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302. Socio-economic Inequality and the Failure of Development Strategies for the Middle East. Arab Transformations Policy Brief 3
- Author:
- Andrea Teti and Pamela Abbott
- Publication Date:
- 04-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Arab Transformations Project, University of Aberdeen
- Abstract:
- The main drivers of the Arab Uprisings were economic grievances and a perceived growth in inequalities. Poor economic growth and lack of inclusive policies are the underlying causes of insecurity in the region The main concerns of people in the MENA are economic security and corruption. People think that the best way in which the EU can help their countries in the wake of the Uprisings is with support for inclusive economic development. The EU needs to develop its policies so that they bring economic benefits to the countries in the region as well as to the EU the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme under grant agreement no #320214 Summary: The main drivers of the Arab Uprisings were economic grievances and a perceived growth in inequalities. Poor economic growth and lack of inclusive policies are the underlying causes of insecurity in the region The main concerns of people in the MENA are economic security and corruption. People think that the best way in which the EU can help their countries in the wake of the Uprisings is with support for inclusive economic development. The EU needs to develop its policies so that they bring economic benefits to the countries in the region as well as to the EU
- Topic:
- International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
303. Against the Tide: Why Gender Attitudes Remain Profoundly Conservative in Arab Countries: Arab Transformations Policy Brief No 5
- Author:
- Andrea Teti and Pamela Abbott
- Publication Date:
- 04-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Arab Transformations Project, University of Aberdeen
- Abstract:
- The Arab region retains deeply conservative gender attitudes against the trend of moves to more liberal values generally across the globe. Arab citizens say they support gender equality but women are generally treated as second class citizens especially in family law. Islam is often blamed for gender conservatism, but the systematic repression of political alternatives to Islamism and often-perfunctory way in which women's equality agendas are treated by autocratic regimes are more important. Efforts to promote gender equality and the empowerment of women need to be led by Arab women and men and incorporate Islamic feminists as well as secular ones
- Topic:
- Gender Issues and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
304. Canada' s Trade Minister Is Ready to Make a Difference at the WTO
- Author:
- François-Philippe Champagne
- Publication Date:
- 10-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- There is an inverse relationship between the number of kilometres François-Philippe Champagne travels and the amount of attention he receives. Canada’s trade minister was in Morocco over the Canadian Thanksgiving weekend for a World Trade Organization (WTO) meeting, and in Mexico less than a week later for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s first official visit to the country.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Canada
305. Environmental Gems in Trade Agreements: Little-known Clauses for Progressive Trade Agreements
- Author:
- Jean-Frederic Morin and Rosalie Nadeau
- Publication Date:
- 10-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- Trade agreements contain an increasing number of environmental provisions. Some of these provisions now relate to precise environmental issues, such as biodiversity or hazardous waste management. Certain trade agreements even devote entire chapters to environmental protection. However, the rate of innovative environmental clauses per agreement has declined over the years. This paper draws attention to some of the lesser-known provisions encountered in five agreements or fewer. These “legal one-hit wonders” do not often reach the billboard, despite their uniqueness and creativity.
- Topic:
- Environment and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
306. Trump and the IMF
- Author:
- Susan Schadler
- Publication Date:
- 10-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- So far, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has defied the odds in its relations with the administration of US President Donald Trump. In contrast to the administration’s at times stormy ride with some other international organizations and agreements, relations have been rather calm — even friendly — between the United States and the IMF. There has been no talk of cutting US funding to the IMF, no threat of pulling out of the organization, no statements casting aspersions on the IMF and no “tweet storms” on specific events involving the IMF. In fact, although not directly from President Trump, statements in support of actions or positions of the IMF have surfaced. Why has the IMF escaped the antagonism of the new administration, and can it continue to do so?
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
307. Operationalizing the Blue Economy in Small States: Lessons from the Early Movers
- Author:
- Cyrus Rustomjee
- Publication Date:
- 09-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- The blue economy — a concept and framework for economic activity that recognizes and seeks to maximize the potential for economic growth, employment and diversification through the sustainable use of resources from the ocean — has vast economic potential for small states; however, they confront several unique international governance challenges in pursuing a marine-resource-based development framework; have few comparative lessons of good practice to draw on; and face several practical obstacles in taking the first steps to operationalize the blue economy, resulting in modest progress. Collective experience highlights six key priorities in operationalizing the blue economy. Small states can take several new initiatives, supported by regional and international development partners, to focus attention on and coalesce policy effort and resources.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
308. Evaluating the Need for Pipelines: A False Narrative for the Canadian Economy
- Author:
- Jeff Rubin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- The claim that additional pipeline capacity to tidewater will unlock significantly higher prices for bitumen is not corroborated by either past or current market conditions. Recent international commitments to reduce global carbon emissions over the next three decades will significantly reduce the size of future oil markets. Only the lowest-cost producers will remain commercially viable while high-cost producers will be forced to exit the market. The National Energy Board should consider a rapidly decarbonizing global economy when assessing the need and commercial viability of further pipelines in the country and use Western Canadian Select as the price benchmark when evaluating the economic viability of any new oil sands projects. Pension plans need to stress test their long-term investments in the oil sands in the context of a decarbonizing global economy.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Canada
309. Strengthening the Debt Sustainability Framework for Caribbean Small States
- Author:
- Cyrus Rustomjee
- Publication Date:
- 08-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- Since 2005, two debt sustainability frameworks and country-level debt sustainability analyses designed by the International Monetary Fund and World Bank have provided standardized tools to measure and assess debt sustainability. While they have a number of advantages, the utility of these tools for small states is limited by several factors, including insufficient treatment of exogenous shocks, limitations in the tools used to assess debt sustainability and a narrow definition of debt sustainability. This has reduced their reliability in assessing debt sustainability and as a mechanism to help inform both countries’ debt management policies and donor, lender and investor decision making. Several practical modifications can strengthen these tools and improve their utility for small states.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Caribbean
310. Starting the Dialogue on Climate Engineering Governance: A World Commission
- Author:
- Edward A. Parson
- Publication Date:
- 08-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- Climate engineering can, if appropriately governed within a coherent overall climate change strategy, reduce risks beyond what mitigation and adaptation can achieve alone, and is probably essential to achieve the Paris Agreement temperature targets. Climate engineering also poses significant new risks, and needs expanded research and scrutiny in climate assessments.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and Climate Finance
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
311. Restructuring Sovereign Debt: An English Law Opportunity
- Author:
- Steven L. Schwarcz
- Publication Date:
- 07-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- Unsustainable sovereign debt is a serious problem for nations, as well as their citizens and creditors, and a threat to global financial stability. The existing contractual approach to restructuring unsustainable debt is inadequate and no treaty or other multilateral legal framework exists, or is currently likely to be adopted, that would enable nations to restructure unsustainable debt. Because a significant percentage of sovereign debt is governed by English law, there is an opportunity to modify the law to fairly and equitably facilitate the restructuring of unsustainable sovereign debt. This policy brief proposes a novel legal framework, focusing on governing law, for doing that. This framework would legislatively achieve the equivalent of the ideal goal of including perfect collective action clauses in all English-law-governed sovereign debt contracts. It therefore should ensure the continuing legitimacy and attractiveness of English law as the governing law for future sovereign debt contracts. Even absent the legislative proposal, the analysis in this policy brief can contribute to the incremental development of sovereign debt restructuring norms.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
312. Issues in Bringing Canadian Fintech to the International Stage
- Author:
- James Hinton, Domenico Lombardi, and Joanna Wajda
- Publication Date:
- 06-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- Given financial technology’s (fintech’s) priority on the global stage, and the Canadian federal budget’s focus on innovation and the middle class, now is the time for Canada to assess its position and develop a national strategy on fintech. The aim of this policy brief is to provide a general description of the fintech industry in Canada, and to describe and draw attention to two complementary aspects of developing a fintech strategy for Canada: first, encouraging domestic fintech innovation — through open data and payment systems — and second, encouraging international expansion — through international agreements among regulators and comprehensive intellectual property strategies. For Canada to be a contender in fintech, Canadian policy makers need to target both domestic growth and international expansion of the sector. In addition to increasing the availability of funding, removing regulatory uncertainty and taking the lead on a national fintech strategy, policy makers should assess the merits of access to data and payments systems for stimulating domestic fintech growth. Increased patent generation and ownership, greater integration of Canadian technology in standards and international agreements with regulators will allow Canadian fintechs to build on their success internationally. The Hamburg G20 Summit on July 7-8, 2017, presents an opportunity to become more informed about the potential financial stability implications from countries already pursuing national fintech strategies.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Canada
313. Digital Entrepreneurship: Expanding the Economic Frontier in the Mediterranean
- Author:
- Santana Moisés
- Publication Date:
- 09-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- IEMed/EuroMeSCo
- Abstract:
- The goal of this paper is to introduce the promotion of technology-based entrepreneurship as an engine for Mediterranean economic growth, with an emphasis on the role of entrepreneurs. Without avoiding or undermining current problems or challenges, this document takes a look at the Mediterranean Basin free of stereotypes and from a constructive viewpoint. Hence it applies to the Mediterranean the words spoken by Shimon Peres when he received the Nobel Peace Prize together with Yasser Arafat and Yitzhak Rabin in 1994: “A Middle East that is not a killing field but a field of creativity and growth.”
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
314. The Qatar Crisis
- Author:
- Marc Lynch and Stephanie Dahle
- Publication Date:
- 10-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
- Abstract:
- On June 5, 2017, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates launched a campaign against Qatar. Tensions between these Gulf Cooperation Council members were nothing new, but few anticipated the sudden escalation or the intensity of the campaign. The anti-Qatar campaign leaders then failed to achieve a rapid resolution of the crisis in their favor through a Qatari capitulation. More than four months later, the GCC remains badly divided and both sides are increasingly entrenched in their positions. To make sense of this political conflict, POMEPS is pleased to release this collection of essays by a wide range of leading scholars published in The Monkey Cage and in POMEPS Studies over the last several years. The collection is divided into four major sections: the origins and course of the current conflict; regional responses; how the Arab uprisings impacted the GCC; and background on the divisive question of Islamism and the Muslim Brotherhood.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
315. Olive Cultivation in the Galilee, 1948–1955: Hegemony and Resistance
- Author:
- Jeffrey Reger
- Publication Date:
- 06-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Palestine Studies
- Institution:
- Institute for Palestine Studies
- Abstract:
- Drawing on Arabic, English, and Hebrew language sources from the British and Israeli archives, this article seeks to bridge the catastrophic rupture of 1948 to the early 1950s and to trace the changing relationship between ordinary Palestinian olive cultivators in the Galilee and the newly established Israeli state. In contrast with studies that center on the continued expulsion of Palestinians and extension of control over land by the state and state-supported actors in the aftermath of the Nakba, this study examines those Palestinians who stayed on their land and how they responded to Israeli agricultural and food control policies that they saw as discriminatory to the point of being existential threats. Beyond analysis of Israeli state policy toward olive growers and olive oil producers, this article brings in rare Palestinian voices from the time, highlighting examples of Palestinian resistance to the Israeli state’s practices of confiscation and discrimination.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, International Political Economy, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Israel
316. The Political Economy of Carbon Pricing Policy Design
- Author:
- Joseph E. Aldy
- Publication Date:
- 10-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the choice between—and design of—CO2 cap-and-trade and tax policies through a political-economy lens. It draws from insights in economics and political economy to highlight important public policy principles and policy options in carbon-pricing policy design. The paper illustrates each of these insights with examples from cap-and-trade and tax-policy experiences. Revealed political preferences about carbon-pricing-policy design can, in practice, inform our understanding of how decision-makers weigh various policy principles, as well as policy objectives. The balance of the paper examines the following design choices: establishing and phasing-in policy targets; setting the point of compliance and scope of coverage; addressing uncertainties in emission and cost outcomes under carbon pricing; updating carbon-pricing targets over time; using revenue and other forms of economic value created by carbon pricing; mitigating adverse competitiveness impacts of pricing carbon; accounting for the existing, complex policy landscape in designing carbon pricing; and linking of carbon-pricing programs. The final section concludes with a discussion of policy implications and next steps for policy-relevant scholarship.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy, Climate Finance, and Global Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
317. International Gas Outlook and Implications for Developing Tanzania’s Gas Projects
- Author:
- Columbia Centre on Sustainable Investment
- Publication Date:
- 12-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- This brief, reviews recent international gas developments, the outlook in this regard and implications for the development of proposed offshore gas projects in Tanzania. As the country aims to benefit from its gas discoveries by increasing its domestic gas use, it also outlines some of the trade-offs and considerations that need to be taken into account when negotiating the domestic gas allocation.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and Climate Finance
- Political Geography:
- Tanzania
318. The Role of IPAs in Advancing Sustainable Development
- Author:
- Columbia Centre on Sustainable Investment
- Publication Date:
- 11-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
- Abstract:
- Every year the World Association of Investment Promotion Agencies (WAIPA) surveys its members. This survey, conducted in 2017, polled over 90 agencies on numerous aspect
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
319. Green Foreign Direct Investment In Developing Countries
- Author:
- Columbia Centre on Sustainable Investment
- Publication Date:
- 10-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- The message is by now clear: our global economy must be fundamentally reoriented and redeployed in order to achieve the SDGs and the commitments of the Paris Climate Agreement. This requires action by all stakeholders, including non-financial and financial firms, debt and equity investors, government policymakers, and consumers. In terms of the amount of money required, it has been estimated that meeting the SDGs will require $5 to $7 trillion annually, with investment needs for developing countries amounting to roughly $3.3 to $4.5 trillion per year. While a big picture view of and strategic thinking regarding the entire economic ecosystem is necessary to generate such investments, this paper, produced in conjunction with the UN Inquiry into the Design of a Sustainable Financial System, focuses on the actual and potential role of one type of financial flow—FDI—in achieving the transition to a low-carbon, just and sustainable world and, more specifically, FDI flows into developing countries.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and Climate Finance
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
320. Designing a Legal Regime to Capture Capital Gains Tax on Indirect Transfers of Mineral and Petroleum Rights: A Practical Guide
- Author:
- Columbia Centre on Sustainable Investment
- Publication Date:
- 10-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- When a local asset (or a right relating to such asset) is sold, a country will generally have jurisdiction to levy a capital gains tax on the sale, both under domestic law and international treaty. This is called taxation of a “direct” transfer of a local asset. However, taxation becomes increasingly complicated when a company located offshore owns the local asset. Further difficulties arise when the local asset is held by a chain of corporations located in tax havens. An “indirect” transfer occurs when the shares of the domestic subsidiary, the shares of the foreign company with a branch in the country, or the shares of the holding company are sold, instead of the asset.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
321. Conference Report: Climate Change and Sustainable Investment in Natural Resources: From Consensus to Action
- Author:
- Columbia Centre on Sustainable Investment
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- A conference report on CCSI’s Conference on “Climate Change and Sustainable Investment in Natural Resources: From Consensus to Action” is available here, and a shorter outcome document , which was disseminated at COP22, is available here. These documents summarize the discussions at the eleventh annual Columbia International Investment Conference, which took place on November 2-3, 2016, at Columbia University. The Conference offered a high-level opportunity to discuss how countries can reduce their greenhouse gas emissions in accordance with the Paris Agreement, while also advancing the Sustainable Development Goals, and in particular the important implications for the world’s approach to natural resource investments. It featured leaders from government, the private sector, civil society, and academia, and brought together nearly 400 participants. In the lead-up to the Conference, CCSI also published a Blog Series on the Earth Institute’s State of the Planet Blog.
- Topic:
- Climate Change and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
322. Informe sobre sostenibilidad en España 2017
- Author:
- Ana Belén Sanchez
- Publication Date:
- 11-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Fundación Alternativas
- Abstract:
- Lo que este IIº Informe sobre sostenibilidad plantea es que conviene pasar a la acción, sin más demora, si queremos evitar situaciones catastróficas. Los datos son concluyentes. En 40 años hemos doblado las emisiones de carbono, dentro de unos años habrá más plásticos que peces en los mares, con la desaparición de miles de especies marinas; la energía sigue dependiendo de materias fósiles y 7 millones de personas mueren al año por contaminación. Los desórdenes atmosféricos se suceden, amenazando territorios y millones de personas. Es como si la madre naturaleza protestara ó castigara los despropósitos de sus descarriados hijos, los humanos.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Spain
323. The state of the European Union 2017: Relaunching Europe
- Author:
- Fundación Alternativas
- Publication Date:
- 06-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Fundación Alternativas
- Abstract:
- The year since the publication of our previous report in April 2016 has been nothing short of an annus horribilis for the European Union. The victory for Leave in the UK referendum was followed by the triumph of Donald Trump in the US elections and his stated support for the further weakening of the EU, an attitude that the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, has described as a threat. At the same time, there have been a number of significant events, both in Europe and elsewhere in the world, which we analyse in this 6th Report on the State of the EU, produced in partnership between Fundación Alternativas and the Friedrich Ebert Foundation
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and Brexit
- Political Geography:
- Europe
324. VI Informe sobre El estado de la Unión Europea 2017: Relanzar Europa
- Author:
- Fundación Alternativas
- Publication Date:
- 05-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Fundación Alternativas
- Abstract:
- El periodo comprendido entre la publicación del anterior Informe –abril 2016– y el actual se podría calificar, sin exagerar, como el annus horribilis de la Unión Europea (UE). Al referendo británico que se inclinó por la ruptura con la Unión, el brexit, se ha sumado el triunfo de Donald Trump en las elecciones norteamericanas y su manifestado deseo de que se produzcan nuevos brexits. Una amenaza en palabras del presidente del Consejo Europeo Tusk. Entre medias se han sucedido muchos acontecimientos en la vida europea y global que se analizan en este VI Informe sobre el estado de la UE, producto de la colaboración de la Fundación Alternativas y de la Fundación Friedrich Ebert.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and Brexit
- Political Geography:
- Europe
325. The impact and consequences of Brexit on acquired rights of EU citizens living in the UK and British citizens living in the EU-27
- Author:
- Antonio Fernández Tomás
- Publication Date:
- 04-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Fundación Alternativas
- Abstract:
- La Fundación Alternativas presenta un nuevo estudio: ¨The impact and consequences of Brexit on acquired rights of EU citizens living in the UK and British citizens living in the EU-27¨. Informe encargado y financiado por el Parlamento Europeo, ha sido elaborado por Antonio Fernández Tomás y Diego López Garrido.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and Brexit
- Political Geography:
- Europe
326. European Strategic Autonomy: Distant but Irresistible
- Author:
- Michal Šimečka
- Publication Date:
- 02-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Institute of International Relations Prague
- Abstract:
- Under pressure from overlapping crises, writes Michal Šimečka in his newest policy paper, the European Union is embracing a more assertive role in security. The election of Donald Trump has added a further sense of urgency and purpose to EU defence cooperation. The pursuit of European strategic autonomy is not just a matter of upgrading capabilities, building institutions, or re-calibrating EU–NATO cooperation. It is also a struggle to re-invent the EU’s identity. The Czech Republic emerged as a supporter of the new dynamic, but Prague should do more to back its rhetorical support with tangible commitments and policy leadership.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Europe
327. The ‘Belt and Road’ Initiative and the London Market – the Next Steps in Renminbi Internationalization
- Author:
- Liu Dongmin
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The Chinese government seeks a more prominent role for China’s currency, the renminbi, in the international financial system. Its efforts to establish the renminbi as an international currency – like the US dollar – have hitherto emphasized relatively limited applications such as trade settlement and exchange rate arbitrage. However, recent market and policy developments point to the internationalization process henceforth being driven more by the renminbi’s status as a reserve currency
- Topic:
- International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China
328. Iran–China Cooperation in the Silk Road Economic Belt: From Strategic Understanding to Operational Understanding
- Author:
- Mohsen Shariatinia and Hamidreza Azizi
- Publication Date:
- 11-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- Iran served as a bridge in the ancient Silk Road, connecting the East and the West. It also has great potential to play an important role in the new Silk Road. The present study analyzes the factors affecting Iran–China cooperation in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative at the strategic and operational levels. This article shows that, at the strategic level, Iran defines this project as an opportunity to improve its status in the world economy, expanding its room to manoeuvre in the international arena and developing its ties with China, a rising great power. At the operational level, the opportunities and challenges for Iran–China cooperation could be summarized as pertaining to five realms within the Silk Road Economic Belt Initiative: policy coordination, facilitation of connectivity, unimpeded trade, financial integration and people-to-people bonds. The present study asserts that the main opportunity for cooperation between the two countries lies in facilitating connectivity and that the key challenge is financial integration.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- China and Iran
329. The Belt and Road Initiative in China’s Emerging Grand Strategy of Connective Leadership
- Author:
- Giovanni Andornino
- Publication Date:
- 10-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- As Chinese leaders endeavor to maintain the international environment aligned with their strategic aim of realizing the “dream of national rejuvenation,” the remarkable increase in China’s capabilities, coupled with uncertainty in the global economy and the ambivalent attitude of the USA toward the international order, poses fresh challenges to Beijing’s foreign policy. The present paper argues that a lexicographic preference for the mitigation of the risk of pushback against China’s core interests underpins the Belt and Road Initiative. Pursuing a strategy of credible reassurance commensurate to the shift in the distribution of power in China’s neighborhood and globally, President Xi Jinping’s administration has been cultivating a form of connective leadership that commits China to the encapsulation of the Belt and Road Initiative for transregional connectivity into its own national development strategy, generating an octroyé, non-hegemonic, type of international social capital, and integrating the existing order without corroborating the position of its founder
- Topic:
- International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China
330. Criminality in Africa’s Fishing Industry: A Threat to Human Security
- Author:
- André Standing
- Publication Date:
- 07-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Conflicts of interest within Africa’s fisheries sector enable unsustainable exploitation by foreign fishing firms and undercut the political will needed to build more robust surveillance and prosecutorial capacity.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy, International Security, and Food Security
- Political Geography:
- Africa
331. Assessing and Redefining Policies towards Africa in a New Global Scenario: Intersecting Perspectives between Brazil and Morocco
- Author:
- CEBRI
- Publication Date:
- 07-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
- Abstract:
- In July, representatives from the public and private sectors, think tanks, and academia, discussed, over a day, themes common to Brazil and Africa, explored ways to bring the two regions together, and inaugurated, in practice, a new phase of inter-Atlantic interaction.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Africa
332. Trumps National Security Strategy: A new brand of mercantilism
- Author:
- Salman Ahmed and Alexander Bick
- Publication Date:
- 08-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The sixteen national security strategies issued by presidents Ronald Reagan to Barack Obama reaffirmed U.S. leadership of a liberal international order, even as they acknowledged it enabled the rise of others and eroded U.S. economic dominance. President Donald Trump may decide that is no longer tenable. His forthcoming national security strategy will be closely scrutinized to understand what “America First” means for the U.S. role in the world and whether it represents a shift toward a narrower, neo-mercantile approach.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- America
333. Afghan Narcotrafficking: Illicit Financial Flows
- Author:
- Tony Bricktua
- Publication Date:
- 06-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- The EastWest Institute (EWI) today announced the launch of its latest report, Afghan Narcotrafficking: Illicit Financial Flows. The fifth in a six-part series, this report has been developed to assist policymakers and scholars to better comprehend the nature of illicit flows of goods and services from and into Afghanistan and their relation to drug smuggling. The report provides a comprehensive review and analysis of the opiate trafficking economy as well as recommendations and strategies to counter, control and reduce the supply-side of opiate narcotics around the world.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and Narcotics Trafficking
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan
334. “Alternative” Strategic Perceptions in U.S.-China Relations
- Author:
- David J. Firestein and Euhwa Tran
- Publication Date:
- 05-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- The EastWest Institute has released a new report on U.S.-China relations—"Alternative” Strategic Perceptions in U.S.-China Relations. The report lays out the differing strategic perceptions of the United States and China with respect to some of the most topical and challenging issues on the U.S.-China agenda today. These starkly differing perceptions inform and exacerbate actual policy and fuel mistrust and broad mutual strategic suspicion. By exposing the diverging perceptions of the two countries and bringing those perceptions into the fabric of bilateral discourse more explicitly and honestly, this report creates the basis for a more honest, substantive, constructive, fruitful and mutually beneficial dialogue.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- China and America
335. Envisioning the Future: Iranian and Saudi Perspectives on the Post-Oil Economy
- Author:
- Wael Abdul-Shafi
- Publication Date:
- 04-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- Falling oil and gas prices and shrinking demand across global energy markets pose enormous challenges for energy exporting countries like Iran and Saudi Arabia and lead to decreasing revenues from this sector. Despite differences in the structures of their respective national economies, both countries share common challenges in adapting to this new situation. High youth unemployment rates, an underrepresentation of women in the workforce, a public sector unable to absorb the high numbers of university graduates as well as environmental degradation and pollution, all constitute major problems for both countries and their economies. But, while solving many of these issues would ideally demand bilateral cooperation, a political climate of mutual mistrust and enmity currently inhibits such a process.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Saudi Arabia
336. Chinease Investment in Europe: A country level approach
- Author:
- Thomas Renard
- Publication Date:
- 12-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- Belgium may not be China’s prime destination for investment in Europe, but as in other neighboring countries these investments are increasing in quality and quantity. Chinese investments are mostly welcomed and encouraged by the government, its agencies and the business community. However, a recent failed deal with EANDIS, a public energy company, has also raised some concerns about the economic and security implications of (some) Chinese investments. Belgian intelligence services, notably, argue for a bit of caution vis-à-vis China. While these two visions could be complementary, they remain held by distinct communities that seem reluctant to acknowledge and listen to one another. As a result, the Belgian response to China’s economic offensive remains overwhelmingly reactive and uncoordinated.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China
337. Federalism and Foreign Direct Investment: How Political Affiliation Determines the Spatial Distribution of FDI – Evidence from India
- Author:
- Chanchal Kumar Sharma
- Publication Date:
- 10-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper links the foreign economic engagement of India’s states with the literature on federalism, thereby contributing to an understanding of the political economy of FDI in‐flows in a parliamentary federal system. More specifically, it studies subnational governments’ international engagements to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) and investigates whether the political affiliations of states’ chief ministers and parliamentarians determine the spatial distribution of FDI across the Indian states, correcting for the influence of per capita income, population density, urbanisation, infrastructure, policy regime, and human development. Although the central government plays no direct role in determining the state to which FDI goes, the centre–state relations in a federal structure play a role in creating perceptions about the relative political risk involved in different investment destinations. Employing multiple linear regressions to analyse time‐series (2000–2013) cross‐sectional (12 states) data using the panel procedure, the study finds that affiliated states attract relatively more FDI per capita in comparison to states ruled by opposition parties or coalition partners. However, some exceptions do result, primarily due to two phenomena: first, the presence of a strong state leadership and, second, the presence of a significant share of members of parliament belonging to the prime minister’s party in the non‐affiliated states. Further, states ruled by outside supporters have been most successful in attracting FDI inflows during the coalition period.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
338. Comparative Continuismo: Presidential Term Limit Contravention Across Developing Democracies
- Author:
- Kristin McKie
- Publication Date:
- 12-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- Since presidential term limits were (re)adopted into many constitutions during the third wave of democratization, 207 presidents across Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia have reached the end of their terms in office. Of these, 30% have attempted to contravene term limits whereas 70% have stepped down in compliance with tenure rules. Furthermore, of the presidents who have attempted to alter tenure restrictions, some have succeeded in fully abolishing term limits, others have only managed a one-term extension, while a minority have failed in their bids to secure any additional terms in office. What explains these divergent trajectories? On the basis of a series of statistical analyses, I argue that trends in electoral competition over time are the best predictor of the range of term limit contravention outcomes across the board, with the least competitive elections permitting full term limit abolition and the most competitive elections saving off attempts at altering executive tenure rules. Furthermore, results show that failed contravention attempts are true borderline cases, rather than instances gross miscalculations of success by the president and her party, in that they feature less competitive elections than non-attempt cases but more competitive elections than successful contravention cases. These findings suggest a linkage between political uncertainty and constitutional stability more generally.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
339. Key Risks Companies Face in Petroleum Investment and Operations
- Author:
- Bud Coote and Karl V. Hopkins
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- This report is a collaboration between Dentons and the Atlantic Council that provides analysis on the array of risks and uncertainties faced by international energy firms investing in and operating energy projects worldwide. It focuses on lessons learned from a variety of experiences and offers risk mitigation options.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
340. Downstream Oil Theft: Global Modalities, Trends, and Remedies
- Author:
- Ian M. Ralby
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- This report is the first comprehensive study of the theft of refined oil products around the globe. It provides insight into the modalities and trends in oil theft, the culprits responsible, the stakeholders affected by illicit activities, and recommendations that could change the dynamics. It is divided into three parts.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, International Political Economy, and Oil
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
341. The End Of Saudi Arabia's Addiction To Oil: Downstream Industrial Development
- Author:
- Jean-Francois Seznec
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Saudi Arabia’s leadership recently introduced an ambitious plan called Vision 2030 to move the country away from oil and toward a more diversified, modern economy. Fortunately, the economy is already much more diversified than is often reported, a fact obscured by the very high price of oil from 2000 to 2014. Since the mid-1970s, the Kingdom has developed chemical, metal, and fertilizer industries that are among the most advanced in the world. Most of these industries have been built on the natural advantages of Saudi Arabia: low-cost energy, large mineral resources, access to plentiful capital, and proximity to the huge markets of Asia.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy, Oil, Natural Resources, and Economic structure
- Political Geography:
- Saudi Arabia
342. India's Energy Needs And The Arab/Persian Gulf
- Author:
- Jean-Francois Seznec and Ramesh Pallakonda
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- India’s economy is increasing at the fastest rate in the world, now making it the globe’s third largest user of crude oil. While India is benefitting from the low oil prices seen since mid-2014, it has precious few oil and gas resources of its own and will remain highly dependent on imports. On the other hand India is now a large exporter of products like gasoline and diesel fuels because it has built a very large refining capacity, which ultimately renders India’s need for crude oil more pressing.
- Topic:
- Emerging Markets, International Political Economy, and Oil
- Political Geography:
- India
343. Green growth and energy security Fossil-endowed middle-income countries at a crossroads
- Author:
- Louise Schaik Van and Louise Van Schaik
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- This policy brief synthesises the findings of political economy analyses (PEA) in the energy sector in three fossil-endowed middle-income countries (MICs): Colombia, Indonesia and Kenya. It is based on a research project on political economy constraints and enablers influencing governments’ decisions on green growth options in the energy sector, where policy directions for a robust green growth trajectory are explored.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Environment, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Kenya, Indonesia, and Colombia
344. Reinvigorating U.S. Economic Strategy in the Asia Pacific
- Author:
- Charlene Barshefsky, Evan G. Greenberg, and Jon M. Huntsman Jr.
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The Asia Pacific is home to over half of humanity and many of the world’s largest and most dynamic economies. Over the coming decades, no region of the world will do more to shape U.S. economic fortunes. More than ever before, American jobs and growth are tied to the Asia Pacific, and these opportunities are likely to grow. But the region is undergoing profound change. Today, mutually beneficial relations with the Asia Pacific are challenged by slowing growth, a rise in security tensions, and threats to the U.S.-led order. The rise of China is altering the Asia-Pacific landscape in profound ways and playing a critical role in the region’s prosperity and perceived stability. These economic and security shifts offer opportuni- ties for the United States to strengthen cooperation with emerging economies and reinforce part- nerships with established allies. But new policies are needed in what has become a more volatile environment. These policies must be grounded in the enduring interests of the United States and informed by the realities of a changing Asia Pacific. And just as economics is at the heart of Asia’s rise, so must economics be at the heart of an effective strategy.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Globalization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- America and Asia-Pacific
345. How should we view China's rise?
- Author:
- CHRISTOPHER K JOHNSON, Amy Searight, and Victor D. Cha
- Publication Date:
- 12-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- It is evident that China’s rise will continue to dominate the geopolitics of Asia. How do the Chinese view this? Do its neighbors view it as inevitable, benign, or concerning? Where is there greatest convergence of Chinese views with that of its neighbors, and where is the greatest divergence?
- Topic:
- Globalization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China
346. Rethinking a Key U.S. Strategic Interest: Energy Stability, Energy Independence, and the United States as a Net Exporter
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Ever since the oil embargo following the October 1973 Arab-Israeli conflict, the United States has tended to measure its strategic interests in energy in terms of its dependence on direct imports of oil and gas. The new Annual Energy Outlook of the U.S. Energy Information Administration was issued on January 5, 2017. [i] Taken at face value, it reports that United States has reversed its past dependence on energy imports in spite of massive cut in world oil prices.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- America
347. U.S.-Sino Relations in the Arctic A Roadmap for Future Cooperation
- Author:
- Heather A. Conley
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The emergence of the Arctic as a region of political and economic opportunity adds a new dimension to U.S.-China relations. Despite divergent priorities in the region, there are opportunities for greater cooperation. Both countries experience the physical challenges of climate change while investing in scientific research to gain a better understanding of a transforming Arctic. They both also seek cooperation through the Arctic Council and the International Maritime Organization to promote governance in the region. For these reasons, among others, the United States and China should create a more purposeful dialogue on a range of Arctic issues. U.S.-Sino Relations in the Arctic: A Roadmap for Future Cooperation is the result of fruitful exchanges between American and Chinese experts who addressed a range of issues: the future of Arctic governance, geopolitical factors shaping the Arctic’s future, international maritime issues in the Central Arctic Ocean, future trends in sustainable Arctic development, and new bilateral scientific research initiatives in the Arctic. Through frank and candid exchanges, this report aims to lay the foundation of strong bilateral cooperation between the United States and China in the Arctic.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Geopolitics, and Climate Finance
- Political Geography:
- China, America, and Arctic
348. ASEAN as an FDI Attractor: How Do Multinationals Look at ASEAN?
- Author:
- Masahito Ambashi
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- This policy brief presents an overview of the ASEAN economy in terms of its economic relationship with multinationals, particularly Japanese companies, that have long invested in this region. ASEAN has been an attractor of foreign direct investment (FDI). Business interest in ASEAN has increased again recently due to the (i) relatively low wage of ASEAN compared to China, (ii) establishment of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), (iii) economic partnership network with a core of ASEAN countries, (iv) large-scale market covered by ASEAN, and (v) rise of CLMV countries (Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, and Viet Nam). In these trends, ASEAN has established a reciprocal economic relationship with other countries and regions. To develop its economy, ASEAN member states are expected to further advance the AEC at a high level. Hence, ASEAN must address challenges such as deepening further economic integration and narrowing development gaps in the region. Most importantly, ASEAN still needs to increase the attractiveness of its 'whole region' as an essential and integral part of global value chains to draw further FDI.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Global Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Japan and Southeast Asia
349. International Investment Agreements and Investor-State Disputes: A Review and Evaluation for Indonesia
- Author:
- Stephen L. Magiera
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- Foreign investors can lodge a complaint against a host country for alleged treaty violations under the Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) provisions of bilateral investment treaties (BITs). The complaints are arbitrated internationally outside the host country's domestic court, sometimes involve claims exceeding US$1 billion, and give rise to significant financial risk of international arbitration for host countries. Because of this, Indonesia has recently cancelled many of its BITs. But at the same time, Indonesia has agreed to ISDS under the ASEAN Comprehensive Investment Agreement (ACIA) and ASEAN's five agreements with Dialogue Partners. Furthermore, President Joko Widodo has expressed strong interest in joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which contains provisions for ISDS. ASEAN's Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) will also provide for ISDS. This note reviews the status of Indonesia's international obligations with respect to ISDS, evaluates some of the benefits and costs of ISDS, and reviews the extent to which Indonesia would be undertaking new ISDS obligations under TPP. The note concludes with a discussion of ways that Indonesia can reduce the risk of international arbitration through domestic regulatory reforms.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Southeast Asia
350. Institutional investors and home bias in Europe’s Capital Markets Union
- Author:
- Zsolt Darvas and Dirk Schoenmaker
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- Integrated capital markets facilitate risk sharing across countries. Lower home bias in financial investments is an indicator of risk sharing. We highlight that existing indicators of equity home bias in the literature suffer from incomplete coverage because they consider only listed equities. We also consider unlisted equites and show that equity home bias is much higher than previous studies perceived. We also analyse home bias in debt securities holdings, and euro-area bias. We conclude that European Union membership may foster financial integration and reduce information barriers, which sometimes limit cross-country diversification. We calculate home bias indicators for the aggregate of the euro area as if the euro area was a single country and report remarkable similarity between the euro area and the United States in terms of equity home bias, while there is a higher level of debt home bias in the United States than in the euro area as a whole. We develop a new pension fund foreign investment restrictions index to control for the impact of prudential regulations on the ability of institutional investors to diversify geographically across borders. Our panel regression estimates for 25 advanced and emerging countries in 2001-14 provide strong support for the hypothesis that the larger the assets managed by institutional investors (defined as pension funds, insurance companies and investment funds), the smaller the home bias and thereby the greater the scope for risk sharing.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Economic structure, and Europe Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe
351. Brexit and the European financial system
- Author:
- Uuriintuya Batsaikhan, Robert Kalcik, and Dirk Schoenmaker
- Publication Date:
- 02-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- London is an international financial centre, serving European and global clients. A hard Brexit would lead to a partial migration of financial firms from London to the EU27 (EU minus UK) to ensure they can continue to serve their EU27 clients. Four major cities will host most of the new EU27 wholesale markets: Frankfurt, Paris, Dublin and Amsterdam. These cities have far fewer people employed in finance than London. Moreover, they host the European headquarters of fewer large companies. The partial migra- tion of financial firms will thus have a major impact on these cities and their infrastructures. Banks are the key players in wholesale markets. United States and Swiss investment banks, together with one large German and three large French banks, will make up the core of the new EU27 wholesale markets. Some Dutch, Italian and Spanish banks are in the second tier. The forex, securities and derivatives trading markets are now in London. We map the current, limited market share of the four major cities that might host the EU27 client business. The expected migration of financial trading will lead to a large increase in trading capacity (eg bank trading floors). Clearing is the backbone of modern financial markets. A comparative overview of clearing facilities in the EU27 shows that Germany and France have some clearing capacity, but this will need to be expanded. The ownership of clearing is often intertwined with stock exchanges. Were the planned LSE-Deutsche Börse merger to go ahead, LSE would sell the Paris subsidiary of its clearinghouse. In terms of legal systems, there is an expectation that trading activities will be able to continue under English contract law, also in the EU27. A particular challenge is to develop FinTech (financial technology) in the EU27, as this innovative part of the market is currently based in London. We estimate that some 30,000 jobs might move from London to the EU27. This will put pressure on the facilities (infrastructure, offices, residential housing) in the recipient cities. The more the European Union market for financial services is integrated, the less need there will be for financial firms to move to one location, reducing the pressure for all facilities to be in one city (see Sapir et al, 2017, which is a companion piece to this paper).
- Topic:
- International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Brexit
- Political Geography:
- Britain and Europe
352. Fundamental uncertainty and unconventional monetary policy: an info-gap approach
- Author:
- Yakov Ben-Haim, Maria Demertzis, and Jan Willem Van Den End
- Publication Date:
- 02-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- This paper applies the info-gap approach to the unconventional monetary policy of the Eurosystem and so takes into account the fundamental uncertainty on inflation shocks and the transmission mechanism. The outcomes show that a more demanding monetary strategy, in terms of lower tolerance for output and inflation gaps, entails less robustness against uncertainty, particularly if financial variables are taken into account. Augmenting the Taylor rule with a financial variable leads to a smaller loss of robustness than taking into account the effect of financial imbalances on the economy. However, in some situations, the augmented model is more robust than the baseline model. A conclusion from our framework is that including financial imbalances in the monetary policy objective does not necessarily increase policy robustness, and may even decrease it
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Europe
353. Europe in a new world order
- Author:
- Maria Demertzis, André Sapir, and Guntram Wolff
- Publication Date:
- 02-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- The United States is the European Union’s most important trade and bilateral investment partner, which has, until now, supported a multilateral trade system and European integration and has provided a security guarantee to the countries of the EU. But like other advanced economies, the US’s relative weight in the global economy has declined. The new US administration seems intent on replacing multilateralism with bilateral deals. In trade, it aims to secure new trade deals in order to reduce bilateral trade deficits and to protect, in particular, the US manufacturing sector. In climate policy, the US commitment to the Paris Agreement is being questioned. In defence, the security umbrella appears less certain than previously. The overall promise behind this change of direction is to put ‘America first’ and deliver better results for US citizens.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, Multilateral Relations, and Political stability
- Political Geography:
- Europe and United States of America
354. Making the best of Brexit for the EU27 financial system
- Author:
- Andre Sapir, Dirk Schoenmaker, and Nicolas Veron
- Publication Date:
- 02-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- The United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union creates an opportunity for the remaining EU27 to accelerate the development of its financial markets and to increase its resilience against shocks. Equally, Brexit involves risks for market integrity and stability, because the EU including the UK has been crucially dependent on the Bank of England and the UK Financial Conduct Authority for oversight of its wholesale markets. Without the UK, the EU27 must swiftly upgrade its capacity to ensure market integrity and financial stability. Furthermore, losing even partial access to the efficient London financial centre could entail a loss of efficiency for the EU27 economy, especially if financial developments inside the EU27 remain limited and uneven.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Political stability, and Brexit
- Political Geography:
- Britain and Europe
355. Why is it so hard to reach the EU’s ‘poverty’ target?
- Author:
- Zsolt Darvus
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- The ‘poverty’ target set by the European Commission aims to lift “over 20 million people out of poverty” between 2008 and 2020 in the EU27. Progress to date against this target has been disappointing. Why is it so hard to reach the Europe 2020 ‘poverty’ target? What does the poverty indicator actually measure?
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- Europe
356. Charting a Course for Trade and Economic Integration in the Asia-Pacific
- Author:
- Asia Society Policy Institute
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Asia Society
- Abstract:
- OVER THE PAST YEAR, THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL TRADE LANDSCAPE HAS BEEN CHALLENGED AS NEVER BEFORE. A growing number of people around the world are questioning the value of trade agreements, holding them accountable for slow wage growth, rising inequalities, and job losses. Exemplified by Brexit and the U.S. presidential election, a wave of anti-globalization has washed over the world. Further, global trade is slowing, and existing trade agreements have not kept pace with the changing nature of trade itself, owing to the increasingly important role of digital and services trades. But trade has been one of the strongest drivers behind global growth and stability, particularly in Asia. In the past quarter century, the number of trade agreements in the region has increased dramati- cally. At the same time, Asian countries experienced average annual growth rates nearly 3 percent higher after liberalizing their markets.1 The region’s openness has been a critical ingredient in spurring growth, creating jobs, and lifting millions out of poverty. Trade has also helped nations develop stronger ties, giving them a greater stake in one another’s economic success and reducing the likelihood of conflict. What the French philosopher Montesquieu wrote during the eighteenth century remains as relevant in the twenty-first: “Peace is a natural effect of trade.” 2
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
357. Decline, Not Collapse: The Bleak Prospects for Russia’s Economy
- Author:
- Andre Movchan
- Publication Date:
- 02-2017
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Russia faces bleak economic prospects for the next few years. It may be a case of managed decline in which the government appeases social and political demands by tapping the big reserves it accumulated during the boom years with oil and gas exports. But there is also a smaller possibility of a more serious economic breakdown or collapse. A proper analysis requires consideration of a number of key and often overlooked features of Russia’s post-Soviet economy.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, and Economic structure
- Political Geography:
- Russia
358. The cost of Azerbaijan’s leaving the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI)
- Author:
- Ahmad Alili and Victoria Bittner
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- Azerbaijan’s membership in the EITI is considered a key asset to the country’s oil and natural gas economy. As a result of leaving the EITI, Azerbaijan might be regarded as ineligible for future loans by the World Bank and other international institutions for projects, such as the Southern Gas Corridor Project (TAP&TANAP). It is quite an important decision for the country, which was a founding member of the initiative, to leave it. It is going to have considerable effects on the economy and civil society in Azerbaijan. This article aims to shed light on the possible domestic developments of Azerbaijan’s suspension of the EITI.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Azerbaijan
359. Assessment on Real Effective Exchange Rate in Azerbaijan: 2017 Outlook
- Author:
- Rashad Hasanov
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- The implementation of fixed exchange rate regime for 20 years (1994-2014) resulted in a formation of an insecure currency position for all interest groups, including the government and business. Although the pressures on manat have commenced to increase since the second half of 2014, the Central Bank and the government failed in comprehending the process. That is why, promising statements have been made to the general public. But the following events proved the underlying problem more severe and the implemented monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies ineffective in the long-term. Business, citizens, as well as state-owned enterprises faced serious financial losses. The country experienced serious threats with regard to its financial sustainability.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy, Monetary Policy, and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Azerbaijan
360. Assault on the Liberal Trading Order
- Author:
- Vinod K Aggarwal
- Publication Date:
- 11-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Berkeley APEC Study Center
- Abstract:
- Given the hotly contested U.S. presidential election and the surprising victory of Donald Trump, followed by the flurry of executive actions, it is easy to lose sight of the broader challenges to the U.S.-promoted post-Second World War economic order. My analysis proceeds in four parts. First, I consider how we have moved away from multilateral to bilateral trade negotiations. Second, I consider how the consensus for a liberal trade order has frayed, focusing on systemic changes, U.S. domestic political economic conflicts, and a rethinking of the ideological consensus around the benefits of free trade. Third, I highlight factors that drove the demise of TPP. I conclude by looking at the future of trade accords in the Asia-Pacific.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
361. Overselling the Trans pacific Partnership: The Trade Security Nexus
- Author:
- Vinod K Aggarwal
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Berkeley APEC Study Center
- Abstract:
- For decades, first under the auspices of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and then its successor organization the World Trade Organization (WTO), countries successfully negotiated the reduction of both tariffs and nontariff barriers every few years. But in December 2015, after 14 years of fruitless negotiations, WTO members terminated the Doha Round.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
362. Intra-Regional Foreign Direct Investment In SADC: South Africa and Mauritius Outward Foreign Direct Investment
- Author:
- Onelie B. Nkuna
- Publication Date:
- 06-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
- Abstract:
- This paper looks at intra-SADC (Southern African Development Community) Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and focuses on Mauritius and South Africa’s outward FDI. Data from 1999 to 2010 are collated and qualitative analyses conducted. The study reveals that Mauritius’ outward FDI was mainly in the service sector and largely went to Madagascar, Seychelles and Mozambique, which were also the country’s main trading partners, except for Botswana. Meanwhile, South African investments were mainly in Mauritius, Tanzania and Mozambique, while the country’s main trading partners were Botswana, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Swaziland and Angola. The study also found the following to be potential drivers of Mauritian and South African outward investments, and hence intra-SADC FDI flows: geographical proximity, market access, liberalized markets, stable macroeconomic and political environment, natural resource availability, and policy and institutional framework. Graphical analyses and simple correlations reveal that trade and FDI are positively correlated for Mauritius and South Africa’s outward investment, suggestive of a complementarity relationship.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Foreign Direct Investment, and Regional Integration
- Political Geography:
- Africa, South Africa, and Mauritius
363. States versus Corporations: Rethinking the Power of Business in International Politics
- Author:
- Milan Babic, Jan Fichtner, and Eelke M. Heemskerk
- Publication Date:
- 12-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The International Spectator
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Over 25 years ago, Susan Strange urged IR scholars to include multinational corporations in their analysis. Within IR and IPE discussions, this was either mostly ignored or reflected in an empirically and methodologically unsatisfactory way. We reiterate Strange’s call by sketching a fine-grained theoretical and empirical approach that includes both states and corporations as juxtaposed actors that interact in transnational networks inherent to the contemporary international political economy. This realistic, juxtaposed, actor- and relations-centred perspective on state and corporate power in the global system is empirically illustrated by the example of the transnationalisation of state ownership.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Political Economy, State, and Multinational Corporations
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
364. REGIME EFFECTIVENESS AND DEMOCRACY PROTECTION: THE RESPONSES OF MERCOSUR TO THE IMPEACHMENT PROCESSES IN PARAGUAY AND BRAZIL
- Author:
- Alexandre San Martim Portes
- Publication Date:
- 04-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
- Institution:
- Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
- Abstract:
- Democratization and regional integration are phenomena relatively new in South America. After decades of authoritarian regimes, new democratic orders and globalization brought the necessity of looking for partnership in the neighborhood. The Common Market of the South, or in the Spanish acronym Mercosur, was created in 1991, as an attempt to bring the countries in the region not only economically but also politically closer. Although initially a project lead by Brazil and Argentina, Mercosur has today threemore members: Paraguay, Uruguay, and Venezuela. Bolivia is in the process of integration and Chile, Peru, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana and Surinam are associate members (MERCOSUR, 2017).
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, and Common Market
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, Argentina, South America, Uruguay, Latin America, Venezuela, and Paraguay
365. Volume 67 Issue 1
- Author:
- Haluk Alkan
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Istanbul Journal of Economics
- Institution:
- Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
- Abstract:
- Istanbul Journal of Economics-İstanbul İktisat Dergisi is an open access, peer-reviewed, scholarly journal published two times a year in June and December. It has been an official publication of Istanbul University Faculty of Economics since 1939. The manuscripts submitted for publication in the journal must be scientific and original work in Turkish or English. Being one of the earliest peer-reviewed academic journals in Turkey in the area of economics, Istanbul Journal of Economics-İstanbul İktisat Dergisi aims to provide a forum for exploring issues in basicly economics and publish both disciplinary and multidisciplinary articles. Economics is the main scope of the journal. However, multidisciplinary and comparative approaches are encouraged as well and articles from various social science areas such as sociology of economics, history, social policy, international relations, financial studies are welcomed in this regard. The target group of the journal consists of academicians, researchers, professionals, students, related professional and academic bodies and institutions.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, Political Science, and Tax Systems
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Global Focus
366. Volume 67 Issue 2
- Author:
- Haluk Alkan
- Publication Date:
- 06-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Istanbul Journal of Economics
- Institution:
- Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
- Abstract:
- Istanbul Journal of Economics-İstanbul İktisat Dergisi is an open access, peer-reviewed, scholarly journal published two times a year in June and December. It has been an official publication of Istanbul University Faculty of Economics since 1939. The manuscripts submitted for publication in the journal must be scientific and original work in Turkish or English. Being one of the earliest peer-reviewed academic journals in Turkey in the area of economics, Istanbul Journal of Economics-İstanbul İktisat Dergisi aims to provide a forum for exploring issues in basicly economics and publish both disciplinary and multidisciplinary articles. Economics is the main scope of the journal. However, multidisciplinary and comparative approaches are encouraged as well and articles from various social science areas such as sociology of economics, history, social policy, international relations, financial studies are welcomed in this regard. The target group of the journal consists of academicians, researchers, professionals, students, related professional and academic bodies and institutions.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, Markets, Political Science, and Capital
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Global Focus
367. Explaining Variation in Public Debt: A Quantitative Analysis of the Effects of Governance
- Author:
- Andreas Eisl
- Publication Date:
- 06-2017
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the main political influence factors accounting for the variation in public debt accumulation on a global scale. This allows for a reassessment of the recent focus on a regime type theory of public debt and for a test of an alternative governance theory. I argue that political stability, the rule of law, the control of corruption, government effectiveness, and regulatory quality promote lower public debt accumulation by reducing the incentives for governments to “borrow from the future,” by increasing state capacity to collect taxes and effectively use public funds, and by providing more security and equity to private investment, inducing higher economic growth and tax revenues. Both theories are tested against a number of controls stemming from theories of public choice, theories of governmental distributional conflict, as well as from politico-institutional and macroeconomic explanations of public debt accumulation. Applying different specifications of quantitative models, the two governance indicators political stability and regulatory quality show consistent effects on public debt accumulation, partly confirming the proposed governance theory. Furthermore, the paper can reproduce a public debt-reducing effect of more democratic regime types across a number of model specifications – though without a high degree of robustness.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Economics, International Political Economy, Regulation, Rule of Law, Macroeconomics, and Public Debt
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
368. Blue Economy Vision 2025: Harnessing Business Potential for India Inc and International Partners
- Author:
- FICCI Task Force
- Publication Date:
- 05-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations
- Abstract:
- Blue Economy Vision 2025: Harnessing Business Potential for India Inc and International Partners is a pioneering effort by FICCI to sensitise India Inc about the growing global and regional emphasis on sustainability of harnessing the ocean resources. It makes a convincing argument that the oceans, with a current estimated asset value of US$ 24 trillion and an annual value addition of US$ 2.5 trillion, would continue to offer significant economic benefits both in the traditional areas of fisheries, transport, tourism and hydrocarbons as well as in the new fields of deep-sea mining, renewable energy, ocean biotechnology and many more, only if we integrate sustainable practices with our business models.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
369. The political economy of the transformation of Islamic finance in Turkey
- Author:
- SETA
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- When Islamic finance is mentioned around the world, the first thing that comes to mind is Islamic banks. The sphere of Islamic finance has expanded in the last decade with developments particularly in capital markets and the insurance sector. Nonetheless, the market share of Islamic finance in the world’s financial market accounts for approximately 1 percent. Still, many segments are interested in Islamic finance because of its high growth figures, resilience against crises, and the fact that it offers a system that prioritizes ethical values in contrast to conventional finance. Islamic banks in Turkey date back to the establishment of the Adapazarı Islamic Trade Bank (Adapazarı İslam Ticaret Bankası) in Sakarya (Adapazarı) in 1913. However, examples of globally accepted Islamic banking models in Turkey appeared with the emergence of Special Finance Houses (SFHs) following the passage of relevant legal regulations in 1984
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Markets
370. Making the ‘Special Relationship’ Great Again?
- Author:
- Tim Oliver and Micheal Williams
- Publication Date:
- 09-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- Donald Trump’s election poses uncomfortable questions for Britain about the future of the UK-US ‘Special Relationship’.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
371. Currency market in Azerbaijan: Challenging environment for the national currency
- Author:
- Rashad Hasanov
- Publication Date:
- 09-2016
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- In August, the exchange rate of national currency of Azerbaijan-“Manat” beat all historical records. That is to say, the exchange rate was 1 USD= 1.61 Manat in previous month . It should be noted that, the exchange rate hit 1 USD= 1.6 Manat in March, 2016. Since the second half of 2014, due to the fall of oil prices in the world markets there is a visible pressure on the national currency ‘Manat’. Overall, the Azerbaijani “Manat” lost 49.6% of its value in 2015 and in addition, a depreciation of more than 3% in the first 8 months of 2016, the losses could reach 52.2%. Although the occurring rapid dollarization and the observed stagnation in the business environment especially in imports in the first months of 2015 and 2016 resulted in short-term reduction in foreign exchange demand in the March-May period of this year and strengthening the exchange rate of USD/Manat at the level of 1.49, the process of depreciation proceeded again afterwards.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Azerbaijan
372. China’s investment in influence: the future of 16+1 cooperation
- Author:
- Angela Stanzel, Agatha Kratz, Justyna Szczudlik, and Dragan Pavlićević
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- China faced hard times in 2016 – at least when it comes to promoting its investment in Europe. The European Union is one of its most important economic and trading partners and the final destination of China’s flagship initiative, the New Silk Road. However, some EU member states have recently become increasingly critical of China’s push for more investment in Europe. Beijing has invested significant effort in building a new entry point into Europe through the central and eastern European (CEE) countries – in particular, through the 16+1 framework. As reflected in Agatha Kratz’s article in this edition of China Analysis, the CEE region is attractive to China thanks to its strategic geographical position for the New Silk Road project, its high-skilled yet cheap labour, and its open trade and investment environment.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- China
373. Big is beautiful? State-owned enterprise mergers under Xi Jinping
- Author:
- Wendy Leutert and François Godement
- Publication Date:
- 11-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- It is merger season again in China, as evidenced by the sources drawn on in this special issue of China Analysis. But who really knows why? Our contributor Wendy Leutert points out how the government’s goals have shifted within the last year alone. In September 2015, new guidelines emphasising the importance of separating state suppliers of public goods from more commercial state firms suggested a possible shift towards the latter having to play by the rules of the market. Today, the more traditional goal of mopping up excess supply and inefficient companies seems to have taken over.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China
374. China and Russia: Gaming the West
- Author:
- Mathieu Duchâtel and François Godement
- Publication Date:
- 11-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- In September 2016, Russia held joint naval manoeuvres in the South China Sea with China, bringing some of its best ships to the party. Two weeks later, China shied away from joining Russia in a veto of yet another Western resolution on Syria at the UN. The discrepancy sums up the extent and the limits of the strategic convergence between both countries. The “axis of convenience” between China and Russia has, without question, grown larger. And the positive dynamics pushing cooperation forward are largely economic. But there is also a negative dynamic, coming from the West. Both countries have a perception of regime insecurity that emerges from the international promotion of democracy, and the attractiveness of corruption-free and comparably safe Western societies for individuals, be they Chinese or Russian.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Russia and China
375. Shared Border, Shared Future: A Blueprint to Regulate US-Mexico Labor Mobility
- Author:
- Carlos Gutierrez, Ernesto Zedillo, and Michael Clemens
- Publication Date:
- 09-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Mexico and the United States have lacked a bilateral agreement to regulate cross-border labor mobility since 1965. Since that time, unlawful migration from Mexico to the US has exploded. Almost half of the 11.7 million Mexican-born individuals living in the U.S. do not have legal authorization. This vast black market in labor has harmed both countries. These two neighboring countries, with an indisputably shared destiny, can come together to work out a better way. The time has come for a lasting, innovative, and cooperative solution. To address this challenge, the Center for Global Development assembled a group of leaders from both countries and with diverse political affiliations—from backgrounds in national security, labor unions, law, economics, business, and diplomacy—to recommend how to move forward. The result is a new blueprint for a bilateral agreement that is designed to end unlawful migration, promote the interests of U.S. and Mexican workers, and uphold the rule of law.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy, International Affairs, Labor Issues, and Border Control
- Political Geography:
- America and Mexico
376. Financial Regulations for Improving Financial Inclusion
- Author:
- Stijn Claessens and Liliana Rojas-Suarez
- Publication Date:
- 03-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- As recently as 2011, only 42 percent of adult Kenyans had a financial account of any kind; by 2014, according to the Global Findex, database that number had risen to 75 percent. [1] In subSaharan Africa, the share of adults with financial accounts rose by nearly half over the same period. Many other developing countries have also recorded gains in access to basic financial services. Much of this progress is being facilitated by the digital revolution of recent decades, which has led to the emergence of new financial services and new delivery channels. Whereas payment services often are the entry point into using formal financial services, they are not the only lowcost and widely accessible financial services being delivered in recent years. Driven by advances in new digital payment services, smallscale credit and new modes for delivering insurance services are being offered in several developing countries. Digital (payment) records are being used to make decisions about provision of credit to small businesses or individuals who do not have traditional collateral or credit history to secure loans. Additionally, affordable mobile systems have led to the provision of new and innovative financial services that would not be economically sustainable under the traditional brickandmortar model such as mobilebased crop microinsurance in subSaharan Africa and payasyougo energy delivery models for offgrid customers in India, Peru, and Tanzania. [2] Increased access to basic financial services, especially payments services, by larger segments of the population reflects the growing use of digital technologies in developing countries. Simultaneously, the adoption of proper regulation based on countryspecific opportunities, needs and conditions has been critical.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Markets
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
377. Assessing EU development cooperation: from infancy to maturity?
- Author:
- Eva Krizkova
- Publication Date:
- 10-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Europeum Institute for European Policy
- Abstract:
- The development cooperation policy of the EU is an important political and economic tool. Nevertheless, its importance might be underestimated in today’s public debate. In 2000 and 2015 the international community adopted development goals (the so-called Millennium Development Goals and Sustainable Development Goals), in which poverty eradication and global inclusive sustainable prosperity were set as priorities. In this framework, EU development cooperation is one of the most important tools in the accomplishment of these goals.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy, Millennium Development Goals, and International Development
- Political Geography:
- European Union
378. Does Compliance Pay? Social Standards and Firm-level Trade
- Author:
- Greg Distelhorst and Richard M. Locke
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
- Abstract:
- What is the relationship between trade and social institutions in the developing world? The research literature is conflicted: importing firms may demand that trading partners observe higher labor and environmental standards, or they may penalize higher standards that raise costs. This study uses new data on retailers and manufacturers to analyze how firm-level trade responds to information about social standards. Contrary to the "race to the bottom" hypothesis, it finds that retail importers reward exporters for complying with social standards. In difference-in-differences estimates from over two thousand manufacturing establishments in 36 countries, achieving compliance is associated with a 4% [1%, 7%] average increase in annual purchasing. The effect is driven largely by the apparel industry — a longterm target of anti-sweatshop social movements — suggesting that activist campaigns can shape patterns of global trade.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
379. Calling a Spade a Spade: Canada's Use of Sanctions
- Author:
- Andrea Charron
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
- Abstract:
- Canada’s use of sanctions is little studied which means the full scope and effect of this tool are not appreciated. Until 2006, Canada applied sanctions in support of the United Nations almost exclusively. Since then, Canada has also applied discretionary sanctions in support of allies such as the European Union and United States’ measures in addition to those required by the UN Security Council. Lacking extraterritorial reach and with this new tendency to layer sanctions (applying UN and additional measures) requires the navigation of multiple pieces of Canadian legislation. Banks and private companies, which are largely responsible for giving effect to Canada’s sanctions, must navigate this legislation. This has ensnared a few Canadians in the process with little evidence that Canada’s application of sanctions is compelling its targets (people, companies, and states) to change their behaviour. Canada’s application of sanctions is a signal of its desire to support multilateral, collective security efforts – nothing more or less.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Canada
380. A Primer to the North American Leaders’ Summit (NALS)
- Author:
- Colin Robertson
- Publication Date:
- 06-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
- Abstract:
- On Wednesday, June 29th, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will host US President Barack Obama and Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto for the tenth North American Leaders’ Summit (NALS). All three leaders want this meeting to succeed. For President Obama, it will advance his climate agenda continentally and help to cement his legacy in managing good neighbourhood relations. Climate also rates high in President Peña Nieto’s agenda, along with improving access for Mexican goods and mobility for Mexicans within North America. In terms of Canada-Mexico relations, President Peña Nieto expects Prime Minister Trudeau to announce the lifting of the obnoxious Canadian visa requirement. For Prime Minister Trudeau, making his debut as host of a multilateral summit, it is another demonstration that ‘Canada is back’. He must reset the Mexican relationship by announcing the long-promised lifting of the visa. He will get to know Enrique Peña Nieto better (they met briefly at November’s G20 summit and they were friendly ‘rivals’ for ‘APEC ‘hottie’ at the subsequent Manila summit). The summit represents another opportunity for ‘face-time’ with Barack Obama with whom he has quickly established a strong personal friendship and to reciprocate the hospitality of the White House meetings and state dinner in March. The North American summit comes within a week of the Brexit referendum. It will offer an opportunity for the three leaders to demonstrate a different kind of continental integration – less centralized, less bureaucratic – but still successful in mutually advancing economic prosperity that reinforces the sovereignty of each member.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Political Economy, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- America and Canada
381. Canada and Saudi Arabia: A deeply flawed but necessary partnership
- Author:
- Thomas Juneau
- Publication Date:
- 07-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
- Abstract:
- The proposed $15 billion sale of light armoured vehicles to Saudi Arabia has brought significant attention – mostly negative – to Canada’s partnership with the Arabian Peninsula kingdom. Much of this criticism is valid: the human rights situation in Saudi Arabia is abysmal, and Canada and its allies incur costs by being associated with Riyadh’s poor foreign policy choices. But to stop the analysis here and call for the cancelling of the deal fails to take into account the strategic rationale underlying the relationship with Saudi Arabia. Despite its many flaws, the partnership between Saudi Arabia and West, and therefore Canada, remains necessary; rejecting it and turning Saudi Arabia into a rival would make things worse. An important implication is that the best way forward with regards to the LAV deal is to collectively hold our nose, uphold the agreement, and move on.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Canada and Saudi Arabia
382. Choices for the Future: The Trans-Pacific Partnership and Canada
- Author:
- John M Weekes
- Publication Date:
- 08-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
- Abstract:
- This paper looks at the significance of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) for Canada. It situates the Agreement in the changing environment within which global commerce is conducted. It considers the prospects for TPP ratification, generally, in the US and Canada. It looks at the nature of the TPP as an agreement. It discusses the impacts on Canada in particular in the growing Asia Pacific region. Finally, it suggests options should TPP not be ratified in a timely fashion by the United States.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Canada
383. Infrastructure, Attitude and Weather: Today's Threats to Supply Chain Security
- Author:
- Stephen Blank
- Publication Date:
- 06-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
- Abstract:
- The global economy can be viewed today as a myriad of border-crossing supply chain networks of production, supply, distribution and marketing systems. Given the enormous value embodied in these systems, and an environment increasingly characterized by uncertainty and vulnerability, it is not surprising that concern about supply chain security has intensified. Concern takes many forms. For example, how supply chains might be used as vehicles for criminal activity (smuggling, trafficking of narcotics and importing counterfeit goods) or acts of terrorism (radio-active materials, bombs, even nukes in containers). Technology-based threats to supply chains, such as cybercrimes, data breaches and IT failures, now appear more frequently in the literature on supply chain security. These threats could result in substantial disruption to supply chains and damage to companies and their customers. But larger storms are brewing, whose menace to supply chain security is greater still – and where actions to protect supply chains move more slowly. These include the continued deterioration of transportation infrastructure, a new posture on trade which views supply chains as threats to jobs and wages, and the impact of climate change. These threats do not lie off in the distant future; they are threats of today and tomorrow.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy, International Security, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
384. Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies: Feast or Famine Forever?
- Author:
- Malcolm D. Knight
- Publication Date:
- 03-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- The past 20 years have witnessed a profound change in the types of non-resident investors who provide funding to emerging market economies (EMEs) and the nancial instruments through which emerging market (EM) corporations borrow from abroad. Until the beginning of the new millennium, private capital ows to EMEs were mainly intermediated by large global banks, and EMEs were subjected to massive volatility in their external payments balances, exchange rates and domestic nancial systems. But since the early 2000s the role of bank- intermediated credit has declined, as the base of investors willing to take on exposure to EM corporate debt has become much larger and more diverse. These structural changes have encouraged a vast growth in ows of funds, not only from the mature economies to EMEs as a group, but also among EMEs themselves.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
385. The European Union and Investor-State Dispute Settlement: From Investor-State Arbitration to a Permanent Investment Court
- Author:
- August Reinisch
- Publication Date:
- 03-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- Since the transfer of foreign direct investment powers from the European Union member states to the European Union itself in the 2009 Treaty of Lisbon, the European Commission, the main external trade actor for the European Union, has started to negotiate international investment agreements as well as investment chapters in enlarged free trade agreements (FTAs). Both contain substantive protection standards and enforcement mechanisms in case of disputes, usually both state–state and investor–state arbitration (ISA). With regard to the latter, it was unclear whether the European Commission, the European Union’s experienced World Trade Organization (WTO) litigator, would continue to use the interstate template of trade disputes or venture into ISA. After an initial orientation period, the European Commission rmly endorsed ISA, as demonstrated by the negotiations with Canada on the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) and with the United States on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). Meanwhile, however, public opposition to the TTIP, and to ISA in particular, has formed in unexpected dimensions. It even led the European Commission to partially interrupt its trade negotiations with the United States in order to conduct a public consultation on the investment aspects of the TTIP. Ever since, ISA has remained one of the most controversial parts of the planned trade agreements. Most recently, the European Commission tabled a TTIP proposal to set up a permanent investment court that would replace the system of ad hoc ISA. This paper analyzes in detail the development of the European Union’s position toward the use of ISA as a means for settling investor-state disputes.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- European Union
386. Risks of a Selective Approach to Investor-State Arbitration
- Author:
- Hugo Perezcano
- Publication Date:
- 04-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- Investor-state arbitration (ISA) has been a controversial topic and a source of criticism and debate for quite some time. Yet, it continues to be a standard feature of modern international investment agreements (IIAs). While opposition to ISA has traditionally come from certain sectors of civil society, there appears to be a growing discomfort now among states as well. Some critics suggest that ISA is unnecessary and should be left out of IIAs altogether. Others argue that it may be needed in IIAs between developed nations that are mostly capital exporters, on the one hand, and developing countries that require foreign capital to promote development, on the other, but that it is unwarranted in IIAs that developed countries enter into among themselves. They reason that developed countries have robust legal frameworks and institutions, including responsive judiciaries, that adequately protect private investment and, therefore, ISA can safely be omitted from such IIAs without any detriment to foreign investors or their investments. This paper addresses some of the aws in the arguments that have been advanced in support of this position, as well as some of its implications, especially the reaction that might be expected from developing countries if developed countries were to back away from ISA in their dealings with other developed nations but continue to demand its inclusion in their agreements with developing countries.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
387. Is There a Future for International Monetary Cooperation?
- Author:
- James M. Boughton
- Publication Date:
- 04-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- Economic con ict between nation-states has been a major concern throughout the past century and will continue to threaten progress for the foreseeable future. The language evolves, but the issues persist. The “beggar-thy-neighbour” policies and “competitive devaluations” that aggravated the Great Depression of the 1930s have become the “currency wars” of the twenty- rst century. De ning the problem, however, is easy compared with the task of solving it. A central recurring question is whether policy makers can — and should — cooperate and try to coordinate their policies in an effort to alleviate con icts and improve outcomes.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, International Political Economy, and International Development
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
388. Definitional Issues in the Sustainability Analysis Framework: A Proposal
- Author:
- Martin Guzman
- Publication Date:
- 05-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- It is e cient that insolvent debtors restructure their liabilities. A timely and e cient process of debt restructuring is in the best interest of the aggregate. Conversely, delaying the restoration of debt sustainability may aggravate the economic situation of the debtor. is is ine cient: the prolongation of a recession decreases the amount of resources to be shared by the debtor and its creditors. e costs can be enormous for societies, as deep depressions are usually accompanied by high and persistent unemployment (generally unevenly distributed among the di erent cohorts and segments of the labour force), inequality and poverty.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and Sustainable Development Goals
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
389. China and the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement
- Author:
- John Whalley and Li Chunding
- Publication Date:
- 05-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Agreement has now been concluded, but it still faces the challenge of ratification in each of the 12 member countries that are partners to the agreement. China is the world’s second- largest economy, but is not part of the TPP Agreement, which has provoked a great deal of debate in China on the best strategy for China to deal with the TPP. This paper analyzes China’s possible trade strategy, raising three issues for consideration, given the TPP Agreement. First, security of market access should be China’s main concern in any free trade agreement (FTA) negotiation, but the TPP does not include content that is particularly relevant to this issue. Second, the nal TPP Agreement is somewhat less than the high-level, ambitious agreement that has been proclaimed. Third, the rati cation process in all 12 member countries will be slow and may possibly not even happen. This paper sets out four strategies for China: to promote the development of China’s remaining regional and bilateral FTAs; to negotiate a bilateral FTA with the United States; to promote deep domestic reform and opening up by enlarging the coverage of the TPP; and, nally, to negotiate its entry in the TPP as soon as possible, so that the terms of entering the agreement do not degenerate for China.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China
390. The New Investment Tribunal under Chapter 8 of CETA
- Author:
- Marc Lalonde
- Publication Date:
- 05-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- I have rarely seen, in my long life, a change as unjustified as the one represented by the new investment tribunal structure now found in the agreed text of the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) between Canada and the European Union. First of all, it is a poor solution based on a faulty premise. It is the result of an ill-informed but obviously effective campaign by mainly European lobbies[1] and some groups in the European Parliament, which have argued, without proper quantitative or qualitative support, that the present system is biased in favour of foreign investors. If this were the case, how can they explain that, according to the latest statistics from the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID), only 46 percent of all ICSID awards upheld (in part or in full) investors’ claims, while 53 percent of the claims were dismissed for lack of jurisdiction or on the merits, and another one percent were rejected as manifestly without legal merit.[2] Similarly, in its 2014 World Investment Report, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) came to the conclusion that, out of 274 concluded investment treaty cases in 2013, 43 percent were decided in favour of the state, 31 percent in favour of the investor and 26 percent were settled.[3]
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
391. Embracing Islamic Finance in Greece. A preliminary analysis
- Author:
- Evangelos Venetis
- Publication Date:
- 04-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Nowadays Islamic finance is gradually becoming an important part of the international financial system. During the ongoing financial crisis, the role of Islamic finance for the stabilization of the international financial system appears to be strong and promising due to its ethical principles and religious foundation. This analysis focuses both on the quantitative and qualitative examples of the economic upheaval in the Eurozone and Greece and explores the prospects of introducing and developing possible prospects of Islamic finance in the Greek economy.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Greece
392. Trade in Intermediate Goods: Implications for Productivity and Welfare in Korea
- Author:
- Kim Young Gui and Hak K. Pyo
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- There have been voluminous contributions such as Daudin et al. (2011), Johnson and Noguera (2012), Koopmans et al. (2010), and Trefler and Zhu (2010) in measuring value added trade based on input-output tables as generalizations of the vertical specialization measures following Hummels et al. (2001). These studies focused on trade in intermediate goods as a key feature of recent global trade. In the case of Korea, about 50% of total exports and 70% of its total imports are intermediate goods trade. This paper contributes to the discussion about the trade in intermediate goods and productivity by revisiting Basu (1995), Jones (2011), and Lee and Pyo (2007) to examine implications of trade in intermediate goods for macroeconomic business cycles and productivity and welfare at the current stage of Korean development. The major revision of the Basu (1995) model is attempted by decomposing intermediate goods into domestically produced intermediate inputs and imported intermediate inputs to investigate implications of the model in a small open economy. The major finding is that the procyclicality of the intermediate goods usage relative to labor usage and TFP changes in both value added and gross-output regressions are significantly weaker in a small open economy like Korea than the large economy of the United States. We also investigate the effects of misallocation and multiplier effects due to intermediate goods on industrial productivity and efficiency following the model of Jones (2011). Since the effects of misallocation can be intensified through the industrial input-output structure of the economy, we calculate the intermediate goods multiplier by Korea's 29 manufacturing industries. We find technical changes and the degree of inefficiency are related with the magnitude of multipliers, but we leave a fundamental identification problem to future research
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Korea
393. China’s Development Finance to Asia: Characteristics and Implications
- Author:
- Oh Yoon Ah
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the determinants of China's development finance to developing countries with a focus on Asia from 2000 to 2012. It uses a recent version of China Aid Data, one of the most reliable and publicly available data sources that systematically collect and differentiate different types of China's official development financial flows. This paper differs from previous studies in two aspects that (1) it analyzes a wider range of developing countries, moving beyond earlier research largely limited to Africa; and (2) it examines regional variation in China's motives for development financing. The findings show that China's allocations decision for concessional development flows, or ODA, has mixed motives of humanitarian, commercial and strategic interests. It is noteworthy that China's ODA appears not to be in competition against, but rather in a complementary form to, established donors in this period. Yet substantial regional variation is observed, suggesting different regional dynamics are at work. On the other hand, it is found that China's allocations decision for less-concessional development financing largely follows commercial considerations. This paper also provides detailed discussion of the trends in China's development finance to Southeast Asia, which is an Asian region critical for China's economic and foreign policy interests. The paper ends with a discussion of the implications of possible shift in China's overseas development finance strategy since 2011.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Asia
394. Economic Effects of Anti-Dumping Duties: Protectionist Measures or Trade Remedies?
- Author:
- Choi Nakgyoon
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- This paper studied the effects of anti-dumping measures on the imports to investigate whether the trade restriction effect of an anti-dumping duty is dominant in the US, the EU, China, and India from 1996 to 2015. Our results indicate that a 1% increase in the anti-dumping duties decreases the import of the targeted product by about 0.43~0.51%. The actual statistics, however, show that the total import of the targeted products increased by about 30 percent while an anti-dumping duty was in force. That indicates that an anti-dumping duty is just a temporary import relief. This paper also investigated whether an anti-dumping duty is terminated in the case that the injury would not be likely to continue or recur if the duty were removed. The increase in market share, MFN tariff rate, and dumping margin turns out to decrease the hazard of termination of an anti-dumping duty, but the increase in value added increases the hazard of termination. Generally speaking, this result indicates that the WTO member countries have regulated the overuse of an anti-dumping measure. It also implies that anti-dumping duties have been used as a tool for trade remedy.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China
395. A New Measure of Inter-industry Distance and Its Application to the U.S. Regional Growth
- Author:
- Yoon Yeo Joon and Whang Un Jung
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- We propose a new measure of inter-industry ‘distance’. This is constructed a la Antras et al. (2012). While they measure the distance of an industry from its final use ？ what they call ‘downstreamness’ of an industry ？ we measure the distance between a pair of industries. Our proposed index is a measure of input-output linkages between industries that incorporates a ‘distance’ flavor. Our measure distinguishes the number of vertical production stages that an industry’s product goes through until it is finally used by another industry by assigning larger weights to the value of input use with longer production chains. Hence our measure contains more information on the relation between two industries along the vertical production chain. We use this index to construct an aggregate measure of ‘industry connectedness’ of regions in the U.S. It measures the degree of industrial linkages of a region. We then empirically establish that each region’s labor productivity is positively associated with the ‘industry connectedness’. The result contributes to the large literature of agglomeration economies that the industrial linkage is one of the main sources of agglomeration economies and productivity growth, as emphasized by Marshall (1920). It also suggests that our index can serve as an alternative measure of the industrial linkages.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
396. What Explains Current Account Surplus in Korea?
- Author:
- Han Chirok and Shin Kwanho
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- Some countries have persistent current account surplus, contributing to global imbalances up to a level that is worrisome. For example, Germany has been continuously experiencing current account surpluses since 2002, amounting to 8.4% of GDP in 2015. China has never experienced current account deficits since 1997, the year that data is first available. Japan's record is even longer; its consecutive current account surplus started from 1981. Recently, Korea joined this large current-account surplus club: since the currency crisis in 1997, Korea's current account balance has been continuously in the black, expanding even more in these recent years. In this paper, we present an empirical methodology that explains how current account balances are determined and by employing it, try to diagnose factors that account for Korea's current account surplus. In fact, the IMF has introduced a methodology, the External Balance Assessment (EBA: Phillips et al., 2013), to assess exchange rate and current account gaps that are defined as the difference between current levels and those consistent with fundamentals. For example, the 2016 External Sector Report, by utilizing this methodology, demonstrates that Korea's real effective exchange rate in 2015 was 4 to 12 percent undervalued than the level consistent with fundamentals.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Korea
397. Government Spending Policy Uncertainty and Economic Activity: U.S. Time Series Evidence
- Author:
- Kim Wongi
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- In this paper, I empirically examine the effects of uncertainty about government spending policy on economic activity using U.S. time series data. To this end, I constructed government spending policy uncertainty indexes and estimate proxy SVAR model. Proxy SVAR model with constructed indexes shows that an increase in government spending policy uncertainty has negative, sizable, and prolonged effects on economic activity. Moreover, the results imply that the commonly adopted recursive SVAR model in literature on policy uncertainty systematically underestimates the adverse effect of government spending policy uncertainty because of the endogeneity issue. One policy suggestion based on the empirical finding is clear announcement of future government spending path.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
398. Linkages to the Resource Sector: The Role of Companies, Governments, and International Development Cooperation
- Author:
- Columbia Centre on Sustainable Investment
- Publication Date:
- 07-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- With support from GIZ, CCSI prepared a report titled “Linkages to the Resource Sector: The Role of Companies, Governments, and International Development Cooperation.” It outlines options for how these stakeholders can increase the economic linkages to the extractive industries sector not only in terms of ‘breadth’ (number of linkages) but also in terms of ‘depth’ (local value added). Apart from providing the theoretical framework for linkage creation and an overview of existing literature on this topic, the study highlights successful case study examples. Recommendations are provided for the three types of stakeholders.
- Topic:
- Government, International Political Economy, and Natural Resources
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
399. The Geopolitics of East Asia: New Geometries of Competition and Cooperation
- Author:
- Adriana Erthal Abdenur
- Publication Date:
- 09-2016
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
- Abstract:
- The present study aims to develop an analysis of how the fast-changing geopolitics and geoeconomics of East Asia impacts current and potential trends in cross-regional economic cooperation, with a focus on Latin America. The paper revolves around three anchor trends: i. The Economic Transformation of East Asia; ii. Security and Cooperation in the Pacific; and iii. Mega-Agreements. For each of these areas, the study provides a succinct yet analytical overview of current debates by incorporating both Western and non-Western perspectives from academe and policy
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and International Development
- Political Geography:
- East Asia
400. The Trans-Pacific Partnership The politics of openness and leadership in the Asia-Pacific
- Author:
- MIREYA SOLIS and Mireya Solis
- Publication Date:
- 10-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Trade policy, and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in particular, is vitally connected to the national interests of prosperity, security, and governance. With novel rules on the digital economy, high tariff elimina- tion targets, and disciplines to address behind-the-border protectionism, the TPP creates opportunities for American sectors that enjoy competitive strength—services, advanced manufacturing, agriculture—to expand their reach in overseas markets. Projected annual income gains from this trade deal range between $57 billion and $131 billion by 2032, compared to a base- line scenario. In sharp contrast to the experience of import competition with China, the TPP will not impose large adjustment costs in terms of employment and wages, generating instead a net (albeit small) positive effect on job creation and wage rates. However, the individual costs for displaced employees are very high, and the contours of a new pro-adjustment safety net that enables workers to navigate difficult economic transitions (brought about by technological change or trade) are highlighted below.
- Topic:
- Globalization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- America and Asia-Pacific