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202. Nigeria’s 2023 Election: Democratic Development and Political Fragmentation
- Author:
- Sa'eed Husaini
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- Nigerians will go to the polls on February 25 to elect a new president and members of the National Assembly. This marks the 7th in an unbroken sequence of presidential elections held since the country’s return to democracy in 1999. With President Muhammadu Buhari unable to compete in the election having served two full terms, the unpopular ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) party will face a formidable challenge, not only from its traditional rival, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), but also from an unprecedented ‘third party’ challenger – a previously marginal but now surging Labour Party. This paper analyzes Nigeria’s 2023 election not only in the context of this unique partisan configuration, but also considering the wider set of factors that will, in all probability, influence the organization and the outcome of the election. These factors include the preparedness of the Independent National Electoral Commission and especially its capacity to properly deploy its newly acquired biometric and result transmission technologies. In addition, the analysis explores the ways in which the voting process and result will also reflect the limitations and risks imposed by Nigeria’s current climate of chronic insecurity, resulting from active armed militia and criminal groups operating across nearly all regions, but particularly in the Northeast, Southeast, and South-south. Insecurity has likewise coincided with rising elite polarization and the breakdown of the “zoning’ consensus ahead of the election, elevating the importance of identitarian political rhetoric in the campaigns. While insecurity appears likely to contribute to the trend of declining voter turnouts observed in previous elections, the apparent increase in political interest, particularly among young voters, as reflected in the spike in the collection of voters cards ahead of the election might mark a countervailing trend. Against this backdrop, the paper also considers the major parties, candidates, their political projects as well as their target constituencies. It finds that the parties articulated moderately divergent emphases while remaining largely consonant on the contentious economic questions of the period. It also considers possible elections scenarios that may result from the varying institutional and political characteristics of the main parties. Ultimately, it finds that the 2023 poll will represent the continued evolution of Nigerian electoral institutions and political participation in a context of lingering social division and insecurity.
- Topic:
- Development, Democracy, Political Parties, Presidential Elections, and Fragmentation
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Nigeria
203. Japan and the Pacific Islands Countries. Longstanding Strategic Interests, Recent Strategic Engagement
- Author:
- Celine Pajon
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- Japan has recently stepped up its engagement with the Pacific Island Countries (PICs), building on its historical ties and strategic interests in the region. The wealth of these territories in fishery resources and raw materials, the crucial importance of the maritime routes, and the strategic geographical location of PICs in the context of Sino-American rivalry have been key factors behind Tokyo's expanding engagement. Despite these strategic interests, the cooperation with the PICs in the postwar era up until the emergence of the Indo-Pacific narrative has been quite fragmented, reflecting the rather low priority given to the region, the multiplicity of the objectives pursued, and the diversity of engaged actors. Nevertheless, the Japan-Pacific Islands Leaders Meeting (PALM) process initiated in 1997 provided an innovative multilateral framework to coordinate with the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) over economic cooperation, improve Japan’s communications and iron out tensions, starting with nuclear. The incorporation of the PICs into Japan’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) vision cements their position in Tokyo’s efforts to preserve a rules-based international order and counterbalance China’s growing influence. Security issues of Asia have thus started to appear on the agenda of the PALM Summits. In addition, Japan has stepped up its cooperation with its closest allies and partners – the US and Australia – as part of the operationalization of a FOIP in Oceania. Finally, a major provider of development aid, Tokyo has also become a diplomatic and security partner for the Pacific Islands. Japan has stepped up naval diplomacy and defense dialogues in the region, in addition to being very active in maritime capacity-building, as well as humanitarian aid and disaster relief assistance. Despite the rise of Japanese cooperation, which is now truly multidimensional and strategic, Tokyo's ability to influence the Pacific islands and in particular to counterbalance China remains to be seen. Indeed, the PICs feel little concerned by major geopolitical projects and are careful not to create enemies. With the US and its other partners increasing their presence in the area, there is a strong impetus for Japan to reinvest in the Pacific. However, Tokyo has yet to develop a formal strategy or vision for the region. This could be announced at the next PALM summit in 2024, which will mark the 10th iteration of this meeting and could be a significant milestone.
- Topic:
- Development, Cooperation, and Strategic Engagement
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, Indo-Pacific, and Pacific Islands
204. African Media Cultures and Chinese Public Relations Strategies in Kenya and Ethiopia
- Author:
- Hangwei Li and Yuan Wang
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- China has become a global power, but there is too little debate about how this has happened and what it means. Many argue that China exports its developmental model and imposes it on other countries. But Chinese players also extend their influence by working through local actors and institutions while adapting and assimilating local and traditional forms, norms, and practices. With a generous multiyear grant from the Ford Foundation, Carnegie has launched an innovative body of research on Chinese engagement strategies in seven regions of the world—Africa, Central Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and North Africa, the Pacific, South Asia, and Southeast Asia. Through a mix of research and strategic convening, this project explores these complex dynamics, including the ways Chinese firms are adapting to local labor laws in Latin America, Chinese banks and funds are exploring traditional Islamic financial and credit products in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, and Chinese actors are helping local workers upgrade their skills in Central Asia. These adaptive Chinese strategies that accommodate and work within local realities are mostly ignored by Western policymakers in particular. Ultimately, the project aims to significantly broaden understanding and debate about China’s role in the world and to generate innovative policy ideas. These could enable local players to better channel Chinese energies to support their societies and economies; provide lessons for Western engagement around the world, especially in developing countries; help China’s own policy community learn from the diversity of Chinese experience; and potentially reduce frictions.
- Topic:
- Development, Media, Public Relations, and Engagement
- Political Geography:
- Kenya, Africa, China, and Ethiopia
205. How Indonesia Used Chinese Industrial Investments to Turn Nickel into the New Gold
- Author:
- Angela Tritto
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- China has become a global power, but there is too little debate about how this has happened and what it means. Many argue that China exports its developmental model and imposes it on other countries. But Chinese players also extend their influence by working through local actors and institutions while adapting and assimilating local and traditional forms, norms, and practices. With a generous multiyear grant from the Ford Foundation, Carnegie has launched an innovative body of research on Chinese engagement strategies in seven regions of the world—Africa, Central Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and North Africa, the Pacific, South Asia, and Southeast Asia. Through a mix of research and strategic convening, this project explores these complex dynamics, including the ways Chinese firms are adapting to local labor laws in Latin America, Chinese banks and funds are exploring traditional Islamic financial and credit products in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, and Chinese actors are helping local workers upgrade their skills in Central Asia. These adaptive Chinese strategies that accommodate and work within local realities are mostly ignored by Western policymakers in particular. Ultimately, the project aims to significantly broaden understanding and debate about China’s role in the world and to generate innovative policy ideas. These could enable local players to better channel Chinese energies to support their societies and economies; provide lessons for Western engagement around the world, especially in developing countries; help China’s own policy community learn from the diversity of Chinese experience; and potentially reduce frictions.
- Topic:
- Development, Industrial Policy, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Investment, and Innovation
- Political Geography:
- China, Indonesia, and Asia
206. Multilateral development banks are key to unlocking low-carbon investments in developing economies
- Author:
- Steven Fries
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Over the next three decades, emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs), and especially middle-income countries, are projected to account for much of the growth in global economic activity and energy use. While a decisive move to low-carbon technologies and energy efficiency would advance both their development goals and a stable climate, the countries have yet to fully tap this opportunity. The multilateral development banks (MDBs) are in a unique position to help lower barriers to low-carbon investments in EMDEs and unlock these sustainable development opportunities. Their differentiating governance, financial and technical capabilities, and financing instruments would enable MDBs to support the necessary business environment and energy reforms and to cofinance low-carbon and energy efficiency investments alongside other investors to reduce and manage risks.
- Topic:
- Development, Economy, Multilateralism, Investment, and Carbon Emissions
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
207. Scaling up locally led adaptation in Bangladesh: three action areas
- Author:
- International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
- Abstract:
- Although highly climate vulnerable, Bangladesh in South Asia is known as a pioneer of climate change adaptation. Recent national policies have recognised the vital importance of community-based and locally led adaptation (LLA). Where LLA interventions have been used by international and national nongovernmental organisations (NGOs), they have proven to be both effective and widely accepted by local communities. Yet major gaps remain in implementing LLA nationally due to legislative, administrative and conceptual limitations. Meeting Bangladesh’s ambitious national targets will require better coordination within government and with NGOs, so that each can benefit from the other. Building on recent examples, this briefing showcases existing interventions that are replicable and scalable and presents three key action areas requiring further government support. The lessons are also relevant to LLA practitioners in Bangladesh and other Least Developed Countries.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Development, Local, Community, Adaptation, and Capacity Building
- Political Geography:
- Bangladesh and South Asia
208. Forced migration, aid effectiveness, and the humanitarian–development nexus: The case of Germany’s P4P programme
- Author:
- Stefan Leiderer and Helge Roxin
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Bridging the gap between humanitarian assistance and development cooperation has been a contentious issue in academia and development practice for decades. Drawing on an evaluation of Germany’s ‘Partnership for Prospects’ initiative, this paper argues that, whilst the supplement of ‘peacebuilding’ to the nexus (humanitarian–development–peacebuilding [HDP] nexus) brought an important context factor into the discussion in an environment of conflict, it is only of marginal help in a context of forced migration to neighbouring countries of a given conflict. For the context of host countries of refugees in a protracted crisis, it is more relevant that host countries show ownership and reliability in their policies to create long-term perspectives for refugees. These policies in turn need to be embedded in reliable rules (polity) and negotiation processes (politics) in host countries. Consequently, the paper suggests that a ‘HD–Triple-P’ nexus would take the necessary political dimension into account more adequately. However, it might also mark the boundary as to what development politics can achieve.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, Humanitarian Aid, International Cooperation, Refugees, Conflict, and Forced Migration
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
209. Structural transformation and international trade: Evidence from the China shock
- Author:
- Clément Nedoncelle and Julien Wolfersberger
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- How does international trade affect structural transformation in developing countries? We use data on sectoral allocation of labour and value-added in 46 developing economies over the period 1995–2017 and exploit for identification plausibly exogenous variation in manufacturing imports from China. We find that the so-called ‘China shock’ largely slows down the transformation of low- and middle-income economies out of agriculture. In our main specification industrialization decreases by 0.49 per cent on average for each additional per cent of manufacturing imports from China. It highlights a competition effect where exposure to Chinese imports is largely detrimental to structural transformation. These results hold across geographical regions, with a difference in Sub-Saharan Africa, where international trade causes an increase in the size of the services sector.
- Topic:
- Development, Economies, Trade, Industrialization, and Structural Transformation
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
210. European aid to the MENA region after the Arab uprisings: A window of opportunity missed
- Author:
- Thilo Bodenstein and Mark Furness
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- European official development assistance to Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries increased sharply after 2011, ostensibly in support of the social, economic, and above all political changes demanded by the Arab uprisings. The subsequent turn to development policies driven by security and anti-migration agendas, especially following the Syria refugee crisis in the autumn of 2015, raises the question whether initial expressions of support for democratic transformation expressed by European donors were ever backed by concrete measures. This paper discusses this question with an exploratory review of the policy and practice dimensions of four European MENA aid programmes between 2011 and 2016. The policy dimension is explored via an analysis of available documents from the EU, France, Germany, and the UK. The practice dimension is discussed with reference to OECD-DAC aid data on bilateral aid to MENA countries, focusing on aid in the social infrastructure and services sector, and in particular on the government and civil society sub-category. Our analysis reveals that, while all donors promised to support democracy in MENA countries, none had a clear strategy for doing so via their development cooperation. At the practice level, while programmes and projects were aimed at supporting change in specific contexts, increases in aid were mostly unrelated to political change. This indicates a preference for avoiding risks, which served to underpin the region’s political and socio-economic status quo. Accordingly, European donors missed an opportunity to test whether their aid could make a difference in supporting democratic transformation in the MENA. The social, economic, and political tensions behind the Arab uprisings remain unresolved more than a decade on, meaning that there is likely a need to learn lessons from the period following 2011.
- Topic:
- Development, Democracy, Arab Spring, and Development Assistance
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, and North Africa
211. India’s economic development since independence: An interpretative survey
- Author:
- Kunal Sen
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- When India became a republic in 1950, the economy was primarily agrarian, with threefifths of output originating from agriculture. In the sixty years since independence, there has been a significant transformation of economic activity away from agriculture, with less than one-fifth of output now originating from agriculture and the rest from manufacturing and services. Since the 1980s, along with structural change, there has been strong economic growth, till 2010, followed by a period of declining growth. In this paper, we describe India’s economic foundation, paying particular interest to the processes of economic growth and structural change. We begin with a brief discussion of the patterns of growth and structural change since independence. We then discuss the economic policies that have underpinned India’s economic development. Next, we discuss the evolution of the three main economic sectors—agriculture, industry, and services. We then provide a summary of India’s regional performance. We end with a discussion of India’s economic performance in the post-2014 period.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Development, Economic Growth, Economic Policy, and Industry
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and India
212. India’s development cooperation in Africa: The case of ‘Solar Mamas’ who bring light
- Author:
- Veda Vaidyanathan
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper examines multiple facets of New Delhi’s development cooperation with countries in Africa and argues that grassroots organizations in India that find innovative, low-cost technological solutions to developmental challenges can help governments and multilateral agencies craft inclusive, sustainable policies. The aim of this paper is threefold. First, to understand the major actors, instruments, themes, and mechanisms that make up India’s Development cooperation towards countries in Africa and how these usher in a new dimension of ‘South–South cooperation’. Second, the paper will explore the role of grassroots organizations that have found localized solutions in India that then export their learnings to other geographies and how they craft a unique role for themselves in India’s broader development cooperation framework. To explore this idea further, the paper will utilize the case study of a community-based grassroots organization, Barefoot College, Tilonia, founded by Sanjit Bunker Roy in 1972, and its solar programme. The college trains women from unelectrified, remote communities to become solar engineers who then return to their rural villages with the ability to harness solar power, earning them the title of ‘Solar Mamas’. Third, this paper argues that the uneven, fragmented Indian experience of designing development assistance programmes provides an important non-western perspective that can help decision makers craft policies for an era beyond aid.
- Topic:
- Development, International Cooperation, Science and Technology, Innovation, and Sustainability
- Political Geography:
- Africa and India
213. Assessment of institutional set-up of results measurement and reporting systems for non-sovereign operations in development finance institutions
- Author:
- Patrick Mabuza, Francis H. Kemeze, Oluwatoba J. Omotilewa, Mamadou Bah, and Btissam Benkerroum
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Development finance institutions (DFIs) foster sustainable development through financing, advisory services, and technical assistance. They complement public investments in developing and underserved markets to unlock development opportunities and deliver development results. Whereas DFIs’ missions are known among practitioners, their development achievements are often less understood. Consequently, DFIs have developed different results measurement and reporting systems to document the impacts of their interventions. This includes recent efforts to harmonize development impact indicators for results measurement and reporting. However, less is known about methodologies used in development outcomes assessments, or institutional set-ups for measuring and reporting these outcomes. This hampers knowledge on what works or does not work from a development finance perspective, preventing feedback mechanisms for DFIs to learn from prior interventions, mitigate risks, and ultimately improve subsequent interventions. Using a newly developed integration index score of hard versus soft integration of results measurement and reporting systems, and primary and secondary data from eleven such systems within DFIs, this study examines the set-up and effectiveness of different results reporting systems and mechanisms currently in place in DFIs. Findings reveal that although all interviewed DFIs measure anticipated (ex-ante) and ex-post development outcomes, only 27 per cent operate a fully integrated results measurement and reporting system that permits a 360- degree feedback loop for development effectiveness.
- Topic:
- Development, Finance, and Assessment
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
214. Building resilience knowledge for sustainable development: Insights from development studies
- Author:
- Albert Sanghoon Park
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper explores how the concept of resilience has been used in development studies. Set amidst the rise of resilience in sustainable development, it offers insights for scholars and policy-makers, alike. Sampling 419 resilience-oriented journal articles from 2017–22, it uses Kuhnian paradigms to analyse development knowledge production. This produces three key findings. First is the absence of a coherent resilience paradigm (with shared definitions, problems, and methods) in development studies. Second is its use, instead, by pre-existing paradigms as a theoretical add-on to better address complexity and/or as a new buzzword to repackage prior arguments. Third are latent possibilities for resilience as both a rallying call and siren song in sustainable development. Here, resilience discourses open vital space for development cooperation and climate action. However, its outcomes will depend on whether we can first understand precisely what we talk about when we talk about resilience.
- Topic:
- Development, Politics, Sustainability, Resilience, and Knowledge Production
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
215. How does the level of success of a transition of power impact Foreign Direct Investment in African countries?
- Author:
- Maria Fossas, Jack Moore, and Alexandra Tomlinson
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
- Institution:
- School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
- Abstract:
- Transitions of power mark an inflection point in any society. They come about in all forms—elections, successions, coups, and conflicts—but in each case, it is an instance of a country embarking on a new path. In the field of development economics, it is thus essential to understand how the level of success of these power transitions impact the development of the nation. Specifically, the authors of this paper set out to determine to what extent change in foreign direct investment flows can be explained by the level of success of a transition of power. We conclude that maintaining or increasing good governance practices during a transition of power is a significant explanatory factor for changes in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and discuss the potential policy implications.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Foreign Direct Investment, Governance, and Transition of Power
- Political Geography:
- Africa
216. Supporting Female Farming Cooperatives: The Smart Choice for the African Development Bank
- Author:
- Henry Adlam
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
- Institution:
- School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
- Abstract:
- Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) faces significant challenges in agricultural productivity, with cereal yields far below the global average. Despite improvements in other regions, absolute poverty has increased in SSA over the past three decades. The COVID-19 pandemic further highlighted weaknesses in the region's food security system, exacerbated by pre-existing structural issues. This paper emphasizes the importance of empowering women in agriculture, as they constitute a substantial portion of the agricultural labor force in SSA and play a vital role in food production. However, women encounter gender-specific constraints in addition to systemic challenges. Recognizing these issues, the paper proposes that the African Development Bank (AfDB) prioritize female-centric agricultural cooperatives in its strategy, aiming to improve agricultural productivity, empower women, and achieve Sustainable Development Goals. While some multilateral and bilateral initiatives exist, a comprehensive continent-wide program is lacking. The AfDB's agro-industrial strategy, Feed Africa, provides an opportunity to support farming cooperatives, with a specific focus on female empowerment. Despite some existing investments in female farming cooperatives, the AfDB should allocate more resources to help them realize their full potential. The paper highlights the need to bridge the investment gap between large-scale projects and cooperative support, emphasizing the importance of a strategic vision beyond mere productivity improvement and calling for concerted efforts to improve gender equality and enhance agricultural productivity through female-centric cooperatives in Africa.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Development, Poverty, Women, Farming, Cooperatives, and African Development Bank (AfDB)
- Political Geography:
- Africa
217. Who Finances Energy Projects in Africa?
- Author:
- Oyintarelado Moses
- Publication Date:
- 11-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Public and private energy finance to Africa from countries in the Group of Twenty (G20) and multilateral development banks (MDBs) from 2012 to 2021 totaled $345.76 billion, according to this paper’s findings. Amounting to an average of about $35 billion per year, this finance was within the estimated $31.5–$45 billion range necessary to address Africa’s annual energy finance gap. However, it was distributed unevenly, with ten countries receiving 77 percent of all finance over the ten-year period. Some inequity may be a consequence of differing domestic energy demands, investment environments, or natural resource endowments across countries. However, the resulting distribution of energy finance over the past decade was such that many African countries—home to hundreds of millions of people—were left with substantial gaps in their financing necessities. This paper also shows that only a few countries and multilateral financing entities—including China, France, Italy, the United States, and the World Bank Group—supplied the majority of energy finance to Africa between 2012 and 2021. In many ways, this finding is unsurprising; however, it serves as a reminder that significant amounts of energy finance are subject to the policies and priorities of a small number of countries and institutions. To that point, this paper demonstrates a near total retrenchment of funding for coal projects beginning around 2018, reflecting the policy priority among these major funders to stop financing overseas coal projects. Most of the $345.76 billion in energy finance for African countries went to projects with gas/liquefied natural gas (LNG), mixed fossil fuels, and solar energy sources. Of the total energy finance, $197.17 billion (57 percent) came from public institutions, while $148.59 billion (43 percent) came from private corporations. The paper identifies some important similarities and differences between public and private finance. Both streams were highly concentrated in terms of senders and recipients, though the recipients differed slightly. For both streams, gas/LNG projects received the most or nearly the most finance. Public finance was directed to projects with more diverse energy sources, but less of the financing was directed to solar and wind projects. Most of the private finance was directed to fossil fuel projects, but when compared to public finance, a higher proportion of private finance supported solar and wind projects. Overall, the average amount of energy finance commitments that flowed to Africa from 2012 to 2021 may have been within the range of estimated need, but the unequal distribution of this finance risked leaving many countries behind. The small number of major players on the supply side of energy finance also created the potential for volatility, as internal guidance on funding priorities among these senders could evolve over the coming years and decades. Policymakers in financing countries could therefore prioritize finance distribution based on annual demands from historically low-level recipients, diversify financiers by redirecting financing to African regional banks and investors, and use public finance to crowd in private finance to projects with high potential for energy access in Africa.
- Topic:
- Development, Finance, Investment, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- Africa
218. How Saudi Arabia Bent China to Its Technoscientific Ambitions
- Author:
- Mohammed Al-Sudairi, Steven Jiawei Hai, and Kameal Alahmad
- Publication Date:
- 08-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Technoscientific cooperation between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Arab states has blossomed in recent years.1 The phrase itself has become an official “watchword” (tifa) in the context of Sino-Arab relations, suffusing nearly every official policy paper or statement on the Arab world from Beijing, including its Arab Policy Paper (2016), the China-Arab States Cooperation Forum Action Plan (2020), and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ Report on Sino-Arab Cooperation in the New Era (2022).2 Yet this newly hailed “breakthrough” (tupo) has attracted both scrutiny and concern from Western officials and academics worried about their states’ influence in the Middle East and, perhaps more pertinently, the outcome of their perceived ongoing global competition with China. The anti-Huawei campaign waged across the Gulf states by American officials during the end of Donald Trump’s presidency and the beginning of Joe Biden’s was animated by questions shaped by these anxieties: Will access to, and adoption of, Chinese technologies lead to the diffusion of new distinctively “Chinese” norms and standards (such as Chinese conceptions of cyber sovereignty) or barriers to unfettered Western market access over the long run? Will these same technologies compromise national digital ecosystems and infrastructures, thereby allowing the PRC to access sensitive information surrounding Western technologies and military deployments in the region while imposing its own distinctively Chinese vision on the region? And to what extent will these processes of technoscientific borrowing embolden authoritarianism and potentially take these states out of a Western security orbit?3 Such questions are neither new nor limited to the Middle East. The PRC’s complicated entanglements in Africa over the past few decades have produced similar-sounding concerns from the West surrounding a range of issues including Chinese “debt trap diplomacy” and resource exploitation, to which scholars such as Deborah Brautigam, Ching Kwan Lee, and Lina Benabdallah have provided nuanced counternarratives.4 Inspired by these works’ emphasis on local factors that China adapts to rather than the “Chinese ways” that Beijing and its proxies ostensibly impose, and also seeking to address some of the (primarily) Western apprehensions on Sino-Arab technoscientific cooperation, this paper focuses on a single regional actor—the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, a major comprehensive strategic partner (quanmian zhanlüe huoban) of the PRC.5 The paper is anchored by the contention that technoscientific development in Saudi Arabia reflects, above all, the objectives and strategies of the Saudi state in its pursuit of technoscientific self-strengthening. In approaching this topic from a local perspective, this analysis seeks to upend conventional narratives that view these transformations mainly through the prism of China’s rise, or that of the U.S.-China rivalry. There are dreamers and planners beyond those in the Beltway and Zhongnanhai, such as those in al-Yamamah Palace, and their ambitions must be taken into account in understanding the nature, scope, intensity, velocity, and specifics of their collaborations with China. The paper is divided into three sections. The first discusses the evolution of Saudi Arabia’s approach to technoscientific development. It serves to shed light on the underlying logic guiding the kingdom’s global search for technoscientific partnerships. The second focuses on Chinese-Saudi technoscientific cooperation and localization projects, providing a general overview of the history of such cooperation followed by a discussion of some of its structural trends and impediments in terms of human resources, the circulation of capital, and the role of the state versus the private sector. The third and final section dwells on some of the key takeaways and contextualizing lessons based on the previous sections’ findings.
- Topic:
- Development, International Cooperation, Science and Technology, Innovation, and Strategic Engagement
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, Asia, and Saudi Arabia
219. How does democracy cause growth?
- Author:
- Vanessa Boese-Schlosser and Markus Eberhardt
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
- Abstract:
- Recent empirical work has established that ‘democracy causes growth’. In this paper, we determine the underlying institutions which drive this relationship using data from the Varieties of Democracy project. We sketch how incentives and opportunities as well as the distribution of political power shaped by underlying institutions, in combination with the extent of the market, endogenously form an ‘economic blueprint for growth’, which likely differs across countries. We take our model to the data by adopting novel heterogeneous treatment effects estimators, which allow for non-parallel trends and selection into institutional change, and run horse races between underlying institutions. We find that freedom of expression, clean elections, and legislative executive constraints are the foremost drivers of long-run development. Erosion of these institutions, as witnessed recently in many countries, may jeopardise the perpetual growth effect of becoming a liberal democracy we establish for the post-WWII period.
- Topic:
- Development, Elections, Democracy, and Economic Growth
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
220. The Belt and Road Initiative and the Mega Infrastructure Investments in Africa
- Author:
- Amabilly Bonacina and Mamoudou Gazibo
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
- Institution:
- Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
- Abstract:
- This article seeks to analyze the Sino-African relations and in particular the Belt and Road Initiative investments through the study of deviant cases. Using the cases of interrupted cooperation agreements in Sierra Leone and Tanzania under the initiative, this article argues that the interruption is caused mainly by the nature of the projects which make them vulnerable to changes in domestic politics. To explain this, we propose the concept of presidential megaprojects.
- Topic:
- Development, Treaties and Agreements, Infrastructure, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Investment
- Political Geography:
- Africa, China, Tanzania, and Sierra Leone
221. A Blind Spot of Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan into Relation with India: The Second Reign Since August 2021
- Author:
- Mohammad Khalid Khawrin
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
- Institution:
- Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
- Abstract:
- India, from a humanistic perspective, has significantly contributed to Afghanistan's development and aids. The inductive research method was applied in the study. The nature of the data was in qualitative form in the secondary mood. The data was analyzed through the narrative analysis technique. The results showed that the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) is in state-making process. Afghanistan is complicated and unstable and that how it develops politically will determine how India and Afghanistan will interact in the future. It is recommended that IEA clarify and formalize its internal and external politics, policies, commitment to Islamic human rights, and responsibility to the state.
- Topic:
- Development, Bilateral Relations, Foreign Aid, and Taliban
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, South Asia, and India
222. Framing Conditionality of Foreign Aid: A Critical Approach to International Cooperation Processes
- Author:
- María Garcia-Vega and Oscar Parra
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
- Institution:
- Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
- Abstract:
- The relevance of foreign aid within International Relations is found intrinsically related to the concept of development. However, this one has transformed over the last decades but what remains intact is its conditionality. It is convenient to put foreign aid under an uncanny descriptive scope and content analysis as the development discourses are still changing, but the real underlying motivations of the states continue to be the same. From a realist constructivist approach, this text aims to study critically the forms that foreign aid has taken, especially through two main modalities: North-South Cooperation and South-South Cooperation, though this time framing is employed to study the construction of interests in foreign aid. The text is structured in the following way: framing is located as a constructivist theory in psychology and sociology that gives a logical order to the interpretation of political realities; then, the history of both foreign aid modalities allow to examine the conditions of conditionality; finally, a conclusion is drawn from the framing assessment in relation to the power relations and the construction of global development discourses. This article proposes that both North-South Cooperation and South-South Cooperation still displays the self-interested drive of the modern state.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, International Cooperation, and Foreign Aid
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus, Global South, and Global North
223. Latin America and China's Belt and Road Initiative: Challenges and Proposals from a Latin American Perspective
- Author:
- Victor Ramiro Fernandez, Juliana González Jáuregui, and Gabriel Esteban Merino
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
- Institution:
- Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
- Abstract:
- Despite the divergent perspectives that address the presence of China in the Global South through the Belt and Road Initiative, scarce approaches identify how Latin America could face that challenge to reverse its historical dependency and promote economic development. We address this question by recovering and updating structuralist, dependentist, and autonomist contributions developed in Latin America combined with an arrighiean version of the world system. We compare the Latin American and Chinese trajectories regarding regional integration, productive and technological constitutions, spatial asymmetries, and state capacities. Finally, we propose how to forge a relationship with China that enhances Latin American autonomy.
- Topic:
- Development, Infrastructure, Regional Integration, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Economic Development, and Autonomy
- Political Geography:
- China and Latin America
224. Mercosur and Post-COVID 19 Exit Strategies in Terms of Sustainable Development: Renewable Energies and Climate Change
- Author:
- Amalia Margarita Stuhldreher and Virginia Morales Olmos
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
- Institution:
- Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
- Abstract:
- COVID 19 affected the projection of the SDGs, with debates on a post-pandemic "green" exit. With a multilevel perspective, this paper addresses the evolution of energy policies in MERCOSUR countries, focusing on renewable energies and climate change. Uruguay's case is discussed, in contrast with Argentina and Brazil. Points of convergence in divergent situations are considered, given the commercial exchanges of electric energy between Uruguay and its MERCOSUR partners. Investments in renewable energies in Uruguay, its current situation, and its prospects are analyzed, considering the position of the Block and an eventual scheme of regional climate governance in the future.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Development, Sustainable Development Goals, Renewable Energy, Sustainability, COVID-19, and Mercosur
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, Argentina, and South America
225. MIT X TAU Series: Africa's Future Leaders
- Author:
- Oby Ezekwesili and Claude Grunitzky
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- The final webinar in the third annual webinar series focused on various aspects of sustainable development in Africa. Featuring: Oby Ezekwesili is the former Minister of Education in Nigeria and a co-founder of the #BringBackOurGirls movement. She is an economic policy expert, an advocate for transparency, accountability, good governance and human capital development, a humanitarian and an activist.
- Topic:
- Development, Governance, Leadership, Sustainable Development Goals, and Human Capital
- Political Geography:
- Africa
226. MIT X TAU Series: Africa's New Data
- Author:
- Kenfield Griffith and Claude Grunitzky
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- The sixth webinar in the third annual webinar series focused on various aspects of sustainable development in Africa. Featuring: Kenfield Griffith is the CEO and co-founder at Tappi.
- Topic:
- Development, Investment, Sustainability, and Data
- Political Geography:
- Africa
227. MIT X TAU Series: Africa's Forgotten Heroes
- Author:
- Kudzanai Chiurai and Claude Grunitzky
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- The fifth webinar in the third annual webinar series focused on various aspects of sustainable development in Africa. Featuring: Kudzanai Chiurai is a Zimbabwean artist and activist. His repertoire of art combines the use of mixed media which involves the use of paintings, drawings, videos and photographs to address and tackle social, political and cultural issues in Zimbabwe.
- Topic:
- Development, Culture, Sustainability, and Activism
- Political Geography:
- Africa
228. MIT X TAU Series: Africa’s New Activists
- Author:
- Busisiwe Seabe and Claude Grunitzky
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- The fourth webinar in the third annual webinar series focused on various aspects of sustainable development in Africa. Featuring: Busisiwe Seabe is a social justice activist in South Africa and a co-founder of the #FeesMustFall movement.
- Topic:
- Development, Social Justice, and Activism
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Africa
229. MIT X TAU Series: Africa's New Development Models
- Author:
- Nicolas Kazadi and Claude Grunitzky
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- The third webinar in the third annual webinar series focused on various aspects of sustainable development in Africa. Featuring: Nicolas Kazadi is is a Congolese politician and career diplomat who has been Ambassador-at-large for the Democratic Republic of the Congo since 7 March 2019 and Minister of Finance since 12 April 2021.
- Topic:
- Development, Politics, Sustainability, and Models
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Congo
230. MIT X TAU Series: Africa's Next Startups
- Author:
- Tidjane Deme and Claude Grunitzky
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- The second webinar in the third annual webinar series focused on various aspects of sustainable development in Africa. Featuring: Tidjane Deme is General Partner at Partech, co-leading Partech Africa Fund, Partech’s multi-stages tech fund exclusively dedicated to Africa's digital markets. He joined in May 2016. Prior to joining Partech, Tidjane worked for 15+ years in the tech industry in Africa, as an entrepreneur, a consultant and a senior business manager. He worked for 7 years as a senior manager at Google, leading activities in Africa. He started the Google Francophone Africa office in Dakar in 2009, led ecosystem efforts to support developer communities and tech startups across 15+ countries and led Google’s Africa Content Strategy, launching and growing YouTube in 6 markets. He also led business development for Google’s Infrastructure investments in Africa. Prior to Google, Tidjane was a tech entrepreneur who founded and led CommonSys, a consulting and integration company deploying e-gov platforms and enterprise solutions in west Africa. He also cofounded 2 startups, an e-reputation platform in Europe and a SaaS platform for African SMEs. Tidjane started his career working with Cap Gemini in France before joining Cosine Communications, a Silicon Valley startup building network virtualization technology for carriers. Tidjane grew up in Senegal until age 18, then moved to France to attend Ecole Polytechnique (Msc Physics), did an exchange program at Imperial College London, and attended Ensta-Paritech (Telecom and IT Engineering).
- Topic:
- Development, Digital Economy, Sustainability, Venture Capital, and Startup
- Political Geography:
- Africa
231. MIT X TAU Series: Africa's E-Governance, feat. President José Maria Neves
- Author:
- José Maria Neves and Claude Grunitzky
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- This special event is part of the MIT X TAU webinar series focused on various aspects of sustainable development in Africa. Speaker: His Excellency José Maria Neves is currently the President of the Republic of Cabo Verde. Neves was born on the island of Santiago and became interested in politics as a teenager. He graduated at the School of Business Administration of the Getúlio Vargas Foundation in São Paulo, Brazil. Neves was Prime Minister and Head of the Government from February 2001 to April 2016. He presided over the PAICV - Partido Africano da Independência de Cabo Verde (African Party for the Independence of Cabo Verde), having won three national legislative elections. Moderator: Claude Grunitzky is the CEO of the Equity Alliance, a fund that invests in venture capital firms and startups led by people of color and women. Claude is also the founder of TRACE and TRUE Africa, two media companies championing the creativity of African youth. A graduate of London University and MIT, where he received an MBA as a Sloan Fellow, he is launching TRUE Africa University because he wants to help find actionable ways to nurture Africa's talent.
- Topic:
- Development, Politics, Governance, Sustainability, and E-Government
- Political Geography:
- Africa
232. MIT X TAU Series: Sustainable Development In Africa: Africa's New Narratives
- Author:
- Moky Makura and Claude Grunitzky
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- The first webinar in the third annual webinar series focused on various aspects of sustainable development in Africa. Featuring: Moky Makura is a Nigerian author, journalist, actress, and businesswoman who serves as an executive director of Africa No Filter, an organization aiming at inducing changes in Africa by means of mass media. She has a degree in politics, economics, and law from University of Buckingham. In 1998, she moved to South Africa, and in 1999, started her own consultancy company. She was Deputy Director for Communications Africa at the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and since 2017 the representative of the Foundation in South Africa. Moderator: Claude Grunitzky - CEO, The Equity Alliance; Chairman, TRUE Africa Claude Grunitzky is the CEO of the Equity Alliance, a fund that invests in venture capital firms and startups led by people of color and women. Claude is also the founder of TRACE and TRUE Africa, two media companies championing the creativity of African youth. A graduate of London University and MIT, where he received an MBA as a Sloan Fellow, he is launching TRUE Africa University because he wants to help find actionable ways to nurture Africa's talent.
- Topic:
- Development, Media, Sustainability, and Narrative
- Political Geography:
- Africa
233. Gender Apartheid in Afghanistan: Foreign Policy Responses
- Author:
- Farkhondeh Akbari and Jacqui True
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Women's Development Agency (IWDA)
- Abstract:
- Nearly two years on from the Taliban’s takeover, diplomatic efforts have so far failed to anticipate or halt the unfolding regressive regime in Afghanistan. Feminist foreign policy approaches can guide both normative and practical efforts to protect and defend women’s fundamental rights in the country and support local actors to create alternative spaces for women’s and girls’ to reclaim their rights to education, employment, and political agency. This paper makes the case that governments employing a feminist foreign policy approach – as well as those who claim to prioritise gender equality – must use the term “gender apartheid” to signal their condemnation in the strongest terms. The situation of women and girls in Afghanistan is becoming more critical every day under the Taliban’s terror regime of gender apartheid. The international war fought by militaries has ended but the war against women and girls has escalated. Egregious violations of human rights and pervasive gender-based violence are occurring, targeting women protesters, women associated with the previous government, and ethnicminority women. The Taliban regime not only restricts the rights of women, but also commits new forms of sexual and gender-based violence (SGBV), such as abducting women who protest peacefully, raping them in custody, burning the hands of Panjshiri women, and lashing Hazara women. The latter are specific tortures for specific ethnic identities. These acts are also intended to dishonour the families and communities of the victims.1 The war against women is an extension of conflict by other means. The Taliban’s barbaric treatment of women and the international community’s apparent impotence to gender oppression emboldens the Taliban regime and its extremist ideology. The Taliban threatens regional and global peace and stability as extremist groups and regressive leaders in other countries are galvanized by the Taliban’s success. Despite not formally recognising their regime, some regional countries, namely China, Russia, Iran, Pakistan and Qatar, have chosen to cooperate more with the Taliban by giving them control of Afghanistan’s consulates. To date, diplomatic engagements to negotiate with the Taliban regarding its political and ideological gender policies have been futile and ineffective. The brutal oppression of women has been the defining characteristic of Taliban rule and a chief symbol of its grip on power.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Apartheid, Development, Human Rights, Taliban, Women, and Gender
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and South Asia
234. Korea has increased its lending to emerging-market and developing economies but faces risks if their debt problems grow
- Author:
- Julieta Contreras and Adnan Mazarei
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Over the last few decades, South Korea has transitioned from an aid beneficiary to a provider of financial aid to emerging-market and developing economies (EMDEs). This Policy Brief examines Korea’s role as a creditor to EMDEs and how EMDE debt problems affect it as a creditor. For now, Korea’s direct exposure to EMDEs is not large. In 2021, the latest year with comprehensive data, the stock of Korea’s claims on EMDEs amounted to almost $11 billion, about 0.6 percent of its GDP. Although this share is larger than those of some countries with similar GDP per capita, such as Italy and Spain, it is well below the shares of others, such as China and Japan. The immediate risks from Korea’s lending are limited, but it is vulnerable to risks from a systemic EMDE debt crisis in other ways, particularly through trade. It is therefore in Korea’s interest to continue to play a constructive role in ongoing international efforts, especially through the G20, to establish more effective debt restructuring frameworks.
- Topic:
- Debt, Development, Emerging Markets, Markets, and Economies
- Political Geography:
- Asia and South Korea
235. North Korea's Advanced Technologies
- Author:
- KEI
- Publication Date:
- 12-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (hereinafter DPRK or North Korea) has been pursuing technological development in a very different way from the standard path of global technology growth due to its unique historical background and other factors and sought to develop its own science and technology to establish a complete socialist nation in line with its self-reliance (juche) philosophy. Its isolation was intensified by the international sanctions imposed as a consequence of its weapons-of-mass-destruction development programs since 2006. Throughout its existence, it has been leading the life of a recluse nation with a closed economy, resulting in a low level of technology compared to that of advanced economies. In the meantime, its political structure bestows absolute power that allows the supreme leader to allocate resources in whichever sector he wants. Major industries, such as power, mining, metal, machinery, and coal, are being developed. The DPRK is also attempting to transition to a digital economy. Evidence suggests, for example, that the DPRK is raising human capital in software, which appears to have brought positive outcomes in artificial intelligence.
- Topic:
- Development, Science and Technology, Sanctions, and Digital Economy
- Political Geography:
- Asia and North Korea
236. Degrees of disadvantage
- Author:
- Chinmayi Srikanth
- Publication Date:
- 11-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This study is positioned in two strands of literature—intersectionality and social mobility. It is the first to measure (dis)advantage at the individual level as an outcome of the intersectionality of identities and parental circumstances. By linking circumstances at the parental level with (dis)advantage at the individual level, this study uses fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) in an unprecedented application, i.e. to study social mobility or generational persistence. By accounting for intersectional ascribed identities, this study is also the first to analyse social mobility for the intersectionality of caste, religion, and gender identities. Using data from the India Human Development Survey 2011–12, the study finds that, in a given generation, Hindu women can observe high outcomes only if they are born into advantageous parental circumstances. This is further tempered by their position in the social hierarchy. For men, advantageous circumstances are not a necessary precondition for upward mobility. By building epistemological arguments, this paper also makes a contribution by being the first to contend that fsQCA is the ideal method to study overdeterministic social science phenomena.
- Topic:
- Development, Women, Inequality, Identity, and Social Mobility
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and India
237. Unlocking Africa’s agricultural potential
- Author:
- Aubrey Hruby and Fatima Ezzahra Mengoub
- Publication Date:
- 09-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The rise of agriculture technology (AgTech) solutions in Africa has opened significant avenues to transform food systems and tackle long-standing obstacles to enhance smallholder productivity. To effectively expand these promising, yet nascent, AgTech solutions, collaborative efforts involving African governments, development partners, and AgTech innovators are essential. Scaling these solutions requires African governments to establish comprehensive digital-infrastructure and development partners to prioritize investments in digital solutions tailored to alleviate market and financial barriers faced by smallholder farmers. Fostering economic growth in Africa’s agricultural sector hinges on millions of smallholder farmers effectively implementing new technologies. This issue brief explores the factors that have contributed to scaling prominent AgTech companies in Africa. Additionally, the brief examines a case study from India, where the digital revolution has helped AgTech solutions reach smallholder farmers. Drawing insights from this analysis, the brief provides recommendations to African governments and development partners to establish environments conducive to AgTech companies’ growth, thereby contributing to economic advancement and prosperity.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Development, Science and Technology, Economy, and Productivity
- Political Geography:
- Africa
238. Reimagining Africa’s role in revitalizing the global economy
- Author:
- Amin Mohseni-Cheraghlou
- Publication Date:
- 10-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The world economy now finds itself at a critical juncture, facing a series of extraordinary setbacks that have pushed down growth. Reigniting growth requires a unique combination of targeted policies, robust international cooperation, and a renewed look at the global economy, with a particular focus on Africa. Due to its burgeoning and youthful population, abundant natural resources, and a strategic geographical location that can facilitate global trade, Africa can play a major role in—and should be front and center of—any renewed efforts for revitalizing the global economy. A decade-long robust, inclusive, and green growth in Africa will not only move hundreds of millions living in the continent out of poverty but will also accelerate a global rebound and recovery. However, for this to materialize, Africa needs substantial investments in its failing and inadequate physical and social infrastructure. With access to basic infrastructure, alongside efficient institutions as well as its young population, massive natural endowments, and strategic location Africa can seize its economic potential and act as an engine of growth for the global economy for decades to come. Therefore, it is crucial to support Africa to unleash its immense economic potential, through massive and focused investments in the continent’s human capital and its physical and social infrastructure.
- Topic:
- Development, International Organization, Reform, European Union, Regulation, Finance, Economy, and Economic Growth
- Political Geography:
- Africa, China, Europe, and United States of America
239. Getting back on track: Unlocking Kosovo’s Euro-Atlantic and development perspective
- Author:
- Agon Maliqi
- Publication Date:
- 12-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- February 17, 2023, marked fifteen years since the Republic of Kosovo declared its independence, supported by many of its Western partners. Since then, the Balkan country has made a lot of strides and hit many roadblocks in its popularly supported path toward joining Euro-Atlantic structures like NATO and the European Union (EU), as well as in its pursuit of development objectives. Since February 2008, the security and political environment surrounding Kosovo has also changed in decisive ways, and mostly in a negative direction. The new global security environment shaped by Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and the rise of China has redefined and reshaped the parameters within which Kosovo attempts to achieve its strategic external and domestic goals, including the threat of renewed violent conflict. This paper attempts to take stock of the current state of play on both the domestic and external fronts, and to offer a few guiding principles to observers and decision-makers in Kosovo, as well as to its friends and supporters in the international arena, on how to move forward. In the new global security environment, smaller regions like the Western Balkans tend to become afterthoughts for Western observers and decision-makers, and individual countries of these smaller regions even more so. This is reflected in the EU’s enlargement fatigue, which has largely been responsible for the region’s stalled accession process over the past decade. Yet the Western Balkans are precisely the type of region in which tectonic geopolitical shifts have the greatest impact, and where their currents hit the hardest. As such, developments in Kosovo and the Western Balkans represent a broader vulnerability to European security as well as a microcosm of what a world shaped by global power competition looks like. This paper portrays how things look in one of the global battlegrounds—a small but important one for European security. The paper aims to achieve three main objectives. First, it aims to summarize the key challenges Kosovo faces as it tries to consolidate its external position and get to a new development level. It is written with a bird’s-eye view and, as such, it may omit a lot of important issues while zooming in with granular detail on a few others that are central to the topic. Second, the paper is written with the dual aim of both informing and updating foreign audiences who have a less detailed understanding of the region and Kosovo, while also being sufficiently thorough and informative for seasoned observers and decision-makers in Kosovo and in the Balkans. As such, the paper strives to achieve the balance of restating many basic facts while also hoping that others may be self-evident. Finally, the paper seeks to be forward-looking, and not to get bogged down in the abyss of immediate developments. The tensions and violent episodes witnessed during the past two years in Kosovo’s north make it particularly challenging to engage in an analytical exercise that looks at Kosovo’s medium- and long-term situation beyond day-to-day relations with Serbia. Yet, these developments illustrate the urgency and unsustainability of the status quo in the affairs between the two countries, which the paper deals with at length. The paper is structured in three main sections and makes ten (numbered) central arguments, which are then elaborated in more detail. The first section, titled The Story So Far (points one to three), offers a brief overview of the political and economic context of how things have played out since independence. It tells the story of how Kosovo managed to demonstrate resilience to a wide range of political and economic challenges, and how it also has hit major roadblocks in the pursuit of its Euro-Atlantic and development agenda. The second section, Forward View 1 (points four to seven, outlines a forward view of how Kosovo can consolidate its statehood and security over the next decade. It looks at the state of play and offers a blueprint for how Kosovo, with the help of its international partners, can get closer to being recognized and able to join multilateral organizations in the new geopolitical environment shaped by Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. The third section (points eight to ten) is a forward view of Kosovo’s development challenges and perspectives. It outlines some of the key elements that need to be in place for Kosovo’s economy to accelerate to a new level of sophistication, and for its institutions to deliver effectively.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, Diplomacy, Economy, and Business
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Kosovo, and Balkans
240. Climate Change and Trade to the EU Priority Sectors for Policy Intervention in South Africa
- Author:
- Jason F. Bell, Sumayya Goga, and Nishal Robb
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for Business and Development Studies (CBDS), Copenhagen Business School
- Abstract:
- The deepening climate crisis has resulted in countries instituting a range of measures to curb emissions. The European Union (EU) has the most advanced climate policies, captured under the umbrella of its European Green Deal (EGD). While many of the measures being implemented impact countries within the EU, the measures are expected to impact Europe’s trading partners. The impacts on trading partners is occurring through changing regulations and policies such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), shifting consumer preferences, and impacts through value chains as a result of changing competitiveness of end products. EGD policies are forcing trading partners to the EU to adjust and decarbonise production processes, measure and report on emissions and other sustainability criteria, and, in some cases, even transform sectors to retain market share (the move towards electric vehicles). These policies include, among others, carbon taxes through the CBAM, the move towards electric vehicles in order to curb emissions, and a range of measures within the food sector. Together, these policies bring significant changes in the global trading system and the functioning of value chains. The costs associated with adjusting to these policies are high. Furthermore, these costs need to be borne by developing countries over and above the adaptation costs.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Development, European Union, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, and South Africa
241. Human security and energy transition in NATO's South
- Author:
- Eckart Woertz
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- NATO Defense College
- Abstract:
- Energy lies at the heart of human security and development challenges facing the arid and energy rich Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. While risks such as water shortages, food insecurity, political instability and forced migration have received ample attention from analysts, energy transitions have comparatively received less scrutiny. Energy transitions present more development opportunities than risks for external actors, and these risks transcend borders by entangling the MENA within a broader geography that ultimately affects European security. Within this entanglement lie opportunities that could be harnessed to improve cooperation, sustainability and human security for NATO and Partners in the MENA. Framing energy and climate change as security threats has a long history in international cooperation with the MENA. As NATO responds to the war in Ukraine and rethinks its crisis management tools, raising awareness of new risks while grasping potential opportunities becomes all the more important given the return of strategic competition to the MENA. The implementation of the 2022 Strategic Concept and its focus on “resilience” requires Allies to go beyond traditional securitized views of development. This Policy Brief highlights two trends that will likely impact energy transitions in the MENA for the coming years: transnational critical infrastructure; and the development of new hydrocarbon and alternative energy resources. The first will influence regional geopolitics while the second will impact energy security in the MENA and Europe. Concerning energy resources, we examine two developments: growing supplies of natural gas and green hydrogen – a zero emissions * Director of the Institute for Middle East Studies at the German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA) and Professor of contemporary history and politics of the Middle East at the University of Hamburg. process of generating hydrogen from water. Cooperation with MENA countries on energy transitions can enhance European security by contributing to socio- economic development in MENA countries. To this end, NATO can play a
- Topic:
- NATO, Development, Human Security, and Energy Transition
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, and North Africa
242. Sick Development: How rich-country government and World Bank funding to for-profit private hospitals causes harm and should be stopped
- Author:
- Anna Marriott
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- Development finance institutions owned by European governments and the World Bank Group are spending hundreds of millions of dollars on expensive for-profit hospitals in the Global South that block patients from getting care, or bankrupt them, with some even imprisoning patients who cannot afford their bills. At the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, some of these same hospitals denied entry to patients suffering from the virus or sold intensive care beds at eyewatering prices to the highest bidder. These development institutions have woefully inadequate safeguards, invest via a complex web of tax-avoiding financial intermediaries, and offer little to zero evidence on the impacts their investments are having. Oxfam is calling on rich European governments and the World Bank Group to immediately halt their spending on for-profit private healthcare, and for an urgent independent investigation to be conducted into all active and historic investments.
- Topic:
- Development, World Bank, Economic Development, COVID-19, Private Equity, Universal Healthcare, and Profiteering
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Global South
243. Good Practices in the Provision of Global Public Goods: How multilateral development banks build on global public goods in their operations
- Author:
- Johanna Neuhoff and Hannah Zick
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- In our flagship report, ‘Multilateral Development Banks for Global Public Goods’, commissioned by Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, Oxford Economics highlighted the positive role that the use of GPGs can play in preventing and addressing crises that cross national boundaries. As part of that work, we wanted to identify and share promising practices and good examples of how the provision of GPGs can be supported through international funding—and in particular through MDBs. We gathered a longlist of 99 examples of MDBs supporting GPG provision based on comprehensive desk research and interviews with over 30 key actors in the realm of project development. From this, we selected 20 case studies to carry out “deep dive” research to showcase good practices of provision of GPGs by MDBs based on whether the intervention: benefitted not only people inside the country of implementation but also beyond the country’s borders; supported the implementation of framework conditions that change the incentive structure for the provision of GPGs; could be replicated in other countries; and rated a good practice in reports or named a good practice by interview partners from MDBs. As a result, we gathered examples of GPG projects supported by MDBs and multilateral institutions at the country level that might not have been intended to only support GPG provision—such as those GPG projects mostly financed via Trust Funds and FIFs—but which also produced high GPG effects by maximising the synergies between national and global benefits. The case studies are designed to inform stakeholders from MDBs and receiving countries involved in the programming and project designing of development cooperation alike. The case studies showcase promising and highly replicable ways of supporting the provision of GPGs in the MDBs’ country engagement—considering both national and cross-country benefits of an intervention. Furthermore, valuable lessons can be learned on the institutional set-up, financing, quantification etc. concerning the support of GPGs by MDBs. They include examples of projects in sub-Saharan Africa, East Asia & Pacific, Latin America and the Caribbean, and South Asia, and which covered issues such as climate and the environment, global public health, peace and security, financial resilience, and a fair international trading system. In a synthesis report, we set out 12 recommendations to organisations implementing GPGs to ensure they maximise the benefits on the ground, based on our findings from the analysis of the case studies. These range from using cost-benefit analysis and focusing on projects with high cross-country benefits to helping coordination of in-country provision and encouraging regional learning.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Development, Environment, International Trade and Finance, Institutions, Public Health, and Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs)
- Political Geography:
- South Asia, East Asia, Germany, Latin America, Caribbean, Asia-Pacific, Global Focus, and Sub-Saharan Africa
244. A Conceptual Framework for Monitoring and Evaluation for Learning and Adaptation (MELA) in NGOs
- Author:
- James Ward Khakshi
- Publication Date:
- 11-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Brac University
- Abstract:
- The significance of organizational learning in general and the learning roles of monitoring and evaluation (M&E) in non-government organizations (NGOs) in particular is widely recognized. However, in many instances, the normative frameworks or recommendations tend to be overly theoretical or only partial to their real entirety, which limits their practical applications. This paper aims to contribute with a conceptual framework for monitoring and evaluation for learning and adaptation (MELA) specifically in NGOs. The MELA framework is designed to drive organizational and programmatic improvements by outlining a learning process that encompasses planning, creation, and adaptation based on the learning from M&E activities. The paper introduced the continuum of learning types, the planning process for adaptive management, characteristics of MELA, methodological implications for learning, and programmatic adaptations at operational, tactical, and strategic levels.
- Topic:
- Development, NGOs, Performance Evaluation, Adaptation, and Monitoring
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
245. The Comeback of Industrial Policy. The Next Geopolitical Great Game
- Author:
- Alessandro Gili, Davide Tentori, and Paola Magri
- Publication Date:
- 12-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
- Abstract:
- Industrial policies are the key element underlying today’s geopolitical scramble and a pillar of national security. Reacting to Western weaknesses and bottlenecks in the global supply chains, highlighted by multiple shocks such as the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and the recent Israel-Hamas war, the US in first place and the EU later have started to introduce new industrial legislation aimed at making up for lost ground with respect to other industrial powerhouses, such as China. Besides being policy tools to accelerate the green and digital transitions, however, the US Inflation Reduction Act and the Net Zero Industry Act, as well as the US and the EU Chips Acts, entail subsidies, local content requirements and export controls targeted at strengthening the domestic industrial base for critical technologies, fostering strategic autonomy and de-risking from excessive foreign dependencies. This race poses risks for the weaponisation of industrial policies and fragmentation of international trade and also potentially jeopardises technological development. How can we strike a balance between economic security and efficiency? Which sectors are the most critical and which ones are the leading global powers pursuing? What will the consequences be for global value chains and international trade? Is it possible to reach an agreement on rules for a new level playing field to prevent economic competition turning into economic warfare?
- Topic:
- Development, Industrial Policy, National Security, Science and Technology, European Union, Geopolitics, Trade, and Supply Chains
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and United States of America
246. The Last Hurdle? Unyielding Motherhood Effects in the Context of Declining Gender Inequality in Latin America
- Author:
- Mariana Marchionni and Julian Pedrazzi
- Publication Date:
- 11-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
- Abstract:
- We assess whether motherhood could be the last hurdle to achieving gender equality in developing countries by exploring the link between motherhood and the overall gender gap in the labor market for 14 Latin American countries over the last two decades. Using pseudo- panels built from harmonized household surveys and an event study approach around the birth of the first child, we find that the arrival of the first child leads to a sharp and persistent 35% decline in mothers’ earnings. This result is explained by a reduction in employment and a prompting shift towards occupations that favor more flexible work arrangements, including part-time and informal jobs. These effects are pervasive across countries and population groups. Furthermore, using an extended version of the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition, we identify motherhood as the primary source of income inequality between men and women. Motherhood explains 42% of the remaining gender gap and has progressively gained relative importance over the last two decades while other contributing factors, such as education and its associated returns, have shown a waning impact. Moreover, we find no clear cross- country association between the motherhood-related gap and per capita GDP or gender norms, while the contribution of other factors to the gender gap in earnings diminishes with higher per capita GDP and more gender-egalitarian social norms. This suggests that gender gaps stemming from the motherhood effect exhibit greater rigidity than other drivers of gender inequality.
- Topic:
- Development, Inequality, Gender, Decomposition, Motherhood, and Child Penalty
- Political Geography:
- Latin America
247. The Anti-Circumvention Instrument: Another Roadblock on the Investment Development Path?
- Author:
- Weihuan Zhou and Victor Crochet
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
- Abstract:
- Companies from emerging economies, and China in particular, have started internationalizing their production operations. In doing so, they are following the same path as that taken by American, European and East Asian corporations before them, by setting up factories in third countries to serve their export markets from closer locations and produce more efficiently. Thus, it is no longer only developed countries’ multinationals which are moving their operations to developing countries, but emerging market companies that are increasingly engaging in production abroad. This phenomenon is having beneficial effects in countries where these companies invest and might help them start their own industrialization process. Yet, it has attracted the ire of developed countries, in particular the European Union. They are now targeting these downstream production plants abroad by using the so-called anti-circumvention instrument, resulting in trade defence duties imposed on the parent companies being extended to their foreign subsidiaries. This application of the anti-circumvention instrument departs from its historic rationale and might hinder the development of countries in need of foreign investment. Therefore, affected governments should consider taking international legal action to bring developed countries to the negotiating table to put a halt to this abuse of the anti-circumvention instrument.
- Topic:
- Development, Industrial Policy, Investment, Trade, Internationalization, Production, Emerging Economies, and Anti-Circumvention Instrument
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Global Focus, and United States of America
248. Foreign Linkages, Innovation & Productivity: Evidence from Enterprise Surveys
- Author:
- Anmol Kaur Grewal
- Publication Date:
- 09-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
- Abstract:
- This paper estimates a three-stage structural model of how foreign linkages affect innovation which in turn affects firm productivity. Using harmonized firm-level data from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys, I construct a panel dataset for 47 developing countries spanning 2003 to 2019. I distinguish between four types of foreign linkages (exports, imports, inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and the use of foreign-licensed technology), and two types of innovation (product innovation and process innovation). To mitigate concerns regarding sample selection and endogeneity biases, I employ advanced panel data methods. In the first stage, I find that being an exporter, using foreign inputs, and using foreign-licensed technology makes firms more likely to invest in R&D, relative to other firms. I also find evidence of sample selection bias which is corrected by using a two-step Heckman selection model. In the second stage, I find that while increases in the R&D intensity increase the probability of product innovation, they have no statistically significant effect on the likelihood of process innovation. In the third stage, I find that product or process innovation is associated with increases in firm-level productivity. These results remain robust across alternative measures of innovation and firm productivity.
- Topic:
- Development, Foreign Direct Investment, Exports, Innovation, Imports, Productivity, and Foreign Linkages
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
249. ECOWAS and the management of political transitions in Mali, Guinea and Burkina Faso: Adopting a three-dimensional approach for stability and sustainable democracy and development
- Author:
- Mubin Adewumi Bakare
- Publication Date:
- 11-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Conflict Trends
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- According to the Secretary General of the United Nations (UN), Antonio Guterres, 2021 was a year marked by ‘an epidemic’ of coups.1 The Economist noted that 2021 saw more coups than the previous five years combined.2 Scrutinising the data further reveals that the West African region experienced the largest number of military coups, both successful and failed, during 2021 and 2022. There were four successful coups d’état in Mali, Guinea and Burkina Faso, and failed coup attempts and mutiny in Niger and Guinea Bissau between March 2021 to January 2022. This democratic reversal portends political instability, and its attendant economic consequences for the ECOWAS are concerning considering the developmental agenda of the region.3 The focus of this article is examining measures for strengthening democratic transitions in Mali, Guinea and Burkina Faso by analysing responses at the national, regional and international levels to ensure rapid restoration of constitutional order. It begins by reviewing the experience of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in supporting democratic transition in the region, while stressing and recognising the interlinkages between defence, development and peacebuilding in laying the foundation for democratisation, peace and sustainable development. The article will advance certain policy prescriptions that entail long-term investments by the international community, and regional and civil society actors in West Africa in the areas of defence, development and peacebuilding, as part of a comprehensive support towards successful democratic transition in the affected countries.
- Topic:
- Development, Politics, Democracy, Transition, and ECOWAS
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Mali, Guinea, and Burkina Faso
250. Three frontlines in Africa's resource conflicts
- Author:
- Peter Albrecht and Marie Ladekjær Gravesen
- Publication Date:
- 09-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Conflicts over land and resources are nothing new on the African continent. However, as global attention has turned towards environmental issues – as well as Africa’s rich renewable energy sources and precious minerals – the nature of these conflicts has changed. Research shows three frontlines that investors, humanitarian actors, and policymakers need to be aware of as they invest or engage in green initiatives in Africa.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Climate Change, Development, Migration, Water, Food, Non State Actors, Governance, Inequality, and Land Rights
- Political Geography:
- Africa