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131. How the Agreement on the Path to Normalisation IF IMPLEMENTED changes relations between Kosovo and Serbia?

Author:
Ramadan Ilazi and Adelina Hasani
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
• The Agreement on the Path to Normalisation between Kosovo and Serbia (APN), creates a possibility for a new state of relations between the two countries, albeit a new status-quo. Through the APN Serbia practically recognizes statehood attributes of Kosovo, by accepting national symbols, as well as the obligation to respect the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Kosovo, and treat Kosovo on the basis of the principles of the Charter of the United Nations (UN), and the Treaty of the European Union (TEU). The APN also makes Kosovo and Serbia responsible to preserve the peace and “contribute to fruitful regional co-operation and security in Europe”. • The new state of relations (new status-quo), is dependent upon effective implementation of the Agreement on the Path to Normalisation. Without effective implementation, the APN becomes another conflict management tool, rather than an instrument for affirmative normalization of relations. The current trends are not optimistic for implementation and suggest that both parties, especially in Serbia, are focused on undermining the APN and its impact; • The Agreement on the Path to Normalisation between Kosovo and Serbia, while introduces significant affirmative changes in the Kosovo-Serbia relations – if implemented – it also includes elements that can potentially create legal and political hurdles for the Kosovo government. The APN marks the first time, that a Kosovo government accepts Serbia’s position on the status question. The preamble of the APN includes the following sentence: “[…] without prejudice to the different view of the Parties on fundamental questions, including on status questions”, but there is not reference to the ICJ advisory opinion on the declaration of independence of Kosovo. Based on the precedents set by previous agreements/arrangements between Kosovo and Serbia in the framework of the EU-facilitated normalization dialogue, whenever the phrasing “without prejudice to the status” was used, a reference to the ICJ advisory opinion on declaration of independence was also included; • The Agreement on the Path to Normalization of relations between Kosovo and Serbia has been welcomed by the European Council, which marks the first time that all 27 Member States of the European Union (EU) have endorsed an agreement from the normalization dialogue. The European Council conclusions note that APN puts “the relationship between both parties on a new and sustainable basis as a historic chance that should be seized by both parties” and urges implementation • In other words, if the optimistic scenario of all five recognizing Kosovo fails, then Spain and Cyprus should move towards the current Greek position on Kosovo, while Greece itself, alongside Slovakia and Romania, should move to formal recognition. In Kosovo there are concerns about the position of Romania, which is seen as moving further away from constructive engagement with Kosovo and recognition and closer to the position of Spain. • The role of the European Union (EU) as a facilitator in the dialogue for normalization of relations between Kosovo and Serbia, has arguably evolved into an arbiter, as a result of the Agreement on the Path to Normalization (APN), and the implementation roadmap. This means that for Kosovo and Serbia implementation of the provisions from the APN is a contractual obligation towards the EU in the framework of the European integration process. This arrangement was necessitated by the refusal of Serbia to sign the APN, although it agreed to it verbally. In this context, when neither side has signed the APN, the role of EU as an arbiter is a must, in order to guarantee implementation by both countries. • The transparency of the process of the dialogue for normalization of relations with Serbia has declined in Kosovo. The Kosovo government has limited its reporting on the normalization dialogue both to the public as well as to the Kosovo Assembly. In addition to this, Kosovo government has acted against previous precedents of asking the Kosovo Assembly for consent when accepting a high-level agreement with Serbia, such as the case from 2013 with the “First agreement of principles governing the normalization of relations”. • The implementation annex to the Agreement on the Path to Normalisation of relations between Kosovo and Serbia agreed in Ohrid in March, is vague, and lacks concrete measures to ensure implementation of the agreement, including sequencing of actions.
Topic:
Security, Sovereignty, Bilateral Relations, Normalization, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia

132. Is a compulsory military service feasible for Kosovo?

Author:
Gramos Sejdiu
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
During the general elections of February, 2021 in Kosovo, one of the commitments of the “Vetëvendosje!” (VV) party was to introduce a national conscription model based on 3+3 months of service. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, coupled with increasing tension with Serbia, who maintains very close ties with Russia, has brought the conscription model into spotlight in Kosovo. However, as the country aspires membership in NATO, the transition from a professional military force into the conscription model could potentially undermine that process. Currently, there are 13 countries in Europe that apply the conscription-based model for the armed forces, each facing different challenges with the system. According to the media reportings, it seems that Kosovo’s approach is based on the models of Switzerland, Israel and Norway. However, it is clear that while Kosovo can learn a lot from other countries, it needs to develop its own approach and model to conscription, and in this context certain social, political and economic aspects should be considered. In order to accommodate changing mission profiles and lowering military expenditures, European armies have been reduced in size, lessening the need for recruits. Despite the war in Ukraine, armies across Europe have focused on modernization and international cooperation such as NATO for national security guarantees. Due to the evolving modernization of army equipment, armed forces “require increasingly higher training standards”. As a result, several nations have shifted towards professional armies in an effort to standardize their militaries and improve overall operational preparedness.
Topic:
Security, Armed Forces, Conscription, and Military
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Kosovo

133. Financing Women, Peace and Security: A Review of WPS National Action Plans from 2005 to 2022

Author:
Our Secure Future
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Our Secure Future
Abstract:
This publication is a policy brief accompanying an upcoming in-depth report on financing Women, Peace and Security (WPS) National Action Plans (NAP). This brief provides an overview of WPS NAPs, as well as the current state of funding for WPS NAP implementation, and a breakdown of this data by region. Stay tuned for the upcoming report to learn more about financing WPS NAPs. Key Findings: • As of early 2023, 31 countries out of 101 have estimated the amount of money required to implement WPS NAP activities. Available information does not illuminate whether these funds are secured. • More than 50 WPS NAPs out of 101 mention that a budget is needed to implement WPS activities, but do not include specification of funding. • The majority of WPS NAPs with budget estimates identify responsible parties for activity implementation, including ministries and/or government institutions, predominantly related to foreign affairs and gender equality.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Budget, Women, Finance, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

134. Germany’s Energiewende: Synergies, Trade-offs and Political Drivers

Author:
Alexia Faus Onbargi and Ines Dombrowsky
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
There has been a significant policy shift in Germany’s energy transition – the Energiewende – resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent war. The Easter Package, rolled out in Spring 2022, set a series of ambitious renewable energy targets and laws to enable both climate action and energy security. These are to be implemented in tandem with existing laws such as the Coal Exit Law and the Federal Climate Change Act. Aligning policies and targets to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and ensure energy reliability and affordability requires concerted policy coherence, a policy process to pursue multiple goals in a way that maximises synergies and minimises trade-offs. Reducing trade-offs (and their consequences) is especially crucial if the energy transition is to be just for all and become a vehicle towards a broader Just Transition, as well as to achieve the aims of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (including “leaving no one behind”) and the Paris Agreement. This policy brief first examines some of the most important policies – and (in)coherences – pertaining to the Energiewende, with a specific focus on the state of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), one of Germany’s main coal-mining regions. The brief then goes on to explore the main political drivers – through the lens of ideas, interests and institutions – of policy (in)coherence in two parallel Energiewende policy processes that are particularly relevant to the electricity sector: the coal phase-out and the phase-in of onshore wind. Although solar power and green hydrogen are also key to a successful Energiewende, these are not the subject of this brief. Our insights derive from policy document analysis and 28 semi-structured interviews. To move towards a Just Transition, the following recommendations are made to promote coherence in Germany’s Energiewende and inform the ongoing revision of the NRW Sustainability Strategy (last updated in 2020). The recommendations may also be of interest to the newly appointed NRW Advisory Board on Sustainability: • Mitigate ideological, institutional and interest-based barriers to ambitious climate action by ensuring a political commitment to policy coherence. In NRW in particular, this means meeting recent promises to deliver a coal phase-out by 2030 and lift the 1,000 metre (m) “rule” (i.e. 1 kilometre (km) between residential buildings and wind turbines), as well as mitigating arising conflicts between residents’ interests, particularly around the sharing of profits. Such commitments should be made explicit in the revised NRW Sustainability Strategy and legislated. • Promote greater political equality in all Energiewende policy-making decision processes at all governance levels (i.e. federal, state and municipal) in consultative and participatory mechanisms towards greater energy democracy. Reducing political in-equality is key to increase the public’s acceptance of renewable energy projects (e.g. through cooperatives) – one of the aims of the latest NRW Sustainability Strategy.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Energy Transition, and Development Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

135. Governing the Ocean

Author:
Christophe Prazuck
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The sea is a far away place, so immense as to be abstract: you don't live there, you don't vote there, you don't own private property there. Understanding its importance, its link with our daily lives, understanding Fernand Braudel's phrase "the sea is wealth", is not the result of instinct, of familiarity with a land, it is always the result of an intellectual construction. It is perhaps tinged with fascination too, for poets and novelists, for walkers along the "Sentier des Douaniers" in a strong westerly breeze. Doubling as wonder, certainly, for the scientists who unlock the splendours of marine biology (the appearance of life in the primordial soup, the creation of an oxygenated atmosphere by unicellular algae, the key to nerve impulses discovered in the eye of a squid, etc.) or who examine the immeasurable power of the mechanisms and chemistry of the ocean, such as the meandering Gulf Stream, whose flow is greater than that of all the rivers on earth combined, or the quantity of heat retained in the first three metres of the ocean, which is greater than that contained in the entire atmosphere. But if the European Union, this maritime giant in the making, is taking an interest in ocean issues, and if the United Nations has made this decade that of the ocean sciences for sustainable development, it is because the ocean's state of health, our knowledge of it and the efficacy of our governance, will determine a part of our future. Indeed, the ocean is at the crossroads of a number of decisive pathways. Firstly, the path of climate change, since the ocean mitigates this as it absorbs 25% of the carbon dioxide[1] we emit and 90% of the excess heat generated by the greenhouse effect[2]. In the process, it is changing, warming, expanding, acidifying and 'deoxygenating': as its ecosystems are affected, it will probably lose some of its effectiveness as a climate shield. Secondly, the path of biodiversity which is under the threat of the combined effects of climate, marine pollution and over-exploitation, the disruption of which could affect the hundreds of millions of humans who depend on fish stocks, and lead to the disappearance forever of the biological treasures forged by evolution, which teach us about life and its development as well as our own physiology, our own pathologies and, sometimes, their remedies. Thirdly, the coastal pathway, where low-lying areas will be home to a billion human beings by 2050, while sea levels will rise, encroaching on coastal areas and amplifying the impact of extreme weather phenomena. Fourthly, the economic path which places the ocean at the centre of all our commercial and digital exchanges, globalisation being first and foremost a maritimisation of the world. Finally, the trajectory of power, which uses the seas as a stage for competition for global or regional hegemony.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Climate Change, Governance, and Oceans and Seas
Political Geography:
Global Focus

136. Space Fordism and Europe

Author:
Olivier Bomsel and Alice Dagicour
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
2022 was a record year in terms of space activities, with 180 launches and almost 2,500 satellites sent into orbit around the world. Yet in the same year, Europe carried out only six launches. And for good reason: nine of the fifteen launches carried out in 2021 involved Soyuz launchers, the remnants of a now defunct cooperation with Russia. European players now have to turn to India to launch the satellites in the OneWeb constellation, which are built in the United States. While Ariane 5 recently made a successful final launch on 5 July from Europe's Spaceport , the delay incurred with Ariane 6 means that Europe will not have an operational launcher before 2024, and will not have the resources to match the launch rates of its American and Chinese competitors. What's more, some of the launcher's carrying capacity has already been pre-empted by Amazon for satellites in the Kuiper constellation, which is continuing the American colonisation of low-Earth orbits (LEO). After having been the leader in the manufacture and launch of commercial satellites, Europe appears to have fallen out of favour. So, what has happened? Is it possible to catch up? And on what terms?
Topic:
Security, Industry, and Satellites
Political Geography:
Europe and Space

137. The European Union's preventive diplomacy: the exercise does not (yet) make the master

Author:
Željana Zovko
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Ten years after the establishment of the European External Action Service, discussions are still ongoing about the lack of a single voice related to the EU’s external policy and the European Union’s global role[1]. Politic al leaders have still not found the visionary approach to start building that railroad to prevent conflicts, to fully align and act as a caretaker of the tragedies that we are facing in this volatile world. The global order is changing rapidly. Emerging powers are confronting the traditional players. New technologies and further globalisation are leading to increased international competition. Together with climate change, food security and migration, these are just a few factors that have caused rising tensions and led to conflicts across the world which are also challenging the EU. With the Russian aggression against Ukraine, a war at the bloc’s eastern border is directly threatening the security of the entire European continent. If the European Union wants to maintain its economic and diplomatic strength globally, it needs to rethink its foreign policymaking and invest more in the prevention of these challenges. As a Member of the European Parliament, I have been appointed as rapporteur for “the role of preventive diplomacy in tackling frozen conflicts around the world, missed opportunity or change for the future”. In this role, I have drafted a set of recommendations on how the EU can improve its preventive actions. To be able to provide a constructive contribution, it is important to look back at how the EU has dealt with conflicts in the past. For years, European leaders have been discussing the EU’s preventive diplomacy. The Treaty of Lisbon states that the EU’s policies aim to “preserve peace, prevent conflicts and strengthen international security”. The EU Global Strategy (2016) presents a detailed overview of the principles behind the EU’s preventive policies. With the Strategic Compass adopted in March 2022, the leaders of the European Member States recognise that the bloc needs to double its efforts to implement an integrated approach to security, conflicts and crises. Despite these reflections, recent events have shown that the current preventive measures are often far from sufficient.
Topic:
Security, European Union, Multilateralism, International Order, and Preventive Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Europe

138. 2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment

Author:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide for academics and practitioners in the defense community on the current challenges and opportunities in the strategic environment. This year’s publication outlines key strategic issues across the four broad themes of Regional Challenges and Opportunities, Domestic Challenges, Institutional Challenges, and Domains Impacting US Strategic Advantage. These themes represent a wide range of topics affecting national security and provide a global assessment of the strategic environment to help focus the defense community on research and publication. Strategic competition with the People’s Republic of China and the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remain dominant challenges to US national security interests across the globe. However, the evolving security environment also presents new and unconventional threats, such as cyberattacks, terrorism, transnational crime, and the implications of rapid technological advancements in fields such as artificial intelligence. At the same time, the US faces domestic and institutional challenges in the form of recruiting and retention shortfalls in the all-volunteer force, the prospect of contested logistics in large-scale combat operations, and the health of the US Defense Industrial Base. Furthermore, rapidly evolving security landscapes in the Arctic region and the space domain pose unique potential challenges to the Army’s strategic advantage.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Corruption, Migration, Science and Technology, Terrorism, Partnerships, Weapons, Xi Jinping, Strategic Competition, Logistics, People's Liberation Army (PLA), and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, China, Europe, Eurasia, Ukraine, Middle East, Asia, Arctic, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

139. DO NO HARM: US AID TO AFRICA AND CIVILIAN SECURITY

Author:
Patricia L. Sullivan
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:
During her recent trip to Africa, US Vice President Kamala Harris announced a $100 million commitment over ten years to West African Nations to fend off the increasing threat of extremist groups. The announcement followed President Biden’s pledge of $55 billion to the continent for the next three years. While these promises reveal a US commitment to greater engagement with African states, the often-dodged question is whether citizens of these states will benefit. Will US security aid improve human security in fragile and conflict-affected African states? How is US security assistance likely to affect governance and state repression for citizens that often suffer at the hands of both extremist groups and their own security forces?
Topic:
Security, Development, Human Rights, War on Terror, Civilians, Armed Conflict, Military Aid, and Protection
Political Geography:
Africa, West Africa, and United States of America

140. Shining a Light on New Jersey’s Secret State Intelligence System

Author:
Race and Rights (CSRR) Center for Security
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:
Civil liberties in the United States have been eroding for over two decades. Under the auspices of national security, federal agencies working with their state counterparts have built an expansive homeland security apparatus, facilitated by laws granting national security officials broader surveillance and investigative authorities. Prior to the attempted insurrection of January 6, 2021, national security powers nearly exclusively targeted Muslim and Arab communities – with many South Asian communities targeted in the immediate wake of 9/11 as well. At the same time, these powers have also furthered the mass incarceration of African American communities. The most invasive, and simultaneously secret, post-9/11 tool has been state fusion centers. Fusion centers coordinate federal, state, and local law enforcement through complex intelligence-gathering systems that retain, analyze, synthesize, and distribute data – with minimal oversight. They have become institutionalized within the American law enforcement framework post-9/11 despite little, if any, tangible results to show for their intended original purpose: preventing terrorism. New Jersey’s Regional Operations Intelligence Center is a prime example of expansive over-policing that targets marginalized communities fueled by the red herring of national security concerns – while much of its work remains opaque and inscrutable. Shining a Light on New Jersey’s Secret State Intelligence System examines New Jersey law enforcement’s unique use of CIA-style intelligence-gathering, some of its known harms in certain, well-documented instances like the City of Camden, and the Kafkaesque legal regime that works to keep vast amounts of public information out of the public eye. Three recommendations for New Jersey policymakers would help reign in these unaccountable drivers of mass incarceration and allay concerns that civil liberties are not still on the chopping block for Muslim, Arab, South Asian, and African American communities in the Garden State: Governor Murphy should appoint an ombudsman to oversee New Jersey’s intelligence system. The mechanism for this appointment already exists by way of a long-ago issued executive order – but has never been used. This ombudsman should have the authority to oversee the ROIC’s activities in collaboration with minority communities most impacted by surveillance. The New Jersey legislature should mandate regular reporting by the Chief Intelligence Director to ensure that the state’s domestic intelligence-gathering apparatus is focusing on actual terrorist threats while preserving civil liberties for all. Civil society should conduct a People’s Audit of the fusion center to determine the privacy impact on New Jersey’s diverse populations.
Topic:
Security, Intelligence, Law Enforcement, Minorities, Counter-terrorism, Islamophobia, Civil Liberties, Arabs, and Muslims
Political Geography:
North America, New Jersey, and United States of America