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28461. Burma Votes for Change: The Challenges Ahead

Author:
Igor Blazevic
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Democracy
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy’s sweeping victory in Burma’s November 2015 elections and the military’s acquiescence in allowing the NLD to take the reins of power have justly been described as remarkable and historic milestones. Yet a number of unresolved critical issues still loom. The aspirations of the people of Burma and of the newly elected democratic forces are still seriously constrained by the constitution imposed by the military, by Burman Buddhist nationalism, by entrenched oligarchic interests, and by tough structural conditions. The biggest challenge of all: Burma is a “robustly” plural and deeply divided society. Without political consensus about the nature of the state among key stakeholders, including all significant ethnic and religious groups, the military will not withdraw from politics, the transition to civilian rule will not happen, peace will remain elusive, and Burma’s democratization will stagnate. Burma’s transition can succeed and serve as an example of a “hard-case” country that successfully democratizes despite lacking favorable structural conditions. Yet it is important to understand just how fragile and unsettled the whole process still is.
Topic:
Nationalism, Authoritarianism, Elections, Democracy, and Military Government
Political Geography:
Asia, Burma, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar

28462. Latin America’s New Turbulence: Crisis and Integrity in Brazil

Author:
Marcus Andre Melo
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Democracy
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
For Brazil’s young democracy, this might seem to be the worst of times. The country’s once-booming economy has taken a nosedive along with global commodity prices; a monster public-corruption scandal is engulfing much of the political class and infuriating millions of ordinary Brazilians; and a president who barely won reelection only to abandon her basic fiscal-policy approach now teeters on the brink of impeachment and expulsion from office. Yet these storm clouds have a silver lining. For, grave as they are, they have put on vivid display the strength, independence, and public trust enjoyed by the country’s web of judicial and public-accountability institutions and attested to the free and energetic nature of the media in a country that only three decades ago was held under lockdown by a military dictatorship. Politics and the economy are in a crisis, but looking beneath the turmoil we can glimpse the power of the rule of law and see Brazilian constitutional democracy’s institutional resilience and fortitude.
Topic:
Democracy, Economy, State Building, and Dictatorship
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

28463. The Puzzle of the Chinese Middle Class

Author:
Andrew J. Nathan
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Democracy
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
The Chinese middle class differs from the middle class of Lipset’s classic theory in four ways. It is a smaller fraction of the population. It is directly or indirectly dependent on the state. It is new, with most of its members the first generation of their families to achieve this status. And its associational life is severely restricted. Although middle class persons have more prodemocratic attitudes than other Chinese, few are prepared to oppose the current regime. However, their support for the regime is fragile and subject to erosion, especially if economic conditions worsen.
Topic:
Class, Economic Mobility, and Middle Class
Political Geography:
China and Asia

28464. Xi Jinping’s Maoist Revival

Author:
Suisheng Zhao
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Democracy
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
After making himself one of the most powerful leaders in PRC history, Xi Jinping launched the largest ideological campaign that China has seen since Mao—a mixture of communism, nationalism, and Leninism that is meant to strengthen and discipline the CCP, reinforce its grip on power, maintain political stability, and (more nebulously) achieve the “China dream” of national rejuvenation. Xi’s ideological gambit now looks less like a show of strength than an embarrassing confession of regime fragility in a twenty-first century China buffeted by fears of economic slowdown, impatient liberals, and a public angered by rampant corruption.
Topic:
Communism, Nationalism, Fragile States, and Political stability
Political Geography:
China and Asia

28465. 25 Years After the USSR: What’s Gone Wrong?

Author:
Henry E. Hale
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Democracy
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
A quarter century after the USSR’s breakup, the region it occupied has become more rather than less authoritarian on average. The rise has been neither steep nor steady, however, and the dominant regional pattern has been regime cycling, with movement both toward and away from authoritarianism at different points in time. Key causes are the tenacious pre-Soviet legacy of patronalism, the prevalence of presidentialist constitutions, and strong leadership popularity without the strong Western linkage and leverage that has often mitigated similar authoritarian tendencies in places like Africa and Latin America.
Topic:
Power Politics, Authoritarianism, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Latin America

28466. The Danger of Deconsolidation: The Democratic Disconnect

Author:
Roberto Stefan Foa and Yascha Mounk
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Democracy
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
The citizens of wealthy, established democracies are less satisfied with their governments than they have been at any time since opinion polling began. Most scholars have interpreted this as a sign of dissatisfaction with particular governments rather than with the political system as a whole. Drawing on recent public opinion data, we suggest that this optimistic interpretation is no longer plausible. Across a wide sample of countries in North America and Western Europe, citizens of mature democracies have become markedly less satisfied with their form of government and surprisingly open to nondemocratic alternatives. A serious democratic disconnect has emerged. If it widens even further, it may begin to challenge the stability of seemingly consolidated democracies.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Democracy, and Political stability
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and Western Europe

28467. Iraq’s Year of Rage

Author:
Mieczyslaw P. Boduszynski
Publication Date:
10-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Democracy
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
Iraqis of all ethnic and sectarian groups are fed up with the ineptitude and corruption of their political leaders and the institutions they control. Since 2015, they have turned out in record numbers to protest against their political elite. The protests that unfolded in 2015 and 2016 have highlighted two failings of Iraq’s post-2003 “democratic” order: 1) the entrenchment of a corrupt “partyocracy” that has captured the state and deepened sectarian divisions, and 2) the weakness of state institutions and the absence of the rule of law that have encouraged widespread corruption and fostered broad popular distrust of the post-Saddam Iraqi state.
Topic:
Social Movement, Democracy, Rule of Law, Protests, and Diversity
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

28468. The Specter Haunting Europe: The Unraveling of the Post-1989 Order

Author:
Ivan Krastev
Publication Date:
10-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Democracy
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
This article argues that the unraveling of the post–Cold War liberal order is manifested by the West’s declining influence in international politics; the waning attraction of liberal democracy; and the maturing tensions within liberal democratic regimes. This unraveling renders problematic the European project of trying to extend democracy beyond the nation-state—a project that has enhanced the appeal of illiberal democracy, defined by majoritarian regimes in which the majority transforms the state into its own private possession. These regimes have become an answer to the pressures of a world where popular will is the only source of political legitimacy, and global markets are the only source of economic growth. Their rise portends devastating and far-reaching consequences throughout Europe.
Topic:
Democracy, Global Markets, Legitimacy, and Post Cold War
Political Geography:
Europe

28469. The Specter Haunting Europe: Distinguishing Liberal Democracy’s Challengers

Author:
Takis S. Pappas
Publication Date:
10-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Democracy
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
This article takes issue with the common practice of uncritically lumping together as “populist” the various and distinct challengers to democracy in contemporary Europe. It disaggregates and then classifies such challengers into three analytically distinct categories: antidemocrats, nativists, and populists. In so doing, the article reveals the geographical distribution of these categories across Europe, and highlights the value of treating each category based on its unique set of symptoms. It further shows that the gravest threat to contemporary liberalism comes from populist rather than from antidemocratic or nativist parties.
Topic:
Democracy, Populism, Liberal Order, Nativism, and Post Cold War
Political Geography:
Europe

28470. The role of ex-rebel parties in building peace

Author:
Clare Castillejo
Publication Date:
03-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Political parties can play an important part in shaping the direction of post-conflict peacebuilding, and parties that emerge from rebel movements have a particularly central role to play in this regard. While such groups are often uniquely placed to articulate the grievances that underlie the conflict and channel these into political processes, they are also able to remobilise for violence and undermine progress on peace. This report discusses existing knowledge about the ways in which rebel groups transform into political parties and the factors that shape their contribution to peacebuilding. It then examines three cases of political parties that have emerged from rebel groups – the FMLN of El Salvador, UCPN (Maoist) of Nepal and SPLM of South Sudan. In each case it explores how the internal dynamics of the group and its relationship to society, the nature of the peace settlement, and the broader local and international context determine the group’s engagement with democracy and peace processes. Finally, the report examines how international actors can support rebel-to-party transition and the integration of these parties into peace processes and political systems in ways that promote a sustainable and inclusive peace.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Peacekeeping, Political Parties, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Africa, Asia, Nepal, Latin America, El Salvador, and South Sudan

28471. Political parties and peacebuilding

Author:
Clare Castillejo
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
International peacebuilding actors have so far been wary of engagement with political parties. However, there is growing recognition of the importance of working with local political systems, institutions and parties in the promotion of peace. It is therefore important that international actors strengthen their understanding of political parties in conflict-affected contexts and how such parties relate to conflict and peacebuilding, as well as examine how best to deepen engagement with them. This report examines the nature of political parties in conflict-affected contexts and the challenges such parties face in becoming effective actors for peace. It analyses three cases – Sri Lanka, Nepal and Myanmar – where parties have played very different roles in relation to both the grievances and struggles that have fuelled conflict, and efforts to build and sustain peace. It then discusses how lessons from these cases can inform the work of international peacebuilding actors. Finally, the report examines the track record of the international community in working with political parties in conflict-affected contexts. It argues that international actors must move beyond “blueprint” approaches to party support and instead develop more comprehensive and context-relevant responses to the specific challenges that such parties face. There is growing awareness among international peacebuilding and statebuilding actors of the importance of engaging more effectively with political processes and structures in conflict-affected and post-conflict states. Although political parties are frequently at the centre of such processes and structures, international actors have generally been wary of working with them beyond limited capacity-building activities, seeing this as a sensitive and high-risk area. Political parties can help build peace. However, they can also fuel antagonism, grievance and conflict. If international peacebuilding and statebuilding actors are serious about working more effectively with local politics, it is essential that they strengthen their understanding of political parties and the roles they play in relation to conflict and peacebuilding, as well as rethink how best to engage with them.
Topic:
Peacekeeping, Local, State Building, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
Asia, Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Myanmar

28472. Women in armed groups and fighting forces: lessons learned from gender-sensitive DDR programmes

Author:
Elisa Tarnaala
Publication Date:
06-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Despite their involvement in strategic, material and logistical support and combat, women’s roles as "soldiers" and "victims" are narrowly defined by post-conflict programmes. Most disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) programmes are limited in the ways in which issues specific to female combatants are addressed. Gender-sensitive DDR programming must be linked into the entire peace process, from the peace negotiations through peacekeeping and subsequent peacebuilding activities. This process should include issues such as identifying women and setting the appropriate criteria for their entering DDR processes; understanding identity issues and obstacles facing women’s post-conflict political participation; targeting women as larger units with their children and partners rather than merely as individuals; addressing female health and psychosocial needs; and sensitisation to the particular issues around the gender dimensions of violence and community acceptance. This report highlights lessons learned from gender and DDR processes and notes that with regard to territorial implementation, national DDR commissions should be encouraged to work closely with government entities in charge of gender and women’s affairs, and – especially where governments are responsible for all or part of the DDR process – with women’s peacebuilding networks that can serve as bridges in the transition to civilian life, and facilitate social, political and economic reintegration
Topic:
Gender Issues, Peacekeeping, Women, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Global Focus

28473. Women political leaders and peacebuilding

Author:
Clare Castillejo
Publication Date:
05-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Over the past 15 years there has been growing recognition of the gender-differentiated impact of conflict, the opportunities to promote women’s rights that post-conflict peacebuilding processes provide and – crucially – the value that women bring to peacebuilding. Yet in many conflict-affected settings women’s participation and leadership in shaping the peacebuilding agenda remain strongly resisted by male elites and are not prioritised by international actors. This report explores the opportunities for achieving women’s meaningful participation and influence in peacebuilding, and the challenges faced by such an agenda. Given the crucially important role that political parties can play in shaping the direction of peacebuilding and post-conflict politics, the report focuses particularly on the ability of women to exercise political voice and leadership through parties and the party system. Finally, it examines why international actors have failed to live up to their commitments on women’s inclusion in peacebuilding, and identifies opportunities and strategies to strengthen international support for women’s participation and influence in the politics of peace.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Peacekeeping, Women, Feminism, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Global Focus

28474. Engaged societies, responsive states: The Social Contract in situations of conflict and fragility

Author:
Marco Mezzera
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
This concept note presents an analysis of the use of a “social contract” as a way of framing UNDP’s governance and peacebuilding practices in fragile and conflict-affected contexts. It forms part of the follow-up to the UNDP report “Governance for Peace: Securing the Social Contract” (UNDP, 2012) both to contribute further to UN policy discussions and to help chart ways forward. The social contract is the process by which everyone in a political community, either explicitly or tacitly, consents to state authority, thereby limiting some of her or his freedoms, in exchange for the state’s protection of their universal human rights and security and for the adequate provision of public goods and services. Divided into five sections, this note provides both a conceptual understanding of the social contract, as well as policy implications for UNDP projects moving forward. The note also examines case studies of post-conflict regions where the social contract has been rebuilt and proposes areas for further study in order to help fully capitalize on the potential that the social contract offers. Finally, the two annexes provide a framework for a tool to help practitioners analyze the structure and dynamics of the social contract in a fragile setting.
Topic:
Governance, Peacekeeping, Conflict, and Social Contract
Political Geography:
Global Focus

28475. Innovations in the Colombian peace process

Author:
Kristian Herbolzheimer
Publication Date:
06-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The peace agreement is a major milestone in the process of settling one of the world’s most protracted and violent conflicts. At a time of unprecedented humanitarian crisis, Colombia is becoming a global reference for identifying political solutions to apparently intractable conflicts. In their third major attempt in five decades to reach a negotiated solution to the conflict, the parties to the conflict have taken stock of both their own past failures and lessons learned from other peace processes. In doing so they have developed innovative frameworks and approaches, e.g. a clear procedural distinction between peace negotiations and the peace process; positioning the rights of the victims at the centre of the talks; addressing the structural problem of rural development; creating a Gender Subcommission; and planning for implementation long before the agreement is signed. This report describes all these innovations and other developments which have led up to peace agreement. Many of these innovations could have relevance to peace processes elsewhere.
Topic:
Diplomacy, United Nations, Peace, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

28476. The mapping of peace constituency actors in the Philippines

Author:
Joeven Reyes
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The Philippines has a long history of armed conflicts caused by various factors, including poverty, lack of social justice, continuing HR violations and impunity, discrimination, and non-recognition of the right to self-determination. In spite of this long-standing situation of conflict, only a few CSOs focus directly on supporting peace and peace processes. This can be attributed to the fact that Filipinos’ major concerns, especially in rural areas, are focused more on day-to-day survival and family- and community-related issues than larger national issues. They cannot immediately associate or see the link between their present issues and concerns and the peace process. In addition, there is also a lack of information and knowledge about the peace processes taking place in the country. The intention of this mapping is to identify possible key leaders and organisations in an attempt to ascertain how they perceive the ongoing peace negotiation between the GPH and NDFP, and to identify key issues in the conflict-affected areas that can influence the GPH-NDFP peace process. The research also seeks to ascertain what these leaders/organisations recommend should be done to sustain the peace negotiation and maintain their own interest in and willingness to commit to reviving, revitalising and sustaining a national peace movement that is supportive of the GPH-NDFP peace process.
Topic:
Human Rights, Self Determination, Social Justice, and Peace
Political Geography:
Asia and Philippines

28477. The humanitarian impact of the new dynamics of the armed conflict and violence in various regions of Colombia

Author:
Francisco Rey Marcos and Josephine Dubois
Publication Date:
08-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The peace agreement that is expected to be reached between the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia – People’s Army (FARC-EP) will end more than 50 years of armed conflict. It will also highlight new opportunities for the country, and also new violence dynamics that are especially present in remote regions of the country and some urban areas. The role of other armed groups besides the FARC-EP, especially post-demobilisation armed groups, is one of the greatest risks facing the consolidation of a peace process. While the peace talks in Havana were still ongoing, these actors reconfigured their operations and have been responsible for serious humanitarian impacts on some communities. Despite seeing improvements in many indicators (e.g. the homicide rate, acts of war, etc.), other more surreptitious activities such as threats, individual displacement, extortion and social control have increased, indicating that the humanitarian situation remains alarming. This should be a priority in post-agreement peace planning, since this type of violence has a more subtle humanitarian impact and there is the danger that it could become invisible. This report analyses these conflict dynamics, their possible evolution during the post-agreement stage, and their humanitarian and social consequences. It also highlights the need to improve monitoring systems and improve protection for affected communities.
Topic:
Violence, Peace, Humanitarian Crisis, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

28478. Agrarian reform and the difficult road to peace in the Philippine countryside

Author:
Danilo Carranza
Publication Date:
09-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Agrarian reform and conflict in the rural areas of the Philippines are closely intertwined. The weak government implementation of the Comprehensive Agrarian Reform Programme, inherent loopholes in the law, strong landowner resistance, weak farmers’ organisations, and the continuing espousal by the New People’s Army of its own agrarian revolution combine to make the government’s agrarian reform programme only partially successful in breaking up land monopolies. This is why poverty is still pronounced in many rural areas. The rise of an agrarian reform movement has significantly contributed to the partial success of the government’s agrarian reform programme. But the government has not been able to tap the full potential of this movement to push for faster and more meaningful agrarian reform. The agrarian reform dynamics between pro- and anti-agrarian reform actors create social tensions that often lead to violence, of which land-rights claimants are often the victims. This is exacerbated and in many ways encouraged by the government’s failure to fulfil its obligation to protect the basic human rights of land-rights claimants. This report outlines the pace and direction of agrarian reform in the Philippines and its role in fighting poverty and promoting peace in rural areas. It emphasises the importance of reform-oriented peasant movements and more effective government implementation to the success of agrarian reform. The report also asserts the need for the government and the armed left to respect human rights and international humanitarian law in promoting the full participation of land-rights claimants in shaping and crafting public policy around land rights.
Topic:
Agriculture, Poverty, Reform, and Peace
Political Geography:
Asia and Philippines

28479. Building the Peace. Rural Education and conflict in Colombia

Author:
Mabel Gonzalez Bustelo
Publication Date:
09-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The conflict that has affected Colombia for the last 50 years, has reinforced economic inequalities and widened the divide between urban and rural areas. It has also severely affected children’s access to quality education. There is now a three-year difference in learning levels between children in the same grade in urban and rural areas. To bridge this gap and ensure sustainable reintegration of children formerly associated with armed groups, considerable investments should be made to strengthen access to quality education in rural areas. This is a co-publication in Spanish published by NOREF and the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC).
Topic:
Agriculture, Poverty, Child Poverty, Conflict, Economic Inequality, Urban, and Rural
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

28480. The Making of a State: Transition in Montenegro

Author:
Igor Lukšic and Milorad Katnic
Publication Date:
10-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The first Montenegrin state started to take shape in the 8th century with the arrival of the Slavs and their mingling with the local population. Originally it was called Doclea, whose ruler received a royal insignia by the Pope Gregory VII in 1078 (Andrijaševi ´c and Rastoder 2006). Montenegro fell under the Ottomans in the late 15th century, but acted as a de facto independent state until formal recognition came at the Berlin Congress in 1878. Despite being on the victors’ side in the Balkan Wars and in World War I, it was annexed by Serbia and lost its sovereignty in 1918. After the Second World War it became a part of socialist Yugoslavia, where it remained until 1992. Montenegro’s political transition started in earnest after the Belgrade Agreement signed in March 2002. Montenegro held an independence referendum in 2006 and was subsequently admitted to the United Nations and other international organizations. Today Montenegro is engaged in accession talks with the European Union (EU).
Topic:
History, Elections, State, and Transition
Political Geography:
Europe and Montenegro