Publication Year: within 25 Years and within 10 Years / Topic: Democratization

101. Davutoglu’s Resignation: Crisis Under Control

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: After two meetings between Turkey’s President Erdogan and Prime Minister Davutoglu in the span of less than a week, Davutoglu announced his resignation as head of government and head of the AKP party on 5 May 2016. This policy brief examines the key points of contention between Erdogan and Davutoglu, the republic’s governmental crisis, the impact of Davutoglu’s resignation on the Justice and Development (AKP) Party and the possibility of constitutional reform that will change the country’s system of governance.
Topic:: Democratization, Political Power Sharing, and Political stability
Political Geography:: Turkey

102. Enter and exit: everyday state practices at Somaliland’s Hargeisa Egal International Airport

Author:: Tobias Gandrup
Publication Date:: 08-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: The airport of Hargeisa, the capital of the officially unrecognized Republic of Somaliland, has been refurbished and upgraded over the past years in order to live up to international standards for security, immigration control and handling. In a new DIIS working paper, Tobias Gandrup (University of Antwerp) describes the contested role of the airport since colonial times and the collapse of the Somali state in 1991. By analysing the everyday practices of the airport as a way of 'performing the state', controlling entry and exit, Gandrup shows how the international standards act as external drivers for the formation of a new state in Somaliland. In this way, the licensed airport also provides a degree of international recognition to Somaliland.
Topic:: Democratization, Development, Fragile States, Economy, Conflict, Peacebuilding, and Airports
Political Geography:: Africa and Somaliland

103. Transitional justice and democratisation nexus: Challenges of confronting legacies of past injustices and promoting reconciliation within weak institutions in Kenya

Author:: Ibrahim Magara
Publication Date:: 08-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Following the post-election violence (PEV) of 2007-8, which almost jettisoned the country into civil war, Kenya put in place a number of transitional justice mechanisms, such as truth telling, as a peacebuilding strategy. One of the major recommendations of Kenya’s Truth, Justice, and Reconciliation Commission (TJRC) is the creation of institutions and mechanisms for peacebuilding, reconciliation, and early warning with a view towards harmonising their activities and adopting a coordinated approach. This article explicates the centrality of democratic institutional reforms in the process of reconciliation, peacebuilding, and long-term stability. In tackling the notion of national reconciliation as a central pillar in post-conflict recovery and peacebuilding, this paper proposes that reconciliation happens within strong and properly functioning institutions of governance that are supportive of transitional justice mechanisms. Based on the transitional justice process in Kenya and building upon a view of reconciliation as a process, rather than an end, this paper argues that strengthening institutions that function within governance structures will go a long way towards placing Kenya on the path to reconciliation, national cohesion, and long term stability.
Topic:: Democratization, Transitional Justice, Institutions, Reconciliation, and Injustice
Political Geography:: Kenya and Africa

104. Montenegro: Elections Aftermath and the European Commission’s 2016 Country Progress Reports

Author:: Srđan Cvijić and Stevo Muk
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Open Society Foundations
Abstract:: Politically, Montenegro finds itself in a paradoxical situation. At one level it is the champion of European integration in the Western Balkans when it comes to progress in the EU accession negotiations, but it is also the only country in the region that has not experienced a change of government since the introduction of the multiparty system in 1990. The same individuals, families, and political and business elites have been controlling the country’s politics and economy for more than 25 years. This situation is likely to continue after the recently held October 16 parliamentary elections where the ruling Democratic Party of Socialists managed once again to secure the most seats in parliament but fell short of securing an absolute majority. Key conclusions in this report include: the October elections were marked by numerous irregularities and were held in problematic conditions; the Montenegrin government and European Commission need to focus more on reforms in the area of the rule of law; the EU accession process remains unclear and lacks transparency. The authors present recommendations to the European Commission, European Parliament, and the EU member states for moving forward.
Topic:: Democratization, Government, Elections, European Union, Democracy, and Rule of Law
Political Geography:: Europe, Balkans, and Montenegro

105. Euromaidan, War, and the Development of Ukraine’s Political System in 2014 - 2015

Author:: Mykhailo Minakov
Publication Date:: 05-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:: Have the Euromaidan protests broken the rout of authoritarian rule in Ukraine? Is Ukraine’s political system tending towards free, democratic and open? It is probably too early to give a definite answer to these questions. In my opinion, there are two competing agendas in Ukraine, one of which supports the development of democracy, and the other which threatens it. The vast majority of Ukrainians supports one of these agendas and formulates demands correspondingly. Ukraine’s democratic prospects are in the process of unfolding.
Topic:: Political Violence, Democratization, International Affairs, and Authoritarianism
Political Geography:: Ukraine

106. Tunisia’s Volatile Transition to Democracy

Author:: Lauren Baker
Publication Date:: 11-2015
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:: On October 9, the Tunisian National Dialogue Quartet was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for its work shepherding a peaceful transition of power. This accolade highlighted Tunisia’s success creating compromise and building coalition, while avoiding much of the violence and authoritarian backsliding of its neighbors. What lessons can be learned from its example, and what challenges still await this fledgling democracy? POMEPS Briefing 27 “Tunisia’s Volatile Transition to Democracy” brings together 20 essential articles published by the Project on Middle East Political Science and the Monkey Cage that illuminate this small but important state’s internal politics and regional impact. The National Dialogue came at a pivotal moment for the nascent Tunisian democracy. As trust in its first democratically elected government waned, the nation had to navigate the resignation of the Troika government, without following Egypt’s path to anti-Islamist authoritarianism. The parliamentary and presidential elections of 2014 marked a democratic milestone as the centrist Nidaa Tunis took over from Islamist Ennahda, then — to the frustration of some members in both parties — brought it into a coalition government. The contrast between the fate of Islamists in Tunisia and Egypt on one hand and Turkey on the other is marked. However, despite these notable achievements, the Tunisian democracy has failed to represent a significant portion of the population and overall confidence in the democratic process is slipping. Many of the revolutionaries who initially participated in the uprisings remain disenchanted with their options for representation. Meanwhile, citizens in the interior continue to struggle with staggering levels of unemployment, as elites work the outdated system to their advantage. Though it was the main motivator for the revolution, the economic situation in the country has made little progress. Citizens must also balance their desire for personal freedoms with the need for security, and recent terror attacks have done little to assuage these concerns.
Topic:: Democratization, International Affairs, and Popular Revolt
Political Geography:: Tunisia

107. Turkey’s Democratic Struggles

Author:: POMEPS
Publication Date:: 06-2015
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:: Turkey Brief 26 Turkey’s Democratic Struggles POMEPS Briefing 26 — June 17, 2015 On June 7, Turkish voters denied a majority to the long-ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and pushed the Kurdish Democratic People’s Party (HDP) over the electoral threshold for the first time. A number of critical trends in Turkish politics came together in the June 2015 parliamentary election: President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s authoritarian ambitions, Kurdish political evolution, an unpopular Syria policy and the stunning break between AKP and the Islamist Gulen movement. POMEPS Briefings 26 “Turkey’s Democratic Struggles” brings together more than a dozen essays published by the Project on Middle East Political Science and the Monkey Cage that help to make sense of the stakes and results of this crucial election.
Topic:: Democratization and Democracy
Political Geography:: Turkey

108. Mapping Bangladesh's Political Crisis

Publication Date:: 02-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: On 5 January, the first anniversary of the deeply contested 2014 elections, the most violent in Bangladesh's history, clashes between government and opposition groups led to several deaths and scores injured. The confrontation marks a new phase of the deadlock between the ruling Awami League (AL) and the Bangladesh National Party (BNP) opposition, which have swapped time in government with metronomic consistency since independence. Having boycotted the 2014 poll, the BNP appears bent on ousting the government via street power. With daily violence at the pre-election level, the political crisis is fast approaching the point of no return and could gravely destabilise Bangladesh unless the sides move urgently to reduce tensions. Moreover, tribunals set up to adjudicate crimes perpetrated at the moment of Bangladesh's bloody birth threaten division more than reconciliation. Both parties would be best served by changing course: the AL government by respecting the democratic right to dissent (recalling its time in opposition); the BNP by reviving its political fortunes through compromise with the ruling party, rather than violent street politics. With the two largest mainstream parties unwilling to work toward a new political compact that respects the rights of both opposition and victor to govern within the rule of law, extremists and criminal networks could exploit the resulting political void. Violent Islamist factions are already reviving, threatening the secular, democratic order. While jihadi forces see both parties as the main hurdle to the establishment of an Islamic order, the AL and the BNP perceive each other as the main adversary. The AL and its leader, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajid, emphasise that the absence from parliament of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia and her BNP make them political non-entities. Yet, concerned about a comeback, the government is at-tempting to forcibly neutralise the political opposition and stifle dissent, including by bringing corruption and other criminal cases against party leaders, among whom are Zia and her son and heir apparent, Tarique Rahman; heavy-handed use of police and paramilitary forces; and legislation and policies that undermine fundamental constitutional rights. The BNP, which has not accepted any responsibility for the election-related vio-lence in 2014 that left hundreds dead (and saw hundreds of Hindu homes and shops vandalised), is again attempting to oust the government by force, in alliance with the Jamaat-e-Islami, which is alleged to have committed some of the worst abuses during that period. The party retains its core supporters and seems to have successfully mobilised its activists on the streets. Yet, its sole demand – for a fresh election under a neutral caretaker – is too narrow to generate the public support it needs to over-come the disadvantage of being out of parliament, and its political capital is fading fast as it again resorts to violence. The deep animosity and mistrust between leaders and parties were not inevitable. Despite a turbulent history, they earlier cooperated to end direct or indirect military rule and strengthen democracy, most recently during the 2007-2008 tenure of the military-backed caretaker government (CTG), when the high command tried to re-move both Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia from politics. Rather than building on that cooperation, the two leaders have resorted to non-democratic methods to undermine each other. In power, both have used centralised authority, a politicised judiciary and predatory law enforcement agencies against legitimate opposition. Underpinning the current crisis is the failure to agree on basic standards for multi-party democratic functioning. While the BNP claims to be the guardian of Bangladeshi nationalism, the AL has attempted to depict itself as the sole author and custodian of Bangladesh's liberation. The International Crimes Tribunal (ICT), established by the AL in March 2010 to prosecute individuals accused of committing atrocities during the 1971 liberation war, should be assessed in this context. While the quest to bring perpetrators to account is justifiable, the ICTs are not simply, or even primarily, a legal tool, but rather are widely perceived as a political one, primarily for use against the government's Islamist opposition. In short, the governing AL is seen to be using the nation's founding tragedy for self-serving political gains. The AL needs to realise that the BNP's marginalisation from mainstream politics could encourage anti-government activism to find more radical avenues, all the more so in light of its own increasingly authoritarian bent. Equally, the BNP would do well to abandon its alliances of convenience with violent Islamist groups and seek to revive agreement on a set of basic standards for multiparty democracy. A protracted and violent political crisis would leave Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia the ultimate losers, particularly if a major breakdown of law and order were to encourage the military to intervene; though there is as yet no sign of that, history suggests it is an eventuality not to be dismissed. The opportunities for political reconciliation are fast diminishing, as political battle lines become ever more entrenched. Both parties should restrain their violent activist base and take practical steps to reduce political tensions: the AL government should commit to a non-repressive response to political dis-sent, rein in and ensure accountability for abuses committed by law enforcement entities, reverse measures that curb civil liberties and assertively protect minority communities against attack and dispossession of properties and businesses; the AL should invite the BNP, at lower levels of seniority if needed, to negotiations aimed at reviving the democratic rules of the game, including electoral reform. It should also hold mayoral elections in Dhaka, a long-overdue constitutional requirement that would provide opportunities to begin that dialogue; and the BNP should commit to non-violent political opposition; refrain from an alliance with the Jamaat-e-Islami that is enhancing the Islamist opposition's street power with little political return for the BNP; and instead demonstrate willingness to engage in meaningful negotiations with the AL to end a crisis that is undermining economic growth and threatening to subvert the political order.
Topic:: Democratization, Political Activism, and Elections
Political Geography:: Bangladesh and Asia

109. The Military And The Challenge Of Democratic Consolidation In Nigeria: Positive Skepticism And Negative Optimism

Author:: Emmanuel O. Ojo
Publication Date:: 03-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:: Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:: This paper is an attempt to consider the role of the military in Nigeria's democratic transitions. The paper has one major thrust – an in-depth analysis of military role in democratic transitions in Nigeria - the fundamental question, however, is: can the military ever be expected or assumed to play any major role in building democracy? The reality on the ground in Africa is that the military as an institution has never been completely immune from politics and the role of nation-building. However, whether they have been doing that perfectly or not is another question entirely which this paper shall address.
Topic:: Democratization
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

110. Electoral Rentierism? The Cross-National and Subnational Effect of Oil on Electoral Competitiveness in Multiparty Autocracies

Author:: Matthias Basedau and Michael Wahman
Publication Date:: 04-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:: Building on theoretical insights from research on the rentier state and the “resource curse,” several studies have supported the argument that oil hinders democracy. However, previous research on the rentier state has neglected the global surge of multiparty autocracies or “electoral authoritarian” regimes since the end of the Cold War. No systematic study has been carried out on the question of whether or not and how oil affects electoral contests in nondemocratic regimes. In this paper we contribute to filling this gap by combing the literature on multiparty autocracy and the political economy of the rentier state. As oil production creates substantial, nontransparent revenue streams to national and subnational governments, we hypothesize that oil production has a negative effect on electoral competitiveness, both cross‐ and subnationally, in multiparty autocracies. Consequently, the democratic “resource curse” emphasized in earlier work on the rentier state is likely to persist even after the introduction of multipartyism in cases where oil production predates democratic institutions. The paper tests the hypothesis cross‐nationally, using data on all multiparty elections held in the world in the period 1975–2010, and subnationally, using a new data set on subnational election results and oil production in Nigeria. Our results confirm that oil impedes electoral competitiveness, both cross‐ and subnationally, in multiparty autocracies.
Topic:: Cold War, Democratization, and Oil
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

111. The Assad Regime’s Hold on the Syrian State

Author:: Kheder Khaddour
Publication Date:: 07-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Since the early days of the Syrian uprising in 2011, President Bashar al-Assad’s regime has made it a priority to keep state agencies running, allowing Assad to claim that the regime is the irreplaceable provider of essential services. Breaking the regime’s monopoly on these public services and enabling the moderate opposition to become an alternative source of them would weaken the regime and prevent the radical jihadist Islamic State from emerging to fill power vacuums across the country.
Topic:: Civil War, Democratization, Islam, Governance, Sectarian violence, and Authoritarianism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arab Countries

112. Understanding the Indian Voter

Author:: Milan Vaishnav
Publication Date:: 06-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) historic victory in India’s 2014 general election prompted declarations of a watershed in the behavior of the Indian voter. Upon closer inspection, the reality is more nuanced. On some parameters, such as voting based on economic and ethnic considerations, there were indeed discernible changes. However, the empirical evidence suggests these shifts were well under way before 2014. In other areas—namely, support for regional parties, dynastic politicians, and candidates associated with criminal activity—contemporary voters demonstrated much greater continuity with the past.
Topic:: Democratization, Demographics, Ethnic Conflict, Political Economy, and Governance
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

113. The Electoral Basis of Ideological Polarization in Latin America

Author:: Juan Andrés Moraes
Publication Date:: 03-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: Polarization has been always identified as a problem for Latin American democracies. Yet its determinants remain largely undertheorized and without systematic evidence. This paper tackles this shortcoming with a new explanation where polarization is conceptualized as a mobilizational tool used by parties to deliver unequivocal signals to voters about their location in the policy space. The explanation holds that Parties’ strategies depend on the electoral context in which they compete, making volatility a crucial indicator of their behavior. Low-volatility contexts inhibit parties from seeking polarization due to potential electoral punishments by voters and the internal costs of programmatic change within the party organization. High volatility, however, increases the risk of electoral survival, decreasing the costs of seeking polarization. Here, volatility makes polarization more likely. Using time-series cross-sectional regression analysis for eighteen Latin American countries for 1995–2010, this paper provides robust statistical results to support the causal link between electoral volatility and polarization.
Topic:: Democratization, Demographics, Political Economy, and Governance
Political Geography:: Latin America

114. Democratization and Other Civil War Legacies in Central America

Author:: Fabrice Lehoucq
Publication Date:: 02-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: This paper analyzes the impact of civil war on regime change. It focuses on Central America, a region where several countries underwent transitions to democracy in the wake of civil war during the second half of the twentieth century. It argues that armed conflict, not increasing levels of economic development, led to political change. Violence liquidated stubbornly resilient autocracies in El Salvador and Nicaragua, catalyzed the democratization of Costa Rican politics, and was the backdrop to regime liberalization in Guatemala. Postwar negotiations, at a time when Cold War bipolarity was ending, led to the establishment of more open, civilian regimes on the isthmus. This paper also notes that the transition from autocracy was enormously costly in both lives and economic well-being, which helps to explain why political change has given birth to low-quality democracies or mixed regimes on the isthmus, ones that also have witnessed the explosion of criminal and drug-related violence.
Topic:: Civil War, Crime, Democratization, Development, Regime Change, and Narcotics Trafficking
Political Geography:: Latin America

115. Venezuela: Unnatural Disaster

Publication Date:: 07-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The accelerating deterioration of Venezuela’s political crisis is cause for growing concern. The collapse in 2014 of an incipient dialogue between government and opposition ushered in growing political instability. With legislative elections due in December, there are fears of renewed violence. But there is a less widely appreciated side of the drama. A sharp fall in real incomes, major shortages of essential foods, medicines and other basic goods and breakdown of the health service are elements of a looming social crisis. If not tackled decisively and soon, it will become a humanitarian disaster with a seismic impact on domestic politics and society, and on Venezuela’s neighbours. This situation results from poor policy choices, incompetence and corruption; however, its gravest consequences can still be avoided. This will not happen unless the political deadlock is overcome and a fresh consensus forged, which in turn requires strong engagement of foreign governments and multilateral bodies.
Topic:: Democratization, Development, Health, Food, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Latin America

116. Regime Type, Inequality, and Redistributive Transfers in Developing Countries

Author:: Marina Dodlova and Anna Giolbas
Publication Date:: 05-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:: The debate on whether democracy and inequality increase the level of redistribution in a country is still ongoing. We construct a model that predicts a higher probability of redistribution in democracies than in autocracies. Further, with higher initial inequality, there should be more redistribution in democracies but not necessarily in autocracies. We test these predictions using data on social transfers in developing countries for the period 1960–2010. We confirm that democracy increases redistribution and, to some extent, that there is more redistribution with rising inequality. Hence, on the basis of a direct measure of redistribution, we present evidence to confirm the median voter theorem.
Topic:: Democratization, Social Stratification, and Authoritarianism

117. The Japan-South Korea Identity Clash: East Asian Security and the United States

Author:: Brad Glosserman and Scott A. Snyder
Publication Date:: 05-2015
Content Type:: Book
Institution:: Columbia University Press
Abstract:: Japan and South Korea are Western-style democracies with open-market economies committed to the rule of law. They are also U.S. allies. Yet despite their shared interests, shared values, and geographic proximity, divergent national identities have driven a wedge between them. Drawing on decades of expertise, Brad Glosserman and Scott Snyder investigate the roots of this split and its ongoing threat to the region and the world. Glosserman and Snyder isolate competing notions of national identity as the main obstacle to a productive partnership between Japan and South Korea. Through public opinion data, interviews, and years of observation, they show how fundamentally incompatible, rapidly changing conceptions of national identity in Japan and South Korea--and not struggles over power or structural issues--have complicated territorial claims and international policy. Despite changes in the governments of both countries and concerted efforts by leading political figures to encourage US-ROK-Japan security cooperation, the Japan-Korea relationship continues to be hobbled by history and its deep imprint on ideas of national identity. This book recommends bold, policy-oriented prescriptions for overcoming problems in Japan-Korea relations and facilitating trilateral cooperation among these three Northeast Asian allies, recognizing the power of the public on issues of foreign policy, international relations, and the prospects for peace in Asia.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Democratization, International Trade and Finance, International Affairs, and Power Politics
Political Geography:: Japan, East Asia, and South Korea
Publication Identifier:: 9780231539289
Publication Identifier Type:: ISBN

118. Voices of the Arab Spring: Personal Stories from the Arab Revolutions

Author:: Asaad Al-Saleh
Publication Date:: 03-2015
Content Type:: Book
Institution:: Columbia University Press
Abstract:: Narrated by dozens of activists and everyday individuals, this book documents the unprecedented events that led to the collapse of dictatorial regimes in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen. Beginning in 2011, these stories offer unique access to the message that inspired citizens to act, their experiences during revolt, and the lessons they learned from some of the most dramatic changes and appalling events to occur in the history of the Arab world. The riveting, revealing, and sometimes heartbreaking stories in this volume also include voices from Syria. Featuring participants from a variety of social and educational backgrounds and political commitments, these personal stories of action represent the Arab Spring's united and broad social movements, collective identities, and youthful character. For years, the volume's participants lived under regimes that brutally suppressed free expression and protest. Their testimony speaks to the multifaceted emotional, psychological, and cultural factors that motivated citizens to join together to struggle against their oppressors.
Topic:: Democratization, Development, Insurgency, Authoritarianism, and Popular Revolt
Political Geography:: Middle East and North Africa
Publication Identifier:: 9780231163194
Publication Identifier Type:: ISBN

119. His Excellency Dr. Mohammad Ashraf Ghani, President of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan

Publication Date:: 03-2015
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Columbia University World Leaders Forum
Abstract:: This World Leaders Forum program features an address by His Excellency Dr. Mohammad Ashraf Ghani, President of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, titled, The New Beginning in Afghanistan: A Conversation with President Mohammad Ashraf Ghani, followed by a question and answer session with the audience. Introduction and Moderated by: Lee C. Bollinger, President, Columbia University in the City of New York
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Development, Foreign Aid, and Governance
Political Geography:: Central Asia

120. How Do Non-Democratic Regimes Claim Legitimacy? Comparative Insights from Post-Soviet Countries

Author:: Christian von Soest and Julia Grauvogel
Publication Date:: 08-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:: The analysis using the new Regime Legitimation Expert Survey (RLES) demonstrates that non‐democratic rulers in post‐Soviet countries use specific combinations of legitimating claims to stay in power. Most notably, rulers claim to be the guardians of citizens’ socio‐ economic well‐being. Second, despite recurrent infringements on political and civil rights, they maintain that their power is rule‐based and embodies the will of the people, as they have been given popular electoral mandates. Third, they couple these elements with input‐based legitimation strategies that focus on nationalist ideologies, the personal capabilities and charismatic aura of the rulers, and the regime’s foundational myth. Overall, the reliance on these input‐based strategies is lower in the western post‐Soviet Eurasian countries and very pronounced among the authoritarian rulers of Central Asia.
Topic:: Democratization, Authoritarianism, and Political Activism
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe

121. Changing Attitudes under New and Old Systems

Author:: Carolyn Barnett
Publication Date:: 07-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Elites in Tunisia and Jordan stress their need to invest in their human resources, because people are the only resources they have. An array of programs has arisen in both countries to help young people learn life and job skills, find appropriate careers, and launch new businesses. Yet a look at recent and ongoing workforce development efforts in each country reveals that these schemes are intended to produce something fundamentally different in each country. Tunisians are working to overcome the legacies of dictatorship and build a new, more democratic system while simultaneously carrying out economic reforms that aim to alter the state’s role in the economy. Jordanians are trying to alter society and economic incentives within a political status quo where too much change too quickly could threaten the political order, and the government therefore faces compelling reasons both to reform and to keep things as they are. This report examines how similar efforts have evolved in these contrasting contexts
Topic:: Democratization, Economics, Human Welfare, and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East

122. Afghanistan’s Fourth Estate: Independent Media

Author:: Ann Proctor
Publication Date:: 08-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Afghanistan’s media have evolved at warp speed since the fall of the Taliban in 2001, yet being a journalist remains an extremely dangerous occupation, as many have been killed and still more threatened with violence if they persist in their work. The growth of Afghanistan’s democracy depends on a functioning media. This report examines the situation and offers paths forward to making Afghanistan safer for journalism.
Topic:: Democratization, Human Rights, Communications, and Mass Media
Political Geography:: Afghanistan

123. Centrafrique : les racines de la violence

Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Crisis in the Central African Republic (CAR) is longterm and characterised by sporadic surges of violence against a backdrop of state disintegration, a survival economy and deep inter-ethnic cleavages. Armed groups (including the anti-balaka and the ex-Seleka) are fragmenting and becoming increasingly criminalised; intercommunal tensions have hampered efforts to promote CAR’s national unity and mend its social fabric. Unfortunately, the roadmap to end the crisis, which includes elections before the end of 2015, presents a short-term answer. To avoid pursuing a strategy that would merely postpone addressing critical challenges until after the polls, CAR’s transitional authorities and international partners should address them now by implementing a comprehensive disarmament policy, and reaffirming that Muslims belong within the nation. If this does not happen, the elections risk becoming a zero-sum game.
Topic:: Political Violence, Arms Control and Proliferation, Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, Political Economy, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:: Africa

124. Kurdistan’s Politicized Society Confronts a Sultanistic System

Author:: Kawa Hassan
Publication Date:: 08-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: The Kurdistan region of Iraq enjoys more stability, economic development, and political pluralism than the rest of the country. And public opinion under the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) demands rule-of-law-based governance. But power is concentrated in the hands of the ruling parties and families, who perpetuate a nondemocratic, sultanistic system. These dynamics could foster instability in Kurdistan and its neighborhood, but could also provide a rare window of opportunity for democratization.
Topic:: Democratization, Development, Economics, Political Economy, Governance, and Authoritarianism
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan

125. Silencing the Guns: Strengthening Governance to Prevent, Manage, and Resolve Conflicts in Africa

Author:: Gilbert Khadiagala
Publication Date:: 05-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: Since independence, African states and organizations have made significant investments in conflict management and resolution tools. So why do some African states and regions remain saddled by conflict and instability? How can African states leverage democratic governance to end wars? The new report Silencing the Guns suggests that the key to ending conflict in Africa lies in fostering effective governance and creating political and economic institutions that can effectively prevent, manage, and resolve conflicts. Author Gilbert Khadiagala unpacks how and why democratic governance is linked to conflict prevention and management, and provides an overview of landmark trends that have influenced governance in Africa since the 1950s. He shows that not all forms of democratic governance reduce conflicts and examines the ways in which “developmental dictatorships,” corruption, and the privatization of security are posing obstacles for governance and peace today.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Democratization, and Governance
Political Geography:: Africa

126. Somaliland: The Strains of Success

Publication Date:: 10-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Somaliland’s hybrid system of tri-party democracy and traditional clan-based governance has enabled the consolidation of state-like authority, social and economic recovery and, above all, relative peace and security but now needs reform. Success has brought greater resources, including a special funding status with donors – especially the UK, Denmark and the European Union (EU) – as well as investment from and diplomatic ties with Turkey and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), though not international recognition. It is increasingly part of the regional system; ties are especially strong with Ethiopia and Djibouti. Given the continued fragility of the Somalia Federal Government (SFG), which still rejects its former northern region’s independence claims, and civil war across the Gulf of Aden in Yemen, Somaliland’s continued stability is vital. This in turn requires political reforms aimed at greater inclusion, respect for mediating institutions (especially the professional judiciary and parliament) and a regional and wider internationally backed framework for external cooperation and engagement.
Topic:: Democratization, Governance, and Elections
Political Geography:: Africa and Somaliland

127. Tunisia: The Last Arab Spring Country

Author:: Mohsin Khan and Karim Merzan
Publication Date:: 10-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded the Tunisian National Dialogue Quartet, a civil society group comprising the Tunisian General Labor Union; the Tunisian Union of Industry, Trade, and Handicrafts; the Tunisian Human Rights League; and the Tunisian Order of Lawyers the 2015 Nobel Peace Prize on Friday, October 9, 2015 "for its decisive contribution to the building of a pluralistic democracy in Tunisia." In a new Atlantic Council Issue Brief, "Tunisia: The Last Arab Spring Country," Atlantic Council Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East Senior Fellows Mohsin Khan and Karim Mezran survey the successes of Tunisia's consensus-based transition and the challenges that lie ahead. "The decision to award this year's Nobel Peace Prize to Tunisia's National Dialogue Quartet is an extremely important recognition of the efforts made by Tunisian civil society and Tunisia's political elite to reach a consensus on keeping the country firmly on the path to democratization and transition to a pluralist system," says Mezran. With the overthrow of the authoritarian regime of President Zine El Abedine Ben Ali in 2011, Tunisia embarked on a process of democratization widely regarded as an example for transitions in the region. The National Dialogue Conference facilitated by the Quartet helped Tunisia avert the risk of plunging into civil war and paved the way for a consensus agreement on Tunisia's new constitution, adopted in January 2014. In the brief, the authors warn that despite political successes, Tunisia is hampered by the absence of economic reforms. Facing the loss of tourism and investment following two terror attacks, Tunisia's economy risks collapse, endangering all of the painstaking political progress gained thus far. Unless the Tunisian government moves rapidly to turn the economy around, Tunisia risks unraveling its fragile transition.
Topic:: Security, Democratization, Economics, Political Activism, and Reform
Political Geography:: Arab Countries and Tunisia

128. Tunisia's New Constitutional Court

Author:: Duncan Pickard
Publication Date:: 04-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: January 2014 became a milestone of Arab democracy when Tunisia adopted the first democratic Arab constitution drafted outside the influence of the military or a foreign power. In "Tunisia's New Constitutional Court," Duncan Pickard, a Nonresident Fellow at the Atlantic Council's Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, takes up the next step for the country's democracy: developing a functioning Constitutional Court. He introduces the court's structures, outlines the various challenges that the new parliament will face in drafting a law to officially establish the court, and details policy options for the United States and Europe to support Tunisia's nascent democracy.
Topic:: Democratization, Politics, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:: Arab Countries and Tunisia

129. A Tale of Two Villages: Kinship Networks and Political Preference Change in Rural India

Author:: Neelanjan Sircar
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: This paper develops a theory on how voters form and change political preferences in democratic developing world contexts. In the developing world, where state institutions are often weak, voters tend to be more focused on the competence and capacity of parties and candidates to deliver benefits. Such information may be difficult to ascertain, so voters must glean information from how candidates conduct themselves during the electoral campaign. Voters use kinship networks to develop more accurate preferences by collectively reasoning through newly available information on candidates. In order to demonstrate these claims, this study analyzes data collected on political preferences and kinship networks in two villages just before and after the campaign period during the 2011 Assembly election in the Indian state of West Bengal. The paper finds very strong kinship network effects on changes in issue preferences and vote choice over the course of the campaign and explains the results through qualitative work and a series of network autoregressive statistical models. In sum, this paper demonstrates how voters develop independent preferences and implement political change, even in low information contexts with weak human capital.
Topic:: Democratization, Politics, Self Determination, and Elections
Political Geography:: India

130. Whose Side Are You On? Identifying the Distributive Preferences of Local Politicians in India

Author:: Mark Schneider and Neelanjan Sircar
Publication Date:: 08-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: The literature on decentralized public programs suggests that errors in the targeting of anti-poverty programs are rooted in the capture of these programs by local elites or local politicians. Consistent with the literature on moral economy in political science and experimental economics, we argue that voters in contexts of rural poverty prefer local leaders who target subsistence benefits to the poor. In a high information village context, where voters and leaders know each other, we argue that local elections lead to the selection of local leaders with pro-poor preferences over the distribution of these benefits. We show this with a novel theory of local politicians’ social preferences. We test our theory with unique data from a behavioral measure, conducted in the context of a lottery with a modest cash prize in rural India, that captures a scenario in which local leaders have full discretion and anonymity over allocation among members of their rural communities. We analyze our data using a novel estimation strategy that takes the characteristics of the pool of potential beneficiaries into account in decisions over allocation under a budget constraint. We find that local leaders have strong preferences for targeting the poor, and particularly those they believe supported them politically in the past. This article suggests that free and fair elections at the local level can powerfully encourage pro-poor targeting even in contexts of weak institutions and pervasive poverty. It also makes a fundamental contribution to research on distributive politics by challenging research in this area to demonstrate the effect of electoral strategies and other distortions on allocation relative to local leaders’ baseline distributive preferences.
Topic:: Democratization, Economics, Politics, Political Theory, and Elections
Political Geography:: India

131. Towards European Electoral and Party Systems

Author:: Enrico Calossi
Publication Date:: 12-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Although much progress has been achieved in the last sixty years, the European Union still lacks a unique electoral system and a proper party system. Recently some changes have been proposed or introduced in order to homogenise the national electoral systems of the EP and to strengthen political parties at the EU level. Andrew Duff’s proposal for a transnational party list; the establishment of European political foundations in 2007; the updating of the Statute of the European political parties in 2014; the designation of the Spitzekandidaten by Europarties were all useful attempts. More could be done. National democracies can become sources of inspiration for new proposals. Some suggestions may require new formal regulations. Others are more informal or political, and would give political actors new opportunities on voluntary bases.
Topic:: Democratization, Political Economy, Regional Cooperation, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe
Publication Identifier:: 978-88-98650-72-9
Publication Identifier Type:: ISBN

132. Authoritarian Stability through Perpetual Democratisation

Author:: Francesco Cavatorta
Publication Date:: 10-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The survival of the Moroccan monarchy during the Arab revolts did not come as a surprise. Once the King reclaimed political leadership through the launch of a constitutional reform, the protest movement faded and whatever challenge to the pre-eminence of the monarchy in the political system might have existed ended quickly. A number of different and interlinked explanations have been advanced for the survival of authoritarianism in Morocco, but they generally rehash conventional wisdoms about Moroccan politics that may not be as valid as they were in the past. This paper looks beyond such traditional explanations, focusing on less obvious factors that contributed to the survival of the monarchy. A more sophisticated explanation for the survival of the regime can serve as a more insightful guide to what Morocco might look like in the future and what are the challenges and opportunities ahead.
Topic:: Democratization, Governance, Authoritarianism, Popular Revolt, and Reform
Political Geography:: North Africa
Publication Identifier:: 978-88-98650-67-5
Publication Identifier Type:: ISBN

133. Social, Economic and Political Dynamics in Tunisia and the Related Short- to Medium-Term Scenarios

Author:: Maryam Ben Salem
Publication Date:: 10-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Tunisia is the only Arab Spring country which has succeeded so far in its democratic transition. Now that all the democratic institutions have been put in place, and after the legislative and presidential elections of 2014, the chances of democratic consolidation remain to be seen. Yet the regime faces serious challenges that cast doubt on its survival capacity. The political dynamics at play after the 2014 elections, which allowed Nidaa Tounes to come to power, cannot be understood without taking into account the conditions surrounding the political transition itself. The National Dialogue, hosted by the Quartet who were recently awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, is key to understanding the ongoing process of democracy consolidation. Taking into account both contingent and structural factors, this paper analyses how the current context is likely to shape the choices of the presidency of the Republic and of the Essid government, as well as the implications in terms of their legitimacy.
Topic:: Democratization, Islam, Regime Change, and Popular Revolt
Political Geography:: North Africa
Publication Identifier:: 978-88-98650-65-1
Publication Identifier Type:: ISBN

134. Burma Before the Elections

Author:: Zoltan Barany
Publication Date:: 10-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Burma’s upcoming elections will be a test of how much the country’s political scene has changed since the generals’ tentative liberalisation programme began five years ago. The National League for Democracy, led by democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi, is likely to win big. Still, it may not get the two-thirds of the parliamentary seats open for competition that it needs to form a government. If it does not, it ought to blame itself, for the NLD has been unwilling to enter into coalitions either with much-respected civic organisations or with the increasingly vocal and well-organised ethnic parties. At the same time, the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party has led a smart campaign just short of breaking the electoral laws. Both the USDP and ethnic parties might do better than expected and cost the NLD – dominated and controlled by Suu Kyi – a crucial opportunity to advance democracy.
Topic:: Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, Political Economy, Authoritarianism, and Reform
Political Geography:: Southeast Asia
Publication Identifier:: 978-88-98650-63-7
Publication Identifier Type:: ISBN

135. Regional Security through Inclusive Reform in the Maghreb and the Sahel

Author:: Querine Hanlon and Joyce Kasee
Publication Date:: 12-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Throughout the Maghreb and the Sahel, governments are struggling to manage a security environment fundamentally transformed by the Arab Spring. Within this region, the efforts of governments to secure their territories and civil society organizations to create accountable and transparent security institutions have proceeded almost wholly divorced from each other. This Peace Brief shares key insights from the engagement between official and civil society actors both within and across borders to address these gaps, makes the case for working regionally to address the twin challenges of security and reform, and highlights how community-security partnerships offer one approach to advancing the region’s security and reform agenda.
Topic:: Security, Democratization, Islam, Terrorism, and Popular Revolt
Political Geography:: Arab Countries and North Africa

136. Morals in International Politics

Author:: A. Orlov
Publication Date:: 03-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: The world is changing fast; it is changing by leaps and bounds which makes it next to impossible to explain what is going on and to foresee possible repercussions.1 An unsophisticated observer in the West and elsewhere in the world where Western propaganda is heard and believed might imagine that the forces of freedom and democracy are waging an uncompromising struggle against despotism and tyranny (in the widest sense of the terms). It is implied that the United States and the rest of the civilized West are on the side of the forces of good confronted by an obscure conglomerate of the forces of evil, of which Russia is part if according to President Obama and certain other Western leaders. Former President of France Valéry Giscard d’Estaing has written in his memoirs that according to this interpretation the forces of good insist on democratic elections, human rights, and freedom of trade; America does not hesitate to use its might to defend good and oppose the forces of evil interfering with the fulfillment of these ideals.
Topic:: Democratization, Politics, International Affairs, Elections, and Ethics
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

137. Strategic Insights: Fragile States Cannot Be Fixed With State-Building

Author:: Dr. Robert D. Lamb
Publication Date:: 07-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: The problem with the way the international community thinks about and responds to fragile states is not that we do not understand “fragility,” its causes, and its cures, but that we think of them as “states,” as coherent units of analysis. As a result of this strategic level mistake, efforts to build state capacity to contain violence and reduce poverty are at least as likely to destabilize the country as they are to help. The U.S. military should consider the destabilizing potential of its efforts to build capacity, train and equip security forces, and provide support to diplomacy and development when its partners and beneficiaries are officials of fragile states. State formation has always been an exceedingly bloody endeavor. Most stable countries worthy of the term “state” that are stable, including wealthy, Western, liberal, or democratic nation-states, came into being through complicated social processes, including war, ethnic cleansing, or genocide. That violence was followed by an institutionalization of the values and social priorities of the victors, combined with some degree of accommodation for the vanquished across and within the new state’s borders. State formation, in other words, has always been a matter of violent exclusion followed by pragmatic inclusion. In all successful states today, those processes have resulted in stable formal political systems, with a significant degree of internal consensus over how those systems should be governed. Today, a quarter of the world’s population, and half of the world’s poor people by some estimates, live in places commonly referred to as “fragile states,” beset by conflict, poverty traps, low social cohesion and, in many cases, cycles of violence and terror. These pathologies are not contained within the borders of fragile states, however. As it is ritually noted in most articles on state fragility, these are places that often generate dangerous spillovers: regional tensions, international terrorism, transnational organized crime, an inability to contain outbreaks of disease, and other problems generally associated with the term “instability.” But fragile states are not “states” in the same sense as those that are stable. They developed differently. They went through periods of tribal governance and warfare and, in some cases, territorial consolidation, as European states did, but then most were subjected to colonization by distant powers or severe domination by regional hegemons, in both cases with foreigners imposing borders and manipulating local politics, elevating one set of elites at the expense of populations with whom they did not share a tribal, ethnic, or national identity. When those foreign powers left (or reduced their footprint), the empowered elites either held on to power or were removed from power by their former subjects. In both cases, the internal fragmentation of views about governance—who should govern and how—remained and in all fragile states continues to be one of the most important determinants of fragility. The most common international responses to these pathologies tend to be exploitation by regional powers, containment by developed countries concerned about spillovers of violence, and capacity building of national institutions by international development agencies attempting to address the “root causes” of fragility by building state structures capable of governing the way “states” are supposed to govern. Looking at these two sets of countries—well governed, legitimate, and stable on one side, with poorly governed, illegitimate, and unstable on the other—it is understandable to conclude that, if only fragile states were more legitimate and better governed, they would also be more stable, peaceful, and prosperous. Post-conflict reconstruction, stabilization, poverty reduction, and other efforts to improve the quality of life for people living in fragile and conflict environments tend, therefore, to focus on building the legitimacy and capacity of state institutions, both military and civilian. Efforts to reduce the spillover of violence and terrorism likewise have key elements of state-building. When, however, has state-building ever worked? That is, when has foreign assistance to formal state institutions and civil society over an extended period of time, in places whose borders were drawn by, and whose elites were elevated by, foreign powers but where local populations do not agree with each other over basic questions of legitimate governance, ever resulted in the establishment of a stable state, one that is no longer “fragile” (in the usual definitions) or at significant risk of a return to violent politics? Consider the places often cited as state-building success stories. When I have asked proponents of state-building to name unambiguous successes, the responses most commonly include Germany and Japan after World War II, East Timor, Kosovo, Sierra Leone, Liberia, and sometimes Rwanda. But Germany and Japan were already states with highly developed bureaucracies that were largely left in place after their military forces were defeated. These were not cases of state-building but of state recovery and, in truth, they have little to teach us about how to stabilize fragile states. The borders of East Timor and Kosovo came into being as a result of wars; they are clear examples of state formation still in progress, and it is difficult to call Kosovo a success story when that country’s stability continues to depend so much on an international presence. Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Rwanda have made progress, but they have not been stable long enough to be considered stabilized, and certainly they continue to appear on lists of fragile states. Moreover, some post-conflict countries that have done things “right” according to the typical state-building script have dramatically regressed into violence—El Salvador is an excellent example—whereas some that have done things “wrong,” such as Laos, have managed to remain stable for more than 40 years. As a thought experiment, consider the following two possibilities. A fragile state is territorially fragmented along ethnic and sectarian lines, there are frequent civilian attacks between identity groups, the parliament and ministries are dominated by one group at the expense of the others and, as a consequence, there is constant low-level violence punctuated by periods of intense internal war and repression by the majority ethnic group, which nevertheless enjoys international recognition and assistance as “the” government and the “partner” whose “capacity” is to be built. Years of pouring resources into that government and its security forces serve only to strengthen one group at the expense of the others, providing counsel (and few incentives) to treat the other groups better while giving them the capacity to treat the other groups worse, thereby increasing the potential for conflict. Yet, even in such places, there are some stable, reasonably well-governed territories and communities that maintain a great degree of independence from the central government, with consensus on how they want to be governed, capable of collecting the resources they need to do so (in some cases democratically), and able to defend themselves against external aggression. Somaliland is an excellent example, but most fragile states have similar communities (large percentages of Afghans, for example, have reported that the conflict this past decade simply never affected their community). Such places look suspiciously like they are engaging in classic state formation, and doing so with neither support from their national governments nor recognition from the international community—whose support of their national governments often undermines local, successful state formation. I am not arguing that the international community should try to break up fragile states into more stable territories. Outsiders are not likely to be any more effective at redrawing the borders of fragile states today than the outsiders who drew the modern borders of those counties in the first place. But when a country falls apart in a civil war such that the state can no longer be said to be relevant in some areas of the country, or when the elites in control of national governing institutions fail to support or recognize the legitimacy of large segments of their own populations, due consideration should be given to those areas of the country that manage to stabilize on their own and govern the areas they control in ways that are more consistent with international norms than the central government is or had been. State-building is ineffective, and breaking up states is dangerous. International support to (if not recognition of) subnational state formation in fragile states is, therefore, among the more promising ways to think about how best to respond to fragile states. ***** The views expressed in this Strategic Insights article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. This article is cleared for public release; distribution is unlimited. ***** Organizations interested in reprinting this or other SSI and USAWC Press articles should contact the Editor for Production via e-mail at SSI_Publishing@conus.army.mil. All organizations granted this right must include the following statement: “Reprinted with permission of the Strategic Studies Institute and U.S. Army War College Press, U.S. Army War College.”
Topic:: Security, Democratization, Development, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:: El Salvador and United States of America

138. The Strategic Lessons Unlearned from Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan: Why the ANSF Will Not Hold, and the Implications for the U.S. Army in Afghanistan

Author:: Dr. M. Chris Mason
Publication Date:: 06-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: The wars in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan were lost before they began, not on the battlefields, where the United States won every tactical engagement, but at the strategic level of war. In each case, the U.S. Government attempted to create a Western-style democracy in countries which were decades at least away from being nations with the sociopolitical capital necessary to sustain democracy and, most importantly, accept it as a legitimate source of governance. The expensive indigenous armies created in the image of the U.S. Army lacked both the motivation to fight for illegitimate governments in Saigon, Baghdad, and Kabul and a cause that they believed was worth dying for, while their enemies in the field clearly did not. This book examines the Afghan National Security Forces in historical and political contexts, explains why they will fail at the tactical, operational and strategic levels of war, why they cannot and will not succeed in holding the southern half of the country, and what will happen in Afghanistan year-by-year from 2015 to 2019. Finally, it examines what the critical lessons unlearned of these conflicts are for U.S. military leaders, why these fundamental political lessons seem to remain unlearned, and how the strategic mistakes of the past can be avoided in the future.
Topic:: Security, Democratization, Politics, Military Strategy, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iraq, and Vietnam

139. Nidaa Tounes Rift Exacerbates Government Crisis

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 12-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: Nidaa Tounes, a party born post-Tunisian revolution, is currently experiencing internal rifts, which in turn is having an impact on the country’s secular-Islamist ruling government’s ability to move forward. This rift became especially obvious after the party’s founder and leader, Beji Caid Essebsi, won the presidency and consequently resigned as party leader according to Tunisia’s constitutional law. This position paper examines key actors and roots of the party’s rift, how this rift has impacted state institutions and future scenarios for the governing coalition.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Terrorism, and Popular Revolt
Political Geography:: Tunisia

140. Turkish Government Crisis Makes Early Elections a Reality

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 08-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: Following the results of the recent parliamentary election in Turkey, efforts by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the centre-left Republican People’s Party (CHP) to form a coalition government failed. An alliance between the AKP and the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) seems unlikely because, among other reasons, the latter is connected to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). The right-wing Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) this week also rejected the idea of a coalition with the AKP. Turkey is thus set for early elections in October or November.
Topic:: International Relations, Democratization, and Elections
Political Geography:: Turkey

141. The Myth of Democratic Recession

Author:: Steven Levitsky and Lucan A. Way
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Democracy
Institution:: National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:: Contrary to widespread belief, there is no global “democratic recession.” Despite less favorable international conditions, levels of democracy in the world remained stable in the 2000s. Perceptions of democratic recession originate in excessive post–Cold War optimism, rooted in the successful democratizations of the 1980s. During the early 1990s, economic crisis, weakened states, and external pressure forced many autocrats to abandon power or tolerate opposition. These authoritarian crises were widely viewed as democratic transitions, even though most were not. Subsequent authoritarian (re)consolidation was thus perceived as democratic “backsliding.” Misplaced pessimism was reinforced by disappointment over non-democratization in China, the Middle East, and elsewhere, despite the fact that most remaining dictatorships existed amid highly unfavorable conditions for democratization.
Topic:: Democratization, Authoritarianism, Democracy, and Dictatorship
Political Geography:: Global Focus

142. The Authoritarian Resurgence: Autocratic Legalism in Venezuela

Author:: Javier Corrales
Publication Date:: 04-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Democracy
Institution:: National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:: This paper contributes to the literature on dynamics of hybrid regimes, i.e., whether these regimes stay stable, or instead, turn more democratic or more autocratic with time. Venezuela since the mid-2000s is an example of the latter. I first focus on how this happened in Venezuela. I posit that the turn toward greater authoritarianism occurred through autocratic legalism. This refers to the use, abuse, and disuse of the law to disempower veto players. I then focus on the “why” question. The main cause of Venezuela’s regime dynamics is a combination of external factors (increasing tolerance from abroad) and the ruling party’s declining electoral competitiveness at home and institutional path dependence.
Topic:: Democratization, Authoritarianism, Elections, and Democracy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

143. Democratisation in Africa: The role of self-enforcing constitutional rules

Author:: Sophia du Plessis, Ada Jansen, and Krige Siebrits
Publication Date:: 03-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Following several decades during which violent civil conflict was common in African countries, the period from 1990 onwards was marked by a spreading and deepening of adherence to democratic principles. Nonetheless, many African countries still experience political instability and civil unrest. This raises the question of why these countries have not succeeded in resolving conflict in a sustainable manner. Drawing on economic ideas about contracts and institutions, this paper outlines a conceptual framework for thinking about the role of constitutional rules in achieving political stability. It also elucidates a critical requirement for sustainable democratic systems, namely that constitutional rules must become self-sustaining to safeguard such systems and to avoid relapses into violent civil conflict. The experiences of selected African countries are presented as brief case studies that illustrate the relevance of the conceptual framework and the notion of self-enforcing constitutional rules.
Topic:: Civil War, Democratization, Constitution, and Political stability
Political Geography:: Kenya, Africa, Mozambique, Botswana, Central African Republic, and Côte d'Ivoire

144. The League of Arab States: Human Rights Standards and Mechanisms

Publication Date:: 11-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Open Society Foundations
Abstract:: With the Arab region in a state of flux, the League of Arab States seems poised to play a much-needed role on issues such as peace, security, and human rights in Arab countries. Until now, this role has been far from consistent or guided by a genuine human rights agenda. However, a closer look at the Arab League during the recent crises in the region reveals a slow shift in its positioning, highlighting the importance for civil society to engage with the Arab League and influence policies and reform in the region. Interest in the work of the Arab League is not new to civil society in the region. Civil society organizations have, for example, engaged very closely with the process of revising the Arab Charter on Human Rights. They have also worked with the League on the Darfur and Syria crises. However, this engagement has been fragmented, and at times not driven by a clear strategy. Therefore, this engagement and its impact can be strengthened through effective strategies and mechanisms. It is, therefore, paramount that the Arab League reform its relationship with civil society, and at the same time for civil society to improve its own relationship with the Arab League. The ultimate goal is better protection of human rights in Arab countries. This manual has been produced with these challenges and opportunities in mind. It aims at providing information to activists in the civil society movement, especially those working in the human rights field, on the structures, standards, and mechanisms of the Arab League relating to human rights. Better understanding of these issues can only contribute to better engagement with the Arab League, and therefore the ability to influence and reform the organization.
Topic:: Civil Society, Democratization, Human Rights, Authoritarianism, Reform, Arab Spring, State Violence, Revolution, and Arab League
Political Geography:: Middle East and North Africa

145. Europe Meets Asia: The Transnational Construction of Access and Voice from Below

Author:: Sabrina Zajak
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:: This paper contributes to the debate on the role of democratic participation in complex systems of governance. It takes a process-oriented constructivist approach asking how transnational activism over time contributes to the construction of access and voice from below and uses the Asia-Europe Meetings (ASEM) to analyze how interactions between civil society and global governance institutions shape concrete forms of participation. The paper shows that transnational activism triggers both discursive and institutional changes within the official ASEM process leading to an informal, fragmented, and fragile institutionalization of civil society participation. However, the paper reveals a division between civil society organizations with some, such as business representatives, having preferential access and voice in comparison to more contentious organizations. The paper explains this fragmented form of democratization as the result of three interrelated processes: the particular history and economic origins of the ASEM; international developments particularly in the ongoing economic crisis; and domestic developments within individual countries (in particular China) which have begun to favor controlled access for civil society participation.
Topic:: Civil Society, Democratization, Economics, History, Governance, and Developments
Political Geography:: Europe and Asia

146. From Juvenile System Reform to a Conflict of Civilizations in Contemporary Russian Society (De la réforme de la justice des mineurs au conflit de civilisations dans la société russe contemporaine)

Author:: Kathy Rousselet
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:: Youth delinquency has been a hot topic in Russian society for many years. Numerous associations, NGOs and international organizations have raised public awareness of the problem and have encouraged the government to place judicial reform on its agenda. However, debate over how to apply it, the various possible models and how to structure the relationship between social and judicial institutions has been limited. Discussion has instead focused on the relative priorities to be given to the interests of children versus those of the family, so-called “traditional” versus “liberal” values, and the extent to which the State should interfere in the private lives of Russian citizens. Discussion of the actual situation of children at risk and the concrete problems posed by reform have been overshadowed by rumors, encouraged by a discourse of fear in an increasingly violent society that tend to distort the real problems. Additionally, implementation of international norms and judicial reform has been largely blocked by the patriotic agenda of the State.
Topic:: Crime, Democratization, Human Rights, Sociology, Prisons/Penal Systems, Reform, Children, Youth, and Political Science
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

147. Assessment on Changes regarding the Specially Empowered Judicial System in Turkey

Author:: Hande Özhabeş
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: A number of amendments for criminal law have been instituted in Turkey in recent years within the framework of the judicial reform process that especially were geared towards the realization of the fair trial principle. Between 2011 and 2013, four groups of legal amendments named “Judicial Reform Packages” were passed. These brought about important improvements regarding fair trial, freedom of speech, personal liberty and security. The TESEV Democratization Program published a report evaluating the effect of these four judicial reform packages on rights and freedoms in September 2013. This brief report provides an evaluation of the amendment package instituted in March 2014 that included important changes vis-a-vis the specially empowered judicial system.
Topic:: Democratization, Law, Reform, Criminal Justice, and Justice
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

148. Crisis and Opportunity in South Sudan

Author:: Princeton N. Lyman, Jon Temin, and Susan Stigant
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Ongoing negotiations to end the South Sudan crisis cannot simply return the country to the previous status quo. For lasting peace, the negotiating parties and mediators will need to reach beyond national political elites and those bearing arms and invite active involvement of the international community. South Sudan needs to build national cohesion and address fundamental issues of governance, democracy, and human rights. Restarting the stalled constitution-making process presents an opportunity to achieve these objectives. Following negotiations, a broad-based, inclusive, interim government that includes a degree of joint South Sudanese-international community administration and management should govern and ensure preparations for new elections.
Topic:: Democratization, Development, Poverty, Power Politics, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:: Africa and Sudan

149. Youth Mobilization and Political Constraints in Afghanistan

Author:: Noah Coburn and Anna Larson
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: As Afghanistan prepares for presidential elections in 2014, many young people are vocal about how the system appears to limit their meaningful participation in politics. Historically, young people in Afghanistan have challenged the status quo. However, it is possible to detect a declining trend from the early twentieth century to the present in the extent to which these challenges have been able to effect change in the political system. This trend has continued despite the technology and social media available to youth today, as the older generation of political leaders continues to monopolize the available political space and act as gatekeepers to that space.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Development, Youth Culture, and Reform
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Central Asia

150. Egypt's Post-Mubarak Predicament

Author:: Ashraf El-Sherif
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Three years after the uprising that ousted Hosni Mubarak from power, Egypt continues to grapple with an authoritarian state. Throughout the rise and fall of the Muslim Brotherhood, authoritarian forces remained the key political players. Democratic alternatives have not capitalized on cracks in the system. Prospects for the Brotherhood's political reintegration and a democratization of political Islam are bleak. As long as credible alternatives fail to gain traction, the old state will persist and Egypt's central challenges will remain unresolved.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Political Economy, Regime Change, and Governance
Political Geography:: North Africa and Egypt

151. The Road to 2014: Corruption, the Media and Parties' Electability

Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Corruption has become a perennial issue that has shackled political parties to a groundswell of unpopularity in Indonesia. In the run up towards the 2014 General Elections, it is envisaged that such an issue may jeopardise the electability of certain political parties. This report explores the influence of corruption cases on the elections by first highlighting the current status of competing political parties in the 2014 elections. The report then looks at the notable corruption cases that have an adverse effect on the political parties. The report concludes with four points. First, how utilising the "corruption-card" has become the new weapon of choice among political parties. Second, how the acute problem of corruption signifies that Indonesia's democratic consolidation process is far from over. Third, how shadowy affairs between political parties, their elites and the media can and should be constantly monitored. Lastly, the need to strengthen and continuous evaluation of the Corruption Eradication Committee (KPK) to prevent unnecessary interventions by political parties in the future.
Topic:: Corruption, Democratization, Development, Political Economy, and Governance
Political Geography:: Indonesia and Asia

152. Compounding Uncertainty in Afghanistan: Economic Consequences of Delay in Signing the Bilateral Security Agreement

Author:: Casey Garret Johnson, William A. Byrd, and Sanaullah Tasal
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The still unsigned Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) between Afghanistan and the United States provides the legal basis for continuing U.S. military presence in Afghanistan. In addition to its substantive importance, the BSA is also a confidence-building mechanism. The delay in putting it in place is compounding uncertainty and further diminishing economic confidence during Afghanistan's already challenging and uncertain transition. Afghans' responses include, among others, hedging behavior (legal and illegal), personal decisions on whether to come back to or stay in Afghanistan, delays in investments, incipient job losses, declining demand for goods and services and real estate prices, and farmers planting more opium poppy.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Democratization, Development, Treaties and Agreements, Insurgency, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, and Asia

153. The Taliban's View of the 2014 Elections

Author:: Michael Semple
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The Afghan Taliban Movement has publicly rejected the legitimacy of the April 2014 elections. The Taliban's military leadership has issued instructions to officials and commanders to disrupt the elections but has left field commanders with wide discretion on how to go about doing so. Many in the Taliban follow the electoral contest closely and comment on developments in terms very similar to how they are described by the political and educated class in Kabul. However, the anti-election sentiment in the Taliban leaves no scope for any faction to cooperate with the process. The Taliban will likely be able to intensify violence approaching the election, but not sufficiently to derail the overall process.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Development, Islam, Armed Struggle, Counterinsurgency, and Governance
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Asia

154. Process Lessons Learned in Yemen's National Dialogue

Author:: Erica Gaston
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: On January 25, Yemen's National Dialogue Conference (NDC) closed after more than ten months of deliberation. The flagship process within Yemen's post-Arab Spring transition, the NDC has been lauded as a positive model of inclusive and constructive negotiation. In Tunisia, Libya, Bahrain, and Sudan, similar national dialogue processes have been mooted or are under way. The NDC made significant progress on a daunting range of governance, structural, and social contract issues. It broke through political and social barriers to engage a broader scope of political parties, actors, and civil society–a precedent that will be difficult to roll back. Despite these achievements, the NDC missed its concluding deadline because of a deadlock over the fundamental dilemma: the future status for southern Yemen and the structure of the Yemeni state. A partial solution was brokered, but only by extending the transition process and leaving tough issues to be resolved later. Meanwhile, other challenges, from unemployment to serious humanitarian shortfalls to rampant insecurity, also remain unresolved. The public has grown increasingly skeptical that either the NDC or the transition process will result in a government that responds to their needs. The verdict is out on the ultimate legacy of the NDC. Even at this early stage, however, the hurdles the NDC has faced may provide lessons for other countries considering such processes. At a minimum, exploring how certain process elements may have contributed to achieving the NDC's goals or not might suggest further areas for research, reflection, or continued engagement in the next stages of transition. Other countries considering a national dialogue should streamline the agenda to the extent possible, weighing carefully which political issues do or do not lend themselves to a large-scale public forum, and ensure an appropriate balance between the national dialogue and other transitional processes.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Islam, Insurgency, Governance, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:: Yemen and Arabia

155. The Democratic Party Convention and Yudhoyono's Possible Game Plan

Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The Democratic Party (PD) – the incumbent party that won a majority sweep in the 2009 general elections, conferring Yudhoyono his second presidency – is now experiencing a dramatic reversal of fortunes. The party's electability rate has dipped significantly from its heyday peak of 21 per cent in 2009 to a meagre 7 per cent in 2013. A convention based on democratic proceedings ha s been hatched as part of a last - ditched effort by PD with the express purpose of generating the requisite publicity before legislative elections commence in order to restore confidence among its voters. While the convention has been proceeding apace, its impact on the electorate and on the image of the party as a whole has been disappointing. This report analyses the reasons why PD's novel attempt at a democratic convention failed to rejuvenate the party like its predecessor the Golkar party did a decade a go. Included in the analysis are scenario analyses of the various outcomes of the convention, given the plausible choices that party Chairman Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono may take in consideration of the current dire status of PD.
Topic:: Democratization, Development, Islam, Political Economy, and Governance
Political Geography:: Asia

156. From Transformation to Mediation: The Arab Spring Reframed

Author:: Richard Youngs
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Politics in the Middle East are increasingly polarized and fragmented. The Arab Spring's citizen-led spirit of reform is still alive, but societies are increasingly torn apart by bitter tensions between Sunni and Shia, secular liberals and Islamists, and governments and civil society. As polarization has deepened, the concern with engaging in dialogue to bridge differences has intensified. The relationship between these mediation efforts and support for systemic reform will be a pivotal factor in the Middle East's future political trajectory.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Democratization, Islam, Regime Change, Governance, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, and Arabia

157. Time to Reset the European Neighborhood Policy

Author:: Stefan Lehne
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Through its European Neighborhood Policy (ENP), the European Union (EU) aims to support the structural transformation of its Eastern and Southern neighbors, promoting democracy, the rule of law, and successful market economies. Ten years after the ENP's launch, it is clear that the policy is not working. Adjusting the ENP to the changing reality on the ground, sharpening its tools, and rebuilding its credibility should be a top priority for the EU's foreign policy leadership.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Democratization, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:: Europe

158. Toward the Next Phase of Open Government

Author:: Panthea Lee
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Aspen Institute
Abstract:: "Open government" is everywhere. Search the term and you'll find OpenGovernment.org, OpenTheGovernment.org, Open Government Initiative, Open Gov Hub and the Open Gov Foundation; you'll find open government initiatives for New York City, Boston, Kansas, Virginia, Tennessee and the list goes on; you'll find dedicated open government plans for the White House, State Department, USAID, Treasury, Justice Department, Commerce, Energy and just about every other major federal agency. Even the departments of Defense and Homeland Security are in on open government.
Topic:: Civil Society, Democratization, Politics, Political Theory, and Governance
Political Geography:: New York

159. Promoting Inclusive Growth in Arab Countries: Rural and Regional Development and Inequality in Tunisia

Author:: Mongi Boughzala and Mohamed Tlili Hamdi
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: Regional disparities and inequality between the rural and the urban areas in Tunisia have been persistently large and perceived as a big injustice. The main regions that did not receive an equitable share from the country's economic growth, as compared to the coastal regions that are highly urbanized, are the predominantly rural western regions. Their youth often have to migrate to the cities to look for work and most of them end up with low-paying and frustrating jobs in the informal sector. The more educated among them face a very uncertain outlook and the highest rate of unemployment. This bias is strongest for female workers and university graduates living in the poor rural regions. The purpose of this paper is to study the underlying causes and factors of these disparities and to discuss policies and measures that may allow these regions to benefit from faster and more inclusive growth.
Topic:: Democratization, Development, Poverty, and Social Stratification
Political Geography:: Africa, Arabia, and Tunisia

160. Jordan: The Geopolitical Service Provider

Author:: Emmanuel Comolet
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: Jordan is in the eye of the Arab cyclone. It remains stable while surrounded by chaotic political situations in Syria, Iraq, Palestine and the Sinai Peninsula. Jordan has not experienced the massive demonstrations aimed at regime change that have been seen elsewhere in the region, and its relative stability has enabled it to cash in on the geo-political services it provides. These services include: hosting refugees from Palestine, Iraq or Syria; remaining a reliable ally for many international powers; featuring a strong army that plays a stabilizing role in the region; serving as an intermediary when neighboring countries need a host or a dealmaker; and providing qualified Jordanian workers to fill open vacancies for companies and countries, especially in the Gulf. The current stability in Jordan matches well its historic capacity to resist and adapt to shocks. However, the contemporary situation of the labor market reveals that the weaknesses observed in the countries having experienced revolutions (e.g., Tunisia and Egypt) are also present in Jordan; labor market participation is low with very few women active, and the unemployment rate of educated young people is worrisome. Both the number of Jordanians working abroad and the number of migrant workers in Jordan show the discrepancy between demand and supply of labor in Jordan. This could become problematic, since the economic situation has been worsening, notably with fewer public jobs available. Hence there is a need for international donors to keep supporting Jordan in a difficult regional environment, for the government of Jordan to wittily manage the balance between Transjordanians and West Bankers in the near future and for new workers to alter their expectations in searching for opportunities outside the public sector.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Democratization, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Iraq, America, Middle East, Arabia, Syria, and Tunisia

161. Egypt's Difficult Transition: Why the International Community Must Stay Economically Engaged

Author:: Hafez Ghanem
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: This paper presents a political-economy analysis of the Egyptian transition experience from the fall of President Hosni Mubarak in February 2011 until the end of 2013, and considers options for the future. Establishing a stable democracy in a country with weak institutions and no democratic culture will take years or even decades. With the benefit of hindsight, most observers were too optimistic in 2011 when they predicted that the “Arab Spring” would quickly lead to democracy. They are probably too pessimistic today when they declare the failure of Egypt's democratic transition. The millions of Egyptians who swarmed into Tahrir Square in January 2011 demanding that Mubarak step down, and then again in June 2013 asking for the overthrow of President Mohammed Morsi, have learned how to use “people power.” A wall of fear has been broken, and it would be difficult for another autocratic regime to succeed in ruling Egypt for an extended period of time.
Topic:: Democratization, Development, Islam, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: Arabia, North Africa, and Egypt

162. Close the Gap: How to eliminate violence against women beyond 2015

Author:: Daniela Rosche
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: At least one in three women worldwide will experience some form of violence during their lifetime, often perpetrated by an intimate partner. Violence against women and girls is a fundamental human rights issue and a central challenge to development, democracy and peace.
Topic:: Political Violence, Civil Society, Democratization, Development, Gender Issues, and Human Rights

163. Afghanistan at a Crossroads: Recommendations for the UN Security Council on the 2014 UNAMA mandate

Author:: Steph Cousins and Liz Cameron
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: As Afghanistan prepares for Presidential elections and the withdrawal of international forces, insecurity is continuing to spread across the country with a devastating impact on civilians. UNAMA's role in advancing human rights, supporting humanitarian access and promoting peace and reconciliation efforts – particularly as they relate to the women, peace and security agenda in Afghanistan – must be strengthened in order to ensure the significant gains that have been made in the last decade are not lost.
Topic:: Civil Society, Democratization, Development, Government, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Afghanistan

164. Riding the Wave of Reform: Fast-tracking Myanmar's future with good quality aid

Author:: Jasmine Burnley and Javier Pereira
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: In 2011, following decades of isolation, Myanmar embarked on an unprecedented reform process, raising hopes for a new democracy. These reforms have been welcomed by the international community with rising levels of aid. If properly handled and spent, aid offers an opportunity to harness Myanmar's economic potential and make it work for poor people – reducing inequality, providing essential services, building resilience, and promoting sustainable investment. This paper explores what good-quality aid should look like for Myanmar, what it could deliver for those living in poverty, and what decision makers can learn from other countries, to ensure that aid is a catalyst for democratic reform, equitable growth, and peace.
Topic:: Democratization, Economics, Poverty, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:: Southeast Asia and Myanmar

165. Working for the Few: Political capture and economic inequality

Author:: Ricardo Fuentes-Nieva and Nicholas Galasso
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: In November 2013, the World Economic Forum released its 'Outlook on the Global Agenda 2014', in which it ranked widening income d is parities as the second greatest worldwide risk in the coming 12 to 18 months. Based on those surveyed, inequality is 'impacting social stability within countries and threatening security on a global scale.' Oxfam shares its analysis, and wants to see the 2014 World Economic Forum make the commitments needed to counter the growing tide of inequality.
Topic:: Security, Democratization, Economics, Political Economy, Poverty, and Social Stratification

166. Vote-Buying and Asymmetric Information

Author:: Rodrigo Zarazaga
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: Previous works on vote-buying have highlighted that an informational advantage allows party machines to efficiently distribute discretionary transfers to voters. However, the microfoundations that allow party machines to electorally exploit their informational advantage have not yet been elucidated. The probabilistic model in this paper provides the microfounded mechanism that explains how party machines translate their informational advantage into more efficient allocation of discretionary transfers and win elections with higher probabilities than their contenders. Furthermore, its probabilistic design allows the model to account for why party machines target their own supporters with discretionary transfers. In-depth interviews with 120 brokers from Argentina motivate the model.
Topic:: Corruption, Democratization, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:: Argentina

167. Women's Representation and Legislative Committee Appointments: The Case of the Argentine Provinces

Author:: Tiffany Barnes
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: Over the last two decades a large number of countries worldwide have adopted a gender quota to increase women's political representation in the legislature. While quotas are designed to achieve equality in legislative power and decision-making, it is unclear if electing more women to legislative office is sufficient to accomplish institutional incorporation. Once women are elected to office, are they being incorporated into the legislative body and gaining their own political power, or are they being marginalized? Using an original data set that tracks committee appointments in the twenty-two Argentine legislative chambers over an eighteen-year period, I evaluate the extent to which women have access to powerful committee appointments—beyond traditional women's domains committees—and how women's access to committee appointments changes over time. I hypothesize that while women may initially be sidelined, as they gain more experience in the legislature they may overcome institutional barriers and develop institutional knowledge that will better equip them to work within the system to gain access to valuable committee appointments.
Topic:: Democratization, Development, Gender Issues, and Politics
Political Geography:: Argentina and Latin America

168. Why Afghanistan's Provincial Council Elections Matter

Author:: Noah Coburn and Anna Larson
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Afghanistan's Provincial Councils (PCs) represent one of the best hopes for the future of local democracy in Afghanistan. Yet since their shaky formation in 2005, they continue to be overlooked by international actors preferring to interact with parliamentarians, ministers and appointed governors. The significance assigned by Afghans to winning PC seats has steadily increased over the last decade. Indeed, for many, the April 5 PC elections will do more than the presidential poll to determine whether democratic practices continue to take root in local politics. PC elections offer a chance to build local, personal ties and accountability mechanisms connecting to increasingly centralized government resources, and, in particular, an opportunity for a new generation of young, motivated Afghans to begin their political careers. As the locally-visible manifestation of the Afghan political system, PCs are the immediate face of democracy—or a lack thereof—for many Afghans. In 2009, with most news stories covering the widespread fraud in the presidential contest, the uproar over the fraud and delay throughout the PC polling process rarely received coverage on newspaper front pages. Yet those problems contributed significantly to people's sense of alienation and disillusionment with their country's political actors and electoral institutions. In spite of these experiences, Afghans are once again preparing to go to the polls. Voters, candidates, parties and local organizations are putting greater emphasis than ever on the process of provincial council polling—expressing concern about the prospects for fraud, mobilizing around their candidates and campaigning in earnest. If due attention to the process is not paid by the Independent Election Commission (IEC) and by international agencies, popular participation in future elections could drop. Prospects for Afghan democratization will depend much on how these and future provincial-level elections are conducted.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Demographics, Development, Islam, Politics, and Youth Culture
Political Geography:: Afghanistan

169. Last Chance: The International Community and the 2014 Afghan Elections

Author:: Scott S. Smith
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Afghanistan's democratic development has taken place within the tight embrace of international support and the conception of "free and fair" elections that comes with it, but Afghan and inter-national views on what to expect from elections have diverged in the past, leading to a deepening of distrust between the Karzai-led Afghan government and the international community. The run-up to the 2014 presidential elections has been shaped by this distrust. Nonetheless, with the breakdown of the reconciliation effort with the Taliban and uncertainty about the result of the transition process due to President Hamid Karzai's unexpected refusal to sign the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA), the April 5 election is the only remaining opportunity for a political resolution of the continuing crisis in Afghanistan. A more complete understanding of the 2009 elections—how they were and were not a disaster—can help to narrow the gap between Afghan and international expectations; and an understanding of some of the changes that have occurred in Afghan society since 2009 can offer reason for optimism that the election will at the least create space for political elites to address the root causes of the crisis.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Corruption, Democratization, Political Economy, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Afghanistan

170. PakVotes: A Social Media Experiment in Elections Monitoring

Author:: Nadia Naviwala
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: PakVotes, a pilot project supported by the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP), used social media platforms and a network of reporters located in areas outside of major cities in Pakistan to track violence during the 2013 elections. The project offers lessons that could guide future efforts to use social media to record and publicize conflicts and the use of violence during elections and other major events. The hashtag #PakVotes trended for several days around elections, serving as a popular alternative news source to the mainstream media, which was not as diverse in its geographic coverage, sources or story types.
Topic:: Political Violence, Democratization, Non-Governmental Organization, Science and Technology, and Mass Media
Political Geography:: Pakistan, United States, and South Asia

171. A crisis of democratic legitimacy? It's about legitimation, stupid!

Author:: Alexander Mattelaer and Eline Severs
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Are we witnessing a crisis of democratic legitimacy? While citizens may lose trust in political authorities, democratic principles and ideals continue to exercise considerable appeal. This Policy Brief argues that this paradox must be understood as a crisis of legitimation. Research suggests that legitimacy is inherently subjective and must be constantly re-earned. Low levels of political trust can be explained as the result of the complexity of globalised yet fragmented societies. The present feeling of malaise calls for a redefinition of the relationship between citizens and the authorities by which they are ruled. If popular sovereignty is to mean anything in today's age, it requires a new legitimising narrative.
Topic:: Democratization, Sovereignty, Political Theory, and Governance

172. New Technologies for Constitution Making

Author:: Jason Gluck and Brendan Ballou
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Public participation has become an integral part of constitution making, particularly since the end of the Cold War. It has strengthened national unity, built trust between governments and citizens, promoted reconciliation, and helped produce national con sensus. Constitution drafters in the past were mostly limited to using official statements and press releases, workshops, meetings, radio and television programs, and printed materials to engage with citizens. These methods were often costly and time-consuming, and failed to reach significant segments of the public. New technologies can increase participation in and the perceived legitimacy of constitutional processes. Constitution drafters have recently begun using the web and mobile phones to educate citizens on the constitution-writing process and engage them on issues of concern. Increasingly constitution writers are also using the web to consult international experts on specific technical issues. Given the rapid growth of the Internet and mobile phone penetration in the developing world, the increased use of new technologies in constitution writing is nearly inevitable. People and organizations considering using these tools should bear four things in mind. New technologies will affect different groups differently. The people who use these tools should respect social and cultural norms. They should keep control of the process in the hands of national actors. Last, they should fit their work within the larger context of the conflict or postconflict environment in which they work. Constitution making is a difficult field, however, and new technologies are tools, not panaceas.
Topic:: Civil Society, Democratization, Science and Technology, Political Theory, and Governance
Political Geography:: South Africa

173. Afghanistan Reconnected: Regional Economic Security Beyond 2014

Author:: Sarah Stern and Anna Mitri
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EastWest Institute
Abstract:: With the end of the ISAF mandate, Afghanistan will enter the "de-cade of transformation" in late 2014, and assume security for and within the country. The challenges with regard to security and governance are obvious; they attract much political and public attention.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Development, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Asia

174. Linking Domestic and European Politics: Finnish MEPs and the Votes that Shaped the 7th European Parliament

Author:: Tuomas Iso-Markku
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: It has long been acknowledged that the members of the European Parliament (MEPs) act in a complex political setting. They represent national parties and are elected nationally, and their campaigns are often built around domestic issues. However, in the European Parliament (EP), the MEPs mostly work within transnational party groups, which form the main channel through which they can influence European decision-making. Although most national parties have affiliated themselves to party groups with similar ideological leanings, the views of the MEPs' national parties and their European party groups do not always overlap. In such situations, the MEPs are forced to choose between their different 'principals'. This raises several questions: Who do the MEPs ultimately represent? To what degree do domestic political factors and national concerns condition their behaviour in the EP? And to what extent do the political cleavages in the EP reflect the conflict lines in national politics?
Topic:: Democratization and Politics
Political Geography:: Europe and Finland

175. A Democratic Rentier State? Taxation, Aid Dependency, and Political Representation in Benin

Author:: Giulia Piccolino
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:: Drawing on the history of statebuilding in Western Europe, fiscal sociology has proposed the existence of a mutually reinforcing effect between the emergence of representative government and effective taxation. This paper looks at the case of Benin, a low-income West African country that underwent a fairly successful democratization process in the early 1990s. It finds, in contrast to previous studies that have emphasized dependency on aid rents, that Benin appears to have reinforced its extractive capacities since democratization. However, the effect of democratization has been largely indirect, while other factors, such as the influence of the International Financial Institutions (IFIs) and the size of the country's informal sector, have played a more direct role in encouraging or inhibiting tax extraction. Nevertheless, the hypothesis that effective taxation depends on a quasiconsensual relationship between government and taxpayers finds some confirmation in the Beninese case.
Topic:: Democratization, Politics, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:: Europe and West Africa

176. Governance Transfer by the Southern African Development Community (SADC)

Author:: Anna van der Vleuten and Merran Hulse
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Collaborative Research Center (SFB) 700
Abstract:: As early as 1992, the Treaty of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) already included a commitment to human rights, democracy, and the rule of law as governance standards in its member states, but it was in 2001 that SADC significantly broadened its efforts at governance transfer. SADC focuses in particular on standards related to gender, (socioeconomic) human rights, and (electoral) democracy, which are promoted and protected through various instruments including military interventions and sanctions in the framework of security cooperation. While the rule of law and good governance have also gained a more prominent place on the agenda since 2001, standards and instruments are less developed. Overall, there is a significant gap between the prescription of standards and policies on the one hand and the implementation of measures on the other. The suspension of the SADC Tribunal in 2010 following its rulings on human rights issues clearly shows the limits of SADC as an active promoter vis-à-visits member states.
Topic:: Democratization, Gender Issues, Human Rights, and Governance
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

177. TSG IntelBrief: The Umbrella Revolution: Students Protest in Hong Kong

Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: The student-led, pro-democracy 'Umbrella Revolution' currently underway in Hong Kong is the most significant uprising within the sphere of the People's Republic of China since the Tiananmen Square demonstrations in 1989 Angered by Beijing's restrictions to candidate choices for the upcoming 2017 election, Hong Kong's citizens are massing by the thousands to protest As the pro-democracy protests grow, the government's reaction threatens to becomes more aggressive, possibly bringing the situation to a tipping point reminiscent of Tiananmen Square The Chinese government believes it can't afford to back down-with a wariness influenced by events in Ukraine and the 'Arab Spring'-but it also can't afford another massacre; the world is watching and plays a much larger role in the Chinese economy than it did in 1989.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Democratization, Human Rights, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: East Asia and Hong Kong

178. Mediating Transition in Yemen: Achievements and Lessons

Author:: Steven A. Zyck
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: Yemen remains the only site of an Arab Spring uprising that has ended in a negotiated agreement and a structured, internationally supported transition process. As Jamal Benomar, the United Nations Special Adviser to the Secretary-General on Yemen, stated, “Yemen was definitely heading towards a Syria-type scenario” before international actors, including the United Nations (UN), helped to shepherd a complex transition process, which continues at the time of writing. Benomar, with support from a wide array of stakeholders, helped avert an escalating conflict in Yemen by stepping in to offer the good offices of the UN secretarygeneral without waiting for the UN Security Council or the embattled Yemeni regime to demand UN action. Benomar's interventions— including bringing Yemen's major political parties together amid the uprising—helped ensure that the country did not devolve into civil war when President Ali Abdullah Saleh stepped down after thirty-three years in power. That is, the UN opened a space for dialogue where none had previously been considered possible.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Treaties and Agreements, and Popular Revolt
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

179. Afghanistan's Political Transition

Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Ashraf Ghani was inaugurated as president of Afghanistan on 29 September, under difficult circumstances. He inherited a government that is running out of money and losing ground to a rising insurgency. His ability to confront those problems and other challenges as foreign troops withdraw will be shaped by the aftermath of the political contest that brought him to power. Forming a national unity government with his election rival Abdullah Abdullah presents opportunities to stabilise the transition, preventing further erosion of state cohesiveness. Yet, it also poses risks, particularly of factionalism within Kabul, which could undermine urgently needed reforms. Given the international role in developing the agreements that have created this new partnership, and the absence of mechanisms to resolve internal differences, the international community should serve as a guarantor of Kabul's new political order and, if necessary, mediate any serious disputes that arise.
Topic:: Corruption, Democratization, Islam, and Governance
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Central Asia

180. After the Spring: Reforming Arab Armies

Author:: Florence Gaub
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: The Arab Spring had a military dimension in both its targets—regimes with a military background—and its outcomes. Where the armed forces in their entirety or partially sided with the protesters regime change succeeded; where they did not, it failed.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, and Development
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arabia

181. Revival of Political Islam in the Aftermath of Arab Uprisings: Implications for the Region and Beyond

Author:: Mohammed El-Katiri
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: As part of the radical political changes that have affected a number of Arab countries over the past 4 years, the toppling of regimes and the organization of the first fair and free elections in several Arab states have allowed Islamist parties to rise to power. This highly visible political trend has caused mixed reactions, both within these countries and internationally. Prior to the Arab Spring, most countries in the region banned Islamist movements from forming political parties. For decades, members of such movements were jailed, tortured, and exiled from their home countries. Even in those states where Islamist political parties were allowed, they had limited freedom and were under the scrutiny of the regimes, as was, for example, the Moroccan Justice and Development Party.
Topic:: Security, Political Violence, Democratization, Islam, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa

182. The EU's Democracy Promotion and the Mediterranean Neighbors Orientation, Ownership and Dialogue in Jordan and Turkey, Ann-Kristin Jonasson

Author:: Suna Gülfer Ihlamur-öner
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Insight Turkey
Institution:: SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:: The EU has been involved in democracy promotion in the Mediterranean for many years. However, it is facing criticism from its members and partners for prioritizing security and stability over democracy. Particularly following the Arab uprisings, the effectiveness of the EU's efforts have increasingly been called into question and demands for a new approach towards democratization in the Mediterranean are growing. Ann-Kristin Jonasson's book, The EU's Democracy Promotion and the Mediterranean Neighbors: Orientation, Ownership and Dialogue in Jordan and Turkey, systematically evaluates the EU's democratization efforts by focusing on democracy promotion in two Mediterranean countries, Jordan and Turkey, and effectively addresses the major pitfalls in the EU's strategy. Therefore, it is a timely contribution as the Arab revolutions have forced us to reconsider the prospects for democratization in the region.
Topic:: Security, Democratization, and Human Rights
Political Geography:: Turkey, Arabia, and Jordan

183. Democratization and Instability in Ukraine, Georgia, and Belarus

Author:: Robert Nalbandov
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: This monograph analyzes the interconnections between the democratic institutionalization of the newly independent states of Ukraine, Georgia, and Belarus, their political (in)stability, and economic development and prosperity. By introducing the concept of regime mimicry into the field of public administration, this monograph extends the epistemological frameworks of the democratization school to the phenomenon of political culture. Successes and failures of the democratic institutionalization processes in these countries largely depend on the ways their institutional actors reacted to internal and external disturbances of their domestic political, econmic, and cultural environments. While Georgia's political culture revealed the highest degree of flexibility in accepting the externally-proposed institutional frameworks and practices, the bifurcate political culture in Ukraine impeded its democratic institutionalization, while the rigid political culture in Belarus completely stalled the process of institutional transformations.
Topic:: Democratization, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:: Ukraine, Asia, Georgia, and Belarus

184. The Muslim Brotherhood and the Future of Political Islam in Egypt

Author:: Ashraf El-Sherif
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The current turmoil in Egypt—including social strife, polarization, and violence—has cast shadows on the potential for Islamist integration as well as the regime's ability to achieve political stability. Shifting external and internal dynamics of Islamist organizations indicate five possible scenarios for the future of the Muslim Brotherhood. Its path will have far-reaching implications for political Islam and democratization in Egypt.
Topic:: Political Violence, Democratization, and Islam
Political Geography:: Arabia, North Africa, and Egypt

185. Qatar and the Arab Spring: Policy Drivers and Regional Implications

Author:: Kristian Coates Ulrichsen
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: During the Arab Spring, Qatar moved away from its traditional foreign policy role as diplomatic mediator to embrace change in the Middle East and North Africa and support transitioning states. Regional actors viewed Qatar's approach as overreaching, and skepticism of Doha's policy motivations increased. Qatar's new leadership, which came to power in June 2013, is adapting by reverting to a more pragmatic foreign policy and addressing the fallout from its support for Islamist movements in the region.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and Qatar

186. Dilemmas of Campaigning and Governing in the United States: A Conversation with Governor Lincoln D. Chafee

Author:: Lincoln Chafee
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Columbia University World Leaders Forum
Abstract:: This World Leaders Forum program titled, Dilemmas of Campaigning and Governing in the United States: A Conversation with Governor Lincoln D. Chafee, will feature a discussion with Lincoln D. Chafee, Governor of Rhode Island and the following participants: Introduction:David Johnston, Professor of Political Science, Columbia University in the City of New York Interlocutor:Ester Fuchs, Professor of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University in the City of New York.
Topic:: Democratization, Politics, and Governance
Political Geography:: United States and New York

187. A Coup Ordained? Thailand's Prospects for Stability

Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: On 22 May, for the twelfth time in Thailand's history, the army seized power after months of political turbulence. This is not simply more of the same. The past decade has seen an intensifying cycle of election, protest and government downfall, whether at the hands of the courts or military, revealing deepening societal cleavages and elite rivalries, highlighting competing notions of legitimate authority. A looming royal succession, prohibited by law from being openly discussed, adds to the urgency. A failure to fix this dysfunction risks greater turmoil. The military's apparent prescription – gelding elected leaders in favour of unelected institutions – is more likely to bring conflict than cohesion, given a recent history of a newly empowered electorate. For the army, buyer's remorse is not an option, nor is open-ended autocracy; rather its legacy, and Thailand's stability, depend on its success in forging a path – thus far elusive – both respectful of majoritarian politics and in which all Thais can see their concerns acknowledged.
Topic:: Political Violence, Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, Governance, and Authoritarianism
Political Geography:: Asia and Thailand

188. Elections en Tunisie: vieilles blessures, nouvelles craintes

Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Le duel qui oppose le président sortant Moncef Marzouki à l'ancien chef de gouvernement Béji Caïd Essebsi dans le cadre du second tour de la présidentielle, prévu le 21 décembre 2014, révèle les lignes de fracture de la société tunisienne que les élites politiques croyaient avoir résorbées grâce à leur sens du consensus et du compromis. La cartographie électorale des législatives et du premier tour montre une Tunisie divisée entre un Nord en grande partie pro-Essebsi et son parti Nida Tounes, et un Sud majoritairement pro-Marzouki et favorable au parti islamiste An-Nahda. Afin d'éviter que les craintes réciproques finissent par conduire à des violences, le vainqueur de ce premier scrutin présidentiel libre et concurrentiel devra d'abord reconnaitre les inquiétudes de l'électorat du vaincu. Pouvoir exécutif et législatif devront s'engager de concert à traiter la question du déséquilibre régional et prévenir les risques de blocage institutionnel ou de répression des oppositions.
Topic:: Democratization
Political Geography:: Arabia

189. Behind Closed Doors: The risk of denying women a voice in determining Afghanistan's future

Author:: Elizabeth Cameron and Jorrit Kamminga
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: As the Taliban regime fell in 2001 after six years of abuse and oppression, the international community made a promise to the women of Afghanistan, that it would never again abandon them. The protection of their rights, at least in part, became a key element to afterwards legitimize the war which followed. It is 13 years since Colin Powell, then- US Secretary of State, declared that, 'the rights of the women in Afghanistan will not be negotiable.' Now Afghan women are questioning what the future holds.
Topic:: Democratization, Gender Issues, Human Rights, and Self Determination
Political Geography:: Afghanistan

190. Democratic Aspirations and Destabilizing Outcomes in Afghanistan

Author:: Norah Niland
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:: The United States and its allies, in control of Afghanistan since October 2001, failed to support the development of an inclusive, legitimate and accountable political system. This paper examines how the imposition of an inappropriate model of democracy, the prioritization of American interests over those of Afghans, and a pattern of expedient political decisions have contributed to the destabilization of the country. The democracy and state-building model imposed on Afghanistan was stymied from the outset by critical foundational flaws. These include the return to power of discredited warlords reviled by most Afghans, the marginalization of particular groups including the remnants of the Taliban movement, and the concentration of power in an executive Presidency at the expense of a weak parliamentary structure. In 2014, along with the drawdown of US and NATO troops, Afghanistan's disputed election saga ended in a no-victor deal that effectively discarded the (as yet unknown) results of the ballot box. Once again, Washington politics reinforced the grip of a warlord-dominated elite on the machinery of the state and exposed the hollowness of the US-led and UN-supported state building project.
Topic:: Political Violence, Corruption, Democratization, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and United States

191. Closing Space: Democracy and Human Rights Support Under Fire

Author:: Thomas Carothers and Saskia Brechenmacher
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: AFTER SEEING ITS REACH INCREASE FOR DECADES, international support for democracy and human rights faces a serious challenge: more and more governments are erecting legal and logistical barriers to democracy and rights programs, publicly vilifying international aid groups and their local partners, and harassing such groups or expelling them altogether. Despite the significant implications of the pushback, the roots and full scope of the phenomenon remain poorly understood and responses to it are often weak.
Topic:: Civil Society, Democratization, Diplomacy, Human Rights, and Human Welfare

192. Subnational Electoral Contexts and Corruption in Mexico

Author:: Brian M. Faughnan, Jonathan T. Hiskey, and Scott D. Revey
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Institution:: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:: Scholars of the world's most recent democratization processes have tended to focus on how national-level institutions have developed and how citizens have interpreted and responded to those developments. In this paper, we argue that the distinct subnational political environments that emerge from uneven national regime transitions are important determinants of how people view their political world. Specifically, we argue that citizens' experiences with and attitudes towards corruption are particularly influenced by the subnational political context in which those citizens live. We use survey data from across Mexico to test our theoretical expectations that a multi-party electoral context will heighten citizens' awareness of corruption as a governance issue, even as their chances of being victimized by corrupt behavior is reduced. Conversely, we posit that one-party electoral environments should facilitate a "business as usual" attitude toward corruption among government officials and citizens. As efforts to deepen democracy and improve governance continue across the developing world, our findings highlight the need to incorporate subnational political processes into efforts to under- stand and address such critical issues as corruption and its consequences.
Topic:: Corruption and Democratization
Political Geography:: Mexico

193. IFES 2013 Annual Report

Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Foundation for Electoral Systems
Abstract:: Two years ago our tagline was born, succinctly describing our vision and how we contribute to democratic development around the world: Global Expertise. Local Solutions. Sustainable Democracy.
Topic:: Democratization, Gender Issues, Political Activism, and Reform

194. Getting Democracy Promotion Right in Egypt

Author:: Amy Hawthorne
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Three years into Egypt's post-Mubarak transition, the near-term prospects for democratization are bleak. The military-security alliance that ousted the Muslim Brotherhood's Mohamed Morsi, Egypt's first freely elected president, in July 2013 is consolidating power. Government repression against the Islamist opposition, and more recently against secular dissenters, is harsher and society is more polarized than in any point in recent memory.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Democratization, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Middle East, North America, and Egypt

195. Negotiating Libya's Constitution

Author:: Duncan Pickard and Karim Mezran
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Among the many problems facing Libya's troubled transition to democracy is the challenge of constructing a state in a country with a legacy of weak institutions. Muammar al-Qaddafi's brutal forty-two-year dictatorship employed a policy of de-institutionalization, leaving the presence of the state feeble throughout the country. Those organs that were powerful, including the secret security apparatus, lost their leader with Qaddafi's fall in 2011, leaving a power vacuum that nonstate actors have scrambled to fill. Some of the most influential political groups in Libya today are militias formed during and after the revolution. Although some are loosely affiliated with the ministries of interior or defense, most, if not all, do not demonstrate any particular loyalty to the government. Militias have kidnapped the prime minister (the militia responsible called it an “arrest”), assassinated judges and police officers, physically occupied the office of the justice minister, and engaged in an urban battle in Tripoli. They also seek to advance their political interests—which vary, but include influence over officials, rent seeking, and some Islamist agendas—with threats against ministries or officials. And yet the state relies on militias to provide essential security services such as running checkpoints and protecting the airport because no ministry force is up to the task. The ascendancy of these militias points to two troubling realities: the state lacks a monopoly over the use of force and the country faces an ongoing deterioration of the rule of law.
Topic:: Security, Democratization, and Reform
Political Geography:: Libya and North Africa

196. No Arab Spring for Algeria

Author:: Karim Mezran and Mohsin Khan
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The popular uprisings that swept the Arab world in 2011 passed Algeria by. While there were sporadic street demonstrations calling for political change, principally in the country's capital Algiers, they quickly petered out due to lack of support from the general public. Unlike in Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia, the political power system in Algeria remained intact. The autocratic government of Abdelaziz Bouteflika, who has been the president since 1999, retained complete control, culminating in his reelection on April 17 for a fourth term despite his obviously failing health.
Topic:: Democratization, Governance, Social Movement, Popular Revolt, and Reform
Political Geography:: Middle East, Libya, Arabia, North America, Egypt, and Tunisia

197. The State of Arab Transitions: Hope Resilient Despite Many Unmet Demands

Author:: Mirette F. Mabrouk and Stefanie A. Hausheer
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Three years after the citizens of Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, and Yemen took to the streets demanding freedom, dignity, and greater economic opportunity, they are struggling with a harsh reality: political change is a slow, painful process. In many cases, the goals of the revolutions are far from being realized. Yet despite the lack of momentum—and in some cases, notable setbacks—there is a recognition that the wall of fear has been broken. This profound shift means that citizens in these countries will continue to demand basic freedoms and more accountable governments that deliver for their people.
Topic:: Democratization, Human Rights, Human Welfare, and Social Movement
Political Geography:: Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Egypt, and Tunisia

198. India 2014: Return of the One-Party Dominant System

Author:: Neera Chandhoke
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The current elections, which gave to the BJP a majority in Parliament, have brought back the one-party dominant system that was once used to describe the hegemony of the Congress party, and the lack of an opposition. The "new" one-party dominant system is however dramatically different from the original one. The BJP unlike the Congress is a cadre based party and subscribes to a distinct ideology. It is also headed by the powerful figure of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, whose image looms larger than the party and his colleagues. India will witness a qualitatively different style of governance in the next five years.
Topic:: Democratization, Power Politics, and Governance
Political Geography:: India and Southeast Asia

199. Regime Change, Democracy, and Growth

Author:: Caroline Freund and Mélise Jaud
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The empirical literature on the relationship between democracy and growth has yielded conflicting results. Cross-country studies have failed to identify a significant impact of democracy on growth, while within-country studies have found a strong positive effect of the transition to democracy on growth. We reconcile the conflicting evidence by showing that the positive effect of democratic transitions results from regime change as opposed to democratization. We identify over 100 transitions in the last half-century with various outcomes: to and from democracy, some partial, and some failed. The variety of experiences allows us to compare the growth outcome of democratic transitions with that of other transitions rather than with a no-transition counterfactual. Conditioning on regime change filters out selection effects and shows that transition to democracy yields no growth dividend compared to other types of regime change. We also show that countries that democratize slowly do not gain from regime change. These results suggest that the growth dividend from political transition results from swift regime change rather than from democratization.
Topic:: International Relations, Democratization, and Economics
Political Geography:: Brazil

200. Explaining the Trajectory of Golkar's Splinters in Post-Suharto Indonesia

Author:: Yuddy Chrisnandi and Adhi Priamarizki
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Following the implementation of Law No. 2/1999 on political parties by former president Bacharuddin Jusuf Habbibie, the multiparty system has been championed as the more prominent feature of the rapidly democratized Indonesian political landscape in the post-Suharto era. he implementation of such a law replaced the three-party system that had previously been dominated by the single hegemonic political vehicle of the New Order, Golkar or Golongan Karya [the Functional Groups], for almost 26 years. In the 1999 General Elections (GE), Indonesia witnessed an exuberance of new political parties. A total of forty-eight new political parties joined the 1999 election, the first free and fair democratic election since the 1955 GE. While the number of political parties may seem overwhelming, such a political turnout is not surprising given the degree of plurality of Indonesian society. In the 2004, 2009, and 2014 GE respectively, 24, 38, and 12 national political parties competed.
Topic:: Democratization, Politics, and Governance
Political Geography:: Asia and Southeast Asia

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS