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15761. Will a Military Withdrawal from the Middle East Leave a Vacuum?

Author:
Mark Perry
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:
• The Biden administration must not allow disputes among combatant commanders about resource allocation to dictate decisions concerning U.S. force posture. The White House has acknowledged that the Middle East is no longer as central a concern to our national security as it once was and that the U.S. must reshape its military presence in the region. • Fears that Russia or China might take advantage of a reduction in the U.S. military presence in the Middle East are exaggerated. China and Russia have both benefited from America’s willingness to shoulder the security burden of the Middle East. • Washington should complement its reduced military presence in the Middle East with greater diplomatic involvement. The objectives should be retaining influence and advancing U.S. interests in a peaceful and stable environment.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, National Security, and Military
Political Geography:
Middle East

15762. Promoting Peace and Stability in the Maritime Order Amid China’s Rise

Author:
Rachel Esplin Odell
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:
A shift in the balance of maritime power in the Indo–Pacific region is contributing to rising tensions. This shift is accompanied by a mismatch in perceptions between the United States and China, which is in turn driving a dangerous great-power rivalry at sea. China’s growing presence, assertive behavior, and expansive claims in the maritime domain are also provoking a backlash among China’s neighbors and even some countries far from its shores. While these tensions have thus far remained under control, they could erupt into conflict if not carefully managed. To promote peace and stability in the South China Sea and beyond, the United States should pursue a bilateral détente with China in the maritime domain while also promoting the development of a more inclusive regional and global maritime order. The specific steps the United States should implement include: • Incentivize reduced militarization of the disputes in the South China Sea and East China Sea, and support compromise between China and other claimants to maritime jurisdiction and rights; • Significantly reduce the frequency of freedom of navigation operations, and instead promote bilateral and regional agreements on military activities at sea; and • Build more robust maritime crisis-management mechanisms with China.
Topic:
Maritime, Crisis Management, Peace, Strategic Stability, and Militarization
Political Geography:
China, United States of America, Indo-Pacific, and South China Sea

15763. Drawdown: Improving U.S. and Global Security Through Military Base Closures Abroad

Author:
David Vine, Patterson Deppen, and Leah Bolger
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:
Despite the withdrawal of U.S. military bases and troops from Afghanistan, the United States continues to maintain around 750 military bases abroad in 80 foreign countries and colonies (territories). These bases are costly in a number of ways: financially, politically, socially, and environmentally. U.S. bases in foreign lands often raise geopolitical tensions, support undemocratic regimes, and serve as a recruiting tool for militant groups opposed to the U.S. presence and the governments its presence bolsters. In other cases, foreign bases are being used and have made it easier for the United States to launch and execute disastrous wars, including those in Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, Somalia, and Libya. Across the political spectrum and even within the U.S. military there is growing recognition that many overseas bases should have been closed decades ago, but bureaucratic inertia and misguided political interests have kept them open. Amid an ongoing “Global Posture Review,” the Biden administration has a historic opportunity to close hundreds of unnecessary military bases abroad and improve national and international security in the process. The Pentagon, since Fiscal Year 2018, has failed to publish its previously annual list of U.S. bases abroad. As far as we know, this brief presents the fullest public accounting of U.S. bases and military outposts worldwide. The lists and map included in this report illustrate the many problems associated with these overseas bases, offering a tool that can help policymakers plan urgently needed base closures. Fast facts on overseas U.S. military outposts • There are approximately 750 U.S. military base sites abroad in 80 foreign countries and colonies. • The United States has nearly three times as many bases abroad (750) as U.S. embassies, consulates, and missions worldwide (276). • While there are approximately half as many installations as at the Cold War’s end, U.S. bases have spread to twice as many countries and colonies (from 40 to 80) in the same time, with large concentrations of facilities in the Middle East, East Asia, parts of Europe, and Africa. • The United States has at least three times as many overseas bases as all other countries combined. • U.S. bases abroad cost taxpayers an estimated $55 billion annually. • Construction of military infrastructure abroad has cost taxpayers at least $70 billion since 2000, and could total well over $100 billion. • Bases abroad have helped the United States launch wars and other combat operations in at least 25 countries since 2001. • U.S. installations are found in at least 38 non-democratic countries and colonies.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Military Affairs, and Military Bases
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

15764. China and the Persian Gulf in the Aftermath of a U.S. Withdrawal

Author:
Steven Simon
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:
• Given longstanding U.S. economic ties to the Arab Gulf states, the withdrawal of the U.S. military would not mean the United States is departing from the region. Even if it did signify that, however, China would be unlikely to fill the vacuum. A U.S. decision to maintain a military presence in the region should therefore not be based on fear of a strategic vacuum that China will fill to America’s disadvantage. • The United States should leverage China’s interest in stable cross–Gulf relations by working in tandem with Beijing to encourage dialogue and confidence-building measures. • The United States should monitor Chinese military deployments to the Indian Ocean and work with Gulf partners to set limits on China’s military use of air and naval bases. This would serve as a confidence-building measure and ensure that the Gulf does not become an arena for competition amid heightened Sino–American tensions.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Military Affairs, and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, Persian Gulf, and United States of America

15765. Climate Change: The Greatest National Security Threat to the United States

Author:
Anatol Lieven
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:
Climate change presents threats to the United States and the wellbeing of its citizens that dwarf those from Russia, China, or Iran. U.S. government policies and priorities should be reoriented accordingly. The necessary policy changes are these: • U.S. strategy toward China should be crafted and focused with a view to making sure tensions between the two countries do not impede international action against climate change. A zero-sum relationship between the great powers will ensure continued prioritization of manageable military threats over existential climate perils. This is precisely the policy framework that must be superseded. • Spending on efforts to limit climate change and mitigate its effects should take precedence over military spending, especially on new, vast, and nonessential programs such as the upgrading of America’s nuclear forces, which are already much larger than nuclear deterrence requires. • International aid should be increased and redirected toward building resilience against climate change in endangered countries, especially, but not only, in Central America. • The United States should seek opportunities to work with China’s Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, to improve climate resilience in Asian and African countries. • The United States should maintain cooperation and trade with China in the area of renewable energy technology.
Topic:
Climate Change, International Cooperation, National Security, and Renewable Energy
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

15766. The Long Shadow: Immediate and Downstream Consequences of the Collapse of the USSR

Author:
George W. Breslauer
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
For most Russians, the collapse of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) in 1991 was highly disorienting, if not traumatizing. They were sud- denly living in a new world. Many appreciated the newfound freedoms (of speech, association, religion, travel, and limited economic entrepreneurship) bequeathed by Mikhail Gorbachev’s reforms. Still, however much they appreci- ated Gorbachev’s ending of the Cold War, Russians had to get used to a long list of shattering losses. Their country was no longer a distinct, multi-ethnic civilization or an acknowledged “great power” that could take pride in its history. The economy was collapsing amidst deepening shortages of consumer goods, while organized crime climbed above ground to demand protection money and collude with state and party officials to strip state assets.1 Abroad, the country was a lonely “has-been.” The states of Eastern Europe were no longer military allies or vassals, and Russia could no longer claim to be the virtuous leader of an anti-imperialist “world communist movement.” The USSR’s prior claims of being a “global power” were nullified by the parlous state of the Russian military and the country’s economic dependence on the West in the wake of the collapse. The only international status indicator that remained was the claim of being a nuclear “superpower.”
Topic:
History, Economy, Vladimir Putin, and Post-Soviet Space
Political Geography:
Russia and Soviet Union

15767. 30 Years Since the Collapse of the Soviet Union: Democracy, Community, and Russia

Author:
Jerzy Buzek
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
I am a man of Solidarity—Solidarność. That is the name of the mass social movement that began in Poland in 1980 and brought freedom and democracy to not only my country but to all of Central and Eastern Europe. 1989 marked the end of the Eastern Bloc, and 1991 brought the collapse of the Soviet Union. Back then, there was hope it would indeed be “the end of history” and that there would be no going back to the past. The fall of the communist empire seemed to be the ultimate proof for us in Poland and Central Eastern Europe, but also for the entire world, that there was no more place for authoritarian regimes and that oppressive governments would perish sooner or later. Such was the experi- ence of generations that lived through the twentieth century. Three decades prior, the air we breathed was full of democracy; we needed that air once more.
Topic:
Communism, Democracy, Community, and Post-Soviet Space
Political Geography:
Russia and Soviet Union

15768. The Power of Law and Justice: The Contribution of Latvia to the Global Development and Defense of Democracy

Author:
Egils Levits
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
In May 1985, I wrote the following statement in a Canadian Latvian maga- zine: “In 5-, 20- or 50-years’ time the Soviet Union will be gone from Latvia.”1 Back then, I was just a young lawyer and political scientist—a researcher at the University of Kiel in Germany—having emigrated from the USSR-occupied Latvia 13 years earlier. I took an active part in the political life of Latvians in exile. Most believed that the bipolar world in which the nuclear superpowers of the West and East faced off would never change. So, why was I convinced that the Soviet Empire would collapse?
Topic:
Defense Policy, Development, Law, Democracy, Justice, and Post-Soviet Space
Political Geography:
Latvia and Baltic States

15769. The USSR and its Influence on Developments in the Right to Self- Determination

Author:
Robert McCorquodale
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
On a cold day in early March 1990, a phone call was made from the office of an economics minister in the Lithuanian Soviet Socialist Republic (Lithu- anian SSR) to a junior academic at the University of Cambridge. The question was asked: what laws should the government of Lithuanian SSR pass to declare itself independent from the Soviet Union? After a few days, the junior academic proposed a potential course of action to the Lithuanian caller. His proposal, combined with other, more expert opinions, was adopted by the government of the Lithuanian SSR as part of its declaration of (renewed) independence proclaimed on 11 March 1990.1
Topic:
Development, Independence, Post-Soviet Space, and Self-Determination
Political Geography:
Soviet Union

15770. Dynamics of Ukraine-Russia Relations

Author:
Roman Popadiuk
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
The end of the Soviet Union seemed to augur an era of peace and coopera- tion: The Cold War was over, Europe was whole and free, and Russia—moving toward democracy and a free-market economy—held the promise of becoming a meaningful member of the global community. While much of the interna- tional community’s focus was on Russia, a key factor for realizing the West’s aspirations was dependent on the development of Ukraine and its relationship with Russia.
Topic:
Cold War, Bilateral Relations, Regional Integration, and Post-Soviet Space
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, and Ukraine

15771. Hegemony Without Leadership: Russia’s Strategy in the Post-Soviet Space

Author:
Kataryna Wolczuk
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
During its relatively long existence, the Soviet Union was viewed with a mix of awe and fear: awe, owing to its immense capacity to play economic catch-up and fear, as to how that capacity would be used. It was only after the state’s collapse that its true nature was exposed. Despite its immense—though extremely costly in terms of human suf- fering—achievements, the USSR turned out to be a house of cards: the speed with which its institutions collapsed left behind 15 ostensibly modern, yet mis-developed, states. Not one of them possessed the functional capacity or the expertise to address the manifest legacies of Soviet mis-development, which included an autocratic political culture, maladapted institutions, pervasive cor- ruption, and swaths of socioeconomic deprivation.
Topic:
Hegemony, Leadership, Strategic Interests, and Post-Soviet Space
Political Geography:
Russia and Eurasia

15772. The Rise of Global Islamophobia and the Uyghur Genocide

Author:
Rushan Abbas
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
The world is observing one of the worst humanitarian crises of this century: the Uyghur genocide, a colonial project that uses modern surveillance and widespread concentration camp apparatuses. At the heart of this genocide is a fundamental “otherization” of the Uyghur people that relies on Islamophobic policy and rhetoric to dehumanize the indigenous population of East Turkistan, known to China as Xinjiang. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) employs Islamophobia to over-police Muslim populations and curtail their civil liber- ties. Islamophobic rhetoric has also driven surges in hate crimes against Muslim communities. The United Nations notes that this trend continues today as Is- lamophobic incidents continue to rise globally.1 The genocide in East Turkistan is the defining human rights atrocity of the twenty-first century thus far. The CCP has remolded a global trend of Islamophobia to fit their own needs—a new chapter in a horrific history. Though the motivations of the Chinese state in East Turkistan are varied, economic gain, cultural unification, and national consolidation all rank highly. Specific policies targeting the practice of Islam have allowed for a brutal crackdown on cultural norms in the region. Meanwhile, a global trend toward Islamophobia has given the genocide some political cover in the global sphere.
Topic:
Genocide, Human Rights, Islamophobia, and Uyghurs
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Global Focus

15773. Islamophobia, Internationalism, and the Expanse Between

Author:
Khaled A. Beydoun
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
While delivering a lecture for the BBC, Edward Said maintained, “Speaking truth to power is no Panglossian idealism: it is carefully weighing the alterna- tives, picking the right one, and then intelligently representing it where it can do the most good and cause the right change.”1 This was 1993. A world not yet remade in the image of the war on terror and the new order it ushered in eight years later. Not even Said, the secular hu- manist whose Orientalism crystallized how the West mispresented Islam, could anticipate the coming urgency of his work and the weight of the words he spoke in London.2 Speaking at the doorstep of the imperial power that divided much of the world and entrenched the epistemological binary that oriented Islam as a civilizational other, Said’s spoken truth confronted power beyond domestic boundaries. He was a grassroots internationalist who challenged the violence wrought by transnational hegemonies, new and old. He saw beyond boundar- ies, political and existential, to link struggles and galvanize oppressed groups against hegemonic forces.
Topic:
Ideology, Islamophobia, Internationalism, and Edward Said
Political Geography:
Global Focus

15774. What Did 9/11 Mean for U.S. Media Coverage of Muslims and Islam?

Author:
A. Maurits van der Veen and Erik Bleich
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
The twentieth anniversary of the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks is an opportune moment to review the impact of those attacks on the U.S. media’s coverage of Muslims and Islam. In 2003, Vice President Dick Cheney famously argued that “[i]n a sense, 9/11 changed everything for us.”1 Evidence suggests that—within the U.S. government—“everything” includes how officials perceive Muslims; they became the target of wide, undifferentiated suspicion.2 The picture for the U.S. media is less clear-cut: some have argued that, as within the govern- ment, the attacks “thrust a certain type of Orientalist stereotype firmly back... into our news media, and into the mouths of politicians.”3 Meanwhile, others have found an “increase in sympathetic representations of Arab and Muslim Americans in the U.S. media after 9/11.”4 In our own research, we find two key changes after 9/11: an enduring rise in the number of newspaper articles about Muslims and Islam and a dramatic increase in the share of articles linking Muslims to terrorism or extremism.
Topic:
Islam, Media, News Analysis, and 9/11
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

15775. Securitization of Islam: The Lethal Combination of Threat and Identity Politics

Author:
Jocelyne Cesari
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
The work of Samuel Huntington, first presented in a 1993 article in Foreign Affairs and subsequently elaborated upon in his 1996 book Clash of Civiliza- tions, has shaped the perception of the role of religion in general, and Islam in particular, in international conflicts.1 Huntington argued that Islam is uniquely incompatible with and antagonistic to the core values of the West, values which he defines as democracy and equality of individuals. Since Huntington first presented his work, much ink has been spilled by scholars attempting to invali- date his thesis. They show that civilizations are not homogenous or monolithic players in world politics with an inclination to “clash,” but rather that they consist of pluralistic, divergent, and convergent actors and of practices that are constantly evolving.2 Nonetheless, Huntington’s concept of the “Clash” has remained relevant in political discourse and in the media.
Topic:
Islam, Identity Politics, Securitization, and Threat Perception
Political Geography:
Global Focus

15776. Humanitarian Intervention and International Order: The Endless Wars Problem

Author:
Alex J. Bellamy
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Nowadays, few approve of humanitarian intervention, understood as the use of non-consensual force for the principal purpose of alleviating massive human suffering. Realists have always held that armed humanitarian crusades are an irrational, dangerous, and counterproductive extravagance likely to cause more problems than they solve, and at great expense.1 In a world full of autocracies and communities that define their values very differently from one another, re- alists argue, the forceful pursuit of “liberal hegemony” is likely to produce only “a perpetual state of war.”2 Critical thinkers have always suspected that a thinly veiled Western liberal imperialism lay behind what some described as the “new military humanism.”3 Its confidence in Western perfidiousness was briefly shaken by revelations of its misplaced faith in the Khmer Rouge and Slobodan Milošević but restored with gusto by the false pretexts for war with Iraq in 2003. English School pluralists value international order over individual rights;4 legal positivists lament the illegality of humanitarian intervention;5 post-colonial scholars, states, and other critical writers believe humanitarian intervention is the thin end of a neo-imperial wedge to erode hard-won self-determination and sovereignty;6 pacifists complain that humanitarian war is still, after all, war, and highlight the tragic irony of taking lives in order to save lives.7 More recently, Samuel Moyn situated humanitarian intervention within a broader politics by which “endless war” has been normalized as humane at the expense of war prevention.8 So intense is global antipathy that prominent advocates of the “responsibility to protect,” like Gareth Evans, carefully distinguish the principle they champion from humanitarian intervention. Samantha Power, meanwhile, was chastened by a painful experience in Libya into doubting whether humanitarian goals could be achieved by military force.9
Topic:
Human Rights, War, Humanitarian Intervention, and International Order
Political Geography:
Global Focus

15777. Armed Conflict and the Protection of Populations: The Debate over Humanitarian Intervention, Using Armed Force, and the Idea of Sovereignty

Author:
James Turner Johnson
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
This paper examines the development of the idea of humanitarian in- tervention and its implications for state sovereignty. It begins with a moral discussion of intervention from the rediscovery of the just war theory in the 1960s and 1970s, extends through public debates about intervention to protect fundamental human rights during armed conflicts over succeed- ing decades, and includes the production of the global commitment of the “Responsibility to Protect” and its treatment in the Outcome document of the 2005 UN World Summit. The article notes that two competing ideas of sovereignty have been recurrent themes in humanitarian intervention debates. One idea, expressed in Article 2 of the UN Charter, defines sovereignty in terms of the inviolability of state territory. The other, surfacing in human rights law and in moral debates in the public sphere, defines sovereignty in terms of the responsibility of states and the world order to protect funda- mental human rights domestically and internationally. This paper identifies the deep historical roots of both conceptions and their mutual, but different, connections to the idea of natural law, as well as their different implications regarding the roles of states, regional organizations, and the UN. It concludes by noting that while the 2005 Summit reaffirmed the former conception of sovereignty, it also acknowledged the latter as a domestic obligation of states, though one in which the international community also has an interest.
Topic:
Sovereignty, Humanitarian Intervention, Armed Conflict, and Protection
Political Geography:
Global Focus

15778. The Uyghur Genocide and International Policy Response

Author:
Omer Kanat
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
The Chinese government’s treatment of the Uyghurs has gone from a relatively obscure issue in the international press to a central one. It has become the subject of discussion and policymaking in the halls of governments around the world and has gained widespread awareness among the general public. This is because Uyghurs are subject to some of the worst human rights abuses in the world; in many respects, their treatment meets the accepted definition of geno- cide. The fact that these abuses are being perpetrated in the People’s Republic of China (PRC), a nation widely expected to have a major role in shaping the twenty-first century, has contributed to the urgency of the issue. The Uyghur community has welcomed the long overdue response from some governments. An increasing number of parliaments have condemned the Chinese government’s actions as genocide, and some are developing legislation aimed at addressing issues such as forced labor in the supply chain and transnational repression di- rected at Uyghurs living abroad. Although the Chinese government denounces these as attempts to meddle in their internal affairs, the repression of Uyghurs has a global dimension that requires a global response.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Genocide, Human Rights, and Uyghurs
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Global Focus

15779. Moral Imperatives and Legal Realities: The Perennial Conundrum of Humanitarian Intervention

Author:
Chris O'Meara
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Article 1 of the UN Charter embodies a well-known tension that exists in international law. On the one hand, it sets out perhaps the most fundamental purpose of the UN: the maintenance of international peace and security. This principle underpins the operation of the post-World War II rules-based inter- national order. It is reflected in Article 2(4) of the UN Charter, which prohibits the “threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political indepen- dence of any state.”1 Such prohibition, while routinely flouted by states, stands as an intransgressible rule of international law.2 On the other hand, Article 1 establishes what appears to be an equally foundational principle: promoting and encouraging respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms. Indeed, the burgeoning body of international human rights law that has arisen since the signing of the Charter has increasingly placed human rights and human security at the center of international concern.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Law, Humanitarian Intervention, and International Humanitarian Law (IHL)
Political Geography:
Global Focus

15780. Coups, Conflicts, and COVID-19 in Myanmar: Humanitarian Intervention and Responsibility to Protect in Intractable Crises

Author:
Adam Simpson
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Myanmar is a complex country with an unlucky history that includes op- pressive British colonization, Japanese invasion during World War II followed by independence, the world’s longest-running civil wars, and disastrous military coups. The coup of 1962 resulted in half a century of authoritarian military rule.1 The most recent coup on 1 February 2021 reversed a decade of political and economic reforms, resulted in crimes against humanity, and removed any glimmer of hope for Myanmar’s future.2 The terrifying trauma of a third wave of COVID-19 in mid-2021, dominated by the Delta variant, left much of the country sick and gasping for breath.3
Topic:
Humanitarian Intervention, Conflict, Crisis Management, Coup, and Responsibility to Protect (R2P)
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Myanmar