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1. Current Dynamics in Syria and the Way Forward

Author:
Khogir Wirya
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:
Recent events in Syria represent a turning point in the history of the Middle East, where internal dynamics are intertwined with regional and international ones. Syria is not just a theater for local conflicts, but has become an arena for competition between major powers, which directly affects the nature of possible solutions. Within this complex landscape, the Kurdish issue stands out as one of the most sensitive and urgent priorities, with its reciprocal impact on the other components of the Syrian conflict and the country’s future.
Topic:
Political stability, Syrian War, and Kurds
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

2. Ronnie C. Chan: The Past, Present, and Future of U.S.-China Relations

Author:
Ronnie C. Chan and Lien-Hang Nguyen
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
December 2, 2024 — Ronnie C. Chan, Honorary Chair of Hang Lung Properties and Chair Emeritus of the Asia Society, speaks with Lien-Hang Nguyen, Director of the Weatherhead East Asian Institute at Columbia University, about the implications of the 2024 U.S. presidential election for the future of U.S.-China relations and global stability. Columbia University Interim President Katrina Armstrong and University Professor Jeffrey Sachs contribute introductory remarks.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Elections, and Political stability
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

3. Enabling Popular Participation in Transitional Justice in Somalia

Author:
Farhia Mohamud
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:
Given the country's increasing stability, transitional justice has become an option for addressing the violence and gross human rights violations that have marked Somalia's history from the colonial period to the present. Experiences in other African countries over the past three decades show that transitional justice processes are more likely to be effective if they are rooted in popular participation, particularly of victims/survivors and communities affected by violence. This study explores emerging measures linked to transitional justice in Somalia, which are rooted in local practices and build on local resources, to provide recommendations to state authorities, civil society, and multilateral actors, including the African Union, for enabling popular participation and thereby a more contextual, inclusive, and effective transitional justice process in Somalia. Based on extensive fieldwork with 114 participants in Mogadishu, Dhuusamreeb, and Gaalkacyo, the study examines formal and non-formal measures already occurring in Somalia to identify ways in which future transitional justice processes could enable people's agency over the goals, forms, and outcomes of measures dealing with the past.
Topic:
Civil Society, Human Rights, Political stability, Transitional Justice, and Political Participation
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

4. Europe’s Strategic Imperative: Advancing Sustainability for Global Stability

Author:
Reinhold Brender
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Europe’s long-term security depends not only on military strength, but also on global stability shaped by sustainable development and effective multilateralism. From the outset, Donald Trump’s second presidency has placed additional strain on an international system already under pressure, further weakening key pillars of the rules-based international order. Geopolitical divisions continue to paralyse the UN Security Council on critical issues. In this increasingly fragmented landscape, the EU must advance a dual security imperative: strengthening its defence capabilities while tackling the root causes of instability beyond its borders. This policy note outlines six strategic priorities for the EU to advance security through sustainability: (i) implementing the UN Pact for the Future; (ii) helping finance global sustainability through more innovative and coordinated mechanisms; (iii) shaping a strategy for EU engagement with the Global South that reflects geopolitical realities and mutual interests; (iv) delivering on the promise of Global Gateway by addressing operational shortcomings and sharpening its strategic focus; (v) rethinking the SDG framework beyond 2030 to sustain global development momentum; and (vi) winning the battle of narratives through stronger, more strategic communication and credible engagement. These priorities are examined against the backdrop of growing geopolitical fragmentation and structural vulnerabilities that shape both global stability and Europe’s strategic outlook.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Political stability, Multilateralism, Economic Development, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Europe

5. Saraya Ansar al-Sunnah’s Micro-insurgency in Syria

Author:
Daniele Garofalo
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Saraya Ansar al-Sunnah—a Salafi-jihadist “micro-insurgency” group operating mainly in northern Syria’s rural and peripheral areas—stands out among the armed factions to emerge after the fall of Former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024. Led by Abu Aisha al-Shami, the group consists of several hundred fighters, including former Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) members, while displaying strong ideological affinity and potential for future collaboration with the Islamic State (IS). Saraya Ansar al-Sunnah’s focus on sectarian violence and symbolic attacks poses a threat to local stability and risks escalating wider community conflicts in Syria, despite the group’s limited overt military capacity.
Topic:
Terrorism, Insurgency, Sectarianism, Islamic State, Political stability, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Post-Conflict, Salafi-Jihadism, and Saraya Ansar al-Sunnah
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

6. Silence in the Sahel does not Equal Stability

Author:
Nina Wilén
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The Sahel is no longer on the frontpages. In the past few years – even in the past few months – the geopolitical context has changed radically. The Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine understandably turned European attention to the East in 2022. The Israel – Palestine armed conflict which restarted in 2023 and has taken unprecedented proportions has also called for attention, while the last three years of Rwanda- supported rebel invasion in the East of the DRC recently caught the news. In more recent weeks, the new US administration’s deeply disturbing dismantling of national institutions and international order has predictably stolen the headlines. Yet, in the meantime the different crises which have plagued the Sahel over more than a decade are continuing and the situation is worsening. The military regimes which came to power in the latest coup wave in the Sahel region on the promise of quelling jihadist violence have not been able to deliver on this promise. Instead, jihadist groups are expanding across the region, with deadlier attacks against civilians in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, the three states which created the Alliance of Sahelian States (AES) in 2023. The Sahel is today the region in the world which is the most affected by jihadist violence. The AES countries are also experiencing a deepening authoritarian turn, as the transitions to democratic elections and return to constitutional order have been stalled with continuous extensions of transitional period and repression against opposition voices. These developments are unfolding within a heavily restricted media landscape, where local independent and foreign journalists and news agencies are either silenced through repression or driven into exile, while civil society faces continued intimidation and oppression, including forced military recruitment, arbitrary arrests and in some cases summary executions. This article analyses the latest developments in the security and political sphere in the Sahel with a focus on the AES states. It examines the expansion of jihadist violence and assesses the political situation. It argues that despite the current geopolitical context and Europe’s decreasing influence, there is still a need for the EU and its member states to stay engaged. It is crucial to closely monitor developments in the region to better grasp the political and security landscape, and potential implications both within and beyond the African continent. This article is the first of a series of two analyzing the shifting political and security landscape in the Sahel. The next article will examine the AES countries’ shifting regional and international partnerships.
Topic:
Security, Authoritarianism, Political stability, Violence, Coup, and Salafi-Jihadism
Political Geography:
Africa and Sahel

7. The Fog: The Opacity That Warns

Author:
Joris Van Bladel
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Now in its fourth year, Russia’s war on Ukraine has become more than a battlefield confrontation. It is fire, ice, and fog at once: the hot war in Ukraine fought with mass, drones, and attrition; the cold confrontation with NATO, centred on escalation management; and the fog of Russia’s internal struggle, marked by fatigue, militarisation, repression, and a growing social isolation, as much of the population seeks to distance itself from the war both mentally and in daily life. Considered alone, each dimension distorts the picture. Taken together, they reveal a Russia both fragile and resilient, archaic and adaptive. This is Part III: The Fog, examining Russia’s internal front—the least legible dimension of the conflict. The system performs strength while pressure accumulates beneath the surface: raison d’état coexists with societal passivity, producing fragility that yields lurches rather than orderly decline. This Policy Brief maps that opacity through an economy of exhaustion, the “veteran variable” as battlefield costs migrate home, a society that holds still under pressure, elite cohesion sustained by fear and performance, and the indicators that often precede sudden shifts. The policy lesson is simple: do not mistake opacity for stability—prepare for discontinuity, monitor the silent front, and prioritise endurance over spectacle.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, European Union, Political stability, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

8. Fragile States Index 2024 – Annual Report

Author:
Nate Haken, Paul Turner, Emily Sample, Fatoumata Maiga, and Perin Arkun
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Fund for Peace
Abstract:
The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and fragile states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
Topic:
Climate Change, Authoritarianism, Fragile States, and Political stability
Political Geography:
India, Brazil, Mozambique, Senegal, Tunisia, Somalia, Balochistan, South Sudan, Sahel, Global Focus, Niger, and Burkina Faso

9. Security and stability scenarios for the Western Balkans

Author:
Wouter Zweers
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
This report has examined how the Netherlands, the EU and NATO can enhance their security approach to address potential security developments in the Western Balkans in the period up until the end of 2029. Therefore, it has first assessed the current security and stability situation in the Western Balkans, displaying current threats to territorial, physical, economic, ecological, social and political, and international (legal) security and stability. ''The current tensions in Bosnia and Herzegovina after the conviction of Bosnian-Serb leader Milorad Dodik show that broader instability in the Western Balkans remains a real risk. Our latest report doesn’t just look at the chances of (armed) conflict—it also explores how climate change, organized crime, and economic and democratic developments shape the region’s long-term stability. The EU and US play a key role in tackling security challenges in the Western Balkans, but their sustained cooperation will be crucial'', reasercher Wouter Zweers says. Especially the lack of normalisation between Serbia and Kosovo and persisting secessionist agendas and a lack of reconciliation in Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as a manifestation of ethnic tensions and organised crime have in the last few years threatened physical and territorial security in the region. The report also highlights continued weaknesses in the democratic governance of the Western Balkan countries, which also negatively impact economic stability and bring about migrationrelated security challenges. The region’s ecological security is mainly threatened by (climate change-)induced natural disasters, environmental pollution, as well as insufficient energy security. Lastly, stability is undermined by external actors such as especially Russia, but also by the effects of the war in Ukraine, heightened global geopolitical tensions, global pressure on democracy and uncertainty surrounding transatlantic cooperation. Subsequently, the report has presented (the synopses of) four scenarios that showcase fictional but potential security developments in the Balkan region over the next five years. Two of those scenarios foresee a violent escalation, respectively in Bosnia and Herzegovina and in North Kosovo. The other two scenarios see, respectively, a relatively successful EU integration path marked by external security challenges, and a muddle-through scenario with an intensification of several already persistent security challenges.
Topic:
Security, NATO, European Union, Political stability, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Kosovo, Serbia, and Western Balkans

10. Palestinian Elections: A Vital Step Toward a Stable Political Settlement

Author:
Ephraim Lavie
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
A political settlement to resolve the conflict with the Palestinians once Hamas is weakened, and after an intermediate stage in which a reconstituted Palestinian Authority is established with the promise of a real political horizon, is a vital Israeli interest. Achieving this goal requires the election of a pragmatic Palestinian leadership that is deemed legitimate by the Palestinian public and is therefore able to realize the vision of a viable Palestinian state and a stable political settlement that provides security for Israel. In order to prevent the election of extremists opposed to a political settlement, legitimate restrictions must be placed on the individuals and groups running for the post of president and for membership in the legislative council. These limitations will be based on the three conditions that the Quartet countries laid out for Hamas after its victory in the 2006 elections: abandoning the path of terrorism, recognizing Israel, and affirming the previous agreements it signed with the PLO. The elections must take place in the context of an advanced political process offering hope to the Palestinian people in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, and increasing their support for a settlement approach. To that end, Israel will have to declare its commitment to a political process designed to result in a two-state solution, and adopt confidence-building measures that demonstrate its intent to reach a political settlement, including a halt of construction in the settlements. At the same time, the international community, led by the United States and the European Union, will have to guarantee their recognition of a Palestinian state. The United States will also help train the Palestinian Authority’s security apparatuses, contribute to the development of its economy, and promote reforms in government institutions. Israel and the international community must lay the groundwork for orderly, internationally supervised elections in the West Bank, East Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip that will ensure the election of a suitable national leadership for the Palestinian people. Having won the trust of the people, such a leadership will enjoy legitimacy and be able to promote a stable settlement with Israel. It will also contribute, over time, to strengthening the moderate elements in society and weakening extremist, religious, and nationalist opposition elements.
Topic:
Elections, Political stability, Negotiation, Peace, Palestinian Authority, and Israeli–Palestinian Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and West Bank

11. A Vision for Regional – International Partnership for Gaza Rebuilding and Palestinian Economic Leap

Author:
Yitzhak Gal and Maya Sion-Tzidkiyahu
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
The immense extent of destruction in the Gaza Strip caused by the 2023-2024 Gaza War, requires massive rebuilding. This paper sets a vision of a long-term economic rebuilding plan, which is aimed at ending the humanitarian crisis and creating a functioning and sustainable economy. The rebuilding of the Gazan economy, and the Palestinian economy at large, should be planned and designed as part of an international-regional political and economic vision of stabilizing, strengthening and improving Israeli-Palestinian and Israeli-Arab relations, in the broader context of strengthening stability and prosperity in the Middle East.
Topic:
Reconstruction, Political stability, Humanitarian Crisis, Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

12. The New Geopolitical Formation in the Wider Horn of Africa: Consequences for Europe

Author:
Jan Pospisil
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
The ongoing conflicts in Sudan, Somalia, and Ethiopia significantly destabilise the Wider Horn of Africa and impact the broader Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. These conflicts, rooted in fragmented statehood and exacerbated by internal ethnic, regional, and political divisions, threaten regional stability through increased migration and disruptions in the Red Sea. The conflicts are deeply internationalised, involving military engagements from neighbouring countries and attracting global powers due to significant geostrategic stakes. Traditional Western influences are waning. Instead, new actors like China, Russia, and various Gulf States are heavily engaged in the region. For Europe, the instability in the Horn of Africa presents urgent challenges, primarily related to migration, the security of maritime routes, and potential spillover effects in neighbouring regions like Egypt. Addressing these issues requires enhanced political engagement, addressing humanitarian needs, reforming peacekeeping efforts, and strengthening security cooperation. Europe’s response should be robust and coordinated, aiming to mitigate immediate threats and contribute to long-term stability in the region, reflecting the complexity of the intertwined interests and ongoing conflicts.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Political stability, Conflict, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Horn of Africa

13. Analyzing how rampant organized crime is impacting Latin America’s stability ?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
The ongoing violent tensions engulfing some Latin American countries, starting with Ecuador in the east and extending to Haiti in the Caribbean in the west, raise questions about the motives behind the growing illicit activities of organized crime across the continent. Those activities include drug production and trafficking, human trafficking, arms smuggling, and others. Such transnational crimes pose security threats and challenges to the countries of the region and neighboring states, foremost among them the United States, which has historically regarded Latin America as its backyard, allowing no one to approach the continent or interfere in its affairs without prior permission.
Topic:
Crime, Political stability, Violence, Organized Crime, Gangs, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Latin America, Haiti, and Ecuador

14. Geopolitics and Geography: A Realigned EU Strategy for Stability in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean

Author:
Bernard Siman
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The new EU Commission should commence its geopolitical thinking by acknowledging that geography is not kind to those who ignore her. The new European Parliament has the unique opportunity to become perhaps the first geopolitical parliament through a similar process. States, political leaders and societies ignore their geographic realities at their peril. Perceptions of location, distance and neighbourhoods can be dangerously distorted when they drift too far off from actual geographic realities. Digital technology, ease of air travel (bypassing the unpleasant geographic realities on the ground), combined with over three decades of peace in Europe, and 50 years in the Middle East, have created the distorted perceptions that somehow Israel’s and Ukraine’s neighbourhood was liberal Europe. These collective perceptions, untethered from their geographic realities, eclipsed perhaps the fact that both have neighbours with whom they have been at differing degrees of long-simmering conflicts. In reality, however, Israel and its neighbours have not succeeded at resolving the conflicts on its very borders, betraying the perception of peace. It is as if those neighbours with whom Israel has been in conflict had disappeared.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, Political stability, and Geography
Political Geography:
Europe and Middle East

15. Aligned in the sand: How Europeans can help stabilise the Sahel

Author:
Will Brown
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
A decade of military, humanitarian, and developmental European interventions in the Sahelian states of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have failed comprehensively. Coups have swept the region. Burkina Faso is close to complete collapse. Europe thus faces three openly antagonistic military juntas on its southern flank, which are cutting deals with rival outside powers like Russia. The combination of past failure, disinformation campaigns, and the wars in Gaza and Ukraine have scattered European states’ approaches in all directions. Some have walked away from the Sahel completely. Others have stayed but resisted cooperation with the Sahelian juntas. A few have sought to remain engaged. European governments should stay involved in the Sahel wherever possible. The region is part of Europe’s neighbourhood; rival outside powers have no qualms about mass human-rights abuses; and further disengagement will only open up new inroads for malign actors. For European governments, this means frankly acknowledging past failures in the Sahel, gathering behind a new strategy for engagement, and supporting Gulf of Guinea states. A particular focus should be funding anti-disinformation policies.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Political stability, Military Intervention, and Disinformation
Political Geography:
Europe, North Africa, and Sahel

16. Proxy battles: Iraq, Iran, and the turmoil in the Middle East

Author:
Hamzeh Hadad
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
The war in Gaza has deepened the Middle East’s fault lines. Iran and its proxies and the US and Israel have engaged in a cycle of tit-for-tat attacks across the region, with the Israeli bombing of the Iranian consulate in Syria and Iran’s direct retaliation against Israel threatening to escalate into a regional war. Iraqi paramilitaries operating as part of Iran’s ‘axis of resistance’ have also attacked US forces in Iraq, who responded with reprisals of their own. This, and the increasing risk of a wider war, imperils the relative stability Iraq has enjoyed over the past few years and the country’s fledgling role as a regional mediator. Iran’s influence in Iraq increased following the US invasion of 2003 and the fall of Saddam Hussein – but their relationship is far from being a simple agent-proxy arrangement. Iran’s strongest influence is through its paramilitaries’ presence in Iraq’s security apparatus, but Iraq has also exhibited some political independence from its neighbour and maintains financial leverage over Iran. Europeans can help increase Iraq’s autonomy. In the economic sector, they should strengthen its financial institutions through global integration and digitisation. European countries can also work alongside Gulf states to broaden their ties with Iraq, including in foreign investment and a shift from a development or humanitarian aid framework towards normal bilateral ties. However, for any European policy to be successful in Iraq, it must be designed within a broader framework of ending the war in Gaza and resolving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict – without which the dangerous escalation across the Middle East may continue.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Political stability, Proxy Groups, Regional Politics, and Axis of Resistance
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, and Middle East

17. Notes Towards a Multifaceted Approach to Political Stability

Author:
Radu Carp and Łukasz Perlikowski
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
This paper seeks to improve comprehension of issues related to political stability. The primary elucidating tool employed is the multifaceted approach to political stability. This is the idea that similar political stability mechanisms can be observed in many different political contexts. These phenomena consist of conspicuous discrepancies between the stability of dimensions or layers of the political sphere. The lack of congruency between political stability and economic stability, differences between the stability of government authorities and the stability of the whole political system, or the gap between social and political stability are examples that are not difficult to grasp in ordinary observations of political appearances. The main task of this paper is to explain and elaborate on the reasons behind this phenomenon. As an additional value, some suggestions of how our findings can change the view on the method of research on political stability are to be found. The outcome of our investigation can be applied to comparative politics, constitutional studies, and political system analysis. The paper is particularly significant for empirically oriented political theory.
Topic:
Political stability, Asynchronism, and System Analysis Approach
Political Geography:
Global Focus

18. Unrest on Repeat: Plotting a Route to Stability in Peru

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
No country in Latin America suffers higher rates of dissatisfaction with democracy and government institutions than Peru. Absent remedies for political polarisation and state dysfunction, the mass protests that rocked the country in late 2022 could easily recur, bringing comparably violent crackdowns.
Topic:
Democracy, Political stability, Institutions, Polarization, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
South America and Peru

19. Northern Kosovo: Asserting Sovereignty amid Divided Loyalties

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Tensions are rising in Kosovo’s restive Serb-majority north, as Pristina enforces its writ against the backdrop of continuing disputes with Belgrade. The parties and outside supporters should first work on defusing the short-term risk of violence and then look for ways to foster lasting stability.
Topic:
Sovereignty, Political stability, Domestic Politics, and Violence
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Kosovo

20. Landscape of Change: Syria and the Middle East after the Assad Regime's Fall

Author:
Sara Nowacka, Aleksandra Maria Spancerska, and Michał Wojnarowicz
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
A successful offensive by Syrian rebels in December this year led to the fall of one of the most brutal modern regimes. Most Syrians have welcomed the end of Bashar al-Assad’s rule, although divisions within the opposition forces pose a risk to Syria’s potential stability after 13 years of civil war. To reduce them, international assistance is needed to rebuild Syrian institutions and to help hold accountable those regime members responsible for war crimes and crimes against humanity.
Topic:
Regime Change, Political stability, Syrian War, Accountability, Institutions, Bashar al-Assad, Post-Conflict, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria