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15761. Mind the Trap: What Basing Rights in Djibouti and Sri Lanka Reveal About the Limitations of Debt as a Tool of Chinese Military Expansion

Author:
Scott Wingo
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
On November 24, 2019, Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa told reporters during his first interview as president that he hoped to renegotiate the terms of the deal that gave a Chinese firm a 99-year lease over the Hambantota Port (Strategic News International, November 24, 2019). The port had been handed over as Sri Lanka struggled to make loan payments on the loss-making Chinese-built facility—thereby leading to debates as to whether the People’s Republic of China (PRC) had set a “debt trap” by intentionally lending Sri Lanka more than it could afford to repay, in hopes of eventually foreclosing on the port (China Brief, January 5, 2019). The subtext was that with a leasehold in hand, the PRC could use the port as a naval installation geared toward patrolling Indian Ocean shipping lanes. As can be observed by the Sri Lankan government’s desire to renegotiate, this has not happened. To the contrary, Sri Lankan security policy has trended against China since the debt-equity swap occurred. A comparison with Djibouti, where the PRC has established its only overseas military base to date, illuminates how this came to pass. In both Djibouti and Sri Lanka, Beijing has used infrastructure loans as a means to entice political leaders to allow naval access. However, three factors led to very different outcomes: 1) the recipient countries’ inherent willingness to host a base; 2) the degree of political competition faced by recipient leaders; and 3) the degree to which recipient leaders can diversify toward different sources of funding to reduce overreliance on China.
Topic:
Debt, Imperialism, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Hegemony
Political Geography:
China and Asia

15762. The China-Myanmar Economic Corridor: Delays Ahead

Author:
Sudha Ramachandran
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Although no new deals were struck during People’s Republic of China (PRC) President Xi Jinping’s trip to Myanmar on January 17 and 18, the visit was significant for several reasons. The visit was the first by a PRC president to Myanmar in 19 years, and the first by Xi to this country in his role as president. The visit was widely touted as marking the 70th anniversary of the establishment of relations between the PRC and Myanmar. However, Xi’s first trip abroad this year was aimed at expediting implementation of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), a key component of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) (CGTN, January 17). During the visit, the two governments signed 33 agreements, memorandums of understanding, protocols and letters of exchange relating to railways, industrial and power projects, and trade. Several of these agreements firm up Myanmar’s commitment to the CMEC’s three central components: the Kyaukphyu Special Economic Zone (SEZ), which includes a deep-sea port, an industrial park and other projects; the China-Myanmar Border Economic Cooperation Zone; and an urban development plan for Yangon (The Irrawaddy, January 18). However, just weeks after Xi’s visit saw the two sides take steps to expedite CMEC projects, Beijing’s plans have run into new problems. CMEC projects are running late, and in an op-ed piece published on the eve of his Myanmar visit, Xi stressed the need for CMEC projects to be moved from “the conceptual stage to concrete planning and implementation” (New Light of Myanmar, January 16). The coronavirus pandemic has emerged as the latest challenge in the long list of obstacles that have slowed CMEC projects over the years. According to Khriezo Yhome, a New Delhi-based analyst of developments in Myanmar, it “may be too early to assess the impact of the coronavirus crisis on CMEC projects,” given that the pandemic is still only at an “initial phase” in Myanmar; however, there is “no doubt” that it “will slow down the implementation of CMEC projects in the short-term.” [1]
Topic:
Diplomacy, Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Burma, and Myanmar

15763. Responding to the Epidemic in Wuhan: Insights into Chinese Military Logistics

Author:
Joel Wuthnow
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has portrayed its response to the novel coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan in heroic terms: battling against an insidious enemy, PLA personnel courageously and tirelessly helped to mitigate the disaster in the epidemic-ravaged city. The PLA has even made the amazing (and highly improbable) claim that it accomplished this while suffering zero infections within its own ranks (China Military Online, March 3). Despite the hype, the crisis has provided an opportunity for the PLA’s newly reformed logistics system to test its ability to mobilize resources in exigent circumstances. The Joint Logistic Support Force (联勤保障部队, Lianqin Baozhang Budui) or JLSF, which was created in September 2016 as part of Xi Jinping’s larger overhaul of the military, has been at the forefront of the PLA’s response. [1] The JLSF’s role in Wuhan illuminated several key strengths of the PLA logistics system—including centralized control, effective use of information technology, and civil-military coordination—while also suggesting potential deficiencies. At a minimum, the crisis likely resulted in “lessons learned” that could improve the JLSF’s role in supporting commanders during wartime.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Leadership, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:
China and Asia

15764. Epidemic-Related Unrest and the CCP’s Reinforced Political Loyalty Indoctrination for China’s Police

Author:
John Dotson
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The central Chinese city of Wuhan, in Hubei Province, was the original epicenter from which the COVID-19 viral outbreak first emerged in November-December 2019. Hubei Province was placed under a strict lockdown in mid-January that lasted for over two months (China Brief, January 29). On March 25, authorities in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) announced the lifting of most travel restrictions for residents of Hubei Province, with the exception of Wuhan City itself (Xinhua, March 25). (Restrictions for residents of Wuhan were later eased on April 8). However, the lifting of these restrictions has not proceeded entirely smoothly. On March 27, a major social disturbance occurred on the bridge over the Yangzi River that connects the town of Xiaochi in far eastern Hubei with the town of Jiujiang in northern Jiangxi Province. On that Friday, Hubei residents attempted to cross the bridge, but were blocked by police from the Jiangxi side. A tense stand-off escalated into a riot that reportedly involved not only citizens and police, but also clashes between police from the two bordering provinces (see accompanying images) (Radio Free Asia, March 27). Regional tensions were revealed in video of the incident, in which angry citizens could clearly be heard to chant “Let’s go, Hubei” (湖北加油, Hubei jiayou) when marching to confront barricades set up by Jiangxi police (HK Free Press, March 27). The police barricades were presumably ordered by Jiangxi officials—acting in apparent contravention of official national policy—who were fearful that an influx of people from Hubei could once more spread COVID-19 infections. This likely revealed skepticism on the part of regional officials towards the central government’s message that the epidemic has been contained in Hubei. It also revealed issues of fear and discrimination against Hubei persons on the part of Chinese from other provinces, a problem acknowledged in official PRC press outlets (China Daily, March 30). The March 27 incident provided a dramatic example of the sort of social unrest that Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officials have clearly feared could materialize in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has resulted in tens of thousands of deaths inside China and across the globe. [1] Hubei citizens have been subject to harsh conditions under government quarantines, resulting in a steady build-up of popular anger (China Brief, April 1). This incident may not be the last of its type to emerge as a result of the pandemic, and the CCP has taken active steps over the past two months to reinforce political indoctrination for local police agencies—thereby attempting to ensure that police officers will remain loyal to the ruling party in the event of any major incidents that might threaten “social order and stability” (社会治安稳定, shehui zhi’an wending) in the country.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Domestic Politics, Police, Police State, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:
China and Asia

15765. Coronavirus Lockdown Exacerbating Domestic Violence in Jordan

Author:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:
The coronavirus pandemic has entered every home in one way or another. Strict lockdown measures to prevent the spread of the disease, are giving rise to a surge in domestic violence to which the UN is referring to as ‘the shadow pandemic’. To some, it is not safe to be home, therefore the UN Secretary General has called for governments to incorporate domestic abuse policies as a key part of their national response strategies against COVID-19. Realizing those serious human rights violations and their direct association to financial hardship; which are on the rise due to the loss of jobs/ curfew as a result of the coronavirus crisis, the Centre for Strategic Studies at the University of Jordan has immediately launched its 20th poll, as part of its “Jordanians’ Barometer – The Pulse of the Jordanian Street” series of polls, to reflect on the effect of the coronavirus crisis on the degree of domestic violence exacerbations among Jordanian households during the curfew. The poll was conducted between the 20th -26th of April, 2020, on a representative sample of the Jordanian community; taking into consideration the different age groups, educational levels and governorates. The collected data was processed and weighed by CSS research experts; to ensure the statistical representation of all governorates, within a margin of ±3% error. The outputs of the poll disclosed state-of-the-art statistics on domestic violence surge during COVID-19 lockdown in Jordan, originating a public debate among officials and citizens alike and starting a huge media campaign on television channels, radio stations and social media platforms. Furthermore, a hotline for reporting cases of domestic violence was launched by the Jordanian National Commission for Women (JNCW) and Al-Mamlaka TV; being its foremost impact.
Topic:
Public Health, Coronavirus, Pandemic, COVID-19, Domestic Violence, Polls, and Lockdown Policies
Political Geography:
Middle East and Jordan

15766. Gender Equality in Jordan: Impact Analysis of COVID-19

Author:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:
As the novel coronavirus pandemic continues to spread across the globe, the gender gap appears to be expanding; exacerbating inequalities for women and girls and putting them at great economic, health and domestic violence risks. A nation-wide systematic cross-sectional quantitative study is conducted on the whereabouts of women and girls amidst the coronavirus pandemic and strict curfew measures in Jordan, via telephone interviews with 1,300 research participants (49%) males, 51%) females); in terms of health/ psychological, economic, psychosocial, legal/ political and educational aspects. The results show that the coronavirus pandemic impacted females more than their male counterparts, exacerbating gender-inequalities in terms of: access to healthcare services for pregnant women (51%) of pregnant women were impacted negatively); psychological wellbeing (sadness, anxiety, isolation, lack of interest in activities); household responsibilities (15%) more females); marital and domestic violence (verbal, psychological, physical and neglect); working remotely (higher rate of working from home/ higher percent of tasks given); and awareness of reporting domestic violence means (less females know how to contact authorities/ specialized institutions).
Topic:
Economics, Education, Gender Issues, Health, Women, Inequality, Psychology, Voting, COVID-19, Abuse, and Domestic Violence
Political Geography:
Middle East and Jordan

15767. Changes in Consumer Behavior Of Gen Y’ers in Covid-19 Pandemic

Author:
Cemal Aksoy and Ahu Ergen
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:
Altinbas University
Abstract:
The economic challenges in different countries from past to present have global effects affecting the whole consumers. Today, especially young consumers are at the centre of the economy and understanding their consumer behaviour deeply in especially economically challenging days such as this pandemic of COVID-19 enables companies to make the right decisions. In this study, the effects of the economic challenges and the changes in the consumer behaviour of Generation Y’ers in the COVID-19 pandemic are examined both theoretically and practically. This study was conducted with 12 consumers from Generation Y living in Istanbul. The analysis shows that they prefer cheap and discounted products. They are more careful about spending money and they avoid extravagance. The results show that consumers are negatively affected by the economic consequences of COVID-19.
Topic:
Economics, Interview, COVID-19, Generation Y, and Consumer Behavior
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

15768. Turkey’s Membership Process In a Multi-Speed European Union

Author:
Ekrem Yaşar Akçay and İdris Turan
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:
Altinbas University
Abstract:
The European Union, established after World War II, has strengthened the revival of Europe, which has suffered greatly due to the war in many areas, including economic, political and socio-cultural. At the same time, the European Union overtook the conflicts between states. The European Union, which has occasionally passed through major breaks since its foundation, has recently begun to evolve into a new structure called multispeed Europe. On the 60th anniversary of the signing of the Treaty of Rome, the member states, for the first time, have mentioned this new structure in an official publication. This structure has led to disagreements 13 among EU member states. On the other hand, it is also a matter of curiosity how the candidate countries will follow once this structure is created. This study assesses the potential effects of a a multi-speed European Union on Turkey-EU relations. In addition, it tries to evaluate whether the EU’s new structure will be an advantage for Turkey or not. In other words, this study aims to explore the possibility of Turkey’s EU full membership in the EU’s new model.
Topic:
International Relations, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

15769. Foreign Market Entry Mode Choice In Service Firms: a Business Model Perspective

Author:
Alptegin Albayraktaroğlu
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:
Altinbas University
Abstract:
The topic of foreign market entry in service sector could benefit from a more granular approach, since the business model (BM) employed varies greatly across different types of services. It is argued that this in turn would affect the internationalization strategy to be employed in each service case. In this paper, services are classified along three dimensions (inseparability, capital intensity, degree of customization), and propositions are developed regarding the right foreign market entry mode for each of the eight service variations. The propositions are grounded in business model and general strategic management theories, since it is argued that service firms design their activity systems in host countries via tradeoffs between adjustment costs and transaction costs involved. As the service classification defines the nature of these costs for the focal firm, previous findings regarding the choice of foreign market entry mode reflects BM designs to optimize such costs. The scientific value of this paper is the introduction of the business model concept as a new perspective for research on decision making in service firm internationalization.
Topic:
Business, Internationalization, Foreign Market Entry, and Service Marketing
Political Geography:
Global Focus

15770. Informal employment and wages in Poland

Author:
Jacek Liwiński
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Purpose: This paper tries to identify the wage gap between informal and formal workers and tests for the two-tier structure of the informal labour market in Poland. Design/methodology/approach: I employ the propensity score matching (PSM) technique and use data from the Polish Labour Force Survey (LFS) for the period 2009–2017 to estimate the wage gap between informal and formal workers, both at the means and along the wage distribution. I use two definitions of informal employment: a) employment without a written agreement and b) employment while officially registered as unemployed at a labour office. In order to reduce the bias resulting from the non-random selection of individuals into informal employment, I use a rich set of control variables representing several individual characteristics. Findings: After controlling for observed heterogeneity, I find that on average informal workers earn less than formal workers, both in terms of monthly earnings and hourly wage. This result is not sensitive to the definition of informal employment used and is stable over the analysed time period (2009–2017). However, the wage penalty to informal employment is substantially higher for individuals at the bottom of the wage distribution, which supports the hypothesis of the two-tier structure of the informal labour market in Poland. Originality/value: The main contribution of this study is that it identifies the two-tier structure of the informal labour market in Poland: informal workers in the first quartile of the wage distribution and those above the first quartile appear to be in two partially different segments of the labour market.
Topic:
Demographics, Labor Issues, Employment, Social Policy, and Informal Economy
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

15771. Renewed Transatlantic Responses towards China: Identifying Common Ground

Author:
Katrin Bastian and Graeme P. Herd
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
Abstract:
The western global order originated in the 19th and 20th centuries. It is characterized by formal international institutions and a regime of treaties, rules, norms, networks, expectations, and moral obligations. As Sigmar Gabriel and John B. Emerson note, “Our liberty is protected by democracy, the rule of law, the separation of powers, and freedom of expression and assembly. These shared principles have shaped the outlook on both sides of the Atlantic for decades.”1 These shared democratic, free, and open society principles are challenged by undemocratic non-western, economically and/or militarily successful powers, not least the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Russian Federation. The PRC has a population of 1.4 billion (comprising 18 percent of the global share), a 5,000-year-old history and culture, and boasts the world’s second largest economy. The PRC is ideologically assertive and displays a visible ambition to play a role on the international stage. Sociological theory suggests that the numeric dimension of a group determines social reality. Indeed, as Lenin noted: “quantity has a quality all of its own.” In this light, the PRC is simply “too big and too many” not to shape international politics. Ironically, the political West is involuntarily assisting in this reconfiguration of international power by voluntarily withdrawing from multilateral institutions and geopolitically-critical regions (the U.S., at least in the Trump administration) or by being overwhelmed with administrative tasks (the European Union, as a result of the growing number of member states, deeper integration, and COVID-19).
Topic:
Civil Society, Globalization, Multilateralism, Institutions, and Social Order
Political Geography:
Global Focus

15772. The COVID-19 Pandemic: Counterterrorism Practitioners’ Assessments

Author:
James Wither and Richard Masek
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
Abstract:
The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in February 2020 arguably created the greatest global security challenge since 1945. Faced with this unanticipated threat, scholars and practitioners from the security and counterterrorism fields have struggled to understand and assess the impact of the pandemic on global and domestic terrorism.1 Many terrorist groups and individual extremists reacted with enthusiasm to the pandemic. Salafi-jihadist and far-right extremists, in particular, claimed that the pandemic vindicated their very different ideological standpoints and called for attacks while affected states were at their most vulnerable. However, outside of areas already impacted by armed conflict like the Sahel, there has not been a rise in terrorist attacks during the pandemic. Terrorists of all kinds have stepped up their propaganda, hoping to influence anxious people largely confined to their homes by lockdowns and compelled to spend more time on the Internet and social media. However, the extent to which terrorists have successfully attracted new converts to their cause or active recruits during the crisis still remains uncertain. The pandemic has also raised the specter of bio-terrorism, as there were fears that terrorists might try to use COVID–19 as a biological weapon. Early in the crisis, some extremists used the internet to encourage infected individuals to spread the virus in public places, but there is little evidence of such activities being carried out. As regards more sophisticated attacks, some terrorist groups in the past have aspired to employ bio-terrorism, but the necessary weapons have always proved too difficult for terrorists to successfully develop or deliver. Despite the calls for attacks on social media, the pandemic’s lockdowns, increased surveillance, the ban on gatherings, and travel restrictions, coupled with a heavy police and military presence on the ground in some cities have created a challenging environment for terrorist operations. But as governments continue to focus their efforts on combating the virus, normal security protocols may be reduced or abandoned. In most countries, the security services have been drawn directly into efforts to counter the pandemic and to an extent have been affected by social distancing and other restrictions employed to combat the virus. There are also concerns that international cooperation to combat terrorism will be reduced as countries focus more narrowly on domestic priorities. Many governments have resorted to emergency legislation to allow the police to enforce lockdowns and social isolation. This is normal behavior for autocratic governments, but unprecedented in liberal democracies, at least during peacetime. Repressive legislation allows intrusive surveillance, detention, and prevents freedom of assembly and movement. Although traditionally there has been no direct link between poverty and terrorism, socio-economic hardships caused by the pandemic are also likely to be severe, especially in the developing world. Government repression is a common trigger for acts of terrorism as it can turn already aggrieved citizens into violent extremists. To date, the COVID–19 pandemic has highlighted governments’ lack of preparedness, social inequalities and macro-economic failings. It would be premature, however, to conclude that the coronavirus crisis will inspire new forms of anti-state terrorism or turn largely non-violent anti-globalization and environmentalist groups into violent extremists. In the longer term, it remains to be seen whether counterterrorism will retain the priority it has been given since 9/11 in terms of financial, technical, and manpower resources. Public health as a national security priority may command a much greater share of resources than ever before. Given the impact of the COVID–19 pandemic on public finances, budget cuts to the security services may be more severe than after the financial crisis in 2008-2009, which could create new vulnerabilities for terrorist groups to exploit. The aim of this report is to provide further insights into the issues outlined above by providing data on the preliminary impact of COVID–19 supplied by over 400 military and civilian counterterrorism professionals surveyed by the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies’ (GCMC) Program in Terrorism and Security Studies (PTSS) faculty team.
Topic:
Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

15773. Compounded Crisis in Belarus: Drivers, Dynamics, and Possible Outcomes?

Author:
Pal Dunay and Graeme P. Herd
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
Abstract:
Until 2014, Belarus had embraced its Soviet legacy identity. After the Russian annexation of Crimea and its subsequent support for the separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk, elite discourse in Minsk favored a geopolitical shift away from Moscow and emphasized Belarus’ independent statehood and strategic autonomy. Elites tolerated and even co-opted a more nationalist agenda (including re-interpretations of history and the increased visiblity of nationalist symbols) and a clearer delineation emerged between pro-Russian and pro-Ukrainian public groups in Belarus, inspired also in part by the Ukrainian reform process, though this was not clearly reflected in institutional politics. Belarusian national identity lacks the deeper anti-Russian sentiment inhrerent in that of Ukraine. Russia responded by enhancing its profile in Belarus through increased Russkiy Mir and Rossotrunichestvo activities to positively shape public opinion, even as it distanced itself from Lukashenka. In the last few years, Russia more publicly challenged Lukashenka to make good on his pledges by signing and implementing the thirty-one roadmaps for Union State integration. The Wagner debacle of July 29 further strained relations, not least as President Alyksandr Lukashenka instrumentalized the arrests to suggest that Russia was the greatest threat to Belarusian sovereignty and only he could defend its statehood. The current political crisis can also be attributed to a number of accumulating internal proximate factors, which eroded support for an incumbent president seeking a sixth five-year term after twenty-six years in power: the mismanagement of COVID-19 responses; a lost economic decade in which recovery shackled the IT sector and entrepreneurship and initiated the 2017 “parasite tax” protests; the rise of “autocrat fatigue”; a generational change with those under forty years old not identifying with Lukashenka’s Soviet era models and mentality; and a generalized resistance to the idea that the election could be rigged as usual. The existing social contract was at breaking point.
Topic:
Nationalism, Conflict, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe and Belarus

15774. “Germany’s EU Presidency 2020: The Security Dimension and EU-NATO Cooperation”

Author:
Ralf Roloff
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
Abstract:
On July 1, 2020, Germany assumed the Presidency of the Council of the European Union for the second half of 2020. How Germany manages the EU Council presidency will be of utmost importance for the future of the European Union as well as for the transatlantic relationship. The German EU presidency faces two major challenges: first, containing the coronavirus crisis and working towards a European economic recovery and second, initiating a lasting dynamic towards European solidarity, and autonomy. How are the two challenges intertwined with security questions? Germany intends to promote closer EU-NATO security cooperation. The coronavirus pandemic has tested this envisaged cooperation, but also offered new opportunities. Hence, what is the pandemic’s impact on Germany’s ambitions for EU-NATO cooperation? On July 2, 2020, the Marshall Center brought together a group of experts and alumni from Belgium, Croatia, Germany, Hungary, Lithuania, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, and the United States in a virtual workshop designed to share their expectations for Germany’s EU presidency as well as generate ideas about how to lay the groundwork for strengthening Euro-Atlantic security and EU-NATO cooperation going forward. The following takeaways are informed by the discussion.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, European Union, and Leadership
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

15775. COVID-19 and Irregular Migration in the Mediterranean

Author:
Benjamin P. Nickels and Margo Shields
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
Abstract:
Every year, tens of thousands of men, women, and children attempt to move—from East to West and from South to North—across the Mediterranean. This year, irregular migration across the Mediterranean is taking place during an unprecedented global coronavirus pandemic. How is COVID-19 affecting this year’s Mediterranean irregular migration and what should be done to manage this migration during the pandemic? On June 17, 2020, the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies brought together a diverse set of twelve practitioners and experts from Europe, Africa, the United States, and the Middle East to address this question. The following takeaways are informed by the discussion.
Topic:
Migration, Refugees, Humanitarian Crisis, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Mediterranean

15776. Tashkent COVID-19 Video Conference Calls for International Cooperation

Author:
Gregory Gleason, Pál Dunay, and Robert Baumann
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
Abstract:
The COVID-19 infection spread rapidly through the Central Asian states in early 2020. Political leaders in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan were quick to adopt containment and mitigation policies to counter the spread of the disease, announcing national emergencies, establishing quarantines, ordering commercial and public institutions to temporary close, and restricting road, rail, air, and maritime transport routes. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan, in particular, swiftly took steps to implement restrictions, impose curfews, and initiate sheltering-in-place measures. The neighboring Central Asian states of Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, meanwhile, instituted a number of counter-infection measures but did not acknowledge instances of COVID-19 infection.1 The Tashkent State University of Oriental Studies, a leading foreign area studies center in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, conducted an international video-teleconference on the topic of the coronavirus pandemic on April 22, 2020. George C. Marshall Center professors Dr. Pál Dunay and Dr. Gregory Gleason were invited as presenters at the international video conference. Also invited as a presenter was Dr. Robert Baumann, the director of graduate degree programs for the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College at Ft. Leavenworth. The Uzbek Academy of the Armed Forces was included in the video conference. Marshall Center alumni also participated and actively contributed to the discussions. The key questions facing the crisis caused by the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic were introduced by Gulchekhra Rikhsieva, Uzbekistan Senator and Rector of Tashkent State University of Oriental Studies. Professor Rikhsieva opened the video conference, describing the seriousness of the dangers presented by the spread of COVID-19 in Uzbekistan and other countries. She called upon the fifty-three video attendees of the conference to use the opportunity to meet the challenges of the crisis objectively and realistically. She called upon the attendees to identify international cooperation measures that could augment Uzbekistan’s state policies in reducing the risks inherent in this and other potential subsequent pandemics. The two-and-a-half-hour conference included eighteen brief video presentations, surveying and comparing the current state of affairs in Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and other countries. Professor Rikhsieva concluded the discussion with remarks regarding the challenges and opportunities inherent in addressing public policy issues of international cooperation in the context of the video format.
Topic:
Governance, Leadership, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Asia

15777. With the World in Turmoil, Transnational Organized Crime Sees Opportunity in Counterfeit Pharmaceuticals and Medical Supplies during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:
Stephen Noguera and Kalliroi Ziavrou
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
Abstract:
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic poses a host of global health, economic, and security challenges, to include the continued challenge of combating transnational organized crime. While some believe this pandemic will disrupt and have a negative impact on the global operations of transnational organized criminal groups, the morbid reality is that these groups view the crisis as a lucrative opportunity. For the foreseeable future, we can expect organized criminal groups to quickly adapt in order to exploit the pandemic via various illicit schemes. In Italy, mafia groups are already demonstrating that they are intent on benefiting from the crime-related opportunities that the COVID-19 pandemic will present.1 There are numerous opportunities and illicit ventures transnational organized crime will seek to exploit as this pandemic runs its course. Perhaps most concerning are the activities associated with the manufacture and trafficking of counterfeit pharmaceuticals and medical supplies, including personal protection equipment (PPE).2 Since the outbreak of the crisis, the sale of these products has increased.3 Interpol is warning that one of the five global threats from the coronavirus is the fraudulent and counterfeit trade in personal protective equipment and anti-viral pharmaceuticals.4 Moreover, during this crisis counterfeiters will most probably use shortages in the supply of some products to provide counterfeit alternatives.5 The European Medicines Agency (EMA) is urging the general public not to buy medicines from unauthorized websites and other vendors aiming to exploit fears and concerns during the ongoing pandemic of COVID-19. Such products are likely to be falsified medicines.6 According to the World Health Organization (WHO), “falsified” medicines are medical products that deliberately/fraudulently misrepresent their identity, composition, or source.7 For counterfeit products, the WHO is also using the terminology “substandard” (also called “out of specification”), for authorized medical products that fail to meet either their quality standards or specifications, or both, and “unregistered/unlicensed” for medical products that have not undergone evaluation and/or approval by the National or Regional Regulatory Authority (NRRA) for the market in which they are marketed/distributed or used, subject to permitted conditions under national or regional regulation and legislation.8
Topic:
International Cooperation, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Medicine
Political Geography:
Europe

15778. Learning-to-Export Effect as a Response to Export Opportunities: Micro-Evidence from Korean Manufacturing

Author:
Chin Hee Hahn and Yong-Seok Choi
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This paper aims to investigate whether empirical evidence supports the learning-to-export hypothesis, which has received little attention in the previous literature. By taking full advantage of plant–product level data from the Republic of Korea during 1990–1998, we find some evidence for the learning-to-export effect, especially for innovated product varieties with delayed exporters: their productivity, together with research and development and investment activity, was superior to their matched sample. On the other hand, this learning-to-export effect was not significantly pronounced for the industries protected by import tariffs. Thus, our empirical findings suggest that it would be desirable to implement some policy tools to promote the learning-to-export effect, while tariff protection cannot be justifiable for that purpose.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Tariffs, Manufacturing, and Productivity
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

15779. Improving Digital Connectivity For E-commerce: A Policy Framework and Empirical Note for ASEAN

Author:
Lurong Chen
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Global cross-border e-commerce has become increasingly important in the international economy. The next Asian miracle of growth could be born out of the region's digital transformation. Digital connectivity is the cornerstone that will make change feasible and smoothen the transformation. Digital connectivity consists of not only physical connectivity that facilitates the movement of raw materials, intermediate goods, and goods, but also cyber connectivity to support free flows of data, information, and services. This paper proposes a policy framework of promoting digital connectivity to support the development of e-commerce. Policy efforts to improve data connectivity, logistics, and online payment can help the Association of Southeast Asian Nations narrow the development gaps in information and communications technology infrastructure, both cross-border and within countries. Improving institutional connectivity and service development play a significant role. Digital connectivity is essential for the digital-friendly ecosystem that will facilitate digital transformation, which will affect not only e-commerce but also countries’ overall economic performance.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology, Digital Economy, and Connectivity
Political Geography:
ASEAN

15780. Pandemic (COVID-19) Policy Regional Cooperation and the Emerging Global Production Network

Author:
Fukunari Kimura
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
In this paper, we explore the possible policy responses to the pandemic shock as well as the related economic (financial crisis) shocks on trade and global value chains (GVCs) in East Asia. We find that regional policy coordination is critical to mitigate and isolate the pandemic shock. It is important to identify the pandemic events early to flatten the pandemic curve at the national and regional level. This supports a recent study by the World Bank (2020) which highlights the importance of early mitigation policies during the pandemic shock. The cost of the pandemic and economic shocks increases significantly when several countries in the region experience the systemic pandemic shock concurrently. In this case, flattening the regional pandemic curve becomes important. The results also indicate the need for greater coordination in East Asia to mitigate the pending economic shock in terms of unemployment, corporate bankruptcy, and financial market fragility. The paper also highlights that the stability of the GVC network is critical during the pandemic in terms of hedging the risk of disruptions to the procurement of critical medical and health products as well as the stability of the services linkages to manufacturing, such as the logistics sector. Regional policy coordination and the stability of GVCs are valuable in the post-pandemic recovery of the region.
Topic:
World Bank, Pandemic, Global Value Chains, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
East Asia and Asia