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17801. 2020 Election: Achieving a Safe, Accessible, and Credible Election during COVID-19

Author:
Committee for Economic Development of the Conference Board
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The 2020 general election is already underway, with absentee ballots being mailed out and collected in some states. And what seemed worryingly possible in the spring is now inevitable: the COVID-19 pandemic will be an important factor in the conduct of this fall’s election. Every community must address the public health threat and facilitate safe participation. Policymakers, election officials, and business leaders must ensure that voters need not choose between exercising their franchise and protecting their health, and that the election itself does not further spread COVID-19.1 The Committee for Economic Development of The Conference Board (CED) strongly believes that transparent, fair, and accessible elections are fundamental to the confidence of US citizens in their government and its leadership, and to the long-term health of the US economy. In May, June, and July, CED called on Congress to provide states with funding to conduct a safe, accessible, and credible election in the midst of a pandemic. With the election in progress, and Election Day less than two months away, the states and local communities, with or without federal support—including leaders in the business community—must act to meet those goals. As explained in this Solutions Brief, there is still time to protect voters and poll workers and maintain trust in the conduct and outcome of elections. Fortunately, effective measures are already in force in pockets of the country, with states and election officials needing only to replicate the best preparations and practices nationwide. This brief outlines recommendations policymakers should adopt to improve operations in their jurisdictions. Given the public health challenges involved, business leaders will also play a critical role in protecting their employees, customers, and communities during a successful election. To the extent possible, business leaders should take the concrete steps outlined in the brief to assist in the election effort.
Topic:
Elections, Economy, Business, Domestic Politics, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

17802. What to Expect: The Biden Health Care Program

Author:
Committee for Economic Development of the Conference Board
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
During the primary campaign, Biden engaged in a lively debate over the future of the US health care system with the other Democratic contenders. No candidate for the Democratic nomination expressed satisfaction with the current system; the differences among the candidates centered on the degree of change that they advocated. The dissatisfactions of all of the candidates included the cost of and access to care, as well as the quality of care that Americans receive. Several of candidate Biden’s opponents advocated a fundamental shift to a “Medicare for All” program, which would abolish private insurance outright and instead put every American onto an administered-price, fee-for-service system like today’s traditional Medicare, with broad coverage of services (adding vision, dental and long-term care coverage) and no (or very low) deductibles and copayments. (Even the current popular Medicare Advantage program would be abolished, and all of its senior enrollees would be forced onto Medicare for All.) Then in the general election campaign, President Donald Trump tried to associate former Vice President Biden with the Medicare for All proposal, but the Vice President countered aggressively that he had campaigned and won against Medicare for All in the primaries.
Topic:
Health Care Policy, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

17803. Coronavirus Policy Under a Biden Administration

Author:
Committee for Economic Development of the Conference Board
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
now appears almost certain that former Vice President Joe Biden will assume the office of President on January 20 of next year. The President-elect today announced the membership of a new thirteenmember advisory board of non-governmental experts to develop recommendations so that they can be implemented by his new Administration, further emphasizing that this is the priority focus of his transition. This memo, covering the handling of the coronavirus pandemic, is the first in a series of short pieces to explain what you can expect from the new Administration. Candidate Biden’s campaign laid out in considerable detail a five-point program (counting the number of major headings in the document; some news outlets specified six) for how he would attack the pandemic, which was claimed to be sharply different from the practices under the Trump Administration. President-elect Biden yesterday stood up his new transition website, with what is now characterized as a seven-point plan, which is shorter (a little more than one-seventh the word count) and less-detailed than the campaign document. And the President-elect today announced the membership of a new thirteen-member advisory board of non-governmental experts to develop these recommendations so that they can be implemented by his new Administration.
Topic:
Health Care Policy, Elections, Public Health, COVID-19, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

17804. The Economic Impact of COVID on Women in the Workforce

Author:
Elizabeth Crofoot
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
Women are heavily concentrated in COVID-19 affected industries. Three groups of women have been most impacted: Mothers, especially of young children; Women in senior level positions; Minority women, especially blacks and Latinas, who are more likely to be sole earner head of households. Women’s patchwork of childcare has fallen apart. Women have taken on a greater share of childcare and home responsibilities than men. Stepping out or back from the workforce threatens to reverse women’s progress during the recent historic economic expansion.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Women, Inequality, COVID-19, and Workforce
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

17805. First Hundred Days Plan

Author:
Committee for Economic Development of the Conference Board
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The Committee for Economic Development of The Conference Board prepared the following analysis and recommendations in the spirit of our founding members, America’s foremost business leaders during World War II, who came together to solve our nation’s crucial postwar economic and social challenges. Similarly, business leaders today, hand-in-hand with policymakers and the American public, must provide a thoughtful response to the COVID-19 crisis and restore confidence in capitalism and our democratic institutions. CED respectfully offers its nonpartisan analysis and recommendations for the first 100 days of the new administration to build a stronger, more resilient, and more responsive economy that provides opportunity and prosperity for all Americans. The objective is to overcome the public health challenge, safely reopen the economy, and get our nation on a path to high levels of employment, production, and consumption—to put our country back to work safely, making capitalism benefit all Americans.
Topic:
Employment, Capitalism, Economy, Public Health, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

17806. COVID-19’s Impact on Women in the Workplace: Avoiding a Major Setback

Author:
Committee for Economic Development of the Conference Board
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The disproportionate impact of COVID-19 on industries where women are heavily concentrated combined with the virus’s debilitating impact on child care options and in-person schooling threatens progress in the integration and representation of women in the US economy. Even if the reversal proves temporary, as is likely, the career consequences of the pandemic for individual women could have long-lasting effects and slow future progress.1 When talented workers sit on the sidelines or are prevented from fully contributing to the workforce, those workers are not the only ones affected. The economic strength of the entire nation suffers for the duration of those workers’ entire careers, and employers miss out on an important competitive resource. Thus, the impact of COVID-19 on women is a first-order national concern. Women are a vital part of the American labor force, both as nearly half of workers, and, as the primary facilitators of work by others through formal and informal caretaking roles. Even if progress in more fully integrating women into all aspects and levels of the economy has, at times, been slow, it has also been one of the most important sources of strength for the American economy over the past half century.3 The continued lowering of barriers and further economic integration of women into all fields and roles in proportion to their talents remains one of the surest paths to increasing the size, skill, and contributions to innovation of the American workforce.4
Topic:
Women, Employment, Inequality, Economy, COVID-19, and Workforce
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

17807. Today’s Infrastructure Improvements Will Drive Tomorrow’s Economy

Author:
Committee for Economic Development of the Conference Board
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
Few issues enjoy such broad bipartisan consensus as the failings of American infrastructure. Roughly two-thirds of Americans rate their own local roads as only in fair or poor condition, and a similar proportion say that the country is not doing enough to meet infrastructure needs, making infrastructure a top-tier issue in 2020. With Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin signaling that infrastructure spending is a priority for the administration if economic stimulus is required to address slowdowns in the economy due to COVID-19, the US approach to infrastructure projects is poised to become an even more pressing issue. Modern, effective infrastructure is an essential requirement for national commerce—and for growing and widely shared prosperity—even as changes in technology drive changes in infrastructure requirements. While definitions vary, a 2019 Trump administration executive order defined infrastructure projects as those relating to surface transportation; aviation; ports; water resources projects; energy production, generation, storage, transmission, and distribution; broadband internet; pipelines; stormwater and sewer infrastructure; drinking water infrastructure; and cybersecurity. Efficient investment in cutting-edge infrastructure connects businesses and workers to more opportunities, increases productivity, and undergirds American competitiveness. Thus, US infrastructure is vital to sustain capitalism and maintain US economic leadership. However, the US routinely lags other advanced nations in infrastructure quality and, when considering the size of its economy, infrastructure investment.
Topic:
Economics, Infrastructure, and Economy
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

17808. Smart Regulation in a Post-COVID-19 Economy

Author:
Committee for Economic Development of the Conference Board
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic has put regulation issues front and center in every American’s life. Within a few short weeks, 41 out of 50 states have issued stay-at-home orders,1 and regulations governing many other aspects of all Americans’ public lives are now imposed because of COVID-19. Among a long list of constraints, nonessential businesses, many of them small businesses, have been required to cease or sharply curtail their services. Schools have been closed, access to parks and outdoor spaces has been restricted, and other staples of all Americans’ public lives, including large gatherings, have been restricted. On the other hand, and more than ever before, Americans have seen other regulations lifted rapidly, particularly in the heavily regulated health care sector. Constraints on testing, laboratories, out-of-state health care workers, vaccine R&D, telemedicine, ventilator production, and infrastructure expansion have been relaxed. Even more extensive relief has addressed the unprecedented havoc that COVID-19 has unleashed on American society, public health, and the economy. Restrictions on work at home, online courses at colleges and universities, the transport of food and alcohol, and hours truck drivers can be on the road are all being lifted or relaxed to meet the demands of the crisis. Restrictions on the production of hand sanitizer and the amount that the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) allows passengers to carry on airplanes have also been relaxed.
Topic:
Regulation, Economy, Business, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

17809. Technology and Innovation Solutions Must Lead the Way to COVID-19 Recovery

Author:
Committee for Economic Development of the Conference Board
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic is disrupting the US and world economy with unprecedented speed and scope, drastically altering the daily experiences of millions of Americans. As private and public leaders in the US race to suppress the outbreak and begin reopening the economy, educators, employers, and service providers are seeking new or different ways of doing business to preserve learning, productivity, and well-being. Aided by US capitalism’s long history of boundary-pushing advancements in science and technology, the US response—ranging from tracking the virus’s spread to shifting commerce to virtual tools and platforms—will draw on rapid adoption, adaptation, or improvement of technologies as well as faster-paced innovation. Under pressure of the public health crisis, many organizations will accelerate technologies in their daily practice, advancing the timeline for cutting-edge business and social services. America is in a strong position to innovate to address this and future pandemics. However, it must also address the spotlight COVID-19 has shone on critical shortcomings with US technology, its accessibility, the regulations governing its application and use, and the privacy and public health trade-offs for policy makers and private sector leaders. As this report explains, policy makers and business leaders must address these critical shortcomings with new approaches including: Funding states and localities so all Americans have access to broadband during lockdowns to access services and distance learning; a “digital divide” that was problematic before the crisis is crucial during social and economic restrictions when even some basic services are provided only remotely; Changing regulations—some temporarily, others permanently—to support innovation and experimentation to address the immediate and potential future public health crises, including relaxing restrictions to speed vaccine development, expanding telemedicine, and improving monitoring and tracking of the outbreak; Removing unnecessary roadblocks to faster and more effective adoption of digital tools to improve remote work, medicine, and learning capabilities while protecting data privacy; and Replacing outdated public-sector IT systems to increase flexibility and reliability in providing relief and serving families and businesses. After this crisis, technological innovation will remain critical to the nation’s economic strength—ensuring that the US remains globally competitive and achieves prosperity. The US must use this moment as a turning point, not only to address the immediate crisis but to bolster its technology and innovation edge to compete globally and respond to unforeseen challenges and crises in the long term.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Business, Innovation, COVID-19, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

17810. Next Steps for US-Japan Collaboration on Energy Infrastructure

Author:
Courtney Weatherby
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has re-centered discussion of geopolitical competition in Asia around infrastructure. Responding both to BRI and the region’s well-known infrastructure gap, the United States has launched efforts to unlock US private investment for infrastructure. Japan’s engagements in the region emphasize high-quality infrastructure and best practices (an implicit criticism of China’s sometimes less rigorous standards). The foreign policy approaches of the United States and Japan dovetail nicely and have led to many new initiatives and institutional partnerships, as well as the quality-focused Blue Dot Network. But despite the two countries’ intentions to work collaboratively, their efforts have been held back by differences in organizational practices, the lengthy overhaul of US financing, and a lack of immediate movement from US-Japan consortia. For now, a less ambitious approach of closely coordinating technical assistance and conditional funding on proposed projects may serve as a model for closer US-Japan collaboration as efforts mature.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Energy Policy, Bilateral Relations, Infrastructure, Geopolitics, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Renewable Energy, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Asia, and United States of America

17811. Can ASEAN Expand Vocational Training to Help Workers Survive Automation and AI?

Author:
William 'Whit' Lloyd
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have cumulatively vaulted from the world’s seventh-largest economy to the fifth, in 2019, in only three years. But several challenges threaten future economic growth. Chief among them is demographic change: populations across ASEAN are aging and birthrates are declining. One outcome will be labor shortages. The shrinking labor pool could serve as a strong driver for automation. But while automation may reduce input costs and boost growth, it could change the skills employers desire, resulting in the obsolescence of many low-skilled jobs, leaving current workers without the skills necessary to obtain work. Upskilling labor through vocational education and related programs is the obvious response. But ASEAN education systems have never included significant vocational opportunities. With technological change accelerating, ASEAN states will need help with the herculean task of rapidly remodeling their education systems.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Employment, Vocational Training, Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

17812. Climate Change in Palau: Indicators and Considerations for Key Sectors

Author:
Wendy Miles, Zena Grecni, Erbai Xavier Matsutaro, Patrick Colin, Victoria Keener, and Yimnang Golbuu
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Higher temperatures, stronger typhoons, coral reef loss, and coastal flooding are among the major challenges detailed in a new report on climate change in the Republic of Palau. Threatened resources include low-lying coastal infrastructure and the millions of dollars that ocean ecosystems add to Palau’s economy annually, according to the report by the Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment (PIRCA), a consortium of government, NGO, and research entities. Climate Change in Palau: Indicators and Considerations for Key Sectors is one in a series of new PIRCA reports aimed at assessing the state of knowledge about climate change indicators, impacts, and adaptive capacity of the US-Affiliated Pacific Islands and the Hawaiian archipelago. Authors from the Republic of Palau’s Office of Climate Change, the Coral Reef Research Foundation, the Palau International Coral Reef Center, and the East-West Center—along with 30 technical contributors from government and nongovernmental organizations, research, and community groups—collaboratively developed the Palau PIRCA report. Key climate change issues affecting Palau include hotter conditions, stronger typhoons, threats to coastal infrastructure, and declining ocean ecosystem health. Climate change is expected to disrupt many aspects of life in Palau. Those who are already vulnerable—including children, the elderly, low-income families, and individuals with disabilities—are at greater risk from extreme weather and climate events. Climate Change in Palau: Indicators and Considerations for Key Sectors provides guidance for decision-makers seeking to better understand the implications of climate variability and change for Palau and its communities. This assessment also identifies the additional information and research needed to support responses that enhance resilience and help Palau to withstand the changes to come.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Infrastructure, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
Asia-Pacific and Palau

17813. Climate Change in Guam: Indicators and Considerations for Key Sectors

Author:
Zena Grecni, Wendy Miles, Romina King, Abby G. Frazier, and Victoria Keener
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Hotter weather, risks to freshwater supplies, coral reef death, and stronger typhoons are among the major challenges detailed in a new report on climate change in Guam. Threatened resources include high-value coastal infrastructure and the millions of dollars that ocean ecosystems add to Guam’s economy annually, according to the report by the Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment (PIRCA), a consortium of several government, NGO, and research entities. Climate Change in Guam: Indicators and Considerations for Key Sectors is one in a series of new PIRCA reports aimed at assessing the state of knowledge about climate change indicators, impacts, and adaptive capacity of the US-Affiliated Pacific Islands and the Hawaiian archipelago. Authors from the University of Guam and the East-West Center—along with more than 30 technical contributors from local governments, NGOs, researchers, and community groups—collaboratively developed the Guam PIRCA report. Key climate change issues affecting Guam include threats to human health, risks to freshwater resources, increasing wildfire, and the potential for damage to infrastructure caused by future sea level rise and stronger typhoons. Climate change is expected to disrupt many aspects of life in Guam. Those who are already vulnerable are harmed more than others by extreme weather and climate shifts. Climate Change in Guam: Indicators and Considerations for Key Sectors provides guidance for decision-makers seeking to better understand how climate variability and change impact Guam and its communities. This assessment also identifies needs for additional information and research, which if met could support responses that enhance resilience and help Guam to withstand the changes to come.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Infrastructure, and Economy
Political Geography:
Asia-Pacific and Guam

17814. A Search for Independence in President Duterte’s Foreign Policy

Author:
Denise Layla P. Miram
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The Duterte administraƟon’s move toward favoring non‐tradiƟonal partners above other equally valuable— and perhaps more beneficial—trade and development partners, such as the United States and the European Union, has significantly changed the direcƟon of the country’s foreign policy and impacted its naƟonal security. While the government maintains that it is pursuing an “independent foreign policy”, many experts have criƟcized the administraƟon’s supposed strategy for its lack of clarity and posiƟon. In the absence of clear guidelines and a well‐defined vision, the administraƟon has merely pivoted away from one superpower, its treaty ally in the US, to global superpowers China and Russia.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Foreign Direct Investment, European Union, Trade, and Rodrigo Duterte
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Philippines, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

17815. Philippine Diplomacy and Foreign Policy: “Quo Vadis?”

Author:
Reiñer Subijano
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
In the last week of July, 2020, an “online war” arose between Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs Teodoro Locsin, Jr. and Malaysian Foreign Affairs Minister Hishammuddin Hussein over a simple tweet from the U.S. Embassy in Manila, regarding a donation from the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) to returning Filipino repatriates “from Sabah, Malaysia.” The tweet sparked an enraged response from Secretary Locsin, who replied that “Sabah is not in Malaysia if you want to have anything to do with the Philippines.” Two days later, Minister Hussein tweeted that “Sabah is, and will always be, part of Malaysia”, qualifying Secretary Locsin’s tweet as an “irresponsible statement that affects bilateral ties.” While the two parties have summoned each other’s representatives for an explanation on the matter, the case of Sabah raises fundamental questions about the direction of the country’s foreign policies.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Philippines, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

17816. Regional Development Performance in Council Areas of Scotland with the Highest Percentage of Gaelic Speakers

Author:
Craig Willis
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
Abstract:
Research on Gaelic language in Scotland has increased substantially in recent decades, as has Scottish regional development programmes following devolution. However, the overlapping of these two aspects remains limited, particularly in the context of regional development data available on regions where Scottish Gaelic speakers mostly reside. This Research Paper uses the OECD Regional Wellbeing index as a framework to measure regional development in Scotland at the level of council area, comparing this with its percentage of Gaelic speakers. Equivalent data for eight of the eleven OECD topics is analysed and the focus is placed on the three council areas with significant Gaelic speaking populations – Argyll and Bute, Na h-Eileanan Siar and Highland. The results show that these three regions consistently perform average or good across the eight topics measured, in comparison to the national average in Scotland. This demonstrates that Gaelic language is not a hindrance to development and the three regions perform comparably to other remote council areas such as the Orkney and Shetland Islands.
Topic:
Development, Minorities, Language, Regionalism, and Identity
Political Geography:
Britain, United Kingdom, Europe, and Scotland

17817. Economic Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Roma Communities in Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Ukraine

Author:
Craig Willis
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
Abstract:
This Research Paper focuses on economic effects experienced by Roma communities in seven non-EU states during the COVID-19 pandemic and states’ consequent lockdown measures in the first half of 2020. Roma communities in Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Ukraine, were all facing socio-economic exclusion and marginalisation before the pandemic and international organisations were warning very early on that Roma communities were at serious risk during the pandemic, including in the fields of employment or loss of income. This research paper uses primary data collected from a survey of 440 Roma individuals across the seven states in order to add empirical evidence to an under-researched area. The main findings include that almost 73% of them experienced a reduced income and the major reason for this was due to access to or demand for informal work was hindered by the lockdowns. Moreover, most Roma who needed to borrow money did so through private means (family and friends) rather than through official or state institutions.
Topic:
Economics, Minorities, Ethnicity, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Identity
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, Serbia, Albania, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and North Macedonia

17818. Inclusion in Crisis: The Case of Irish Travellers during the First Months of the Covid-19 Pandemic

Author:
Akofa Boglo
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
Abstract:
Since the World Health Organisation characterised Covid-19 as a pandemic in early 2020 (WHO, 2020), the spread of the virus and efforts to control it have necessitated an ongoing restructuring of interactions between individuals, communities and entire societies. The pandemic has been an inconvenience for some and a disaster for others. Minority communities in particular have increasingly been shown to be disproportionately affected by the direct and indirect impact of the virus, which has highlighted and exacerbated existing inequalities. This paper aims to add to efforts to understand the impact of this multi-faceted crisis on societies and in particular minority communities through an assessment of the space between government and minority community responses in the Republic of Ireland. By considering how Traveller organisations have worked to protect the Traveller community, and the extent to which this effort was met and supported by the Government of Ireland’s ‘governance response’ during the first ‘wave’ of the pandemic, this case study aims to contribute to understandings of minority agency and inclusion in liberal democratic societies both during and outside of times of crisis, and hopes to show that moments of upheaval are not by necessity points of deterioration for minorities, but can carry the potential for more inclusive practices, processes and societies moving forward.
Topic:
Minorities, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, Identity, and Travel
Political Geography:
Europe and Ireland

17819. United States‐Japan Cooperation on Democracy and Equity Should Tackle Gender and Racial Justice

Author:
Kristin Wilson and Jackie F. Steele
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The U.S.-Japan alliance is viewed as a cornerstone of stability, the rule of law, and promotion of democracy in the Indo-Pacific. The new U.S. administration presents an important opportunity to strengthen and refocus relationships and initiatives in the region as they aim to tackle the challenges of an assertive China. In the context of globalization and transnational social justice movements, there is no longer such a clear delineation between the politics of domestic issues, such as political underrepresentation and minority rights, and those affecting foreign policy. Under the new administration, the United States and Japan have ample opportunity to reinvigorate democratic advancement, especially on gender and racial justice. To this end, civil society and social movement groups play a key role in demonstrating why only democracy can ensure the sustainability of representative institutions, cohesive societies, and inclusive economies driven by innovation and opportunity. Historically, these groups have been essential to promoting democratization within the alliance and in the Indo-Pacific region. On issues of gender justice, transnational feminist and human rights networks brought global attention to the comfort women issue starting in the 1980s. Linkages between groups in the United States, Korea, and Japan have strengthed calls for justice for the comfort women and highlighted the delegitimacy of previous backroom deals on the issue—such as the 1965 treaty with then South Korean dictator, Park Chung-hee, and the private negotiations between PM Abe and President Park in 2015. These movements for social justice underscored the growing role played by transnational civil society in international affairs and they raised the bar on the level of transparency and meaningful inclusion necessary to resolve such deep-rooted conflicts.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Human Rights, International Cooperation, Race, Bilateral Relations, Democracy, and Alliance
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

17820. Japan’s Counter‐Strike Debate amid the post‐Prime Minister Abe Leadership Race

Author:
Yoichiro Sato
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Japanese Defense Minister Taro Kono on June 15 announced the cancellation of the planned procurement of two Aegis Ashore systems from the United States. The cancellation, which reportedly was discussed and decided only by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga in advance, left a gap in the country’s missile defense against the growing missile threats from its neighbors. The Aegis Ashore decision prompted the government to revise the National Security Strategy (NSS) within 2020. As the NSS is the basis for the National Defense Program Outline (NDPO), the latter is also being revised. Kono in the Lower House Committee on Security on July 8 testified that policy considerations by the government would include possession of “enemy base strike capabilities.” The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) subsequently formed a project team (PT) on missile defense, chaired by former Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera. The PT discussions produced by the end of July a set of recommendations inclusive of a more vaguely phrased “consideration of the ability to head off missiles in enemy territory,” which became the LDP recommendation to the government.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, and United States of America

17821. The United States and Fiji Reaffirm Security Assistance Cooperation

Author:
Steven McGann
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The United States and Fiji continue to strengthen security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region. Ties between the regional partners endured throughout Fiji’s 2006 military takeover and resultant domestic political challenges. During this period Washington’s engagement with Suva included humanitarian assistance/disaster response, maritime security, law enforcement cooperation, counter-narcotics, and anti-trafficking of vulnerable populations. The United States also supported Fiji’s participation in existing United Nations Peacekeeping Operations. In turn Fiji continued to support U.S. initiatives regarding United Nations General Assembly resolutions and kept doors open for development aid and private sector investment opportunities. The recent defense security cooperation assistance agreement with Fiji supports substantial funding for training and equipment for the Royal Fijian Military forces (RFMF) for future peacekeeping opportunities as well as an immediate boost for its navy including patrol boats to support fisheries protection as well as search and rescue efforts.
Topic:
Security, Humanitarian Aid, International Cooperation, Investment, and Private Sector
Political Geography:
North America, United States of America, and Fiji

17822. Forward the Mekong-U.S. Partnership

Author:
Brian Eyler and Courtney Weatherby
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
On September 11, 2020 the United States, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam, and the ASEAN Secretariat launched the Mekong-US Partnership, a regional cooperation framework which upgrades the Obama-era Lower Mekong Initiative (LMI). The U.S. Department of State says the Partnership will expand on the success of the LMI “by strengthening the autonomy, economic independence, and sustainable development of the Mekong partner countries and promote a transparent, rules-based approach to transboundary challenges.” The new Partnership comes with an initial pledge of more than $150 million of U.S. funded programming to support COVID-19 recovery, counter transnational crimes, develop efficient energy markets, and counter trafficking in persons. A revitalization and upscaling of U.S. engagement in the Mekong is long overdue, particularly given China’s increasing engagement in the region and the economic challenges that Mekong countries will struggle with as a result of the coronavirus pandemic and chronic drought conditions. While the Partnership is still in its formative stages, there are several actions that would go a long way towards bolstering its effectiveness.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Partnerships, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, Southeast Asia, Laos, Myanmar, United States of America, and Mekong River

17823. From Transparent to Transparency: The Evolution of the Mekong River Commission's Prior Consultation Process

Author:
An Pich Hatda
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
An Pich Hatda, CEO of the Mekong River Commission, explains that: “The mainstream hydrology is changing, affecting the timing and volume of reverse flows into the Tonle Sap Lake, and making any definition of the wet and dry seasons a moving target.” Chapter III of the 1995 Mekong Agreement outlines the objectives and principles that underpin transboundary governance in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB). But the powers and functions outlined in the Agreement and the Rules of Procedures for the standing bodies, and the non-interventionist approach that underpins diplomacy in the region, dictate how this is done. While Chapter III of the Agreement outlines the intentions of transboundary governance, the more detailed processes that underpin water diplomacy were deferred to agreement on Rules for Water Utilisation and Inter-Basin Diversion, now the five MRC Procedures. These took another 20 years to finalize. The Procedures for Notification, Prior Consultation, and Agreement (PNPCA) may pose some of the biggest challenges for the Mekong River Commission (MRC). The Member Countries envisaged three forms of inter-State dialogue: Notification: applied to all uses on the tributaries and intra-basin use in the wet season; Prior Consultation (PC): applied to intra-basin use in the dry season, and inter-basin diversion of water in the wet season; and Agreement: applied to inter-basin use in the dry season.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Environment, Governance, Borders, and Transparency
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Mekong River

17824. United States-Canada Transboundary Water Governance Prioritizes Stakeholder Engagement

Author:
Jane Corwin
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
A review of the construct and functionality of the International Joint Commission may offer an example of effective water governance to be emulated in the Indo-Pacific Region. As water knows no boundaries nor political authority, collaboration across borders is necessary in order to manage water apportionment, flood/drought mitigation, and water quality in transboundary waters. Additionally, the importance of effective water governance will only increase with a changing climate. The governments of the United States and Canada recognized this in 1909 with the signing of the Boundary Waters Treaty (BWT). In the BWT, the governments established the mechanism by which the two countries would jointly manage their common waters. The governments created the International Joint Commission (IJC) to be one of those mechanisms. Further affirmation of the need for cross boundary cooperation resulted in the signing of the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement in 1972, most recently updated in 2012, which directs the IJC to assess progress and garner public input to achieve water quality objectives established by the two governments. The BWT gives the IJC power to resolve water disputes through Orders of Approval and References.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Territorial Disputes, Governance, and Borders
Political Geography:
Canada and United States of America

17825. Negotiating Transboundary River Governance in Myanmar

Author:
Khin Ohnmar Htwe
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Myanmar lies in the northwestern part of Indo-Chinese Peninsular or mainland South-East Asia. It is bounded by China on the north and north-east, Laos on the east, Thailand on the south-east, and Bangladesh and India on the west. There are 7 major drainage areas or catchment areas in Myanmar comprising a series of river- valleys running from north to south. The drainage areas in Myanmar are Ayeyarwady and Chindwin Rivers and tributaries (55.05%), Thanlwin (Salween) River and tributaries (18.43%), Sittaung River and tributaries (5.38%), Kaladan and Lemyo Rivers and tributaries (3.76%), Yangon River and tributaries (2.96%), Tanintharyi River and tributaries (2.66%), and Minor Coastal Streams (11.76%). Myanmar possesses 12% of Asia’s fresh water resources and 16% of that of the ASEAN nations. Growing nationwide demand for fresh water has heightened the challenges of water security. The transboundary river basins along the border line of Myanmar and neighboring countries are the Mekong, Thanlwin (Salween), Thaungyin (Moai), Naf, and Manipu rivers. The Mekong River is also an important transboundary river for Myanmar which it shares with China, Laos, and Thailand. The Mekong River, with a length of about 2,700 miles (4,350 km), rises in southeastern Qinghai Province, China, flows through the eastern part of the Tibet Autonomous Region and Yunnan Province, and forms part of the international border between Myanmar (Burma) and Laos, as well as between Laos and Thailand. The Mekong River meets the China–Myanmar border and flows about six miles along that border until it reaches the tripoint of China, Myanmar, and Laos. From there it flows southwest and forms the border of Myanmar and Laos for about 60 miles until it arrives at the tripoint of Myanmar, Laos, and Thailand. This is also the point of confluence between the Ruak River (which follows the Thai–Myanmar border) and the Mekong.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Water, Governance, and Borders
Political Geography:
Bangladesh, China, India, Thailand, Southeast Asia, Laos, and Myanmar

17826. Stakeholder engagement in the Mekong River: Relevant Findings from the Blue Peace Index

Author:
Matus Samel
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Water management and transboundary water cooperation affect people’s rights, and projects must balance the needs of different sectors of society. The Blue Peace Index, developed by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) with support from the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC), highlights that major tensions over water resources often arise not between states, but rather governments or commercial developers on the one hand, and affected communities on the other, or between communities themselves. Protests and tensions related to issues like pollution, inadequate resettlement logistics, and damage to livelihoods, have affected water infrastructure developments across the world. In pursuing sustainable and collaborative management of transboundary waters, inclusive participation of legitimate stakeholders is essential. In the Mekong River, top-down basin-level stakeholder engagement has been limited by the fact that the river’s upstream states, China and Myanmar, are only “dialogue partners”, not full members, of the Mekong River Commission (MRC), alongside the riparian neighbors Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam. Despite some positive developments in recent years with regards to basin-level dialogue through both the MRC and the Lancang–Mekong Cooperation Framework – a development and investment initiative promoted by China since 2016 as a platform for all Mekong riparian states – the lack of a single comprehensive platform for basin-level dialogue remains a major challenge to transboundary water cooperation, including in terms of stakeholder engagement.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Borders, Management, Dialogue, and Stakeholders
Political Geography:
Mekong River

17827. The Need to Move from Water Government to Water Governance Involving Civil Society

Author:
Leonie Pearson
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
With over 780 million people dependent on transboundary rivers in South and Southeast Asia, water governance is vital to regional development. Yet, the current approach to water governance is dominated by state-centric actors (sometimes called the “hydrocracy”) and is not delivering sustainable water management for people or ecosystems. The so-called “hydrocracy” is a mix of government, bureaucrats, politicians, and national development banks, often aligned with private developers. They have established strong processes for governing transboundary water and are focused on maintaining the cyclical planning-to-construction of large infrastructure projects, e.g. dams, hydropower plants, bridges, etc. These state-centric actors are focused on delivering water allocation, utilisation and management with a clear agenda of ‘the state has a duty to develop its water resources’ for national economic development. For many, the state-centric actors are delivering the governmental agenda. Therefore, it is not governance that is managing transboundary water in Asia, but government.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, Government, Water, and Governance
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia

17828. Stakeholder Engagement on Transboundary Water Management in Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam

Author:
Jake Brunner and Raphaël Glémet
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The International Union for Conservation of Nature’s (IUCN) Swiss-funded Building River Dialogue and Governance (BRIDGE) program supports countries that share river or lake basins to implement effective water management arrangements through a shared vision, benefit-sharing principles, and transparent and coherent institutional frameworks. BRIDGE works in 15 large transboundary river basins globally, including the Mekong. Within the Mekong, BRIDGE focuses on the Sekong, Sesan and Srepok (3S) river basins in Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam. Covering 10% of the Mekong river basin, the 3S provide 20% of its flow and a similar proportion of its suspended sediment. These rivers are also spawning grounds for many migratory fish species and freshwater biodiversity hotspots. As in the Mekong basin as a whole, water management in the 3S is dominated by government agencies and allied businesses whose interests are narrowly institutional. This has two consequences: investment decisions that only consider the institutional or national benefit may have large negative transboundary externalities, and appeals to the impact of upstream projects on biodiversity and livelihoods downstream tend to fall on deaf ears.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Natural Resources, Water, and Stakeholders
Political Geography:
Vietnam, Cambodia, Southeast Asia, and Laos

17829. Lessons from Australia’s Intra‐Country Transboundary Rivers Governance

Author:
John Dore
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Australia is a federation of 25 million people and a pre-Covid-19 GDP of $1.4 trillion. In practice, state and federal governments have to work together. Australia also has a highly variable climate and hydrology. Increasingly irregular rainfall and high rates of evaporation result in the lowest run-off among inhabited continents. The Murray Darling Basin (MDB) covers nearly 400,000 square miles of south-eastern Australia, twice the land area of Thailand. It contains the largest and most complex river system in Australia, with 50,000 miles of rivers, many of which are connected. The MDB includes 16 internationally significant wetlands, 35 endangered species and 98 different species of waterbirds. First Nations people have lived in what we now call the MDB for over 50,000 years and the basin contains many sacred and spiritually significant sites. The MDB has been the site of most Australian transboundary water governance experiences, with 6 governments involved: Federal, four states, and one territory—the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). For about 160 years there have been agreements and plans about how much water can be used from the River Murray and the Basin as a whole. Over the decades more and more water was being extracted. The health of the Murray Darling system was in decline.
Topic:
Environment, Natural Resources, and Governance
Political Geography:
Australia and Thailand

17830. A Role Model for Water Governance in a Shared Basin: the Example of the Danube

Author:
Ivan Zavadsky
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) is the largest transnational river basin management body in Europe. Its work is based on the Danube River Protection Convention (DRPC), signed on June 29, 1994 in Sofia, Bulgaria, the major legal instrument for cooperation and transboundary water management in the Danube River Basin. The ICPDR was established in 1998. The Convention was signed by eleven countries: Austria, Germany, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Moldova, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine, and the European Union. Serbia joined the Convention in 2003, followed by Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2005. Montenegro became the 14th ICPDR member in 2008. The ICPDR is formally comprised by the Delegations of all Contracting Parties to the DRPC. The ultimate goal of the ICPDR is to implement the Danube River Protection Convention, and make it a “living” instrument. The mission of the institution is to promote and coordinate sustainable and equitable water management, including conservation, and improvement and rational use of waters for the benefit of the Danube River Basin countries and their people. The ICPDR pursues its mission by making recommendations for the improvement of water quality, developing mechanisms for flood and accident control, agreeing on standards for emissions, and by assuring that these measures are reflected in the Contracting Parties’ national legislation and are applied in their policies.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Natural Resources, Water, Governance, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe

17831. Riparian Governance in South Asia: Many Rivers to Cross

Author:
Rajiv Bhatia
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Governance of transboundary rivers in South Asia is both complex and challenging due to a peculiar mix of imperatives relating to geography, demographics, and geopolitics. Hosting a quarter of the world’s population, the region, however, has no choice but to improve its record of riparian governance if it is to contribute more to the world’s well-being and its own.
Topic:
Demographics, Water, Governance, Geopolitics, and Geography
Political Geography:
South Asia

17832. Measuring Shinzo Abe’s Impact on the Indo‐Pacific

Author:
John Hemmings
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Last month’s news that Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was stepping down came like a thunderbolt from the blue. Once again, a health condition that had compelled him to step down in 2007, resurfaced. Whatever else one might say about Abe ‘the politician’ or Abe ‘the nationalist’, one cannot refute the fact that Abe the ‘grand strategist’ has had the most impact on Japan’s security posture since the Second World War. Of course, the question will be how Yoshihide Suga - his successor - adjusts Japan's grand strategy in coming months before he calls an election. One thing is already obvious, Suga – and, indeed, the next generation of future prime ministers – will have to live with Abe’s legacy in one form or another. This is all a long way from 2007, when Abe’s one-year premiership was already in the rear-view mirror. Even as he recovered his health, there were whispers in the corridors of Kasumigaseki that he intended to make a comeback and become prime minister again. At the time, many Japan-watchers were skeptical about his chances. His first year had not been particularly successful or popular. Indeed, the loss of the Upper House to the opposition Democratic Party of Japan had paved the way for their electoral in in 2009. Despite this inauspicious beginning, not only did Abe challenge his doubters by successfully running for LDP leadership in September 2012 but he campaigned on a slogan of “take back Japan” in November and won the premiership back in 2012.
Topic:
Security, Elections, and Grand Strategy
Political Geography:
Japan and Indo-Pacific

17833. How Market Sentiment Drives Forecasts of Stock Returns

Author:
Roman Frydman, Nicholas Mangee, and Josh Stillwagon
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
We reveal a novel channel through which market participants’ sentiment influences how they forecast stock returns: their optimism (pessimism) affects the weights they assign to fundamentals. Our analysis yields four main findings. First, if good (bad) “news” about dividends and interest rates coincides with participants’ optimism (pessimism), the news about these fundamentals has a significant effect on participants’ forecasts of future returns and has the expected signs (positive for dividends and negative for interest rates). Second, in models without interactions, or when market sentiment is neutral or conflicts with news about dividends and/or interest rates, this news often does not have a significant effect on ex ante or ex post returns. Third, market sentiment is largely unrelated to the state of economic activity, indicating that it is driven by non-fundamental considerations. Moreover, market sentiment influences stock returns highly irregularly, in terms of both timing and magnitude. This finding supports recent theoretical approaches recognizing that economists and market participants alike face Knightian uncertainty about the correct model driving stock returns.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, and Stock Markets
Political Geography:
United States

17834. Challenges to the Middle East North Africa Inclusionary State

Author:
Marc Lynch, Bassel Salloukh, Toby Dodge, Jeroen Gunning, Dima Smaira, Stacey Philbrick Yadav, Morten Valbjørn, Simon Mabon, Ala'a Shehabi, and Mariam Salehi
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
The challenges to inclusionary states in the MENA region are daunting—including fiercely authoritarian states, the reality or threat of political violence, and ongoing protest movements. In September 2019, POMEPS and the Lebanese American University (LAU) brought together a diverse, interdisciplinary group of scholars to discuss the challenges to building more inclusive orders under these conditions.
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, Politics, Sovereignty, Sectarianism, Transitional Justice, State, Reconciliation, Inclusion, and Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF)
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Yemen, North Africa, and Lebanon

17835. Sectarianism and International Relations

Author:
Marc Lynch, Simon Mabon, Christopher Phillips, F. Gregory Gause III, Morten Valbjørn, Maria-Louise Clausen, Johan Eriksson, Helle Malmvig, Tamirace Fakhoury, Bassel Salloukh, May Darwich, and Edward Wastnidge
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
The essays collected here were initially presented at a joint SEPAD-POMEPS workshop held at Chatham House in February 2020. The authors were asked to reflect on the ways in which geopolitical tensions between Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United States – and others – shapes conflict and societal tensions across the Middle East and beyond.
Topic:
International Relations, Nationalism, Infrastructure, Sectarianism, Geopolitics, Arab Spring, Repression, Geography, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Central Asia, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, United States of America, and Horn of Africa

17836. The COVID-19 Pandemic in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:
Marc Lynch, Eleanore Ardemagni, Jesse Marks, Elizabeth Parker-Magyar, Allison Spencer Hartnett, Ezzeldeen al-Natour, Laith al-Ajlouni, Carla Abdo-Katsipis, Lucia Ardovini, Yasmine Zarhloule, Yasmina Abouzzohour, Brent E. Sasley, Ehud Eiran, Sally Sharif, Diana Galeeva, Matthew Hedges, Elham Fakhro, Kristin Diwan, Guy Burton, Ruth Hanau Santini, Justin Schon, Alex Thurston, Adam Hoffmann, and Robert Kubinec
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
This special issue of POMEPS STUDIES collects twenty contributions from a wide range of young scholars writing from diverse perspectives, which collectively offer a fascinating overview of a region whose governance failures, economic inequalities and societal resilience were all suddenly thrown into sharp relief.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Islam, Nationalism, United Nations, Governance, Authoritarianism, Refugees, Inequality, Conflict, Pandemic, Resilience, COVID-19, and Identity
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, Israel, Yemen, North Africa, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, and Morocco

17837. Africa and the Middle East: Beyond the Divides

Author:
Hisham Aïdi, Marc Lynch, Zachariah Mampilly, Nisrin El-Amin, Jean-Baptiste Gallopin, Noah Salomon, Samar Al-Bulushi, Wolfram Lacher, Federico Donelli, Lina Benabdallah, Ezgi Guner, Afifa Ltifi, Zekeria Ould Ahmed Salem, Alex Thurston, and Alex de Waal
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
The papers, published in this collection, ranged widely over issues connecting West Africa, the Horn, the Sahel and North Africa thematically, politically, militarily and culturally. The goal of this volume is to get American political science to break down the barriers between academic subfields defined by regions and open the fields to new questions raised by scholars from and across Africa and the Middle East.
Topic:
Islam, War, Regime Change, Media, Conflict, Political Science, Revolution, and Capital
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Sudan, Turkey, Middle East, Libya, Saudi Arabia, North Africa, West Africa, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, East Africa, Sahel, and Horn of Africa

17838. Israel/Palestine: Exploring A One-State Reality

Author:
Marc Lynch, Michael Barnett, and Nathan Brown
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
In October 2019, the Project on Middle East Political Science convened a workshop with more than a dozen scholars – Israelis, Palestinians, and others – to discuss the contours of this emergent one state reality. The essays in this collection represent an initial assessment of this reality, and many more will follow over the years to come. The authors each bring their own perspective and history, their own commitments and values, their own aspirations for the future, producing areas of agreement and disagreement. But all agree on the urgent need to recognize the Israeli-Palestinian reality for what it really is and to develop the theoretical language and conceptual tools to rigorously describe and compare that reality. We hope this collection makes a small contribution to the vibrant intellectual debates developing around these issues and joins those ongoing dialogues in a productive way.
Topic:
Civil Society, Human Rights, Territorial Disputes, Citizenship, Ethnicity, Mobility, Settler Colonialism, and Segregation
Political Geography:
Israel, Palestine, Jordan, Mediterranean, and West Bank

17839. MENA’s Frozen Conflicts

Author:
Marc Lynch
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
Over the last year, the MENA region’s simmering conflicts have seemed frozen in place. The internationally-fueled civil wars in Syria, Yemen and Libya have long since settled into an equilibrium in which no side can either truly win or truly lose. Those conflicts have been held in place in part by local ecologies and war economies and in part by the competitive interventions by regional and international powers on behalf of their proxies and clients. But are these conflicts truly frozen? What does viewing them through such a lens gain, and what are the theoretical and analytical costs? To explore these questions, POMEPS convened a virtual research workshop on September 25, 2020, with scholars from diverse empirical and theoretical backgrounds.
Topic:
Security, Civil War, Politics, Citizenship, Military Intervention, Conflict, Syrian War, Mental Health, Crisis Management, Peace, Justice, Capital, and Mobilization
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Libya, Yemen, North Africa, Lebanon, Syria, and United States of America

17840. Modigliani Meets Minsky: Inequality, Debt, and Financial Fragility in America, 1950-2016

Author:
Alina K. Bartscher, Moritz Kuhn, Moritz Schularick, and Ulrike I. Steins
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
This paper studies the secular increase in U.S. household debt and its relation to growing income inequality and financial fragility. We exploit a new household-level dataset that covers the joint distributions of debt, income, and wealth in the United States over the past seven decades. The data show that increased borrowing by middle-class families with low income growth played a central role in rising indebtedness. Debt-to-income ratios have risen most dramatically for households between the 50th and 90th percentiles of the income distribution. While their income growth was low, middle-class families borrowed against the sizable housing wealth gains from rising home prices. Home equity borrowing accounts for about half of the increase in U.S. household debt between the 1970s and 2007. The resulting debt increase made balance sheets more sensitive to income and house price fluctuations and turned the American middle class into the epicenter of growing financial fragility.
Topic:
Debt, Finance, Income Inequality, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
United States

17841. The Economics and Politics of Social Democracy: A Reconsideration

Author:
Servaas Storm
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Questions about the decline of Social democracy continue to excite wide interest, even in the era of Covid-19. This paper takes a fresh look at topic. It argues that social democratic politics faces a fundamental dilemma: short-term practical relevance requires it to accept, at least partly, the very socio-economic conditions which it purports to change in the longer run. Bhaduri’s (1993) essay which analyzes social democracy’s attempts to navigate this dilemma by means of ‘a nationalization of consumption’ and Keynesian demand management, was written before the rise of New (‘Third Way’) Labor and before the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-8. This paper provides an update, arguing that New Labor’s attempt to rescue ‘welfare capitalism’ entailed a new solution to the dilemma facing social democracy based on an expansion of employment, i.e. an all-out emphasis on “jobs, jobs, jobs”. The flip-side (or social cost) of the emphasis on job growth has been a stagnation of productivity growth—which, in turn, has put the ‘welfare state’ under increasing pressure of fiscal austerity. The popular discontent and rise of ‘populist’ political parties is closely related to the failure of New Labor to navigate social democracy’s dilemma.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Democracy, Capitalism, Economic Growth, Welfare, Productivity, and Social Democracy
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

17842. How the Disappearance of Unionized Jobs Obliterated an Emergent Black Middle Class

Author:
William Lazonick, Philip Moss, and Joshua Weitz
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
During the 1960s and 1970s, blacks with no more than high-school educations gained significant access to well-paid unionized employment opportunities, epitomized by semi-skilled operative jobs in the automobile industry, to which they previously had limited access. Anti-discrimination laws under Title VII of the 1964 Civil Rights Act with oversight by the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission supported this upward mobility for blacks in the context of a growing demand for blue-collar labor. From the late 1970s, however, the impact of global competition and the offshoring of manufacturing combined with the financialization of the corporation to decimate these stable and well-paid blue-collar jobs. Under the seniority provisions of the now beleaguered industrial unions, blacks tended to be last hired and first fired. As U.S.-based blue-collar jobs were permanently lost, U.S. business corporations and government agencies failed to make sufficient investments in the education and skills of the U.S. labor force to usher in a new era of upward socioeconomic mobility. This organizational failure left blacks most vulnerable to downward mobility. Instead of retaining corporate profits and reinvesting in the productive capabilities of employees, major business corporations became increasingly focused on downsizing their labor forces and distributing profits to shareholders in the form of cash dividends and stock buybacks. Legitimizing massive distributions to shareholders was the flawed and pernicious ideology that a company should be run to “maximize shareholder value.” As the U.S. economy transitioned from the Old Economy business model, characterized by a career with one company, to the New Economy business model, characterized by interfirm labor mobility, advanced education and social networks became increasingly important for building careers in well-paid white-collar occupations. Along with non-white Hispanics, blacks found themselves at a distinct disadvantage relative to whites and Asians in accessing these New Economy middle-class employment opportunities. Eventually, the downward socioeconomic mobility experienced by blacks would also extend to devastating loss of well-paid and stable employment for whites who lacked the higher education now needed to enter the American middle class. By the twenty-first century, general downward mobility had become a defining characteristic of American society, irrespective of race, ethnicity, or gender. Since the 1980s, the enemy of equal employment opportunity through upward socioeconomic mobility has been the pervasive and entrenched corporate-governance ideology and practice of maximizing shareholder value (MSV). For most Americans, of whatever race, ethnicity, and gender, MSV is the not-so-invisible hand that has a chokehold on the emergence of the stable and well-paid employment opportunities that are essential for sustainable prosperity.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Civil Rights, Unions, Black Politics, African American Studies, and Workforce
Political Geography:
United States

17843. Immaculate Deception: How (and Why) Bankers Still Enjoy a Global Rescue Network

Author:
Edward J. Kane
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Dodd-Frank is an example of counterfeit reform. It is designed principally to benefit very big banks and it has helped these banks to increase their market share greatly during the last 10 years. The Act provides lesser and contradictory forms of costs and comfort to smaller US bankers and taxpayers, foreign bankers (especially the managers of Deutsche Bank), and foreign governments. Small bankers and taxpayers are encouraged to believe that the 2007-2009 US rescue of the world’s biggest banks was a one-time maneuver. But an opposite message is sent through the press as (with great fanfare) the industry absolves and congratulates ex-officeholders: (1) for having transferred massive amounts of subsidized support not just to stakeholders in US megabanks, but also to European bankers and governments, and (2) for keeping the subsidies flowing long past the panic’s expiry date. Genuine reform will require changes in fraud laws and an effort to post on a continuing basis the value of the safety-net subsidies individual megabanks enjoy.
Topic:
Government, Reform, Regulation, Finance, Global Financial Crisis, and Banking
Political Geography:
United States

17844. Political Vigilante Groups in Ghana's Democratic Governance: Some Policy Options

Author:
Justice Richard Kwabena Owusu Kyei
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
This policy brief explores the activities of political vigilante groups in Ghana in relation to the Vigilantism and Related Offenses Law, 2019. It notes that contrary to the widespread perception of political vigilante groups as violent political actors, they contribute to Ghana’s stability and democratic peace. It therefore comes up with recommendations for inte- grating them into Ghana’s political and democratic architecture. Political vigilantism1 in Ghana dates back to the struggle for indepen- dence and the First Republic. The earliest of such groups, the Veranda Boys, was formed by Osagyefo Kwame Nkrumah, Ghana’s first prime minister and president. Political vigilante groups2 have featured in Ghana’s Four Republics (1960-1966; 1969-1972; 1979-1981 and 1993-Present). However, due to the short-lived nature of the first three Republics, their impact on the governance system could not be fully examined. Since the Fourth Republic has endured for over two decades, its longevity has provided adequate time for political vigilante groups to evolve and sit- uate themselves firmly in the political process. In the Fourth Republic these groups have coalesced around the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and National Democratic Congress (NDC). This policy brief argues that political vigilante groups cannot be branded only as violent and disruptive groups and disbanded on that basis. Rather they should be recognized as political actors with certain interests that are compatible with democratic gover- nance in Ghana. Their activities are pertinent to the enhancement of peace and democratic growth espe- cially at the local government level.
Topic:
Political Activism, Political stability, Peace, Independence, and Vigilantism
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

17845. Promoting Reconciliation Among Post-genocide Second Generation Rwandans

Author:
Marie Grace Kagoyire
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
More than two decades after the genocide in Rwanda, the trauma is still haunt- ing some families and being transmitted from survivor parents to the next gen- eration. Within this time period, there have been interventions addressing the mental health needs of those traumatized by the genocide. Policies aimed at promoting reconciliation, while reducing tensions among former enemies to prevent future collective violence among citizens have also been implemented.1 This policy brief is based on the findings of a research project conducted in eastern Rwanda between July and November 2019. It involved interviews with genocide survivors who are now parents, descendants of genocide survivors aged between 18-25 years old, and staff from psycho-social and peacebuild- ing organizations. The study explored intergenerational trauma transmission from genocide survivor parents to their descendants born after the 1994 geno- cide and its implications for reconciliation.
Topic:
Genocide, Trauma, Reconciliation, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa and Rwanda

17846. Deployment of Soldiers to Communities experiencing Gang Violence in South Africa: Policy Perspectives

Author:
Godfrey Maringira and Diana Gibson
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
The point of departure of this policy brief is the failure by the police to effec- tively deal with gang-related violence in the Western Cape and the deploy- ment of soldiers to the affected communities. It examines challenges linked to the deployment of soldiers in response to spiralling levels of urban violence and crime, which should normally fall within the purview of the police. The brief identifies the challenge of perception in black townships where soldiers are viewed as ‘strangers’ or outsiders, particularly by community leaders who are more knowledgeable and experienced in dealing with gang-related violence. Data collected during fieldwork in black townships point to the limitations of the military approach. In this regard, a case is made to the government to direct more resources towards community and non-governmental structures for combating gang-related violence. While we do not seek to over-romanticize the capacity of grassroots and non-governmental structures, there is sufficient evidence that the government and the police can tap into local knowledge, provide resources, and build capacities to effectively address gang-related violence. Community based and non-governmental organizations, which are active at the grassroots level, are often well placed to assist with social and economic interventions that can ameliorate circumstances which contribute to gang violence.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Violence, Local, and Gangs
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

17847. Gang Relationships in a Black Township in South Africa

Author:
Diana Gibson and Godfrey Maringira
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
This paper examines the ways in which young men involved in gang violence forge and sustain their relationships over time in Gugulethu, a township in Cape Town, South Africa. We argue that even though gang members employ violent techniques to sustain their relationships, such relationships are also alternative sources of social and emotional support especially in a context characterized by extreme poverty and fractured fam- ilies, as well as communities having to deal with great financial hardship. These relationships tend to extend beyond gangs to include community leaders and close family members. The paper draws from an ethnography of walking the township streets, being in them, observing and engaging in conversations with young men involved in gang violence. We used thematic analysis to achieve a detailed understanding of the data, using the voices of the participants on which this study is based to recognize, draw out and analyze the themes.
Topic:
Security, Youth, Violence, Gangs, and Identity
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

17848. Conflict and Cooperation in the Eastern Nile: The Role of Business

Author:
Rawia Tawfik
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
The discussion of the role of business in resource-based conflicts in Afri- ca in general and the Nile basin in particular, has been dominated by two approaches. The first approach emphasizes the role of business in exacer- bating domestic and transboundary conflicts by engaging in land and wa- ter grabs.1 In the Nile basin, large-scale land acquisitions by foreign cor- porations have often been considered as a means of exploiting land and water resources, and a factor that increases uncertainty and complexity in hydropolitical relations in the basin.2 This investigation of foreign invest- ments can be linked to a broader literature on promoting good governance of natural resources. This literature focuses on increasing transparency and accountability of all stakeholders, including non-state actors involved in the use of natural resources and ensuring the sustainable management of these resources.3 In contrast, the second approach, which focuses more on transboundary business cooperation, argues that economic cooperation, not only between state actors, but also between corporations could de-escalate conflicts over shared water resources. According to this approach, the private sector can act as ‘an agent of change’ by creating shared interests across borders and engaging in confidence-building activities.4 International organizations and funding institutions have supported multi-stakeholder forums to strength- en transnational cooperation between non-state actors and pushed for public-private partnerships to implement projects at transboundary levels.5 In the Nile basin, inter-riparian investments have been suggested as a po- tential means of reducing tensions through trading virtual water (i.e. the volume of water used in the production of commodities, goods, or services) from water-rich upstream countries, especially Ethiopia to water-scarce downstream countries, especially Egypt.6 It has been suggested that the more Egypt invests in upstream countries (and Sudan) for domestic agri- cultural production, the less likely it would resort to military means against these countries to secure access to the Nile waters to feed its own popula- tion. This assumption indicates that while inter-riparian investments may increase conflict within receiving countries, it may reduce conflicts between these countries.7 This paper contributes to this debate by examining the actual roles played by Egyptian businesses in the hydro-political and hydro-economic relations between the three Eastern Nile countries and the factors that affect these roles. It argues that the two approaches criticizing business's contribution to conflict or applauding its contribution to cooperation have not adequately captured the complexity and variety of roles played by business. It also does not adequately summarize the possible contradictory impacts of these roles on conflict and cooperation between riparian states. These approaches also downplay the impact of state-business relations and of the basin context, especially the history of hydro-political relations, on these roles. The paper will also address four main questions: what are the motivations of Egyptian businesses investing in Ethiopia and Sudan? To what extent do tensions over the utilization of the Nile waters factor into risk assessment of investments in the two countries? What roles do Egyptian public and pri- vate corporations play in promoting economic cooperation and reducing the potential of conflict, or increasing tensions between Egypt on the one hand, and Ethiopia and Sudan on the other hand? What factors affect these roles and how? And how can the business community better contribute to reduc- ing tensions over the utilization of water resources and promoting wider economic cooperation between Eastern Nile countries?
Topic:
Privatization, Water, Business, Conflict, and Private Sector
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Egypt

17849. ECOWAS Mediation in Togo's 2017/2018 Political Crisis: Feats, Deadlocks, and Lessons

Author:
Brown Odigie
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
On August 18, 2017, opposition1 figures in the Republic of Togo, a member-state of the Economic Community of West Africa States (ECOWAS), took to the streets to protest the continued rule of Faure Gnassingbé, the incum- bent president of the country who has spent 14 years in power. They demand- ed constitutional reforms, and in particular, a return to the 1992 constitu- tion, which would, bring back a constitutional provision limiting presidential tenure to two-terms of five years only. Other reforms demanded included a demand for a two-round system2 for presidential elections, reform of elec- toral laws and the election management body, review of the voters’ register, as well as voting rights for Togolese nationals in the diaspora. In a quick progression of events, the protesters made additional demands including one for an immediate end3 to the regime of Faure Gnassingbé, whose family has been accused of institutionalizing dynastic rule starting with his father, Gnassingbé Eyadéma, who ruled the country from 1967 till his death in of- fice on February 5, 2005. For several months, on regular intervals, leaders of the opposition and civil society groups mobilized different social groups including youths and women to continue to make these demands on the government. occasionally in violent demonstrations that led to public disor- der, looting ofOccasionally these protests degenerated into violent demon- strations that led to public disorder, looting of private and public goods, and loss of lives. The initial reaction of the government was to crack down on the protesters, using state apparatuses of force to shut down the internet, which was crucial for mobilization, arresting4 a number of activists on the streets of Lomé, the country's capital. The protests, however, continued as protesters were undeterred,5 and soon spread to the country’s second larg- est city of Sokodé in the central region. Following persistent demonstra- tions and calls by the international community, notably, ECOWAS, France, the United Nations (UN), the European Union (EU), and the African Union Commission (AUC) for an immediate dialogue in resolving the impasses, Mr. Faure Gnassingbé finally accepted to dialogue and negotiate with the opposition. Leveraging on a preventive diplomacy conceptual framework of analysis, this paper highlights the nuances and the herculean task of mediating po- litical conflicts by regional organizations such as ECOWAS. It does so es- pecially in relation to preventing protests from escalating into violent con- flict, navigating deadlocks, and achieving concessions on important political and constitutional matters that might alter the existing power equation. It analyses the spate of criticism that trailed ECOWAS’ mediation of the cri- sis during a period the Togolese president, Mr. Faure Gnassingbé, was the Chair of the Authority of Heads of State and Government of ECOWAS (June 2017 to July 2018) as well as the efforts to maintain impartiality by the Fa- cilitators appointed by ECOWAS to assist the government and opposition stakeholders to negotiate a political settlement and implement constitu- tional reforms. The paper also raises questions about the rationality of the decision of the coalition of fourteen opposition parties (C14) to boycott the December 20, 2018 legislative elections, noting that the election boycott hardly achieved its intended purpose of delegitimizing the government. It, however, com- mends the ability of the opposition to learn key lessons from the boycott, and emphasizes the imperative for both the government and the opposition parties to continue exploring avenues for inclusive dialogue in addressing unresolved contentious issues, not only with respect to the immediate 2020 presidential elections, but more importantly, efforts at expanding the polit- ical and civic space and strengthening the role of civil society organizations in democratic processes in the country. The paper concludes by extolling the steadiness and the resilience of West African citizens in demanding for, and, or defending constitutional provisions that limit presidential tenures. It also notes that such vigilance and resilience are needed if democratic cul- ture and good governance are to be deepened in the region.
Topic:
Civil Society, Diplomacy, Governance, Peace, Mediation, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa, West Africa, and Togo

17850. Higher Education as a Pathway toward Peace in Burkina Faso: New Policy Perspectives

Author:
Dagan Rossini and Felicity Burgess
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
Higher education plays an important role in promoting inclusive democracies and driving social and economic change. Many African universities, however, face key structural challenges including limited Internet, outdated curricula, overburdened faculty, and archaic infrastructure. These systemic issues have been exacerbated by rising enrollment rates in the wake of global pressures to expand access and ensure quality of education for all. As governments and multilateral institutions look to capitalize on the continent’s demographic dividend, it is important to rethink, revitalize, and restructure African university systems, particularly in (post-)conflict settings. This policy brief is based on a report prepared for the Ministry of Higher Education, Scientific Research, and Innovation in Burkina Faso. It identifies a mismatch between the supply of skilled graduates and labor market demands, bearing in mind Burkina Faso’s ambition to become one of three main knowl- edge hubs in West Africa and the ongoing crisis in the Sahel region. Research was conducted between September 2019 and April 2020 and included three weeks of qualitative research in the capital city, Ouagadougou, involving focus groups and semi-structured interviews with 67 individuals. Findings suggest that increased collaboration between the education and economic sectors will enhance both student learning experiences and professional practices, thereby enabling more peaceful and democratic futures
Topic:
Education, Governance, Democracy, Peace, Higher Education, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:
Africa and Burkina Faso