Topic: Government / Publication Year: within 25 Years

3101. Linking Democracy and Development: An Idea for the Times

Author:: Hal Lippman
Publication Date:: 06-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:: IN THE POST–COLD WAR ERA, a variety of factors, some internal to USAID, some external, have prompted the emergence of linkages between democracy and governance (DG) programs and those of the Agency's other strategic goals. Downsizing, conducive host-country situations, shifts in thinking about development, and creative leaders and staff all have spurred the incorporation of democratic principles into Agency activities. In some missions, accountability, participation, responsiveness, and transparency are now an integral part of environmental, economic growth, health, and education activities. And missions have found they are achieving positive results and bolstered governance, creating synergy that promotes USAID's overall mission.
Topic:: Democratization, Development, Economics, Government, and Politics

3102. Urban and Industrial Pollution Programs: Czech Republic Case Study

Author:: Matthew Addison, Steven Gale, Keith Forbes, and Michael Gould
Publication Date:: 04-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:: In 1995 USAID Launched the Environmental Action Program Support Project. EAPS grew out of a 1993 international conference held in Lucerne, Switzerland, to develop a joint environmental action program. The project sought to decrease environmental degradation in six central and eastern European countries that were making the transition from centrally controlled economies and authoritarian governments to open markets and more democratic institutions. The Czech Republic was the first USAID-assisted country where EAPS was implemented.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Environment, and Government
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Switzerland, and Czech Republic

3103. Moral Freedom or Moral Anarchy?

Author:: Alan Wolfe
Publication Date:: 09-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Clarke Forum for Contemporary Issues
Abstract:: It is very difficult to discuss the issues which are raised in my book, without talking about September 11. This event is so important in our history, and, in fact, so important in the history of the modern world generally, that I am going to tailor at least some of my comments around it and try to reflect both on the event itself and on some of the things that I have said in my work over the course of the last few years and how these things interact with each other.
Topic:: Education, Government, Politics, and Religion

3104. Pathways of Property Transformation: Enterprise Network Careers in Hungary, 1988-2000 Outline of an Analytic Strategy

Author:: Balázs Vedres and David Stark
Publication Date:: 10-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
Abstract:: This study analyzes the restructuring of a national economy by identifying the career pathways of its enterprises. This analysis is conducted in a setting strategically chosen as a case of rapid and profound economic transformation: the postsocialist Hungarian economy between 1988-2000. The goal of this study is to chart the multiple pathways of property transformation. Property pathways are conceptualized as the patterned sequences of change that firms undergo 1) in the composition of their ownership structure and 2) in their position within network structures of ties to other enterprises. These career pathways are neither unidirectional nor plotted in advance. The landscape and topography of the socioeconomic field are given shape and repeatedly transformed by the interaction of the multiple strategies of firms attempting to survive in the face of variable political, institutional, and market uncertainties. These different types of uncertainties will have different temporalities, and the study explores whether and how they increase or diminish in various periods. We develop and test specific hypotheses about how enterprise pathways along the compositional and positional property dimensions are related to the shifting contexts of these types of uncertainty. The core dataset for this study includes the complete ownership histories of approximately 1,800 of the largest enterprises in Hungary for a twelve year period, starting with the collapse of communism in 1989, recording each change in a company's top 25 owners on a monthly basis. Monthly entries for each enterprise also include changes in top management, boards of directors, major lines of product activity, raising or lowering of capital, and location of establishments and branch offices, as well as the dates of founding, mergers, bankruptcy, etc. Data on revenues, number of employees, and operating profit will be compiled from annual balance sheets. These rich data make it possible to map the life cycles of the business groups that are formed by network ties among enterprises, identifying not only when they arise, merge, or dissipate, but also the changing shapes of their network properties. To identify patterns of change, the study draws on sequence analysis, a research tool that makes possible the study of historical processes in an eventful way similar to historiography while retaining social scientific abstraction. Whereas sequence analysis has given us a perspective on careers as historical processes but has not been applied to business organizations, network analysis has been applied to business organizations but has not been done historically. The methodological innovation at the heart of this study is to combine the tools of sequence analysis and network analysis to yield a sequence analysis of changing network positions.
Topic:: Economics and Government
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Hungary

3105. Policy Space and voting Coalitions in Congress: the Bearing of Policy on Politics, 1930-1954

Author:: Ira Katznelson, John Lapinski, and Rose Razaghian
Publication Date:: 08-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
Abstract:: The question of how the substance of politics helps shape legislative coalitions and bases of support has been displaced from the center of studies of Congress since the publication of pioneering work in the 1960s and early 1970s. Seeking to revive this research program, we apply an original coding scheme in tandem with a factor analytic analysis of voting and policy space to the period spanning the last years of the Hoover presidency to the start of Eisenhower's. Investigating legislator parameters—the dimensions of voting space—and roll call parameters—the dimensions of policy space—the paper confirms the strong independent impact of the substance of policy on the political decisions of legislators and reveals an issue-specific concatenation of party and region that altered over the course of the period.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: United States

3106. Global Humanitarian Emergencies: Trends and Projections, 1999-2000

Publication Date:: 12-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: Both the number and intensity of humanitarian emergencies, as well as the number of people in need, will remain at about the same high level or even increase somewhat by December 2000- testing the capacity and willingness of the international donor community to respond adequately. According to the US Committee for Refugees, roughly 35 million people are in need of emergency humanitarian assistance. There are twenty-four ongoing humanitarian emergencies and new or renewed emergencies could appear in the Balkans, Sub-Saharan Africa, Russia, and/or Central America. Humanitarian conditions throughout the former Yugoslavia, Haiti, Iraq, and North Korea will continue to have a particularly significant impact upon regional stability, as well as on the strategic interests of major outside powers. Conditions are likely to worsen in Angola, Colombia, Ethiopia, Somalia, and the Republic of Serbia within the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY), excluding the province of Kosovo. The current drought in the Horn of Africa may induce a famine as severe as that of the mid-1980s. The humanitarian situations in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DROC) and Sierra Leone are unlikely to improve significantly even if pending peace accords hold, and could worsen considerably if such accords were to fail. In addition to the emergencies cited above, several other major countries and regions may experience conflict, political instability, sudden economic crises, or technological or natural disasters- leading to new or renewed humanitarian emergencies: Resumed hostilities between India and Pakistan that expanded beyond the borders of Kashmir, as they did in previous conflicts, would displace a million or more people on both sides of the border. The countries of Central America and the Caribbean that were battered by hurricanes in 1998- especially Honduras, Nicaragua, Dominican Republic, and Haiti-remain vulnerable to weather-induced disasters. Internal ethnic conflict would create substantial humanitarian needs in The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM). The possibility of additional sudden economic emergencies also cannot be discounted. In Russia, drought threatens the grain harvest, and unless the outlook improves, Moscow will again need large-scale food assistance. Despite Nigeria's turn toward democracy, escalating conflict in the oil-rich Niger River Delta region could lead to widespread refugee flows into neighboring countries. The possible effects of widespread Y2K-related difficulties could aggravate current humanitarian emergencies or lead to new emergencies. The overall demand for emergency humanitarian assistance through December 2000 may exceed the willingness of major donor countries to respond. Overall funding for ongoing emergencies has probably temporarily spiked upward owing to Hurricane Mitch and Kosovo. Nevertheless, the focus on the Balkans could detract attention and resources from other regions with extensive humanitarian needs. Absent major new emergencies, the longer-term funding trend is likely to continue downward, increasing the shortfall. Government funding is likely to decline fastest for long-lasting conflicts where attempts at political resolution continue to fail.
Topic:: Genocide, Government, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:: Russia, Balkans, and Central America

3107. Workshop on Information Technology in Africa

Publication Date:: 10-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: The last 20 years have been characterized by rapid improvements in information technology and have com e to be regarded as the “Information Revolution.” The Information Revolution is changing the speed at which information is communicated, the facility with which calculations can be conducted in real time, and the costs and speed of observation of physical phenomena. Applications of IT in transportation mean that people and goods can be moved m o re efficiently; applications to the production process mean that goods and services can be produced m o re efficiently.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: Africa

3108. Global Humanitarian Emergencies: Trends and Projections, 2001-2002

Publication Date:: 08-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: The capacity and willingness of the international community to respond to humanitarian emergencies will continue to be stretched through December 2002. The overall number of people in need of emergency humanitarian assistance—now approximately 42 million—is likely to increase: Five ongoing emergencies—in Afghanistan, Burundi, Colombia, North Korea and Sudan—cause almost 20 million people to be in need of humanitarian assistance as internally displaced persons (IDPs), refugees, or others in need in their home locations. All these emergencies show signs of worsening through 2002. In addition, humanitarian conditions may further deteriorate in populous countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo (DROC) or Indonesia. The total number of humanitarian emergencies—20—is down from 25 in January 2000. Of the current emergencies: Eleven are in countries experiencing internal conflict—Afghanistan, Angola, Burundi, Colombia, DROC, Indonesia, Russia/Chechnya, Sierra Leone, Sri Lanka, Sudan, and Uganda. Two—in Iraq and North Korea—are due largely to severe government repression. The remaining six—in Azerbaijan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Yugoslavia—are humanitarian emergencies that have entered the transitional stage beyond prolonged conflict, repressive government policies, and/or major natural disasters. The primary cause of the emergency in Tajikistan is drought. Several other countries currently experiencing humanitarian emergencies—Afghanistan, Eritrea, Ethiopia, North Korea, Somalia, and Sudan—also are affected by major, persistent natural disasters.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Government, and Human Rights
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iraq, North Korea, and Somalia

3109. Decentralization and Regionalization after Communism: Lessons from Administrative and Territorial Reform in Poland and the Czech Republic

Author:: Jennifer Yoder
Publication Date:: 04-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Wilson Center
Abstract:: While the regional level of authority has gained much attention in recent years in Western Europe, Eastern Europe is still emerging from decades of centralization and homogenization under communism. Several post-communist countries, however, have taken steps toward administrative decentralization and territorial regionalization. This article explores possible reasons for taking these steps and traces the progress of administrative and territorial reform in two post-communist cases: Poland and the Czech Republic. The conclusion considers several implications of these reforms for domestic politics and foreign relations.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Europe

3110. Failure of Perception and Self-Deception: Israel's Quest for Peace in the Context of Related Historical Cases

Author:: Joel S. Fishman
Publication Date:: 03-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:: An examination of the historical record reveals many examples of failures of perception, and of leaders and governments refusing to integrate compelling information of existential importance. Taking account of new information and responding to changing circumstances is vital to man's relationship with his environment. When a dysfunction in the process of absorbing important new knowledge and correcting mistakes occurs, the faculty of rational judgment may be fatefully impaired. While, collectively, the attitude of a society is the sum of those of individuals, occasionally, the perception of a single individual in an influential position may be sufficient to determine a government's policy.
Topic:: Security, Environment, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

3111. Jerusalem in International Diplomacy: The 2000 Camp David Summit, the Clinton Plan, and Their Aftermath

Author:: Dore Gold
Publication Date:: 02-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:: Since its independence in 1948, and indeed even in prior times, Israel's rights to sovereignty in Jerusalem have been firmly grounded in history and international law. The aftermath of the 1967 Six-Day War only reinforced the strength of Israel's claims. Seven years after the implementation of the 1993 Oslo Agreements, Prime Minister Ehud Barak became the first Israeli prime minister to consider re-dividing Jerusalem in response to an American proposal at the July 2000 Camp David Summit. The December 2000 Clinton Plan attempted to codify Barak's possible concessions on Jerusalem. Yet they proved to be insufficient for PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat, leading to a breakdown in the peace process and an outburst of Palestinian violence with regional implications. At least the failed Clinton Plan did not bind future Israeli governments or U.S. administrations, leaving open the possibility of new diplomatic alternatives. Only by avoiding premature negotiation over an unbridgeable issue such as Jerusalem can the U.S., Israel, and the Palestinians stabilize the volatile situation that has emerged and restore hope that a political process can be resumed in the future.
Topic:: Security, Government, International Law, Religion, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:: United States, America, Middle East, and Israel

3112. U.S. Opposition to the International Criminal Court: Unfounded Fears

Author:: Robert C. Johansen
Publication Date:: 06-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
Abstract:: U.S. opposition to creating a permanent international criminal court arises from unwarranted fears that U.S. officials might be wrongly prosecuted. Opposition also rests on a mistaken belief that the United States can protect legitimate national sovereignty only by rejecting international legal constraints on criminal abuses of sovereignty. However, the proposed court would serve U.S. interests by investigating the world's worst international crimes and assigning individual responsibility for them, reducing collective blame for the criminal acts of individuals, discouraging atrocities, and upholding international law while protecting against politically motivated prosecutions.
Topic:: Government, International Law, and International Organization
Political Geography:: United States

3113. Department of the Navy: Two-Level Performance Management Program

Publication Date:: 09-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The National Academy of Public Administration (NAPA)
Abstract:: To gauge the effectiveness of its Two - Level Program, the Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Navy (Civilian Personnel/Equal Employment Opportunity) of the Department of the Navy (DON) engaged the services of the National Academy of Public Administration's (NAPA) Center for Human Resources Management (CHRM). The NAPA review focused on the extent to which implementation of the DON Two - Level Program fosters adherence to critical program elements including system requirements, awards and recognition, career development and advancement, a more productive environment, and improved communication and feedback. Data were analyzed to determine compliance with program requirements, identify successful approaches, document significant program outcomes, and examine best practices.
Topic:: Civil Society, Government, Industrial Policy, and International Organization

3114. Making and Unmaking Authoritarian Peru: Re-election, Resistance, and Regime Transition

Author:: Catherine M. Conaghan
Publication Date:: 05-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: One of the time-honored constitutional traditions of Latin America—the ban on immediate presidential re-election—gave way to political change in the 1990s. Cloaked in controversy, the trend began in Peru. In 1992, President Alberto Fujimori led an auto-coup (auto-golpe) that closed Congress and suspended the 1979 Constitution. The auto-coup eventually led to a new Constitution in 1993. The new Constitution lifted the ban on immediate presidential re-election, allowing a president to stay in office for two consecutive five-year terms.
Topic:: Democratization and Government
Political Geography:: Latin America and Peru

3115. When Democracy Isn't All that Democratic: Social Exclusion and the Limits of the Public Sphere in Latin America

Author:: Philip Oxhorn
Publication Date:: 04-2001
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: During much of the 1970s and 1980s, the principal political struggles throughout Latin America revolved around the creation of democratic political regimes based on the right to vote. Now that this right has been effectively established in virtually every country of the region, 1 the limits of political democracy as traditionally defined are becoming increasingly apparent (Oxhorn and Ducatenzeiler 1998; Agüero and Stark 1998; Chalmers et al. 1997). These countries are indisputably political democracies, yet the quality of democratic rule leaves much to be desired. Recent studies of the democratic deficits in Latin America have focused on a variety of dimensions (including extremes of economic inequality, poverty, growing levels of criminality, limits on citizenship rights, the weakness of civil society, problems of representation, and the weakness of political parties, among others)
Topic:: Democratization, Development, and Government
Political Geography:: Latin America and Caribbean

3116. European Union: Belgian Presidency

Publication Date:: 07-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: The rotating EU presidency this week passed from the Swedish to the Belgian government. The Belgian presidency faces a considerable test of nerve as it attempts to square its constitutional ambitions for further political integration with the increasing unpredictability of European public opinion. The new public mood of caution towards European integration has resulted in a notable ambivalence on the part of Verhofstadt. While stressing the importance of a completely open debate, Verhofstadt is also using the more closed approach of close consultation between governments and their representatives in preparing keynote proposals for the Laeken European Council, which, in reality, is the only way of reaching solutions.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: Europe

3117. Argentina — Federal Stand-Off

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 06-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Opposition Peronist party governors and trade unions this week broke off institutional dialogue with the federal government over recent economic measures and pending debts. The fourteen governors in question, their minds on mid-term legislative elections, believe that the political cost of supporting the government will be greater than the cost of being seen to scupper its initiatives, and that opposition constitutes a more effective means of pressing their demands. Their decision puts the prospects for Argentina's economic recovery at risk. The Peronist governors' decision to distance themselves from the government both reflects and compounds the weakness of the federal administration. While their new approach to force concessions from the government could ease social problems in the short term, there is a danger that it will do so at the expense of economic recovery and political stability in the longer term.
Topic:: Economics, Government, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:: South America

3118. Iran — Khatami Landslide

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 06-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: President Mohammed Khatami was re-elected on June 8 by a huge margin. Khatami's supporters are already talking about a renewed campaign for reform under a reorganised cabinet and a reinvigorated Majlis. However, the obstacles to such a programme remain formidable. Khatami is likely to press a little more strongly for reform, especially in the economic field. However, doubts remains that he or his parliamentary colleagues have the means to use the renewed mandate provided by the election to press for radical change. Any change is therefore likely to modest and incremental, though, in the Iranian context, significant.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

3119. Nepal — Royal Murders

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 06-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: The new King of Nepal, Gyanendra Shah, promised an inquiry into the massacre that killed almost the entire royal family on June 1. Given the former king's legacy as adored head of state and symbol of stability, his violent death has created extreme political uncertainty. It has occurred at a time of general political unrest in the form of strikes and demonstrations in the towns and an increasingly violent Maoist insurrection in the countryside. In the short term, violent demonstrations over the unsatisfactory nature of official explanations of how the royal family died will continue. They may do so even after the findings of the independent inquiry into the deaths are announced. A return to calm depends largely on King Gyanendra's ability to govern in the same manner as his murdered brother.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: South Asia and Nepal

3120. European Union — Takeover Tensions

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 05-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: The proposed takeover bids directive may be lost unless the differences between the European Parliament (EP) and the Council of Ministers are resolved by June 6. The ongoing negotiations between the Council and the EP in the conciliation committee may be made more difficult by Germany's recent decision to renege on the Council common position on the directive. The move was received with incomprehension in other EU member states. Germany so far stands alone in its attempt to change the directive. Nevertheless, its decision could give MEPs enough ammunition to avoid a compromise in the conciliation committee, and hence to allow the directive to fail. More importantly, Germany's decision also draws attention to the various level-playing field issues still to be addressed in the area of corporate control through greater harmonisation of company law.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

3121. Italy — Berlusconi Victory

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 05-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: The outcome of last Sunday's general election is now clear. Although the centre-right has won substantial majorities in both houses of parliament, both the Alleanza Nazionale and the Northern League suffered setbacks. The League failed to pass the threshold needed to qualify for a share of the quarter of seats in the Chamber of Deputies allocated by proportional representation. For the time being, Forza Italia, and therefore Berlusconi, who dominates the party, is in firm control of the centre-right coalition. If Berlusconi can retain his authority over the coalition for the next five years, it could assist in stabilising a still highly-fractured and potentially unstable party system.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: Europe and Italy

3122. Japan — LDP Prognosis

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 04-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will elect a new president on April 24. Given that the LDP is the largest party in parliament, its president will also become the country's prime minister. While the media and the public are demanding genuine leadership from the government, the LDP's structure militates strongly against forthright policy-making.
Topic:: Economics, Government, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:: Japan and East Asia

3123. United States — Medical Marijuana

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 04-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: The US Supreme Court heard oral argument last month on whether 'medical necessity' should override the federal government's blanket prohibition on the use of marijuana. If the Court were to accept this argument, it would provide a powerful boost to the medical marijuana movement and hamper the federal government's ability to pursue its current drugs policy. A ruling in favour of the federal government, however, would constrain the ability of states to formulate independent drug policies. The Supreme Court is likely to sidestep the substantive issue of whether 'medical necessity' allows the distribution of marijuana to seriously ill patients. Its inclination will be to decide the case on a narrow procedural ground which would leave the federal government to decide if it wishes to pursue criminal prosecutions.
Topic:: Security, Government, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States

3124. India — Arms Scandal

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 03-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: On March 15, Defence Minister George Fernandes resigned. Fernandes' resignation follows last week's revelations about cash-for-influence exchanges with journalists posing as arms dealers. Although the Union coalition government is likely to survive the affair, its prestige has been severely damaged. The most serious potential of the Tehelka scandal is the government's loss of the moral authority to forge ahead with its economic reform programme. Opponents of liberalisation, both on the right and the left, are attempting to draw political capital from the affair.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

3125. Japan — Monetary Easing

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 03-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced a new approach to monetary policy which effectively targets money supply growth and inflation on March 19. The BoJ has indicated that the immediate consequence of its measures to boost financial system liquidity will be to push short-term interest rates back to zero or virtually zero. It has pledged to maintain rates at this level until deflationary pressures are reversed and the consumer price index becomes positive. The BoJ's actions have the potential to lead to a revival in share prices, corporate activity and bank lending. If the initiative results in a sustained weakening of the yen, the economy may also benefit from stronger export growth. However, the effect of all of these measures will be blunted unless they are accompanied by the structural reforms which the government has for some time foreshadowed, but which have suffered from delay and indecision.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Japan and East Asia

3126. Indonesia — Kalimantan Consequences

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 03-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: President Aburrahman Wahid yesterday visited Central Kalimantan, the scene of violent clashes between local Dayaks and Madurese settlers. The crisis has its origins in the ill-conceived transmigration policies of the Suharto era. Despite its localised and specific nature, there is a significant risk that it will embolden other outer-island communities to move more decisively against non-indigenous sections of local populations. This would place further strains on the thinly-stretched security forces. With Wahid's authority already weakened, the crisis in Central Kalimantan will strengthen the position of hard-line elements in the military who are opposed to the president. Nonetheless, Megawati's ability to gain political capital will be limited by the fact that she herself has a leading role in formulating policy towards the regions.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Government, Migration, and Politics
Political Geography:: Indonesia and Southeast Asia

3127. Moldova — Communist Government

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 03-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: The Party of Moldovan Communists (PCM) has won full control over parliament following the February 25 general election. The decisive result has broken the country's political stalemate and allows the PCM to select the president, premier and parliamentary speaker without needing to form a coalition in the chamber. However, uncertainties over the PCM's economic policy and political priorities persist. While the PCM has a monopoly on power, this could be undermined by continued economic decline, internal party splits and a nationalist backlash against its pro-Russian orientation. The PCM will seek allies in domestic politics, and will seek to find the external partner, whether Russia or the IFIs, best able to assist in the long-term revival of the economy.
Topic:: Communism, Government, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:: Moldova and Eastern Europe

3128. Indonesia — Wahid Reprieve

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 03-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: The past month has seen an escalation of elite political conflict in Jakarta, with enemies of President Abdurrahman Wahid engineering an investigation into allegations that he was involved in two financial corruption scandals. This investigation culminated in the endorsement by a majority of members of the House of Representatives on February 1 of a 'memorandum' concluding that the president was indeed implicated in corruption and demanding that he account for his actions. Many opposition legislators also called for the convening of a special session of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), the 700-member supra-parliamentary body which elected Wahid as president in October 1999 and has sole power to remove him.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: Indonesia and Southeast Asia

3129. United States — Bush Administration

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 02-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: A combination of good fortune and some skilful planning have allowed the Bush administration to make a successful start in office. These factors will probably allow the president to pursue much of his agenda effectively this year. However, difficulties will be encountered once Washington politics becomes preoccupied by the 2002 congressional elections.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: United States and Washington

3130. Israel — Sharon Victory

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 02-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Likud leader Ariel Sharon's resounding victory in last Tuesday's election for prime minister has produced a chaotic political situation. The Knesset is likely to remain as dysfunctional as it was before the election campaign and Sharon will face immense difficulties in his attempts to form a government and pass the budget. Even should he succeed, it is possible that the government will fall before the next scheduled election, and that he will face a credible challenge from former prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

3131. Ukraine — Kuchma Cornered

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 02-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Opposition deputies, led by former justice minister Serhiy Holovatiy, have called on President Leonid Kuchma to resign over his alleged involvement in the murder of a journalist. The scandal has provoked popular protests and divided Kuchma's non-left majority in parliament, although the work of the reformist government has not been adversely affected. The case has highlighted the absence of the rule of law and the executive's control over supposedly independent state organs. Kuchma's fate depends on his ability to retain the support of oligarchic interests, some of which have already defected. His departure would enable the popular Yushchenko to campaign for the presidency while enjoying the benefits of incumbency, albeit in a temporary capacity.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: Ukraine and Eastern Europe

3132. United Kingdom — Mandelson Departure

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 02-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, Peter Mandelson, resigned in acrimonious circumstances last week. Mandelson was a key figure in the reconstruction of the Labour Party in the 1990s and the most prominent partisan of early euro entry in the UK cabinet. While Mandelson's departure will be felt within the Labour Party and comes at a critical time in the Northern Ireland peace process, the most substantial impact is likely to be on the internal debate within the cabinet over euro-area entry, with the consequence of a diminishing likelihood of an early referendum on the issue.
Topic:: Government, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and North Ireland

3133. Philippines — Macapagal-Arroyo Elevation

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 01-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Newly inaugurated President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo installed herself in Manila's Malacanang presidential palace on January 22. Macapagal-Arroyo's elevation from vice-president to president represents the culmination of a long campaign by opposition politicians and civic figures to unseat Joseph Estrada from the presidency. While Macapagal-Arroyo's administrative style is likely to differ markedly from her predecessor, her accession also represents the return to political prominence of elite groups closely associated with the presidencies of Corazon Aquino and Fidel Ramos. The ouster of Estrada significantly diminishes the political and economic uncertainty and instability which has plagued the country for several months. However, as the euphoria of 'people power' fades, factional politics within the new administration, and the regrouping of pro-Estrada forces in a new opposition, are likely to present Macapagal-Arroyo with significant challenges.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: Philippines and Southeast Asia

3134. CIAO: Russia: Weimar Analogy

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 01-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Striking parallels exist between post-Soviet Russia and Weimar Germany (1918-33) with regard to their international position, socio-economic conditions, sense of defeat and humiliation, and political situation. The analogy implies that a fascist regime is likely to come to power in Russia. However, the underlying causes of economic distress, the structure of the political system, and the cultural context in post-Soviet Russia and Weimar Germany also differ. Thus, contemporary Russia has weak fascist movements. The regime that emerges will probably be authoritarian and nationalist in character, and may to some extent exhibit fascist tendencies, but is very unlikely to be fully fascist in the classical sense.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: Russia and Germany

3135. Venezuela’s Tinfoil “Revolution”

Author:: Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:: 04-2001
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:: After forty years of politics as usual, Venezuela has suddenly become an object of curiosity to the world’s press. The reason is President Hugo Chávez, a forty-six-year-old former lieutenant colonel who first came to the attention of Venezuelans in 1992 when he and a group of other junior officers attempted to overthrow the government of President Carlos Andrés Pérez. Amnestied by Pérez’s successor, Chávez began a political career of his own, and in 1998, running as the candidate of the so-called Fifth Republic Revolutionary Movement (MVR), he was elected by a decisive majority. Two and a half years later, he is still an enigma—to Venezuelans, to the United States, and to everyone else. Given the centrality of his country to the oil producers’ cartel and, even more, given the current dependence of the United States on Venezuelan oil, he merits a closer look.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Government, Natural Resources, and Hugo Chavez
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, and Venezuela

3136. Of Linguistic Jacobinism And Cultural Balkanization: Contemporary French Linguistic Politics in Historical Context

Author:: Paul Cohen
Publication Date:: 06-2000
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: French Politics, Culture Society
Institution:: Conference Group on French Politics Society
Abstract:: In few countries has language played a greater role in constituting national identity than in modern France. French is first and foremost a political idiom, enshrined by the leaders of the Revolution and the Third Republic as the language of the Republic and the Nation. The French state promotes the use of French at home and throughout the world through an array of government institutions, including the Académie française, the Ministry of Culture and the agencies responsible for France's francophonie policies. The French language also represents a highly charged common cultural ground marking the boundaries of French society.3 Whether in informal conversation and public debate, in annual rituals like Bernard Pivot's televised "concours de dictées," or on the editorial pages of national newspapers, the French betray an intense awareness of linguistic issues. The defense and illustration of French has long been for French intellectuals and leaders a passionate vocation.
Topic:: Government
Political Geography:: France

3137. Gérard Noiriel's Third Republic

Author:: Robert O. Paxton
Publication Date:: 06-2000
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: French Politics, Culture Society
Institution:: Conference Group on French Politics Society
Abstract:: Gérard Noiriel, Les Origines républicaines de Vichy (Paris: Hachette Littératures, 1999). This book has raised hackles in France, and one can see why. It is by turns illuminating, tendentious, and pugnacious. At its best it accomplishes first-rate historical work. Its central four chapters make an enduring contribution to understanding the exclusionary project of Vichy France. Polemical first and last chapters detract somewhat from this achievement. Noiriel's powerful central chapters address a key conundrum about Vichy: How did the odious discriminatory and exclusionary measures taken by Pétain's governments, so manifestly contrary to French republican values, find such broad acquiescence among the mainstream republican elite?
Topic:: Government
Political Geography:: France

3138. Privatization and the Distribution of Assets in Brazil

Author:: Roberto Macedo
Publication Date:: 07-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: This paper focuses on the Brazilian privatization program undertaken in the 1990s, one of the largest in the world, as a result of which over US$71 billion worth of equity capital and US$17 billion of debt owed by the former state-owned enterprises (SOEs) were transferred to private owners, both at the federal and state levels.
Topic:: Development, Government, and Human Rights
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, and Latin America

3139. Natural Resources, Human Capital, and Growth

Author:: Nancy Birdsall, Thomas Pinckney, and Richard Sabot
Publication Date:: 02-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: In this paper, we present evidence that among developing countries, those that are resource-abundant invest less in education. We then discuss the economic processes behind this evidence. We describe a virtuous circle in which rising private returns to human capital and other assets lead to increased work effort and higher rates of private investment immediately, including among the poor, and generate higher productivity and lower inequality in the future. With resource abundance, however, governments are tempted to move away from the policies that generate this virtuous circle. Dutch Disease and related effects tend to lower the rate of return to the agricultural and human capital investments available to the poor. Resource rents accumulate in the hands of the government, and/or a small number of businessmen, further reducing incentives to invest. Staple-trap effects lead to the subsidization of capital, thereby taxing labor. The labor market in the resulting capital-intensive economy offers little benefit for moderate levels of education. The government may try to assuage the poor by directing some proportion of resource rents to populist programs that create new fiscal burdens but that do not enhance productivity. In short, resource abundance tends to break the virtuous circle linking education, growth and inequality in several places: the choice of development strategy, the level of inequality, the lack of incentives for investment in education, and the creation of a welfare state. We illustrate this breakdown by contrasting the cases of Korea and Brazil, and, since resource abundance need not be destiny, we conclude with policy lessons for resource-abundant developing economies.
Topic:: Economics, Education, Emerging Markets, Government, Political Economy, and Third World
Political Geography:: Brazil and Korea

3140. Democracy Assistance and NGO Strategies in Post-Communist Societies

Author:: Sarah E. Mendelson and John K. Glenn
Publication Date:: 02-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Since the end of the Cold War, Eastern Europe and Eurasia have been host to a virtual army of Western non-governmental organizations (NGOs)-from the United States, Britain, Germany, and elsewhere in Europe-all working on various aspects of institutional development, such as helping to establish competitive political parties and elections, independent media, and civic advocacy groups, as well as trying to reduce ethnic conflict. Little is known-although much good and bad is believed-about the impact of this assistance, carried out on a transnational level in cooperation with local political and social activists. This study, based at Columbia University, was designed to address this gap.
Topic:: Democratization, Government, International Organization, and Politics
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Europe, Eastern Europe, and Asia

3141. Naturalization in the Wake of Anti-Immigrant Legislation: Dominicans in New York City

Author:: Audrey Singer and Greta Gilbertson
Publication Date:: 02-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The motives of immigrants who seek to naturalize in the United States are a source of current controversy. Recent events, such as the passage in 1996 of anti-immigrant laws, appear to have increased the benefits of becoming a U.S. citizen and the costs of remaining a legal permanent resident. Critics of recent policies have argued that the laws pushed immigrants to naturalize in order to retain social welfare benefits, thus cheapening the value of U.S. citizenship. Most of the debate on this issue, however, is based on rhetoric rather than observation. The extant literature provides little insight into how these recent developments influence immigrants' propensity to naturalize through shaping their perceptions of citizenship. How immigrants understand and view the costs and benefits of U.S. citizenship are important, because they are likely to be the most proximate determinants of naturalization decisions (Alvarez 1987; Yang 1994).
Topic:: Government and Migration
Political Geography:: United States and New York

3142. Arrogance of Power Reborn: The Imperial Presidency and Foreign Policy in the Clinton Years

Author:: Gene Healy
Publication Date:: 10-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: In his classic 1973 book The Imperial Presidency, historian Arthur Schlesinger Jr. warned that the American political system was threatened by “a conception of presidential power so spacious and peremptory as to imply a radical transformation of the traditional polity.” America's rise to global dominance and Cold War leadership, Schlesinger explained, had dangerously concentrated power in the presidency, transforming the Framers' energetic but constitutionally constrained chief executive into a sort of elected emperor with virtually unchecked authority in the international arena.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Government
Political Geography:: United States and America

3143. Microsoft's Appealing Case

Author:: Alan Reynolds and Robert A. Levy
Publication Date:: 11-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Judge Thomas Penfield Jackson's final judgment in the Microsoft case indicates that he has fallen hook, line, and sinker for the government's flawed arguments. But the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit is unlikely to be so accommodating. The Justice Department's case will crumble as a result of procedural errors, flawed fact-finding, wrongheaded legal conclusions, and Jackson's preposterous plan to break up the software company most directly responsible for America's high-tech revolution.
Topic:: Government, Industrial Policy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States and America

3144. Constitutional Problems with Enforcing the Biological Weapons Convention

Author:: Ronald D. Rotunda
Publication Date:: 09-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: The 1972 Biological Toxins and Weapons Convention—often called the Biological Weapons Convention, or BWC—requires the signatories to renounce the development, employment, transfer, acquisition, production, and possession of all biological weapons listed in the convention.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation and Government
Political Geography:: United States

3145. Local Administration of Social Assistance Programs in Russia

Author:: Raymond J. Struyk and Burton Richman
Publication Date:: 10-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Urban Institute
Abstract:: Competent administration is fundamental to successful reform of social assistance programs in transition economies. Only with such administration is there assurance that benefits are being delivered as intended in enabling legislation. Moreover, the perceived efficiency and fairness of administration influences the public's views of the new programs. In the Russian Federation local governments have primary responsibility for the administration of social assistance programs enacted by all levels of government
Topic:: Economics, Government, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

3146. Regional Economic Development in Eastern Europe: An Example from Poland

Author:: Raymond Struyk and Sharon Cooley
Publication Date:: 07-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Urban Institute
Abstract:: Small cities and towns are rapidly being recognized as key actors on the road to sustained economic development in the countries of Eastern Europe. Whether they are able to execute this central role will depend on their being able to undertake essential investments—which in turn requires the availability of finance and the strengthening of local administrative capacity.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:: Europe and Eastern Europe

3147. Illegal Aliens in Federal, State, and Local Criminal Justice Systems

Author:: Rebecca Clark and Scott Anderson
Publication Date:: 06-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Urban Institute
Abstract:: With the rising concern about the numbers and impacts of illegal aliens in the United States — as evidenced by the sweeping passage of Proposition 187 in California, the immigrant provisions in 1996 Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA), and Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act of 1996 (IIRIRA) — criminal illegal aliens have become a subject of particular focus. These individuals have not only entered or resided in the United States without the knowledge or permission of the U.S. government, but, while here, they have also violated the laws of the nation, its states, or municipalities.
Topic:: Government, International Law, and Migration
Political Geography:: United States

3148. Notes Toward a Theory of Multilevel Governing in Europe

Author:: Fritz W. Scharpf
Publication Date:: 05-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:: The complexity of the multi-level European polity is not adequately represented by the single-level theoretical concepts of competing "intergovernmentalist" and "supranationalist" approaches. By contrast, empirical research focusing on multilevel interactions tends either to emphasize the uniqueness of its objects, or to create novel concepts – which are likely to remain contested even among Europeanists and have the effect of isolating European studies from the political science mainstream in International Relations and Comparative Politics. These difficulties are bound to continue as long as researchers keep proposing holistic concepts that claim to represent the complex reality of the European polity as a whole. It is suggested that the present competition among poorly fitting and contested generalizations could be overcome if European studies made use of a plurality of simpler and complementary concepts, each of which is meant to represent the specific characteristics of certain subsets of multi-level interactions – which could also be applied and tested in other fields of political-science research. The paper goes on to describe four distinct modes of multi-level interaction in the European polity – "mutual adjustment", "intergovernmental negotiations", "joint-decision making", and "hierarchical direction" – and to discuss their characteristics by reference to the criteria of problem-solving capacity and institutional legitimacy.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Europe

3149. EMU Effects on International Trade and Investment

Author:: Harry Flam and Per Jansson
Publication Date:: 04-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: The partial effect of nominal exchange rate volatility on exports from each EMU member to the rest of the EMU is estimated on annual data for 1967-97, using modern time-series methods. The long-run relations between exchange rate volatility and exports are mostly negative and in several cases insignificantly different from zero. Thus, these estimates do not provide much support for the hypothesis that the elimination of nominal exchange rate volatility will significantly increase trade within the EMU. However, the EMU will presumably lead to geographical concentration of production and therefore indirectly to increased trade within the EMU and, during a transitional stage, to increased foreign direct investment, both within the EMU and between the EMU and the rest of the world.
Topic:: Economics, Government, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Europe

3150. The Impact of EMU on European Transition Economies

Author:: David Begg
Publication Date:: 04-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: An interesting theory of transition must give a convincing account of structural adjustment and supply side improvement. In this paper, I discuss the incentives for government to undertake costly supply side improvement and how these relate to incentives governing the design of monetary and fiscal policy during transition. The government cares about deviations of inflation, output and government spending from their ideal levels, is subject to a budget constraint in which inflation yields some real revenue, and recognizes the distortionary effects of excess levels of taxation. Costly structural adjustment enhances future output by reducing supply side distortions.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:: Europe

3151. EMU and the Developing Countries

Author:: Benjamin J. Cohen
Publication Date:: 03-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: The purpose of this paper is to explore economic and political implications of Europe's Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) for developing countries. In strictly economics terms, influences will be communicated through both trade and financial channels. Economies in the developing world will be affected by changes in European growth rates as well as by EMU's impact on transaction costs and enterprise competitiveness within Europe; they will also be impacted by changes in the structure and efficiency of Europe's capital markets. Modifications may be anticipated in borrowing and investment practices at the private level as well as in reserve and debt-management policies at the official level. In political terms, developing countries will be most directly influences by the anticipated rivalry between Europe's new single currency, the euro, and the dollar, which will compel developing countries to reconsider their own national currency strategies. Three conclusions stand out. First, except for selected groups of countries with particularly close ties to the EU, most economic linkages appear marginal at best. It is much easier to enumerate possible channels of transmission than to find many that appear quantitatively significant. Second, among economic effects of EMU, financial channels seem to matter more than trade channels. And third, across the full range of possible linkages, the most lasting influences for developing countries may well turn out, notably, to be political rather than either trade or financial. Significant changes are likely in exchange-rates regimes in many parts of the developing world.
Topic:: Emerging Markets, Government, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:: Europe

3152. Hong Kong Update: Fall 2000

Author:: Frank Ching, Ron Arculli, Steve Tsang, and Sunny Kai-sun Kwong
Publication Date:: 09-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: Since the Hong Kong Update's first issue was published in September 1997, the purpose of the bulletin has been to gauge accurately the continuing evolution of Hong Kong by presenting a broad spectrum of views on developments in the new Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR). The Update has presented views from Washington, Hong Kong, and other areas of the world by inviting authors from both the U.S. Congress and Hong Kong SAR government; Washington and Hong Kong policy community; and U.S., Hong Kong, and international academics.
Topic:: Civil Society, Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Israel, and Hong Kong

3153. Hong Kong Update: Spring 2000

Author:: Frank Ching, Sunny Kai-sun Kwong, Barry Mortimer, Byron Weng, and James C. Hsiung
Publication Date:: 03-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: Last year was a momentous time for Hong Kong's new mini- constitution, the Basic Law. The history is too well known to detail here. In brief, the Court of Final Appeal (CFA) decided the right of abode cases (Ng Ka Ling and Chan Kam Nga). Later, the Hong Kong government sought and obtained a “clarification” of the judgment and the chief executive applied to the Standing Committee of the National Peoples Congress (NPC) for a further interpretation of the sections interpreted by the CFA (particularly Article 24(2)(3) of the Basic Law). The decision of the CFA stood, but for the future the Standing Committee provided the interpretation contended for by the Hong Kong government. (Should it be thought that the new interpretation was entirely arbitrary it accorded with the one earlier found to be the true interpretation by the Court of Appeal.) Many lawyers, commentators, politicians, and academics alleged that, in consequence, rule of law had been damaged and even that the independence of the judiciary had been diminished. Now that the dust has settled, the time has come to assess calmly the main issues that caused the controversy and see where we now stand.
Topic:: Civil Society, Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Israel and Hong Kong

3154. ASEM 3: More Talk or Move Forward?

Author:: Yeo Lay Hwee
Publication Date:: 10-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: The Third ASEM Summit (ASEM 3) was held in Seoul on 20-21 October 2000. Openly, those who participated in the meeting, and several of the Asian newspapers, particularly the Korean papers, were happy to hail the meeting as a "success". What does it mean? With the presence of all heavy-weight European and Asian leaders - Tony Blair, Jacques Chirac, Gerhard Schroeder, Zhu Rongji, Yoshiro Mori, Abdurrahman Wahid, and the adoption of three Documents - The Chairman's Statement; Seoul Declaration for Peace on the Korean Peninsula; and the Asia-Europe Cooperation Framework 2000, it is possibly the best outcome one could hope for under the cloud of rumours of forum-fatigue, acrimonious debates about human rights, increasing divergences and complaints on the slow progress of some key initiatives such as the Trade Facilitation Action Plan (TFAP) during the preparatory process. That the meeting was held smoothly under tight security without any major disruptions from anti-globalisation protestors was another triumph for the Korean government, especially in the wake of a series of street protests and demonstrations that targeted and disrupted several international meetings since the Seattle fiasco in November last year.
Topic:: International Relations and Government
Political Geography:: Europe and Asia

3155. European State Formation 1900-2000

Author:: Birthe Hansen
Publication Date:: 03-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: This paper focuses on twentieth century European state formation. The purpose is to present a survey of these, to point at significant patterns, and to offer an explanation of why the states were formed.
Topic:: Security, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Europe

3156. A Financial Architecture for Middle-Class-Oriented Development

Author:: Walter Russell Mead and Sherle R. Schwenninger
Publication Date:: 10-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: The Case For Middle-Class-Oriented Development International financial architecture works best when it serves social goals that command widespread support and legitimacy. Without neglecting the more conventional goal of allowing the greatest possible global flow of capital with the least risk of financial crisis, the primary goal of international financial reform, for both economic and political reasons, ought to be to promote middle-class-oriented development around the world.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

3157. Cultural Contradictions of Post-Communism: Why Liberal Reforms Did Not Succeed in Russia

Author:: Nina Khrushcheva
Publication Date:: 05-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: One goal of Russia's economic reforms during the last ten years has been to establish a new class of businessmen and owners of private property—people who could form the foundation for a new model post-Soviet citizen. However, the experience of this post-communist economic “revolution” has turned out to be very different from the original expectations. For as people became disillusioned with communism due to its broken promises, the words “democracy” and “reform” quickly became equally as unbearable to large sectors of the Russian public after 1991. Such disillusion was achieved in less than ten years—a record revolutionary burnout that would be the envy of any anti-Bolshevik.
Topic:: Communism, Democratization, Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Asia, and Soviet Union

3158. The Changing Nature and Determinants of EU Trade Policies

Author:: Paul Brenton
Publication Date:: 10-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: EU trade policies and the environment in which they are determined are now considerably different from when the EU came into being in the 1950s. With the exceptions of agriculture and textiles and clothing, tariffs and quantitative restrictions on trade in goods have been reduced to historically very low levels. But trade policy is now about much more than border restrictions upon trade in goods. Trade in services and the impact of national differences in regulatory regimes are now firmly on the trade policy agenda. This paper describes the current multilateral and preferential trade policies of the EU. It highlights the increasing importance of regulatory issues and the fact that some of these are being addressed outside of both multilateral and standard bilateral free trade agreements. This reflects the mixed motives behind EU trade policies and that for trade with certain regions the typical political economy factors framing trade policy are no longer relevant. For example, liberalisation of transatlantic trade, in the limited form at present of mutual recognition of conformity assessment, is being strongly driven by large corporate business. This trend suggests that the pyramid of preferences usually used to depict EU trade policies is becoming very distorted.
Topic:: Economics, Government, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Migration, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: Europe

3159. One Size Must Fit All: National Divergences in a Monetary Union

Author:: Daniel Gros and Carsten Hefeker
Publication Date:: 07-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: What policy objective should a common central bank in a heterogeneous monetary union pursue? Should it base its decisions on the EU-wide average of inflation and growth or should it instead focus on (appropriately weighted) national welfare losses based on national rates of inflation and growth? We find that a central bank that minimises the sum of national welfare losses reacts less to common shocks and that this can lead to higher average union-wide expected welfare, if the variability of common shocks is large relative to the inflation bias. But for countries with a transmission mechanism close to the average, welfare can actually be lower in this case. The inflationary bias depends on the interaction between the transmission mechanism and distortions in labour markets.
Topic:: Economics, Government, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Migration, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: Europe

3160. The International Trade of Multinational Firms: The Empirical Behaviour of Intrafirm Trade in a Gravity Equation Model

Author:: Kimberly A. Clausing
Publication Date:: 06-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Multinational firms are an increasingly important part of international economic integration. In recent years, foreign direct investment has been increasing at a rate that exceeds both the rate of growth of international trade and that of income. For many countries, the sales of affiliates of multinational firms have long dwarfed the value of trade. For example, in 1997, European Union country firms exported $283 billion in products to the United States. In the same year, affiliates of E.U.-based multinational firms sold $816 billion worth of products in the United States, almost three times the value of exports.
Topic:: Economics, Government, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Migration, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

3161. Technical Barriers to Trade in the European Union: Importance for Accession Countries

Author:: Paul Brenton, John Sheehy, and Marc Vancauteren
Publication Date:: 04-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: With trade in industrial products between the EU and the CEECs now essentially free of tariff and non-tariff restrictions, the principal impact of accession to the EU on trade flows will be through access to the Single Market of the EU. A key element of this will be the removal of technical barriers to trade. In this paper we try and highlight the importance of technical barriers to trade between the EU and the various CEECs, distinguishing sectors according to the different approaches to the removal of these barriers in the EU: mutual recognition, detailed harmonisation (old approach) and minimum requirements (new approach). We utilise two sources of information on technical regulations: a sectoral classification from a previous study of the impact of the Single Market and our own detailed translation of EU product related directives into the relevant tariff codes. The analysis suggests that the importance of technical barriers varies considerably across the CEECs. The adjustment implications of access to the Single Market are likely to be greatest for those most advanced in their accession negotiations.
Topic:: Economics, Government, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Migration, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: Europe

3162. Goodbye, Agenda 2000, Hello Agenda 2003: Effects of the Berlin Summit on Own Resources, Expenditures, and EU Net Balances

Author:: Michael Emerson and Jorge Núñez Ferrer
Publication Date:: 02-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: This paper describes the development of the negotiations from the birth of the Agenda 2000 proposals to the end of the Berlin European Council Summit and discusses the consequences of the outcome. The study shows to what extent net contributions to the EU budget and narrow national interests dominated the negotiations, at the expense of the original aims of the reforms (to prepare the Union for enlargement and for the next round of WTO negotiations), which were practically forgotten. This type of behaviour is by no means unique. On the contrary, it has been recurrent in the history of the EU. Estimates of future expenditures and own resources show that the Berlin European Council conclusions will prove to be far from satisfactory.
Topic:: Economics, Government, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Migration, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: Europe and Berlin

3163. Montenegro: Which Way Next?

Publication Date:: 11-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The removal of Slobodan Milošević's regime, with its poisonous influence on the entire Balkan region, raises hopes that a host of inter-connected problems may now stand a significantly better chance of being resolved, including the future status of Kosovo and of Montenegro, both notionally still a part of the Yugoslav federation.
Topic:: Security, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Balkans, and Montenegro

3164. Yugoslavia's Presidential Elections: The Serbian People's Moment of Truth

Publication Date:: 09-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Since the International Crisis Group's (ICG's) last paper addressing the Serbian political scene, the situation on the ground inside Serbia has changed dramatically. Once Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic announced, on 27 July 2000, the 24 September date for simultaneous presidential and parliamentary elections in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) and municipal elections in Serbia, the previously fractious opposition rapidly and unexpectedly united behind the nomination of Vojislav Kostunica, a constitutional lawyer and self-styled democratic nationalist with no ties to the regime or the West.
Topic:: Government, Nationalism, and Politics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, and Serbia

3165. Current Legal Status of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) and of Serbia and Montenegro

Publication Date:: 09-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The deteriorating relationship between Montenegro and Belgrade has raised the question of whether the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, with its two constituent republics of Serbia and Montenegro, in fact continues to exist. The answer to this question has immediate relevance to the forthcoming federal elections scheduled for 24 September 2000, and in particular the issues of: whether the government of Montenegro can legitimately boycott those elections, in the sense of refusing to co-operate in their physical conduct and encouraging Montenegrins not to vote; and whether the federal government is entitled to take any, and if so what, action in response to the Montenegrin government so deciding. This legal briefing paper seeks, in this context, to address the following questions: What precedents were set by the decisions of the European Community (EC) Arbitration Commission concerning the status of the former Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (SFRY) and its Republics that might be relevant to an assessment of the current legal status of the FRY? What actions have been taken by the FRY federal government, the Republic of Montenegro, the Republic of Serbia, or the international community that may affect the status of the FRY and the legitimacy of its government and federal institutions? What is the current status of the FRY, its government and federal institutions, and how does this affect Montenegro's obligation to participate in the 24 September 2000 federal elections?
Topic:: Government, Nationalism, and Politics
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, Serbia, and Montenegro

3166. Macedonian Government Expects Setback in Local Elections

Publication Date:: 09-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The Macedonian electorate will drag itself wearily to the polls on 10 September 2000. This year's local elections follow the 1999 presidential election, 1998 parliamentary elections, and 1996 local elections. The chronic campaign cycle, seemingly endless political sloganeering, and constant criticism from international observers have created fatigue among the electorate. As in 1996, the local elections will have hardly anything to do with running municipal governments, and everything to do with validating the current national government. Early polls indicate most voters will use the opportunity to voice their frustration against the ruling coalition.
Topic:: Government, Nationalism, and Politics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Macedonia

3167. Kosovo Report Card

Publication Date:: 08-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Over its first 15 months the international mission in Kosovo has a number of accomplishments to its credit. These include negotiating an agreement with the Kosovo Liberation army (KLA) to disband and to publicly commit to hand over its weapons - although few believe the KLA's disarmament has been complete; heading off, in the early months after the war, an incipient conflict between backers of the KLA and the other major political force in Kosovo, Ibrahim Rugova's Democratic League of Kosovo(LDK); creating the framework of an administrative structure for Kosovo, and mobilising humanitarian assistance that helped feed and get more than one million Kosovo refugees into homes or temporary shelters before the first post-war winter.
Topic:: Government, Politics, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

3168. Albania's Local Elections: A Test of Stability and Democracy

Publication Date:: 08-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Local elections in Albania on 1 October 2000 will mark the first test of popular support for the ruling Socialist-led coalition since it came to power following the violent uprising in 1997. The Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), whose Office of Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) will be leading the monitoring effort, deems these elections to be of critical importance. Albania's electoral process has traditionally been bedevilled by the same handicaps encountered in most other institutional areas: namely, inadequate legislation, capacity deficiencies, politicisation of the process, and lack of all round political support. It is vitally important for Albania's democracy and international reputation that this year's elections do not repeat the mistakes of the recent past.
Topic:: Security, Government, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Albania

3169. Serbia: The Milosevic Regime on the Eve of September Elections

Publication Date:: 08-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The regime in Serbia has recovered its footing after the 1999 war with NATO and remains as hard-line as ever. Learning and gaining experience over the years has enabled the regime to “improve” its performance and become more efficient. Most analysts in Serbia agree that Milosevic will be able to stay in power indefinitely.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Government, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Serbia

3170. Montenegro's Local Elections: Testing the National Temperature (Background Briefing)

Publication Date:: 05-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Local elections are to be held in Podgorica and Herceg-Novi, two of Montenegro's 21 municipalities, on 11 June 2000. Their significance is wider than the simple question of who governs the two local authorities, for these will be the first elections in Montenegro since the victory of the "For a Better Life" coalition (DZB) under president Milo Djukanovic in general elections in May 1998. For this reason the results will be widely interpreted as a comment on the performance of Djukanovic so far, and a barometer of the political mood in the republic as a whole.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Montenegro

3171. Bosnia's Municipal Elections 2000: Winners and Losers

Publication Date:: 04-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The international community can draw a degree of comfort from the results of Bosnia's 8 April 2000 municipal elections. Overall, the voting was free of violence and more freeand fair than any previous election held in Bosnia. Nationalism may not be on the run yet—witness the strength of indicted Bosnian Serb war criminal Radovan Karadzic's Serbian Democratic Party (SDS)—but moderate leaders are making inroads and increasing numbers of voters seem to be paying attention to their messages.
Topic:: Government, Nationalism, and Politics
Political Geography:: Bosnia, Eastern Europe, and Serbia

3172. What Happened to the KLA?

Publication Date:: 03-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The end of the war over Kosovo brought the transformation of the guerrilla army that started it. The Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA - or UÇK in the Albanian acronym) has been formally demilitarised, but in various manifestations it remains a powerful and active element in almost every area of Kosovo life. Some welcome its continued influence; others fear it; many are concerned about it.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Albania

3173. Electronic Commerce in Developing Countries: Issues for Domestic Policy and WTO Negotiations

Author:: Catherine L. Mann
Publication Date:: 03-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: Electronic commerce and its related activities over the internet can be the engines that improve domestic economic well-being through liberalization of domestic services, more rapid integration into globalization of production, and leap-frogging of available technology. Since electronic commerce integrates the domestic and global markets from its very inception, negotiating on trade issues related to electronic commerce will, even more than trade negotiations have in the past, demand self-inspection of key domestic policies, particularly in telecommunications, financial services, and distribution and delivery. Because these sectors are fundamental to the workings of a modern economy, liberalization here will rebound to greater economic well-being than comparable liberalization in more narrowly focussed sectors. Thus, the desire to be part of the e-commerce wave can be a powerful force to erode domestic vested interests that have slowed the liberalization of these sectors.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy

3174. International Economic Agreements and the Constitution

Author:: Richard M. Goodman and John M. Frost
Publication Date:: 02-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: International agreements, such as the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), generally aim to facilitate the free flow of goods and services among nations. The U.S. Supreme Court has developed a jurisprudence similarly aiming to facilitate the free flow of goods and services among the several states. That jurisprudence has developed from litigation challenging the constitutionality of state actions on the basis of the Commerce and Supremacy Clauses of the Constitution (art. I, § 8, cl. 3, and art. VI, cl. 2). In some subject areas, Commerce Clause decisions closely align with international agreements. In other areas, either or both fall short of achieving economic integration.
Topic:: Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States and North America

3175. Creating Stability: National Preferences and the Origins of European Monetary System

Author:: Mark Aspinwall
Publication Date:: 12-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:: This essay compares the preferences of France, Italy, and Britain on the creation of the European Monetary System in 1978-1979, especially the Exchange Rate Mechanism, which stabilised nominal exchange rates. My claim is that the different conclusions reached by the governments (France and Italy in, Britain out) cannot be explained by economic circumstances or by interests, and I elaborate an intervening institutional variable which helps explain preferences. Deducing from spatial theory that where decisionmakers 'sit' on the left-right spectrum matters to their position on the EMS, I argue that domestic constitutional power-sharing mechanisms privilege certain actors over others in a predictable and consistent way. Where centrists were in power, the government's decision was to join. Where left or right extremists were privileged, the government's decision was negative. The article measures the centrism of the governments in place at the time, and also reviews the positions taken by the national political parties in and out of government. It is intended to contribute to the growing comparativist literature on the European Union, and to the burgeoning literature on EU-member-state relations.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: Britain, Iraq, Europe, and France

3176. East-West Integration and the Changing German Production Regime: A Firm-Centered Approach

Author:: Katharina Bluhm
Publication Date:: 12-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:: With the opening of Central Eastern Europe German firms have gained access to low labor costs in close geographical proximity. Intense debate about the impact this has had on the “German model” of capitalism has ensued. This paper argues that, in fact, production shifts are taking place in which cost-cutting motives are an important guideline. German firms, however, hesitate to aggressively utilize this new option in their internal domestic labor policy. Rather, firms tend to avoid confrontations with their employees on “job exports”. The necessity of collaboration on both sides of the border, the relative strength of workers in the domestic high-quality production system, and the constraints of industrial relations provide explanations for the moderate behavior. So far, the outcome of the bargained reorganization is that firms gain more labor flexibility, performance-related differentiation, and labor-cost rationalization without challenging the institutionalized long-term employment commitments for their core workforce.
Topic:: Economics and Government
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Germany

3177. “Social Democracy, Globalization and Governance: Why is there no European Left Program in the EU?”

Author:: Christopher S. Allen
Publication Date:: 09-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:: This paper addresses globalization and governance in the EU by attempting to generate some plausible hypotheses that might explain the policy choices of the 12 out of 15 European democratic left governments. With all of the discussion in recent years of a democratic deficit, and then need to maintain a “social Europe,” why have these governments not produced more explicit left-wing policies?
Topic:: Democratization, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

3178. The Legal Construction of Membership: Nationality Law in Germany and the United States

Author:: Mathias Bös
Publication Date:: 01-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:: The argument of this paper is that several empirical puzzles in the citizenship literature are rooted in the failure to distinguish between the mainly legal concept of nationality and the broader, political concept of citizenship. Using this distinction, the paper analysis the evolution of German and American nationality laws over the last 200 years. The historical development of both legal structures shows strong communalities. With the emergence of the modern system of nation states, the attribution of nationality to newborn children is ascribed either via the principle of descent or place of birth. With regard to the naturalization of adults, there is an increasing ethnization of law, which means that the increasing complexities of naturalization criteria are more and more structured along ethnic ideas. Although every nation building process shows some elements of ethnic self-description, it is difficult to use the legal principles of ius sanguinis and ius soli as indicators of ethnic or non-ethnic modes of community building.
Topic:: Government and Nationalism
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, and Germany

3179. The Diffusion of the Internet in China

Author:: William Foster and Seymour E. Goodman
Publication Date:: 11-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:: China and the United States share a new and rapidly expanding border—the Internet. It is a border that neither country fully understands. The possibility for misunderstanding is great because the Internet is not only transforming the relationship between the two countries, it is also transforming the countries themselves. It could be argued that China is going through the greater change. Unlike the past where information was mediated by the State, the mass media, and the work unit, Chinese citizens with Internet connections and a command of English have unprecedented direct and immediate access to information and people around the world. Because of abundance of Chinese language content, Chinese who can only read Chinese still have access to a wealth of information. The Chinese government has imposed its own unique regime on the networks in China that connect to the Internet. Though the United States and China both participate in the Internet, the regimes that they use to govern their networks are very different.
Topic:: Government and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Asia

3180. Drug Trafficking in US-Mexican Relations: The Politics of Simulation

Author:: Jorge Chabat
Publication Date:: 01-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:: This document presents the hypothesis that the Mexican and U.S. governments are trapped in their current anti-drug strategy. This strategy causes high levels of violence and corruption in Mexican territory, and cannot be changed because it responds to pressures exerted by American public opinion on its own government. One of the consequences is that the U.S. government is compelled annually to certify the Mexican government's fight against drugs. This certification constrains an accurate evaluation of Mexico's combat against narcotrafficking, because it tends to underestimate failures and exaggerate accomplishments. Nevertheless, the possibility of change in the anti-drug strategy is limited, so this scenario is expected to endure for several years. In this sense on can also expect a better integration f Mexican and U.S. anti-drug policies in the near and medium term.
Topic:: International Relations, Crime, and Government
Political Geography:: United States, America, North America, and Mexico

3181. A Theoretical and Statistical Assessment of the Structural Reform in Latin America

Author:: Jorge A. Schiavon
Publication Date:: 01-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:: This working paper argues that the institutional variation between Latin American countries is one of the central variables that explains the huge differences in the implementation, and level of consolidation of the structural reform process in Latin America during the 1980s and 1990s, an issue still unexplained in a satisfactory way in the existing literature. The argument is tested and supported using a statistical model that includes macroeconomic indicators in the explained side of the equation (structural reform), and constitutional, electoral, and party system data on the explanatory side (institutional configuration).
Topic:: Development and Government
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, and Central America

3182. The Globalization of Property Rights: An Anglo and American Frontier Land Paradigm, 1700-1900

Author:: John Weaver
Publication Date:: 02-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute on Globalization and the Human Condition, McMaster University
Abstract:: Old-world ideas accompanied European migrants, and a few changed the globe. An English obsession with landed property was implanted in settlement colonies, so that, between the late 1600s and late 1800s, private initiatives and official planning on British colonial and American frontiers interacted to frame property rights to extensive regions. This paper dwells on that interaction and the tensions between private goals and state sovereignty. The state was essential for framing property rights when these were associated with land and in situ resources. In very recent times, property rights have fostered entirely new industries, for example in software and genetically modified biota. Property rights have changed traditional activities such as art and entertainment. Do new forms of property - "less constrained by physical location" - leave the state with a reduced role in the realm of property rights? Does the paradigm of evolving property rights seen in previous centuries suggest any parallels with struggles over more recent property rights? These are questions for members of the institute to consider. We will offer several concluding thoughts.
Topic:: Globalization, Government, and Political Theory
Political Geography:: America and Europe

3183. The New Slovak Language Law: Internal or External Politics?

Author:: Farimah Daftary and Kinga Gál
Publication Date:: 09-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
Abstract:: In Central and Eastern Europe, where language is the central defining element of the ethnic group, language policy becomes the cornerstone of constructing the identity of new states. In the multiethnic state or plural democratic state, policies aimed at promoting the language of the titular nation become the primary means of validating the moral worth of one ethnic group over the others. The example of independent Slovakia illustrates the political importance of language in Central and Eastern Europe and the virulence of the conflicts which arise between majorities and minorities over language issues. The continuous disputes between the Slovak leadership and the Hungarian minority over minority issues in general, and language-related issues specifically, have shown how sensitive language demands are during the early phases of state-building. In Slovakia, where the emphasis was on the ethnic rather than the civic dimension of nationhood, language policy served a twofold purpose: by giving the Slovak language a dominant position in the state, it sought to foster Slovak ethnic identity as the identity of the Slovak nation-state; and it was at the same time a method for promoting the assimilation of non-ethnic Slovak citizens. In reality, anti-minority policies in Slovakia (or policies perceived as such) fell within a broader set of anti-opposition policies as the State attempted to extend control and establish moral monopoly over not only language but also the fields of culture, education, economy, etc.
Topic:: Development, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Slovakia

3184. The Pugwash Newsletter: Missile Defense: At Sea?

Author:: Jeffrey Boutwell and George Rathjens
Publication Date:: 12-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
Abstract:: As we went to press, the election of a new US President was still undecided. More than a week after 100 million Americans went to the polls, the ultimate margin of victory for either George W. Bush or Al Gore appeared to hinge on several hundred Florida votes. Whoever does take office on January 20, the next American President (and Commander in Chief), the man with ultimate authority over the world' s largest nuclear arsenal, will begin his term in office in the most politically tenuous position of any American president in perhaps a century.
Topic:: Government, Nuclear Weapons, Peace Studies, and War
Political Geography:: America

3185. In Focus: Peru: Democracy

Author:: Coletta A. Youngers
Publication Date:: 10-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:: Since taking office in 1990, President Fujimori has concentrated power in his own hands, greatly strengthened the role of the armed forces and SIN, and thwarted political opposition through bribery and intimidation. The recent Peruvian elections failed to meet even the most minimal international standards for a free and fair process, and Fujimori embarked upon an unconstitutional third term, which left the country deeply polarized. Fujimori's decision to call for new elections and dismantle SIN is an important step toward putting Peru back on the path to democratization; however, the situation remains very tense and the position of the military and intelligence services uncertain.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Government
Political Geography:: United States, South America, Latin America, and Peru

3186. The Impact of an Indigenous Counterpublic Sphere on the Practice of Democracy: The Taller de Historia Oral Andina in Bolivia

Author:: Marcia Stephenson
Publication Date:: 09-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: This paper analyzes the impact of an indigenous counterpublic sphere in contemporary Bolivia. It argues that the elaboration of the indigenous counterpublic sphere as an arena of oppositional consciousness locates agency in indigenous peoples and challenges prevailing practices that would relegate them to the category of premodern Other. Examining specifically the work carried out by the Aymara nongovernmental organization known as the Taller de Historia Oral Andina [Andean Oral History Workshop], the essay underscores the significance of the indigenous counterpublic sphere in Bolivia not only as a discursive arena but also as an autonomous spatial or territorial arena where Andean cultural and political identities can be enacted and legitimated.
Topic:: Civil Society and Government
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, and Bolivia

3187. The Impact of Election Administration on the Legitimacy of Emerging Democracies: A New Research Agenda

Author:: Jørgen Elklit and Andrew Reynolds
Publication Date:: 09-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: In this paper we attempt to push the development of a new subfield of research in the field of democratization and institutional design, which is the relationship between the institutionalization of electoral politics (and in particular the administration of elections) and the emergence of democracy in the developing world. This new avenue of research represents an important advance in the study of causal relationships, which so far has either been completely neglected in the democratization canon or has only been given dramatically insufficient attention.
Topic:: Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: South Africa, Mozambique, Tanzania, Sierra Leone, Zambia, Ghana, and Botswana

3188. Key Factors of Structural Change in North Rhine-Westphalia

Author:: Claudio Maggi
Publication Date:: 06-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:: Recent years have seen the re-emergence of industrial policies and policies for the promotion of economic activity in both industrialised and developing countries, flanked by regional and national strategies for enhanced integration into increasingly globalised international markets, improved competitiveness and sustainably dynamic economic growth. The growing popularity of these policies is also a reflection of recent currents in international economic debate, notably the argument that the recipes for stability staunchly championed by neo-liberals, which gave rise to the Washington Consensus in the early eighties, need to be complemented by more committed policies designed to strengthen international competitiveness.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Globalization, Government, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:: Europe, Washington, and Westphalia

3189. Challenges for a New Administration

Author:: Aleksandar D. Jovovic
Publication Date:: 09-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Abstract:: The Institute for the Study of Diplomacy hosted the fall 2000 meetings of the Schlesinger Working Group on the topic of possible foreign policy strategic surprises facing the incoming Administration. To provide a starting point for the discussion, working group members identified more than a dozen scenarios that could: Take a new administration by surprise (an event not covered in the transition briefing books). Present a considerable challenge to the President. Pose a significant discontinuity or shift in the current trend line.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Government
Political Geography:: United States

3190. Colombia at the Crossroads

Author:: Aleksandar D. Jovovic
Publication Date:: 03-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Abstract:: The Institute for the Study of Diplomacy hosted the spring session of the Schlesinger Working Group on the topic of strategic surprise in Colombia. After a presentation on four potential scenarios that may face Colombia (see next page), Schlesinger Working Group core members and Colombia specialists examined the key factors driving events in this conflict-scarred country, as well as possible outcomes for current political initiatives. Among other issues, the participants touched on the range and dynamics of the present conflict, its effects on Colombian institutions, the country's neighbors, as well as on the role of powerful outside players, primarily the United States. Upon defining these key factors, participants identified a broad outline for future policy towards Colombia, which would safeguard key U.S. interests, defined as an end to the conflict, political and economic stability in the region, and the suppression of the drug trade. The following report is based on the informal and general findings of the group and is therefore not a consensus document.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, and Government
Political Geography:: United States, Colombia, South America, and Latin America

3191. ARPA Does Windows: The Defense Underpinning of the PC Revolution

Author:: Glenn Fong
Publication Date:: 03-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Studies Association
Abstract:: Personal computer (PC) technologies that have revolutionized our everyday lives whether at the office or at home have been deeply rooted in public sector initiatives as well. As communities throughout the country, and countries around the world rush to clone their own Silicon Valleys, the governmental underpinnings of the original Valley's success should not be overlooked.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Government, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States

3192. Globalization: A Third Way Gospel that Travels World Wide

Author:: Martin Marcussen
Publication Date:: 03-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Studies Association
Abstract:: By the end of the 90s, social democratic leaders world-wide have being referring to unspecified processes of globalization when undertaking unpopular domestic reforms of organizational structures and policies. Globalization is overall considered to be an irreversible process to which national politicians will have to adapt in order to avoid future crises. Thus, we can talk about a structural-determinist discourse, or a discourse which is traditionally applied in neo-liberal circles stating that there is no alternative'.
Topic:: Globalization, Government, International Organization, and International Political Economy

3193. Understanding Representation: Implications for Legislative Strengthening

Publication Date:: 11-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:: The Second International Conference on Legislative Strengthening took place in Wintergreen, Virginia from June 5-8, 2000. Some 165 people participated in the conference. USAID democracy officers, implementing partners, and host-country legislators and staff each accounted for about a quarter of those attending, with the remaining quarter consisting of representatives from other international donors, academics, and other interested parties. The participants hailed from some 30 nations, including many from Africa. Approximately 65 speakers, panelists, and moderators participated in the conference sessions. The conference agenda is included as an appendix of this report.
Topic:: Civil Society, Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Africa

3194. Creating a Global Economy

Author:: Joan E. Spero
Publication Date:: 04-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Clarke Forum for Contemporary Issues
Abstract:: Headlines in recent weeks have been filled with news of earthquakes. From Turkey to Taiwan, tectonic plates have been shifting leaving toppled buildings, trapped victims, and homeless survivors in their wake. In the last decade of the twentieth century, other less visible but equally powerful seismic shifts have also taken place. The tectonic plates of the world's political, security and economic systems have shifted dramatically. The end of the Cold War, the creation of a global, capitalist economy, and the emergence of the United States as the world's only superpower—these and other seismic shifts have toppled the dangerous but stable bipolar international system that had endured for nearly fifty years. Power structures, relations among states, international institutions, and international norms have changed in fundamental ways.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

3195. Russia's Physical and Social Infrastructure: Implications for Future Development

Publication Date:: 12-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: During the past two years, the National Intelligence Council and the Bureau of Intelligence and Research of the US Department of State sponsored a working group and four seminars with experts from outside the Intelligence Community to examine the impact of societal and infrastructural factors on Russia's future over the next two decades. The factors identified--demography, health, intellectual capital, and physical infrastructure--all pose great challenges to Russia. The purpose of the project was to begin to think through in systematic fashion the difficulties and opportunities confronting Russia's leadership in these four specific areas.
Topic:: Demographics, Development, and Government
Political Geography:: Russia and United States

3196. Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future With Nongovernment Experts

Publication Date:: 12-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: Over the past 15 months, the National Intelligence Council (NIC), in close collaboration with US Government specialists and a wide range of experts outside the government, has worked to identify major drivers and trends that will shape the world of 2015. The key drivers identified are: Demographics, Natural resources and environment, Science and technology, The global economy and globalization, National and international governance, Future conflict, The role of the United States. In examining these drivers, several points should be kept in mind: No single driver or trend will dominate the global future in 2015 Each driver will have varying impacts in different regions and countries The drivers are not necessarily mutually reinforcing; in some cases, they will work at cross-purposes. Taken together, these drivers and trends intersect to create an integrated picture of the world of 2015, about which we can make projections with varying degrees of confidence and identify some troubling uncertainties of strategic importance to the United States.
Topic:: Economics, Environment, Government, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States

3197. Central Asia and the South Caucasus: Reorientations, Internal Transitions, and Strategic Dynamics

Publication Date:: 12-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: In April 2000, the National Intelligence Council sponsored a conference that examined the strategic dynamics of the Central Asian countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, and the South Caucasus countries of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. The conference brought together approximately 100 government and outside experts, including officials and scholars from the countries concerned. It consisted of six panels with presentations from more than 30 academic and regional experts, followed by question-and-answer sessions. The purpose of the conference was not to arrive at a consensus but to deepen understanding of the region.
Topic:: Development and Government
Political Geography:: Central Asia, Eastern Europe, and Georgia

3198. Governance, Urban Environment, and the Growing Role of Civil Society

Author:: María Elena Ducci
Publication Date:: 03-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Wilson Center
Abstract:: In urban areas in developing countries, the current experience indicates that well organized and well-informed citizens have become the best motors for positive change within cities and it is the state that has fallen out of touch, in spite of constant declarations about the importance of citizens' participation. María Elena Ducci explains how in Latin America, the urban social movements that focused on the fight for land and housing from the sixties to the eighties today have become citizens' groups seeking to maintain and improve quality of life. Once again, territory has become the focus for city inhabitants who are discovering new ways of being social and becoming the political protagonists of their own lives in the city. According to Ducci, the dynamic of urban politics is changing as these new players—the citizens' groups that are defending their urban environment—come to the fore with enormous strength and energy. They oppose and block public and private urban projects of enormous scope, which raises costs and lengthens time frames for the companies involved. This paper focuses on how these groups, which demand a better quality of life and more equality, are working in an increasingly globalized and polarized city.
Topic:: Civil Society, Economics, Environment, Government, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:: South America and Latin America

3199. U.S. Government Statistics: R Expenditures as a Percent of GDP

Publication Date:: 01-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: U.S. Economic Statistics Briefing Room
Abstract:: The Division of Science Resources Studies (SRS) of the National Science Foundation publishes the biennial report, National Patterns of R Resources. This report describes and analyzes current patterns of research and development (R) in the United States, in relation to the historical record and the reported R levels of other industrialized countries. For years in which the full report is not produced, current, annual statistics on national and international R trends are released in data updates like this one.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States

3200. "One China" and Relations Across the Taiwan Strait

Author:: James J. Przystup, Ronald N. Montaperto, and Gerald W. Faber
Publication Date:: 09-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: Relations across the Taiwan Strait have reached an apparent impasse. Both China and Taiwan have, in a sense, painted themselves into corners. Yet, aware of the considerable costs that will inevitably be incurred by new and higher levels of tension or conflict, both President Jiang Zemin of China and Chen Shui-bian, the newly elected President of Taiwan, share a vital interest in finding a face-saving way out of their respective dilemmas without compromising their longer term objectives. In the process, each is being influenced and constrained by a number of factors related to politics, economics, and broad strategic interests. Overall, these factors will provide incentives to seek a reduction of tensions, at least in the short term. At the same time, years of mutual mistrust and the stark and growing differences between their respective political and social cultures will continue to affect the prospects for a mutually acceptable resolution of the issues separating China and Taiwan.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, and Government
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Taiwan

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS