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1. Current Dynamics in Syria and the Way Forward

Author:
Khogir Wirya
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:
Recent events in Syria represent a turning point in the history of the Middle East, where internal dynamics are intertwined with regional and international ones. Syria is not just a theater for local conflicts, but has become an arena for competition between major powers, which directly affects the nature of possible solutions. Within this complex landscape, the Kurdish issue stands out as one of the most sensitive and urgent priorities, with its reciprocal impact on the other components of the Syrian conflict and the country’s future.
Topic:
Political stability, Syrian War, and Kurds
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

2. Palestinian Elections: A Vital Step Toward a Stable Political Settlement

Author:
Ephraim Lavie
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
A political settlement to resolve the conflict with the Palestinians once Hamas is weakened, and after an intermediate stage in which a reconstituted Palestinian Authority is established with the promise of a real political horizon, is a vital Israeli interest. Achieving this goal requires the election of a pragmatic Palestinian leadership that is deemed legitimate by the Palestinian public and is therefore able to realize the vision of a viable Palestinian state and a stable political settlement that provides security for Israel. In order to prevent the election of extremists opposed to a political settlement, legitimate restrictions must be placed on the individuals and groups running for the post of president and for membership in the legislative council. These limitations will be based on the three conditions that the Quartet countries laid out for Hamas after its victory in the 2006 elections: abandoning the path of terrorism, recognizing Israel, and affirming the previous agreements it signed with the PLO. The elections must take place in the context of an advanced political process offering hope to the Palestinian people in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, and increasing their support for a settlement approach. To that end, Israel will have to declare its commitment to a political process designed to result in a two-state solution, and adopt confidence-building measures that demonstrate its intent to reach a political settlement, including a halt of construction in the settlements. At the same time, the international community, led by the United States and the European Union, will have to guarantee their recognition of a Palestinian state. The United States will also help train the Palestinian Authority’s security apparatuses, contribute to the development of its economy, and promote reforms in government institutions. Israel and the international community must lay the groundwork for orderly, internationally supervised elections in the West Bank, East Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip that will ensure the election of a suitable national leadership for the Palestinian people. Having won the trust of the people, such a leadership will enjoy legitimacy and be able to promote a stable settlement with Israel. It will also contribute, over time, to strengthening the moderate elements in society and weakening extremist, religious, and nationalist opposition elements.
Topic:
Elections, Political stability, Negotiation, Peace, Palestinian Authority, and Israeli–Palestinian Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and West Bank

3. A Vision for Regional – International Partnership for Gaza Rebuilding and Palestinian Economic Leap

Author:
Yitzhak Gal and Maya Sion-Tzidkiyahu
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
The immense extent of destruction in the Gaza Strip caused by the 2023-2024 Gaza War, requires massive rebuilding. This paper sets a vision of a long-term economic rebuilding plan, which is aimed at ending the humanitarian crisis and creating a functioning and sustainable economy. The rebuilding of the Gazan economy, and the Palestinian economy at large, should be planned and designed as part of an international-regional political and economic vision of stabilizing, strengthening and improving Israeli-Palestinian and Israeli-Arab relations, in the broader context of strengthening stability and prosperity in the Middle East.
Topic:
Reconstruction, Political stability, Humanitarian Crisis, Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

4. The New Geopolitical Formation in the Wider Horn of Africa: Consequences for Europe

Author:
Jan Pospisil
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
The ongoing conflicts in Sudan, Somalia, and Ethiopia significantly destabilise the Wider Horn of Africa and impact the broader Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. These conflicts, rooted in fragmented statehood and exacerbated by internal ethnic, regional, and political divisions, threaten regional stability through increased migration and disruptions in the Red Sea. The conflicts are deeply internationalised, involving military engagements from neighbouring countries and attracting global powers due to significant geostrategic stakes. Traditional Western influences are waning. Instead, new actors like China, Russia, and various Gulf States are heavily engaged in the region. For Europe, the instability in the Horn of Africa presents urgent challenges, primarily related to migration, the security of maritime routes, and potential spillover effects in neighbouring regions like Egypt. Addressing these issues requires enhanced political engagement, addressing humanitarian needs, reforming peacekeeping efforts, and strengthening security cooperation. Europe’s response should be robust and coordinated, aiming to mitigate immediate threats and contribute to long-term stability in the region, reflecting the complexity of the intertwined interests and ongoing conflicts.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Political stability, Conflict, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Horn of Africa

5. Analyzing how rampant organized crime is impacting Latin America’s stability ?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
The ongoing violent tensions engulfing some Latin American countries, starting with Ecuador in the east and extending to Haiti in the Caribbean in the west, raise questions about the motives behind the growing illicit activities of organized crime across the continent. Those activities include drug production and trafficking, human trafficking, arms smuggling, and others. Such transnational crimes pose security threats and challenges to the countries of the region and neighboring states, foremost among them the United States, which has historically regarded Latin America as its backyard, allowing no one to approach the continent or interfere in its affairs without prior permission.
Topic:
Crime, Political stability, Violence, Organized Crime, Gangs, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Latin America, Haiti, and Ecuador

6. Geopolitics and Geography: A Realigned EU Strategy for Stability in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean

Author:
Bernard Siman
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The new EU Commission should commence its geopolitical thinking by acknowledging that geography is not kind to those who ignore her. The new European Parliament has the unique opportunity to become perhaps the first geopolitical parliament through a similar process. States, political leaders and societies ignore their geographic realities at their peril. Perceptions of location, distance and neighbourhoods can be dangerously distorted when they drift too far off from actual geographic realities. Digital technology, ease of air travel (bypassing the unpleasant geographic realities on the ground), combined with over three decades of peace in Europe, and 50 years in the Middle East, have created the distorted perceptions that somehow Israel’s and Ukraine’s neighbourhood was liberal Europe. These collective perceptions, untethered from their geographic realities, eclipsed perhaps the fact that both have neighbours with whom they have been at differing degrees of long-simmering conflicts. In reality, however, Israel and its neighbours have not succeeded at resolving the conflicts on its very borders, betraying the perception of peace. It is as if those neighbours with whom Israel has been in conflict had disappeared.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, Political stability, and Geography
Political Geography:
Europe and Middle East

7. Aligned in the sand: How Europeans can help stabilise the Sahel

Author:
Will Brown
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
A decade of military, humanitarian, and developmental European interventions in the Sahelian states of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have failed comprehensively. Coups have swept the region. Burkina Faso is close to complete collapse. Europe thus faces three openly antagonistic military juntas on its southern flank, which are cutting deals with rival outside powers like Russia. The combination of past failure, disinformation campaigns, and the wars in Gaza and Ukraine have scattered European states’ approaches in all directions. Some have walked away from the Sahel completely. Others have stayed but resisted cooperation with the Sahelian juntas. A few have sought to remain engaged. European governments should stay involved in the Sahel wherever possible. The region is part of Europe’s neighbourhood; rival outside powers have no qualms about mass human-rights abuses; and further disengagement will only open up new inroads for malign actors. For European governments, this means frankly acknowledging past failures in the Sahel, gathering behind a new strategy for engagement, and supporting Gulf of Guinea states. A particular focus should be funding anti-disinformation policies.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Political stability, Military Intervention, and Disinformation
Political Geography:
Europe, North Africa, and Sahel

8. Proxy battles: Iraq, Iran, and the turmoil in the Middle East

Author:
Hamzeh Hadad
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
The war in Gaza has deepened the Middle East’s fault lines. Iran and its proxies and the US and Israel have engaged in a cycle of tit-for-tat attacks across the region, with the Israeli bombing of the Iranian consulate in Syria and Iran’s direct retaliation against Israel threatening to escalate into a regional war. Iraqi paramilitaries operating as part of Iran’s ‘axis of resistance’ have also attacked US forces in Iraq, who responded with reprisals of their own. This, and the increasing risk of a wider war, imperils the relative stability Iraq has enjoyed over the past few years and the country’s fledgling role as a regional mediator. Iran’s influence in Iraq increased following the US invasion of 2003 and the fall of Saddam Hussein – but their relationship is far from being a simple agent-proxy arrangement. Iran’s strongest influence is through its paramilitaries’ presence in Iraq’s security apparatus, but Iraq has also exhibited some political independence from its neighbour and maintains financial leverage over Iran. Europeans can help increase Iraq’s autonomy. In the economic sector, they should strengthen its financial institutions through global integration and digitisation. European countries can also work alongside Gulf states to broaden their ties with Iraq, including in foreign investment and a shift from a development or humanitarian aid framework towards normal bilateral ties. However, for any European policy to be successful in Iraq, it must be designed within a broader framework of ending the war in Gaza and resolving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict – without which the dangerous escalation across the Middle East may continue.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Political stability, Proxy Groups, Regional Politics, and Axis of Resistance
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, and Middle East

9. Notes Towards a Multifaceted Approach to Political Stability

Author:
Radu Carp and Łukasz Perlikowski
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
This paper seeks to improve comprehension of issues related to political stability. The primary elucidating tool employed is the multifaceted approach to political stability. This is the idea that similar political stability mechanisms can be observed in many different political contexts. These phenomena consist of conspicuous discrepancies between the stability of dimensions or layers of the political sphere. The lack of congruency between political stability and economic stability, differences between the stability of government authorities and the stability of the whole political system, or the gap between social and political stability are examples that are not difficult to grasp in ordinary observations of political appearances. The main task of this paper is to explain and elaborate on the reasons behind this phenomenon. As an additional value, some suggestions of how our findings can change the view on the method of research on political stability are to be found. The outcome of our investigation can be applied to comparative politics, constitutional studies, and political system analysis. The paper is particularly significant for empirically oriented political theory.
Topic:
Political stability, Asynchronism, and System Analysis Approach
Political Geography:
Global Focus

10. Unrest on Repeat: Plotting a Route to Stability in Peru

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
No country in Latin America suffers higher rates of dissatisfaction with democracy and government institutions than Peru. Absent remedies for political polarisation and state dysfunction, the mass protests that rocked the country in late 2022 could easily recur, bringing comparably violent crackdowns.
Topic:
Democracy, Political stability, Institutions, Polarization, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
South America and Peru

11. Northern Kosovo: Asserting Sovereignty amid Divided Loyalties

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Tensions are rising in Kosovo’s restive Serb-majority north, as Pristina enforces its writ against the backdrop of continuing disputes with Belgrade. The parties and outside supporters should first work on defusing the short-term risk of violence and then look for ways to foster lasting stability.
Topic:
Sovereignty, Political stability, Domestic Politics, and Violence
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Kosovo

12. Russia Is Down, But Not Out, in Central Asia

Author:
Maximilian Hess
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
Abstract:
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has weakened its influence in Central Asia, especially in Kazakhstan. Russia is no longer a regional hegemon, which may increase regional instability. Tensions between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are especially dangerous. Despite Moscow’s diminished influence in Central Asia, regional states cannot afford to completely ignore Russian interests. Western hopes for Central Asian gas resources to be pumped westwards and circumvent Russia remain unlikely to be fulfilled.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Gas, Political stability, Regional Power, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Central Asia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan

13. From shock and awe to stability and flaws: Iraq’s post-invasion journey

Author:
Hamzeh Hadad
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
In the 20 years since the US-led invasion, Iraq’s political order and elite have proven surprisingly resilient in the face of numerous challenges, including terrorism, civil war, threats of secession, and mass protests. The informal consociational system, party politics, patronage networks, and competing paramilitaries are enduring features of Iraqi governance that have maintained stability even as they present many long-term problems. Despite the system’s resilience, Iraq remains deeply challenged by corruption, a lack of economic diversity and development, climate vulnerability, and some persistent security deficits. Europeans should acknowledge the realities of Iraqi governance and work within them to achieve shared European-Iraqi interests rather than seeking to impose their own ideals or solutions. Europeans could, for example, help Iraqis to manage their youth bulge problem, digitise the economy, and prepare for and adapt to climate change.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Political stability, Iraq War, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Iraq, Europe, and Middle East

14. Fragile States Index 2023 – Annual Report

Author:
Nate Haken, Daniel Woodburn, Emily Sample, Wendy Wilson, and John Madden
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Fund for Peace
Abstract:
The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
Topic:
War, Territorial Disputes, Fragile States, Political stability, Peace, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Sudan, Turkey, Ukraine, France, Armenia, Peru, Guyana, Global Focus, Burkina Faso, and Nagorno-Karabakh

15. The Syrian Civil War Twelve Years On: Can There Be a Constructive Role for Greece?

Author:
Ioannis N. Grigoriadis and Loukas I. Papavasileiou
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Continual and ever-growing foreign involvement led to the internationalization of the armed conflict and turned Syria into a battleground for the strategic competition of several powers. The Kremlin has long viewed Hafez and Bashar al-Assad as indispensable partners in the Middle East and has repeatedly offered its diplomatic and military support in an attempt to achieve its own strategic objectives. Given the destabilizing effects the unending Syrian crisis has had on Middle Eastern and Eastern Mediterranean security, Greece maintains a profound interest in the resolution of the conflict. Greece appointed a Special Envoy for Syria in May 2020 with a view to reinvigorating its policy vis-à-vis the Syrian crisis. Greece’s successful re-engagement with key Arab countries and improved relations with other regional actors could pave the way for a more prominent Greek role in Syria. This could entail reinforcing its diplomatic cooperation with the EU Delegation to Syria, leading the EU humanitarian relief effort following the devastating earthquakes that hit Syria on 6 February 2023, and formulating a realistic and forward-looking strategy for the future of the Syrian people, including provisions for the voluntary repatriation of refugees and the protection of minority rights.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Refugees, Political stability, Syrian War, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Greece, and Syria

16. Restoring Competitive Politics: Electoral Contestation and the Future in Turkey and India, and Iran and Russia

Author:
Hugh Sandeman
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
The institutions and practices necessary for open and fair competition for political power are eroding across the world. In some countries, such as Turkey and India, the democratic dividend of electoral competition has been steadily undermined by majoritarian autocrats who have proved adept in campaigning for office and winning elections. In others, such as Russia and Iran, political leaders have marginalised or suppressed electoral processes, reducing them to closely managed performances that seek to demonstrate public consent. At least some traces of the mechanisms of electoral competition often remain in place, however, even where genuine public consent has been almost extinguished. This leaves open the possibility that the trend away from competitive electoral politics could be at least partially reversed in future, in the context of political succession or the electoral defeat of incumbents. In June 2023, LSE IDEAS brought together experts from the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and other institutions to examine the potential for restoring the democratic dividend of competitive politics in four major countries. Turkey and India were selected for their timeliness—national parliamentary and presidential elections were held in Turkey in May 2023, and national parliamentary elections are due in India in April 2024—and for their similarities: both political systems are characterised by powerful elected leaders with a strong record of performance in national elections, each backed by large political parties based on an appeal to national and religious identity. Iran and Russia were chosen as examples of two states where competitive electoral politics had been temporarily enabled by significant political change—respectively, an impasse in Iran’s theocracy in the 1990s, and the end of the Soviet Union—only to be undermined by the reassertion of autocratic power. Two assumptions underlay the planning of this discussion on ‘Restoring Competitive Politics: Electoral Contestation and the Future’. The first is that the characterisation of political systems as either democratic or autocratic provides an insufficient basis for explaining many differences in the workings of political institutions, or for guiding policy. The second assumption is that while certain institutions and practices appear to be essential to maintaining open competition for political power—including for example, freedom and diversity of comment in major channels of communication like broadcast television, radio, newspapers, and social media—there is no useful empirical example or theoretical formulation of an ideal or perfect democratic political system. The exclusion from the discussion of countries with longer established forms of competitive politics, such as the United States or the United Kingdom, was not intended to suggest an implicit comparison with ideal types of functioning democracies. On the contrary, there are grounds for concern about the maintenance of open competition for political power in every country professing to be a democracy. As David Runciman has said of the future of democratic practices: ‘The question for the twenty-first century is how long we can persist with institutional arrangements we have grown so used to trusting, that we no longer notice when they have ceased to work.’ He warns that ‘democracy could fail while remaining intact’.
Topic:
Elections, Political stability, Autocracy, and Competition
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Eurasia, Turkey, Middle East, India, and Asia

17. Stabilizing the Border: A Possible Way Ahead in the Post-Galwan Situation

Author:
Vijay Gokhale
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
An abnormal situation continues to prevail along the India-China Line of Actual Control (LAC) three years after the Galwan valley incident despite bilateral talks to resolve the matter. Although progress is being made, the force levels on both sides and the close proximity in which they are deployed increase the chances of a deadly mishap or an unintended encounter. Even after a mutually satisfactory resolution is achieved, it may still take several months to build back a broad political understanding at the state-to-state level and reverse the erosion in trust. This paper examines why the existing agreements and measures to preserve peace and tranquility along the LAC were not entirely successful in mitigating the military face-offs between the two sides since 2013, including in the Galwan valley in 2020. It also explores whether the three-stage formula1 that is being talked of is a way of resolving the issue—disengagement, de-escalation, and de-induction2 of forces—especially the de-induction of forces, could practically work given the absence of trust as well as the geographical and climatic conditions in which the two sides operate. The paper concludes that unless political trust exists, the de-induction of forces may not be achievable. India should be ready for a prolonged state of military preparedness by establishing a credible deterrence along the LAC and adequate reserves in the rear to respond to fresh aggression, while simultaneously engaging China to negotiate a modus vivendi in the border areas. Specific options both on negotiating a new balance with China and building deterrence are suggested. The first section of the paper looks at ways in which both sides created the building blocks of border management in the 1990s. The objective is to determine which elements succeeded in achieving peace and tranquility and why this framework has shown stress in more recent times. This section highlights that the border management framework, as originally envisaged, encompassed immediate measures to both stave off unintended conflict and longer-term ways and means to maintain peace and tranquility along the entire border region through mutual force reduction. It explores the possible reasons as to why the longer-term objective of mutual force reduction was not pursued. The paper concludes that peace and tranquility could not be sustainably maintained because the focus was on short-term management of situations to the detriment of long-term measures that would reduce the risks. The second section of the paper looks at how both sides might deal with border stabilization in the post-2020 scenario and, more specifically, whether mutual reduction of forces is still a feasible option. It seeks to draw lessons from the Sino-Russian experience in this regard, which shows that mutual force reduction happens when state-to-state engagement deepens and both sides feel comfortable with the level of trust and their own capacity for deterrence. The paper concludes that political trust is a prerequisite for meaningful mutual de-induction of forces. Presently, such conditions do not exist in the India-China context. This section of the paper also looks at how the growing infrastructure gap between India and China in the border areas since 2000 also makes it difficult for the two countries to replicate the Sino-Russian model. The final section of the paper looks at the options that might be available to India to build back a framework for peace and tranquility along the border areas. It also outlines the actions that India might consider adopting unilaterally as well as in the negotiations with China with the objective of creating the conditions for restoration of peace and tranquility in the border region. It suggests a three-pronged approach of negotiating with China to stabilize the border region, building deterrence on the LAC, and holding adequate reserves in the rear.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Territorial Disputes, Political stability, and Borders
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, and India

18. A Roadmap for Economic-Political Stability in Gaza, within A Wider Framework

Author:
Yitzhak Gal
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
As with many major crises, the catastrophic Oct. 7 Hamas onslaught on Israel and ensuing war in Gaza offer an opportunity for change. This policy paper proposes guidelines for a post-war roadmap to long-term economic, security, and political stability in Gaza. The approach proposed in this paper combines an “economic leap” plan with a political arrangement within the framework of regional economic cooperation, according to the following principles: (1) ending the war in Gaza with the collapse of the Hamas regime and its replacement with a stable governmental system that combines the legitimacy of the Palestinian Authority and deep international and regional involvement, (2) a comprehensive two-stage economic plan for Gaza, consisting of an “immediate response and reconstruction plan” and concurrently, implementing an “economic leap” plan that will place the Gaza Strip on a path of rapid and stable long-term economic growth, (3) the Gaza Strip’s economic boost plan will form part of a broader blueprint for the Palestinian Authority’s economic boost. The economic plan will integrate and support the political arrangement and stabilization of the Israeli-Palestinian system. Jumpstarting Gaza’s economy, and the Palestinian economy in general, will be achieved through a combination of several elements, chief among them: (1) a series of “game-changing” projects in the Gaza Strip and West Bank, (2) continue the deep ties of Gaza with the Israeli economy and West Bank, (3) develop economic ties with the Gulf bloc as another strong economic partner, along with Israel, (4) integrate Gaza and the West Bank into the economic cooperation processes taking place in the region and into major regional projects, (5) The elements mentioned above would be reflected in a quantum leap in the scope of investments in the Palestinian economy. An economic boost is vital to ensure the success of the the political goals, and vice versa. Ending the war without implementing the guidelines proposed here would abandon Gaza again to radical Palestinian forces and take Gaza and Israel back to where they were on the eve of Oct. 7. Namely, instability in Gaza and an Israeli policy of “managing” the conflict at varying levels of violence. The terrible cost of this policy is tragically clear. * This document is part of a series of policy papers which is a product of a joint project by the Mitvim Institute and the Berl Katzenelson Foundation to reflect on the post-war era with the support of the new Israel Fund.
Topic:
Security, Economy, Political stability, Hamas, October 7, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

19. Pariah or Partner? Reevaluating the U.S.-Saudi Relationship

Author:
Jon Hoffman
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The U.S.-Saudi relationship is stuck. America’s policy toward the kingdom is rooted in flawed rationales and supported by a system of lobbying and influence designed to sustain the status quo. Those policies are proving ineffective at navigating the changing landscape, both in the Middle East and globally, while reaping virtually no benefits for the United States. The longer these fruitless policies persist, the more they will harm U.S. interests. The long-standing rationales for close U.S.-Saudi relations—centered on oil, counterterrorism, and preserving regional stability—are flawed. What Washington needs from the region on those issues is quite limited and simple to achieve. Despite the high costs and dubious benefits of the current approach to Saudi Arabia, there is a growing chorus in Washington to deepen the relationship with Riyadh. New rationales for expanding the relationship include the return of great power competition to the Middle East and the expansion of the Abraham Accords, which are increasingly being linked together as the new lodestar of Middle East policy. These new rationales also do not withstand scrutiny. It is time for a fundamental reevaluation of the U.S.-Saudi relationship. The United States should approach Saudi Arabia as it would any other state that does not share our interests or our values: from arm’s length.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Political stability, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Middle East, Saudi Arabia, North America, and United States of America

20. Shifting Dynamics in the Middle East: Implications for Pakistan

Author:
Zosha Noor, Muhammad Javed, and Shakeel Ahmed
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
China's resurgence as a global actor has significantly altered international relations, particularly in the Middle East, particularly with Saudi Arabia and Iran. Pakistan's unique geographical location and complex international interactions present an intriguing situation due to these changes. Pakistan's close relations with China, Saudi Arabia, and Iran, along with its shared border and cultural ties with Iran, influence its security concerns, domestic politics, economy imperative, and foreign policy. China's growing relationship with Saudi Arabia is driven by its oil needs, global influence, and regional stability. Iran offers China a valuable counterbalance and potential ally in the Middle East due to its geostrategic position and abundant natural resources. The United States' long-standing hegemony in the Middle East has been put to the challenge by China's growing influence and strategic alliances in the region. This qualitative study investigates the issues relating to Middle East with an objective to evaluate the role of great powers‘ politics in the region. The Middle East's shifting geopolitical environment could be advantageous for projects like the ChinaPakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Chabahar Port Development, and Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline.
Topic:
International Relations, Political stability, Rapprochement, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Pakistan, China, Iran, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America

21. Social and Historical Investigation of China’s Ethnic Minorities: Based on Political Stability and National Unity

Author:
Bao Longyuan and Mei Jun
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Political Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
The social and historical investigation of China’s ethnic minorities was a major national political action in 50s-60s of the 20th Century, and it was of particular significance to the governance of the frontier, the maintenance of ethnic equality, and the long-term stability of China. In the era of underdeveloped information technology, the Communist Party of China (CPC) entered ethnic minorities areas, on the one hand, to understand the living conditions of ethnic minorities, and to facilitate the introduction of relevant supporting policies. On the other hand, the investigation process also publicized the CPC’s thought on governing the country, so that the people can more understand and trust the CPC, so as to promote national unity and political stability. Although this investigation has become a history, its significance, value and effect are still prominent for China’s political stability and national development today.Therefore, it is still of important practical significance to study the social and historical investigation of China’s ethnic minorities.
Topic:
Development, Minorities, Political stability, Ethnicity, and National Unity
Political Geography:
China and Asia

22. Can Alternative Sequencing of Actions Break the Deadlock in Implementing the Agreement on the Path to Normalization between Kosovo and Serbia?

Author:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
The dispute between Kosovo and Serbia remains a major challenge to the security, stability, and prosperity of the entire Western Balkans region. In particular, the Banjska terrorist attack carried out by Serb militants against the Kosovo Police on September 24, 2023 (with the support from Serbia’s state apparatus, as per the investigation of Kosovar authorities) underscores the pressing need for a sustainable resolution to the ongoing dispute between Kosovo and Serbia. The most promising path toward such a resolution lies in the full implementation of the Agreement on the Path to Normalization of Relations between Kosovo and Serbia (APN), which was verbally agreed in Brussels in February 2023, because the Serbian President Vucic refused to sign it.
Topic:
Security, Political stability, Normalization, and Disputes
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia

23. What is Kosovo’s position in regional security cooperation?

Author:
Dorjeta Rukiqi
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
Regional Cooperation is central to stability of the Western Balkans (WB), which is also recognized by the European Union (EU), and it is a key condition in the European integration process of all six countries of the region. Regional cooperation is included in different chapters of the acquis, including chapters 23 and 24 of the acquis. For Kosovo, regional cooperation is part of the Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) with the EU, which constitutes a contractual obligation. In the context of the European integration, the main platform for regional cooperation has been the Berlin Process, launched in 2014 and Kosovo has actively participated in this platform. In 2012, in the context of the normalization dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo, the parties agreed with the so-called ‘’footnote agreement’’ which is meant to facilitate participation of Kosovo in regional cooperation initiative. However, the agreement is seen as controversial in Kosovo, and the country faces challenges to fully participate and integrate in regional cooperation initiatives. Of particular relevance for Kosovo in regional cooperation, is security. Kosovo's representation in regional security cooperation initiatives is limited, and often facilitated by organizations like NATO, EULEX, and UNMIK. In addition to the political hurdles for participation and integration in regional security cooperation initiatives, even in those organizations or initiatives that it has managed to secure membership, Kosovo is often under represented, particularly in leadership roles. For instance a study from 2021 shows that only nine percent of staff in regional organizations hailed from Kosovo. Consequently, despite being part of multiple regional security cooperation initiatives, Kosovo's position remains unequal compared to other member states of the WB.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, European Union, Political stability, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Kosovo

24. Strategies to future-proof Zambia: Debt relief and beyond

Author:
Vincent Obisie-Orlu
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:
Debt relief negotiations are currently taking place, with Zambia expected to be the first country to receive debt relief under the newly created G20 Common Framework. However, the process faces challenges, with China and the United States trading accusations of impeding the process. Some of Zambia's creditors have also been unwilling to agree to write off some of the country's debt. Positively, innovative approaches to debt relief have been proposed that would support Zambia's net-zero ambitions and promote sustainable development, such as debt for nature swaps. The integration of Zambia into the European Union's Critical Minerals framework could further support and assist Zambia in attaining a deal. Without a deal, Zambia risks being plunged into further macroeconomic uncertainty at a time when the country needs investment to capitalise on opportunities presented by political stability and structurally higher prices for copper and other critical minerals with which Zambi a is endowed.
Topic:
Debt, Development, Natural Resources, Political stability, Mining, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

25. Individualism and Political Stability

Author:
Minhyeon Jeong and Wongi Kim
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
This study analyzes the relationship between individualism as a cultural trait and political instability as a political characteristic. The intuition of the analysis is that cultural traits can determine political preferences of members of society. The study considers a specific political belief: “How much should the government protect individual property rights?” which extends to broader political beliefs such as profree market vs. pro-redistribution. According to numerous studies, individualistic cultures tend to support stronger protection of property rights than collectivist cultures. If the degree of protection of property rights is determined by the political choices of the members of society, it can be inferred that the political preferences that lead to strong protection of property rights reflect the individualistic cultures inherent in society members. That is, the political preferences of society members regarding the degree of property rights protection―or, in a broader sense, pro-free market versus pro-redistribution―are influenced by their cultural traits of individualism or collectivism. This study presents a politico-economic model that captures this intuition. The theoretical results are as follows. First, in societies where neither individualism nor collectivism dominates, political preferences for free-market or redistribution contrast more sharply than in societies where individualism or collectivism dominates. Second, this contrast in political preferences leads to political instability, such that societies where neither individualism nor collectivism dominates tend to be more politically unstable. This study provides empirical evidence supporting the theoretical results. This study identifies a relationship between cultural traits, political preferences and political instability, shedding light on the impact of culture on economic growth. In a nutshell, societies with highly heterogeneous cultural traits among their members are prone to polarization of political preferences, leading to political instability, which constrains economic growth in the long run.
Topic:
Political Economy, Political stability, Individualism, and Competition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

26. Controlling the Narrative: A Roadmap to Russia's 2024 Presidential Election

Author:
András Tóth-Czifra
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
Abstract:
Almost ten years into Russia’s war against Ukraine and almost two years into the 2022 full-scale invasion, most domestic political and economic actors seem to have accepted the emergence of a new normal. Timelines and perceived limits of economic planning and political activities have shifted. However, the contours of this new normal are still unclear, which introduces an element of uncertainty into Russian politics on all levels. The two main reasons for this uncertainty are the Russian government’s unequivocal bet on the war effort, which is reflected in budgetary priorities, communication, and an increasingly short-term planning horizon; and the rapid, major adjustments that the continuation of the war and economic sanctions have forced on the political and business elite. While the war as a topic is rarely discussed in public politics due to the risks associated with criticizing the authorities’ line and the heightened attention paid by the security services to dissenters, issues related to the war—such as a tightening of funds available for other budgetary headings, the rapid and forced restructuring of the Russian economy, and fears of an armed rebellion inside the country—have shaped political debates and created frictions. While the Kremlin seems to still be firmly holding the reins of political institutions four months before the 2024 presidential election, it has sought to reduce its dependence on regional power brokers and officials. In parallel, regional elites, typically in peripheral regions, have been able to mount a certain degree of opposition to the Kremlin while bargaining for increasingly scarce resources. The stability of domestic politics is guaranteed, for the time being, by a critical mass of voters and elites beginning to believe that the war is an inevitable circumstance and that victory is close (i.e., a necessary, but short war), all while the Russian government needs to maintain the international perception that Russians are ready and prepared for a long war. Challenging this belief, all while being aware of the existing and new avenues of domestic politics in Russia, is an important purpose of international sanctions.
Topic:
Political stability, Domestic Politics, Vladimir Putin, Presidential Elections, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia and Eurasia

27. Europe and Russia on the Balkan Front. Geopolitics and Diplomacy in the EU’s Backyard

Author:
Giorgio Fruscione
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
The war in Ukraine has taken its toll on the stability of the Balkans by reshuffling regional geopolitics and reviving diplomatic competition between the West and Russia. Since the summer of 2022, growing tensions between Kosovo and Serbia have raised concerns about a possible Russian involvement and pushed the European Union to react promptly. By brokering a new normalisation agreement, the West seeks to prevent new hotbeds in Europe and push Russia one step back from the Balkans. Meanwhile, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has given new momentum to the integration process of candidate states, making EU membership a tangible goal rather than an unattainable dream. Will the EU be able to stabilise the Balkans? Will Russia continue to exert its influence in the region? Are Belgrade and Pristina on the eve of a new phase in the normalisation process?
Topic:
Diplomacy, European Union, Geopolitics, Political stability, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Balkans

28. Ethnic Divisions and Ensuring Stability in Kazakhstan: A Guide for U.S. Policy

Author:
Suzanne Loftus
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:
This brief assesses ethnic divisions in Kazakhstan, analyzes the potential risks of ethnic and geopolitical tension and makes recommendations for U.S. policy. Kazakhstan’s current approach to managing its internal divides and overall stability is assessed and drivers of potential risk are evaluated. Due to renewed cold war tensions with China and Russia, the United States must resist any temptation to become involved in Kazakhstan’s internal politics and refrain from any efforts to sway Kazakhstan to ally itself with the West. This would only cause internal instability and hostile relations with its neighbors, Russia and China. Given Kazakhstan’s potential for domestic strife, U.S. interests are best served by a restrained approach to the country that better preserves its internal and external stability. Kazakhstan’s vast land mass and sparse population leave the country vulnerable to potential external threats. Kazakhstan borders Russia and China, its strongest security and economic partners respectively. These two powers are very close while the United States is far and consequently plays a relatively minor role in the country. The United States can and should, however, engage economically with Kazakhstan to support its development.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Political stability, Ethnicity, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Central Asia, Kazakhstan, and United States of America

29. Competition Versus Exclusion in U.S.–China Relations: A Choice Between Stability and Conflict

Author:
Jake Werner
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:
The Biden administration’s China policy is pulling in two different directions, but the tension is not widely recognized because every antagonistic measure aimed at China is filed under the heading of competition. As a result, Washington’s debate on China loses the crucial distinction between “competition” — a kind of connection with the potential to be carried on in healthy ways — and “exclusion,” an attempt to sever connection that necessarily leads to conflict if the domain is significant. Biden’s exclusion policies focus on cutting China out of the principal growth sectors in the global economy and the most lucrative and strategically important markets. Administration officials think their approach is sensible and moderate compared to more extreme voices in Washington calling for exclusion in all realms. Even so, the Biden approach is highly destabilizing because both countries consider the targeted areas vital to the future of global authority and economic prosperity, and because the attempt to trap China in a position of permanent subordination represents a serious threat to the legitimacy of China’s leaders. Healthy competition requires a shared stake in the future. In earlier periods, despite sharp tensions and mutual suspicions suffusing the relationship, U.S.–China ties were stabilized first by the joint project of containing Soviet power and then by a shared commitment to market–led globalization. Now that leaders on both sides are disenchanted with key facets of globalization, the two countries are caught in an escalatory cycle of exclusion and retaliation that risks hardening zero–sum pressures in the global system into a permanent structure of hostility. In such a scenario, each country would organize its own society and international partners to undermine the other, dramatically increasing the likelihood of violent conflict. The warning signs are already clear on both sides, as each increasingly interprets every action on the other side as part of a conspiracy to achieve domination. Notwithstanding widespread complacency about the risks of conflict after a tentative diplomatic opening in recent months, the rise of securitized thinking in both countries is steadily building institutional and ideological momentum for confrontation that can only be broken by a new and inclusive direction for the relationship.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Political stability, Conflict, Strategic Competition, and Competition
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

30. Common Good Diplomacy: A Framework for Stable U.S.–China Relations

Author:
Jake Werner
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:
One curious feature of the emerging U.S.–China conflict is that each side claims to be defending the existing international order against the threat the other poses to it. Hidden beneath this seemingly irreconcilable dispute is a crucial truth: both the United States and China are status quo powers, sharing a deep interest in a stable global security environment and an open global economy. At the same time, both countries are pursuing urgently needed reforms to a global system increasingly defined by zero–sum pressures. Yet both are prone to exclusionary impulses that threaten to ruin the possibility of a shared reform agenda and instead throw the world into conflict. Working with China to revitalize the international order would not only prevent such a conflict, it would also establish the conditions for healthy forms of both competition and cooperation in the U.S.–China relationship. But how can U.S. leaders pursue such a project without simply giving a pass to China’s sometimes undesirable behavior? The focus should be diplomacy to frame an inclusive global system, focusing on actions that would reduce zero–sum constraints. In the three key realms of global authority and security, the global economy, and climate change, China is currently engaged in counterproductive moves that exacerbate existing tensions but is also pursuing promising reforms that could expand the scope for positive–sum outcomes. Rather than seeking to counter every Chinese initiative, U.S. leaders should carefully distinguish between beneficial and damaging outcomes, affirming and building on China’s constructive proposals and managing differences through negotiation rather than polemics and confrontation. Some potentially fruitful areas for cooperation include joint action to limit climate change, development in the Global South, revising the global guidelines for economic statecraft, and reforming international institutions to create a more open and inclusive world order. Pursuing cooperative efforts in such areas would both create direct benefits and improve U.S. credibility as a responsible leader of the world order rather than simply a rival of China. It would also open space to pursue competition within a rules–based order rather than risk a slide into destructive zero–sum conflict.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Political stability, and International Order
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

31. Building security: How Europeans can help reform Libya

Author:
Roberta Maggi
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Since 2011, divided governance structures in Libya have weakened the state’s monopoly on the use of force, as have the proliferation of armed groups and their gradual infiltration of security institutions across the country. One of the persistent errors of disarmament, demobilisation, and reintegration in Libya is the assumption that combatants can be bought off. Another is the assumption that security sector reform (SSR) depends on the right personalities rather than systems and processes. Europeans’ short-term stabilisation imperatives – notoriously, those related to migration and counter-terrorism – have repeatedly led to reactive policymaking that only deepens instability. For Europeans to play a meaningful SSR role, they will need a shared strategy and operational principles. But they will also need to recognise that they will initially have limited room for manoeuvre and that this will be a medium- to long-term effort. In the short term, Europeans should support the establishment of a Libyan-owned SSR body that can lead nationwide efforts in conjunction with UN diplomacy. This should be accompanied by a greater focus on strengthening bottom-up security initiatives that can help stabilise the country and restore European influence.
Topic:
Security, Reform, Political stability, and Foreign Assistance
Political Geography:
Libya and North Africa

32. Fragile States Index 2022 – Annual Report

Author:
Nate Haken, Daniel Woodburn, Juliette Gallo-Carelli, Asa Cooper, and Dylan Souquet
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Fund for Peace
Abstract:
The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Elections, Fragile States, Political stability, Violence, Crisis Management, Innovation, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:
Sudan, Libya, Brazil, South America, North Africa, Haiti, Somalia, Mali, Guinea, Sahel, Global Focus, and Lake Chad Basin

33. Managing the Risks of Instability in the Western Balkans

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Western Balkan six – five of the former Yugoslavia’s successor states plus Albania – remain outside the EU as war wounds fester and reform efforts stumble. Brussels should find means short of promising accession to help guide these countries back onto the right track.
Topic:
Political stability, State Building, Strategic Stability, and Instability
Political Geography:
Europe and Balkans

34. Iraq: Stabilising the Contested District of Sinjar

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Sinjar has yet to recover from the ravages of 2014, when ISIS subjected the population to unrelenting terror. Thousands remain displaced. To persuade them to return, the Iraqi federal and Kurdish regional governments will need help from the current residents in improving governance and security.
Topic:
Governance, Leadership, and Political stability
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

35. How Religious Diplomacy and Pan-Islamic Organizations Can Help Stabilize Afghanistan

Author:
Hussam R. Ahmed
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
The United States’ withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 was followed by a surprisingly quick takeover by the Taliban, the predominantly Pashtun, Islamic fundamentalist group that had initially been ousted in 2001. Their triumphant return to power 20 years has raised numerous questions about what led to the US and Western failure in Afghanistan, the implications for regional and global security, and the policy options now available to Europe and the United States. As of now, the West has no plans to engage with the Taliban government, but continued inaction could result in dire consequences for Afghan citizens as well as for Western interests at large. A severe humanitarian crisis has gripped Afghanistan since the Taliban takeover, pushing nearly 20 million people to the verge of famine. The United Nations Development Programme fears Afghanistan will face near “universal poverty” by the end of 2022 with 97 percent of the population living below the international poverty line. There is also a growing threat that a Taliban regime could enable terrorist organizations to operate more openly on Afghan soil, paving the way for new, aggravated threats to regional and global security. The withdrawal has also compelled European to re-evaluate their partnership with the United States on Afghanistan and to fear that the fallout from the Taliban’s resurgence will be most severe for Europe, including more immediately with social and economic costs of dealing with more refugees. There is widespread agreement in the West that engagement in Afghanistan needs to continue but not the way it was done in the past. To explore what that reimagining Western engagement can look like, this paper presents an analysis of a foreign policy approach that has largely remained absent from the discussion: religious diplomacy. This form of Track Two diplomacy is deeply rooted in religious texts, practices, and traditions, and it is oriented toward the active role of faith leaders in politics, conflict resolution, and peace-building. In Afghanistan, where the sociocultural and political realities have historically remained deeply intertwined with it, an insufficient understanding of religion has led some to argue this was a major blind spot in the Western foreign policy approach. There is a need to revisit religion’s centrality to the war and how religious diplomacy offers an underappreciated peace-building framework that can be operationalized through faith-based organizations that share existing relationships with Afghanistan, a common religious language and cultural affinities with its people, and moral capital to draw from. The Organization of Islamic Cooperation and the Muslim World League, in particular, are two highly influential pan-Islamic nongovernmental organizations, that have leveraged their religious legitimacy and moderate interpretations of Islamic teachings to provide a counter narrative to radical ideas that promote violent extremism, to facilitate dialogue, to mediate conflicts, and to initiate peace-building in previous and ongoing conflicts in the Muslim world. Drawing on their experience, this paper argues that creative religious diplomacy through them can be an effective policy option for the Europe and the United States for a sustainable future engagement in Afghanistan. The paper therefore offers recommendations that flesh out the form this could take.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Religion, Political stability, Domestic Politics, Society, and Community-based Organizations
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and South Asia

36. Tax provisioning by extractive industry multinational subsidiaries

Author:
Khanindra Ch. Das
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Extractive industries are spread across mining of metal and minerals, oil and gas, among others. Multinationals in these sectors are confronted with different challenges ranging from corruption, political risk, economic uncertainty, sunk costs, and the long-gestation periods to execute projects. As a result, tax payment behaviour of subsidiaries in the extractive sector could be dependent not only on these factors, but also on the life cycle of the subsidiary, profitability, and holding structure. Furthermore, emerging economy multinationals in the extractive industries could be state-owned and may invest in foreign subsidiaries for strategic reasons. We examine tax provision in host countries by India’s multinational subsidiaries in the extractive industry. Panel data analysis is carried out for the period 2010–20. It is found that tax provision remains lower in the initial years of subsidiary life and increases with the sustenance of subsidiary in the host country for a longer period. In addition, subsidiaries of public sector enterprises are found to have higher tax provisions than their private counterparts. When it comes to the determinants, economic policy uncertainty, corruption, and political stability are found to significantly affect tax provision.
Topic:
Corruption, Political stability, Multinational Corporations, Tax Systems, Economic Policy, Public Sector, Extractive Industries, and Uncertainty
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

37. Making Sense of Pakistani Youth How Youth in Pakistan View State, Society, Religion, and Politics

Author:
Ahmed Alili and Fizza Batool
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Abstract:
In view of the growing radicalization among educated youth and its adverse effects on Pakistan’s social, political, and economic stability, the study was conducted by Pak Institute for Peace Studies. The research was driven by the necessity and urge to understand youths’ internal thinking processes that shape their behaviours and actions. It is an attempt to make sense of how educated young men and women make sense of themselves and the world around them. To answer this question, the study sought to gain insights into various dimensions of youths’ thinking through a mixed-method approach to data collection, using survey questionnaires, interviews, observations as well as literature review. The findings present an interesting overall picture of an ordinary youths’ thinking and shed light on how youths situate themselves within their in-groups and the larger society. The study also aimed at appraising the overall quality of thoughts among youth and their tolerance/acceptance level for diversity and inclusion. Questions were designed to gauge youths’ cognitive skills, and their ability to think clearly and argue rationally etc. Likewise, another objective was to observe the impact of education on their outlook and general behaviour. The findings also provide a peek into worldviews commonly held by the youth, and whether they identify themselves as members of the larger human fraternity.
Topic:
Radicalization, Political stability, Youth, and Economic Stability
Political Geography:
Pakistan and Middle East

38. Afghan Peace and Reconciliation

Author:
Arooj Mumtaz
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Abstract:
The Taliban captured Kabul on 15th August 2021 and announced their government three weeks later. Pakistan viewed the event as cleaning up of the unwanted externalities in its neighborhood i.e., a complete pullback of Indian and Western presence and influence. However, the initial exhilaration has morphed into disappointment over the past months. Not only has the Taliban regime adopted traditional approach to Durand line, they are also believed to be turning a blind eye to the safe havens of anti-Pakistan terrorist groups on their soil. Pakistan in the current situation requires an all-encompassing parliament-led policy that focuses on provision of humanitarian assistance and on winning hearts and minds of the Afghan people. Along with humanitarian assistance, Pakistan’s present Afghan policy must address its bilateral equation with Afghanistan and counter-terrorism mechanisms. Unfortunately, despite their proximity, Afghanistan and Pakistan share no formal agreement regarding refugees, trade or border. So, the government must avail this opportunity and focus on sketching a bilateral strategic agreement because unlike previous governments in Kabul, the current government is keen to make formal agreements with neighbouring Pakistan. Moreover, Pakistan needs to exhibit a balanced approach, neither being apologetic about the amicable equation it shares with the Afghan Taliban, nor become an advocate of the Taliban. This will allow Pakistan to be pragmatic and shape its actions and reactions accordingly. Here it may be noted that a key factor that is limiting Pakistan’s policy choices is the enhanced threats to Pakistan’s internal security as well its western borders since the Taliban takeover of Kabul. Cross border movements of militants have increased, leading to a spike in attacks on Pakistan security personnel. As far as TTP is concerned, between September 2021 and March 2022, it claimed to have carried out 197 attacks. Apparently, the Taliban have reneged on their promises made in Doha as well as earlier that they would prevent Afghan soil from becoming a staging point for attacks inside Pakistan. This inaction is fundamentally due to the Afghan Taliban’s long affiliation with the TTP which fought side by side with them against foreign forces. Against this backdrop, the Afghan Taliban are averse to the idea of cracking down on the TTP in a meaningful way. Currently, the Taliban are limiting their efforts to being a mediator between the Pakistani government and TTP kingpins. On the question of Afghanistan’s humanitarian and economic crisis, there are contrasting opinions. While some advocate that Pakistan must be at the front foot, others maintain that Afghanistan’s humanitarian and economic issues are majorly a concern of the international community and Pakistan must conduct low- key. Through Pakistan’s weakened economy does not allow it to help Afghanistan single-handedly, still it can facilitate international engagement which certainly is the remedy for Afghanistan’s humanitarian and economic crises. Socio-economic stability in Afghanistan is crucial for Pakistan’s internal security because if Afghanistan does not stabilise macroeconomically, no politics or diplomacy will save Pakistan from fallout of the crisis in Afghanistan. Pakistan must focus its efforts towards assuring that international engagement and assistance is not conditioned with the provision of women rights – at least in the immediate term - particularly because Afghanistan has a specific cultural orientation which does not fully align with the Western concepts of human rights. Pakistan has so far exhibited a stern strategy towards refugees. Though it is fundamentally an attempt to keep the international community from denying its responsibility towards war ravaged Afghanistan, it is also motivated by Pakistan’s economic fragility. Not only has Pakistan given a cold response to the idea of more refugees pouring into Pakistan, it has also stopped UNHCR from using the terms “new arrivals” or “new refugees”. However, this approach will have negative impacts because when refugees are abandoned by states and a vacuum is created, other forces and elements start interfering. It is argued that such policies have led to recruitments in ISKP. So, with the situation in hand, the right roadmap will be to sketch inclusive measures in order to deal with the matter of refugees; refugees living in Pakistan for the last many decades should be considered for granting right to Pakistani citizenship.
Topic:
Governance, Taliban, Political stability, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Middle East

39. A Stabilizing Factor: Oman’s Quiet Influence amid Mounting Uncertainty in the Gulf

Author:
Jeonardo Jacopo Maria Mazzucco
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Based on its sound reputation as a conflict mediator and talks facilitator, Oman is well-positioned to tone down flaring rivalries in the Gulf and prevent tensions from spiraling out of control. After a timid thawing of tensions, the Gulf region is witnessing a renewed phase of uncertainty. Despite being a skillful master at navigating turbulent waters, Oman is eyeing the revamping of tensions in its immediate neighborhood with growing apprehension. The failed attempts to review the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the revamping of Iran’s outward-looking incendiary rhetoric as well as localized military retaliations amid recent mass protests, and the failure to extend the U.N.-brokered ceasefire in Yemen do not bode well for the region’s precarious stability. Muscat has a vested interest in preventing at-sea incidents from escalating and harsh infighting among rival Yemeni factions from reaching alarming proportions, especially given its coasts looking out on the Strait of Hormuz and much of its southwestern frontier bordering Yemen.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Energy Policy, and Political stability
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Oman, and Gulf Nations

40. The Ukraine Crisis and China-India Relations

Author:
Amrita Jash
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
On March 25, State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi made a surprise visit to India after stopovers in Pakistan and Afghanistan (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China [FMPRC], March 25). The visit was the first by a high-level Chinese official to India since December 2019 and the ongoing border standoff that broke out in May 2020 along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Eastern Ladakh. The sudden stopover, which was not announced in advance, generated speculation over Beijing’s intentions, particularly as it occurred in the immediate aftermath of Russia initiating its “special military operation” against Ukraine on February 24. This resulted in international condemnation and boycotts, and the imposition of economic sanctions by the U.S., the European Union, Japan and others on Russia. However, countries such as China and India, made an exception by choosing neutrality in condemning Russia. But did this shared position make any difference in improving China-India ties? Hitherto, relations have not substantively improved, notwithstanding the modest progress in the recent border talks. Following the 16th round of Corps Commander level talks on July 17, China and India stressed the “four-point consensus” they had reached on the resolution of the border issues (Xinhuanet, July 29). This “consensus” was further cited as the reason for the disengagement of troops from Patrolling Point-15 in Gogra-Hot Springs (Global Times, September 9). Notably, the disengagement followed a year-long impasse in the talks process and coincided with both countries’ participation in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Political stability, Crisis Management, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Ukraine, India, and Eastern Europe

41. China’s Interests in Afghanistan One Year After the U.S. Withdrawal

Author:
Zafar Iqbal Yousafzai
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
In late June, a severe earthquake struck southeastern Afghanistan. In the immediate aftermath of the disaster, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) announced it would provide 50 million RMB ($7.2 million) in emergency aid, including tents, blankets, cots and other sorely needed supplies to the impacted areas (People’s Republic of China Ministry of Foreign Affairs (FMPRC), June 25). Beijing invests in Afghanistan to further its long-term economic, strategic and political interests. Since the U.S. withdrawal last year, China has had an opportunity to advance its interests and deepen its clout in Afghanistan. When Kabul fell, China did not condemn the move and announced that it respected the choice of the Afghan people—a sign of goodwill from Beijing to the Taliban that it subscribes to the narrative that the new government has the full support of the population (Xinhua, August 16, 2021). China has never been militarily involved in Afghanistan. Uyghur militants have found safe-haven in the country for decades, but the level of threat they pose to the PRC is debated even among Chinese analysts (China Brief, February 11). Despite such long-running concerns, Beijing was unperturbed by the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan last year. The PRC kept its embassy open through the fall of Kabul, and Beijing has sustained extensive diplomatic contact with the Taliban leadership to safeguard its security, economic and strategic interests in Afghanistan (Global Times, August 17, 2021). In fact, the PRC is seeking to carry out a complex balancing act in Afghanistan. Concerns about Afghanistan becoming a safe haven for extremist groups that could target neighboring states persist, but Beijing also perceives huge opportunities in Afghanistan’s natural resources, markets and potential to serve as a key node linking western China with South and Central Asia. In order to achieve a stable and secure Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which will advance China’s interests throughout Central Asia, Beijing needs a stable Afghanistan.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Taliban, Political stability, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, China, Asia, and United States of America

42. Role of Biraderism in Democratization in Punjab, Pakistan; a Conceptual Framework

Author:
Nabila Akhtar and Qamar Fatima
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
Pakistan has been in pursuit for stable democratic system since its creation. The patronclient relationship is shaping and defining the general politics and the biraderi politics of Pakistan. These links also legitimize the politically dynamic biraderies‘ clench on means and resources as well as the transfer of these resources as a bequest to coming generations of biraderies. The process of democratization is directly correlated and undermined due to biraderism that makes its pace very sluggish and inactive. It has been considered irresistible for non-democratic forces. It is generally argued the prehistoric group identities like family, kinship and caste, or biraderi membership, played a more important role in determining voting behaviour than the individual‘s political rational preferences. This phenomenon is overwhelmingly rule in the life of an individual in a society which is still in the transitional phase of democracy. The settlement policies of social engineering of the British had worked very well in the central region Punjab specifically. This is a theoretical and analytical study that presents a conceptual framework between biraderism and democratization process. The process of democratization is a dependent variable and the dynamics of biraderism work as an independent variable.
Topic:
Democratization, Political stability, Voting, Social Networks, and Clientelism
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

43. A pillar of stability in an unstable world

Author:
Stefania Benaglia and Dylan Macchiarini Crosson
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The rising centrality of the Indo-Pacific is self-evident. What remains to be defined is the potential role the EU could play, notably as a security actor. Given capacity constraints, the EU’s objectives in the region should focus on credibility and on safeguarding shared interests – for example securing sea lines of communication, an objective also shared by Japan. Hard power remains the preferred language in the Indo-Pacific region. Australia unceremoniously dumping the French contract over US nuclear technology in the AUKUS affair, as well as India’s reluctance to take a position against Russia, a major provider of defence equipment, over its full-blown invasion of Ukraine demonstrate that being able to speak the language of power in a credible and reliable way takes precedence. While the EU will unlikely become a defence security provider à la the United States, it is now clear that it must evolve its global stance. The adoption of the EU Indo-Pacific Strategy and cross-references to it in the EU’s Strategic Compass represent an important milestone for bolstering its security and defence posture. The EU would do well to support its efforts to be a more credible security and defence actor in the Indo-Pacific by upgrading relations with its strategic partners, Japan in primis. Further operational, capabilities development, and industrial cooperation with Japan must be considered and reinforced by triangulation with other strategic partners in the region.
Topic:
Security, European Union, Political stability, and Cooperation
Political Geography:
Japan, Europe, and Asia

44. Will the European Political Community actually be useful?

Author:
Michael Emerson
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
On 6 October 2022 there will be an inaugural EU meeting at summit level, with the EU’s close neighbours also invited, to debate security and stability as part of a budding European Political Community (EPC), as proposed by President Macron with support from President Michel. However, the future functions of the EPC have only been sketched in very preliminary and summary terms, which this CEPS Explainer seeks to explore in more detail. We identify several categories: foreign policy and strategic security, and EU internal policies, consisting of energy security and climate change, economic cooperation and mobility. While foreign policy and security issues are obviously prioritised in official statements, so far in the context of Russia’s war against Ukraine, there are serious limitations over how effective this is likely to be (almost all of the EU’s most powerful allies are outside Europe). The other suggested functions link closely to the EU’s competences and resources, and these do offer scope for more solid and consensual cooperation. Overall, the EPC’s organisation and functions should be designed with all these possibilities in mind, especially serving to complement and not displace the EU’s enlargement processes.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, European Union, Political stability, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

45. The role of local governance in achieving political stability: A joint public-private effort towards sustainable development

Author:
Pranish Desai
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:
Improving local governments' performance is vital because it is the governance sphere that is closest to local communities, local businesses, and local economic activities. It is in the best interest of companies operating in municipalities to play an active role in ensuring that their host municipalities can effectively deliver services, maintain infrastructure and plan for the future, thereby catalysing sustainable development. This will not only benefit municipalities and businesses but communities at large.
Topic:
Governance, Economy, Political stability, and Municipalities
Political Geography:
Africa

46. Implications of COP26 for Africa's mining industry

Author:
Vincent Obisie-Orlu
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:
Due to the importance of critical minerals in the energy transition, the mining industry has a significant role to play in the pursuit of a net-zero future. At the same time, critical minerals mining is an environmentally damaging process, often occurring in jurisdictions with poor labour and environment standards, compounded by political instability risk. The recently concluded 26th Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) shows that Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) integration must play a larger role in the mining industry.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Political stability, Mining, Industry, and Minerals
Political Geography:
Africa

47. Footing the bill? Less legitimacy, more avoidance mark African views on taxation

Author:
Thomas Isbell
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Taxation is a key fiscal tool for domestic resource mobilization. In many African countries, however, weak tax-administration systems limit the ways in which governments can finance their development agendas and provide essential services such as health care, education, and infrastructure (Drummond, Daal, Srivastava, & Oliveira, 2012). The importance of raising resources through taxation has been heightened by the COVID-19 pandemic. Governments globally have confronted a sudden drop in tax revenue as many economic sectors have slowed amid lockdowns. Especially in developing countries, this shock has significantly curtailed governments’ ability to fund access to vital health, financial, and other services and assistance to those most affected by the pandemic (Gaspar, Hanif, Pazarbasioglu, & Saint-Amans, 2020). The reduction in tax revenue during the pandemic is likely to compound itself over time and limit how quickly developing economies can bounce back as governments lack the fiscal resources to stimulate growth. Even without a pandemic, tax revenues are relatively low across Africa. In 2019, 30 African countries averaged tax revenues totaling 16.6% of gross domestic product – half the 33.8% collected by member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD/AUC/ATAF, 2021). In addition to capacity limitations of government tax agencies, low tax revenues can be related to macroeconomic factors such as large agricultural and informal sectors, which are typically hard to tax (Di John, 2006; Mansour & Keen, 2009; Coulibaly & Gandhi, 2018; Moore, Prichard, & Fjeldstad, 2018). One current debate concerns how to tax highly digitalized businesses – which operate in African countries without necessarily having an easily taxable physical presence – in a way that is fair and doesn’t impede the growth of start-up companies (African Tax Administration Forum, 2020). But low tax revenues can also reflect micro-level factors such as citizens’ limited willingness to pay taxes (“tax morale”), a lack of knowledge about what they owe and what their taxes are used for, and their perceptions of corruption in the tax administration (OECD, 2019). If citizens regard paying taxes as a fiscal exchange or contractual relationship (Moore, 2004), these factors can affect the perceived legitimacy of taxation as a whole (D’Arcy, 2011). Beyond short- and medium-term fiscal problems, this can also have a more fundamental impact on the legitimacy of governments and political systems. The ability to raise revenue through taxes is an important marker of state capacity and political legitimacy (Brautigam, Fjeldstad, & Moore, 2008), and may contribute to government responsiveness and accountability as taxpayers demand a return on their taxes (Moore et al., 2018). How do Africans see taxation? Afrobarometer survey data collected in 34 African countries in 2019/2021 show that a majority of Africans endorse their government’s right to collect taxes. But popular support for taxation has weakened over the past decade while perceptions that people often avoid paying their taxes have increased sharply. Moreover, many Africans question the fairness of their country’s tax burden, and only half think their government is using tax revenue for the well-being of its citizens. While a majority would pay higher taxes to support young people and national development, most say they find it difficult to get information about tax requirements and uses, and many see tax officials as corrupt and untrustworthy. Such perceptions may play a role in how willingly citizens support – and comply with – their government’s tax administration.
Topic:
Political stability, Tax Systems, Legitimacy, and State Funding
Political Geography:
Africa

48. Israel and Lebanon Conclude Maritime Agreement

Author:
Sara Nowacka and Michał Wojnarowicz
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
On 27 October, Israel and Lebanon, which do not have official relations, concluded an agreement with U.S. mediation on the maritime border of the two states and the exploitation of gas deposits. The agreement will serve to increase stability in the Eastern Mediterranean, although the direct benefits for Lebanon’s economy depend on an improvement in the political situation.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Gas, Economy, Political stability, and Maritime
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

49. A Shaky Foundation: The Myth of Authoritarian Stability in the Middle East

Author:
Jon Hoffman
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
American foreign policy in the Middle East is based on a myth. For decades, policymakers have worked to prop up Middle Eastern autocracies out of the belief that they serve as the only bulwark against chaos and threats to American interests in the region. This approach gets things backward. Rather than being the solution to the region’s various problems, these actors are responsible for producing and exacerbating the greatest underlying problems in the region, and a blank check from Washington allows them to act with impunity both at home and abroad. Accordingly, U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East is in desperate need of an overhaul.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Authoritarianism, and Political stability
Political Geography:
Middle East

50. Responding to the Looming Food Crisis and Managing Political Stability in Indonesia

Author:
Bustanul Arifin and Maria Monica Wihardja
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
In this issue briefing, Dr. Bustanul Arifin, Professor of Agricultural Economics at Lampung University, and Dr. Maria Monica Wihardja, Economist and Visiting Fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, analyze the impending food crisis in Indonesia. First, they provide an overview of the global food economy and the factors affecting food price inflation in Indonesia, including COVID-19, the war in Ukraine, and rising oil and gas prices. Then, they discuss the policy measures Indonesia has adopted to bolster food security, which include initiatives to increase agricultural production and address problems at all levels of the distribution chain, including creating social welfare programs to expand food access. Looking to the future, the authors argue that protectionist and isolationist policies like import/export bans are counterproductive. Rather, food supply chains should be considered a global public good; international cooperation on protective mechanisms like global and regional food buffer stocks can help to ward off crises when unexpected disruptions in the food supply chain occur.
Topic:
Democracy, Economy, Political stability, and Food Crisis
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia