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16641. Is Yemen Turkey’s Next Stop after Libya?

Author:
Hay Ertan Cohen Yanarocak
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Ankara’s military interventions in Iraq, Syria and Libya as well as its growing presence in the eastern Mediterranean constitutes a radical change in Turkish foreign policy. Its recent success in Libya demonstrates Ankara’s regional heft. Turkey’s next intervention is probably in Yemen.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Hegemony, Influence, and Intervention
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Turkey, Libya, and Yemen

16642. The Assassination of Hisham al-Hashimi: A Warning from Iraqi Shia Militias

Author:
Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Killing of prominent adviser shows the determination of Iranian-backed Shia militias to resist any attempt to curtail their powers and freedom of action.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Governance, Leadership, and Militias
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

16643. Shortening mandatory service is a danger to Israel

Author:
Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Soldiers in uniform for less time means the army has less time to train them and can make use of their skills for a shorter period. In addition, there is no benefit in releasing potential young workers early at a time of rife unemployment.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Armed Forces, Israel Defense Forces (IDF), and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

16644. Security Considerations and National Unity Require Jordan Valley Sovereignty

Author:
Eran Lerman and Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The American peace plan provides a historic opportunity to break the futile paradigm based on the 1967 lines and ensure Israeli national security for the long term. In terms of security – protecting Israel, stabilizing Jordan, and preventing a terrorist takeover of a future Palestinian entity – and given the supreme importance of national cohesion, it is imperative to focus on the Jordan Valley and the Jerusalem envelope.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Peace, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

16645. Erdogan’s Arc of Destabilization

Author:
Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
From northwest Iraq to Tripoli on Libya’s African coast, Turkey is flexing its muscles – without the slightest nod to the supposedly ‘pro-Western’ and ‘pro-NATO’ orientation that Turkey’s Western apologists like to recall.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Conflict, Regionalism, Strategic Stability, and Destabilization
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Asia

16646. Apply Sovereignty to the Jordan Valley, Now

Author:
Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The Valley is Israel’s only defensible eastern border and Israel’s sovereignty there is vital for the demilitarization of a future Palestinian state
Topic:
Defense Policy, Sovereignty, Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

16647. On Viruses and Missiles

Author:
Uzi Rubin
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The lesson learned from the current crisis is that restrictions imposed to protect the public are futile unless the public is convinced that it is at risk. To this end, government must communicate to the public with clear-cut data and logical arguments.
Topic:
Security, Missile Defense, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

16648. Qods Day Advances Iran’s Regional Aspirations

Author:
Yossi Mansharof
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
“Qods Day” reflects Tehran’s determination to annihilate Israel, a pillar of Iranian foreign policy. It also is an important part of “exporting” the Islamic Revolution.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Ideology
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Israel

16649. Washington needs a policy in Libya as Turkey’s presence grows

Author:
Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
A strong Turkish foothold in Libya threatens the free flow of energy resources from the Eastern Mediterranean basin to Europe as planned by Cyprus, Egypt, Greece, Italy and Israel.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Energy Policy, Hegemony, and Intervention
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Turkey, Libya, North America, and United States of America

16650. Reject Iran’s Request for an IMF Loan

Author:
Yossi Mansharof
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Under the pretext of separation between regime and people, Iran seeks $5 billion in IMF emergency funding to fight COVID-19. This would significantly undermine the pressure on Iran being applied by US sanctions, and therefore the loan should be denied.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Sanctions, Pandemic, IMF, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

16651. Rising Tensions and Security Chaos in Syria’s Deraa Province

Author:
Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
A four-way contest under way between the Assad regime, Russian interests, Iranian interests, and unreconciled former rebels.
Topic:
Security, Conflict, Regionalism, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Syria

16652. Syria’s dictator Bashar Assad faces renewed challenges at all levels

Author:
Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Bashar Assad is not about to fall, But economic deterioration, regime infighting, sanctions and unrest are combining to place his regime under renewed, severe pressure
Topic:
Economics, Fragile/Failed State, Governance, Authoritarianism, and Leadership
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

16653. Lebanon’s Economic Collapse: Consequences for Israel

Author:
Aiman Mansour
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Israel should study the strategic consequences of the continuous economic deterioration in Lebanon, with an emphasis on the Shiite community’s situation. It might favor Hizballah.
Topic:
Economics, Military Strategy, Conflict, Hezbollah, and State Sponsored Terrorism
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

16654. Cyber-Warfare between Iran and Israel

Author:
Omer Dostri
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The recent reciprocal cyber-attacks attributed to Israel and Iran were meant to set red lines on the non-kinetic dimension of war.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Cybersecurity, Conflict, and Digitalization
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Israel

16655. Phased Territorial Implementation of the Trump Peace Plan

Author:
Eran Lerman and Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The Trump Plan is the most realistic route for progress towards the goal of “two states for two peoples.” Therefore, the Israeli national unity government should embrace the Trump plan in its entirety, including negotiations towards establishment of a Palestinian state, and at the same time act (in the first stage) to apply Israeli law to the Jordan Valley and strategically significant areas in the Jerusalem envelope, such as Maaleh Adumim and Gush Etzion. An Israeli consensus exists regarding these areas.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, Territorial Disputes, and Peace
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

16656. The Outlawing of Hezbollah in Germany

Author:
Omer Dostri
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Germany’s decision is an important step in the international effort against Hezbollah. It will hamper the criminal network and terrorist activities of Hezbollah in Europe and even in Lebanon. Hezbollah should be outlawed across Europe.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Terrorism, Military Strategy, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

16657. The Struggle for the Mediterranean: The EMGF Stake in the Libyan Civil War

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Dramatic gains on the battlefield by the forces loyal to the Turkish-backed “Government of National Accord” in western Libya have given Erdogan a victory, which may endanger the future of the eastern Mediterranean. Italy, Greece, Cyprus, Egypt and Israel must coordinate their policies in response. A tripartite Greek-Cypriot-Israeli summit should be held urgently to annul the GNA-Libyan EEZ agreement, to present an alternative map of the Mediterranean, and to encourage a robust reaction of the EU. The US must be persuaded to pressure Turkey revoke the EEZ MoU (while still letting Erdogan take pride in saving the GNA from ruin).
Topic:
Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Hegemony, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Italy, Cyprus, and Mediterranean

16658. Is Iran Gaining a Foothold in the West Bank?

Author:
Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
A moribund terrorist group, the PFLP, is experiencing a revival and launching terror attacks, with help from Iran.
Topic:
Terrorism, Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

16659. Build Jerusalem

Author:
Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
US recognition of the eternal city as Israel’s capital and the Trump peace plan pave the way forward.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, Peace, and Statehood
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

16660. Coronavirus has not changed the Middle East

Author:
Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Conflicts persist, and the revisionist powers continue their disruptive behavior. This includes Iranian subversion and acceleration of its nuclear project, as well as Turkey’s expansionism in Syria.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Conflict, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Regional Power
Political Geography:
Iran, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria