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18151. Forward the Mekong-U.S. Partnership

Author:
Brian Eyler and Courtney Weatherby
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
On September 11, 2020 the United States, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam, and the ASEAN Secretariat launched the Mekong-US Partnership, a regional cooperation framework which upgrades the Obama-era Lower Mekong Initiative (LMI). The U.S. Department of State says the Partnership will expand on the success of the LMI “by strengthening the autonomy, economic independence, and sustainable development of the Mekong partner countries and promote a transparent, rules-based approach to transboundary challenges.” The new Partnership comes with an initial pledge of more than $150 million of U.S. funded programming to support COVID-19 recovery, counter transnational crimes, develop efficient energy markets, and counter trafficking in persons. A revitalization and upscaling of U.S. engagement in the Mekong is long overdue, particularly given China’s increasing engagement in the region and the economic challenges that Mekong countries will struggle with as a result of the coronavirus pandemic and chronic drought conditions. While the Partnership is still in its formative stages, there are several actions that would go a long way towards bolstering its effectiveness.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Partnerships, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, Southeast Asia, Laos, Myanmar, United States of America, and Mekong River

18152. From Transparent to Transparency: The Evolution of the Mekong River Commission's Prior Consultation Process

Author:
An Pich Hatda
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
An Pich Hatda, CEO of the Mekong River Commission, explains that: “The mainstream hydrology is changing, affecting the timing and volume of reverse flows into the Tonle Sap Lake, and making any definition of the wet and dry seasons a moving target.” Chapter III of the 1995 Mekong Agreement outlines the objectives and principles that underpin transboundary governance in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB). But the powers and functions outlined in the Agreement and the Rules of Procedures for the standing bodies, and the non-interventionist approach that underpins diplomacy in the region, dictate how this is done. While Chapter III of the Agreement outlines the intentions of transboundary governance, the more detailed processes that underpin water diplomacy were deferred to agreement on Rules for Water Utilisation and Inter-Basin Diversion, now the five MRC Procedures. These took another 20 years to finalize. The Procedures for Notification, Prior Consultation, and Agreement (PNPCA) may pose some of the biggest challenges for the Mekong River Commission (MRC). The Member Countries envisaged three forms of inter-State dialogue: Notification: applied to all uses on the tributaries and intra-basin use in the wet season; Prior Consultation (PC): applied to intra-basin use in the dry season, and inter-basin diversion of water in the wet season; and Agreement: applied to inter-basin use in the dry season.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Environment, Governance, Borders, and Transparency
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Mekong River

18153. United States-Canada Transboundary Water Governance Prioritizes Stakeholder Engagement

Author:
Jane Corwin
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
A review of the construct and functionality of the International Joint Commission may offer an example of effective water governance to be emulated in the Indo-Pacific Region. As water knows no boundaries nor political authority, collaboration across borders is necessary in order to manage water apportionment, flood/drought mitigation, and water quality in transboundary waters. Additionally, the importance of effective water governance will only increase with a changing climate. The governments of the United States and Canada recognized this in 1909 with the signing of the Boundary Waters Treaty (BWT). In the BWT, the governments established the mechanism by which the two countries would jointly manage their common waters. The governments created the International Joint Commission (IJC) to be one of those mechanisms. Further affirmation of the need for cross boundary cooperation resulted in the signing of the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement in 1972, most recently updated in 2012, which directs the IJC to assess progress and garner public input to achieve water quality objectives established by the two governments. The BWT gives the IJC power to resolve water disputes through Orders of Approval and References.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Territorial Disputes, Governance, and Borders
Political Geography:
Canada and United States of America

18154. Negotiating Transboundary River Governance in Myanmar

Author:
Khin Ohnmar Htwe
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Myanmar lies in the northwestern part of Indo-Chinese Peninsular or mainland South-East Asia. It is bounded by China on the north and north-east, Laos on the east, Thailand on the south-east, and Bangladesh and India on the west. There are 7 major drainage areas or catchment areas in Myanmar comprising a series of river- valleys running from north to south. The drainage areas in Myanmar are Ayeyarwady and Chindwin Rivers and tributaries (55.05%), Thanlwin (Salween) River and tributaries (18.43%), Sittaung River and tributaries (5.38%), Kaladan and Lemyo Rivers and tributaries (3.76%), Yangon River and tributaries (2.96%), Tanintharyi River and tributaries (2.66%), and Minor Coastal Streams (11.76%). Myanmar possesses 12% of Asia’s fresh water resources and 16% of that of the ASEAN nations. Growing nationwide demand for fresh water has heightened the challenges of water security. The transboundary river basins along the border line of Myanmar and neighboring countries are the Mekong, Thanlwin (Salween), Thaungyin (Moai), Naf, and Manipu rivers. The Mekong River is also an important transboundary river for Myanmar which it shares with China, Laos, and Thailand. The Mekong River, with a length of about 2,700 miles (4,350 km), rises in southeastern Qinghai Province, China, flows through the eastern part of the Tibet Autonomous Region and Yunnan Province, and forms part of the international border between Myanmar (Burma) and Laos, as well as between Laos and Thailand. The Mekong River meets the China–Myanmar border and flows about six miles along that border until it reaches the tripoint of China, Myanmar, and Laos. From there it flows southwest and forms the border of Myanmar and Laos for about 60 miles until it arrives at the tripoint of Myanmar, Laos, and Thailand. This is also the point of confluence between the Ruak River (which follows the Thai–Myanmar border) and the Mekong.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Water, Governance, and Borders
Political Geography:
Bangladesh, China, India, Thailand, Southeast Asia, Laos, and Myanmar

18155. Stakeholder engagement in the Mekong River: Relevant Findings from the Blue Peace Index

Author:
Matus Samel
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Water management and transboundary water cooperation affect people’s rights, and projects must balance the needs of different sectors of society. The Blue Peace Index, developed by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) with support from the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC), highlights that major tensions over water resources often arise not between states, but rather governments or commercial developers on the one hand, and affected communities on the other, or between communities themselves. Protests and tensions related to issues like pollution, inadequate resettlement logistics, and damage to livelihoods, have affected water infrastructure developments across the world. In pursuing sustainable and collaborative management of transboundary waters, inclusive participation of legitimate stakeholders is essential. In the Mekong River, top-down basin-level stakeholder engagement has been limited by the fact that the river’s upstream states, China and Myanmar, are only “dialogue partners”, not full members, of the Mekong River Commission (MRC), alongside the riparian neighbors Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam. Despite some positive developments in recent years with regards to basin-level dialogue through both the MRC and the Lancang–Mekong Cooperation Framework – a development and investment initiative promoted by China since 2016 as a platform for all Mekong riparian states – the lack of a single comprehensive platform for basin-level dialogue remains a major challenge to transboundary water cooperation, including in terms of stakeholder engagement.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Borders, Management, Dialogue, and Stakeholders
Political Geography:
Mekong River

18156. The Need to Move from Water Government to Water Governance Involving Civil Society

Author:
Leonie Pearson
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
With over 780 million people dependent on transboundary rivers in South and Southeast Asia, water governance is vital to regional development. Yet, the current approach to water governance is dominated by state-centric actors (sometimes called the “hydrocracy”) and is not delivering sustainable water management for people or ecosystems. The so-called “hydrocracy” is a mix of government, bureaucrats, politicians, and national development banks, often aligned with private developers. They have established strong processes for governing transboundary water and are focused on maintaining the cyclical planning-to-construction of large infrastructure projects, e.g. dams, hydropower plants, bridges, etc. These state-centric actors are focused on delivering water allocation, utilisation and management with a clear agenda of ‘the state has a duty to develop its water resources’ for national economic development. For many, the state-centric actors are delivering the governmental agenda. Therefore, it is not governance that is managing transboundary water in Asia, but government.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, Government, Water, and Governance
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia

18157. Stakeholder Engagement on Transboundary Water Management in Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam

Author:
Jake Brunner and Raphaël Glémet
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The International Union for Conservation of Nature’s (IUCN) Swiss-funded Building River Dialogue and Governance (BRIDGE) program supports countries that share river or lake basins to implement effective water management arrangements through a shared vision, benefit-sharing principles, and transparent and coherent institutional frameworks. BRIDGE works in 15 large transboundary river basins globally, including the Mekong. Within the Mekong, BRIDGE focuses on the Sekong, Sesan and Srepok (3S) river basins in Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam. Covering 10% of the Mekong river basin, the 3S provide 20% of its flow and a similar proportion of its suspended sediment. These rivers are also spawning grounds for many migratory fish species and freshwater biodiversity hotspots. As in the Mekong basin as a whole, water management in the 3S is dominated by government agencies and allied businesses whose interests are narrowly institutional. This has two consequences: investment decisions that only consider the institutional or national benefit may have large negative transboundary externalities, and appeals to the impact of upstream projects on biodiversity and livelihoods downstream tend to fall on deaf ears.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Natural Resources, Water, and Stakeholders
Political Geography:
Vietnam, Cambodia, Southeast Asia, and Laos

18158. Lessons from Australia’s Intra‐Country Transboundary Rivers Governance

Author:
John Dore
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Australia is a federation of 25 million people and a pre-Covid-19 GDP of $1.4 trillion. In practice, state and federal governments have to work together. Australia also has a highly variable climate and hydrology. Increasingly irregular rainfall and high rates of evaporation result in the lowest run-off among inhabited continents. The Murray Darling Basin (MDB) covers nearly 400,000 square miles of south-eastern Australia, twice the land area of Thailand. It contains the largest and most complex river system in Australia, with 50,000 miles of rivers, many of which are connected. The MDB includes 16 internationally significant wetlands, 35 endangered species and 98 different species of waterbirds. First Nations people have lived in what we now call the MDB for over 50,000 years and the basin contains many sacred and spiritually significant sites. The MDB has been the site of most Australian transboundary water governance experiences, with 6 governments involved: Federal, four states, and one territory—the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). For about 160 years there have been agreements and plans about how much water can be used from the River Murray and the Basin as a whole. Over the decades more and more water was being extracted. The health of the Murray Darling system was in decline.
Topic:
Environment, Natural Resources, and Governance
Political Geography:
Australia and Thailand

18159. A Role Model for Water Governance in a Shared Basin: the Example of the Danube

Author:
Ivan Zavadsky
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) is the largest transnational river basin management body in Europe. Its work is based on the Danube River Protection Convention (DRPC), signed on June 29, 1994 in Sofia, Bulgaria, the major legal instrument for cooperation and transboundary water management in the Danube River Basin. The ICPDR was established in 1998. The Convention was signed by eleven countries: Austria, Germany, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Moldova, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine, and the European Union. Serbia joined the Convention in 2003, followed by Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2005. Montenegro became the 14th ICPDR member in 2008. The ICPDR is formally comprised by the Delegations of all Contracting Parties to the DRPC. The ultimate goal of the ICPDR is to implement the Danube River Protection Convention, and make it a “living” instrument. The mission of the institution is to promote and coordinate sustainable and equitable water management, including conservation, and improvement and rational use of waters for the benefit of the Danube River Basin countries and their people. The ICPDR pursues its mission by making recommendations for the improvement of water quality, developing mechanisms for flood and accident control, agreeing on standards for emissions, and by assuring that these measures are reflected in the Contracting Parties’ national legislation and are applied in their policies.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Natural Resources, Water, Governance, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe

18160. Riparian Governance in South Asia: Many Rivers to Cross

Author:
Rajiv Bhatia
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Governance of transboundary rivers in South Asia is both complex and challenging due to a peculiar mix of imperatives relating to geography, demographics, and geopolitics. Hosting a quarter of the world’s population, the region, however, has no choice but to improve its record of riparian governance if it is to contribute more to the world’s well-being and its own.
Topic:
Demographics, Water, Governance, Geopolitics, and Geography
Political Geography:
South Asia

18161. Measuring Shinzo Abe’s Impact on the Indo‐Pacific

Author:
John Hemmings
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Last month’s news that Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was stepping down came like a thunderbolt from the blue. Once again, a health condition that had compelled him to step down in 2007, resurfaced. Whatever else one might say about Abe ‘the politician’ or Abe ‘the nationalist’, one cannot refute the fact that Abe the ‘grand strategist’ has had the most impact on Japan’s security posture since the Second World War. Of course, the question will be how Yoshihide Suga - his successor - adjusts Japan's grand strategy in coming months before he calls an election. One thing is already obvious, Suga – and, indeed, the next generation of future prime ministers – will have to live with Abe’s legacy in one form or another. This is all a long way from 2007, when Abe’s one-year premiership was already in the rear-view mirror. Even as he recovered his health, there were whispers in the corridors of Kasumigaseki that he intended to make a comeback and become prime minister again. At the time, many Japan-watchers were skeptical about his chances. His first year had not been particularly successful or popular. Indeed, the loss of the Upper House to the opposition Democratic Party of Japan had paved the way for their electoral in in 2009. Despite this inauspicious beginning, not only did Abe challenge his doubters by successfully running for LDP leadership in September 2012 but he campaigned on a slogan of “take back Japan” in November and won the premiership back in 2012.
Topic:
Security, Elections, and Grand Strategy
Political Geography:
Japan and Indo-Pacific

18162. How Market Sentiment Drives Forecasts of Stock Returns

Author:
Roman Frydman, Nicholas Mangee, and Josh Stillwagon
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
We reveal a novel channel through which market participants’ sentiment influences how they forecast stock returns: their optimism (pessimism) affects the weights they assign to fundamentals. Our analysis yields four main findings. First, if good (bad) “news” about dividends and interest rates coincides with participants’ optimism (pessimism), the news about these fundamentals has a significant effect on participants’ forecasts of future returns and has the expected signs (positive for dividends and negative for interest rates). Second, in models without interactions, or when market sentiment is neutral or conflicts with news about dividends and/or interest rates, this news often does not have a significant effect on ex ante or ex post returns. Third, market sentiment is largely unrelated to the state of economic activity, indicating that it is driven by non-fundamental considerations. Moreover, market sentiment influences stock returns highly irregularly, in terms of both timing and magnitude. This finding supports recent theoretical approaches recognizing that economists and market participants alike face Knightian uncertainty about the correct model driving stock returns.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, and Stock Markets
Political Geography:
United States

18163. Challenges to the Middle East North Africa Inclusionary State

Author:
Marc Lynch, Bassel Salloukh, Toby Dodge, Jeroen Gunning, Dima Smaira, Stacey Philbrick Yadav, Morten Valbjørn, Simon Mabon, Ala'a Shehabi, and Mariam Salehi
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
The challenges to inclusionary states in the MENA region are daunting—including fiercely authoritarian states, the reality or threat of political violence, and ongoing protest movements. In September 2019, POMEPS and the Lebanese American University (LAU) brought together a diverse, interdisciplinary group of scholars to discuss the challenges to building more inclusive orders under these conditions.
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, Politics, Sovereignty, Sectarianism, Transitional Justice, State, Reconciliation, Inclusion, and Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF)
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Yemen, North Africa, and Lebanon

18164. Sectarianism and International Relations

Author:
Marc Lynch, Simon Mabon, Christopher Phillips, F. Gregory Gause III, Morten Valbjørn, Maria-Louise Clausen, Johan Eriksson, Helle Malmvig, Tamirace Fakhoury, Bassel Salloukh, May Darwich, and Edward Wastnidge
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
The essays collected here were initially presented at a joint SEPAD-POMEPS workshop held at Chatham House in February 2020. The authors were asked to reflect on the ways in which geopolitical tensions between Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United States – and others – shapes conflict and societal tensions across the Middle East and beyond.
Topic:
International Relations, Nationalism, Infrastructure, Sectarianism, Geopolitics, Arab Spring, Repression, Geography, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Central Asia, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, United States of America, and Horn of Africa

18165. The COVID-19 Pandemic in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:
Marc Lynch, Eleanore Ardemagni, Jesse Marks, Elizabeth Parker-Magyar, Allison Spencer Hartnett, Ezzeldeen al-Natour, Laith al-Ajlouni, Carla Abdo-Katsipis, Lucia Ardovini, Yasmine Zarhloule, Yasmina Abouzzohour, Brent E. Sasley, Ehud Eiran, Sally Sharif, Diana Galeeva, Matthew Hedges, Elham Fakhro, Kristin Diwan, Guy Burton, Ruth Hanau Santini, Justin Schon, Alex Thurston, Adam Hoffmann, and Robert Kubinec
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
This special issue of POMEPS STUDIES collects twenty contributions from a wide range of young scholars writing from diverse perspectives, which collectively offer a fascinating overview of a region whose governance failures, economic inequalities and societal resilience were all suddenly thrown into sharp relief.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Islam, Nationalism, United Nations, Governance, Authoritarianism, Refugees, Inequality, Conflict, Pandemic, Resilience, COVID-19, and Identity
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, Israel, Yemen, North Africa, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, and Morocco

18166. Africa and the Middle East: Beyond the Divides

Author:
Hisham Aïdi, Marc Lynch, Zachariah Mampilly, Nisrin El-Amin, Jean-Baptiste Gallopin, Noah Salomon, Samar Al-Bulushi, Wolfram Lacher, Federico Donelli, Lina Benabdallah, Ezgi Guner, Afifa Ltifi, Zekeria Ould Ahmed Salem, Alex Thurston, and Alex de Waal
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
The papers, published in this collection, ranged widely over issues connecting West Africa, the Horn, the Sahel and North Africa thematically, politically, militarily and culturally. The goal of this volume is to get American political science to break down the barriers between academic subfields defined by regions and open the fields to new questions raised by scholars from and across Africa and the Middle East.
Topic:
Islam, War, Regime Change, Media, Conflict, Political Science, Revolution, and Capital
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Sudan, Turkey, Middle East, Libya, Saudi Arabia, North Africa, West Africa, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, East Africa, Sahel, and Horn of Africa

18167. Israel/Palestine: Exploring A One-State Reality

Author:
Marc Lynch, Michael Barnett, and Nathan Brown
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
In October 2019, the Project on Middle East Political Science convened a workshop with more than a dozen scholars – Israelis, Palestinians, and others – to discuss the contours of this emergent one state reality. The essays in this collection represent an initial assessment of this reality, and many more will follow over the years to come. The authors each bring their own perspective and history, their own commitments and values, their own aspirations for the future, producing areas of agreement and disagreement. But all agree on the urgent need to recognize the Israeli-Palestinian reality for what it really is and to develop the theoretical language and conceptual tools to rigorously describe and compare that reality. We hope this collection makes a small contribution to the vibrant intellectual debates developing around these issues and joins those ongoing dialogues in a productive way.
Topic:
Civil Society, Human Rights, Territorial Disputes, Citizenship, Ethnicity, Mobility, Settler Colonialism, and Segregation
Political Geography:
Israel, Palestine, Jordan, Mediterranean, and West Bank

18168. MENA’s Frozen Conflicts

Author:
Marc Lynch
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
Over the last year, the MENA region’s simmering conflicts have seemed frozen in place. The internationally-fueled civil wars in Syria, Yemen and Libya have long since settled into an equilibrium in which no side can either truly win or truly lose. Those conflicts have been held in place in part by local ecologies and war economies and in part by the competitive interventions by regional and international powers on behalf of their proxies and clients. But are these conflicts truly frozen? What does viewing them through such a lens gain, and what are the theoretical and analytical costs? To explore these questions, POMEPS convened a virtual research workshop on September 25, 2020, with scholars from diverse empirical and theoretical backgrounds.
Topic:
Security, Civil War, Politics, Citizenship, Military Intervention, Conflict, Syrian War, Mental Health, Crisis Management, Peace, Justice, Capital, and Mobilization
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Libya, Yemen, North Africa, Lebanon, Syria, and United States of America

18169. Modigliani Meets Minsky: Inequality, Debt, and Financial Fragility in America, 1950-2016

Author:
Alina K. Bartscher, Moritz Kuhn, Moritz Schularick, and Ulrike I. Steins
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
This paper studies the secular increase in U.S. household debt and its relation to growing income inequality and financial fragility. We exploit a new household-level dataset that covers the joint distributions of debt, income, and wealth in the United States over the past seven decades. The data show that increased borrowing by middle-class families with low income growth played a central role in rising indebtedness. Debt-to-income ratios have risen most dramatically for households between the 50th and 90th percentiles of the income distribution. While their income growth was low, middle-class families borrowed against the sizable housing wealth gains from rising home prices. Home equity borrowing accounts for about half of the increase in U.S. household debt between the 1970s and 2007. The resulting debt increase made balance sheets more sensitive to income and house price fluctuations and turned the American middle class into the epicenter of growing financial fragility.
Topic:
Debt, Finance, Income Inequality, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
United States

18170. The Economics and Politics of Social Democracy: A Reconsideration

Author:
Servaas Storm
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Questions about the decline of Social democracy continue to excite wide interest, even in the era of Covid-19. This paper takes a fresh look at topic. It argues that social democratic politics faces a fundamental dilemma: short-term practical relevance requires it to accept, at least partly, the very socio-economic conditions which it purports to change in the longer run. Bhaduri’s (1993) essay which analyzes social democracy’s attempts to navigate this dilemma by means of ‘a nationalization of consumption’ and Keynesian demand management, was written before the rise of New (‘Third Way’) Labor and before the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-8. This paper provides an update, arguing that New Labor’s attempt to rescue ‘welfare capitalism’ entailed a new solution to the dilemma facing social democracy based on an expansion of employment, i.e. an all-out emphasis on “jobs, jobs, jobs”. The flip-side (or social cost) of the emphasis on job growth has been a stagnation of productivity growth—which, in turn, has put the ‘welfare state’ under increasing pressure of fiscal austerity. The popular discontent and rise of ‘populist’ political parties is closely related to the failure of New Labor to navigate social democracy’s dilemma.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Democracy, Capitalism, Economic Growth, Welfare, Productivity, and Social Democracy
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

18171. How the Disappearance of Unionized Jobs Obliterated an Emergent Black Middle Class

Author:
William Lazonick, Philip Moss, and Joshua Weitz
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
During the 1960s and 1970s, blacks with no more than high-school educations gained significant access to well-paid unionized employment opportunities, epitomized by semi-skilled operative jobs in the automobile industry, to which they previously had limited access. Anti-discrimination laws under Title VII of the 1964 Civil Rights Act with oversight by the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission supported this upward mobility for blacks in the context of a growing demand for blue-collar labor. From the late 1970s, however, the impact of global competition and the offshoring of manufacturing combined with the financialization of the corporation to decimate these stable and well-paid blue-collar jobs. Under the seniority provisions of the now beleaguered industrial unions, blacks tended to be last hired and first fired. As U.S.-based blue-collar jobs were permanently lost, U.S. business corporations and government agencies failed to make sufficient investments in the education and skills of the U.S. labor force to usher in a new era of upward socioeconomic mobility. This organizational failure left blacks most vulnerable to downward mobility. Instead of retaining corporate profits and reinvesting in the productive capabilities of employees, major business corporations became increasingly focused on downsizing their labor forces and distributing profits to shareholders in the form of cash dividends and stock buybacks. Legitimizing massive distributions to shareholders was the flawed and pernicious ideology that a company should be run to “maximize shareholder value.” As the U.S. economy transitioned from the Old Economy business model, characterized by a career with one company, to the New Economy business model, characterized by interfirm labor mobility, advanced education and social networks became increasingly important for building careers in well-paid white-collar occupations. Along with non-white Hispanics, blacks found themselves at a distinct disadvantage relative to whites and Asians in accessing these New Economy middle-class employment opportunities. Eventually, the downward socioeconomic mobility experienced by blacks would also extend to devastating loss of well-paid and stable employment for whites who lacked the higher education now needed to enter the American middle class. By the twenty-first century, general downward mobility had become a defining characteristic of American society, irrespective of race, ethnicity, or gender. Since the 1980s, the enemy of equal employment opportunity through upward socioeconomic mobility has been the pervasive and entrenched corporate-governance ideology and practice of maximizing shareholder value (MSV). For most Americans, of whatever race, ethnicity, and gender, MSV is the not-so-invisible hand that has a chokehold on the emergence of the stable and well-paid employment opportunities that are essential for sustainable prosperity.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Civil Rights, Unions, Black Politics, African American Studies, and Workforce
Political Geography:
United States

18172. Immaculate Deception: How (and Why) Bankers Still Enjoy a Global Rescue Network

Author:
Edward J. Kane
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Dodd-Frank is an example of counterfeit reform. It is designed principally to benefit very big banks and it has helped these banks to increase their market share greatly during the last 10 years. The Act provides lesser and contradictory forms of costs and comfort to smaller US bankers and taxpayers, foreign bankers (especially the managers of Deutsche Bank), and foreign governments. Small bankers and taxpayers are encouraged to believe that the 2007-2009 US rescue of the world’s biggest banks was a one-time maneuver. But an opposite message is sent through the press as (with great fanfare) the industry absolves and congratulates ex-officeholders: (1) for having transferred massive amounts of subsidized support not just to stakeholders in US megabanks, but also to European bankers and governments, and (2) for keeping the subsidies flowing long past the panic’s expiry date. Genuine reform will require changes in fraud laws and an effort to post on a continuing basis the value of the safety-net subsidies individual megabanks enjoy.
Topic:
Government, Reform, Regulation, Finance, Global Financial Crisis, and Banking
Political Geography:
United States

18173. Political Vigilante Groups in Ghana's Democratic Governance: Some Policy Options

Author:
Justice Richard Kwabena Owusu Kyei
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
This policy brief explores the activities of political vigilante groups in Ghana in relation to the Vigilantism and Related Offenses Law, 2019. It notes that contrary to the widespread perception of political vigilante groups as violent political actors, they contribute to Ghana’s stability and democratic peace. It therefore comes up with recommendations for inte- grating them into Ghana’s political and democratic architecture. Political vigilantism1 in Ghana dates back to the struggle for indepen- dence and the First Republic. The earliest of such groups, the Veranda Boys, was formed by Osagyefo Kwame Nkrumah, Ghana’s first prime minister and president. Political vigilante groups2 have featured in Ghana’s Four Republics (1960-1966; 1969-1972; 1979-1981 and 1993-Present). However, due to the short-lived nature of the first three Republics, their impact on the governance system could not be fully examined. Since the Fourth Republic has endured for over two decades, its longevity has provided adequate time for political vigilante groups to evolve and sit- uate themselves firmly in the political process. In the Fourth Republic these groups have coalesced around the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and National Democratic Congress (NDC). This policy brief argues that political vigilante groups cannot be branded only as violent and disruptive groups and disbanded on that basis. Rather they should be recognized as political actors with certain interests that are compatible with democratic gover- nance in Ghana. Their activities are pertinent to the enhancement of peace and democratic growth espe- cially at the local government level.
Topic:
Political Activism, Political stability, Peace, Independence, and Vigilantism
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

18174. Promoting Reconciliation Among Post-genocide Second Generation Rwandans

Author:
Marie Grace Kagoyire
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
More than two decades after the genocide in Rwanda, the trauma is still haunt- ing some families and being transmitted from survivor parents to the next gen- eration. Within this time period, there have been interventions addressing the mental health needs of those traumatized by the genocide. Policies aimed at promoting reconciliation, while reducing tensions among former enemies to prevent future collective violence among citizens have also been implemented.1 This policy brief is based on the findings of a research project conducted in eastern Rwanda between July and November 2019. It involved interviews with genocide survivors who are now parents, descendants of genocide survivors aged between 18-25 years old, and staff from psycho-social and peacebuild- ing organizations. The study explored intergenerational trauma transmission from genocide survivor parents to their descendants born after the 1994 geno- cide and its implications for reconciliation.
Topic:
Genocide, Trauma, Reconciliation, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa and Rwanda

18175. Deployment of Soldiers to Communities experiencing Gang Violence in South Africa: Policy Perspectives

Author:
Godfrey Maringira and Diana Gibson
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
The point of departure of this policy brief is the failure by the police to effec- tively deal with gang-related violence in the Western Cape and the deploy- ment of soldiers to the affected communities. It examines challenges linked to the deployment of soldiers in response to spiralling levels of urban violence and crime, which should normally fall within the purview of the police. The brief identifies the challenge of perception in black townships where soldiers are viewed as ‘strangers’ or outsiders, particularly by community leaders who are more knowledgeable and experienced in dealing with gang-related violence. Data collected during fieldwork in black townships point to the limitations of the military approach. In this regard, a case is made to the government to direct more resources towards community and non-governmental structures for combating gang-related violence. While we do not seek to over-romanticize the capacity of grassroots and non-governmental structures, there is sufficient evidence that the government and the police can tap into local knowledge, provide resources, and build capacities to effectively address gang-related violence. Community based and non-governmental organizations, which are active at the grassroots level, are often well placed to assist with social and economic interventions that can ameliorate circumstances which contribute to gang violence.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Violence, Local, and Gangs
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

18176. Gang Relationships in a Black Township in South Africa

Author:
Diana Gibson and Godfrey Maringira
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
This paper examines the ways in which young men involved in gang violence forge and sustain their relationships over time in Gugulethu, a township in Cape Town, South Africa. We argue that even though gang members employ violent techniques to sustain their relationships, such relationships are also alternative sources of social and emotional support especially in a context characterized by extreme poverty and fractured fam- ilies, as well as communities having to deal with great financial hardship. These relationships tend to extend beyond gangs to include community leaders and close family members. The paper draws from an ethnography of walking the township streets, being in them, observing and engaging in conversations with young men involved in gang violence. We used thematic analysis to achieve a detailed understanding of the data, using the voices of the participants on which this study is based to recognize, draw out and analyze the themes.
Topic:
Security, Youth, Violence, Gangs, and Identity
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

18177. Conflict and Cooperation in the Eastern Nile: The Role of Business

Author:
Rawia Tawfik
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
The discussion of the role of business in resource-based conflicts in Afri- ca in general and the Nile basin in particular, has been dominated by two approaches. The first approach emphasizes the role of business in exacer- bating domestic and transboundary conflicts by engaging in land and wa- ter grabs.1 In the Nile basin, large-scale land acquisitions by foreign cor- porations have often been considered as a means of exploiting land and water resources, and a factor that increases uncertainty and complexity in hydropolitical relations in the basin.2 This investigation of foreign invest- ments can be linked to a broader literature on promoting good governance of natural resources. This literature focuses on increasing transparency and accountability of all stakeholders, including non-state actors involved in the use of natural resources and ensuring the sustainable management of these resources.3 In contrast, the second approach, which focuses more on transboundary business cooperation, argues that economic cooperation, not only between state actors, but also between corporations could de-escalate conflicts over shared water resources. According to this approach, the private sector can act as ‘an agent of change’ by creating shared interests across borders and engaging in confidence-building activities.4 International organizations and funding institutions have supported multi-stakeholder forums to strength- en transnational cooperation between non-state actors and pushed for public-private partnerships to implement projects at transboundary levels.5 In the Nile basin, inter-riparian investments have been suggested as a po- tential means of reducing tensions through trading virtual water (i.e. the volume of water used in the production of commodities, goods, or services) from water-rich upstream countries, especially Ethiopia to water-scarce downstream countries, especially Egypt.6 It has been suggested that the more Egypt invests in upstream countries (and Sudan) for domestic agri- cultural production, the less likely it would resort to military means against these countries to secure access to the Nile waters to feed its own popula- tion. This assumption indicates that while inter-riparian investments may increase conflict within receiving countries, it may reduce conflicts between these countries.7 This paper contributes to this debate by examining the actual roles played by Egyptian businesses in the hydro-political and hydro-economic relations between the three Eastern Nile countries and the factors that affect these roles. It argues that the two approaches criticizing business's contribution to conflict or applauding its contribution to cooperation have not adequately captured the complexity and variety of roles played by business. It also does not adequately summarize the possible contradictory impacts of these roles on conflict and cooperation between riparian states. These approaches also downplay the impact of state-business relations and of the basin context, especially the history of hydro-political relations, on these roles. The paper will also address four main questions: what are the motivations of Egyptian businesses investing in Ethiopia and Sudan? To what extent do tensions over the utilization of the Nile waters factor into risk assessment of investments in the two countries? What roles do Egyptian public and pri- vate corporations play in promoting economic cooperation and reducing the potential of conflict, or increasing tensions between Egypt on the one hand, and Ethiopia and Sudan on the other hand? What factors affect these roles and how? And how can the business community better contribute to reduc- ing tensions over the utilization of water resources and promoting wider economic cooperation between Eastern Nile countries?
Topic:
Privatization, Water, Business, Conflict, and Private Sector
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Egypt

18178. ECOWAS Mediation in Togo's 2017/2018 Political Crisis: Feats, Deadlocks, and Lessons

Author:
Brown Odigie
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
On August 18, 2017, opposition1 figures in the Republic of Togo, a member-state of the Economic Community of West Africa States (ECOWAS), took to the streets to protest the continued rule of Faure Gnassingbé, the incum- bent president of the country who has spent 14 years in power. They demand- ed constitutional reforms, and in particular, a return to the 1992 constitu- tion, which would, bring back a constitutional provision limiting presidential tenure to two-terms of five years only. Other reforms demanded included a demand for a two-round system2 for presidential elections, reform of elec- toral laws and the election management body, review of the voters’ register, as well as voting rights for Togolese nationals in the diaspora. In a quick progression of events, the protesters made additional demands including one for an immediate end3 to the regime of Faure Gnassingbé, whose family has been accused of institutionalizing dynastic rule starting with his father, Gnassingbé Eyadéma, who ruled the country from 1967 till his death in of- fice on February 5, 2005. For several months, on regular intervals, leaders of the opposition and civil society groups mobilized different social groups including youths and women to continue to make these demands on the government. occasionally in violent demonstrations that led to public disor- der, looting ofOccasionally these protests degenerated into violent demon- strations that led to public disorder, looting of private and public goods, and loss of lives. The initial reaction of the government was to crack down on the protesters, using state apparatuses of force to shut down the internet, which was crucial for mobilization, arresting4 a number of activists on the streets of Lomé, the country's capital. The protests, however, continued as protesters were undeterred,5 and soon spread to the country’s second larg- est city of Sokodé in the central region. Following persistent demonstra- tions and calls by the international community, notably, ECOWAS, France, the United Nations (UN), the European Union (EU), and the African Union Commission (AUC) for an immediate dialogue in resolving the impasses, Mr. Faure Gnassingbé finally accepted to dialogue and negotiate with the opposition. Leveraging on a preventive diplomacy conceptual framework of analysis, this paper highlights the nuances and the herculean task of mediating po- litical conflicts by regional organizations such as ECOWAS. It does so es- pecially in relation to preventing protests from escalating into violent con- flict, navigating deadlocks, and achieving concessions on important political and constitutional matters that might alter the existing power equation. It analyses the spate of criticism that trailed ECOWAS’ mediation of the cri- sis during a period the Togolese president, Mr. Faure Gnassingbé, was the Chair of the Authority of Heads of State and Government of ECOWAS (June 2017 to July 2018) as well as the efforts to maintain impartiality by the Fa- cilitators appointed by ECOWAS to assist the government and opposition stakeholders to negotiate a political settlement and implement constitu- tional reforms. The paper also raises questions about the rationality of the decision of the coalition of fourteen opposition parties (C14) to boycott the December 20, 2018 legislative elections, noting that the election boycott hardly achieved its intended purpose of delegitimizing the government. It, however, com- mends the ability of the opposition to learn key lessons from the boycott, and emphasizes the imperative for both the government and the opposition parties to continue exploring avenues for inclusive dialogue in addressing unresolved contentious issues, not only with respect to the immediate 2020 presidential elections, but more importantly, efforts at expanding the polit- ical and civic space and strengthening the role of civil society organizations in democratic processes in the country. The paper concludes by extolling the steadiness and the resilience of West African citizens in demanding for, and, or defending constitutional provisions that limit presidential tenures. It also notes that such vigilance and resilience are needed if democratic cul- ture and good governance are to be deepened in the region.
Topic:
Civil Society, Diplomacy, Governance, Peace, Mediation, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa, West Africa, and Togo

18179. Higher Education as a Pathway toward Peace in Burkina Faso: New Policy Perspectives

Author:
Dagan Rossini and Felicity Burgess
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
Higher education plays an important role in promoting inclusive democracies and driving social and economic change. Many African universities, however, face key structural challenges including limited Internet, outdated curricula, overburdened faculty, and archaic infrastructure. These systemic issues have been exacerbated by rising enrollment rates in the wake of global pressures to expand access and ensure quality of education for all. As governments and multilateral institutions look to capitalize on the continent’s demographic dividend, it is important to rethink, revitalize, and restructure African university systems, particularly in (post-)conflict settings. This policy brief is based on a report prepared for the Ministry of Higher Education, Scientific Research, and Innovation in Burkina Faso. It identifies a mismatch between the supply of skilled graduates and labor market demands, bearing in mind Burkina Faso’s ambition to become one of three main knowl- edge hubs in West Africa and the ongoing crisis in the Sahel region. Research was conducted between September 2019 and April 2020 and included three weeks of qualitative research in the capital city, Ouagadougou, involving focus groups and semi-structured interviews with 67 individuals. Findings suggest that increased collaboration between the education and economic sectors will enhance both student learning experiences and professional practices, thereby enabling more peaceful and democratic futures
Topic:
Education, Governance, Democracy, Peace, Higher Education, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:
Africa and Burkina Faso

18180. Contemporary Investigations on Academic Freedom and Conflict in Africa: A Metaphorical Linguistic Analysis

Author:
Abdul Karim Bangura
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
That transgression against academic freedom is a major human fault line that leads to conflict in Africa is hardly a matter of dispute. Yet, this topic has not received its deserved attention in the study of peace and conflict on the continent. By arguing that one factor that is employed to contravene academic freedom in Africa comprises the metaphors that are employed in discussing the issue, this paper offers a linguistic analysis of the metaphors that have appeared in contemporary works on the topic, beginning with the one commissioned by CODESRIA, edited by Mamadou Diouf and Mah- moud Mamdani, and published in 1993 to that written by John Higgins and published in 2014. This is essential because metaphors are not just “more picturesque speech.” The power of metaphors hinges upon their ability to assimilate new experiences so as to allow the newer and abstract domain of experience to be understood in terms of the former and more concrete, and to serve as a basis and justification for policy making. We should there- fore be horrified by the metaphors that have become the currency in our discourses within the academy, as some of these lead to the loss of lives, employment, gender equity, benefits, prestige, etc.
Topic:
Linguistics, Academia, Domestic Policy, and Free Speech
Political Geography:
Africa

18181. Youth Patronage: Violence, Intimidation, and Political Mobilization in Zimbabwe

Author:
Godfrey Maringira and Simbarashe Gukurume
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
The Zimbabwean political terrain has been inundated with deep seated youth violence and neopatrimonial politics, mediated through Pres- ident Robert Mugabe and his political party, the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) and its patronage networks. Drawing on ethnographic fieldwork research with youth in Harare, this paper focuses on the dynamics of youth patronage and violence as a tool of political mobiliza- tion by ZANU-PF in urban spaces. This paper shows that one of the remark- able ways in which Mugabe has been able to remain in power is through his ability to transform his political position into a source of opportunities for his political clients. It examines the ways in which Mugabe’s political party mobilizes political violence in return for political benefits within the city of Harare. We examine this political patronage system and the ways in which it influences the ordinary lives of youth in the city. We argue that Mugabe should be construed as a political ‘Big Man’ patron with a huge network of political clients, the youth included. We show how ZANU-PF creates paral- lel structures that mediate the exchange of resources in return for political loyalty and mobilization of violence by ZANU-PF against its real or perceived political nemesis.
Topic:
Youth, Violence, Political Parties, and Mobilization
Political Geography:
Africa and Zimbabwe

18182. Local Water Conflicts in Uganda: Options for Peacebuilding Policy and Practice

Author:
Resty Naiga
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
This policy brief draws on the results of field-based research on water-related conflicts in Western Uganda to analyze the governance and institutional build- ing aspects of conflict prevention and peacebuilding. The brief provides policy and practical options on how to address governance aspects of peacebuild- ing in relation to local water conflicts.
Topic:
Water, Peacekeeping, Conflict, and Local
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

18183. Where Are We Now? Examining the Trump Administration’s Efforts to Combat Cybercrime

Author:
Michael Garcia and Anisha Hindocha
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Third Way
Abstract:
Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, the United States has seen an acceleration of an already massive cybercrime wave. Daily reports of cybercrime to the FBI’s Internet Crime Complaint Center have nearly quadrupled since the pandemic began, to roughly 4,000 reports per day. Unfortunately, even before this crisis began, the enforcement rates for these crimes are low – for every 1,000 reported cyber incidents, only three arrests of the perpetrators occur. In the fall of 2018, the White House released the “National Cyber Strategy of the United States,” which detailed how the Administration would create or update policies for combating cybercrime. While no implementation plan for this Strategy was ever published, Third Way conducted an analysis of publicly available information of the Administration’s actions and budgetary allocations since the strategy’s release to examine their cybercrime enforcement efforts.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Digitalization
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

18184. US Global Cybercrime Cooperation: A Brief Explainer

Author:
Allison Peters and Anisha Hindocha
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Third Way
Abstract:
Cybercrime is a persistent and transnational threat with the rates in the United States estimated to have up to quadrupled during the COVID-19 pandemic. Unfortunately, law enforcement in the United States and globally has struggled to keep up with this crime, resulting in a considerable enforcement gap that allows cybercriminals to operate with near impunity. In the United States, only 3 in 1,000 malicious cyber incidents will ever see an arrest and the global enforcement gap is likely to be similar.1 The investigation of one cybercrime case often involves criminal justice systems in many different countries, requiring intense international cooperation to bring the perpetrators to justice. The United States is a member of a number of formal and informal mechanisms that help facilitate this cooperation. This includes being a party to a number of binding treaties—particularly the only global cybercrime treaty known as the Budapest Convention—as well as a member of key networks and in multilateral forums. The United States is also a member of a number of entities aimed at developing norms to guide the behavior of nation-states in cyberspace where cooperation in cybercrime investigations is encouraged.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Crime, Cybersecurity, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

18185. Weakened Encryption: The Threat to America’s National Security

Author:
Mieke Eoyang and Michael Garcia
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Third Way
Abstract:
For years, law enforcement officials have warned that, because of encryption, criminals can hide their communications and acts, causing law enforcement to struggle to decrypt data during their investigation—a challenge commonly referred to as “going dark.” They called on technology companies to build a process, like a “master key,” to enable law enforcement to unlock encrypted communications. While this may seem like a tempting idea, it would have grave implications for our national security. As more and more of our communications move online, users seek out encrypted services to protect their privacy. Unlike telephonic communications, and despite repeated requests by law enforcement to do so, Congress has not required internet communications platforms to give law enforcement access to intercept user communications or access stored communications. In this paper, we assess the national security risks to a requirement to provide that master key (referred to throughout as “exceptional” or “backdoor” access) to encrypted communications and propose alternative approaches to address online harms.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, and Encryption
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

18186. 2020 Country Brief: Russia

Author:
Third Way
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Third Way
Abstract:
Under Vladimir Putin, Russia is our adversary. The goals of Vladimir Putin are simple and dangerous: 1) reassert Russian global “great power” status; 2) have supremacy over the territory of the former Soviet Union; and 3) create a sphere of influence in the international system to achieve dominance. To do so, the Kremlin seeks to weaken America and its allies by sowing domestic discord, discrediting the institutions of democracy, and destroying US alliances and partnerships. Under Donald Trump, they are winning.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, and Power
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

18187. 2020 Thematic Brief: COVID-19 and Global Health Security

Author:
Third Way
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Third Way
Abstract:
The Trump Administration’s catastrophic mismanagement of the pandemic has made the United States the center of virus contagion. Yes, the COVID-19 virus began in China and there should be a no-stones-unturned investigation into its origins and the failure to contain it. But Trump’s attempts to distract from his mishandling are a sideshow—the priority must be protecting Americans and safely re-opening the economy. If blaming others, making excuses, and ducking responsibility were a cure for the virus, America would be open for business right now. But President Trump had no strategy from the start, played down the severity of the crisis, refused to wear a mask until July, and made just about every wrong move you could make to take a very bad situation and make it worse. Now we have millions of cases in the United States, almost 200,000 deaths, and tens of millions of people filing for unemployment. What we don’t have is any semblance of a national strategy. And on the international front, Trump’s only answer is to blame and defund the World Health Organization (WHO).
Topic:
Security, Governance, Leadership, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

18188. 2020 Country Brief: China

Author:
Third Way
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Third Way
Abstract:
hina is no longer a budding regional hegemon, but a global power seeking to rival the United States on the international stage in economic, military, technological, and diplomatic terms. Further, the country’s actions—such as handling public health issues—have direct consequences for Americans. Moderating China’s growing influence is the foreign policy challenge that will define the future. Yet “America First” policies, in combination with erratic leadership, have placed the United States at a strategic disadvantage in the international arena, providing China the opportunity to fill a leadership void and promote its policies and technologies, while achieving its economic and military ambitions.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Hegemony, Leadership, and Influence
Political Geography:
China and Asia

18189. 2020 Thematic Brief: Trump Investigations

Author:
Third Way
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Third Way
Abstract:
President Trump’s governing style deviates dramatically from the approaches followed by his predecessors. His propensity to ask for foreign interference in American elections, lack of transparency, erratic decision making, political retaliation, and potential self-dealing has led to over 300 House congressional hearings and more than 900 oversight letters into his actions.It has also resulted in federal criminal investigations into Trump associates, and criminal and civil investigations in New York state, where the Trump Organization is headquartered
Topic:
Elections, Justice, Foreign Interference, Election Interference, and Investigations
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

18190. 2020 Country Brief: Saudi Arabia and its role in Yemen

Author:
Third Way
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Third Way
Abstract:
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has been a close security and economic partner of the United States for most of the Kingdom’s history. But the United States cannot ignore Saudi Arabia’s gruesome acts and abuses, nor allow them to be swept under the rug. The two countries have critical differences on a number of key issues, including those related to terrorism, human rights, and regional security threats. Two particular actions taken by Saudi Arabia have caused Congress to revisit the US-Saudi relationship: Saudi-led military operations in Yemen that have killed thousands of innocent civilians and left millions on the brink of starvation; and The 2018 brutal murder of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi—a Saudi citizen and US resident—carried out by the Saudi government in Istanbul, Turkey. In the face of Saudi Arabia’s dangerous and destabilizing behavior, President Trump has doubled down on his support for the Kingdom and defied bipartisan congressional opposition to continue to sell arms to the Saudi government. Instead of permitting President Trump to allow autocrats and dictators to operate with impunity and commit acts of unimaginable horror, Congress must reassert its foreign policy decision-making power, impose targeted consequences on the Kingdom for its actions, and withdraw support for Saudi-led military operations in Yemen.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, and Human Rights Violations
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, North America, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

18191. 2020 Country Brief: North Korea

Author:
Third Way
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Third Way
Abstract:
There may be no brutal dictator who has fared better under Trump than North Korea’s butcher, Kim Jong-un. There are two essential issues in the US-North Korea relationship: Ending the nuclear threat North Korea poses globally; and Ending the threat North Korea poses to its South Korean neighbors. To Donald Trump’s credit, he tried unorthodox methods to address both. To his detriment and that of the entire free world, he was so unprepared and outfoxed that North Korea won all the chips. To try mitigating North Korea’s nuclear threat, President Donald Trump held two summits with North Korean Chairman King Jong-un. At the first summit in Singapore, the agreement President Trump signed amounted to absolutely nothing. His own national security advisor, John Bolton, called it “badly flawed.”1And the North Korean tyrant, Kim Jong-un, got the legitimacy he craved. A second summit was equally as weak. While initial observers had high hopes for diplomacy with the North, Trump was simply unprepared and outplayed. North Korea changed nothing about its behavior. Two failed summits showed that the two sides will never be able to come to an agreement under President Trump to lift sanctions in exchange for denuclearization. In fact, as a result of the Trump Administration’s failures, North Korea has continued to advance its nuclear weapons and missile programs, and has stated that diplomacy with President Trump has “faded into a nightmare.”2 Ultimately, negotiations with North Korea are the best way to reduce the threat the country's nuclear weapons pose to the United States and its allies in the long term. But, given past experience, negotiations must focus on producing specific, measurable, and verifiable reductions in North Korea’s nuclear capability before further accommodations are made. A smart and tough deal with North Korea would include: Specific and immediate steps to reduce and ultimately eliminate North Korea’s inventory of long-range ballistic missiles capable of hitting parts of the United States; A path to reducing and eliminating its arsenal of nuclear weapons; A verification regime to ensure North Korea does not undermine a deal by continuing its long history of violating nuclear agreements; and Security guarantees coordinated with US allies, especially South Korea and Japan. Past US presidents offered North Korea a choice: they can have either a nuclear weapon or an economy, but not both. Unlike past presidents, however, Trump gave Kim Jong-un the legitimacy he craved and received nothing in return. While repeatedly fawning over him, Trump elevated the tyrant Kim on the world stage, claimed a victory lap for signing a weak and vague agreement that does little to address the nuclear threat from North Korea, and then walked away with nothing after capitulating to Kim’s demand for a second summit. To further complicate matters, uncertainty around Kim’s health and the leadership structure in North Korea has exacerbated the nuclear crisis on the Korean peninsula and laid bare the need for tough negotiators who know how to draft a real agreement, not a press release.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Authoritarianism, Leadership, Conflict, and Dictatorship
Political Geography:
Asia and North Korea

18192. 2020 Thematic Brief: US Cybersecurity Efforts

Author:
Third Way
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Third Way
Abstract:
Cybercrime is exploding. Malicious cyber actions by America’s adversaries are becoming more sophisticated. And cybersecurity remains a top national security issue for the United States. But while we are spending huge amounts of effort to secure our systems, our ability to go after attackers is woefully outdated. As COVID-19 continues to ravage the globe, malicious actors are exploiting the pandemic and committing cyberattacks for a variety of motives. Nation-states, terrorists, criminal groups, and lone actors have launched cyberattacks and committed cybercrime against large businesses and private citizens, causing devastating impacts to US national and economic security. While federal, state, and local agencies have taken steps to reduce cyber threats, the Trump Administration has not provided nearly enough resources, does not coordinate efforts, and denies risks posed to election infrastructure. Here’s what Congress must do: Go after the bad actors. We must improve the US government’s capabilities to identify, stop, and punish human cyber attackers in order to close the yawning cyber enforcement gap: the number of cyberattacks launched per year in the United States versus the number of arrests of malicious cyber actors; Secure America’s election infrastructure and combat foreign interference and disinformation efforts; and Re-establish the United States as a global leader in setting policy around how different actors should behave in cyberspace and boost international cooperation and capacity around these issues.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

18193. Incremental inclusivity in peace processes: Key lessons learnt

Author:
Andreas Schädel and Veronique Dudouet
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Berghof Foundation
Abstract:
This policy brief provides evidence-based lessons learnt and recommendations on the timing, sequencing and modalities of inclusion of nonsignatory armed groups and civil society actors in peace processes. It aims to inform a strategic understanding on how to design and implement peace processes that are effective in bringing about an inclusive political, economic and social transformation.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Civil Society, Transitional Justice, Peace, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Global Focus

18194. 2020 Thematic Brief: Preventing and Countering Terrorism

Author:
Third Way
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Third Way
Abstract:
The Trump Administration’s stated strategies to prevent and counter terrorism have largely continued the approach of the Obama Administration. However, this approach is at odds with the president’s own rhetoric and actions, which make us less safe in the long term. President Trump has verbally attacked and abandoned key allies and partners in the fight against terrorism, including the Kurds in Syria, while embracing counterproductive policies that will make it easier for terrorists to rebuild. At the same time, President Trump has largely ignored the far-right extremism that has spiked under his presidency. Even worse, he has retweeted statements that come from people associated with hate groups. Right-wing extremists, and in particular white supremacists, have caused more deaths than international terrorists in recent years.1They feel they have an ally in President Trump because he has largely refused to condemn them. During the recent protests for racial justice, he completely ignored the threat of right-wing extremists accused of killing Americans and plotting attacks against the military, while at the same time he was inflating other extremist threats.23And he blamed both sides in Charlottesville. To be clear, one side was neo-Nazis and other white supremacists. The United States needs a smart and tough approach to terrorism and extremism that includes: Prioritizing the threat of domestic extremism and dedicating resources to prevent and counter it, including by providing support to organizations working on these issues, cutting off financial flows, evaluating whether further designations of foreign right-wing organizations are warranted, and addressing extremism in the US military;4 Preventing the spread of all forms of violent extremism by addressing the root causes globally and reducing the effectiveness of recruitment efforts; Protecting the American homeland by preventing terrorist attacks and disrupting terrorist networks in the United States; and Eliminating terrorist safe havens abroad and building up the capacity of partner nations to fight terrorism on their own turf.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, Military Strategy, and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

18195. Challenges and opportunities for conflict resolution with Salafi jihadi armed groups

Author:
Veronique Dudouet and Karin Göldner-Ebenthal
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Berghof Foundation
Abstract:
This policy brief highlights recommendations for evidence-based policy making on pathways to conflict de-escalation with Salafi jihadi armed groups. It proposes a more nuanced public discussion of the topic. This brief draws mainly on the research report “Dialogue with Salafi jihadi armed groups: Challenges and opportunities for conflict de-escalation” which concludes a two-year research project based on case studies in Somalia, Syria and Mali.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Islam, Religion, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, Syria, Somalia, and Mali

18196. A Roadmap to Strengthen US Cyber Enforcement: Where Do We Go From Here?

Author:
Allison Peters and Michael Garcia
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Third Way
Abstract:
The following report is the result of a multiyear effort to define concrete steps to improve the US government’s ability to tackle the scourge of cybercrime by better identifying perpetrators and imposing meaningful consequences on them and those behind their actions
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Governance, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

18197. Central Bank Mandates, Sustainability Objectives and the Promotion of Green Finance

Author:
Simon Dikau and Ulrich Volz
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
This paper examines the extent to which addressing climate-related risks and supporting sustainable finance fit into the current set of central bank mandates and objectives. To this end, we conduct a detailed analysis of central bank mandates and objectives, using the IMF’s Central Bank Legislation Database, and compare these to current arrangements and sustainability-related policies central banks have adopted in practice. To scrutinise the alignment of mandates with climate-related policies, we differentiate between the impact of environmental factors on the conventional core objectives of central banking and a potential supportive role of central banks with regard to green finance and sustainability. Of the 135 central banks in our sample, only 12% have explicit sustainability mandates, while another 40% are mandated to support the government’s policy priorities, which in most cases include sustainability goals. However, given that climate risks can directly affect central banks’ traditional core responsibilities, most notably monetary and financial stability, even central banks without explicit or implicit sustainability objectives ought to incorporate climate-related physical and transition risks into their core policy implementation frameworks in order to efficiently and successfully safeguard macro-financial stability.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Finance, Green Technology, Sustainability, IMF, and Banking
Political Geography:
Global Focus

18198. An Analysis of the use of Chemical Pesticides and their Impact on Yields, Farmer Income and Agricultural Sustainability: The Case for Smallholder Farmers in Ethiopia

Author:
Aparna Rao and Risa Morimoto
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
In economic theory, the agricultural sector plays an undisputed role in growth, development and poverty reduction in a country. The sector is pivotal for a vast majority of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), given the large number of people dependent on agriculture for their livelihood. With the constraints on land expansion and the dual threat of climate change and an ever increasing population, agricultural productivity has become a key matter of concern in agricultural economics. Given this, a vast majority of literature focuses on improving productivity to meet food demand at any cost. A large percentage of it is focused on the use of pesticides, pre-harvest, to eradicate pests and diseases that lead to losses in the produce. As a result, there has been a significant increase in global pesticide usage over the last few years.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Economics, Poverty, Economic Theory, Sustainability, and Farming
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

18199. The Political Economy of Inequality in Chile and Mexico: Two Tales of Neoliberalism

Author:
Giorgos Gouzoulis and Collin Constantine
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
This article offers a historical and econometric study on the determinants of functional income inequality in Chile and Mexico between 1980-2011. This is the first study on the determinants of the labour share in developing economies using single- country analysis that covers the historical period before 1990. We find robust evidence that government consumption is a positive driver of the respective wage shares. Since Chile has experienced persistent cuts in government welfare as opposed to Mexico, fiscal austerity is a fundamental explanation for its falling wage share. Private debt is the second most important explanation for why wage shares have fallen in Chile. We find no evidence of this channel in the Mexican case. However, globalisation has exposed Mexico’s labour-intensive industries to wage competition and this lowers its wage share. In contrast, Chile’s commodity exports and wage share have benefitted from trade globalisation. These comparative results demonstrate the importance of country-level studies as each country’s historical evolution and varied implementation of neoliberalism can tell unique distributional stories and provide more accurate policy insights for an inclusive growth strategy.
Topic:
Political Economy, Labor Issues, Inequality, and Neoliberalism
Political Geography:
South America, North America, Mexico, and Chile

18200. The Evolution of Female Labour Force Participation in Jordan

Author:
Alma Boustati
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
The purpose of this paper is to analyse the evolution of female labour force participation in Jordan vis-à-vis institutional and economic development. When it comes to institutions, the primary focus will be on family law and labour law. Within the economic development framework, the focus will be on how the social contract motivated the structuring of the economy, labour market, and approach to welfare during three stages of Jordan’s economic development, namely the industrialisation period (1967-1982), the economic bust period (1983-1992), and the economic adjustment period (post-1993). Within each period, the implications of these factors on the composition and size of the female labour force participation is discussed. The findings indicate that a patriarchal approach to welfare, and consequently the low female labour force participation, was sustainable through economic policy which relied on high male wages and high non-wage income achieved through a combination of aid, remittances, and cheap foreign labour.
Topic:
Economics, Gender Issues, Labor Issues, Women, and Welfare
Political Geography:
Middle East and Jordan