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41. The risk of artificial intelligence: China edition

Author:
Filip Jirouš
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for the Opening and Development of Latin America (CADAL)
Abstract:
We should be worried about China’s AI capacities, not only because it enhances the powers of the Party-state, but also because it is exporting its population control technology and policy abroad.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Governance, Authoritarianism, Surveillance, Artificial Intelligence, Social Control, and Threat Assessment
Political Geography:
China and Asia

42. Regional Governance in Latin America: The More the Merrier?

Author:
Cristiane Lucena Carneiro
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:
Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:
Latin America regional governance is characterized by institutional complexity, largely the consequence of overlapping membership and mandates. The dominant view that overlap in Latin American regional organizations is problematic warrants further investigation. This article explores instances of overlap and parallelism within Latin American regional governance institutions to argue that growing complexity may be associated with normative progress. The article offers a portrait of overlapping regionalism based on data from the Regional Organizations Competencies Dataset (ROCO). The analysis confirms: institutional overlap has increased since 1945; it identifies the critical junctures that catapulted this process which is loosely associated with normative progress.
Topic:
Governance, Institutions, International Order, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Latin America

43. Simulations of the United Nations Veto Initiative: Process, Documents, and Prospects for Reform

Author:
Barbara Buckinx, TJ Eyerman, Charles Fraser, Anuj Krishnan, Elmir Mukhtarov, Alejandra Ramos, and Aly Rashid
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:
In April 2023, a year after its adoption, the Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination held the first-ever simulation of the United Nations (UN) veto initiative (UNGA RES/76/262). A subsequent simulation took place in March 2024. Passed amid criticism of UN Security Council inaction in response to the war in Ukraine, the veto initiative resolution aims to enhance the effectiveness, accountability, and transparency of the UN when it comes to matters of international peace and security. In the simulations, we tested scenarios for the implications of the veto initiative for the relationship between the UN Security Council and the UN General Assembly, and for the legitimacy of the UN as a whole.
Topic:
United Nations, Governance, Reform, UN Security Council, Simulation, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Global Focus

44. Tunisia: Public Opinion Report 2023

Author:
Arab Barometer
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Over the past dozen years, Tunisia has experienced dramatic political change. In 2011, the Jasmine Revolution led to the fall of its long-standing leader, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, ushering in a period of political instability. Following the rewriting of the constitution, free and fair elections were held but yielded only weak and largely ineffective governments. Although Tunisians enjoyed far greater political rights, economically the country regressed. A decade after the revolution, GDP per capita had declined significantly. Stories of corruption within government institutions remained common, yielding an increasingly frustrated public. Elections may give voters a say, but the outcomes of the system often appeared no better than in the days of Ben Ali. Citizens demanded radical change and looked for a leader who they believed could deliver actual results. In the 2019 presidential elections, many Tunisians turned to Kaïs Saïed as a solution. Saïed ran a populist campaign as a political outsider, calling for ending corruption and reforms to the electoral system. In the final round of voting, he captured nearly three-quarters of the vote for an overwhelming victory and strong electoral mandate. In July 2021, Saïed dismissed the prime minister and suspended parliament. Ruling by decree, many members of the judiciary were dismissed and many opposition politicians were arrested. Despite international criticism of these actions, results from the 2021 Arab Barometer demonstrated that most Tunisians were in favor of his actions.1 Just three months after the events of July 25, 2021, most Tunisians had confidence in the president, a majority were optimistic about their economic future for the first time in years, and most believed the government was finally tackling the problem of corruption. In short, many Tunisians had hope for their country’s future. In late 2023, Tunisians remained more optimistic than they had been before the election of Saïed, but Arab Barometer’s survey suggests that some are starting to lose hope. Promises of economic improvements have not been realized—just one-in-ten rate the economy as good, which is largely unchanged since 2013. Economic optimism has also fallen, dropping by 14 points since 2021. During this period, hunger has also increased dramatically, with twothirds of Tunisians saying they have gone without food at least once in the previous month. Moreover, the most common perception is that government mismanagement is the source of food insecurity. Views of most political institutions are relatively weak. Just over a third have confidence in the government while less than a quarter trust parliament. However, trust in President Saïed remains strong, with about three-quarters expressing confidence in their leader. Still, this level is a six point decrease from 2021.
Topic:
International Relations, Corruption, Environment, Migration, Governance, Public Opinion, Democracy, Economy, Institutions, Freedom, and Gender
Political Geography:
North Africa and Tunisia

45. Morocco: Public Opinion Report 2024

Author:
Arab Barometer
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Morocco has endured multiple crises in recent years including the Coronavirus pandemic and the earthquake that hit the country on September 9, 2023. The aftermath of these crises produces what could be described as two Moroccos: one for the wealthier and better educated, another for the poorer and less educated. Moroccans are clearly divided in their views of almost all issues based on their socioeconomic status (SES). Economic pressure persists, with only a third of Moroccans rating their economy positively. While optimism about the future of the economy has increased, it is largely driven by those with a higher socioeconomic status. Their less-fortunate compatriots are far less optimistic and more concerned about increasing inequality and food insecurity. Trust in the Moroccan government remains relatively low, but trust in parliament, regional government, judiciary, and civil society organizations has increased. Still, those struggling financially tend to be less trusting of all these bodies. Similarly, satisfaction with government performance on economic issues is low, especially among the poor. Moroccans are more satisfied with the provision of certain services, including security and infrastructure. On the other hand, education in particular is among the public services in which Moroccans exhibit the lowest levels of satisfaction. Corruption remains a major concern, with the government seen as not doing enough to combat it. This view is especially true among people with lower socioeconomic status. Wealthier and more educated Moroccans are more positive in their rating of the government’s work on combating corruption. However, many Moroccans are resorting to bribery or connection to navigate the bureaucracy. Economic conditions and corruption are causing Moroccans to consider emigrating. Youth and those facing financial pressure are far more likely to have a desire to leave their country, mainly in pursuit of better economic opportunities. Western countries remain the preferred destination for most of the potential migrants in Morocco, many of whom are willing to leave even if they did not have the required documents to do so. While support for democracy has fluctuated over the past few years, recent trends suggest an increase in support for democratic governance. Moroccans acknowledge that democratic systems have their shortcomings, yet they maintain a belief that democracy is preferable to other forms of governance and particularly support a multi-party parliamentary system.
Topic:
International Relations, Corruption, Environment, Gender Issues, Governance, Public Opinion, Democracy, Economy, Institutions, and Freedom
Political Geography:
North Africa and Morocco

46. Institutions and governance in Mozambique :A bird’s eye view based on existing databases

Author:
Ines A. Ferreira
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Using publicly available databases and drawing on a wide range of indicators, this paper reviews the institutional performance of Mozambique across seven broad categories: rule of law and judicial independence; voice and freedom of expression/association; political participation; accountability and transparency; political instability and violence, and external relations; state legitimacy and political leadership; and governance and state capacity. Overall, the selected indicators point to similar trends within each dimension and suggest limited progress during the last decades. Still, it is fundamental that these insights and the scores presented by the indicators are put into context, and that we understand the historical path of Mozambique, the internal and external factors at play, and the fact that it takes time for progress achieved to be reflected in this type of data.
Topic:
Governance, Leadership, Freedom of Expression, Rule of Law, Accountability, Institutions, Judiciary, Instability, and Political Participation
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

47. Bolivia: desk study on aid and democracy

Author:
Swetha Ramachandran
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This study is part of a series of ten country-focused desk studies on aid and democracy prepared under the project The state and statebuilding in the Global South. They are prepared under the guidance of Rachel M. Gisselquist as background to a broader research effort on aid, governance, and democracy promotion. The studies follow a common template and each draws on the research literature and selected cross-national sources to discuss regime type and timeline, findings from the literature on democracy/democratization, findings from the literature on aid and democracy/democratization, aid flows and sources, and specific aid examples. This study addresses the case of Bolivia, with focus on the post-Cold War period.
Topic:
Foreign Aid, Governance, Democracy, and Post-Cold War
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

48. The flaws in project-based carbon credit trading and the need for jurisdictional alternatives

Author:
Byron Swift, Ken Berlin, George Frampton, and Frank Willey
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
This issue brief highlights several significant, and at times unresolvable, problems with the project-based approach to carbon credit trading, the purpose of which is to reduce deforestation and sequester carbon. Beginning with first-hand observations of the principal author during his experience with forest conservation efforts in the tropics, the brief describes the challenges that arise when this crediting model is implemented in the field, particularly in rainforests and other remote areas of the world. The publication then assesses the three critical structural problems with project-based credit trading that lead to a fundamental lack of integrity in such programs: The intractable challenges of a project-based regulatory structure involving difficult-to-prove requirements of additionally and leakage prevention. The major transaction and intermediary costs that can amount to half of project funding. The credit duration that is far less than the life of the additional CO2 emissions that are consequently emitted. The analysis also explains how economic forces and incentives exacerbate these problems, particularly with programs that are carried out by commercial credit traders as opposed to nonprofit entities. Finally, this brief discusses better alternatives, such as jurisdictional programs administered by governments or Indigenous associations, that could more effectively reduce emissions and strengthen the social fabric of communities required to assure credit integrity, accurate measurement, and adequate co-benefits.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Markets, Governance, Carbon Emissions, Energy, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

49. Community Governance During COVID-19: Case Studies from Rural Areas of Bangladesh

Author:
Tanvir Shatil, Md. Rohmotul Islam, Huraera Jabeen, and Shahaduz Zaman
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Brac University
Abstract:
This working paper investigates community-driven initiatives in rural Bangladesh that emerged in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and persisted beyond the crisis. Focusing on the sustainability of these initiatives, the study explores the preconditions for collective actions, the development of community-level governance during the crisis, and the mobilization and longevity of these efforts. Supported by the Institute of Development Studies, the research aims to contribute valuable insights into community governance mechanisms in low-resource areas, offering potential solutions for designing resilient emergency interventions and addressing long-term development challenges.
Topic:
Development, Governance, Rural, COVID-19, and Community Initiatives
Political Geography:
Bangladesh and South Asia

50. A conceptual framework for the identification and governance of European public goods

Author:
Gregory Claeys and Armin Steinbach
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
The challenging current policy environment has raised the question of which policy decisions should be taken at national level and which at European Union level. As a general rule, the EU should be responsible only for the provision of European public goods (EPGs), while countries are better placed to provide national public goods. However, in practice, the situation is rarely that simple. We offer a framework for identification of EPGs with three main insights. First, a decision to provide a public good at national level, EU level or a combination of both depends on the degree of heterogeneity of preferences across countries and the efficiency case for EU-level provision. When preferences vary and the efficiency case is weak, goods should be provided at national level. When preferences are similar and the efficiency case is strong, goods should be provided at the EU level. When preferences differ but there is a strong efficiency case, a trade-off arises. Second, institutional and legal instruments exist already to manage this trade-off. These include: competence transfers, decision-making modalities, variable participation of countries, centralisation of delivery and funding, and compensating negatively affected countries to achieve greater alignment of preferences. Third, both the efficiency case for EPGs and the distribution of preferences over their provision may change over time. This could be because the world around the EU changes (for example, giving greater weight to an efficiency case, eg in areas related to defence) or because preferences change, for example, as result of a pandemic, or because a particular institutional or compensation practice convinces dissenters that they can be better off inside than outside a multi-country arrangement governing the provision of a public good. An implication is that the question ‘should public goods be provided at the national or European level?’ may be the wrong question to ask. The right question is how to find institutional arrangements for public-good provision, to maximise the benefits of public goods for EU members.
Topic:
Governance, European Union, Institutions, and Public Goods
Political Geography:
Europe

51. Outrage is not a policy: Coming to terms with Myanmar’s fragmented state

Author:
Morten B. Pedersen
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
This paper analyses the evolution of Myanmar’s civil war with a view to identifying optimal international policy responses. The sharp escalation of armed resistance since late 2023 holds out the tantalising prospect that the once seemingly invincible military regime could be defeated. Yet it remains an open question whether anti-junta forces will be able to carry the momentum from their recent victories in the forest-covered, mountainous borderlands across the open plains of central Myanmar to take the capital or other major cities. Even if resistance forces ultimately emerge victorious, the goal of building a genuine federal democracy will likely take years of highly complex and politically fraught negotiations. While the outcome of the civil war remains uncertain, new resistance groups have started building state-like structures and delivering public services in “liberated areas”, much like the older ethnic armed organisations have been doing since the 1960s. The longer Myanmar remains mired in warfare, the more crucial these plural governance systems will become to the welfare of millions of people, with lasting implications for the nature of state-building in the country. To more effectively support the Myanmar people, Western governments and likeminded actors will need to come to terms with the reality of an increasingly — and quite possibly, permanently — fragmented state. The paper thus calls for greater investments in “parallel state-building”, focused on strengthening the collective capabilities of a wide range of emerging political authorities and community-based organisations to carry out traditional state functions and serve vulnerable populations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Civil War, Development, and Governance
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Myanmar

52. Papua New Guinea’s fiscal decentralisation: A way forward

Author:
Maholopa Laveil
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Fiscal decentralisation in Papua New Guinea (PNG) has been a contentious topic for much of the country’s history. PNG has had several attempts at decentralising fiscal responsibilities, without much success in improving governance or service delivery. This is concerning, given sub-national funding has increased in the past decade. Governance has deteriorated over time as more responsibilities and funds are channelled to lower levels of government, including through unaccountable transfers to members of parliament (MPs) to use at their discretion. Government effectiveness and service delivery have suffered as a result, leading to poor development outcomes. This paper examines the weaknesses in the decentralisation process and how these mechanisms can be strengthened. Data collected from PNG government budget reports is analysed both for insights into the decentralisation of finances to provinces since 2007 and implications for service delivery and accountable governance. Where data are publicly available, the paper compares sub-national revenues and operational and capital spending across provinces, provides contrasts to global experiences, and relates the insights gained from field interviews of province and district administration staff in two provinces: East New Britain and New Ireland. The paper concludes with reflections on policy implications.
Topic:
Governance, Budget, Fiscal Policy, and Decentralization
Political Geography:
Australia/Pacific and Papua New Guinea

53. Knowledge State in the Era of Generative AI and the Future of the Korean Peninsula

Author:
Chaesung Chun
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Korea failed to transform into a fully modern sovereign state when modern international politics was being established. Traditionally, the Korean Peninsula was a single nation and state. However, as the Westphalian modern state systеm, originating in the West, was introduced in the form of imperialism, Korea failed to become a fully sovereign state, ultimately leading to its division. The causes of this division include external factors such as the competition among surrounding empires and Cold War rivalry, as well as internal factors like the fragmentation of state-building capabilities. However, the most significant reason was the civilizational gap, as Korea could not fully absorb and follow the new civilizational standards set by the West after the Industrial Revolution. The current world order is at a turning point following the unipolar era of the United States. While the Western Westphalian domain is maintained, the core element of the liberal international order is being significantly challenged by revisionist states like China and Russia, as well as countries from the Global South. It is uncertain whether global politics will form and maintain a single integrated sphere (권역) or divide into multiple regions experiencing fundamental conflicts. If modern international politics, standardized by Western civilization, were to fragment again, the division of the Korean Peninsula could deepen based on this regional separation. The recent intensification of strategic alliances between North Korea, China, and Russia illustrates this situation. A crucial phenomenon in this process is that the Fourth Industrial Revolution and emerging technologies are redefining the international political order. Unlike previous technological advancements, current technological progress is characterized by enabling technologies or meta-technologies that define the direction of technological development. Generative artificial intelligence, in particular, exemplifies the innovation of these foundational technologies. The role and function of generative artificial intelligence, which significantly impacts military, economic, social, cultural, and governmental governance capabilities, are just beginning. The future development of foundational technologies will have a critical impact on the international political order and the development of various diverging regions. Countries, companies, societies, and international organizations that quickly adapt to these technological changes will advance further, while those that do not will face deepening material and perceptual gaps. Considering the unification of the Korean Peninsula, the current stage of digital technology development in the North and South has maintained ethnic homogeneity and power balance to a level that can aim for unification. However, as new foundational technologies like generative artificial intelligence grow, the development paths, power balance, ethnic homogeneity, and differences in state forms and functions between South and North Korea will likely deepen. If unification is a goal based on a certain degree of homogeneous historical experience and similarity in state systеms and societies, the possibility of such similarity is decreasing. South Korea, as a liberal democratic state with the world's tenth-largest economy, a close alliance with the United States, and an innovative social and corporate atmosphere, has the capacity to rapidly absorb and disseminate artificial intelligence advancements throughout society. In this context, South Korea strives for economic development, international cooperation, and social and cultural innovation. In contrast, North Korea is an exceptionally poor country on a global scale, an unprecedentedly dictatorial state, and maintains its state through strong repression of society. In this context, it is difficult to expect societal innovation, and the acquisition and dissemination of new technologies are solely state-driven, with technological innovation also being state-led. In the increasingly polarized international technology supply chain, North Korea will find it challenging to find alternatives other than relying on China and Russia. North Korea is also striving to develop foundational technologies like artificial intelligence, but its direction will be very different from South Korea's. North Korea utilizes artificial intelligence for strong repression, control, and surveillance of society and aims to use open-source artificial intelligence for political intervention in South Korea and hacking and illegal manipulation in the international community. As the civilizational standards and technological gaps, political systеms, and socio-cultural perceptions between the South and North widen, what will be the future of the power balance and systеmic homogeneity between the two Koreas? Will South Korea's advanced national capabilities increase the possibility of unification with North Korea, or will artificial intelligence act as a larger element of conflict between the two Koreas? It is necessary to recognize and respond to these issues.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Governance, Artificial Intelligence, and Unification
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

54. Digital Platforms in Southeast Asia: Governance and Innovation

Author:
Faizal Bin Yahya
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as part of Southeast Asia has its digital economy and digital society objectives detailed in the ASEAN Digital Masterplan 2025 (ADM 2025) and has over the years built a regulatory framework. For example, in 2016, at the Asian Telecommunications and Information Technology Ministers Meeting, the Framework on Personal Data Protection was adopted to “strengthen the protection of personal data in ASEAN.” ASEAN has also changed how it deals with Internet governance, choosing to address it as a digital and digitization issue rather than just a matter involving info-communication technologies. To enable this, ASEAN expanded the scope of its ASEAN Telecommunications and Information Technology Ministers Meeting (TELMIN) to become the ASEAN Digital Ministers Meeting (ADGMIN) in October 2019. In 2021, as the digital economy continued to expand in the region, the ADGMIN adopted the ASEAN Data Management Framework to establish common frameworks and appropriate data protection measures. Going forward it has also considered developing regional guidelines beyond the scope of Internet governance, such as those for artificial intelligence (AI) governance and ethics. This briefing examines how ASEAN member states, despite their diversity and different levels of digital transformation, are working towards implementing policy measures to regulate digital platforms on a national and regional basis for social and economic stability. However, while improving governance for cybersecurity cooperation and content regulation, these policies should also enable progress on innovation and freedom of expression.
Topic:
Governance, Social Media, Freedom of Expression, Innovation, ASEAN, Disinformation, and Digital Platforms
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia

55. Marcos-Duterte Alliance: Of Broken Ties and Vows

Author:
Jan Carlo B. Punongbayan
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
In the Philippines, political alliances are often driven by personalistic ties and mutual benefits rather than ideological alignment. The alliance between President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. and Vice-President Sara Z. Duterte-Carpio exemplifies this, with both camps leveraging their regional strongholds and familial legacies to maintain political dominance. Heralded in 2022 as the “Uniteam,” the Marcos-Duterte tandem epitomized the strategic coalition-building often necessary in a fragmented political environment characterized by strong regional identities and political dynasties. This coalition can be analyzed through the lens of maximizing electoral prospects and consolidating power. The Marcos-Duterte alliance was a very strategic merger of the North (Ilocos Region) and the South (Davao Region), aimed at securing a broad electoral mandate. The unusual strength of their tandem in 2022 stands now in stark contrast with the recent and increasing tensions between the Marcos and Duterte camps. Not only does this breakdown present an important case study in the fragility of political alliances, but also, more importantly, it will have significant implications for governance and economic stability in the Philippines.
Topic:
Governance, Domestic Politics, Ideology, Economic Stability, and Coalition
Political Geography:
Philippines and Asia-Pacific

56. Climate Change in China’s Governance: Agenda, Agents, and International Collaboration

Author:
Guoguang Wu
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
China is the world's leading emitter and a key player in the international community's fight against climate change, but its climate action remains underpinned by a black box of policies, actors, and international influences. As China accelerates action to achieve domestic and international climate goals, it is more important than ever to detangle these webs and peer into the black box, to develop an understanding of what motivates China's decision-makers and how climate policy choices are made. In this insightful new report, Climate Change in China’s Governance: Agenda, Agents, and International Collaboration, Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis Senior Fellow on Chinese Politics Guoguang Wu conducts an in-depth investigation of China’s climate-related policies, politics, governance, and international relations. He finds that the Xi Jinping administration has paid special attention to climate action by advancing the green technology revolution and reducing energy dependence. However, at the same time, there are signs that China may be relaxing rather than strengthening its climate commitment. By conducting a deep dive into the evolving political actors and departments working on China’s climate agenda, Guoguang finds that ultra-concentrated political power and fragmented governance under Xi and the Chinese Communist Party pose obstacles to China’s climate action over the next five years.
Topic:
International Relations, Climate Change, Governance, and Green Technology
Political Geography:
China and Asia

57. The abuse of a motion of no confidence in Lesotho: Triggers and impact

Author:
Mokete Pherudi
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
The article notes that the motion of no confidence in the Prime Minister (PM) in Lesotho is provided for in the Constitution, but different political leaders have abused it on several occasions for various party political and subjective reasons. This article, therefore, explores the abuse of this provision, its triggers, and how they have impacted the political stability and socioeconomic situation in the country. Lesotho is a constitutional democracy governed by a constitution adopted in 1993. One of the provisions of this Constitution is Section 87,1 which deals with a ‘motion of no confidence’. Constitutionally, the government must, at all times, enjoy the confidence of the National Assembly, and Section 87(2) of the Constitution embodies the principle that: The King shall appoint as Prime Minister the member of the National Assembly who appears to the Council of State to be the leader of the political party or coalition of political parties that will command the support of a majority of the members of the National Assembly.2 Similarly, the Constitution gives Parliament the power to withdraw confidence from the government of the day. The passing of the motion of no confidence requires a simple majority, and any member of Parliament can propose it.3 The only precondition for a motion of no confidence in government is the name of a member of the National Assembly for the King to appoint in place of the PM.4
Topic:
Politics, Governance, Constitution, and Parliament
Political Geography:
Africa and Lesotho

58. Prevention of water conflicts in Central Africa and peacebuilding through transboundary waters

Author:
Michèle Désirée Nken née Okala Abega
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
In the heart of Central Africa, the management of transboundary water resources stands as a pivotal arena where the complexities of national interests converge with the imperative of conflict prevention and regional peacekeeping. The equitable distribution of shared rivers, lakes, and aquifers necessitates collaborative frameworks to navigate the intricacies of interdependence among riparian states. This article delves into the nuanced landscape of transboundary water governance, with a keen focus on the regulatory measures implemented in the Lake Chad and Congo Basins. Emphasising the integral role of community legal instruments in mitigating potential conflicts, the discussion extends to the challenges that hinder comprehensive adherence to international water conventions. Against this backdrop, the narrative unfolds to reveal the dynamic interplay between national interests and the overarching goal of regional harmony. As we traverse this exploration, the article not only sheds light on the emerging trends in Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) in Central Africa but also proposes strategies for conflict prevention and the promotion of enduring peace within the region’s shared water ecosystems.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Natural Resources, Water, Governance, Regulation, Borders, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Africa, Central Africa, Lake Chad Basin, and Congo Basin

59. The nexus between horizontal inequalities and violent conflicts: A case study of Kenya

Author:
Sylvan Odidi
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
Horizontal inequalities are defined as inequalities in economic, social or political dimensions or cultural status between culturally defined groups. Relationships between horizontal inequalities and conflict were first discussed by Frances Stewart in the Framework of Collaborative Project Series on socio-economic causes and the impact of humanitarian emergencies and internal conflicts.1 It is instructive to note that if horizontal inequalities endure over generations, it is likely to generate resentment and, subsequently, conflicts. Therefore, the duration, nature, and potency of horizontal inequalities are vital in comprehending conflict dynamics manifesting in societies. Contemporary conflict studies posit that horizontal inequalities result in conflict situations where they intersect with significant group identities.2 In addition, in circumstances where inequalities between various groups are large, the likelihood of conflict is high.3 In this regard, Stewart observes that horizontal inequalities lie at the centre of most violent conflicts in developing nations.4 Arguably, Kenya falls under the category of countries ranked as unequal globally. The distinguishing characteristic of Kenyan society lies in its regional and ethnic disparity in wealth spread among citizens.5 The degree of horizontal inequalities in Kenya typifies the interplay of ethnicity and politics as well as polarised loyalties among key institutional players. 6Existing horizontal inequalities in Kenya have culminated in violent conflicts. These conflicts lower economic productivity, weaken the capacity of institutions to provide essential services, deplete existing resources, and lead to loss of food production as well as capital flight. Ending these conflicts remains a major challenge for relevant stakeholders. This is partly due to the failure of existing leadership structures and institutions to address development challenges, equitably share resources, and promote peaceful coexistence of all communities in Kenya. Most individuals elected and/or appointed to serve Kenyans in leadership positions have failed to entrench the principles of fairness and inclusiveness in the distribution of the country’s resources since independence. While various Kenyan administrative regimes have instituted measures to minimise conflicts, such as the establishment of peace-building and conflict management policies, conflicts of varied forms have persisted. It is against this backdrop that this study seeks to explore the nexus between horizontal inequalities and conflict in the context of Kenya.
Topic:
Governance, Inequality, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

60. Chinese foreign policy in 2024: crisis management and global governance

Author:
Thomas Eder
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
This Trend Report examines key aspects of Chinese foreign policy in 2024, emphasizing three critical questions: the Taiwan situation, China’s stance in the Ukraine conflict, and its global governance reform proposals. The analysis suggests that the likelihood of a Chinese invasion or blockade of Taiwan remains low due to electoral outcomes and various deterrent factors. China is expected to intensify non-physical threats. Economic considerations, including reliance on exports and partnerships with Europe, deter China from escalating support for Russia. The "Global South" is likely to support China’s global governance reforms, driven by resentment against perceived US double standards. European decision-makers are advised to align strategies with China’s nuanced approach, emphasizing reassurances on Taiwan, clear red lines on Russia, and increased engagement with the "Global South" while upholding UN principles.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Governance, Crisis Management, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
China and Asia