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81. Egypt’s Consolidated Authoritarianism

Author:
Amr Hamzawy
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
The current Egyptian political scene reveals an important paradox: since its ascendancy to power in 2013, the military-led authoritarian government has not faced significant challenges from civil society despite systematic hu- man rights abuses and continuous societal crises. Apart from limited protests by labor activists, student movements, and members of syndicates, Egyptians have mostly refrained from protesting, instead hoping that the government will improve their living conditions despite a rising poverty rate of 33 percent, an inflation rate between 11 and 12 percent, and unemployment at eight percent.1 This popular reluctance to challenge the authoritarian government has continued to shape Egypt’s reality since the collapse of the short-lived democratization process from 2011–2013.2
Topic:
Corruption, Democratization, Politics, Authoritarianism, Protests, and Military
Political Geography:
North Africa and Egypt

82. Will Ukraine Be Able to Establish Real Property Rights?

Author:
Anders Åslund
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Over time, the necessary economic reforms have become so obvious that they have become politically possible in most places. The great problem has become the establishment of real property rights. By and large, Central and Eastern Europe have managed to accomplish that not least thanks to support from the European Union. In the former Soviet Union, however, only Georgia succeeded in that endeavor. The big question today is whether Ukraine will manage to do so, or whether it will be caught in a low-economic-growth trap. The three main elements that are needed are independent courts, autonomous prosecutors, and a law-abiding law enforcement, while no old secret police structures should be allowed to sabotage them.
Topic:
Corruption, Democratization, Economics, Reform, and Elections
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

83. Overcoming the Democratisation Deficit in the Western Balkans: A Road to (No)Where?

Author:
Vedran Dzihic
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
The internal weaknesses of the process of democratisation in the Western Balkans ensue from reinforcing a system where (ethno)politics and (ethno)political entre-preneurs use all available strategies to deprive citizens of any political agency, thus working towards obedient democracies while keeping real political power within closed circles. The conscious deepening of differences, maintaining negative tensions and instrumentalising – predominantly ethnic – identities for political or other particular purposes are some of the crucial features of (ethno)politics in the Western Balkans. The promise of Europeanisation is losing its ability to mobilise citizens as it faces a two-fold challenge: 1) No Push – while it is clear that progress in the accession process is extremely slow, even those steps which have been completed with success are left without meaningful recognition that could revive the ambition to join the EU; 2) No Pull – The support of political leaders displaying all the characteristics of illiberal and even authoritarian rule is maintained for the sake of stability in the region. The trend of strengthening right-wing and even extreme organisations of civil society adds another worrying dimension to the Western Balkans’ complex, socio-political situation. Illiberal NGOs nowadays use a different vocabulary and new strategies to disguise their illiberal claims and policies as human rights discourse. An increasing mainstreaming of their image and key messages builds on the lessons learnt exactly from liberal civil society. They flourish in the context of the apparent weakness of the leftist political forces which are seeking inspiration and possible mass mobilisation in the new community-based social movements.
Topic:
Democratization, Human Rights, and Social Movement
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Balkans

84. China's Engagement in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Xinjiang: Will China's Root Cause Model provide regional stability and security?

Author:
Lars Erslev Andersen and Yang Jiang
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
In the latest policy report in DIIS’s Defence and Security Studies series, Lars Erslev Andersen and Yang Jiang discuss the potential of China’s approach to stabilising security conditions in Pakistan and Afghanistan through development. The report explores China’s westward policy by analysing the opportunities and obstacles related to its flagship Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in South Asia, in particular the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). One aspect of the philosophy behind the CPEC is that lifting people out of poverty by providing them with better opportunities for jobs and incomes and hence improved living conditions will reduce the attractions of violent extremism and the inclination to indulge in it, thereby enhancing stability. This so-called Root Cause model draws on China’s experience of successfully lifting more than 600 million of its own citizens out of poverty due to the reform policy that has changed China rapidly over the past forty years, especially in the big cities in eastern China. However, the model has had mixed results in western China, especially in Xinjiang province. As this issue can shed light on the kinds of problems that China will face in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the report explores the situation in Xinjiang by investigating how it is conducting its policy there. The report outlines this development, which brings the Root Cause model into question to some extent, thus identifying some of the challenges that China will face in trying to stabilise conflict-torn parts of Pakistan and Afghanistan ‘the Chinese way’. Following these observations, the report takes a closer look at China’s economic diplomacy in Afghanistan. The last section discusses China’s increasing role in mediating between Afghanistan, Pakistan and the Taliban. Whether the Chinese approach to the situation in Pakistan and Afghanistan proves to be a sustainable way of providing stability and achieving results is the question addressed in the report’s conclusion.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Democratization, Development, Emerging Markets, Migration, Oil, Power Politics, Non State Actors, Gas, Fragile States, Economy, Conflict, Investment, Peace, and Land Rights
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, China, South Asia, and Asia

85. Stepping up Synergies of the Danish Comprehensive Approach: The Peace and Stabilization Fund

Author:
Jessica Larsen and Christine Nissen
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The Danish Peace and Stabilisation Fund is a prime example of how to combine civilian and military instruments to address conflicts in fragile states. However, there is still room for stepping up synergies of the military-civilian balance in Denmark’s comprehensive conflict management. Recommendations ■ Increase the frequency of formal feedback between the field and the strategic level of the PSF to avoid loss of knowledge. ■ Synergies between civilian and military instruments should take place through complimentary-but-separate interventions. ■ Take PSF instruments into account when planning Denmark’s broader engagement in conflicts to ensure a more comprehensive security policy effort.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Democratization, Development, Non State Actors, Fragile States, Violence, Peace, Police, and Justice
Political Geography:
Europe and Denmark

86. Hamas parliament approves budget for Gaza gov't

Author:
Emad Drimly and Fares Akram
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
GAZA, Hamas parliamentary bloc has recently approved the financial budget for Hamas’ government in the Gaza Strip, officials said on Monday. The Hamas-dominated Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) approved the budget, although other parliamentary blocs, including Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’s Fatah movement, boycotted the session. The budget for the fiscal year is 428 million U.S. dollars and it applies only in the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip, excluding the West Bank which is ruled by the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) led by Abbas. Fatah says the PLC sessions have been illegal since June 2007 when Hamas routed pro-Abbas forces and seized control of the coastal strip. The approval of the budget took place as Israel still keeps a tight blockade on Gaza and amid vagueness and controversy over Hamas’ financial resources. In the West Bank, the Western-backed Abbas government goes through fiscal crisis despite financial support from the international community.
Topic:
Democratization, International Political Economy, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Gaza

87. Le récit de vie d’une génération : la trajectoire de Chinois nés avec la Chine socialiste (The life story of a Generation : Chinese born under socialist China)

Author:
Jean-Louis Rocca
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:
One of the most striking phenomena of China’s recent history is the singular life trajectory of the generation born in large metropolises between the end of the 1940s and the early 1950s. After having endured with full force their country’s upheavals and ruptures after 1949, the people of this generation occupy dominant positions in most sectors of social life today. Yet despite its importance, the history of this generation—who contributed to build what China is today—has not triggered much academic research. The seven life stories presented in this study provide information and a testimony that help understand how these people elaborate a discourse on their personal experience. Analysing this discourse makes it possible to grasp the connections between individual life paths and events as well as social determinations.
Topic:
Democratization, History, Political structure, Political Science, and Memory
Political Geography:
China and Asia

88. Amérique latine - L’année politique 2017

Author:
Javier Corrales, Olivier Dabène, Gaspard Estrada, Antoine Faure, Erica Guevara, Marie-Esther Lacuisse, Damien Larrouqué, Nordin Lazreg, Frédéric Louault, Antoine Maillet, Frédéric Massé, and Luis Rivera Vélez
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:
Amérique latine - L’Année politique is a publication by CERI-Sciences Po’s Political Observatory of Latin America and the Caribbean (OPALC). The study extends the work presented on the Observatory’s website (www.sciencespo.fr/opalc) by offering tools for understanding a continent that is in the grip of deep transformations.
Topic:
Corruption, Crime, Democratization, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Sovereignty, Peacekeeping, Protests, Political Science, Regional Integration, Transnational Actors, and Borders
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Latin America, Nicaragua, Caribbean, Haiti, Venezuela, Dominican Republic, Mexico, Jamaica, Costa Rica, Chile, Peru, Paraguay, and Bolivia

89. Causes and Conditions of Bhutan’s Democratic Transition

Author:
Dorji Penjore
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Bhutan Studies
Institution:
Centre for Bhutan & GNH Studies (CBS)
Abstract:
After more than two and a half centuries of ecclesiocratic rule and one hundred years of absolute monarchy, Bhutan became democracy in 2008. This historic event was preceded by abdication of the Fourth Majesty in 2006. It is often described as one of the most peaceful democratic transitions in modern history without any role for internal crisis or external pressure. Rather than the people demanding democracy from the king, the latter voluntarily sacrificed his absolute power to empower his subjects for future peace and wellbeing. Mieko Nishimizu (2008) wrote, “The world, after all, had never known a monarch who not only spearheaded political reforms to democracy, but also chose to abdicate the throne on his own terms – at the peak of popularity, in the fullest of his time” (p. xi). It was for the first time in world history that a monarch had voluntarily surrendered his powers and eventually abdicated the throne with no other reasons than pursuing political reforms for the sake of the kingdom and the people (Mathou, 2008). However, it must be noted that democracy did not come overnight; it is rather the final fruit of more than 50 years of political reforms initiated by the monarchs. The reforms were made smooth and successful by the nature of traditional Bhutanese political and social structure, which was fundamentally democratic and egalitarian.
Topic:
Democratization, Politics, Reform, and Monarchy
Political Geography:
South Asia and Bhutan

90. Transitional Justice in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:
Center for International and Regional Studies
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for International and Regional Studies (CIRS), Georgetown University in Qatar
Abstract:
Following the ‘Arab Spring’ uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa, many had high hopes not only for democratization but also for transitional justice to address the myriad abuses that had taken place in the region, both during the uprisings and for decades prior to them. Despite these hopes, most of the transitions in the region have stalled, along with the possibility of transitional justice. This volume is the first to look at this process and brings together leading experts in the fields of human rights and transitional justice, and in the history, politics and justice systems of countries such as Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Algeria, Bahrain and Morocco. While these countries have diverse histories, political institutions, and experiences with accountability, most have experienced non-transition, stalled transition, or political manipulation of transitional justice measures, highlighting the limits of such mechanisms. These studies should inform reflection not only on the role of transitional justice in the region, but also on challenges to its operation more generally.
Topic:
Democratization, Human Rights, Law, and Arab Spring
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

91. A difficult birth: Complexities and prospects for the formation of the Moroccan government

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Abstract It appears from his decision to replace Abdelilah Benkirane with Saadeddine Othmani as head of the government that Moroccan King Mohammed VI does not want to deviate from the requirements of the constitution and democratic methods. He is attempting to use his constitutional powers to find an acceptable solution to end the stalemate and form a government. Othmani has succeeded in reaching a tentative agreement to form the government and is likely to succeed in its formation and leadership. However, he will head a heterogeneous government afflicted by many contradictions, which may implode if it falls under excessive pressure. The government would then be in crisis, which it would have to overcome with a cabinet reshuffle to avoid a complete collapse, especially given the strong position of the king who wants the Justice and Development Party to continue leading the government in future.
Topic:
Democratization, International Affairs, and Governance
Political Geography:
Morocco

92. The Significance of the ‘YES’ Vote to the Constitutional Amendments in Turkey and Its Repercussions

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The Supreme Electoral Council of Turkey has officially announced that the Yes camp has won the constitutional amendments by just over 51 per cent, in contrast to the camp rejecting the amendments which received just over 48 per cent, although these results are not yet final. Surprisingly, an overwhelming majority of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), though its leadership and the majority of its parliamentary bloc supported the amendments, voted ‘no’. The five major cities – Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir, Adana and Antalya – all voted ‘no’. The Kurdish vote clearly played a very important role in the Yes supporters’ victory. In other words, those who said ‘yes’ to the changes in cities with a significant Kurdish population exceeded the total votes of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the MHP in the recent parliamentary elections. In the external sphere, the referendum’s outcome is not expected to have a direct impact on heated regional issues, particularly in Syria, as well as most regional issues.
Topic:
Democratization and International Security
Political Geography:
Turkey

93. Constitutional amendments in Turkey: Predictions and implications

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
02-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The Justice and Development Party (AKP) could not possibly have received approval for the proposed constitutional amendments in parliament and needed the Nationalist Movement Party’s support in order to carry out a referendum. A difficult election campaign for the amendments awaits the two opposing parties; however, there is no way to be certain before the announcement of the referendum results. Nevertheless, the most important issue relates to the long-term consequences for the AKP, particularly in terms of its Kurdish base. In terms of ethnicities, the AKP is considered the party of Turks, Kurds, Arabs, Circassians and all other Turkish ethnic groups, while the Nationalist Movement Party has traditionally been committed to the most severe position against the Kurdish Nationalist Movement, including its armed and unarmed wings.
Topic:
Democratization and Constitution
Political Geography:
Turkey

94. Military and Democracy: Conflict Resolution in Reference with Constitutional and Political Development of Pakistan

Author:
Iqra Khalil and Naveed Ahmed
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
A strong army plays an important role for the defense and security of any country. Without a strong army, no country can survive smoothly. Unfortunately, in Pakistan, army remained dominant in the political and constitutional development since independence because of some loopholes in the political and constitutional system. Consequently, Pakistan had to face various military coups. In British India, Army neither tried to overrule the Constitutional and political decisions taken by the Government, nor took over the country and the same rule was followed by the Indian army after independence which ultimately strengthens their political institutions. Whereas Pakistan has to face various successful as well as unsuccessful coups which not only derail the political institutions but also destabilizes the social, economic and legal systems of the country. The purpose of this article is to critically analyze the role of army in the political and Constitutional development of Pakistan especially the role of courts in validation of the different coups imposed by military dictators. This article deals with the recent constitutional amendments and judgments delivered by superior courts and to look how far the judiciary can go to stop further military intervention in the political affairs of Pakistan?
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Development, Politics, Military Affairs, and Constitution
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, and Punjab

95. Theories of Democratic Change II : Paths Away from Authoritarianism

Author:
Jeffrey Conroy-Krutz and Erica Frantz
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of International Education (IIE)
Abstract:
Despite the global spread of democracy following the end of the Cold War, dictatorships still rule about one-third of the world’s countries. The persistence of authoritarian governments poses a challenge for the international community on a variety of fronts: dictatorships are more likely to repress their citizens, instigate wars, and perpetrate mass killing, among others. This challenge is even more pressing given the gradual decline in the number of democracies worldwide over the last decade. Practitioners confront critical questions about which strategies are likely to pave the way for democratization versus which are likely to stifle it. Through a research grant funded by USAID’s Center of Excellence on Democracy, Human Rights, and Governance (the DRG Center), under the Institute of International Education’s (IIE’s) Democracy Fellows and Grants Program, a research team from Michigan State University worked with the DRG Center to organize and evaluate the body of current academic scholarship that can contribute to understanding how and why countries move on paths from authoritarianism to democracy. The publication was informed and vetted in two peer review workshops by a group of democratization scholars from American University, Brown University, Columbia University, George Washington University, Harvard University, Pennsylvania State University, Rutgers University, and the University of Chicago. The publication begins by providing an overview of the concept of democratization and the difficulties of identifying and defining it. The theories related to democratization are offered in a simple theory matrix, allowing practitioners to quickly and easily: Survey the body of academic work dedicated to democratization through a succinct presentation of 34 theories organized within seven thematic theory families; Interpret the cause-and-effect relationships that academic research identifies through the presentation of brief hypotheses; Understand how scholars evaluate the strength and reliability of each hypothesis through a brief summary of the research team’s assessment of causal arguments and evidence; and Explore how each theory can support the assessment and design of development programs, through basic questions that offer guidance for how to determine the relevance of that theory’s specific cause-and-effect pathway to a particular context. Organizing the theories into seven thematic families enables a close comparison of related theories on democratization and clear distinctions to be drawn among them. The researchers note, however, where ideas overlap across these theory families.
Topic:
Democratization, Political Economy, Politics, Culture, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Political Science, Institutions, and USAID
Political Geography:
North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

96. Comparative Continuismo: Presidential Term Limit Contravention Across Developing Democracies

Author:
Kristin McKie
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Since presidential term limits were (re)adopted into many constitutions during the third wave of democratization, 207 presidents across Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia have reached the end of their terms in office. Of these, 30% have attempted to contravene term limits whereas 70% have stepped down in compliance with tenure rules. Furthermore, of the presidents who have attempted to alter tenure restrictions, some have succeeded in fully abolishing term limits, others have only managed a one-term extension, while a minority have failed in their bids to secure any additional terms in office. What explains these divergent trajectories? On the basis of a series of statistical analyses, I argue that trends in electoral competition over time are the best predictor of the range of term limit contravention outcomes across the board, with the least competitive elections permitting full term limit abolition and the most competitive elections saving off attempts at altering executive tenure rules. Furthermore, results show that failed contravention attempts are true borderline cases, rather than instances gross miscalculations of success by the president and her party, in that they feature less competitive elections than non-attempt cases but more competitive elections than successful contravention cases. These findings suggest a linkage between political uncertainty and constitutional stability more generally.
Topic:
Democratization, Democracy, Institutions, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Asia, and Latin America

97. Democratization in Tunisia and Elite Theory

Author:
M. Hüseyin Mercan and M. Tahir Kilavuz
Publication Date:
10-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
This study focuses on democratization process in Tunisia since January 14th, 2011, the date President Zine el Abidine Ben Ali left the country. The article examines democratization and normalization process of Tunisia as a starting point of the Arab Uprisings through the conceptual framework of elite choice theory. The theory postulates that if softliner regime and opposition elites cooperate, democratization process succeeds. Based upon this assumption, this paper seeks to answer how it was possible for Tunisia to follow a more successful transition path when compared to the other countries in the region through the steps and policies implemented by the representatives of the leading softliner actors in the Tunisian regime and opposition.
Topic:
Democratization, Politics, Arab Spring, Transition, and Elites
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Tunisia

98. Elections et notabilité en Iran: Une analyse du scrutin législatif de 2016 dans quatre circonscriptions (Elections and notability in Iran: Analyzing the 2016 legislative vote in four wards)

Author:
Fariba Abdelkhah
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:
Elections have been trivialized in Iran. They allow for the expression of diversity, in particular ethnical and denominational, of historical regional identities, and prove the growing professionalization of political life. Paradoxically, such professionalization withdraws the Republic away into the levels of family, parenthood, autochthony, and even neighborhoods or devotional sociability, which are all institutions that instill a feeling of proximity, solidarity, communion; close to the notion of asabiyat. As the saying goes, the Islamic Republic has become a « parentocracy » (tâyefehsâlâri). The country’s industrial development isn’t at odds with such ponderousness since it lies on a web of very small family businesses. The analysis of the 2016 legislative elections in four wards reveals how important the issue of property is in political life, indivisible as it is of the various particularistic consciences. The connections with notables are still there, revealing lines of continuity with the old regime as well as longstanding agrarian conflicts that have not been erased by the Revolution and that are being kept alive through contemporary elections.
Topic:
Democratization, Politics, Sociology, Governance, Elections, Borders, Networks, and Identities
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

99. Regards sur l’Eurasie - L’année politique 2016

Author:
Anne De Tinguy, Bayram Balci, François Dauceé, Laure Delcour, Tatiana Kastouéva-Jean, Aude Merlin, Xavier Richet, Kathy Rousselet, and Julien Vercueil
Publication Date:
02-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:
Looking into Eurasia : the year in politics provides some keys to understand the events and phenomena that have left their imprint on a region that has undergone major mutation since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991: the post-soviet space. With a cross-cutting approach that is no way claims to be exhaustive, this study seeks to identify the key drivers, the regional dynamics and the underlying issues at stake
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Corruption, Crime, Democratization, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Politics, Sovereignty, War, International Security, Regional Integration, and State
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, Caucasus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Belarus, and European Union

100. How Is SDF Dealing with Preparations for the Battle for Deir Ezzor?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
08-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
The so-called Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) is making steady progress on the ground in Raqqa, ISIS’ main stronghold in Syria. The alliance of militias recently announced that they retook 70% of the city from the terrorist group following a successful plan to divide the city into an eastern and western zone and storm the city from both sides. The SDF militants advancing from the eastern and western parts of the city linked up for the first time on August 11 prevent- ing ISIS from reaching the Euphrates River and keeping its fighters with civilians who remain besieged by both groups.
Topic:
Democratization, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria