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1. Regulating after Brexit

Author:
Joël Reland
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
Deregulation was at the heart of the Conservative vision of Brexit. Boris Johnson negotiated a Brexit deal which gave Great Britain significant freedom to diverge from EU rules and regulations, promising to make the UK ‘the best regulated economy in the world’. This report examines the extent to which the UK has made use of its ‘Brexit freedoms’, finding that there has been very little meaningful divergence from the EU. It identifies the key reasons for this lack of divergence: trade frictions, political complexities, limited state capacity and a lack of strategy. The report then analyses the change in regulatory approach under the current government. It finds that, unlike its predecessors, this government is willing to align with EU rules to remove existing trade barriers and to avoid new ‘passive divergence’ where EU rule changes create divergence by default. Yet, at the same time, the government is keen to use deregulation to boost growth and to build trade ties with the United States. This report identifies a potential conflict between these aims and its EU regulatory agenda, and argues that the UK needs a clear strategy to ensure its multiple regulatory objectives do not undermine one another.
Topic:
European Union, Regulation, Economy, Brexit, and Deregulation
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

2. The Brexit Files: from referendum to reset

Author:
UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
For the past decade, UK in a Changing Europe has provided impartial, research-based analysis on a number of issues, but most particularly on UK-EU relations. Since before the 2015 General Election, we have evaluated those relations, traced and explained the tortuous Brexit process, and attempted to assess the impact that Brexit has had on the country. This report brings together some of the best scholars working on these issues to consider a number of these questions on the 5th anniversary of the UK ceasing to be a member of the European Union.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Elections, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

3. Shocking a CEO: Economic disintegration and executive compensation in manufacturing and services firms

Author:
Merchan Federico and Holger Görg
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
This paper uses the Brexit referendum in 2016 as a quasi-natural experiment to estimate the effect of an exogenous negative shock to globalization on executive compensation for German companies listed in the DAX and MDAX stock indices. We show that it matters whether they work for firms exporting goods or services. The main results indicate that executive compensation in firms operating in sectors that export services was negatively affected, in particular through lower variable compensation. On the contrary, executives of firms that operate in sectors exporting goods were not negatively affected overall, though they experienced a compositional change (from bonuses to equity payments). Sectoral regressions suggest that manufacturing firms redirected successfully exports from the UK to other relevant trade partners, while this was not the case in the service sector.
Topic:
Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Brexit, and Services
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and Germany

4. Mind the Gap! Small State Influence within the EU during the Brexit Process: The Case of Slovakia

Author:
Sedanur Yıldız
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
The United Kingdom has been seen as a balancing element for small states to prevent big states from gaining hegemony in the EU, especially Franco-German. The decision, which was stated to withdraw the UK from the EU with a referendum in 2016, has reawakened the concern of small states. Inevitably, member states have been affected by the outcome of this decision, even though in a different dimension. The Brexit negotiations preserved the dominance of the EU interests so as not to create a chain effect among the other members based on Article 50, which was applied for the first time. In contrast, the EU’s implementation of immigration policies has mainly led to the strengthening of anti-EU groups in the member states. Since Central and Eastern European countries are the first boundaries of migration waves, anti-immigration movements are felt in those countries’ political and social spheres. Slovakia faced the Brexit decision at the first Council Presidency after becoming a member of the EU. On the other hand, the Presidency’s agenda was not overshadowed by Brexit and focused on the predetermined road map. For this reason, the Council Presidency of Slovakia had not been subject to the shocking effect of any crisis agenda and was relatively moderate. With the immigration policies, which include the general interests of the EU, there was no progress in the asylum and migration title as the point of view of Slovakia is not very compatible. This article deals with the Brexit process and its impact on Slovakia. The main question of the study is how small states fill in the gap that Brexit might cause and whether small states can take the initiative for the future of the EU, which is discussed in the case of Slovakia.
Topic:
European Union, Brexit, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and Slovakia

5. Migration to the UK after Brexit: policy, politics and public opinion

Author:
UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
Immigration, while far less salient than it was in 2016, is becoming a key political and policy issue again. This report not only analyses what has changed in terms of both outcomes and public opinion but considers how a future government might respond to the issue of migration, and the kinds of tradeoffs they will have to address. The report, which brings together authors from British Future, the Institute for Government, the Migration Observatory, the Social Market Foundation, and the KCL Policy Institute, among others, provides a comprehensive review of changes in policy, outcomes, and public opinion that have reshaped the landscape. The report shows the next government faces a number of challenges as the large post-Covid spike in arrivals has pushed immigration to the top of the political agenda again. Numbers peaked at the end of 2022, with 1.15 million long-term international migrants (those planning to stay at least a year) arriving in the UK over the previous 12 months, although net migration is likely to fall very sharply over the course of 2024. A new model for ‘humanitarian migration’ has emerged in the years since Brexit, with large inflows of migrants fleeing conflict in Ukraine and political oppression in Hong Kong. With a range of expert contributors, the report looks ahead at the choices for the next government, covering integration, asylum, the role of AI in helping us understand public views on immigration, humanitarian migration routes, student migration, economic migration, the legacy of the Windrush scandal, and much more.
Topic:
Migration, Politics, Public Opinion, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

6. UK trade 2024

Author:
Jonathan Portes, Sarah Hall, and Stephen Hunsaker
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
UK trade has, since the 2016 referendum, become a hotly debated subject. Which is not to say that it is simply a Brexit story; the uncertainties currently shaping UK trade are far from unique to the UK. Supply chain disruption associated with international conflicts, and a geo-political environment that is generally less conducive to trade, are impacting trade globally. In the immediate years following Brexit, trade data was complicated by the Covid-19 pandemic and a significant rise in global energy prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 2023 data released by the Office for National Statistics provides one of the first opportunities to assess the UK’s post-Brexit trade performance in detail. This report uses these data to set out the key recent trends in UK trade, outline where uncertainties lie and what the policy implications are.
Topic:
Brexit, Trade, COVID-19, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

7. UK-EU foreign, security and defence co-operation

Author:
Joelle Grogan, Jannike Wachowiak, and Richard Whitman
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
With an election looming in the UK, war raging in Ukraine, and the prospect of another Trump presidency in the United States, the possible evolution of the foreign and security policy relationship between the UK and EU has taken on additional salience. The response to Russia’s war on Ukraine has shown that global events can increase UK-EU cooperation on foreign policy. However, while such major events could in future reinforce the sense of the shared challenges faced by the EU and the UK, they may not be sufficient to propel the EU and the UK towards a truly bespoke security and defence agreement. This new report highlights how Labour and the Conservatives differ in their approach to foreign policy with the EU, and what this could mean for the future relationship. It finds that the EU has well-established models for relationships with third countries for cooperation on foreign and security policy. None of these, however, seem appropriate for a country with the foreign policy and military heft of the UK. This in-depth study of UK-EU relations finds that there is scope for a new relationship, but the EU sees the ball as being ‘in the UK’s court’ to push for closer cooperation. It finds that while the EU is likely to welcome further cooperation on foreign policy and crisis management, it is developing a defence industrial strategy focussed on single market members and Ukraine. A bespoke deal involving UK and EU defence industries therefore will encounter significant hurdles.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

8. Brexit and the state

Author:
Jill Rutter and Joël Reland
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
In 2019 Boris Johnson won an election promising to ‘get Brexit done’. Yet while the broad outlines of the UK’s long-term relationship with the EU may have been settled, ministers and officials are still grappling with the new demands Brexit has placed on the British state. This report assesses how, and how far, the UK state has adapted to Brexit. It examines how Brexit has changed the size and shape of the state, the new tasks, functions and policies it has to manage, and the impact on its relationships with key stakeholders. The report considers the degree to which policies and practice are now settled, with the right resources in place, and with the policy direction clear and roles and responsibilities well understood. It is based in part on interviews with people inside and outside government. The report finds a lack of strategic vision of what post-Brexit policymaking should look like, and that creating the post-Brexit state is still very much a work in progress.
Topic:
Government, Governance, Brexit, and Devolution
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

9. UK-EU Divergence Tracker Q4 2023

Author:
Joël Reland
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
This edition of UK in a Changing Europe’s UK-EU Regulatory Divergence Tracker, covers developments from October 2023 to January 2024. The Regulatory Divergence Trackers provide an overview of where and how the UK has used its regulatory freedoms to diverge from EU regulation. It identifies and analyses the most significant cases of divergence between the UK and EU which have taken place since Brexit. It explains what the changes are, what impact they are having, and likely further consequences. In the Q4 2023 edition, the tracker finds nine cases of active divergence (where the UK, or some part of it, changes its rules); ten of passive divergence (where the EU changes its rules and the UK, or some part of it, does not follow); two of procedural divergence (where policy does not diverge but the processes for managing it do); and four of active alignment (where the UK takes steps to align more closely with EU rules, systems or programmes). Key developments on the UK-side include bills to ban the export of live animals and amend the UK’s GDPR regime; a new financial services agreement with Switzerland; and the use of secondary legislation to amend the EU-derived working time regulations and cap on bankers’ bonuses. The EU has brought forward some notable measures to increase the burden on businesses in the name of upholding labour and environmental protections.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, European Union, Regulation, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

10. The UK in a Changing Europe guide to UK-EU relations

Author:
UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
The 2019 election was meant to ‘get Brexit done’. But, five years on, Brexit matters as much as ever. Its economic effects are only just becoming clear. We are still grappling with various outstanding issues, ranging from Gibraltar to border controls to implementing new arrangements in Northern Ireland. There are deadlines in the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) which means aspects of the relationship must be renegotiated. EU rules and regulations continue to have implications for UK businesses and consumers. And the UK government is keen to ‘reset’ relations and add new areas of cooperation. Relations with the EU may not have figured much in the recent election, but it will continue to be an important area of public policy for the foreseeable future. This guide is intended as a snapshot of where we have got to with Brexit and what the prospects are for UK-EU relations. It provides a short, accessible assessment of what Brexit has meant for the UK and what options the current government has in terms of ‘resetting’ its relationship with Brussels.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Elections, European Union, Brexit, and Trade
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and Northern Ireland

11. UK Trade Tracker Q3 2024

Author:
Stephen Hunsaker
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
The UK in a Changing Europe trade tracker focuses on three key areas: UK trade and its performance relative to historical data; UK trade with the EU and what has changed since Brexit; and UK trade in a global context and how it compares to the G7. This tracker reviews the first half of 2024 using ONS and OECD data. Following the election on 4 July, this data provides a final look at what the now-departed Conservative government achieved with its ‘Brexit freedoms’ on trade, and the situation the incoming Labour government has inherited. In this edition, we examine UK goods and services trade as a percentage of GDP as well as trade trends in the first two quarters of 2024. We then break down the data by goods trade with the EU and non- EU countries; exploring whether the previously puzzling trends of declining non-EU trade and stable EU trade continue to defy Brexit expectations. Additionally, we analyse UK total trade by country and region, including the top 10 UK trade partners, and how trade has changed over the past two quarters compared to the last few years. Lastly, we look at how UK trade fares when compared to its counterparts in the G7.
Topic:
Elections, European Union, Economy, Brexit, and Trade
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

12. The state of public opinion: 2023

Author:
Tim Bale, Matthew Blayney, Rosie Campbell, Leonardo Carella, and John Curtice
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
A lot has changed since Boris Johnson celebrated ‘smashing’ the 2019 election. Since then, we’ve faced a global pandemic, two wars, and spiralling inflation and interest rates. Britain has lived through a tumultuous period. The same period saw Labour choose a new leader, whilst the Conservatives elected two. ‘Levelling up’ became the latest buzzword. ‘Partygate’ was followed by a series of allegations about impropriety at the top of government. Nineteen by-elections took place, for reasons ranging from resignations to recall petitions. As the cost-of-living crisis worsened, voter concern about the economy rocketed, whilst interest in Brexit declined. As we approach the next general election, understanding what the public makes of these developments, and how opinion and voting behaviour has shifted since December 2019, is crucial. This new UK in a Changing Europe report brings together over 45 of the UK’s top public opinion experts. They analyse both short and long-term trends that have shaped public attitudes and voting behaviour and will continue to do so in the run up to the next general election and beyond. The 36 contributions cover political parties, the four nations, key policy issues, voting behaviour and Brexit.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Elections, Brexit, and Voting Behavior
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

13. Exploring ‘Bregret’: public attitudes to Brexit, seven years on

Author:
Ines Wittke, James Frayne, Seb Wride, and Sophie Stowers
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
Brexit refuses to go away. Over seven years since the referendum, and over three and a half since the UK finally left the European Union, the issue continues to generate headlines and spark furious debate. One reason for this is a sense that public opinion is still evolving. There has been much talk of ‘Brexit regret’ among Leave voters. Given this, Public First and UK in a Changing Europe decided to talk to Leave voters to hear from them what they thought. In a survey carried out in May and June 2023 and a series of focus groups held between May and September, a series of questions were posed to them about what they think about Brexit, how it has gone, whether they have changed their minds and what they think the future holds. This report describes the findings. DOWNLOAD THE REPORT
Topic:
Politics, Public Opinion, European Union, Brexit, and Society
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

14. UK trade tracker Q3 2023

Author:
Stephen Hunsaker
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
The UK in a Changing Europe trade tracker is now being produced quarterly and in a new format. The new format trade tracker will focus on three key areas: UK trade and its performance relative to historical data; UK trade in a global context and how it compares to the G7; and finally, newsworthy developments which have occurred within trade in the last quarter. In this quarter’s edition, the trade tracker looks at how UK trade measures compare to 2019 as well as the proportion of total UK trade made up of trade with the EU. In addition, it looks at the UK’s trade balance and trade openness compared to the G7. Lastly, the tracker summarises the India-UK free trade agreement that has been in the works for the past few years, considering whether it is close to signing and what impact it might have on UK trade, as well as what elements are hotly debated.
Topic:
Economy, Brexit, and Trade
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

15. The investment gap: the UK’s efforts to replace the European Investment Bank

Author:
Peter Jurkovic and Stephen Hunsaker
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
Following Brexit, the UK lost access to funding from the European Investment Bank. In this report, Stephen Hunsaker and Peter Jurkovic detail the impact this has had on the UK development finance landscape. The report outlines not only the role that development banks play in providing longer term financing for projects the private sector might be reluctant to support, but also the specific role the European Investment Bank played in infrastructure investments in the UK prior to 2020. It also explores the potential and ongoing implications of a lack of access to that investment despite the existence of a number of UK based banks intended to fill the gap.
Topic:
European Union, Finance, Economy, Brexit, Investment, Banking, and European Investment Bank
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

16. Policy landscape 2023

Author:
Ben Zaranko, Jonathan Portes, Mike Brewer, Paul Cheshire, and Carole Willis
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
What are the public policy challenges confronting the UK? What plans do the parties have for addressing them? To what extent are these plans fit for purpose? As Parliament returns from its summer recess, Full Fact and UK in a Changing Europe have partnered to produce a series of evidence led, research-based assessments of the key issues that politicians will confront. To do this, we brought together a group of leading experts from respected institutions including the Health Foundation, the Institute for Fiscal Studies, and the Royal United Services Institute. We asked each of them to consider, based on the findings of their own research, the challenges the country faces in their area of expertise, the immediate and longer-term issues politicians will need to address, and the potential implications of any choices they might make. We selected the issues based on the Ipsos issues index, and added security, defence and foreign affairs, which did not figure amongst the public’s priorities in July of this year. The intention of the collection is to inform and not persuade. Each article in this collection is the responsibility of its author.
Topic:
Climate Change, Education, Health, Politics, European Union, Economy, Brexit, Economic Growth, Public Policy, Fiscal Policy, Housing, and Standard of Living
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

17. UK-EU relations tracker: April – June 2023

Author:
Cleo Davies and Jannike Wachowiak
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
This is the second edition of the UKICE UK-EU Relations Tracker, covering developments in relations between the UK and EU and between the UK and EU member states from April to June 2023. This edition looks at key developments in the relationship since the formal adoption of the Windsor Framework on 24 March 2023 which had raised hopes for a reset in relations. Whilst some progress has been made within the framework of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), other areas remain stalled.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Brexit, and Trade
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

18. UK-EU regulatory divergence tracker: eighth edition

Author:
Joël Reland
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
UK in a Changing Europe’s series of regulatory divergence trackers provide an overview of where and how the UK has used its newfound regulatory freedoms to diverge from EU regulation. It identifies and analyses the most significant cases of divergence between the UK and EU which have taken place since Brexit. It explains what the changes are, what impact they are having, and likely further consequences. This is the eighth edition of the UK in a Changing Europe’s regulatory divergence tracker, covering developments from April to July 2023. There are eleven cases of active divergence (where the UK, or some part of it, changes its rules); eight of passive divergence (where the EU changes its rules and the UK, or some part of it, does not follow); two of passive convergence (where the EU takes steps which align with UK rules); three of managed divergence (where the UK and EU make joint efforts to manage the implications of divergence); and one of internal divergence (changes in rules between different parts of the UK).
Topic:
European Union, Regulation, Brexit, and Divergence
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

19. UK-EU regulatory divergence tracker: seventh edition

Author:
Joël Reland
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
UK in a Changing Europe’s series of regulatory divergence trackers provide an overview of where and how the UK has used its newfound regulatory freedoms to diverge from EU regulation. It identifies and analyses the most significant cases of divergence between the UK and EU which have taken place since Brexit. It explains what the changes are, what impact they are having, and likely further consequences. This is the seventh edition of UK in a Changing Europe’s regulatory divergence tracker, covering developments since January 2023. There are seven cases of active divergence (where the UK, or some part of it, changes its rules); two of active convergence (where the UK, or some part of it, aligns to EU rules); 17 of passive divergence (where the EU changes its rules and the UK, or some part of it, does not follow); and one of internal divergence (changes in rules between different parts of the UK). In addition, the Windsor Framework is significant case of ‘managed divergence’: a UK-EU agreement which alters the regulatory border between Great Britain (GB) and Northern Ireland (NI), as created by the Protocol.
Topic:
European Union, Regulation, Brexit, and Divergence
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

20. UK-EU relations tracker: first edition

Author:
Cleo Davies and Sophie Stowers
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
This new UK in a Changing Europe tracker provides an overview of the state of relations between the United Kingdom and the European Union. The first edition, which covers January to March 2023, highlights the thawing in relations between the UK and the EU that has taken place during this period in the context of the agreement of the Windsor Framework in late February 2023. Released quarterly, the UK-EU relations tracker will assess relations between the UK and EU as well as relationships between the UK and EU member states. It will also highlight developments in British politics which may affect the UK-EU relationship, and internal dynamics within the EU that might shape its approach to the relationship with the United Kingdom.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

21. Immigration after Brexit: where are we going?

Author:
Anand Menon
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
Immigration was a key, if not the key issue in the referendum of 2016. The last few years have seen the biggest shakeup in the UK migration system in at least half a century, coinciding with record levels of immigration across all the main routes – work, students and refugees. This report explores what has happened to immigration, immigration policy and public attitudes towards immigration since the Brexit vote. It examines the way in which the UK government has reacted to the ending of free movement, and explores the impact of new policies on immigration levels. It represents a state-of-the-art analysis of what has happened, where we have got to, and what might transpire in the future.
Topic:
Migration, Public Opinion, Economy, Brexit, and Immigration Policy
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

22. UK-EU regulatory divergence tracker: sixth edition

Author:
UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
UK in a Changing Europe’s series of regulatory divergence trackers provide an overview of where and how the UK has used its newfound regulatory freedoms to diverge from EU regulation. It identifies and analyses the most significant cases of divergence between the UK and EU which have taken place since Brexit. It explains what the changes are, what impact they are having, and likely further consequences. This is the sixth edition of the divergence tracker, covering developments since October 2022. There are six cases of active divergence (where the UK or some part of it changes its rules), 13 of passive divergence (where the EU changes its rules and the UK, or some part of it, does not follow), two of active alignment (where the UK and EU take the same regulatory steps in parallel), and five of delayed divergence (where either side postpones an upcoming case of divergence). This edition of the tracker finds that the UK has engaged in less active divergence over the past quarter. This is due in part to political instability, but also to Prime Minister Sunak’s emphasis on calming the markets and projecting a wider sense of political stability. The new administration has signalled its ambition to reform EU legislation, though in a more targeted manner than under the two preceding premierships.
Topic:
European Union, Regulation, Brexit, and Divergence
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

23. Income shocks, political support and voting behaviour

Author:
Richard Upward and Peter Wright
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
We provide new evidence on the effects of economic shocks on political support, voting behaviour and political opinions over the last 25 years. We exploit a sudden, large and long-lasting shock in the form of job loss and trace out its impact on individual political outcomes for up to 10 years after the event. The availability of detailed information on households before and after the job loss event allows us to reweight a comparison group to closely mimic the job losers in terms of their observable characteristics, pre-existing political support and voting behaviour. We find consistent, long-lasting but quantitatively small effects on support and votes for the incumbent party, and short-lived effects on political engagement. We find limited impact on the support for fringe or populist parties. In the context of Brexit, opposition to the EU was much higher amongst those who lost their jobs, but this was largely due to pre-existing differences which were not exacerbated by the job loss event itself.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, European Union, Brexit, Income, and Voting Behavior
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

24. The Conservative Party After Brexit with Professor Tim Bale

Author:
Tim Bale and Carolyn Quinn
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
The Conservative Party can lay convincing claim to being the world's most successful political party, not least because it is also one of the most adaptable, often appearing to do and say pretty much whatever it takes to win. But has it now taken things too far? Since the UK voted to leave the EU back in 2016, the Tories have transformed themselves from a mainstream, centre-right party to one built upon a combination of radical right-wing populism, free-market fundamentalism, and fiscal constraint. Can the party survive in its current unstable form? Or will it be blown apart by its contradictions, its factions, and the competition between future leadership hopefuls? At this launch of his new book on 18 April 2023, 'The Conservative Party After Brexit', the Mile End Institute's very own Professor Tim Bale was in conversation with Carolyn Quinn (the former host of BBC Radio 4's Westminster Hour). They discussed these questions, charted the fall-out from the bombshell Brexit referendum and the chaotic premierships of Theresa May, Boris Johnson, and Liz Truss.
Topic:
European Union, Brexit, Political Parties, Boris Johnson, Conservative Party, Theresa May, Rishi Sunak, and Nigel Farage
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

25. Why Origin Matters in Trade Data*

Author:
Pierre Cotterlaz and Vincent Vicard
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
Different reporting standards are applied to determine the country of origin of trade flows in existing international trade databases, altering the geography of trade. We illustrate this issue using two extensively used trade databases, UN-Comtrade and IMF-DoTS and show that it has important implications when evaluating the impact of trade policies using a gravity framework. We provide evidence that IMF-DoTs applies different reporting standards for intra- and extra-EU trade from 1999 onwards. Such discrepancies generate a (significant) upward bias in the estimated impact of RTA, the EU and the euro area on trade. Reporting standards also differ across declaring countries in UN-Comtrade. We show that it inflates the estimated impact of Brexit on trade.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Brexit, Statistics, and Trade
Political Geography:
Global Focus

26. The state of public opinion: 2023

Author:
UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
A lot has changed since Boris Johnson celebrated ‘smashing’ the 2019 election. Since then, we’ve faced a global pandemic, two wars, and spiralling inflation and interest rates. Britain has lived through a tumultuous period. The same period saw Labour choose a new leader, whilst the Conservatives elected two. ‘Levelling up’ became the latest buzzword. ‘Partygate’ was followed by a series of allegations about impropriety at the top of government. Nineteen by-elections took place, for reasons ranging from resignations to recall petitions. As the cost-of-living crisis worsened, voter concern about the economy rocketed, whilst interest in Brexit declined. As we approach the next general election, understanding what the public makes of these developments, and how opinion and voting behaviour has shifted since December 2019, is crucial. This new UK in a Changing Europe report brings together over 45 of the UK’s top public opinion experts. They analyse both short and long-term trends that have shaped public attitudes and voting behaviour and will continue to do so in the run up to the next general election and beyond. The 36 contributions cover political parties, the four nations, key policy issues, voting behaviour and Brexit.
Topic:
Politics, Public Opinion, Elections, Brexit, and Polls
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

27. El Papel de un Reino Unido Post-brexit y su Nuevo Rol en el Africa Subsahariana

Author:
Juan Ramón Alvarez Cobelas
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Los políticos británicos del Reino Unido tras el ajustado triunfo en el Brexit prometieron a su opinión pública y a los dirigentes africanos que les quisieron oir, que una vez liberados del yugo político-económico que imponía la Unión Europea, las relaciones entre el mismo Reino Unido y los Estados africanos se abriría una nueva era de prosperidad mutua entre el mismo Reino Unido y el África subsahariana hasta el punto de convertirse en unas relaciones de igual a igual .El artículo trata de demostrar que ha ocurrido justamente lo contrario. El artículo examina los diferentes instrumentos de “cooperación” bien unilaterales, bien colectivos, por ejemplo, el “Compact with Africa, para llegar a la conclusión que los británcos perpetúan un cierto neocolonialismo maquillado.
Topic:
European Union, Brexit, and Colonialism
Political Geography:
Africa, United Kingdom, and Sub-Saharan Africa

28. Post-Brexit EU–UK cooperation on migration and asylum: How to live apart, together

Author:
Alberto-Horst Neidhardt
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
The UK’s withdrawal from the EU has created a policy, legal and operational vacuum in migration and asylum matters which undermines the interests of both sides. There is no more binding framework which defines responsibility for asylum seekers and facilitates transfers between the EU and the UK. Brexit also made it harder to devise and implement effective anti-smuggling strategies with European partners. Despite these gaps, a post-Brexit cooperation agreement is not on the horizon, with structural reforms pursued by each side reflecting conflicting priorities and a growing political disconnect. Following the 2020 proposals of the New Pact on Migration and Asylum, EU member states are still negotiating a mandatory responsibility-sharing mechanism. Meanwhile, in April 2022, the UK overhauled its asylum and immigration law, undercutting safeguards for asylum seekers reaching the country irregularly. The same month, the UK government signed a deal with Rwanda to deport all asylum seekers arriving via the Channel – a move even the European Commission has criticised. Recent post-Brexit tensions over other policy areas, most prominently the Northern Ireland Protocol, have reduced mutual trust to a historic minimum. This makes an ambitious and comprehensive agreement over asylum and migration matters an unlikely prospect for the time being. Yet, as neighbours, the EU and the UK will continue to depend on each other to pursue their respective policy objectives in migration and asylum. So, despite living separately and facing numerous unresolved tensions, the EU and the UK can and should pursue a post-Brexit cooperation framework in these matters. Otherwise, they will both be worse off. As a first step, the two sides should focus on rebuilding trust. This can be achieved by pursuing less contentious goals within immediate reach, such as enhanced anti-smuggling efforts, while also diffusing political tensions across the board. Once an atmosphere of sincere cooperation is restored, as a second step, the EU and the UK should define a broader and more ambitious partnership. Safe and legal channels from the EU to the UK should be re-established. At the same time, equitable solutions for facilitating the return of third-country nationals from the UK to the EU, in full respect of procedural safeguards, should also be found. Although reciprocity would have to be at the heart of this new arrangement, the EU and the UK should go beyond a transactional approach, particularly by strengthening protection pathways and burden-sharing solutions, including with third countries, in line with their international commitments. The European Commission should take the lead in the negotiation of a post-Brexit EU–UK cooperation framework. This would allow the EU to speak with one voice and pursue clear and coherent objectives across the different policy areas concerned. The newly established EU–UK Parliamentary Partnership Assembly should also be involved in the negotiations, helping to democratise the process and achieve a more balanced relationship in the interests of both sides.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Migration, European Union, Brexit, and Asylum
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

29. Understanding the Red Wall: Politics and identity in the new electoral battlegrounds

Author:
Paula Surridge and Alan Wager
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
The 2019 general election gave birth to a new term for understanding electoral geography, the Red Wall. This report, ‘Understanding the Red Wall: Politics and identity in the new electoral battlegrounds’, focusses on a series of focus groups conducted by Ipsos on behalf of UK in a Changing Europe with voters in seats across Yorkshire and Humberside, that had either been won by the Conservatives in 2019 or held by Labour with a significantly reduced majority.
Topic:
Politics, Public Opinion, Brexit, and Society
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

30. British politics after Brexit

Author:
Anand Menon, Paula Surridge, and Alan Wager
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
Drawing on the expertise of over 40 of the UK’s top experts on public opinion, British Politics after Brexit provides a comprehensive overview of public opinion in the UK. The landscape of British politics is as complicated as it has ever been. But if you are looking to navigate it then this report – exploring the public’s views across party politics, public policy and the UK’s constitutional future – is a good place as any to start.
Topic:
Politics, Public Opinion, Brexit, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

31. Constitution and Governance in the UK

Author:
Anand Menon, Jill Rutter, and Sarah Overton
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
The UK constitution and system of governance have recently been subjected to unprecedented strain. Brexit and Covid-19, in conjunction with the governing style adopted by the Johnson administration, have raised profound questions as to whether the norms and conventions that form the basis of the UK’s uncodified constitution are still fit for purpose. These are the issues that are brought together in this report, in which 41 leading scholars assess the impacts of Brexit, Covid-19 and the Johnson government on our constitution and system of governance. They discuss whether these arrangements, that have evolved over decades if not centuries, are sufficiently robust and fit for the purpose of governing a diverse and complex UK.
Topic:
Governance, Constitution, Brexit, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

32. UK-EU regulatory divergence tracker: third edition

Author:
Joël Reland, Jill Rutter, and Anand Menon
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
This is the third edition of the UK in a Changing Europe’s UK-EU regulatory divergence tracker, covering 27 cases of divergence since December 2021. There are fourteen cases of active divergence (where the UK – or some part of it – takes steps to move away from retained EU law), ten of passive divergence (where the EU legislates and the UK – or some part – does not follow), and three of procedural divergence (where the UK has to introduce new systems to manage policy absent substantive divergence). There are also eleven cases with an additional ‘internal impact’ label, to indicate where UK-EU divergence is leading either to divergence in regulation between different parts of the UK, or has some other impact on the operation of relations between the four UK governments.
Topic:
European Union, Regulation, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

33. Post-Brexit imports, supply chains, and the effect on consumer prices

Author:
Jan David Bakker, Nikhil Datta, Josh de Lyon, Luisa Opitz, and Dilan Yang
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
This report documents the decrease in imports and shows how the patterns of imports vary across sectors following the UK’s departure from the Single Market and Customs Unit at the end of 2020. The authors, Jan David Bakker, Nikhil Datta, Josh De Lyon, Luisa Opitz, and Dilan Yang, focus on comparisons between imports from the EU and imports from non-EU countries. Some products, such as fats, oils, and waxes, experienced a sizeable decrease in trade volumes with EU countries compared to those of non-EU countries in January 2021. Other products, such as minerals, experienced minimal deviation in imports from the EU versus non-EU. We also document that the timing of import changes varies across products: in some cases, the deviation occurs pre-TCA, and there is some evidence of stockpiling; in other cases, the changes only occur post-TCA, and can be either short term or persistent. The fall in imports from the EU will affect the UK economy through its impact on supply chains. Two-thirds of international trade is in products used as inputs to production. We show that imports from the EU fell for products that are used as inputs to production in many industries in the UK. For some sectors such as agriculture, fishing, and car manufacturing, there is evidence that imported inputs began to be sourced from non-EU countries pre-TCA. For others, including vegetable oil, animal fats, prepared animal feeds, and pharmaceuticals, the adjustments occurred post-TCA. Evidence suggests that increased access to intermediate inputs can boost productivity, so a reversal is likely to cause a fall in productivity. Imports also provide cheaper goods to consumers, as well as a wider variety of choice. Focussing on food products, we show that the drop in imports after Brexit caused an increase in prices. Products that were more heavily reliant on imports from the EU increased in price following the election of Boris Johnson in 2019, pre-TCA and then increased further post-TCA. This report therefore shows that changes in imports of goods from the EU have affected UK firms’ supply chains. Part of this change is driven by the adjustment costs incurred as part of the new trading relationship and is likely to be short term, but another part is likely to reflect a long-term increase in the cost of inputs from the EU, which make up a sizable contribution of total imports. This could have a knock-on effect for consumers who will face higher prices, and for workers whose jobs will be affected by adjustments in the supply chain.
Topic:
European Union, Brexit, Trade, Imports, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

34. UK-EU regulatory divergence tracker: fourth edition

Author:
UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
UK in a Changing Europe’s series of regulatory divergence trackers provide an overview of where and how the UK has used its newfound regulatory freedoms to diverge from EU regulation. It identifies and analyses the most significant cases of divergence between the UK and EU which have taken place since Brexit. It explains what the changes are, what impact they are having, and likely further consequences. This is the fourth edition of the tracker, covering changes which have taken place since March 2022.
Topic:
European Union, Regulation, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

35. The Northern Ireland Protocol Bill: context and consequences

Author:
Catherine Barnard, Joelle Grogan, Katy Hayward, Andrew McCormick, and Jill Rutter
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
The UK government introduced a piece of primary legislation, the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill, in response to concerns over the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland. This report explains some of the context to the Bill, the conditions in which it has emerged and its potential ramifications for Northern Ireland, the UK, the EU, and UK-EU relations. It also considers a number of ways in which the stand-off over the Protocol might be resolved. The report brings together the insights of several experts: Catherine Barnard (University of Cambridge, and UKICE), Joelle Grogan (UKICE), Katy Hayward (Queen’s University Belfast), Andrew McCormick (formerly lead official on Brexit for the Northern Ireland Executive) and Jill Rutter (UKICE).
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Constitution, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and Northern Ireland

36. UK-EU regulatory divergence tracker: fifth edition

Author:
UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
UK in a Changing Europe’s series of regulatory divergence trackers provide an overview of where and how the UK has used its newfound regulatory freedoms to diverge from EU regulation. It identifies and analyses the most significant cases of divergence between the UK and EU which have taken place since Brexit. It explains what the changes are, what impact they are having, and likely further consequences. This is the fifth edition of the tracker, covering changes which have taken place since May 2022. It finds there are 13 cases of active divergence (where the UK or some part of it changes its rules), nine of passive divergence (where the EU changes its rules and the UK does not follow), and three of procedural divergence (changes in the systems for managing pre-existing divergence). In addition, there are two cases of a new category – legal action – where the actions of one side result in the other initiating a legal dispute.
Topic:
European Union, Regulation, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

37. Manufacturing after Brexit

Author:
David Bailey and Ivan Rajic
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
In mid-2020, UK in a Changing Europe published its report on the effects of Brexit on UK manufacturing, and the likely effects after the end of the transition period. The present report is an updated view of where UK manufacturing stands after Brexit. The report finds: The Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) helped avoid tariff barriers. However, non-tariff barriers have returned, and the end of the transition period has brought adverse impacts for UK manufacturing. The TCA does not fully replace the frictionless trade and market integration that existed before it. The main adverse effects have been: administrative barriers to trade (e.g. customs formalities, proving rules-of-origin requirements) disruptions to labour flows, both affecting certain manufacturing sectors directly (e.g. food and drinks) and indirectly harming manufacturing by damaging service sectors (e.g. logistics) that support it. The adverse impacts are for now mainly showing through reduced exports and imports to and from the EU (around 15% less for both, as compared to a no-Brexit scenario), and through some production disruptions. The ongoing conflicts around Northern Ireland probably represent the biggest risk to UK-EU relations, with the potential to affect the entire TCA in case they escalate. Potential benefits from Brexit have yet to be felt: – There has been some redirection of exports towards non-EU countries, but this has not compensated for the reduction in trade with the EU. The UK has signed only two truly new trade agreements, with New Zealand and Australia, the former still only ‘in principle’. Both countries account for a small fraction of total UK trade, and the expected benefits of the trade agreements with them are minor. Trade negotiations with the US are currently stalled. Whether there is more progress on the trade front in the future remains to be seen. If there is more regulatory divergence from the EU going forward, it will become possible to see whether it will bring benefits or disruptions to UK manufacturers. Any benefits that may potentially arise out of Brexit will not happen automatically. The UK needs an active, integrated, and well-funded industrial policy, within a stronger devolution framework, if UK manufacturing is to benefit from future growth opportunities. This is especially the case in the context of net zero, industry 4.0 and levelling up. The impact of Brexit on manufacturing is likely to be most profound in regions in the north and midlands. That in turn will make levelling up more challenging.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Economy, Brexit, Manufacturing, and Trade
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

38. Doing things differently? Policy after Brexit

Author:
UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
Brexit is done, but what does it mean? Doing things differently? Policy after Brexit brings together a number experts in their respective fields to investigate how policy and policymaking have changed in a range of sectors. We asked them to consider how changes so far compare to what was promised before Brexit, and to analyse what changes lie ahead and what their impact might be. Their contributions are divided into three sections: first, those policy areas (trade, immigration, agriculture, fisheries and subsidies) where Brexit compelled the UK to put in place alternative policies. Second, those retaining significant amounts of EU law where the government could think seriously about divergence (financial services, procurement, taxation, consumer protection, environmental policy, energy policy and aviation). A final section considers new or emergent sectors in which both the UK and EU are looking to dip their regulatory toes (climate change and net zero, data and digital, autonomous vehicles and bioscience).
Topic:
Agriculture, Immigration, European Union, Regulation, Brexit, Trade, Fishing, Subsidies, and Policymaking
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

39. An EU border across Britain: Scotland’s borders after independence

Author:
Katy Hayward and Nicola McEwen
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
This report, An EU border across Britain: Scotland’s borders after independence, considers the prospect of an independent Scotland within the European Union, not as a prediction, but to illustrate how Brexit has profoundly changed the context in which independence is contested and could be realised. If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, the Anglo-Scottish border would become not just an international border between Scotland and what remains of the UK, but a new land border between the EU and the UK. Some of the crossborder arrangements for an independent Scotland that had been envisaged in the 2014 referendum would no longer be possible as a result of the UK’s departure from the EU. Because we know what is required by the EU at its external borders, it is possible to outline the border-related ramifications for an independent Scotland with EU membership. Such ramifications centre upon the land border with its closest neighbour.
Topic:
Sovereignty, European Union, Brexit, Borders, Independence, and Referendum
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and Scotland

40. Time for Fresh Thinking on Northern Ireland and Brexit

Author:
David Henig
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
The Good Friday / Belfast Agreement became, with considerable efforts over several years from so many involved, a broadly accepted if never fully stable political framework for Northern Ireland. A year after implementation, the prospect of the Northern Ireland Protocol delivering similar results is diminishing. Instead, there is a risk it entrenches divisions in which all sides believe others, not themselves, must be the ones to compromise most. Such divisions around the Protocol have spread beyond the land and sea borders of Northern Ireland, increasingly overshadowing relationships between the UK and the EU, and the UK and the US. These are not in any of their wider interests. Talk of trade wars in Europe cannot strengthen any economy, while the UK’s diplomatic relationships with the US remain strained. Finding unity on huge questions like Russia-Ukraine becomes harder against this backdrop. To varying degrees, all of the parties involved in the Northern Ireland Protocol discussions were involved in reaching the 1998 Agreement that ended the 30-year period known as ‘the troubles’. Drawing on the lessons from that time and the arrangements they put in place, there is a need for a new political process, outside of technical discussions on trade matters within the Protocol. A new shared endeavour is needed to resolve what otherwise threatens to be a long and damaging Northern Ireland and Brexit stalemate.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Brexit, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and Northern Ireland

41. Mapping banking centres globally since 1970

Author:
Emmanuel Mourlon-Druol
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Brexit and the rise of China as a leading international economic power have revived discussions about the geography of banking centres. This paper analyses the geographical evolution of banking centres since the 1970s, based on a database constructed from a ranking of the top banks in the world created by The Banker magazine, a UK-based monthly publication specialised in international financial affairs. We describe both how the database was created and the ways in which it can be used to inform policy on money and capital markets. We address why the data can be used to proxy the size of International Financial Centres (IFCs) and the methodological limitations it may present. We find that banking consolidations and the evolution of the legal framework are more central to the changing geography of banking centres than economic and financial crises. We also highlight that, despite major shifts in global economic power, leading banking centres are hard to replace.
Topic:
Economy, Brexit, History, Fiscal Policy, and Banking
Political Geography:
Global Focus

42. Brexit and the Future off the European Union

Author:
Simon Glendinning
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
The article explores the conception of European integration and enlargement that was consistently proposed by leading British politicians in the post-War period prior to Brexit. Two basic themes are identified in that conception: first, a clear preference for a project of both integration and enlargement; and second, an equally clear resistance to the formation of a European superstate as the final goal of that project. The article concludes that this characteristically British vision of European integration – the vision of a United Europe of States – is not exclusively British and is unlikely to disappear from the now Britain-free EU
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, European Union, Brexit, and Integration
Political Geography:
Europe

43. Why the Ukraine crisis should push the UK and EU into a tighter embrace on security policy

Author:
Steven Blockmans
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
One of the costs of Brexit is the weakened ability of both the UK and the EU to shape a strong joint response to Russia’s threats to pan-European security. In the standoff over Ukraine, the need for close cross-Channel cooperation is particularly acute for any effective sanctions package negotiated with the US. Yet, post-Brexit relations between the UK and the EU are currently governed by a narrow Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) which does not include a designated chapter on political dialogue and that, barring a handful of exceptions, does not contain any provisions on cooperation on foreign and security matters. Fortunately, the preparatory work undertaken to reach the bilateral accord contains the answer to the question on how trust between the parties can be regained through procedural means. This policy brief highlights the embers of the Brexit bonfire that might be raked up to rekindle the flame of dialogue and cooperation between the UK and the EU in foreign affairs and security policy.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Sanctions, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and Ukraine

44. Britain, Germany, and the Rise of Competitive Virtue Signaling

Author:
Roderick Parkes
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
In 2016, British and German officials were clear: they wanted quickly to put Brexit behind them and cooperate on big ticket items like the international rule of law. Now, in 2022, the pair in fact seem to be competing more than they cooperate. Germany wants to shine in comparison with Britain, and the UK sees advantages for its own standing if Germany falls short. This “competitive virtue signaling” defines Germany and the UK’s post-Brexit rivalry, and – oddly – might lead to tighter relations.
Topic:
European Union, Brexit, Rivalry, Cooperation, and Competition
Political Geography:
Britain, Europe, and Germany

45. The Power of Small EU Member States After Brexit: How Powerful Is the Visegrad Group?

Author:
Thomas Kajanek
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
The power of individual EU Member States has been changing over the past decades as a result of revisions to the voting systems and the enlargements of the European Union. The present article analyses the development of the voting power of individual Member States in the Council of the European Union before and after the withdrawal of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from the European Union. We use the calculation of the standardized Banzhaf power index to calculate the legislative power of the Member States. The calculations recorded in the table point to changes in the weights of national votes caused by Brexit. The article pays special attention to the Visegrad Group, which we define within the European Union as an informal group consisting of four Central European states - the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and the Slovak Republic. The results indicate a significant growth of the voting power in Poland and more moderate growth in the other three Visegrad Group countries which contributes to the shift in the voting equilibrium within the ordinary legislative procedure of the European Union.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, European Union, Brexit, Regional Power, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, Hungary, and Czech Republic

46. Anand Menon: Brexit and beyond report

Author:
Anand Menon
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
Professor Anand Menon explains the need for social science to play a role in informing public and political debates is as great if not greater than ever, now that the UK is embarking on a new course after Brexit.
Topic:
European Union, Brexit, and Trade
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

47. Labor Market Impact of Immigration in the European Union

Author:
Dong-Hee Joe
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
Immigration is one of the factors often considered as the causes of Brexit. Researchers find evidences that regions with more immigrants from the new member states of the European Union (EU hereinafter) in eastern Europe tended to vote more in favor of Brexit in the 2016 referendum. Similar relations between the size of immigrant population and anti-immigration attitudes or far-right voting are found in other richer EU member states. A common explanation for this relation is the concern that immigrants negatively affect the outcome in the host labor market. Immigration is drawing attention in Korea too. Although immigrants' share in population is still substantially smaller in Korea than in the EU, its increase is noticeable. Also, certain industries in Korea are known to be already heavily reliant on immigrant labor. Recently, as entry into the country was tightened due to the COVID-19 pandemic, firms and farms are reported to have faced a disruption in production. This trend of increasing presence of immigrants in population and in the labor market, vis-à-vis the low fertility rate and rapid aging in Korea, is raising interest and concern on the socioeconomic impact of immigration. To offer some reference for the debates related to immigration in Korea, KIEP researchers (Joe et al. 2020 and Joe and Moon 2021) look at the EU, where immigrants' presence was much higher from much earlier on, and where the greater heterogeneity among the immigrants allows for richer analyses. This World Economy Brief presents some of their findings that are salient for Korea.
Topic:
Immigration, European Union, Brexit, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
Britain, Europe, Asia, and Korea

48. Fog in Channel? The Impact of Brexit on EU and UK Foreign Affairs

Author:
Amelia Hadfield and Nicholas Wright
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
The UK’s rejection of any institutionalised relationship with the EU in foreign, security and defence policy (FSDP) is arguably the most noteworthy feature of the post-Brexit dispensation. In a stark reversal in early 2020, the British government abandoned pledges made in the 2019 Political Declaration to ‘establish structured consultation and regular thematic dialogues [that] could contribute to the attainment of common objectives’, including on the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) and the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) (1). This gap was intensified by the absence of any reference to foreign affairs in the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) or the Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy (IR) (2). Indeed, the IR essentially ignores the EU, referring only to British ambitions to remain a lead European defence actor, with a focus on multilateral venues (notably the UN and NATO), bilateral relations and ad hoc groupings. In short, an EU-sized hole now exists in British foreign policy thinking. This matters in London and across Europe. While in the EU, the UK exercised significant influence and leadership in FSDP, its EU membership magnifying its global capacities. In leaving, Sir Simon Fraser, formerly permanent under-secretary in the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO), warned that Brexit represented ‘the biggest shock to [the UK’s] method of international influencing and the biggest structural change to our place in the world since the end of World War Two’ (3). From the EU’s perspective, as observed by High Representative Josep Borrell, ‘with Brexit, nothing gets easier and a lot gets more complicated. How much more complicated depends on the choices that both sides will make’ (4). The choices thus far indicate a rejection of ‘old obligations’ (5) and an essentially transactional relationship that will be ‘structurally adversarial for the foreseeable future’ (6). Nonetheless, Brexit also gives both the UK and the EU a once-in-a-generation opportunity to rethink and reconfigure their approaches to foreign affairs and how they navigate a profoundly changed regional context. To understand the scale of this undertaking, we offer an innovative thematic analysis focused on four ‘Rs’: reputation, responsibility, resources and relevance. Each ‘R’ represents a core element of both sides’ respective foreign policies, offering insights into possible international roles and goals. The four ‘Rs’ also help us identify the main risks and opportunities Brexit encompasses, providing a conceptual symmetry as to how the choices of both the EU and UK might align and impact each other.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

49. Europe after the Brits

Author:
Andrew Duff
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
Andrew Duff argues that the loss of the United Kingdom should prompt serious reflection about the constitutional direction of the European Union. The secession of a member state changes the context of European integration. Brexit leaves the EU weaker, smaller and poorer — but it can and should also spur reform. The EU should aim to have major changes in place by 2029, including treaty revision. The reforms should include: (i) a renegotiation of the Brexit deal leading to a new class of affiliate membership; (ii) completion of the constitutional framework for a fiscal union; (iii) a European Parliament fully legitimated by election from transnational lists; and (iv) a ‘European Security Council’ of defence ministers to span the divide between the EU and NATO. The Conference on the Future of Europe may prove to be a useful democratic experiment. But it is not designed to address the important constitutional challenges that the Union faces. Duff therefore proposes creating an expert reflection group to stimulate the full implementation of the Treaty of Lisbon as well as prepare the way for the next Convention which must be called to amend the EU treaties. More immediately, the reflection group should make proposals to settle the controversial matter of how to elect the new President of the European Commission in 2024.
Topic:
Politics, Reform, European Union, Brexit, and Institutions
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

50. After Brexit: Could bilateral agreements facilitate the free movement of persons?

Author:
Diego Acosta
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
Some of the millions of EU nationals in the UK and British nationals in the EU are already suffering from Brexit’s drastic curtailment of the right to free movement. How can migration now be governed and facilitated between the two parties? Although an EU-wide agreement with the UK that ensures free movement remains the ideal solution, it is currently unrealistic. This calls for an evaluation of possible alternatives. Bilateral agreements should be explored and examined as a possible alternative to an EU-wide agreement with the UK to facilitate and govern cross-border mobility. Various bilateral free movement agreements across Europe show that their use is not only legal but also habitual. They offer flexibility when it comes to the rights of entry, residency and work, as well as other important rights. And they could also be used as a foundation upon which to build an agreement between the EU as a whole and the UK, if not to facilitate the rebuilding of mutual trust. Migration law expert Diego Acosta makes a further case for Spain being the first possible candidate for a post-Brexit bilateral free movement agreement concluded between an EU member state and the UK. Spain is the most important EU destination for British emigrants, and British migrants residing in Spain constitute the latter’s third-largest non-national population. In turn, the UK is the most important migrant destination for Spanish nationals worldwide, who represent the fifth-largest migrant group from the EU. He offers concrete suggestions as to what a bilateral treaty between Spain and the UK could include. In addition, governments of EU member states that have important reciprocal migration flows with the UK, as well as the UK government, should consider the following recommendations when exploring the possibility of adopting bilateral agreements on migration: The negotiating parties should place the rights and interests of both short-term and long-term British and European nationals residing in each other’s territory at the centre stage. In negotiating a possible treaty, both the respective EU member state (e.g. Spain) and the UK should take the pre-Brexit status quo as the departing point. The status of mobile nationals could be improved beyond that enjoyed by EU citizens pre-Brexit. For example, political rights could be extended beyond the municipal level. Certain categories of individuals (e.g. retirees, young workers) could benefit from special provisions which also depart from the pre-Brexit situation.
Topic:
Migration, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Brexit, Diversity, and Mobility
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe