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  • Publication Date: 01-2021
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
  • Abstract: Britain has effectively left the EU after long and tiresome negotiations. But the implications of Brexit have not transpired completely as the aftershocks may be felt within Britain itself in the form of increased desire for independence in Scotland; and London may fail to establish trade agreements that can compensate for its exit from the EU.
  • Topic: European Union, Economy, Brexit, Trade
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe, Scotland
  • Author: Dong-Hee Joe
  • Publication Date: 04-2021
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
  • Abstract: Immigration is one of the factors often considered as the causes of Brexit. Researchers find evidences that regions with more immigrants from the new member states of the European Union (EU hereinafter) in eastern Europe tended to vote more in favor of Brexit in the 2016 referendum. Similar relations between the size of immigrant population and anti-immigration attitudes or far-right voting are found in other richer EU member states. A common explanation for this relation is the concern that immigrants negatively affect the outcome in the host labor market. Immigration is drawing attention in Korea too. Although immigrants' share in population is still substantially smaller in Korea than in the EU, its increase is noticeable. Also, certain industries in Korea are known to be already heavily reliant on immigrant labor. Recently, as entry into the country was tightened due to the COVID-19 pandemic, firms and farms are reported to have faced a disruption in production. This trend of increasing presence of immigrants in population and in the labor market, vis-à-vis the low fertility rate and rapid aging in Korea, is raising interest and concern on the socioeconomic impact of immigration. To offer some reference for the debates related to immigration in Korea, KIEP researchers (Joe et al. 2020 and Joe and Moon 2021) look at the EU, where immigrants' presence was much higher from much earlier on, and where the greater heterogeneity among the immigrants allows for richer analyses. This World Economy Brief presents some of their findings that are salient for Korea.
  • Topic: Immigration, European Union, Brexit, Labor Market
  • Political Geography: Britain, Europe, Asia, Korea
  • Author: Anand Menon
  • Publication Date: 01-2021
  • Content Type: Video
  • Institution: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
  • Abstract: Professor Anand Menon explains the need for social science to play a role in informing public and political debates is as great if not greater than ever, now that the UK is embarking on a new course after Brexit.
  • Topic: European Union, Brexit, Trade
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Juha Jokela, Ilari Aula
  • Publication Date: 01-2020
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The EU needs to assume more responsibility in defending its interests and security. Brexit will constitute an additional challenge for the EU in this respect, and has led to calls to strengthen the efficiency of the the Common Foreign and Security Policy, including EU sanctions, which currently form one of the toughest and most increasingly used tools in the EU’s foreign policy toolbox. The UK has been the most active and influential member state in formulating the EU’s sanctions policy. The EU could largely replace the technical expertise provided by the UK, yet the level of ambition of the EU’s sanctions policy is likely to decrease. Even though the UK has taken measures to maintain the sanctions regimes it agreed to as an EU member state, an independent UK sanctions policy could result in divergence. The envisaged coordination mechanisms between EU and UK sanctions policies can mitigate some of the negative implications of Brexit, but they cannot replace the UK’s EU membership.
  • Topic: Regional Cooperation, Sanctions, European Union, Brexit
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Manolis Kalaitzake
  • Publication Date: 11-2020
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
  • Abstract: The fate of British finance following the Brexit referendum revolves around the “resilience or relocation” debate: will the City of London continue to thrive as the world’s leading financial centre or will the bulk of its activity move to rival hubs after departure from EU trading arrangements? Despite extensive commentary, there remains no systematic analysis of this question since the Leave vote. This paper addresses that lacuna by evaluating the empirical evidence concerning jobs, investments, and share of key trading markets (between June 2016 and May 2020). Contrary to widely held expectations, the evidence suggests that the City has been remarkably resilient. Brexit has had no significant impact on jobs and London has consolidated its position as the chief location for financial FDI, FinTech funding, and attracting new firms. Most unexpectedly, the City has increased its dominance in major infrastructure markets such as (euro-denominated) clearing, derivatives, and foreign exchange – although it has lost out in the handling of European repurchase agreements. Based upon this evidence, the paper argues that the UK’s negotiating position is stronger than typically recognised, and outlines the competitive ramifications for both the UK and EU financial sector.
  • Topic: Regional Cooperation, European Union, Brexit, Urban, Local
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Geoffrey Sloan
  • Publication Date: 06-2020
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Foreign Policy Research Institute
  • Abstract: This essay draws on the author’s previous work, specifically: The Geopolitics of Anglo-Irish Relations in the 20th Century. The greatest failure of the European referendum campaign in 2016, which can be attributed to both sides, was the inability to articulate an understanding of Britain’s geopolitical relationship to Europe. By geopolitics, I do not mean its current usage: interpreted merely as a synonym for international strategic rivalry. I refer, instead, to classical geopolitics, which is a confluence of three subjects: geography, history, and strategy. It draws attention to certain geographical patterns of political history. It fuses spatial relationships and historical causation. It can produce explanations that suggest the contemporary and future political relevance of various geographical configurations.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Brexit
  • Political Geography: Britain, Europe
  • Author: Rebecca Christie, Thomas Wieser
  • Publication Date: 05-2020
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Bruegel
  • Abstract: In the negotiations between the European Union and the United Kingdom over their future relationship, we see a high probability of a weak contractual outcome, given the dominance of politics over considerations of market efficiency.
  • Topic: Markets, Governance, Europe , Brexit, Negotiation, Macroeconomics
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Michael Leigh, Beth Thompson, Reinhilde Veugelers
  • Publication Date: 01-2020
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: Bruegel
  • Abstract: This report sets out what the Wellcome Trust and Bruegel have learned from a project to simulate a negotiation process between the UK and EU to create a post-Brexit research and innovation agreement. Our negotiating scenario assumed that the UK had left the EU with a withdrawal agreement, and that the negotiation was taking place during a ‘standstill’ transition period.
  • Topic: Treaties and Agreements, Governance, European Union, Research, Brexit, Macroeconomics, Innovation, Transition
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Mark Leonard
  • Publication Date: 08-2020
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: European Council On Foreign Relations
  • Abstract: The shock of covid-19 in Britain may end the culture-wars politics set off by the Brexit referendum – which split the country between Leave and Remain, town and city, old and young. Many people had lent their votes to Boris Johnson’s Conservatives for cultural reasons, in spite of the fact that they were closer to the opposition Labour Party on economic issues. Covid-19 might cause a rethink, as voters expect competence from the government. Counterintuitively, both Leavers and Remainers are open to a leftist domestic agenda and greater cooperation with international partners – issues on which Labour is normally strong. Covid-19 has caused voters to take a dimmer view of previously touted post-Brexit trade partners like the US and China. They think more highly of countries such as Germany. The battleground will be ‘Red Wall defectors’ – voters who gave Johnson his 2019 general election landslide but who are reassessing what matters to them after Brexit. A politics divided along the lines of Leavers and Remainers could disappear as quickly as it appeared – but the Conservatives may nevertheless attempt to stoke the divisions of 2016 that secured them Brexit.
  • Topic: Politics, European Union, Brexit, COVID-19
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Danielle Piatkiewicz
  • Publication Date: 02-2020
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: Europeum Institute for European Policy
  • Abstract: In her latest EU monitor, Danielle Piatkiewicz explores the future of Central and Eastern European security after Brexit. January 31st will begin the long-awaited legal withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union. As the UK disengages politically, Europe’s existing security structure will undergo reconstruction as EU Member States reevaluate their future without the UK as active members established security including CSDP, NATO, PESCO, among others. As the UK seeks bilateral partnerships post-Brexit, steadfast security consumers like Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) should gauge how Brexit will affect their security region. With external threats mounting in the East, the CEE region relies heavily on the existing security blanket that Europe and NATO have provided. As one of the strongest European militaries, an engaged or disengaged UK will certainly affect the security environment, but it will be up to how the EU and CEE countries react and adapt, that will impact the future security of their region once Brexit takes effect.
  • Topic: Security, Regional Cooperation, European Union, Brexit
  • Political Geography: Europe, Eastern Europe, Czech Republic, Central Europe
  • Author: Roderick Parkes
  • Publication Date: 09-2020
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
  • Abstract: Brexit talks have entered extra time. If the UK is to leave the EU in an orderly manner, it needs a deal in the next four weeks. The trouble is that, as the prospect of leaving becomes more concrete, the government has finally recognized that it needs to honor the promises it has made to voters. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is struggling to reconcile his vague pledges with real world constraints – both internationally and domestically.
  • Topic: Politics, European Union, Brexit, Negotiation, Boris Johnson
  • Political Geography: Britain, Europe
  • Author: Roderick Parkes
  • Publication Date: 11-2020
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
  • Abstract: British political institutions have shown resilience during the Brexit crisis. London apparently believes it has the scope to put EU talks behind it and recalibrate its position in the world. The British government is carrying out an integrated review of defense, aid, and foreign policy and preparing its presidency of the COP26 climate talks and G7. By contrast, its neighbors are gripped by the notion of Britain’s further constitutional deterioration. Their perceptions could well become self-fulfilling.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Climate Change, Politics, Brexit, Negotiation
  • Political Geography: Britain, Europe
  • Author: Shimukunki Manchishi, Mwanda Phiri
  • Publication Date: 01-2020
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
  • Abstract: Following the Brexit referendum held in the UK in 2016 that resulted in a majority vote to leave the EU, there has been speculation and uncertainty surrounding the likely impact of Brexit on trade relations between the UK and developing countries such as Zambia. With Brexit, comes the exit of the UK from the EU, its customs union as well as the single market. Consequently, this implies that Zambia’s trade with the UK will no longer be under the ambit of the EU Everything But Arms (EBA) trade agreement which grants Zambian products other than arms, duty-free and quota-free market access to the UK. Naturally, this brings about questions of the likely impact of Brexit on trade relations between Zambia and the UK which thus far, has been determined collectively under the framework of the EU since the UK’s accession to the EU customs union. In this policy paper, we provide a contextual analysis of the same. From this, we deduce that a ‘deal’ or ‘no deal’ Brexit is not likely to adversely impact the UK’s trade with Zambia. This is on condition that the UK’s own unilateral preference scheme comes into place and in time, to replicate the EU-EBA scheme with no disruption to traders. On the Investment front, although the UK has been Zambia’s fourth-largest source country for FDI inflows over the period 2010-2017, investments have been waning. Brexit has the potential to turn things around as the UK seeks to increase investments in other jurisdictions outside of the EU. With the UK now envisioning to become the largest G7 investor in Africa by 2022, there is a high probability that Brexit could lead to a positive investment crowding in effect, provided Zambia becomes a more attractive investment destination.
  • Topic: Bilateral Relations, Brexit, Investment, Trade
  • Political Geography: Africa, United Kingdom, Europe, Zambia
  • Author: Jannike Wachowiak
  • Publication Date: 10-2020
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: European Policy Centre
  • Abstract: As the end of the transition period nears, the EU must prepare for a fundamentally different and more conflictual relationship with the UK. Whatever the outcome of the Brexit negotiations, there will be profound economic, political and geopolitical implications for the EU. While the EU as a whole might be better placed than the UK to absorb the economic shock of a no-deal, the fallout within the EU will be uneven, resulting in winners and losers. The asymmetrical impact and differential capacity and willingness of national governments to mitigate the shock could exacerbate regional disparities and unbalance the EU’s internal level playing field. As such, it might become more difficult to maintain the same level of EU unity post-no-deal.
  • Topic: Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Brexit
  • Political Geography: Britain, Europe
  • Author: Robert Cox
  • Publication Date: 05-2020
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: American Diplomacy
  • Abstract: Amid the toil and trouble of their own politics Americans might have a moment to note the self-flagellation of their closest European ally. There’s more to come – and the US is going to be drawn into it, whether it likes it or not. Coronavirus has now temporarily obscured the Brexit issue while arguably inflicting upon the European Union the greatest strains since its creation. A stricken EU helps nobody.
  • Topic: Diplomacy, European Union, Brexit, Transatlantic Relations
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe, United States of America, North America
  • Author: Angelica Szucko
  • Publication Date: 09-2020
  • Content Type: Journal Article
  • Journal: Contexto Internacional
  • Institution: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
  • Abstract: On 25 March 2017, the European Union celebrated the 60th anniversary of the Treaties of Rome, which established ‘an ever-closer union’ as a fundamental principle for European region- al integration. Only four days later, the United Kingdom delivered an official letter triggering its withdrawal process from the Community. How could we comprehend Brexit integrative and dis- integrative dynamics to the EU? The UK’s decision to leave the EU alongside recent crises in the Community and the spread of Eurosceptic movements fostered studies about disintegration dynam- ics. This article presents the current debate about differentiated (dis)integration based on up-to-date related literature. Next, it proposes a framework to assess the recent shifts in the UK-EU relationship and its contradictory effects on the EU project. The main argument of the paper is that the UK’s relationship with the European Union moved from an internal differentiated integration to a pro- posal of internal differentiated disintegration and, thereafter, to a process of external differentiated disintegration. Moreover, although Brexit means disintegration by one Member State, its effects on the EU project are mixed, initially promoting an integrative boom among the EU27 members, while at the same time neglecting disintegrating forces that could undermine the traditional European integration model.
  • Topic: Regional Cooperation, European Union, Brexit, Integration
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Katy Hayward, Ben Rosher
  • Publication Date: 06-2020
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
  • Abstract: 2019 was a year of tremendous political significance in Northern Ireland in terms of what failed to happen. On-off talks between the DUP and Sinn Féin went nowhere and the Assembly Chamber in Stormont remained empty for a third year. Theresa May’s Withdrawal Agreement failed to be passed by the House of Commons and so the UK remained an EU member-state into the new year. This Research Update by Katy Hayward and Ben Rosher highlights public attitudes relevant to the political challenges in Northern Ireland, based on data from the 2019 Northern Ireland Life and Times (NILT) survey.
  • Topic: Politics, Elections, Brexit
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe, Northern Ireland
  • Author: Anand Menon, Catherine Barnard, John Connolly, Arno Van Der Zwet
  • Publication Date: 06-2020
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
  • Abstract: Brexit has been a steep learning curve for all of us. It has forced us to wrap our heads around a number of issues – Article 50, statutory instruments, rules of origin, business motions in the House of Commons and the rest – with which we were, at best, only vaguely familiar. Fish and fisheries is another such issue. Absurd though it may seem, as the formal Brexit process reaches its endgame, fisheries might yet be the issue that determines whether the negotiations succeed or fail. Consequently, we at the UK in a Changing Europe have put together this short report to try to explain the basics about a sector that is frequently referred to yet rarely properly understood. The aim of what follows is to explain, as clearly and accessibly as possible, what is at stake in the negotiations over fisheries, what is being negotiated and what the implications of these talks might be for the sector.
  • Topic: European Union, Brexit, Trade, Fishing
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Gordon Munro
  • Publication Date: 06-2020
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
  • Abstract: The North Sea is a very productive fishing area of great importance to surrounding coastal states Norway, the UK, Sweden, the Netherlands, France, Germany, Denmark and Belgium, with an average total harvest in recent years of slightly more than 1.8 million tonnes. This report explains why the cooperative management of the six shared North Sea fish stocks has been so stable to date and considers what lessons this success holds for the world at large. The report also speculates on the post Brexit management of these resources. The lessons learned from cooperative management over 40 years may well have an impact also on future cooperation between Norway, the UK and the EU27.
  • Topic: International Cooperation, European Union, Economy, Brexit, Oceans and Seas, Fishing
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe, France, Germany, Belgium, Denmark, Sweden, Netherlands
  • Author: Will Jennings
  • Publication Date: 09-2020
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
  • Abstract: There has been much written and said about the degree of trust that voters have in their government, and in politicians in general. At a time of considerable uncertainty around Covid-19, as well as around the various laws and guidelines governing public behaviour during the pandemic, these questions have taken on a newfound urgency. This report looks provides a starting point for those interested in tracking the relationship between government and governed in this Parliament.
  • Topic: Government, Politics, European Union, Brexit, COVID-19
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Mary C. Murphy, Michael Keating, David Bell, Nicola McEwen, Michael Kenny, Jac Larner, Dan Wincott, Kirsty Hughes
  • Publication Date: 02-2020
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
  • Abstract: What challenges does leaving the European Union pose for the Unions of Great Britain and Northern Ireland? On 3 February the Centre on Constitutional Change launched their latest report, Brexit and the Union where their fellows discuss some of the issues Brexit presents for the UK’s territorial and constitutional future. This report looks at: Brexit and Ireland/Northern Ireland’s Constitutional Future The Internal Market Post-Brexit Regional Funds and Fisheries Arrangements Brexit: Exposing the Limits of Devolved Authority England’s Territorial Politics After Brexit Wales: Where Next? Brexit, Scotland and Europe
  • Topic: Markets, European Union, Brexit, Fishing
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe, Ireland, Scotland, Wales
  • Author: Karen O'Reilly
  • Publication Date: 03-2020
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
  • Abstract: This report is based on findings from the BrExpats research project, funded by the Economic and Social Research Council through UK in a Changing Europe Initiative (Grant Number ES/R000875/1). This was a longitudinal study of Brexit and its implications for UK nationals living in other European Union member states. From May 2017 until January 2020, the project team tracked the Brexit negotiations and what they mean for the political rights, social and financial entitlements, identity, citizenship and belonging of Britons living in the EU-27. In particular, the project team documented how the protracted uncertainties about what Brexit means for citizens’ rights—the rights and entitlements derived from exercising Freedom of Movement—were experienced by UK nationals living across the EU-27, and with what consequences for their ongoing emotional and practical choices.
  • Topic: European Union, Brexit, Negotiation, Public Policy
  • Political Geography: Britain, United Kingdom, Europe, Spain
  • Author: Michaela Benson
  • Publication Date: 03-2020
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
  • Abstract: This report is based on findings from the BrExpats research project, funded by the Economic and Social Research Council through the UK in a Changing Europe Initiative. This was a longitudinal study of Brexit and its implications for UK nationals living in other European Union member states. From May 2017 until January 2020, the project team tracked the Brexit negotiations and what they mean for the political rights, social and financial entitlements, identity, citizenship and belonging of Britons living in the EU-27. In particular, the project team documented how the protracted uncertainties about what Brexit means for citizens’ rights—the rights and entitlements derived from exercising Freedom of Movement—were experienced by UK nationals living across the EU-27, and with what consequences for their ongoing emotional and practical choices.
  • Topic: Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Brexit, Freedom of Movement
  • Political Geography: Britain, Europe, France
  • Author: Katy Hayward
  • Publication Date: 05-2020
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
  • Abstract: This report shares results from an 18-month long project which considered the democratic implications of the Protocol on Northern Ireland/Ireland contained in the Withdrawal Agreement at every level of government: within Northern Ireland, within the UK, north-south on the island of Ireland, British-Irish, and now UK-EU. The authors lay out 80 recommendations as to what measures can be taken in order to ensure that Northern Ireland’s interests can be protected and heard in the new post-Brexit landscape.
  • Topic: Governance, European Union, Brexit
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe, Ireland, Northern Ireland
  • Author: Catherine Barnard, Anand Menon
  • Publication Date: 05-2020
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
  • Abstract: Whether it is because of fishing rights, financial services, the EU’s insistence that the UK adhere to its level playing field, governance demands, or simply running out of time, it is far from clear that a trade deal will be successfully negotiated and approved by the end of 2020. As a consequence, the notion of the UK trading with the EU ‘on WTO terms’ has resurfaced. We have produced this report to explain what the WTO is and what trading on WTO terms actually means legally and practically. It updates an earlier version published in 2018.
  • Topic: European Union, Constitution, Economy, Brexit, Trade, WTO
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Anand Menon
  • Publication Date: 02-2020
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
  • Abstract: The UK has finally left the European Union. Brexit has happened. However, what promises to be a long and complex process of dealing with its implications is only just beginning. Given this, we thought it was worth trying to take stock of where we’ve got to, and to look forward to the challenges that confront us moving forward. Social science has as much, if not more, to offer in phase two as it did in phase one.
  • Topic: European Union, Constitution, Economy, Brexit
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: David Lidington, Anand Menon
  • Publication Date: 02-2020
  • Content Type: Video
  • Institution: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
  • Abstract: On 30 January 2020, Professor Anand Menon was joined by former cabinet minister and Conservative MP Sir David Lidington for our first Beer and Brexit of 2020.
  • Topic: European Union, Business , Brexit, Trade
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Catherine Fieschi, Matthew Goodwin, Paul Taggart, Tim Bale
  • Publication Date: 05-2020
  • Content Type: Video
  • Institution: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
  • Abstract: At this event in our #IsolationInsight virtual series, our speakers discussed what populist leaders are doing in the Covid-19 crisis, how they are exploiting it, and the impact this is likely to have on politics.
  • Topic: Politics, European Union, Brexit, Populism, Pandemic, COVID-19
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Alberto Costa, Jonathan Portes, Lauren McLaren, Marina Fernandez Reino, Tim Bale
  • Publication Date: 06-2020
  • Content Type: Video
  • Institution: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
  • Abstract: Our recent #IsolationInsight virtual event looked at what the UK’s post Brexit immigration regime could and should look like, considering also public opinion on immigration and the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. Speakers: Alberto Costa, Conservative MP for South Leicestershire Professor Jonathan Portes, senior fellow at the UK in a Changing Europe Professor Lauren McLaren, @University of Leicester Marina Fernandez Reino, Migration Observatory Chair: Professor Tim Bale, deputy director at the UK in a Changing Europe
  • Topic: Economics, Migration, Politics, Immigration, Economy, Brexit, COVID-19
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Ben Chu, Jonathan Portes, Meredith Crowley, Gemma Tetlow, Anand Menon
  • Publication Date: 06-2020
  • Content Type: Video
  • Institution: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
  • Abstract: Our recent #IsolationInsight event discussed the economics of the coronavirus pandemic and the UK’s departure from the EU. Speakers : Ben Chu, economics editor, @The Independent ; Professor Jonathan Portes, senior fellow, The UK in a Changing Europe ; Dr Meredith Crowley, senior fellow, The UK in a Changing Europe ; Dr Gemma Tetlow, chief economist, @Institute for Government ; Chair: Professor Anand Menon, director, The UK in a Changing Europe
  • Topic: Economics, European Union, Brexit, Pandemic, COVID-19
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: John Curtice, Paula Surridge, Will Jennings, James Johnson, Anand Menon
  • Publication Date: 06-2020
  • Content Type: Video
  • Institution: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
  • Abstract: To mark four years since the EU referendum, our Isolation Insight event looked at how public opinion has changed since the vote, how values have evolved and shaped politics, trust in government and leaders, and more. Speakers: Sir John Curtice, senior fellow, UK in a Changing Europe; Paula Surridge, political sociologist, University of Bristol; Professor Will Jennings, professor of political science and public policy, University of Southampton; James Johnson, co-founder of J.L. Partners and former head pollster at 10 Downing Street; Chair: Professor Anand Menon, director, UK in a Changing Europe
  • Topic: Government, Politics, European Union, Brexit, Referendum
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: David Bailey, Caroline Flint, Mike Hawes, Jill Rutter, Anand Menon
  • Publication Date: 06-2020
  • Content Type: Video
  • Institution: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
  • Abstract: This briefing on our new report looked at the impacts of Brexit on the UK’s manufacturing sector, with speakers: Professor David Bailey, lead report author and senior fellow, UK in a Changing Europe Caroline Flint, former Labour MP for Don Valley Mike Hawes, chief executive, Society of Motor Manufacturers & Traders Jill Rutter, senior research fellow, UK in a Changing Europe Professor Anand Menon, director, UK in a Changing Europe
  • Topic: European Union, Brexit, Manufacturing
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Katy Hayward, Nicola McEwen, Dan Wincott, Peter Foster, Anand Menon
  • Publication Date: 07-2020
  • Content Type: Video
  • Institution: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
  • Abstract: The UK’s membership of the EU played a supporting role in maintaining the domestic Union, even as devolved powers grew. Brexit has exposed the legal fragility of the UK internal market at a time when relations between Westminster and the devolved governments are especially fraught. Proposals to replace EU regulation with new all-UK frameworks may reduce the risk of internal barriers, but they could also further centralise power in London. Our next Isolation Insight event explored these tensions, considering how they might play into debates on the future of the Union itself. Speakers: Dr Katy Hayward, senior fellow, UK in a Changing Europe; Professor Nicola McEwen, senior fellow, UK in a Changing Europe; Professor Dan Wincott, director of Governance after Brexit; Peter Foster, public policy editor, @Financial Times; Chair: Professor Anand Menon, director, UK in a Changing Europe
  • Topic: International Relations, Government, European Union, Brexit, Centralization
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: David O'Sullivan, Katya Adler, Bruno Waterfield, Anand Menon, Jill Rutter
  • Publication Date: 09-2020
  • Content Type: Video
  • Institution: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
  • Abstract: This Isolation Insight webinar looked at the latest state of play of the Brexit negotiations and the challenges ahead. Speakers : David O'Sullivan, former European Union ambassador to the United States; Katya Adler, Europe Editor, BBC; Bruno Waterfield, Brussels Correspondent, The Times; Anand Menon, Director, UK in a Changing Europe; Chair: Jill Rutter, Senior Research Fellow, UK in a Changing Europe
  • Topic: European Union, Brexit, Negotiation
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Rachel Reeves, Stephen Bush, Anand Menon
  • Publication Date: 10-2020
  • Content Type: Video
  • Institution: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
  • Abstract: As the Brexit transition period comes to an end, UK in a Changing Europe and LabourList are putting on a series of events exploring the key issues facing the Labour Party in the coming months. At our first event, Chair Sienna Rodgers spoke to panelists about Labour’s Brexit policy, as the negotiations reach crunch point. Speakers: Rachel Reeves, Shadow Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and Shadow Minister for the Cabinet Office, Labour Party; Stephen Bush, Political Editor, New Statesman; Anand Menon, Director, UK in a Changing Europe
  • Topic: European Union, Brexit, Political Parties
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Ben Chu, Meredith Crowley, Gemma Tetlow, Thomas Sampson, Anand Menon
  • Publication Date: 10-2020
  • Content Type: Video
  • Institution: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
  • Abstract: At this Isolation Insight webinar, panelists discussed the economics of the Covid-19 pandemic and the UK's exit from the EU, six months after lockdown began and with less than three months left of the transition period. Speakers: Ben Chu, economics editor, The Independent; Meredith Crowley, senior fellow, UK in a Changing Europe; Gemma Tetlow, chief economist, Institute for Government; Thomas Sampson, associate professor, London School of Economics; Chair: Anand Menon, director, UK in a Changing Europe
  • Topic: Economics, European Union, Brexit, Transition, COVID-19
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Gideon Rachman, Jeremy Shapiro, Kate McNamara, Anand Menon
  • Publication Date: 11-2020
  • Content Type: Video
  • Institution: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
  • Abstract: At this Isolation Insight webinar, speakers discusses the US election and what the result might mean for transatlantic relations. Speakers : Gideon Rachman, Chief Foreign Affairs Commentator, Financial Times; Jeremy Shapiro, Research Director, European Council on Foreign Relations; Kate McNamara, Professor of Government and Foreign Service, Georgetown University; Chair: Anand Menon, Director, UK in a Changing Europe
  • Topic: Elections, European Union, Brexit, Transatlantic Relations
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe, North America, United States of America
  • Author: Paul Darragh, Bernie McCrory, Damien McCallion, Philippa Whitford, Paul Williams, Layla McCay, Alison Moore
  • Publication Date: 11-2020
  • Content Type: Video
  • Institution: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
  • Abstract: This event is part of the ESRC’s Festival of Social Science 2020, which we are organising in partnership with the University of Sheffield, Queen’s University Belfast and Shout Out UK. Speakers will discuss the ‘Brexit, Health and Me’ film, which reports on research by academics following the EU referendum. Speakers are: Dr Paul Darragh, Member of BMA UK Board of Science, BMA UK Council; Bernie McCrory, Chief Officer, Cross Border Health and Social Care, Northern Ireland; Damien McCallion Director General, Cross Border Health and Social Care, Northern Ireland; Dr Philippa Whitford, MP for Central Ayrshire; Dr Paul Williams, former MP for Stockton South 2017-2019; Dr Layla McCay, Director of International Relations, NHS Confederation; Chair: Alison Moore, Correspondent, Health Service Journal
  • Topic: Health Care Policy, European Union, Brexit, COVID-19, National Health Service (NHS)
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Bell Ribeiro-Addy, Lucy Powell, John Curtice, Sienna Rodgers, Anand Menon
  • Publication Date: 12-2020
  • Content Type: Video
  • Institution: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
  • Abstract: The outcome of the 2019 general election was the worst in the Labour Party’s history. One year on from the vote the UK in a Changing Europe and LabourList are putting on an event looking at how the party has changed over the last 12 months and what it needs to do to win in 2024. Speakers are: Bell Ribeiro-Addy, MP for Streatham, Labour Party; Lucy Powell, Shadow Minister for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy and MP for Manchester Central, Labour Party; Sir John Curtice, Senior Fellow, UK in a Changing Europe; Sienna Rodgers, Editor, LabourList; Chair: Anand Menon, Director, UK in a Changing Europe
  • Topic: Elections, European Union, Brexit, Political Parties, COVID-19
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Aliyyah Ahad, Monica Andriescu
  • Publication Date: 09-2020
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
  • Abstract: Just weeks after the United Kingdom’s formal departure from the European Union on January 31, 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic hit Europe with full force. The outbreak drew public and political attention away from the implementation of the withdrawal agreement, while also straining many public administrations, including agencies responsible for residency applications. With the clock ticking down on the transition period, set to end on December 31, 2020, many EU countries have yet to announce the details of the systems that will govern the future status and rights of their UK-national residents. The United Kingdom is further along, having rolled out its pilot EU Settlement Scheme to resident EU nationals in 2019. But of the 26 EU countries with responsibilities for citizens’ rights, only Italy, Malta, and the Netherlands had launched registration schemes before the pandemic began. And even where implementation had begun, many systems faced setbacks as in-person government services were suspended by lockdown measures. This has created considerable uncertainty for UK nationals in EU countries, and EU nationals in the United Kingdom—as well as their families—who will have six months after the transition period ends to acquire a new post-Brexit status. As this policy brief details, the pandemic has put some in an even more precarious position, including families with third-country-national members that have been separated by travel restrictions, and the newly unemployed, who may no longer meet the conditions of the EU Free Movement Directive (the foundation of the withdrawal agreement). This brief sets out steps governments on both sides of the Channel can take in the coming months to “pandemic-proof” their implementation plans. These include: investing in smart outreach to would-be applicants, streamlining status-adjustment processes, and supporting civil-society groups that can help applicants through the process.
  • Topic: Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Economy, Brexit, Pandemic, COVID-19
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Facundo Albornoz, Jake Bradley, Silvia Sonderegger
  • Publication Date: 06-2020
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
  • Abstract: We show that the sharp increase in hate crime following the Brexit referendum was more pronounced in more pro-remain areas. This is consistent with a model where behavior is dictated by the desire to conform to imperfectly observed social norms in addition to following individual preferences, and where the referendum revealed that society’s real preferences over immigration were less positive than previously thought. For identification, we exploit the feature that the referendum revealed new information overnight in a context where other determinants of attitudes remained constant. The data can be replicated with a sensible parameterization of the model.
  • Topic: Immigration, Public Opinion, Brexit, Discrimination
  • Political Geography: Britain, United Kingdom
  • Author: Rachel Lutz Ellehuus, Ricklef Beutin, Quentin Lopinot
  • Publication Date: 02-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: For European countries and institutions as well as for transatlantic relations, 2019 will be a pivotal year. With several important leadership, policy, and structural transitions taking place in capitals and Brussels, there will be instability and uncertainty but from this could stem more positive dynamics. While the twists and turns of events remain unpredictable, what follows is a quick take on some of the most significant events on the European and transatlantic security and defense calendar for 2019 and the important stakes that are at play.
  • Topic: Regional Cooperation, European Union, Brexit, Regionalism
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Mikaela Gavas
  • Publication Date: 01-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Global Development
  • Abstract: Mikaela Gavas submitted written evidence to the United Kingdom's House of Lords EU External Affairs Sub-Committee on January 31, 2019. In her evidence Gavas answered questions about the future of UK-EU development cooperation after Brexit.
  • Topic: Development, Regional Cooperation, European Union, Brexit
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Maria C. Latorre, Zoryana Olekseyuk, Hidemichi Yonezawa, Sherman Robinson
  • Publication Date: 03-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: This paper examines 12 economic simulation models that estimate the impact of Brexit (Britain’s exit from the European Union). Most of the studies find adverse effects for the United Kingdom (UK) and the EU-27. The UK’s GDP losses from a hard Brexit (reversion to World Trade Organization rules due to a lack of UK-EU agreement) range from –1.2 to –4.5 percent in most of the models analyzed. A soft Brexit (e.g., Norway arrangement, which seems in line with the nonbinding text of the political declaration of November 14, 2018, on the future EU-UK relationship) has about half the negative impact of a hard Brexit. Only two of the models derive gains for the UK after Brexit because they are based on unrealistic assumptions. The authors analyze more deeply a computable general equilibrium model that includes productivity and firm selection effects within manufacturing sectors and operations of foreign multinationals in services. Based on this latest model, they explain the likely economic impact of Brexit on a wide range of macroeconomic variables, namely GDP, wages, private consumption, capital remuneration, aggregate exports, aggregate imports, and the consumer price index.
  • Topic: Economics, World Trade Organization, Brexit, Multinational Corporations
  • Political Geography: Britain, Europe, European Union
  • Author: Tuomas Iso-Markku, Marco Siddi
  • Publication Date: 05-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: Three main factors will determine the shape of the next European Parliament (EP): the outcome of the elections, the organisation of national parties into supranational political groups, and developments in the Brexit process. Everything points towards some significant changes – and a considerable degree of uncertainty – in the new EP. The EP’s centre-right and centre-left groups are expected to lose their combined majority for the first time since 1979, whereas far-right parties and liberal democrats will likely increase their representation. The EP’s mainstream groups will therefore need new allies to achieve majorities, which could boost the influence of the smaller groups. The choice of the next Commission President will be the first major test for the new EP. While most political groups have designated candidates, it is unclear whether the Spitzenkandidaten system will be followed. If and when it takes place, Brexit will have an impact on the size of the EP, reducing it from 751 to 705 seats, as well as on the composition of the political groups that include British parliamentarians.
  • Topic: Regional Cooperation, European Union, Brexit, European Parliament
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Tuomas Iso-Markku, Juha Jokela
  • Publication Date: 08-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The Finnish presidency of the Council of the EU faces a sensitive political climate, marked by divisions between the member states. However, some of the EU’s recent crises have also given the Union a renewed sense of purpose: striking the right balance between ambition and realism will therefore be a key challenge for Finland. During its presidency, Finland will have little legislative work, but can help in setting the EU’s priorities for the next five years, advancing the negotiations on the Multiannual Financial Framework and managing the Brexit process. The rise of the Eurosceptic Finns Party in the late 2000s had a crucial impact on Finland’s EU policy. This was reflected in harder and, at times, obstructive positions on EU issues. However, recently a new consensus on EU affairs seems to have emerged among the other parties. Antti Rinne’s new government is striving for a stronger EU with a presidency programme that resonates with the strategic agenda of the European Council, but also corresponds with the more limited role of post-Lisbon Treaty presidencies.
  • Topic: Regional Cooperation, European Union, Finance, Brexit
  • Political Geography: Europe, Finland
  • Author: Samuel B. H. Faure
  • Publication Date: 05-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
  • Abstract: Published in the context of Brexit, this research paper analyses the ‘double relationship’ between Britain and Europe: being ‘in’ by taking part in co-operation with other European states, and at the same time being ‘out’ by staying away from or even leaving multilateral programmes in Europe. This dilemma is worked on from the case of defence procurement policy. How does the British government decide to be both ‘in’ and ‘out’ of Europe by participating in the A400M military transport aircraft programme and withdrawing from the EuroMale UAV programme? Based on exclusive data, the decision in favour of the A400M (‘in’) is explained by the action of political, administrative and industrial actors who perceive the A400M as a ‘truck’ rather than a ‘race car’. As for the British State’s decision not to participate in the EuroMale programme (‘out’), it is conditioned by a weakening of the political will of political actors, and at the same time by a strengthening of conflicting relations between French and British administrations and industries. In doing so, this research contributes to the literature on the acquisition of armaments in strategic studies, and to the literature on differentiated integration in European studies.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Political Economy, European Union, Brexit, Conflict, Europeanization
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, France, Western Europe, European Union
  • Author: Burak Cop
  • Publication Date: 04-2019
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Global Political Trends Center
  • Abstract: As the most divisive issue of the British politics since 2016, the Brexit phenomenon continues to shake the two biggest mainstream parties, Conservatives and Labour. The Conservative Party is affected by the tension between the Soft and Hard Brexiters, but the divisiveness Brexit brings about hits Labour even worse. A No Deal or Hard Brexit is likely to strengthen Scotland’s bid for independence. Scotland’s probable departure from the UK will surely be encouraging for other secessionist movements in Europe, however it should be noted that the window of opportunity Brexit opens for Scottish nationalists constitutes a rather exceptional case in Europe. One could argue that the “Norway model” for post-Brexit UK could be valid for Turkey too, but that model aims to bring about a deeper integration than what the proponents of “EU-Turkey exclusive partnership” prescribe for Turkey.
  • Topic: European Union, Brexit, Political Parties, Secession
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, North America, Scotland, European Union
  • Author: Valentin Schatz
  • Publication Date: 12-2019
  • Content Type: Journal Article
  • Journal: The Goettingen Journal of International Law
  • Institution: The Goettingen Journal of International Law
  • Abstract: This article approaches the question of post-Brexit access of European Union (EU) Member States to the United Kingdom’s (UK) territorial sea fisheries by first discussing the pre-Brexit legal status quo under the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) of the EU. Second, this article discusses the international legal framework for access to territorial sea fisheries that would apply if the UK withdraws from the EU in the absence of a future agreement. As Part II of the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) does not contain provisions on fisheries access, this analysis focuses on the role of the 1964 London Fisheries Convention (LFC), bilateral voisinage agreements between the UK and EU Member States, potential acquired historic fishing rights of EU Member States in the UK’s territorial sea, and potential access rights derived from royal privileges. Next, this article addresses the relevance of the transitional arrangements contained in the latest draft withdrawal agreement of 2018, which was not, however, adopted by the UK. Finally, this article offers some conclusions as to the applicable legal framework for access of EU Member States to the UK’s territorial sea fisheries absent a new fisheries agreement between the EU and the UK, and potential ways to proceed in the future regulation of this issue.
  • Topic: International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, Territorial Disputes, European Union, Brexit
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Publication Date: 01-2019
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: LSE IDEAS
  • Abstract: This report explores the impact of Brexit from an Irish perspective, explaining Europe’s role in improving Ireland-UK relations since 1970s and outlining the threat posed by Brexit to the political settlement in Northern Ireland. In April 2019, LSE IDEAS produced a second edition of this report, containing a new contribution from Michael Burleigh, important updates from Paul Gillespie and Adrian Guelke, and a refreshed introduction from Michael Cox.
  • Topic: International Political Economy, International Affairs, Brexit
  • Political Geography: Ireland, Global Focus
  • Author: Alida Vračić
  • Publication Date: 03-2019
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: European Council On Foreign Relations
  • Abstract: Western Balkans governments have failed to tap the potential of their vast diaspora – six million strong – around the world. This diaspora possesses the networks, skills, and assets that Western Balkans countries need to develop and to prosper in an age of fierce economic competition. Ireland’s experience sets the standard: today’s “Global Irish” population is a networked diaspora that champions Irish interests throughout the world and has made critical contributions to Ireland’s economic miracle. To follow in Irish footsteps, the Western Balkans urgently needs to gather data, including carrying out comprehensive labour force surveys, to understand the diaspora properly and learn how best to communicate with it. The EU must help. It should introduce circular migration programmes so that educated Western Balkans citizens in EU member states return to their home countries fully equippedto make an even greater contribution than they could have done before leaving
  • Topic: International Political Economy, Brexit
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Ana Muhar Blanquart
  • Publication Date: 03-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
  • Abstract: Brexit is a term coined of the words “British exit”, referring to the United Kingdom leaving the European Union. First used in 2012 by the founder of the British Influence think-tank Peter Wilding, it became the most frequently used political term in 2016, the year when the British electorate chose to leave the European Union and thus change the political landscape of the United Kingdom and the European Union.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, European Union, Brexit
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe, England, North Ireland, Ireland, Scotland, Wales
  • Author: Augustin Palokaj
  • Publication Date: 05-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
  • Abstract: European elections this year, to take place on 23-26 May, are considered to be one of the most important in the history of the European Union. This might sound exaggerated or at least something that has been heard before. But there are many reasons why this time things are different. The EU is at the crossroads, performance, record low unemployment and fewer member states find themselves in economic difficulties or excessive deficit. Trust in the EU and support for membership is increasing among citizens in most member states. However, the general picture remains mixed and any flaw is widely exploited by with mixed picture on the state of the union: divided more than ever on core issues such as common values, solidarity, migration, free movement and the rule of law. On the positive side, however, there is a pretty good economic eurosceptic forces. Many challenges will have to be addressed urgently, starting immediately after the European elections. The results, which will most probably confirm a decline in support for traditional mainstream parties, will affect the election of a new President of the European Commission, a new President of the European Council and other key figures in EU institutions. This time it will not be easy, since many national leaders have questioned the automatic respect for the principle of “Spitzenkandidat” (the lead candidate put forward by the political group able to create a majority in the European Parliament, that becomes the President of the European Commission) and will try to return this power to elect the Commission’s President to the heads of states and governments, with the Parliament expected to rubber-stamp their choice. The Parliament could fight back and this may create a politically motivated power struggle between two major EU institutions.
  • Topic: Regional Cooperation, Elections, European Union, Brexit
  • Political Geography: Europe, Brussels
  • Author: Marko Attila Hoare
  • Publication Date: 06-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
  • Abstract: The popular vote of the UK on 23 June 2016 to leave the EU has been politically an earthquake for the first and a shock to the second. Retrospectively, the outcome was likely, given the structural factors both within Britain and between Britain and the EU. Yet these same factors have obstructed a clear British post- referendum strategy for secession: Britain Britain’s relationship to Europe is traditionally ambiguous. Britain’s identity - of a Protestant island-state formed in 1707 from the Anglo- Scottish union - was cemented during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries in wars against the Catholic powers of continental Europe. It was successively reinforced by Napoleon’s anti-British Continental System; does not know what kind of Brexit it wants, or whether it wants one at all. This briefing will examine the causes of the Brexit revolution and the reasons for its uncertain execution, before considering the likely outcome.
  • Topic: Regional Cooperation, Geopolitics, Europe Union, Brexit
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe, England, Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales
  • Author: Larissa Brunner
  • Publication Date: 12-2019
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: European Policy Centre
  • Abstract: With the UK elections imminent, Larissa Brunner lays out three different scenarios depending on the outcome. None offer any reason for the EU to be optimistic. If the Conservatives win, the Withdrawal Agreement will probably be passed, providing short-term predictability and certainty. But any long-term deal will probably be much worse than the status quo. A Labour victory would mean the opposite: further short-term uncertainty until the new government has renegotiated another Brexit deal and held a second referendum, but a possible closer relationship in the long run (assuming the Leave vote is confirmed). A hung Parliament would combine the worst of both worlds. And then there’s the Scottish question. Regardless of whether the new government needs SNP support or not, the political pressure on London to endorse a second independence vote is likely to increase. The EU should, therefore, not take its eye off the ball and use the current respite in the Brexit process to prepare itself for all of the possible post-election scenarios.
  • Topic: Elections, European Union, Brexit
  • Political Geography: Britain, United Kingdom, Europe, Scotland
  • Author: David Fernández Marcos
  • Publication Date: 05-2019
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
  • Abstract: Since the 1990s a great deal of literature has been written predicting the behaviour of right-wing populists explaining their policies and ideology. Until Brexit, there had been no such clear victory for right-wing populist policies. Drawing from the current state of the art, data from the national and European electoral party manifestos as well as Eurobarometer survey data from France, Germany, Italy and Sweden, this dissertation employs Strom’s rational choice-based party behaviour model to explore how the internal structure and each country’s political and institutional environments have mediated the right-wing populist parties’ reaction to the upswing of positive opinions about the European Union among European public opinion since Brexit. They have done so in two directions: by either continuing their promise to leave the EU or by dropping the promise and instead advocating institutional reform, in those cases where the parties seek to govern.
  • Topic: Public Opinion, European Union, Brexit, Populism, Far Right
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Tarek A. Hassan, Laurence van Lent, Stephan Hollander, Ahmed Tahoun
  • Publication Date: 01-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
  • Abstract: Using tools from computational linguistics, we construct new measures of the impact of Brexit on listed firms in the United States and around the world: the share of discussions in quarterly earnings conference calls on costs, benefits, and risks associated with the UK’s intention to leave the EU. Using this approach, we identify which firms expect to gain or lose from Brexit and which are most affected by Brexit uncertainty. We then estimate the effects of these different kinds of Brexit exposure on firm-level outcomes. We find that concerns about Brexit-related uncertainty extend far beyond British or even European firms. US and international firms most exposed to Brexit uncertainty have lost a substantial fraction of their market value and have reduced hiring and investment. In addition to Brexit uncertainty (the second moment), we find that international firms overwhelmingly expect negative direct effects of Brexit (the first moment), should it come to pass. Most prominently, firms expect difficulties resulting from regulatory divergence, reduced labor mobility, trade access, and the costs of adjusting their operations post-Brexit. Consistent with the predictions of canonical theory, this negative sentiment is recognized and priced in stock markets but has not yet had significant effects on firm actions.
  • Topic: Economics, Political Economy, Regional Cooperation, Brexit, Global Political Economy, Economic Policy
  • Political Geography: Britain, United States, United Kingdom, Europe, European Union
  • Author: Katarina Schwarz, Todd Landman, Katrina Peake
  • Publication Date: 06-2019
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Asia Research Institute, University of Nottingham
  • Abstract: How can the UK best protect human rights in Asia, an area historically weak in protecting and promoting human rights, when it comes to securing new trade deals after exiting the European Union (EU)? This policy brief assesses potential pathways for the UK to protect human rights in Asia through trade after exiting the EU, accounting for the specific challenges of advancing human rights in the region. It draws on existing practice, with a focus on the EU, to make suggestions for future UK trade policy through both unilateral and bilateral arrangements.
  • Topic: Human Rights, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Brexit, Trade, Trade Policy
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Asia
  • Author: Katarina Schwarz, Todd Landman, Katrina Peake
  • Publication Date: 06-2019
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: Asia Research Institute, University of Nottingham
  • Abstract: Throughout the period of the United Kingdom’s membership in the European Union (EU) and under the status quo, the EU possesses exclusive competence of its Common Commercial Policy. It therefore does not have to consult the UK when developing trade agreements, and the UK’s part in these processes is defined by its role within the EU. The UK alone does not determine the existence, scope, or terms of trade relationships with third countries. However, after exiting the EU, the United Kingdom will exercise more substantial, and ultimate, decision-making power over the nature of trade with external partners. This creates an opportunity for the development and evolution of new, direct trading relationships with countries beyond the EU—relationships that are likely to have increasing significance in the UK economy after withdrawal and over time. As Prime Minister Theresa May recognised in a speech in Florence: "Our relations with countries outside the EU can be developed in new ways, including through our own trade negotiations, because we will no longer be an EU country, and we will no longer directly benefit from the EU’s future trade negotiations." Many aspects of these agreements are open to negotiation, creating new possibilities for the UK to expand its influence in a variety of areas, and to address particular challenges faced within the borders of trading partners.
  • Topic: Human Rights, Bilateral Relations, Brexit, Trade, Trade Policy
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Asia
  • Author: Georgia Spiliopoulos, Stephen Timmons
  • Publication Date: 06-2019
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Asia Research Institute, University of Nottingham
  • Abstract: Non-British nurses working for the National Health Service (NHS) face a number of challenges, which must be addressed in the context of ongoing Brexit negotiations. Since the 2016 Referendum result to leave the European Union (EU), the number of EU nurses registering with the Nursing and Midwifery Council (NMC) plummeted in 2017 by 96% – from 1,304 EU nurses registering with the NMC in July 2016 to just 46 in April 2017 (Siddique, 2017). This drop in numbers is also linked with the number of EU nurses leaving the UK (Matthews-King, 2017). A recent NMC report (2019) published a 1% increase, for the first time in three years, in the number of new nurse registrants, for the period between April 2018 and March 2019. This increase translates into 6,000 nurses from the UK, EU and overseas. These numbers, while encouraging, reflect the changes in international recruitment from EU and non-EU countries, and importantly the impact of Brexit on the retention of both EU and non-EU nurses. This paper recommends measures to support the retention of these nurses.
  • Topic: Health, Health Care Policy, Brexit, Public Health
  • Political Geography: Britain, United Kingdom, Asia
  • Author: Georgia Spiliopoulos, Stephen Timmons
  • Publication Date: 06-2019
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: Asia Research Institute, University of Nottingham
  • Abstract: The UK Referendum decision to leave the European Union in June 2016 exacerbated some of the long-standing challenges the National Health Service (NHS) has been facing in recruiting and retaining nursing staff. In 2018, it was estimated that one in eight posts was vacant, which translates into 36,000 nursing vacancies (King’s Fund, 2018). Arguably, these challenges have been present since the founding of the NHS in 1948. Pre-established initiatives recruiting overseas nurses to deal with acute staffing shortages during the war effort, mainly from the Commonwealth, were also adopted by the NHS. Hence, the Nurses’ Act of 1949 relaxed the criteria for the registration of overseas nurses set up by the General Nursing Council (Solano and Rafferty, 2007). Therefore, we can trace historical developments in recruiting non-UK nurses, which reflect changing state regulations over time, connected to particular political and financial factors, xenophobic rhetoric and also problems in retaining British nursing staff (Bach, 2007; Ball, 2004; Cangiano et al, 2009; Simpkin and Mossialos, 2017; Solano and Rafferty, 2007). In the 1950s, for example, significant numbers of overseas nurses entered the UK as trainees, while an even higher number of British nurses emigrated abroad, fuelling concerns over training of overseas nurses but also bringing to the forefront anxieties over race (Solano and Rafferty, 2007). An illustrative example of political will influencing recruitment of overseas nurses was seen in New Labour’s push for a ‘modernization agenda’ in the late 1990s and subsequently, a push for international recruitment (Deeming, 2004). However, aggressive recruitment initiatives targeting nursing staff from developing countries such as Zimbabwe, Kenya and Zambia, led to the introduction of the NHS ‘Code of Practice’ on ethical recruitment in 2001 (Deeming, 2004), with calls for overseas recruitment to focus mainly on pre-existing agreements with countries such as the Philippines and India (Buchan, 2006).
  • Topic: Health, Health Care Policy, Brexit, Public Policy
  • Political Geography: Britain, United Kingdom, Asia
  • Author: Alex Lechner, Hoong Chen Teo, Ahimsa Campos-Arceiz
  • Publication Date: 06-2019
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Asia Research Institute, University of Nottingham
  • Abstract: The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) poses a great risk to biodiversity, particularly as many of the infrastructure projects are due to take place in regions that are home to threatened and endangered species found nowhere else in the world. This policy brief makes recommendations for the UK government to develop a BRI Biodiversity Strategy.
  • Topic: Environment, Brexit, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Ecology
  • Political Geography: Britain, China
  • Author: Sarah Hall
  • Publication Date: 06-2019
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Asia Research Institute, University of Nottingham
  • Abstract: London is the largest western financial centre for financial transactions denominated in Renminbi (RMB) and has played an important role in shaping the rapid and recent internationalisation of Chinese finance. This policy brief discusses how to maintain this leading role post-Brexit.
  • Topic: Economics, International Political Economy, Finance, Brexit, Financial Institutions
  • Political Geography: Britain, China, United Kingdom
  • Author: Benjamin Barton
  • Publication Date: 06-2019
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Asia Research Institute, University of Nottingham
  • Abstract: As China’s President Xi Jinping’s signature foreign policy programme, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has become one of the world’s most active infrastructure development drivers. The BRI is helping to meet the increasing demand for infrastructure development in emerging markets across the world. This policy is unlikely to change due to the importance that the Chinese government attributes to the BRI, with it now being formally enshrined into the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) constitution. For the UK, the BRI stakes are high; it matters both domestically and internationally. It is impacting the wellbeing of countries that are of strategic importance to the UK. It also contributes to the emerging geopolitical rivalry on infrastructure financing. The government should explore bilateral and multilateral venues to seek to cooperate with China on the BRI by developing a UK BRI strategy post-Brexit.
  • Topic: Development, Bilateral Relations, Infrastructure, Geopolitics, Brexit, Multilateralism, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Economic Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Britain, China, United Kingdom, Asia
  • Author: Benjamin Barton
  • Publication Date: 06-2019
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: Asia Research Institute, University of Nottingham
  • Abstract: As China and President Xi Jinping signature foreign policy programme, the BRI has become in a very short space of the time one of the world’s largest and most active international infrastructure development drivers. The BRI is helping, in a significant manner, to meet the increasing demand for infrastructure development and upgrades in emerging markets – a trend that is unlikely to slow anytime time soon, especially given the initiative’s current importance to the Chinese government. For the British government (from here onwards ‘government’), although the UK is unlikely to be a prime destination for BRI projects (for now), the BRI stakes are high. Not only do BRI projects impact the economic wellbeing of a number of countries of strategic importance to the UK, but the government cannot remain passive in the emerging geopolitical context of infrastructure development and financing rivalry. In addition, in light of its relative post-Brexit geopolitical isolation, the government needs to adopt a firm and unequivocal political stance in dealing with its Chinese counterpart should the UK itself become the recipient of BRI projects.
  • Topic: Economics, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, Brexit, Multilateralism, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
  • Political Geography: China, United Kingdom, Asia
  • Author: Valeri Modebadze
  • Publication Date: 05-2019
  • Content Type: Journal Article
  • Journal: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
  • Institution: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
  • Abstract: This article describes the main challenges that the European Union is facing over the last years. It also analyzes the European Integration process and the emergence of the European Union. European integration process began after the Second World War. European politicians realized that ‘the old continent’, which was destroyed and razed to the ground, needed unification in order to play a more important role in the bipolar international system. The European integration was a step by step process, which reached its culmination after signing the Maastricht Treaty in 1992 when the European Union was formally established. The European Union created a very favorable ground for free movement of people, goods, services, and capital within the internal market. Despite these positive developments, new threats emerged over the last years that can put an end to the European integration process. From these threats and challenges, particular attention is dedicated to Britain’s exit from the European Union (Brexit), the rise of radicalism and populist parties, the migration crisis, and a heightened terrorism threat.
  • Topic: Migration, Violent Extremism, Brexit, Populism, Political Crisis
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Anand Menon
  • Publication Date: 12-2019
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
  • Abstract: This is, according to several of the parties and at least one national broadcaster, a Brexit election. Assuming this is wholly – or even partially (as even Labour accept in their manifesto) – true, what the parties are saying about Brexit is therefore of crucial importance. This report represents our attempt to identify what they say, to compare the different pledges the parties make and to explain in straightforward terms what each of them is offering on Brexit. Our aim, simply stated, is to promote understanding so people can make up their own minds. Once again, we have been fortunate enough to be able to draw on the expertise of some of the country’s leading social scientists. Catherine Barnard, Matt Bevington, Charlotte Burns, Katy Hayward, Nicola McEwen, Jonathan Portes, Jill Rutter and Dan Wincott all contributed to this report. Alan Wager and John-Paul Salter edited the text. We hope you find what follows enlightening and informative. Election campaigns produce endless amounts of heat. We have attempted in what follows to shed at least a little light.
  • Topic: Politics, Elections, European Union, Brexit, Society
  • Political Geography: Britain, United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Alan Renwick, Meg Russell, Lisa James, Jess Sargeant
  • Publication Date: 12-2019
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
  • Abstract: Academics from the UCL Constitution Unit examine objectively the options for a further referendum. The chapters in the report explain the following: How a further referendum might come about; The referendum process, and the minimum timetable; The form the question might take; The regulatory framework, and options for improving the quality of debate; The pros and cons of making a referendum legally binding; How and when a further referendum might occur.
  • Topic: Politics, Elections, European Union, Brexit, Referendum, Society
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Anand Menon
  • Publication Date: 10-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
  • Abstract: The Prime Minister has set out a means of escaping the Brexit stalemate, but his new Brexit proposals have, as yet, not managed to overcome the impasse. What, though, would the plan mean for the UK economy? That is the question we seek to answer in what follows. As ever, we have been lucky enough to be able to draw on the skills and expertise of some of the leading experts in the field. The bulk of the work was done by Hanwei Huang, Jonathan Portes and Thomas Sampson, with contributions from Matt Bevington and Jill Rutter. Hanwei and Thomas used the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance trade model to carry out the modelling. We hope you find the report interesting and informative. Brexit is clearly about more than economics, but the economic impact of leaving the EU nevertheless merits careful scrutiny.
  • Topic: Economics, Politics, European Union, Brexit, Boris Johnson
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Nicola McEwen, Aileen McHarg, Fiona Munro, Paul Cairney, Karen Turner, Antonios Katris
  • Publication Date: 10-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
  • Abstract: This briefing paper considers the extent to which renewables in Scotland are shaped by the policy responsibilities and decisions of multiple governments: the Scottish government, the UK government and the EU. The paper explores the significance of EU membership in shaping Scottish renewables and considers the likely effects of the UK’s exit from the EU. Despite limited constitutional power, promoting renewables has been a key priority for successive Scottish governments, central to both its environmental and economic policies. While the main policy drivers rest with the UK government, stakeholders in Scotland place importance on the EU regulatory framework, EU funding and finance, multinational cooperation and long-term strategic thinking in supporting the development of renewables in Scotland. The briefing identifies varying levels of concern among key stakeholders with regard to the impact that Brexit may have on renewables in Scotland. Many expect policy continuity, irrespective of the UK-EU relationship. Others are fearful of the uncertainty surrounding access to the EU internal market, access to project funding, access to labour and expertise, and added costs and delays in supply chains in an industry heavily reliant on kit from the EU. The biggest impact of Brexit to date has been the dominance of the issue on the political agenda, leaving little space for policy development in other areas, including energy. In addition to the regulatory, financial and trade challenges it may generate, Brexit has also reignited the debate on Scotland’s constitutional future, creating further uncertainties for the future of renewables.
  • Topic: Government, European Union, Constitution, Brexit, Renewable Energy
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe, Scotland
  • Author: Katy Hayward
  • Publication Date: 12-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
  • Abstract: These are the findings of a project on the impacts of Brexit and the possible implications of a ‘No Deal’ scenario on the Central Border Region of Ireland/Northern Ireland. This research has been conducted by a small team at Queen’s University Belfast (led by Dr. Katy Hayward & Dr. Milena Komarova), in conjunction with the Irish Central Border Area Network (ICBAN), the cross-border partnership of eight local authorities in the area known as the Central Border Region. The report looks at: ‘The Border into Brexit’ project; The impact of Brexit on those living in the Central Border Region; A hard border; Leave supporters in the region; A No Deal Brexit; The revised Protocol in the Withdrawal Agreement.
  • Topic: European Union, Brexit, Borders
  • Political Geography: Europe, Ireland, Northern Ireland, UK
  • Author: Anand Menon
  • Publication Date: 01-2019
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
  • Abstract: It hardly needs saying that public attitudes towards Brexit and the numerous issues related to it have been central to our political debates since at least 2016. As politicians try to address popular concerns, the congruence, or otherwise, of their views with those of both the public at large and their own members will be crucial. This report looks at the new and continued divisions within the country that will have a disruptive impact on our politics going forward.
  • Topic: Politics, Public Opinion, European Union, Brexit, Society
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Michael Keating
  • Publication Date: 02-2019
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
  • Abstract: The future of agriculture policy across the United Kingdom after Brexit is uncertain and risky, according to a new paper by Professor Michael Keating of the Centre on Constitutional Change. Reforms of the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy over recent years have shifted the emphasis from farming to the broader concept of rural policy. As member states have gained more discretion in applying policy, the nations of the UK have also diverged, according to local conditions and preferences.
  • Topic: Agriculture, European Union, Brexit, Repatriation
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Colin Harvey
  • Publication Date: 02-2019
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
  • Abstract: The debate on Irish Unity has intensified. Brexit is only one part of this, as more people question the merits of the existing constitutional arrangements. The focus is now shifting to constitutional conversations about how the island is shared in the future, and the timeframe for what is often referred to as a “border poll”. The difficulty remains that there are several unanswered questions about the process, as many interventions understandably concentrate on the merits of this option. We believe that the debate around the referendums must be normalised as momentum builds towards setting out a precise timeframe. In this paper our intention is to examine logistical and legal questions that have thus far been neglected. This paper is therefore drafted with two principal considerations in mind: How can referendums on Irish unity be achieved? How can they be won?
  • Topic: European Union, Constitution, Brexit, Referendum
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe, Ireland, Northern Ireland
  • Author: Michaela Benson
  • Publication Date: 04-2019
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
  • Abstract: This paper foregrounds an understanding of Brexit as unexceptional, as business as usual in Britain and Europe. It reports on original empirical research with British People of Colour who have settled elsewhere in Europe, to bring into view an original perspective to understandings of what Brexit means to Britons living in Europe, and to consider what these testimonies offer to emerging social science research on Brexit. The authors argue, focussing on the testimonies of British People of Colour living in the EU-27 offers a unique lens into how Brexit is caught up in everyday racism, personal experiences of racialization and racial violence, and longer European histories of racialization and racism. Importantly, these experiences precede and succeed Brexit, taking place in both Britain and other European Union countries.
  • Topic: Politics, Brexit, Society, Racism
  • Political Geography: Britain, United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Nando Sigona
  • Publication Date: 06-2019
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
  • Abstract: This research shows that the share of births to at least one EU parent has been increasing since the mid-2000s. In 2016 it was 12% of all births in England and Wales, 13% in Northern Ireland, and 10% in Scotland. The study also shows a change in the main countries of birth of EU parents, where the share of births to mothers and fathers from 2004 accession countries has increased.
  • Topic: Children, European Union, Citizenship, Brexit
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe, England, Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales
  • Author: Nando Sigona
  • Publication Date: 06-2019
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
  • Abstract: The share of applications for naturalization by EU27 residents in the UK has increased from 5% in 2007 to 26% in 2017. More than 80,000 EU residents have applied for naturalization since the EU referendum. Many more are still uncertain on their legal status and ponder their options. Attitudes towards naturalization vary significantly among EU nationals, with more well off and educated EU nationals and EU14 citizens displaying more resistance to apply to become British on moral and political grounds. Others, instead, take a more pragmatic approach to acquiring a British passport.
  • Topic: European Union, Naturalization, Brexit
  • Political Geography: Britain, Europe
  • Author: Anand Menon
  • Publication Date: 03-2019
  • Content Type: Video
  • Institution: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
  • Abstract: Speaking at the Keele World Affairs lecture series, Professor Anand Menon looks at what has happened so far, the possible routes the deal could take in the coming months and what impact a deal could have for the UK.
  • Topic: Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Brexit
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Bobby Duffy, Tim Bale, Maria Sobolewska, David Wiletts
  • Publication Date: 10-2019
  • Content Type: Video
  • Institution: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
  • Abstract: -Bobby Duffy, Professor of Public Policy and Director of the Policy Institute at King’s College London -Tim Bale, Deputy Director of The UK in a Changing Europe and -Professor of Politics at Queen Mary University London -Maria Sobolewska, Professor of political science, University of Manchester -Lord David Willetts, former science and universities minister
  • Topic: European Union, Brexit, Political Science, Public Policy, Polarization
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Lisa Mckenzie, Anand Menon, Daniel Moylan
  • Publication Date: 11-2019
  • Content Type: Video
  • Institution: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
  • Abstract: Can Brexit be understood as representing a genuinely revolutionary moment in British history, or are there much deeper, longer-term trends that explain the current moment? Speakers included: Lisa Mckenzie, Durham University Professor Anand Menon, UK in a Changing Europe Daniel Moylan, Urban Design London Bruno Waterfield, The Times
  • Topic: European Union, Brexit, Referendum, Elites
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Meghan Benton, Aliyyah Ahad
  • Publication Date: 09-2019
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
  • Abstract: In the run-up to the original March 2019 Brexit date, the European Union saw a flurry of activity as the remaining 27 Member States quickly put together contingency plans for what would happen should the United Kingdom crash out of the bloc without a deal. By necessity, many of these plans were skeletal. The extension of the Brexit deadline to the end of October 2019 bought the EU-27 additional time, but, as this policy brief discusses, few countries have undertaken significant additional planning for how to register and secure the rights of their resident UK nationals. This could spell major difficulties ahead for the nearly 1 million Britons living in the EU-27, who in a no-deal Brexit would become third-country nationals overnight, with implications for their residence status, employment rights, health-care access, and more. The United Kingdom, with its larger EU-national population of 3.6 million, has already rolled out a pilot program to enable these residents to adjust their legal status. Still, the challenges coming to light with this program hint at what could be in store for UK nationals facing untested systems in the EU-27. This policy brief looks at the major gaps in contingency plans across the EU-27 and the groups likely to be hit hardest by a no-deal Brexit, including mixed-nationality families, same-sex partners, and pensioners. It also recommends strategies the EU-27 and the United Kingdom could adopt to smooth the landing—from dropping some official criteria to register residence and making documentation requirements more flexible, to moving ahead with discussions of future social security coordination.
  • Topic: European Union, Immigrants, Brexit, Integration
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Daniel S. Hamilton
  • Publication Date: 01-2018
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: Center for Transatlantic Relations
  • Abstract: For decades the partnership between North America and Europe has been a steady anchor in a world of rapid change. Today, however, the transatlantic partnership itself has become unsettled and uncertain. Nowhere is this clearer than in the economic sphere. Voters across the United States and many parts of Europe have grown skeptical of open markets. Concerns about stagnant wages, widening income inequality, and pockets of stubbornly high unemployment have combined with fears of automation, digitization and immigration to swell economic insecurities on each side of the Atlantic. The election of Donald Trump as U.S. president and the decision by British citizens to leave the European Union have only added to transatlantic uncertainties. This state of division and mutual inwardness threatens the prosperity and ultimately the position of North America and Europe in the global economy and the broader global security system. This study charts possible paths by which Americans and Europeans can navigate this strange new world. It describes how the transatlantic economy is being transformed by domestic political uncertainties, the digital revolution, the changing nature of production, and the diffusion of global power and intensified global competition. It takes account of shifting trade relations among the United States, Canada and Mexico through NAFTA, and what Brexit and the rise of non-EU Europe may mean for the European Union and for transatlantic partnership.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, Partnerships, Brexit, Economic Growth, Trump, NAFTA
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe, Canada, North America, Mexico, United States of America, European Union
  • Author: Simon Kyte, David Goodger, Helen McDermott
  • Publication Date: 12-2018
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Oxford Economics
  • Abstract: A “no-deal” Brexit would cause a 5% drop in UK outbound travel and tourism trips in 2020, because of the stifled economic backdrop and impact of a weaker pound. Ireland and Spain would be the hardest hit from fewer UK visitors. In contrast, the weaker pound could mean that UK tourism inflows are 4% higher in a “no-deal” scenario, provided there is no travel disruption. But lower levels of domestic tourism mean that we would expect UK travel and tourism GDP to be 2% lower than our baseline forecast in 2020.
  • Topic: Diplomacy, Economics, Regional Cooperation, Tourism, European Union, Brexit
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Sven Biscop
  • Publication Date: 01-2018
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
  • Abstract: The 100th Egmont Paper deals with an issue that, unfortunately, provides little cause for celebration: the impact of Brexit on European diplomacy and defence. Unless, as Sven Biscop argues, a new “special relationship” can be established between Britain and the EU, both London and Brussels will
  • Topic: International Political Economy, International Affairs, Brexit
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Alexander Mattelaer
  • Publication Date: 11-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
  • Abstract: What are we to make of the Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration outlining the future relationship between the EU and the UK? This European Policy Brief explores the current state of the Brexit debate from a Belgian perspective. While the Brexit deal deserves to be welcomed, domestic politics continue to act as a bottleneck. Whether or not the Withdrawal Agreement obtains parliamentary approval, Belgian authorities would do well to stay alert and prepare for multiple potential outcomes.
  • Topic: Regional Cooperation, European Union, Brexit
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe, Belgium
  • Author: Micheal Cox, Adrian Guelke, Paul Gillespie
  • Publication Date: 06-2018
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: LSE IDEAS
  • Abstract: This report explores the impact of Brexit from an Irish perspective, explaining Europe’s role in improving Ireland-UK relations since 1970s and outlining the threat posed by Brexit to the political settlement in Northern Ireland
  • Topic: International Affairs, Brexit
  • Political Geography: Ireland
  • Author: Milan Igrutinović
  • Publication Date: 09-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
  • Abstract: European political parties are preparing themselves for the European Parliament elections in May 2019. With the UK formally leaving the EU at the end of March, the number of MEP seats for the election will decrease from 751 to 705, with a wider range of Brexit issues that will have to be dealt in the run-up. Also, Jean-Claude Juncker will not run again and that will leave the position at the head of the European Commission open for a new candidate. During the mandate of the current Commission sweeping changes occurred across the EU and, maybe more importantly, outside of it. The migrant crisis that exploded in late 2015 has shifted the way politics is debated in the EU and in the member states. The advent of ISIS in the Middle East and North Africa and the number of terrorist attacks in Europe have highlighted the security nexus between internal EU security and its neighbourhood. Russia has remained a strategic challenge and with it the security of Eastern Europe remains in question. The election of Donald Trump in the US and uncertainty of Transatlantic relations and global trade rules that came with him have become a new and important factor in international politics. Brexit has shown that the “ever closer Union” slogan rings hollow and that the process of EU expansion is reversible. A string of national elections has shown how deep and complex political issues in Europe really are, and how centre-left parties are under pressure with diminishing vote share. On top of that, political debates about the internal EU reform are yet to offer any tangible result.
  • Topic: Regional Cooperation, European Union, Brexit, Election watch, Transatlantic Relations
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe
  • Author: Tom Keatinge, Emil Dall
  • Publication Date: 11-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
  • Abstract: Sanctions are a key tool of foreign policy but have taken on greater salience over the last 20 years as governments have reached for leverage in negotiations but foregone the use of force. During this period, the alignment of the design and implementation of sanctions by the European Union and the United States has, on the whole, been an article of faith as the transatlantic allies have pursued mutual foreign policy objectives. Yet despite the consistency of objectives, the bureaucratic structures, technical mechanisms, and processes by which the European Union and the United States design and implement sanctions differ significantly. These differences—always present—have been amplified by the current stresses in transatlantic relations and may be further exacerbated when the United Kingdom leaves the European Union in March 2019. The reasons behind these differences are myriad and touch upon both structural matters (such as the construction of the European Union and the manner in which its member states can enact policy) and more philosophical matters, as the focus on due process and human rights in EU sanctions policy demonstrates. But given the importance of transatlantic ties and cooperation in managing the sorts of problems that sanctions are usually developed to address, it is important for both the United States and the European Union to work through these differences. Toward that goal, this paper provides a European perspective on US sanctions activity, where there are differences in approach, in particular EU attitudes toward secondary sanctions put in place by the United States, and it explains the complications that may result from the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union. The paper concludes with recommendations for how the European Union can address the challenges it faces in achieving an effective sanctions policy. In short, it recommends the following: The European Union should work through its structural issues to create a more decisive and effective EU sanctions policy. The implementation and enforcement of sanctions at the member state level must be improved, and a formal EU-level sanctions body is needed to independently monitor compliance with sanctions across the European Union. A clear mechanism for ensuring the coordination and effectiveness of EU-UK post-Brexit sanctions policy must be established. The global centrality of both the European Union’s economy and the United Kingdom’s financial sector combine to present a powerful sanctions force and must thus be closely coordinated to ensure maximum effectiveness. The European Union should directly address the matter of human rights exemptions by incorporating it as a key consideration of the EU-level sanctions body identified in the first recommendation. The European Union should establish a clear channel for human rights exemptions throughout the lifetime of sanctions regimes. The European Union should consider its options to address the ability of non-EU actors to abuse EU-originating supply chains and financial services, which represents a considerable sanctions implementation vulnerability. Finally, though US-EU misalignment on sanctions is growing, policy makers must stay seized of the necessity to maintain and improve communications and coordination to prevent current schisms from having serious long-term effects on international security.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Sanctions, European Union, Brexit
  • Political Geography: United States, United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Peter Round, Bastain Giegerich, Christian Mölling
  • Publication Date: 06-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Institute for Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: The United Kingdom is among the few European Union member states with full-spectrum military and defence-industrial capabilities. Through Brexit, the EU could lose 20% of its military and 40% of its defence-industrial capabilities, and thereby its influence and credibility as a security actor. The pertinent question is how to arrange the UK’s future participation in European defence.  Decision-making on defence matters in the international arena requires skilled diplomacy and the momentum to carry plans through the scrutiny of multiple parliaments. The EU risks inaction through inertia without the UK’s soft powers, placing strategic decision-making at risk. The Union needs the UK’s military enablers, but only until it can deliver its own. In addition, with the UK’s ‘special relationship’ with the United States suffering, London’s influence is on the wane.  More autonomy for the EU is possible within a framework of political partners that reaches beyond the EU, incorporating actors such as the UK, and also Norway.
  • Topic: Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, European Union, Brexit
  • Political Geography: United States, United Kingdom, Europe, North America
  • Author: Torben Schütz, Christian Mölling
  • Publication Date: 06-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Institute for Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: The European defence technological industrial base (DTIB) represents a core element of European defence and deterrence – it is a strategic asset. Strong defence industries multiply the deterrent effect of the armed forces. However, national industries in most countries cannot offer the full range of supplies needed by national armed forces. Despite the fragmentary nature of its industries, Europe collectively has most of the range of defence-industrial capabilities, enabling, at least notionally, security of supply for EU and NATO partners. The UK’s share of defence-related turnover among European companies is almost 40%. The UK also makes defence-industrial contributions to many multi- national projects. While Brexit does not remove the UK’s defence-industrial base from the wider European environment, it will complicate its involvement. The EU’s growing role in defence-industrial matters, through regulation and financial resources, is shaping the wider European DTIB. At the same time, the Union’s ambition as a security actor creates an obligation to ensure that European partners outside the EU can contribute as effectively as possible to European defence and deterrence. In order to do this: The UK, EU institutions and EU governments should work toward as close a common understanding as possible that safeguarding a sustainable, innovative and competitive European defence industry is in the strategic interests of all political partners in Europe. The UK and its EU partners should establish politically and structurally significant flagship armament projects. Such projects would support a shared objective, namely to consolidate the still fragmented European DTIB, and in the process make it more competitive. A European Defence Industrial Review should be launched to help identify key industrial branches and companies that are of structural relevance to the European DTIB, and therefore to European defence and deterrence. For future regulations related to the defence industry, the EU should take a ‘systemic view’, i.e. also take into account how a regulation affects European partners and contributors outside the EU.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, European Union, Brexit
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe, London
  • Author: Douglas Barrie
  • Publication Date: 06-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Institute for Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: The United Kingdom should seek to continue to support defence-technology cooperation with the European Union and partner states across all military domains. Avoiding, or at least minimising, the second-order effects of Brexit on wider defence cooperation with European partners will be easier if the UK is directly involved in the EU’s defence-technology initiatives. Specific opportunities present themselves across the military domains: Pursue cooperation in the air domain with regard to future combat- aircraft technology. While collaboration at the platform level is unlikely in the near term, exploring common R&D in key systems, such as radar, propulsion, avionics, sensors and weapons, is achievable. In the land domain, explore partnership with France and Germany on participating in the development of a next-generation main battle tank. Collaboration on applicable technologies at the component and sub- system levels should also be encouraged. This could include armour and armament R&D, and laser weapons. In the maritime domain, support cooperation in the air-defence arena, including the use of laser weapons for ship self-defence, and the use of naval vessels for ballistic-missile defence. In the space domain, examine potential cooperation on next-generation communication satellite requirements, and wider collaboration on geospatial intelligence.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, European Union, Brexit, Maritime, Space
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe, France, London, Germany, Brussels
  • Author: Lucie béraud-Sudreau
  • Publication Date: 06-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Institute for Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: To continue United Kingdom participation in European Union defence cooperation:  The UK, the European Commission and EU member states should strive to avoid near-term decisions that would shut out the UK from future participation in EU defence policies.  Pursue agreement on the nature of a ‘third-state’ position as applied to the UK, ensuring the goals of Brussels and London are met.  Identify ways for London to show its commitment to supporting the EU’s defence ambitions, signalling clearly a change from previous opposition.  Brussels and London need to agree the key preconditions that will under- pin any deal over the European Defence Agency (EDA), the European Defence Fund (EDF) and Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO).  The UK should aim to ensure a single point of entry through the European Defence Agency for defence cooperation with the EU, in the absence of a Commission directorate-general for security and defence. Reach agreement on an overarching financial contribution covering access to the EDA, the EDF and PESCO, while London also commits to contributing funding to specific projects it wishes to take part in.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, European Union, Brexit
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe, London, Brussels
  • Publication Date: 06-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Institute for Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: The United Kingdom, having expressed interest in a strong EU–UK security partnership and having indicated that, if anything, its commitment to NATO will be even stronger after Brexit, has an opportunity to be a leader and facilitator in the context of EU–NATO cooperation in meeting emerging threats. Several of the priority areas and action items defined by these two organisations, following a declaration to enhance their cooperation at NATO’s 2016 Warsaw Summit, play to the UK’s strengths: To increase the level of cooperation between the EU and NATO, and in order to implement the cooperation agenda, the UK should invest both financially and in terms of personnel, via voluntary national contributions to NATO. The UK taking on a leadership role in the area of inter-organisational cooperation would signal to EU partners that stronger support for NATO is not intended to weaken EU initiatives; it is an opportunity to stress the complementary nature of EU and NATO capabilities. Given its limited resources, the UK could, in effect, use engagement in EU–NATO cooperation to hedge its bets on both organisations. Stronger support for NATO can directly benefit the EU’s security and defence initiatives, while making sure that cooperation results in added value in both multinational frameworks, rather than fostering institutional competition.
  • Topic: NATO, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, European Union, Brexit
  • Political Geography: United States, United Kingdom, Europe, London, Brussels
  • Author: Douglas Barrie, Ben Barry, Henry Boyd, Marie-Louise Chagnaud, Nick Childs, Bastain Giegerich, Christain Möelling, Torben Schutz
  • Publication Date: 11-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Institute for Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: he ability of the European Union to act in defence, today and in the future, is an important reference point in the debate about EU strategic autonomy in the context of Brexit. The EU has set itself a military level of ambition. Under the heading of the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP), EU member states want to be able to conduct a range of military operations. Together with the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), this study assesses to what extent the EU is able to fulfil this level of ambition, today and with an outlook towards 2030. The IISS and DGAP have developed policy-compliant scenarios to assess where possible capability shortfalls lie. Our findings benchmark existing and future EU member state capabilities against the force requirements the EU level of ambition generates.
  • Topic: Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, European Union, Brexit
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe, London, Germany
  • Author: Piret Kuusik
  • Publication Date: 12-2018
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
  • Abstract: The Brexit process is changing the balance of power and coalition politics in the European Union. This report analyzes the shared interests and aims of the six Nordic and Baltic member states (NB6, consisting of Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania and Sweden) in the EU, focusing on three broad areas: open society, open economy and shared security. The authors argue that, in a changing Union and an increasingly volatile global context, it is time for the Nordic-Baltic member states to cooperate more strategically in matters where common positions can be identified, such as protection of shared values, reform of the eurozone, free trade, digitalisation and regional security. Their cooperation needs to be flexible and open to like-minded countries beyond the NB6 group. One of the groupings that has received much limelight is the new ‘Hanseatic League’, consisting of the Nordic and Baltic member states, the Netherlands and Ireland. The authors highlight the limited nature and flexible format of this grouping. The report ends with a set of policy recommendations regarding future Nordic-Baltic cooperation in the EU.
  • Topic: International Affairs, Brexit
  • Political Geography: Baltic Sea
  • Author: Robert Cox
  • Publication Date: 09-2018
  • Content Type: Journal Article
  • Journal: American Diplomacy
  • Institution: American Diplomacy
  • Abstract: The Europe-US relationship is based on two pillars: a belief in and a promotion of a rules-based international order; a shared set of common values. Both of these pieces of mortar are crumbling. But the partners are not yet in the divorce court. Meanwhile Europeans increasingly sense that their familiar and otherwise comfortable world has gone.
  • Topic: International Relations, Economics, European Union, Brexit
  • Political Geography: Europe, North America, United States of America
  • Author: Jo Hunt, Paul Laffin, Philippa Whitford, Chris Deerin
  • Publication Date: 03-2018
  • Content Type: Video
  • Institution: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
  • Abstract: Speakers -Dr Jo Hunt – Reader, Cardiff University -Paul Laffin – EU Public Affairs Manager, British Medical Association -Dr Philippa Whitford – Member of Parliament, Central Ayrshire -Chris Deerin, Contributing editor, New Statesman
  • Topic: Health Care Policy, Brexit, National Health Service (NHS)
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Roberta Guerrina, Sophie Walker, Lucy Harris, Charlotte Galpin, Daniel Wincott
  • Publication Date: 09-2018
  • Content Type: Video
  • Institution: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
  • Abstract: -Roberta Guerrina, University of Surrey -Sophie Walker, Women’s Equality Party -Lucy Harris, Leavers of London -Charlotte Galpin, University of Birmingham -Chair: Daniel Wincott, Cardiff University
  • Topic: Gender Issues, European Union, Brexit
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Mary-Ann Stephenson, Faiza Shaheen, Julian Jessop, Gemma Tetlow
  • Publication Date: 09-2018
  • Content Type: Video
  • Institution: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
  • Abstract: -Mary-Ann Stephenson, Women’s Budget Group -Faiza Shaheen, Director of CLASS -Julian Jessop, Institute of Economic Affairs -Chair: Gemma Tetlow, Institute for Government
  • Topic: Gender Issues, European Union, Economy, Brexit
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe
  • Author: Anand Menon, Bobby Duffy, Madeleine Sumption, Ben Page
  • Publication Date: 11-2018
  • Content Type: Video
  • Institution: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
  • Abstract: Speakers include Professor Anand Menon, Professor Bobby Duffy, Madeleine Sumption and Ben Page
  • Topic: European Union, Brexit, Negotiation
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe