Search

Begin New Search Publication Year within 10 Years

27731. Input Diffusion and the Evolution of Production Network

Author:
Vasco Carvalho and Nico Voigtlander
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
The adoption and diffusion of inputs in the production network is at the heart of technological progress. What determines which inputs are initially considered and eventually adopted by innovators? We examine the evolution of input linkages from a network perspective, starting from a stylized model of network formation. The adoption and diffusion of inputs in the production network is at the heart of technological progress. What determines which inputs are initially considered and eventually adopted by innovators? We examine the evolution of input linkages from a network perspective, starting from a stylized model of network formation. Producers direct their search for new inputs along vertical linkages, screening the network neighborhood of existing suppliers to identify potentially useful inputs. A subset of these is then adopted, following a tradeoff between the benefits from input variety and the costs of customizing new inputs. Guided by this framework, we document a novel stylized fact at both the sector and the firm level: producers are more likely to adopt inputs that are already used – directly or indirectly – by their current suppliers. In particular, using disaggregated input-output data, we show that initial network proximity of a sector in 1967 significantly increases the likelihood of adoption throughout the subsequent four decades. A one-standard deviation decrease in network distance is associated with an increase in the adoption probability by one third to one half. Similarly, U.S. firms are significantly more likely to develop new input linkages among their suppliers’ network neighborhood. Our results imply that the existing production network plays a crucial role in the diffusion of inputs and the evolution of technology.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, Microeconomics, and Emerging Technology
Political Geography:
Global Focus

27732. Laid Low: The IMF, The Eurozone and the First Rescue of Greece

Author:
Paul Blustein
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
As Greece descended into a financial maelstrom in the spring of 2010, a small group of staffers at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) held top-secret talks with officials from the German and French finance ministries to discuss the idea of restructuring Greece’s debt. Many independent analysts believed a restructuring was inevitable because the country’s debt burden appeared unsustainable. But instead, the “Troika” — the tripartite group of lenders that included the IMF, the European Commission and European Central Bank — attempted to resolve the crisis by giving Athens bailout loans of unprecedented magnitude, piling debt atop debt. The idea considered in those secret talks would come to fruition only much later, in March 2012, when Greece received the largest debt relief in history. In the meantime, the rescue effort would go terribly awry, with consequences that continue to reverberate today as the euro area struggles with weak growth and a rekindled crisis in Greece. This paper tells the story of the first Greek rescue, focusing on the role played by the IMF. A detailed look back at this drama elucidates significant concerns about the Fund’s governance and its management of future crises. The Fund has come under attack for yielding to the clout of European policy makers and lending its credibility to a rescue that some of its senior staffers viewed with grave misgivings. The result, critics lament, tarnished the Fund’s reputation for technocratic judgment, rendering it less effective at promoting international stability. The 2010 rescue enabled Greece to avoid default at that point, which might well have sparked a global conflagration akin to the 2008 bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. European banks holding Greek bonds continued receiving payments of interest and principal for quite a long time thereafter, from the money lent by the Troika. But the interests of the Greek people were arguably sacrificed, and among economists there is widespread agreement that the country’s debt should have been restructured much sooner. In addition to shedding new light on what happened, this chronicle of events highlights the importance of the IMF’s acceptance, as a condition of its participation in the rescue, of a “junior partner” role in the Troika. This step is judged in the concluding section as being particularly ill-boding for the IMF’s ability to manage future crises, and policy recommendations are offered for alleviating the harm.
Topic:
Debt, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Fiscal Policy, Eurozone, and IMF
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

27733. Discrimination, Social Identity, and Coordination: An Experiment

Author:
Vessela Daskalova
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
This paper presents an experiment investigating the effect of social identity on hiring decisions. The question is whether people discriminate between own and other group candidate This paper presents an experiment investigating the effect of social identity on hiring decisions. The question is whether people discriminate between own and other group candidates. Key features of the experiment are: First, to consider whether they do so in individual, as well as in joint decisions; Second, to document whether the identity of the co‐decision maker matters in joint decisions. Substantial discrimination occurs in both individual and joint decision‐making situations. In joint decisions, decision makers discriminate when deciding with someone from their own group, but not when deciding with someone from the other group.
Topic:
Economics, Race, Employment, Inequality, Discrimination, Job Creation, Social Order, and Identity
Political Geography:
Global Focus

27734. Challenges for the PLAN in the Western Pacific: Implications for the U.S.-Japan Alliance

Author:
Tetsuo Kotani
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
China is further developing its anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities, particularly its submarine fleet and cruise missiles launched from land-based aircraft, to defeat an approaching enemy fleet. In addition to developing A2/AD capabilities, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is making concerted efforts to become a blue water navy. However, the PLAN faces some difficult challenges—both geographical and operational—in becoming an ocean-going navy. This paper considers the challenges the PLAN faces in the open ocean and the implications of these challenges for U.S.-Japan alliance cooperation.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Military Affairs, Weapons, and Alliance
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Asia, and United States of America

27735. Taiwan’s Naval Role in the Rebalance to Asia

Author:
Ian Easton
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
A comprehensive strategy for Asia begins with a careful assessment of the region’s geography and politics, which directly influence the trends we see unfolding today. Once the geostrategic contours of the region are mapped out, it quickly becomes clear that Taiwan may be the single most under- appreciated asset that the United States has for the rebalance to Asia. This article provides a brief assessment of Taiwan’s defense capabilities and potential role in the United States rebalance to Asia. In particular, it will focus on what Taiwan can contribute in the maritime domain and what Washington should do to improve naval coordination with Taipei.
Topic:
Defense Policy, International Cooperation, Politics, Geopolitics, Navy, and Geography
Political Geography:
Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

27736. Chinese Religious Regulations in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region: A Veiled Threat to Turkic Muslims?

Author:
Julia Famularo
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
Radical Islam constitutes a growing challenge in the immediate periphery of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and beyond. Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leaders are placing emphasis on “managing religion according to the rule of law,” and the Xinjiang People’s Congress has promulgated comprehensive new religious affairs regulations. Yet, are these regulations more likely to reduce or heighten ethno-religious tensions in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR)? This article examines the most important aspects of these new regulations, and how they will affect how the CCP manages religious affairs.
Topic:
Human Rights, Islam, Religion, Minorities, and Repression
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Xinjiang

27737. China’s Military Developments and the U.S.-Japan Alliance

Author:
Project 2049 Institute
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
In 2015, the Project 2049 Institute launched a program to focus on trends in China’s military advancements and how the U.S. and Japan can coordinate closely to maintain the peace and stability that has anchored the Asia-Pacific region’s economic dynamism and growth over the past 60 years. The discussions drew upon perspectives from U.S. and Japanese experts who work in a variety of government and non-governmental positions. This paper serves as a capstone for the various discussions held over the course of the program in both Washington, D.C. and San Diego.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Military Affairs, Alliance, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Asia, and United States of America

27738. Chinese Activities in the South China Sea: Implications for the American Pivot to Asia

Author:
Kelsey Broderick
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the background of the South China Sea dispute and the extent to which the American rebalance has influenced China’s actions in the Sea. Following an assessment of the legal definitions found in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and a look at China’s military developments, the paper concludes with a discussion on how the rebalance has failed to prevent China from unilaterally changing the status quo in the South China Sea and looks at ways the rebalance can become more effective in the future.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Territorial Disputes, Military Affairs, and Law of the Sea
Political Geography:
China, Asia-Pacific, United States of America, and South China Sea

27739. Rebuilding Deterrence: Post-2015 Defense Guidelines Challenges Facing the U.S.-Japan Alliance

Author:
Sugio Takahashi
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
On 27 April 2015, Japan and the U.S. concluded the new Guidelines for the Japan-U.S. Defense Cooperation. This paper will explore the challenges facing the alliance after the revision of the Defense Guidelines. It will examine the evolution of Japanese thought on deterrence as outlined in the 2010 and 2013 National Defense Program Guidelines. It will also assess the strategic implications of China’s military modernization. This paper will conclude by offering possible policy solutions to the challenges facing the U.S.-Japan alliance in maintaining deterrence.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Bilateral Relations, Alliance, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

27740. TPP From Taiwan’s Vantage Point: Political, Trade, and Strategic Considerations

Author:
Sara Yi-ying Lin Lin
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
Established in 2008, The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) has been closely followed by the major trading nations in the Asia-Pacific. Taiwan, or the Republic of China (ROC), and other non-members have been observing the developments in the negotiation process of this “21st Century Agreement” and preparing their respective country’s strategies and policies in response to the agreement. As a member of the Asia-Pacific region, it is critical for Taiwan to join the TPP in the near future.
Topic:
Alliance, Trans-Pacific Partnership, Trade, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Taiwan and Asia