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15921. Regional Developmentalism in West Africa: The Case for Commodity-Based Industrialisation through Regional Cooperation in the Cocoa-Chocolate Sector

Author:
Jonathan Bashi Rudahindwa and Sophie van Huellen
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
Regional integration occupies a prominent place in the economic policies of most Sub- Saharan African countries. However, despite different waves of initiatives across the African continent, the majority of African regional schemes have not managed to achieve their ambitious goal of promoting sustainable development through trade integration in Africa. In light of this observation, using the West African cocoa- chocolate sector as a case study, we propose the regional developmentalism paradigm as an alternative approach to regionalism in Africa, placing a particular emphasis on the use of regional and sub-regional approaches to development. Instead of full-fledged trade liberalisation and indiscriminate economic integration, the regional developmentalism paradigm advocates for state-led trade facilitation, regulatory convergence and capacity-building through the adoption of policies directed at strategic sectors. We evaluate the potential of the regional developmentalism paradigm to promote economic transformation and commodity-based industrialisation against the shortcomings of the current regional integration approach embodied in the institutional framework of ECOWAS.
Topic:
Development, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Commodities, Regionalism, and Industrialization
Political Geography:
Africa and West Africa

15922. Financialisation in Developing Countries: Approaches, Concepts, and Metrics

Author:
Costas Lapavitsas and Aylin Soydan
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
Financialisation in developing countries has been extensively researched but its characteristic features and its relationship to developed countries remain unclear. Drawing on a review of the literature, this paper shows, first, that it should be distinguished from financial liberalisation and globalisation. Two fundamental theoretical approaches are subsequently considered, which establish its derivative character relative to developed countries, namely ‘subordinate’ and ‘dependent’ financialisation. The paper then demonstrates its characteristic features by examining the empirical literature, including the use of metrics. Financialisation in developing countries is highly variable and different from that in developed countries regarding the conduct of non-financial enterprises, banks, and households. It is also a source of economic vulnerability.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, Finance, and Banking
Political Geography:
Global Focus

15923. Education Reform in Post-Revolutionary Tunisia: Between Covid-19 and a Divided Civil Society

Author:
Tiziana della Ragione
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
Despite the widespread perception that Tunisia has successfully navigated its post-revolutionary transition from authoritarian to democratic rule, the pandemic is laying bare some of the disappointments since Tunisia's 2010-2011 revolution. In particular, the coronavirus crisis has exposed civil society’s failure to achieve meaningful reform in Tunisia's ailing public education system.
Topic:
Civil Society, Education, Reform, Arab Spring, Revolution, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
North Africa and Tunisia

15924. A New Chapter in Algeria’s Tumultuous Politics

Author:
Daniel Zisenwine
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
The Algerian government’s recent referendum on new constitutional amendments was heralded as the start of a new political era. The referendum, symbolically held on November 1, the day Algeria’s armed struggle for independence from France commenced in 1954, was publicized under the official slogan “November 1954 Liberation; November 2020 Change”. The vote was intended to address the grievances expressed by the Hirak protest movement, which throughout 2019 staged swelling weekly protests demanding sweeping changes in the country’s political system. But the vote fell far short of the government’s expectations. Largely boycotted by Hirak supporters, voter turnout was very low (23.4 percent). Overshadowing the referendum was the news that Algeria’s president, ʿAbd al-Majid Tebboune, had been transferred several days earlier to a hospital in Germany, allegedly for “medical checkups,” but was later reported to have been infected with the COVID-19 virus. At the time of this writing, Tebboune remains in Germany. Although he has reportedly recovered from his illness, looming questions about his condition and ability to resume his duties, along with a potential power vacuum continue to overshadow Algerian politics. These events have been further compounded by the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on Algeria, and the government’s difficulty in responding to the crisis. Algeria’s economy has been battered by the outbreak and other factors, including plummeting oil prices, which affect a major export commodity and an important income source. All of these challenges add new features to Algeria’s tumultuous political history, and highlight the growing volatility that could further affect domestic stability.
Topic:
Politics, Reform, Income Inequality, Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Algeria and North Africa

15925. Comments on the Electoral Strength of the Joint Arab List

Author:
Assaf Shapira
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
Despite the sharp rise in the voter participation rate in Arab towns in the elections for the 23rd Knesset, the Joint Arab List has probably not achieved its full electoral potential. This is because the Arab sector’s turnout was lower by almost 7 percent than the national average. If the voter participation rate had been 95 percent, the Joint Arab List would have received only one additional seat – an increase from 15 to 16. One of the reasons for this is that it did not sign a surplus agreement with other parties and therefore its chance of receiving additional seats in the division of surplus votes is lower than that of the other parties. The adoption of mandatory voting in Israel may raise the voter participation rate on election day; however, it is likely that such a move would meet intense opposition in the Arab community, most of which opposes the adoption of such an obligation. Any attempt to introduce mandatory voting in Israel must be part of a dialogue and cooperation with representatives of the Arab community. It must also be accompanied by practical steps to improve the situation of Arab citizens, such as amending the Nation-State Law and the allocation of additional resources to the Arab population.
Topic:
Minorities, Elections, Voting, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

15926. Joe Biden’s US Election Victory in the Eyes of Egyptians

Author:
Michael Barak
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In this issue of Beehive, Michael Barak analyzes the reactions in the social media to the election of Joe Biden to the US Presidency among supporters and opponents of the Egyptian regime, including exiled dissidents. The growing probability of Joe Biden victory during the election week gained widespread attention on social media among Egyptian citizens and exiled dissidents. While al-Sisi’s supporters responded coldly, expressing concern about the tightening of the new administration’s policy towards the Egyptian regime, Egyptian exiled dissidents showed mixed feelings. On the one hand, there are those who express optimism, joy, and anticipation for a change of the American policy that they criticize for being sympathetic to the Egyptian regime. On the other hand, there are those who seek to cool the sense of euphoria, arguing that the American presidency does not intend to change its sympathetic attitude towards its traditional allies. Yet, some of the Egyptian exiled dissidents believe that this is the right time to erode the power of the Egyptian regime.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, and Social Media
Political Geography:
Middle East, North America, Egypt, and United States of America

15927. G20 in Riyadh: Saudi Arabia’s Global Moment

Author:
Adam Hoffman
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In the December issue of Beehive, Adam Hoffman analyses the online discourse on Twitter revolving around the G20 summit hosted in Riyadh in November, among Saudi social media users and the key messages promoted by the Saudi regime. Last November, Saudi Arabia hosted the fifteenth summit of the Group of Twenty (G20). The G20 is an important international economic forum, in which 19 governments and the European Union participate. This year, the summit was for the first time hosted in an Arab capital, and Riyadh saw it as a unique opportunity to present itself to the world. Despite this, the event was overshadowed by the global Coronavirus pandemic and criticism of Saudi Arabia’s poor human rights record. Moreover, the current presidential transition in the US, following Joe Biden’s victory in the recent elections, added an additional layer of complexity, in light of the potential implications of a Biden Administration for US-Saudi relations.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, G20, Internet, and Social Media
Political Geography:
Saudi Arabia and Gulf Nations

15928. Paris, Algiers Concerned over Mali’s Transitional Regime

Author:
Rina Bassist
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In our latest issue of Ifriqiya, Rina Bassist discusses the regional and international challenges facing Mali's new transitional government, and its precarious security situation. Can Mali’s new government regain territorial control and restore personal security? For the past four months, Mali has been governed by a transition government that was set up after a military coup d’état in the summer of 2020. The international community initially condemned the coup, but it has since been forced to accept this reality, and has been encouraging Mali’s military and the transition government to advance the implementation of the 2015 Algiers peace accords. Yet actions taken so far by the military and the new regime do not bode well for the future of the country, and are showing signs of weakness vis-à-vis a multitude of armed groups, including several jihadi militant organizations.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Transition
Political Geography:
Africa, France, Algeria, and Mali

15929. Israel and the UAE: Old New Friends

Author:
Paul Rivlin
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In this issue of Iqtisadi, Paul Rivlin analyzes economic factors involved in the recent UAE-Israel normalization accords. In August 2020, the US, Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced the full normalization of relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates. In September, the Abraham Accords were signed at the White House between Israel, the UAE, Bahrain and the US. The establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel and the UAE and Israel and Bahrain opens the door for trade, investment and cooperation. Israel is looking for markets, investments and joint projects. The UAE is dominated by two emirates: Abu Dhabi and Dubai. Abu Dhabi is the main oil producer in the UAE and is thus one of the largest in the world. It has a strong interest in reorienting its economy away from oil and has invested in green technologies. Dubai has invested heavily in real estate and tourism and also wants to diversify its economy. Israel is a very suitable trading partner given its strength in hi-tech.
Topic:
International Relations, Treaties and Agreements, Economy, and Normalization
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United Arab Emirates

15930. Israel is Turkey’s Neighbor Across the Sea: Delimitation of the Maritime Jurisdiction Areas between Turkey and Israel

Author:
Cihat Yayci
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In this issue of Turkeyscope, Retired Admiral Prof. Cihat Yayci and Zeynep Ceyhan from Bahçeşehir University discuss the possibility of signing a new maritime delimitation agreement between Turkey and Israel. As the architect of Turkey's "Blue Homeland Doctrine" and the Turkish-Libyan maritime delimitation agreement, Yayci and Ceyhan argue that Turkey and Israel should become neighbors in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Natural Resources, Maritime, and Jurisdiction
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

15931. Pakistan Security Report 2019

Author:
Safdar Sial, Muhammad Amir Rana, Umar Farooq, Anam Fatima, Muhammad Akba Notezai, and Najam U Din
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
Abstract:
In 2019, Pakistan witnessed a further decline in the number of terrorist incidents and consequent casualties. The statistics of Pakistan Security Report 2019 show that terrorist attacks this year decreased by around 13 percent as compared to 2018, and the number of people killed in these attacks plummeted by 40pc. Indeed, there has been a gradual decrease in terrorist attacks and casualties since 2009 (with the exception of 2013, when a surge in sectarian violence mainly contributed to a rise in attacks and casualties). Continuous anti-militant operational and surveillance campaigns by security forces and police counterterrorism departments, as well as some counter-extremism actions taken under the National Action Plan, have apparently helped sustain that declining trend 2013 onwards. However, these plummeting numbers do not suggest, in any way, that the threat of terrorism has been completely eliminated. Certainly, most terrorist groups have been weakened but they are still present in physical and virtual spaces.
Topic:
National Security, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:
Pakistan

15932. Cartel Presence by State; Jalisco Nueva Generacion Cartel(CJNG) Achieves the Top Spot in the Country-Wide Territorial Campaign, Surpassing Sinaloa Cartel’s Control Throughout Mexico

Author:
Machiko Olivera
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
TRAC: Terrorism Research & Analysis Consortium
Abstract:
Despite the fact that the federal government has ordered the deployment of the armed forces in the country to combat drug traffickers, at least nineteen (19) cartels have active operations throughout the country, of which four (4) have a presence in more than ten (10) state – Jalisco Nueva Generación Cartel (CJNG) being the largest.
Topic:
War on Drugs, Violent Extremism, Trafficking, Drugs, and Legal Sector
Political Geography:
United States and Mexico

15933. Inside Extreme Left Wing Antifascist & Anarchist Group ‘The Set’

Author:
Julia Sweet
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
TRAC: Terrorism Research & Analysis Consortium
Abstract:
According to the authorities, The Set group planned to conduct revolts and terror attacks during the World Cup of 2018 and had plotted attacks to occur prior to the presidential election. Allegedly, its members plotted attacks on traffic police patrols, Post Office buildings, facilities of “United Russia” political party, etc. The Set’s main goal was the destabilization of the Russian state.
Topic:
Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Anarchism, Political Extremism, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:
Russia

15934. The New Institutionalism: A tool for analysing defence and security institutions

Author:
Valerijs Bodnieks
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The aim of this paper is to investigate new institutionalism, its trends and their application in the analysis of security and defence institutions. The research is based on an analysis of theoretical literature to explore a system of assumptions about new institutionalism. Different approaches have been examined, including historical, rational choice, and sociological approaches. Historical institutionalism can be applied to identify the usefulness of past decisions, policy choices, appropriate strategy choices, and specific acquisitions for future policymakers, whereas rational choice institutionalism allows us to determine the influence of security and defence institutions on actors and their choices, how actors use the institutional framework for their own benefit, and how actors’ choices influence the state policy. Finally, sociological institutionalism focuses on recognising actors’ cognitive scripts and the changes they undergo, as well as causes that influence and determine cognitive scripts. Defence institutions are based on a precise regulative and normative framework and cognitive scripts of the highest authorities. Therefore, the external framework and the particular political impact on the supranational level can cause changes on the national level. New institutionalism provides an important perspective on the specifics of security and defence policy, actors’ individual and collective goals, their strategies and interests as well as cognitive scripts.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Institutions, and Rational Choice
Political Geography:
Global Focus

15935. Assessment of the effectiveness of the security features of personal wireless networks

Author:
Janusz Gierszewski and Michał Matuśkiewicz
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
Wireless network communication standards have become very common due to the huge benefits of their application. The use of radio waves to create networks has reduced infrastructure costs and increased the mobility of devices. The advantages of wireless communication (WLAN) also pose a challenge to the security of transmitted data. However, the use of a wireless signal poses certain threats to network security. The aim of the study was to analyse problems related to the security of WLAN 802.11. and assess its resistance to various attack strategies. It was assumed that wireless networks have an insufficient level of security. The assumed assumption is verifiable due to the ability to monitor events in networks. In order to verify the hypothesis, a number of experiments have been carried out in laboratory conditions, concerning the currently used WLAN protections from the IEEE 802.11 family of standards. The electromagnetic waves used for communication are available to the public at a distance of a few / several dozen metres from the communicating devices. It is easy to monitor air traffic using a network card that operates in monitor mode. The communication itself cannot be secured in any way, so data encryption is one way of secure transmission. During the research, the applied security features were successfully broken with the help of publicly available tools. The obtained results are distinguished by a high level of objectivity and reliability in the assessment of applied wireless network security. It was shown that there are still imperfections in the security and it is possible to break the security measures. The consequences of attacks are very serious and lead to a breach of each of the attributes of secure information. Practice has shown that it is impossible to create a wireless network that is fully secure. The findings of the study should be used to develop methods to improve information security, as well as to raise users’ awareness of existing threats. Not all users of wireless networks are aware of how easy some of the commonly used security features are to break.
Topic:
Security, Cybersecurity, and Networks
Political Geography:
Global Focus

15936. COVID-19 as a prestige-promoting mechanism: PESCO framework as an opportunity for EU member states

Author:
Valerijs Bodnieks and Sintija Broka
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The goal of this study is to identify whether PESCO can be one of the tools for future projects in medicine and whether it can be used to strengthen the military medicine of the EU and, simultaneously, be in synergy with the civilian sector by providing support to the civilian field, and, finally, can EU member states increase their prestige through PESCO. The study, which is based on qualitative research methods, shows that based on Latvia’s case, strengthening the medical field by participating in PESCO can lead to countries promoting their prestige on the international stage, as well as strengthening civil-military cooperation to build much stronger policies within the EU member states. Firstly, the findings showed that from all 47 PESCO projects, only two are related to the field of medicine. Secondly, with the whole world being affected by COVID-19, PESCO can be used for new projects related to the field of medicine. Thirdly, different types of projects can be initiated under PESCO, for example, a new kind of transport for evacuation, new types of medical devices, the creation of new regional laboratories and research centres, development of new analytical and biotechnological equipment, improvement of logistic chains, the establishment of unique and specific training institutions for civilian and military medics, and the development and use of robotic technologies or drones. Finally, countries that engage in epidemiological security measures during COVID 19 are clearly enhancing their prestige by not only demonstrating their readiness to react to the current situation, but also by taking practical action.
Topic:
Defense Policy, European Union, Realism, COVID-19, and PESCO
Political Geography:
Europe

15937. Fitness OSINT: Identifying and tracking military and security personnel with fitness applications for intelligence gathering purposes

Author:
Cyprian Aleksander Kozera
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the possibility of tracking and identifying military and other security personnel, operating in secretive or restricted areas. Such exposure might have dire consequences from the perspective of counterintelligence or physical security. Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) and Social Media Intelligence methods and techniques were employed to gather and analyse information on security and military personnel and expose their activities on-line. The case studies presented in the article exemplify utilisation of the new “Suunto” fitness application for open-source-based intelligence research. Despite general Operational Security rules that require all personal data such as names, pictures and habits to be kept discreet, open-source based research with one of the most popular fitness applications allowed the identification of military personnel and government agents operating in Afghanistan, Mali, Syria or working at national military facilities. In a single case, it took the author less than thirty minutes to identify personal details of a US Army soldier in Afghanistan and a Special Forces officer in one of the European countries and obtain their home addresses and pictures of them and their families. The results of the research show how OSINT techniques concerning fitness applications are useful both for intelligence and counterintelligence, specifically for malicious and terrorist purposes, and how necessary it is to make fitness and other, supposedly personal, activity private, especially for those who carry out sensitive missions and work in a restricted or secretive environment.
Topic:
Intelligence, Science and Technology, Armed Forces, and OSINT
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Syria, Mali, and Global Focus

15938. Testing the efficiency of laser technology to destroy the rogue drones

Author:
Mohamed Zied Chaari and Somaya Al-Maadeed
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
A large body of research shows the increasing numbers of drones attacks despite RF jammer systems and other technologies. This incredible increase in drone attacks means that the existing solutions are not enough to stop it. The objective of the article is to present a study on the combination of a laser beam with an optical focusing system to create a new cannon to crush rogue drones. The experimental method relies on an innovative design incorporating a laser module and groups of optical lenses to focus the power in one point to carbonize any target. Specifically, it is the laser with an adjustable lens position from 477mm to 617mm to focus the laser beam on the desired distant object. We measured the necessary time to burnt acrylic plastic, wood, and hard carton from a distance of 55 metres. It was noticed that the laser efficiency is proportional to the laser power and time the cannon is turned on. Tests on the laser cannon revealed that laser burner technology can destroy illegal drones. However, it was found that the laser is affected by adverse weather conditions, such as fog, rain, and clouds. Apart from that, the frailty of this technique is connected with the stabilizing system requirements, energy, overheating, and the time needed to destroy an object. Regardless of the drawbacks of the technique, the laser is the only solution with high efficiency that can ruin or intercept autonomously programmed drones, as this cannot be achieved by the RF jammer or any other solutions. The procedure can be repeated with new changeables to achieve a postive result, specifically, the use CO2 laser tube with a high-efficiency chiller to increase the laser power.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Weapons, Drones, and Laser Technology
Political Geography:
Global Focus

15939. The Hellenic air – space violations by Turkish aircraft: A statistical assessment and a forecast

Author:
Vasileios Symeonidis and George Andrew Zombanakis
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This paper aims to assess the extent to which repeated attacks against sovereign Hellenic air space by Turkey along with the inevitably ensuing engagements between aircraft of the two sides follow a certain predetermined pattern of behaviour that can be detected based on a given statistical model, and if so, to what extent this pattern is predictable in terms of its intensity and the frequency of incidents. To this end, we use the Weibull statistical distribution as an appropriate tool for interpreting and quantifying the pattern of aggressive Turkish behaviour and calculating probabilities of occurrences. Based on this choice, we then proceed with a forecast of this behaviour in the near future. We provide specific mathematical formulae that can be readily used to calculate probabilities and forecast air space violations and engagements. Our models, based on historical data, assume that both Hellenic air space violations and engagement incidents will keep increasing but will inevitably reach a monthly maximum, constrained by the availability of property and human resources on the Turkish side. The conclusions drawn point to the fact that Turkey will at some point in the near future reach its capacity limits in terms of property and human resources used in such offensive exercises, and that there is very little that can be done to enhance the margins of such activities given the room provided by the Turkish economy, which seem to be prohibitive
Topic:
Security, Military Affairs, Airspace, and Military Exercises
Political Geography:
Turkey, Greece, and Mediterranean

15940. Operational control over non-state proxies

Author:
Filip Bryjka
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The intention of this paper is to clarify how state patrons control non-state proxy forces fighting on their behalf. In order to address the subject matter thoroughly, specific attention was paid to a number of questions including a) the criteria determining patronproxy relations, b) factors influencing the selection process of proxy forces, and c) principles governing the maximisation of potential benefits of using proxies, whilst simultaneously reducing risks and associated costs. The author applied a neo-realistic research paradigm to his work. Patron-proxy relations were presented in the context of the principal-agent theory, as well as through detailed analysis of ongoing scenarios involving Iran and Hezbollah, Russia and the Donbass separatists, Pakistan and Kashmiri militias, the US and Syrian rebels. The essence of war by proxy is to influence the strategic result of an armed conflict without direct, full-scale, military intervention. The use of non-state proxy, external actors is aimed at maximising their political goals and strategic interests whilst maintaining “plausible deniability”. By supporting non-state proxies, indirectly or by providing limited direct assistance, sponsors operate below the threshold of war. Empirical analysis of proxy war cases proves that such models may both guarantee “strategic victory” or become a “double-edged sword”. One of the key challenges for external powers engaged in war by proxy is to avoid unintended consequences (blowback). The author argues that elements such as ideology, ethnicity or religion do not necessarily ensure control over proxies, whilst the range of common goals and interests, and the level of the proxy’s dependency, are crucial.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Special Operations, Proxy War, and Hybrid Threats
Political Geography:
Global Focus