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21. The European strategic approach to technological security: the challenges posed by China

Author:
Earl Wang
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
[1] Not only the US, but the EU and its Member States are also facing Chinese restrictions on foreign critical tech infrastructure. European telecom companies such as Nokia and Ericsson witness a drop by two-thirds in their market shares in China as compared to 2020. On the other way around, Chinese ‘high-risk suppliers’ of telecom networks such as Huawei and ZTE only encountered a 5-10% decline in Europe since EU institution and countries adopted the 5G cybersecurity toolbox in 2020. When it comes to European security in the cyber realm, we can also observe direct Chinese threats. Recent public cases of cyberattacks against France and the Czech Republic reminded us – again – of cybersecurity challenges from China which was also underlined by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Among other topics, critical technologies, cyber and digital infrastructure top the EU’s list of tech security preoccupation with regard to China. This paper provides an analysis of the strategic formulation of EU institutions and European countries on tech security vis-à-vis China from 2013 to 2022. Cases of countries covered in the paper include France, Germany, Greece, the Netherlands, Czech Republic, and the United Kingdom. The paper is structured as follows. The first part studies the gradual awareness of security implications of Chinese investment in European critical technologies following China’s Made In China 2025 policy. In the second part, the paper examines the security threats posed by Chinese companies’ engagement in European digital infrastructure and the coordinated approach of the EU to secure 5G networks. The third part introduces the EU framework for investment screening as a new tool to address security concerns deriving from foreign investment in and acquisition of critical technologies and digital infrastructure. In the fourth part, the paper investigates European cybersecurity agencies and how cybersecurity has become a fast-growing concern of the EU and European countries in its relations with China. This paper showcases that the European Union and its Member States have incorporated the increasing link between security and technology in their strategic formulation of policy on China. More importantly, the effectiveness of the EU’s strategy in tech security highly relies on the coordination and cooperation among Member States and between the EU and national levels.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, European Union, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:
China and Europe

22. The 2024 Carlisle Conference on the PLA: Protracted War Against the PRC

Author:
Joshua Arostegui
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
The US Army War College’s 2024 Carlisle Conference on the People’s Liberation Army was held on October 16 and 17 at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania. The conference featured keynote speakers from the US Department of Defense and the think-tank community, and panels focused on assessing the People’s Republic of China’s understanding of and capability to carry out a protracted war in the Indo-Pacific. The conference brought together over 100 participants from government, military, US Intelligence Community, academic, and think-tank organizations. The conference papers were authored by expert speakers and panelists and were designed to provide insight into key People’s Republic of China and People’s Liberation Army advances that could enable Chinese forces in a future protracted war against a US-led coalition. The papers were also crafted to enable in-depth seminar discussions following each panel, allowing the authors to garner feedback to improve their analyses. The conference volume is organized into four sections based on the conference panels: understanding the People’s Republic of China’s views on historical and modern protracted wars; assessing the People’s Liberation Army’s operational endurance in the land, maritime, and air domains; analyzing China and the People’s Liberation Army’s ability to command and control a protracted war; and determining how Russia and North Korea could support the People’s Republic of China in a protracted war.
Topic:
Security, Armed Forces, Military Affairs, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
Political Geography:
China and Asia

23. A Human-Centric Framework: Employment Principles for Lethal Autonomous Weapons

Author:
Brennan Deveraux
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
This monograph challenges the Department of War to reframe the conversation about humans’ involvement in lethal autonomous weapons systems by codifying a human-centric framework built on the employment pillars of certification, authority, restriction, and accountability. Although an ample body of literature discusses lethal autonomous weapon systems, this monograph takes a novel approach by proposing a theoretical framework and applying it to historical and hypothetical practical scenarios involving weapons with autonomous characteristics. In terms of methodology, the monograph relies heavily on primary sources, including UN documents and Department of War publications, which are augmented by secondary sources from experts in the field and creative speculation about the characteristics of future warfare. The study’s conclusions will help US military and policy practitioners manage and integrate lethal autonomous weapon systems. This study is designed to spark a necessary and likely uncomfortable conversation about when relying on lethal machines is appropriate. The monograph provides tangible recommendations to help shape future policy decisions about developing and employing lethal autonomous weapon systems.
Topic:
Security, Drones, Emerging Technology, and Autonomous Weapons Systems
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

24. Has Syria turned a corner on the landmine threat?

Author:
Muaz Al Abdullah
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
While Syria's security landscape has shifted since the fall of the Assad regime, the deadliest threat to civilians is no longer concentrated on active frontlines. Instead, it lies hidden beneath the ground. Landmines and Explosive Remnants of War (ERW) continue to kill and injure civilians across the country.
Topic:
Security, Syrian War, and Landmines
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

25. The European Union and the war in Ukraine: More money, but not more Europe

Author:
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Despite the increasingly direct military threat from Russia and a weakening US commitment to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the European Union’s 27 member states have proven unwilling to harness their union to provide a common defense. Instead, EU members have responded individually, based on their own national interests and circumstances, such as their geographic proximity to Russia and levels of government debt. Failure to act collectively represents a wasted opportunity with potentially far-reaching and negative implications for the prospects of any further meaningful EU institutional integration. This Policy Brief analyzes the drivers of rearmament, especially military aid to Ukraine, and the ways in which such aid is increasingly being provided by different “coalitions of the willing” consisting of subsets of EU members and other countries, working with the Ukrainian military industrial sector. Kirkegaard argues that this approach will likely reduce the European Union to a peripheral role in providing for the continent’s military defense and national security. Instead, the European Union’s principal role will be that of a financier, limited to providing financial support for Ukraine, increasing sanctions pressure on Russia, overseeing Kyiv’s accession to the European Union, and trying to carve out a coordinating role in EU defense-related research and development. Rather than the European Union as a single institution, subsets of EU members together with nonmembers will drive European rearmament and the establishment of a largely independent long-term military deterrent to Russia.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

26. Promote the antidote: Reducing the risk from toxins

Author:
Bipartison Commission on Biodefense at Atlantic Council
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
While toxins occur naturally, contaminating food and feed with sometimes deadly consequences, malevolent actors have weaponized toxins for assassination and mass-casualty terror. Nation-states, terrorists, and lone actors continue to produce and weaponize these agents. The February 2026 confirmation by European governments that Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny was assassinated using epibatidine (a lethal neurotoxin derived from a South American poison dart frog) underscores the twenty-first century reality of state-sponsored toxin warfare. Yet, national and international defenses remain fractionated. Efforts to address toxin threats span the agriculture, defense, law enforcement, and public health sectors, which often operate in silos. The policymaking community is not fully aware of the expansion of the threat from toxins, instead focusing on contagious biological threats arising from viruses and bacteria. Significant and systemic governmental policy gaps persist despite a clear history of accidental contamination, criminal use, and the continued development of toxins in foreign offensive biological weapons programs. The United States cannot afford to ignore these vulnerabilities. It must identify and bridge these policy gaps immediately, as any biological event involving toxins will have profound implications for national and global security.
Topic:
Security, Biodefense, Defense Technology, and Toxins
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

27. Europe’s Frontier Countries: The EU’s Geopolitical Test

Author:
Tengiz Pkhaladze
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
Europe’s European neighbours have become the arena in which the European Union’s geopolitical credibility is being tested in real time. From Ukraine and Moldova to the Western Balkans, Belarus and the wider Black Sea region, developments along the EU’s immediate periphery now shape Europe’s own security environment more directly than at any point since the end of the Cold War. These frontier countries are no longer a buffer or a preparatory space for gradual integration; they are the place where power is contested, deterrence is measured, and Europe’s ability to act under pressure is exposed. This policy brief argues that the EU enters this geopolitical test with a widening gap between ambition and readiness. Over the past two years, Brussels has adopted an increasingly geopolitical vocabulary and launched a series of important initiatives from the White Paper on European Defence and the Readiness 2030 agenda to ReArm Europe, military mobility efforts, a new Black Sea strategy, and the European Political Community (EPC) initiative. Taken together, these steps acknowledge that Europe faces a harsher strategic environment. Yet they have not resolved the core problem: the EU still struggles to convert political declarations, financial resources and regulatory power into timely, coherent geopolitical action. Institutional fragmentation, slow decision-making and unresolved dependencies continue to limit Europe’s ability to shape outcomes in its own neighbourhood. The EU’s European neighbours function in this paper not as case studies, but as stress-tests. They reveal how the EU performs when confronted with fast-moving crises, security risks and external competition. Military mobility offers the most tangible example: despite repeated reports and funding commitments, cross-border movement of forces and equipment remains constrained by legal, infrastructural and political obstacles that are incompatible with Europe’s security rhetoric. Similarly, the Black Sea strategy signals growing awareness of regional importance, yet avoids hard choices about deterrence, escalation management and the division of labour between the EU and NATO. These internal challenges are now compounded by an external shock. The United States’ evolving strategic priorities underline that European assumptions about transatlantic leadership and alignment can no longer be taken for granted. This does not signal a US withdrawal from Europe, but it does expose how dependent the EU remains on external actors for security outcomes in regions it defines as vital to its own stability. The central conclusion of this brief is deliberately uncomfortable: Europe’s frontier countries are not testing the EU’s intentions, but its capacity to act as a geopolitical actor. The question facing the Union is no longer whether it wants to be more strategic, but whether it is willing to address the political, institutional and practical constraints that prevent it from doing so. If the EU cannot adapt its posture in the regions closest to it, its broader ambitions from strategic autonomy to global influence will remain aspirational.
Topic:
Security, Globalization, Governance, European Union, Institutions, Trade, and Single Market
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Eurasia, Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus, and Western Balkans

28. War is a mind game: countering weaponized information

Author:
Marek Havlík and Jiří Horáček
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
Cognitive warfare is the weaponization of information that exploits natural cognitive vulnerabilities to disrupt, manipulate and control individuals’ perceptions of reality. NATO’s current countermeasures, such as pre-bunking, strategic communications, and trust-building efforts, don’t fully address the deeper psychological and cognitive vulnerabilities targeted in cognitive warfare. In addition to common cognitive vulnerabilities like emotions, cognitive biases, and uncertainty, other critical traits are being exploited on the cognitive battlefield to manipulate and control vulnerable individuals.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Information Warfare, and Cognitive Warfare
Political Geography:
Global Focus

29. A plan for a World Trade Organization sectoral agreement on semiconductors

Author:
Petros C. Mavroidis and Mario R. Palacios
Publication Date:
07-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
To promote their economic security, or simply to inflict damage on other nations, countries are increasingly weaponising trade policy. To do so, trading nations must sidestep the rules-based system established in the aftermath of the Second World War because this system, in letter and spirit, opposes such behaviour. However, neglecting the rules-based system leads to uncertainty, and uncertainty incentivises trading nations to intensify their pursuit of national economic security, thus undermining the multilateral edifice even more. It does not have to be this way, however. Based on an analysis of trade in semiconductors (a product market in which there is clear weaponisation of trade policy), we argue that, while a comprehensive negotiation on economic security may be currently unrealistic, a sectoral agreement within the World Trade Organization would be both feasible and appropriate, and could provide a template for regulating economic security. Such an agreement should include non-discriminatory trade in high-end semiconductors and a negotiated list of segments of the covered product market, in which signatories will be allowed to erect barriers to protect economic/national security without being obliged to compensate affected parties.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, World Trade Organization, Governance, Multilateralism, Trade Policy, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:
Global Focus

30. The ungoverned sky: Drones and the domestic extremist threat

Author:
James Paterson and Lydia Khalil
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Domestic extremist actors are incorporating drone technology into operational capabilities and attack plots, taking inspiration from the battlefield. The number of violent plots utilising drones has increased sharply over the past five years. Domestic counter-drone frameworks are mismatched to the threat. Effective protection requires layered, multi-system approaches across potential civilian targets and critical infrastructure. Easy-to-access technologies, such as 3D printing, open-source design files, additive hardware, and AI-assisted navigation are lowering the barriers to modifying and weaponising drones.
Topic:
Security, Violent Extremism, Weapons, Drones, Artificial Intelligence, and 3D Printing
Political Geography:
Global Focus