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1. Dangerous Delay 2: The cost of inaction

Author:
Emily Farr, Leah Finnegan, Joanna Grace, and Mathew Truscott
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
In 2011, Somalia experienced a devastating famine that killed over a quarter of a million people. Afterwards, leaders in the region made a commitment to end drought emergencies by 2022. The international community sought to ensure that there would be no repeat of the failures that led to famine. Next time, the world would heed the warnings and act early to avoid the crisis. But despite various warnings and alarms over the past two years, the commitment to anticipatory action has proven half-hearted. We are once again responding too late and with too little to avert the crisis. In this follow-up to their 2012 briefing A Dangerous Delay, Oxfam and Save the Children, supported by the Jameel Observatory, examine what has changed and what has not in the humanitarian system since 2011. They explain how it must evolve in order to enable and fully fund anticipatory action. With the climate crisis set to deepen, the current system must change quickly in order to meet the challenges we face in the years ahead.
Topic:
Security, Famine, Governance, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

2. Seeing in the Dark: Real-Time Monitoring in Humanitarian Crises

Author:
Daniel Maxwell, Erin Lentz, Kamau Wanjohi, Daniel Molla, Matthew Day, Peter Hailey, Christopher Newton, and Anna Colom
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:
Humanitarian information systems typically provide analysis to predict crisis, assess needs, direct program resources, and assess short- to medium-term effects of programs. But much of this information is “chunky”—a single estimate of “needs,” for example, can be expected to direct resources and programming for up to a full year (IASC 2020). A single early warning scenario might be expected to provide information about potential hazards and the exposure of population to the ill-effects of that hazard for three to four months. And almost by definition, early warning analyses are grounded in known and likely hazards, “population in need” (PIN) figures are based on the impacts of known shocks, and program resources are (or should be) allocated on the basis of known and projected PIN figures. There have long been questions about the timeliness of humanitarian information and especially about the extent to which information initiates appropriate and timely actions (Buchanan-Smith and Davies 1995; Bailey 2012; Lentz et al. 2020). And there have always been concerns that circumstances can change in shorter time periods than standard humanitarian analysis procedures can pick up, so interest in real-time monitoring (RTM) as a component of humanitarian information systems has increased for at least the past decade or so (FSNAU 2015).
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Humanitarian Aid, Famine, Food Security, Humanitarian Intervention, Conflict, and Nutrition
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, Somalia, Malawi, South Sudan, and Africa

3. Need, Aid, and Root Causes: The Appropriateness of Humanitarian Response in the DPRK

Author:
Nazanin Zadeh-Cummings
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Humanitarian aid carries connotations of emergency, urgent response, and acute threats to human morbidity, mortality, and dignity. Despite the end of the famine emergency since the mid-1990s, however, the DPRK has continued to receive international humanitarian aid. This article argues that while concepts of development and humanitarianism highlight the challenges to bringing structural change in the DPRK, the long-term nature of need in the DPRK does not signal an inappropriate match with humanitarian aid. In a sanctioned and highly politicised environment with questions of denuclearisation and human rights abuses, seeking to improve daily lives is an inherently structural act. Without structural changes, acute needs have and likely will continue even in times of non-emergency.
Topic:
Development, Humanitarian Aid, Famine, Human Security, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Asia and North Korea

4. Towards Anticipatory Information Systems and Action: Notes on Early Warning and Early Action in East Africa

Author:
Daniel Maxwell and Peter Hailey
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:
Despite humanitarian information being more available than ever, confusion persists as to what the information means, how to analyze it and turn it into actionable evidence, and how to ensure that evidence-based actions are actually undertaken on a timely basis. The key points of confusion and issues include: The difference between current status information, projections of populations in need, and early warning of threats or hazards. The difference between “hard” numbers (implying things that have already happened and can be counted) versus probabilistic information (implying things that are likely, but not certain, to happen). Linkages, or the lack thereof, between information systems and policy or programmatic action to anticipate, mitigate, or respond to a shock or worsening situation. Despite the fact that conflict is the most common factor driving extreme humanitarian crises, conflict analysis is the weakest part of early warning and information systems. The information systems do not (or minimally) engage with the communities at risk of shocks or resulting humanitarian crises. This paper reviews these and a number of additional issues with contemporary humanitarian information and early warning systems. While the cases focus on the East Africa region, they have broader implications as well.
Topic:
Disaster Relief, Humanitarian Aid, Food, Famine, Food Security, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Uganda, Kenya, North Africa, Ethiopia, Somalia, and South Sudan

5. Famine Early Warning and Information Systems in Conflict Settings: Challenges for Humanitarian Metrics and Response

Author:
Daniel Maxwell
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:
Attention to the growing number of people caught in crises characterized by extreme and often protracted levels of food insecurity, malnutrition, and mortality is increasing. The information systems that track these conditions and inform humanitarian decision-making have expanded substantially in the past two decades and in many cases have reached a degree of unprecedented sophistication. These famine early warning systems have become increasingly sophisticated in the past decade, but they still tend to be based on several assumptions that are important to understand. This paper briefly describes existing famine early warning systems and outlines some of the assumptions on which they are based— both in theory and in practice. Then it gives four brief case studies of recent famine or “famine-like” events and pieces together the formal analysis process with an attempt to reconstruct events on the ground from a conflict analysis perspective—highlighting the extent to which the formal famine analysis did or did not deal with conflict analyses and the political kryptonite around the discussion of “intent.” It closes with a summary of gaps in the current system and an assessment of the risks of trying to address those gaps through famine EWS or alternative means.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Humanitarian Aid, Food, Famine, Food Security, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Kenya, Middle East, Yemen, North Africa, and Ethiopia

6. Highlights on the resilience and vulnerability of populations affected by conflict

Author:
Helen Young, Elizabeth Stites, and Anastasia Marshak
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:
This is the third in a series of three briefing papers that form part of the Mind the Gap: Bridging the Research, Policy, and Practice Divide to Enhance Livelihood Resilience in Conflict Settings project. The first two briefing papers accompany regional case-study reports on Chad, South Sudan and the Sudan, and on Uganda that challenge many long-held assumptions about nutrition and livelihoods in countries struggling to recover from conflict, violence and fragility. FAO reviewed these regional case-studies on resilience and vulnerability at a two-day high-level workshop in Rome in November 2018. This brief summarizes the report highlights on the resilience and vulnerability of populations affected by conflict, including insights from the workshop participants and some implications for policies, programs, and future research.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Food, Famine, Food Security, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, Sudan, North Africa, Chad, and South Sudan

7. Chinese Economy under Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping

Author:
Khalid Manzoor Butt and Sarah Sajid
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Political Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
Economic development aims at building a healthy community which in turn strengthens institutions of a state. Economic Development can also be reflected through soft power, which is not only a diplomatic tool but also a booster for a state's economy. Chinese economic development is a synthesis of two ideologies: attributed to Mao Zedong and the other to Deng Xiaoping. Mao and Deng have contributed to Chinese economic development by initiating compatible economic policies in their respective eras. Their economic policies are influenced by Karl Marx and Adam Smith respectively. Mao, a staunch supporter of centralization of economy, opted for the theory of Marxism; ic level. On the other hand, Deng Xiaoping is associated with liberalizing of Chinese economy. The ideas of free trade and facilitation of foreign investors is the mainstay of Deng’s economic policy. In the process of liberalizing the Chinese economy, Deng initiated a paradigm shift from curtailed to liberal approach; he followed the footsteps of Adam Smith, the pioneer of free market economy. Privatization, establishment of exclusive economic zones, introduction of new flexible economic policies are the reforms introduced by Deng under the theory of free market economy. Hence, the modern China we see today is a product of the economic policies envisioned by these two great Chinese leaders. This descriptive research looks into the contribution and implication of these economic policies on the Chinese economic system.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, History, Famine, Economy, and Mao Zedong
Political Geography:
China and Asia

8. Conflict and Famine in South Sudan

Author:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
While much of East Africa suffers from drought, it is conflict, rather than lack of rain, that has been the cause of famine in South Sudan.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, Famine, Food Security, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, East Africa, South Sudan, and Central Africa

9. Yemen on the Brink of Famine: Forging a pathway to peace. Oxfam Fair Share Analysis April 2017

Author:
Larissa Alles
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The number of people in need as a result of Yemen’s conflict continues to rise, but the international aid response has failed to keep up. International donors should immediately commit to fully funding the Yemen Humanitarian Response Plan. As the tables in this briefing show, some donor governments are pulling their weight, while others are not. Aid alone, however, cannot solve Yemen’s crisis or put the country back on its feet. All sides and their international backers should stop the de-facto blockade and the conflict that are pushing Yemen towards famine.
Topic:
Famine, Food Security, Conflict, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, and Persian Gulf

10. On the Brink: As Famine Looms, World Leaders Must Say Up and Deliver Political Solutions to Save Lives

Author:
Shannon Scribner
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
As famine takes hold in South Sudan and threatens to spread to northeastern Nigeria, Somalia, and Yemen, world leaders must immediately step up to fully fund the United Nations’ appeal for $6.3 billion. Of this amount, $4.9 billion is urgently needed by July for critical assistance, including health, food, nutrition, and water. If lives are to be saved, humanitarian agencies must be able to rapidly scale up and access people in need. World leaders must not walk away from key meetings, such as the Group of Seven Taormina Summit in Italy and the Group of Twenty Hamburg Summit in Germany, without taking action to increase funding, improve access, resolve conflict and insecurity, and ensure that emergency relief is coupled with long-term approaches to building resilience in affected countries.
Topic:
International Cooperation, United Nations, Famine, Food Security, and Leadership
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Yemen, Nigeria, Somalia, and South Sudan

11. From Early Warning to Early Action in Somalia: What can we Learn to Support Early Action to Mitigate Humanitarian Crises?

Author:
Emma Feeny
Publication Date:
10-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
More than three years after it was initiated in the aftermath of the 2011 famine, the early-warning, early-action trigger mechanism for Somalia remains a work in progress. This paper looks at how the mechanism has functioned during the 2016/7 drought crisis response, uncovers a widespread consensus about the value of the tool, and explores the challenges involved in developing the dashboard, generating support and putting in place an accountability framework. It looks for learning around the effectiveness of such tools, which could potentially support similar models in other countries. This paper also highlights suggestions from a range of stakeholders regarding actions that might support greater buy-in to the dashboard and broader collaboration at all levels, helping ensure the mechanism meets its aim of facilitating decision making for early action, thereby better protecting the people of Somalia.
Topic:
Human Rights, Famine, Humanitarian Crisis, and Disaster Management
Political Geography:
Somalia and Africa

12. Turning Water into Wellbeing: How an Irrigation Scheme Changed Lives in a Zimbabwean Dryland

Author:
Solomon Mombeshora and Martin Walsh
Publication Date:
10-2017
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Climate change is putting increasing stress on the livelihoods of people living in the world’s drylands. Smallholder irrigation has long been seen as a means of improving food security in areas with unpredictable rainfall, and is now being promoted as part of climate change adaptation strategies. The Ruti Irrigation Scheme in Zimbabwe was begun by Oxfam in 2009 with these objectives in mind. This report examines the findings of two evaluations of the project and shows that the irrigation scheme has had more significant social and economic impacts than those measured by a quantitative study alone. However, the positive impacts for wellbeing have not been as extensive as originally hoped – having been affected by extreme weather events and the decision to reserve scarce water for use by sugar estates further downstream. This suggests that while smallholder irrigation schemes can provide important local benefits, these are threatened not only by the usual difficulties associated with their implementation, but also by the greater challenges posed by climate change and the resource conflicts that are being exacerbated as a result. These are problems which require significant changes in policy and practice at catchment-wide, national, and international levels.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Water, Famine, Infrastructure, and Food Security
Political Geography:
Africa and Zimbabwe

13. Beneath the Dryland: Kenya Drought Gender Analysis

Author:
Maria Libertad Mella Dometita
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
In the arid and semi-arid land (ASAL) counties of Kenya, people are experiencing a food security and nutrition crisis as a result of the drought that has worsened since August 2016. The drought has undermined coping capacities and exacerbated vulnerabilities, for example by destroying livelihoods and triggering local conflicts over scare resources. This report draws on research conducted in two ASAL counties – Turkana and Wajir – on how people are coping. The main objective of the research was to understand the gendered needs, vulnerabilities and capacities of people in Turkana and Wajir and the specific gendered risks they face, in order to identify opportunities for increasing their agency, voice, participation and economic empowerment. The study also sought to understand the interactions between duty bearers and people affected by the drought, and the capacity of duty bearers to provide humanitarian assistance. The report presents key findings from the research and recommendations on how to strengthen the humanitarian response.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Famine, Governance, Food Security, and Displacement
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

14. Climate Change and Human Rights: The Case of the Ethiopian Famine

Author:
Melissa Rary
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on Human Rights Education, University of Denver
Abstract:
With effects of climate change becoming more prominent, it is important to examine what climate change will mean in terms of human rights and the impact on the most vulnerable populations. The UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights emphasizes “increasing frequency of extreme weather events and natural disasters, rising sea-levels, floods, heat waves, droughts, desertification, water shortages, and the spread of tropical and vector-borne diseases” as a few of the many adverse effects resulting from climate change. Moreover, these issues threaten the enjoyment of the most basic rights including right to life, water, food, sanitation, among many others. Ethiopia, a country with over 80% of its population living in multidimensional poverty, is no beginner when it comes to dealing with famines. The Ethiopian Civil war began with a coup d’etat in 1973, which was largely a result of unrest after Emperor Haile Selassie refused to respond to the 1972 famine. In 1984, Ethiopia suffered a worse, more publicized famine, which is said to have killed over a million people. International initiatives were able to secure international aid, but political instability into 1991 led to lower rates of development as compared to its other Sub-Saharan neighbors. In the midst violence, a large sector of the Ethiopian population was lost, and the Ethiopian economy collapsed as a result of the government’s resistance to welcome international aid in rebel-controlled areas. The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia was established in 1991 and was followed by a shift in Ethiopia’s resistance to international aid, ultimately jumpstarting the upwards trend of development.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Human Rights, and Famine
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

15. North Korean Agriculture: Recent Changes and Prospects after Unification

Author:
Randall Ireson
Publication Date:
10-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
Modern farming in Korea has followed two divergent paths since the partition of the peninsula. Both countries substantially raised agricultural production in the 1970s, but policy decisions in North Korea created a situation in which the farm sector stagnated and ultimately failed when faced with changes in the 1990s. In addition to reviewing the technical and policy changes since the start of the food crisis, this paper examines the likely consequences of reunification on the North Korean farm sector. Structural changes would include the dominance of a market economy, dissolution of cooperative and state farms, and the need to recapitalize the entire farm economy. Organizational changes regarding land tenure, operation and management of formerly collective resources, and new roles for former North Korean agricultural guidance and research organizations would be challenging. Rural residents would face personal challenges of adapting to the requirements and thinking patterns of a market economy, coupled with the loss of close technical direction by the North Korean planning system. Although there are opportunities for enhanced farm productivity and economic well being at the household level, smoothly adapting to reunification would greatly depend on planning, policies and resources set in place for such an event.
Topic:
Agriculture, History, Famine, and Economy
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

16. Moral Hazard? 'Mega' public-private partnerships in African agriculture

Author:
Robin Willoughby
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
After decades of underinvestment in agriculture, African governments are rightly looking at how best to mobilize funding for the sector. Donors in turn are keen to reverse a trend of neglect and to support initiatives that are simultaneously likely to enhance productivity, improve livelihoods and increase private sector investment. Private investors, concurrently, are looking for new consumer markets and production opportunities in Africa.
Topic:
Agriculture, Food, Famine, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Africa

17. EU's Readmission Agreement and Visa Liberalization Talks with Turkey: Backing up Turkey's Protracted Way to the EU

Author:
Lenka Peťková
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:
European Union (EU) has been reluctant to start visa liberalization talks with Turkey until mid–2012 despite the fact that citizens of all other candidate countries have enjoyed visa-free travel to Schengen area since 2009. The Turkish diplomats had mastered to negotiate roadmap to visa-free travel in an exchange for the initial of the readmission agreement, implementation of which is considered key in securing EU's eastern borders. The issues of migration and visa policy are covered in the negotiating chapter Justice, Freedom and Security, which has been blocked by the Republic of Cyprus. Demonstrating that the said topics represent joint interest of Turkey and the EU, the chapter was added to the positive agenda launched this May with the aim to keep Turkey's accession process alive. Despite the fact that visa liberalization and readmission agreement will both be negotiated outside of Turkey's accession framework, reforms adopted in these areas are likely to ease Turkey's alignment with the provisions of the relevant chapter of the acquis communautaire. Visa liberalization and readmission agreement are thus important factors influencing Turkey's protracted journey to the EU.
Topic:
Islam, Migration, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Famine
Political Geography:
Europe and Turkey

18. A Shift in Focus: Putting the interests of Somali people first

Author:
Ellie Kemp and Ben Murphy
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
More than six months after famine was declared by the United Nations (UN), Somaliais still in the throes of its worst humanitarian crisis in decades. More than 325,000 children are suffering acute malnutrition inside Somalia, and 31per centof the total population are estimated to be in crisis, while hundreds of thousands have fled to neighbouring countries.
Topic:
Security, Humanitarian Aid, Islam, Poverty, United Nations, and Famine
Political Geography:
Africa and United Kingdom

19. A Dangerous Delay: The cost of late response to early warnings in the 2011 drought in the Horn of Africa

Author:
Debbie Hillier and Benedict Dempsey
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The 2011 crisis in the Horn of Africa has been the most severe emergency of its kind this century. More than 13 million people are still affected, with hundreds of thousands placed at risk of starvation. One estimate suggests that 50,000–100,000 people have died. This crisis unfolded despite having been predicted. Although brought on by drought, it was human factors which turned the crisis into a deadly emergency.
Topic:
Development, Non-Governmental Organization, United Nations, and Famine
Political Geography:
Africa

20. Climate Change as a Conflict Multiplier

Author:
Amanda Mayoral
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Climate change can be a conflict multiplying mechanism as it fosters unforeseen conflicts and reinforces existing ones. While there are many causes of conflict, climate change can be a trigger in the sequence. Climate effects that constrain resources are unequally distributed to those countries already in the most desperate situations. Coupled with rising population growth, these events are likely to heighten poverty in the future if no action is taken. Adaptive development must be sustainable to bridge existing shortfalls, must plan for anticipated effects, and provide for the longer-term picture. More developed and higher carbon-emitting states should engage in mitigation efforts to reduce these effects. Given that one country will feel the consequences of environmental destruction sown by another, the costs and benefits of adaptation and mitigation should be weighed from a global perspective as the capacity of countries to respond varies. Failure to mitigate and adapt to climate effects can raise the likelihood of violent conflict.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, and Famine