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2. Fiscal consolidation and political instability
- Author:
- Philipp Heimberger and Anna Matzner
- Publication Date:
- 05-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
- Abstract:
- This paper analyses how fiscal consolidation shocks affect political instability in advanced economies. Using data on fiscal tightening in 17 OECD countries from 1980 to 2020, we estimate dynamic effects in a local projection framework employing a narrative-based instrumental variable approach that isolates exogenous fiscal changes motivated by deficit reduction. Fiscal consolidation carries substantial short-term political costs: it lowers government approval and increases the likelihood of protests and major government crises. These effects are temporary and dissipate over time. The decline in government approval is largely accounted for by the deterioration in macroeconomic conditions following fiscal adjustment. Consistent with this mechanism, consolidations implemented during economic downturns lead to markedly larger declines in approval and a higher probability of government crises, while effects are muted in stronger economic conditions. Turning to the tax-spending composition, we find that approval declines more sharply when adjustments only rely on spending cuts. Overall, our findings provide new evidence on the political costs of fiscal tightening and point to the importance of economic conditions and policy design.
- Topic:
- Economics, Political stability, Macroeconomics, Austerity, Demonstrations, Labor Strike, and Fiscal Consolidation
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Asia, and United States of America
3. Current Dynamics in Syria and the Way Forward
- Author:
- Khogir Wirya
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- Recent events in Syria represent a turning point in the history of the Middle East, where internal dynamics are intertwined with regional and international ones. Syria is not just a theater for local conflicts, but has become an arena for competition between major powers, which directly affects the nature of possible solutions. Within this complex landscape, the Kurdish issue stands out as one of the most sensitive and urgent priorities, with its reciprocal impact on the other components of the Syrian conflict and the country’s future.
- Topic:
- Political stability, Syrian War, and Kurds
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
4. Ronnie C. Chan: The Past, Present, and Future of U.S.-China Relations
- Author:
- Ronnie C. Chan and Lien-Hang Nguyen
- Publication Date:
- 12-2025
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
- Abstract:
- December 2, 2024 — Ronnie C. Chan, Honorary Chair of Hang Lung Properties and Chair Emeritus of the Asia Society, speaks with Lien-Hang Nguyen, Director of the Weatherhead East Asian Institute at Columbia University, about the implications of the 2024 U.S. presidential election for the future of U.S.-China relations and global stability. Columbia University Interim President Katrina Armstrong and University Professor Jeffrey Sachs contribute introductory remarks.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Elections, and Political stability
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
5. Enabling Popular Participation in Transitional Justice in Somalia
- Author:
- Farhia Mohamud
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
- Abstract:
- Given the country's increasing stability, transitional justice has become an option for addressing the violence and gross human rights violations that have marked Somalia's history from the colonial period to the present. Experiences in other African countries over the past three decades show that transitional justice processes are more likely to be effective if they are rooted in popular participation, particularly of victims/survivors and communities affected by violence. This study explores emerging measures linked to transitional justice in Somalia, which are rooted in local practices and build on local resources, to provide recommendations to state authorities, civil society, and multilateral actors, including the African Union, for enabling popular participation and thereby a more contextual, inclusive, and effective transitional justice process in Somalia. Based on extensive fieldwork with 114 participants in Mogadishu, Dhuusamreeb, and Gaalkacyo, the study examines formal and non-formal measures already occurring in Somalia to identify ways in which future transitional justice processes could enable people's agency over the goals, forms, and outcomes of measures dealing with the past.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Human Rights, Political stability, Transitional Justice, and Political Participation
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Somalia
6. Europe’s Strategic Imperative: Advancing Sustainability for Global Stability
- Author:
- Reinhold Brender
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- Europe’s long-term security depends not only on military strength, but also on global stability shaped by sustainable development and effective multilateralism. From the outset, Donald Trump’s second presidency has placed additional strain on an international system already under pressure, further weakening key pillars of the rules-based international order. Geopolitical divisions continue to paralyse the UN Security Council on critical issues. In this increasingly fragmented landscape, the EU must advance a dual security imperative: strengthening its defence capabilities while tackling the root causes of instability beyond its borders. This policy note outlines six strategic priorities for the EU to advance security through sustainability: (i) implementing the UN Pact for the Future; (ii) helping finance global sustainability through more innovative and coordinated mechanisms; (iii) shaping a strategy for EU engagement with the Global South that reflects geopolitical realities and mutual interests; (iv) delivering on the promise of Global Gateway by addressing operational shortcomings and sharpening its strategic focus; (v) rethinking the SDG framework beyond 2030 to sustain global development momentum; and (vi) winning the battle of narratives through stronger, more strategic communication and credible engagement. These priorities are examined against the backdrop of growing geopolitical fragmentation and structural vulnerabilities that shape both global stability and Europe’s strategic outlook.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, European Union, Political stability, Multilateralism, Economic Development, and Sustainability
- Political Geography:
- Europe
7. Saraya Ansar al-Sunnah’s Micro-insurgency in Syria
- Author:
- Daniele Garofalo
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- Saraya Ansar al-Sunnah—a Salafi-jihadist “micro-insurgency” group operating mainly in northern Syria’s rural and peripheral areas—stands out among the armed factions to emerge after the fall of Former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024. Led by Abu Aisha al-Shami, the group consists of several hundred fighters, including former Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) members, while displaying strong ideological affinity and potential for future collaboration with the Islamic State (IS). Saraya Ansar al-Sunnah’s focus on sectarian violence and symbolic attacks poses a threat to local stability and risks escalating wider community conflicts in Syria, despite the group’s limited overt military capacity.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Insurgency, Sectarianism, Islamic State, Political stability, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Post-Conflict, Salafi-Jihadism, and Saraya Ansar al-Sunnah
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
8. Silence in the Sahel does not Equal Stability
- Author:
- Nina Wilén
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- The Sahel is no longer on the frontpages. In the past few years – even in the past few months – the geopolitical context has changed radically. The Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine understandably turned European attention to the East in 2022. The Israel – Palestine armed conflict which restarted in 2023 and has taken unprecedented proportions has also called for attention, while the last three years of Rwanda- supported rebel invasion in the East of the DRC recently caught the news. In more recent weeks, the new US administration’s deeply disturbing dismantling of national institutions and international order has predictably stolen the headlines. Yet, in the meantime the different crises which have plagued the Sahel over more than a decade are continuing and the situation is worsening. The military regimes which came to power in the latest coup wave in the Sahel region on the promise of quelling jihadist violence have not been able to deliver on this promise. Instead, jihadist groups are expanding across the region, with deadlier attacks against civilians in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, the three states which created the Alliance of Sahelian States (AES) in 2023. The Sahel is today the region in the world which is the most affected by jihadist violence. The AES countries are also experiencing a deepening authoritarian turn, as the transitions to democratic elections and return to constitutional order have been stalled with continuous extensions of transitional period and repression against opposition voices. These developments are unfolding within a heavily restricted media landscape, where local independent and foreign journalists and news agencies are either silenced through repression or driven into exile, while civil society faces continued intimidation and oppression, including forced military recruitment, arbitrary arrests and in some cases summary executions. This article analyses the latest developments in the security and political sphere in the Sahel with a focus on the AES states. It examines the expansion of jihadist violence and assesses the political situation. It argues that despite the current geopolitical context and Europe’s decreasing influence, there is still a need for the EU and its member states to stay engaged. It is crucial to closely monitor developments in the region to better grasp the political and security landscape, and potential implications both within and beyond the African continent. This article is the first of a series of two analyzing the shifting political and security landscape in the Sahel. The next article will examine the AES countries’ shifting regional and international partnerships.
- Topic:
- Security, Authoritarianism, Political stability, Violence, Coup, and Salafi-Jihadism
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sahel
9. The Fog: The Opacity That Warns
- Author:
- Joris Van Bladel
- Publication Date:
- 10-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- Now in its fourth year, Russia’s war on Ukraine has become more than a battlefield confrontation. It is fire, ice, and fog at once: the hot war in Ukraine fought with mass, drones, and attrition; the cold confrontation with NATO, centred on escalation management; and the fog of Russia’s internal struggle, marked by fatigue, militarisation, repression, and a growing social isolation, as much of the population seeks to distance itself from the war both mentally and in daily life. Considered alone, each dimension distorts the picture. Taken together, they reveal a Russia both fragile and resilient, archaic and adaptive. This is Part III: The Fog, examining Russia’s internal front—the least legible dimension of the conflict. The system performs strength while pressure accumulates beneath the surface: raison d’état coexists with societal passivity, producing fragility that yields lurches rather than orderly decline. This Policy Brief maps that opacity through an economy of exhaustion, the “veteran variable” as battlefield costs migrate home, a society that holds still under pressure, elite cohesion sustained by fear and performance, and the indicators that often precede sudden shifts. The policy lesson is simple: do not mistake opacity for stability—prepare for discontinuity, monitor the silent front, and prioritise endurance over spectacle.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, European Union, Political stability, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
10. Fragile States Index 2024 – Annual Report
- Author:
- Nate Haken, Paul Turner, Emily Sample, Fatoumata Maiga, and Perin Arkun
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Fund for Peace
- Abstract:
- The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and fragile states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Authoritarianism, Fragile States, and Political stability
- Political Geography:
- India, Brazil, Mozambique, Senegal, Tunisia, Somalia, Balochistan, South Sudan, Sahel, Global Focus, Niger, and Burkina Faso