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1252. Plan B after Brexit – What Britain can expect negotiating a Swiss-type arrangement with the EU
- Author:
- Jacqueline Breidlid and Cenni Najy
- Publication Date:
- 06-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- For those wishing to see the UK exit from the EU, Switzerland has become a poster child, an example of how a country outside the EU can retain access to the EU’s internal market, thereby flourishing economically, and yet retaining its sovereignty and independence. But can a similar arrangement to that of Switzerland really provide a suitable alternative – a “Plan B” – for the UK’s relationship with the EU? With the referendum providing potential exit for the UK from the EU rapidly approaching, a Swiss-type plan B deserves some serious consideration. This paper examines the central claims made by those who see Switzerland as a model for the UK’s future relationship with the EU and argues that the Swiss model is no Holy Grail for the UK.
- Topic:
- International Affairs and Brexit
- Political Geography:
- Europe
1253. Forgotten lessons for the Eurozone
- Author:
- John Ryan
- Publication Date:
- 05-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- A Monetary Union is one where there is a single fiat currency with a single monetary authority (a central bank). It also has a single interest and exchange rate, and a single legal entity responsible for issuing that currency across a geographic area. This combination of features required for a true monetary union suggests that many previous monetary unions, including the Latin Monetary Union (LMU) and the Scandinavian Monetary Union (SMU) were not proper monetary unions as such, while the Austro-Hungarian Monetary Union (AHMU) was and the Eurozone is.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Europe
1254. The rise of single motherhood in the EU: analysis and propositions
- Author:
- Sophie Heine
- Publication Date:
- 05-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- This paper will address a rising issue within the EU – the increase of single parent families. Firstly, we will draw a general picture of the disadvantages faced by single parents and outline the possible causes of this phenomenon. Secondly, we will attempt to sketch possible alternative solutions that could inspire policymakers at the national and European levels. Both in our analysis and recommendations, we will put a particular emphasis on the dynamic role played by norms and representations.
- Topic:
- International Affairs and Global Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Europe
1255. How can we enhance our security without damaging our liberty?
- Author:
- Sophie Heine
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- How can we reinforce internal security without destroying basic freedoms? This dilemma will become increasingly topical in the context of rising terrorist threats and in view of some of the responses already put in place at the national level. Many observers have pointed out the threat that these measures pose to individual freedom. But few have highlighted their relative inefficiency. Indeed, if the right to security is one of the founding reasons for political government and one of its main sources of legitimacy, can states still guarantee this basic right? This article examines this dilemma and focuses more specifically on its implications for the notion and practice of sovereignty. It also sketches a strong, but nuanced, rescue of sovereignty at the European level in order to assure individual security while, at the same time, protecting our freedoms.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
1256. What To Do With the UK? EU perspectives on Brexit
- Author:
- Charles Wyplosz
- Publication Date:
- 10-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Slovak Foreign Policy Association
- Abstract:
- The negotiating table is almost set for Britain’s exit from the European Union. In recent months, the Brexit debate has been primarily focused on the UK’s future position within Europe. Little has been discussed about how this decision will affect the remaining 27 member states. With a preliminary date of March 2017 chosen to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, now is the time to begin formally discussing the challenges that both the UK and EU will face during negotiations.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Europe
1257. Slovakia: (Re)Discovering of the international crisis management
- Author:
- Samuel Goda
- Publication Date:
- 04-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Slovak Foreign Policy Association
- Abstract:
- The security environment in “wider Europe” has changed significantly in recent years. Depending on one’s preferences, a wide range of milestones may be named – the airstrikes in Yugoslavia, the 9/11 attacks, the Madrid attacks, the war in Afghanistan, the invasion of Iraq, etc. In this study, however, the main issue we are addressing is the Ukrainian crisis (or war), Ukraine being our direct neighbor and a country of special interest – and this being the issue, according to a wide range of experts, that has had the most impact on the region’s security in decades.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Europe
1258. Libya Extremism and the Consequences of Collapse
- Author:
- The Soufan Group
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Soufan Group
- Abstract:
- Following the failure to form a unity government in Libya, the country will continue to face monumental hurdles to stabilization. • Existing divides between the East and West of Libya have been exacerbated by the security situation in the country. • The absence of rule of law and the high levels of violence in Libya—when combined with the proliferation of weapons—have allowed violent extremist groups such as the Islamic State and al-Qaeda to thrive.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Libya
1259. Does Citizenship Abate Class? Evidence and Reflections from Bangalore, India
- Author:
- Ebony Bertorelli, Patrick Heller, Siddharth Swaminathan, and Ashutosh Varshney
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
- Abstract:
- Drawing on data from a large household survey in Bangalore, this paper explores the quality of urban citizenship. Addressing theories that have tied the depth of democracy to the quality and effectiveness of citizenship, we develop an index of citizenship that includes various measures and then explore the extent to which citizenship determines the quality of services and infrastructure that households enjoy. Our findings show that citizenship and access to services in Bangalore are highly differentiated, that much of what drives these differences has to do with class, but we also find clear evidence that the urban poor are somewhat better in terms of the services they receive that they would be without citizenship. Citizenship, in other words, abates the effects of class.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
1260. When Courts Plan: The Greening of Delhi's Autorickshaws
- Author:
- Atul Pokharel
- Publication Date:
- 08-2016
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
- Abstract:
- Implementing municipal-scale policies is challenging in megacities. Despite this, between 1986 and 2006, Delhi converted its entire public transportation network of nearly 100,000 vehicles to use Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) instead of diesel and petrol. The use of CNG is widely assumed to have been ordered by the Supreme Court of India. But this overlooks how autorickshaws, privately owned and making up three-fourths of these vehicles, came to use CNG even though the court did not order it. Using two new sources of data, I show that the conversion of autos was jointly led by the largest private manufacturer together with the city government. The court facilitated coordination between several other actors, allowed them to experiment, and monitored progress over two decades leading up to the auto conversion. After capping the total number of autos, it ultimately refrained from passing judgment on two consequential aspects of greening them: vehicle ownership and fuel type. As a result, auto owners were buffeted by decades of incremental policy experimentation. Eventually, these experiments reconfigured auto ownership as some sold their operating permits to become renters, while state institutions remained indifferent to this shadow conversion underfoot.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
1261. Cabal City: Regime Theory and Indian Urbanization
- Author:
- Patrick Heller
- Publication Date:
- 07-2016
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
- Abstract:
- This paper explores the interaction of politics and business through the lens of the city. The power of business to influence politics in India would lead to a prediction that Indian cities are, in the classic sense of the term, growth machines. Yet we argue in this paper that fundamental problems of governance in India’s megacities have precluded the possibility of business coalitions exerting cohesive influence over investments policies in cities. The result has been the predominance of what we call cabals, that are expert at extracting rents from the city, but in the end fail to promote development in the sense of an institutionalized process of economic and social improvement in the city. Where there has been high growth, it has not been accompanied by the expansion of the cities’ infrastructure and overall coordination capacities. In the end, what is good for business and politicians had neither been good for capitalism in terms of dynamic accumulation nor for inclusion of middle and poorer social groups.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
1262. Flexible Governance and Perceived Fairness: Evidence from Farmer Managed Irrigation Systems in Nepal
- Author:
- Atul Pokharel
- Publication Date:
- 07-2016
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
- Abstract:
- What is the relationship between flexible governance and fairness? I examine this question in a new longitudinal dataset of irrigation canals in Nepal that were celebrated as paradigmatic cases of successful local governance. The prevalent explanation is that users have avoided knotty collective action problems by committing to rules and mutually monitoring compliance. These rules are understood to have been iteratively crafted over decades so as to render cooperative behavior reasonable. Embedded in a local context that is assumed to be common knowledge for users but ultimately impenetrable to outsiders, it is critical that locals discursively devise the rules and uniformly enforce them. Revisiting these cases three decades later, I first illustrate a distinction between two aspects of flexible governance: flexible rules and flexible enforcement. The former refers to changing rules over time, the latter to variations in enforcement. I document the predicted flexibility of the rules in these cases. I then show that a significant number of successes are associated with flexible enforcement. Whether flexible enforcement helps or hinders sustained collective action appears to depend on how fair users perceive the rules to be. Thus, discretionary enforcement may be related to the possibilities and limits of local governance in achieving fair outcomes, and not just for merely solving collective action problems.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
1263. Lessons in Arctic Operations: The Canadian Army Experience, 1945-1956
- Author:
- P. Whitney Lackenbauer and Peter Kikkert
- Publication Date:
- 09-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- The documents in this volume provide insights into the Canadian Army’s attempts to secure a better knowledge of the characteristics of Northern operations during the Second World War and early Cold War. An extensive series of Subarctic and Arctic training exercises yielded valuable “lessons learned” that informed the planning, training, and equipping of the Army for Northern missions. The challenges encountered in these operations, the questions raised, and the lessons observed remain remarkably consistent with those experienced during Arctic deployments over the last decade.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Canada
1264. Canada’s Northern Strategy under the Harper Conservatives: Key Speeches and Documents on Sovereignty, Security, and Governance, 2005-15
- Author:
- P. Whitney Lackenbauer and Ryan Dean
- Publication Date:
- 09-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- The speeches and media releases collected in this volume help to reveal the narratives on Arctic sovereignty, security, circumpolar affairs, and governance that the Harper Government sought to construct during its near-decade in office. While the government touted its own achievements in regular updates on its Northern Strategy, other commentators have been more critical, suggesting that either the government’s priorities were misplaced or it promised more than it delivered. This volume is intended to preserve these primary resources for researchers to facilitate ongoing debate and discussion
- Topic:
- International Affairs and Domestic Politics
- Political Geography:
- Canada
1265. Annual Report 2016
- Author:
- Mesut Özcan
- Publication Date:
- 09-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic Research (CSR)
- Abstract:
- As the Acting Chairman of the Center for Strategic Research (SAM), I am pleased to present our 2016 Annual Report. SAM’s primary objective is to conduct research on foreign policy and related issues, develop alternative perspectives, provide new insights and make policy recommendations. SAM has risen to a significant peak in our Ministry’s policy making process, and has created more influence than what was ever expected. Each year, it continues to move beyond its accomplishments of the previous year. On this occasion, I would like to express my heartfelt thanks to H.E. Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkey, for his valuable support and to the SAM staff for their contributions.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Turkey
1266. Cross-Functional Teams in Defense Reform: Help or Hindrance?
- Author:
- Christopher J. Lamb
- Publication Date:
- 05-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
- Abstract:
- There is strong bipartisan support for Section 941 of the Senate’s version of the National Defense Authorization Act for 2017, which requires the Pentagon to use cross-functional teams (CFTs). CFTs are a popular organizational construct with a reputation for delivering better and faster solutions for complex and rapidly evolving problems. The Department of Defense reaction to the bill has been strongly negative. Senior officials argue that Section 941 would “undermine the authority of the Secretary, add bureaucracy, and confuse lines of responsibility.” The Senate’s and Pentagon’s diametrically opposed positions on the value of CFTs can be partially reconciled with a better understanding of what CFTs are, how cross-functional groups have performed to date in the Pentagon, and their prerequisites for success. This paper argues there is strong evidence that CFTs could provide impressive benefits if the teams were conceived and employed correctly.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
1267. U.S. Policy in a Changing World
- Author:
- A. Kortunov and A. Frolov
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The U.S. foreign policy today has fallen on hard times. The world is entering a new era with a lot of totally new challenges, including untraditional challenges that the U.S. leadership is faced with. In some instances, Washington manages to fit into ongoing processes while in others, the situation starts to follow a different scenario and then this policy, which is based on a number of important and fundamental principles, begins to founder. Regarding the U.S. policy, perhaps it makes sense to start off not with it but with more fundamental concepts. I believe that there is a problem related to the uneven development of states. Obviously, this greatly affects the foreign policy of the United States that is entering into a new situation in the world, which is related to the emergence of new points of growth and influence, and the erosion of the previously established centers and structures with the downgrading of the role of traditional centers of force in global affairs.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Globalization, Politics, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
1268. The Untapped Potential of English Teaching
- Author:
- Megan Metrick
- Publication Date:
- 04-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council of American Ambassadors
- Abstract:
- Public Diplomacy (PD) at the State Department shows signs of going through a serious rethink. The push to be more strategic in our programming has taken off. Public Diplomacy officers can rattle off the Integrated Country Strategy goals with the best of them. More rigorous program planning and evaluation may be coming to a cloud platform near you soon (see the excellent article by my colleague Carissa Gonzalez in the previous issue of The Ambassadors Review). Social media regulations are in the Foreign Affairs Manual. EducationUSA and American Spaces have slick branding, unified looks, and centralized websites. These new strategies and tools are great, and in many cases, long overdue. However, as we redesign Public Diplomacy for the 21st century (albeit we are already well into that century), we should go back to the basics for a moment, and remember why we’re here.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Education, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
1269. Two Sides of the Foreign Assistance Coin
- Author:
- Hari Sastry
- Publication Date:
- 04-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Ambassadors Review
- Abstract:
- The world we live in today is more interconnected than ever before—though we may not share soil or language, religion or currency, we are neighbors in this global community. Together, we face challenges that are more complex than any we have ever encountered: violent extremism that threatens our core values of democracy, equality, and freedom; conflicts and natural disasters that devastate and displace; diseases that unroll in waves across entire regions.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Globalization, Religion, International Affairs, and Freedom of Expression
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
1270. Expert Opinion on AMISOM Contributing Countries Continued Provision of Troops
- Author:
- David Mastro
- Publication Date:
- 10-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- The international community is beginning to grapple with several questions regarding whether one or more countries contributing troops to the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)—which has been key to successes against al-Shabaab in recent years—will prematurely withdraw their troops from the mission due a confluence of regional and international factors.1 What is the likelihood that one or more troops contributing countries (TCCs)—Burundi, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda—withdraw from AMISOM? How would AMISOM’s operational effectiveness be impacted if a TCC left the mission? Would another country or countries be willing and able to fill the void created by a TCC’s withdrawal? This paper attempts to provide answers to these questions to inform policy discussions related to the long-term commitment of the TCCs to the mission. It also seeks to provide some actions or policies that the international community could undertake to reduce the likelihood that a TCC leaves AMISOM early.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Affairs, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- Somalia
1271. After The Jarabulus Offensive: How Far Will Turkey Shift Its Syria Policy?
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay
- Publication Date:
- 09-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The July 15 attempted coup, which exposed rifts within the Turkish military, coupled with the August 9 meeting between Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian president Vladimir Putin, and the Turkish incursion into Syria on August 24, appear to signal a change in trajectory for Turkey’s Syria policy. Since Erdogan’s ouster of Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu in May 2015, Turkey has already implemented some significant foreign policy shifts, including normalization with Israel and a desire to mend ties with Russia.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Civil War, Peace Studies, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, and Syria
1272. A Bond Worth Strengthening Understanding the Mexican Military and U.S.-Mexican Military Cooperation
- Author:
- Iñigo Guevara Moyano
- Publication Date:
- 10-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Wilson Center
- Abstract:
- Over the past decade, the Mexican military has been crafted into hardened and more professional military, skilled in fourth generation warfare, operating across the spectrum of conflict from surgical small-unit Special Forces missions to division-level stability operations in areas comparable in size to Belgium. As new—state and non-state—threats loom on the horizon, the U.S. and Mexican militaries will need to rely on deepening their connection and increasing bilateral trust to build a stronger and interdependent defense relationship. The increase in dialogue and cooperation builds trust and promotes mutual understanding between Mexico and the United States, crafting deep ties between both militaries during a time when the radicalization of political ideas threatens to transcend electoral campaign rhetoric and affect the economic and social fields of North America. For two neighbors that share an annual trade worth USD 534 billion along a 2,000-mile border, understanding each other’s strengths and weaknesses should be a priority. This paper is meant to provide a deeper understanding of the Mexican military and its contribution to the defense and security of North America. It does so by analyzing the evolution of Mexico’s armed forces, and the past and present cooperation between the Mexican and the U.S. militaries.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, International Affairs, Armed Forces, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- America and Mexico
1273. Back from the Brink Toward Restraint and Dialogue between Russia and the West
- Author:
- William Perry and Deep Cuts Commission
- Publication Date:
- 06-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- This report contains a number of bold proposals on how to better manage relations between the West and Russia in order to avert worst-case scenarios. Specifying that cooperative solutions are pos- sible without giving up on the fundamental interests of each side, it warrants a close look by officials in both Moscow and Washington.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Cooperation, International Security, International Affairs, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, America, Europe, and Global Focus
1274. Survival of the fittest: Trump’s not-so-simple nationalism
- Author:
- Vibeke Schou Tjalve
- Publication Date:
- 11-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Despite the general impression that the US president-elect Donald Trump has given us very little clue to predict his foreign policy doctrine, a guiding framework behind his scattered statements does exist. In this DIIS Policy Brief, Senior Researcher Vibeke Schou Tjalve takes a closer look at the surprisingly consistent philosophy of power and interest that Trump has aired during the past two decades. Trump is labelled a ‘nationalist’ and an ‘isolationist’. These are understandable labels, and yet: Trump is not your classical cultural-conservative nostalgic with deep veneration for old alliances or shared norms. His American nationalism does not linger on the memories of the New World European roots. Rather, it is founded on a deeply Darwinist conception of the world as a cutthroat competition, in which raw strength - not cultural characteristics – matters. As such, Trump will have no sentimentality for NATO or Europe, and he will view the world through largely value-neutral eyes. This leaves Europe with a defining set of questions, and to influence a Trump presidency, we should understand and appreciate this not-so-simple nationalism, Tjalve writes.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Nationalism, International Affairs, and Political Theory
- Political Geography:
- America and Global Focus
1275. The United States and Estonia: Partners for Peace and Prosperity
- Author:
- Jr. James D. Melville
- Publication Date:
- 09-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Council of American Ambassadors
- Abstract:
- In August, Estonia marked 25 years since the end of Soviet occupation and the restoration of its national institutions. Estonia’s rapid reintegration with the West as a sovereign, stable, and prosperous democracy is nothing short of remarkable, and it serves as an inspiration to other nations. Theirs is a journey made possible through disciplined leadership, solid regulatory frameworks, strategic decisions, and a steadfast commitment to being a contributing member of European, transatlantic, and international alliances. Our partnership is one of allies with synchronized goals and values, a rare combination that gives both countries leverage to do even more.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- America and Estonia
1276. “Caught Trying” in Denmark: The Case for Taking Risks in Using Non-Traditional US Diplomacy to Meet Global Challenges
- Author:
- Rufus Gifford
- Publication Date:
- 09-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Council of American Ambassadors
- Abstract:
- Denmark is one of America’s closest partners. Near the pinnacle of global indices of wealth, well-being, and democracy, Denmark is uniquely positioned to work alongside the United States in support of our shared approaches to addressing 21st century global challenges. It is the only Nordic country that is a member of all three vital multinational organizations: NATO, EU, and Arctic Council. Denmark very much reinforces President Obama’s now-famous foreign policy quote in the April 2016 edition of The Atlantic: “If only everyone could be like the Scandinavians, this would all be easy.”
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- America and Denmark
1277. The United States and Canada: The Strength of Partnership
- Author:
- Bruce A. Heyman
- Publication Date:
- 09-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Council of American Ambassadors
- Abstract:
- Canada is arguably our most important bilateral relationship. Our exceptional and unique ties are rooted in a common border that stretches for 5,525 miles, over 200 years of closely interwoven history and culture, our largest economic relationship worldwide, our similar values. We have amazingly intertwined supply chains; we work closely as NATO allies; and partner extensively to address global challenges. As President Obama put it during Prime Minister Trudeau’s visit to Washington in March 2016, “Of course, no two nations agree on everything...But in terms of our interests, our values, how we approach the world, few countries match up the way the United States and Canada do.”
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, International Political Economy, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- America and Canada
1278. Innovation: Key to a 21st Century Alliance
- Author:
- John Berry
- Publication Date:
- 09-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Council of American Ambassadors
- Abstract:
- Over 200 years ago, one of our founding fathers Benjamin Franklin urged us to innovate, with the warning: “When you’re finished changing, you’re finished.” One of our greatest presidents, Abraham Lincoln, was not only a talented statesman, he was an inventor and tinkerer extraordinaire. Innovation lies at the very heart of what it means to be an American. From the beginning, our country was a grand experiment. We believed then—and now—that freedom plus hard work equals progress. Innovation, invention, and creativity help turn progress into success.
- Topic:
- Development, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- America and Global Focus
1279. Celebrating Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s Good Neighbor Policy
- Author:
- William J. vanden Heuvel
- Publication Date:
- 09-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Council of American Ambassadors
- Abstract:
- On January 6, 1941, President Roosevelt came before the Congress and gave us a vision of the world that would be worthy of our civilization. He spoke—simply, eloquently—of a nation dedicated to the Four Freedom everywhere in the world
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- America
1280. NEIGHBOURING AN UNPREDICTABLE RUSSIA Implications for Finland
- Author:
- Toivo Martikainen, Katri Pynnöniemi, and Sinikukka Saari
- Publication Date:
- 11-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- Russia has perceived itself as a great power and has sought international acknowledgement of its status for years. The fact that Moscow regards the post-Soviet space as its sphere of ‘privileged interests’ and the sovereignty of the other post-Soviet states as subordinate to Russia’s national interests is nothing new. Likewise, Russia has persistently objected to the dominant role played by the US in world politics, and the enlargement of NATO. It has attempted to influence the security policy orientation and political choices made by post-Soviet states, and other states neighbouring Russia, such as Finland. These goals are well-established and are likely to remain fundamentally un- changed for years to come.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Affairs, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Finland
1281. State-led Nationalism In Today's Russia: Uniting The People with Conservative Values?
- Author:
- Veera Laine
- Publication Date:
- 10-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- In recent years, the Russian state has been described as becoming “more nationalistic”. In the time period encompassing the Sochi Winter Olympics, the occupation of Crimea, the war in Donbas that continues to this day, air strikes in Syria, and the state seeking new legitimacy during the deepening economic crisis in Russia, many notions have been connected to growing nationalism. But nationalism as such is an ambiguous concept. Moreover, there is hardly any state in today’s global system that could be said to be totally devoid of nationalistic argumentation. Therefore, the way in which the Russian state leadership is using nationalism in order to achieve its political goals requires a critical empirical study. Authoritarianism, conservatism, and even imperialism have been discussed as “new” features of the Russian state. But the change in the self-understanding of the Russian state is not a result of one factor, such as strengthening national pride, but rather a wide range of ideas that have been reshuffled in relation to each other. This Working Paper focuses on the state-led nationalism in this changing ideational environment between the years 2012 and 2016, and how it has been received by the people.
- Topic:
- Nationalism, International Affairs, Power Politics, Authoritarianism, and Neoimperialism
- Political Geography:
- Russia
1282. The Role of the European Parliament: Between External and Internal Challenges
- Author:
- Tuomas Iso-Markku
- Publication Date:
- 11-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- As a result of the Spitzenkandidaten process, the relationship between the European Parliament and the European Commission – and particularly their leaders – has strengthened. This inter- institutional connection also has a party-political dimension, being intrinsically linked to the emergence of a ‘grand coalition’ between the two biggest groups of the EP. However, in an EU beset by crises, the political agenda is firmly under the control of the member states and the European Council, which makes it difficult for the EP to take advantage of its closer relationship with the Commission, as the latter acts very cautiously.
- Topic:
- International Organization, International Affairs, Democracy, and Europe Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe
1283. Russia's 2016 Duma Elections: Ambiguous triumph and new challenges for the regime
- Author:
- Kirill Rogov
- Publication Date:
- 11-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- The recent 2016 Duma elections were planned by the Kremlin to attest to the fact that the period of troubled political development – which began during the previous 2011 Duma elections – is over. Further, the elections served to test Putin’s consolidated authoritarianism on the eve of the forthcoming presidential elections in 2018. While successful in terms of preserving full control over the new Duma, the election results nevertheless demonstrated that the patriotic enthusiasm evoked by the annexation of Crimea has largely been exhausted. The pressure on the opposition, new electoral rules and reliance on regions with so-called “administrative voting” secured a victory for the party of power, but in urban regions the turnout was very low and voting for the Kremlin’s party did not differ much from 2011 patterns. Although the direct effect of the economic crisis on people’s political attitudes is still moderate, the continued long-term stagnation in the Russian economy that started even before the fall in energy prices remains the major challenge for regime stability. Ambiguous election results force the Kremlin to seek new instruments of political consolidation. The Kremlin’s most probable strategy may be to combine toughening authoritarian institutions with maintaining high tension in the international arena in order to prolong the ‘rally around the flag’ effect domestically, by attempting or promising “authoritarian modernization” to gain support in urban regions. As the presidential election date approaches, both Putin’s foreign and economic policies could become even riskier than they have been to date.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Political Economy, International Affairs, Elections, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia
1284. The US in the Asia-Pacific: Continuing rebalance towards a region in flux
- Author:
- Bart Gaens
- Publication Date:
- 11-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- The evolving Asia-Pacific region is marked by increased balancing strategies, the forging of flexible partnerships between countries, and economic interconnectedness. In order to retain a central role and achieve a new equilibrium, the US will need to adapt to these changes.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, International Affairs, Geopolitics, and Political stability
- Political Geography:
- America and Asia-Pacific
1285. Election Hacking in Democracies: The example of the U.S. 2016 elections
- Author:
- Mika Aaltola and Mariita Mattiisen
- Publication Date:
- 10-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- The US, as a highly digitalized state, depends on different cyber platforms for election campaigning, political discussions, forming popular opinions, and – in some cases – the voting process itself. Geopolitically motivated election hacking can aim to influence the direction of foreign policy debates, to promote/demote candidate(s), and to instigate disruptions, suspicions, and distrust towards the election process or the democratic system. The strategic aim to lower democratic appeal and increase the attraction of autocratic "stability”. A state sponsor of hacking can demonstrate that it has sophisticated cyber capabilities, thereby promoting its own major power standing. Even if its efforts raise suspicions, it gains visibility, as its efforts are discussed in the media and it manages to insert itself into the election discussions. The state sponsor can subtly promote the images of its own type of political system as being comparatively more resilient and stable than the US democratic system. The relative success of the election hacking targeting the US might motivate scaling up the intensity and scope of similar operations in future democratic elections. At a minimum, the election hacking incidents point to a scenario that has to be taken seriously.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Corruption, International Affairs, Elections, and Democracy
- Political Geography:
- America
1286. Turkey's political direction: Authoritarianism, liberal democracy or dissolution?
- Author:
- Toni Alaranta
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- After the re-run of the parliamentary election on 1 November 2015, it is certain that Turkey will again be ruled by the Justice and Development Party’s (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi, AKP) one-party government. Based on this premise, this study provides a future-oriented analysis in the form of three scenarios: 1) an authoritarian Islamist state; 2) a consolidated liberal democracy; and 3) the dissolution of the Turkish state. The study also identifies three major drivers: a) the AKP and the Islamic-conservative state project; b) regional instability; and c) the Kurdish question. Regarding scenario one, there are factors and processes present that decidedly increase the possibility of an authoritarian Islamist state in Turkey. On the other hand, the republican tradition of parliamentary democracy has at the same time proved to be remarkably resilient, suggesting that the course of events depicted in the positive scenario two still have a significant chance in the long run. Scenario three, the dissolution of the Turkish state, would create enormous instability in the EU’s immediate neighbourhood and exponentially increase unpredictable tendencies and conflicts. The internal and external forces that could produce such a dramatic outcome are still rather weak, but they do exist in an embryonic form. Thus, the republican modernization project attaching Turkey to the Western legacy of secular humanism should not be underestimated and may well prevail in the end. For the time being, however, it seems to be on the losing side as the political process is consolidating the Islamic-conservative version of Turkish nationalism. At the present moment this current is pointing to a concentration of power and a non-pluralist authoritarian regime whereby national identity is increasingly constructed in a form that conceptualizes political liberalism as an existential threat.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Affairs, and Political stability
- Political Geography:
- Turkey
1287. Possible Benefits of American Parameters for the Two-State Solution.
- Author:
- Mitvim
- Publication Date:
- 10-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- As US President Barack Obama’s term in office is nearing its end, he may choose to present parameters for an Israeli-Palestinian final-status agreement before departing from the White House, similar to what President Bill Clinton did in 2000. The window of opportunity for this is between the US presidential elections (November 8, 2016) to the inauguration of the next president (January 20, 2017).
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, International Affairs, and Fragile States
- Political Geography:
- America, Israel, and Palestine
1288. Towards an Inclusive Israeli Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Mitvim
- Publication Date:
- 11-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- Due to developments in the international diplomatic arena, as well as the information revolution, foreign relations are no longer the sole purview of government officials. Increasingly, civil society organizations, businesses and private entrepreneurs are playing a pivotal role in international relations among states. Nevertheless, Israeli foreign policy is still considered the exclusive domain of experts. Indeed, significant sub-groups of the population – women, Palestinian citizens of Israel, ultra-Orthodox Jews, new immigrants and residents of the country's geographic periphery – do not participate meaningfully in the Israeli public debate concerning foreign affairs, let alone the corresponding decision- making process.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Israel
1289. Lessons from Cyprus for Israel-Palestine: Can Negotiations Still Work?
- Author:
- Dahlia Scheindlin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- Like the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the Cyprus conflict has been a protracted, unresolved conflict for roughly five decades. The two conflicts share ethno-nationalist and territorial dimensions; tension between a sovereign state and a sub-state entity, and a hostile military presence; decades of failed negotiations, with both sides showing ambiguous commitment to the intended political framework for resolution (two states, or a federated state, respectively); and high involvement of the international community. This paper maps points of comparison related to conflict resolution efforts in both cases, including references to the civil society, public, political leadership, and negotiation processes.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Cooperation, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Israel and Palestine
1290. Who Will Inherit Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas?
- Author:
- Ido Zelkovitz
- Publication Date:
- 09-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- The Fatah movement and the PLO (Palestinian Liberation Movement) leadership are experiencing a deep internal crisis. In 1969, Fatah leader Yassir Arafat took control of PLO institutions and imposed a political containment policy, combined with a heavy hand, against his opponents. Since then, the Palestinian national liberation movement has been characterized by a highly centralized authority structure. Mahmoud Abbas, an absolute ruler, inherited three ‘hats’ from his predecessor Arafat: In addition to serving as Chairman of the PLO’s Executive Committee and President of the Palestinian Authority, Abbas also serves as Chairman of the Fatah movement. Fatah is the ruling party in PLO institutions, and constitutes the political backbone of the Palestinian Authority. The Palestinian justification for the establishment of such centralized rule was the complexity of the negotiations that were held with Israel in the 1990s.
- Topic:
- Peace Studies, International Affairs, Fragile States, and Political stability
- Political Geography:
- Palestine
1291. Cooperation between Israel and the Arab world
- Author:
- Mitvim
- Publication Date:
- 09-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- Israelis see high importance in advancing cooperation with Egypt, while cooperation with the Palestinian Authority is of low priority. This is the main finding from a public opinion poll conducted for the Mitvim Institute on July 13, 2016 by the Rafi Smith Institute and in cooperation with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung. It sampled 500 men and women, as a representative sample of the Israeli adult population (aged 18 and older, from both the Jewish and Arab sectors).
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Cooperation, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Israel
1292. Committed: U.S. Foreign Policy in Asia and Completing the Rebalance
- Author:
- Shihoko Goto, Robert Daly, Michael Kugelman, Sandy Pho, Meg Lundsager, Robert Litwak, Robert Person, and James Person
- Publication Date:
- 09-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Wilson Center
- Abstract:
- The United States is a Pacific power. It may be so reluctantly, but its continued military, political, and economic engagement has been key to Asia’s stability and prosperity. Ensuring that the Asia-Pacific remains robust politically and economically will be in the United States’ own interest, and will be a key foreign policy challenge for any administration. The realities on the ground in Asia, though, are rapidly changing. The region has become increasingly divided, and rivalries are manifesting themselves in territorial disputes, competition for resources, as well as a growing arms race. Having overtaken Japan as the world’s second-largest economy, China has sought to become as much a political and military power as much as an economic one. Beijing’s vision for the region puts China at its center, which has led to rifts in relations among Asian nations, not to mention Sino-U.S. relations. Continued stability in the region cannot be taken for granted. Washington must continue to be committed to Asia, not least amid growing concerns about North Korea’s nuclear aspirations, maritime disputes, and alternative visions for economic development.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, International Political Economy, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- America and Asia
1293. Global Energy Debates and the Eastern Mediterranean
- Author:
- Ayla Gürel Moran, Harry G. Tzimitras, and Hubert Faustmann
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- On 16 November 2016 the PRIO Cyprus Centre (PCC), the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung Cyprus (FES) and the Atlantic Council (AC) co-hosted a one-day conference entitled ‘Global Energy Debates and the East Mediterranean’. The conference, held in the UN Buffer Zone in Nicosia, was organised with a view to introducing the Cypriot public to the increasingly complex global energy terrain. Thus, the main focus of the deliberations was not the Eastern Mediterranean, but rather the broader energy picture surrounding the region. The international experts who attended the conference presented topics that concern some of the more salient broader debates, such as the link between energy and global warming as well as the energy relations of the European Union, which constitutes the largest potential market in the neighbourhood for the hydrocarbons of the Eastern Mediterranean. The latter included examination of three important cases to Europe’s east: Russia, Iran, and Turkey. East Mediterranean energy develop- ments and regional cooperation prospects were also discussed by a panel of experts from Cyprus, Egypt and Israel. This edited volume comprises contributions submitted by speakers based on their talks delivered at the conference.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Environment, International Organization, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
1294. FROM EU STRATEGY TO DEFENCE SERIES EU Strategy and European Defence What Level of Ambition?
- Author:
- Luis Simon
- Publication Date:
- 11-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- The global proliferation of precision-strike systems and the concomitant emergence of anti-access and area denial (A2/AD) capabilities challenges the foundations of Western global military-technological supremacy. What does this mean for current EU debates on military ambition? This policy brief argues that the assumption of the freedom of (military) access and movement, which has guided European strategic thinking since the end of the Cold War, is no longer valid. Europeans should get to grips with the new military-strategic paradigm and translate this into an updated ambition level and related capabilities.
- Topic:
- International Affairs, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Europe and European Union
1295. European defence core groups
- Author:
- Margriet Drent, Anne Bakker, and Dick Zandee
- Publication Date:
- 11-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- The why, what & how of permanent structured cooperation The deteriorating security situation around Europe and the burgeoning messages from Washington that Europe has to take more responsibility for its own security call for a step change in European defence cooperation. So far, progress has been too slow. This policy brief argues that permanent structured cooperation (Pesco) offers the option to take a more ambitious and more productive route by member states willing to move forward more quickly, set more demanding objectives and commit themselves more strongly. This would end the well-known ‘voluntary basis’ which has often been used as an excuse for doing little or nothing at all.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Terrorism, International Security, International Affairs, and Political and institutional effectiveness
- Political Geography:
- America and European Union
1296. Turkey’s coup attempt
- Author:
- Lauren Baker
- Publication Date:
- 08-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
- Abstract:
- Late in the evening of July 15, a faction of the Turkish army blocked key bridges into Istanbul and occupied several locations throughout the country. The attempted coup failed before morning, but its consequences will reverberate far into the future. The government’s response was immediate and harsh: mass arrests and a purge of not only the military, but also civil servants, judges, academics, and political opponents. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan condemned cleric Fethullah Gulen as the chief conspirator and demanded his extradition from self-imposed exile in the United States. Meanwhile, some opponents of Erdogan suggest that the government orchestrated the attempt as a “false flag” operation to consolidate power and crackdown on dissidents. Turkey is not new to coups, but looking at previous conflicts and the political science literature on coups can tell us why this failed attempt is unique and what its repercussions will be in Turkey and the broader Middle East. The pieces in POMEPS Briefing 30 offer insightful and timely analysis from top scholars of the region published in the Monkey Cage blog on the Washington Post.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Turkey
1297. Iran’s 2016 election
- Author:
- Lauren Baker
- Publication Date:
- 03-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
- Abstract:
- On February 26, 2016, Iran held elections for its Assembly of Experts, the body tasked with choosing the next supreme leader, and the Islamic Consultative Assembly (its parliament or majlis). As the first major round of voting since 2015’s historic Joint Plan of Comprehensive Action nuclear agreement, the world watched the results closely — and Iran’s leaders leveraged this international focus. While many reformist candidates were barred from running, and those who did were censored on state media, new forms of communication and social media aided existing organizing networks for a strong showing for the reformist candidates, most notably in Tehran. Coalitions between moderates and reformists potentially herald a new era of politics in the Islamic Republic, though it has yet to be seen if these changes will translate mean greater democracy. POMEPS Briefing 29 collects a series of reflections from top regional scholars that provide political context and important analysis of these watershed elections
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Iran
1298. The Gulf’s Escalating Sectarianism
- Author:
- Lauren Baker
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
- Abstract:
- On January 2, Saudi Arabia executed 47 men, including prominent cleric and political activist Nimr al-Nimr. This sparked immediate backlash, especially among domestic and global Shiite communities. Unfortunately, such rising sectarian tensions are nothing new in the region. Although the media is quick to highlight the Sunni-Shiite divide, it generally points to this split as the root cause of conflicts. How are we to get beyond this primordialist rhetoric and study the real impacts and causes of sectarianism in the region? POMEPS Briefing 28, “The Gulf’s Escalating Sectarianism,” collects 16 pieces previously published by the Project on Middle East Political Science and the Monkey Cage to provide a more nuanced look of this divisive trend. There is a growing body of scholarship that places sectarianism within the study of comparative politics and international relations, rather than treating sectarian identity as an unchanging, essentialist trait. Authors in this collection demonstrate how political elites use sectarian language to legitimize authoritarian rule, consolidate power, and rally against internal and external foes. What appear on the surface as entrenched confessional divides are often more about political and economic power than religion. Interested readers should also look at the 2013 POMEPS Studies 4 “The Politics of Sectarianism,” much of which remains relevant today. Analysis of individual Gulf states’ domestic and geopolitical maneuvering supports this theoretical framework. In Saudi Arabia, the new leadership is able to refocus attention away from its international and domestic failures by increasing pressure on Shiite dissidents and provoking its main regional rival, Iran. And, in the wake of the nuclear agreement, the increasing Iranian influence gives Saudi Arabia another reason to amp up the sectarian vehemence. Meanwhile in Yemen, the labels of sectarianism fail to tell the whole story, while in Iraq and Syria violence in the name of sectarian identity continues to polarize and entrench both sides. The Arab uprisings challenged the traditional regional powers, and Sunni leaders continue to vie for prominence in this new order. Meanwhile, the increasing use of information technology and social media reinforces existing communities, while further polarizing users and citizens.
- Topic:
- International Affairs and Sectarianism
- Political Geography:
- Gulf Nations
1299. ASEAN: In or Out? No Way…Not yet?
- Author:
- Tan Sri Munir Majid
- Publication Date:
- 10-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- While the close British decision to get out of the European Union was made in a referendum a while ago on 23 June, there is still the feeling in the UK: What have we done? Where do we go? How do we get there? Questions that should have been asked at the referendum, rather than after it. But there you are. When raw emotion and shallow argument reign, profound decisions are made without proper reflection or preparation. Since then the question has also been raised whether or not such a thing could occur in ASEAN, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. It won’t but then again it may. First of all, let’s be clear. It is not likely there will ever be such a surplus of democracy in ASEAN, whether among individual member states or as a group, that there could be an ‘In or Out’ referendum like the one which resulted in Brexit.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, International Affairs, Global Markets, and Global Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Southeast Asia
1300. The 2016 U.S. Presidential Campaign: Changing Discourse on Palestine
- Author:
- Phyllis Bennis
- Publication Date:
- 08-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Institute for Palestine Studies
- Abstract:
- This essay examines the discourse on Palestine/Israel in the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign, charting the impact of the Palestine rights movement on the domestic U.S. policy debate. Policy analyst, author, and long-time activist Phyllis Bennis notes the sea change within the Democratic Party evident in the unprecedented debate on the issue outside traditionally liberal Zionist boundaries. The final Democratic platform was as pro-Israel and anti-Palestinian as any in history, but the process of getting there was revolutionary in no small part, Bennis argues, due to the grassroots campaign of veteran U.S. senator Bernie Sanders. Bennis also discusses the Republican platform on Israel/Palestine, outlining the positions of the final three Republican contenders. Although she is clear about the current weakness of the broad antiwar movement in the United States, Bennis celebrates its Palestinian rights component and its focus on education and BDS to challenge the general public’s “ignorance” on Israel/ Palestine.
- Topic:
- International Security and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Israel and Palestine