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17602. A Proposal for a Stability Mechanism for the Gulf Cooperation Countries
- Author:
- Rabah Arezki and Aitor Erce
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries—Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—face the dual shock of a pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus and a persistent collapse in oil prices. Because of the dual shock, the growth downgrade for the GCC as a whole is 7.5 percentage points in 2020 (World Bank, 2020). This can be considered as the cost of the dual shock—Arezki and others, 2020. But there is wide uncertainty about the estimate, which could be even higher. GCC countries must act collectively and boldly today to reduce the risk of an economic depression. A delayed and tenuous response may force authorities to spend even more in the future to, among other things, rescue cash-strapped members, as non-performing loans and bankruptcies become widespread (Ari et al., 2020). A powerful joint mechanism to cushion the blow, and ensure solidarity and stability of the GCC is warranted.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Political stability, Conflict, and Gulf Cooperation Council
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
17603. Technology Factsheet: Synthetic Biology
- Author:
- Colin O'Leary
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Synthetic biology (sometimes referred to as “SynBio”) is broadly defined as the application of engineering principles to biology, and in practice, refers to emerging technology that allows living organisms to be modified to serve user-defined purposes. While traditional biotechnology involves the transfer of smaller amounts of genetic material from one biological species to another, synthetic biology will permit the inten- tional construction of an entire organism.1 It has the potential to allow scientists to design living organisms distinct from any found in nature and to redesign existing organisms to have novel or enhanced qualities.2 The use cases of synthetic biology range from developing new therapeutics and vaccines for infectious disease to manufacturing novel biomaterials, biosensors, and biofuels. As scientists better understand biological systems, the potential applications of SynBio are anticipated to expand in scale and scope. The continued growth of the bioeconomy—defined as the “production, utilization and conservation of biological resources, including related knowledge, science, technology, and innovation, to provide information, products, processes and services across all economic sectors”—is giving space for synthetic biology technology to become a more significant part of the overall economic landscape.3 As with any technology that has a high potential for impact, SynBio presents a variety of pronounced opportunities, as well as risks. As the technology continues to mature and the number of market-ready applications grows, it is important for policymakers to consider how to promote the large number of opportunities the technology presents in the space of health and medicine, energy production, environmental recovery, food production, and more, while simultaneously protecting the public from foreseeable negative impli- cations and risks, such as weaponization, consumer safety, and ecological stability. Since synthetic biology bears significant similarities to previous biotechnology research on genetical- ly-modified organisms and recombinant DNA, existing regulations in the United States place the majority of synthetic biology products into the current biotechnology regulatory framework. As SynBio becomes more prominent though, it will be important for regulatory schemes to uniquely target the technology and its implications beyond those captured through biotechnology frameworks. Policymakers must continue to engage in the progression of the technology, understanding how regulation and governance must evolve to ensure the public can realize the opportunities, while being protected from the risks.
- Topic:
- Health, Science and Technology, and Biology
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
17604. Technology Factsheet: Quantum Computing
- Author:
- Akhil Iyer
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Quantum computing refers to the use of quantum properties—the properties of nature on an atomic scale—to solve complex problems much faster than conventional, or classical, computers. Quantum computers are not simply faster versions of conventional computers, though they are a fundamentally different computing paradigm due to their ability to leverage quantum mechanics. Harnessing quantum properties, namely the ability for the quantum computer bits (called “qubits”) to exist in multiple and interconnected states at one time, opens the door for highly parallel information processing with unprecedented new opportunities. Quantum computing could potentially be applied to solve important problems in fields such as cryptography, chemistry, medicine, material science, and machine learning that are computationally hard for conventional computers. Although it is still unclear which specific tasks can benefit from parallelized quantum processing, known as quantum parallelism, it is expected that solutions to a number of problems, especially those related to optimization, can be greatly accelerated by using a quantum computer. Though the field is still in its early stages, the anticipated opportunities offered by the unique computational power of quantum computers have attracted investment from not only research universities, but also startups, technology giants like Google, IBM and Microsoft, and directed investment by governments around the world. This cross-sectoral ecosystem has supported recent progress in underlying hardware, software, and algorithms necessary to make the computers work. The field has seen rapid advancement, however systems that can accomplish various kinds of computation, and especially those that can be commercially viable, are still likely to be decades away. There are expected to be some near- term applications on the horizon though, making quantum computing as relevant as ever. Currently, U.S. governance and regulation regarding quantum computing—a subset of the broader field of quantum information science, which also encompasses quantum communication and quantum sensing—focus on investments in the technical knowhow, collaborative research ecosystem, and human capital required to advance the technology. Given quantum computing’s potential for impact, especially in the fields of digital security, healthcare, energy, and machine learning and artificial intelligence, it is important for policymakers to understand the likely trajectories of the technology over the coming decades, as well as the pace of development both within the U.S. and abroad. Furthermore, policymakers must consider how to effectively promote the development, application and implementation of general-purpose quantum technologies to realize their larger economic and social benefits, while simultaneously mitigating foreseeable risks to privacy, safety, security, and inclusion.
- Topic:
- Security, Science and Technology, Governance, Regulation, Privacy, and Quantum Computers
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
17605. Should Regulators Make Electric Utilities Pay Customers for Poor Reliability?
- Author:
- Shefali Khanna and Kevin Rowe
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- In September 2017, the Delhi Electricity Regulatory Commission (DERC) required that the city’s regulated electricity distribution utilities pay compensation to customers experiencing power outages of three hours or longer. The measure was intended to incentivize the utilities to invest in the infrastructure and management practices needed to deliver higher levels of service quality. In 2019, India’s central government announced that it was considering rolling out a similar policy for utilities across the country. Can outage compensation policies help India’s power system achieve better reliability for all customers? This policy brief describes the persistent challenge of poor electricity reliability in India and how it interacts with key regulatory policies, analyzes Delhi’s experience with outage compensation since 2017, and highlights areas for additional economic and policy research on this topic.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Environment, Natural Resources, Infrastructure, Economic Policy, and Electricity
- Political Geography:
- South Asia, India, and Asia-Pacific
17606. Systemic Racism: Why did violent protests erupt in the USA?
- Author:
- Hussam Ibrahim
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Since May 25, the US has witnessed demonstrations in several cities due to killing of an African-American citizen. The escalation of events have led to acts of violence and vandalism, raising several questions around: the background of the protestors, their demands and their motives, and most importantly, whether such protests would in fact lead to a change in the institutional framework under which systemic racism has prevailed within the US.
- Topic:
- Social Justice, Protests, Police, Racism, Systemic Racism, and Police Brutality
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
17607. Paradox of Relations: Russian - Turkish Relations in the Syrian and Libyan Fronts
- Author:
- Dania Koleilat Khatib and Aref Bijan
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Over the last few years, Russia has emerged as a significant power broker and military actor in the Middle East. Russia's intervention in the Syrian crisis since 2015 has revived its relations with neighboring countries. This increase in Russia's activity has led to convergence and divergence with other countries in the region. One of those countries is Turkey, which had cooperated at times and had differences at times with Russia in the Middle East, especially in the Syrian and the Libyan crises. Ankara and Moscow are fully engaged in the global competition trying to increase their power and influence. They face off in Syria and Libya. In Syria, Turkey supports the rebels in the North West while Russia supports the Assad regime. In Libya, Turkey supports the Government of National Accord (GNA) while Russia supports Libyan National Army (LNA). Their relation becomes more intricate as both parties got involved in the Caucus, a region of prime importance to both countries. In the vicinity of Russia, the oil route goes Tbilisi-Baku ending up in Ceyhan Turkey. While Turkey supports Azerbaijan, Russia supports Armenia. The Caucus crisis showed how the two countries are rivals that are ready to accommodate each other on a quid pro quo basis. The cease happened concurrently with a partial withdrawal of Turkey from some posts in the North West in Syria. Was there an agreement between Erdogan and Putin in this regard? There are no proofs; however, the various events that are happening from the Caucus to North Africa suggest that those two powers are rivals that are ready to accommodate each other. To add to that, the American retrenchment has encouraged the two powers to flex their muscles in the region. Therefore, given the developments in the region, this article has tried to examine the paradox of Russian-Turkish relations and their strategy in Libya and Syria.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Conflict, Strategic Competition, and Proxy War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, Turkey, Middle East, and Libya
17608. The European Defence Fund and Norway
- Author:
- Karsten Friis
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The establishment of the European Defence Fund (EDF) represents an important step towards a more coherent European security architecture. It is broadly recognised that Europe needs to reduce duplication between, as well as the number of, weapons systems and platforms. The EU recently opened up for associated countries to participate in the Fund, but the Norwegian government has failed to set aside money for the EDF, despite official policy to participate.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, European Union, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Norway
17609. Russia’s view of Georgia: a NATO proxy yet again?
- Author:
- Julie Wilhelmsen
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- After the crises in Ukraine, and despite the Georgian government’s allegedly more pragmatic attitude towards Russia, official statements from Moscow increasingly project Georgia as hostile. This may be the result of the Kremlin stepping up a propaganda campaign to put pressure on Georgia, but it is also linked to growing perceptions of Georgia as becoming an agent of NATO. Moreover, Russia’s increasingly insistent rhetorical and practical support for the independent status of the two Georgian breakaway republics, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, is still framed with reference to Kosovo as a tit-for-tat in a conflict with the West. In parallel with this hardening in Russian views, there is hardly any diplomatic contact between Russia and Georgia. The regional multilateral frameworks have become dysfunctional, obstructed by polarization. Further Georgian NATO integration could entail an increasing risk of war, unless frank discussions and engagement with Russia can be promoted.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Proxy War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and Georgia
17610. Brothers in Arms and Faith? The Emerging US-Central and Eastern Europe ‘Special Relationship’
- Author:
- Vibeke Schou Tjalve and Minda Holm
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- In this policy note, we explore the nature, strength and tensions of the contemporary US-Central Eastern Europe relationship. We describe the expanding US-CEE ‘brotherhood in arms’: growing trade relations, intensified military cooperation, and rekindled diplomatic ties. Further, we unpack the striking and largely ignored dimensions of the US-CEE ‘brotherhood in faith’: the many ways in which the United States and Central and Eastern Europe are tied together by overlapping ideologies of national conservatism and a particular version of Christian ‘family values’. This involves addressing the complexities of an increasingly influential and ambitious Visegrád Group, whose key players – Poland and Hungary – may be brothers, but are by no means twins. It also means raising some broader, burning discussions about the future of NATO and the meaning of ‘Europe’. Universalist, multicultural and postnational? Or conservative, Christian and sovereigntist?
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, NATO, Military Affairs, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, North America, Central Europe, and United States of America
17611. China’s role in the Sustainable Development Agenda: Considerations for Norway
- Author:
- Hans Jørgen Gåsemyr
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- China’s role as an international development actor is growing, with real and increasing potential to impact Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). On some issues, Chinese initiatives align well with Norwegian interests, but China’s approach to development also diverges on some key practices and norms. While Chinese international efforts meet mixed reactions, Norway should stake out its own course for when and how to engage with China over SDGs.
- Topic:
- Development, International Organization, United Nations, and Sustainable Development Goals
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Norway, and Asia
17612. COVID-19 and the African Union. Challenges, prospects and side-effects
- Author:
- Cedric H. de Coning
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The African Union is coordinating the effort to contain the spread of COVID-19 in Africa, but the measures introduced are also significantly disrupting the reforms, programmes and operations of the AU.
- Topic:
- International Organization, African Union, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Africa
17613. Russian approaches to military technology. The Northern dimension
- Author:
- Jakub M. Godzimirski
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- This policy brief presents the main findings of a project on Russian approaches to technological challenges, and the implications for security developments in the High North. It begins by examining the Russian debate on the technological challenges identified as posing a threat to national security by the country’s policymakers. Next, it explores how these challenges have been dealt with by Russia in the post-2014 context, paying special attention to developments in the field of military technology and how President Putin has taken advantage of these to address questions of strategic balance. Finally, the brief sets out the strategic implications for Norway, as NATO’s representative in this northern corner and Russia’s direct neighbour.
- Topic:
- Development, Military Affairs, and Vladimir Putin
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Norway
17614. The impact of COVID-19 on the performance of peace operations
- Author:
- Cedric H. de Coning
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Between the African Union, European Union, OSCE, NATO and United Nations there are approximately 160,000 civilian, police and military personnel deployed in more than 50 missions. These missions have all been forced to take unprecedented steps to adapt and cope with the COVID-19 pandemic. This may be just the beginning and much more significant reductions and changes in the way these operations function may be needed over the coming months.
- Topic:
- United Nations, International Affairs, European Union, African Union, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Africa
17615. China, India and the political economy of medical supplies
- Author:
- Stein Sundstol Eriksen
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Summary: • The pandemic and lockdowns threaten the supply of medicines, especially from India • Poor countries relying on supplies of cheap Indian medicines are especially vulnerable • New medicines and vaccines are likely to be developed and patented by Western companies and will be expensive. • Norway should help fund the supply of medicines and promote reforms of patent rules to make medicines more affordable
- Topic:
- Political Economy, Asia, Vaccine, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China, South Asia, India, and Asia
17616. Lessons from the Ebola Crisis in West Africa: Community engagement, crisis communication and countering rumours
- Author:
- Frida Bjørneseth, Morten Bøås, Henriette U. Erstad, Alessia Iocchi, and Kari M. Osland
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- What lessons can we draw from the 2014-2016 Ebola crisis in Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone? While both the outbreak itself and the context is different, there are enough similarities between the Ebola crisis and COVID-19 to extract useful lessons and best practices. In this research note, the focus is on three key lessons from the Ebola experience: community engagement, crisis communication and countering the rumour mill. In the world’s most fragile states, an uncontrolled outbreak of COVID-19 would have devastating consequences for the population. In a scenario where the spread of the coronavirus is under control in large parts of the world, the survival of COVID-19 in fragile states would also most certainly be a source for new waves of infections to the rest of the world. Not only do fragile states lack capacity to react adequately on their own, but their ability to utilise external support and assistance is limited due to low absorption capacity.
- Topic:
- Ebola, Crisis Management, Public Health, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Africa and West Africa
17617. Preventing Organized Crime. The Need for a Context-Sensitive, System-Wide Approach.
- Author:
- Kari M. Osland and Arthur Boutellis
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Recent years have seen important developments regarding the UN Security Council and the UN Secretariat. The Security Council, which has increasingly recognized organized crime as a serious threat to international peace and security—especially in relation to terrorism—has begun using sanctions to deal with organized crime and trafficking in Mali and Libya. Further, serious and organized crime (SOC) police units have been established in several UN field operations, including in the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Mali. However, there is still no UN-wide policy on organized crime, and the issue has been conspicuously absent from recent strategic documents such as the Action for Peacekeeping Declaration (A4P). This report argues that there is need for a UN system-wide approach to peace operations for preventing and addressing organized crime, and its links to terrorism. To achieve this, UN member states and the UN Secretariat should seek to consolidate and broaden its nascent law enforcement capacity- building police approach into a context sensitive, system-wide approach. Six specific recommendations for the way forward are offered.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, International Organization, United Nations, Peace, and Organized Crime
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
17618. COVID-19 will change the way the UN conducts peacekeeping operations in the future Published: 6 May 2020
- Author:
- Cedric H. de Coning
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly disrupted UN peacekeeping operations. In the short-term, activities have been reduced to the most critical, rotations have been frozen, and most staff are working remotely. Most of the missions have adapted remarkably well, but even more extreme changes are likely in the medium term, as the global economic recession that will follow in the wake of the virus may force UN peace operations to drastically contract in size and scope.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Peacekeeping, Peace, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Global Focus
17619. The Impact of Covid-19 on the Women, Peace and Security Agenda.
- Author:
- Kari M. Osland, Maria Gilen Røysamb, and Jenny Nortvedt
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Summary: • Women appear to be disproportionately affected by Covid-19 • Pushback on global commitment to gender equality • Gender equality and human development are correlated: focussing on gender equality will have a catalytic effect on the SDGs • The increasing strain on peace operations is likely to have a negative effect on the WPS agenda.
- Topic:
- Security, International Organization, United Nations, Women, Peace, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
17620. Conventional arms control on the Korean Peninsula: The current state and prospects
- Author:
- Yong-Sup Han
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- At the end of 2017, the Korean Peninsula reached the brink of a nuclear war, as the US president Donald Trump and the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un exchanged words of nuclear threats each other. A tug of war as to whose nuclear button is bigger and stronger exacerbated the nuclear crisis. However, the South Korean President Moon Jae-in intervened to resolve the crisis by taking advantage of the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics. In doing so, President Moon intended to pursue denuclearisation and peace-building on the Korean Peninsula at the same time. North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-un responded positively to the South Korean call to hold the inter-Korean summit and the Trump-Kim summit. In order to end the Korean war and promote peace-building on the Korean Peninsula including termination of hostile acts on inter-Korean relations, the two Koreas adopted the April 27 Panmunjom Declaration, the September 19th Pyongyang Joint Declaration and the Inter-Korean Military Agreement at their summit in 2018. The Military Agreement is aimed at reducing tension and building trust between the two Koreas through conventional arms control, while the North Korean nuclear issue is being resolved through the US-DPRK summit. The September 19th Military Agreement is a modest but remarkable success in arms control history when compared with a long-term stalemate or even retreat in the contemporary international arms control arena. Indeed, arms control is at its lowest point in history, so dim are its prospects. Nevertheless, heated debates are taking place, both at home inside South Korea and abroad, over the legitimacy and rationality of the Sept. 19th Military Agreement. With little progress on the denuclearisation issue at the Kim-Trump summit and no sign of easing economic sanctions on Pyongyang, North Korea has test-fired short-range missiles ten times to exert pressure on the United States, undermining peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula. Against this backdrop, this policy brief intends to analyse the true meaning of the September 19 Military Agreement between the two Koreas, to identify its problems and policy implications in order to draw up supplementary measures to implement it successfully. Furthermore, the paper will draw some implications for the relationship between progress on North Korea’s denuclearisation issue and further conventional arms control on the Korean Peninsula.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America
17621. COVID-19 in Latin America: Challenges, responses, and consequences
- Author:
- Peder Østebø and Vegard Bye
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- While containment efforts were quickly implemented in many countries, COVID-19 may still prove to have a long-lasting effect in Latin America, a region already marked by economic disarray and political instability. Economic projections suggest that Latin American economies will be among the most affected by the current halt in global trade and consumption. As many countries have recently faced political turmoil, massive containment efforts raise a number of questions on legitimacy and citizen-state relations. In some countries, democratic processes essential for the upholding of democratic legitimacy have been halted. In Brazil, the central government’s handling of the crisis has been an important factor contributing to a severe political crisis. A geopolitical vacuum may provide China with an opportunity to increase its importance for the region.
- Topic:
- Economics, Geopolitics, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Destabilization
- Political Geography:
- China and Latin America
17622. The spiralling effects of the Sino-American trade war
- Author:
- Marc Lanteigne
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Almost two years ago, China and the United States instigated a trade conflict which has had serious international effects, a situation since exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic. What has truly made a solution to this conflict elusive, however, is that its origins lie well beyond questions of trade deficits and fair competition, and are instead based on the looming question of a power transition between to the two states. The effects of this divergence are beginning to be observed in several economic realms, including the financial and the technological. Many other actors in the global economy have begun to experience the side effects of this completion, and may now have to face difficult choices about how to balance between these two emerging poles in the current fragile global economy.
- Topic:
- Economic Growth, Conflict, Trade, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
17623. Intergovernmental checkmate on cyber? Processes on cyberspace in the United Nations
- Author:
- Erik Kursetgjerde
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Cyberspace is an increasingly controversial field on the international agenda. Despite the fact that processes on the thematic have been going on in the UN since 1998, a more significant international agreement is needed on what basic principles should apply in cyberspace. Small states have the opportunity of pushing cybersecurity as a thematic priority in the United Nations Security Council – a path Norway could pursue in its forthcoming 2021–2022 Security Council term. The attribution of the assumed Russian cyber operations toward the Norwegian parliament earlier this year actualizes the addressing of the issue in the Council. The policy brief discusses the GGE negotiations on cyberspace in 2015 and 2017 - and gives policy recommendations on the way forward.
- Topic:
- United Nations, International Affairs, and Cyberspace
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
17624. In the shadow of the virus Varieties of power in the COVID-19 crisis in Venezuela
- Author:
- Peder Østebø
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- While all states face massive challenges when responding to COVID-19, some are in a more precarious position than others. In Venezuela, the pandemic arrived at the worst possible time for its citizens. Facing one of the deepest economic crises outside of wartime in recent years, its consequences have spilled over to all aspect of social life.1 However, the timing seems to have suited the leaders of the Venezuelan regime well. Rather than constituting a threat to the stability of a regime that has lost both democratic legitimacy and the capacity to provide services and security, the government of Nicolas Maduro (2013-present) has seemingly managed to consolidate itself after several years of instability. The starting point of the discussion is an apparent paradox: how can a regime with neither legitimacy nor capacity, two commonly invoked criteria for effective crisis management, strengthen itself during a crisis such as that spurred by COVID-19? The brief presents an overview of how the Venezuelan regime has responded to COVID-19, and how the government of Nicolás Maduro has applied different strategies to consolidate a favorable political status quo. It takes as its starting point three concepts, namely “state capacity,” “legitimacy,” and “power,” all of which are frequently upheld as fundamental for understanding the varying ways in which states have responded to the pandemic. It highlights how relative power relations have shifted in recent years, and how the pandemic has contributed to skewing the balance of power further in favor of the Maduro government.
- Topic:
- Government, Health, Crisis Management, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- South America, Central America, and Venezuela
17625. Measuring Russia’s attention to Europe and the world
- Author:
- Kristian Lundby Gjerde
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Based on a mapping of mentions of country names in more than 30,000 Russian official speeches, press conferences, meeting transcripts, and official statements, this brief provides insights into changes to Russia’s engagement with the world during the 21st century. Without disentangling the subtleties of relations – such as their security, economic, or cultural dimensions and their benign or adversarial features – this approach allows the brief to sketch answers to questions that would otherwise be left to guesswork.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Economics, and Culture
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Eurasia
17626. The coronavirus pandemic and its challenges to women’s work in Latin America
- Author:
- Diana Gutiérrez, Guillermina Martin, and Hugo Nopo
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Group for the Analysis of Development (GRADE)
- Abstract:
- The coronavirus pandemic has spread throughout the world and Latin America has not been exempt from its health, economic and social impacts. The economic shutdown, as a result of a combination of stringent measures (self-quarantines, mandatory lockdowns, limited capacity in shops, factories and offices, border closures, etc.), is having a profound economic and social impact. In the labor market it has shocked both supply and demand. Within households, it has resulted in an increase in the unpaid workload, burdening women disproportionately, further reducing the time they can allocate to productive activities. The crisis’s impacts and depth are felt differently by they can widen existing gender gaps. In this paper, the authors explore the impacts of the crisis on employment in sixteen countries in the region. In addition, they analize gender impacts through four lenses: young people, people living in poverty, people living in rural areas and heads of the family. Researchers present a set of policy option aimed at integrating the gender approach into the entire pandemic world. Emphasizing the need for cross-sectional solutions, the authors propose policies in three main areas: the home, work and the spaces between work and home. This will enable socio-economic recovery policies to not only soften short-term impacts, but also further equal opportunities for women and men in the medium and long terms.
- Topic:
- Economics, Gender Issues, Health, International Political Economy, Women, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Global Health
- Political Geography:
- Latin America
17627. How a pinch analysis can help visualise emission cuts for developing countries - Philippines
- Author:
- Dominic Foo and Raymond Tan
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Asia Research Institute, University of Nottingham
- Abstract:
- Policy makers should use the carbon emissions pinch analysis (CEPA) as a graphical technique to allow the energy-climate nexus to be analysed visually and easily. This will help decision makers achieve the emission cuts they need. We illustrate the usefulness of CEPA by applying it to the case of the Philippines as a representative developing country.
- Topic:
- Developing World, Sustainable Development Goals, Sustainability, and Carbon Emissions
- Political Geography:
- Philippines and Global Focus
17628. How a pinch analysis can help visualise emission cuts for transition economies
- Author:
- Dominic Foo, Raymond Tan, and Purusothmn Nair
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Asia Research Institute, University of Nottingham
- Abstract:
- Policy makers should use the carbon emissions pinch analysis (CEPA) as a graphical technique to allow the energy-climate nexus to be analysed visually and easily. This will help decision makers achieve the emission cuts they need. We illustrate the usefulness of CEPA by applying it to the case of Malaysia as a representative for transition economies.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, Sustainable Development Goals, Renewable Energy, Economic Development, Sustainability, and Carbon Emissions
- Political Geography:
- Malaysia
17629. Inclusive education in ASEAN countries: how to support children with disabilities in schools
- Author:
- Tze Peng Wong
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Asia Research Institute, University of Nottingham
- Abstract:
- This policy brief provides recommendations to enable equal participation in education among children with disabilities in ASEAN countries. It specifically calls for governments and schools to adopt inclusive education recommendations which include the training of teachers of inclusive principles, the allocation of funding to build relevant infrastructure and the development of new curricula.
- Topic:
- Education, Children, and Teaching
- Political Geography:
- ASEAN
17630. Inclusive growth: how to encourage persons with disabilities into the labour market
- Author:
- Gan Siew Wei, Vengadeshvaran Sarma, and Tang Yu Hoe
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Asia Research Institute, University of Nottingham
- Abstract:
- Persons with disabilities (PWDs) are regularly discriminated against in the labour market and have little opportunity to participate in employment and entrepreneurship. In Southeast Asia, the lack of data masks the severity of their exclusion. This brief draws on an impact-evaluation of a multicountry corporate social responsibility project in the region. Policy makers should consider the collection of a centralised database and the implementation of new training and mentoring to support PWDs.
- Topic:
- Discrimination, Disability, Corporations, and Labor Market
- Political Geography:
- Asia
17631. Supporting full participation of mothers in the labour market: Childcare-related leave policy lessons from East Asian economies
- Author:
- Ruby Chau and Sam Yu
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Asia Research Institute, University of Nottingham
- Abstract:
- Policy makers should implement alterations to the law in order to support women and families in getting back into the workforce. This policy brief reviews how governments in Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan use paid childcare-related leave policies in supporting women to stay in the labour market. It shows that these policies have not been very successful for two main reasons: 1. The leave is not long enough to cover the whole period from birth to the time when the child is entitled to universal state childcare services or school education. 2. These policies do not address the issue of the gender pay gap and hence overlook the financial loss a family may suffer if the father, instead of the mother, takes a substantial period of time off to look after the children.
- Topic:
- Gender Issues, Children, Women, Family, Labor Market, and Childcare
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and Hong Kong
17632. Water quality monitoring in the Red River Delta (Vietnam): how to improve water resource management in the region
- Author:
- Suzanne McGowan
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Asia Research Institute, University of Nottingham
- Abstract:
- Policy makers should use collected datasets to inform policy making that supports improved water resources management. The Red River Delta has a long history of collecting water quality data. These datasets can help policy makers understand how population growth and urban development has impacted water quality in the region. This brief suggests new methodologies and approaches to guide collection, analysis and interpretation of water quality monitoring datasets for improved water resources management.
- Topic:
- Natural Resources, Water, Sustainable Development Goals, Urban, Population Growth, and Sustainability
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Vietnam
17633. Party footprints in Africa: Measuring local party presence across the continent
- Author:
- Matthias Krönke, Sarah J. Lockwood, and Robert Mattes
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Afrobarometer
- Abstract:
- The conventional view holds that most of Africa’s political parties are organizationally weak, with little grassroots presence. Yet few studies are based on systematically collected data about more than a handful of parties or countries at any given point. In this paper, we focus on one crucial aspect of party organization – the local presence that enables political parties to engage with and mobilize voters – and use Afrobarometer data to develop the Party Presence Index, the first systematic, cross-national measure of local party presence in Africa. We then apply the index to a series of substantive questions, confirming its value and demonstrating its potential to add significantly to our understanding of grassroots party organization.
- Topic:
- Governance, Democracy, Local, Political Parties, and Community
- Political Geography:
- Africa
17634. Willing to kill: Factors contributing to mob justice in Uganda
- Author:
- Ronald Makanga Kakumba
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Afrobarometer
- Abstract:
- Mob justice is a form of extrajudicial punishment or retribution in which a person suspected of wrongdoing is typically humiliated, beaten, and in many cases killed by vigilantes or a crowd. Mob action takes place in the absence of any form of fair trial in which the accused are given a chance to defend themselves; the mob simply takes the law into its own hands (Ng’walali & Kitinya, 2006). Mob justice is not only criminal but also amounts to a violation of human rights (Uganda Human Rights Commission, 2016). Over the past decade, Uganda has seen a significant rise in the number of cases of mob justice. According to the Uganda Police Force’s (2013-2019) annual crime reports, 746 deaths by mob action were reported and investigated in 2019, compared to 426 in 2013, a 75% increase. “Mob kills 42 in 7 weeks,” the Daily Monitor (2019) reported in March 2019, citing police figures – an average of six lynchings a week. Homicides by mob action in Uganda occur mainly in response to thefts, robberies, killings, and reports of witchcraft (Uganda Police Force, 2018). According to the 2015 Afrobarometer survey in Uganda, one in six Ugandan adults said they took part in mob justice during the preceding year or would do so if they “had the chance.” This suggests that mob justice is not just a fringe problem in Uganda but commands attention and requires collective action. Why would a substantial number of Ugandans resort to taking the law into their own hands as an alternative form of “justice”? Analysts have pointed to a number of factors that might contribute to a willingness to engage in mob justice. One is a lack of trust in the formal criminal justice system to administer fair and timely justice. A 2005 study in Uganda showed that mob actions were often motivated by widespread suspicion or misunderstanding of the justice system, especially concerning the procedure of police bail, under which suspected culprits can be temporarily released before the court process (Baker, 2005). A study in southern Nigeria also reported that a lack of trust in the police was one of the motivations for the alarming incidence of “jungle justice” (Obarisiagbon, 2018). Research has also shown that personal victimization by crime can have a lasting impact on attitudes toward the police, the courts, and the criminal justice system overall (Berthelot, McNeal, & Baldwin, 2018; Dull & Wint, 1997; Koenig, 1980; Sprott & Doob, 1997), as can negative personal experiences with the courts (Olson & Huth, 1998; Kanaabi, 2004). Amid Uganda’s surge in mob justice, Afrobarometer findings tell us that popular trust in the police and courts has been declining while citizens’ perceptions of corruption in these criminal justice institutions has been rising. Statistical analyses show that a lack of trust in the police is associated with a willingness to engage in mob justice, while perceived corruption undermines trust and thus indirectly contributes to a willingness to join others in mob actions. Further, our analysis finds that being a victim of crime (physical assault), encountering problems in the court system, finding it hard to obtain police assistance, and having to pay a bribe to police or court officials are factors that make people more likely to say they would take part in mob action against suspected criminals. Based on these findings, we offer recommendations to mitigate Uganda’s growing problem of mob justice.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Courts, Police, Justice, and Bribery
- Political Geography:
- Uganda and Africa
17635. Corruption Crossroads? Rising Perceptions of Graft Weaken Citizen Trust, Threaten Botswana’s Democratic Standing
- Author:
- Thomas Isbell and Batlang Seabo
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Afrobarometer
- Abstract:
- Corruption is widely considered one of the greatest impediments to sustainable development in African countries (United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, 2016; Bratton & Gyimah-Boadi, 2016). Corruption hinders macro-economic growth by weakening governance structures and diluting the positive effects of investments. At the micro level, corruption can trap the poorest, who are least likely to have alternatives to state provision of services, in a downward spiral (Peiffer & Rose, 2014). Botswana has long been considered one of Africa’s least corrupt countries and top performers in democratic practice and good governance. But while Transparency International’s (2019) Corruption Perceptions Index continues to rank Botswana as best on the continent, other observers have questioned this reputation (Mogalakwe & Nyamnjoh, 2017; Good, 2017). Allegations have focused on, among other things, high-level corruption in military procurement contracts under former President Ian Khama, close ties between members of the ruling party and the agricultural sector, and charges that well-connected suspects are often cleared by the courts (Motlogelwa & Civillini, 2016; Konopo, 2017; Good, 2017; Norad, 2011; Sebudubudu 2014; Gasennelwe, 2018). Recent corruption scandals have reached the highest levels of government, including the alleged looting of the National Petroleum Fund (Kgalemang, 2019; Motshegwa, Mutonono, & Mikazhu, 2019), and are still before courts of law (Shuma, 2020). In this paper we use Afrobarometer survey data to explore citizens’ perceptions of corruption in Botswana. We find that far more people see corruption increasing than decreasing and that perceptions of corruption in the Presidency and Parliament have risen sharply over the past decade. Fewer Batswana approve of how the government is handling the anti-corruption fight, and while many believe ordinary people can help fight corruption, a majority say that people risk retaliation if they report corruption to the authorities. A correlation analysis suggests that perceptions of corruption, especially in the Presidency, are strongly associated with less popular trust in public institutions and less satisfaction with democracy.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Governance, Democracy, and Citizenship
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Botswana
17636. PP67: COVID-19 in Africa - Vulnerabilities and Assets for an Effective Response
- Author:
- Robert Mattes, Carolyn Logan, E. Gyimah-Boadi, and George Ellison
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Afrobarometer
- Abstract:
- Not only did the COVID-19 disease arrive on Africa’s shores (and at its airports) later than in Asia, Europe, and North America (Loembé et al., 2020), but for months the numbers of infections and deaths also appeared to remain relatively low. As of early August, the continent had experienced more than 1 million confirmed cases and 23,000 deaths (Africa CDC, 2020), though these figures were increasing rapidly. At this point, the causes behind Africa’s comparatively low initial numbers are not completely clear. One reason may be that early and decisive responses on the part of many African governments prevented the virus from gaining an easy foothold (Beech, Rubin, Kurmanaev, & MacLean, 2020; Hirsch, 2020; Levinson, 2020; Moore, 2020; Loembé et al., 2020). Indeed, according to the International Center for Not-for-Profit Law (2020), 46 African countries took some form of official action – in the form of new legislation or executive orders and decrees – restricting or banning travel and public gatherings, enforcing quarantines, or in some cases imposing full “lockdowns.” But Africa, somewhat paradoxically, may also have benefited from a range of structural factors, such as the continent’s relatively limited international exposure, its relatively low rates of intra- and inter-state air travel (Marbot, 2020), a generally hot and humid climate, relatively lower levels of population density and urbanization (De Waal, 2020; Marbot, 2020), and its substantially younger populations (Binding, 2020). It may have also profited from cultural factors, such as the fact that older people tend to remain with their families, rather than being institutionalized in retirement homes (Marbot, 2020), though this also has consequences for residential density, or that it has a more collectivist, less individualistic culture, which, according to recent research, may make COVID-19 interventions more effective (Frey, Presidente, & Chen, 2020). Yet most public health experts remain wary, and still expect significant further transmission of the virus across the continent, requiring drastic public health responses and interventions, especially where governments eased initial restrictions and lockdowns. Indeed, some officials have expressed concerns that Africa’s low numbers merely reflect very low rates of testing (Sly, 2020) and even, in some countries such as Tanzania, deliberate under-reporting (BBC, 2020). Some press reports have described instances where local reports of death rates bear little relation to official data (MacLean, 2020; York, 2020). These concerns appear well-founded given that community transmission is now present in all African countries and the number of infections increased by 50%, and deaths by 22%, in the last two weeks of July (World Health Organization, 2020). And officials at the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention have warned that Africa could well become the next epicenter of the pandemic (Loembé et al., 2020). If, as these events suggest, early interventions in African countries successfully erected a wall that kept the virus at bay, albeit temporarily, how well prepared are these countries if and when the virus penetrates their initial defenses? A wealth of Afrobarometer survey data suggests that Africans are especially vulnerable, in part due to lack of access to clean water and adequate health care (Gyimah-Boadi & Logan, 2020a; Logan, Howard, & Gyimah-Boadi, 2020). In this paper, we attempt to take the issue of vulnerability a step further by developing a more fine-grained approach, using insights from public health to examine different dimensions and components of vulnerability (Morrell, 2018). Specifically, we develop three inter-connected indices intended to capture the extent to which Africans might 1) run a heightened “risk of exposure to infection,” 2) face a heightened “susceptibility to illness” (once infected), and 3) face a “lack of resilience” (to recover once they become ill). In addition, a fourth index of “lockdown readiness” estimates the proportion of people who are more (or less) likely to be able to withstand the most severe forms of government health interventions, i.e. lockdowns or “shelter in place” orders, We then demonstrate how cross-country variations in the extent of exposure and susceptibility, and in the degree to which people are prepared for a lockdown, might help us better understand policy choices that African governments have made, and the extent to which these interventions were able to achieve desired reductions in mobility and contact. Finally, we briefly explore some of the soft assets that governments can bring to the table, such as legitimacy and trust, that may help increase compliance with restrictions on mobility, especially in countries we have identified as least able to tolerate lockdowns.
- Topic:
- Governance, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Africa
17637. Africa’s Digital Divide and the Promise of E-learning
- Author:
- Matthias Krönke
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Afrobarometer
- Abstract:
- According to UNESCO (2020), approximately 1.2 billion students and youth worldwide are affected by school and university closures because of the COVID-19 pandemic. To adjust to these new circumstances, governments must develop innovative solutions to ensure inclusive learning opportunities during this period of unprecedented educational disruption. This is especially true in African countries, where despite recent progress traditional education has faced infrastructural challenges and struggled to develop the human resources necessary to address students’ educational needs (Krönke & Olan’g, 2020; United Nations, 2019; UNESCO Institute of Statistics, 2016. This policy paper uses Afrobarometer survey data to look at digital infrastructure, the availability of digital devices at the household level, and digital literacy among African adults. While rates of digital literacy among children are likely to differ, it is important to understand these dynamics among adults for at least two reasons. First, adults are likely to shape children’s access to and experience with technology. Second, understanding current levels of access to devices and levels of digital literacy among adults provides a baseline against which future assessments can measure progress over time. Survey findings from Afrobarometer Round 7 (2016/2018) show a substantial digital divide both across and within countries, reflected in uneven access to resources such as electricity and unequal access to and use of smartphones and computers. The results suggest that government efforts to redress widespread inequalities need to be increased drastically to avoid the widening of an education gap among their citizens. The paper also discusses the potential benefits of providing smartphones and computers to those who currently do not have access to such devices.
- Topic:
- Education, Infrastructure, Inequality, Digital Economy, and Digitalization
- Political Geography:
- Africa
17638. Democratic Dividend: The Road to Quality Education in Africa
- Author:
- Matthias Krönke
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Afrobarometer
- Abstract:
- Education is a powerful tool to fight poverty, enable upward socioeconomic mobility, and empower people to live healthier lives. But while the global adult literacy rate continues to increase, from 81% in 2000 to 86% in 2018 (World Bank, 2019), the challenge of access to quality education remains particularly severe in Africa. Even before the COVID-19 crisis, globally one out of five children aged 6-17 years were not in school; more than half of these children live in sub-Saharan Africa. Additionally, many African pupils attend schools that are inadequately equipped, creating a difficult learning environment. For example, more than half of the schools in sub-Saharan Africa do not have access to basic drinking water, handwashing facilities, the Internet, or computers (United Nations, 2019). COVID-19 may exacerbate these challenges as pupils lose school time, unequal access to online learning heightens inequalities, and health care and social-safety costs and economic losses put pressure on limited resources. Africans are aware of education challenges. Across 34 African countries surveyed by Afrobarometer between late 2016 and late 2018, one in five respondents (21%) cited education as one of the most important problems their governments should address, placing it among citizens’ top five priorities (Coulibaly, Silwé, & Logan, 2018). Not surprisingly, younger people placed substantially greater emphasis on education than their elders. At a global level, the United Nations (UN) has highlighted the importance of quality education by including it in its Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). SDG 4 calls for governments to “ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all.” To this end, the UN outlines specific targets to be achieved by 2030, including ensuring that “all youth and a substantial proportion of adults, both men and women, achieve literacy and numeracy.” An important step toward this goal is that by 2030, all girls and boys should be able to “complete free, equitable and quality primary and secondary education” (United Nations, 2019). Many African governments have made important commitments to universal education. Of the 34 countries surveyed by Afrobarometer in 2016/2018, 33 have made school attendance compulsory (for periods ranging from five to 11 years), and 33 provide free primary education. (See Appendix Table A.2 for details.) Many governments also commit substantial portions of their yearly budgets to improving education. For example, in Côte d’Ivoire, eSwatini, Ghana, Malawi, Senegal, Tunisia, and Zimbabwe, more than 25% of total government expenditures go to education (World Bank, 2020). Afrobarometer surveys point to slow but steady progress as fewer Africans go without formal education and more attend school beyond the primary grades. But in some countries, two-thirds of adults still have no formal schooling, and significant gender gaps continue to disadvantage girls and women. Overall, just a slim majority of Africans think their government is doing a good job on meeting educational needs. Factors that contribute to these evaluations include whether citizens find it easy to obtain school services and whether they think schools are transparent about their budgets and responsive to reports of teacher misconduct. More fundamentally, our analysis finds that more democratic countries are seen as better able to provide public education. Citizens are more likely to be satisfied with government performance on education if immediate avenues of transparency and accountability at the school level are embedded in a broader political system that encourages these qualities.
- Topic:
- Education, Poverty, Democracy, and Inequality
- Political Geography:
- Africa
17639. Lived Poverty on the Rise: Decade of Living-Standard Gains Ends in Africa
- Author:
- Robert Mattes
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Afrobarometer
- Abstract:
- Economic destitution – whether measured as the frequency with which people go without basic necessities or as the proportion of people who live on less than $1.90 a day – declined steadily in Africa between 2005 and 2015. However, the findings of Afrobarometer Round 7 surveys, conducted in 34 African countries between late 2016 and late 2018, demonstrate that improvements in living standards have come to a halt and “lived poverty” is once again on the rise. To prevent squandering hard-won gains in Africans’ living standards, the data point to the necessity of a renewed commitment by citizens, governments, and international donors to defending democracy and expanding service-delivery infrastructure. Key findings Between 2005 and 2015, Afrobarometer surveys tracked a steady improvement in the living conditions of the average African. Measured as the frequency with which people go without a basket of basic necessities (food, clean water, health care, heating fuel, and cash income), “lived poverty” dropped in a sustained fashion over this period – a trend matched by consumption-based estimates of poverty by the World Bank. The most recent Afrobarometer surveys, however, suggest that Africa is in danger of squandering these gains in living standards. While the citizens of most African countries are still doing better than they were in 2005/2006, deprivation of basic necessities – captured by our Lived Poverty Index – has increased in about half of surveyed countries since 2015. The trend is similar for “severe lived poverty,” the extent to which people experience frequent shortages of basic necessities. Lived poverty varies widely across the continent. At one extreme, people rarely experience deprivation in Mauritius. At the other, the average person went without several basic necessities several times in the preceding year in Guinea and Gabon. In general, lived poverty is highest in Central and West Africa, and lowest in North Africa. Lived poverty also varies widely within societies. Reflecting the legacies of the “urban bias” of successive post-independence governments, rural residents continue to endure lived poverty far more frequently than those who live in suburbs and cities. A multilevel, multivariate regression analysis of more than 40,000 respondents across Africa reveals that people who live in urban areas, those who have higher levels of education, and those who have a job (especially in a middle-class occupation) are less likely to live in poverty, as are younger people and men. But besides personal characteristics, we locate even more important factors at the level of government and the state. First, Africans who live in countries with longer experiences of democratic government are less likely to live in poverty. Second, people who live in communities where the state has installed key development infrastructure such as paved roads, electricity grids, and piped-water systems are less likely to go without basic necessities. Indeed, the combined efforts of African governments and international donors in building development infrastructure, especially in rural areas, appears to have played a major role in bringing down levels of poverty – at least until recently.
- Topic:
- Poverty, Infrastructure, Inequality, and Local
- Political Geography:
- Africa
17640. Understanding the First and Second Digital Divides in Rural Bangladesh
- Author:
- Muhammad Shahadat, Hossain Siddiquee, and Saiful Md. Islam
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Brac University
- Abstract:
- Differences in individuals’ access to internet infrastructure refer to the first-level digital divide, whereas differences in an individual’s online skills and internet usage refer to the second-level digital divide. Bangladesh is a country with a clear-cut digital divide between rural and urban areas, which is primarily caused by income and wealth inequalities. But the uneven distribution of information and communications technologies (ICTs) between rural and urban areas contributes to the inequality in economic and social development. Therefore, the Government of Bangladesh (GoB) is taking initiatives to address the rural-urban divide in socio-economic development through the elimination of rural-urban disparities in the first- and second-level digital divides; this has become a key issue, as well as a major challenge for policymakers, practitioners, and academicians. The present research study uses the theory of digital divide stemming from a comparative phenomenon of different forms of inequalities and aims to generate meaningful insights about the spectrum of individual internet access and online skills (i.e. the first- and second-level digital divides) in the setting of rural Bangladesh, where there is a dearth of data as well as a research gap.
- Topic:
- Development, Infrastructure, Internet, and Rural
- Political Geography:
- Bangladesh and South Asia
17641. COVID-19’s Impact on Bangladesh Economy
- Author:
- Muhammad Shahadat, Hossain Siddiquee, and Avinno Faruk
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Brac University
- Abstract:
- This BIGD study examines the impact of COVID-19’s impact on the major economic and financial indicators of the economy of Bangladesh, including production, wages, price levels, advances, bills, investments, remittances and foreign trade, using the secondary data published by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), Bangladesh Bank (BB), and the Ministry of Finance (MoF). In addition to the recent impact of the global economic meltdown, Bangladesh also experienced severe demand contraction in the local economy; this exacerbated the overall economic crisis of the country. Considering the duration and severity of COVID-19, we examine its impact on major economic and financial indicators of the Bangladesh economy and recommended policy responses for recovery, based on the analysis. Both domestic and international demands declined due to the outbreak and subsequent lockdown, and, thus, producers responded by lowering output to minimize the loss, especially in the manufacturing sectors. Findings reveal that nominal Wage Rate Index (WRI) in the industry and service sectors fell in recent times, which now appear to be recovering. The national inflation rate has not been affected much based on point-to-point changes. Food inflation fell in May 2020 and stood at 5.09 percent, but it appears to have risen recently. Non-food inflation rates have been falling over the last six months from April-September 2020. Prudent measures should include constant monitoring and adapting to the latest developments in major trading partners and host countries to mitigate the economic losses caused. Bank credit would play a key role in the ongoing and upcoming recovery process, as the government has opted for a credit-led stimulus package. However, as the virus is yet to be contained and an effective vaccine for it is yet to be made available in Bangladesh everywhere and to everyone, its economic repercussions are likely to continue in the foreseeable future.
- Topic:
- Development, Economy, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Bangladesh and South Asia
17642. Qualitative Exploration The End User Context of BCC Materials on COVID-19 Guidelines and Handwashing
- Author:
- Tanvir Shatil, Sonia Afrin, Swagatam Saha, Dipanwita Ghosh, and Md. Kamruzzaman
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Brac University
- Abstract:
- As a partner of the “Hygiene and Behaviour Change Coalition (HBCC),” BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD) initiated a rapid formative research to identify gaps in people’s existing hygiene knowledge and practice, as well as opportunities for intervention. In doing so, the study aimed to help BRAC design and develop new Behavioral Change and Communication (BCC) materials that can effectively address people’s particular hygiene behaviour during the COVID-19 pandemic. The two specific objectives of this study included investigating how users perceive the awareness messages and translate them into their everyday behaviour, and finding out the facilitating factors and the barriers they face in following Coronavirus-related public health and social guidelines. We selected 30 different respondents from Dhaka and Khulna and conducted in-depth telephone interviews, online focus group discussions (FGDs) through video conferencing, and shadow and visual content observation (e.g. photographs and videos). It was revealed that respondents have different levels of knowledge and practices including correct, partially correct and misconception on three domains: hand washing, mask use and social distancing. The study also revealed the personal and structural barriers to comply with the guidelines.
- Topic:
- Development, COVID-19, and Hygiene
- Political Geography:
- Bangladesh and South Asia
17643. The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Small and Medium Enterprises in Bangladesh
- Author:
- Asadul Islam, Atiya Rahman, and Rafia Nisat
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Brac University
- Abstract:
- Like other economic players, the novel pandemic severely hit small businesses—the larger source of growth and employment but also the most vulnerable sector—by disrupting national and international business networks, supply chain, and demand. To understand the evolving state of small enterprises during pre, par, and post-lockdown periods, BIGD in collaboration with Monash University, Australia conducted a survey on small enterprises, mostly light-engineering firms, and young workers across 18 districts in Bangladesh. The study finds that lockdown measures caused the majority of small enterprises to shut down, and during the early period of relaxing the lockdown, one-third of the enterprises were operating at limited capacity. Demand drop and the burden of fixed costs to run the businesses were the prominent reasons behind the drastic fall in profit. As a result, workers were losing jobs and the gender gap was widening, because female labour-intensive work (i.e. beauty parlour, tailoring) was affected harder. Other findings of concern include the emerging vulnerabilities for the enterprises with lower endowment and poor access to government stimulus packages and other financial support. The study emphasises on the importance of concrete targeting criteria and support delivery platforms to assist more vulnerable enterprises. Finally, it highlights that the enterprises that received BRAC’s intensive training on occupational health and safety (OHS), along with business training and financial linkages, made double profit compared to their counterparts. However, the absolute amount of profit was substantially lower for both groups, compared to their pre-COVID profit, indicating the importance of scaling up such intensive training to create more resilient enterprises in such crises.
- Topic:
- Development, Employment, Economy, Business, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Bangladesh and South Asia
17644. Digital Literacy of Rural Households in Bangladesh
- Author:
- Md. Wasel Shadat
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Brac University
- Abstract:
- As more and more public and private sector services are being digitized to make them more accessible to citizens, digital literacy is becoming an increasingly essential skill needed to reap the fullest benefits from these services. Without people possessing the necessary digital competency, the benefits of information and communication technology (ICT)-driven public initiatives will not reach out to all the people of a country. The same holds true for Bangladesh, which aspires to become a fully digitized nation. The objective of this research is to a) explore the current state of digital literacy in rural Bangladesh, b) investigate the determinants of digital literacy, and c) develop the first-ever digital literacy index (DLI) for Bangladesh, which we named “DLit_BIGD 1.0”.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Communications, Rural, and Digital Literacy
- Political Geography:
- Bangladesh and South Asia
17645. Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of COVID-19 and Policy Implications for Bangladesh
- Author:
- Sultan Hafeez Rahman, Abdur Razzaque, Jillur Rahman, and Wasel Bin Shadat
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Brac University
- Abstract:
- The COVID-19 pandemic is causing unprecedented health and economic crisis for global economies, including Bangladesh. The economic and social disruption caused by the pandemic as reflected in a massive loss of human life worldwide, drastic decline in economic activities and employment, huge pressure on public health and other support services, social and physical distancing, etc. has been devastating. Since the first confirmed case of infection in March 2020, Bangladesh, like many other countries, had to consider some extraordinary measures including, amongst others, closure of all educational institutions, enforcement of economic shutdown measures and gradual reopening of economic activities, rolling out a stimulus package for business enterprises, etc. This study is motivated by the fact that understanding the economywide impact of Covid-19 has been challenging in Bangladesh. Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model – a multi-region/multi-country computable general equilibrium comparative static framework – is utilized in this study to explore the potential impacts of COVID-19 induced disruptions for Bangladesh under three different alternative – low-shock, medium shock and high-shock scenarios. It outlines the transmission mechanisms through which the Bangladesh economy is being affected to assess the impact on major macroeconomic variables and sectoral outputs. These results are then incorporated into the social accounting matrix for Bangladesh to simulate the likely income and poverty effects for various types of households. This study also explores the likely impact of government support measures through the stimulus package in mitigating the adverse consequences.
- Topic:
- Economy, Public Policy, COVID-19, Health Crisis, and Socioeconomics
- Political Geography:
- Bangladesh and South Asia
17646. Mapping China’s Global Future: Playing Ball or Rocking the Boat?
- Author:
- Axel Berkofsky and Giulia Sciorati
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
- Abstract:
- China’s future role on the global stage hinges upon a mixture of strengths and weaknesses. Beijing’s meteoric rise in economic terms has been coupled by increasing military expenditures and a more assertive foreign policy stance. But the country is also facing a potential backlash, exemplified by protests in Hong Kong, while it remains to be seen whether (and how) the governance of the coronavirus outbreak will affect China's image abroad. This report sets out to explore some of the key aspects of China’s regional and global foreign policy. It analyses the core tenets that motivate and shape China’s preferences, ideals, and actions, and explores how they interact with its partners, allies, and rivals.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Governance, Military Spending, COVID-19, and Future
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
17647. The Future of Migration to Europe
- Author:
- Matteo Villa
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
- Abstract:
- Even as migration pressure at the Greek border is on the rise, the 2013-2017 “migration crisis” is increasingly in the past. Yet, EU countries still struggle to come up with solutions to foster safe, orderly, and regular migration pathways. Europeans continue to look in the rear-view mirror. This Report is an attempt to reverse the perspective, by taking a glimpse into the future of migration to Europe. What are the structural trends underlying migration flows to Europe, and how are they going to change over the next two decades? How does migration interact with specific policy fields, such as development, border management, and integration? And what are the policies and best practices to manage migration in a more coherent and evidence-based way?
- Topic:
- Migration, European Union, Regional Integration, and Borders
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Europe
17648. Latin America and the New Global Order
- Author:
- Antonella Mori
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
- Abstract:
- Amid the coronavirus pandemic, global geopolitical relations are being shaken to their roots, and Latin America is no different. The region is experiencing new transformations in political, economic, and societal terms. In turn, all these rapid changes are having an impact on how Latin American countries shape their own foreign policies, and on how they adapt to the challenges of an increasingly multipolar world. How are the US, China, and the EU competing in terms of political alliances and economic projection on the Latin American region? And how are some of the main Latin American countries (namely Brazil, Mexico, and Venezuela) contributing to shape these new regional dynamics?
- Topic:
- Politics, European Union, Economy, Strategic Competition, COVID-19, and Multipolarity
- Political Geography:
- China, Brazil, Latin America, Venezuela, Mexico, and United States of America
17649. The Balkans: Old, New Instabilities
- Author:
- Giorgio Fruscione
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
- Abstract:
- Despite the coronavirus pandemic, 2020 could be a crucial year for the Western Balkans. For over twenty years, the region has been stuck in a never-ending transition. Politics, economics, and geopolitics are still falling prey to old and new sources of instability. With the path towards the EU integration still uncertain, today many governments are marked by autocratic stances and international actors strive for a bigger say in the region. NATO is expanding to the Balkans, but regional security still depends on foreign soft power and influence. And while recipes for economic transition focus mainly on foreign direct investments that often lack transparency, Balkan societies are losing their citizens to substantial emigration. What are the factors contributing to the Western Balkans instability in the age of Covid-19? Will the region be the ground for renewed geopolitical competition? How can the Balkans exit the transition and find a sustainable balance between all these tensions?
- Topic:
- NATO, European Union, COVID-19, and Instability
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Balkans
17650. Between Politics and Finance: Hong Kong's "Infinity War"?
- Author:
- Alessia Amighini
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
- Abstract:
- As the Covid-19 pandemic strikes hard, protests in Hong Kong appear to have abated. Distant seem the days when yellow umbrellas and balaclavas saturated global media. And yet, just like at the start of what has now come to be known as the 2019 “global protest wave”, Hong Kong remains at the frontline of political contestation worldwide. The protests against the 2019 Hong Kong anti-extradition law unearthed one of the main points of contention between Hong Kong and mainland China. Through the protests, China’s increasingly assertive stance has found a counterweight, revealing how important the city is to Beijing. Apart from Hong Kong’s role as a major global trade and financial area, China’s actions towards Hong Kong might also serve as a litmus test for Beijing’s ability to mediate and pacify its neighbourhood. Meanwhile, the Covid-19 pandemic risks further heightening tensions between the two. What makes Hong Kong special? To what extent have the protests exacerbated or eased over time? How will the city’s role in mainland China’s outward-looking plans change, if the protests continue?
- Topic:
- Politics, Finance, Protests, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Hong Kong