at Monash University and Affiliate Member of the Sydney CSC. It is based on the intellectual premise that elite politics in the CCP cannot be understood without deep penetration into the details of political decision-making and conflict. In its absence, simplistic narratives emerge and become widely accepted, especially when the Party itself is creating the basis for the narrative. This is most prevalent for the immediate post-Mao period as a Hua Guofeng-Deng Xiaoping struggle between different ideological lines and in the profound misunderstanding of Hua as a limited, merely transitional political leader. Hua nianpu uses a wide range of sources to uncover details that contest such views. These include: the contemporary PRC public record; official documentary collections; internal Party documents including unpublished speeches and compendia of circulars at major Party meetings; memoirs, oral accounts, and recollections published in the PRC by or about leaders; studies by Party history scholars in PRC journals; more-adventurous books published in Hong Kong by Party historians and former officials; interviews with scholars and retired officials; and unique interviews with officials who worked as secretaries or as aides to very senior figures and their family members, especially members of Hua’s family. However, these sources have limitations that must be considered critically and discussed in terms of what they can and cannot provide. Taken together the detailed information compiled in Hua nianpu undermines central features of the accepted narrative, most notably by showing that the 1978 work conference and the subsequent Third Plenum were joint Hua-Deng ventures to advance modernization, and when unanticipated developments weakened Hua, Deng did not act against him. Instead, he worked to lower tensions and to return the focus to their original joint plan. Hua nianpu is a major basis for our joint book project, Hua Guofeng, Deng Xiaoping, and the Dismantling of Maoism. But this nianpu is entirely Professor Sun’s creation and exacting work. The target for submission of both these projects to their respective publishers is early 2025.
Topic:
Politics, History, Elites, Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and Hua Guofeng
Political Geography:
China and Asia

37. Ottoman Bureaucrats Educated at The Translation Chamber and Their Effects on The State Administration in Modern Ottoman Diplomacy

Author:
Sacide Nur Akkaya
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Novus Orbis: Journal of Politics & International Relations
Institution:
Department of International Relations, Karadeniz Technical University
Abstract:
In this study, it is aimed to present together the influence of the Ottoman bureaucrats, who were educated in the translation chamber (the institutions where modern Ottoman diplomacy was built) and promoted to important levels of the state, managing the high-level state mechanisms. In the Ottoman Empire, which was governed by the monarchy, the Sultan’s authority was considered the only valid power for centuries. This situation changed during the spread of the Western-centered modernisation process within the empire. In this process, where diplomatic behaviour altered, high-ranking Ottoman bureaucrats began to be very active in state administration, and their authority rose against the power of the sultan. It is important to consider this process in question, together with the important political issues of the period, in terms of giving a clearer meaning to the construction of modern Ottoman diplomacy. In this context, the role of the translation chamber in the formation of modern Ottoman diplomacy will be discussed first, and the political activities and ideological structure of eight statesmen who were educated in this chamber and played important roles in the high level of the state will be discussed within the framework of the important political issues of the period, according to the records in Ottoman archives.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Politics, History, Bureaucracy, Modernization, Translation, Ottoman Empire, and Administration
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

38. A Political and Cultural Glimpse Into America’s Future: Generation Z’s Views on Generational Change and the Challenges and Opportunities Ahead

Author:
PRRI Staff
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:
Members of Generation Z are coming into their own politically, socially, and culturally, bringing their values and viewpoints to their communities and workplaces, and to our nation’s political system. In addition to being the most racially and ethnically diverse generation in our nation’s history, Gen Z adults also identify as LGBTQ at much higher rates than older Americans. Like millennials, Gen Zers are also less likely than older generations to affiliate with an established religion. This report considers what sets members of Generation Z apart from older generations in terms of their political and cultural values, their faith in communities and political institutions, and their views on religion and the importance of diversity and inclusion in the nation’s democracy. The report is based on both the results of a national survey of all Americans, which includes oversamples of Generation Z — both Gen Z adults (ages 18–25) and Gen Z teens (13–17) — and on an analysis of ten virtual focus groups that included a wide cross section of Gen Z adults from across the United States.
Topic:
Politics, Public Opinion, Elections, and Generation Z
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

39. Creating More Inclusive Public Spaces Two Years Later

Author:
PRRI Staff
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:
In partnership with E Pluribus Unum, PRRI released a major national survey in 2022 examining American attitudes about the legacy of Confederate monuments and memorialization in public spaces. In 2024, PRRI interviewed more than 5,500 adults across the United States to revisit Americans’ attitudes on these topics two years later.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Inclusion, Public Space, Confederacy, and Memorials
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

40. Factsheet: Walter Rosenkranz

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Walter Rosenkranz is a long-standing politician of the far-right FPÖ. In 2024, he was elected First President of the National Council, which is the second most powerful office in Austria. Rosenkranz has a long history of making Islamophobic statements and policy proposals, and has transnational links with anti-Muslim actors.
Topic:
Politics, Islamophobia, Far Right, Walter Rosenkranz, and Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ)
Political Geography:
Europe and Austria

41. Factsheet: Rishi Sunak

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Rishi Sunak was the former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party, the first British-Indian to be prime minister and when elected, the youngest holder of the office in modern times. As leader of the party and the head of state, Sunak failed to tackle Islamophobia both within the party and amongst wider British society.
Topic:
Politics, Islamophobia, Political Parties, and Rishi Sunak
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

42. Factsheet: Amit Shah

Author:
Amit Shah
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Amit Anil Chandra Shah is the current Home Minister of India. He was formerly the Minister of State for Home Affairs in Gujarat, a period during which the state police faced accusations of extra-judicial killings. Shah is a close friend, confidant and is often referred to as the right-hand man of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Shah has used his political position to promote Hindu nationalist ideology. During his tenure as India’s Home Minister, he has introduced laws and undertaken measures that target Muslims, Christians, political opposition, civil society, journalists, and critics.
Topic:
Politics, Islamophobia, Hindu Nationalism, and Amit Shah
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

43. Ads and Editorials: How Pretreatment Reduces the Persuasiveness of Interest Group Advertisements

Author:
Matthew Lesenyie
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
Advertising studies commonly examine the effects of one-sided treatments. However, political communication campaigns are competitive environments where voters are likely to hear more than one perspective. Because of this dynamic, the persuasive effects of single-sided ads may be less likely to hold in a competitive environment. When respondents are exposed to arguments from both sides of a ballot proposition issue, can the disclosure of a credible group help an advertisement overcome prior opinions? I address this question using a randomized experiment that includes ballot proposition campaign ads. In the experiments, I manipulate the pretreatment environment by exposing some respondents to a newspaper editorial in order to provide them with prior opinions that might cause them to resist subsequent advertisements. I also vary the presence or absence of campaign finance disclosure within the advertisements. In all cases, the presence of a credible editorial is associated with a change in support for the initiative. However, the use of a credible campaign finance disclosure has a far less consistent effect. While campaign finance disclosures from credible groups can help counteract prior beliefs that citizens may hold, I find that the magnitude of these changes is somewhat small.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Campaign Finance, Advertising, and Interest Groups
Political Geography:
Global Focus

44. Tunisia’s Transformation Into a Transit Hub: Illegal Migration and Policy Dilemmas

Author:
Hamza Meddeb and Fakhreddine Louati
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Due to structural economic, climate, and social crises in the Sahel, Tunisia has emerged as a key transit point for sub-Saharan African migrants and asylum seekers aiming to reach Europe. This has fueled a migration economy in Tunisia. Caught between Tunisia’s attempts to leverage migration to pressure the European Union (EU) on the one hand and the EU’s securitization of migration on the other, sub-Saharan African migrants find themselves trapped in a complex web of challenges.
Topic:
Migration, Politics, Reform, European Union, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
North Africa and Tunisia

45. The Violent Politics of Bangladesh’s 2024 Elections

Author:
Pearl Pandya
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
Elections in Bangladesh have historically been marked by violence between the country’s two dominant political parties, the ruling Awami League (AL) and the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). The upcoming elections scheduled for 7 January are no different. Violence has already been on the rise in the months leading up to the elections, in which Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina will seek re-election for the fourth consecutive term. Much of the recent unrest has centered around concerns about the AL’s ability to hold a free and fair election. The BNP has called for the formation of a neutral caretaker government to administer the elections. The AL has rejected this demand, giving way to increased BNP-led demonstration events1 that have often turned violent. The BNP’s decision to boycott the elections, motivated by its misgivings over the election process, suggests that the results are likely to be contested, increasing the risk of post-electoral violence. As the AL looks set to hold onto power, violence within the party is also cause for concern. Competition for power among AL factions can be seen in post-election periods as rivals seek party and government appointments.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Violence, Political Parties, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
Bangladesh and South Asia

46. Red herrings: A model of attention-hijacking by politicians

Author:
Margot Belguise
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
Politicians often use “red herrings” to distract voters from scandals. When do such red herrings succeed? I develop a model in which an incumbent runs for re-election and potentially faces a scandal. Some incumbents enjoy telling “tales” (attention-grabbing stories) while others use tales to distract voters from the scandal. Multiple equilibria can arise: one with a norm of tale-telling in which red herrings succeed and another with a norm against tale-telling in which they fail. Increased media attention to tales has a non-monotonic effect, facilitating red herrings at low attention levels, but serving a disciplinary function at high levels.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, and Media
Political Geography:
Global Focus

47. The El Niño Southern Oscillation and Geopolitical Risk

Author:
Cullen Hendrix
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper investigates whether the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—the warming and cooling cycle in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that affects both global atmospheric and ocean conditions—is a driver of geopolitical risk at the global scale. Using nonlinear cross-convergent mapping, a technique for characterizing causal relationships in dynamic systems, it finds ENSO is causally related to geopolitical risk at the global level, but that finding is not replicated at the country level for countries whose economies are most strongly influenced by ENSO cycles. Put differently, ENSO-related geopolitical risk is an emergent phenomenon evident only at the Earth system level. Then, using monthly observations of ENSO and geopolitical risk, the paper reports a curvilinear, contemporaneous relationship between ENSO and risk, with La Niña conditions associated with lessened geopolitical risk relative to El Niño and neutral climate conditions. The effects are statistically and substantively significant, and the relationship is demonstrated to be stronger in more recent decades (post-1990). The effect for geopolitical risk of transitioning from La Niña to neutral ENSO conditions is of similar magnitude to that of the outbreak of a major interstate war.
Topic:
Security, Agriculture, Climate Change, Politics, Geopolitics, Risk, Weather, and El Niño
Political Geography:
Global Focus

48. False promises: The authoritarian development models of China and Russia

Author:
Joseph Lemoine, Dan Negrea, Patrick Quirk, and Lauren Van Metre
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Are authoritarian regimes more successful than free countries in offering prosperity to their people? The answer is decidedly no, yet China and Russia actively advertise the “benefits” and “promise” of their authoritarian development model. Beijing and Moscow contend that their governance model—rooted in central control of political, social, and economic life—delivers for their people. The facts prove exactly the opposite and show that countries characterized by repression and concentrated control are far less successful across all metrics of human development than are free societies. That free societies are better for the people residing in them is not an ideological position; it is a statement of fact backed by substantial evidence, including, but not limited to, the Atlantic Council’s Freedom and Prosperity Indexes. This paper aims to showcase why and how the authoritarian development model is inferior to that of free societies. The first section documents democratic backsliding and the reversal of freedom’s fortunes. The second section presents data on how authoritarian regimes have failed to deliver prosperity for their people. The third section outlines how free societies have done the opposite—delivered sustained prosperity for their citizens. The final section offers the conclusion that authoritarian regimes, despite their claims, cannot deliver democratic progress or prosperity for society at large.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Diplomacy, Politics, Authoritarianism, Reform, and Democratic Transitions
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, and Asia

49. Redefining US strategy with Latin America and the Caribbean for a new era

Author:
Jason Marczak, Maria Fernanda Bozmoski, and Matthew Kroenig
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The strategic interest of the United States and the countries of Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) lies in strengthening their western hemisphere partnership. Shared borders, economic interests, and security alliances bind these nations, along with a common goal for prosperity. However, the perception of waning US interest and the rise of external influences necessitate the rejuvenation of and renewed focus on this partnership. In May 2023, the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center and the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security established the US-LAC Future Strategy Working Group to redefine the US-LAC partnership. This strategy promotes mutual and inclusive economic growth, renewed cooperation through enhanced commercial and investment ties, a renewed paradigm on bolstering security and reducing migration flows across the region, and a focus on preparedness in the face of natural disasters and the energy transition. Acting on this strategy could significantly benefit US economic and security interests. The United States should capitalize on immediate opportunities, like promoting nearshoring as a means to growth and prosperity across the Americas, while maintaining a medium-term strategy tailored to each country’s specific needs. This strategy paper highlights the importance of adaptability and practicality, particularly as the global economic landscape evolves and power shifts foresee new leading economies by mid-century. In addition, the strategy advocates for the significance of the US-LAC relationship amid the recalibration of US worldwide interests.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Migration, Politics, Economy, and Energy
Political Geography:
Latin America, Caribbean, and United States of America

50. On the Role of Local Government in Promoting Peace and Political-Environmental Sustainability

Author:
Kim Noach
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
The paper discusses the rising power of local government and its ability to independently create and/or advance foreign relations in order to promote peace and good neighborly relations. One of the prominent areas in which local government engages and cooperates with others today is the environmental and climate field, notably in light of the foot-dragging of nation-states around these issues. Given this reality, the paper examines whether relationships and cooperation on the environment might be built between local authorities when their respective nation-states maintain no relations or only cold ones, or are in ongoing conflict. The paper analyses three theoretical axes: 1) the rising political power of local authorities vis-à-vis their nation-states, and as significant actors in global diplomacy; 2) growing local involvement with environmental problems; and 3) the promotion of environmental peacebuilding. The paper analyses the feasibility of joining these axes, and gives relevant examples, focussing on the Israeli-Palestinian-Jordanian space. The main argument arising from the analysis is that local government has the tools and the effective opportunity to advance environmental cooperation as a stimulus to making peace; and further, that processes of this sort are particularly important when there is no political horizon. While Israel and its region are indeed the focus of this paper’s examination of local government and its potential for building relationships, the general insights derived are applicable to other regions of conflict.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Politics, Peace, Sustainability, and Local Government
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Jordan