Publication Year: within 25 Years / Topic: Climate Change

201. Financing Responses to Climate Migration: The Unique Role of Multilateral Development Banks

Author:: Lawrence Huang, Ravenna Sohst, and Camille Le Coz
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: As climate change increasingly contributes to migration and displacement in many parts of the world, there is a pressing need for measures that build resilience and prevent displacement as well as those that help climate-affected people move to safety and support receiving communities. Multilateral development banks (MDBs) are critical, if sometimes overlooked, players because of their ability to invest in large-scale projects that contribute to sustainable development, primarily in low- and middle-income countries. This report explores the unique role of MDBs in the climate finance landscape and highlights opportunities for migration, humanitarian, and other key actors to partner with them on projects that effectively target climate-related migration and displacement. After reviewing the evidence on the complex linkages between climate and mobility, the report examines MDBs’ climate-related work to date, challenges they face to scaling up these efforts, and strategies to begin to address hurdles. These recommendations include learning from past MDB investments that have touched on climate migration, funding data collection or sharing to strengthen understanding of climate migration trends, and developing partnerships to support policy and project development, financing, and implementation.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Migration, Finance, and Banks
Political Geography:: Global Focus

202. Countering Terrorism on Tomorrow’s Battlefield: Critical Infrastructure Security and Resiliency (NATO COE-DAT Handbook 2)

Author:: Sarah J. Lohmann, Lucas M. Cox, Denise Feldner, Trevor P. Helmy, and Katherine L. Kuzminski
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: Every day, malicious actors target emerging technologies and medical resilience or seek to wreak havoc in the wake of disasters brought on by climate change, energy insecurity, and supply-chain disruptions. Countering Terrorism on Tomorrow’s Battlefield is a handbook on how to strengthen critical infrastructure resilience in an era of emerging threats. The counterterrorism research produced for this volume is in alignment with NATO’s Warfighting Capstone Concept, which details how NATO Allies can transform and maintain their advantage despite new threats for the next two decades. The topics are rooted in NATO’s Seven Baseline requirements, which set the standard for enhancing resilience in every aspect of critical infrastructure and civil society. As terrorists hone their skills to operate lethal drones, use biometric data to target innocents, and take advantage of the chaos left by pandemics and natural disasters for nefarious purposes, NATO forces must be prepared to respond and prevent terrorist events before they happen. Big-data analytics provides potential for NATO states to receive early warning to prevent pandemics, cyberattacks, and kinetic attacks. NATO is perfecting drone operations through interoperability exercises, and space is being exploited by adversaries. Hypersonic weapons are actively being used on the battlefield, and satellites have been targeted to take down wind farms and control navigation. This handbook is a guide for the future, providing actionable information and recommendations to keep our democracies safe today and in the years to come.
Topic:: NATO, Climate Change, Terrorism, Infrastructure, Elections, Drones, Pandemic, Resilience, Supply Chains, and Energy Sector
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

203. Creating a New Energy Strategy for a Post Ukraine War World

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman and Paul Cormarie
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: There is every reason for the U.S. to focus on the dangers of climate change and the need to change the sources of its energy supplies to reduce carbon emissions. The new Inflation Reduction Act that President Biden signed on August 16, 2022, is an important step toward achieving these goals. At the same time, the U.S. needs to work with its European strategic partners to permanently reduce their dependence on Russian oil and gas exports and work with Asian partners like Japan and South Korea to ensure that they will not confront a similar threat in the future from China.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, International Cooperation, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Global Focus

204. Supporting Water Programming in the Sahel

Author:: Conor M. Savoy and Alexandra Norris
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The Sahel region of Africa is one of the most climate-affected regions in the world. Temperatures are rising 1.5 percent faster than the global average rate. Increasing temperatures and irregular rainfall have resulted in regular droughts and floods that disrupt traditional agropastoral patterns and contribute to broader instability and fragility. Lake Chad, a crucial water and livelihood source for 30 million people in the Sahel, has shrunk by 90 percent since 1960, displacing 2.3 million people and creating a humanitarian crisis. Periods of prolonged and intense drought and improper land use have degraded much of the soil in the Sahel. In Burkina Faso, over one-third of farmland is degraded, meaning some land cannot sustain agriculture even when there is enough rainfall. A rapidly increasing population, coupled with the impact of climate change, means more people are competing for diminishing water resources. This results in a vicious cycle of population growth, land degradation, and food instability. The greater the population, the greater the demand for food and the greater the use of unsustainable farming practices, exacerbating food scarcity and demand for additional farmland. As the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) updates its water strategy, it is important to examine the interplay of economic and conflict fragility, irregular migration, climate change, and water availability in the Sahel to identify interventions for greater resilience. In a region like the Sahel, water is critical to resilience and adaptation to the effects of climate change. While water strategy is not a cure-all, it can improve outcomes for other challenges. The Biden administration recently announced the new Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII), an initiative to mobilize private capital investment in infrastructure. The four pillars of this initiative—climate and energy security, digital connectivity, health and health security, and gender equality and equity—could support additional investments in water infrastructure.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Health, Water, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:: Africa and Sahel

205. Galvanising the Ship of the Indian State: An Agenda for Research and Dialogue

Author:: Saurabh Kumar
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: India International Centre (IIC)
Abstract:: Three major tipping points affecting the future of the country vitally kick into play at about the same time, no more than a few decades from now: • reversal of the (currently favourable) youthful demography of the country (by 2055 or so); • danger of calamitous climate change globally beginning to affect the Indian subcontinent harshly; • likely disruptive impact of mainstreaming of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on the socio-economic order (and therefore on political stability) as a result of robots surpassing human capabilities and replacing all human labour in repetitive and routine tasks. The prospect of large sections of society finding themselves free of want (basic survival needs) but idle, and therefore terribly distraught, in other words— an ‘unknown unknown’ that would beat the classical recipe for breeding a fair crop of devil’s workshops hands down. Especially so in conjunction with maturing and convergence of other fourth generation technologies (digital, nano, bio and machine learning) and increasing fusion of cyber and physical spaces. This essay, a strategic take on the overall Indian situation, is premised on the reading that the latter two of these mega challenges (which can, without exaggeration, be characterised as existential ones) cannot be addressed adequately in ‘business as usual’ (BAU) mode within the ambit of the existing organisational structures of over a century inherited by the Indian Republic from the colonial State. The likely sweeping, 360-degree impact of these overarching trends makes for urgent review of the machinery and mechanisms of the Indian State in a pragmatic, strategic mindset aimed at bracing up for the new challenges.
Topic:: Climate Change, Government, Research, State, and Dialogue
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

206. How Much Have the Oil Supermajors Contributed to Climate Change?

Author:: Jiarui Chen, Perrine Toledano, and Martin Dietrich Brauch
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: In the 40-year period 1980–2019, annual carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel combustion, including flaring, increased by more than 80%, and total emissions from those sources represented approximately 83% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions (also including cement production and land-use change) without accounting for sinks. Understanding the carbon footprint of countries and companies along the oil value chain is fundamental to outlining paths to reduced reliance on fossil fuels. However, academic analyses of carbon footprints are limited by the lack of a reliable dataset and carbon accounting method that would allow comparisons across countries and companies.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Carbon Emissions, and Carbon Footprint
Political Geography:: Global Focus

207. Allocation of Climate-Related Risks in Investor–State Mining Contracts

Author:: Martin Dietrich Brauch, Perrine Toledano, and Cody Aceveda
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: As the effects of climate change continue to worsen, mining projects, the communities surrounding them, and their host states are increasingly at risk of being affected by environmental disasters, with devastating social and economic consequences. Risk allocation provisions included in investor–state mining contracts, often considered boilerplate and replicated in agreements without careful consideration or negotiation, could potentially help the parties assign responsibilities between themselves and limit their losses in those cases. However, traditional risk allocation clauses within existing mining contracts, formulated before the world acknowledged the severity of climate change, do not adequately allocate climate-related risks and impacts between states and companies.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, International Cooperation, United Nations, and Risk
Political Geography:: Global Focus

208. The Geopolitics of Seawater Desalination

Author:: Marc-Antoine Eyl-Mazzega and Élise Cassignol
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: Water desalination is gradually emerging as the leading solution to cope with increasing water stress: i.e., the imbalance between water demand and quantities available. The United Nations estimates that by 2025, two-thirds of the world’s population will be affected by such challenges. The causes of water scarcity are multiple, including climate change, intensive agriculture, and population growth. This requires states to rethink their water policies, which are central to preserving their stability, resilience and sovereignty. A real “boom” in desalination industries is at work. The majority of Gulf countries now largely depend on desalinated water for their inhabitants’ consumption: in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), 42% of drinking water comes from desalination plants producing more than 7 million cubic meters (m3) per day, in Kuwait it is 90%, in Oman 86%, and in Saudi Arabia 70%. In 2022, there were more than 21,000 seawater desalination plants in operation worldwide, almost twice as many as a decade ago, and the sector’s capacity is growing at between +6% and +12% per year. By 2030, desalination capacity in Middle Eastern countries is expected to almost double, as part of plans announced in the region to prepare these economies for their transition to “post-oil” and to foster resilience. Saudi Arabia’s desalination capacity is set to increase from 5.6 million cubic meter (m3) per day in 2022 to 8.5 million m3 per day in 2025, and it will have to cover more than 90% of the country’s water consumption. The same holds for the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain and Israel, where the production of desalinated water will more than double by 2030. With the rise of available solutions to meet all such needs, these technologies are now in demand on virtually every continent, while the Middle East today represents only 50% of installed capacity worldwide. In Africa, large-scale projects have recently been announced in Algeria and Morocco, countries that until now have had sufficient resources. Other countries such as Ghana, Senegal and Kenya supply many cities with desalinated seawater. This is also the case for Cairo. In the Indo-pacific region, particularly in China and India, the needs for desalinated water are increasing, driven by growing industries and decreasing available water. In 2020 alone, the construction of more than 35 desalination plants was announced in China, as well as six in the Philippines, and six in Taiwan. In the Americas, the west coast of the United States stands out with important projects in California, and Texas is not far behind. In Latin America, new projects are emerging in Peru and Chile, driven mainly by the needs of the mining industry, while in Mexico the demand for desalinated water notably comes from the population. Finally, island areas stand out for their strong needs for desalinated water: Cebu in the Philippines, Cape Verde, the Canary Islands and the Maldives are increasingly using desalination capabilities. European firms still lead, but Asian or local players are taking off There are many industrial players of varied size, although some have emerged for more than ten years as undisputed market leaders: in France, they include Engie and Veolia, whose merger with Suez opened up new prospects in the Americas, the Middle East and Europe; but there is also IDE Technologies, the Israeli champion of desalination; Korea’s Doosan Heavy, China’s Abengoa, and Spain’s Acciona. More recently, companies in emerging countries have distinguished themselves by obtaining large-scale contracts. This is particularly the case of Gulf players like the Emirati company Metito and the Saudi firm Advanced Water Technologies. Egypt also has industrial actors. Overall, the technology of reverse osmosis is largely mastered, while production differentiation concerns capacity, operational costs, electricity consumption and plant life.
Topic:: Agriculture, Climate Change, Water, Industry, and Desalination
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, and Gulf Nations

209. Five Years after China’s Plastic Import Ban Have Europeans Taken Responsibility?

Author:: Eugénie Joltreau
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: After the 2017 Chinese waste import ban, the international and European Union (EU) legislative framework on waste exports has been revised. • The amendment to the Basel Convention is stricter on the possibility to export plastic waste outside the EU, which has integrated the amendment in the waste shipment regulation (WSR) and is considering further export restrictions. Moreover, a Directive to reduce the use of single-use plastics and stimulate local demand for recycled plastics has been adopted. • The recycling rate of plastic packaging has been deteriorating since 2016 in view of the growing quantities of plastic packaging waste and limited export outlets, despite an increase in the tonnage recycled. Exports of plastic waste from the European Union have been reduced and partly redirected, with some negative environmental impacts reported. The EU demand for certain recycled plastics has boomed, encouraged by the new regulation, yet overall, EU plastic packaging consumption keeps increasing. • The debate on the export ban opposes a view of responsibility for the treatment of waste with the promotion of international waste trade as a means to achieve a global circular economy (for plastics). However, there is no evidence that the waste trade enables to increase the global recycling rate, reduces the use of virgin plastic, and reinforces sustainability. • The European Commission (EC) has released a new legislative proposal that tightens up waste export possibilities but does not ban it.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economy, Recycling, Waste, Imports, and Plastic
Political Geography:: China and Europe

210. A Green-Blue Alliance in Motion: Pacific Island Countries and Europe Fighting Climate Change

Author:: Celine Pajon
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: The Pacific Islands Countries (PICs) were the first to ratify the Paris climate agreement in 2015. Indeed, for them, climate change has had very concrete implications for years. Islanders have seen the sea level rising, endangering the very existence of atolls. They have also experienced increasingly violent cyclones and other natural disasters, and must deal with multiple impacts of a changing climate on their everyday lives More than bearing the brunt of such impacts, and they have been calling for the rest of the world to awaken to this existential threat. At the recent UN General Assembly, the government of Vanuatu, supported by other states, led an initiative to ask for the opinion of the International Court of Justice on climate change. The European Union (EU) has been a proactive leader in international negotiations on climate change; it strives to lead by example and do its share to mitigate climate impacts and support adaptation efforts. But it was perhaps on only this past summer that climate change began to feel very real for European public opinion, as the continent was ravaged by a series of heatwaves, major wildfires and droughts that had serious impacts on biodiversity, agriculture, but also human health. Some have said this is the “end of innocence” for the Europeans on climate change. This episode might help bridge the gap and make Europeans better understand what the populations of the Pacific Islands have been enduring, keeping in mind that PICs are more exposed and have fewer financial resources to implement solutions. It might also raise greater interest about the way Oceanians could adapt and provide innovative solutions. This Briefing argues that climate change challenges require an innovative, transformative approach to deliver results on mitigation, adaptation, and compensation for loss and damage. Europe and Oceania are two leading actors that already have a fruitful record of cooperation, and are willing to step up their cooperation to lead this transition to a new model. This paper is based on discussions that took place during the webinar “Climate Change: The Pacific Island Countries, seven years after the Paris Agreement” organized by Ifri’s Pacific Islands Program, in partnership with the Pacific Community, on September 20, 2022.4 Contributions from panelists will therefore be highlighted.
Topic:: Climate Change, European Union, Regional Integration, and Biodiversity
Political Geography:: Europe, Indo-Pacific, and Pacific Islands

211. COP27: Will Egypt Bring New Life to Climate Conferences?

Author:: Thibaud Voïta
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: The COP26, held at the end of 2021 in Glasgow, was emphatically heralded as “the last best hope for the world to get its act together”. Many elements are pointing to a particularly difficult COP27, among which the unfinished work of the Glasgow COP, the worsening of the climate crisis, the tensions in the hydrocarbon markets, and the risks of economic recession. This COP in Sharm-El-Sheik is nevertheless the first hosted outside the European continent since 2016 and the first under the aegis of a rapidly changing UN Climate Change. It takes place on the African continent and, like the COP28 chaired by the United Arab Emirates, is held in a country that wants to be a hub for all types of energies. Therefore, the role of gas in the energy transition has become a central topic. Finally, African countries are pushing for a greater contribution from rich countries to the fight against climate change, especially regarding the financial adaptation, and the acceleration of implementation efforts (rather than announcements of new initiatives).
Topic:: Climate Change, European Union, Gas, Renewable Energy, Energy, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: North Africa and Egypt

212. The European Green Deal, Three Years On: Acceleration, Erosion or Fragmentation?

Author:: Marc-Antoine Eyl-Mazzega and Diana-Paula Gherasim
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: The European Green Deal (EGD) is the single most defining policy initiative of the von der Leyen Commission. Since its publication in December 2019, it has become the European Union’s (EU) new raison d’être: protecting the planet and Europeans from environmental degradation, through a holistic approach to the energy transition, while promoting sustainable growth and a just transition with no social group or territory left behind. The credibility of the EGD was secured by the European Climate Law, which makes the objectives of climate-neutrality by 2050 and a reduction of at least 55% in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030 legally binding at the EU level. This has given a strong mandate to the European Commission (EC) to propose an overhaul of European energy and climate policies. The EC has lived up to the task remarkably, resolutely sticking to an accelerated policy and legislative timeline, featuring around 30 strategies and action plans, in addition to emblematic, coherent legislative packages like Fit for 55. The European Parliament has also positioned itself as a key stakeholder, finding consensus on overall targets and objectives. While all Member States (MSs) finally subscribed to the EGD ambition and agenda, they remain torn between a discourse that is largely supportive of the energy transition, but which in reality suffers from insufficient implementation efforts and mounting difficulties. Three years since the EGD set the direction of travel for the EU for the next 30 years, the EU finds itself in the midst of a storm not seen since World War II, coming just after it successfully weathered the Covid-19 pandemic. The war in Ukraine is a tectonic game changer with profound implications that are yet to be fully grasped. For energy and climate policies, these new realities require reviewing many assumptions about the energy transition, energy security, social acceptance, economic competitiveness, and hence, decarbonization strategies and policies going forward.
Topic:: Climate Change, European Union, Gas, Fossil Fuels, Nuclear Energy, Green Deal, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe

213. To Prevent the Collapse of Biodiversity, the World Needs a New Planetary Politics

Author:: Stewart Patrick
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The planet is in the midst of an environmental emergency, and the world is only tinkering at the margins. Humanity’s addiction to fossil fuels and voracious appetite for natural resources are accelerating climate change and degrading ecosystems on land and sea, threatening the integrity of the biosphere and thus the survival of our own species. Given these risks, it is shocking that the multilateral system has failed to respond more forcefully. Belatedly, the United States, the EU, the UK, and some other advanced market democracies have adopted more aggressive greenhouse gas reduction targets, but their ability to deliver is suspect, while critical emerging economies like China and India have resisted accelerating their own decarbonization.1 Even more concerning, existing multilateral commitments, including on climate change, fail to address the other half of the planet’s ecological crisis: collapsing biodiversity, which the leaders of the Group of 7 nations rightly call an “equally important existential threat.”
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Politics, Multilateralism, and Biodiversity
Political Geography:: Global Focus

214. Developing Nuclear Energy in Estonia: An Amplifier of Strategic Partnership with the United States?

Author:: Tomas Jermalavicius, Max Bergmann, Peter Crall, Thomas O'Donnell, Tomas Janeliūnas, and Tõnis Idarand
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: Estonia’s climate neutrality commitments and its simultaneous pursuit of national security mean that it will need to develop and cultivate new zero- or low-carbon, affordable, secure and safe domestic sources of energy. Nuclear energy is increasingly regarded as one of the critical ingredients of successful transition to climate-neutral energy system and as a viable part of the future decarbonised mix of energy supply. Therefore, Estonia is officially considering the possibility to adopt nuclear energy generated by new-design Small Modular Reactors (SMR). This choice, however, is not purely environmental, economic or technical, but also has geopolitical implications. It would create new long-term inter-dependencies with foreign partners which could represent fresh opportunities for closer cooperation in security and foreign policy domain, but also could create some new political, reputational, and national security risks. This geopolitical dimension is of particular importance to countries such as Estonia that seek greater involvement of key allies such as the United States, United Kingdom, France, and Germany in the Nordic-Baltic area to counter the geopolitical pressure from Russia and, increasingly, China. The report assumes that Estonia might eventually opt for nuclear energy and would then choose the US as its SMR technology supplier. It explores how Estonia’s foreign and security policy interests would benefit from a potential adoption of nuclear energy and development of technological and commercial relations in this field with the US. The report also maps various potential risks in relations with several key fellow member states of the European Union that may arise from Estonia turning to nuclear power as a major source of energy and to the US for a technological solution. It considers how certain structural issues in national energy policies and divergent geopolitical perspectives of Germany, France, and Poland – as well as some persistent characteristics of intra-European relations manifest through the EU’s common policies – may impair or facilitate Estonian nuclear aspirations. The study also highlights that Estonia’s affirmative decision concerning nuclear energy is likely to draw the attention and actions of malignant actors such as Russia aiming to discredit nuclear energy in general, as a viable pathway to energy security and climate neutrality, and US SMR technology in particular; undermine trust – domestically and internationally – in the ability of the Estonian government and enterprises to ensure competent and responsible stewardship of nuclear energy, and pit Estonia against some key regional and European allies. The report articulates some recommendations on how to better exploit the opportunities related to the US involvement in the development of Estonia’s nuclear energy programme and mitigate the identified risks.
Topic:: Climate Change, National Security, Partnerships, and Nuclear Energy
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Estonia, North America, and United States of America

215. Security Challenges in the Eastern Mediterranean

Author:: Leah Pedro and Aaron Stein
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: On May 2–3 2022, the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung Syria/Iraq Office and the Foreign Policy Research Institute convened a panel of foreign policy experts for a dialogue on security challenges present in the Eastern Mediterranean. The first day addressed state fragility in the region and how this phenomenon intersects with systemic security issues, including climate change, maritime issues, and migration. The second day of dialogue addressed military issues, including Russian naval modernization, US-Russian regional retrenchment, and how each country views the other’s long-term regional ambitions. Additionally, the conversations in the second day covered European regional security views and how the broader US-Russia rivalry impacts thinking on the continent amidst the current crisis landscape. In each panel, two guest speakers shared their subject matter expertise on the focus topic and a dialogue followed brief presentations. The entirety of the event was conducted under Chatham House Rule, wherein the participants could share views and opinions freely. As a result, findings from these conversations can be more transparent than traditional formal dialogues in traditional diplomatic channels. In this report, we share the consensus highlights and points of contention which came from the discussions. As the nature of Chatham House Rule protects the identity of our participants, below are a few areas of expertise found among those involved in the dialogue.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Diplomacy, Migration, National Security, Economy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Mediterranean

216. The Social Side of Climate Change Adaptation: Reducing Conflict Risk

Author:: Farah Hegazi and Katongo Seyuba
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:: In developing countries, the effects of climate change interact with factors such as underdevelopment, high dependence on natural resource-based livelihoods, inequality, weak state institutions and marginalization to increase the risk of insecurity and violent conflict. Along with sustainable development and climate change mitigation, climate change adaptation is another key entry point for addressing climate-related security risks. However, key social factors that could positively influence adaptation outcomes and ultimately mitigate climate-related security risks are often overlooked. This SIPRI Policy Brief offers insights into the importance of social capital for facilitating climate change adaptation and preventing and resolving natural resource-related communal conflict in developing countries. The policy brief recommends: (a) improving trust between communities and governments through collaborative processes for knowledge exchange, setting priorities and determining appropriate climate change adaptation practices; and (b) increasing knowledge of climate change among traditional and local leaders to strengthen local conflict resolution mechanisms.
Topic:: Climate Change, Conflict, Risk, Social Capital, and Adaptation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

217. Gender Dimensions of Climate Insecurity

Author:: Elizabeth Smith
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:: Gender is a traditionally under researched dimension in scholarship on climate and security. However, as recent research has noted, it is a variable that cannot only shape how different groups of individuals are affected by climate-related security risks. Gendered norms and power structures can also increase or mitigate the likelihood of climate-related security risks. This SIPRI Insights contributes to the growing body of research on gender, climate and security by analysing the gender dimensions of the four pathways of climate insecurity featured in past SIPRI studies: (a) livelihood deterioration, (b) migration and changing mobility, (c) tactical considerations of armed groups and (d) elite exploitation and resource mismanagement. It reviews literature to highlight how gender can influence resilience and risk for different groups of men and women within the pathways. Where relevant, it also discusses how gender may serve as an instigating factor for the respective pathways. The paper stresses the need to critically understand the different and interlinked experiences of diverse groups of men and women in the pathway contexts and to ensure equal leadership and participation of all affected groups in addressing climate-related security risks.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Risk, Peace, and Gender
Political Geography:: Global Focus

218. Climate Change and Violent Conflict in West Africa: Assessing the Evidence

Author:: Kheira Tarif
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:: West Africa is widely cited as a hotspot of climate change and insecurity. This SIPRI Insights uses a systematic literature review of academic research to build a better understanding of the relationship between climate change and violent conflict in the region. Its findings are structured around four established ‘pathways’ of climate insecurity: (a) worsening livelihood conditions; (b) increasing migration and changing pastoral mobility patterns; (c) tactical considerations by armed groups; and (d) elite exploitation of local grievances. The literature review highlights a number of important variables in the relationship between climate change and violent conflict in West Africa: maladaptation to livelihood insecurity; migration away from climate-exposed areas; escalating farmer–herder conflicts; and sometimes weak, sometimes divisive, sometimes exploitative governance. Despite these findings, the literature review reveals current research and policy discussions on climate change and violent conflict in West Africa are informed by a very limited amount of academic research.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Development, Conflict, Violence, Risk, and Peace
Political Geography:: Africa and West Africa

219. Monetary Policy for the Climate? A Money View Perspective on Green Central Banking

Author:: Jakob Vestergaard
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Central banks can potentially influence the investment decisions of private financial institutions, which in turn will create incentives towards green technology adoption and development of lower emission business models. This paper examines how monetary policies can be deployed to promote a greening of finance. To guide the efforts, the paper mobilizes the Money View literature. This enables a comparative assessment of different monetary policy options. The main finding is that a promising way forward for green monetary policy is to adopt a strategy of expanding collateral eligibility through positive screening and widening haircut spreads to change relative incentives in favor of green over brown assets.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Monetary Policy, Banking, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

220. Navigating the Crises in European Energy

Author:: Michael Grubb
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: The energy crisis engulfing Europe is a crisis of both gas and electricity markets, with huge cost impacts on consumers across all European countries. In Britain, half of typical household energy expenditure arises from electricity. This paper examines how the cost of gas-powered generation feeds through to electricity bills, on the principle of marginal cost pricing, setting the price for most of the time though it accounts for only about 40% of GB generation. Combined with the steep decline in wind and solar costs over the past decade, this has resulted in an unprecedented degree of ‘cost inversion’ in the electricity system. We offer estimates of the increase of revenues across the wholesale market, and outline five principles for reform for addressing the combined challenges of energy costs and accelerating low-carbon transition.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Green Technology, and Energy Crisis
Political Geography:: Global Focus

221. Separating electricity from gas prices through Green Power Pools: Design options and evolution

Author:: Michael Grubb and Drummond Pike
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: This paper develops a detailed proposal for an efficient way to channel the value of large-scale renewables, which have become much cheaper than gas-driven wholesale electricity prices, to consumers at ‘cost-plus’ prices. This would reduce the fiscal pressure on governments for market- wide subsidies and offer more stable support for consumers most in need. We detail how this ‘green power pool’ approach could interact with the wholesale market to ensure firm power, also bringing transparency to the cost of balancing the variable renewables output, and maintaining incentives for efficient supply and demand responses. We illustrate the approach with reference to the cost and volume trajectories of UK renewables backed by government CfDs, targeted initially to particular consumer groups, as a first step in a wider transition towards direct consumer access to cheap renewables.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Green Technology, Renewable Energy, and Energy Crisis
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

222. Implications of a Melting Arctic

Author:: Sascha Glaeser
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: Melting ice is making the Arctic more accessible, which in turn may affect three key issues in the region—militarization, maritime trade, and natural resource development. U.S. security interests in the Arctic remain deterring an attack on the United States and NATO allies and ensuring the lawful use of Arctic waters. The United States can secure both at minimum cost and risk. Greater accessibility does not increase threats emanating from the Arctic, so the United States does not need to do more militarily to ensure its security. Militarization absent threats could lead to a destabilizing security dilemma. Trans-Arctic maritime trade routes and natural resource development present potential economic opportunities; however, both still face significant challenges that limit their near-term viability. The United States should be vigilant to Russian and Chinese activity in the Arctic and avoid overreacting or reflexively mirroring their behavior. A U.S. Arctic strategy built on the reality that the United States enjoys a strong conventional and nuclear deterrent, a robust network of Arctic allies, and favorable geography, is the best avenue to protect U.S. interests and keep the Arctic at peace.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Natural Resources, Trade, and Militarization
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Arctic, and United States of America

223. The EU Green Deal. A new momentum for democratic governance in the MENA region?

Author:: Dina Fakoussa
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: Dysfunctional governance and repression lie at the heart of social, economic and political challenges and crises in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The nature of governance, whether autocratic, corrupt, crony capitalist, highly centralised, patriarchal and/or merely incompetent, led to alarming socioeconomic and political grievances. These grievances accumulated over decades sparking region- wide protests in 2010, 2011 and subsequent years. Without major improvements in the quality of democratic governance,1 further crises are inevitable, and sustainable stability will remain unattainable, with major negative repercussions for the European Union (EU) itself. Naturally, climate change is augmenting these challenges and increasing the pressure on government performance. The EU Green Deal addresses this uniquely urgent matter in need of assertiveness, namely climate change with its worldwide palpable repercussions and impact for all. The deal has serious implications for economies and hence societies in MENA countries. At the same time, it could and must serve as a vehicle for improved democratic governance in the region. This is also in the interests of the EU’s green ambitions, as lasting environmentally sound and socially just policies in countries beyond the EU will hardly materialise without improvements in the area of democratic governance. The two subject areas are mutually dependent; hence, the durable success of climate policies is unlikely without being buttressed by democratic components. This understanding needs to be mirrored in all EU policies and programmes targeting the region by interweaving climate policies with democratic governance.
Topic:: Climate Change, Governance, European Union, Democracy, Repression, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Middle East, North Africa, and MENA

224. Could the EU’s New Agenda for the Mediterranean Turn Climate Change from a “Threat Multiplier” into an “Opportunities Multiplier”?

Author:: Desirée A.L Quagliarotti
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: The Mediterranean countries are characterised by evident gaps in terms of demographic growth, socioeconomic conditions and natural resources availability, which undermine the process of Euro-Mediterranean cohesion and create a situation of structural weakness that makes them extremely vulnerable to destabilising events. In just over a decade, the Mediterranean region has been affected by major changes that, at first glance, do not seem to be related to each other. The wave of pro-democracy protests called the “Arab Spring” that has plagued the regimes of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) since 2010 has shown how climate-driven crop failures in major food exporting countries may contribute to driving up international food prices and to amplifying social and political destabilisation, especially in food-import dependent countries (Werrell & Femia, 2013). The “Arab unhappiness” that spurred the popular uprisings has not faded over the years, giving rise to what has been referred to as the “Arab Spring 2.0”. This new round of turmoil, in which protesters demand a better quality of life, has been exacerbated by 2020s COVID-19 pandemic, clearly demonstrating, once again, the close interconnection between human well-being and planetary health.[1] In the same time frame, in the Northern Mediterranean Countries (NMCs), the migrant-refugee crisis, characterised by new migration waves triggered by traditional as well as unconventional push factors linked to the effects of climate and environmental changes, is becoming one of the most important and divisive issues in recent European politics, adding a new layer of instability to the already shaky European Union (EU) (Pawel & Roland, 2018).
Topic:: Climate Change, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Europe and Mediterranean

225. Preventing the Critical Minerals Crisis

Author:: Tobias Gehrke and Mart Smekens
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: From fighting climate change to limiting dependencies on systemic rivals – radically shifting towards a green economy has become a strategic imperative to secure European autonomy, prosperity, and security. The catch: the EU’s dependence on minerals and metals at the heart of green technologies foreshadows looming geoeconomic and geopolitical crises. In the long-term, recycling and technological advances will scale and become key measures for decreasing supply vulnerabilities. But preventing a looming crisis also requires a bold foreign policy agenda to boost global mineral capacities, ease bottlenecks, and ensure sustainability standards. The Global Gateway can offer an important blueprint for strategic upgrading of hard and soft infrastructure along the green mineral supply chain and, especially in tandem with American partners, can be a real gamechanger to shift towards green economies.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Regional Cooperation, Infrastructure, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe

226. Transparency in multilateral climate governance: Ranking countries by the Climate Transparency Adherence Index

Author:: Romain Weikmans and Antto Vihma
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Reporting and review arrangements are often portrayed as vital for keeping countries informed about each other’s climate intentions and actions. They are set in order to enhance accountability and mutual trust, ultimately securing more ambitious climate actions. This Briefing Paper provides an updated analysis of state engagement with the recent reporting requirements under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The analysis shows that the performance of countries continues to vary greatly. The full data of the research is available to be requested from the authors. Understanding current trends of engagement with reporting is crucial for informing the effective implementation of the Paris Agreement. Indeed, the Agreement calls for an “Enhanced Transparency Framework” to be implemented by 2024. This represents a major ramping up of transparency obligations, especially for developing countries. Significant challenges lie ahead in the implementation of ever more stringent transparency requirements. Political reluctance to report on national climate actions (or lack thereof) to multilateral institutions such as the UNFCCC is a likely obstacle to the functioning of the new transparency framework. Technical obstacles may also limit the disclosure of information.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Governance, Multilateralism, and Transparency
Political Geography:: Global Focus

227. Re-securitizing climate: From ‘climate security’ to ‘ecology of peace’?

Author:: Emma Hakala and Vadim Kononenko
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: One implication of the war in Ukraine is that collective solutions to climate security will be ever more difficult to forge. Earlier hopes for cooperation were focused on the ‘securitization’ of climate change – that is, presenting it as an issue for security policy. The expectation was that the security implications of climate change would be recognized as a shared threat and dealt with through multilateral cooperation under UN leadership. The securitization of climate change took place at the same time as a decline in liberalism and multilateralism in international politics. The rise of conflictual and disintegrative tendencies in international relations creates a dangerous geopolitical context for climate change. Climate security is part of great-power politics. Recognizing this requires a deep rethinking of how cooperation can be achieved if this issue cannot be decoupled from geopolitical gridlocks. Climate and environment issues should be ‘re-securitized’, for example, by further embedding them into the few existing multilateral regimes, such as the Paris Agreement and the UN Convention on Biodiversity.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Environment, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

228. EU-Africa relations ahead of the EU-AU Summit: Taking stock, looking forward

Author:: Pavlos Petidis
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: The European Union’s (EU) development policy is a broad field of activity that has undergone multiple significant modifications in both its definitions and its goals. The external relations of the European Union have long included development policy, resulting in an asymmetrical relationship with Africa. Since the turn of the century, the scope of the EU-Africa relationship has expanded to cover new challenges including climate change, terrorism, trade liberalization, and migration. EU development policies reveal a long-term shift in EU development priorities away from fundamental development goals and toward a wider array of ambitions, actors, and methodologies. Identifying and prioritizing the International Organizations on which it and its member states should best focus their diplomatic and political capital is a challenge. Given the political clout and relevance of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) for the continent’s economic development, the EU can concentrate its efforts on encouraging its implementation by deepening its Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs). Working together to strengthen multilateralism and support the implementation of the European Green Deal and the AfCFTA form the axis of a new articulated African agency.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Diplomacy, Migration, Terrorism, European Union, Partnerships, and African Union
Political Geography:: Africa and Europe

229. Achieving the full potential of sustainable finance: The role of national, European and international initiatives

Author:: Eva De Francesco
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: When signing the 2016 Paris Agreement, a legally binding international treaty on climate change, world leaders agreed to pursue the ambitious goals of achieving climate neutrality and mitigating the effects of climate change. Almost every country around the globe recognised that business-as-usual is not an option if we are to save the planet and human existence. As a result of this realisation and commitment, different green measures are being taken globally, regionally, locally; at all levels of societies; and in the public and private sectors. Redirecting capital flows toward a green economy is an important part of measures to take, so it is no surprise that there is a growing interest in using environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) factors as guidance points for both public and private investors. However, there is still much to be done to ensure not just sufficient investment volumes but also that investments labelled as ‘sustainable’ do, in fact, contribute to climate action objectives. In order to realise ESG markets’ full potential in supporting the global transition towards a climate-neutral economy, further effort is especially needed in the following three areas: Policymakers at all levels must urgently address greenwashing and the lack of transparent and comparable ESG data. In the context of sustainability reporting, double materiality approaches are better suited to address the urgency of climate change. Policymakers at all levels must ensure the interoperability and alignment of the rapidly evolving sustainability reporting initiatives.
Topic:: Climate Change, Finance, Sustainability, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Europe

230. Climate Finance Effectiveness: Six Challenging Trends

Author:: Beata Cichocka and Ian Mitchell
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: This paper identifies and explores a number of challenges in using international public climate finance effectively towards contributing to low-carbon and resilient growth in lower- and middle-income countries. We explore key quantitative and qualitative trends in the climate finance architecture, including predictability of disbursements, affordability and concessionality of funding, provider proliferation and project fragmentation, implementation via modalities supporting recipient ownership, and the degree to which climate-related interventions are evaluated. Our research considers these trends against globally agreed principles of development effectiveness, with the aim of improving understandings of both the common and the climate-specific challenges within development finance. Ultimately, we find that climate-related development finance faces a number of challenges relative to other official development flows, including significantly lower disbursement ratios, a higher share of finance provided through debt instruments—and a rising share of loans to lower-income countries assessed as being at high risk of debt distress, a faster pace in proliferation of providers and shrinking project sizes, and fewer efforts to systematically evaluate impacts of interventions. Each of these areas will need to be tackled by public climate finance providers to ensure that the available funding is used towards climate objectives effectively. These and other issues related to the quality of climate finance should also be considered during the design of the new quantitative climate finance target under the UNFCCC to ensure that the structure of the goal promotes accountability and increases recipients’ ability to trust in the climate finance architecture.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, International Cooperation, and Resilience
Political Geography:: Global Focus

231. Building a Portfolio of Pull Financing Mechanisms for Climate and Development

Author:: Ranil Dissanayake and Bernat Camps Adrogue
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: Pull financing is a powerful but underused mechanism for incentivising progress on hard-to-tackle social problems for which innovation or the take-up of innovation may be part of the solution. It should become part of the ongoing landscape for climate and development work. This paper sets out the specific design features for a portfolio of pull financing mechanisms to support the accelerated development of socially valuable innovations with both climate and development implications. It considers the institutional structure required to manage such a novel mechanism, a process for finding and developing a potential application, and the objectives pull financing should pursue. It then looks in detail at seven applications of pull financing in the climate and development space, each selected to illustrate the potential and challenges of the approach. We conclude by setting out how to construct a high-ambition portfolio of pull financing projects that is both tractable and attractive to potential funders.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Environment, and Finance
Political Geography:: Global Focus

232. The IMF, Africa, and Climate Change—Making Sense of an Implausible Trilogy

Author:: Daniel Citrin and Daouda Sembene
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: Evidence suggests that Africa is the most vulnerable continent to climate change. While African countries contribute relatively little to global emissions, they remain significantly vulnerable to the devastating economic effects of this phenomenon. This paper reviews IMF activities and explores how best the IMF could support efforts by African countries to cope with macroeconomic policy and structural challenges associated with climate change. To this end, while recognizing the relative significance of the overall IMF contribution to addressing this global challenge, we make several recommendations about potential ways to strengthen the role of IMF surveillance, capacity development and financing. First, IMF staff should ensure that policy advice in the context of global, regional and country surveillance fit specific circumstances and institutional capacity of African countries as well as their economic vulnerabilities to climate change. To enable timely response to climate-related crises, staff teams should also be prepared to provide advice on a flexible basis, without being tied to formal periodic work schedules. Additionally, the IMF could facilitate adaptation and mitigation by engaging in intensive outreach activities about the economic impact of climate change. Second, there is merit in developing comprehensive IMF capacity development strategies in close collaboration with the authorities in climate-vulnerable countries. For effective implementation, the IMF will need to identify and actively seek adequate financing for capacity development activities on climate issues. Finally, while the Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST) is a welcome addition to the IMF toolkit and represents a potentially significant source of financing for some sub-Saharan African countries, specific amendments could be considered notably with a view to limiting the potential cost for low-income borrowers to access its resources. Moreover, successful operationalization of the RST hinges on careful and flexible design of conditionality and how programs under the new facility will be linked to concurrent upper-credit tranche programs.
Topic:: Climate Change, International Cooperation, Finance, and IMF
Political Geography:: Africa

233. Let Them Eat Carbon

Author:: Vijaya Ramachandran and Arthur Baker
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: The push for the World Bank and others to link their investments to addressing climate concerns stems from a fear that, unless developing countries take action to decarbonize now, their economic growth will lead to vast emissions that will derail all global efforts to limit climate change. This approach, which treats low- and middle-income countries as a monolith, is unhelpful to the conversation about climate change. To understand better where emissions are concentrated and how to address them, we projected carbon dioxide emissions to 2035—the point at which observers believe they will level off in most countries due to technological advances and accumulating wealth—under some simple assumptions. Emissions from the world’s poorest 64 countries, those which get IDA loans, will remain very low for decades to come, even if their economies grow rapidly and without action to reduce emissions. Pressuring low- and lower-middle-income countries to replace plans for gas power with solar or wind energy will have limited climate benefits compared to replacing coal generation in richer countries. It is just more efficient—and just—to focus on climate mitigation where emissions are high, and on poverty reduction where poverty is high. And given that there is no sign of an increase in aid spending, especially in the poorest countries, rich countries must not cannibalize development aid or reinvent the development finance architecture
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, World Bank, Finance, Banking, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

234. Greening the US Sovereign Bond Guarantee Program: A Proposal to Boost Climate-Directed Sovereign Finance in Developing Countries

Author:: Scott Morris, Rowan Rockafellow, and Alan Cameron
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: Sovereign bond guarantees (SBGs) are an effective but underutilized instrument available to the US government in support of developing country partners. By protecting bond purchasers in the event of a foreign issuer country’s default, SBGs substantially reduce borrowing costs for developing country governments. In this CGD policy paper, we estimate the costs and benefits of historical US sovereign bond guarantees in order to model the use of SBGs for climate finance purposes. We demonstrate that the US government-provided SBG has the effect of conferring the US government’s cost of borrowing on the partner government. On that basis, it represents substantial savings for these countries. Based on this analysis, we propose a $20 billion “Green” SBG program aimed at financing climate change mitigation efforts in 28 emerging market economies. We estimate that the US government could support $20 billion in bond issuances through a subsidy outlay of $2 billion, resulting in a 22 percent reduction in borrowing cost of the target countries, which represents $4 billion in budgetary saving for their governments. We propose that the subsidy appropriations in support of the guarantees be retained and recycled within the Green SBG program, which would substantially improve the financial leverage of the program over time. We also suggest that the program could be used for climate adaptation purposes by targeting a different group of developing countries
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Finance, Sustainability, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

235. Building a Quad-South Korea Partnership for Climate Action

Author:: Kristi Govella
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: Climate change is a pressing global problem that requires action at the local, national, and international levels. While most policy has logically focused on creating international pacts to address and mitigate climate change, interest in regional or minilateral cooperation among smaller groups of countries has also grown in recent years. When the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue—more commonly known as the Quad—convened its first leader-level summit in March 2021, its member countries Australia, India, Japan, and the United States identified climate change as a priority for the grouping and for the Indo-Pacific. They established a Quad Climate Working Group to strengthen implementation of the Paris Agreement and to cooperate on climate mitigation, adaptation, resilience, technology, capacity building, and finance.1 Since then, the Quad has continued to expand its climate activities. In September 2021, the grouping added the formation of a green-shipping network and the establishment of a clean-hydrogen partnership to its goals.2 In May 2022, the four partners took the additional step of launching the Quad Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Package (Q-CHAMP).3 Why have the Quad countries decided to include climate change on their agenda? They share serious concerns about climate change, which poses a significant threat to themselves and to the Indo-Pacific as a whole. In recent years, climate change has risen in prominence on the domestic political agendas of the four Quad partners, and there are gains to be achieved through coordination and cooperation of their separate national efforts. At a time when many countries feel that international institutions simply are not working quickly or effectively enough, minilateral initiatives such as the Quad have gained appeal as a more flexible way to facilitate joint action.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Partnerships, Quad Alliance, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

236. Reducing Methane Emissions from Global Gas

Author:: Ben Cahill
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Cutting methane emissions from oil and gas will help slow the pace of global warming, and methane is firmly on the international climate agenda. But how will progress on methane rules and regulations spread beyond Europe and North America, especially to regions where state utilities and national oil companies (NOCs) play a prominent role? And how can global gas trade—especially the liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector—evolve in ways that lower methane emissions? This report outlines recent global, national, and sub-national efforts to curtail methane emissions from oil and gas. It analyzes how demand for cleaner, or “differentiated,” gas might develop, delving into the drivers for buyers and others in the gas ecosystem. It concludes with policy recommendations and suggested engagement strategies with global gas players.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, and Gas
Political Geography:: Global Focus

237. Multilateral Trade Arrangements and Climate Provisions

Author:: Emily Benson, Sparsha Janardhan, and William Alan Reinsch
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: This new paper from the CSIS Scholl Chair in International Business assesses sectoral standards bodies, evaluates environmental provisions in trade agreements, and explores opportunities for addressing climate concerns in newer trade arrangements, such as the recent announcement to negotiate a deal on green steel and aluminum between the European Union and the United States. As this paper seeks to demonstrate, binding agreements with clear enforcement mechanisms are best suited for ensuring that parties meet their climate change obligations as outlined in various bilateral or multilateral agreements. Since concluding agreements that are both binding and have clear enforcement capabilities are not always possible or politically desirable, pursuing a mixed approach—one based on best practices from a diverse set of trade architectures—may be the most viable approach that produces the most tangible outcomes. This paper evaluates climate provisions in trade architectures and makes recommendations for including climate provisions, including sectoral standards, in trade arrangements in a way that encourages increased multilateral collaboration in a WTO-compliant manner.
Topic:: Climate Change, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

238. Convergence and Divergence: Multilateral Trade and Climate Agendas

Author:: William Alan Reinsch and Emily Benson
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: If the international community wants to make meaningful progress ahead of the 2030 deadline—which critics argue is still too late to avert global catastrophe—major global players should work together to reduce emissions at home and abroad. This paper discusses the politics of climate policy in the United States and how it is influenced by relationships with the European Union and China. It analyzes these international relationships through specific policies, namely subsidies, and assesses their reduction or removal in some cases and their reallocations in others. It also evaluates the politics and policy implications of carbon border adjustments, including their compliance with existing WTO rules. These trade policies allude to domestic industrial policies and how they can be adjusted to better combat climate change while complying with existing trade rules. In outlining policy options for the United States’ trade agenda, including how the European Union and China factor into these options, the paper assesses the probability that certain climate policies will ultimately materialize. The paper argues that unilateralism is insufficient and counterproductive in both trade and climate and that only through multilateral, legally compliant policy convergence can countries stave off environmental and economic collapse.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, International Trade and Finance, Multilateral Relations, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

239. Decarbonizing Aluminum: Rolling Out a More Sustainable Sector

Author:: William Alan Reinsch and Emily Benson
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: As the effects of climate change intensify, countries and industries alike are seeking new ways to decarbonize to meet emissions targets, avoid carbon border tariffs, and reduce energy costs. Today, energy use in industry is the number one contributor to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Therefore, decarbonization of heavy industry would have a direct and immediate impact on reducing GHG emissions and slowing climate change. Aluminum is the second most used metal in the world. Its applications are numerous and fundamental, from electrical transmission to defense and construction. Aluminum is also a key input in other goods that help reduce emissions, such as electric vehicles and energy-efficient buildings, meaning that decarbonizing aluminum can help industries that are playing a critical role in global climate efforts. This paper evaluates global progress on sectoral emissions reductions and assesses policies governments can pursue to accelerate decarbonization of the aluminum sector. The aluminum industry consists of three component segments: upstream aluminum, downstream aluminum, and recycled aluminum. The upstream aluminum sector is responsible for the sourcing of raw material components from mined bauxite that is then refined into alumina and smelted into aluminum. Aluminum production is usually accomplished in two phases. In the first stage, bauxite ore is refined to obtain aluminum oxide through the Bayer process. The Hall-Heroult process of smelting the aluminum oxide to release pure aluminum comprises the second stage. Upstream production of aluminum involves the mining of bauxite and refining it into alumina. The downstream segment refers to the production of semi-fabricated aluminum products and their use in a wide range of sectors, from manufacturing and automobiles to construction and consumer products. Aluminum not only offers durability, but also is lightweight and infinitely recyclable, meaning it has clear environmental benefits compared to other similar inputs, such as steel or plastic. While aluminum does offer some environmental benefits, producing it is carbon intensive. Aluminum production processes have changed very little since the 1800s, and many countries continue to rely on coal to produce the electricity required for aluminum production. Globally, the aluminum sector contributes roughly 2 percent of GHG emissions—equivalent to about 1.1 billion tons of carbon dioxide (CO2). Yet demand for aluminum is expected to increase by 50 to 80 percent by 2050. In 2019, the aluminum industry consumed 6 percent of all global coal-fired electricity, exceeding the total amount of coal-fired electricity generated in Europe. That same year, coal-fired electricity used in aluminum electrolysis produced 636 million tons of C02 emissions, or 58 percent of the sector’s carbon footprint. On average, 72 percent of GHG emissions from primary production of aluminum are from electricity, meaning greater use of renewable energy in aluminum production could significantly decrease the sector’s carbon output. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global CO2 emissions need to decrease by 45 percent by 2030 in order to keep global warming below the 1.5 degree threshold. By accelerating the deployment of renewables and designing policies that encourage and support the decarbonization of heavy industry, the private and public sectors can play key roles in helping to reduce carbon emissions, while also continuing to grow the global economy.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Renewable Energy, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Global Focus

240. Arctic: Toward the End of the Exception? Strategic, Nuclear and Maritime Issues in the Region

Author:: Jean-Louis Lozier
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: Through multiple international initiatives, including the creation of the Arctic Council at the end of the Cold War in 1996, the Arctic appears to be one of the last areas of peaceful cooperation in the world. This “Arctic exception” is also devoid of any serious territorial dispute between the neighboring countries, some of which are nevertheless great powers: Russia, the United States, Canada, but also Sweden, Norway, Denmark (via Greenland), Iceland and Finland. However, this peaceful cooperation is not exempt from strategic rivalries: for some years now, these States in the Arctic have been redefining their strategic postures, notably through the publication of roadmaps and the deployment of new military forces trained to fight in this hostile environment. Russia thus remains the dominant power in the Arctic, in the face of a China with growing ambitions and a Western world – represented in particular by the United States – which is lagging behind after years concentrated on other military conflicts. Furthermore, the war in Ukraine that started in February 2022 also carry the germs of a broader destabilization of the region. Conventional competition is therefore renewed between these great powers, while the nuclear balance is partially maintained. It is indeed worth noticing that the Arctic is an area of direct contact between the Russian Federation and the United States. As such, it had a special significance during the Cold War as the shortest route between both adversaries for a potential ballistic missile and was a privileged position for deploying chains of radars and advanced detection systems. Finally, the shrinkage of the ice pack caused by global warming is also triggering the neighboring or more distant states’ greed, whether through the drilling possibilities for raw materials under the ice floe or the creation of new maritime routes. The latter would notably enable Russia to revitalize its northern flank and offer alternatives to existing transit routes.
Topic:: International Relations, Climate Change, Cold War, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Arctic, United States of America, and North Pole

241. The EU’s Plan to Scale up Renewables by 2030: Implications for the Power System

Author:: Susanne Nies
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: The climate and geopolitical crises call for speeding up the implementation of the European Green Deal around two main pillars: reducing energy consumption and investing in low-carbon alternatives. The swift and massive deployment of renewable energies (REN) is a major industrial challenge for the European electricity system. • Scaling up renewable energy (REN) is paramount for climate protection and energy security, but it is also a major industrial challenge for the European Union (EU). The REPowerEU plan requires multiplying the installed capacity for solar photovoltaic (PV) power by a factor of 3 and raising wind capacity by a factor of 2.5 in less than 8 years from now. • To achieve such ambitious targets, permit-granting and administrative processes need to be streamlined, while greater consistency between environmental and climate legislation is required for both REN and related infrastructure. • The precondition for massive REN deployment is an efficient and flexible energy system. The latter needs to be enforced throughout the Fit for 55 Package, and through European and national energy “system” development plans. • The EU’s REN ambitions – those related to offshore wind in particular – are disruptive in terms of technology needs, investments, as well as governance. Interim steps as well as regional and national strategies must be developed accordingly.
Topic:: Climate Change, European Union, Renewable Energy, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe

242. Two Shades of Blue: Europe and the Pacific Islands, Strategic Partners in the Indo-Pacific Era

Author:: Celine Pajon
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: In recent years, France and the European Union (EU) have published their respective Indo-Pacific strategies and a Ministerial Forum was held in Paris on February 22, 2022, bringing together over 60 foreign affairs ministers from European and Pacific Island countries. France and the EU are re-engaging in this strategic region, which is an economic and political center of gravity whose stability is threatened by transnational risks (climate change, epidemics, pressure on natural resources) and by inter-state tensions exacerbated by US-China rivalry. However, the area spanning the 22 member countries and territories of the Pacific Community (SPC) has received less attention and can even be described as a blind spot in these Indo-Pacific discussions. Yet, although they have a population of only 13 million, these Pacific Island states and territories have a combined Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of almost 40 million square kilometers (km2) and are strategically located close to East Asia. These territories and their natural resources have attracted and still attract keen interest and sometimes very violent competition between powers. Today, the Pacific Islands are on the front line of the global existential challenges of climate change, biodiversity protection and sustainable development, but also geostrategic rivalries. Due to the geographical distance and Europe's still limited knowledge of this region, political, economic and media interest is often lacking. For this reason, Ifri and the Pacific Community (SPC) have decided to organize a research program on the strategic importance of the Pacific Islands. This Briefing is based on discussions that took place at the program’s opening conference on March 10, 2022; contributions from panelists will therefore be highlighted. This report provides an overview of current regional issues in the Pacific Islands and argues for greater European engagement in the region. This rapprochement is justified firstly because European and Pacific Island countries share similar values and face similar challenges, and secondly because new European interest and facilities make Europe a partner of choice to support sustainable development in the Pacific Islands. Since this engagement will come with various challenges, recommendations for European decision-makers are outlined in the conclusions.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe, France, Indo-Pacific, and Pacific Ocean

243. Prepping for COP27

Author:: Thomas L. Crisman, David Dumke, and Zachary S. Winters
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Egypt is a microcosm for the impacts of climate change being felt across the MENA region, with water loss at the very top. It should likewise be high on the agenda when Cairo hosts this year’s UN climate summit
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, International Cooperation, United Nations, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, North Africa, Egypt, and MENA

244. WTO 2025: Getting back to the negotiating table

Author:: Alan Wm. Wolff
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The negotiation of multilateral agreements has stalled at the World Trade Organization (WTO). The action is among groups of like-minded WTO Members, either regionally or in open plurilateral agreements (OPAs) in Geneva at the WTO. There is currently no consensus among WTO Members to include plurilateral agreements officially in the set of WTO agreements. Many additional challenges require multilateral—that is, global—agreements: the pandemic, food security, and climate change, among them. A breakthrough is needed to get WTO negotiations back on track.
Topic:: Climate Change, Treaties and Agreements, Food Security, Multilateralism, COVID-19, and WTO
Political Geography:: Global Focus

245. Climate-Resilient Migrant-Friendly Towns: A Conceptual Framework

Author:: Mizan R. Khan, Madiha Chowdhury, and Saleemul Huq
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Abstract:: For the last few years, ever increasing climate change impacts resulting from the new normal of extreme events are becoming a rude fact of life around the world. The findings of the Working Group-1 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published in August 2021 again provides mortal warnings about the impending climate crisis. The impacts are particularly stark in South Asia, the most populous region on Earth. Within South Asia, Bangladesh stands as the most vulnerable: 4.1 million people were displaced due to climate disasters in 2019 (2.5% of the population), with 13.3 million people likely to face displacement by climate change by 2050, and 18% of its coastland will remain inundated by 2080 (Rigaud, et al. 2018). The Paris Agreement goal of keeping the temperature rise at 1.5°C or well below 2°C compared to pre-industrial times cannot be achieved, given the lack of ambitious mitigation, when we already live with 1.1°C higher temperature. As a result, the number of people estimated to be displaced by slow-onset events will stand at ~22.5 million by 2030 and ~34.4 million by 2050 in South Asia including Bangladesh (Singh, et. al. 2020). Where will all these people go? A land area of 147,570 km2 is inhabited by 165 million people. So, Bangladesh has no space to retreat. Estimates show that about half a million people displaced by river-bank erosion move to Dhaka city alone, crowding the slums and mounting pressure on limited city services. In such a situation, one option to address displacements in a world of increasing urbanization including in Bangladesh could be the transformation of smaller towns to be climate resilient and migrant-friendly (CRMFT). This option appears practicable for populous countries like Bangladesh, having little or no space for retreat from vulnerable hotspots. In this context, several queries can be raised: What is the rationale of the model of CRMFT? What does make a town climate resilient and migrant-friendly? What are its elements and dimensions? While responding to these queries, this policy brief attempts to design a framework for CRMFT, though it may differ across physical and socio-economic boundaries.
Topic:: Climate Change, Migration, Displacement, and Resilience
Political Geography:: Bangladesh and South Asia

246. What does the IPCC Working Group II say about Bangladesh in its Sixth Assessment Report?

Author:: Saleemul Huq, Md. Bodrud-Doza, Khandker Tarin Tahsin, and Mizan R. Khan
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Abstract:: In March and April 2017 Bangladesh experienced drastic floods which affected 220,000 ha of nearly ready to be harvested summer paddy crop and resulted in almost a 30% year on year increase in paddy prices. An attribution study of those pre-monsoon extreme rainfall events in Bangladesh concluded that anthropogenic climate change doubled the likelihood of the extreme rainfall events resulting in such floods. Forecast-based financing, which automatically triggers funds when threshold forecasts are reached for an extreme event, used in Bangladesh prior to a 2017 flood event, allowed low-income, flood-prone communities to access better quality food in the short term without accruing debt.
Topic:: Climate Change, Natural Disasters, Food Security, Flood, and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Political Geography:: Bangladesh and South Asia

247. Weathering shocks: the effects of weather shocks on farm input use in sub-Saharan Africa

Author:: Aimable Nsabimana
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: : There has been much discussion on climate change and its adverse effects on agriculture, including excessive loss of food production. In regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, where agriculture is the major source of household livelihoods, shocks in weather patterns affect farmers’ expectations of farm yield and hence the decision to adopt farm inputs such as fertilizers and pesticides and the extent of their utilization, particularly given the relatively high cost of these inputs. In this study, I explore the relationship between weather shocks and the intensity of inputs use at the plot level using large-scale national panel data from three African countries: Niger, Nigeria, and Tanzania. By combining monthly drought index data with a rich Living Standards Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture dataset, I find that the intensity of chemical fertilizer use reduces much more in drought-prone areas than in less drought-prone areas during growing seasons. I also find that drought during lean seasons is associated with higher pesticide uptake. The evidence suggests that drought induces farmers to purposively reduce farm investments, including yield-enhancing technology such as chemical fertilizer, hence worsening adverse farm yield effects.
Topic:: Agriculture, Climate Change, Food Security, Weather, and Chemical Fertilizer
Political Geography:: Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

248. The Rising National Security Threats from Climate Change in the Mediterranean Region

Author:: Katerina Sokou
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Climate change hazards, from rising sea levels to forest fires, are set to asymmetrically impact the Mediterranean’s coastal ecosystems. In addition to increased natural disasters, climate change also will exacerbate the region’s economic vulnerabilities stemming from resource scarcity, heat stress, and impacts on tourism. With increased stress on populations in the region, climate pressures have the potential to indirectly exacerbate violent conflict. The potential for future threats from climate change necessitates that nations consider not only national climate plans, but strategies to mitigate global pressures on supply chains, food systems, and economic interdependencies to manage cross-border risks. The United Nations Environment Programme’s Mediterranean Action Plan serves as a starting point by assessing these risks. Building on it, the European Union can direct development assistance towards strengthening countries’ abilities to adapt, further strengthened by transatlantic cooperation. In anticipation of the security ramifications of climate change, NATO should set climate adaptation as a priority. The transition to renewable energy will result in both economic and geopolitical benefits through the creation of jobs and development of advanced technologies. Tourism, which makes up a fifth of Greece’s GDP, is likely to be adversely impacted by higher temperatures and natural disasters. This could generate additional risk for Greece’s financial credibility. The EU should consider this as a threat to the institution as a whole, with Greece and Cyprus the member states most vulnerable to climate change. Fortunately, Greece has a solid foundation from which to build up its climate resiliency, as strategies to this end are part of the Greece 2.0 plan and the country is already one of the top producers of wind and solar energy globally. The Mediterranean should not be making these efforts alone as economic and geopolitical stressors cause cross-border instability, a strong motivator for the region and partners to deliberately address climate adaptation in tandem.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, National Security, Natural Disasters, and European Union
Political Geography:: Mediterranean

249. Energy as a Tool for Israeli-Palestinian Peacebuilding

Author:: Bar Rapaport
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: This article focuses on energy as a tool for promoting peace between Israel and the Palestinians. It describes how the energy relations between Israel and the Palestinians reflect the existing relationship between the parties, and the potential they hold for promoting cooperation and peace. The energy sector and the energy relations between Israel and the Palestinians largely determine the level of energy services and electricity infrastructure in the West Bank. At present, this dependency does not benefit either party. The article points to a number of current initiatives aimed at strengthening Palestinian energy independence as well as energy security. At the same time, it highlights the inherent tensions in the management of the energy sector in the Israeli-Palestinian case, for example between energy independence and energy poverty in the West Bank and between responses to the climate crisis and the need for energy security. Finally, the article argues that the energy sector must be examined as an integral part of the political-diplomatic relationship between Israel and the Palestinians and that it must address the various tensions and promote energetic cooperation in the interest of peace.
Topic:: Climate Change, Infrastructure, Peacebuilding, and Energy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and West Bank

250. Mine Action and the Environment in Karabakh

Author:: Emil Hasanov
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: The now‑liberated areas of Azerbaijan are contaminated by mines and explosive remnants of war (ERW), the clearance thereof being one of Baku’s highest post‑conflict priorities. Before proceeding any further, we must provide proper definitions of these terms, since they are technical in nature and thus may not be familiar to the general reader. According to the Convention on the Prohibition of the Use, Stockpiling, Production and Transfer of Anti‑Personnel Mines and on Their Destruction that was adopted in Oslo in 1997 and entered into force in 1999 (it is colloquially called the AntiPersonnel Mine Ban Convention, or APMBC), an anti‑personnel mine “means a mine designed to be exploded by the presence, proximity or contact of a person and that will incapacitate, injure or kill one or more persons.” An antivehicle or antitank mine is effectually the same thing, except that it is designed to explode when triggered by a vehicle. Together, they fall under the catchall term mine, which the same document defines as a “munition designed to be placed under, on, or near the ground or other surface area and to be exploded by the presence, proximity, or contact of a person or a vehicle.” Furthermore, explosive remnants of war (ERW) are defined as explosive munitions left behind after a conflict has ended. They include unexploded artillery shells, grenades, mortars, rockets, air‑dropped bombs, and cluster munitions. If such weapons fail to detonate as intended for whatever reason, they are called unexploded ordnance (UXO); if, on the other hand, they have not been used during an armed conflict and have been left behind by the party that brought them to the battlefield, they are called abandoned explosive ordnance (AXO). Lastly, cluster bombs or cluster munitions, which are defined as weapons containing from several to hundreds of explosive submunitions. They are dropped either from the air or fired from the ground and are designed to break open in mid‑air, releasing submunitions and saturating an area that can be as wide as several football pitches. Based on past practice, the failure rate of cluster munitions to explode as intended stands at between 10 and 30 percent.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Environment, Mining, and Recovery
Political Geography:: Central Asia, Asia, and Azerbaijan

251. Unfarmed Now, Uninhabited When? Agriculture and climate change in Iraq

Author:: Oxfam Publishing
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Small-scale farmers in Iraq are among the most affected groups in Iraq by climate change and water scarcity. With the reduction of rainfall and soaring temperature, agricultural production is dropping, and farmers’ ability to cope is hindered. Affected farmers are exhausted and feel that they are left alone in the face of crisis. Many farmers are leaving their lands and looking for better opportunities away from their land and the urban areas. Duty bearers need to mobilize resources and political well to support farmers and the agricultural sector through a national strategy with clear vision on the current needs and comprehensive forecast of the impacts of climate change. While agriculture is at the heart of Iraq’s past and present, its position in the country’s future is at risk.
Topic:: Security, Agriculture, Climate Change, Food, and Farming
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

252. Environment in Times of War: Climate and Energy Challenges in the Post-Soviet Region

Author:: Aldo Ferrari and Eleonora Tafuro Ambrosetti
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: The impact of Russia’s war against Ukraine has been devastating both politically and environmentally. On top of the environmental damage directly caused by military operations, the invasion has put an abrupt end to the EU-Russia “green cooperation”, which had previously raised many hopes. At the same time, it has also shifted international attention away from climate and environmental concerns, which are particularly acute in the post-Soviet region. This Report analyses some of the main climate change and environmental issues in the post-Soviet space, providing an initial assessment of the invasion’s impact. The bulk of the latest scholarly and policy production on these matters focuses on Russia — given the country’s geopolitical and energy relevance. However, this analysis finds that environmental disasters such as the desertification of the Aral Sea transcend state borders and require a broader approach both from an analytic and policy standpoint.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, War, European Union, Post-Soviet Space, and Energy
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

253. Decarbonisation of the energy system

Author:: Georg Zachmann, Alexander Roth, Ben McWilliams, Franziska Holz, Robin Sogalla, Frank Meissner, and Claudia Kemfert
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Three quarters of the European Union’s greenhouse gas emissions stem from burning coal, oil and natural gas to produce energy services, including heating for buildings, transportation and operation of machinery. The transition to climate neutrality means these services must be provided without associated emissions. It is not possible today to determine tomorrow’s optimal clean energy system, largely because the cost, limitations and capability developments of competing technologies cannot be predicted. Energy systems with widely diverging shares of ‘green fuels’, in the form of electricity, hydrogen and synthetic hydrocarbons, remain conceivable. We find the overall cost of these systems to be of the same order of magnitude, but they involve larger investments at different stages of value chains. A large share of synthetic hydrocarbons would require more investment outside the EU, but less in domestic infrastructure and demand-side appliances, while electrification requires large investment in domestic infrastructure and appliances. Current projections show an overall cost advantage for direct electrification, but projections will evolve and critical players may push hard for alternative fuels. Policy will thus play a major role in shaping this balance. Political decisions should, first, push out carbon-emitting technology, primarily through carbon pricing. The more credible and predictable this strategy is over the coming decades, the smoother will be both divestment from brown technologies and investment in green technologies. Second, policy needs to help ensure that enough climate-neutral alternatives are available in time. Clear public support should be given to three system decisions about which we are sufficiently confident: the massive roll-out of renewable electricity generation; the electrification of significant shares of final energy consumption; and rapid phase-out of coal from electricity generation. For energy services where no dominant system has yet emerged, policy should forcefully explore different solutions by supporting technological and regulatory experimentation. Given the size and urgency of the transition, the current knowledge infrastructure in Europe is insufficient. Data on the current and projected state of the energy system remains inconsistent, either published in different places or not at all. This impedes the societal discussion. The transition to climate neutrality in Europe and elsewhere will be unnecessarily expensive without a knowledge infrastructure that allows society to learn which technologies, systems, and polices work best under which circumstances.
Topic:: Climate Change, European Union, Carbon Emissions, Decarbonization, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe

254. The role of competition in the transition to climate neutrality

Author:: Georg Zachmann
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The transition to climate neutrality requires the reallocation of production factors from polluting activities to non-polluting activities. The main push for this reallocation will come from governmental decarbonisation targets that are translated into stringent climate policy tools, such as carbon pricing and emissions standards. But the complex process of recombining production factors will require the coordination of millions of individuals and firms. The efficiency of this recombination process will be a main driver of the cost of the transition. Based on a consistent analytical framework, I argue that much more political attention should be paid to the markets and regulators that guide the re-allocation of production factors, to bring them in line with a carbon-neutral economy at the best service of European consumers. Three main issues should be considered: 1. The transition will change the role and efficiency of markets in allocating resources; 2. Competitive markets can make the transition more efficient; 3. In some areas, a too-narrow focus on competition can be detrimental, and needs to be discussed. To improve the institutions for resource allocation in the transition, policymakers should revisit three levels of intervention: 1) competition rules and enforcement should be adjusted to meet the new challenges of the transition; 2) efficient markets that are central to a climate-neutral economy – such as for electricity, emission rights or circular logistics – need to be properly designed; 3) the advantages and disadvantages of more direct state control in specific sectors should be revisited in light of the challenges of the transition. In summary, policymakers need to get away from simplistic state-or-market narratives. The focus should be on developing politically feasible frameworks for leveraging the benefits of competition for efficient resource allocation in the transition. Institutions should not focus solely on static efficiency, but must forcefully encourage investments in new systems and innovation. The role of institutions that determine resource allocation in the transition is an underappreciated but crucial area for future research and policy action.
Topic:: Climate Change, Institutions, Pollution, Carbon Emissions, Neutrality, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

255. Legal options for a green golden rule in the European Union’s fiscal framework

Author:: Zsolt Darvas
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Achieving the European Union’s climate goals and decoupling from Russian energy will require a massive increase in green public spending, which will be difficult when EU fiscal rules requiring fiscal consolidation are reinstated. The two major proposals to address the conflicting goals of fiscal consolidation and increased green public investment needs are a possible new European climate investment fund and a green golden rule. The latter would exclude any increase in net green public investment from the fiscal indicators used to measure compliance with fiscal rules, for countries with sound public finances. An EU climate fund and a well-designed green golden rule would be equivalent in terms of project selection, implementation and control procedures. If the climate fund does not involve redistribution across member states, then the treatment of related spending and consequent borrowing in national fiscal indicators and in the EU’s fiscal framework would be the same. New regulations would be needed to set up both the climate fund and the green golden rule. Special legislation would be needed to exempt the subsequent climate expenditures from EU fiscal rules in both cases. A climate fund financed by EU borrowing with redistributive effects across countries would likely result in the exclusion of the fund’s activities from national fiscal indicators and EU fiscal rules without any legislative changes. There are question marks about the desirability and political feasibility of redistribution across the EU for climate purposes. An EU climate fund, irrespective of whether or not it involves redistribution, would mainly benefit southern and eastern EU countries. An instrument is needed to foster green public investment in western and northern EU countries as well. The green golden rule would be such an instrument. While there are some pragmatic options to mimic a green golden rule in the current EU fiscal framework, such as amending the so-called ‘investment clause’ and adjusting the medium-term objective for the structural balance, ultimately, elements of the 2011 Six-Pack legislation and the 2012 Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance should be revised to include a green golden rules.
Topic:: Climate Change, Law, European Union, Fiscal Policy, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe

256. False Alarm over the Retreat of the Himalayan Glaciers

Author:: Swaminathan S. Anklesaria Aiyar and Vijay K. Raina
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Many activists and journalists warn that rapidly melting Himalayan glaciers due to global warming will have catastrophic consequences. The glaciers have been melting since the end of the last ice age 11,700 years ago, but the melting has not worsened recently. Satellite studies suggest that the vast majority of glaciers in the Himalayas are stable, a minority are shrinking, and a few are advancing. The retreat of the Gangotri Glacier, the source of the Ganges River, has decelerated in recent decades to 10 meters (33 feet) per year, at which rate it will last 3,000 years.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, and Glaciers
Political Geography:: Himalayas

257. Real Effects of Climate Policy: Financial Constraints and Spillovers

Author:: Söhnke M. Bartram
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Climate change is among the most intensely debated socioeconomic issues of current times. As a response to potential catastrophic risks from climate change, governments around the world are pushing for various regulations to curb greenhouse gas emissions. However, there is far from a consensus on optimal policy approaches, and as a result, climate policies are highly fragmented across the jurisdictions in which they are designed and implemented. More importantly, it is unknown whether such localized yet uncoordinated policies are able to internalize potential externalities that may impede efforts to address climate change as a global phenomenon or simply distort allocations in the economy. For example, at the beginning of 2013, California became the first and only state to put a comprehensive mandatory carbon regulation in place in the form of a cap‐and‐trade system that applies universally to all industrial greenhouse gas emissions. Exploiting the introduction of the California cap‐and‐trade rule, we investigate the internal resource‐allocation responses by firms and the real but unintended spillover effects of localized climate policies that arise from the importance of financial constraints. Our study analyzes the interplay between climate policy and firm behavior, and it informs policymakers regarding the effectiveness of climate regulation.
Topic:: Climate Change, Regulation, Economy, Business, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Global Focus

258. Caring in a changing climate: Centering care work in climate action

Author:: Seema Arora-Johnson, Maeve Cohen, and Sherilyn MacGregor
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The global care crisis is being exacerbated by the global climate emergency, with interlocking impacts that threaten lives and livelihoods in all parts of the world. These impacts are particularly severe among rural livelihoods in low-income countries. Climate change intensifies the work involved in caring for people, animals, plants, and places. It reduces the availability and quality of public services in marginalized communities and directly compounds the unfair distribution of unpaid care work that sustains gender inequality. Yet the intersections of climate change and care work have been overlooked in the development literature. Strategies for climate mitigation and adaptation have paid relatively little attention to how care work is affected by climate impacts, nor have they considered whether interventions improve or intensify the situation of carers. Instead, when designing “gender-sensitive” climate actions, the focus has been largely on women’s economic empowerment as opposed to alleviating or transforming existing distributions of care work. The aim of this report is to fill a knowledge gap by examining the points of interaction between climate change impacts and the amount, distribution, and conditions of unpaid care work. We focus on care workers rather than those who are cared for, while stressing the relational nature of care and acknowledging that carers too require care.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Environment, and Migration
Political Geography:: Global Focus

259. Carbon Pricing: A primer for Oxfam

Author:: James Morrissey
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Carbon pricing is not a new phenomenon. Backed by widespread consensus in the economic literature that it is the single most effective policy for addressing climate change, it has been the staple policy priority of many environmental non-governmental organizations (NGOs). Yet carbon pricing has seen limited uptake. Efforts to price carbon have failed in a multitude of contexts. Where they have passed, in most cases, prices have been set too low or covered too little of the economy to effectively address the challenge posed by climate change. As a result, climate advocates have come to question carbon pricing as a primary policy approach. In this context, this paper is not intended to provide novel insights into carbon pricing, nor is it intended to motivate for or against an immediate campaign priority at Oxfam. Rather, this review of carbon pricing is intended to provide a technical background on the topic, considering the concerns that are of greatest salience to Oxfam. The specific aims of the paper are to support Oxfam staff in their deliberation on whether, when, and how to engage on carbon pricing initiatives, as questions around this policy approach shift over the next 20 years. It is anticipated that such reflection would also be useful to a number of organizations whose concerns are similar to Oxfam’s.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, NGOs, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Global Focus

260. Climate change and food prices in Southeast Asia

Author:: Oxford Economics
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: Southeast Asia’s climate has become warmer, wetter and more unpredictable over the past decade. Our bespoke analysis finds that these changes in weather conditions have had a significant impact on the cost of food production in levels terms and in increased food price volatility. Specifically, a 1% increase in temperature versus a year ago is found to increase food production costs by 0.5-0.8% across Southeast Asian economies, and extreme heat events in Thailand and Vietnam in recent years have driven price spikes of 5-6%. Climate futures in which temperatures rise fastest and weather volatility increases most have the potential to generate ever-faster food price growth and greater price spikes. More stable food prices are, therefore, one key incentive for governments in the region to do their part to help the world transition toward net zero. But the sector’s intensive use of energy and logistics to produce and distribute food will mean the shift to low-carbon energy could also have major cost implications for the sector. So while prices may be more stable in a net-zero world, they will nevertheless face pressures from the transition. Fortunately, the government can explore a range of policy options to ease the cost of transition and mitigate the impact of food price volatility. These policy options encompass agricultural policy, energy efficiency, social policy, and trade and investment policies. Together with Food Industry Asia, Oxford Economics looks forward to developing this debate in the months and years ahead, building on the foundations presented in this report.
Topic:: Climate Change, Food Security, Weather, and Price
Political Geography:: Asia and Southeast Asia

261. Is there a Future for Europe

Author:: Nuno Wahnon Martins
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: At a time when the European Union and the world were discussing green agendas and combatingt the climate crisis, the war in Ukraine brought notions and principles that Europe had long since buried out of the depths of history. Suddenly, taboo subjects like defence and nuclear energy are back on the table. Does this Europe really have a future?
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, European Union, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Europe

262. Cumulative climate shocks and migratory flows: evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:: Salvatore Di Falco, Anna B. Kis, and Martina Viarengo
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:: We re-examine the effects of negative weather anomalies during the growing season on the decision to migrate in rural households in five sub-Saharan African countries. To this end we combine a multi-country household panel dataset with high-resolution gridded precipitation data. We find that while the effect of recent adverse weather shocks is on average modest, the cumulative effect of a persistent exposure to droughts over several years leads to a significant increase in the probability to migrate. The results show that more frequent adverse shocks can have more significant and long-lasting consequences in challenging economic environments.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Migration, and Drought
Political Geography:: Sub-Saharan Africa

263. Feminist Perspectives on Climate Diplomacy

Author:: Susan Harris Rimmer, Bridget Lewis, Rowena Maguire, Esther Onyango, and Maria Tanyag
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Women's Development Agency (IWDA)
Abstract:: This is the critical decade for climate action and all foreign policy interventions will be judged against this global challenge. It’s well established that Australia’s reticence to act on climate change is undermining our diplomatic relationships, particular with our near neighbours in the Pacific. As a collective action problem, climate change requires nations to look beyond their own narrowly defined interests and seek collective global solutions. Feminist foreign policy provides a lens through which we can see climate action as a shared priority, a human security issue, and one which is central to Australia’s relationships with the region. Additionally as a framework which emphasises the need for policy coherence between domestic and international issues, feminist foreign policy highlights the need for Australia to take domestic action on climate change in order to fulfil our international role. Critically, the impacts of climate change are gendered, and so the solutions must be informed by rigorous gender analysis. Feminist foreign policy, with its focus on understanding and transforming the systemic drivers of inequality and marginalization, can further our understanding of the historical contributions of nations to climate change and rebalance of the scales towards the most marginalized who face the greatest impacts.
Topic:: Climate Change, Diplomacy, Environment, and Feminism
Political Geography:: Australia

264. Too partial to work? Informal institutions in the midst of climate change and armed conflict in central Mali

Author:: Colin Walch
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: In situations characterised by armed conflict and climate change, can informal institutions resolve conflict around shrinking resources? It is widely acknowledged that low state capacity increases the likelihood of violence in the context of climate change. In such context, informal institutions should play a crucial role in preventing and mitigating violence in the absence of formal institutions. However, little is known of the characteristics of these informal institutions and existing literature on climate change and conflict has examined them in isolation from national contexts and actors. This paper seeks to address this gap and argues that impartiality is essential for the ability of informal institutions to resolve resource-based conflict, a by-product of climate change, and prevent violence escalation. However, when institutions are partial, because of co-option by the state or other external actors, their decisions may further increase communal violence and prolong civil conflict. Partial institutions can encourage people to take justice into their own hands, and push individuals to join rebel groups offering more favourable options in redressing grievances. This theoretical argument is explored through a case study on central Mali, where partial informal institutions, in conjunction with other factors, have led to increased violence in the region.
Topic:: Climate Change, Armed Conflict, and Informal Institutions
Political Geography:: Africa and Mali

265. Hydro-geopolitics and conflicts among the ‘traditional states’ of the Nun River Basin, Ndop Plain (North-West Cameroon)

Author:: Godwill Kungso Ndzofoa Eno
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: The Nun River Basin (NRB) has a long history of cross-border conflicts, mostly connected to the impact of climate change on water sources and resources. This article discusses the link between water politics and conflicts among the traditional communities in the NRB. Water scarcity and floods have led to border conflicts among the “traditional states” at the drier edges and in the marshes of the NRB. Initial mappings to determine geopolitical and water security contexts helped identify the areas, including firstly, Bamali, Bamunka, Babungo and Baba I, with maritime border conflicts, and secondly the Babessi and Baba I floods, with access in the NRB. Based on our findings and analysis of existing sources and critical interviews, the recognised and unrecognised links that bind water to the regional politics and relations among the fondoms are central to the conflicts related to the control of water sources and the fertile rice cultivation marshes. The article concludes that although the “traditional states” have been in mutual competition, where food needs accelerate in response to rising populations and economic interest, the traditional method of conflict resolution through consensus has been most effective in achieving peace in the region.
Topic:: Climate Change, Water, Conflict, Borders, Hydro-geopolitics, and Traditional States
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

266. Agenda for change 2022: Shaping a different future for our nation

Author:: Gill Savage, Peter Jennings, John Coyne, Malcolm Davis, and Robert Glasser
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: In line with previous Agenda for Change publications from 2016 and 2019, this piece is being released in anticipation of a federal election as a guide for the next government within its first months and over the full term. Our 2022 agenda acknowledges that an economically prosperous and socially cohesive Australia is a secure and resilient Australia. ASPI’s Agenda for change 2019: strategic choices for the next government did, to a great extent, imagine a number of those challenges, including in Peter Jennings’ chapter on ‘The big strategic issues’. But a lot has changed since 2019. It was hard to imagine the dislocating impacts of the Black Summer fires, Covid-19 in 2020 and then the Delta and Omicron strains in 2021, trade coercion from an increasingly hostile China, or the increasingly uncertain security environment. Fast forward to today and that also applies to the policies and programs we need to position us in a more uncertain and increasingly dangerous world. Our Agenda for change 2022 acknowledges that what might have served us well in the past won’t serve us well in this world of disruption. In response, our authors propose a smaller number of big ideas to address the big challenges of today and the future. Under the themes of getting our house in order and Australia looking outward, Agenda for change 2022 focuses on addressing the strategic issues from 2021 and beyond.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Climate Change, National Security, Cybersecurity, Economy, Space, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:: Australia

267. The geopolitics of climate and security in the Indo-Pacific

Author:: Robert Glasser, Anastasia Kapetas, and Cathy Johnstone
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: Climate change is much more than an environmental crisis—it’s a systemic crisis that will transform the geopolitical landscape. And the consequences for the Indo-Pacific, already the most exposed region in the world to climate hazards and home to the world’s fastest growing populations, economies and geopolitical rivalries, will be profound. In this volume, leading experts explore the impacts of this rapidly emerging climate threat on regional systems by interrogating a 1.5°C 2035 climate change scenario developed by the ASPI Climate and Security Policy Centre. The chapters here attempt to understand the unpredictable effects of climate change on the region’s already fragile human systems, from great-power competition and militaries, governance and politics, food and water insecurity, and ethnic separatism, to energy and trade systems, sovereign risk and digital disinformation. What emerges is a vivid demonstration of the dangers of underestimating the systemic connections between those factors, including how risks in one thematic area amplify risks in others, completely reshaping the regional security picture.
Topic:: Climate Change, National Security, Geopolitics, and Risk
Political Geography:: Indo-Pacific

268. The Offsetting Mechanism in Guangdong Province’s ETS: Lessons Learned and the Way Forward

Author:: Yang Shu
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: As one of the first low-carbon pioneering provinces in China, Guangdong launched its carbon market in 2013. An important design feature of the Guangdong Province emissions trading system (ETS) has been the use of offset credits. This brief, in both Chinese and English, explores the Guangdong ETS’s offset mechanism and its possible future evolution. The brief builds on discussions in an online research workshop on Guangdong Province’s ETS, conducted June 16 – 17, 2021 by the Harvard Project on Climate Agreements and the Research Center for Climate Change, Guangdong University of Technology, directed by Professor Zeng Xuelan. Information on the workshop, including the agenda, participant list, and most presentations, is here. The Harvard Project’s initiative on Guangdong Province’s ETS is supported by Energy Foundation China.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Asia-Pacific

269. Increasing the Emissions-Reduction Efficiency of Carbon Trading Schemes in China Under the “30.60” Target: Reflection on the Carbon Markets of Guangdong Province, China

Author:: Chen Shaoqing
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Key Points: • Guangdong currently has two pilot carbon-emissions-trading markets (in Shenzhen — and in Guangzhou, for the remainder of Guangdong Province). The Guangdong—Hong Kong—Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) carbon market will be established in the near future. Therefore, Guangdong Province has regional advantages in innovation in the low-carbon field. • In September 2020, China announced its intention to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. To meet its responsibilities under the “30.60” target, GBA needs to choose a less costly and more efficient way to reduce emissions, build resilience to climate impacts, and promote green economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. • In terms of accounting methods, life-cycle accounting from production and consumption perspectives should be the methodological basis for cities, parks, and enterprises to participate in carbon trading. • Trading activity in China’s carbon markets needs to be increased. In the future, carbon markets can gradually be opened to small and medium-sized enterprises and individuals, and cross-border trade can also be included in carbon trading mechanisms, with proper risk management. • At present, carbon quotas in local pilots and the national market are allocated freely. In the future, a reasonable mix of auctioned allocation and free allocation can be considered to establish a transparent, fair, and dynamic carbon-quota-allocation mechanism. • After starting with the electricity industry, the national carbon market will continue to include other key high-carbon industries; China should seek balanced development between local pilots and the national carbon market to improve the efficiency of emission reduction.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Carbon Emissions, and Air Pollution
Political Geography:: Asia-Pacific

270. Toward an Integrated North American Emergency Response System

Author:: Juliette N. Kayyem
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Disasters and emergencies have never respected borders, and current climate and development trends are only generating greater challenges for emergency management across North America. Natural disasters are evolving: wildfires are growing in frequency and intensity, advancing across borders, destroying forests, homes, and croplands; hurricanes increase in strength and travel trajectory, reaching farther north and leaving greater destruction in their wake; lengthy droughts persist, which fuel greater fire danger and present an urgent water problem for municipalities and agriculture; and environmental migration is a growing reality. Simultaneously, population growth increases demand for housing, services, food, mobility, and more. Additionally, the next pandemic and human-made disasters, whether terrorist in origin or stemming from the cross-border movement of dangerous substances, must remain a planning and response priority. The rapidly intensifying effects of climate change, the increased globalization and potential spread of infectious disease outbreaks, and the rise in both the threat and impact of disruption to technology or infrastructure pose an expanded risk across North America. As the risk profile evolves, so does the need for improved coordination among the United States, Mexico, and Canada. Although the need for collaboration is clear, the distinct federal systems that operate in each country and their politics complicate intergovernmental collaboration, as do the different roles that national, regional, and private corporations can and should play across all of these separate jurisdictions. Each lever of power, governmental or private sector, provides a unique set of capabilities, yet none can address these urgent issues alone. To meet these challenges, North America must progress beyond the historic approach to cross- border emergency management, which has consisted primarily of sharing information, to a more systemic and operational cooperation. Establishing a North American approach is a key component to more comprehensive and effective emergency management structured to meet current and emerging threats. This paper briefly examines the history of emergency response coordination among the United States, Mexico, and Canada, highlighting some of the major bilateral, regional and non-governmental agreements. It analyzes the challenges in emergency response and the resulting shortfalls of existing agreements, as well as considering lessons from COVID-19 pandemic. These historic and current deficiencies support the creation of a more robust tri-lateral agreement to deal with the pressing nature of evolving emergency response threats in the future. The paper concludes with recommendations on how to adapt the current emergency response systems to function as a North American Emergency Response Compact.
Topic:: Climate Change, Natural Disasters, Homeland Security, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:: North America

271. Compound Gender-Climate-Security Threats and Vulnerabilities within the Indo-Pacific

Author:: Maryruth Belsey Priebe
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: In 2021, signs of climate change intensification were evident in unprecedented wildfires, floods, cyclones, landslides, suggesting that climate-security threats are intensifying as well. Home to several rising powers and strategic trading partners, the Indo-Pacific is a vital region for the United States, yet it is one of the most vulnerable regions in terms of climate threats. A McKinsey report states that, “Asia stands out as being more exposed to physical climate risk than other parts of the world in the absence of adaptation and mitigation.”[1] Other research has shown that Asian countries have the highest numbers of people exposed to climate hazards such as floods, droughts, and storms.[2] Climate change is an emerging security risk, and one that deserves greater study given the significant diversity of security and climate scenarios. In particular, the role of women as sources of climate security intelligence has been understudied. This paper aims to correct that oversight and assess which countries within the Indo-Pacific have the greatest combined gender-climate-security risk factors and why. A detailed breakdown of data from several indices related to fragility, gender inequality, conflict, and climate change is summarized for all countries within the area covered by the US Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) in Table 1. Using this data, this paper examines in greater depth Bangladesh, Fiji, Indonesia, Myanmar, Philippines, and Vietnam—due to their diversity in environmental conditions and political conditions—to determine their specific gender-climate-security challenges. This paper begins with an overview of a gender-climate-security framework, provides focus country assessments, examines US INDOPACOM’s greatest vulnerabilities, and explores ways in which women may act as bellwethers of emerging climate-related conflicts if meaningfully and consistently consulted.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Vulnerability, and Gender
Political Geography:: Indo-Pacific

272. We Will Build the Future: A Plan to Save the Planet

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: Under the leadership of the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America – People’s Trade Treaty (ALBA-TCP), Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research partnered with 26 research institutes from around the world to draft A Plan to Save the Planet. This living, evolving document puts forward a vision for the present and the immediate future centred on twelve key themes: democracy and the world order, the environment, finance, health, housing, food, education, work, care, women, culture, and the digital world. Dossier no. 48 includes and elaborates on the Plan and lays out our orientation, principles, and horizon.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Regional Cooperation, and Green Technology
Political Geography:: Global Focus

273. Sea Change for Europe’s Security Order: Three Future Scenarios

Author:: Christian Mölling, Tyson Barker, David Hagebölling, Afra Herr, and Kai Kornhuber
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: The war of aggression that Russia launched against Ukraine in February has destroyed the European security order. The German government has defined this moment as a sea change (Zeitenwende) for its foreign and security policy. It still must envisage and shape a new order. Key factors are whether Europe will be united in strategic policy areas, and how Russia will position itself.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Science and Technology, European Union, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Central Asia, and Eastern Europe

274. Integrating Climate in Germany’s National Security Strategy: How to Avoid Being Derailed by Russia’s Aggression

Author:: Tim Bosch and Kira Vinke
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: The uneven distribution of climate impacts and emissions has long hindered a coherent international response to climate change. Moreover, given the return of great power politics, revisionist powers appear ready to weaponize the dependencies that result from attempting to address such challenges multilaterally – even at the expense of their own long-term security. Although the need to respond to Russia’s war in Ukraine has made the political case for fighting climate change harder to make, Germany must prioritize climate as a collective, global dimension of its security as it drafts its National Security Strategy (NSS).
Topic:: Climate Change, National Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

275. US-Korea Cooperation on Climate Change

Author:: Troy Stangarone
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Troy Stangarone, Senior Director and Fellow, Korea Economic Institute of America, explains that "the United States and South Korea have taken steps domestically to reduce their emissions, while making climate change an important part of their efforts to expand the US-Korea alliance beyond traditional security and economic issues."
Topic:: Climate Change, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Carbon Emissions, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

276. Taiwan’s Big and Clean Bets: Towards Green Cooperation

Author:: Wen-Yu Weng
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Wen-Yu Weng, Clean Energy and Climate Response Expert at PA Consulting, explains that "the future of Taiwan’s energy transition lies in making big bets in highly creative and highly technical approaches" and green energy "policy needs to embrace the fundamentally decentralized and democratized nature of solution-generation, agenda-setting, and experimental models."
Topic:: Climate Change, International Cooperation, Energy, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Taiwan and Asia

277. Fighting for Sustainable Solutions and Greener Governance in India

Author:: Disha Ravi
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: Disha Ravi is a climate activits and a founder of Fridays For Future, a youth- led global climate strike movement that fights to stop climate change and address climate justice and equity.
Topic:: Climate Change, Governance, Interview, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

278. Pipelines and Protests: Legacies of Struggle and Resistance in the Fight Against Environmental Racism in Canada

Author:: Ingrid Waldron
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: Canada was founded on enslavement and dispossession. This is most ex- emplified by its assimilationist ideologies and policies, by the displacement, subjugation, and oppression of Indigenous and Black peoples and cultures, and by the expropriation of Indigenous lands. The colonial theft of land and accumulation of capital have been foundational to Canada’s wealth. New op- portunities for Europeans to access resources prompted colonization in North America, which was followed by the creation of a global economy that came to be dominated by Spain, Portugal, Holland, France, and Britain. To access lands in the Americas, Europeans negotiated treaties, dispossessed Indigenous peoples of their lands, waged war to extinguish Indigenous populations, and eliminated or disrupted Indigenous landholding traditions.1 The unique ways in which Black and Indigenous people have been racialized and implicated in white set- tler nations and by capitalist expansion reveal the antithetical roles both groups have played in the formation of settler colonial societies. For example, while the reproduction of Black slaves in the United States was perceived as positive since it increased slave owners’ wealth, the growth of Indigenous populations was seen to jeopardize the accumulation of profit by slave owners because it made access to land more difficult.2
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Protests, Pipeline, and Racism
Political Geography:: Canada and North America

279. Cleaning Up Dirty Industries: Strategies for a Greener Future

Author:: Deborah Gordon
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: Deborah Gordon is Senior Principal in the Climate Intelligence Program at RMI (formerly Rocky Mountain Institute). She also serves as Senior Fellow at the Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University. She formerly served as Director of the Energy and Climate Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. She is the author of several books, including No Standard Oil: Managing Abundant Petroleum in a Warm- ing World, Oxford University Press, 2021. After beginning her career with Chevron, Gordon managed an energy and environmental consulting practice, taught at the Yale School of the Environment, and directed the Energy Policy Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Pollution, Industry, and Future
Political Geography:: Global Focus

280. Cumulative Climate Shocks and Migratory Flows: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:: Salvatore Di Falco, Anna B. Kis, and Martina Viarengo
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Environmental Studies, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:: We re-examine the effects of negative weather anomalies during the growing season on the decision to migrate in rural households in five sub-Saharan African countries. To this end we combine a multi-country household panel dataset with high-resolution gridded precipitation data. We find that while the effect of recent adverse weather shocks is on average modest, the cumulative effect of a persistent exposure to droughts over several years leads to a significant increase in the probability to migrate. The results show that more frequent adverse shocks can have more significant and long-lasting consequences in challenging economic environments.
Topic:: Climate Change, Migration, Urban, Rural, and Economic Development
Political Geography:: Sub-Saharan Africa

281. A Primer on the 2022 National Security Strategy

Author:: Peter Juul and Heba Malik
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: The 2022 National Security Strategy introduces new ideas on navigating strategic competition with China and Russia, investing at home, and a renewed focus on the fight against climate change.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, National Security, Rivalry, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

282. How the Inflation Reduction Act Will Drive Global Climate Action

Author:: Frances Colon, Cassidy Childs, and Anne Christianson
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: The Inflation Reduction Act puts the United States on track to meeting its Paris Agreement commitment and to reclaiming the mantle of global climate leadership.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, International Cooperation, and Inflation
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

283. How New Export Control Will Affect Food Security in Azerbaijan?

Author:: Emin Mammadov
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:: The ongoing climate change and recent geopolitical tensions could spark a global food crisis with simultaneous disruptions to supply-chain systems that drive up the economic shock waves throughout the world. Following the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the upsurge in the price of agricultural commodities and broken supply chains are undeniably vivid. Both countries are exporters of vital commodities such as wheat, oil, corn, sunflower oil and corn, and disturbances to production affect the import-reliant countries.
Topic:: Climate Change, Food Security, Geopolitics, Exports, Supply Chains, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Azerbaijan

284. US Commitments in Nutrition and Health for a Better Future

Author:: Gloria Dabek, Catherine Bertini, Dan Glickman, and Samanta Dunford
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: The United States has made big pledges for global nutrition. Our white paper offers recommendations to turn commitments into action. Approximately 768 million people faced hunger in 2020, over 100 million more than 2019, and the number of those without sufficient nutrients is even higher. In the United States, diet-related disease accounted for over half of all deaths in 2018. Globally, approximately 45 percent of the deaths of children younger than five are related to undernutrition. For decades, the United States has also experienced a rise in chronic diet-related diseases like diabetes, with disproportionate effects seen in communities of color. And as the COVID-19 pandemic has illustrated the link between nutrition and both risk and long-term consequences of pathogen infection, urgency to shift governmental nutrition approaches has never been higher. To strengthen domestic and global nutrition, the United States should catalyze critical change, starting with commitments made at the 2021 UN Food Systems Summit and additional funded programs, extending further to reach a wider subset of all people suffering from nutrition- and hunger-related diseases. This white paper analyzes primary nutrition challenges, particularly issues of health, access, and education, and recommends policy actions that community, federal, private, and academic institutions can take domestically and globally to progress toward a well-nourished future.
Topic:: Agriculture, Climate Change, Environment, Food, and Global Health
Political Geography:: North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

285. From Climate Pledges to Transformative Action

Author:: Julia Whiting and Ertharin Cousin
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: Can the United States deliver on its food systems and climate commitments? We offer recommendations to protect the planet and feed the world. The momentous 2021 global convenings on food, climate change, and nutrition—the United Nations Food Systems Summit (UNFSS), United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26), and the Nutrition for Growth Summit—each prompted new initiatives and funding commitments. But promises alone, no matter how bold or big, are not enough to transform the global food system, end hunger, and prevent climate catastrophe. Acknowledging the unprecedented potential of recent commitments and international attention given to food systems and climate change, the Chicago Council on Global Affairs convened an expert roundtable with representatives from the private, public, academic, and nonprofit sectors to move beyond abstract goals to identify concrete actionable steps for US agrifood stakeholders. This paper outlines three key areas for action that were identified through the roundtable and offers recommendations to the private sector, donor community, civil society, academia, and government.
Topic:: Agriculture, Climate Change, Environment, and Food
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

286. Environmental Activism in Russia

Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: The Harriman Institute
Abstract:: Our panel of distinguished experts will discuss the growing environmental activism movement in Russia. We will be joined by both academics and activists who will explore the unique challenges that environmental activists have faced and continue to endure in Russia. They will also assess the results achieved to date by the Russian environmentalist movement, both from those operating within the country and those abroad.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, and Activism
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

287. Green peace: How Europe’s climate policy can survive the war in Ukraine

Author:: Susi Dennison
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: Russia’s war on Ukraine has weakened European governments’ commitment to EU climate goals. European leaders should intensify their efforts to build clean, sustainable energy security in practice – not just in theory. They should also address the climate challenge as a matter of EU – rather than national – energy sovereignty. Europeans will be locked into longer-term carbon dependency and unable to benefit from economies of scale if they only operate nationally. Strong thought leadership will be needed to achieve this change of mindset. France has an opportunity to build bridges between groups of member states, working alongside the upcoming presidencies of the EU. Denmark, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Portugal, and Austria are all willing partners in this, as they are already cooperating to implement the European Green Deal.
Topic:: Climate Change, European Union, Leadership, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

288. Early warning: How Iraq can adapt to climate change

Author:: Nussaibah Younis
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: Iraq is at high risk of suffering the worst effects of the climate crisis, including soaring temperatures and acute water scarcity. As land suitable for farming shrinks and rural jobs disappear, ordinary Iraqis are moving to cities in search of work. This increases pressure on services, pushes up food prices, and exacerbates social tensions, leading to protests and even violence. Iraq’s weak internal governance prevents it from improving water management, managing inter-provincial and inter-tribal conflict, and attracting investment and expertise to create new green-economy jobs and adapt to the changing climate. Public awareness of climate risks is growing, but too few political leaders prioritise the issue. Iraq has long struggled to reach agreement on water issues with upstream states Turkey and Iran, which are building dams that affect supply to Iraq; they also believe that Iraq manages water badly. Similar issues complicate relations between Baghdad and the Kurdistan region. Iraqis and Europeans should work together to improve Iraq’s poor governance and consider measures such as establishing an ‘early warning’ system about potential conflict arising from climate effects.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Politics, and Governance
Political Geography:: Iraq, Europe, and Middle East

289. Against the flow: Europe’s role in kickstarting Algeria’s green transition

Author:: Andrew Farrand
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: Russia’s war on Ukraine has reshaped European energy markets and lent new urgency to the EU’s decarbonisation plans, altering the incentives of the bloc’s energy partners. Surging demand for Algeria’s oil and gas exports has temporarily undercut pressure for domestic reform, including in the energy sector. But growing local energy consumption and European plans to reduce fossil fuel imports in favour of renewables threaten Algeria’s rentier system. The country’s leaders have taken only minimal steps to build renewable energy capacity and remain fixated on raising hydrocarbon investment. While Algeria has little spare capacity to increase its hydrocarbon exports in the short term, it holds far more promise for Europe as a long-term partner in renewable energy. Europe’s ambitious climate goals, deep pockets, and technical expertise make it well placed to help Algeria kick-start a robust energy transition – if the country chooses to go along. At a high-level energy dialogue this month, EU and Algerian officials will convene for the first of many discussions to reshape the future of their energy partnership.
Topic:: Climate Change, Oil, European Union, Gas, Exports, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Europe and Algeria

290. A new climate for peace: How Europe can promote environmental cooperation between the Gulf Arab states and Iran

Author:: Cinzia Bianco
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: The process of de-escalation between Iran and Gulf Arab states is fragile and could collapse if efforts to revive the Iran nuclear deal fail. A platform for dialogue on climate and environmental security may be one of the few politically feasible ways to strengthen and sustain diplomatic channels between Iran and Gulf monarchies. The Middle East is very exposed to climate change and faces challenges including water scarcity, air pollution and sandstorms, rising temperatures, and extreme weather events. Europeans should proactively support a regional platform to address climate issues as a means of advancing their interests in de-escalation, asserting their influence in an increasingly multipolar region, and fulfilling climate and environmental security commitments. European initiatives should highlight the merits of regional cooperation, focusing on diplomacy, joint scientific research, capacity building, and strategic investment.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Environment, and Cooperation
Political Geography:: Europe, Iran, and Gulf Nations

291. We’ll always have Paris: How to adapt multilateral climate cooperation to new realities

Author:: Anthony Dworkin and Mats Engström
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: Ahead of COP27, multilateral climate negotiations are stalling due to geopolitical tensions, distrust between the global south and high-income countries, and concerns about energy supplies. It is necessary to move faster in implementing emissions-reduction measures, but the need for consensus in the global climate process makes this difficult. At the same time, drivers of action on climate change are evolving, with countries now competing for economic advantage in new green technologies. The EU and its partners are right to combine negotiations under the UN climate convention with initiatives that bring together like-minded and ambitious countries to accelerate industrial transformation. To be effective and legitimate, these efforts should remain rooted in the multilateral system and incorporate substantial climate funding for emerging markets and lower-income countries. EU institutions and member states should also work to strengthen the capacity of multilateral institutions to support efforts on climate change.
Topic:: Climate Change, International Cooperation, European Union, Multilateralism, and Paris Agreement
Political Geography:: Global Focus

292. EU – Pacific Talks: H2 – Hydrogen Hype

Author:: David Plhák
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:: Czechia is in many respects similar to Japan in its limited ability to rely fully on renewables. It is therefore in the interest of Czechia to increase hydrogen imports and its use in the energy mix. In order to ensure a steady supply of hydrogen the gas system operators of Czechia, Slovakia, Ukraine, and Germany launched in 2021 joined initiative to create a Central European Hydrogen corridor in an effort to create a supply of hydrogen from Ukraine. Unfortunately, given the Russian aggression on Ukraine, this project must be stopped, until Ukraine will be free of war again.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, European Union, Economy, and Hydrogen
Political Geography:: Japan, Ukraine, Germany, Asia-Pacific, Slovakia, European Union, and Czechia

293. Hydrogen and Its Role in Post-Pandemic Recovery. Case Study of Portugal

Author:: Maciej Giers
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: The article aims to analyse the potential role that hydrogen could play in the post-pandemic recovery of Portugal and its climate policy. The article focuses on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and creating new workplaces. The basis for analysis is the Portuguese hydrogen strategy, published in May 2020 and other strategic documents. In the first part of the article, climate goals adopted by the European Union and Portugal are described and analysed. Then the hydrogen strategy of Portugal was analysed from the perspective of hydrogen contribution to the emission reduction by 2030. The article describes the role of hydrogen in the Portuguese economy, paying particular attention to the 2020–2030 horizon, but also covers a period till 2040. The second part analyses the impact of COVID-19 on the Portuguese economy. Based on the International Energy Agency’s estimates, the potential for creating new workplaces is described.
Topic:: Climate Change, Recovery, Pandemic, COVID-19, Hydrogen, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Europe and Portugal

294. What Next for Climate and Security at the UN Security Council: Ireland's View

Author:: Simon Coveney
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Before Ireland assumed its seat as an elected member of the United Nations Security Council in January last year, I, together with colleagues and advisors, reflected on what our priorities would be. As a Minister with two portfolios, for Foreign Affairs and for Defence, it was clear that global security in this century cannot be contemplated without a climate lens.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Global Focus, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:: Europe and Ireland

295. Behavior Change in the Face of Disaster Risk Finance

Author:: Theodore Ezike
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:: Large-scale Disaster Risk Finance (DRF) mechanisms are relatively new tools in the field of humanitarian assistance and anticipatory action that can have significant positive effects on disaster recovery. However, there is a lack of analysis on how DRF can affect behavior or risk perception, which is important for countries to understand. Drawing on findings from similar programs, such as community health and microfinance, provided insights on areas where DRF may have impact on behavior. The available research indicates that disasters make people risk averse and that insurance and other DRF mechanisms can enable beneficial outcomes. Trust in public institutions, ideally the ones that manage DRF, alongside accurate and timely information from government or other relevant actors, is needed for acceptable levels of risk to be communicated and for appropriate corresponding actions to be taken.
Topic:: Climate Change, Finance, Disaster Management, and Humanitarian Response
Political Geography:: Global Focus

296. Analysis of the Short-Term and Long-Term Impacts of the Coronavirus Crisis on International Climate Policyt

Author:: Zehra Askinsena Ilkilic and Manuel Andreas Knoll
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Alternative Politics
Institution:: Department of International Relations, Abant Izzet Baysal University, Turkey
Abstract:: The coronavirus pandemic has caused far-reaching precautionary measures around the world. Governments’ attempts to get the coronavirus under control have led to the negligence of other important policy areas. Climate policy in particular has been significantly influenced and lost importance on the political agendas of states after the outbreak. Over time, the coronavirus will either disappear or lose its initial impact due to medical measures. Two years after the outbreak of the coronavirus, this paper aims to analyse and evaluate the short-term and long-term impacts of the coronavirus crisis on international climate policy. It is important to analyse how it has shaped international climate policy and what lessons can be learned for dealing with climate change. The analysis is based on the principles and regular functioning of the International Climate Change Regime.
Topic:: Climate Change, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: Global Focus

297. Origins and prospects of climate change activism in the Arab region: Rethinking the development and market economy model

Author:: Habib Maalouf
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: The 1992 Rio de Janeiro Earth Summit triggered interest in climate change globally as well as in the Arab region. This paper traces the development of environmental activism in the MENA region since then and puts forward proposals for what Arab civil society, media and governments can do ahead of the forthcoming COP summits in Egypt and the UAE.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Economics, Environment, and Activism
Political Geography:: Arab Countries

298. Who Benefits from Tunisia's Green Hydrogen Strategy?

Author:: Aida Delpuech
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: As the global energy sector sought to revamp itself over recent years, several countries around the world have joined a race toward green hydrogen –labelled “energy of the future”. Unlike grey hydrogen, made by fossil fuels (natural gas) and a significant source of greenhouse gases,1 2 green hydrogen is generated by electrolysis whereby water is split using electricity from renewable energy sources. The combustion of 1kg of this gas produces almost four times more energy than one kilogram of gasoline.3 In 2021, the production of green hydrogen produced represents only 5% of the 94 million tons of overall produced hydrogen globally.4 However, this quantity is bound to rise, given the various strategies developed in the post-Covid economic recovery plans or by strategies to power Europe with alternatives to Russian gas.5 While a global market for green hydrogen is being shaped, Tunisia launched in early 2022 the development of its very own national strategy for green hydrogen to be finalized by 2024. The country has already announced that it will prioritise export6 of this green fuel over local use.7 “Promoting green hydrogen, a growing market in today’s world, is very important to Tunisia,” affirmed GIZ, 8 the Tunisian government’s lead partner in this strategy development project. Although the Tunisian Ministry of Energy has made green hydrogen one of its projects of high importance, civil society, scientists, and potentially affected communities have so far been left out of all conversations. Hence, the country misses a chance to map out eventual risks, environmental and social concerns and to address emerging concerns from the outset. The large-scale production – powered by solar and wind energy megaprojects – requires vast mobilization of several types of resources along the entire production chain of this fuel. When the Ministry of Energy asserts that: “these projects do not entail obvious negative impacts on the environment,” nothing is less verified than such statement. Current discussions focus mainly on Tunisia’s position in this emerging global market, but they rarely touch on the social and environmental costs of this type of major projects. Nonetheless, multiple studies9 were published more recently, warning of the impact of these projects on natural resources – water, land, etc. – in countries heavily affected by climate change. In addition, the benefit of this new sector is questionable in terms of Tunisia’s climate commitments. To this day, the country depends as much as 97% on Algerian gas to produce electricity10 and the energy transition has stagnated. However, it plans to export the bulk of the green hydrogen potentially produced on Tunisian soil mainly to Europe, This was confirmed in interviews and meetings in the context of this report While green hydrogen is a more preferable alternative than more polluting options, its mass production would primarily benefit the energy needs of Europe. This raises another fundamental issue as it is replicating an extractivist model oriented towards international export markets and build on the overexploitation of natural resources. To develop a green hydrogen production strategy, Tunisian authorities along with their European partners, namely Germany, seek to prolong the exploitation of resources of neighbouring countries without sufficiently considering the energy needs of locals, the social and environmental risks, the fact that Tunisia is a water stressed country or the financial debt resulting from such investments.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Green Technology, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Africa and Tunisia

299. Legal Aspect of The Concept of Climate Refugee: Evaluation of Existent Protection Tools and Suggested Solutions

Author:: Neva Övünç Öztürk
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: Even though it can be accepted at the first glance that such kind of migrations can be considered within the scope of “forced migration” in sociological terms due to the compelling effect of environmental reasons on migration, tools offered by international law for forced migration fall short of protecting “climate refugees” in practice.
Topic:: Climate Change, Law, Refugees, Justice, and Protection
Political Geography:: Global Focus

300. Green Systems and Resilient Cities

Author:: Ali Faruk Göksu
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: Comprehensive and participatory solutions that take into account the inadequacy of familiar approaches and methods in the solution of global problems such as climate change, migration, poverty, epidemic etc. should be developed with an approach that focuses on designing the process. The process should embrace steps towards understanding the current system and problems well; planning strategies within the framework of future predictions, and designing solutions to primary problems and strategies.
Topic:: Climate Change, Migration, Poverty, Governance, and Cities
Political Geography:: Global Focus

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS