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22. Northern Kosovo: Asserting Sovereignty amid Divided Loyalties
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Tensions are rising in Kosovo’s restive Serb-majority north, as Pristina enforces its writ against the backdrop of continuing disputes with Belgrade. The parties and outside supporters should first work on defusing the short-term risk of violence and then look for ways to foster lasting stability.
- Topic:
- Sovereignty, Political stability, Domestic Politics, and Violence
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, and Kosovo
23. Landscape of Change: Syria and the Middle East after the Assad Regime's Fall
- Author:
- Sara Nowacka, Aleksandra Maria Spancerska, and Michał Wojnarowicz
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- A successful offensive by Syrian rebels in December this year led to the fall of one of the most brutal modern regimes. Most Syrians have welcomed the end of Bashar al-Assad’s rule, although divisions within the opposition forces pose a risk to Syria’s potential stability after 13 years of civil war. To reduce them, international assistance is needed to rebuild Syrian institutions and to help hold accountable those regime members responsible for war crimes and crimes against humanity.
- Topic:
- Regime Change, Political stability, Syrian War, Accountability, Institutions, Bashar al-Assad, Post-Conflict, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
24. The role of political compromise in South Africa’s Government of National Unity: Balancing competing interests for stability and peacebuilding
- Author:
- Mahlatse Ragolane and Nthabiseng Gratitude Khoza
- Publication Date:
- 11-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Conflict Trends
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- The transition from apartheid to democracy in South Africa remains a defining global moment in history emblematic of how political compromise can transform a divided society. Central to this transformation was the establishment of the Government of National Unity (GNU), a power-sharing arrangement that functioned from 1994 to 1997. GNUs are generally formed with the aim of bringing together the broadest possible spectrum of political interests in response to a crisis. GNUs are formed to achieve national interests, such as nation-building, social order, and peace and stability.1 After a peaceful transition in 1994, South Africa was readmitted as a member of the international community of nations. This time, it was recognised as a constitutional democratic state, relinquishing its pariah status. The effort to establish South Africa’s position in international relations began earnestly, guided by its foundational values and principles, as enshrined in the Constitution.2 The GNU was an unprecedented act of political compromise created to address deep-rooted historical grievances, while managing the competing interests of various political actors. Fast forward to 2024, and the political landscape in South Africa leading up to the recent elections was marked by significant shifts and uncertain developments. This is due to the rise of small parties, declining support for traditional parties, such as the African National Congress (ANC), and increasing public dissatisfaction with governance, which created an environment characterised by uncertainty and fragmentation.3 This environment set the stage for the formation of the GNU – a coalition formation driven by the need to stabilise a fractured political environment and address deep-seated socioeconomic challenges. South Africa has now entered an era of multi-party governance across all three spheres of government.4 Unlike the historic GNU of 1994, which emerged from the widespread recognition of the merits of compromise among the most significant political actors5 and the fight against injustices by ANC and other movements, the 2024 GNU was born out of electoral necessity and a fragmented electorate. This development is likely to influence changes to the existing governance framework to facilitate cooperative and stable governance across the three spheres of government.6 South Africa is at a pivotal moment and needs to ensure the stabilisation of the political landscape, while simultaneously laying the foundations for peace, reconciliation and sustainable development. While the diverse perspectives within a GNU can lead to adaptive and responsive policies, the need for consensus can also result in rigid compromises that slow down the government’s ability to act swiftly in response to stability and peacebuilding.7 This article delves into the intricacies of the GNU, focusing on how political compromise can be used as a tool to balance competing interests and promote stability, peace and governance in South Africa.
- Topic:
- Governance, Elections, Political stability, and Peacebuilding
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Africa
25. Why renewable energy matters in the context of peace and stability
- Author:
- Hannah Lentschig and Louise Van Schaik
- Publication Date:
- 11-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- Many fragile and conflict-affected states (FCAS) face significant challenges related to energy access, which exacerbates instability and hinders development. Reliance on fossil fuel supply chains – frequently controlled by conflict parties – can also undermine the peacebuilding and peacekeeping efforts of UN missions often operating in these contexts. Renewable energy, particularly decentralized systems like solar microgrids, presents an opportunity to address these issues by fostering greater energy security, supporting socio-economic development, and enhancing both conflict and environmental resilience of local communities. This policy brief explores the potential of renewable energy to contribute to promoting peace and stability in FCAS. Despite the many opportunities it offers, several barriers such as political instability, security risks, and financing challenges can impede the deployment of renewable energy in these settings. The brief discusses three potential entry points for policy action: improving coordination between the climate, energy, and peacebuilding sectors; raising awareness and enhancing dialogue about the local peace related dividends of renewable energy; and attracting more public and private investment through de-risking mechanisms. Integrating renewable energy into peacebuilding efforts and facilitating financing of community-led off-grid projects are crucial for harnessing its full potential. It is time to translate this potential into action.
- Topic:
- Fragile States, Political stability, Peace, Renewable Energy, and Fossil Fuels
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
26. Jordan on the Edge: Pressures from the War in Gaza and the Incoming Trump Administration
- Author:
- Annelle Sheline
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
- Abstract:
- This brief examines the implications of the ongoing Israeli–Palestinian and Israeli–Lebanese conflicts for the Kingdom of Jordan. While once seen as a central actor in the Israel–Palestine conflict, Jordan has not received significant consideration by the U.S. foreign policy establishment since the Hamas attacks on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. This oversight could prove perilous, as a destabilized Jordan would have broad effects across the region. This brief draws on firsthand author interviews with top-level Jordanian officials, Islamist leaders, journalists, and other experts to examine the kingdom’s outlook. Since Jordan reached a peace deal with Israel in 1994, the kingdom has emerged as a strong American partner in the Middle East, exemplified by the two countries signing a fourth Memorandum of Understanding in 2022, in which the U.S. agreed to provide Jordan with $1.45 billion of assistance annually. Despite the assistance, the U.S.–Jordanian relationship has become increasingly uncertain as the United States provides unconditional support for Israeli military actions in Gaza and Lebanon. Opposition to Israel’s wars has united the Jordanian public, which is distancing itself from the U.S. and Israel by widespread participation in the boycotts of American and European products and growing support for the main Islamist political party. The prospect of Israel annexing the West Bank, an idea increasingly bandied about within Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Cabinet, would be especially threatening to Jordan. Many Jordanians now question if Israel aims not merely to prevent the creation of a Palestinian state, but to revive the idea that Jordan is Palestine — a notion that is categorically rejected by the Jordanian government. A large-scale exodus of Palestinians from the West Bank into Jordan would lead to a profound crisis. With the kingdom already hosting over a million refugees — more of whom may arrive following Assad’s downfall and subsequent unrest — beset with economic problems, and incapable of providing water to its existing population, King Abdullah II’s continued rule could be jeopardized. While the Trump administration’s position on Israel’s potential seizure of the West Bank remains to be seen, it is clear that a destabilized Jordan would be at odds with U.S. interests. Ultimately, to fulfill his campaign pledge to end the forever wars in the Middle East, Trump may have to choose between reining in Israeli actions, or risk greater conflict in Jordan and beyond.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Political stability, Donald Trump, Armed Conflict, Regional Politics, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, Lebanon, Jordan, and United States of America
27. Russia Is Down, But Not Out, in Central Asia
- Author:
- Maximilian Hess
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
- Abstract:
- Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has weakened its influence in Central Asia, especially in Kazakhstan. Russia is no longer a regional hegemon, which may increase regional instability. Tensions between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are especially dangerous. Despite Moscow’s diminished influence in Central Asia, regional states cannot afford to completely ignore Russian interests. Western hopes for Central Asian gas resources to be pumped westwards and circumvent Russia remain unlikely to be fulfilled.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Gas, Political stability, Regional Power, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Central Asia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan
28. From shock and awe to stability and flaws: Iraq’s post-invasion journey
- Author:
- Hamzeh Hadad
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- In the 20 years since the US-led invasion, Iraq’s political order and elite have proven surprisingly resilient in the face of numerous challenges, including terrorism, civil war, threats of secession, and mass protests. The informal consociational system, party politics, patronage networks, and competing paramilitaries are enduring features of Iraqi governance that have maintained stability even as they present many long-term problems. Despite the system’s resilience, Iraq remains deeply challenged by corruption, a lack of economic diversity and development, climate vulnerability, and some persistent security deficits. Europeans should acknowledge the realities of Iraqi governance and work within them to achieve shared European-Iraqi interests rather than seeking to impose their own ideals or solutions. Europeans could, for example, help Iraqis to manage their youth bulge problem, digitise the economy, and prepare for and adapt to climate change.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Political stability, Iraq War, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Europe, and Middle East
29. Fragile States Index 2023 – Annual Report
- Author:
- Nate Haken, Daniel Woodburn, Emily Sample, Wendy Wilson, and John Madden
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Fund for Peace
- Abstract:
- The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
- Topic:
- War, Territorial Disputes, Fragile States, Political stability, Peace, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Sudan, Turkey, Ukraine, France, Armenia, Peru, Guyana, Global Focus, Burkina Faso, and Nagorno-Karabakh
30. The Syrian Civil War Twelve Years On: Can There Be a Constructive Role for Greece?
- Author:
- Ioannis N. Grigoriadis and Loukas I. Papavasileiou
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Continual and ever-growing foreign involvement led to the internationalization of the armed conflict and turned Syria into a battleground for the strategic competition of several powers. The Kremlin has long viewed Hafez and Bashar al-Assad as indispensable partners in the Middle East and has repeatedly offered its diplomatic and military support in an attempt to achieve its own strategic objectives. Given the destabilizing effects the unending Syrian crisis has had on Middle Eastern and Eastern Mediterranean security, Greece maintains a profound interest in the resolution of the conflict. Greece appointed a Special Envoy for Syria in May 2020 with a view to reinvigorating its policy vis-à-vis the Syrian crisis. Greece’s successful re-engagement with key Arab countries and improved relations with other regional actors could pave the way for a more prominent Greek role in Syria. This could entail reinforcing its diplomatic cooperation with the EU Delegation to Syria, leading the EU humanitarian relief effort following the devastating earthquakes that hit Syria on 6 February 2023, and formulating a realistic and forward-looking strategy for the future of the Syrian people, including provisions for the voluntary repatriation of refugees and the protection of minority rights.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Refugees, Political stability, Syrian War, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Greece, and Syria