Topic: Security / Publication Year: within 10 Years

151. Generation Jihad: The Profile and Modus Operandi of Minors Involved in Recent Islamist Terror Plots in Europe

Author:: Erik Hacker
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: Europe has largely avoided major jihadi attacks in recent years, though experts and officials from the United Nations as well as the Five Eyes intelligence alliance have repeatedly warned of the heightened terror threat increasingly linked to a new generation of teenagers, who radicalize primarily online. Yet, little is known about the specific profiles and modi operandi of these underage suspects. As this trend shows no signs of waning, a clearer understanding of these minors’ specific characteristics is vital in order to adapt counterterrorism responses and sustain the current high rate of foiled plots. This article offers an in-depth account of the background and attack planning behaviors of 44 minors who planned to carry out jihadi terror attacks in Europe since 2022 but were arrested before they could act. By comparing their characteristics to adult terror suspects, it highlights the distinctive traits of this new generation of Islamist extremists and explores the strategic implications for counterterrorism efforts moving forward.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Islamism, and Youth
Political Geography:: Europe

152. A View from the CT Foxhole: Richard Feakes, Former Australian Ambassador for Counter-Terrorism

Author:: Don Rassler and Sean Morrow
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: Richard Feakes served as Australia’s Ambassador for Counter-Terrorism from May 2023 to November 2024. Prior to that, he was the Commonwealth Deputy Counter Terrorism Coordinator, Australia’s Ambassador to Afghanistan, and Deputy Head of Mission in Iraq. He has served in a number of strategic and national security positions across the Australian government, including as Assistant Secretary for Afghanistan and Pakistan and as a Senior Adviser within the Prime Minister’s Department.
Topic:: Security, Counter-terrorism, Partnerships, Interview, and Threat Assessment
Political Geography:: Australia and Indo-Pacific

153. Understanding China’s New Counterterrorism Ambitions in Africa

Author:: Jason Warner
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: China has recently been pursuing a much more aggressive stance in African security affairs, including playing a more engaged role in counterterrorism (CT). Where is China engaged in CT in Africa, and by what means? What challenges would China face in engaging more robustly in African CT? Most importantly, why is China newly expressing interest in engaging in the African CT landscape at this particular moment? In the main, this piece argues that despite ostensible rationales related to self-defense of economic interests and solidarity with African states, at its core, Beijing’s primary motivations for entering the African CT space are to diversify its means of influence in Africa beyond its historical “economics-first” approach. Recognizing that engaging in African CT is a high-risk but potentially high-reward activity (which other global powers have recently engaged in with mixed results), Beijing likely believes it has a new genre of CT assistance—less kinetic, more economic, and rooted in equitable partnerships—that represents a fundamentally new and productive means of gaining influence in Africa. Yet, China faces challenges in its African CT pursuits, including reconciling whether its cautious ethos can stomach the turbulent landscape of African terrorism; how to deal with a saturated African CT space; and how not to fall victim to the same pitfalls as other global powers that have recently engaged in African CT. Nevertheless, if China can prove that its cautious non-military-first approach is fundamentally different from existing CT value propositions from external states, Beijing could deeply rival, and potentially replace, Washington as the partner of choice for security cooperation in Africa.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Counter-terrorism, Strategic Competition, Foreign Influence, and Security Cooperation
Political Geography:: Africa, China, and Asia

154. Militant Violence in Jammu and Kashmir Post-Abrogation of Article 370

Author:: Animesh Roul
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: This article presents a chronological and thematic analysis of militant violence in Jammu and Kashmir from the abrogation of Article 370 of the Indian Constitution in August 2019 to July 2025. It traces three distinct phases: an initial decline in attacks due to lockdowns and security restrictions (2019-2020); a resurgence marked by hybrid militancy, targeted killings, and intimidation of civilians (2021-2023); and a lethal escalation involving high-profile and audacious assaults, intensified counterterrorism operations, and cross-border tensions (2024-2025). The April 2025 Pahalgam massacre—which killed 26 people, mostly Hindus—marked a turning point, prompting India’s limited military offensive Operation Sindoor against militant bases in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, followed by Operation Mahadev to track and eliminate the militants involved in the violence. The article examines these developments to assess the evolving threat, highlighting how militancy has shifted toward hybrid façade units backed by Pakistan-based legacy terror groups.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Territorial Disputes, Violence, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Pakistan, India, and Jammu and Kashmir

155. Saudi and Emirati engagement in Iraq: From sectarianism to investment

Author:: Máté Szalai
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: In addition to the relative stabilisation of Iraq’s security situation, the growing engagement of Gulf states can be attributed to the learning process and changing attitudes in Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and elsewhere concerning their various failed attempts to shore up influence in Iraq in the post-2003 period. Until the rise and defeat of Islamic State (IS), most Gulf states pursued a heavily sectarian approach to deal with security risks such as next-door instability and Iranian influence. This tended to amount to supporting Sunni political and militant organisations in Iraq’s periphery against the Iran-backed Shia-dominated political centre. However, the ‘defeat’ of IS, the fragmentation and polarisation of the Shia political landscape, and the changes in Saudi foreign policy implemented by Mohamed bin Salman (MbS) enabled a shift in focus to broader economic and security engagement. This brief aims to interpret and map current Saudi and Emirati efforts to build political, security and economic influence in Iraq and the effects of such efforts on the evolution and stability of Iraq’s current political settlement. An overview of the general Saudi and Emirati strategy towards Iraq since 2017 is followed by a mapping of the main security, political and economic engagement of the two countries after 2020, together with a broad assessment of their effects. The paper aims to contribute to a European re-evaluation of the Gulf states’ strategy towards Iraq. It also assesses the effects of this strategy on the evolution of the Iraqi political system.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Sectarianism, Economy, Economic Growth, Investment, and Engagement
Political Geography:: Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates

156. The Bay of Bengal Countries’ Domestic and Regional Sources of Maritime Governance Concepts in the 21st Century

Author:: Tomasz Łukaszuk
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: The primary aim of the article is to analyse domestic and regional sources of maritime governance in the Bay of Bengal in the 21st century from a constructivist viewpoint. It offers a comparative examination of domestic and external factors shaping maritime governance in the region, illustrating how Kantian-style anarchy prevails over Hobbesian and Lockean models. The article explores the roots of the maritime culture of sharing, cooperation, and trade in the Bay of Bengal, which stems from Hindu, Buddhist, and Muslim traditions and aligns with the Kantian model. The recognition of the agency of seas and oceans by Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, and Thailand is analysed within the context of natural disasters and their role in safeguarding the security of the Sea Lanes of Communication. They regard the sea as an integral and objective part of their lives, intertwined with the fabric of maritime societies. Despite the political diversity in the region, domestic and regional factors play a crucial and positive role in shaping maritime policies, fostering confidence in the importance of developing international cooperation in the maritime sector. The article is divided into four sections. The first – introduction – outlines the main ideas, research questions, hypotheses, and the structure of the article. The following section explains the conceptual framework, presenting the constructivist perspective on anarchy in international relations and its relevance to the maritime domain. The third section provides a detailed analysis of regional and domestic influences on the maritime domain and maritime governance concepts in the Bay of Bengal, offering a thorough understanding of the topic. Finally, the article concludes by summarizing all assumptions and addressing the research questions.
Topic:: Security, Governance, Maritime, and Blue Economy
Political Geography:: Bay of Bengal

157. The State(s) of Foreign Information Operations

Author:: Krystyna Sikora and Bret Schafer
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: It is easy to dismiss foreign information operations as playing out at the national level, designed to influence federal policymakers and Beltway insiders. But these threats transcend the “Beltway Bubble”. Increasingly, foreign nation-state actors are running operations that exploit trust in local sources and impact state and local communities. US adversaries like Russia, China, and Iran are refining their information tools and tactics to better target individuals and exacerbate divisions within the United States to destabilize the country at home and weaken it on the world stage. These nation states are increasingly exploiting domestic actors to launder and manipulate content that originates in Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran and ultimately reaches American audiences who have no way of knowing they are on the receiving end of foreign information operations. They are also experimenting with generative artificial intelligence (AI), which, according to the US intelligence community, has allowed nation-state actors to “improve and accelerate” their operations, potentially enabling them to reach more Americans with more targeted content. Adversaries understand that state and local governments and communities are foundational to the strength of American democracy, so it is no surprise that they have targeted individuals and issues at the local level. In some cases, adversarial nations seek favorable outcomes around local policy issues; in others, they use local debates as Trojan horses to advance their broader geopolitical agendas. In others still, they attempt to influence views on the integrity of US elections and institutions or disenfranchise American citizens in specific communities to destabilize and erode trust in American democracy. But in all cases, American democratic discourse and the country’s information space—messy as they can sometimes be—are being used as primary vectors to advance foreign interests. If Americans lack that understanding, their communities—and the country—are left vulnerable. This report outlines an example of a foreign information operation targeting each of the 50 US states and the District of Columbia. Each case study indicates the foreign threat actor (if known) and explains the tools, tactics, and motivations for targeting Americans at the state and local level.
Topic:: Security, Threat Assessment, Foreign Influence, and Information Manipulation
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Eurasia, Asia, North America, and United States of America

158. A Coalition of the Willing for Ukraine: Europe tries to return to the negotiations table

Author:: Niklas Ebert and Claudia Major
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: The new buzzword in European defense is the “coalition of the willing”. Proposed by France and the United Kingdom in February 2025, the initiative is meant to support Ukraine’s sovereignty by upholding a ceasefire in the country and by deterring Russia once the fighting has stopped. So far, however, there is neither a ceasefire nor has Russia signaled acceptance for Western troops in Ukraine. The Europeans have started military planning although pledges remain limited. But there is much discussion about Europe’s taking responsibility for Ukraine, especially since the second Donald Trump administration appears to be redefining its commitment to European security and supporting an end to the war largely on Russia's terms. The discrepancy between rhetoric and action puts Ukraine’s and Europe’s security, and the latter’s credibility, at risk. To better understand the gap, GMF experts assessed the different national perspectives across North America and Europe (including Ukraine) on the value and probability of a coalition of the willing for Ukraine and potential national contributions to it. Their analyses provide an overview of the variety of European positions and explore the likeliness of the coalition’s success. Each expert was given three sets of questions to guide their analysis: Does the country’s government support the idea of a coalition of the willing in Ukraine? Is there a national consensus? What tasks should this coalition have? Is the country willing to participate or contribute in another way? Why? The experts analyze the thinking in their chosen countries and offer no personal opinions. The analyses are based on public statements and confidential interviews.
Topic:: Security, European Union, Negotiation, Transatlantic Relations, Russia-Ukraine War, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, and Baltic States

159. Germany's Role in a Changing Global Order

Author:: Georgina Wright, Tobias Spöri, Joschka Fischer, Julia Friedrich, Tobias Bunde, Dhruva Jaishankar, Karsten Jung, and Carsten Cramer
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: “Germany’s Role in a Changing Global Order” comprises a series of essays addressing Germany’s readiness to adapt to current geopolitical realities. This anthology is the product of several workshops organized by GMF and the Alfred Landecker Foundation on the Zeitenwende, or “turning point”, which marked a major change in Germany’s approach to its security after Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The essays explore Germany's strategic culture, its responsibility for a free and sovereign Ukraine, and its role in the EU and the Indo-Pacific region. They also examine the ways in which Germany can move beyond its "comfort zone” and the importance of social resilience.
Topic:: Security, European Union, Geopolitics, Transatlantic Relations, and International Order
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

160. Lessons in Resilience: Moldova’s Response to Russia’s Hybrid Interference

Author:: Alina Doroftei
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: Following the pro-EU outcome of the 2024 presidential election and constitutional referendum, Russia intensified its hybrid campaign against Moldova for the 2025 parliamentary elections. The aim was clear: destabilize the government, weaken public trust in democratic processes, derail Moldova’s EU accession path, and bring to power pro-Moscow actors. Russia deployed a broad set of tactics, including political proxies, oligarchic networks, disinformation, illicit financing, cyberattacks, and attempts at street-level disruption. Despite the sophistication of these measures and the outsourcing to third-country actors, Moldova’s institutions, civil society, and media responded decisively through rapid exposure, dismantling of interference networks, and transparent public communication. The country’s international partners played an important role in bolstering its resilience. The success of the pro-EU Party of Action and Solidarity, which won another parliamentary majority, if reduced, dealt a heavy blow to Moscow and its allied oligarchs. Russia’s interference was part of a long-term multi-layered destabilization campaign abusing democratic freedoms. At its core, it sought to normalize the perception that Moldova could not conduct a fair, sovereign vote while empowering pro-Russia or anti-establishment forces. Ultimately, the strategy relied on mercenaries, corrupt networks, and short-term political technologies that lacked broad appeal. Moldova’s legislative and institutional reforms curbing illicit financing and safeguarding electoral integrity blunted these tactics, although uneven judicial interventions related to the exclusion of certain parties also risked casting a shadow over the process. There are now three main priorities for Moldova’s democracy. First, Moldova must consolidate institutional readiness against hybrid threats and restore public trust, especially in the judiciary. The swift interagency response around the elections should be developed into a permanent, institutionalized framework. Clearly defined roles for the Supreme Security Council, the Strategic Communication Centre, and the Crisis Management Centre are essential. Second, the fight against polarization and erosion of public trust must be intensified. Strengthening communication capacities, working with civil society experts, promoting digital literacy, and cooperating with independent watchdogs and platforms are all needed to counter disinformation and coordinated inauthentic behavior. There is a risk of civic pluralism shrinking under the pressure of malicious lawsuits, polarization, and economic constraints. Platforms could be established that provide civic actors with timely access to legal aid, cyber defense, and more sustainable funding. Third, international engagement with Moldova must be sustained and predictable. Following the successful completion of its EU accession screening in September, negotiations need to be fasttracked. With US assistance cut, the EU and other donors need to step in more consistently, focusing on long-term core funding for civil society organizations and media. Moldova’s experience should also inform EU-wide resilience mechanisms, including developing new bilateral and cross-border cooperation targeting mainly inauthentic online behavior and illegal political financing. Moldova’s elections have showed that determined institutions, an active civil society, and international solidarity can resist Russia’s hybrid campaigns. Yet resilience remains fragile. Sustained reforms, economic development, societal cohesion, and long-term donor commitment are indispensable for consolidating Moldova’s democratic path and for ensuring stability in a region that remains a target of Moscow’s disruptive strategies.
Topic:: Security, Elections, European Union, and Resilience
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Moldova

161. Poland at a Crossroads? Strategic Choices Amid Shifting Transatlantic Security Dynamics

Author:: Marcin Fatalski and Wojciech Michnik
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: Poland stands at a pivotal moment, navigating domestic political transitions while adapting to profound changes in the transatlantic security landscape. The outcome of key elections (presidential in 2025 and parliamentary in 2027) will shape the country’s strategic direction, as NATO and the EU confront some of the most significant challenges in their history. A second Trump presidency marks a turning point for European security, amplifying EU-sceptical forces and reshaping the regional balance of power. This Strategic Update examines the key domestic and international factors influencing Poland’s political and strategic decision-making, and Poland’s role in the evolving European security architecture – especially in times of the resurgent populist sentiments on both sides of the Atlantic and increasingly aggressive behaviour of the Russian Federation.
Topic:: Security, NATO, European Union, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Poland

162. Encounters with Bulgarian State Security

Author:: Jonathan Rickert
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: Bulgaria today is a parliamentary democracy and EU and NATO member. It maintains friendly, constructive relations with the US. It was not always so, however — as recently as the late 1980s, Bulgaria had a slavishly oligarchic communist regime, was a loyal ally of the Soviet Union, and a Warsaw Pact member.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Memoir, and Soviet Union
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Bulgaria

163. Aftershocks from Gaza: From Local to Global Consequences (Part 1)

Author:: Institute for the Study of Diplomacy Working Group
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Abstract:: The grotesque attacks by Hamas on October 7, 2023, and Israel’s subsequent military campaign in Gaza have upended long-standing assumptions about regional order. The Middle East’s previous reliance on a US-led security framework has given way to a fragmented, multi-aligned landscape in which middle powers pursue their interests, while the Palestinian issue—long marginalized—has returned to the center of regional and global diplomacy. Israel has secured tactical military gains but at the cost of increasing diplomatic isolation, while conditions in Gaza have fueled global demands for a sustainable political solution. Iran, Hezbollah, and Syria face profound setbacks, while Turkey and the Arab Gulf states seek to expand influence without the means to dominate. China and Russia remain cautious players, unwilling or unable to shape the conflict’s outcome. For the United States, the Gaza war poses a strategic dilemma. Despite efforts to broker ceasefires and secure hostages, Washington has been unable—or unwilling—to exert decisive leverage on Israel. The Biden and Trump administrations alike have struggled to articulate a coherent, sustainable strategy that balances US interests in security, energy, stability, and credibility. The ISD Gaza Report is organized in two parts: Part I: A ground assessment of the regional shifts since October 7, with particular focus on Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as the reemergence of Palestine as the central unresolved question in Middle East politics, and the role of regional states. Part II: A deeper analysis of Iran’s position and prospects, scenarios for regional order, and US policy options, culminating in concrete recommendations for advancing stability while protecting US strategic interests. Participants underscored that any durable path forward begins and ends with Palestine and the Palestinians. US policymakers must adapt to a regional order defined not by hegemonic control but by contested pluralism and assertive middle powers. Strategic clarity, consistent diplomacy, and credible leverage are essential if Washington hopes to pursue its interests amid the aftershocks from Gaza—and not merely react to them.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Hamas, Palestinians, October 7, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

164. Christians in the New Syria: Accepted, But At-Risk

Author:: Aaron Y. Zelin
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Although some Christians have been targeted post-Assad, these incidents are hardly an attempted "genocide," but rather part of the broader internal security challenge affecting all communities in Syria, including the majority population.
Topic:: Security, Minorities, Syrian War, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Post-Conflict, and Christians
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

165. Electoral Dynamics in post-2003 Iraq: Systemic Reforms, Security Challenges, and External Influence

Author:: Fatih Oğuzhan İpek
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Journal of Middle Eastern Studies
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: Since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003, Iraq’s political trajectory has been shaped by systemic reforms, security challenges, and external interventions. Parliamentary elections serve as a key measure of Iraq’s democratic governance, revealing persistent issues such as electoral system debates, pre-election violence, political fragmentation, and foreign influence from actors like the US and Iran. Low voter turnout, weak election security, and recurring allegations of fraud have further eroded public trust. The protracted government formation process, driven by sectarian divisions and external meddling, has reinforced political instability. This study examines these patterns by using the process tracing method to provide a comprehensive understanding of Iraq’s electoral landscape and its broader implications for governance. The election process is divided into three timelines and analyzed before, during, and after the elections. Drawing on news and reports on Iraq as well as speeches by Iraqi figures, the study argues that seven patterns embedded in systemic reforms, security challenges, and external interventions have overwhelmed Iraq’s electoral processes and democratic governance since 2003.
Topic:: Security, Reform, Elections, Domestic Politics, Parliament, and Ali al-Sistani
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and United States of America

166. Securing the Future: The US-Maldives Defense Partnership and Regional Stability

Author:: Matthew House
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The defense relationship between the United States and the Maldives has evolved significantly over the years, culminating in a robust partnership characterized by mutual interests and shared security concerns. This article examines the historical context of this partnership, the bolstering of relations of the current decade, and the future outlook for this critical defense relationship.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Partnerships, and Regional Stability
Political Geography:: North America, Maldives, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

167. Debating American Primacy in the Middle East

Author:: Marc Lynch, Richard K. Hermann, Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Dana El Kurd, and Elham Fakhro
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:: In September 2024, POMEPS and the Mershon Center for International Studies at the Ohio State University convened a workshop with regional experts and international relations theorists to debate the nature of American primacy in the Middle East. The papers in this collection range widely over theoretical approaches and empirical examples to bring out the assumptions and implications of different perspectives. The discussions were shaped by the shadow of Israel’s war on Gaza, in all of its moral and strategic dimensions, with sharp disagreements over the extent to which this represented a fundamental break with or continuity with prior trajectories. We are delighted to present POMEPS Studies 54: Debating American Primacy in the Middle East and hope that it helps to reframe and sharpen the critical ongoing debates about US foreign policy, global order, and the Middle East.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Cold War, Development, Hegemony, Authoritarianism, Liberalism, Engagement, Unipolarity, Multipolarity, International Order, Russia-Ukraine War, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

168. Syria After Assad

Author:: André Bank, Marc Lynch, Wendy Pearlman, Ali Hamdan, Haian Dukhan, and Sean Lee
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:: Many developments during the past year have given rise to a host of crucial questions about the future of Syria and the Syrian people. To explore them, the Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS) exchanged with the Arab Political Science Network (APSN), launched a call for papers, and selected more than a dozen emerging scholars to participate in an intensive online workshop in mid-September 2025. Based in eight different countries, many of these researchers are Syrian, and most have years of research experience on Syria or Syrian diasporic communities. The papers resulting from the workshop provide fresh insight into a range of critical issues: decentralization and state consolidation, sectarian violence, refugee return, security sector reform, transitional justice, economic reconstruction, and more.
Topic:: Security, Governance, Reform, Transitional Justice, Syrian War, State, Disability, Decentralization, Autonomy, Tribes, Bashar al-Assad, and Post-Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

169. Russia Transitions to Nuclear Intimidation

Author:: Arseny Sivitsky and Alexander Taranov
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Since the launch of Moscow’s large-scale war against Ukraine in 2022, Russia has consistently escalated its nuclear posture from a predominantly defensive deterrence model toward offensive nuclear deterrence and intimidation. Russian offensive nuclear deterrence goes beyond signaling and prescribes demonstrative, selective, or limited nuclear strikes against selected critical facilities to instill fear among Western countries of large-scale and potentially uncontrolled nuclear escalation. Predeployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons and strategic offensive systems in Belarus, updates to the 2024 Basic Principles of State Policy on Nuclear Deterrence, and preparations to resume nuclear testing manifest and support a practical transition to this concept. The Kremlin’s preparations to resume nuclear testing were intended to reinforce the credibility of Russian nuclear threats and technically prepare for the potential nuclear weapons use in combat conditions.
Topic:: Security, Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, Russia-Ukraine War, and Intimidation
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

170. Security Transformations in Southern Syria: Authority, Armed Networks, and Foreign Intervention

Author:: Abdullah Al-Jabassini
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: Southern Syria—comprising Quneitra, Daraa, and Sweida Governorates—has long been a volatile border region. The collapse of the Assad regime on 8 December 2024 initially inspired optimism and hopes for stability. Yet the region quickly entered a period of profound political and security transformation. Viewed in a broader historical context, many of the security challenges observed today in the southern region are not entirely new. They have deep roots in the wartime period and in the coercive and manipulative policies implemented by the Assad regime after its return to the region in July 2018, albeit in forms and patterns that have been reshaped, reconfigured, and reproduced after its collapse. Foreign intervention, too, is far from recent: regional and international actors have long influenced and exacerbated instability in the south. Situated within this historical and geopolitical context and drawing on a mixed-methods approach—including in-depth interviews with a diverse range of local actors and two original datasets documenting armed groups and violent incidents—this research paper provides a nuanced, context-specific analysis of the complex security dynamics in Daraa, Quneitra, and Sweida Governorates. The paper pursues three main objectives. First, it offers a historical overview of the security environment under the Assad regime, from its return to the region in 2018 until its collapse in December 2024. Second, it examines the current security challenges across the three governorates during Syria’s political transition, with particular focus on the modalities and impacts of Israeli intervention, the underlying causes and patterns of violence, and the conditions facilitating persistent drug trafficking into Jordan. Third, this paper probes the incentives, constraints, and strategic preferences of relevant domestic, regional, and international actors in relation to two externally driven approaches to stabilization: a potential Russian redeployment to the south and the prospects for a U.S.-mediated Syrian-Israeli security arrangement. Findings reveal that domestic and external factors shape security outcomes as much as state authority in Daraa, Quneitra, and Sweida. Israeli intervention reshapes the security environment, constrains state authority, and empowers local actors. Within this fragmented landscape, the resurgence of violence reflects an interplay of wartime legacies, unresolved rivalries, resilient armed networks, and widespread proliferation of weapons. State efforts to dismantle armed networks and assert control face significant challenges; in some instances, interventions are modest, generate grievances, or provoke local resistance. At the same time, militarized drug-trafficking networks exploit weak state presence, drug stockpiles, and adaptive smuggling methods to maintain operations across the border into Jordan. Foreign intervention continues to be a central factor, simultaneously generating instability while shaping any proposed approach to stabilization. U.S.-backed Israeli-Syrian talks and potential Russian redeployment each offer opportunities to reduce volatility, but both create dependencies on external mediation and influence the exercise of state authority. These overlapping dynamics produce a deeply unstable environment, where each factor reinforces the others, and persistent challenges for stabilization endure throughout the transitional period.
Topic:: Security, Armed Forces, Foreign Interference, Post-Conflict, and Political Transition
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

171. The Maldives’ Development-Focused Foreign Engagements and India’s Security Interests

Author:: Athaulla ("Atho") Rasheed
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Australian Institute of International Affairs (AIIA)
Abstract:: India’s role in the Maldives’ security is indispensable. By aligning its external partnerships with India’s regional strategy, the Maldives can ensure mutual security without compromising its sovereignty.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Development, Sovereignty, Partnerships, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, and Maldives

172. Trump's pivot to the Middle East

Author:: Zeina AlShaib and Ibrahim Al-Assil
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: In a repeat of his 2017 visit to Saudi Arabia, President Donald Trump is once again headed to the Middle East for the first official foreign trip of his second term. The decision to travel to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates underscores the priority the president places on strengthening strategic, security, and economic ties with regional partners. What deals will Trump be able to seal during his trip to the Gulf? This on-the-record briefing featured Daniel Benaim, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Arabian Peninsula Affairs and Associate Fellow at the Middle East Institute and Ibrahim Al-Assil, Senior Fellow at MEI and a Professorial Lecturer at George Washington University. Our experts examined the potential for Trump to strengthen US ties with a region that has undergone significant geopolitical shifts since his last term in office and explored the administration's renewed focus on the Middle East. They assessed prospects for reshaping the US-Gulf relationship for the 21st century, navigating regional realignments, and expanding the Abraham Accords, among other major issues.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Donald Trump, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and UAE

173. Foreign Policy of China: Pursuing the Resources in Afghanistan

Author:: Naqibullah Mashwani
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: China, a major power playing the peripheral diplomacy to bring developing countries to a table of dialogues, negotiations and international conferences to express their interests and form new relations.Thus, it has always been friendly and supportive to Afghanistan; providing humanitarian aid, investing in infrastructure, and extracting natural resources. However, China spent more on the minerals of Afghanistan during the new acting government than in the previous government. China was not deeply involved economically with the former government though they had signed some significant agreements.This was also one of the reasons China did not resist and took part in the 20 years long war in Afghanistan, instead, China supported, hosted and mediated Taliban. After the fall of Kabul and the return of the Taliban, China turned its policy and filled the vacuum, gave them de facto recognition and backed them in terms of security and economic development. This paper deeply explores the foreign policy of China towards Afghanistan and how they invested in extracting natural resources, infrastructure and tightened major economic agreements with the Taliban and contributed to the internal security and stability.China, a pioneer in oil extraction in Afghanistan has signed significant agreements and contracts with the interim government of Afghanistan for mineral extraction and refinery development.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Natural Resources, and Taliban
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, China, and Asia

174. Arms Race in the Indian Ocean: Redefining Strategic Stability

Author:: Kanwal Hayat, Anas Bin Tariq, and Malik Waqar Aslam
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The Indian Ocean has become an epicenter for increasingly expanding arms races, with significant far-reaching implications for the region's strategic balance. India, China, the United States, as well as region-specific stakeholders like Pakistan, are expanding their naval forces at an accelerated rate, motivated by security objectives as well as deep-rooted distrust. Building naval fleets, submarine capabilities, as well as military alliances reflects the quintessential security dilemma actions of one nation in trying to secure safety, results in defensive reactions from others, triggering spirals of increasing militarization. This paper draws on the lens of neo-realism in analyzing how hegemonic desires as well as power dynamics between leaders are leading towards regional tensions. Thomas Hobbes' timeless observation that 'the condition of man is a condition of war of everyone against everyone' aptly reflects the competitive nature of the Indian Ocean's strategic environment. In conducting documentary analysis, the research considers this race for weapons in the neorealist prism, with particular emphasis on the international system's inherently anarchical structure as well as states' insatiable demand for power as well as security. In providing us with a map towards stability, the paper also draws on elements of cooperation in terms of neo-liberalism, calling for cooperative security strategies such as the role of international institution, trust-building measures, as well as economic interdependence that can assist in lowering conflict risk as well as increasing strategic stability
Topic:: Security, Neoliberalism, Strategic Stability, Arms Race, and Neorealism
Political Geography:: South Asia and Indian Ocean

175. Strategic Vulnerabilities in Space: U.S.-China Militarization and the Risks to Global Strategic Stability

Author:: Ameema Khalid
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: This study investigates the militarization of space by the United States and China using the theoretical frameworks of technological determinism and the security dilemma. Data analysis of policy documents, military doctrines, and strategic literature reveals how technological advancements, mutual distrust, and dual-use technologies have transformed space into a contested domain. Findings indicate that the lack of international regulations and transparency exacerbates the risks of miscalculation and conflict. The study suggests actionable measures, including binding treaties, enhanced transparency, and conflict resolution mechanisms to promote peaceful space exploration. This research contributes to the broader discourse on space security by offering insights into managing militarization challenges in a rapidly advancing technological era.
Topic:: Security, Science and Technology, Space, Strategic Stability, and Militarization
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

176. Global Health Security: Challenges and Opportunities in the Current Geopolitical Climate

Author:: Rebecca Katz
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: The global COVID-19 crisis and the shifting geopolitical climate are challeng- ing global cooperation in health security. New alliances amongst nations are forming: lower and middle-income country blocs are strengthening, while some nations are reorienting their disease governance away from multilateral institu- tions and towards regional entities. Meanwhile, bilateral funding in global health is drying up, and global financing mechanisms, including the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria (The Global Fund), Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance, and the Pandemic Fund, are all competing for the same, shrinking pot of development assistance dollars. Member States of the World Health Organization agreed to the text of a new international agreement to strengthen global governance of pandemics, but the negotiations were strained by issues of equity and access to medical countermeasures—issues that will continue to be debated even after the agreement is formally adopted. All these events are reshaping the global order and challenging the future of global health security. This article reviews key components of global health security, discusses evolving disease threats, addresses recent developments in the field, and presents chal- lenges, opportunities, and predictions for the future. Global health security (GHS) must be considered as part of the broader landscape of international relations and foreign policy. This consideration is critical because the state of international politics impacts the stability of global health security. The unpredictability of world leaders, potential future vulner- abilities from cyberattacks, trade disputes, unsustainable migration flows, and continued political divisions within nations all destabilize the current world order.1 More specifically, humanitarian crises in the Middle East, ongoing con- flict between Ukraine and Russia, and escalating tensions between China and Taiwan have all shaken the foundations of international cooperation. These geopolitical tensions influence the creation and effectiveness of collaborative, multilateral health efforts.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Geopolitics, Multilateralism, COVID-19, and Global Health
Political Geography:: Global Focus

177. Mediating Governance in Sinjar: Bridging the Public-Authority Gap

Author:: Khogir Wirya and Dlawer Ala'Aldeen
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: More than a decade after the liberation of Sinjar from ISIS, the district remains engulfed in political paralysis, stalled recovery, and a protracted governance deficiency. Despite recurrent pledges and multiple locally and internationally backed interventions, neither the federal nor the provincial governments have been able to institute effective mechanisms of governance. The on-going administrative stalemate and obstructive security dynamics have led to a disconnect between the public and the authorities, undermined prospects for communal reconciliation, and generated structural impediments to a sustainable aid provision, recovery and economic development. Without decisive, depoliticized, and inclusive action, Sinjar risks remaining a fragmented, marginalized district mired in mistrust. In an attempt to develop practical solutions for bridging the citizen-authority gap and mediating governance, the Middle East Research Institute (MERI) conducted an extensive field study, including a comprehensive literature review, surveying 656 current residents of Sinjar and internally displaced persons, and interviewing 78 key informants. These were followed by 11 intra-community focus group discussions and two inter-community dialogue sessions, leading to the creation of a new platform for engaging Sinjaris and the provincial government of Nineveh.
Topic:: Security, Governance, Islamic State, Displacement, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Sinjar

178. Understanding Lithuania's total defence approach in the face of Russian threat through principal–agent theory

Author:: Dovydas Rogulis
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: Identification of the principal and agent in the case study of Lithuania’s total defence approach by analysing official documents. Identification of what constitutes a total defence approach in Lithuania by scrutinising both official documents and semi-structured interviews. Determining the implementation of the total defence approach by considering official documents and semi-structured interviews. To understand the deeper context, qualitative research methods are employed. The analysis includes primary documents and semi-structured interviews, which provide the opportunity to identify casual links that may not be evident from document analysis alone. In the case study strategy, specifically focusing on the implementation of Lithuania’s total defence approach, a deeper understanding is essential, and this naturally requires the in-depth insights that the interview method can offer. Empirical data from Lithuania highlights that the misalignment is not only due to information asymmetry, shifting priorities, or weak oversight but also to differing perceptions of what total defence entails. The Lithuanian Parliament, as the principal, envisioned total defence as a broad, inclusive strategy involving all sectors of society and business. In contrast, the government and military, as agents, prioritised military professionalisation and NATO integration, treating civilian involvement as secondary. This difference in perspective led to the deprioritisation of elements, such as citizen mobilisation and resilience-building. The data also shows that inconsistent definitions of total defence among institutions hindered effective policy implementation. Thus, principal–agent theory needs to account for these perceptual differences, suggesting that misalignment can arise from interpretive differences, rather than deliberate manipulation.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Security, and Principal-Agent Theory
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Lithuania

179. Artificial intelligence as a moral agent: regulatory implications and a relational–contextual extension of Moor’s classification

Author:: Maciej Czyszczoń
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: This paper reassesses the regulatory value of James Moor’s four-level typology of machine morality, considering the European Artificial Intelligence Act (AI Act) and the forthcoming European Union (EU) liability directives. It asks whether Moors categories—ethical impact, implicit, explicit, and full moral agents—still capture the morally relevant properties of today’s generative, adaptive AI, and, if not, whether adding a relational−contextual dimension can better anticipate responsibility gaps. To address this gap, we introduce a novel relational–contextual dimension and a three-factor Responsibility Index (RI₃) that refines Moor’s typology by cross-classifying AI systems according to complexity, autonomy, and behavioural predictability for regulatory use. Adopting a strictly conceptual design, the study combines analytic philosophy with illustrative comparisons drawn from recent EU policy debates and high-profile incidents. It refines key terms, tests their coherence against statutory risk tiers, and distils the analysis into a three-factor matrix—complexity, autonomy, and predictability—that can be operationalised by lawmakers. The evaluation confirms that Moor’s typology remains a valuable baseline for distinguishing between passive and decision-making artefacts. Nevertheless, it also highlights how moral accountability is distributed within socio-technical networks. The proposed relational−contextual dimension, in conjunction with the regulatory matrix, aligns more closely with the AI Act’s risk logic and highlights scenarios in which moral agency is effectively delegated to the system. Moor’s framework should be retained but augmented: only by integrating relational criteria can legislators close emerging accountability gaps surrounding large-scale, autonomous AI. The matrix offers a pragmatic tool for aligning philosophical insight with concrete legal duties.
Topic:: Security, Regulation, Artificial Intelligence, Moor's Typology, Relational Agency, and European Union
Political Geography:: Global Focus and Europe

180. Analysis of the power of drones and limitations of the anti-drone solutions on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield

Author:: Mohamed Zied Chaari
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The recent and rapid growth of low-cost, sophisticated drones, along with the associated technological challenges, is a notable feature of warfare tactics. As the Russians and Ukrainians become more dependent on these cost-effective yet crude drones, they establish a new battlefield characterised by high efficacy and low cost. Both Russian and Ukrainian forces launch drones to target each other. Drones locate their targets, perhaps with low efficacy, but they can cause significant destruction. Drones can destroy and carbonise tanks, which cost about $4 million each. However, the unit price of drones does not exceed $1,000. The limitations and ineffectiveness of most anti-drone devices currently on the market, including lasers, high-power microwaves, and radio frequency jammers, are evident in the increasing ubiquity of drones. This case study suggests that current counter-drone technologies are unable to neutralise kamikaze and weaponised drones on both sides. As a result of these failures, Russian and Ukrainian forces employ new technologies, such as metal grids and nylon net barriers, which are effective in destroying and stopping drones to some extent. This article presents a case study involving the reliance on drones by both warring sides, who have also been utilising anti-drone tactics since February 2022. The work investigates the solutions currently available to both adversaries for reducing the impact of weaponised drones on the battlefield. This study evaluates them and demonstrates how their inherent drawbacks could motivate the development of new strategies and countermeasures against armed drones.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Geopolitics, Weapons, Drones, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

181. Theoretical foundation of a proposed methodology and analysis framework for political instability risk assessment

Author:: Zisis Kyrgos and Ippokratis Daskalakis
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The last decade has seen the most cases of political instability and internal security incidents among all the decades of the 20th and 21st centuries so far. This fact alone indicates a necessity to address the factors contributing to the phenomenon in a way prospectively usable in decision and policy-making procedures. An analysis methodology taking into consideration the factors contributing to such cases would be a valuable tool to achieve the above necessity. Consequently, the objective of this research is to specify these factors. The methodology used to determine these factors involves a case study of historical cases of internal state unrest and instability. Fifteen cases were selected for analysis at random, based on the data obtained from the Uppsala Conflict Data Programme. The cases selected were analysed based on the parties involved in the conflict, the conflict’s historical and political contexts, factors contributing to its occurrence according to relevant bibliography, actions taken by the rival groups, potential external involvement in the conflict, and other points of interest relevant to the study. The factors determined include the social entity’s relative size, denial of rights, information flow, geography, leadership, means of projecting power, environmental conditions, repression/freedom of action, and triggering event. The above factors were cross-referenced with different theories relevant to the subject under examination.
Topic:: Security, National Security, Instability, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:: Global Focus

182. Collaboration among NATO’s defence innovators: Lessons from Poland

Author:: Ryan Atkinson
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) is responding to security challenges arising from emerging technologies by leveraging national and multilateral innovation networks to strengthen collective defence and accelerate technological adaptation. NATO partnerships provide a research scope encompassing key policy developments on specific technologies, including artificial intelligence, autonomy, quantum, and data. Poland’s innovation ecosystem is analysed to highlight how public–private partnerships with NATO promote alliance-wide strategic objectives aligned with national innovation networks. This comparative case study analyses NATO’s Defence Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic (DIANA) and the national innovation networks of allies, as demonstrated by the case of Poland. Data was gathered from policy documents, industry reports, and other publicly available sources. Poland’s proactive innovation strategy is a model for utilising local strengths to tackle global security concerns and test facilities and accelerator programmes under NATO DIANA. Poland’s innovation model provides a significant case study that offers valuable insights for future research and development. Combating the challenges posed by evolving technologies requires adaptable security measures, demonstrated by various examples from Poland’s local accelerators and test centres. NATO’s approach, involving industry partnerships and defence innovation, provides a model for other allies. The case of innovation in Poland provides a generalisable methodology for studying other national approaches to innovation aligned with the NATO accelerators.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Science and Technology, and Innovation
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

183. Secure Future Series No. 3- Dealing with Hybrid Threats in Kosovo and Potential for Improvement

Author:: Denora Gashi
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: Hybrid threats are not abstract risks for Kosovo; they are becoming a growing reality. What makes Kosovo particularly vulnerable is the combination of its dispute with Serbia, fragile interethnic relations, and the country’s ambition to consolidate its statehood and sovereignty, as well as its Euro-Atlantic integration aspirations. This mix makes it a testing ground for hostile actors seeking to undermine NATO and EU credibility, such as Russia and China. The challenge, then, is not only defensive. Kosovo has not ignored these challenges. In recent years, it has adopted the National Cyber Security Strategy 2023–2027, passed the Law on Cyber Security, and begun operationalizing the Cyber Security Agency and related coordination bodies. These steps align Kosovo with Euro-Atlantic standards and provide an institutional framework to address threats. Yet, progress remains uneven. Kosovo can demonstrate that small states are capable of building resilience by incorporating foresight and fostering alliances, as well as promoting societal cohesion within their national security doctrine. Responding to hybrid threats in Kosovo requires building on existing capacities and leveraging partnerships. The following six areas represent feasible yet impactful steps that Kosovo can take to strengthen its resilience against hybrid threats.
Topic:: Security, European Union, Ethnicity, Resilience, and Hybrid Threats
Political Geography:: Europe, Kosovo, and Balkans

184. Kosovo 2030: Potential Foreign & Security Policy Scenarios

Author:: Ramadan Ilazi
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: The trajectory of Kosovo’s foreign and security policy over the next decade will be shaped by a limited set of highly consequential variables. These drivers vary in both impact and predictability, but together they define what is possible and what is at risk for Kosovo by 2030. The driver’s map (Figure 1) provides a structured approach to understanding this outlook, highlighting the issues that matter most and identifying where uncertainty is greatest. The map plots each driver along two axes: its expected impact on Kosovo’s foreign and security policy, and its level of uncertainty based on current trends, external dependencies, and political volatility. Our analysis is not a prediction, but a risk-informed outlook, aimed at clarifying where Kosovo’s energy, resources, and diplomacy should be concentrated in the years ahead. Three drivers occupy the top-right quadrant of the map: those that are both highly impactful and highly uncertain. These are the issues that will shape Kosovo’s future more than any others, but where outcomes are also least assured.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe, Kosovo, and Balkans

185. Secure Future Series No. 1- How to Advance Kosovo-NATO Relations?

Author:: Ramadan Ilazi, Jeta Loshaj, Yerai Dheur, and Pia-K. Pallasch
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: For Kosovo, membership in NATO is of vital interest and a shared objective across the political and civil society spectrum. This brief paper presents some ideas on how Kosovo can advance cooperation and integration with NATO. A precondition for any of these ideas to materialize is that Kosovo fosters its credibility as a rational and reliable partner to NATO. On July 17, 2025, KCSS organized a roundtable discussion with experts and other institutional and civil society stakeholders to examine the issue of NATO-Kosovo relations and the options available to Kosovo to advance partnership and cooperation with NATO, considering the political and legal context. This brief is based on the discussions at this roundtable and reflects some of the ideas that participants put forward. Accordingly, we extend our gratitude and acknowledgement to all participants and the panel of the roundtable for their contributions.
Topic:: Security, NATO, and Partnerships
Political Geography:: Europe, Kosovo, and Balkans

186. Secure Future Series No. 2- Lessons from Kosovo’s Failed Attempts to Join Interpol

Author:: Stephen R. Gaughan
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: On 4 November 2024, Serbian Internal Affairs Minister Ivica Dačić declared victory after the 92nd General Assembly of Interpol concluded without a vote on admitting Kosovo. Kosovo’s last application to join — its sixth — came (and was subsequently withdrawn) in 2019, having thrice failed by ballot (2015, 2016, 2018), once prior withdrawn its candidacy facing a clear defeat (2017), and once submitting its application to the General Secretariat, only for it to be denied a vote (2010). There seems to be no simple or straightforward way for Kosovo to lock up the votes needed to join Interpol. Instead, Kosovo must contend with several difficult realities.
Topic:: Security, Regional Integration, Police, and Interpol
Political Geography:: Europe and Kosovo

187. How Does the Serbian Security Doctrine View Kosovo, the West, Russia, and China?

Author:: Ramadan Ilazi
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: This paper analyzes Serbia’s security doctrine as outlined in its National Security Strategy (2021), focusing on how it perceives Kosovo, the West (EU, NATO, and the US), Russia, and China. Serbia’s security posture is shaped by a balancing act— engaging both the West (EU, U.S., NATO) security structures while at the same time maintaining strong strategic relations with Russia and China. Despite its proclaimed military neutrality, Serbia’s security doctrine reflects an aggressive posture toward Kosovo, a skeptical stance on the West, and a deepening strategic alignment with Moscow and Beijing. The strategy frames Kosovo’s independence as a direct challenge to Serbia’s territorial integrity and national security. Serbia’s security apparatus is engaged in diplomatic efforts, intelligence operations, and hybrid warfare to undermine Kosovo’s sovereignty and prevent its international recognition. While Serbia rejects NATO membership, it cooperates with NATO through the Partnership for Peace (PfP). Serbia maintains strong defense and energy ties with Russia, benefiting from diplomatic backing on Kosovo while avoiding Western sanctions on Moscow. China is emerging as a key economic and security partner, providing investments in infrastructure, digital surveillance, and military technology. Serbia has significantly expanded its military capabilities, acquiring weapons from Russia and China while participating in joint drills with both NATO and CSTO. The adoption of the Total Defense concept—mobilizing the entire population and resources for national security—raises concerns about escalation and arms races in the Western Balkans. Serbia’s strategy frames Western influence as a security challenge, particularly regarding media, civil society, and foreign-backed democratization efforts. The West is seen as a hybrid threat, accused of interfering in Serbia’s internal affairs, while Russia and China are portrayed as strategic allies. Serbia’s approach contributes to a geopolitical divide in the Western Balkans, where Kosovo is aligned fully with the West, while Serbia hedges between the EU and authoritarian states, as well as grappling internally with authoritarian practices. Serbia’s influence campaigns portray Kosovo as a source of instability, using disinformation, cyber-attacks, and lobbying efforts to stall Kosovo’s state-consolidation process as well as EU and NATO aspirations. Kosovo’s reactive foreign policy and languishing partnership with the U.S., and the EU create an enabling environment for Serbia’s efforts against Kosovo’s statehood.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, and European Union
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Asia, and Kosovo

188. Strengthening security sector governance in fragile jurisdictions: The role of the private sector

Author:: Stephen Buchanan-Clarke
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:: The private security sector in Southern Africa has expanded rapidly over the last two decades. The extractives industry has helped drive this growth, with private security companies (PSCs) providing essential protection for mining operations in fragile regions. However, these contexts are often ‘hybrid security environments’ characterised by weak state presence and multiple public and private security providers engaged in ad hoc security arrangements, with varying degrees of legitimacy, authority, and oversight. For companies, this raises the risk of being implicated in human rights abuses, triggering legal liabilities, sanctions, and reputational harm. Poor security sector governance can also inflame community grievances and social tensions, potentially sparking protests, violence, and a negative impact on companies’ social license to operate. To address these risks, PSCs and mining companies can take a proactive role in strengthening security governance within the areas in which they operate. This report is part of an ongoing research project and provides an overview of governance challenges and opportunities for the private sector to improve security sector governance in Southern Africa, drawing on insights gathered for a research project on hybrid security governance in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique.
Topic:: Security, Governance, Mining, Private Sector, and Private Security Companies (PSC)
Political Geography:: Africa

189. Mapping Algeria's Foreign Policy in Africa Through Complex Network Analysis: Security and Energy Dynamics (2019-2025)

Author:: Mourad Benguita
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: In recent years, Africa has emerged as a pivotal space of geopolitical realignment, strategic competition, and region-wide integration experiments. The continent’s growing significance is fueled by its energy potential, evolving security configurations, and the multiplication of cross-border infrastructure and connectivity initiatives. As states navigate this increasingly interdepen-dent environment, foreign policies have shifted from traditional bilateralism to more fluid and multi-layered forms of engagement, including overlapping alliances, regional corridors, and transnational institutional frameworks.Within this continental transformation, Algeria has embarked on a recalibrated foreign policy, particularly since 2019. Internally, the Hirak pro-test movement and the subsequent reconfiguration of the political order ushe-red in demands for a more assertive and diversified external policy posture. Externally, Algeria has faced growing competition over African influence, particularly from regional rivals like Morocco, which has reasserted itself diplomatically across the continent, and from global powers, both traditional (France and the EU) and emerging (China, Russia, Turkey and Gulf states). This dual pressure has compelled Algeria to adopt a more proactive and systemic approach to its African policy.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Energy, Regional Politics, and Network Analysis
Political Geography:: Africa, Algeria, and North Africa

190. Stabilizing Cobalt Markets: A Price Floor for U.S. Minerals Security

Author:: Gracelin Baskaran and Meredith Schwartz
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: Achieving economic viability for minerals security is one of the most pressing hurdles facing U.S. minerals security objectives. While this challenge spans the entire critical minerals landscape, it is particularly acute for cobalt. Despite cobalt’s central role in both energy security and the defense industrial base, its market remains highly distorted in the critical minerals ecosystem. Prices have swung wildly over the past decade, driven less by supply-and-demand fundamentals than by strategic behavior, particularly persistent oversupply from People’s Republic of China (PRC) producers that dominate global mining, refining, and processing. Between May 2022 and May 2025, cobalt prices plunged 59.5 percent, falling from $41 to $16.62 per pound. This sharp decline coincided with China Molybdenum Company Limited (CMOC) nearly doubling its annual cobalt production in 2024, reaching record output levels despite market prices falling more than 60 percent. The surge in PRC output has pushed several Western operations out of the market. In 2022, Jervois opened the United States’ only cobalt mine in Idaho, only to shutter it that the following year as prices cratered. While cobalt prices have begun to show upward momentum after a long period of weakness, the benchmark price for refined cobalt remains around $22.30 per pound as of late November 2025. But this relief is fleeting. The DRC has already signaled that it will move away from an export ban—an action that will flood the market once again and put renewed downward pressure on cobalt prices. To avoid another collapse that forces non-PRC producers offline, the United States and its allies must move quickly to deploy price support mechanisms that keep Western mines operating and prevent the market from reverting to PRC dominance.
Topic:: Security, Markets, Supply Chains, Cobalt, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

191. Pan-African-Foreign Policy Theory: A Conceptual Significance of Foreign Policy Analysis Within Policy Agenda Setting for Africa

Author:: Chris Landsberg, Sandile Moloi, and Oscar Van Heerden
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: This article claims that Pan-Africanism Foreign Policy Theory is about Africa’s states’ foreign policy. This claim and theory have not been developed before. The closest argument to our Pan-Africanism Foreign Policy Theory is the writing in 2009 by McDougal (2009), which contends that, as the continental states and its premier integration bodies seek to craft a new-Pan-Africanism, African foreign policies should be based on three aspects: cultural and political unity; Afro-centric development, and the Afri-can conceptualisation of Ubuntu. We lay further claim that Pan-Africanism is rarely analysed by reviewing the goals pursued by states, specifically those of security, prosperity, and world reorganisation. This paper aims to make a constructive contribution to the overall literature by examining Pan-Africanism as African foreign policy, given that little has been written about it from this viewpoint.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Pan-Africanism, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Africa

192. The Depleting Missile Defense Interceptor Inventory

Author:: Wes Rumbaugh
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: The prolific use of missiles and drones in the June 2025 war between Israel and Iran illustrated the growing role of these weapons in modern conflict. The significant expenditure of air and missile defense interceptors, especially by the United States, over the course of the 12-day conflict highlighted both the scarcity and importance of these critical military capabilities. Estimating interceptor inventories presents certain challenges, but examining the available budget data allows for a better contextualization around reported expenditure numbers. This data raises concerns about the inventory of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors, in particular, suggesting the need to invest in additional capacity. Nevertheless, these investments must be coupled with measures to provide a more sustainable demand signal to industry if the goal is to build a more resilient and responsive industrial base for air and missile defense interceptors.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Drones, Missile Defense, Defense Spending, and Interceptors
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

193. CRINK Security Ties: Growing Cooperation, Anchored by China and Russia

Author:: Bonny Lin, Brian Hart, Leon Li, Hugh Grant-Chapman, Truly Tinsley, and Feifei Hung
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: Military and security cooperation among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea (CRINK) accelerated significantly after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. This includes a surge in transfers of arms and dual-use goods, a new mutual defense pact, and more frequent and diversified joint military exercises. Observable security cooperation has taken place bilaterally or trilaterally, with no discernable official cooperation taking place quadrilaterally. However, there have been instances of Chinese, Iranian, and North Korean players working together in diffuse ways to support Russia’s war in Ukraine. Overall, the China-Russia security partnership is the most robust, but North Korea and Iran have quickly strengthened security cooperation as well, primarily with Russia. Despite strengthened ties among CRINK countries, the four countries are not always on the same page. To date, limited overt military support for Iran following attacks by Israel and the United States showcased how various factors—transactional calculations, power asymmetries, geographic distance, simultaneity of conflict and fatigue, U.S. military involvement, different interests, and elements of distrust—affect the willingness of CRINK countries to directly support one another via military means. Overall, the two larger powers—China and Russia—anchor CRINK cooperation. They have much more to offer to incentivize others to support them, and they are the most closely aligned bilateral actors. China, Russia, and North Korea are the trio most likely to support one another in times of need.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, International Security, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Iran, Ukraine, and Asia

194. Identifying Pathways for U.S. Shipbuilding Cooperation with Northeast Asian Allies

Author:: Henry H. Carroll and Cynthia R. Cook
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: Military conflict in the Indo-Pacific would demand overwhelming U.S. naval power. Yet the shipbuilding sector faces capacity shortages, industrial base constraints, cost overruns, and delayed delivery, suggesting that Washington should explore alternative pathways for delivering naval capability. One approach is to enhance cooperation with close allies such as Japan and South Korea. Options for cooperation include allied participation in maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO); allied purchase and revitalization of U.S. shipyards; various methods of coproduction, including modular construction; and U.S. purchase of allied-built ships. Novel strategies that leverage the United States’ strong and unique network of allies and partners will require thoughtful implementation of industrial cooperation policy, which has historically been challenging. For the United States to strike the right balance between leaning on its allies and partners to alleviate its shipbuilding problems and investing in its own capabilities at home—for these approaches are not mutually exclusive—it should understand the implications of its various cooperative options with its allies.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Navy, Defense Industry, and Shipbuilding
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, North America, Korea, and United States of America

195. High-Altitude Nuclear Explosions: Myths and Reality

Author:: Scott Pence and Adam F. Reynolds
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: Thankfully, no party has used nuclear weapons in war since 1945. Treaties limiting nuclear tests and weapon inventories during the Cold War highlighted the pragmatism of world leaders. As memories fade, and nascent nuclear states mature, the potential for their use (or misuse) rises. In a strategic environment with multiple nuclear-armed states of various sizes and incentives, it is important to understand the science underlying the use of nuclear weapons in novel and unexpected ways. As opposed to the ground bursts of World War II, their use in the sky has potential to achieve certain objectives without catastrophic loss of life. Due partly to the lack of testing and partly to a somber reluctance to consider this potentiality, many misunderstandings persist. There is a need to address prevailing myths about the use of high-altitude nuclear explosions and provide realities rooted in the existing research on the subject.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Missile Defense
Political Geography:: Global Focus

196. The New Salvo War: Russia’s Evolving Punishment Campaign

Author:: Benjamin Jensen, Yasir Atalan, and Erik Tiersten-Nyman
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: Russia has normalized massive, mixed drone‑missile salvos: The average wave size has risen from about 100 munitions in 2022 to nearly 300 in 2025, while intervals between major strikes have compressed from roughly a month to as few as two days. The salvo campaign now leans heavily on Shahed swarms to saturate Ukraine’s air defenses in line with the increasing Russian low-cost drone manufacturing capability. These salvos reflect an attritional punishment strategy—victory through volume, persistence, and psychological strain Ukraine must counter with layered, cost‑efficient defenses: rapidly field high‑energy lasers and HPMs, expand cross‑domain early‑warning networks, diversify low‑cost interceptors and rapid‑fire guns, and fuse civil‑military tracking to decode salvo patterns in real time.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia and Eurasia

197. Drone Saturation: Russia’s Shahed Campaign

Author:: Benjamin Jensen and Yasir Atalan
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: Russia’s drone campaign utilizes inexpensive Shahed drones to saturate Ukrainian air defenses and erode civilian morale through persistent nightly attacks. Originally Iranian made, these drones are now mass produced in Russia using Western electronics and essential Chinese components. Ukraine urgently requires layered, cost-effective air defenses, including high-energy laser systems, to counter drone saturation. Targeted long-range strikes on drone production and launch sites and disrupting China’s supply of critical electronics to Russia are essential steps. Russia’s relentless use of low-cost drones signals a broader shift toward attrition warfare based on overwhelming air defense systems with sheer numbers. Western governments must innovate in economical defenses and tackle Chinese technology flows fueling Russian drone production.
Topic:: Security, Weapons, Drones, Russia-Ukraine War, Air Defense, and Shahed Drones
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

198. CRINK Diplomatic Ties: A Broader Tilt Toward the Global South

Author:: Mona Yacoubian and Briana Winslow
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: The so-called CRINK (China-Russia-Iran-North Korea) countries are strengthening bilateral diplomatic ties in important ways. Yet multilateral engagement among all four countries remains a rarity and underscores that CRINK still falls short of an “axis.” The relationship between China and Russia—on full display during the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit and subsequent military parade—has transformed significantly and holds the greatest potential to adversely affect U.S. interests. Quieter diplomatic engagements between Russia and North Korea have also exhibited notable growth since 2022, as demonstrated by both UN voting behavior and high-level meetings. By contrast, Russia’s relationship with Iran appears to have cooled after an initial deepening at the outset of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. More broadly, Iran’s valence within CRINK has diminished, as it has less to offer in its weakened state following its 12-day war with Israel and the United States. The looming renewal of sanctions against Iran will put the real power of CRINK diplomatic alignment to the test. Moscow and Beijing have limited ability to shape a coherent and effective response, but CRINK will seize the opportunity to portray the U.S.-led international order as inherently biased against the Global South.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Geopolitics, and Global South
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

199. The Water Insecurity-Climate Change Nexus: A Looming Threat to Peace and Security in Southeast Asia

Author:: Julius Cesar Imperial Trajano
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Climate change is intensifying water insecurity across Southeast Asia, heightening both interstate frictions and local societal tensions. Recent disputes over transboundary dam projects and public unrest over failed flood control efforts underscore how water governance challenges are increasingly becoming peace and security concerns in the region.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Peace, Flood, and Water Insecurity
Political Geography:: Southeast Asia

200. No breakthrough at the European-African summit in Luanda

Author:: Jędrzej Czerep
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: On 24-25 November, the seventh European Union-African Union summit was held in Luanda, the capital of Angola. It was dominated by issues related to security, competition with China via the EU's Global Gateway programme, and access to critical minerals. The meeting also served to demonstrate a mutual commitment to multilateralism.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, European Union, Multilateralism, and African Union
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Europe, and Angola

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS