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30101. Stock-Market Expectations: Econometric Evidence that both REH and Behavioral Insights Matter

Author:
Roman Frydman and Josh Stillwagon
Publication Date:
06-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Behavioral finance views stock-market investors’ expectations as largely unrelated to fundamental factors. Relying on survey data, this paper presents econometric evidence that fundamentals are a major driver of investors’ expectations. Although expectations are also in part extrapolative, this effect is transient. The paper’s approach underscores the central importance of opening models to structural change and imposing discipline on econometric analysis through specification testing. Our findings support the novel hypothesis that rational market participants, faced with unforeseeable change, base their forecasts on both fundamentals - the focus of the REH approach - and the psychological and technical considerations underlying behavioral finance.
Topic:
Markets, Economic Theory, Survey, and Stock Markets
Political Geography:
Global Focus

30102. On Historical Household Budgets

Author:
Brian A'Hearn, Nicola Amendola, and Giovanni Vecchi
Publication Date:
05-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
The paper argues that household budgets are the best starting point for investigating a number of big questions related to the evolution of the living standards during the last two-three centuries.
Topic:
Budget, Fiscal Policy, Homeownership, and Housing
Political Geography:
Global Focus

30103. A Method for Agent-Based Models Validation

Author:
Mattia Guerini and Alessio Moneta
Publication Date:
03-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
This paper proposes a new method to empirically validate simulation models that generate artificial time series data comparable with real-world data. The approach is based on comparing structures of vector autoregression models that are estimated from both artificial and real-world data by means of causal search algorithms. This relatively simple procedure is able to tackle both the problem of confronting theoretical simulation models with the data and the problem of comparing different models in terms of their empirical reliability. The paper also provides an application of the validation procedure to the Dosi et al. (2015) macro-model.
Topic:
Economics, Economic Theory, Data, and Models
Political Geography:
Global Focus

30104. Luigi Pasinetti and the Political Economy of Growth and Distribution

Author:
Joseph Halevi
Publication Date:
03-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
This paper provides a careful and synthetic overview of his contributions as well as a reconstruction of Pasinetti’s philosophical approach to economics as a science meant to serve humanity. Luigi Pasinetti’s work has deeply affected modern economic theory. His papers on the Cambridge Capital Controversy are world renowned. But he has made many other contributions to the economic debates of the last half century, offering not only detailed criticisms of mainstream economic theory, but also the elaboration of an alternative, more complete, and coherent framework for understanding growth and income distribution, structural change, and trade relations. He has also made notable contributions to discussions of economic policy. Pasinetti’s papers are very clearly written, but many are formidably technical and often build cumulatively on his previous work. This paper arises from a set of notes I wrote in July 2014 for Thomas Ferguson, the Research Director of the Institute for New Economic Thinking in New York, as he prepared for a series of meetings with Professor Luigi Pasinetti in Milan. Both he and Professor Geoffrey Harcourt strongly encouraged me to expand these. In the present paper the sequence is kept as in the original notes with some important additions while the text has been changed into a more discursive style.
Topic:
Political Economy, Economic Growth, Economic Policy, and Economic Theory
Political Geography:
Global Focus

30105. Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth: Production-based versus Consumption-based Evidence on Decoupling

Author:
Goher-Ur-Reham Mir and Servaas Storm
Publication Date:
03-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Working Paper Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth: Production-based versus Consumption-based Evidence on Decoupling MAR 2016 | ENERGY | ENVIRONMENT SHARE WORKING PAPER SERIES BY Goher-Ur-Rehman Mir Ecofys Consulting Servaas Storm Senior Lecturer of Economics, Delft University of Technology DOWNLOAD PAPER We assess the Carbon-Kuznets-Curve hypothesis using internationally consistent and comparable production-based versus consumption-based CO2 emissions data for 40 countries (and 35 industries) during 1995-2007 from the World Input Output Database (WIOD). The estimates for per capita CO2 emissions are truly comprehensive as these include all carbon emissions embodied in international trade and global commodity chains. Even if we find evidence suggesting a decoupling of production-based CO2 emissions and growth, consumption- based CO2 emissions are monotonically increasing with per capita GDP. We draw out the implications of these findings for climate policy and binding emission reduction obligations.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Economic Growth, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
Global Focus

30106. Full Employment, Open Economy Macroeconomics, and Keynes’ General Theory: Does the Swan Diagram Suffice?

Author:
Paul Davidson
Publication Date:
02-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
This paper provides critical comments on the Peter Temin - David Vines promotion of the basic Swan Diagram as (1) a policy tool to encourage any individual debtor nation experiencing balance of payment deficits to reduce its exchange rate in order to expand exports and reduce imports and (2) the Swan Diagram as a simple model for understanding Keynes’s General Theory for an Open Economy. This paper explains that the Swan Diagram is completely incompatible with Keynes’s analysis. Instead Keynes advocated that the onus should be placed on creditor nations to correct international payments imbalances and thereby promote economic expansion internationally. Keynes warned against any deficit nation adopting a policy that tries to achieve a balance in its international payments by following any policy designed to reduce imports and increase exports. Such a policy sends a contractionary force onto the international economy and tends to injure all trading partners.
Topic:
Economics, Employment, Economic Theory, Macroeconomics, Unemployment, and Job Creation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

30107. Household Borrowing and the Possibility of “Consumption- Driven, Profit-Led Growth”

Author:
Mark Setterfield and Yun K. Kim
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
We first show that, with a Kaleckian structure that is consistent with Pasinetti (1962), the relationship between distribution and growth is more robust than conventional wisdom suggests. Next, we extend our model by incorporating borrowing and emulation effects into workers’ consumption behavior, under different assumptions about how debt is serviced. Our results demonstrate that borrowing and emulation transform the relationship between distribution and growth, giving rise to the possibility of a “consumption-driven, profit-led” growth regime (Kapeller and Schütz, 2015) and what we call the “paradox of inequality.” A key conclusion is that the wage-or -profit led characteristics of the growth process, rather than being invariant, can be altered by social constructs such as borrowing and consumption norms that change over time.
Topic:
Economics, Economic Growth, Economic Theory, Profit, Homeownership, and Consumerism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

30108. Fragile States Index 2016 – Annual Report

Author:
J. J. Messner and Nate Haken
Publication Date:
06-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Fund for Peace
Abstract:
The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
Topic:
Democracy, Refugee Crisis, Fragile States, Political stability, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Global Focus

30109. Technology and the Nature of Active Citizenship: The Case of Botswana

Author:
Molefe B. Phirinyane
Publication Date:
10-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
The use of technology in citizen participation has grown phenomenally in developed countries, but is emergent in most developing countries. Accessibility and the functionality of information and communication technologies such as telephone, cellular phone and internet have profound effect on citizen participation in politics, policy making and implementation. This study applies a case study methodology to understand the relationship between technology and the nature of active citizen participation in developing countries, using Botswana as a case example. The penetration and use of the information and communication technologies in politics and the policy-making process in Botswana remains low. Botswana first laid in place the policy, legal and institutional frameworks to guide its development of ICTs in her governance system. The country has since made significant gains on providing ICT infrastructure countrywide, and reducing the costs associated with accessing these where available. The country has registered improvements on all indicators on Technological readiness, further strengthening the country’s path on the adoption ICTs in its governance process.The findings suggest that countries should take the responsibility for, and be committed to, creating a conducive environment for the ICT industry to thrive while not losing focus of the ultimate objective of citizen participation.
Topic:
Communications, Citizenship, Participation, Information Technology, and E-Government
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

30110. Strengthening Local Government Service Delivery Systems Through the Open Government Initiative: The Case of Botswana

Author:
Naledi C. Madala and Molefe B. Phirinyane
Publication Date:
09-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
The Government of Botswana has, and continues to promote local government as an instrument of decentralization and public participation for local level governance and service delivery. Local authorities (LAs) are at the forefront of the provision of basic services to the local communities. The LAs are also a major channel for the use of public resources as exemplified by the significant budget allocations committed to them. It is, therefore, important that they conduct their business in the most effective and efficient manner. In order for public sector systems to deliver effective localized services, LAs in Botswana should be gradually transformed from bodies that are mainly concerned with pushing services but to proactively engage their citizens and represent their communities’ interests. Considering the extent of responsibilities of the local government authorities, there is a need to set clear expectations and have structures to ensure that local bodies respond to local needs by conducting local development in a timely, inclusive, open, honest and accountable manner. As some of the many efforts required to improve governance and service delivery in the country this paper proposes the establishment and operationalisation of an Open Local Government Framework, within which local bodies will be supported to make extensive local government information available online as part of an online LA notice board. This paper also recommends for the production of a Local Authority Data Book as a foundation for evidence-based policy-making and policy implementation.
Topic:
Government, Governance, Public Sector, Data, and E-Government
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

30111. Guru Padmasambhava of Odiyana (Odisha): The Founder of Lamaism in Tibet

Author:
Bimalendu Mohanty and Varish Panigrahi
Publication Date:
11-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Bhutan Studies
Institution:
Centre for Bhutan & GNH Studies (CBS)
Abstract:
Guru Padmasambhava of Odiyana went to Tibet along with his wife Mandarva in 747 CE at the invitation of the King Trisong Detsen (755 CE to 797 CE) of Tibet and established a Buddhist order that was based upon Vajrayana practice developed in Odisha. He brought a synthesis among the Bon religion, which existed in Tibet along with Sahajagyana, and established Lamaism. From the biographical sketches available from the existing documents, it is known that Padmasambhava was the adopted son of King Indrabhuti, the King of Sambala in Odiyana. The second wife of Guru Padmasambhava, Dakini Yeshe Tsogyal, had written a biography titled The Lotus Born: The Life Story of Padmasambhava where the Guru has been described as the son of King Indrabhuti of Odiyana. It is believed that before reaching Tibet, he had visited Bhutan along with his wife, to settle disputes among warring neighbouring countries and to bring peace in the region. He also spent some time in Sikkim and Nepal while en-route to Tibet.
Topic:
Religion, History, and Buddhism
Political Geography:
South Asia, Tibet, and Bhutan

30112. Guru Padmasambhava in Context: Archaeological and Historical Evidence from Swat/Uddiyana (c. 8th century CE)

Author:
Luca Maria Olivieri
Publication Date:
11-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Bhutan Studies
Institution:
Centre for Bhutan & GNH Studies (CBS)
Abstract:
In this contribution, which is based on a collection of data that were earlier presented in different fora1, I would like to first briefly touch upon the fact that last year the Italian Archaeological Mission in Swat2, founded by Giuseppe Tucci in 1955, just celebrated its 60th anniversary. The Mission, which I have the honor to lead3, is still in full activity despite the many dramatic events that hit the beautiful Swat valley between 2007 and 20104. I also intend to pay tribute to Giuseppe Tucci’s seminal essay, On Swat (Tucci 1977), which holds a wealth of suggestions and historical hypotheses that are still stimulating research5. Amongst those historical hypotheses, there are some aspects of mutual importance connecting Swat and Bhutan, i.e. the early diffusion of Vajrayana in Swat, the relationship between Swat and the trans-Himalayan regions, and the role of Guru Padmasambhava.
Topic:
Religion, History, Buddhism, and Archaeology
Political Geography:
South Asia, Tibet, Bhutan, and Himalayas

30113. Use of Social Media and Digital Technology from the Perspective of Citizen Engagement and Democratic Participation in the Works of Centre for Bhutan Studies & GNH Studies: A Positioning Paper

Author:
Dendup Chophel
Publication Date:
02-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Bhutan Studies
Institution:
Centre for Bhutan & GNH Studies (CBS)
Abstract:
Promotion of socio-economic and political dialogue, and engagement of citizens in the process of governance are essential features of a democracy. Public think tank organizations have a key role to play in this regard and thus, as the only state research organization, the Centre for Bhutan Studies & GNH Research (CBS) should be at the forefront of innovations in engaging with the public through policy dialogue by exploring various communication forums like social media. According to the Act for the Centre for Bhutan Studies (2001) by which it was established, the CBS is an autonomous government organization charged with conducting multi-disciplinary research into the history, culture, economy and policy of the country among others. It is mandated with promoting the culture of scholarship and public education through dissemination of timely and quality scholarly research findings. It is also aimed at influencing public policy by providing state institutions with informed and researched inputs. For these purposes, the CBS not only conducts independent research works, the results of which are published as scholarly books, but also organizes national and international conferences, public talks, promote collaboration with global research institutions and represents the country in various scholarly international forums to present the country’s policy positioning. For example, in just the area of media and governance, the CBS has organized various conferences like the major international conference on “Media and Public Culture in Bhutan” (June 2006) and “Deepening and Sustaining Democracy in Asia” (October 2009).
Topic:
Science and Technology, Governance, Democracy, Social Media, and Participation
Political Geography:
South Asia and Bhutan

30114. The Role of Deliberative Mini-Publics in the Quest for Gross National Happiness in Bhutan

Author:
Gerard W. Horgan
Publication Date:
02-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Bhutan Studies
Institution:
Centre for Bhutan & GNH Studies (CBS)
Abstract:
Political participation is recognized as a component of Bhutan’s multidimensional development framework, ‘Gross National Happiness’ (GNH). In recent years, Bhutan has instituted a conventional system of liberal democratic, representative democracy. However, this system has supplanted an earlier, indigenous system of village-based participatory democracy. This paper builds on the premise that, to be true to the goal of good governance encapsulated in GNH, Bhutan needs to embrace a deeper level of political participation than that embodied by representative democracy. The deficits of the new representative system are identified via the utilization of Lijphart’s majoritarian versus consensual democratic framework. It is suggested that a form of ‘deliberative polling’ should be institutionalized as part of the parliamentary policy-making process, as a complement to the existing representative system.
Topic:
Democracy, Political Participation, Policymaking, and Gross National Happiness (GNH)
Political Geography:
South Asia and Bhutan

30115. Enhancing Bhutanese Rice in the Domestic Market through increased Production and Favorable Pricing Regime

Author:
Ngawang Chhogyel, Mahesh Ghimiray, Kencho Wangdue, and Yadunath Bajgai
Publication Date:
02-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Bhutan Studies
Institution:
Centre for Bhutan & GNH Studies (CBS)
Abstract:
Rice (Oriza sativa L.) is one the most important food crops in Bhutan. Due to its national importance the Department of Agriculture (DoA) under the Ministry of Agriculture and Forests initiated technical interventions in the major rice growing dzongkhags (districts) to improve rice yield and production from 2008-2009. The aim of the program was to commercialize domestically produced rice through enhanced yield, production and rice value chain. The program involved increased investment for intensified promotion of higher yielding varieties of rice, farm mechanization, post harvest and marketing, capacity building, nutrient management and crop protection as the software component. The hardware part saw the constructions and renovations of many irrigation schemes and construction of rice processing units. As a result of the intensified interventions the productivity of rice yield has increased to 3.88 t/ha in 2013 from about 2.81 t/ha in 2009. Favourable pricing mechanism is essential for both farmers and the consumers although farmers want higher prices and the consumers the lower. To facilitate smooth trade the DoA has recommended prices for different varieties of paddy for farmers by maintaining reasonable margins besides associated costs. Therefore, adjusted farm-gate prices have been worked out so as to serve as the recommended paddy procurement prices or basis for calculation. The formal domestic rice trade has come to mainstream markets by involving the Food Corporation of Bhutan Limited. Due to the strategic interventions the domestically produced rice in circulation is estimated to be 255 t currently (as of June 2015) and it is expected to increase further with the prioritized investments, good pricing mechanism and policy support. In conclusion, the commercialization program brought about the increase in yield and overall production and has successfully main streamed trade of domestically produced rice in Bhutan.
Topic:
Agriculture, Markets, Food, Trade, Production, and Rice
Political Geography:
South Asia and Bhutan

30116. Export Price of Electricity in Bhutan: The Case of Mangdechhu Hydroelectric Project

Author:
Sangay Chophel
Publication Date:
02-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Bhutan Studies
Institution:
Centre for Bhutan & GNH Studies (CBS)
Abstract:
There has been substantial cost escalation on the ongoing hydropower projects in Bhutan, exerting pressure on already ballooning national debt. This has raised concerns on whether the benefits of hydropower projects outweigh the costs and on the preciseness of its costing. Based on data available in the detailed project reports and the agreement signed between India and Bhutan, this paper examines the financial viability of Mangdechhu project by employing two different methods: cost-plus method and financial cost-benefit analysis. The results show that cost-plus method undervalues the total cost of the project. The impact of changes in several parameters and cost overrun on tariff is also analyzed in this paper.
Topic:
Development, Economy, Exports, Electricity, Energy, and Hydropower
Political Geography:
South Asia and Bhutan

30117. Trans Legal Mapping Report: Recognition before the law (2016)

Author:
Zhan Chiam, Sandra Duffy, and Matilda González Gil
Publication Date:
11-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
ILGA World (International Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Trans and Intersex Association)
Abstract:
The Trans Legal Mapping Report is a research project by ILGA World, detailing the impact of laws and policies on trans persons across the globe. Its latest edition, released in September 2020, covers the legal situation in 143 UN member States: it highlights provisions which set out how trans and gender-diverse people can change their sex/gender marker and names on official identity documents (legal gender recognition), but also collects information on laws criminalising trans identities, both explicitly and de facto – looking at the situation for our communities in every region of the world. All too often, processes for gender marker and name change include requirements that are blatant human rights violations: this report outlines them clearly, but also shows progressive examples from across the world. Compiling information both through desk-based research and the lived realities of trans activists across the world, the ILGA World Trans Legal Mapping Report is a fundamental tool that advocates can use to engage with their national governments and bring about change.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, Law, LGBT+, and Transgender
Political Geography:
Global Focus

30118. State-Sponsored Homophobia (2016)

Author:
Aengus Carroll
Publication Date:
10-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
ILGA World (International Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Trans and Intersex Association)
Abstract:
Every year, ILGA World publishes its State-Sponsored Homophobia report, a world survey of sexual orientation laws. Since its first edition, back in 2006, ILGA World’s State-Sponsored Homophobia has been a fundamental resource for those interested in accessing the core information on legislation affecting people on the basis of their sexual orientation. Not only human rights defenders, but also civil society organisations, governmental and United Nations agencies, allies and media worldwide value the publication as one of the main sources of information on the issue. The publication is accompanied by a series of maps and charts illustrating where criminalisation, protection and recognition laws exist.
Topic:
Human Rights, Law, LGBT+, and Homophobia
Political Geography:
Global Focus

30119. United Nations Treaty Bodies: References to sexual orientation, gender identity, gender expression and sex characteristics: Annual Report 2015

Author:
Helen Nolan
Publication Date:
09-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
ILGA World (International Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Trans and Intersex Association)
Abstract:
Every year ILGA World publishes its annual Treaty Bodies reports, a compilation and analysis of SOGIESC references made by UN Committees. This is a key tool for advocates to clearly identify what has been recommended to their State, and also to see how they can influence future recommendations to better-serve local needs. Since the first 2014 edition, the reports cover data on country-specific recommendations made, general comments issued and individual cases reviewed by UN Treaty Bodies. Each of the reports include both general analysis of trends and gaps, and information on specific Treaty Bodies, including references to (de)criminalisation and trans and intersex persons’ situations. The compilation also touches on the intersection of our movements with others, looking at sex work and HIV/AIDS references too.
Topic:
HIV/AIDS, Treaties and Agreements, United Nations, LGBT+, Sexual Orientation, Gender Identity, and Sex Work
Political Geography:
Global Focus

30120. 2016-2017 Guide to Women Leaders in International Affairs

Author:
Women's Foreign Policy Group (WFPG)
Publication Date:
08-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Women's Foreign Policy Group (WFPG)
Abstract:
WFPG's Guide to Women Leaders in International Affairs highlights women shaping foreign policy around the world and the role that they play as leaders, diplomats, and policymakers. The Guide provides an index of prominent women from across the international community, including heads of state and government, government ministers and diplomats, and leaders of international organizations and corporations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Government, United Nations, Women, Leadership, and NGOs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

30121. Progressive Prudes: A survey of attitudes towards homosexuality & gender non-conformity in South Africa

Author:
Pierre Brouard, Melanie Judge, Mogopodi Lekonwe, Zethu Matabeni, Thabo Msibi, Xhanti Payi, Vasu Reddy, Finn Reygan, Ben Roberts, Carla Sutherland, and Niel Victor
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Other Foundation
Abstract:
There is a general belief that people in Africa are deeply homophobic and unaccepting of gender diversities, but what does the African public really think? The truth is that we haven’t really known because hardly any work has been done to gather and analyze the views of the public in a structured way in Africa. Now, the results of a ground-breaking survey of what all South Africans think about homosexuality and gender non-conformity – and how they behave, based on that – is available. For the first time, there is scientifically valid, nationally representative data to inform social dialogue and advocacy, public policies, and academic debate. The results confirm some common-sense realities which are often denied by those who oppose equality and social acceptance of gay and lesbian people – but which have not been tested in research on this scale up to now. The results also reveal some surprising new findings.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Discrimination, LGBT+, and Survey
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

30122. Does Material Hardship Affect Political Preferences? It Depends on the Political Context

Author:
Charlotte Cavaille and Anja Neundorf
Publication Date:
05-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
To what extent does material hardship affect political preferences? We argue that preference updating happens at the intersection of contextual pull factors, such as elite discourse, and individual push factors, such as an individual’s economic conditions. One key implication is that individuals are more likely to translate personal hardship into higher support for left-wing redistributive social policies when political elites actively compete over these issues. Using data from 22 European countries, we show that income is a better predictor of support for redistribution in countries where parties polarize over economic and redistributive issues. To unpack the causal relationship between preferences and elite behavior, we examine individual-level panel data from Great Britain, a country where elites have converged to the center on economic issues. We find that changes in the discursive context help understand both when material interest matters and how much it affects economic policy preferences.
Topic:
Politics, Poverty, Economy, and Elites
Political Geography:
Britain

30123. On the social appropriateness of discrimination

Author:
Abigail Barr, Tom Lane, and Daniele Nosenzo
Publication Date:
05-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
We experimentally investigate the relationship between discriminatory behaviour and the perceived social appropriateness of discrimination. We test the framework of Akerlof and Kranton (2000,2005), which suggests discrimination will be stronger when social norms favour it. Our results support this prediction. Using a Krupka-Weber social norm elicitation task, we find participants perceive it to be more socially appropriate to discriminate on the basis of social identities artificially induced, using a trivial minimal group technique, than on the basis of nationality. Correspondingly, we find that participants discriminate more in the artificial identity setting. Our results suggest norms and the preference to comply with them affect discriminatory decisions and that the social inappropriateness of discrimination can be a moderator of discriminatory behaviour.
Topic:
Politics, Economy, Discrimination, Norms, and Society
Political Geography:
Global Focus

30124. Economic Recessions and Congressional Preferences for Redistribution

Author:
Maria Carreri and Edoardo Teso
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
We analyze the roots of politicians’ preferences for redistribution by exploring whether early life experiences have persistent, long-run effects on U.S. Members of Congress’ voting records. We study whether having experienced an economic recession during early adulthood affected their positions on redistribution-specific bills during the period 1957–2012. We find that politicians who experienced a recession hold more conservative positions on redistribution, even compared to members of the same party in the same legislature. We rule out alternative accounts and show that experiencing a recession directly affects future politicians’ personal preferences. In light of recent empirical evidence showing that voters become more supportive of redistribution following a recession, our findings suggest that macroeconomic shocks have a polarizing effect: recessions can create an ideological wedge between voters and their future representatives.
Topic:
Politics, Economy, Redistribution, and Recession
Political Geography:
United States of America

30125. How Much Is That Star in the Window? Professorial Salaries and Research Performance in UK Universities

Author:
Gianni De Fraja, Giovanni Facchini, and John Gathergood
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
Using individual level data on the salary of all UK university professors, matched to results on the performance of academic departments from the 2014 Research Excellence Framework, we study the relationship between academic salaries and research performance. The UK higher education sector is particularly interesting because professorial salaries are unregulated and the outcome of the official research evaluation is a key financial concern of universities. To frame our analysis, we present a simple model of university pay determination, which shows that pay level and pay inequality in a department are positively related to performance. Our empirical results confirm these theoretical predictions; we also find that the pay-performance relationship is weaker for the more established and better paying universities. Our findings are also consistent with the idea that higher salaries have been used by departments to recruit academics more likely to improve their performance.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Inequality, Research, Higher Education, and Academia
Political Geography:
United Kingdom

30126. Plaintive Plaintiffs: The First and Last Word in Debates

Author:
Elena D'Agostino and Daniel J. Seidmann
Publication Date:
09-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
Plainti¤s/prosecutors present their evidence before defendants in common law trials. We analyze a model of trials with the following properties. If litigants share a common pool of evidence then they never prefer to present …rst, but may prefer to present second. However, litigants may prefer to present …rst if they have di¤erent available evidence because presenting …rst replicates the follower’s ex ante optimal commitment. If litigants share available evidence then a litigant cannot prefer the option to choose the order after observing the available evidence over always presenting second; and it may prefer to always present second over having the option to choose the order.
Topic:
Politics, Law Enforcement, Courts, and Debates
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

30127. Glass half full? Or half empty? Civil service professionalization in the Western Balkans between successful rule adoption and ineffective implementation

Author:
Jan-Hinrik Meyer-Sahling
Publication Date:
10-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
This paper examines the professionalization of the civil service in the Western Balkans in the context of European integration. It focuses on the fit of civil service systems with European principles of administration as applied by SIGMA and the European Commission to accession states. The analysis distinguishes ten domains of civil service management and three levels of institutionalisation including formal rules, the quality of implementation and the attitudes of civil servants towards European principles. Based on extensive documentary research, personal interviews and a web-based survey of ministerial civil servants, the analysis reveals that formal-legal frameworks fit the European principles to a considerable extent. The main challenge for civil service developments in the Western Balkans concerns the ineffective implementation of formal rules. Even if formal rules and procedures are routinely applied, they do not reach expected outcomes such as merit selection and impartial behaviour of civil servants in policy-making and implementation. Finally, it is shown that civil servants partially support the European principles. In particular, discretionary approaches to civil service management have become increasingly popular in the region. The conclusion explores potential explanations of the emerging pattern of civil service professionalization in the Western Balkans.
Topic:
Regional Integration, Civil Servants, and Professionalization
Political Geography:
Europe and Balkans

30128. Choosing Your Battles Wisely? Activist Preferences, Party Size and Issue Selection

Author:
Chitralekha Basu
Publication Date:
10-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
This paper seeks to explain why parties emphasize particular positional issues in their campaigns – a hitherto understudied topic. I find that the policy preferences of activists are an important influence on party platforms, and therefore, party emphasis decisions on positional issues. However, my analyses reveal party size to be a more important determinant of parties’ emphasis strategies than whether a party is ‘mainstream’ or ‘niche’. Large mainstream parties—termed ‘major parties’—de-emphasize issues on which their activists are relatively extreme, whereas both small mainstream and small niche parties—‘minor parties’—emphasize issues on which their activists are relatively extreme. Further, large niche parties appear to behave more like large mainstream parties than small niche parties in this respect. Using a variety of empirical approaches, I show that these findings can be explained as the consequence of vote-maximizing choices made by parties responding to different electorates. Conversely, they cannot easily be explained by strategic error or dogmatism on the part of some parties, or by the selection of activists into parties. These patterns hold across Western and Eastern Europe, suggesting that, in a variety of information environments, the appearance of policy moderation may be viewed as advantageous by major parties, and as potentially disadvantageous by minor parties.
Topic:
Elections, Political Parties, and Activism
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Western Europe

30129. Labor Market Participation, Political Ideology and Distributive Preferences

Author:
Simona Demel, Abigail Barr, Luis Miller, and Paloma Ubeda
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
Using a political-frame-free, lab-in-the-field experiment, we investigate the effects of employment status and political ideology on preferences for redistribution. The experiment consists of a real-effort task, followed by a four-player dictator game. In one treatment, initial endowments depend on participants’ performance in the real-effort task, i.e., they are earned, in the other, they are randomly determined. We find that being employed or unemployed affects revealed redistributive preferences, while the political ideology of the employed and unemployed does not. In contrast, the revealed redistributive preferences of students are strongly related to their political ideologies. The employed and right-leaning students redistribute earnings less than windfalls, the unemployed and left-leaning students make no such distinction. We conclude that, when people are not exposed to the sometimes harsh realities of the labor market, their redistributive preferences depend on their political ideology but, when they are exposed, the effect of those realities overrules their ideology.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, Employment, Ideology, Labor Market, and Redistribution
Political Geography:
Global Focus

30130. Ukrainian Identity: Changes, Trends, Regional Aspects

Author:
Valeriya Klymenko
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
The Razumkov Centre has been studying the identity of Ukrainian citizens since 2005, when for the first time in history of an independent Ukraine distinctions between the society’s different identity groups have created a foundation for a large-scale socio-political conflict known as the Orange Revolution. These studies, conducted in the period of 2005-2009 in Ukraine and its separate regions, including Crimea, uncovered a number of special features of Ukrainian identity, the major ones being: contradictions in the process of forming a common, national civic identity and vagueness of its prospects; presence of an opposing trend – formation of regional sub-national identities on the basis of regional localisation of different linguistic, cultural, national and ethnic, denominational identities of citizens in various parts of Ukraine. The studies have also found interdependence and cross impact between different identity distinctions, in particular linguistic and cultural, and the civic identity.1 Subsequently, starting from 2010, a whole number of events of different scale have taken place in the history of Ukraine due to internal and external factors. These events have, on the one hand, significantly influenced national identity formation in Ukraine and, on the other hand, have themselves become the consequence of the existing trends. In particular, the Razumkov Centre has expressed warnings that since a common national identity of Ukrainian citizens has not been fully formed yet, there is a risk of sub-national identities of some communities integrating with other foreign national identities. Unfortunately, this came true, with such tragic consequences as annexation of Crimea by Russia, attempts by several Eastern and Southern regions to split away from Ukraine (known as the “Novorossiya project”) and the armed conflict in Donbas with thousands of casualties. Results of opinion polls conducted in 2014-2015 demonstrate changes in different dimensions of Ukrainian citizens’ identity. Along with this, due to the circumstances, these changes are of different, at times inconsistent nature, and consequently may bring different outcomes for further development of Ukrainian society and statehood. This creates a need for deeper comprehensive study of Ukrainian identity, changes that occurred during 2006-2015, current processes and trends. The Razumkov Centre’s Project “Identity of Ukrainian Citizens: Changes, Challenges and National Unity Prospects” aims to solve these tasks. A national opinion poll was conducted as part of this project.2 The presented informational and analytical materials contain main results of this poll in terms of different aspects of citizens’ identity3 (“identities”) and their attitude to major topical problems in the society,4 and also describe aspects of identity of citizens from different regions and social groups.
Topic:
Politics, Citizenship, Language, and Identity
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

30131. Constitutional Process: Current Results, Risks and Prospects

Author:
Valeriya Klymenko
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
The current stage of the constitutional process was initiated by the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko in March 2015 with the establishment of the Constitutional Commission.1 Already on 1 July 2015, the Parliament registered the Draft Law of Ukraine “On Amendments to the Constitution of Ukraine – on decentralisation” (Reg. No. 2217a), developed by the Constitutional Commission and submitted by the President of Ukraine. On 31 August 2015, the day this bill was approved, grenades exploded in front of the Parliament on the Constitution Square. The presence in this bill on decentralisation of the controversial Paragraph 18 “Transitional Provisions” did not allow entering the process of final adoption of amendments to the Constitution (on decentralisation) in compliance with requirements of Article 155. On 25 November 2015, the subsequent Bill “On Amendments to the Constitution – on justice” (Reg. No. 3524) was registered in Parliament. In February 2016, the bill was approved, and on 2 June 2016, finally adopted by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. For the first time since the “political reforms” of December 2004, significant amendments to the Constitution of Ukraine were legally introduced. The adoption of a decision by Parliament to amend the Constitution of Ukraine in the part of justice, did not complete the reform of the judiciary. The fact that a number of amendments to the Constitution raised deep concerns among representatives of the expert community, and even more the judicial community, cannot be ignored. However, a number of updated provisions of the Constitution, implemented in effective mechanisms of special laws, are capable of positively influencing the judiciary. In this regard, firstly, the adoption by Parliament of the Law of Ukraine “On Judicial System and Status of Judges” in an unconstitutional way, with a gross violation of the Verkhovna Rada requirements cannot but cause concern. Second, the main content of the implemented law, introduced to the Parliament without obtaining opinions of the Scientific Experts Office or the Venice Commission, or discussing it in the expert community, can cause a real chaos in the process of implementing constitutional changes. The question remains uncertain about the prospects of the Draft Law of Ukraine “On Amendments to the Constitution of Ukraine – on human rights and freedoms” prepared by the Working Group of the Constitutional Commission. The analytical report has summarized theoretical grounds of regulations contained in the draft law. Since the work on the draft amendments to the Constitution was completed by the Working Group, the Constitutional Commission must make a final conclusion as to its readiness for submission to the President, who will decide on the introduction of a relevant bill to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. Both aspects of constitutional amendments were analysed in the study by the Razumkov Centre, which is reflected in the content of the Analytical Report.
Topic:
Human Rights, Reform, Constitution, and Judiciary
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

30132. Consolidation of Ukrainian Society: Challenges, Opportunities, Pathways

Author:
Valeriya Klymenko
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
This issue of the journal summarises findings of the second stage of the Razumkov Centre’s Project “Formation of a Common Ukrainian Identity under New Conditions: Features, Prospects and Challenges”. Studies undertaken as part of the first project stage helped to identify the shifts that took place in various aspects of national identity between 2005 and 2015, including those brought about by the Revolution of Dignity and provoked by the Russian aggression against Ukraine. These studies paint a fairly detailed portrait of identities of Ukrainian citizens, including cross-regional differences and specifics attributable to citizens belonging to various social groups.1 Certain important issues remain insufficiently explored, particularly the hierarchy of various types of identity, the correlation between civil, national and ethnic components of identity, how citizens in different regions perceive one another, public assessment of the significance of cross-regional differences for the country’s future, etc. Since the previous public opinion survey, notable changes have taken place at the state and society levels as well as in the international political landscape. These changes have affected the public mood. They mainly have to do with falling living standards, a declining level of trust in government institutions, political parties and individual politicians, active attempts of the aggressor state to destabilise situation in Ukraine, lack of progress in resolving the Donbas conflict and returning Crimea, a somewhat decreased level of attention to Ukraine from the international community coupled with Russia’s growing influence on political processes in certain Western countries, the conflicting positions of some EU countries on Ukraine’s European future, certain aspects of Ukraine’s relations with the EU as well as Russia’s role in the ongoing armed conflict. With these factors in mind, the Razumkov Centre has outlined the following key research objectives for the second stage of the project: • Obtain a more detailed picture of how citizens understand specific aspects of identity (particularly civil and socio-cultural identity); • Assess the intensity and nature of the impact these socio-political and international trends have on various identity aspects of citizens, primarily the civil aspect; • Study how citizens in different regions of Ukraine perceive one another, explore the specifics of this perception and the existing beliefs and stereotypes; • Identify the specifics of the viewpoints that residents in different regions have on factors contributing to the division or consolidation of society, and assess their potential impact; • Learn about the attitudes of citizens to possible political approaches and specific efforts in “sensitive” areas, particularly those concerning language, cultural and national policies, and their impact on national unity; • Analyse the experience of specific post-Soviet and post-socialist countries of Europe in matters of shaping and preserving national identity. Formulated in this way, objectives are aligned with overriding goal of the second project stage: to devise effective and theoretically sound political tools adapted to the existing social reality (i.e., the substance of public policy and methods for implementing it) intended for shaping a common national identity among Ukrainian citizens, which would accelerate the process of consolidation of Ukrainian society, help achieve mutual understanding and support national unity.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Citizenship, Identity, and Society
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Poland, Romania, and Baltic States

30133. Russia's "Hybrid" War -- Challenge and Threat for Europe

Author:
Valeriya Klymenko and Hanna Pashkova
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
Russia’s aggression against Ukraine that started in February 2014 with the annexation of Crimea and is still going on in Donbas, demonstrated critical vulnerability of the Western world to Kremlin’s “hybrid warfare” policy. The West, divided and burdened with internal problems (“migrant crisis”, Brexit) and external challenges (D. Trump “effect”, Syrian war), is experiencing a critical deficit of unity and coordination of actions toward Russia, lack of public awareness as to the nature and goals of Putin’s regime, fears of nuclear confrontation with Russia. Meanwhile, the far-right political movements, Euroscepticism, populism, isolationism – i.e., “LePenisation” of Europe – may gain ground after the elections in France and Germany. (Quite telling in this context have been the recent elections in Bulgaria and Moldova, where pro-Russian socialists won). All of this is happening amid total depreciation of global and regional security structures, and is threatening not only with escalation of conflicts on the continent, but also with destruction of the European community. The Western world has not generated adequate and effective means, mechanisms and policies to counter Russia’s hybrid expansion. On the contrary, there is an increasing threat of disintegration of a single “sanctions front”, which Kremlin will view with impunity and encouragement for further active actions. The conflict in Syria has proven that Kremlin’s imperial policy is not limited to the post-Soviet space, and Ukraine is just a springboard for further expansion. In the past three years, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has become deep-rooted and long-term causing tectonic changes in relations between Kyiv and Moscow. Russia’s aggression has inflicted unprecedented human, territorial, economic losses on Ukraine, and from the entire range of bilateral relations (not to mention the war itself), for a long time to come has left Ukraine only the format of confrontational coexistence with Russia – limited, forced, and cold – depending on the unfolding situation. The Russia-Ukraine hybrid war is not a local, peripheral conflict. Kremlin’s aggression poses a threat not only to Ukraine’s statehood and sovereignty, but also to the unity of the EU and, in general, to the political structure of Europe. Therefore, finding adequate, effective forms of response, developing a common policy of countering Russia’s expansion is critically important.
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Conflict, Hybrid Warfare, and Expansion
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

30134. Strategic Standoff: The U.S.-China Rivalry and Taiwan

Author:
Ian Easton
Publication Date:
03-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
The CCP views Taiwan as a grave threat to its grip on power. Consequently, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), which is the armed wing of the CCP, considers the invasion of Taiwan to be its most critical mission. Getting the strategic competition with China right will ultimately help America secure unprecedented levels of prosperity, freedom, and stability for all Pacific nations by the century’s midpoint.
Topic:
Security, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

30135. Reaching the Limits: China as a Responsible Stakeholder

Author:
John Lee
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
Given the U.S.-China economic relationship and China’s importance in Asia, America’s temptation is to seek a comprehensive cooperative framework to perpetuate its leadership and “tame” a rising China in order to promote stability in the region. Increasing economic interdependence does create common interests, and structured dialogues can reduce misunderstanding. But as Asia’s preeminent power and civilization for all but 200 of the past 3,000 years, China is too big, proud, and independently minded for America to “tame” or “manage.” Washington cannot hope to decisively determine the endgame for an authoritarian China-in which the CCP, leading a country of 1.4 billion people, will choose to become a “responsible stakeholder” within a U.S.-led order.
Topic:
Economics, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, International Order, and Stakeholders
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

30136. Challenges Facing Taiwan in the South China Sea

Author:
Ian Easton
Publication Date:
10-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
In principle, Taiwan’s sovereignty claims and territorial holdings in the South China Sea should be viewed by the U.S. as an asset. However, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has been able to exploit the fundamentally flawed bilateral relationship between Washington and Taipei to convince many observers that Taiwan has no positive role to play in the dispute. This paper will examine the many challenges facing Taiwan in the South China Sea. It will first lay out some of the reasons why the South China Sea matters to Taiwan’s interests. Next, it will assess the PRC threat to Taiwanese interests at the strategic, operational, and tactical levels of analysis. Finally, the paper will conclude with an outline of areas where the U.S. and Taiwan could cooperate to impose costs on PRC expansionism and better ensure regional peace and stability.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Territorial Disputes, Geopolitics, Political stability, and Regionalism
Political Geography:
Taiwan, Asia, North America, United States of America, and South China Sea

30137. The United States and Future Policy Options in the Taiwan Strait

Author:
Mark Stokes
Publication Date:
02-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
Taiwan is a core interest in U.S. foreign policy. Its values, technological prowess, and geostrategic position align with foundational American values and priorities for the region, making it a crucial U.S. partner in the Asia Pacific. As such, ensuring a stable and positive future for Taiwan as a democracy and a primary contributor to the global economy and international community is a high priority. This monograph concludes that a more objective representation of the status quo in the Taiwan Strait may better serve long-term U.S. interests.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Partnerships, Geopolitics, Global Political Economy, and International Community
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

30138. Uncomfortable Truths, Unconventional Wisdoms: Women’s Perspectives on Violent Extremism & Security Interventions

Author:
Sanam Naraghi-Anderlini
Publication Date:
03-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN)
Abstract:
Violent extremism has emerged as one of the most critical global security threats of our time. In 2016, some 120 countries worldwide face risks from violent extremism. Increasingly couched in religious and ethno-nationalistic identities, the ideologies that are spreading into the mainstream challenge the pluralistic nature of societies and if left unchecked could threaten the social cohesion of many nations. Acknowledging the complexity of the issues, in 2015 the international community led by the United States highlighted Preventing/Countering Violent Extremism (P/CVE) as a global policy priority. The importance of gender analysis and the work of women-led organizations, both globally and locally, in preventing and countering extremism are highlighted in key policy frameworks. For good reasons: across the Americas, Asia, Africa and the Middle East world, women’s rights groups have been warning against the rise of extremism for nearly three decades. They were first to notice, and often bear the brunt of, these regressive forces that represent the antithesis of basic principles of human rights, democracy and pluralism. Internationally, organizations such as the Association for Women’s Rights in Development (AWID) have led research and analysis of these issues for the past decade.
Topic:
Civil Society, Gender Issues, Nationalism, Violent Extremism, Women, Global Security, Social Cohesion, Pluralism, WPS, and Civil Society Organizations
Political Geography:
Global Focus

30139. We Will Survive: Women’s Rights and Civic Activism in Yemen’s Endless War

Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN)
Abstract:
Reflecting on the experiences of Yemeni women during the uprising, the transitional period and the national dialogue, this report provides a brief snapshot of the deteriorating humanitarian and socioeconomic conditions, the security concerns, the thwarted constitutional process and evolving political landscape and its implication for women. It highlights key recommendations to international and domestic actors with regard to peace, security and equality for Yemenis in the future.
Topic:
Political Violence, Civil Society, Gender Issues, Violent Extremism, Women, Arab Spring, Gender Based Violence, Humanitarian Crisis, WPS, and Civil Society Organizations
Political Geography:
Yemen

30140. Infrastructure Financing In Nigeria

Author:
Chukwuka Onyekwena, Precious Chukwuemelie Akanonu, and Anointing Ogie Momoh
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA)
Abstract:
Similar to most sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, Nigeria has a huge infrastructure deficit which considerably limits efforts towards achieving inclusive growth, sustainable development, and poverty reduction. With infrastructure stock estimated at 20-25 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Nigerias infrastructure stock is still significantly lower than the recommended international benchmark of 70 per cent of GDP. The 2014 National Integrated Infrastructure Master Plan (NIMP) estimates that a total of US$ 3 trillion of investments, or US$100 billion annually, is required over the next 30 years to bridge Nigerias infrastructure gap. In particular, the Plan estimates that Nigeria will have to spend an annual average of US$ 33 billion infrastructure investments for the period 2014 -2018. This means that Nigeria will have to more than double its spending on infrastructure from the current 2-3 per cent of GDP to around 7 per cent to make appreciable progress in infrastructure development over the next three decades.
Topic:
Economics, Infrastructure, GDP, Finance, Economic Growth, Economic Development, and Financial Institutions
Political Geography:
Africa, Nigeria, and Sub-Saharan Africa

30141. The Economic Impact of Bath Spa University

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Bath Spa University supported over 2,050 jobs in Bath and North East Somerset in 2014/15 – equivalent to one in every 49 jobs in the district. The University itself employs 966 people. This makes it the fifth largest employer in Bath and North East Somerset. It is considerably more than are employed by some of the city’s most famous institutions. In total, the University generated a value-added contribution of £93.9 million to the Bath and North East Somerset economy in 2014/15. This is equivalent to 2.0 percent of the district’s economic output. Of this, the University supported a £51.7 million contribution and the University’s additional students and their visitors the remaining £41.7 million contribution to GDP. In 2014/15, Bath Spa University made a total tax contribution of £21.1 million to the UK Exchequer. This could fund the Royal United Hospital’s and Royal National Hospital for Rheumatic Diseases’ running cost for about a month.
Topic:
Economics, Education, Labor Issues, Employment, Tax Systems, and Higher Education
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

30142. The Economic Impact of London Luton Airport

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
​London Luton Airport Limited and London Luton Airport Operations Limited commissioned Oxford Economics to undertake an analysis of the nature and scale of the economic impact of London Luton Airport on the UK as a whole, and on the surrounding sub-regional and local economies. The report sets out the results of that analysis, measuring the economic contribution of the airport in terms of jobs created, contribution to GDP and government tax receipts. We present results for the value of this impact in 2013 and forecast it out to 2030 under two scenarios for the future of the airport. The report goes on to explore the value that London Luton Airport creates for its passengers by offering them cheap and local air transport, and by relieving pressure on the air transport system elsewhere in the south east of England.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Labor Issues, Economic Growth, Transportation, and Airline Companies
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and London

30143. Economic Valuation of the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
This study assesses the total economic value generated by the Royal Botanic Gardens (RBG), Kew. It considers a range of benefits, including the value accruing to visitors; the value attributed to Kew by non-users; educational benefits for visiting students; and productivity benefits which result from RBG Kew’s scientific research. We find that RBG generated a total of £182 million of economic value for the UK in 2014/15. A further £8 million of value accrues to international visitors and students. This valuation should be regarded as conservative since it does not incorporate some important areas of RBG Kew's work, such as the ‘insurance’ value and potential future economic value of species held in RBG Kew’s scientific collections; the benefits of increased planting activity encouraged amongst the wider UK population; and the international value of RBG Kew’s scientific research. The latter, in particular, could be very substantial, both because of the large contribution Kew makes to the infrastructure upon which large swathes of plant biology research around the world rely, and because much of RBG Kew’s conservation and other applied work primarily benefits other countries.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Tourism, Conservatism, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

30144. When the Walls Come Down: How Smart Companies are Rewriting the Rules of the IOpoen Workplace

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
06-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Open-plan offices are meant to encourage collaboration and contribute to a collegial workplace culture, but they also come with serious drawbacks like noise and distraction. Oxford Economics conducted a survey of more than 600 executives and 600 employees to better understand what works for employees—and what doesn’t—about open-plan layouts, and to test for disconnects between workers and their managers. The results show that threats to productivity and worker peace of mind are bigger issues than most executives realize, and most do not have the technology or strategies in place to deal with the problems.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Work Culture, Innovation, and Business Management
Political Geography:
Global Focus

30145. One Million Opportunities: The Impact of Mobile Internet on the Economy of Southeast Asia

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
06-2016
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
​This study investigated the economic and social impact of mobile internet technology across the economies of South East Asia. In-house econometric research established the relationship between mobile internet penetration and key enablers of supply side growth including productivity and labour force participation. These results were applied to a group of economies in South East Asia to quantify the economic benefits of observed and forecast future increases in mobile internet penetration. Overall, increased mobile internet penetration is forecast to create an extra $58.1 billion in GDP and one million new job opportunities by 2020.
Topic:
Economics, Internet, Mobility, and Social Order
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

30146. The Recruitment of Migrant Workers By London Science and Technology Firms

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
08-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Access to talent is central to London’s competitiveness. It is important that all companies can recruit the skills and experience they need to innovate and grow. Tier 2 of the UK’s visa system is the main economic route for skilled immigration from outside the European Economic Area (EEA), where the position cannot be filled by a UK/EEA national or is on the Shortage Occupation List. This report assesses the extent to which start-ups and SMEs, particularly those in the science and technology sectors, have difficulties in recruiting from outside the EEA through Tier 2. It finds that while some firms are undoubtedly facing challenges, the problem is not especially widespread across the science and technology sector as a whole. However, at least some employers are encountering difficulties with Tier 2 and a faster, better-supported, and simpler process would make a real difference to employers.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Labor Issues, Employment, and Migrant Workers
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

30147. Impact of Illegal Gambling in Hong Kong

Author:
Andrew Tessler
Publication Date:
09-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Gambling is a regulated market in Hong Kong, with the Hong Kong Jockey Club (HKJC) being the only authorised operator. However, a substantial illegal market, exists alongside the legal market. This report examines the social and economic harms which illegal gambling imposes on Hong Kong. Using survey evidence it finds that illegal gamblers tend to include a high proportion of excessive gamblers amidst their ranks, and therefore tend to be more susceptible to the social harms (e.g. debt, bankruptcy, family problems) that excessive gambling brings. In addition, it explores the financial and economic implications of reducing the size of the illegal gambling market.
Topic:
Markets, Regulation, Gambling, and Illegal Trade
Political Geography:
Asia and Hong Kong

30148. Consumer Detriment: Counting the Cost if Consumer Problems

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
09-2016
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Every year, millions of UK consumers suffer from some form of consumer detriment, be it a delayed delivery, substandard service or the purchase of a faulty item. Such experiences are a familiar feature of everyday lives, but quantifying the scale and impact of these experiences for UK consumers in a systematic way is a complex task. This research project takes account of the monetary and time costs of consumer detriment, as well as compensation, to arrive at a considered estimate of total net cost for the UK population. This valuation incorporates three core elements. Firstly, it calculates the direct monetary costs borne by consumers who experience problems. These might be cash outlays caused by the problem itself (for example, when a broken toy is simply written off or when a poorly fitted boiler causes knock-on problems that have further costs) as well as any resulting loss of earnings. Secondly, it calculates the value of any leisure time given up by the consumer in experiencing or attempting to resolve the issue, so-called ‘time costs’, which might include things like time wasted on a delayed train, or time spent in a phone queue to get through to customer services. Thirdly, it calculates any compensation payments awarded in light of any claims made by the consumer, and subtracts these from the monetary and time costs described above. This approach seeks to present a comprehensive picture of UK consumer detriment, both larger and smaller problems.
Topic:
Markets, Services, Customer Service, and Consumerism
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

30149. How to Make a Deal: The Role of Rankings and Personal Ties in Creating Trust in the M&A Market

Author:
Valérie Boussard, Olivier Godechot, and Nicolas Woloszko
Publication Date:
06-2016
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:
This paper examines the selection of intermediaries in the French mergers and acquisitions (M&A) market, which is an opaque environment. Buyers and sellers cope with uncertainty as to the value of exchanged assets. They thus rely on the help of experts in order to secure deals. But as the valuators might be prone to opportunism, firms need to find a way to trust them. We identify two trust devices: social ties and public rankings. We explore whether these personal and impersonal devices are substitutes, independent or complementary. We study the French M&A market through a mixed-method approach, with both an ethnographic study (76 interviews) and the statistical analysis of 694 M&A deals in France in 2010. We show that both previous contacts and league table rankings of firms contribute to trust and to dealmaking. These trust devices are all the more likely to be used if the deal is risky, especially within the sell side (more at risk). We also find that firms tend to make deals only with other firms at the same level in the league tables: high-status firms tend to make deals together. Finally, we find some evidence of substitution between rankings and personal ties, especially for low-value deals.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, Macroeconomics, and Corporations
Political Geography:
France

30150. Economic Discourse and the European Integration of Financial Infrastructures and Financial Markets

Author:
Troels Krarup
Publication Date:
06-2016
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:
European integration of financial markets appears to repeatedly encounter specific kinds of problems about the substance and limits of the notion of “the market” undergoing integration, and about the status and role of money, market infrastructures, and government within it. Moreover, these problems and the controversies around them parallel classical discussions in economic theory such as that between conceptions of the market as a frictionless space and as a process of competition. A “competitive conception of the market” is identified as producing these parallel problems and controversies in European market integration and economic theory because it implies a contradictory “integration of fragmentation.” These themes and parallels can be specifically identified in a recent major project to integrate financial market infrastructures: a pan-European settlement platform – “Target2-Securities (T2S)” – to overcome existing fragmentation between the systems that perform the actual delivery of money and securities from financial transactions. Moreover, a close analysis of T2S answers a question that existing sociological and political economy approaches to European integration – focusing primarily on the interests and ideas of powerful players – struggle with: why T2S will become de facto a monopoly for the European Central Bank when early on in the integration process EU institutions emphasized an industry-led integration. Foucault’s notion of “discursive formation” is employed to conceptualize these arguments.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, Finance, Financial Markets, Economic Theory, and Michel Foucault
Political Geography:
Europe