Publication Year: within 10 Years

30051. The Caliphate’s Global Workforce: An Inside Look at the Islamic State’s Foreign Fighter Paper Trail

Author:: Brian Dodwell, Daniel Milton, and Don Rassler
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: This report contains an analysis of over 4,600 unique Islamic State personnel records that were produced by the group primarily between early 2013 and late 2014. The importance of this data for understanding the Islamic State and, in particular, the foreign fighter flow, cannot be overstated. To put it simply, it is the largest cache of primary source documents produced by the Islamic State available in the open-source as of this date. These particular documents were acquired by NBC News from an Islamic State defector and subsequently provided to the CTC (and other entities). This report provides a window into the organization’s global workforce, revealing information about foreign fighters’ countries of origin, citizenship, points of entry into Syria, marital status, skills and previous occupations, education levels, religious knowledge, fighting role preferences in the group, and previous jihadist experience. In addition to analyzing the data at the macro-level, the report also highlights numerous anecdotes of individual fighters. Taken together, the analysis in this report reveals an organization that is attempting to vet new members, manage talent effectively within the organization, and deal with an incredibly diverse pool of recruits.
Topic:: Terrorism, Radicalization, Islamic State, Recruitment, and Foreign Fighters
Political Geography:: Iraq, Europe, South Asia, Central Asia, Middle East, East Asia, Syria, and Southeast Asia

30052. Doku Umarov, Founder of the Caucasus Emirate: From Secularism to Jihadism (Jihadi Bios Project)

Author:: Michael Fredholm
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: The CTC is pleased to launch the publication of papers as part of a series devoted to the study of jihadist biographies. The purpose of this project is to contribute to the knowledge of the evolution of the jihadist landscape by exploring it through the lens of the worldviews and experiences of actors who have shaped it. While some states and organizations, wittingly or unwittingly, contributed to the growth of the jihadist enterprise, it may be argued that modern jihadism, as it continues to unfold, is also the product of individuals, who made it into the global phenomenon that it is. As we study the biographies of jihadis, we are faced with a world crowded with different and differing worldviews. Beneath the banner of jihad that seemingly unites jihadis worldwide is a world marked not just by cooperation between groups and individuals, but also by competition and divisions. Some of the jihadis who occupy that world are characterized by a commitment to idealistic goals, by acumen, skills, and agility; others are driven by sectarianism, criminal disposition, and opportunism; while others manifest an odd combination of all. That is why the actions emanating from the jihadist landscape are the results of an amalgam of strategy, sophisticated planning and targeting, randomness, and juvenile enthusiasm. It is for these reasons and more that the complexity of the jihadist landscape requires different layers of analyses and a rigorous and patient approach to the subject. In short, the study of jihadism is about both the “forest” and the “trees;” and this series of biographies is a study of the “trees” as they are situated in the broader “forest.”
Topic:: Terrorism, Secularism, Jihad, and Biography
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

30053. Communication Breakdown: Unraveling the Islamic State’s Media Efforts

Author:: Daniel Hamilton
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: This report breaks down the Islamic State’s media activities through a two-fold approach. First, it examines a small number of declassified documents captured from the group’s predecessors to provide a baseline understanding its present-day media structure and operations. Second, through an examination of over 9,000 Islamic State official media products, this report offers detailed insight into what the group is saying and what a study of its propaganda can tell us about its strengths, weaknesses, and struggles. A number of findings emerge from these analyses. First, the Islamic State’s media network is adaptive and complex. Second, the group publishes products on a variety of themes, only one of which has to do with the violence for which the group is so well-known. Third, the frequency of the group’s products has declined significantly since its highpoint in the summer of 2015. Fourth, the Islamic State’s provincial media bureaus are not all equal in terms of their production content. Finally, although advances have been made in limiting the group’s media activities, there is still more than can be done to limit the group’s outreach efforts.
Topic:: Terrorism, Communications, Radicalization, Media, and Islamic State
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

30054. Remotely Piloted Innovation: Terrorism, Drones and Supportive Technology

Author:: Don Rassler
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: In early October 2016, the group that calls itself the Islamic State killed two Kurdish soldiers with an explosive device hidden inside a drone. While terrorist groups have long had a fascination with drones and experimented with their use, the incident was a first for a terror group, and it potentially represents the leading edge of a wave of similar incidents that could follow in the months, years and decades ahead. Much has been made of the threat of terror use of drones, but little empirical and historical work has been done to support our understanding of this phenomenon and its evolution. This report seeks to address this gap by providing a review of, and framework to situate, cases in which terrorist entities have either shown a substantive interest in drones or have used them. It evaluates both individual use cases and the activity of groups that have used drones frequently enough to constitute their having a “program.” These cases are then complemented by a review of the creative ways that private citizens have used drones, in order to provide decisionmakers with a firmer baseline of both demonstrated terror capability and what lies within the immediate realm of possibility, given what has already been achieved by others. This report also includes an overview of new technologies that are likely to further complicate the scope of this developing threat.
Topic:: Terrorism, Al Qaeda, Drones, and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)
Political Geography:: Europe, South Asia, Middle East, Asia, and Colombia

30055. Structural Change in Wage Differentiation Patterns for Turkey in Terms of Working in the Same Industry

Author:: Bengi Yanık İlhan
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:: Altinbas University
Abstract:: This paper investigates the wage differentiation patterns in Turkey between couples who work in the same industry and those who work in different industries. The Turkish Household Labor Force Surveys from 2004 to 2014 are utilized as the main data. As the graphical representation verifies, regions can be grouped into three with respect to wave differentiation. In the first group, differentiation gap remains the same; for the second group, the gap increases; and for the last group, while the gap first decreases and disappears, it then increases again in favor of who the ones who work in the same industry. These findings are valid not only for females' but also males' mean hourly income. In the empirical analyses, the squared wage differences are clustered into three categories by using K-Means clustering method. Then, the behavior of each region changing from one cluster to the other are tracked and calculated with variations of this behavior. It is examined that not only eastern regions but also northern and landlocked regions changed their clusters during the last decade. In addition to that, their calculated variation of this behavior is higher compared to the ones for western, southern and seaside regions. If the variation is higher for the region, this is probably due to structural changes in those regions.
Topic:: Economics, Industry, Wage Income, and K-Means Clustering
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

30056. Forced population movements as a current ethical dilemma and the possibilities of collective action

Author:: C. Akça Ataç
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:: Altinbas University
Abstract:: The spirit of our times has been increasingly determined by refugee crisis and asylum institutions. If one could read the ongoing economic, political, environmental and demographic crises correctly, a refugee crisis would not have been treated as unexpected, unfortunate singular coincidence. A comprehensive, non-proscriptive approach with a collective, multilevel engagement must urgently be generated by the international community to create an all-encompassing legal consciousness. This paper seeks to delve into the question of the current refugee crisis from an historical point of view and recount the progress of the international refugee regime. In doing that it will also discuss the possibility of the launch of a collective action by the international community in the present. Refugee history is not progressive; it has not linearly proceeded towards comprehensive solutions. There are ruptures, retreats, changes of attitude -from positive to negative, from negative to inaction. Despite the growing global governance with the participation of international and non-governmental organizations, states are still the major actors in the refugee regime. The dominant role of the states in managing the refugee crisis creates an ethical dilemma, as is the case in every normative context state is involved. This paper, therefore, will finally assess the ethical dilemma unveiled by the recent EU-Turkey refugee deal.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, Population, European Union, Refugees, and Asylum
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

30057. The Problematic of Savings: The Case of Turkey as an Emerging Market Economy

Author:: Emre Alkin
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:: Altinbas University
Abstract:: This study provides an analysis on the course of private savings in Turkish economy, which are considered to be the primary source of sustainable growth and development. It also discusses the way how growth model adopted by Turkey regulates the relationship between Public Expenditure, Taxes and Private Savings. Based on the results obtained from this analysis, it has been concluded that ever expanding public sector has a negative impact on private savings. As a long term solution, modifying or replacing the current growth model has been ofered. As a short term ofer, there is need to regulate the revenues and expenditures of all public institutions including the Central Government Budget with the support of the legislative authorities to eliminate the negative impact in question.
Topic:: Markets, Budget, Economy, Economic Growth, Tax Systems, Investment, and Public Spending
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

30058. The Impact of Print Media on Popular Culture: Umberto Eco’s Number Zero

Author:: Fatma Altınbaş Sarıgül
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:: Altinbas University
Abstract:: In the book published by Umberto Eco in 2015 called Numero Zero (Number Zero), on the basis of the assumption that the newspapers are able to establish various perceptions to the public in a conscious way, he has examined what kind of interventions some popular newspaper bosses have realized for the purpose of increasing their efciencies in the business world within the frame of a fction. According to Eco; popular culture is not in a sudden and unexpected structure (at least from its appearance) as it is in the cultural understanding of the modernism. By also taking the likes and demands of the wide masses it desires to be expanded into consideration, it aims a consensus between the culture producers and the culture consumers. In this way, it provides an easier and faster acceptance of the messages it sends by the masses. However, the motivation of the culture producers has derived from the market economy. The aimed thing is “proft”. Popular newspapers infict, transform and even make up the news in the cause of this proft. Eco operates by which methods the newspapers perform these destructions and reveals their tactics that direct the readers to certain assumptions with the quibbles. He tries to decipher the codes of the common popular perception delivered to the readers. According to Eco, “newspapers teach people how they should think; unfortunately, all we learn is fake and deformed”. Popular culture consists of a reference made by the fake that is replacing the truth to itself as mentioned in the simulation theory of Baudrillard, not a reality away from itself.
Topic:: Media, Umberto Eco, Popular Culture, and Newspapers
Political Geography:: Global Focus

30059. Hard Power versus Soft Power or a Balance between the Two?

Author:: Peter Volten
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: Many things have changed in Turkey within the last decade, but also in Brussels as to the political practises. This commentary seeks to answer whether Turkey and the EU can find and maintain a sensible balance between toughness and empathy, between considerations of hard power and soft power. Turkey is obviously an essential, regional player both economically and militarily. Geopolitics may not appear high on the agenda of the EU, but the situation in the Middle-East simply could not and cannot be ignored as a geopolitical challenge, one that might beg for acting in concert with Turkey. On the other side, Europe represents an attraction and example based on a long history and struggle for material wealth, technological and scientific progress as well as for the accomplished degree of democracy and the rule of law. More recently, however, EU soft power suffers a number of setbacks. We disown our most basic values of soft power and will lose impact in promoting a just, democratic order in the world. If the EU and its member states fail to recover from this set-back, we risk to fall back in the hard power game, also with potential and aspiring states.
Topic:: Politics, European Union, Democracy, Geopolitics, Rule of Law, and Soft Power
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

30060. Why Does The International Drug-Control System Fail?

Author:: Behsat Ekici
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: The international community has been building a drug-control system for over a century. The UN-led initiatives drafted very detailed conventions, political declarations, and plans of action. International institutions and governments have been allocating vast resources for national, regional, and global counter narcotics initiatives. Law-enforcement agents, judicial officers, diplomats, and demand-reduction experts devote enormous efforts to global drug-control efforts. However, the latest field studies clearly indicate that the global war on drugs has been lost on virtually every front. Drug consumption and drugrelated deaths have increased over the past three decades. Every year, many new psychoactive substances appear on the market. Precursor chemicals are not efficiently controlled. The drug supply consistently shifts to areas where law enforcement is weak and corrupt. Drug money has allowed the dark networks to exert an increasing influence on the governments in Latin America, Southwest Asia, Central Asia, Eastern Europe, and West Africa. The drug trade undermines global security by financing terrorism and insurgency. In this context, the United Nations’ goal of a “drug-free world” is far from being reached. This paper provides an insight as to why the international efforts to control the drug supply, drug demand, and drug-driven money have failed dramatically.
Topic:: Crime, United Nations, Narcotics Trafficking, International Community, Drugs, and International Crime
Political Geography:: Global Focus

30061. Violence and Security Concerns in Post-Conflict Northern Ireland

Author:: Imren Borsuk
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: Eighteen years after the Good Friday Agreement, Northern Ireland struggles with a lingering sense of insecurity. This article discusses the underlying reasons for a sense of insecurity and vulnerability in this post-conflict context. First, ongoing sporadic communal violence reactivates communal divisions and the psychological burden of “the Troubles.” The activities of spoiler paramilitary groups and sporadic communal troubles still fuel people’s anxiety about the possibility of renewed violence, as the history of political violence proves how these influences can be a destabilizing factor in inter-communal relations. Second, the unchanging patterns of political mobilization, based on the historical division of unionism and nationalism, reinforce the previous cleavages and continue to inform the boundaries of the communal divide. The political arena is still plagued by ethnic outbidding and intransigent party politicking, both of which pit communities against each other and keep the zero-sum bias between the groups alive. Third, the working-class communities that constituted the backbone of the political violence carry on the legacy of war with their continued paramilitary presence and legacy of sectarianism. The social vulnerabilities of working-class areas, such as continuing paramilitary presence, the legacy of sectarianism in segregated neighborhoods, persistent mistrust toward the police, and growing youth unemployment, need to be addressed in order to generate a long-term social infrastructure for peace.
Topic:: Security, Violence, and Post-Conflict
Political Geography:: Northern Ireland

30062. Reconciliation-oriented Leadership: Nelson Mandela and South Africa

Author:: Havva Kök Arslan and Yunus Turhan
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: Heroic leaders advocating for reconciliation has become particularly significant in the process of conflict resolution. This article analyses the case of South Africa’s national reconciliation experiences and Mandela’s iconic role in this process. It is claimed that Mandela’s reconciliation-oriented leadership, his personality, and endeavours have directly affected the promotion of intergroup reconciliation in South Africa in a positive way. The article’s analytic framework is built on Galtung’s Conflict Triangle and applied to reconciliation initiatives employed by Nelson Mandela in South Africa. The research question that this study focused on can be expressed as follows: What is the role of leaders in the process of national reconciliation? From this perspective, Mandela’s extraordinary efforts to strengthen national reconciliation in South Africa are examined by looking into his normative statements, symbolic acts, and judicial actions. The method proposed in this article contributes to the study of reconciliation at the national level, dealing with the normative statements and behaviours of those in power. In the final analysis, it was determined that there is a close relationship between the prospective success of the reconciliation process and a leader’s contribution to bringing about reconciliation in a society
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Leadership, Reconciliation, and Nelson Mandela
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

30063. The Paradox of Power Asymmetry: When and Why Do Weaker States Challenge US Hegemony?

Author:: Hong-Cheol Kim
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: Little is known about how, among weaker states, incentives to challenge the status quo are related to the expected response of the US as the system’s hegemon. In contrast to conventional wisdom that suggests militarized punishment can deter potential challengers, it is argued that weak but strongly motivated challengers can interpret the hegemon’s military intervention against adversaries as a window of opportunity to launch their own actions. Empirical results using Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) and binary time-seriescross-section (BTSCS) models reveal that weaker states possess incentives to challenge the international status quo when the hegemon is preoccupied with prior foreign policy commitments, most notably war. In other words, weaker states dissatisfied with the status quo are more likely to challenge the hegemon when it is preoccupied with prior military commitments. They do so because war involvement distracts the hegemon, drains its capabilities and resolve, and opens up a window of opportunity for weaker states to issue challenges. In addition, weaker states that have an alliance portfolio dissimilar to that of the hegemon are more likely than others to initiate Militarized Interstate Disputes. Theoretically, this paper provides microfoundations to answer the question of why weaker parties instigate asymmetric conflicts when it might seem irrational to do so.
Topic:: International Relations, Hegemony, Conflict, Power, and Asymmetric Relations
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

30064. Conflict Resolution Revisited: Peaceful Resolution, Mediation and Responsibility to Protect

Author:: Seán O'Regan
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: Alan Tidwell, the author of Conflict Resolved? A Critical Assessment of Conflict Resolution,[1] wrote in the preface “Not all conflicts can or should be resolved; frankly there are some conflicts I do not wish to resolve – I want to win them.”[2] This is a real challenge to every person who aspires to be a peacemaker, and challenges, as Tidwell intended, the notion of peace at whatever cost. Tidwell argues that that while morally inspired positive peacemaking is a “good thing,”[3] it can lack a sense of proportion, ignoring justice, right and wrong and deep-seated reasons for grievance. Similarly, evangelical theorists “propagate the value of conflict resolution at all costs”[4] and in the process lose a sense of reality about what can realistically be achieved. The increased adoption by states of early warning, conflict prevention and conflict resolution policies is often based on notions of positive peacemaking and inspired by evangelical theorists. Latterly mediation has been added to the arsenal of state-led conflict resolution tools. This commentary will explore the limitations of mediation in relations between states, consider the implications for conflict resolution practice and advocate a principled international response to conflicts, including, if necessary, the need to win them.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Mediation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

30065. Intelligence Cooperation in the European Union: An Impossible Dream?

Author:: Şeniz Bilgi
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: There has been a shift in the intelligence and security strategies of the states since 9/11. The attacks created a new security environment in which intelligence has become increasingly significant. Not only have the responsibilities and tasks of intelligence agencies become more important, but the necessity for intelligence and security service cooperation among nations has also increased. Accordingly, intelligence agencies had to update their strategies to put more emphasis on collaboration. This article analyzes the current EU intelligence network and tries to answer whether full intelligence cooperation in the EU could develop into a discrete organization in the aftermath of 2004 Madrid, 2005 London and the 7 January 2015 Charlie Hebdo attacks, or whether it is an impossible dream to have concerted action whereby states acknowledge their mutual alliances, interests, and strategies.
Topic:: Intelligence, International Cooperation, Terrorism, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe

30066. The Moroccan Monarchy and the Islam-oriented PJD: Pragmatic Cohabitation and the Need for Islamic Political Secularism

Author:: Abdellatif Hissouf
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: This paper aims to analyze the political relationship between the Moroccan monarchy and the moderate Islam-oriented Party of Justice and Development (PJD), which has been in power since 2011. The research methodology involves an in-depth case analysis and relies on a substantial number of primary and secondary sources such as official speeches, official political statements, journal articles and newspapers. The study finds the relationship between the PJD and the monarchy inconsistent, similar to the PJD’s relationship with other political parties. The paper argues that adopting an approach based on an Islamic political secularism that considers Morocco’s specific political realities may ease tension between the PJD on the one hand and the monarchy and other parties on the other
Topic:: Islam, Politics, Secularism, Political Parties, and Political Islam
Political Geography:: North Africa and Morocco

30067. Peace Education as a Post-conflict Peacebuilding Tool

Author:: Vanessa Tinker
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: This article provides a critical analysis of the literature and reports on peace education programmes in countries emerging from violent conflicts. First, it begins with an overview of peace education’s history. Next, it examines how peace education has been conceptualised, and highlights why it remains poorly defined. The article then proceeds by looking at the development of the international community’s use of peace education as a tool to contribute to their peacebuilding efforts in countries emerging from protracted contexts. After that, it reviews the research and evaluation work that has been done on peace education programmes. The article concludes with a survey of peace education programmes in ethnically/religiously linked post-conflict environments that have made mainstreaming their goal, and identifies areas of future research.
Topic:: Education, Reconstruction, Peace, Post-Conflict, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Global Focus

30068. Peace Education: Training for an Evolved Consciousness of Non-violence

Author:: Alev Yemenici
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: This paper aims to present a preliminary, brain-based model of peace education. In addition to subjects that current peace education models emphasize such as human rights education, environmental education and conflict resolution education, this model aims to introduce another level, namely the cellular level, at which neurobiological causes of violence and its early prevention can be addressed. Specifically, the model advocates dissemination of information on neurobiological causes and prevention of violence, and the impact of early trauma on the developing brain during the pre-natal, birth, and postnatal periods. These early periods are when a foundation of love chemicals or chemicals of violence is established and the fundamental brain architecture is laid down. In other words, through the education of children, adolescents, and adults, the model opens up a cellular dimension where violence can be prevented.
Topic:: Education, Trauma, Peace, Nonviolence, and Empowerment
Political Geography:: Global Focus

30069. The Economy of Azerbaijan in 2015: Independent View

Author:: CESD Research Team
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:: In 2015, the expansion of the US economy accompanied with improved employment rates led the FED to switch to contractionary monetary policy. On the other hand, the second largest economic power-China encountered a lower long-term economic growth rate with a fall in exports, and thereby adversely affecting global economic activity. Moreover, the rapid decline of prices in global fuel markets, owing to fundamental and political reasons, resulted in an economic downturn in countries reliant on their fuel exports, while importers experienced a higher economic activity in parallel with lower inflation expectations. Since the monetary and economic policies were originally anchored to the oil price of 90 USD, the average of 53.4 USD resulted in an economic imbalance, and ultimately leading to the second sharp devaluation at the end of the year (21.12.2015). That is to say, the Central Bank could no longer pursue the fixed exchange rate regime, and switched to the floating regime.
Topic:: Economics, Monetary Policy, Economy, and Currency
Political Geography:: Azerbaijan and South Caucasus

30070. The response of Turkey and Russia after Jet Crisis and the implications for the South Caucasus

Author:: Cristina Juan Carrion, Gulnara Abbas, and Ibrahim Ibrahimov
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:: In 2016 and years thereafter, the economies of Turkey and Russia will experience considerable change due to sanctions imposed by the Russian government as a response to the downing of a Russian warplane in November 2015.The dissolution of Russian-Turkish ties has also affected neighboring regions, especially the South Caucasus. As a result, there will be a transformation in economic, political, demographical and social trends. The sectors of agriculture, energy and especially tourism will face tremendous changes with the performance of new key players.
Topic:: Agriculture, Energy Policy, Migration, Labor Issues, Tourism, Sanctions, Economy, and Transportation
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Turkey, Middle East, and South Caucasus

30071. Turkish Cypriots Want a Secure Future

Author:: Mensur Akgün, Sylvia Tiryaki, and Muhammed Ammash
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:: Presidents Nikos Anastasiades and Mustafa Akinci paved the way to rekindle the resolution process which had gone amiss on the Island over the years. Despite their inherent different political ideologies, both men were convinced of the potency of settlement; as such they worked in preparation of their societies towards the resolution. The public opinion polls conducted on the Island captures an important detail; thus, a considerable majority of the Turkish Cypriot society is unready for the eventual settlement of the Cyprus question irrespective of their leaders’ goodwill. There are two main issues essential for a concrete future resolution plan-‘security and property’. Views on the protection of the bicommunality and other expectations are equally important alongside other issues that were mentioned by the Turkish Cypriots that we conducted interviews with. The concerns raised essentially focus on the security issue. The Turkish Cypriots’ desire to live in security both politically and economically post-unification.
Topic:: Economics, Politics, Territorial Disputes, and Dialogue
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Cyprus, and Mediterranean

30072. State Legitimacy, Fragile States, and U.S. National Security

Author:: CAP National Security and International Policy
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: The continued growth of powerful transnational challenges poses grave and persis- tent threats to the security and well-being of the United States. America’s approach needs to be updated to include new foreign policy tools and new approaches. The heart of the new foundation for U.S. foreign policy should be an investment in the efforts of nations at risk of collapsing and unleashing global threats to build legitimacy and to escape the trap of repression followed by upheaval. International Compacts for Governance, Prosperity, and Security could transform how the international community works in partnership with fragile states to improve their legitimacy and security over time. The United States will need the political will and leadership to support steady, long-term, and carefully designed investments in fragile states. This will also require rebalancing U.S. foreign policy resources toward development, diplomacy, economic statecraft, and justice sector reform, while maintaining the world’s most powerful military. All of these tools are required to move from a focus on countering terrorism to a focus on defeating extremism and enabling other nations to build the legitimacy they need themselves. This is the strategy that will most effectively and sustainably ensure America’s national security—and, indeed, global security as well.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, National Security, Reform, and transnationalism
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

30073. The Process Behind Turkey’s Proposed Extradition of Fethullah Gülen

Author:: Michael Werz and Max Hoffman
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: It is hard to overstate the gravity of what happened in Turkey during the failed July 15 coup attempt. More than 270 people were killed and thousands wounded in clashes related to the attempted overthrow of the elected government. Tanks and armored vehicles rumbled through the streets of Istanbul and Ankara; soldiers fired into civilian crowds; and rogue F-16 jets and military helicopters bombed and strafed targets in Ankara, including the parliament, the intelligence ministry, and the presidential palace. This litany of atrocities is now familiar to those covering Turkey but should provoke no less soul-searching. There has been a troubling tendency in some Western quarters to respond glibly to Turkey’s trauma, but it is worth considering how the United States government and public would react in the wake of such a crisis. The outpouring of anger and emotion from Turks of all political backgrounds is natural. Without question, those behind the coup attempt must be brought to justice and face trial. As the coup attempt unfolded through the night of July 15, Turkish officials quickly pointed to Fethullah Gülen and his followers—generally referred to collectively as Gülenists or the Hizmet movement—as the driving force behind the overthrow plot. Gülen, an Islamic scholar and U.S. permanent resident, has been living in a compound in rural Pennsylvania since his self-imposed exile from Turkey in 1999, granting few interviews and rarely seeing outside visitors. Gülen’s movement has set up schools in hundreds of countries—including the United States—and established cultural exchange programs, business associations, and media outlets. The exact personal relationship of Gülen to many of these bodies and his degree of direct control over them is not clear. Gülen and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan are former political allies, and members of the Gülen movement helped populate the state bureaucracy following the 2002 election victory of the ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP. For a decade, the AKP and the Gülenists cooperated and, indeed, the movement was an integral part of the burgeoning AKP political, media, academic, and business establishment. The alliance helped both the AKP and the Gülen movement, allowing them to erode the control of traditional military and secular elites in Turkey; there is strong evidence that Gülenists in the police and judiciary collaborated with the AKP government to purge military officers and secular rivals in two massive—and manufactured—cases against supposed coup plotters in 2008 and 2010. But Gülenist prosecutors turned on the AKP in December 2013, opening major corruption cases against senior party leaders and their families. Gülenists are believed to have leaked—or, Erdoğan supporters say, manufactured—tapes implicating Erdoğan and his family in widespread corruption, possibly in a bid to swing upcoming elections. Erdoğan and the AKP decried the corruption cases as a coup attempt and declared open political war with the Gülen movement, seizing businesses and closing media outlets and schools associated with the movement. The Turkish demand for Gülen’s extradition, then, is not new and is part of a long-running political fight. But Turkish officials and the public are absolutely convinced of Gülen’s personal complicity in the coup attempt, and the request for his extradition is a primary element of Turkey’s response to the crisis. Despite the gravity of the wider issues surrounding the coup attempt for Turkish politics and society, this brief is primarily focused on the narrower question of Gülen’s potential extradition, the process by which such extraditions are pursued under the treaty between Turkey and the United States that governs extradition, and the political ramifications for U.S. policy and relations with Turkey.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Authoritarianism, Coup, Judiciary, and Extradition
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Asia

30074. The Economic Impacts of Removing Unauthorized Immigrant Workers

Author:: Ryan Edwards and Francesc Ortega
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: In every state and in every industry across the United States, immigrants—authorized and unauthorized—are contributing to the U.S. economy. Immigrant labor and entrepreneurship are believed to be powerful forces of economic revitalization for communities struggling with population decline. Estimates suggest that the total number of unauthorized immigrants currently residing in the United States is approximately 11.3 million, or about 3.5 percent of the total 2015 resident population of 324.4 million. Of those 11.3 million, we estimate that 7 million are workers. What is the economic contribution of these unauthorized workers? What would the nation stand to lose in terms of production and income if these workers were removed and returned to their home countries?
Topic:: Economics, Migration, Labor Issues, Border Control, and Immigrants
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

30075. Avoiding a Full Arctic Meltdown

Author:: Cathleen Kelly and Kelsey Schober
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: Supplied with new evidence of accelerating Arctic warming and approaching environmental tipping points, the Obama administration will convene science ministers from around the world in September to assess the rate and consequences of Arctic climate change and weigh global strategies for averting its worst effects. This first-ever White House Arctic Science Ministerial—which will include top science advisers, high-level officials, and Arctic indigenous community leaders—coincides roughly with the one-year anniversary of President Barack Obama’s 2015 Alaskan Arctic trip. After his historic visit to the High North, President Obama told Vogue, “The looming crisis in the Alaska Arctic is a tangible preview of the looming crisis of the global condition.” The president is right to worry. The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet, setting off a cascade of dangerous changes at the top of the world that include vanishing Arctic snow and ice, thawing permafrost, and melting of the Greenland ice sheet. These changes risk triggering irreversible tipping points with perilous side effects, such as unmanageable sea-level rise and coastal flooding, more frequent extreme weather, and increased warming and carbon emissions. These changes threaten the well-being of people around the globe.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, International Cooperation, Science and Technology, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Arctic

30076. Recalibrating U.S.-China Relations in Southeast Asia

Author:: Vikram Singh, Yuan Peng, Melanie Hart, Brian Harding, Zhang Xuegang, Chen Wenxin, and Zhang Fan
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: The Center for American Progress and the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, or CICIR, have partnered often over the years, working regularly on areas of cooperation between China and the United States and on options for managing areas of competition and tension. Together, CAP and CICIR have held or participated in many conferences, workshops, and symposiums that bring together Chinese and U.S. officials and scholars; we have worked on joint publications; and we believe that we have helped enable substantial cooperation between the United States and China. Mistrust complicates U.S.-China relations and can obscure areas where cooperation might be possible and beneficial. Negative dynamics also obscure from others the depth of U.S.-China cooperation in a wide range of areas. In this report, we try to cut through these dynamics and offer new options. In 2014, CAP and CICIR began to discuss how U.S.-China tensions might be obscuring areas of mutual interest in Southeast Asia, a region of tremendous importance strategically and economically to the entire region and the world. Prior to this project, in our respective organizations, the people who work on Southeast Asia did not work closely with colleagues working on U.S.-China bilateral relations. In most cases, our bilateral experts had spent little or no time in Southeast Asia, yet the tensions at play in the region featured prominently in their day-to-day work. Both the United States and China, meanwhile, were making investments and building new partnerships with Southeast Asian countries. Was Southeast Asia to be an arena of competition for China and the United States, or could there be areas of cooperation with members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, that brought benefit to all? The potential for research by our teams with Southeast Asian counterparts was clear. It was our friend and colleague Nina Hachigian who proposed the concept that would make this a groundbreaking project. Now the U.S. ambassador to ASEAN, Hachigian is a diplomat and scholar of rare skill and creativity. She noted that CAP and CICIR could only do productive work in this area by doing two things: First, the organizations needed to join their stovepiped research teams into a single group with expertise on both Southeast Asia and U.S.-China relations. Second, CAP and CICIR had to partner with scholars in the region who study the United States, China, and ASEAN. And rather than holding a conference, why not travel through the region with local hosts?
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

30077. Violence and Peace

Author:: Trevor Sutton
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: One of the most profound developments in international affairs since the end of the Cold War has been the rise of a global accountability movement that seeks to hold political authorities responsible for abuses inflicted on their own citizens and those of neighboring countries.1 During the decades between the Nuremberg and Tokyo War Crimes tribunals of the late 1940s and the collapse of the Soviet Union, the world’s great powers demonstrated little interest in establishing international justice mechanisms to redress gross human rights abuses.2 That changed in 1993, however, when the United Nations passed a resolution establishing the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia, or ICTY.3 The decade that followed saw the creation of supranational tribunals to try the perpetrators of atrocities in Rwanda, Sierra Leone, East Timor, and Cambodia, and also the founding of an International Criminal Court, or ICC, whose jurisdiction has been recognized by more than 120 nations.4 The purpose of these institutions was to end impunity—that is, the absence of criminal liability—in countries where political and military authorities had committed horrific violence against civilians.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Violence, Accountability, Peace, and International Criminal Court (ICC)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

30078. Leveraging U.S. Power in the Middle East

Author:: CAP Middle East Team
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: The geopolitical landscape that emerged after the end of the Cold War is facing recent strains from an unprecedented wave of global migration, climate change, and a more assertive Russia and competitive China—and the Middle East has emerged as a focal point for many of these challenges. The administration of the next U.S. president will face a Middle East challenged by regional power tensions; multiple civil wars; state collapse driven by political legitimacy crises; threats from rapidly evolving terrorist networks; record numbers of refugees; and escalating economic and human development pressures. These challenges, along with a new wave of regressive authoritarian forces limiting basic freedoms, will require the next administration to take a proactive and long-term approach to the Middle East. Dynamics in the Middle East have understandably caused many Americans to question the value of U.S involvement in the region. Indeed, this skepticism is supported by the track record of the past 15 years, particularly the fallout from the 2003 Iraq war. But recent events and trends in the Middle East—from the rise of the Islamic State to the refugee crisis spilling over into Europe—demonstrate that the United States has important stakes in what happens in the region. Because of the threats that the Middle East presents for the homeland and the danger that continued conflict in the region poses to global stability, the United States needs to work closely with regional partners to adopt a long-term approach to the region that advances America’s interests and values.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Hegemony, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Middle East, North America, and United States of America

30079. How Carbon Pricing Could Span the United States and North America

Author:: Gwynne Taraska and Howard Marano
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: Carbon pricing is flourishing in North America. Canada, for example, has announced a national price to take effect in 2018, while Mexico has announced a 12-month cap-and-trade pilot that will evolve into a national program. These developments join a network of established pricing instruments, including a carbon tax in Mexico and subnational systems in California, the northeast United States, and several Canadian provinces. Once unlikely, it now seems probable that carbon pricing will proliferate not only across Canada and Mexico but also in the United States. Carbon taxes and cap-and-trade programs have found a diverse set of U.S. proponents, including from the private sector and from across the political spectrum, who view carbon pricing instruments as effective and efficient methods of curbing greenhouse gas emissions and the disruptive effects of climate change.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Regional Cooperation, Carbon Emissions, and Price Control
Political Geography:: Canada, North America, Mexico, and United States of America

30080. 5 Big Ideas for U.S. Policy in the Americas

Author:: Dan Restrepo, Michael Werz, and Joel Martinez
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: The Americas affect U.S. national and homeland security, economic prosperity, and stability perhaps more than any other region in the world. Collectively, they are the destination for more than 40 percent of all U.S. exports,1 the source of 65 percent of all U.S. energy imports,2 and the region of origin or heritage for 17 percent of the U.S. population.3 As the next administration looks to the Americas, it will have a fundamental choice: It can embrace the partnership model that seeks to work with those in the region willing and capable to engage on the wide range of bilateral, regional, and global issues that have predominated the past eight years. Or, in contrast, the administration can unreasonably attempt to wall the United States off from its closest neighbors.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Hegemony, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: South America, Central America, North America, and United States of America

30081. Trade Update 2016: Transfers and Transparency

Author:: Irene Pavesi
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: The Small Arms Survey’s Trade Update 2016: Transfers and Transparency reports that the world’s ‘top’ and ‘major’ small arms exporters delivered at least USD 5.8 billion worth of small arms in 2013, an increase of 17 per cent compared to the USD 5 billion worth exported in 2012. The United States exported a record USD 1.1 billion worth of small arms in 2013, followed by Italy (USD 644 million) and Germany (USD 557 million). These three states accounted for almost 40 per cent of exports in 2013. In addition, significant increases in exports were recorded by Croatia, Israel, Spain, and Switzerland, whose small arms exports in 2013 pushed them over the USD 100 million mark. Meanwhile, transfers of small arms to the United States (USD 2.5 billion) alone accounted for 42 per cent of all imports.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Arms Trade, Transparency, and Trade
Political Geography:: Global Focus

30082. Toward a More Perfect Union: The Struggle for Security in Libya

Author:: William Danvers
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: Libya’s militia problem—which is a primary source of political and economic instability—is more complicated than defeating IS because it is more widespread. Dealing with it is a fundamental part of any effort to build a unified Libyan state. There are said to be as many as 2,000 militias across Libya, and while most are independent, they do fall into three general categories.10 There are those militias aligned with the GNC, many of which are Islamist but not necessarily jihadi. There are those that are generally anti-Islamist, loyal to the HoR and its military strongman supporter General Khalifa Haftar. Then there are those that are radical jihadis, such as IS and Ansar al-Shariah, which have ties to Al Qaeda.11 These militias form coalitions when it suits their purpose and at other times are at odds with each other. Regardless, they have helped create a failed Libyan state with no central authority or security structure.12 The criminal underground in Libya has been functioning since the time of Gadhafi. There are a number of groups, but there is no real central power structure similar to the mafia. Instead, these criminal groups operate independently, and they traffic in a variety of things, including guns, drugs, and people. They work with whoever serves their purpose, including IS. The role of the criminal underground has increased as the Libyan economy continues to crumble. In a very real sense, these criminal groups are the connective tissue between the jihadis and the militias, with all three impeding efforts to rebuild Libya.13 If Libya devolves into further instability—in effect becoming a failed state—it creates a threat to the region; a threat to Europe because of the increased flow of refugees and migrants from Libya; and a threat to both the United States and European Union because of the presence of IS and Al Qaeda affiliates. While addressing Libya’s security crises is an essential piece of the effort to build a functioning state, it will certainly be a difficult and complicated process. Nonetheless, there are things that can be done that will help make Libya more secure.
Topic:: Security, Fragile/Failed State, Peace, and State Building
Political Geography:: Africa and Libya

30083. Orbán’s Hungary

Author:: William Danvers
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: The recent U.S. presidential election caught much of the world by surprise and raised a number of questions about how the new administration will govern. Was the rhetoric on the campaign trail a harbinger of things to come, was it a divisive campaign strategy to get elected, or a bit of both? Either way, there is reason for concern and dismay. Taking a closer look at the Trump campaign, there are parallels to the right-wing national populist political movements in Europe. The recent transformation of Hungarian politics—in particular, the metamorphosis of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, leader of the ruling Fidesz Party—offers a cautionary tale of what can happen when a right-wing national populist leader gets elected. Unfortunately, Orbán, who has been invited to Washington by President-elect Donald Trump,1 is only one part of a larger right-wing national populist phenomenon that has taken root in Europe. For example, he is an inspiration for Jarosław Kacszyński, head of the Polish Law and Justice Party, or PiS, which now controls Poland’s government.2 The PiS, taking a page out of Orbán’s playbook, has been trying to consolidate its power by doing such things as attacking Poland’s Constitutional Tribunal, its highest court.3 The idea behind this and related moves in Hungary and Poland is to ensure that once the party is in power, it will remain there by rigging the system to make sure its leaders can get specific programs enacted and create a more favorable electoral climate.
Topic:: Nationalism, Authoritarianism, Leadership, Populism, and Far Right
Political Geography:: Europe and Hungary

30084. Advancing Climate-Compatible Infrastructure Through the G-20

Author:: Gwynne Taraska, Peter Ogden, Nancy Alexander, and Howard Marano
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: To date, 17 G-20 countries—which account for 67 percent of global greenhouse gas pollution—have officially joined the Paris Agreement, bringing the pact into effect sooner than anyone expected.1 If they follow through with their commitments to reduce emissions, it will represent unprecedented progress in the global effort to curb climate change. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, meanwhile, has suggested a number of actions, including dismantling the Clean Power Plan and pledging to “cancel” the Paris Agreement, that would drive the United States—and potentially other countries—in the opposite direction.2 In light of this, the G-20 summit in July 2017 provides an important opportunity for committed major powers to resist backsliding by any and all G-20 countries—and even to make some progress in meeting the climate challenge. To its credit, the German government, which officially assumed the G-20 presidency in December 2016, has taken steps that position the summit well for just such an effort. When German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced her three “pillar” objectives for the summit, she explicitly identified climate change as a priority. These pillars include fostering global economic stability; making the global economy viable for the future, including through the Paris Agreement and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development; and establishing the G-20 as a “community of responsibility,” including by promoting a compact with Africa that would address infrastructure investment, among other topics.3
Topic:: Climate Change, International Cooperation, Infrastructure, G20, and Green Technology
Political Geography:: Europe, Germany, and Global Focus

30085. Moscow on the Potomac

Author:: CAP National Security and International Policy
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: On October 16, 2016, the U.S. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper and Secretary of Homeland Security Jeh Johnson issued an extraordinary statement, indicating that the “U.S. Intelligence Community is confident that the Russian Government directed the recent compromises of e-mails from U.S. persons and institutions, including from U.S. political organizations.”1 The release of this hacked information was all directed at the Democratic presidential campaign and its affiliates, with no hacked information leaked regarding the campaign of the Republican presidential nominee, and now president-elect, Donald Trump. These senior U.S. intelligence officials pointed out that Russia, under President Vladimir Putin, had used similar tactics across Europe and Eurasia to bolster right-wing nationalist parties and that “[t]hese thefts and disclosures are intended to interfere with the U.S. election process.” Director Michael Rogers, head of the National Security Agency, noted, “There shouldn’t be any doubt in anybody’s minds, this was not something that was done casually, this was not something that was done by chance, this was not a target that was selected purely arbitrarily. This was a conscious effort by a nation-state to attempt to achieve a specific effect.”2
Topic:: Security, Corruption, National Security, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, North America, and United States of America

30086. A Practical Plan on the Israeli-Palestinian Front

Author:: Mara Rudman and Brian Katulis
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: The incoming U.S. administration has an opportunity to increase stability and advance U.S. security interests in the Middle East by outlining a framework for Israelis and Palestinians to make independent, coordinated, and constructive steps toward a two-state solution. This solution would support a safe and secure Israel and a sustainable, contiguous, and sovereign Palestine. At a time when the broader region continues to experience threats from civil wars, state fragmentation, and terrorist networks, the Israeli-Palestinian front is one area where the incoming administration can build on decades of investments to help enhance security and construct lasting institutions to achieve a sustainable resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. President-elect Donald Trump has declared that he wants “to be the one that made peace with Israel and the Palestinians.”1 Direct negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians are unworkable right now, but Trump can move toward this goal if he starts to lay the groundwork with five key steps:
Topic:: Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, and Borders
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

30087. U.S. and Russia Relations Under Trump and Putin

Author:: William Danvers
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: The detritus of the U.S.-Soviet Union relationship remains a part of the U.S.-Russian relationship. During the Cold War, U.S. policy went from containment to détente to confrontation. Today, the vicissitudes of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s engagement with the United States range from the productive—the Iran nuclear deal is one example—to confrontation—Ukraine is a good example—to doing a bit of both—Syria is an example of this. Putin wants Russia to not only have a seat at the table where decisions are made about global international issues but also wants the seat once held by the former Soviet Union.1 In other words, Putin wants a return to the great power politics of the Cold War and a free hand in the territory that was part of the Soviet Union. In this regard, Putin needs the United States as an adversary, though not necessarily as an enemy.2 This sort of dynamic allows him to maintain political support at home—he is protecting Russia from an outside threat—which allows him to avoid fixing an economy that is faltering3 and addressing the corruption that is a significant part of the political scene.4
Topic:: Corruption, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Leadership, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, North America, and United States of America

30088. Syrian Immigrants in the United States

Author:: David Dyssegaard Kallick, Cyierra Roldan, and Silva Mathema
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: Syrian immigrants and refugees have frequently been in the news over the past year, and not always in a positive light. President-elect Donald Trump lashed out against Syrians coming to the United States during his campaign, promising a ban on immigration from countries “compromised by terrorism,” calling for “extreme vetting” of immigrants from Muslim and Arab nations, and saying of people already granted refugee status who fled Syria, “If I win, they’re going back.”1 Considering this negative rhetoric, it may come as a surprise to some that immigrants from Syria who live in the United States are in fact doing very well. They are learning English, getting good jobs, owning homes, and starting businesses at impressive rates. These findings are reassuring and should provide the basis for more informed and thoughtful consideration of how to think about current and future Syrian immigrants and refugees. The Syrian immigrants in the study conducted for this issue brief are overwhelmingly people who came to the United States before the recent refugee crisis. Their success is a positive sign that the United States is a place that can provide opportunity for a wide range of people and shows that immigrants from Syria, like other immigrants, are making a real contribution to local economies around the country. Their success is also encouraging as the United States continues to accept refugees fleeing the horrific Syrian war zone. Those refugees will find that it can help to have a receiving community that includes people who speak the same language; share cultural and, in many cases, religious backgrounds; and understand both sides of the transition that ref
Topic:: Migration, Immigration, Border Control, Refugee Crisis, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

30089. Undermining Violent Extremist Narratives in South East Asia: A How-to Guide

Author:: Sara Zeiger
Publication Date:: 08-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hedayah
Abstract:: This report contains practical advice for civil society organizations and practitioners to develop effective narratives that counter the approaches of Daesh, Al-Qaida, Jemaah Islamiyah, and other violent extremists in the region. The guide also contains clear examples of counter-messages, case studies, and links to videos and websites that are relevant to supporting the development of counter-narratives.
Topic:: Civil Society, Violent Extremism, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:: Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Southeast Asia

30090. Counter-Narratives for Countering Violent Extremism (CVE) in South East Asia

Author:: Sara Zeiger
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hedayah
Abstract:: This meeting report is a summary and analysis of the preliminary results of the Expert workshop on South East Asia Collection of Counter-Narratives. Terrorism and violent extremism have been threats to South East Asia for decades, with local and international terrorist organizations such as Al-Qaeda historically establishing networks aligned with local conflicts. For example, Al-Qaeda has established connections with the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) in the Philippines; Lashkar Jundullah in Indonesia; Kumpulan Mujahidin Malaysia (KMM) in Malaysia; and Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. The terrorist attack in Jakarta in January 2016 has served as a reminder that terrorism in South East Asia is still a current and ongoing threat. Moreover, it revealed that ad-Dawla Islamiyah fi al-Iraq wa asSham (Daesh or Islamic State of Iraq and as-Sham/ ISIS) is utilizing a similar model as Al-Qaeda has historically: establishing international networks and recruiting local actors in South East Asia to carry out their aims and objectives.
Topic:: Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, Networks, and Recruitment
Political Geography:: Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Southeast Asia

30091. Brexit and Baltic Sea Security

Author:: Riina Kaljurand, Tony Lawrence, Pauli Järvenpää, and Tomas Jermalavicius
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: The result of the UK’s June 2016 referendum on continued membership of the EU was unexpected and its consequences may be wide-ranging and grave. This report considers the impact of the UK’s exit from the European Union (‘Brexit’) on the security of Estonia, the Baltic Sea region and Europe more widely. Its focus is hard security – military security and defence. The UK is a defence and security actor of considerable prominence, able to contribute significant military capability to the organisations and operations in which it participates. It is, however, sceptical about the place of the EU in defence matters and has achieved a certain level of infamy for its perseverance in obstructing the further development of an EU defence dimension. One immediate consequence of the Brexit referendum result was a burst of ideas for further EU defence integration, which has led to an agreement on the first steps for implementing the EU Global Strategy in the area of security and defence. Not all member states, however, are enthusiastic for these ideas. Interviews conducted for this report with officials and researchers in the Baltic Sea states of Denmark, Germany, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Sweden, and also in the UK found that interviewees believed that their countries shared with the UK approaches to security that would be harder to pursue after Brexit without the active support of the UK itself, and were largely sceptical about the need for further defence integration in the EU. In general, though, interviewees felt that the character of the European security environment post-Brexit is very difficult to forecast and the many factors that will contribute to shaping it are highly uncertain, complex, and intertwined. In these circumstances, scenario planning methodologies offer perhaps the best means of thinking about the future and informing policy decisions. The report thus identifies a range of possible post-Brexit scenarios as a vehicle for testing policies and identifying those likely to result in maximum benefit and minimum cost.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, Nordic Nations, and Baltic States

30092. Soldiers of Peace: Estonia, Finland and Ireland in UNIFIL

Author:: Tony Lawrence, Tomas Jermalavicius, and Anna Bulakh
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: Estonian, Finnish and Irish troops serve under a combined battalion in the UNIFIL mission in south Lebanon. The size of the contribution these three states make to UN peacekeeping is perhaps not well known – they are respectively the fourth, second and first largest European contributors, per capita, to UN missions. For each of them, UNIFIL is their single largest contribution to peace support operations. In this report, commissioned by Ireland’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, we examine the role of small states in United Nations peacekeeping through the lens of UNIFIL. Despite the different backgrounds and military cultures ofthe participating states, the Finnish/Irish Battalion is a successful partnership, bringing direct benefits to each of the countries involved. The partnership allows the three states to make the kind of contribution to peacekeeping which, for different reasons is an important aspect of
Topic:: United Nations, Peacekeeping, Military Affairs, and Partnerships
Political Geography:: Middle East, Finland, Estonia, North Africa, and Ireland

30093. Strengthening the Strategic Balance in the Baltic Sea Area

Author:: Kalev Stoicescu and Henrik Praks
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: The Defence Committee of the Riigikogu (Estonian Parliament) commissioned ICDS to conduct a study on the strategic balance in the Baltic Sea region with aim to contribute, in the run up to the Warsaw Summit, to the discussion on the optimum Alliance military posture in the region. Assumptions: Russia follows an increasingly aggressive anti-Western policy of revisionism and has become a direct and open threat to NATO. It is implementing an ambitious military modernisation programme and has demonstrated a tendency to use force against weaker neighbours. NATO´s overall superiority vis-à-vis Russia is not reflected equally in the Baltic Sea region, especially by taking into account geography and force postures. The Alliance military power is not sufficiently available in the region. Russia will strive to avoid a full-scale war with NATO, but it could be tempted, nevertheless, while being guided by misperceptions, to provoke and exploit a “local conflict” to test and undermine the Alliance. Key findings: Credible NATO deterrence in the eastern flank of the Alliance requires an optimum balance between deterrence by punishment and deterrence by denial. Present NATO defence posture in the Baltic Sea region is inadequate for the effective deterrence by denial. Notable capability gaps exist as regards air and missile defence and naval presence. Russia has the ability to impose an A2/AD “bubble” over the Baltic states and large parts of the Baltic Sea. The major concentration of Russian forces in the areas surrounding Baltic states clearly exceeds defensive needs. Many of these units are offensive in their nature. Russia is frequently exercising military actions against Baltic states and their separation from the rest of the Alliance In military terms Belarus is an extension of Russian armed forces and performs an important geopolitical role, especially with regard to the “Suwalki gap”. The most likely worst scenario is not a “hybrid crisis” or limited incursion, but the separation and possible conquest of the Baltic states by conventional military means. Conclusions and recommendations The Russian threat has to be clearly acknowledged, treated as a strategic long-term challenge and taken fully into account in NATO’s defence planning and future posture in the Baltic Sea area. Effective deterrence requires a clearly increased presence of Allied forces in the region. NATO’s forward defence has to move from a symbolic to a meaningful presence. The Alliance’s forward presence must balance two key aspects: military effectiveness and multinationality. Military effectiveness requires the forces to be combat ready. The United States should exercise leadership by providing the framework and certain key capabilities, which would then be complemented by contributions from other Allies. In terms of manoeuvre formations, the baseline consideration should be brigade-sized units. A continuous presence of two brigades would be necessary, in addition to the indigenous forces of the Baltic countries. An increased presence of air assets, including transition from Air Policing mission to Air Defence, and maintenance of a robust naval presence in the Baltic Sea, is required. The Baltic countries will need to allocate additional resources for the Host Nation Support, including the development of necessary infrastructure. Alongside the strengthening of the forward presence component, the Alliance needs to refine capabilities for the deployment of reinforcements and follow-on forces, and for the neutralization of Russia´s A2/AD capabilities. The Allies should demonstrate their ability, in collective defence exercises, to rapidly move large numbers of troops to the Baltic region.
Topic:: NATO, Alliance, and Deterrence
Political Geography:: Russia, Nordic Nations, and Baltic States

30094. Closing NATO’s Baltic Gap

Author:: Wesley K. Clark, Juri Luik, Egon Ramms, and Richard Shirreff
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: This report was prepared as an input to the forthcoming NATO’s Warsaw Summit by three former NATO commanders with considerable experience of Allied strategy, operations and capabilities: a former Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR), a former Deputy SACEUR and a former Commander of the Allied Joint Force Command Brunssum. Political experience and context are provided by a former ambassador to NATO.
Topic:: NATO, Alliance, and Deterrence
Political Geography:: Russia, Nordic Nations, and Baltic States

30095. How and Why Government, Universities, and Industry Create Domestic Labor Shortages of Scientists and High-Tech Workers

Author:: William Lazonick, Philip Moss, and Joshua Weitz
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: On June 2, 1965, under a mandate established by Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, the U.S. Congress created the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) to enforce federal anti-discrimination laws related to employment. The expectation was that African Americans would be prime beneficiaries of the EEOC. There was no assumption that the EEOC, on its own, could reverse deep-rooted employment discrimination against blacks. But in the late 1960s there was optimism that, in combination with equal educational opportunity and the strong demand for unionized workers in the well-paid manufacturing jobs that marked the post-World War II decades, the EEOC could help to ensure that an ever-increasing number of blacks would ascend to the American middle class. African Americans as a group are better educated than they were in the 1960s, and, as discriminatory norms and practices have lessened, large numbers of college-educated blacks have experienced upward employment mobility into professional, technical, and administrative occupations. But the promise of a large-scale ascendancy of blacks to middle-class status, characterized by secure and well-paid employment, has not been fulfilled. Our basic thesis is that, in combination with the institutions of racism which remain widespread in American society, the erosion of secure and well-paid employment opportunities is a major reason for the persistence since the 1980s of African Americans as disproportionately disadvantaged. Our contribution to the larger debate on the economics of race is to focus on the role of corporate resource allocation as the prime determinant of the quantity and quality of employment opportunities in the economy. The decline of middle-class employment opportunities has adversely affected the majority of the U.S. labor force of all races, ethnicities, and genders. African Americans, however, have been more vulnerable than other demographic groups to this decline. U.S. institutions of corporate governance vest power over major resource-allocation decisions in the hands of senior executives, supported by their hand-picked corporate boards. Given the enormous size of the major business corporations and their centrality to economic activity, the resource-allocation decisions made by senior executives of major U.S. corporations profoundly influence the operation and performance of the economy as a whole—including the availability, or not, of secure and well-paid employment opportunities. The failure to include an analysis of corporate resource allocation and how it has changed over the past half century in the policy debate on income inequality is what we call the “equal employment opportunity omission.”
Topic:: Race, Employment, Inequality, Civil Rights, Legislation, and Equality
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

30096. The Value-Extracting CEO: How Executive Stock-Based Pay Undermines Investment in Productive Capabilities

Author:: William Lazonick
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: The business corporation is the central economic institution in a modern economy. A company’s senior executives, with the advice and support of the board of directors, are responsible for the allocation of corporate resources to investments in productive capabilities. Senior executives also advise the board on the extent to which, given the need to invest in productive capabilities, the company can afford to make cash distributions to shareholders. Motivating corporate resource- allocation decisions are the modes of remuneration that incentivize and reward the top executives of these companies. A sound analysis of the operation and performance of a modern economy requires an understanding of not only how much these executives are paid but also the ways in which the prevailing system of executive pay influences their decisions to allocate corporate resources. In the United States since the last half of the 1980s the overriding goal of U.S. corporations has been to “maximize shareholder value,” with corporate performance measured by a company’s “total shareholder return”: percentage stock-price appreciation plus dividend yield. Also since the 1980s, the most important components of the total compensation of senior executives have been modes of stock-based pay in the forms of stock options and stock awards. This stock-based pay is structured to incentivize executives to make corporate allocation decisions that will boost the stock prices of the companies that employ them and reward them for achieving that objective. There are three drivers of stock prices: innovation, speculation, and manipulation. The first critical question that this paper addresses is which of these drivers, individually or in combination, contribute to a company’s stock-price performance. Then we can ask the second critical question: Does executive compensation reflect the success of the company in value creation, or the power of senior executives to engage in value extraction? The “value- extracting CEO” hypothesis posits that, in the United States, a significant portion of senior executive compensation rewards them for making decisions that foment speculation and manipulate stock prices, and thereby extract value for their own personal gain. In section four of the paper, I invoke the theory of innovative enterprise to support this hypothesis and debunk the dominant ideology that companies should be run to “maximize shareholder value.” Finally, I elaborate the policy implications for controlling the power of the value-extracting CEO, including a) banning stock buybacks, b) requiring executive compensation that rewards innovation rather than speculation and manipulation, and c) placing stakeholders representing households as taxpayers, workers, and consumers on boards of directors of publicly listed companies, along with shareholders who represent households as savers. An intellectual precondition for these reforms is the rejection of the ideology that companies should be run to maximize shareholder value, which means replacing agency theory with innovation theory as a mode of analyzing how the operation of an economy, supported by the strategies and structures of the business enterprises within it, can attain the objectives of stable and equitable economic growth.
Topic:: Leadership, Investment, Corporations, Redistribution, Stock Markets, and Wage Growth
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

30097. The EuroZone “Debt” Crisis: Another “Center” – “Periphery” Crisis Under Financial Globalization?

Author:: Arturo O'Connell
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: This paper analyzes the Euro crisis in light of the experience of center-periphery relations over the last 40 years of renewed financial globalization. The crisis shows the characteristic pattern evident in so many other crises in the developing world: i.e. “boom” and “bust” phases of cross-border financial flows of massive magnitude, dominated by “push” factors from the center. Financial institutions at the center play a crucial role. The “boom” phase leads to serious imbalances in the peripheral economies - losses of competitiveness among them -ending in a “sudden-stop” that poses acute problems for the overexposed creditors, which then turn to their own governments for bailouts.
Topic:: Debt, Globalization, Regional Cooperation, Financial Crisis, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe

30098. The Personal Wealth Interests of Politicians and the Stabilization of Financial Markets

Author:: Ahmed Tahoun and Laurence van Lent
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: We examine whether personal wealth interests affect politicians’ decisions about stabilizing financial markets. We use the setting of the government’s support of financial institutions under the 2008 Emergency Economic Stabilization Act. We find that the personal wealth interests of politicians are positively associated with voting in favor of the EESA. We implement several analyses to show that personal wealth interests rather than unobservable beliefs in the financial sector explain our result.
Topic:: Financial Markets, Economic Stability, Economic Crisis, and Wealth
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

30099. The Mismeasure of Mammon: Uses and Abuses of Executive Pay Data

Author:: Matt Hopkins and William Lazonick
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: On April 7, 2016, the Wall Street Journal ran an article headlined “CEO pay shrank most since financial crisis,” while on May 27, 2016, a similar New York Times story declared “Top CEO pay fell – yes, fell – in 2015.” Unfortunately, both the Journal and the Times mismeasured the actual take-home pay of each and every one of these CEOs in 2014 and 2015. The reason for this mismeasure is that both articles relied on “fair value” estimates of the stock-based pay of these CEOs as reported in the Summary Compensation Table of the definitive proxy statement (Form DEF 14A) that each publicly listed company files annually with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Yet the very same proxy statements also report the actual realized gains of these CEOs in the Option Exercises and Stock Vested Table. It is the realized gains on stock-based pay, not fair-value estimates, that enter into the total compensation that a CEO actually takes home and reports as income in his or her income-tax return. Moreover, including actual realized gains instead of estimated fair value of stock– based pay in the measure of total executive compensation can make a big difference. In 2014 average total compensation of the 500 highest-paid executives named on corporate proxy statements based on actual realized gains was $34.3 million, with 81 percent coming from stock-based pay. But average total compensation of the 500 highest paid based on estimated fair value was $19.3 million, with 62 percent attributable to stock- based pay. The excess of total actual realized-gains compensation over total estimated fair-value compensation was greatest in those years when the stock market was booming. Why would the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times report estimates of executive pay when they could be reporting the CEOs’ actual pay? In this paper, we answer this question by explaining the origins of the “fair value” estimates of stock-based pay and how the obsession with these estimates by the SEC, relying on the business-run Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB), has relegated to statistical obscurity executives’ readily available, accurate, and actual realized gains from stock-based pay. We use Standard & Poor’s ExecuComp database to document that a) stock-based pay, in the forms of realized gains from stock options and stock awards, dominates both the size of and the changes over time in the total compensation of the highest-paid senior executives; and b) the fair-value estimates of stock-based pay tend to understate, often substantially, the realized gains from stock-based pay that these executives actually receive. An irony is that even critics of excessive executive pay, most notably the AFL-CIO on its Executive Paywatch website, use the fair-value estimates when the actual CEO compensation numbers would reveal a much larger ratio of CEO pay to the earnings of the average worker. Indeed, as we discuss in the conclusion to this paper, as mandated by the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010, this mismeasure of executive pay has become institutionalized in U.S. government policy in the SEC’s Pay Ratio Disclosure Rule, which beginning in 2017 requires every company to publish the ratio of CEO to median-worker pay. Under this rule, the SEC requires companies to use the fair-value measure of CEO pay. The Pay Ratio Disclosure Rule is supposed to provide the public with a company-level indicator of income inequality. Instead it will tend to underestimate inequality, substituting fictitious estimates for actual known amounts of income that CEOs put into their bank accounts and declare in their income-tax returns.
Topic:: Financial Crisis, Inequality, Income Inequality, Stock Markets, and Wage Growth
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

30100. Political Lending

Author:: Ahmed Tahoun and Florin P. Vasvari
Publication Date:: 08-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Using a unique dataset provided by the Center for Responsive Politics (CRP), we document a direct channel through which financial institutions contribute to the net worth of members of the U.S. Congress, particularly those sitting on the finance committees in the Senate and the House of Representatives. These individuals report greater levels of leverage and new liabilities as a proportion of their total net worth, relative to when they are not part of the finance committee or relative to other congressional members. Politicians increase new liabilities by over 30% of their net worth in the first year of their finance committee membership. We do not find similar patterns for members of non-finance powerful committees. We find no evidence that finance committee members arrange new personal liabilities ahead of their appointments to the committees. Finance committee members also report liabilities with lower interest rates and longer maturities. Finally, focusing on banks that lend to U.S. Congress members, we find that the weaker performing financial institutions lend to more finance committee members and provide more new debt to these politicians. Our findings suggest that lenders may create political connections with finance committee members in an attempt to obtain regulatory benefits. !
Topic:: Debt, Institutions, Fiscal Policy, Political Class, and Banking
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS