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28381. North Korea’s Nuclear Threat: How to Halt Its Slow but Steady Advance

Author:
Greg Thielmann
Publication Date:
02-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Arms Control Association
Abstract:
In the first five weeks of 2016, North Korea twice defied UN Security Council resolutions designed to stem its pursuit of nuclear weapons. On January 6, it conducted its fourth underground nuclear test; on February 7, it launched a satellite into space for the second time. These two events provided a vivid reminder that North Korea continues to make progress mastering the technology needed for developing long-range ballistic missiles and arming them with nuclear warheads. U.S. leaders have long sought to formulate and implement policies that would secure a denuclearized Korean peninsula, but these efforts have not been successful. U.S. political commentary on North Korea vacillates between taking at face value the regime’s exaggerated claims of technological prowess and reducing its leadership to cartoonish stereotypes. A clearer understanding of North Korea’s motives and the current status of its nuclear and missile programs can lead to a more realistic strategy for enhancing U.S. security. That strategy would involve using enhanced sanctions as leverage for achieving a halt in North Korea’s nuclear and missile testing and production of fissile material, but this can only happen through negotiations.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, United Nations, International Security, Military Affairs, and Nonproliferation
Political Geography:
United States and North Korea

28382. Silencing the Guns: Mediation practices and contemporary wars

Publication Date:
10-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
From 26 to 27 October 2016, the African Union (AU), in collaboration with the Government of the Arab Republic of Egypt, hosted the 7th AU High-level Retreat of Special Envoys and Mediators on the Promotion of Peace, Security and Stability in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt (Sharm El Sheikh Retreat). Co-organised by the African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD), and the Cairo Center for Conflict Resolution and Peacekeeping in Africa (CCCPA), the retreat brought together a range of senior representatives from the AU Commission (AUC), including the Commissioner for Peace and Security, Special Envoys, Special Representatives and distinguished mediators. Also in attendance were senior representatives of the continent’s regional economic communities (RECs) and regional mechanisms (RMs), as well as eminent officials from the United Nations (UN), European Union (EU), League of Arab States (LAS) and civil society organisations (CSOs).
Topic:
United Nations, International Security, Europe Union, Peace, African Union, and Arab League
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Middle East, and North Africa

28383. Aid for governance: How to support effective, accountable, and inclusive institutions for sustainable development?

Author:
Rachel M. Gisselquist and Danielle Resnick
Publication Date:
11-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Aiding government effectiveness in developing countries has been a priority issue for the international donor community since the 1990s. With the Paris Declaration in 1994, donors further committed to aiding government effectiveness in a manner consistent with local ownership and harmonization with national development objectives. These issues have received renewed attention in discussions surrounding the Sustainable Development Goals, which have highlighted the importance of effective governance and institutions.
Topic:
Development, Foreign Aid, Governance, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Global Focus

28384. Ethnic inequality and community activities in Indonesia

Author:
Christophe Muller
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
For the first time in Indonesia, we jointly analyse several economic statistics and ethnic diversity indicators at national and local levels. Nationally, we find very high levels of economic inequality, measured from household asset values or consumption expenditure. In contrast, the levels of ethnic diversity, while non-negligible, are much lower, whether they reflect fractionalization, polarization, or ethnic inequality based on individual living standards. All ethnic inequality indicators surged after the Asian economic crisis. Ethnic inequality based on education is much lower and decreasing. In panel data models, individual participation in community activities is found to be much determined by local patterns of ethnic diversity. Different dimensions of ethnic diversity generate distinct effects. Ethnic polarization stimulates participation in strategic activities. Instead, ethnic fragmentation and ethnic inequality depress most local activities. Finally, we provide tentative explanations of local ethnic inequality in regressions that show a mixed pattern of socioeconomic influences.
Topic:
Inequality, Ethnicity, Diversity, and Community
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

28385. Gender divide in agricultural productivity in Mozambique

Author:
João Morgado and Vincenzo Salvucci
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
In this study we analyze the gender gap in agricultural productivity in Mozambique applying the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition approach on data from four agricultural surveys between 2002 and 2012. We find that female-headed households are on average substantially less productive (about 20 per cent) than male-headed households, and that differences are more pronounced in the centre-north compared to the south. The gap persists even though female-headed households are disproportionally found in relatively smaller plots, and a pronounced inverse-size productivity relation exists. We could identify some of the most important drivers of this divide linked to differences in endowments. However, a larger proportion is accounted for by the structural part, potentially linked to technical efficiency, pure discrimination, or other unobservable characteristics.
Topic:
Agriculture, Gender Issues, and Inequality
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

28386. Characteristics of the Vietnamese business environment: Evidence from a SME survey in 2015

Author:
Kasper Brandt, John Rand, Smriti Sharma, Finn Tarp, and Neda Trifković
Publication Date:
11-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This is the sixth time that the collaborative small and medium enterprise (SME) panel survey has been conducted among formal and informal manufacturing firms in Viet Nam. The results of previous survey rounds, those of 2005, 2007, 2009, 2011, and 2013 were a motive for UNU-WIDER to approve and take the lead in collaboration with the Institute of Labour Science and Social Affairs (ILSSA) of the Ministry of Labour, Invalids and Social Affairs (MOLISA), the Department of Economics (DoE) of the University of Copenhagen, and the Central Institute of Economic Management (CIEM), to implement another survey in 2015. The 2015 fieldwork behind this report consisted of face-to-face interviews that were implemented in June, July, and August. Just over 2,600 small and medium-sized non-state enterprises operating in the manufacturing sector were interviewed in ten provinces, namely the cities of Ha Noi, Hai Phong and Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), and Ha Tay, Phu Tho, Nghe An, Quang Nam, Khanh Hoa, Lam Dong and Long An provinces. The present report is based on the information about enterprises that were interviewed since 2005 and new enterprises that were added as a replacement for those that exited the survey. The SME biannual surveys referred to above are a result of collaborative research efforts on collecting and analysing data representative of the private sector in Viet Nam. This means that not only large or formally registered enterprises are included in the survey. As such, the SME survey builds on the existing databases created through other initiatives in Viet Nam, aiming to collect data and gain an understanding of the SME dynamics in Viet Nam. The present report aims to provide researchers and policy makers with an overview of key facts from the 2015 survey round, comparing as appropriate with data from 2013 and earlier years. The report does not contain a complete description of the full range of information available in the dataset. We encourage readers to explore the questionnaires that were used in the collection of data (available online) to see all the issues addressed. Several in-depth studies of selected issues on the Vietnamese private sector economy, exploiting the database, are underway. Subsequent studies will make use of the fact that a sample of approximately 2,600 SMEs is available, including a representative panel dating back to 2005.
Topic:
Economics, Business, Statistics, and Survey
Political Geography:
Vietnam and Southeast Asia

28387. Trash Talk: Turning Waste into Work in Jordan’s Za’atari Refugee Camp

Author:
Soman Moodley
Publication Date:
08-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Syrian refugees have the capacity to provide key support for service delivery and the expertise to contribute to the expansion of new productive economic sectors. This paper highlights an innovative approach to solid waste management and income generation, and aims to promote further dialogue on the role that Syrians can play in the Jordanian economy.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Refugee Crisis, Displacement, Humanitarian Crisis, Community, and Empowerment
Political Geography:
Middle East, Syria, and Jordan

28388. The Caliphate’s Global Workforce: An Inside Look at the Islamic State’s Foreign Fighter Paper Trail

Author:
Brian Dodwell, Daniel Milton, and Don Rassler
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
This report contains an analysis of over 4,600 unique Islamic State personnel records that were produced by the group primarily between early 2013 and late 2014. The importance of this data for understanding the Islamic State and, in particular, the foreign fighter flow, cannot be overstated. To put it simply, it is the largest cache of primary source documents produced by the Islamic State available in the open-source as of this date. These particular documents were acquired by NBC News from an Islamic State defector and subsequently provided to the CTC (and other entities). This report provides a window into the organization’s global workforce, revealing information about foreign fighters’ countries of origin, citizenship, points of entry into Syria, marital status, skills and previous occupations, education levels, religious knowledge, fighting role preferences in the group, and previous jihadist experience. In addition to analyzing the data at the macro-level, the report also highlights numerous anecdotes of individual fighters. Taken together, the analysis in this report reveals an organization that is attempting to vet new members, manage talent effectively within the organization, and deal with an incredibly diverse pool of recruits.
Topic:
Terrorism, Radicalization, Islamic State, Recruitment, and Foreign Fighters
Political Geography:
Iraq, Europe, South Asia, Central Asia, Middle East, East Asia, Syria, and Southeast Asia

28389. Doku Umarov, Founder of the Caucasus Emirate: From Secularism to Jihadism (Jihadi Bios Project)

Author:
Michael Fredholm
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
The CTC is pleased to launch the publication of papers as part of a series devoted to the study of jihadist biographies. The purpose of this project is to contribute to the knowledge of the evolution of the jihadist landscape by exploring it through the lens of the worldviews and experiences of actors who have shaped it. While some states and organizations, wittingly or unwittingly, contributed to the growth of the jihadist enterprise, it may be argued that modern jihadism, as it continues to unfold, is also the product of individuals, who made it into the global phenomenon that it is. As we study the biographies of jihadis, we are faced with a world crowded with different and differing worldviews. Beneath the banner of jihad that seemingly unites jihadis worldwide is a world marked not just by cooperation between groups and individuals, but also by competition and divisions. Some of the jihadis who occupy that world are characterized by a commitment to idealistic goals, by acumen, skills, and agility; others are driven by sectarianism, criminal disposition, and opportunism; while others manifest an odd combination of all. That is why the actions emanating from the jihadist landscape are the results of an amalgam of strategy, sophisticated planning and targeting, randomness, and juvenile enthusiasm. It is for these reasons and more that the complexity of the jihadist landscape requires different layers of analyses and a rigorous and patient approach to the subject. In short, the study of jihadism is about both the “forest” and the “trees;” and this series of biographies is a study of the “trees” as they are situated in the broader “forest.”
Topic:
Terrorism, Secularism, Jihad, and Biography
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

28390. Communication Breakdown: Unraveling the Islamic State’s Media Efforts

Author:
Daniel Hamilton
Publication Date:
10-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
This report breaks down the Islamic State’s media activities through a two-fold approach. First, it examines a small number of declassified documents captured from the group’s predecessors to provide a baseline understanding its present-day media structure and operations. Second, through an examination of over 9,000 Islamic State official media products, this report offers detailed insight into what the group is saying and what a study of its propaganda can tell us about its strengths, weaknesses, and struggles. A number of findings emerge from these analyses. First, the Islamic State’s media network is adaptive and complex. Second, the group publishes products on a variety of themes, only one of which has to do with the violence for which the group is so well-known. Third, the frequency of the group’s products has declined significantly since its highpoint in the summer of 2015. Fourth, the Islamic State’s provincial media bureaus are not all equal in terms of their production content. Finally, although advances have been made in limiting the group’s media activities, there is still more than can be done to limit the group’s outreach efforts.
Topic:
Terrorism, Communications, Radicalization, Media, and Islamic State
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

28391. Remotely Piloted Innovation: Terrorism, Drones and Supportive Technology

Author:
Don Rassler
Publication Date:
10-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
In early October 2016, the group that calls itself the Islamic State killed two Kurdish soldiers with an explosive device hidden inside a drone. While terrorist groups have long had a fascination with drones and experimented with their use, the incident was a first for a terror group, and it potentially represents the leading edge of a wave of similar incidents that could follow in the months, years and decades ahead. Much has been made of the threat of terror use of drones, but little empirical and historical work has been done to support our understanding of this phenomenon and its evolution. This report seeks to address this gap by providing a review of, and framework to situate, cases in which terrorist entities have either shown a substantive interest in drones or have used them. It evaluates both individual use cases and the activity of groups that have used drones frequently enough to constitute their having a “program.” These cases are then complemented by a review of the creative ways that private citizens have used drones, in order to provide decisionmakers with a firmer baseline of both demonstrated terror capability and what lies within the immediate realm of possibility, given what has already been achieved by others. This report also includes an overview of new technologies that are likely to further complicate the scope of this developing threat.
Topic:
Terrorism, Al Qaeda, Drones, and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)
Political Geography:
Europe, South Asia, Middle East, Asia, and Colombia

28392. Structural Change in Wage Differentiation Patterns for Turkey in Terms of Working in the Same Industry

Author:
Bengi Yanık İlhan
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:
Altinbas University
Abstract:
This paper investigates the wage differentiation patterns in Turkey between couples who work in the same industry and those who work in different industries. The Turkish Household Labor Force Surveys from 2004 to 2014 are utilized as the main data. As the graphical representation verifies, regions can be grouped into three with respect to wave differentiation. In the first group, differentiation gap remains the same; for the second group, the gap increases; and for the last group, while the gap first decreases and disappears, it then increases again in favor of who the ones who work in the same industry. These findings are valid not only for females' but also males' mean hourly income. In the empirical analyses, the squared wage differences are clustered into three categories by using K-Means clustering method. Then, the behavior of each region changing from one cluster to the other are tracked and calculated with variations of this behavior. It is examined that not only eastern regions but also northern and landlocked regions changed their clusters during the last decade. In addition to that, their calculated variation of this behavior is higher compared to the ones for western, southern and seaside regions. If the variation is higher for the region, this is probably due to structural changes in those regions.
Topic:
Economics, Industry, Wage Income, and K-Means Clustering
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

28393. Forced population movements as a current ethical dilemma and the possibilities of collective action

Author:
C. Akça Ataç
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:
Altinbas University
Abstract:
The spirit of our times has been increasingly determined by refugee crisis and asylum institutions. If one could read the ongoing economic, political, environmental and demographic crises correctly, a refugee crisis would not have been treated as unexpected, unfortunate singular coincidence. A comprehensive, non-proscriptive approach with a collective, multilevel engagement must urgently be generated by the international community to create an all-encompassing legal consciousness. This paper seeks to delve into the question of the current refugee crisis from an historical point of view and recount the progress of the international refugee regime. In doing that it will also discuss the possibility of the launch of a collective action by the international community in the present. Refugee history is not progressive; it has not linearly proceeded towards comprehensive solutions. There are ruptures, retreats, changes of attitude -from positive to negative, from negative to inaction. Despite the growing global governance with the participation of international and non-governmental organizations, states are still the major actors in the refugee regime. The dominant role of the states in managing the refugee crisis creates an ethical dilemma, as is the case in every normative context state is involved. This paper, therefore, will finally assess the ethical dilemma unveiled by the recent EU-Turkey refugee deal.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Population, European Union, Refugees, and Asylum
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

28394. The Problematic of Savings: The Case of Turkey as an Emerging Market Economy

Author:
Emre Alkin
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:
Altinbas University
Abstract:
This study provides an analysis on the course of private savings in Turkish economy, which are considered to be the primary source of sustainable growth and development. It also discusses the way how growth model adopted by Turkey regulates the relationship between Public Expenditure, Taxes and Private Savings. Based on the results obtained from this analysis, it has been concluded that ever expanding public sector has a negative impact on private savings. As a long term solution, modifying or replacing the current growth model has been ofered. As a short term ofer, there is need to regulate the revenues and expenditures of all public institutions including the Central Government Budget with the support of the legislative authorities to eliminate the negative impact in question.
Topic:
Markets, Budget, Economy, Economic Growth, Tax Systems, Investment, and Public Spending
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

28395. The Impact of Print Media on Popular Culture: Umberto Eco’s Number Zero

Author:
Fatma Altınbaş Sarıgül
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:
Altinbas University
Abstract:
In the book published by Umberto Eco in 2015 called Numero Zero (Number Zero), on the basis of the assumption that the newspapers are able to establish various perceptions to the public in a conscious way, he has examined what kind of interventions some popular newspaper bosses have realized for the purpose of increasing their efciencies in the business world within the frame of a fction. According to Eco; popular culture is not in a sudden and unexpected structure (at least from its appearance) as it is in the cultural understanding of the modernism. By also taking the likes and demands of the wide masses it desires to be expanded into consideration, it aims a consensus between the culture producers and the culture consumers. In this way, it provides an easier and faster acceptance of the messages it sends by the masses. However, the motivation of the culture producers has derived from the market economy. The aimed thing is “proft”. Popular newspapers infict, transform and even make up the news in the cause of this proft. Eco operates by which methods the newspapers perform these destructions and reveals their tactics that direct the readers to certain assumptions with the quibbles. He tries to decipher the codes of the common popular perception delivered to the readers. According to Eco, “newspapers teach people how they should think; unfortunately, all we learn is fake and deformed”. Popular culture consists of a reference made by the fake that is replacing the truth to itself as mentioned in the simulation theory of Baudrillard, not a reality away from itself.
Topic:
Media, Umberto Eco, Popular Culture, and Newspapers
Political Geography:
Global Focus

28396. Hard Power versus Soft Power or a Balance between the Two?

Author:
Peter Volten
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
Many things have changed in Turkey within the last decade, but also in Brussels as to the political practises. This commentary seeks to answer whether Turkey and the EU can find and maintain a sensible balance between toughness and empathy, between considerations of hard power and soft power. Turkey is obviously an essential, regional player both economically and militarily. Geopolitics may not appear high on the agenda of the EU, but the situation in the Middle-East simply could not and cannot be ignored as a geopolitical challenge, one that might beg for acting in concert with Turkey. On the other side, Europe represents an attraction and example based on a long history and struggle for material wealth, technological and scientific progress as well as for the accomplished degree of democracy and the rule of law. More recently, however, EU soft power suffers a number of setbacks. We disown our most basic values of soft power and will lose impact in promoting a just, democratic order in the world. If the EU and its member states fail to recover from this set-back, we risk to fall back in the hard power game, also with potential and aspiring states.
Topic:
Politics, European Union, Democracy, Geopolitics, Rule of Law, and Soft Power
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

28397. Why Does The International Drug-Control System Fail?

Author:
Behsat Ekici
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
The international community has been building a drug-control system for over a century. The UN-led initiatives drafted very detailed conventions, political declarations, and plans of action. International institutions and governments have been allocating vast resources for national, regional, and global counter narcotics initiatives. Law-enforcement agents, judicial officers, diplomats, and demand-reduction experts devote enormous efforts to global drug-control efforts. However, the latest field studies clearly indicate that the global war on drugs has been lost on virtually every front. Drug consumption and drugrelated deaths have increased over the past three decades. Every year, many new psychoactive substances appear on the market. Precursor chemicals are not efficiently controlled. The drug supply consistently shifts to areas where law enforcement is weak and corrupt. Drug money has allowed the dark networks to exert an increasing influence on the governments in Latin America, Southwest Asia, Central Asia, Eastern Europe, and West Africa. The drug trade undermines global security by financing terrorism and insurgency. In this context, the United Nations’ goal of a “drug-free world” is far from being reached. This paper provides an insight as to why the international efforts to control the drug supply, drug demand, and drug-driven money have failed dramatically.
Topic:
Crime, United Nations, Narcotics Trafficking, International Community, Drugs, and International Crime
Political Geography:
Global Focus

28398. Violence and Security Concerns in Post-Conflict Northern Ireland

Author:
Imren Borsuk
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
Eighteen years after the Good Friday Agreement, Northern Ireland struggles with a lingering sense of insecurity. This article discusses the underlying reasons for a sense of insecurity and vulnerability in this post-conflict context. First, ongoing sporadic communal violence reactivates communal divisions and the psychological burden of “the Troubles.” The activities of spoiler paramilitary groups and sporadic communal troubles still fuel people’s anxiety about the possibility of renewed violence, as the history of political violence proves how these influences can be a destabilizing factor in inter-communal relations. Second, the unchanging patterns of political mobilization, based on the historical division of unionism and nationalism, reinforce the previous cleavages and continue to inform the boundaries of the communal divide. The political arena is still plagued by ethnic outbidding and intransigent party politicking, both of which pit communities against each other and keep the zero-sum bias between the groups alive. Third, the working-class communities that constituted the backbone of the political violence carry on the legacy of war with their continued paramilitary presence and legacy of sectarianism. The social vulnerabilities of working-class areas, such as continuing paramilitary presence, the legacy of sectarianism in segregated neighborhoods, persistent mistrust toward the police, and growing youth unemployment, need to be addressed in order to generate a long-term social infrastructure for peace.
Topic:
Security, Violence, and Post-Conflict
Political Geography:
Northern Ireland

28399. Reconciliation-oriented Leadership: Nelson Mandela and South Africa

Author:
Havva Kök Arslan and Yunus Turhan
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
Heroic leaders advocating for reconciliation has become particularly significant in the process of conflict resolution. This article analyses the case of South Africa’s national reconciliation experiences and Mandela’s iconic role in this process. It is claimed that Mandela’s reconciliation-oriented leadership, his personality, and endeavours have directly affected the promotion of intergroup reconciliation in South Africa in a positive way. The article’s analytic framework is built on Galtung’s Conflict Triangle and applied to reconciliation initiatives employed by Nelson Mandela in South Africa. The research question that this study focused on can be expressed as follows: What is the role of leaders in the process of national reconciliation? From this perspective, Mandela’s extraordinary efforts to strengthen national reconciliation in South Africa are examined by looking into his normative statements, symbolic acts, and judicial actions. The method proposed in this article contributes to the study of reconciliation at the national level, dealing with the normative statements and behaviours of those in power. In the final analysis, it was determined that there is a close relationship between the prospective success of the reconciliation process and a leader’s contribution to bringing about reconciliation in a society
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Leadership, Reconciliation, and Nelson Mandela
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

28400. The Paradox of Power Asymmetry: When and Why Do Weaker States Challenge US Hegemony?

Author:
Hong-Cheol Kim
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
Little is known about how, among weaker states, incentives to challenge the status quo are related to the expected response of the US as the system’s hegemon. In contrast to conventional wisdom that suggests militarized punishment can deter potential challengers, it is argued that weak but strongly motivated challengers can interpret the hegemon’s military intervention against adversaries as a window of opportunity to launch their own actions. Empirical results using Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) and binary time-seriescross-section (BTSCS) models reveal that weaker states possess incentives to challenge the international status quo when the hegemon is preoccupied with prior foreign policy commitments, most notably war. In other words, weaker states dissatisfied with the status quo are more likely to challenge the hegemon when it is preoccupied with prior military commitments. They do so because war involvement distracts the hegemon, drains its capabilities and resolve, and opens up a window of opportunity for weaker states to issue challenges. In addition, weaker states that have an alliance portfolio dissimilar to that of the hegemon are more likely than others to initiate Militarized Interstate Disputes. Theoretically, this paper provides microfoundations to answer the question of why weaker parties instigate asymmetric conflicts when it might seem irrational to do so.
Topic:
International Relations, Hegemony, Conflict, Power, and Asymmetric Relations
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America