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15822. Turkish-Iranian Rift: An Opportunity for Israel
- Author:
- Hay Ertan Cohen Yanarocak
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Israel should exploit the expanding rift between Ankara and Tehran to normalize its relations with Turkey. This also could bring Turkey into the circle of countries supporting the Abraham Accords.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, Conflict, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, and Israel
15823. Events in Yemen are an indicator of broader regional dynamics
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The desire for an end to war in Yemen is understandable. Unfortunately, however, the US has leverage over only one of the sides.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Conflict, Peace, Regionalism, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Yemen, North America, United States of America, and Gulf Nations
15824. Iran’s Winged Horse Rocket: Another Step Towards Global Reach
- Author:
- Uzi Rubin
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The launch of Iran’s first solid propellant space rocket is highly significant.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Military Strategy, Space, and Emerging Technology
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
15825. srael and the Palestinian Issue in the Biden Era
- Author:
- Emmanuel Navon
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The next Israeli government would be well-advised to come-up with its own proposals for improving the life of Palestinians, both to further improve its own regional standing and to meet (some of the) administration’s expectations, in dialogue and partnership.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Governance, Leadership, Humanitarian Intervention, and Transition
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America
15826. Time to Update Israeli Policy Toward Syria
- Author:
- Aiman Mansour
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Israel should (silently) support a more flexible US policy towards the Syrian regime and the Russian presence in Syria, including the easing of sanctions on Syria, in order to decrease Assad’s dependence on Iranian support and to heighten the conflicts of interest between Moscow and Tehran.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, and United States of America
15827. Turkey, Pakistan: Inside the Ankara-Islamabad axis
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Turkey and Pakistan’s growing closeness has deep foundations. These are two countries following a similar trajectory.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Europe, Turkey, and Middle East
15828. Iran Must Not Be Allowed to Win the Nasty War in Yemen
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Many have raised understandable moral qualms (and practical questions) about conduct of war in Yemen. Indeed, the coalition fighting the Houthi uprising should be more attentive to the loss of innocent lives. But allowing Iran’s proxies to win the war in Yemen would have dangerous political and far-reaching strategic consequences for Israel, the region, and US interests.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Yemen
15829. Biden’s Eastern Mediterranean Agenda
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Establishing coherent US policy regarding brewing conflict in the eastern Mediterranean should be a Biden administration priority. By restraining Erdogan’s ambitions, the US can add to stability and rebuild bridges with key European players and traditional US allies. The governments of Israel and Greece, in consultation with Egypt, should work together to advance this perspective in Washington.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Leadership, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Greece, North America, United States of America, and Mediterranean
15830. More Loyal than the King
- Author:
- Emmanuel Navon
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- As a major Islamic nation, Pakistan has a duty towards the Muslim ummah which it must respect.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Religion, Leadership, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan and Middle East
15831. Erdogan using deniable private militias to destabilize the Middle East
- Author:
- Hay Ertan Cohen Yanarocak and Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Erdoğan has created a private military and paramilitary system. He deploys this apparatus for domestic and foreign operations without official oversight.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Leadership, Private Sector, and Public-Private Partnership
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Turkey
15832. Israel should stay wary of Turkey’s gifts
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Only the very optimistic could believe in real strategic cooperation between Erdogan’s regime and Jerusalem.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Conflict, Peace, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Israel
15833. Iran Raises the Stakes for Biden
- Author:
- Alexander Grinberg
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Giving Iran unearned incentives in advance of negotiations only will bring about more Iranian provocation.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Sanctions, and Negotiation
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
15834. Restoring American Bipartisan Commitment Towards Israel: A Moral Duty and Strategic Necessity
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- It is possible to restore American bipartisan backing for Israel. Therefore, it is important to avoid being too identified with President Trump, despite Israeli gratitude due to him for many of his policies. Bonds between Israel and American Jewry should be bolstered; bridges should be built to both sides of the aisle in Congress; and US defense establishment support should be solicited. All this, in view of Israel’s need to influence decisions in Washington on matters vital to its future.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Religion, Alliance, Domestic Policy, and Partisanship
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America
15835. Why Pakistan won’t be next to normalize with Israel
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Domestic constraints, support for Palestine and growing ties with Iran will likely continue to keep Pakistan and Israel apart.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Territorial Disputes, Normalization, and Domestic Policy
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
15836. Addressing the Challenges of Digital Lending for Credit Markets and Financial Systems in Low- and Middle-Income Countries
- Author:
- Christoph Sommer
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- The demand for digital financial services has risen significantly over recent years. The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated this trend and since the focus has shifted towards economic recovery, digital lending has become central. Digital credit products exploit traditional and alternative financial and non-financial data to provide access to finance for households and micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs). While it makes lending more inclusive for underserved or unserved households and firms, its increasing influence also brings forth challenges that need to be addressed by policy-makers and regulators in order to guarantee well-functioning credit markets and broader financial systems that foster sustainable economic development. A central concern is the adverse effect of digital lending on the stability and integrity of credit markets (and potentially the wider financial systems). The rise in non-performing loans, even before the COVID-19 crisis, has been associated with an increase in digital credits. New players with little experience enter the market and exploit regulatory arbitrage, but often these players have no (or only a partial) obligation to report to respective systems for sharing credit information or to supervisory bodies, which introduces severe vulnerabilities. In addition, the low entry threshold of digital financial products, due to their convenience and simplicity for customers, provides fertile ground for exploitative financialisation. Underserved households and MSMEs with limited financial literacy may be lured into taking up unsuitable and unaffordable digital credits, leading to over-indebtedness and bankruptcy. The last challenge arises from significantly shorter loan maturities in MSME lending if current forms of digital lending are scaled up. This is problematic, as firms need loans with longer maturities to realise productivity-enhancing medium- and long-term investments, many of which include complementary investments in labour, thereby contributing to an improvement in job quality.
- Topic:
- Development, Finance, COVID-19, Lending, Digital Finance, and Loans
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
15837. Towards Sustainable Ocean Governance: A Call for Blue Climate Action in International Development
- Author:
- Ina Lehmann, Michael Siebert, Nicola Hanke, Maximilian Högl, and Anna-Katharina Hornidge
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- The ocean is vital for life on earth and yet it is under serious threat from climate change and resource overexploitation. Environmental change in the ocean significantly undermines human livelihoods, especially in the developing and least developed countries where people are particularly vulnerable to climate change-related losses and damages. This Briefing Paper outlines challenges that people, development cooperation and policy face and suggests ways forward for sustainable ocean governance through sustainable resource use, comprehensive risk management and enhanced climate action. Life in the ocean is threatened in various ways by human activities. Climate change, as one severe consequence, leads to ocean warming and ocean acidification putting complex ecosystems and their sensitive species in danger. Such climatic impacts are exacerbated by pollution, especially plastic, and the overharvesting of many marine species. As a result of the confluence of these developments, many local coastal communities lose their livelihoods. At the same time, climate change increasingly threatens coasts through sea level rise, salinisation and growing frequencies of extreme weather events, such as floods and storms. This puts the 2.6 billion people living at or near the coasts at high risk; low-altitude small islands are expected to become uninhabitable within the next decades if current global warming trajectories continue. Furthermore, the ocean contributes to climate change mitigation because marine ecosystems absorb CO2. In response to these challenges, there is a need for sustained awareness raising on the importance of the ocean for development as well as for the need of enhanced international cooperation for joint action. Conscious politics, substantial action and financial resources are needed at multiple levels of governance, from empowering local stakeholders to developing locally sound solutions to political guidance through national and international policy-making processes. From a development policy angle, this Briefing Paper specifically suggests that current climate and biodiversity policy processes pay enhanced attention to the ocean under climate change, pollution and overexploitation stress.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Development, Governance, and Oceans and Seas
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
15838. Protecting Democracy: The Relevance of International Democracy Promotion for Term Limits
- Author:
- Julia Leininger and Daniel Nowack
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- The question of whether and how democracy can be promoted and protected through international support has recently gained relevance. On the one hand, the withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan has reignited a public debate on the limits of democracy promotion. On the other hand, the need for international democracy protection is growing due to an increase in autocratisation trends worldwide. DIE research shows that it is possible to effectively support and protect democracy. In this context, both the protection of central democratic institutions, such as term limits for rulers, and the promotion of democratic forces that pro-actively resist attempts at auto¬cratisation are central. Since 2010, autocratisation trends have been characterised by the fact that they often slowly erode achieved democratisation successes and consolidate autocracies. The circumvention and abolition of presidential term limits by incumbent presidents are part of the typical “autocratisation toolbox”. Term extensions limit democratic control and expand presidential powers. Democracy promotion and protection play a relevant role in preserving presidential term limits, and thus in protecting democracy. They contribute towards improving the “duration” and “survival chances” of presidential term limits. The more international democracy promotion is provided, the lower the risk that term limits will be circumvented. For example, a DIE analysis found that a moderately high democracy promotion mean of $2.50 per capita over four years on average halves the risk of presidential term limits being circumvented.
- Topic:
- NATO, Development, Diplomacy, Democracy, and Autocracy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
15839. Priorities for a Development-Friendly EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)
- Author:
- Clara Brandi
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- The European Commission unveiled the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in July 2021 as part of its “Fit for 55” climate-policy package. The European Commission had announced this trade-policy instrument under the Green Deal in 2019 as a means of implementing more ambitious climate-policy goals without energy-intensive sectors transferring their emissions abroad (carbon leakage). The CBAM proposal envisages imposing a levy on imports in certain energy-intensive European sectors that is proportional to the carbon content of the goods concerned. The proposal complements the EU’s existing Emissions Trading System by requiring importers of goods purchased from especially energy-intensive sectors (steel, cement, electricity, fertiliser and aluminium) abroad to purchase carbon certificates based on emissions data from abroad. CBAM is primarily designed to promote an ambitious climate policy for the EU. However, the EU’s current proposal creates the impression that it is mainly about improving domestic competitiveness at the expense of climate-policy effectiveness and development prospects. The draft legislation must now be fleshed out in detail by the EU member states and the European Parliament. In addition to addressing climate-policy effectiveness and compatibility with WTO legislation, account must also be taken of the impact on European trading partners, and, in particular, poor developing countries. Many developing countries are expected to face additional export costs as a result of the CBAM. The EU should carefully evaluate the associated disadvantages for developing countries and work towards achieving a development-friendly design of the mechanism. Corresponding improvements should be made to the CBAM in the EU’s legislative process going forward: • The EU must ensure that the border adjustments do not have a detrimental impact on poor countries. Least developed countries (LDCs) should be exempted from the CBAM. • The EU should provide targeted support to the developing countries affected by the mechanism, for instance, by building their capacity for implementing the CBAM and for reducing carbon emissions in the sectors concerned. • The EU should assist low- and middle-income partner countries with the decarbonisation of their manu¬facturing industries. • The EU should also recycle revenue from the CBAM by deploying it primarily for climate-policy purposes abroad. • The affected countries should be involved to a greater extent in future through consultations and diplomatic dialogue in the process for further develop¬ing the mechanism.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Development, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Carbon Emissions
- Political Geography:
- Europe
15840. Export Curbs on Essential Goods in the Wake of COVID-19 and the Least Developed Countries: Permanent Scarring from a Temporary Outburst
- Author:
- Simon Evenett
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- Anything that jeopardises progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals – such as a global pandemic and how governments react to it – is thus a major source of concern, in particular for least developed countries (LDCs). The first half of 2020 witnessed governments imposing dozens of export curbs on essential medical goods and foods that the LDCs, among other nations, depend upon. Although some of those curbs have subsequently been removed, there is a substantial risk of a permanent reduction in essential goods supplied to LDC markets, as current multilateral trade disciplines on export controls do not specifically require a return to the pre-pandemic status quo. Let us not forget that the G20 trade and investment ministers declared on 3 November 2020 that “any emergency trade measures designed to tackle COVID-19, including export restrictions on vital medical supplies and equipment and other essential goods and services, if deemed necessary, are targeted, proportionate, transparent, temporary, reflect our interest in protecting the most vulnerable, do not create unnecessary barriers to trade or disruption to global supply chains, and are consistent with WTO rules” (G20, 2020). Evidence on resort to export restrictions suggests, however, that G20 fealty to this pledge was uneven. The purpose of this Briefing Paper is to outline the key policy developments implicating the trade in essential goods during the first nine months of the COVID-19 pandemic before drawing out the implications for development policy and trade policy cooperation. These lessons need to be taken on board quickly if the mistakes made in 2020 are not to be repeated in 2021, when policymakers and the private sector around the world face the imperative of the equitable and efficient global distribution of COVID-19 vaccines. Recent export controls on such vaccines suggest important lessons from last year have not been taken on board universally. The key findings and policy recommendations are: • Permanent disruption to trade routes in medical goods and medicines cannot be ruled out as a result of temporary export curbs. • Revisit the World Trade Organization (WTO) rules that allow export curbs during emergencies. • LDCs should increase their buying power by joining together to buy medical goods and medicines from a diversified set of production locations. • Such buying power would be multiplied if LDCs joined forces with leading development agencies and the multilateral development banks. Stockpiling in advance of any future pandemic offers no cast-iron guarantee, as no-one can know for sure what medical goods will be in high demand.
- Topic:
- Development, International Cooperation, Sustainable Development Goals, Trade, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus