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31. Roundtable Blog: Four Years Since Russia’s Full-Scale Invasion Into Ukraine: What Have We Learned?

Author:
Public International Law Policy Group
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:
This blogpost is part of the PILPG Lawyering Peace roundtable series. Rather than a traditional co-authored article, it presents a curated set of expert reflections from members of PILPG’s Peace Fellows and Ambassador Circle networks. Marking four years since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, this roundtable examines how the war has reshaped international law, global security architecture, accountability mechanisms, and our understanding of modern aggression. Anniversaries invite commemoration. This roundtable instead invites assessment. Four years on, the international community possesses insights that were unavailable in the early days of the invasion. The war has tested the resilience of collective defense systems, exposed the limitations and adaptability of international institutions, accelerated transformations in military technology and information warfare, and catalyzed new approaches to sanctions, energy security, and legal accountability. It has also revealed both the extraordinary durability of Ukrainian statehood and the profound human costs of prolonged high-intensity conflict. This collection seeks to move beyond retrospective narrative toward forward-looking analysis. What assumptions proved mistaken? What institutional innovations have emerged? How has the legal framework governing aggression and atrocity crimes evolved under pressure? What lessons should policymakers internalize to deter future wars of aggression? By elevating diverse expert perspectives across disciplines, this roundtable aims to distill the most consequential lessons of the past four years — and to consider how they should inform the future of peacebuilding, deterrence, and the international legal order.
Topic:
Security, International Law, Accountability, Armed Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and Invasion
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

32. From Conflict Actors to Constitutional Guardians? Reassessing Security-Sector Governance Under the 2025 Tenth Amendment to the Constitution of Lesotho

Author:
Bokang Moshoeshoe
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
This article critically examines whether the 2025 Tenth Amendment to the Constitution of Lesotho constitutes a substantive transformation in the governance of national security institutions or merely a reconfiguration of entrenched power relations. Grounded in Lesotho’s history of political instability and recurrent security-sector involvement in governance, the study adopts a qualitative doctrinal and interpretive institutional approach. It analyses the extent to which the Amendment restructures authority, strengthens oversight and promotes the depoliticisation of coercive institutions. The article finds that while the Amendment introduces important procedural reforms – particularly in relation to appointments, oversight mechanisms and professional standards – it does not fundamentally alter the concentration of authority within the executive. Consequently, the reforms align with international and regional norms on democratic security-sector governance yet fall short of achieving meaningful structural transformation. Executive dominance continues to shape the incentives that historically enabled politicisation. The article argues that constitutional reform in this context operates within the limits of constitutional engineering: enhancing formal accountability without fully addressing underlying political dynamics. Nonetheless, the Amendment provides a framework that may, over time, support the gradual consolidation of constitutionalism and institutional neutrality.
Topic:
Security, Reform, Justice, Peacebuilding, and Constitutionalism
Political Geography:
Africa and Lesotho

33. Through Youth Lenses: Reflections on the Impact of the Continental Framework for Youth, Peace and Security in Africa

Author:
Mpule Kgetsi
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
Before the global recognition of the Youth, Peace and Security (YPS) agenda through the United Nations (UN) Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 2250, Africa had already begun laying the groundwork through the African Youth Charter. Article 17 of the Charter, which provides for Peace and Security, when read in conjunction with provisions such as Article 11 on youth participation, establishes a clear normative foundation for integrating young people into peace and decision-making processes. Yet, despite its progressive content, the limited implementation of the Charter by the African Union (AU) and its member states relegated it to the margins of global peace and security practice. This article contends that while YPS frameworks have generated momentum for the adoption of the YPS agenda, progress in implementation remains slow, resulting in limited impact. The adoption of the Continental Framework for Youth, Peace and Security (CFYPS), along with its ten-year implementation plan, offered an opportunity to address the implementation gaps of the Charter and fulfil Africa’s long-overdue commitments to YPS. Inspired by UNSCR 2250, the framework also incorporates elements of the African Peace and Security Architecture, thereby placing the YPS agenda within key continental policy frameworks. The analysis that follows examines whether the CFYPS has substantially addressed the needs of Africa’s young peacebuilders. This approach allows for a critical evaluation of both the framework’s promises and its practical impact in translating policy into lived realities. The article will assess the extent to which the CFYPS has fulfilled its promises and will evaluate its contributions to peacebuilding and youth empowerment. In doing so, it aims to determine not only the framework’s policy relevance but also its practical impact on the lives of young Africans. Before the implementation of these frameworks, various studies existed that illustrated that the needs of young people did not always align with policy assumptions.
Topic:
Security, Youth, Peace, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Africa

34. The EU-Australia security and defence agreement: not a pact but a partnership

Author:
Bart Hogeveen
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
On 24 March 2026, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and Australian Prime Minister Albanese signed the EU-Australia Security and Defence Partnership. The partnership represents a significant step in EU–Australia relations, elevating cooperation beyond its traditional focus on trade and investment. However, as with previous EU-Australia initiatives, its value will ultimately depend on whether it delivers concrete outcomes rather than remaining a largely declaratory framework. This Explainer describes what the partnership entails and highlights what it needs to become successful and impactful.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Partnerships, Cybersecurity, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:
Europe, Australia, and Asia-Pacific

35. Selling the Risks: Lessons on Security Modernization from Canada’s Contract Security Program

Author:
Oliver Jones, Karena Kyne, and Alexandre Picard
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Modernization, a watchword in governance and public administration, is an imperative for security organizations that need to adapt their outlooks and processes to an increasingly unsettled world. Yet rigid processes obstruct modernization.
Topic:
Security, Governance, Modernization, and Public Administration
Political Geography:
Canada and North America

36. From wartime solidarity to deeper economic partnership between Denmark and Ukraine

Author:
Maria Repko
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Denmark’s military leadership in support for Ukraine has not yet translated into economic cooperation in the shape of expanded trade or investments. Targeted trade and investment paired with strategic labour market measures could convert wartime solidarity into a deeper economic partnership. Since the outbreak of the war, Denmark has been one of the most vocal supporters of Ukraine in the EU. According to Kiel Institute data,1 globally it is the fourth-largest supplier of military aid, the fifth-largest in terms of total bilateral allocations and relative to GDP it ranks first. Examining developments across the EU’s four freedoms – goods, services, capital and people – this brief shows that despite the strong military support, economic cooperation and trade depth remain limited. According to 2024 data,2 the total trading turnover between Denmark and Ukraine is very low. Denmark is only the 34th supplying market and 44th export market for Ukraine. For Denmark, Ukraine is the 47th largest market both as a supplier and as an export destination. Foreign direct investments boost trade, as can be seen in practice, but it is very selective and focused on a few sectors, not central to the Danish industrial core (except for food and agricultural processing). Moreover, labour market integration of refugees is under-strategised.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Economics, Partnerships, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Denmark

37. Hawks remain hawks, and doves remain doves

Author:
Hans Mouritzen
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
This DIIS Working Paper analyses convergences and divergences in Nordic countries’ relations with Russia since the Cold War. It then reflects on the main determinants behind European states’ Russia policies: their location in relation to Russia and their historical experiences with Russia Since these determinants are ultrastable, the hawks remain hawks and the doves remain doves, and some stay in-between.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and History
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Eurasia

38. Climate change makes Arctic operations ever more complex

Author:
Lin Alexandra Mortensgaard
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
It is a truth widely acknowledged that the Arctic region is warming several times faster than the rest of the globe and, as a consequence, Arctic military operations are already being fundamentally reshaped. But this is not simply a question of the Arctic becoming more accessible. As a Canadian vice-admiral recently noted, ‘it’s harder to operate up there because of climate change. Because the ice is even less predictable than it has been in the past. (...) Everything in the North is much more complex as a result of climate change’.1 Security actors such as military forces, coastguards, intelligence agencies, diplomats and private contractors operating in the Arctic – but also in headquarters far from northern latitudes – increasingly have to acknowledge and plan for these transformations. The dramatic changes to the ice, snow and frost that still characterise the Arctic region have tangible consequences on a daily basis for all those living and operating in this complex geography. It is, however, not only the ice and frost of the Arctic that is changing, but also weather patterns, ocean currents, coastlines and the topography of landmasses. Security actors require an understanding of the changing Arctic climate – an understanding which is at once systematic and comprehensive, but also not so inflexible that it insists on providing exhaustive foresight for all possible trajectories. While climate scientists provide scenarios and theorise tipping points for the global climate, even their projections involve many unknowns. These existing uncertainties are exacerbated by disrupted data flows and knowledge exchange with scientific communities in both Russia and the United States. In light of this, it is very difficult for security actors operating in the Arctic region to project concretely the future challenges presented to their activities by climate change. We can, however, outline different types of change that are relevant at present, and use this typology to consider the implications for Arctic operations. I outline three different types of change here: changes to the size of the operational area and area of interest; changes to the physical state of the area; and changes to the topography of the area. These types overlap but have different degrees of relevance on for example land and sea. I use ‘change’ here because these transformations are not simply a matter of an ‘increasing’ temperature or a ‘decreasing’ amount of ice. To assume that climate change is linear and unidirectional is to misunderstand what it entails as a localised, current and future phenomenon.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Climate Change, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Arctic

39. Gone with the West: How the transatlantic split helps China and forces Europe to rethink its Indo-Pacific strategy

Author:
Andreas Bøje Forsby
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The erosion of transatlantic unity under a renewed America First strategy has weakened collective Western responses to China and left Europe vulnerable to coercive diplomacy from both Beijing and Washington. Caught between an unreliable America and an assertive China, Europe must strengthen its strategic autonomy by building deeper relationships with like-minded countries in the Indo-Pacific region. Like-mindedness, previously the linchpin of Western unity, no longer appears to play much of a role in building geostrategic coalitions in the Indo-Pacific region.1 Instead, as the Trump administration jettisons the liberal rules-based international order, Europe is fundamentally reconsidering its partnership with America and consequently its approach to the Indo-Pacific. Even the prevailing transatlantic consensus on China – viewed as a “systemic challenger” that should be tackled together – is now unravelling.2 Against the wider backdrop of a return to an era of great power prerogatives and spheres of influence, Europe therefore finds itself in a tight spot in the Indo-Pacific region – unwelcome to both Washington and Beijing. However, given its economic dynamism and critical manufacturing industries, the Indo-Pacific is far too important to be left to Washington and Beijing’s devices. Indeed, many Indo-Pacific countries share not only Europe’s advocacy of free trade, multilateralism, liberal institutions and a rules-based order, but also its unease about relying too much on either China or the US, which together may foster a renewed sense of like-mindedness with Europe. For its part, Europe urgently needs to extend and deepen its own set of strategic relationships with countries in the Indo-Pacific region in the face of growing Chinese and American assertiveness. The proposed new EU security strategy will hopefully address this as a geostrategic priority.3
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Transatlantic Relations, and Global Economy
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and Indo-Pacific

40. The EU in a changing threat landscape at sea

Author:
Jessica Larsen
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The European Union is strengthening its strategic autonomy at a time when geopolitics, hybrid threats and actual war are accelerating insecurity at sea. The situation calls for a review of the EU’s role as a maritime security provider. With 90% of trade moving by sea, the European Union (EU) has economic and security interests in the peaceful and sustainable use of the world’s oceans. Yet the EU’s ability to protect its supply chains, and its energy and food security is compromised by changing threat patterns at sea and the decline of multilateralism with which to address them. This policy brief presents six priority areas that the EU and member states may address to strengthen the EU’s strategic autonomy and consolidate its role as a maritime security provider.
Topic:
Security, European Union, Geopolitics, Maritime, Hybrid Threats, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:
Europe