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30101. The Iraqi Kurdistan Region's Role in Defeating ISIL

Author:
Hemin Hawrami
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
ARI Movement
Abstract:
The summer of 2014 was a fatal summer, not only for the Iraqi Kurdistan Region but also for the Middle East and the rest of the world. It witnessed the rise of one of the deadliest terrorist groups: the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). The Kurdistan Regional Government and its Kurdish military forces, the peshmerga, have been instrumental in deterring ISIL’s further encroachment However, the author argues that the peshmerga cannot fight ISIL alone and calls upon the international community to provide unified support in the form of arms, equipment, and training. The author makes the case that this virulent terrorist group can only be destroyed through a coordinated strategy and support given by an international coalition.
Topic:
Terrorism, Military Strategy, Violent Extremism, and ISIL
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan

30102. Turkey's Islamists: From Power-Sharing to Political Incumbency

Author:
Bell Ozkan
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
ARI Movement
Abstract:
The complex relationship between political Islam and the Turkish state – from political exclusion in the early Republican era, to power-sharing in the post-World War II multi-party era, to political incumbency in the 2000s – was crowned by AKP’s landslide electoral victory in 2002. The author debunks two myths regarding this relationship: first, that Kemalism enjoyed a monopoly of political power for decades and second, that Islamists achieved victory in 2002 after being the regime’s sole opposition. According to the author, Turkey’s failed Middle East policy can be attributed to AKP’s misconception that its Islamic counterparts would achieve power after the Arab uprisings just as they had done in Turkey in 2002.
Topic:
Religion, Elections, Democracy, Domestic Politics, and Secularism
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Asia

30103. The Turkmens of the Middle East

Author:
Ersan Hurmuzlu
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
ARI Movement
Abstract:
The Turkmens, descendents of the Oghuz confederation of Turkic-speaking nomadic tribes of the early Middle Ages, are currently scattered across the Middle East and Central Asia. Focusing on the Turkmen populations of Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, and Iran, the author delves into their situation as minority groups who are barred from political participation and from expressing their cultural identity. This plight has only been exacerbated for the Iraqi Turkmens since the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). In order to overcome socio-political marginalization, the author advocates for Turkmens to unite and form linkages with other minority groups.
Topic:
Culture, Minorities, Identities, and Marginalization
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Palestine, Lebanon, and Syria

30104. Protecting Eastern Christianity in the Middle East: Russia's New Diplomatic Tool

Author:
Bernard El Ghoul
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
ARI Movement
Abstract:
The intensification of Russia’s diplomacy in the Middle East is combined with a clearly defined objective: positioning itself as the new protector of persecuted Christians in the region. The author highlights both the ambitions of the Kremlin in the Mediterranean and the ever-growing influence of the Russian Orthodox Church, which has become a major political actor. Moscow sees Shiite Islam as its ally in the Middle East and is increasingly aligning itself with a Shiite axis composed of Iran, Syria, and the Lebanese Hezbollah. The author examines this burgeoning Russian-Shiite alliance in light of Russia’s strategic interests in the region.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Religion, Violent Extremism, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

30105. Hezbollah's Ascent and Descent

Author:
Lina Khatib
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
ARI Movement
Abstract:
Hezbollah today is Lebanon’s strongest political party. However, its military intervention in the Syrian conflict has put it at a crossroads. While the party’s domestic strength continues, largely due to the weakness of its Lebanese political opponents and to its reliance on the possession of weapons to intimidate them, Hezbollah is facing increasing challenges in Syria. The author argues that as a deal on Iran’s nuclear ambitions looms, and with it the possibility of imposed limitations on Iran’s behavior by the international community, Hezbollah – being Iran’s key client – will find its autonomy and ability to act in the domestic Lebanese sphere as well as externally reduced in the future.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Violent Extremism, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Syria

30106. Turmoil in the Middle East and Turkish-American Relations

Author:
Sabri Sayari
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
ARI Movement
Abstract:
Turkey’s Middle East policy under the AKP government – in particular, its stance on Syria and the fight against ISIL – has had a damaging effect on not only its 60-year-old alliance with the US, but also its regional standing. The author chronicles several of the government’s blunders, arguing that they ultimately stem from a “fundamental miscalculation of Turkey’s power and capacity to shape regional developments.” From the government’s misplaced confidence in Bashar al-Assad’s regime and subsequent radical reversal in its Syria policy, to its sectarian approach to the region and support of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, to its deteriorated relationship with Israel, the author contends that Turkey has succeeded only in further alienating itself.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and ISIL
Political Geography:
United States, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Syria, and Egypt

30107. Turkey and Iran: The Best of Frenemies

Author:
Merve Tahiroglu and Behnam Ben Taleblue
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
ARI Movement
Abstract:
Inheriting a legacy of imperial competition, the Turkey-Iran rivalry today manifests itself through the contest for leadership of the Arab Middle East, and Muslim hearts and minds more generally. The authors contend that Turkey and Iran’s relationship transcends the boundaries of amity or enmity that traditionally define actors in the modern Middle East state system. Rather, Ankara and Tehran have been able to successfully compartmentalize elements of their rivalry while strengthening bilateral ties and expanding areas of economic cooperation. The authors posit that the present-day Turko-Iranian relationship falls in the category of neither friend nor enemy, but rather that of frenemy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, and Asia

30108. Iran's New Social Media Friendly Approach

Author:
Mojtaba Barghandan
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
ARI Movement
Abstract:
The Islamic Republic of Iran entered into a new era of public diplomacy following Hassan Rouhani’s victory in the June 2013 presidential election. Iran seeks both to revitalize its soft power tools and reach out to the international community through a more moderate, tolerant, and open dialogue policy. Digital diplomacy and social media have become increasingly important to this end. The author expounds on the new administration’s social-media friendly approach to fulfilling its foreign policy goals, in addition to taking stock of the soft power initiatives undertaken by international actors, and the possible obstacles for Iran in employing these same methods.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Media, Social Media, and Digital Culture
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

30109. Israel: Interrupted Democratic Development?

Author:
Itzhak Galnoor
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
ARI Movement
Abstract:
Since the establishment of the State of Israel in 1948, Israeli democracy has followed a unique trajectory. Despite its strengths – regular and fair elections, an independent judiciary, a pluralistic party system etc. – the author argues that democratic development is in fact “interrupted.” The author identifies four main areas: the continuous occupation since 1967, the status of the Arab citizens within Israel, the growing socio-economic gaps, and the relationship between the state and religion. In order to mitigate the threats to Israeli democracy, the author espouses going back to fundamental democratic values – above all, democratic education in schools to build an enduring trust in democracy among young people.
Topic:
Development, Culture, Minorities, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

30110. Education for Social Change in Lebanon

Author:
Melek El Nimer
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
ARI Movement
Abstract:
Lebanon has been hosting refugees for over half a century. While the Palestinian refugees have been present since 1948, the recently incoming one million Syrian refugees have only exacerbated the already unstable assistance the country provides for refugees. One of the most devastating consequences of this is the lack of proper education and academic opportunities for the youth. The author’s organization, Unite Lebanon Youth Project (ULYP), aims to tackle this issue through providing a holistic education for underserved children, youth, and women across the country. In what follows, the author presents an overview of the situation of the target beneficiaries and how the ULYP helps them meet the challenge of building a better future for themselves, their communities, and Lebanon at large.
Topic:
Education, Refugee Issues, Youth, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, Lebanon, and Syria

30111. Turkey: The Almost Mediator State

Author:
Gabriel Mitchell
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
ARI Movement
Abstract:
Most analysts consider Davutogˆlu’s “zero problems with neighbors” strategy a failure, and typically cite Turkey’s decision to lend its support to religious conservative movements like the Muslim Brotherhood during the Arab Spring as a primary example. However, the failures of the last few years must also be understood within the framework of a larger narrative where Turkey has insisted on functioning as an intermediary between Israel and Syria, and the United States and Iran. These episodes, during which Turkey overstepped the boundaries of its influence, revealed the limitations of Turkish foreign policy and foreshadowed its regional decline.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Civil War, Diplomacy, and Mediation
Political Geography:
United States, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Syria

30112. The gender Dimension of the Authoritarian Backlash in Egypt

Author:
Liina Mustonen
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
ARI Movement
Abstract:
The campaign against the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood during its short-lived rule instrumentalized the notion of gender equality for political purposes – namely demonizing the Brotherhood and the subsequent overthrow of President Mohamed Morsi. Narratives were constructed along the dichotomy of emancipated Egyptian woman and oppressed, traditional women. However, there has been a rapid de- politicization of the discussion on women’s role in society following Morsi’s ouster. The author argues that the absence of a debate on the patriarchal structures of the political and military forces that have substituted Morsi’s rule reveals the hollowness and political nature of these gendered discourses.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Military Affairs, Conservatism, Feminism, and Oppression
Political Geography:
Africa, North Africa, and Egypt

30113. Evaluating Project Aim 2020: Preparing to Transform the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission

Author:
Robert Shea
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The National Academy of Public Administration (NAPA)
Abstract:
The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has experienced significant changes over the last five years. NRC developed Project Aim 2020 (Project Aim) to improve the agency’s planning and operational functions. Project Aim set out to identify key strategies and recommendations to transform the agency during the next five years to enhance the NRC’s ability to plan and execute its mission in a more effective, efficient, and agile manner. The NRC requested the National Academy of Public Administration (the Academy) to conduct an independent assessment of Project Aim. The Academy’s review of Project Aim consisted of two reports: an evaluation of Project Aim processes; and an assessment of the Project Aim final report. The Academy reports were prepared by a professional Study Team, in consultation with an experienced Focus Group of five Academy Fellows and one non-Fellow. The Study Team and Focus Group utilized their knowledge of strategic planning and organizational change management in their evaluation of the NRC’s efforts, providing the NRC with several pragmatic recommendations as the agency pursues an important organizational transformation.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, United Nations, Military Strategy, Nuclear Power, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

30114. The Colombian peacebuilding process: discussion at an international seminar

Author:
Augusto Varas
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Peace talks between the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia have created international expectations of an end to the longest internal armed conflict in Latin America. However, peace negotiations are facing crucial obstacles: agreements reached thus far are too general and need further detailed development; both parties are facing internal opposition; the social demand for transitional justice is widespread, but its implementation will be difficult; and, because of this, legitimising a peace agreement would require a protracted political effort, civic participation and a solid communication campaign explaining the terms of the agreement. The post-agreement phase would require the implementation of key public policies to close the rural-urban gap and cut the guerrilla-drug trafficking link; new and more efficient government agencies at the subnational level should be created to deliver public goods; military institutions should have greater civilian control and leadership to transform their role from internal security to that of national defence; and since the peace process has been gender blind, it will be crucial to increase women’s participation in the peacebuilding process. Arms decommissioning and arsenal destruction should have a blueprint, and social movements should oversee the enforcement of peace agreements and peacebuilding policies.
Topic:
Narcotics Trafficking, Peacekeeping, Conflict, and Drugs
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, and Latin America

30115. The Colombian peace process: paradoxes and dilemmas

Author:
Juan Gabriel Tokatlian
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The parties to the conflict in Colombia are relatively close to a final agreement, but obstacles remain. Internal tensions remain high in Colombia, despite the advances in Havana, and the need to promote a “pedagogy for peace” is urgent in light of these tensions. In particular, the transformations and adjustments required to achieve a successful peace and not just a temporary reduction of violence need to be focused on. A NOREF-Universidad Di Tella seminar in Buenos Aires concluded that the GOC-FARC negotiation process is gradually becoming a fact of Colombian politics, but frictions will grow as peace becomes more likely. The issues of land, the state and the rule of law will remain central to Colombian society and therefore to the peace process. In a problem-filled global environment, peace in Colombia could be a positive factor. The U.S. has not undermined the peace negotiations as it did under previous Colombian administrations, while the participation of Latin America will be significant in building peace in Colombia.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Peacekeeping, Negotiation, and Violence
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, and Latin America

30116. The role of norms in international peace mediation

Author:
Sarah Hellmüller, Julia Palmiano Federer, and Mathias Zeller
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
This policy brief assesses the role of norms in international peace mediation. Despite the topic attracting growing attention, the ways in which norms influence mediation processes are often not analysed systematically but rather prescriptively. In order to shed light on this debate from an analytical point of view, the brief suggests a three-step analytical framework. First, it suggests a categorisation of norms, then it assesses how mediators prioritise norms within this framework and finally it calls for a context-specific inclusion of norms in mediation processes. Thus, it argues that explicitly elucidating the different categories of norms, as well as their prioritisation by mediators, mandate-givers and negotiating parties, will lead to a more constructive debate and provide sustainable solutions that are owned by national, and supported by international, actors.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Peace, and Mediation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

30117. Scenarios for a peace mission for Syria

Author:
Alvaro Vasvoncelos
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
This policy brief reviews the current political and humanitarian situation in Syria and analyses possible scenarios for a peace mission for Syria. The brief argues that the most likely scenario for an end to the conflict would require a regionally led solution involving Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, with the eventual backing of the US and Russia. Four preliminary conclusions have been identified: There is a highly fragmented military situation and any peace deal will face armed opposition. There will probably be a need for a peace mission. One option may involve limited missions to secure local ceasefires. A second option could involve a two-tier mission that, following a peace deal, is able to perform a mix of tasks that includes peace enforcement and peacekeeping. A coalition of EU states should assume the hard military core of any two-tier mission within a “Berlin Plus” framework that allows for the use of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) assets and capabilities. They should act, however, with the participation of a wider grouping of states, including BRICS countries such as Brazil, Russia and India, as well as members of the Arab League. There is no solution to the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) challenge in isolation from the broader issues at the root of the conflict. A democratic political process with elections and a new constitution must be the end game for any peace mission.
Topic:
NATO, ISIS, Islamic State, and Peace
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Syria, and North America

30118. Why “no-fly zones” or “IS-free zones” are not a solution in Syria

Author:
Hrair Balian
Publication Date:
08-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
There is a renewed push to establish “no-fly” and “IS-free” zones in Syria. An external military intervention to establish such zones, even with the good intention of protecting civilians, is likely to precipitate more chaotic fighting and further harm civilians. Instead, the international community should build a minimum consensus among the “Friends of Syria”, Russia, and Iran to accommodate the interests and concerns of Syria’s external stakeholders, and reconcile the existential fears of various communities and regime supporters in Syria with the aspirations of the country’s majority Sunni population. Once these fundamental issues are addressed, a political solution to the Syrian crisis will become possible.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Civil War, Military Strategy, and Air Force
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Syria

30119. Russia’s policy in the Middle East imperilled by the Syrian intervention

Author:
Pavel K. Baev
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The military intervention launched by Russia in Syria in September 2015 has altered the character of this protracted civil war and – quite remarkably – has both advanced and jeopardised Russia’s positions in the Middle East. This risky experiment in power projection constitutes a continuation of traditional Russian policy in this rapidly transforming region, but is also a departure from the strategy of careful manoeuvring aimed at exploiting the confusion in U.S. and European policies. Quite possibly the main drivers for this proactive move were either domestic factors or issues related to the confrontation with the West caused by Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. The present analysis, however, deals only with the Middle Eastern contexts, aims and consequences of this enterprise.
Topic:
Civil War, Imperialism, Military Strategy, and Military Intervention
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, and Syria

30120. A Fresh Analysis of the Humanitarian System in Somaliland, Puntland and South Central Somalia: Somali state agencies and local organisations' capacities to manage humanitarian action

Author:
Fernando Almansa
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
In Somaliland, Puntland and South Central Somalia, the International Community is mixing its political interests with its humanitarian agenda. Insecurity severely hampers access in many parts, making it difficult to implement and monitor humanitarian responses. International humanitarian actors need to revisit their strategies and invest more in working with local agencies to deliver aid. Local humanitarian actors need to take courageous humanitarian leadership with full accountability and transparency. Many international donors often appear to give priority to broader security agendas and the need for transparency over humanitarian action to save lives. This report assesses the capacity of local humanitarian actors to deliver humanitarian aid in response to the repeated crises that the country faces. It is the starting point of an Oxfam project to build the strength of local humanitarian actors to deliver effective humanitarian responses.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Transparency, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa, Somalia, Puntland, and Somaliland

30121. Harmless Harvest: How sustainable agriculture can help ASEAN countries adapt to a changing climate

Author:
Maria Dolores Bernabe
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
A better way of growing food is the best bet against climate change for Southeast Asia's small-scale food producers. Sustainable agriculture - agriculture that can meet the needs of present and future generations, ensures the efficient production of safe, high-quality agricultural products in a way that protects the natural environment, and improves on the economic conditions of farmers and local communities - offers the best chances for countries belonging to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to deal with climate change. By scaling-up sustainable agricultural practices across the region, ASEAN can help feed its peoples and support the livelihoods of small-scale food producers, and help curb greenhouse gas emissions to push back impending catastrophe.
Topic:
Agriculture, Environment, Regional Cooperation, and Food
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

30122. Let Them Eat Coal: Why the G7 must stop burning coal to tackle climate change and fight hunger

Author:
Kiri Hanks and Julie-Anne Richards
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Climate change is already the biggest threat to winning the fight against hunger. Coal is the biggest single cause of climate change, yet the G7 countries are still burning huge amounts, despite efficient, affordable, renewable alternatives being available. G7 coal power stations emit twice as much fossil fuel CO2 as the whole of Africa, and their contribution to global warming will cost Africa alone more than $43bn per year by the 2080s and $84bn by 2100, and lead to several million tonnes of staple crops lost worldwide. This year will see crucial new UN climate talks in Paris. To set the tone for a successful climate agreement at the UN talks in December, the G7 must lead the world in setting out clear plans for a just transition away from coal. This Oxfam briefing paper shows how with the right mix of regulatory and policy measures, some countries can move to coal-free electricity grids within the next decade. Oxfam commissioned the think-tank E3G to review the current coal situation in all G7 countries.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, United Nations, Hunger, and Coal
Political Geography:
Africa

30123. For Human Dignity: The World Humanitarian Summit and the challenge to deliver

Author:
Edmund Cairns
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The UN Secretary-General has called the World Humanitarian Summit in 2016 'to make humanitarian action fit for the future'. Tens of millions of people receive humanitarian aid every year, but millions more suffer without adequate help and protection, and their number is relentlessly rising. One summit cannot change everything. But the key tests of its integrity and success are that the World Humanitarian Summit: €¢ demands that states are held to account for their international obligations on assistance and protection; and €¢ sets out genuinely new ways to support local humanitarian action, to reverse the growing gap between the amount of aid needed and given, and to reduce the risk of future disasters
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, United Nations, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Global Focus

30124. Somali Solutions: Creating conditions for a gender-just peace

Author:
Siham Rayale, Ed Pomfret, and Deborah Wright
Publication Date:
08-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
This report looks at Somali women's experiences with conflict, peace, violence, insecurity and state rebuilding. It uses an approach geared towards gender-just peace-building to understand the ways in which Somali women have fulfilled their role as agents of change, while navigating the challenges posed by women's exclusion from many forms of public life (government, civil society, universities, open markets etc). Interviews and focus groups have been used to illustrate diverse perspectives and to demonstrate that Somali women have always been principal agents of change and social transformation. The report's recommendations are an acknowledgement of the role Somali women have played throughout the course of Somali history, and continue to play today, in shaping the pathway towards greater participation for women across Somali regions, and the challenges they face in so doing.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Social Movement, Women, and Gender Based Violence
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

30125. A Europe For the Many, Not the Few: Time to reverse the course of inequality and poverty in Europe

Author:
Teresa Cavero
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Europe is facing unacceptable levels of poverty and inequality. Instead of putting people first, policy decision making is increasingly influenced by wealthy elites who bend the rules to their advantage, worsening poverty and economic inequality, while steadily and significantly eroding democratic institutions. Austerity measures and unfair tax systems across Europe are skewed in favour of powerful vested interests. It is time to reverse the course of poverty and inequality in Europe, putting people first.
Topic:
Poverty, European Union, Economic Inequality, and Elites
Political Geography:
Europe

30126. For Richer or Poorer: The capture of growth and politics in emerging economies

Author:
Alice Krozer
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The emerging economies Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, South Africa and Turkey - in short, the BRICSAMIT - have come to be considered the economic powerhouses of recent decades. Not only have these countries managed to reduce poverty; most have embarked on a steep economic growth path and play an increasingly influential role on the global scene. But today, all eight BRICSAMIT countries occupy the top ranks as some of the most unequal countries in the world. The price these countries - and millions of their citizens - pay for this is high. Excessive inequality hampers development prospects: negatively impacting growth potential, threatening poverty reduction, leading to mass migration flows and 'brain drain', and reducing opportunities for young people. This report, which was commissioned by civil society networks across the BRICSAMIT countries, aims to increase the urgency to tackle the structural causes of inequality by shedding light on the nature and scope of the issue in the BRICSAMIT, and the economic, political and social consequences these countries are now facing as a result.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Migration, Poverty, and Economic Inequality
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, China, Europe, Indonesia, Turkey, Asia, South Africa, Brazil, South America, and Mexico

30127. Implementing the PWDVA: Safeguarding women from domestic violence

Author:
Pooja Parvati
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Violence Against Women and Girls (VAWG) is one of the most widespread, and yet the least recognized, human rights violations across the world. It can manifest in many forms, but the most common form experienced by women globally is physical violence inflicted by an intimate partner. Documenting this continues to be a challenge due to lack of reliable, timely datasets. In 2005, the government of India enacted the Protection of Women from Domestic Violence Act (PWDVA), which came into force in 2006. Nine years later, progress in its implementation is insignificant as it remains plagued by challenges such as inadequate funds and human resources, poor coordination across implementing agencies and ineffective monitoring mechanisms. Addressing these would go a long way in strengthening the Act and making it effective. This also corresponds with the Indian government’s wholehearted commitment to ‘Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls’ by the year 2030 through its adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
Topic:
Gender Issues, Human Rights, Gender Based Violence, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
India, Asia, and Global Focus

30128. Right to a Future: Empowering refugees from Syria and host governments to face a long-term crisis

Author:
David Andres-Vinas, Daniel Gorevan, Martin Hartberg, Melissa Phillips, and Alexandra Saieh
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
With no end to the conflict in Syria in sight, the four million people forced to flee the country have no foreseeable prospect of safe return. And as the impact of the crisis on neighbouring countries grows and aid dries up, the situation for these refugees is becoming increasingly dire. This briefing calls for a new approach by the international community, including Syria's neighbours; one which offers hope, safety and dignity to the millions of refugees, and gives them a chance to contribute to the societies and economies of their hosts.
Topic:
Civil War, Refugee Issues, Refugee Crisis, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Middle East, Syria, and Global Focus

30129. Made in Myanmar: Entrenched poverty or decent jobs for garment workers?

Author:
Daisy Gardener and Jasmine Burnley
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
In Myanmar, the garment industry is booming thanks to an upsurge in investment by international brands, but garment workers are facing tough conditions. According to new research from Oxfam and labour rights groups in Myanmar, garment workers are working up to 11 hours a day, six days a week, but remain trapped in poverty. Following decades of economic isolation, political reforms have seen global retail heavyweights like GAP, H&M, Primark and Adidas starting to source from Myanmar factories. With the garment industry growing quickly, companies need to act now to ensure that workers making their products can access their fundamental rights and provide a decent living for themselves and their families. This briefing paper presents the research findings and makes recommendations for international sourcing companies and factories to help them protect garment workers' rights.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Investment, Clothing, and Garmet Industry
Political Geography:
Burma and Myanmar

30130. London 2030: How Will the Capital's Economy Change

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
London’s economy is growing strongly, easily outpacing both the UK and its nearest European rivals such as Paris and Frankfurt. Significant investments in public infrastructure, office buildings, retailing, and homes all point to widespread optimism that the growth will continue, not just for the next year or two but for many years to come. But how confident should we be about London’s growth trajectory? London 2030 analyses the trajectory and magnitude of change that is likely to confront London’s economy in the decade and a half from 2015 up to 2030. The study is the result of analysis by our specialist cities forecasting team, and provides unrivalled forecast data sets and in-depth analysis of what trends imply for the scale and structure of the capital’s economy over the next fifteen years, as well as assessment of other factors that might influence growth. The full research programme is now available for purchase, and is comprised of five research papers: - Our baseline forecasts for London’s economy, population growth and employment to 2030 - A forecast comparison between our data and The London Plan - Analysis of housing trends: will a shortage of housing constrain London’s growth? - Assessment of the impact of alternate scenarios, such as a Eurozone crisis, or a stronger performance -Possible drivers of change such as the impact of new technology, or the UK leaving the EU
Topic:
Economy, Economic Growth, and Investment
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and London

30131. Competitiveness - Catching the Next Wave: Africa

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
The pace of growth in sub-Saharan Africa could easily surpass most regions of the world. This report examines the industries with potential to fuel this growth and development over the next two decades, as well as central infrastructure and policy issues, focusing on South Africa, with additional analysis provided for Kenya and Nigeria.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Population, and Population Growth
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, South Africa, and Nigeria

30132. The Economic Impact of Huawei in the UK

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
In September 2012, Huawei commited to spending £1.3 billion in the UK. Almost three years later, the global information and communications leader is well on its way to doing just that—and with vast social and economic significance. In this report, Oxford Economics explores the contribution of Huawei to the UK economy over the three years 2012-2014, and assesses the company’s recent UK expenditure record over the five years 2013-2017, split equally between investment and procurement.
Topic:
Economics, Communications, and Investment
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

30133. Trade Winds: Shaping the Future of International Business

Author:
Scott Livermore
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
This report explores how international business has changed since HSBC first opened its doors in Hong Kong over 150 years—and what may come next. The objective of this study was to examine trade patterns in order to understand the historic drivers of globalisation and to help us to discover how those drivers could shape future patterns of trade. It aims to provide practical insight and considerations for the business leaders around the world.
Topic:
Globalization, Business, Trade, and International Business
Political Geography:
Global Focus

30134. Eurasian Economic Union and the Difficulties of Integration: The Case of South Ossetia and Abkhazia

Author:
Ivan Babin and Elizaveta Egorova
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Connections
Institution:
Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:
The Ukrainian crisis of 2013, followed by the annexation of Crimea, has redistributed the balance of power among the political players of the world arena. Moreover, since Putin’s return to the presidency in 2012, the concept of a shared neighborhood between the Russian Federation and the European Union (EU) becomes a strategic challenge not only for both but foremost for those post-Soviet republics struggling between two strategic decisions: to accept Russian protection or to choose Western development. The aim of this paper is to shed light on the forthcoming 2015 Eurasian Economic Union’s (EEU) economic and political perspectives, on South Ossetia and Abkhazia’s economic attractiveness, the sentiment inside those breakaway regions of Georgia and the Russian Federation standpoint in resolving or maintaining the situation in the disputed territories.
Topic:
Security, Imperialism, European Union, and Annexation
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Crimea

30135. Russia vs. EU/US through Georgia and Ukraine

Author:
David Matsaberidze
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Connections
Institution:
Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:
This paper aims to analyze the construction and transformation of the post-Soviet security perspectives of Georgia and Ukraine in the context of the post-Soviet Russian foreign policy in the “near abroad,” quite often termed the “legitimate sphere” of Russian influence by high-ranking Russian officials. This inquiry covers the panorama of the foreign policy in post-Soviet Russia across the FSU, from the early 1990s through to the present, where Georgia and Ukraine’s independent and pro-Western orientation are the main issues securitized for the Russian Federation. Accordingly, the maintenance of territorial integrity has become a security priority for Georgia since the early 1990s and will most likely be Ukraine’s top concern after the Crimean occupation by the Russian Federation in March 2014 and the subsequent developments in Eastern Ukraine. Therefore, it could be claimed that post-Soviet Russian and Georgian/Ukrainian security strategy (following peaceful revolutions) represent a zero-sum game.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Imperialism, Military Strategy, and European Union
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Georgia

30136. Restoring Trust between U.S. Companies and Their Government on Surveillance Issues

Author:
Mieke Eoyang and Chrissy Bishai
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Third Way
Abstract:
Allegations of intrusive U.S. government electronic surveillance activities have raised international outcry and created antagonism between U.S. technology companies and the government. Without a bold and enduring reform, American companies will continue to suffer a competitive disadvantage from perceptions of U.S. government intrusion into their data. We propose bringing electronic surveillance collection from U.S. companies into an existing statutory framework in order to reassure international customers and to respect the rights of U.S. companies operating abroad.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Surveillance, Big Tech, and Civil Liberties
Political Geography:
United States and North America

30137. Articles od Asphyxiation: Soft Censorship in Hungary

Author:
Mertek Media Monitor
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
CIMA and the World Association of Newspapers and News Publishers (WAN-IFRA) have been cooperating in a campaign to raise awareness around the world of the insidious practice known as “soft” (or indirect) censorship of news media. Soft censorship is used to promote positive coverage of officials or their actions–and to punish media outlets that criticize them. It is the practice of influencing news coverage of state bodies and officials and their policies and activities through allocation or withholding of state media spending (subsidies, advertising, and other media contracts), or selective application of licensing, permits, or regulations, to shape the broad media landscape; promote or diminish the economic viability of specific media houses or outlets; and reward or punish individual media workers.
Topic:
Media, Journalism, Censorship, and Freedom of Press
Political Geography:
Europe, Hungary, and Central Europe

30138. Media Reform Stalled in the Slow Lane: Soft Censorship in Serbia

Author:
Tanja Maksic
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
CIMA and the World Association of Newspapers and News Publishers (WAN-IFRA) have been cooperating in a campaign to raise awareness around the world of the insidious practice known as “soft” (or indirect) censorship of news media. Soft censorship is used to promote positive coverage of officials or their actions–and to punish media outlets that criticize them. It is the practice of influencing news coverage of state bodies and officials and their policies and activities through allocation or withholding of state media spending (subsidies, advertising, and other media contracts), or selective application of licensing, permits, or regulations, to shape the broad media landscape; promote or diminish the economic viability of specific media houses or outlets; and reward or punish individual media workers.
Topic:
Media, Journalism, Censorship, and Freedom of Press
Political Geography:
Europe and Serbia

30139. Breaking Promises, Blocking Reform: Soft Censorship in Mexico

Author:
Fundar Center for Analysis and Research
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
CIMA and the World Association of Newspapers and News Publishers (WAN-IFRA) have been cooperating in a campaign to raise awareness around the world of the insidious practice known as “soft” (or indirect) censorship of news media. Soft censorship is used to promote positive coverage of officials or their actions–and to punish media outlets that criticize them. It is the practice of influencing news coverage of state bodies and officials and their policies and activities through allocation or withholding of state media spending (subsidies, advertising, and other media contracts), or selective application of licensing, permits, or regulations, to shape the broad media landscape; promote or diminish the economic viability of specific media houses or outlets; and reward or punish individual media workers.
Topic:
Media, Journalism, The Press, Censorship, and Freedom of Press
Political Geography:
North America and Mexico

30140. Facing Up to the Democratic Recession

Author:
Larry Diamond
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Democracy
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
Democracy has been in a global recession for most of the last decade. Yet the picture is not entirely bleak. We have not seen “a third reverse wave.” The key imperative in the near term is to work to reform and consolidate the democracies that have emerged during the third wave—the majority of which remain illiberal and unstable, if they remain democratic at all. It is vital that democrats in the established democracies not lose faith. Democrats have the better set of ideas. Democracy may be receding somewhat in practice, but it is still globally ascendant in peoples’ values and aspirations.
Topic:
Global Recession, Democracy, and Political stability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

30141. The Myth of Democratic Recession

Author:
Steven Levitsky and Lucan A. Way
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Democracy
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
Contrary to widespread belief, there is no global “democratic recession.” Despite less favorable international conditions, levels of democracy in the world remained stable in the 2000s. Perceptions of democratic recession originate in excessive post–Cold War optimism, rooted in the successful democratizations of the 1980s. During the early 1990s, economic crisis, weakened states, and external pressure forced many autocrats to abandon power or tolerate opposition. These authoritarian crises were widely viewed as democratic transitions, even though most were not. Subsequent authoritarian (re)consolidation was thus perceived as democratic “backsliding.” Misplaced pessimism was reinforced by disappointment over non-democratization in China, the Middle East, and elsewhere, despite the fact that most remaining dictatorships existed amid highly unfavorable conditions for democratization.
Topic:
Democratization, Authoritarianism, Democracy, and Dictatorship
Political Geography:
Global Focus

30142. Is Democracy in Decline?

Author:
Marc F. Plattner
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Democracy
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
For 25 years, the Journal of Democracy has been “taking the temperature” of democracy around the globe. Here in our twenty-fifth anniversary issue, we feel compelled to confront head-on the question of whether democracy is in decline. Why? There are two aspects to the answer, which although intertwined are in some measure separable. The first deals with what is actually taking place on the ground: How many countries are democratic? Is their number rising or shrinking? What is the situation with respect to such liberal-democratic features as freedom of the press, rule of law, free and fair elections, and the like? The second, more subjective, aspect concerns the standing of democracy in the world: How is it viewed in terms of legitimacy and attractiveness? It is in this latter dimension that the evidence, or at least the widespread perception, of decline is most striking. Democracy’s supporters must undertake a clear-eyed appraisal of democracy’s current decline and summon the resolve and seriousness of purpose needed to reverse it.
Topic:
Democracy, Political stability, and Legitimacy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

30143. The Authoritarian Resurgence: Autocratic Legalism in Venezuela

Author:
Javier Corrales
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Democracy
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
This paper contributes to the literature on dynamics of hybrid regimes, i.e., whether these regimes stay stable, or instead, turn more democratic or more autocratic with time. Venezuela since the mid-2000s is an example of the latter. I first focus on how this happened in Venezuela. I posit that the turn toward greater authoritarianism occurred through autocratic legalism. This refers to the use, abuse, and disuse of the law to disempower veto players. I then focus on the “why” question. The main cause of Venezuela’s regime dynamics is a combination of external factors (increasing tolerance from abroad) and the ruling party’s declining electoral competitiveness at home and institutional path dependence.
Topic:
Democratization, Authoritarianism, Elections, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

30144. The Authoritarian Resurgence: Forward to the Past in Russia

Author:
Lilia Shevtsova
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Democracy
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
The Russian system of personalized power has demonstrated the ability to reproduce itself by both imitating and containing the West. In its quest for survival, the system has used foreign policy to a) compensate for the Kremlin’s diminishing resources, and b) contain the West’s impact inside and outside of Russia. The Kremlin’s continued experiments with new “technology” to prolong the system’s life include not only repression but also information warfare, as is seen in the development of a pro-Kremlin lobbyist network in the West to support the left-right “International.”
Topic:
Science and Technology, Authoritarianism, Conflict, and Disinformation
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and North America

30145. Authoritarianism Goes Global: Countering Democratic Norms

Author:
Alexander Cooley
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Democracy
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
Over the past decade, the international backlash against liberal democracy has grown and gathered momentum. Authoritarians have experimented with and refined a number of new tools, practices, and institutions that are meant to shield their regimes from external criticism and to erode the norms that inform and underlie the liberal international political order. These global political changes and systemic shifts have produced new counternorms that privilege state security, civilizational diversity, and traditional values over liberal democracy. The effects of these changes are most visible in the narrower political space that nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are facing, the shifting purposes that regional organizations are embracing, and the rising influence of non-Western powers as international patrons.
Topic:
Security, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Diversity, and NGOs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

30146. Rwanda: Progress or Powder Keg?

Author:
Filip Reyntjens
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Democracy
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
While post-genocide Rwanda’s decent technocratic governance has led to strong economic recovery and good public service provision, its political governance is deeply flawed and may destroy these achievements. The ruling RPF has solidly established hegemony by eliminating the political opposition and autonomous civil society, massively violating human rights, and killing well over hundred thousand of its own citizens, abusing the legal and justice systems, and deploying skillful information management. This article addresses the way in which this hegemonic project was conducted, how this relates to regime achievements in the economic sphere, and how tradeoffs between political and technocratic governance have kept the international community at bay.
Topic:
Civil Society, Governance, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
Africa and Rwanda

30147. Europe and Azerbaijan: The End of Shame

Author:
Gerald Knaus
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Democracy
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
The autocratic regime of President Ilham Aliyev in Azerbaijan has managed to steal the soul of Europe’s most important human rights institution, the Council of Europe. This article reveals Azerbaijan’s hidden agenda to neutralize the “naming and shaming” strategy of the international human-rights movement, build influence through “caviar diplomacy,” and unleash a wave of repression against human-rights defenders. For the Council of Europe, whose function is to defend the European Convention of Human Rights, to align itself with a regime jailing human-rights activists is unprecedented and deeply disturbing. As the space for human-rights organizations to operate is shrinking in many parts of the world today, the capture of the Council of Europe sends a warning to all supporters of human rights, and not only in Europe.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Human Rights, United Nations, and NGOs
Political Geography:
Europe, Central Asia, Caucasus, Asia, and Azerbaijan

30148. After the Arab Spring: How the Media Trashed the Transitions

Author:
Marc Lynch
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Democracy
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
The media played a key role in mobilizing the Arab uprisings of 2010-11, but played a far more negative role in the transitions which ensued. Rather than constituting new public spheres for the negotiation of new identities and institutions, or acting as watchdogs on the emergent regimes, the media in most Arab states contributed to social polarization, popular discontent, and the resurgence of old regimes. While the potentially destructive role of media can be found in all attempted democratic transitions, the Arab cases had several unique characteristics, including the prominent role of transnational broadcasting, the new social media environment, and divisive questions about Islamist movements. This article traces the role of the media in the Arab transitions across three distinct levels: transnational broadcasting, domestic public and private broadcasting, and social media. All three played destructive roles, with transnational television becoming a weapon for proxy wars by regional powers, national media being captured by old elites and private interests, and social media encouraging polarization and informational clustering. Very similar patterns emerge in Egypt and Tunisia, the two key potential democratic transitions following the Arab uprisings.
Topic:
Social Movement, Media, Arab Spring, Propaganda, and The Press
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Tunisia, and Egypt

30149. Authoritarianism Goes Global (II): The Leninist Roots of Civil Society Repression

Author:
Anne Applebaum
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Democracy
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
In the early part of the twentieth century, the small group of revolutionaries who became the Russian Bolsheviks developed an alternative theory of civil society. Burke, Tocqueville, and even Russian intellectuals believed that civil society was fundamental to democracy; Lenin believed that the destruction of civil society was crucial to totalitarian dictatorship. But by attempting to control every aspect of society, totalitarian regimes would eventually turn every aspect of society into a potential source of dissent, as in the cases of Czechoslovakia and Poland. Yet in many other societies heavily influenced by Soviet ideology—those in Belarus, Central Asia, China, Cuba, parts of Africa, and much of the Arab world—those in power remain attached to the old Bolshevik idea that independent civic institutions are a threat to the state.
Topic:
Civil Society, Authoritarianism, Media, Repression, and Dictatorship
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Europe, Central Asia, Middle East, Asia, Cuba, North America, and Belarus

30150. The Rise of the World’s Poorest Countries

Author:
Steven Radelet
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Democracy
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
For more than two decades now, the majority of the world’s poorest countries have been making some of the fastest and biggest development gains in history. The momentous progress achieved since the early 1990s is unprecedented. One-billion people have been lifted out of extreme poverty, the child death rate has been cut in half, life expectancy has increased significantly, millions more girls are enrolled in school, deaths in civil wars have dropped by three-quarters, average incomes have almost doubled, food production has increased by half, and democracy has spread like never before in the world’s poorest countries, notwithstanding with many setbacks, obstacles, and imperfections along the way. Some of these gains—especially the declines in poverty and child mortality—rank among the greatest achievements in human history. Yet few people are aware that this progress is even happening.
Topic:
Poverty, Economic Inequality, Mortality, and Quality of Life
Political Geography:
Global Focus